HD format war over in 18 months, says BDA

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/HD-format-war-over-in-18-months,-says-BDA-News--a0001159-p0.php)

Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, believes that the High Definition format will be over within 18 months.

As the senior director of communications at Philips as well, while Simonis doesn’t completely concede to the idea that Blu-ray will be the sure-fire winner, he does believe that the consumers will decide the format wars within the next 18 months.

The answer, surprisingly, didn't contain the information that Blu-ray would win from the chairman himself. In reflection, Simonis believes that it's difficult to give a definite answer because of the unexpected moves some companies make---such as Paramount's recent decision to support HD-DVD exclusively. Simonis stated, "Due to the fact that we have some hard competition which sometimes makes strange moves, it's very unpredictable. But I think in the next 18 months it will be very exciting to see what's going on."

After discussing the present issues, Simonis foreshadows what will come to fruition within the next 18 months. "With more products coming to market, the price erosion that will for sure happen because competition between the different players will automatically fuel that part of the business. And of course the broader support that we get from the software industry will excite the consumer very heavily."

The HD wars are certainly an interesting one; at least we seem to think so. They require no battles, or actual casualties. Instead, a couple of corporations choose what is best for them, with the consumer's want left at the end of the rope.

Stay updated on PSU for more information.

The Blu-ray edifice is starting to crack.

Wasn't this format war supposed to be over by summer of 2007??Or was it at the end of 2007??I am confused!!:p

I thought they already won?

Yeah, where can I find an updated and unbias sales chart for HD-DVD and Blu-ray?

BDA has been claiming HD DVD dead/dying/dead within months for some time. Atleast now they've given a more specific time. 18 months!

For once I wish they would just keep there trap shut and do what they do well. That is to say put out some great quality High Def disks. All this PR buisness is just crap.

Same BS from BD different day...

That's strange. I clearly recall someone from Sony saying around E3 that the war would be over within the next few months. And now suddenly it's become 18 months? Is their crystal ball malfunctioning?

How exactly do you end something that's ended?

Now that we have a timetable according to BDA.
Do we really need to wait all of 18 months before BD capitulates?:D

He is sounding like some of the German Generals halfway through the second world war...

Hmmmm... 18 months is the rumored length of the Paramount deal.

Postponing the end of war... postponing the end of war...
Who rules the BDA? Washington? :D :D :D
LOLOL

Eighteen months from now would be March 3, 2009. By then, the format war would have been going for close to three years...and that includes two more Christmas shopping seasons, too. If it's not over by then, it probably would be safe to assume that someone would at least be in more of a position of overt dominance...

Having said that: shut up, BDA. :)

Thank you, Nousemercenary, for making us laugh - great day to be an HD DVD supporter! :)

HD format war over in 18 months

glad someone told me, usually i'm the last to know such things
:D

I thought they already won?

They did. The president announced it in his 'Mission Accomplished' speech aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln............... Wait, what war are we talking about?

Well I agree blu ray will likely win but I would guess 2 years... Other unpredictable moves could shift this tometable either way.

There was a movie about this war, wasn't there? I believe the title was: "Suppose they gave a war and nobody came?"

Has the SACD/DVD Audio war ended yet? 18 months from when? Both formats are doing their best to confuse and alienate consumers.

18 months? I think he is being generous. IMO the war will be over in 12 months or not at all.

J6P is not a consumer of HDM, even at $199 priced players. As a matter of fact, J6P doesn't even have an HDTV so HDM is worthless to him.

I strongly doubt the studios want to go into Xmas 2008 with 2 formats when J6P will be getting into HDM. They started the war - they can end the war - format neutral or one format will prevail.

This is just getting OLD. Talk about lack of creativity.

This is just getting OLD. Talk about lack of creativity.


We need all these BS threads to kill time until the wave of CEDIA threads begin Wednesday:D

Yeah, where can I find an updated and unbias sales chart for HD-DVD and Blu-ray?


There's no such thing.

Do you want sale units? Revenue? total discs? Including or excluding give-away promos? Including or excluding in-box freebies? B&M, internat, or both?

There is NO single source of complete information. Even the much-loved Nielsen numbers are not complete - at least not in the form that non-subscribers can look at.

The only real way to know is to look at the sales numbers for each company, and you certainly won't get that information.

The closest thing we have is when we see a company make a decision based on their past or expected future performance. However, with the marketing and incentive deals that are floating around on both sides, it's well-nigh impossible to separate real sales impact from cost to manufacture, incentives, loyalty, patent royalties, etc.

Got a reliable crystal ball?

I think the war is over in seven years.

I thought HD DVD was already dead? Remember CES '05? CES '06? When Blu-Ray launched? When the PS3 launched? When Casino Royale was released? Blah Blah Blah these BDA people need new talking points.

For once I wish they would just keep there trap shut and do what they do well.

How does HE know when the war will end. Does he have a crystal ball? What is this incessant need for the BDA to regularly talk about the state of the war and make proclamations about it? There is something in that PR psychology that so permeates that organization, they just can't keep their traps shut. It's like they are kings over us peasants and serfs, and they make ceremonial pronouncements.

'By order of the King, this format war is over. Return to your fields, and farms, and watch Pirates Of The Caribbean'. Bleh.

Just don't say anything - release movies, get BD50 lines working, get players out with profile 1.1/2.0, and make whatever strategic moves you need to make to try to win. Just stop with these ridiculous proclamations,

Did any of you even READ the article?

If not, do so. What he said makes sense. In fact, it's one of the most level-headed and HONEST statements to come out of the BDA in a long time.

I came into the thread with my ire up, but having READ the damn statement, I respect it, and Simonis for his candor.

Sheesh.

They say it because alot of peoples jobs are on the line if this thing fails so these announcements strings everyone along so to give them time to get their resume's in order and to find new employment. :D

Did any of you even READ the article?

If not, do so. What he said makes sense. In fact, it's one of the most level-headed and HONEST statements to come out of the BDA in a long time.

I came into the thread with my ire up, but having READ the damn statement, I respect it, and Simonis for his candor.

Sheesh.

I did. It appears to be a much much softer position than before which indicates that the BDA is much less confident. It also gives wiggle room compared to their previous predictions. The bad news it still makes a prediction that he really can't make so why make it ?

Art

Since a lot of people have problem reading this..here I'll quote the article:


Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, believes that the High Definition format will be over within 18 months.

As the senior director of communications at Philips as well, while Simonis doesn’t completely concede to the idea that Blu-ray will be the sure-fire winner, he does believe that the consumers will decide the format wars within the next 18 months.

The answer, surprisingly, didn't contain the information that Blu-ray would win from the chairman himself. In reflection, Simonis believes that it's difficult to give a definite answer because of the unexpected moves some companies make---such as Paramount's recent decision to support HD-DVD exclusively. Simonis stated, "Due to the fact that we have some hard competition which sometimes makes strange moves, it's very unpredictable. But I think in the next 18 months it will be very exciting to see what's going on."

After discussing the present issues, Simonis foreshadows what will come to fruition within the next 18 months. "With more products coming to market, the price erosion that will for sure happen because competition between the different players will automatically fuel that part of the business. And of course the broader support that we get from the software industry will excite the consumer very heavily."

The HD wars are certainly an interesting one; at least we seem to think so. They require no battles, or actual casualties. Instead, a couple of corporations choose what is best for them, with the consumer's want left at the end of the rope.

Stay updated on PSU for more information.

Wow..this is the most level headed response and it is VERY clear that BDA is actually concerned.

Art, yes you are right..they are not giving themselves wiggle room as the "WE WON" strategy is hugely backfiring on them. But it is interesting to see that Phillips executive talking in this way? CE Companies having second thoughts?

Wow..this is the most level headed response and it is VERY clear that BDA is actually concerned.

Art, yes you are right..they are not giving themselves wiggle room as the "WE WON" strategy is hugely backfiring on them. But it is interesting to see that Phillips executive talking in this way? CE Companies having second thoughts?

Phillips, recently, has not done well in the HD market, specifically HDTV's and probably BD players. Their new 7100 player may be a rebadge. In some PM's back and forth to Keith Nack of SIGMA - he told me that this player was a surprise to him.

The BDA cannot ignore the fact that a major studio said "ta-ta" and joined HD DVD. So yes, I totally agree that the BDA has toned down their "we won" forecast and are dealing with a new playing field.

May mean that continuing with a split format will mean that a critical mass can't be generated by either side.

When this happens, people walk away and look for the next opportunity to make money. SACD/DVD-A is a perfect example.

Technology doesn't stand still and stores like BB/CC won't waste shelf space on merchandise that doesn't sell. At my local stores, it isn't selling.

