PacificDisc recently posted this in the Insider's thread:

I have not confirmed this, nor can I state that only SONY are producing BD50s. What I can state is that none of the usual suspects are producing these discs in this country. There are a number of reasons why, not least of which is yield problems - making these lines very expensive to operate.

This brings back up the issue of BD-50 replication. Back in May, there was much ado about the 2.5M BD-50's having been shipped. While that sounded impressive, Alex Millians had this to say in that thread: (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=10578605&postcount=92)

What exactly is DADC hoping to achieve by announcing to their world their ship count for BD50 to date? Good gravy...even if they hadn't turned on any new lines past the 6 they had up in November 2006 (they have), that's a pitiful number to be throwing around given their yield claims and cycle time claims. I've said it before, I'll say it again: either the line uptime average is in the toilet or they're not running the machines full bore...the latter can't be the case, as they wouldn't have added more lines and be contuining to do so to meet demand (even factoring in the short runs typical these days). My predicate logic skills are a bit rusty, but, well...


And then later this: (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=10615526&postcount=171)

Industry standard uptime: 90% (assumption)
Cycle time: 5.0s (discussed)
Yield: 80% (discussed)
Lines: 12 (minimum in use at DADC as of April 2007)

That's about 4.4 million discs/month. A month. As in start spinning 4/1/07 and stop 5/3/07 and you've got your 5 million discs. And one hell of a press release.

Again, even accounting for short runs, I can't help but wonder at my uptime assumption.

Perhaps there's an error in the formula.

Or perhaps BD50 violates the laws of mathematics.

Or perhaps uptime is in the toilet. Heck, even at 50% uptime, the above setup would yield 5 million discs in just 2 months.

Some debate ensued, and I tried to see if I could confirm the "12 lines" comment but could find nowhere that DADC actually stated what they had running.

So it would seem that PacificDisc's current comments bear out that what Alex described several months ago still would seem to be the case.

A few questions:

1) Can anybody confirm how many BD-50 lines DADC does have running?
2) Are there any known cycle-time/yield stats available?

Note that the premise of this thread is NOT "Are BD-50's being made in any quantity?". It IS "What level of cost and effort is behind the manufactured BD-50 numbers?".

If you can get it to work right now (I can't), the thread entitled:
Costs Per Disc: Blu-ray vs HD DVD (Actual Costs)

...has some discussion on the subject. Alex actually posts in that one as well using some chopped-up logic concerning Singulus and line proliferation, but beyond Sony DADC the US is having two additional replication plants for BD50 come online this year.

As for Alex's indignation in general on the subject, I think Sony was making that press release because it represented a number higher than HD DVDs own pressed discs-to-date figures, not because it had anything to do with showing the capacity of the lines. Are we then to derive figures for HD DVD's "yield issues?" Of course not. Obviously Sony is not going to be pressing millions of discs a month without the demand being there first - I think that's just common sense. What would they even press in those instances?

As for your two specific questions, I would just take the PR at face value on that one (except to say 'operational' vs active), and I doubt we get too much on the later that's a straight-up answer.

Pure FUD, heres the facts:

The cost for blu ray vs hd dvd disks.
http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-revealed/111/
http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-analyzed-again/113/


New BRD manufacturing capacity. This new independent plant can press 3 million disks a month. BTW its owned by GE, Universals parent company, should Blu Ray be worried ?
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/8/prweb545244.htm

^ Sorry I didn't see anything in that article that says or even hints about that company being owned by GE, could you point me to the correct line.

The only thing I saw was GE supplying the necessary plastic resources and technical support for their plant to start producing. A B2B relationship.

Anyway, the customer is paying good money. GE doing business with BRT does not necessarily mean anything for Universal.

Back to the topic, from the PR attached, it seems that only BD-25 is mass produced by independent replicators. BD-50 seems to be still very much a Sony DADC and Panasonic's PDMC-level stuff. On the contrary, i'm seeing independents like InfoDisc, Sonopress and QOL being quite prominent in producing HD-30s in Europe, in addition to replicators found in Japan and North America.

Here's the latest rundown of BD25/50 replicators:

http://www.emedialive.com/articles/readarticle.aspx?articleid=11425#ixl

Pure FUD, heres the facts:

The cost for blu ray vs hd dvd disks.
http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-revealed/111/
http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-analyzed-again/113/


New BRD manufacturing capacity. This new independent plant can press 3 million disks a month. BTW its owned by GE, Universals parent company, should Blu Ray be worried ?
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/8/prweb545244.htm

*sigh*. I guess even my note at the end didn't help.

Only one of your 3 articles even refers to BD50, and there are no cycle/yield info, or even who the replicator is. It's been widely speculated that Sony was willing to susidize BD50 production, so price is not a direct indicator of cost.

Here's the latest rundown of BD25/50 replicators:

http://www.emedialive.com/articles/readarticle.aspx?articleid=11425#ixl

Very good link. Thanks.

