This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml

Then again, given Mr. Enderle's reputation among the Linux crowd...

Still, a stopped clock is right 2x a day ;)

Then again, given Mr. Enderle's reputation among the Linux crowd...

Still, a stopped clock is right 2x a day ;)

He says $250 milion in incentives, I thought the NYT article's "official" Viacom "exec" inititiated rumour was $150M?

Interesting he mentions Warner and Disney as keys studios that will probably decide the "war".

Warner going HD-exclusive and Disney going neutral? Another week or so and we'll find out.

I still think something big is in store for the HD camp. The Paramount/Dreamworks deal was only the beginning.

Interesting perspective. The author states pretty confdently that Blu-ray will lose when a lot of people either think Paramount and Dreamworks' move evens the playing field or "is just a flesh wound". It would be interesting to see what happenes after Sept 5 and the holiday season with HDM.

Interesting perspective. The author states pretty confdently that Blu-ray will lose when a lot of people either think Paramount and Dreamworks' move evens the playing field or "is just a flesh wound". It would be interesting to see what happenes after Sept 5 and the holiday season with HDM.

And he may be privy to alot of "insider" news as he admits he was one of the guys who was advising Warner Bros:

In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to hedge its bets and go with both formats.

He seems pretty confident that Blu Ray is dead or in serious trouble. Does he know more but can't discuss it? :)

Hopefully Fox & Disney are looking at this saying "hey, we better get on board!"

Time to start a Blu Ray Death Clock

LOL.......


I don't hear a fat lady singing yet!

I want to believe the guy.. and it all sounds realistic... but I still have my doubts.

I think there are many good points in that article covered over a very short amount of space:

1) Sony pricing itself out of the market was about the DUMBEST thing I've seen in consoles in a long, long time. And their conceited act towards the market and just flat assuming that everyone would buy one no matter what was pathetic. For that attitude alone, they deserve any struggles they get.

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

3) Speculation about what's next with the studios. Will Warner go HD-DVD only? Disney neutral? Again, Sony's epic screw-ups are causing them problems that they just shouldn't have. The PS3, with Blu-Ray built-in, SHOULD have been easy sailing for this format. But they've messed it up in so many ways, it's just given HD-DVD time to grow, time to mature, and most importantly time to bring the prices of their hardware down to prices that a lot of people won't feel bad about asking for an HD-DVD player for Christmas because of the price.

I honestly don't care who "wins," but I totally agree with this guy in the sense that Blu-Ray is almost to the point where it can't win. It should be miles ahead right now and the fact that it's not is probably making all those Blu-Ray studios wonder why they're sticking around.

I don't have any reason to think that Warner is going HD-DVD exclusive anytime soon, but if they do, that could pretty much be game over. Who's going to go into Blockbuster Video and care about Blu-Ray rentals when the only studios they can choose from are Sony, Fox, and Disney? HD-DVD would more or less have EVERYTHING else at that point. And IF Warner goes to HD-DVD, I can't see both Disney and Fox staying exclusive to Blu-Ray. One or the other would go neutral, at least.

Personally I think all the Warner rumors are nothing more than that. But if it happens, I think Blu-Ray has about a year left. Tops.

LOL.......


I don't hear a fat lady singing yet!

Question is, will you hear her in Dolby TrueHD or uncompressed multichannel PCM? And, will you be able to tell the difference?

This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml
*Carefully removing a single grain of salt from the shaker with a pair of tweezers.*

He was wrong once already predicting BD win in the past, he could be developing a pattern of being wrong again. I do think war is not over yet, that BD will have some aces up it's sleeve, besides usual BS and made up stories and the status quo of 2 formats competing for at least another year or so. As a matter of fact Sony's BD-R seems like great computer storage solution, so we may have HD-DVD as format of choice for pressed discs, slowly replacing DVD and BD as computer storage format and niche video format, something like UMD maybe but it will take some time before dust settles down.

