Audiophiles are known to be spec-driven to the point of obsession. That results in very expensive equipment and limited media choices. BD appeals to many in this niche because it more easily carries PCM tracks than HD DVD.

It appears a class of videophiles support BD because of disk specifications which they allege result in superior pictures.

Spec-driven enthusiasts don't mind spending more money on equipment, but that separates them from the mass market, where price is more important than impercievable differences resulting from specifications. If the mass market does not adopt BD becasue of price, the BD market will become niche, and movie choice will dry up.

BD is also attractive to another niche, the gamer market, at least those who choose the PS3.

BDA members should concentrate on price and performance rather than specifications.

Blu-ray is no more at risk of becoming niche than is HD DVD. As for the rest of the post, not sure I follow the train of thought. The lag-time in BD standalone pricing vs HD DVDs own standalones is measured in months, not years. There is a floor for player pricing that both formats will reach sooner or later, and it is likely the format war will still be ongoing at that time.

Yes it will, because it is included in HDM. To quote an avid poster on this forum (roughly)

"HDM is an evolutionary product, DVD was a revolutionary product."

It will take too much time for an evoulutionary product to completely replace a revolutionary one. There will be something better before enough time passes for that to happen.

Neither BDA members nor BD fans make price their priority to help HDM get adopted. Their mantra to get adoption - we need one format to die - the antithesis of lower prices. OTOH the HD DVD side has always made price a key part of success.

BD supporters who tout specs as the reason to buy BD are appealing to niche markets, and will make it wind up there.

Sony told the studios who believed it that the format war would be over by now. It isn't and BDA hasn't any price strategy to fend off the mass market purchasing HD will enjoy this coming season.

Neither BDA members nor BD fans make price their priority to help HDM get adopted. Their mantra to get adoption - we need one format to die - the antithesis of lower prices. OTOH the HD DVD side has always made price a key part of success.

BD supporters who tout specs as the reason to buy BD are appealing to niche markets, and will make it wind up there.

Sony told the studios who believed it that the format war would be over by now. It isn't and BDA hasn't any price strategy to fend off the mass market purchasing HD will enjoy this coming season.

The price "strategy" is as easy as lowering prices - like I said, months, not years. As for the studios, plenty of what BD is, is a vehicle of the desires of both Disney and FOX to begin with. So long as Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD, don't expect a switch. Rather, as with both Disney and FOX recently, an apparent realization that if they want BD to come out on top they need to perform is seeming to take root.

Not sure what HD DVD fans are complaining about either when viewed through your eyes; afterall, Toshiba's rocket-sled ride to lower prices has only been premised on the competition from the Blu side via the PS3.

Blu-ray is losing support. HD DVD is gaining support. Yes, Blu-ray will become a niche format and HD DVD will be the format for the masses.

I think both formats will last for some time, but there is a real possibility of one becoming niche while the other goes mainstream. I could see a scenario where HD DVD hits it big and BD becomes a niche format. Maybe they will ditch the extras (since they wont work on all players anyway) and just do superbit style hi-fi encodes. Even if HD DVD wins, you can bet Sony will continue to push it for a long time. I mean, they still make UMDs right?

The price "strategy" is as easy as lowering prices - like I said, months, not years. As for the studios, plenty of what BD is, is a vehicle of the desires of both Disney and FOX to begin with. So long as Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD, don't expect a switch. Rather, as with both Disney and FOX recently, an apparent realization that if they want BD to come out on top they need to perform is seeming to take root.

Not sure what HD DVD fans are complaining about either when viewed through your eyes; afterall, Toshiba's rocket-sled ride to lower prices has only been premised on the competition from the Blu side via the PS3.

I disagree. Tosh is not competing with the PS3. The PS3 is there because its also a game machine. If Tosh wants to keep HD DVD alive, they have to sell cheap razors to offset disk sales to a temporary lead given by a game machine. The BD CE standalone manufacturers have indicated no interest in producing "affordable" players, they're resting on their "specs".

I disagree. Tosh is not competing with the PS3. The PS3 is there because its also a game machine. If Tosh wants to keep HD DVD alive, they have to sell cheap razors to offset disk sales to a temporary lead given by a game machine. The BD CE standalone manufacturers have indicated no interest in producing "affordable" players, they're resting on their "specs".

