Let's say hypothetically one camp calls it quits next week and think about what that would mean for adoption of high-def optical media for movie distribution. I think this is what would happen if that were to happen.

Blu-ray Win

Toshiba and MS throws in the towel and all the HD DVD exclusives drop the format and go with Blu-ray.

Demand for HD DVD players go to next to nothing and Blu-ray player sales pickup. However with player prices being 5 to 10 times SD DVD players, adoption by general public is slow and never reach main stream status. In addition, with cost estimate of $1.5-3 billion dollars to build enough Blu-ray lines to replace DVDs, Blu-ray just cannot overcome this chicken vs. egg scenario (enough players to justify building lines vs. vice versa). Furthermore with cost and yield differential between BD-25 and BD-50, more and more Blu-ray movies are released in BD-25, albeit with advanced codecs to minimize disc space. Blu-ray becomes a semi-successful niche product akin to LDs in VHS era.

HD DVD Win

Sony and BDA throws in the towel and all Blu-ray exclusives migrate to publishing in HD DVD (even Sony and Fox)

Studios see profits in combos and start releasing big new releases in combo format only without SD DVD counterpart. There is some outcry among the non-high def public about additional cost over SD DVD, but most folks see $3-5 additional cost as being fair trade-off for getting HD DVD side even if they don't own HD DVD players. Demand for HD DVD picks up steam due to commonplace availability of HD DVD combos, and relative affordability of HD DVD players (2-3 times the cost of SD DVD players). HD DVD achieves main stream status in 5 years and almost all DVD players sold have HD DVD capabilities. Blu-ray format is resurrected from dead by "Criterion" like publisher and esoteric CE companies who start making $1000 to $2000 players that have Blu-ray capabilities in addition to HD DVD capabilities (combi player). HD DVD becomes the next DVD (with most of the general public not caring since the cost of HD DVD is now same as DVD) and Blu-ray becomes the favorite niche videophile format akin to SACD.

Paramount and DreamWorks saw the immediate benefits of supporting HD DVD exclusively. It has the BEST chance of supplanting DVD and can be easily transitioned to do so, and at a much lower cost. As more studios begin to support HD DVD this will likely happen, especially as inexpensive "DVD" players incorporate true "HD DVD" as a feature when utilizing new SoC implementations. With all Toshiba notebooks including HD DVD and an armada of Asian standalones, HD DVD will be positioned to take over the market.

Blu-ray will remain as a console format primarily.

The only problem I have with Blu-ray as a format right now, is that they don't have combo discs (dvd/blu-ray). If blu-ray becomes the HD format of choice, I hope it's not until after they've reached an agreement with the DVD forum to produce combos. Non-combos are okay for catalog releases--because we probably already have our favorites on DVD--but for the new releases, I prefer they use the combo disc until DVD's are phased out and/or blu-ray hardware is more affordable...this is simply so our movies won't be stuck to one machine for the time being.

I know this isn't a popular opinion on a board where some people have enough cash flow to afford a Blu-ray and/or HD DVD player for every room, but if you ever have to go a period of time without your HD hardware, it sure is nice to be able to flip that disc over and still watch your movies on one of the many DVD playback devices we have around our homes. I'm speaking from experience, at first I thought it a useless gimmick, now I'm a believer!

As for what would happen RIGHT NOW if ONE format wins?...I think you're right in that HD DVD would probably be an easier transition for the industry and consumers to make, economically speaking anyway. Given that, lets hope the war lasts long enough so that it won't matter either way! That way, no matter who loses, WE WIN!!!!!

To be fair, there are a couple of other scenarios that should be included:

DVD Wins

Blu-Ray and HD DVD fail to achieve notable sales numbers compared to DVD, in a repeat of SACD and DVD-Audio.

Major retailers scale back the shelf space they are willing to give to the slow selling HD disks, or drop support altogether, much like that happened with UMD (HDM fans may accuse retailers of not giving the new formats enough time). Eventually, Blu-Ray and HD DVD capable hardware makes its way into many people’s homes in game consoles and PCs, however consumers are either unaware of the formats or refuse to buy a format that doesn’t play “everywhere” (Many people have one or two pieces of equipment capable of playing SACD or DVD-Audio, but still don’t buy those disks).

Downloads Win

Apple-TV or some other device or service overshadows Blu-Ray and DVD-Audio.