The issues of dual incompatible formats; high hardware and software prices; and limited title selections combine to make this an easy technology to pass on.

I see they keep moving the date on us. :D

Reminds me of a joke by late comedian Henny Youngman:

"Doctor tells his patient, you're dying, I only give you six months to live.
Patient says I don't have any money to pay you yet...So doctor gives him another six months." :D

May mean that continuing with a split format will mean that a critical mass can't be generated by either side.
Sounds like its time for Blu-ray to just throw in the towel. :)

Did any of you even READ the article?

If not, do so. What he said makes sense. In fact, it's one of the most level-headed and HONEST statements to come out of the BDA in a long time.

I came into the thread with my ire up, but having READ the damn statement, I respect it, and Simonis for his candor.

Sheesh.
It honestly looks like 20+ people responded with the usual [insert mindless, cookie-cutter cheapshot at BDA here followed by a smiley face] post and didn't even read the article, or at least didn't comprehend it for what it was. Basically it shows what goes on in their minds: even when the BD person's comment is not a declaration of victory, they spin it in their own minds to pretend that it is, and then they accuse the BD person of doing the spinning.

It's like if you tell a HD DVD person "The sky is blue," they will nastily retort, "Not at night!!!! And not when it's cloudy!!!! That's two situations where it's not blue, versus only one situation where it IS blue (when it is sunny). Therefore the not-blues beat the blues 2 to 1. Haha!!!! :D"

Now I'm not pretending that the BD fanboys are any better, but the HD DVD fanboys are more predictable and it's getting old. At least beatboy is entertaining.

I guess Sony just formalized their exit strategy. 18 months it is.

There's no such thing.

Do you want sale units? Revenue? total discs?

Somebody (didn't keep the reference, sorry) at the BD camp was crowing that they have shipped a million units of discs into the USA so far.

So, if that's true, even the "1% of the market (units) in 2007" doesn't look possible...

Did any of you even READ the article?

If not, do so. What he said makes sense. In fact, it's one of the most level-headed and HONEST statements to come out of the BDA in a long time.

I came into the thread with my ire up, but having READ the damn statement, I respect it, and Simonis for his candor.

Sheesh.

While at first blush I'm inclined to agree with you- I think the statements are little more self-serving than they appear to be on the surface.
Frankly, I think even 18 months is optimistic, and the only way I can see that working out is if Bd throws in the towel at that time-
Now, since I see Bd as being in a more precarious position at the moment than HD DVD (which many Bd fans will be unable to comprehend) I see the purpose of these statements being that if they can keep fueling the uncertainty and doubt that most interested *but unaffiliated* consumers feel at this point, while at the same time point to a glimmer of hope down the road ("don't do anything now folks, 'cause 18 months from now everything will be clear one way or the other...and don't you really want to wait after all?") then they buy themselves time to get their players up to full spec and down to the realm of under $200, and their replciation (yield, time, cost) issues more or less fully resolved.

Originally the BDA wanted a quick decisive win. They did not want to compete here. That was the reason for all the perception spinning ("War is over! Mission Accomplished!")- now they find they NEED slow adoption just to be able to catch up in terms of infrastructure.
the 2:1 sales ratio is meaningless in this climate. It is like two local bakers competeing over who can supply the cupcakes to the local supermarkets, when the object for both is to become a national brand . Just because the one baker is outselling the other consistently in 2 or 3 local stores, does not mean they are the bakery in a better position to scale to supplying a national chain of grocery stores.
It sounds like Simonis is acknowledging this- and while he may be retarding his own formats adoption over the next 18 months with the expressions of uncertainty over how this will all turn out, he is actually trying to buy it time and breathing room because he knows they are seriously outmatched in the ability to scale efficently now.

WOW! What a MAJOR change of tune for the Bluray camp!! For the last 6 months, they have been claiming the war is over already and that HD DVD is dead! Now all of a sudden, they are asking for another 18 months before calling "time"? WHAT, you may ask, is behind this change of strategy??

HD format war over in 18 months, says BDA

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/HD-format-war-over-in-18-months,-says-BDA-News--a0001159-p0.php)

EASY - He's just trying to buy time now...

Knowing that they were NOT able to succeed at the "quick win" this year, they are now faced with the un-enviable task of trying to stretch the "war" out another 2 years, so that they can get the manfacturing technology and the players fixed...

He's trying to avoid the war being "closed" in the next 12 months, when HD DVD will take a commanding lead based on manufacturing advantages and cheaper players.

Suffice it to say - this is a MAJOR SWITCH for the Bluray camp!

A VERY major switch!

Why else do you think they would suddenly admit that the war ISN'T over NOW, like they have been claiming for over 6 months??

Why the sudden attempt to buy themselves another 2 years??

It's plain to see they realize that HD DVD has managed to survive... and now they are scared s**tless that they'll have to compete with cheaper, better players, and a much less expensive and better functioning manufacturing base.

It's plain to see they realize that HD DVD has managed to survive... and now they are scared s**tless that they'll have to compete with cheaper, better players, and a much less expensive and better functioning manufacturing base.

LOL.
I got 'to market first', but you win for expressing the exact same thoughts more efficently :D

WOW! What a MAJOR change of tune for the Bluray camp!! For the last 6 months, they have been claiming the war is over already and that HD DVD is dead! Now all of a sudden, they are asking for another 18 months before calling "time"? WHAT, you may ask, is behind this change of strategy??



EASY - He's just trying to buy time now...

Knowing that they were NOT able to succeed at the "quick win" this year, they are now faced with the un-enviable task of trying to stretch the "war" out another 2 years, so that they can get the manfacturing technology and the players fixed...

He's trying to avoid the war being "closed" in the next 12 months, when HD DVD will take a commanding lead based on manufacturing advantages and cheaper players.

Suffice it to say - this is a MAJOR SWITCH for the Bluray camp!

A VERY major switch!

Why else do you think they would suddenly admit that the war ISN'T over NOW, like they have been claiming for over 6 months??

Why the sudden attempt to buy themselves another 2 years??

It's plain to see they realize that HD DVD has managed to survive... and now they are scared s**tless that they'll have to compete with cheaper, better players, and a much less expensive and better functioning manufacturing base.

Excellen post and surmation as always Rjam. :)

It's fairly clear that the BDA's strategery was for a quick kill, and it seems to be what was promised to supporting studios. It will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to fight in the rounds they never thought they'd be in.

Since a lot of people have problem reading this..here I'll quote the article:
Yes - this is a definite change of tune for them.

But what he is clearly saying in that statement is that the BD camp needs more time to get cheaper players to market - he clearly mentions "price erosion" as being something that time will bring.

They are up the creek, right now, and they know that they have "lost" the battle for the "quick win".

They are now "begging" for their studio partners to "hang in there" while they get the other problems ironed out for the long term.

My answer? "FORGET IT, BUBS!"

They told EVERYONE they were ready to win this war! And they WEREN'T...

NOW they are saying that I should wait ANOTHER TWO YEARS before getting tons of movie releases on HD Optical Media??? NO WAAAAY!

I refuse to wait another TWO YEARS before getting HD satisfaction...

They lost their chance, as I've been saying...

It's time for the BD STUDIOS to go NEUTRAL and start releasing to BOTH formats right now. Why should Disney, MGM, etc be hanging out there in the wind for ANOTHER TWO YEARS because the Bluray camp LIED about how ready they were and when their problems would be fixed?

Now's the time for us as consumers to say: "NO WAY ! I refuse to wait another 18 to 24 months for the BD camp to solve their massive problems! Support HD DVD now!"

LOL.
I got 'to market first', but you win for expressing the exact same thoughts more efficently :D
Indeed you did, Paulidan! :) I replied after reading the story, but before reading your post, which just "pipped" me at the post, so to speak :)

I'm glad we all agree, tho, as that is a very positive symbol. The BDA have acknowledged that they have lost their chance at a quick win, and are now desperately trying to negotiate extra time to fix the problems with the format.

This new "18 months" figure is VERY significant, as it shows how much time they feel will be need to get things working - which really translates into another 2 years.

Scr**'em...

It's fairly clear that the BDA's strategery was for a quick kill, and it seems to be what was promised to supporting studios. It will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to fight in the rounds they never thought they'd be in.
Yes - they lost Round 1 and predicted to everyone that they would get the K'O in Round2, which they did not get...

So now they are asking everyone to let them fight till Round 18 or 24, as they think they might win then... :p

see this is where I think the BDA is fortunate- consumer apathy over this technology is going to give them the time and breathing room they absolutely need.

This isn't going to be decided in the next 18 months. It never was. Not back when BDA thought they could win it quick, and not now when HD DVD thinks it has an advantage.
The technology simply does not present a compelling, killer application, over what the majority of consumers already have now.