Wayne suffice to say that I think you're ignoring a lot of very real market conditions - conditions that I already stated, so I won't bother repeating. Suffice to say that your second and fourth sentences in the quoted paragraph are contradictory.

Slightly above niche is perfect for both formats IMO. We get all the titles but quality is still a primary concern. Once a format goes J6P you can forget about quality being a primary concern.

@OP,

What does this make HD DVD since it is being outsold 2:1 for the year and has less studio support? Face it. Both are going to be niche products, the question is will both or just one survive? The cheapest standalone HD DVD player are still $150 to $200 more than the cheapest upscaling DVD player and HD movies are usually $15+ dollars more than DVD's.

BD is a niche format today, as is HD DVD.

The correct questions are, will HD DVD become a mainstream format, will BD become a mainstream format, or will both become mainstream formats.

The answer to all three questions might well be 'No'.

BD supporters who tout specs as the reason to buy BD are appealing to niche markets, and will make it wind up there.


What about the BD fans that tout content?

Isn't the current Q4 title count 99 to 60 in favour of Blu-ray not counting Warner's non-combo re-issues?

Audiophiles are known to be spec-driven to the point of obsession.
Actually, Audiophiles tend to be anti-spec driven, preferring to trust their ears, not specs. Hence the proliferation of vacuum tubed amps, especially low powered SETs, along with Turntables and LPs.

That results in very expensive equipment and limited media choices.
Only CDs, LPs, and SACDs.

BD appeals to many in this niche because it more easily carries PCM tracks than HD DVD.
You may be right, but I find this odd. Most audiophiles tend to have separate systems for audio and HT, and look down their noses at video. Many/most have a loathing for surround sound.

It appears a class of videophiles support BD because of disk specifications which they allege result in superior pictures.
Agreed. Maybe they are Specophiles.


Spec-driven enthusiasts don't mind spending more money on equipment, but that separates them from the mass market, where price is more important than impercievable differences resulting from specifications.
I don't mind spending more on equipment, but I judge by my eyes and ears, not specs.

If the mass market does not adopt BD because of price, the BD market will become niche, and movie choice will dry up.
True, then BD would become the PS3 media, mostly for gamers.
J

@OP,

What does this make HD DVD since it is being outsold 2:1 for the year and has less studio support? Face it. Both are going to be niche products, the question is will both or just one survive? The cheapest standalone HD DVD player are still $150 to $200 more than the cheapest upscaling DVD player and HD movies are usually $15+ dollars more than DVD's.

Early adopters are going to be heavily weighted by "philes", who are not or who are less concerned with cost. Tosh had made price and performance an objective from day 1. BTW the local costco has the A1 at $249, and a selection of disks at $18.98.

We'll see if the artificial PS3 boost lasts through this year. It seems P/DW wern't impressed by what they saw so far, or what they think is coming.

Sticking with specs rather than price and performance leads to niche-dom

Option B) Blu-ray will be mainstream while HDDVD may attain niche status for those too cheap to pony up. :p

Maybe they are Specophiles.J
I agree, or specphiles, since the specs they are concerned with have not produced any consistent audio or visual improvements.

BD is a niche format today, as is HD DVD.

The correct questions are, will HD DVD become a mainstream format, will BD become a mainstream format, or will both become mainstream formats.

The answer to all three questions might well be 'No'.

Agree, think you can remove "might" from the sentence even. This war is now in a phase where it is killing both formats (well, it won't kill them, but it won't ever become mainstream and overtake DVD)

Beta, Betamax, Minidisc, Memorystick, Memorystick Pro, UMD give a good indication yes...

What about the BD fans that tout content?

Isn't the current Q4 title count 99 to 60 in favour of Blu-ray not counting Warner's non-combo re-issues?

Isn't it true that BD usually announces well beforehand while HD DVD typically announces releases much closer?

How come you don't announce who you work for here?

Isn't it true that BD usually announces well beforehand while HD DVD typically announces releases much closer?

....

Why spill the beans now when CEDIA is only weeks away.

BD is a niche format today, as is HD DVD.

The correct questions are, will HD DVD become a mainstream format, will BD become a mainstream format, or will both become mainstream formats.

The answer to all three questions might well be 'No'.

Agreed!

What about the BD fans that tout content?