Even though most video downloads are only standard-definition, they represent a change in the way people rent and watch video. The mainstream news media latches on and calls video downloads a cultural phenomenon, changing television the way the iPod changed music. All eyes turn to the battle of the download portals. Blu-Ray and HD DVD never get the attention needed to become mainstream.

I think a growing number of HDTV owners will want the best PQ possible, so HD DVD will be a logical choice since it is less expensive and the DVD moniker is a recognized and trusted name. Downloads will be great for many, but many more will prefer the convenience of a quick rental and collectors will prefer to own something tangible.

I saw a Circuit City commercial yesterday that said "All you need to get High Definition is a HDTV, a HD source, and installation from FireDog(I guess thats CC's installation team)"

That seems like a good commercial because it specifically says "HD source". Which can obviously be any number of ways to get High Definition. The number one thing the public needs to be informed about above all else is the need for a HD source in order to get real high definition.

Sadly it might come down to the name of the format.
HD-DVD would sound more familiar to the average consumer who just bought and HDTV

Sadly it might come down to the name of the format.
HD-DVD would sound more familiar to the average consumer who just bought and HDTV

Agree, "Blu-ray" looks and sounds dumb. They should have made up a better name.

I don't think it is even debateable that HD DVD would have a significantly greater chance at mass adoption than Blu-ray as things stand right now. The replication infrastructure, completed specs and compliant players, inexpensive machines, interactivity and networking, and easy transition possibly using combo discs are some critical advantages that HD DVD enjoys over Blu-ray and that would immearsurably aid mass adoption. The PS3 advantage for Blu-ray is strictly a marketing tool since it would be quickly overwhelmed by consumers purchasing HD DVD players as the sole source of HDM.

But what's the point of this? Studios are split, and for now the PS3 is the most important component of the format war and gives the BDA an invaluable (though somewhat disappointing to date) talking point for the Blu-ray install base.

Without HD-DVD, BluRay would likely become a PS3 & High End A/V format supported by very few titles from other studios and most tiles from Sony Studios.

Sony is losing money on players. Toshiba is losing money on players. Remove Toshiba too quickly from this war and BD has monopoly again. Even the other CEs are likely losing money or making very little profit on a per item basis. Prices would not fall at all on any players, and in some cases, would actually go up.

The only thing capable of bringing the prices down would be volume sales.. which wouldn't happen because the prices are too high. Studios would stop releasing so many movies on BD because of the low consumer adoption and BD would turn into a niche or PSP-type status.

If Toshiba were to bow out tomorrow, BluRay and HDM would die. The price wars and media attention are what is going to keep prices low for consumers and allow them to adopt something. I just wish they would all go neutral across the board and "may the best format win".

I don't think it is even debateable that HD DVD would have a significantly greater chance at mass adoption than Blu-ray as things stand right now. The replication infrastructure, completed specs and compliant players, inexpensive machines, interactivity and networking, and easy transition possibly using combo discs are some critical advantages that HD DVD enjoys over Blu-ray and that would immearsurably aid mass adoption.


Agreed. At the very least, Combos/Hybrids represent an important fall back position for studios to use high def in case the mass market mostly rejects the notion of wholesale replacement of DVD players.

Studios can always use combos to add high definition as a feature to DVD's while charging some premium for the feature.


The PS3 advantage for Blu-ray is strictly a marketing tool since it would be quickly overwhelmed by consumers purchasing HD DVD players as the sole source of HDM.

To be fair I think the PS3 is more than marketing tool because it accomplishes the trojan horse goal that is needed to get mainstream consumers to give high def media at least a look. People buying PS3 for games convert to blu-ray consumers at some percentage. The only problem is that percentage of conversion is very low right now, much lower than Sony projected.

Still that added burst of "trojan horsed" consumers is arguably the difference in sales performance between BD and HD right now.

But what's the point of this? Studios are split, and for now the PS3 is the most important component of the format war and gives the BDA an invaluable (though somewhat disappointing to date) talking point for the Blu-ray install base.

It's not hard to see why Studios, CE, retail and much of the industry might prefer to sell a product that:

1) Eventually requires replacement of all standard dvd players

2) Promises to defeat or severely curtail movie piracy

3) Promises to pull higher profit margins (esp. if it can do away with hd dvd)

If however studios, CE and the rest of the industry come to conclusion that these promises of higher profits may never be realized due to relative indifference of the mainstream consumers toward the value add from standard dvd to HDM, then studios may have to consider fall back solutions.