Th big + that HD DVD has going for it, is that it is flexible enough to phase in slowly (each year seeing a few more new releases released in a combo-only form) and just insinuate itself into people collections so that when it comes time to replace their primary players in 2 or 3 years, they go for the one that has the 'extra feature' of being able to take advantage of those HD DVDs they've happened to accumulate in the meantime...because they was no alternative release available.
So they go back and watch those, and then reflexively they buy the HD DVD in the future as more and more dvd releases begin to be phased out and replaced with a $2 or $3 more HD DVD.

the tide is turning towards HD DVD.

Jacob

How exactly do you end something that's ended?

Fire it up again I guess?

Yes - this is a definite change of tune for them.

But what he is clearly saying in that statement is that the BD camp needs more time to get cheaper players to market - he clearly mentions "price erosion" as being something that time will bring.

They are up the creek, right now, and they know that they have "lost" the battle for the "quick win".

They are now "begging" for their studio partners to "hang in there" while they get the other problems ironed out for the long term.

My answer? "FORGET IT, BUBS!"

They told EVERYONE they were ready to win this war! And they WEREN'T...

NOW they are saying that I should wait ANOTHER TWO YEARS before getting tons of movie releases on HD Optical Media??? NO WAAAAY!

I refuse to wait another TWO YEARS before getting HD satisfaction...

They lost their chance, as I've been saying...

It's time for the BD STUDIOS to go NEUTRAL and start releasing to BOTH formats right now. Why should Disney, MGM, etc be hanging out there in the wind for ANOTHER TWO YEARS because the Bluray camp LIED about how ready they were and when their problems would be fixed?

Now's the time for us as consumers to say: "NO WAY ! I refuse to wait another 18 to 24 months for the BD camp to solve their massive problems! Support HD DVD now!"

Great minds....:D

The change in tone, the recent statements from the BDA and the turn of events makes me believe that the BDA prepared for this format war as a 100 meter sprint but half-way down the track they've realized that this is more like a marathon. :eek: Now, the problem is that most of the energy has been spent trying to win the sprint but its actually not a sprint. :D

HD-DVD is the people's format that has weathered many storms but persevered, survived and come out stronger. That is power you can not buy.

I am still waiting for this player promised :mad:

Sony Betamax/Blu-Ray Combo Recorder
http://tech.yahoo.com/pr/sony-betamax-blu-ray-combo-recorder/1994710853

This format war was invented by Warner and Toshiba.

Proof:
http://lists.mpegif.org/pipermail/news/2002-March/000063.html

Toshiba and Warner could have signed on with Blu-ray if they wanted to and contributed changes to make it better rather than "invent" a different format later on.

Yes - this is a definite change of tune for them.

But what he is clearly saying in that statement is that the BD camp needs more time to get cheaper players to market - he clearly mentions "price erosion" as being something that time will bring.

They are up the creek, right now, and they know that they have "lost" the battle for the "quick win".

They are now "begging" for their studio partners to "hang in there" while they get the other problems ironed out for the long term.

My answer? "FORGET IT, BUBS!"

They told EVERYONE they were ready to win this war! And they WEREN'T...

NOW they are saying that I should wait ANOTHER TWO YEARS before getting tons of movie releases on HD Optical Media??? NO WAAAAY!

I refuse to wait another TWO YEARS before getting HD satisfaction...

They lost their chance, as I've been saying...

It's time for the BD STUDIOS to go NEUTRAL and start releasing to BOTH formats right now. Why should Disney, MGM, etc be hanging out there in the wind for ANOTHER TWO YEARS because the Bluray camp LIED about how ready they were and when their problems would be fixed?

Now's the time for us as consumers to say: "NO WAY ! I refuse to wait another 18 to 24 months for the BD camp to solve their massive problems! Support HD DVD now!"

well put...i call for all studios to go neutral. Let us decide who wins this war ;)

This format war was invented by Warner and Toshiba.

Proof:
http://lists.mpegif.org/pipermail/news/2002-March/000063.html

Toshiba and Warner could have signed on with Blu-ray if they wanted to and contributed changes to make it better rather than "invent" a different format later on.

The allegedly invented format is stronger than it was yesterday. The proof is in the pudding.

The same Warner Bros. still supports Blu-Ray [which throws your argument out the window] and has been screaming out for interactivity for their Blu-Ray releases.

This format war was invented by Warner and Toshiba.

Proof:
http://lists.mpegif.org/pipermail/news/2002-March/000063.html

Toshiba and Warner could have signed on with Blu-ray if they wanted to and contributed changes to make it better rather than "invent" a different format later on.

I see that you pick and chose the parts that you chose to believe and discard. :rolleyes:

PARIS - The look of the next generation of digital video disks got
harder to call when the DVD Forum's Steering Committee voted this
week to approve the use of low-bit-rate compression for
high-definition DVD.

The DVD Forum's decision, made at a meeting Tuesday (Feb. 26) in
Tokyo, to stick with a red-laser-based scheme but switch to
low-bit-rate compression, came only a week after nine of the world's
biggest electronics companies agreed to promote a blue-laser-based
format for next-generation video and computer optical disks. That
format, the Blu-ray Disc, was developed outside the forum, but all
nine of the initial backers are forum members.

I have no doubt that something will be decided in the next 18 months :)

Unfortunately, Mr. Simonis' comments are spread among three articles. I found the following quote to be the most shocking of all. He really should not have made it as it negates the dominant advantage of Blu-ray:

"So to download a movie of 25GB over the internet, I wish the consumer a lot of success today and hopefully the day after you might have all the content in one form. But with Blu-ray you can buy it all in one go and it's top quality at an affordable price."

Not only has he now negated the advantage of 50GB discs on blu-ray, but he also negated higher bandwidth requirements for the apparent successor to HDM (downloads). It's now straight from the horses mouth: 25GB is enough. Sorry folks, game over!

Doug

well put...i call for all studios to go neutral. Let us decide who wins this war ;)

If all studios and manufacturers were neutral from day 1, there would be no format war at this time and there would be no Blu-Ray. Sony can't let that happen. It's their eternal trend to stuff proprietary formats down the consumers' throats and win a format war for once. Its a company on a constant downward spiral.

There was a time when Sony was well respected for its reference G90 and now they are competing with the likes of Qualia / Ruby / Pearl / Diamond / Stone! That's not going up or maintaining your standard. They're taking a beating everywhere [consumer divisions] except professional broadcasting equipment. The only strategy is to capitalize by taking the first mover advantage before other companies venture into the same area and introduce better products to hurt Sony bad.

Very odd.

It almost seems like there is more trouble a-brew than just the Paramount deal, because I can't see that being a big enough issue that they would admit they don't have the whole thing just sewn up as usual.

I think they might have less $ to throw at incentives that they did a year ago, and it may be harder to keep everyone happy without them.

I don't see this statement as an overly confident one.

As a Blu-Ray supporter, I wish the BDA would spend less time making proclamations about their imminent victory and more time working towards that end. I can think of five things right now that would do more to help their position in the battle than yet another haughty proclamation of victory long before such a thing even means anything.

So, in closing:

Less talk, more action.

This format war was invented by Warner and Toshiba.

Proof:
http://lists.mpegif.org/pipermail/news/2002-March/000063.html

Toshiba and Warner could have signed on with Blu-ray if they wanted to and contributed changes to make it better rather than "invent" a different format later on.

LOL, the format war was invented by the BDA by bringing to market a product that was not ready for sale. A shifting spec that isn't even completely in place yet and prices for HW that are too high for wide acceptance don't make for a lot of warm fuzzies in the marketplace.

rdjam smells blood in the water .... I am sure others do also. This is a major flinch from the usual rhetoric out of the BDA. Where is Andy Parsons, spokesman of CES 2007?

The allegedly invented format is stronger than it was yesterday. The proof is in the pudding.

The same Warner Bros. still supports Blu-Ray [which throws your argument out the window] and has been screaming out for interactivity for their Blu-Ray releases.
The proof is in the weekly sales ratios, the year to date ratio and the since inception that HD DVD blew its lead in the US a year ago. Most other markets are 80+ BD. When was the last time HD DVD broke +45% weekly?

Warner later joined the BDA board after deciding to support Blu-ray. Things change.

Who is screaming for gimmicks? I tried the features on a couple HD DVD discs. I have to say that I would not even play them through a whole movie even once unless I was bored out of my skull.

I buy discs for movies, not clips. I rarely listen to commentaries on DVD/Blu-ray let alone look at extras.

How can a war they won at CES2007 be over in 18months!? How does the math work at the BDA!?