Isn't the current Q4 title count 99 to 60 in favour of Blu-ray not counting Warner's non-combo re-issues?
Q4 is a long way away. Heck Transformers has not been officially announced, though we all know it will be out Q4.

Personally I like HD DVDs line up and it will just get better as time goes by.

Beta, Betamax, Minidisc, Memorystick, Memorystick Pro, UMD give a good indication yes...
Even a broken watch is correct twice a day. Sounds like it might be Sony's time for a winner. ;)

HD-DVD has been looking at things from a global perspective from day 1.

-> No region coding.

-> Chinese manufacturers for HD-DVD players. It takes time to transfer technology and it takes good planning and execution to do it well. You can't rush it. People who have studied Technology Management will concur.

-> Supporting local studios, independent studios to make it convenient for them to release on high definition format.

-> Pushing hard to bring the price of hardware down while the software price has been steady. The price of hardware has come down so this has been successful to an extent. Most currencies in the world are lower than the US Dollar except GBP, Euro, Bahrain Dinar. That in effect means higher conversion rate and $200 can be considered cheap in the US market but when looking at things globally and for the masses it may not be that cheap.


Blu-ray has taken a different approach:

-> Region coding from day 1 although the flop Samsung 1st generation BD player is available region free now in the Asia Pacific region for a mind-boggling US $1500! That's for you Disney. ;)

-> Using the PS3 as a launching vehicle for the format rather than focusing on the PS3 to be a pure gaming machine which is better than the highest selling game console in gaming history! They ignored the gaming side of it. Marketed the PS3 as a Blu-Ray vehicle with HDMI 1.3! Wrong approach. Wrong intention. Expected result.

-> I don't consider the BD players to be expensive at launch as they were $1000 or thereabout. DVD players were more expensive at launch. The mistake was not giving a low price stand-alone player option at around $600. The PS3 is a gaming console first and foremost unless Sony wants you to think otherwise.

-> The focus and drive has been purely on the North American market and Japan. The aim was to win over that market and the rest will follow. Once again a wrong approach IMO.


Blu-Ray has shaped their campaign on targetting a niche market while HD-DVD has been looking out globally. HD-DVD has weathered its fair share of storms and come out healthier rather than weaker. Their approach is more structured, more defined and looking out for the masses around the globe. It's the peoples format.


If all studios were neutral, there would be no Blu-Ray at this point. It would have been over a long time ago. Blu-Ray won't become a niche format because it already is a niche format.


HD-DVD will be the format of the masses. The natural extension of DVD and the logical jump to high definition media. Just let China and India get in on the act. That number is in billions. The buying power of millions in those countries is more in sync with HD-DVD prices for hardware. And the Chinese and Indian studios will pick the format that offers them HD at a lesser price with convenience. It's a matter of time.

Will Blu-Ray become a niche format?
Will HD-DVD become a niche format?

become?...

they both are...
and will remain...IMO

ken

SoC running MS software cranked out of China versus PS3 with a moving target - BD's specs. I love this war and it will last until the price of HDM gets in line with DVDs.

Re nitche, one will win. The studio's want the DRM.

Both niche, to bad the 2 primary format sponsors are the 2 primary hardware suppliers.

Only hope for mass adoption as it stands now is if Sony and Toshiba see the signs of mutual destruction, and make a good quality Universal player, together.:D

If all studios were neutral, there would be no Blu-Ray at this point. It would have been over a long time ago.

This rings true. Too true. They should have let the player manufacturers fight it out. Sony was the obvious spoiler with a foot in both areas.

Will Blu-Ray become a niche format?
yes...along with HD-DVD.

They should have let the player manufacturers fight it out.

All the player manufacturers except Toshiba DID choose to avoid the bunk of DVD Forum for high def and resoundingly chose Blu-ray. The only ones that have entertained the ideas of dual format were trying to find some fragment of added value to differentiate.

Isn't it true that BD usually announces well beforehand while HD DVD typically announces releases much closer?

How come you don't announce who you work for here?

If you'd like to know how to add a new server, change the date and time, change prices on your beers, cocktails, etc., on your Panasonic cash register then I can help out.

I don't "announce" that I work for Panasonic Canada because I don't have any info on Blu-ray players or Panasonic's future plans, so if I were to put that I work for Parasonic in my signature what good would come of it? Several PM's a day asking questions I have no answers to?