It's interesting that when the Paramount news came out the blu-fanboy club led by Wild Bill have the story of Fox/MGM releasing all kinds of titles in the future. This is consistent with how the blu ray clan has conducted their affairs: propaganda. This "war" has done nothing else but insure that the players either pony up or they'll be left behind and it's also made it clear that a Sony led charge is not the one you want to be backing - as Samsung found out.

This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml

Thank you! interesting read.

Both could lose but HD is the only format with half a chance of replacing DVD, namely by being compatible with DVD, combos or however they figure it out.

"I think Paramount and DreamWorks saw this outcome and are trying to avoid it. While they did get an estimated $250 million incentive to move, that doesn't change the result. The studio execs likely realize if revenues don't improve, many of them may not be around by this time next year. Unemployment is a rather impressive motivator for change.

So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win; and the decision may be up to Time Warner or Disney (NYSE: DIS) and not Sony or Toshiba Latest News about Toshiba.

If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse. "

I think there are many good points in that article covered over a very short amount of space:

1) Sony pricing itself out of the market was about the DUMBEST thing I've seen in consoles in a long, long time. And their conceited act towards the market and just flat assuming that everyone would buy one no matter what was pathetic. For that attitude alone, they deserve any struggles they get.

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

3) Speculation about what's next with the studios. Will Warner go HD-DVD only? Disney neutral? Again, Sony's epic screw-ups are causing them problems that they just shouldn't have. The PS3, with Blu-Ray built-in, SHOULD have been easy sailing for this format. But they've messed it up in so many ways, it's just given HD-DVD time to grow, time to mature, and most importantly time to bring the prices of their hardware down to prices that a lot of people won't feel bad about asking for an HD-DVD player for Christmas because of the price.

I honestly don't care who "wins," but I totally agree with this guy in the sense that Blu-Ray is almost to the point where it can't win. It should be miles ahead right now and the fact that it's not is probably making all those Blu-Ray studios wonder why they're sticking around.

I don't have any reason to think that Warner is going HD-DVD exclusive anytime soon, but if they do, that could pretty much be game over. Who's going to go into Blockbuster Video and care about Blu-Ray rentals when the only studios they can choose from are Sony, Fox, and Disney? HD-DVD would more or less have EVERYTHING else at that point. And IF Warner goes to HD-DVD, I can't see both Disney and Fox staying exclusive to Blu-Ray. One or the other would go neutral, at least.

Personally I think all the Warner rumors are nothing more than that. But if it happens, I think Blu-Ray has about a year left. Tops.

Well said!

Thats why MS and Toshiba should invest everything they have into getting Warner to go exclusive to HD-DVD. The return will be instant and they could rap it up in a matter of months! HD-DVD needs this and without no one is going to win!

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

I agree. The average person goes into BB or CC and see that they can purchase something like: "Insignia® DVD Player with HD Upconversion for $49" The chances of spending the extra $$$ for a player and a new format for movies is very slim.

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result.If that's true, then the studios are looking at continued declines in sales and chronic revenue losses for the foreseeable future. No, they badly need something to revitalize their industry and, if Sony has f***ed it up as badly as Mr. Enderle suggests, HD DVD is starting to look like the only vehicle in sight that has the ability to do that. Paramount analyzed the market over the course of a year or more and concluded that HD DVD has a future... Blu-ray does not. Warner, Disney and Fox must be, at the very least, considering this as well. The studios HAVE to come to a consensus in choosing a common HD format in order for the industry to move forward... there is too much at stake for them to stand idly by and just watch it swirl down the drain. IMHO, the Paramount decision is a strong indicator, if not a driver, of how this will all go down.

The studios HAVE to come to a consensus in choosing a common HD format in order for the industry to move forward... there is too much at stake for them to stand idly by and just watch it swirl down the drain.