How can a war they won at CES2007 be over in 18months!? How does the math work at the BDA!?

Who won at CES2007? Why didn't they tell anyone?

Would not be surprised if this gentleman had to look for another job soon.

HD format war over in 18 months, says BDA

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/HD-format-war-over-in-18-months,-says-BDA-News--a0001159-p0.php)

I swear I read this article before... Ah yes, here it is:
Engadget - Jan 08, 2007 (http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/08/blu-ray-disc-association-declares-victory-over-hd-dvd/)

Ah, but Nox there is a difference. This time they are declaring defeat.

Doug

Gosh-darnit - I just can't wait for CEDIA! :p

I thought they already announced they won a few times now? After the 5th or 6th time it gets kinda boring.

Gosh-darnit - I just can't wait for CEDIA! :p

I think we all are.:)

These declarations only attempt to hide what's in plan sight. If you look beyond the proclamation you will clearly see the problems BDA is faced.

I sincerely hope that he is wrong. I want both formats to survive and keep each other honest.

The proof is in the weekly sales ratios, the year to date ratio and the since inception that HD DVD blew its lead in the US a year ago. Most other markets are 80+ BD. When was the last time HD DVD broke +45% weekly?

Warner later joined the BDA board after deciding to support Blu-ray. Things change.

Who is screaming for gimmicks? I tried the features on a couple HD DVD discs. I have to say that I would not even play them through a whole movie even once unless I was bored out of my skull.

I buy discs for movies, not clips. I rarely listen to commentaries on DVD/Blu-ray let alone look at extras.


Your running out of excuses. So now the constant mantra is

2-1
2-1
2-1

It used to be

"We have overwhelming studio support"

OOPS

"But its the bit rates"


"no one wants extra's"


but but but but but

The proof is in the weekly sales ratios, the year to date ratio and the since inception that HD DVD blew its lead in the US a year ago. Most other markets are 80+ BD. When was the last time HD DVD broke +45% weekly?

Warner later joined the BDA board after deciding to support Blu-ray. Things change.

Who is screaming for gimmicks? I tried the features on a couple HD DVD discs. I have to say that I would not even play them through a whole movie even once unless I was bored out of my skull.

I buy discs for movies, not clips. I rarely listen to commentaries on DVD/Blu-ray let alone look at extras.

So you are judging the rest of the world on what you do and what you want? Isn't that being naive?

Man to inhabit Neptune in 2021, says BDA.

The proof is in the weekly sales ratios, the year to date ratio and the since inception that HD DVD blew its lead in the US a year ago. Most other markets are 80+ BD. When was the last time HD DVD broke +45% weekly?

Warner later joined the BDA board after deciding to support Blu-ray. Things change.

Who is screaming for gimmicks? I tried the features on a couple HD DVD discs. I have to say that I would not even play them through a whole movie even once unless I was bored out of my skull.

I buy discs for movies, not clips. I rarely listen to commentaries on DVD/Blu-ray let alone look at extras.

I thought you bought movies for menus?

Hmmmm... 18 months is the rumored length of the Paramount deal.

Right you are, I smell a feeble attempt to lend further credence to their 18 month and 150 mil FUD.

"Don't buy that HD DVD player for $200, we will be back on Paramount and Dreamworks in 18 months. Then we will win, you'll see"

Yeah right. A whole hell-of-a-lot can happen in 18 months, including more studios support for HD DVD if people start to like the idea of buying the affordable one with the finished specs this holiday.

Did any of you even READ the article?

I stopped reading when he said this was "exciting".

And for what it is worth, if it is really over in 18 months, that is when I will buy and not a moment before.

I was sure I read a statement from Paramount stating outright that the 18 month exclusivity story going around was false, and that their exclusivity was indefinite.

Someone made a thread about it not so long ago here at AVS.

EDIT: And here it is: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=894515 Indefinite commitment to HD DVD. No 18 month exclusive deal, straight from the top.

Paramount claims they made the choice that was best for their future in HD media.

So then how does a story like this one get put up today (nearly two weeks later) on yahoo news: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070903/tc_nm/highdefinition_war_dc

It has the "18 month exclusivity" language all over it.

I guess there are still people in the BDA feeding these journalists the "18 month" line, but apparently these journalists made no calls to Paramount to confirm the data.

I wonder how much longer these journalists will take the BDA press releases at face value? They can't enjoy getting burned all the time.

The issues of dual incompatible formats; high hardware and software prices; and limited title selections combine to make this an easy technology to pass on.

Except that it provides the best picture and sound ever available in the home.

Art

Except that it provides the best picture and sound ever available in the home.

Art

But not by much.

I swear I read this article before... Ah yes, here it is:
Engadget - Jan 08, 2007 (http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/08/blu-ray-disc-association-declares-victory-over-hd-dvd/)

There is nothing stopping them from continuing these victory dances since their credibilty is already down the $hitter. They don't care except they perhaps feel that if they continue long enough the perception rather than the reality will hurt HDDVD and as we know in other things this is sound behavior as it pays off eg. Monster cables.

One just has to shrug. Places like Blockbuster will be renting only half the available titles for a long time it seems.

Except that it provides the best picture and sound ever available in the home.

Art

The average consumer already believes that they have that. Now the studios and CEs need to tell the consumer they were just kidding and CD and DVD weren't HD and perfect. I doubt it will work.

Phillips executive talking in this way? CE Companies having second thoughts

Didn't Philips sell it's optical division to BenQ? If so what are they doing heading the BDA in europe?

Where is Andy Parsons, BDA spokesman of CES 2007?

Hopefully he'll be at Cedia.

I thought you bought movies for menus?
No, it I bought movies solely for the menus, I would have steered clear of any Universal titles.
:rolleyes:

but but but but but
Are you trying to tell us that you ran out of intelligent things to say?

I'm trying really hard to parse your message for anything worthy of discussion but I'm coming up empty.

Are you trying to tell us that you ran out of intelligent things to say?

I'm trying really hard to parse your message for anything worthy of discussion but I'm coming up empty.
Did your other moniker get suspended?

Gosh-darnit - I just can't wait for CEDIA! :p

Me too! :eek:

every guy and his mom in the BDA is coming out of the woodwork with press releases....is bluray really starting to feel the pressure or what?

One vote for not posting anymore press releases from Joe BDA member.

I want the BDA to realease a press release about an upcoming press release they'll be having. That would really put a smile on my face :)

Did your other moniker get suspended?

Now that is funny. :D

Talk about a 180... I never would have expected the BDA to go from "We won the format war! It's over! We WOOOOONNNNNNNN!" in Jan. 2007 to "Uhh.... the war will last at least 18 months".

Hard to tell what they're predicting/claiming at any given moment... they need to stop drinking the bong water.

The average consumer already believes that they have that. Now the studios and CEs need to tell the consumer they were just kidding and CD and DVD weren't HD and perfect. I doubt it will work.

My point was easy to pass on for whom. IMO this just isn't going to touch DVD sales at it's peak even if you could see God when the FBI logo came up. This will not be niche but not J6P media either...never.

Art

My point was easy to pass on for whom. IMO this just isn't going to touch DVD sales at it's peak even if you could see God when the FBI logo came up. This will not be niche but not J6P media either...never.

Art

Yeah, if you have FP, there's no going back once you've seen it, but most folks don't have a display of sufficient size, and/or don't sit close enough to make the difference so instantly apparent.

Talk about a 180... I never would have expected the BDA to go from "We won the format war! It's over! We WOOOOONNNNNNNN!" in Jan. 2007 to "Uhh.... the war will last at least 18 months".

Hard to tell what they're predicting/claiming at any given moment... they need to stop drinking the bong water.

Again it's the "18 month" part that's telling, what sounds like a moment of dissembling is a thinly-veiled stab at suggesting the Paramount deal is within measurable distance of it's end. Trouble is ya can only fool some of the people some of the time, I hope.

It's an effort to suppress HD DVD sales.

It's an effort to suppress HD DVD sales.

I agree. We know the 18 months rumor was denied by Paramount, yet they persist with that rumor as well as the $150million figure.

I get the feeling that the BDA will try and burn the HD optical market to the ground if the tide turns completely against them, and a win becomes impossible.

It feels like they have already started on this course of action. This new tone seems meant to destroy confidence not only in HD DVD… but the HD optical market itself.

Did your other moniker get suspended?
What are you on about? This is my only account.

I agree. We know the 18 months rumor was denied by Paramount, yet they persist with that rumor as well as the $150million figure.

I get the feeling that the BDA will try and burn the HD optical market to the ground if the tide turns completely against them, and a win becomes impossible.

It feels like they have already started on this course of action. This new tone seems meant to destroy confidence not only in HD DVD… but the HD optical market itself.