Whenever anyone asks I have no problem telling them what I do and who I work for.

Is there anything else you'd like to know?

A chipset insider has already strongly suggested that Chinese manufacturers are interested in BD. You're kidding yourself if you don't think there will soon be price parity.

That said, it pains me to see "enthusiasts" cheering for the lowest common denominator. Clearly being an early adopter does strange things to people's brains.

That said, it pains me to see "enthusiasts" cheering for the lowest common denominator. Clearly being an early adopter does strange things to people's brains.

It (early adopting) never used to be so controversial.

That's what happens when you bring the price of entry down...the masses think they are the experts and the 'science' goes out the window for price.

It (early adopting) never used to be so controversial.

That's what happens when you bring the price of entry down...the masses think they are the experts and the 'science' goes out the window for price.


Would you agree that the the PS3 is largely to blame for this?

Yes.

And plasma TVs.

And low standalone prices.

I'd rather those in dedicated rooms / HT enthusiasts had more of a hand in it.



We probably would've gotten anamorphic 2.35 media for one and less gamers and those looking to save a a couple hundred on a player help shape the next format. A sad truth is that if Blu Ray was priced at HD DVD's levels and HD DVD priced at Blu Ray's level, the majority here would be all over BLu Ray.

A sad commentary. Price being the biggest factor in what is best for Home Theater.

HD-DVD has been looking at things from a global perspective from day 1.

-> No region coding.

-> Chinese manufacturers for HD-DVD players. It takes time to transfer technology and it takes good planning and execution to do it well. You can't rush it. People who have studied Technology Management will concur.

-> Supporting local studios, independent studios to make it convenient for them to release on high definition format.

-> Pushing hard to bring the price of hardware down while the software price has been steady. The price of hardware has come down so this has been successful to an extent. Most currencies in the world are lower than the US Dollar except GBP, Euro, Bahrain Dinar. That in effect means higher conversion rate and $200 can be considered cheap in the US market but when looking at things globally and for the masses it may not be that cheap.


Blu-ray has taken a different approach:

-> Region coding from day 1 although the flop Samsung 1st generation BD player is available region free now in the Asia Pacific region for a mind-boggling US $1500! That's for you Disney. ;)

-> Using the PS3 as a launching vehicle for the format rather than focusing on the PS3 to be a pure gaming machine which is better than the highest selling game console in gaming history! They ignored the gaming side of it. Marketed the PS3 as a Blu-Ray vehicle with HDMI 1.3! Wrong approach. Wrong intention. Expected result.

-> I don't consider the BD players to be expensive at launch as they were $1000 or thereabout. DVD players were more expensive at launch. The mistake was not giving a low price stand-alone player option at around $600. The PS3 is a gaming console first and foremost unless Sony wants you to think otherwise.

-> The focus and drive has been purely on the North American market and Japan. The aim was to win over that market and the rest will follow. Once again a wrong approach IMO.


Blu-Ray has shaped their campaign on targetting a niche market while HD-DVD has been looking out globally. HD-DVD has weathered its fair share of storms and come out healthier rather than weaker. Their approach is more structured, more defined and looking out for the masses around the globe. It's the peoples format.


If all studios were neutral, there would be no Blu-Ray at this point. It would have been over a long time ago. Blu-Ray won't become a niche format because it already is a niche format.


HD-DVD will be the format of the masses. The natural extension of DVD and the logical jump to high definition media. Just let China and India get in on the act. That number is in billions. The buying power of millions in those countries is more in sync with HD-DVD prices for hardware. And the Chinese and Indian studios will pick the format that offers them HD at a lesser price with convenience. It's a matter of time.

Excellent post! So much to think about! Thanks for adding so much to the discussion!

Laughable - these are not high-quality formats. Either of them.

The colour resolution (4:2:0) is just not there, for a start. As pointed out above, there's no anamorphic support for 2.35, so you get only about 800 pixels verically, barely better than anamorphic PAL. And, finally, just by looking at it, I am convinced 1920 x 1080 is not enough resolution.

The 1080 is a tip-off that neither HD-DVD nor Blu-Ray is aimed at the high end. Except for a very few who have space for a true 1080 plasma or have a projection room with a 3-chip DLP, the display of choice is 768 plasma for those who care about quality. The target market for these two disc formats is people with a 32" LCD in the living room, who don't care too much about quality.