I don't get all this "both formats might die" doomsaying. Sure, market confusion could lead to neither of these particular formats being adopted (in the same way that it is currently curtailing their faster adoption), but how on earth could their be NOTHING left in their wake? Is the consumer demand for entertainment content on disc media going to suddenly dry up overnight because the Blu-Ray/HD DVD battle makes consumers tentative? Isn't this a bit like suggesting that if HBO files for bankruptcy protection, everyone will turn off their tvs?

Anyone know what Bill...and I want to call him a shill, but I won't as that's apparently not allowed anymore, Hunt has to say about this just yet? I'd imagine he'll have both barrels loaded with some FUD response.

I don't get all this "both formats might die" doomsaying. Sure, market confusion could lead to neither of these particular formats being adoptedIn which case... "both formats might die."

but how on earth could their be NOTHING left in their wake? Is the consumer demand for entertainment content on disc media going to suddenly dry up overnight because the Blu-Ray/HD DVD battle makes consumers tentative?
What would be left in their wake is what we already have... SD DVD. Consumer demand is drying up, not necessarily because of a format war, but because SD DVDs are reaching a point of saturation and sales stagnation is the result. HD is the new kid in town... the one the studios are hoping will revitalize their industry.

Isn't this a bit like suggesting that if HBO files for bankruptcy protection, everyone will turn off their tvs?Uhh, you completely lost me there. HBO is a channel on a receiver... amongst many channels on the exact same receiver. It's not the same as competing formats at all.

What would be left in their wake is what we already have... SD DVD. Consumer demand is drying up, not necessarily because of a format war, but because SD DVDs are reaching a point of saturation and sales stagnation is the result.

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all. And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way.

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all.:confused: WHAT are you talking about?? I never said DVD would continue to fill the void indefinitely. But as far as there being "another consumer HD media disc before too long," dude, look at how long it took to get HD DVD from concept to production... we're talking several years to birth a new format.

And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way. :eek::confused: Don't drink and post.

The war is not over.

As of March 2007 just Sony Corp. in Japan had $10.9 BILLION dollars in cash on its balance sheet.

That is just Sony, there are many ohter members of the BDA. All huge companies like Dell, Apple, TDK, Hewlett-Packard, Pioneer, Panasonic and many more.

This war is a LONG way from being over. ;)

I agree. The average person goes into BB or CC and see that they can purchase something like: "Insignia® DVD Player with HD Upconversion for $49" The chances of spending the extra $$$ for a player and a new format for movies is very slim.

That's true, but how much longer will it be before that $49 DVD Player is sitting next to a $99 or $79 or even $59 HD DVD player? Or perhaps J6P went into the store looking for the Star Trek TOS remaster for $150 and now he's looking at the Venture HD DVD player for $150; if he's already dropping $150 on software why not drop another $150 to play the HD side of that software?

Originally Posted by fistofsouth
Or perhaps J6P went into the store looking for the Star Trek TOS remaster for $150 and now he's looking at the Venture HD DVD player for $150

J6P isn't going to get by the $150 price tag for Star Trek: TOS...

fitprod

Way too early to call it quits for either one.
However, if the sub150.00 players hit big in ,say, Walmart....
That would be a critical blow.

Chris.

As of March 2007 just Sony Corp. in Japan had $10.9 BILLION dollars in cash on its balance sheet.


Just Sony had that because that's the balance sheet showing how many BILLIONS they are in the hole from the PS3:D

This guy is an analyst and made a recommendation without knowing the hardware costs? I don't know about you but that's a pretty important parameter that is a necessity before making any recommendations. I say this guy is full of it claiming to be an analyst for TW. If he really was the TW execs that hired him should be fired and he should turn in his diploma.