If combos/hybrids still provide some profit potential and media security for thier high def encodes studios could get serious about including them among their standard dvd offerings. As long as blu-ray looks like it could deliver on points 1,2,3 though, studios will no doubt remain split.

The problem with threads like these is that both formats are going to be around for at least the next 2 or 3 years and even in a couple of years we will get the same kind of threads. Anyone thinking that either format is going away soon is just dreaming.

The problem with threads like these is that both formats are going to be around for at least the next 2 or 3 years and even in a couple of years we will get the same kind of threads. Anyone thinking that either format is going away soon is just dreaming.


no doubt, but since a lot of people post like it's the final quarter and there are only seconds on the clock, it makes you wonder "what if" the game ended today...what would be a likely outcome? Right now it's possible the outcome would be a little different depending on the winner, I'm hoping the war lasts long enough to even things out in a way that it won't matter which format wins.

At this moment in time, if the war were to end, I think HDDVD would be the easier transition to make--I'm wondering if anyone believes differently? I know there are "blu-ray only" supporters that want the "war" over with yesterday, and some use "mass-adoption" as their reasoning, but I don't see how blu-ray would be an easier transition.

I don't really think studio support would matter post game, because all studios will go with the winner if there's money to be made...I know, that's a big "IF".

Without HD-DVD, BluRay would likely become a PS3 & High End A/V format supported by very few titles from other studios and most tiles from Sony Studios.

Sony is losing money on players. Toshiba is losing money on players. Remove Toshiba too quickly from this war and BD has monopoly again. Even the other CEs are likely losing money or making very little profit on a per item basis. Prices would not fall at all on any players, and in some cases, would actually go up.

The only thing capable of bringing the prices down would be volume sales.. which wouldn't happen because the prices are too high. Studios would stop releasing so many movies on BD because of the low consumer adoption and BD would turn into a niche or PSP-type status.

If Toshiba were to bow out tomorrow, BluRay and HDM would die. The price wars and media attention are what is going to keep prices low for consumers and allow them to adopt something. I just wish they would all go neutral across the board and "may the best format win".

The thing is that SONY is supposed to get that money back from selling video games (that they apparently aren't selling, hehe), whereas toshiba can't do that.

But I 100% agree with you. This war was good in a way that the media is focusing on it and the competence is good. Paramount going hd-dvd triggered fox to release more blu-rays.


In response to the topic starter, why do you think that blu-ray costs are going to remain high for ever?

no doubt, but since a lot of people post like it's the final quarter and there are only seconds on the clock, it makes you wonder "what if" the game ended today...what would be a likely outcome? Right now it's possible the outcome would be a little different depending on the winner, I'm hoping the war lasts long enough to even things out in a way that it won't matter which format wins.

At this moment in time, if the war were to end, I think HDDVD would be the easier transition to make--I'm wondering if anyone believes differently? I know there are "blu-ray only" supporters that want the "war" over with yesterday, and some use "mass-adoption" as their reasoning, but I don't see how blu-ray would be an easier transistion.

I don't really think studio support would matter post game, because all studios will go with the winner if there's money to be made...I know, that's a big "IF".

The way I see it, HD-DVD is the "easy way". They went all "windows vista" with the whole "legacy support", if you know what I mean. I objectively thinking that both formats are the same. As long as the picture quality (and the movie!) is good, I don't give a damn about audio codecs, interactive features or online features. I happened to chose blu-ray because I thought "hey, if the format dies, I still got a kick-ass gaming console/media center".

HD-DVD is better for a "transition". After all, the initial costs are a lot cheaper for both consumers and publishers. But only as a transition. Blu-ray can hold more data, and to be honest I'm surprised that blu-ray movies are actually using more than 30 gb.
There is no reason to think that blu-ray is gonna remain expensive for eternity, unless they make the discs out of platinum!


The bottom line is, neither format is going to replace DVD anytime soon.

The problem with threads like these is that both formats are going to be around for at least the next 2 or 3 years and even in a couple of years we will get the same kind of threads. Anyone thinking that either format is going away soon is just dreaming.

It would probably kill both formats if the format war lasts another 2 or 3 years.

Retailers are impatient. They don't like having tens of thousands dollars of disks sitting on shelves waiting until consumers feel confident enough to buy a format, not when they could fill those shelves with higher volume merchandise.