So it looks like Sony, Panasonic (which has been talked about as a pilot line for a while now), and Technicolor.

Infodisc is future tense, Cinram isn't disclosing what they do, and Deluxe only does check discs.

I wish we had some stats on the lines.

Cinram is onboard for BD50 - that much was already revealed/discussed in the Insiders thread at some point (though I think the post may have been deleted).

Very good link. Thanks.

So it looks like Sony, Panasonic (which has been talked about as a pilot line for a while now), and Technicolor.

Infodisc is future tense, Cinram isn't disclosing what they do, and Deluxe only does check discs.

I wish we had some stats on the lines.

Check again. Cinram is also in the list for BD50.

*sigh*. I guess even my note at the end didn't help.

Only one of your 3 articles even refers to BD50, and there are no cycle/yield info, or even who the replicator is. It's been widely speculated that Sony was willing to susidize BD50 production, so price is not a direct indicator of cost.

I included the first link because it was relevant to BRD replication costs and is the first part of the article.

Replication is contracted out by the studios, studios are are given a price and
a product is delivered, yield rate will factor into the price. And from the price quoted in the article it is not much higher that SL BR at higher quantities. Isn't that how it works ?

Speculated! By who, why, and based on what. Got any info to back up the speculation ?

Check again. Cinram is also in the list for BD50.

Yeah, but the notation is: "Replicator manufactures format but does not disclose factory-level information"

So I'm not sure what their status really is.

I included the first link because it was relevant to BRD replication costs and is the first part of the article.

Replication is contracted out by the studios, studios are are given a price and
a product is delivered, yield rate will factor into the price. And from the price quoted in the article it is not much higher that SL BR at higher quantities. Isn't that how it works ?

Speculated! By who, why, and based on what. Got any info to back up the speculation ?

Oof. I'm not digging thru 2+ years of archives... much of that discussion likely pre-dates your registration here. Feel free though.

If you do have line stats (which is what I asked for), then that would be useful.

Thanks.

Yeah, but the notation is: "Replicator manufactures format but does not disclose factory-level information"

So I'm not sure what their status really is.

This is standard practice in manufacturing. You do not disclose cycletimes, yields, etc typically deemed trade secrets, as once they are disclosed you can not claim damages against competitors who may illegally gain this information. Best Practices etc to improve production rates are typically dealt in the same way. No one who actually works for a company will actually disclose this information in public. Thats the way trade secrets work, and for a lot of these methodologies you do not want patent protection as this means full disclosure.

Yeah, but the notation is: "Replicator manufactures format but does not disclose factory-level information"

So I'm not sure what their status really is.

Did they update that page because the notation now says:

"X - Replicator manufactures format but does not disclose factory locations."

Rick

Did they update that page because the notation now says:

"X - Replicator manufactures format but does not disclose factory locations."

Rick


Hmm, yeah. I cut-n-pasted for my previous reply. Odd.

Oof. I'm not digging thru 2+ years of archives... much of that discussion likely pre-dates your registration here. Feel free though.

If you do have line stats (which is what I asked for), then that would be useful.

Thanks.

Hey, I didn't mean to be rude, its just I see a lot of unsubstantiated info lately, I may have sounded more harsh than I intended.

I think that part of the issue in getting data like this, is both primary parties don't want the other to know what their true capabilities are.

Just a curious question. If lines from DADC can produce 4.4 Million BD50 discs a month what exactly are all these other guys jumping in for? Since inception they have sold 2.2 Million BD discs (total not just BD50). Figure maybe an extra million or 2 in the channel for distribution and you have almost reached one months worth of discs..But they have had this since apparently April? I realize that they have to make PS3 discs as well but I can't imagine there are that many of those out there (since they are all BD25 AFAIK). Why exactly would anyone shell out the serious cash for a BD line at all at this point?

BD-50 Replication Status?

Its expensive!

Why exactly would anyone shell out the serious cash for a BD line at all at this point?

Well, because they see the market growing obviously.

would paramount and dreamworks announcement hit the nerves or potential new BD entrants? i mean what if Warner and new line make similar announcements? Sony can fall back to PS3. what are non Sony BD replication plans are going to fall back to? the plants can only do BD.

Hey, I didn't mean to be rude, its just I see a lot of unsubstantiated info lately, I may have sounded more harsh than I intended.

I think that part of the issue in getting data like this, is both primary parties don't want the other to know what their true capabilities are.

No worries.... it is indeed hard to get the inside scoop here. The idea that BD50's were being subsidized was proffered by a few folks, probably chief amongst them Amir M. a VP at Microsoft. A few other folks chimed in with a few facts that seemed to support this, and I don't really ever recall seeing it denied.

But it is allegation. And BD50 facts seem awfully under-wraps. On guy her e(Alex Millians) has been able to.. .uh.. "liberate" certain facts from some sources that the BDA seems to believe are private... and they tend to corroborate the idea that cycle/yield for 50's are rough. Read that entire thread I linked to earlier from the beginning if you'd like.