This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml
I am as big a supporter of HD DVD as anyone else, but I think this is a little too hasty and premature. The BDA is in trouble, yes, but they have proved themselves to be diabolical in the past. I expect them to concuct a FUD in the media or a deal to try and salvage whatever dignity that they have left. If they are unable to release 1.1 compliable players by this year, all hell would break loose, we're talking mas defections from the BR camp.:D
However, I believe that a WB announcement for HD DVD exclusivity would capsize their already sinking ship...and that, I would call "the death blow" :)

http://www.tvpredictions.com/2007/08/could-warner-support-hd-dvd-next.html

On the BD side, one must wonder what is going on there given that Denon has announced that their Blu-Ray player will not be available until some time in 2008. It does not look as though there will be any 1.1 compliant Blu-Ray player available in 2007. While it is possible that the PS3 can be upgraded to 1.1 specs via a firmware upgrade, that has not been confirmed by Sony. With this being the case, one must wonder why Disney is going ahead with releasing Cars and
Ratatouie in November with interactive features that no player can play. I am sure that Warner is not at all happy with this development.

It is hard to believe that one year after release, there is still no 1.1 complaint Blu-Ray player on the market. While there have been rumblings of a cheap Blu-Ray player from Funai, one must
wonder what a BD player under $299 will make the other BD manufacturers such as Panasonic feel. They will have seen Blu-Ray player prices fall from $1,300 to under $300 in less than a year. So much for making profits on a new format. BD prices will have fallen as far in a year as it took DVD players to fall over several years. That can't make anyone in the BDA happy, not even Sony.

The BDA is in trouble ... I expect them to concuct a FUD in the media or a deal to try and salvage whatever dignity that they have left. If they are unable to release 1.1 compliable players by this year, all hell would break loose, we're talking mas defections from the BR camp.
The BDA only has to do one thing to win... release movies. What's appalling isn't player costs or FUD or unfinished specs, but the simple fact that aside from Warner's efforts there seems to hardly be any big buzz around BD release schedules. How many teeth had to be pulled just to get "Cars" released? And Fox... my goodness. I'm annoyed at the war not for the uncertainty of it all but more than anything because of how incompetently it's been played. As it stands it seems like Sony doesn't want to win anything (consoles or formats), but then historically that's not unusual for them.

If HD-DVD wins it's because those members seem to want to win.

Just Sony had that because that's the balance sheet showing how many BILLIONS they are in the hole from the PS3:D

Here's Bloomberg's "Sony's Fiscal Statement projections!"

Sony Says PlayStation Unit Losses to Narrow This Year (Update3) - from Bloomberg.com ... (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at3V.7e_7ISU&refer=home)

May 17 -- Sony Corp., the world's largest game console maker, said it will cut PlayStation losses by almost 80 percent this year by raising sales and slashing production costs.

The game unit will post about a 50 billion yen ($414 million) operating loss in the year ending March 2008 and turn profitable the following year, Takao Yuhara, Sony's head of investor relations, told reporters in Tokyo today. The median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected a deficit of 83 billion yen.

Looks like the following ...

"... median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected a deficit of 83 billion yen" ($729 million)

... will become a reality because of the Paramount / Dreamworks announcement!!!

Click the link above to read the entire Bloomberg on-line article!

Phil

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all. And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way.
Another way to look at it is... In the coming years, more average Joe's will own HDTV's and receive HD programming from their cable provider. As that happens, standard DVDs may look WORSE compared to cable TV programs. At that point consumers will seek a higher video standard, and the HD disc will become more in demand. So the HD format disc will never die. There will be a winner ... someday.

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all. And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way.

It will be a long, long time before everyone has an HDTV. I know several people who have no plan to ditch their old analog TV anytime soon. They will just use the governm,ent issued vouchers to get an STB to convert the digital progamming for use on the analog set. This is what many people will do in February 2009.

...the HD format disc will never die. There will be a winner ... someday.Which is the point I've been trying to make... it's in the studios' best interests to come to a consensus on a single format to eliminate the consumer confusion that's holding HDM back, and the sooner they do, the sooner their industry can start to capitalize on it.