Or forestall adoption until they have some of their issues are settled. Again, I hope there comes a time when this not a viable tactic for them.

Or forestall adoption until they have some of their issues are settled. Again, I hope there comes a time when this not a viable tactic for them.
I think you've hit this one on the head.

The BDA game to date, and Sony's, seems to have been to make sure no one else succeeds if they can't.

Having lost the short game, they are now blatantly trying to keep consumers out of the market for another 18 months.

If I were a studio decision-maker I'd be pretty pissed off at this new timeline revision - especially as in 2 years the opportunity to have EITHER format take over DVD's momentum may be totally dead.

The time is now - let the BD folks lock themselves together in a closet for the next 18 months and have a private foam-party. We've got better things to do than wait another 2 years for them to get themselves sorted out.

Or forestall adoption until they have some of their issues are settled. Again, I hope there comes a time when this not a viable tactic for them.

I don't know. They have never tried to cast doubt on the entire HD optical market before.

This seems a bit more dire.

I don't know. They have never tried to cast doubt on the entire HD optical market before.

This seems a bit more dire.

Dire it may be, nobody said corporations make rational decisions when backed into a corner.

I don't know. They have never tried to cast doubt on the entire HD optical market before.

This seems a bit more dire.

Desperation, apathy, fear, confusion?...:D

Maybe they mean it will take eighteen months for BD 2.0 to be implemented. BD 2.0 will end the war, they think?

Sony HDTV Downloads to Challenge Apple

http://www.tvpredictions.com/sonydownloads090407.htm

The newspaper reports that Sony will allow viewers to download programs via the video game systems and watch them on High-Definition TVs. There is no word on when the service will launch; Sony refused to comment on WSJ's report, the newspaper said.

I agree. We know the 18 months rumor was denied by Paramount, yet they persist with that rumor as well as the $150million figure.

I get the feeling that the BDA will try and burn the HD optical market to the ground if the tide turns completely against them, and a win becomes impossible.

It feels like they have already started on this course of action. This new tone seems meant to destroy confidence not only in HD DVD… but the HD optical market itself.

:(....i knew this would happen. Ever since the Paramount annoucement HD DVD fanboys are starting to sound like Blu-Ray fanboys. Back then every BD fan kept saying Toshiba wanted to stop mass adoption, push downloads, and HD DVD is dead. Since Paramount Ive read so many times Blu-Ray is dead and now people are actually saying Sony is in it to kill off HD movies for downloads.

Hopefully one of the 2 officially dies off soon so the fanboys can stop arguing

:(....i knew this would happen. Ever since the Paramount annoucement HD DVD fanboys are starting to sound like Blu-Ray fanboys. Back then every BD fan kept saying Toshiba wanted to stop mass adoption, push downloads, and HD DVD is dead. Since Paramount Ive read so many times Blu-Ray is dead and now people are actually saying Sony is in it to kill off HD movies for downloads.

Hopefully one of the 2 officially dies off soon so the fanboys can stop arguing
I am hoping they both die off because I don't think the arguing would stop if only one died off. I think one dying off would mean a lot of immature gloating on one side and a lot of bitter remarks on the other. Meanwhile, teenage PS3 owners/fans on the PS3 forums are maturely defending the xbox 360 from the extreme PS3 fanboys who talk smack about it. Go figure.

I am hoping they both die off because I don't think the arguing would stop if only one died off. I think one dying off would mean a lot of immature gloating on one side and a lot of bitter remarks on the other. Meanwhile, teenage PS3 owners/fans on the PS3 forums are maturely defending the xbox 360 from the extreme PS3 fanboys who talk smack about it. Go figure.

i would like one to live because im getting a projector in the next month or so and dont want to use upscaled dvds (i just dont care which one wins). Sadly though you're probably right about the gloating. Im still hoping that one day the mods would really just start perma-banning people, but im not gonna hold my breath for it.

The other alternative I can think of is to have a read-only secion entitled HD Movies/Players and only release confirmed news, like press releases, release dates, etc.

The proof is in the weekly sales ratios, the year to date ratio and the since inception that HD DVD blew its lead in the US a year ago. Most other markets are 80+ BD. When was the last time HD DVD broke +45% weekly?

I believe this was right at the very same moment Sony decided to launch an award winning popular gaming system to millions of households that FORCED consumers into buying a BD player (a technology that wasn't even to market yet) without choice.

They then followed that force of technology with a terrible selection of games leaving many with a $699 (at the time) paper weight that played these BD movies and 2 decent games.

If I spent that much money on a piece of technology that didn't really do anything except play a few games and some HD movie format.. Of course i'd buy a "few" movies.

Do you really think things would be how they are now if it wasn't for Sony making the decision of BluRay FOR the consumer? Did anyone who bought a PS3 get a choice? You can stomp on M$ all you want, but at least they made the HD-DVD drive optional.

What would happen if they had 2 versions of PS3. One that played BD and one that played HD-DVD. (The later being $200 cheaper). Which one would be purchased more?

What if they did the CONSUMER FRIENDLY thing and offered a PS3 without BD support for $499 and then another one with BD support for $699?

Face it. Sony forced their way into this HDM game and they forced consumers into it too. They now use the BIG NUMBERS gained by forcing players into homes and by giving consumers less choice to try to influence the rest of society. Of course movies are selling more. If you already have a player, why go buy another player and a different format? The really sad and pathetic part is that with all this consumer force-feeding, they can only MAINTAIN a 2:1 ratio. They haven't gained ANYTHING in a year! Pathetic.

When asked if there was a chance HD DVD might actually beat Blu-Ray, Frank Simonis of the BDA responded, “yeah, the same chance Appalachian State has beating Michigan”.

I knew it!

What makes everyone so sure that the the "war" will be won at all? The natural thinking is that one format will ultimately emerge but it's entirely possible -- if not even likely -- that HD-DVD and BR will continue to fight it out forever.

There have been plenty comparable examples of non-compatible formats that have co-existed for years if not decades. Mac vs. IBM, Playstation vs. everything else, Ipods vs. everything else, cellphones and carriers, and even film stock (remember the Polaroid instant film?). In the professional video industry, there are several high-end formats that are not compatible (DVCAM, etc.).

Why can't HD-DVD and BR co-exist like Mac and PC or PS3 and XBOX?

I believe this was right at the very same moment Sony decided to launch an award winning popular gaming system to millions of households that FORCED consumers into buying a BD player (a technology that wasn't even to market yet) without choice.

They then followed that force of technology with a terrible selection of games leaving many with a $699 (at the time) paper weight that played these BD movies and 2 decent games.

If I spent that much money on a piece of technology that didn't really do anything except play a few games and some HD movie format.. Of course i'd buy a "few" movies.

Do you really think things would be how they are now if it wasn't for Sony making the decision of BluRay FOR the consumer? Did anyone who bought a PS3 get a choice? You can stomp on M$ all you want, but at least they made the HD-DVD drive optional.

What would happen if they had 2 versions of PS3. One that played BD and one that played HD-DVD. (The later being $200 cheaper). Which one would be purchased more?

What if they did the CONSUMER FRIENDLY thing and offered a PS3 without BD support for $499 and then another one with BD support for $699?

Face it. Sony forced their way into this HDM game and they forced consumers into it too. They now use the BIG NUMBERS gained by forcing players into homes and by giving consumers less choice to try to influence the rest of society. Of course movies are selling more. If you already have a player, why go buy another player and a different format? The really sad and pathetic part is that with all this consumer force-feeding, they can only MAINTAIN a 2:1 ratio. They haven't gained ANYTHING in a year! Pathetic.

But it worked. That's all that matters. look at MS's fiasco with the Xbox 360. Sure, it sells great as a game machine but if MS wants to own the HD-DVD market, They should have forced it upon the gamer. What's $600 (especially when MS have killer titles on launch) for a machine when it's just basically 10 games. Any serious gamer will spend more than that on games just on the first year. Instead of doing that and maybe winning the format war. look at what they did.

They released a machine that's totally HD un-freindly. No DVI or HDMI, No HDCP. Then they release the HD-DVD player as an option. Those with any brain will know not to pick it up unless they want to have a useless POS if ICT goes into effect unless they buy a new 360 Premium or Elite with HDMI/HDCP (which doesn't even exist at the time). Those that's willing to take the risk still have to use Analog component output which is generally inferior to Digital signal from HDMI.

Although early PS3 games sucks with few exceptions. The 2nd and 3rd round of games are definately showing great signs of improvement with Developer learning to use the cell processor better. By forcing the player on gamers. Developer are learning to take advantage of the large storage space as we already have developer claiming that they are using 2GB of storage per in game level and that they are increasing the HD contents. In a year or so there will be so much more contents on PS3 exclusive games that will far outpace any 360 game development.