I would love to see one of them replace DVD so I can see all those European films without PAL speed-up (and now you know which I favour), but they are a bugfix to DVD rather than the true next generation.

Laughable - these are not high-quality formats. Either of them.
......
I would love to see one of them replace DVD so I can see all those European films without PAL speed-up (and now you know which I favour), but they are a bugfix to DVD rather than the true next generation.

Curious, to you what would be 'true next generation' specs?

You don't seem satisfied with color or resolution on these, but I would think most people with a good setup would disagree with you. I for one enjoy the 3D appearence in the colors which are truely breathtaking at times. And resolution, what can be better then seeing every hair and pore on a person's head?

And resolution, what can be better then seeing every hair and pore on a person's head?

He's got a point re: no anamorphic options for formats wider than 16:9. I disagree about that 768 plasma being the system of choice, though; I have a 100" front projection at 1080p (JVC RS-1), and I wouldn't trade it for a 768 plasma.

He's got a point re: no anamorphic options for formats wider than 16:9. I disagree about that 768 plasma being the system of choice, though; I have a 100" front projection at 1080p (JVC RS-1), and I wouldn't trade it for a 768 plasma.


I do agree with him on the anamorphic. I would like to see better options on this, but besides that in my opinion I think everything else is great.

Curious, to you what would be 'true next generation' specs?

Every pixel having a colour signal, and 2k or 4k resolution. You do realise that there's really only 540 pixels vertically of chroma? They would need to increase the disc diameter for this, or use some other technology.

I for one enjoy the 3D appearence in the colors which are truely breathtaking at times.

But not comparable to what you will see in the cinema. By "3D" I assume you mean that shallow depth of field shows up more with a decent resolution - that's got nothing to do with colour.

I disagree about that 768 plasma being the system of choice, though; I have a 100" front projection at 1080p (JVC RS-1), and I wouldn't trade it for a 768 plasma.

Juicy - no dynamic iris. The real cost of a projector is finding a dark space (increasingly difficult with modern buildings, unless you dedicate a room), but we are assuming high-end after all. It seems to me, though, that LCD/LCOS projectors will continue to increase in resolution and 1920 x 1080 will soon be seen to be not enough. If you think it is, fire up a 35mm slide projector and come back and tell me you still think it is (that's about 4k).

HD-DVD will be the format of the masses. The natural extension of DVD and the logical jump to high definition media. Just let China and India get in on the act. That number is in billions. The buying power of millions in those countries is more in sync with HD-DVD prices for hardware. And the Chinese and Indian studios will pick the format that offers them HD at a lesser price with convenience. It's a matter of time.

Do you seriously believe any format will be for the masses at this point? I have a hard time seeing J6P in the US/Europe buying into these HDM formats, let alone the masses in countries such as India and China. China also has a history of not wanting internationally made formats, and may try their own version (if they haven't already).

Lastly, for these markets were cost is a big issue, VMD is already in the works. Please read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Versatile_Multilayer_Disc

Do you seriously believe any format will be for the masses at this point? I have a hard time seeing J6P in the US/Europe buying into these HDM formats, let alone the masses in countries such as India and China. China also has a history of not wanting internationally made formats, and may try their own version (if they haven't already).


Re-read the part of my post that you quoted. I stated that HD-DVD will be the format for the masses.



Lastly, for these markets were cost is a big issue, VMD is already in the works. Please read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Versatile_Multilayer_Disc

It will be HD-DVD that reaches the masses. Denon has postponed the arrival of their Blu-Ray player. Pioneer and Panasonic can't hold their stance for long now, because they know movies like Bourne, Transformers, Shrek and many more in the future will not be playable on their current hardware offerings.

If they don't go neutral, Samsung will clean house on the hardware front.

Every pixel having a colour signal, and 2k or 4k resolution. You do realise that there's really only 540 pixels vertically of chroma? They would need to increase the disc diameter for this, or use some other technology.

Sure, but right now most people's systems aren't calibrated well enough to make much of the difference. For the high-end though, you are correct, although I'm not sure about the eye's ability to resolve color definition vs. brightness resolution....need to do some research.

The real cost of a projector is finding a dark space (increasingly difficult with modern buildings, unless you dedicate a room), but we are assuming high-end after all.

True - I'm lucky in having a light-controlled HT space.