In this respect, the format war has been quite detrimental... instead of common purpose, there's bickering and flaming... instead of buyers, there are fence-sitters... instead of excitement, there's apathy and confusion.

The studios have had a year to evaluate this... it's time for them to **** or get off the pot. Until they come together and start pulling in a common direction, I don't see much hope for their bottom lines improving... never mind the continued languishing of both formats in other than a niche role.

HD DVD simply offers them the most economical way to provide the high-quality HD experience that their customers want and will pay for.

Personaly speaking, I think Rob is a bit of a "A" hole.... but he does serve a valid point..... BD has already lost

People tend to forget the fact that this is not so much about HD DVD vs. BD, but rather about SD vs. HD. The goal here is to find a HD format that can replace DVD, and BD is just not there. At the end of the day... HD DVD is MUCH, MUCH closer to accomplishing this goal.

I would go so far as to say that it is HD DVD that is keeping this whole thing alive. If they packed it tomorrow, BD would have no choice but to do the same shortly thereafter, because it would leave them back in the original war competing against DVD.... and they are simply NO WHERE NEAR ready for that. A $400 HD player up against a $30 dvd player... come on..... it's game over.

So I believe Rob when he says BD has already lost.... the question is are they going to allow HD DVD to win? It's my true belief that the only thing BD is doing at this point.... is a good job at possibly killing HD for ALL OF US.

But...I suspect that this in fact is what Paramount saw, and with a little bit of assistance from Joe public and cheap HD DVD players.... the other studios will eventually see it too.

The goal here is to find a HD format that can replace DVD, and BD is just not there. At the end of the day... HD DVD is MUCH, MUCH closer to accomplishing this goal.

I would go so far as to say that it is HD DVD that is keeping this whole thing alive. If they packed it tomorrow, BD would have no choice but to do the same shortly thereafter, because it would leave them back in the original war competing against DVD.... and they are simply NO WHERE NEAR ready for that. A $400 HD player up against a $30 dvd player... come on..... it's game over.

So I believe Rob when he says BD has already lost.... the question is are they going to allow HD DVD to win?It's my true belief that the only thing BD is doing at this point.... is a good job at possibly killing HD for ALL OF US.

But...I suspect that this in fact is what Paramount saw, and with a little bit of assistance from Joe public and cheap HD DVD players.... the other studios will eventually see it too.Exactly.

BD hasn't lost...jeez...nor has it won. I hate supporting sony in any way frankly (though I wish they would come out with more exclusive games! I'll support them in that arena), but come on they have a larger installed base and are selling significantly more software than HD. I'm not saying they won, because they haven't. And I see HD picking up speed through this holiday season. But comeon, what's with the "bd has already lost" comments? Talk about FUD...

The argument that it's SD vs HD is right on the money, where HD is HD and BD...

What's most interesting about this whole thing is how Sony has screwed up at nearly every possible chance and they still have the current lead overall.

And to 5thdanmaster...do you really think sony is diabolical? That was quite a laugh. And that hell will break loose without a 1.1 player this year? Even funnier. Go ask 100 people off the street...or at best buy...or anywhere but these particular forums, what 1.1 means to them...they have no idea.

People here have such a tiny view of things...they think what matters to them is what makes the market. We are nerds people :) Early adopters...we don't represent the market....

I would go so far as to say that it is HD DVD that is keeping this whole thing alive. If they packed it tomorrow, BD would have no choice but to do the same shortly thereafter, because it would leave them back in the original war competing against DVD.... and they are simply NO WHERE NEAR ready for that. A $400 HD player up against a $30 dvd player... come on..... it's game over.

This is a fascinating perspective, and one that hasn't been explored much IMO. The concept that HD DVD is what is keeping the idea of HDM alive because of its proximity in price and recognition to DVD is very intriguing.

I agree in principle that BR would instantly be a niche thing going the way of the dodo unless...

We need to remember that BR DOES enjoy the support of more significant hardware producers. Left alone, would these manufacturers not simply (uncontested at that point) lower prices and fill the void? Food for thought.

