http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml

Old news...:rolleyes:

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml

There's already thread about this:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=898571

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

Link? Sorry, but the 6:1 number is BS - what have you been smoking?

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.

Uh, NO. I like how you make up numbers. Next time, at least make it believable.

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.
The last numbers from Nielsen I saw:
67:33 for the year
61:39 since inception

so is 2.03:1 for 2007 and not 6:1 and 1.56:1 SI.

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.

I'd like to see your source. When you are unable to find it don't post here again.

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.

I think the 6:1 number is something to do with players sold not software.
hang on I'll look
found it!

Tom's mad blog, Death Knell for Blu Ray. http://www.tomrichmond.com/blog/?p=1301

"Consider this: even though thanks to the PS3 Blu-Ray enjoys a 6:1 advantage in players sold, their disks are only outselling HD-DVD’s by 2:1. Why? Obviously most of the PS3 owner’s out there use it for gaming and don’t buy or watch movies on it. "

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.

Emotep, you've been hiding in those pyramids for far too long.:)

Good Grief! I can't believe someone actually referenced a blog written by Tom Richmond. I've never met the guy, but I've worked with a ton of people who have worked for him in the past (at Valley Fair). I'm even more surprised that I agree with just about everything he wrote, tho he doesn't do a lot of editorializing in that entry.

His summary of the entire situation sounds about right though and is laid out in a simple straightforward manner easy to digest by non a/v philes like us here.

I think the 6:1 number is something to do with players sold not software.
hang on I'll look
found it!

Tom's mad blog, Death Knell for Blu Ray. http://www.tomrichmond.com/blog/?p=1301

"Consider this: even though thanks to the PS3 Blu-Ray enjoys a 6:1 advantage in players sold, their disks are only outselling HD-DVD’s by 2:1. Why? Obviously most of the PS3 owner’s out there use it for gaming and don’t buy or watch movies on it. "

But doesn't that mean a 4:1 deficit in BR titles sitting on the shelf?

But doesn't that mean a 4:1 deficit in BR titles sitting on the shelf?
The problem is that not all game consoles are used to watch movies, so the 2:1 software sales is hard to say is good or bad with that reference. To me is a bad number that easily can go the other way. I guess the idea was to put many of those players and get a good amount of movies sold to them, for me the 2:1 ratio is low, I guess many people expected a 4:1 by now.

The problem is that not all game consoles are used to watch movies...

Recent surveys have show that only 15% of console owners make use of the multimedia capabilities of their consoles (i.e. only 15% use it for stuff other than games).

And of that 15%, even less use it for disc-based video playback.

And obviously, even less again would use their console for Hi-Def. disc-based video playback.

So definitely well under 10%. (Sony claims 20%, but we now have proof otherwise!)

Blu-Ray movies are outselling HD-DVD movies 2:1 overall, and something like 6:1 for 2007.

/thread.


/paramount didn't seem to care

6:1, can you point to that factoid source. Cheers

6:1, can you point to that factoid source. Cheers

That's for hardware. That's actually bad news for blu-ray, not good.

If you have 6x the amount of hardware and are only selling 2x the number of titles... there's a problem. Especially when the competition is dropping hardware prices lower and faster.

Basically, this just shows the "PS3 effect" isn't working. PS3 has sold about 1.5 million units, but people -- by and large -- are not using it for movies. That's NOT what Sony promised and NOT what the studios want to see. Sony's projections showed better PS3 sales and higher BD attachment rates.

Meanwhile, HD DVD is selling less, but when people buy a player, they clearly also buy software to feed it. *That's* what studios want to see. And *that's* why Paramount went exclusive.

Players now 6:1.

Good going for HD DVD as it was closer to 10:1 a couple of months ago...

LOL...it's bad news that Sony is putting more BD players in peoples homes? Yes I get the argument that it proves the attach rate is lower, but duh, we all know that.

Attach rates are virtually meaningless aside from forecasting. We have *actual* hard core sales numbers...and BD is outselling HD 2:1. That is the most important number, followed closely by trend.

Personally, I think that the trend will begin favoring HD and they will break down the 2:1 ratio. This is going to depend on cheaper HD players making a big holiday splash, which i think they will. On the other hand, if sony actually gets some decent games out there, then they may move a lot of PS3s (relative to HD players), and despite the low attach rate the *total* BD sales will increase significantly. Will it maintain 2:1? we'll have to wait and see...