It seems to me, though, that LCD/LCOS projectors will continue to increase in resolution and 1920 x 1080 will soon be seen to be not enough. If you think it is, fire up a 35mm slide projector and come back and tell me you still think it is (that's about 4k).

Perhaps, but it is dependent on your viewing distance vs. screen size. Yes, there is a difference, but I'm not sure it's enough to matter in mosthome situations.

Do you seriously believe any format will be for the masses at this point? I have a hard time seeing J6P in the US/Europe buying into these HDM formats, let alone the masses in countries such as India and China. China also has a history of not wanting internationally made formats, and may try their own version (if they haven't already).

Lastly, for these markets were cost is a big issue, VMD is already in the works. Please read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Versatile_Multilayer_Disc

The Chinese WILL have their own HD format. It is called C-HD DVD and has been approved by the DVD Forum. It is not compatable with Toshiba HD DVD.

The Chinese WILL have their own HD format. It is called C-HD DVD and has been approved by the DVD Forum. It is not compatable with Toshiba HD DVD.

I was under the impression that the hardware was 100% compatible, but that the encoding on the disc was incompatible.:confused:

China also has a history of not wanting internationally made formats, and may try their own version (if they haven't already). [/url]

Just an observation. It's not true that China does not want internationally made formats, they just don't see the sense in paying any royalties. They make more DVD players than the rest of the world combined.

The government itself though doesn't like being hit up for missing payments, and wants to come up with a scheme where they continue to make players but not pay any royalties.

As for the chinese disk watching habits. Other than the $1 hollywood movies selling on the street corners and specialty shops, their own local disks appear to pack up to 10 hours on a DVD9, in many cases with a quarter the resolution of DVDs. Majority of Chinese disk buyers prefer to pack more content onto the same disk. If they get higher density, they'll probably rather pack a 100 hour soap opera onto a single disk than 4 hours of highdef.

I was under the impression that the hardware was 100% compatible, but that the encoding on the disc was incompatible.:confused:

It is a licensing issue. China does not want to pay the LF's for HD DVD. So they developed their own. You can't play an HD DVD in a C-HD DVD player and visa versa.

But it is a baby step for them to make HD DVD players.

A chipset insider has already strongly suggested that Chinese manufacturers are interested in BD. You're kidding yourself if you don't think there will soon be price parity.

That said, it pains me to see "enthusiasts" cheering for the lowest common denominator. Clearly being an early adopter does strange things to people's brains.
Value is a funny thing.

Apart from a higher capacity and a higher max bitrate, bluray has offered no additional benefits for the money.

At half the price, HD DVD has offered 30 gigs on the vast majority of releases (more than enough), lossless TruHD decoding on all players, network ports, a "fully implemented" interactive (HDi) language, a single, coherent player spec, and more.

For twice the price, bluray has offered nothing but incomplete technology - from the replication of the BD50s, which is still not working reliably, to three different player specs and an obsolete range of first and second gen players, to BD-J implementations that are still not performing the same on the various platforms.

Meanwhile, HD DVD is heading for the $200 mark and mass-adoption, while Bluray has just managed to cross the $500 mark.

There is far more evidence of Chinese HD DVD players hitting the market this holiday season than any indication that there will be Chinese bluray players at the same price...

Re-read the part of my post that you quoted. I stated that HD-DVD will be the format for the masses.




It will be HD-DVD that reaches the masses. Denon has postponed the arrival of their Blu-Ray player. Pioneer and Panasonic can't hold their stance for long now, because they know movies like Bourne, Transformers, Shrek and many more in the future will not be playable on their current hardware offerings.

If they don't go neutral, Samsung will clean house on the hardware front.

Wow, some incredible information you put out there to convince everyone!!

I know what you THINK. Unfortunately that doesn't make it so ;)

HDDVD is still (and may be for a loooong time) too costly for most people. It is not headed for mass adoption. How many people in China or India (or Europe or the US for that matter) will have 60" hdtv's in the next 5 years?

Seems even people with HDTV's now are happy with their dvd's. I hear all the time how amazed they are of the quality when upconverting dvd's - so you think they will pay more for players and discs to (possible) see a slight difference (in their eyes/on their equipment).

