http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/dvd/2007-08-27-download_N.htm?csp=34

"There will be titles that will have some ripple but nothing that's going to amount to a tipping point," says Phil Swann of TVPredictions.com.

A major weapon could be the price of the players. HD DVD now holds the upper hand with a $179 add-on for Microsoft's Xbox 360 game system and Toshiba players for less than $300. Samsung and Sony sell Blu-ray players for less than $450; the Blu-ray-based PlayStation 3 starts at $499.

Swann sees the possibility of "a $99 HD DVD player this season in discount stores."

HD DVD's supporters expect that retailers may reassess their allegiances as player sales increase. "The same way I changed my mind, watch how many other people change theirs, starting with Blockbuster," DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg said last week in announcing the studios' shift.

Katzenberg said he had been skeptical about releasing films such as Shrek on high-definition discs because high prices of players precluded many families from adopting either format. Now, he expects sub-$200 HD DVD players by the holiday season. "If the consumer sees a value and wants it, retail is going to find a way to put it front and center for them," he said.

Good read, thanks. I like how Katezenberg says "The same way I changed my mind......." :)

Good read, thanks. I like how Katezenberg says "The same way I changed my mind......." :)

So Spielberg is a Blu-bois, Katzenberg is an HD DVD fan now we just need to know where Geffen sits and we’ll have the complete SKG HDM format positions. I’m betting Geffen is neutral, but I digress.

It’s nice to see HD DVD getting some positive PR for once. I think that’s the main benefit from the Paramount announcement; it belies the BD FUD that has been spewed by bloggers and “journalists” with a horse in this race. I think the BB announcement was bad for HD DVD in J6P’s eyes, but articles like this one could go a long way in reversing that perception.

Thanks for the heads-up

Dead Man's Chest only sold 57,400 units on blu-ray???? Wow, I knew the market was small, but I had no clue it was that small, unless the #'s in that article are wrong.

Dead Man's Chest only sold 57,400 units on blu-ray???? Wow, I knew the market was small, but I had no clue it was that small, unless the #'s in that article are wrong.

The market is that small.

And, while a popular title, Pirates wasn't day-and-date. So far, the only titles that have sold very well (hundreds of thousands) have been blockbuster films that come out on the same day as their standard def counterparts.

So Spielberg is a Blu-bois, Katzenberg is an HD DVD fan now we just need to know where Geffen sits and we’ll have the complete SKG HDM format positions. I’m betting Geffen is neutral, but I digress.

I thought Geffen played for the other team! ;)

Dead Man's Chest only sold 57,400 units on blu-ray???? Wow, I knew the market was small, but I had no clue it was that small, unless the #'s in that article are wrong.

Impressive (and also not-so-impressive all things considered) that "Batman Begins" has sold almost 66,000 copies only on HD-DVD. This one would easily be in the 100,000+ copies sold if Warner had released it on Blu-ray. :o

Swann sees the possibility of "a $99 HD DVD player this season in discount stores."
That's rather optimistic, unless you're probably just talking about a 1-day (Black Friday) sale or something.

Now you are seeing why a studio could be exclusive. The TOTAL pool, while technically in the milions, is really only a few hundred thousand at best, and for most titles is in the tens of thousands to just a few hundred. So a studio could easily give up the sale of 50,000 discs of several movies if it means they don't have to set up an entire seperate department for the other HD media. We are still talking chump change for all but the smallest studios. The cost of making a BD or HD-DVD in terms of coding, menus, etc is a very real expense because the volume of discs probably don't even generate enough profits cover it.

Since catalogue sales are so weak, I am always amazed the studios keep pumping them out. Obviously the main thrust are SFX heavy action movies. I don't think we are going to see much improvement in sales until the summer blockbusters hit, and even then I'll be impressed if a title can take more than 5% of its DVD counterpart in sales.

Why anyone would quote Phillip Swann for an article is beyond me. Predictions cease to be "predictions" if you keep changing your mind.

3 months ago, he was predicting $199 players for the holidays, now he's apparently changing his mind and cutting that in half.

He also predicted 3 months ago that blu-ray would be "standing victorious" in the format war by the end of 2007 and that Toshiba would join up with Sony to promote the single format.

That prediction was wrong then and it's completely laughable now.

Why anyone would quote Phillip Swann for an article is beyond me. Predictions cease to be "predictions" if you keep changing your mind.

3 months ago, he was predicting $199 players for the holidays, now he's apparently changing his mind and cutting that in half.

He also predicted 3 months ago that blu-ray would be "standing victorious" in the format war by the end of 2007 and that Toshiba would join up with Sony to promote the single format.

That prediction was wrong then and it's completely laughable now.


/agree

I don't trust this guy any further than I can throw him--and I'm a wuss, so that's not far. He appears to go with the 'in-the-now' opinion on anything. Read some of his past opinions. Laughable.

Dead Man's Chest only sold 57,400 units on blu-ray???? Wow, I knew the market was small, but I had no clue it was that small, unless the #'s in that article are wrong.

Not only is the market small, but brand new (big) movie titles sell better. It seems even a lot of the early adopter crowd at this point is not double dipping on big titles to the degree one might think.

Here's Swann in May 2007:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHSohyI5o9U

Here's him last week:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENil-gNuE1Q

LOL... is that all BD has to do? Get players down to $199, release all the classic titles, and pay off retailers? Why didn't THEY think of that... brilliant! :rolleyes:

Here's Swann in May 2007:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHSohyI5o9U

Here's him last week:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENil-gNuE1Q

LOL... is that all BD has to do? Get players down to $199, release all the classic titles, and pay off retailers? Why didn't THEY think of that... brilliant! :rolleyes:

Yeah, Sony just needs to fork out another 10 billion dollar loss and they will win the war. After that, Sony goes bankrupt. ;)

I don't trust this guy any further than I can throw him--.
"Well with your bad knee Ed you really shouldnt throw anybody."

Here's Swann in May 2007:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHSohyI5o9U

Here's him last week:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENil-gNuE1Q

LOL... is that all BD has to do? Get players down to $199, release all the classic titles, and pay off retailers? Why didn't THEY think of that... brilliant! :rolleyes:

if ever there was a voice made for silent films...