But to sit back and say it's bad that they have this hardware in so many homes is a joke only a fanboy could say with a straight face. If you HAD to pick a side (as a studio), then BD would be the way to go because you have a bigger market today. But the smarter thing is to be warner and sell to both and see which way things blow.

Excellent new editorial over at doom9 (http://www.doom9.org/index.html?/no_choice.htm) on the two formats. In the end, the writer is skeptical of HD-DVD but can't stand by Blu-Ray under any circumstances.

The whole 2:1 and 6:1 numbers are not accurate considering that Neilson does not include most online retailers and other stores in their sales figures. Most online stores actually sell more HD-DVD product than Blu-Ray right now but those sales numbers are never included in the Neilson findings. The studios themselves should really post the sales numbers since they know exact numbers and not Neilson that only reports sales numbers for companies it has agreements with, then there would be a more accurate reporting method.

I believe Emotep was referring to this: http://spong.com/article/13022

Excellent new editorial over at doom9 (http://www.doom9.org/index.html?/no_choice.htm) on the two formats. In the end, the writer is skeptical of HD-DVD but can't stand by Blu-Ray under any circumstances.

Easily giving the possibility that both could fail.

LOL...it's bad news that Sony is putting more BD players in peoples homes?

If those people are NOT using it as a BD player and are NOT buying titles... yes, that's bad news. From a studio perspective, at least. Why would Disney be happy that Sony has sold 1.5 million PS3s, if the attach rates are showing that people are buying only an average of 1.3 titles?

Attach rates are virtually meaningless aside from forecasting. We have *actual* hard core sales numbers...and BD is outselling HD 2:1. That is the most important number, followed closely by trend.

We're in the VERY early stages of high def media. Studios ARE forecasting. Why do you think Paramount went exclusive?

They're seeing people buying HD DVD players are also buying titles. And players are cheaper. And they're trending that info out to see that they (as a studio) sell more titles if HD DVD takes off. So they're throwing their support that way.

The 2:1 ratio (while "actual hard core" numbers) is NOT the most important number. Not when you're dealing with a 6:1 hardware advantage and only 4 million pieces of software sold total.

Personally, I think that the trend will begin favoring HD and they will break down the 2:1 ratio. This is going to depend on cheaper HD players making a big holiday splash, which i think they will.

As do I. As does Paramount. This seems to fly in the face of what you're arguing above.

On the other hand, if sony actually gets some decent games out there, then they may move a lot of PS3s (relative to HD players), and despite the low attach rate the *total* BD sales will increase significantly. Will it maintain 2:1? we'll have to wait and see...

But can't you see how this is a nightmare from a studio perspective? Lets say that Sony sells 10 million PS3s over the holidays. And the attachment rate stays the same (about 1.x titles per machine)... sure, on the surface, that looks great. They'll sell 11 million titles. But that's it. There's no long-term continuous stream of movie buying there. Sales will trickle relative to the large number of machines out there.

As a studio, I do not want a situation where my main audience is people who aren't building movie collections and are more likely to buy games. I'd rather have $150 HD DVD players in millions of homes where people will actually buy software for it.


But to sit back and say it's bad that they have this hardware in so many homes is a joke only a fanboy could say with a straight face.

I think you're calling me a fanboy. I am not.

And Paramount/Dreamworks just essentially said the same thing via their actions. Are *they* fanboys?

If you HAD to pick a side (as a studio), then BD would be the way to go because you have a bigger market today.

No, it isn't. Again, the "market today" is very small. About 1% (or less) of standard DVD. As a studio, the way to go is the side that you're projecting will sell more titles.

If you have 10 million PS3s and 10 million HD DVD players, you'll do MUCH better (as a studio) with the HD DVD side. Actually, it's looking like you'd do much better with only about 4 million HD DVD players vs. 10 mill PS3s.

*That's* what the trending is showing. And with hardware prices dropping on the HD DVD side quicker to the "magic" J6P numbers (whatever those may be), it looks like this may be a realistic outcome.

I think the PS3 effect has been pretty poor so far and I believe it will actually get worse in the future. For quite a while and still to an extent the PS3 was the cheapest PS3 and best Blu-Ray players other than a couple sticking points like the bluetooth remote. It's still the only Blu-Ray player that has any chance of being upgradable to the BD-Live standard. Given all that its reasonable to assume that some percentage of the PS3 owners bought them to use them primarily as a Blu-Ray player and you definitely see people who post on the forums that did just that.