On the other hand. With the HD-DVD on the 360. Good luck waiting on HD-DVD exclusive games. It's just a matter of the chicken or the egg. Developer will not invest on HD exclusive games without a large installed base and player won't buy the player till there are enough HD exclusive titles. It's a lose lose proposition on both end.

The current low attachment number is because there are still a lot of console gamer that's using their console on SDTV but with 42" HDTV dropping to ~$700 this X'mas. A lot of PS3/SDTV owner will switch and start taking advantage of blu-ray movies while MS will still have a hard time convicing gamer to pickup HD-DVD add-ons. Once that happens, the current low attachment number will go away and Blu-ray sales will pull further ahead.

Quote:
When asked if there was a chance HD DVD might actually beat Blu-Ray, Frank Simonis of the BDA responded, “yeah, the same chance Appalachian State has beating Michigan”.

I knew it!Quote:


Best post ever

I believe this was right at the very same moment Sony decided to launch an award winning popular gaming system to millions of households that FORCED consumers into buying a BD player (a technology that wasn't even to market yet) without choice.

They then followed that force of technology with a terrible selection of games leaving many with a $699 (at the time) paper weight that played these BD movies and 2 decent games.

If I spent that much money on a piece of technology that didn't really do anything except play a few games and some HD movie format.. Of course i'd buy a "few" movies.

Do you really think things would be how they are now if it wasn't for Sony making the decision of BluRay FOR the consumer? Did anyone who bought a PS3 get a choice? You can stomp on M$ all you want, but at least they made the HD-DVD drive optional.

What would happen if they had 2 versions of PS3. One that played BD and one that played HD-DVD. (The later being $200 cheaper). Which one would be purchased more?

What if they did the CONSUMER FRIENDLY thing and offered a PS3 without BD support for $499 and then another one with BD support for $699?

Face it. Sony forced their way into this HDM game and they forced consumers into it too. They now use the BIG NUMBERS gained by forcing players into homes and by giving consumers less choice to try to influence the rest of society. Of course movies are selling more. If you already have a player, why go buy another player and a different format? The really sad and pathetic part is that with all this consumer force-feeding, they can only MAINTAIN a 2:1 ratio. They haven't gained ANYTHING in a year! Pathetic.

Best post ever on this subject. BD fanboys seem to think consumers "chose" BD. It was shoveled into their mouths.

But it worked. That's all that matters. look at MS's fiasco with the Xbox 360. Sure, it sells great as a game machine but if MS wants to own the HD-DVD market, They should have forced it upon the gamer. What's $600 (especially when MS have killer titles on launch) for a machine when it's just basically 10 games. Any serious gamer will spend more than that on games just on the first year. Instead of doing that and maybe winning the format war. look at what they did.

They released a machine that's totally HD un-freindly. No DVI or HDMI, No HDCP. Then they release the HD-DVD player as an option. Those with any brain will know not to pick it up unless they want to have a useless POS if ICT goes into effect unless they buy a new 360 Premium or Elite with HDMI/HDCP (which doesn't even exist at the time). Those that's willing to take the risk still have to use Analog component output which is generally inferior to Digital signal from HDMI.

Although early PS3 games sucks with few exceptions. The 2nd and 3rd round of games are definately showing great signs of improvement with Developer learning to use the cell processor better. By forcing the player on gamers. Developer are learning to take advantage of the large storage space as we already have developer claiming that they are using 2GB of storage per in game level and that they are increasing the HD contents. In a year or so there will be so much more contents on PS3 exclusive games that will far outpace any 360 game development.

On the other hand. With the HD-DVD on the 360. Good luck waiting on HD-DVD exclusive games. It's just a matter of the chicken or the egg. Developer will not invest on HD exclusive games without a large installed base and player won't buy the player till there are enough HD exclusive titles. It's a lose lose proposition on both end.

The current low attachment number is because there are still a lot of console gamer that's using their console on SDTV but with 42" HDTV dropping to ~$700 this X'mas. A lot of PS3/SDTV owner will switch and start taking advantage of blu-ray movies while MS will still have a hard time convicing gamer to pickup HD-DVD add-ons. Once that happens, the current low attachment number will go away and Blu-ray sales will pull further ahead.

I think it's the opposite. I think Sony basically just forced the consumer into creating a "format war" that wasn't even meant to be. There is no argument from either side that without PS3, BD would never have even made it to market.

By forcing the consumer to be the unwilling financier of this format war -- by paying $200 more than the PS3 is worth -- Sony was able to show a marked increase in both "player sales" (only when including PS3) and in media sales (although the player:sales ratio is horrendous) .. They then couple that with forcing fear and dismay on the buying public.. basically saying.. "Look at our numbers.. we are strong.. HD-DVD is weak.. if you do not buy BD.. you will be stuck with useless hardware and media within a year!"

It's very sad.. and I don't know how any fanboy could sit there and cheer -- raaah raaah raaah -- a company that just used them for their money.. preying on their love of an actually decent Sony product... the Playstation game console.

If Sony's move to use and abuse their customers to allow them to go and create their own media format YET AGAIN... was smart... then hey... It should create a fantastic example of what future corporations should do when they want something to go their way. Give the customers no other option and then make them pay for it too.

I think in 1 year time we will see that Sony did nothing but create a group of people who showed loyalty to a product that was never meant to be.. not ever finished. A group of people that paid more money than was needed to buy a product that offered a feature that never really took off because it just wasn't a consumer viable option.

Yes. If Microsoft had of bundled their HD-DVD drive with every XBOX, based on the sales numbers, BD wouldn't have made it off the ground. I thank the gluttonous M$ for at least making one right decision.

:(....i knew this would happen. Ever since the Paramount annoucement HD DVD fanboys are starting to sound like Blu-Ray fanboys. Back then every BD fan kept saying Toshiba wanted to stop mass adoption, push downloads, and HD DVD is dead. Since Paramount Ive read so many times Blu-Ray is dead and now people are actually saying Sony is in it to kill off HD movies for downloads.

Hopefully one of the 2 officially dies off soon so the fanboys can stop arguing

Fanboy?

The language coming out of the HD DVD camp has never been of this tone, nor has the HD DVD camp done a complete 180 degree turn as the BDA seem to be doing... away from their previous "we won" rhetoric.

I have also yet to see anyone saying Sony wants to kill HD media because they want digital downloads to take off...

I think it's the opposite. I think Sony basically just forced the consumer into creating a "format war" that wasn't even meant to be. There is no argument from either side that without PS3, BD would never have even made it to market.

By forcing the consumer to be the unwilling financier of this format war -- by paying $200 more than the PS3 is worth -- Sony was able to show a marked increase in both "player sales" (only when including PS3) and in media sales (although the player:sales ratio is horrendous) .. They then couple that with forcing fear and dismay on the buying public.. basically saying.. "Look at our numbers.. we are strong.. HD-DVD is weak.. if you do not buy BD.. you will be stuck with useless hardware and media within a year!"

It's very sad.. and I don't know how any fanboy could sit there and cheer -- raaah raaah raaah -- a company that just used them for their money.. preying on their love of an actually decent Sony product... the Playstation game console.

If Sony's move to use and abuse their customers to allow them to go and create their own media format YET AGAIN... was smart... then hey... It should create a fantastic example of what future corporations should do when they want something to go their way. Give the customers no other option and then make them pay for it too.

I think in 1 year time we will see that Sony did nothing but create a group of people who showed loyalty to a product that was never meant to be.. not ever finished. A group of people that paid more money than was needed to buy a product that offered a feature that never really took off because it just wasn't a consumer viable option.

Yes. If Microsoft had of bundled their HD-DVD drive with every XBOX, based on the sales numbers, BD wouldn't have made it off the ground. I thank the gluttonous M$ for at least making one right decision.

Ok, Let's put it this way. I think Sony was right to force blu-ray on the public. I't a pure and simple business decision but it's also a good decision.

On the business decision side. They have this new technology they want to push and they know they have enough loyal following that will buy up whatever they put out so they took advantage of it. That's the nature of the beast. Early adopter almost always gets burned. look at all those early 'HDTV" adopter that have sets with only component inputs. Same story except almost every major manufacturer has an hand in it instead of just one.

As to a good decision. It gives the developer one set of equipment with huge growth potential (looking at blu-ray as a strict storage device) to work with. No optional features to worry about. Sure, as I said, the initial offering sucks but thing are getting better and will only get better as developer learns their stuff. Success is not really going to be measured in months. look at the early PS2 games and look at God of War 2. Can you believe that they are games developed on the same console. Sony even said that they don't expect developers to be able to take full advantage of PS3 for 3-4 years.