BD hasn't lost...jeez...nor has it won. I hate supporting sony in any way frankly (though I wish they would come out with more exclusive games! I'll support them in that arena), but come on they have a larger installed base and are selling significantly more software than HD. I'm not saying they won, because they haven't. And I see HD picking up speed through this holiday season. But comeon, what's with the "bd has already lost" comments? Talk about FUD...

No offense, but I'm sure you've got a similar post in the Blu-Ray forum saying something like "'HD DVD has already lost. Talk about FUD'" *right*?

BD hasn't lost...jeez...nor has it won. I hate supporting sony in any way frankly (though I wish they would come out with more exclusive games! I'll support them in that arena), but come on they have a larger installed base and are selling significantly more software than HD.

It's problematic from a BR perspective though when a 6:1 (rumored) hardware advantage only translates to a 2:1 software lead.

I suppose a lead's a lead, though.

It's problematic from a BR perspective though when a 6:1 (rumored) hardware advantage only translates to a 2:1 software lead.

I suppose a lead's a lead, though.

Blu-Ray's true problem is that the main "player" is the PS3. Half the owners do not seem to be aware that they have a Blu-ray player, and the other half buy a few movies but not nearly as many as owners of a dedicated HD player. Yes, here on the AVS forum there are PS3 owners who have bought dozens of movies, but they are the exceptions--despite what they may think. I have always thought that the "average" person will not want a gaming system as a device to play movies, and I think the 6 to 1 and 2 to 1 ratios demonstrate this. The Toshiba players are literally flying off the shelves and slowly but surely HD DVD will retake the lead and will not give it up--even if there are moments when a release such as Spider-Man 3 gives Blu-ray a boost for a short time.

Rob Enderle is the biggest troll on the 'net.

No offense, but I'm sure you've got a similar post in the Blu-Ray forum saying something like "'HD DVD has already lost. Talk about FUD'" *right*?

Wrong, but thanks for wasting a post speculating. I'm actually neutral...i don't care who wins as long as it's fast (sooner is better).

As for the "troubling" attach rates of the PS3, I don't want to beat that horse again. It's a multi purpose machine. Not everyone is buying it for movies. The attach rate is lower than HD. This is all fact. Note that the PS3 game attach rate of the Tosh HD players is zero. Cause they can't play em. So yeah, if you buy an HD player, its only for movies. The low attach rate of the PS3 is expected. Perhaps it's lower than forecasted, i don't know. All I know is that having the player in more homes is good. Selling more software than the competition is good.

What I'm looking forward to is when the Jan 08 figures come in. Get a chance to see what the upshot of the holiday season is. I suspect that HD will move a ton of players, and reduce the 2:1 BD software sales ratio. If that doesn't happen, and if BD holds the ratio (which would mean selling a lot of overpriced BD players, which seems unlikely unless the PS3 has some real exclusive hits from a game perspective), then things won't be great for HD.

I think HD needs to have a really strong showing in Q4 that shows a Q108 trend of continually eroding the BD:HD software sell through ratio. And I think it's more than likely that will happen. The war won't end either way at that point, but it would put Sony into a worse bind than they are already in.

Rob Enderle is the biggest troll on the 'net.
Wild Bill says "hello."

This war will be a nice see-saw ride.

I think HD needs to have a really strong showing in Q4 that shows a Q108 trend of continually eroding the BD:HD software sell through ratio. And I think it's more than likely that will happen. The war won't end either way at that point, but it would put Sony into a worse bind than they are already in.

Doesn't HD DVD need a knockout punch soon in order to win (or survive)? BD players won't be priced out of range forever. If HD DVD doesn't turn some more exclusive studios before BD players reach $199, isn't it game over?

I'm partial to HD DVD but I wonder if there's a limited window of opportunity here. Right now, price is the big thing keeping them in the game, but that advantage won't last forever.