At some point in the future stand alone players will overcome some or all of those PS3 advantages and people will stop buying PS3's to be used primarily as players and buy stand alone units instead. This will decrease the attach rate for the PS3 for movies. It doesn't necessarily hurt the Blu-Ray side because they are still Blu-Ray consumers but it does make the PS3 look even worse as the great savior of Blu-Ray

The other factor is what I would call the UMD effect. UMDs sold reasonably well when the PSP first came out. Once more games started showing up people stopped buying as many movies and bought the games instead and UMDs pretty much died other than Sony's continuing token support. People have a limited entertainment budgets and money spent on games for a gaming system is money that can't be spent on movies even if they already have a player built into their game system.

The other problem I see Blu-Ray facing is that they are already the more expensive option and implementing the Blu-Ray 1.1 standard will increase the cost of the players. Adding an additional Audio and Video decoder and the persistent storage has to add cost to the players. At a time when they need to be getting the cost down as much as possible to compete with HD-DVD they are going to have to deal with adding mandatory features that will add costs. Sure you can continue shipping the old models with out meeting the Blu-Ray 1.1 profile but then you can't take advantage of newer more integrated chips like the Broadcom SoC solution that the third generation Toshiba's and Chinese HD-DVD players are going to be using. It's really a no win solution. Continue using older designs with higher costs or move to a newer design that requires addition components that add additional costs. Eventually the new designs will have to win out but it mean that the new designs will possibly increase in cost or will not decrease as much as they would otherwise.

LOL...it's bad news that Sony is putting more BD players in peoples homes? Yes I get the argument that it proves the attach rate is lower, but duh, we all know that.

Fast-forward a few years. The total number of game consoles in use is a lot lower than the total number of DVD players. The comparison is DVD players, so unless the game consoles are acting like DVD players in terms of discs sold per unit, the focus will be on three things: attach rate, standalone player sales, and margin.

Attach rates are virtually meaningless aside from forecasting.

That forecasting is what drives business decisions - hardly meaningless.

We have *actual* hard core sales numbers...and BD is outselling HD 2:1. That is the most important number, followed closely by trend.

No, we don't have actual numbers, we have a single source that we know does not cover all the outlets. Besides which, the most important metric is NOT sales volume, it is profit margin.

Ok, back to some common ground: it is FAR to early to determine which format will win. Or if either will win. With HD making up 1% of the total sales, it's crazy early. Which means....the only logical place to be is either all behind one format (which hasn't happened, despite Sony's attempt) or format neutral, Warner's stance.

For everbody to unite behind one format the war is ended, and we can move on. This is what I want. I don't care who wins, i just want the war over. My library is heading to 50/50 BD/HD, and I see that as a real pita down the road, unless combo players become the cheap, ubiquitous DVD replacement, which I doubt.

Other than that, if you (as a studio) *HAD* to pick- and NOBODY HAS TO other than Sony- you'd have to pick the player that was SELLING MORE SOFTWARE (and lets assume profit margins are the same in either format for this), and that's BD. If you thought that HD was coming on strong, then you wouldn't commit yourself there from a business standpoint...you'd play neutral and WAIT until it was clear that the tides had changed, that a winner was declared, etc.

As for the whole paramount thing, give me a break. If they didn't have a 150 Mil sweetener, would they have made the same decision?

I do see a lot of HD players moving in the next few months. BUT...the poster that talked about UMD and petering out sales...that is a risk to the whole HD/BD movement. I watch movies on a 10ft wide screen, so the difference is pretty noticable to me. But with good upscaling, how much of a difference will there be on a 42" 720p plasma? Will J6P decide that buying 4 used movies for $20 at blockbuster is a better deal than $30 for one hd dvd or bd movie at best buy? And where will he rent them? You virtually have to go to netflix around here since nobody supports either format where i live. Remember the hardest core, highest potential HD movie buyers likely already have a player and gobs of movies...

Anyway, in short, since nobody has to commit to one side or the other, the only logical reason to do so would be to either end the war, or to cash a check. This whole "because HD will win, so get on board now" argument does not make sense.

Other than that, if you (as a studio) *HAD* to pick- and NOBODY HAS TO other than Sony- you'd have to pick the player that was SELLING MORE SOFTWARE (and lets assume profit margins are the same in either format for this), and that's BD.

But that isn't what's happening. You can say that, but Paramount/Dreamworks did otherwise.

If you thought that HD was coming on strong, then you wouldn't commit yourself there from a business standpoint...you'd play neutral and WAIT until it was clear that the tides had changed, that a winner was declared, etc.