While MS have a number advantage at the moment. Without some way of forcing the player into a HD player (like a 360 with built-in HD-DVD). They cannot hope to keep up with the PS3 on HD game contents if they stick to the normal DVD as a storage medium.

Ok, Let's put it this way. I think Sony was right to force blu-ray on the public. I't a pure and simple business decision but it's also a good decision.

I agree it was a good business decision... but all it has done is buy time. Mass consumer adoption will take place in the stand alone market -- not the gamer market.

Prices are faaaaaaar to out of whack on the BD side for it to ever become the winning format. It just won't happen. If they had have just competed player to player, they would have lost right out of the gate and everyone could have just went on with their day. Instead they chose this route, which will lead to their demise years down the road.. Just like Beta.

Consumers are not going to pick the much more expensive format that offers "nothing different".

Fanboy?

The language coming out of the HD DVD camp has never been of this tone, nor has the HD DVD camp done a complete 180 degree turn as the BDA seem to be doing... away from their previous "we won" rhetoric.

I have also yet to see anyone saying Sony wants to kill HD media because they want digital downloads to take off...


I don't see what saying that Blu-ray have won have anything to do with saying the format war will be over in 18 months. How many years did Betamax lingered after everyone declared that VHS have won. I would take their 18 months statement to mean that no single format HD-DVD player will be on the market in 18 months (equal to Betamax machine stop being for sale). Just be thankful that this time around, The public have chose/force to chose early enough and soon enough that it's won't be dragging on for years like Betamax.

I agree it was a good business decision... but all it has done is buy time. Mass consumer adoption will take place in the stand alone market -- not the gamer market.In the long term, yes. But the long term could be death for either format without something to get it buy thru the apathy of consumers about HDM in general. BD is using PS3, HD DVD is using players selling at much lower cost than is customary for this stage of a new format.

Prices are faaaaaaar to out of whack on the BD side for it to ever become the winning format. It just won't happen. If they had have just competed player to player, they would have lost right out of the gate and everyone could have just went on with their day. Instead they chose this route, which will lead to their demise years down the road.. Just like Beta.Actually, prices are out of whack for this stage of adoption on the HD DVD side. That's good for consumers, but it's still the truth; HD DVD originally planned to intro their first player at $999, but dropped it to $499 during a surprise announcement at CES 2006; following some momentum on the BD side. The time that the PS3 is buying them is the time they need to get player cost down, replication costs down, and the profile situation sorted out. As those things occur the need for the PS3 factor will eventually disappear (it'll still sell, but won't be the primary selling BD player).

Consumers are not going to pick the much more expensive format that offers "nothing different".Well, we'll just have to wait and see about that. Many of us feel that it BD offers the maximum capacity (of the two formats) for future expansion; that HD DVD came out of the gate great, but more or less maxed out. Thus the need for the PS3 to buy time. The other thing to keep in mind is that when discussing price it's not only hardware, but software that will determine mass-market acceptance. BD pricing is as cheap, or in many cases cheaper than HD DVD. So once someone does buy in (or gets a PS3) there is no further cost advantage.

I agree it was a good business decision... but all it has done is buy time. Mass consumer adoption will take place in the stand alone market -- not the gamer market.

Prices are faaaaaaar to out of whack on the BD side for it to ever become the winning format. It just won't happen. If they had have just competed player to player, they would have lost right out of the gate and everyone could have just went on with their day. Instead they chose this route, which will lead to their demise years down the road.. Just like Beta.

Consumers are not going to pick the much more expensive format that offers "nothing different".


True but unfortunately, none of this matter anymore as they've already gotten a large enough margin ahead. While the HD-DVD price advantage looks great when Blu-ray was $1000. It's becoming less and less so everyday. Look at prices now. If you compare the Toshiba 1080p (the 1080i unit doesn't count) stanalone with the cheapest bluray. The price difference can be as little as $180. By the time the sub $200 HD-DVD player hit's mass retailers. The difference will probably be less again.

Another thing that Sony have learned from Betamax is that they have lined up a whole bunch of other manufacturer behind Blu-ray. Think what the average joe consumer is going to see when they walk into a store. Blu-ray player by Sony, Samsung, Sharp, Panasonic, Pioneer, Funai, Denon, etc, etc. While HD-DVD is only represented by Toshiba, RCA and some noname Chinese manufacturer. They are going to think Betamax all over again and guess which side they are going to choose.

I don't see what saying that Blu-ray have won have anything to do with saying the format war will be over in 18 months..


?

Because the language comes from the same people.

The BDA ran around screaming "BD wins, We won, we Won WE WON!!!" for the past year.

Now that Paramount has abandoned them, and there really is no way for them to win anymore, comes the glum language "this will only confuse consumers... another 18 months and it will be safe to buy into HD optical, etc."

This is a fundamental change in strategy. I honestly don't know what you are missing here?

How many years did Betamax lingered after everyone declared that VHS have won. I would take their 18 months statement to mean that no single format HD-DVD player will be on the market in 18 months (equal to Betamax machine stop being for sale). Just be thankful that this time around, The public have chose/force to chose early enough and soon enough that it's won't be dragging on for years like Betamax.

Are you trying to say that BD has in fact won, and that HD DVD is just going to peter out over the next 18 months the way Betamax did?

Do you ever recall VHS backers saying anything like "wait for 18 months so you will know who won and it's safe to buy into home video" ? ? No.

You don't do that if you are trying to establish sales, you do that if you are trying to stall market adoption.

I have read quotes from many a BD fan over the past year, many of them were absolutely livid in claiming that HD DVD was stalling mass market adoption of HD media... and yet the HD DVD side never once made any public statements suggesting that consumers wait for any amount of time before buying into the HD optical market.

The HD DVD group may have said "buy my product" but they never suggested that the consumer buy neither one.

I really hope that all of those people who had so much hatred for the HD DVD side because they thought it was HD DVD out to stall mass market adoption will take a long hard look at this latest bit of language coming out of the BDA, because what they are doing now is truly making a concerted effort to stall adoption of HD optical media.

And that is something Toshiba and the HD DVD group has never done.

I wonder if WB goes exclusive . . . when will the format war end this time?

I wonder if WB goes exclusive . . . when will the format war end this time?


Yesterday. :)

I am off for now.

Wiz33, if you think BD will still win this, we'll just have to wait and see. This latest bit of language surely will not help their cause any.

Talk to you later.

?

Because the language comes from the same people.

The BDA ran around screaming "BD wins, We won, we Won WE WON!!!" for the past year.

Now that Paramount has abandoned them, and there really is no way for them to win anymore, comes the glum language "this will only confuse consumers... another 18 months and it will be safe to buy into HD optical, etc."

This is a fundamental change in strategy. I honestly don't know what you are missing here?



Are you trying to say that BD has in fact won, and that HD DVD is just going to peter out over the next 18 months the way Betamax did?

Do you ever recall VHS backers saying anything like "wait for 18 months just to be safe before buying into home video" ? ? No.

You don't do that if you are trying to establish sales, you do that if you are trying to stall market adoption.

I have read quotes from many a BD fan over the past year, many of them were absolutely livid in claiming that HD DVD was stalling mass market adoption of HD media... and yet the HD DVD side never once made any public statements suggesting that consumers wait for any amount of time before buying into the HD optical market.

The HD DVD group may have said "buy my product" but they never suggested that the consumer buy neither one.

I really hope that all of those people who had so much hatred for the HD DVD side because they thought it was HD DVD out to stall mass market adoption will take a long hard look at this latest bit of language coming out of the BDA, because what they are doing now is truly making a concerted effort to stall adoption of HD optical media.

And that is something Toshiba and the HD DVD group has never done.

Yea, I am in fact saying that Blu-ray have already won and it will take 18 months for HD-DVD to die off.

The VHS camp never dire put a date on the demise of Beta as they have no idea when it would be. Beta was losing market share so slowly that they could have lasted years till the pron industry throw in with VHS. When is the last time that you heard someone in this industry willing to go on record putting a fairly firm date on anything. The BDA announcement was actually a bold move showing how confident they are.

I don't hate HD-DVD. I did not decide on blu-ray from day one, I'm not even too worried about the spec. I waited till when I believe that one side is going to win before I bought my first unit.

The other thing to keep in mind is that when discussing price it's not only hardware, but software that will determine mass-market acceptance. BD pricing is as cheap, or in many cases cheaper than HD DVD. So once someone does buy in (or gets a PS3) there is no further cost advantage.

I would disagree and say that as of today, there is no PRICE advantage, largely due to the combo format. It has been well-documented that the HD DVD media has a definite COST advantage.