You may want to get your head out of the clouds :)

The Chinese WILL have their own HD format. It is called C-HD DVD and has been approved by the DVD Forum. It is not compatable with Toshiba HD DVD.

Thanks for the info!

Just an observation. It's not true that China does not want internationally made formats, they just don't see the sense in paying any royalties. They make more DVD players than the rest of the world combined.

The government itself though doesn't like being hit up for missing payments, and wants to come up with a scheme where they continue to make players but not pay any royalties.

As for the chinese disk watching habits. Other than the $1 hollywood movies selling on the street corners and specialty shops, their own local disks appear to pack up to 10 hours on a DVD9, in many cases with a quarter the resolution of DVDs. Majority of Chinese disk buyers prefer to pack more content onto the same disk. If they get higher density, they'll probably rather pack a 100 hour soap opera onto a single disk than 4 hours of highdef.


Very good points, which brings me back to my core belief (today anyway haha) that HDM is not very interesting to the general public and will remain niche (in all markets)

He's got a point re: no anamorphic options for formats wider than 16:9. I disagree about that 768 plasma being the system of choice, though; I have a 100" front projection at 1080p (JVC RS-1), and I wouldn't trade it for a 768 plasma.


There was an IF-THEN statement buried in there.

For those who have the space(and I'll add money), bigger is better.

Myself, a 42" 768P PDP was the way to go. My 42" PDP beats the pants off my parents 52" LCD rear projection. No contest whatsoever.

i dunno what i am i have a 50" 1080p plasma.. guess that makes me elite. yet i still perfer hd-dvd.

Don't you mean will it "stay" a niche format. Right now, both are so small they don't even qualify as niche markets.:)

Why is a downright stupid thread like this coming lately without lock when HD DVD is highly vulnerable in the PC space due to its smaller storage and slowness?

Why is a downright stupid thread like this coming lately without lock when HD DVD is highly vulnerable in the PC space due to its smaller storage and slowness?

Because neither format is sensible to use for computer backup unless you can read that backup elsewhere. Unlike the home video domain, there is no chance for coexistence.

The computer manufacturers appear to be waiting for one format to establish dominance in home video. Look, for example, at the new iMac - a media centre, complete with glossy HDCP screen, and plain DVD.

For something to "become" something, wouldn't it have to change?

Don't you mean will it "stay" a niche format. Right now, both are so small they don't even qualify as niche markets.:)

Lifecycles/Market Size(?)

1. Brand New
2. Emerging
3. Niche
4. Successful
5. Mass Adoption.

Both niche, to bad the 2 primary format sponsors are the 2 primary hardware suppliers.

Only hope for mass adoption as it stands now is if Sony and Toshiba see the signs of mutual destruction, and make a good quality Universal player, together.:D

Nope, not true. Universal players will not be cheap enough for mass adoption, probably for 3 years. The winning format has to get their players out there for $99 at the low end, with high end players at the Oppo price range ($200). Of course Denon will still come out with the $2000 player, but hey, that's their shtick ;)

Universal players will not fuel mass adoption, though may ease some fears among videophiles (dual players mean their libraries won't go obsolete as easily).

Mass adoption requires one format to win -- and by win I mean become a viable alternative to DVD for those with HDTVs. If one format doesn't do that in 2 years, I think HDM is in big trouble. The format war, in the short-term, is good for HDM, as it forces both sides to speed up mass adoption. In the long term, though, there is only room for one to stay standing.

If this is only a war between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, then BR still has the short-term advantage (2:1, PS3, slightly more studios, blah, blah). But in the war for mass adoption, HD-DVD stands the best chance. Coincidently, that's my format. Could I be biased? Surely not! ;)

Tell Sony that I'd buy a PS3 if it included IR remote, looked like a regular component in my rack, had enough cooling not to sound like a jet airplane, and cost half the price. That's my terms for going format neutral :)

Wow, some incredible information you put out there to convince everyone!!

HDDVD is still (and may be for a loooong time) too costly for most people. It is not headed for mass adoption. How many people in China or India (or Europe or the US for that matter) will have 60" hdtv's in the next 5 years?


Wow, yourself, you should really take a trip to find out about the rest of the world

The Paramount announcement just ends the format war. Now, the reality is that there are dual HD formats and the only way for HDM to succeed is for HD combo players to become competitively priced with DVD players. The real question is whether HDM will get enough adoption to survive as a niche.