And, again, people aren't doing that either. Blockbuster made a move VERY early on to support BD rather than play neutral and wait. Brilliant move if BD wins. Or a shortsighted business decision if not... and the recent Paramount and Venturer hardware news make it appear like the latter.

As for the whole paramount thing, give me a break. If they didn't have a 150 Mil sweetener, would they have made the same decision?

Several intelligent people with no dog in this hunt (like this guy: http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150/post/1170013317.html) think otherwise.

To assume that a multi-billion dollar company would make such a huge decision based solely on a $150 million payout is absurd. They've explained why they made the decision -- they see HD DVD as being the obvious consumer choice based on features and price. So they're backing it.

Anyway, in short, since nobody has to commit to one side or the other, the only logical reason to do so would be to either end the war, or to cash a check.

Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with this. The disagreement is with your assumption that the current 2:1 BD ratio means that BD is the obvious choice for a studio. When you look deeper at the stats, it actually seems to be the exact opposite.

But Q4 will definitely provide a lot more clarity, as we see how hardware and software sales go across formats.

A few other points:

Forecasting is important, but I worked for a few major companies in a finance capacity, and let me tell you...they forecast what they *want* to forecast. Surprisingly unobjective.

At this point in the game, HD and BD are likely not profitable. Everybody's costs to make, ship and stock extra skus is just not worth it...yet. I'd say sales volume is the key metric today.

Frankly I hate that Sony came in to confuse the market. The only plus is the competition driving down player costs, but that isn't enough. I also think that while HD had the momentum earlier in the year, that HD is gaining momentum now. Cheaper players, the paramount deal, sony's poor execution on the PS3...

But let me give you these options, as if you were a studio. Would you:

a) Dedicate yourself to BD
b) Dedicate yourself to HD
C) Wait and see

All this knowing that the studios are curretnly split..

Several intelligent people with no dog in this hunt (like this guy: http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150/post/1170013317.html) think otherwise.

I'm sorry, this has nothing to do with thread but.. "with no dog in this hunt" ?! You are a southerner aren't you, bboisvert? :p

If you HAD to pick a side (as a studio), then BD would be the way to go because you have a bigger market today.Sorry, that's not how it works. Businesses make decisions that look way beyond today (i.e. 1-year, 3-year, 5-year forecasts) on where to invest their assets for the best return. Anyone who has spent any time at all in the stock market is familiar with the warning: "Past performance does not guarantee future results." It is no different in sales, which is why successful businesses always look at where a trend is headed rather than where it's been. The trend in this case is now headed in HD DVD's direction, and arguably has been for a while.

I agree with you BobRob. But the reality is that they didn't have to switch and there is simply no clear winner at this point, nor is there going to be a clear winner anytime soon imho. There is no reason to dedicate yourself at this point. Unless you get a check for $150 mil. Thats all.

We don't know if the cheap HD players will outsell the PS3 this xmas. We don't know if Sony will have a cheap player coming out. We don't know much of anything other than the fact that HD owners buy more movies per player, and that BD is selling twice as many movies (by all acceptable industry measurements). And that each format will have its share of fantastic exclusive content.

Barring a payment, a dedicated move to HD will 1) prolong the war- bad for everybody 2) limit your total sales. It just doesn't seem like a great move for paramount. Now if Warner does it...wow, that would be something.

I agree with you BobRob. But the reality is that they didn't have to switch and there is simply no clear winner at this point, nor is there going to be a clear winner anytime soon imho. There is no reason to dedicate yourself at this point. Unless you get a check for $150 mil. Thats all.

We don't know if the cheap HD players will outsell the PS3 this xmas. We don't know if Sony will have a cheap player coming out. We don't know much of anything other than the fact that HD owners buy more movies per player, and that BD is selling twice as many movies (by all acceptable industry measurements). And that each format will have its share of fantastic exclusive content.

Barring a payment, a dedicated move to HD will 1) prolong the war- bad for everybody 2) limit your total sales. It just doesn't seem like a great move for paramount. Now if Warner does it...wow, that would be something.

On the Insider's Thread it was mentioned that the subsidy for Paramount's BD replication has now ended. If it was now costing Paramount more money to sell twice as many BDs as HD DVDs what should it do? Cut the biggest money loser and fast!

Cheers,

Grant

OMG, an article saying that Blu-ray lost.:eek:
I think if HD-DVD was to loose, this would stay a niche market

There's already thread about this:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=898571
Continue discussion there.