Remember, cost and price are not the same thing. Understanding the difference between the two is critical to understanding what will drive a studio's decisions.

Fanboy?

The language coming out of the HD DVD camp has never been of this tone, nor has the HD DVD camp done a complete 180 degree turn as the BDA seem to be doing... away from their previous "we won" rhetoric.

I have also yet to see anyone saying Sony wants to kill HD media because they want digital downloads to take off...

Yes fanboy. You're saying if Sony can't win, they want to get rid of HD optical movies all together

This new tone seems meant to destroy confidence not only in HD DVD… but the HD optical market itself.

I'm not talking about the HD DVD camp, I'm talking about the fanboys on this site claiming blu-ray to be dead. Blu-Ray is still outselling HD DVD, they have more players in the market, new releases are generally cheaper on Blu-Ray, and they still have the majority of studio support as well as CE support. Blu-Ray isn't going anywhere. HD DVD lasted for this long with only 1 major exclusive studio backing it, Blu-Ray should be okay with 3. These are the same fanboys that include PS3 sales in attachment rate, but conviently exclude them in player sales. The amount of situational ethics and circumstantial reasoning on this board is disgusting.

Yes fanboy. You're saying if Sony can't win, they want to get rid of HD optical movies all together



I'm not talking about the HD DVD camp, I'm talking about the fanboys on this site claiming blu-ray to be dead. Blu-Ray is still outselling HD DVD, they have more players in the market, new releases are generally cheaper on Blu-Ray, and they still have the majority of studio support as well as CE support. Blu-Ray isn't going anywhere. HD DVD lasted for this long with only 1 major exclusive studio backing it, Blu-Ray should be okay with 3. These are the same fanboys that include PS3 sales in attachment rate, but conviently exclude them in player sales. The amount of situational ethics and circumstantial reasoning on this board is disgusting.

In view of how you are attacking HD DVD folks, are you not being a BD fanboy. Your apparent BD confrontational view seems extremely unprofessional and I think we need to remain civil. Be it HD DVD fans or BD fans, there is no reason for these kind of attacks.

I would disagree and say that as of today, there is no PRICE advantage, largely due to the combo format. It has been well-documented that the HD DVD media has a definite COST advantage.

Remember, cost and price are not the same thing. Understanding the difference between the two is critical to understanding what will drive a studio's decisions.You make a good point. When I wrote that I meant cost to me :p. So, yes, price advantage would be a better term.

I would disagree and say that as of today, there is no PRICE advantage, largely due to the combo format. It has been well-documented that the HD DVD media has a definite COST advantage.

Remember, cost and price are not the same thing. Understanding the difference between the two is critical to understanding what will drive a studio's decisions.


Wrong. The combo format in fact cost more in most case. The HD-DVD/DVD package usually cost a few dollars more than Blu-ray. Manufacturer cost doesn't really matter to me as a consumer. All I see is that Blu-ray is definately cheaper in some cases.

On the Studio level. Disc replication cost can be a factor but it's such a small amount when compare to the production (mastering and additional features) and marketing cost that the higher sales number on blu-ray disc will more than make up for any cost difference.

Looks like Frank Simonis statement is more for his boss(s) than us (the consumer). :rolleyes:

Quite frankly I'd expect his ass to be grass if Blu Ray isn't the clear cut winner by Christmas '09 (and he's not the only one, btw)

He better be polishing up that resume if you ask me...... :D

Don't have to wait till X'mas 09. X'mas 08 will show that HD-DVD have no hope of ever catching up to Blu-ray sales. Look at what a average consumer will see this year.

Blockbuster with big poster by the entrance that siad "Blu-ray, the future of high def".

They will see many Blu-ray players by Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp, etc on the shelf with only Toshiba and maybe some noname chinese brand showing HD-DVD player at most major retailer.

Disney Kiosk highlighting Blu-ray movies and Panasonic Hi-Def demo mobile in major malls across the U.S.

What do you think they will buy?

So I guess the head of the BDA just made an ass out of the head of the PS3 divison didn't he?

"HD DVD will be dead in a matter of months."

What? Matter of months = 18?

Don't have to wait till X'mas 09. X'mas 08 will show that HD-DVD have no hope of ever catching up to Blu-ray sales. Look at what a average consumer will see this year.

Blockbuster with big poster by the entrance that siad "Blu-ray, the future of high def".

They will see many Blu-ray players by Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, Denon, Sharp, etc on the shelf with only Toshiba and maybe some noname chinese brand showing HD-DVD player at most major retailer.

Disney Kiosk highlighting Blu-ray movies and Panasonic Hi-Def demo mobile in major malls across the U.S.

What do you think they will buy?


I think your being way over-confident (a Blu-ray trademark). You can't fabricate a market, and $499, even $399 hardware is too pricey for a DVD-upgrade. It sure won't happen because of a few gaudy displays.

I think your being way over-confident (a Blu-ray trademark). You can't fabricate a market, and $499, even $399 hardware is too pricey for a DVD-upgrade. It sure won't happen because of a few gaudy displays.

When have hardware prices really matters (after the initial launch at $1000). how much did you spend on your first VCR? Your first DVD player? You are also talking about people who have already spent or is will to spend at least $1000 on a HDTV. So is $399 really that high a price for them?

When have hardware prices really matters (after the initial launch at $1000). how much did you spend on your first VCR? Your first DVD player? You are also talking about people who have already spent or is will to spend at least $1000 on a HDTV. So is $399 really that high a price for them?

Yes it is too high. Consumers do not see this as a "new technology" that can do new things they could never do before or provide major new conviences (e.g. watch movies at home, chapter search, special features, never rewind, quality does not erode over time, take less shelf space, looks better even on my 5 year old TV...).

For consumers HDM is an upgrade to disk based videos. For this they will be willing to pay an "upgrade" price not a "new technology" price.

HD format war over in 18 months, says BDA

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/HD-format-war-over-in-18-months,-says-BDA-News--a0001159-p0.php)

So did he provide a transition plan for how they will move to HD DVD? :)

In view of how you are attacking HD DVD folks, are you not being a BD fanboy. Your apparent BD confrontational view seems extremely unprofessional and I think we need to remain civil. Be it HD DVD fans or BD fans, there is no reason for these kind of attacks.

A BD Fanboy? Please, I have both formats and they're nothing more than movies in different color cases as far as I'm concerned. The format war never was a issue to me because I'm not gonna blindly stand behind sony or toshiba and whatever decisions or deals they make.

I didn't personally attack anyone. I made a statement about the numerous fanboys who pledge their allegience to a faceless entity, and I gave reasons why I've labeled people as such, whether they're for BD or HD. To blindly follow a CE company or movie studio because the color of the case they decide to use is so retarded I can't even comprehend it.

On the post you quoted, nothing I stated was a lie. The numbers are released every week, and BD is leading in sales, market share, and industry support. You cannot argue or deny that fact.

Check my post history, I've never made allegience to any format, and I've been a called BD fanboy as well as a HD fanboy on this board. Both formats have positives and negatives going for them, but the biggest problem in BOTH camps are the lunatic fans.

Exactly what "strange moves" is he referring to?

When have hardware prices really matters (after the initial launch at $1000). how much did you spend on your first VCR? Your first DVD player? You are also talking about people who have already spent or is will to spend at least $1000 on a HDTV. So is $399 really that high a price for them?


Actually I spent about 350$ on the first VCR. Imagine the possibilities. HOME THEATRE... recording tv shows. It was a BRAND NEW thing.

My first DVD player? About $200 .. was a Phillips from Walmart. Maybe a year or two into the DVD craze.. Why? Cause it was $200 and I wanted to see some clear pictures.

My first HD DVD player? $300.. why? Cause I wanted to enjoy my $1800 TV... and $300 isn't really going to break me. Why didn't I get BluRay? They started at $599 for the SAME PICTURE QUALITY.

Now your statement about is $399 that high for someone who bought a $1000 TV? Are you thinking? That's 40% of the price. I know if I had 40% more money to throw away, I'd be buying a $1400 TV instead of a $1000 one.

Those people with the $1000-$1200 TV's are ONLY going to be buying sub $200 players period. Whatever format it may be.

Exactly what "strange moves" is he referring to?

By not listening to the BDA and "dying" on schedule. :D

Well, I guess you are much younger than I am since my first VCR was $3000 along with a projection TV that was $6000. This is back when houses in San Jose are 100K. Since than consumer electronics price have never bothered me. $2000 S-VHS, $2000 LD player, $1000 DVD player just seems par of the course when they are new and a ~$100 price difference between players at the $200-$400 range is not really going to make much of a difference. By the time the mass consumer gets into HDM, I think the price difference will be less than $100 and when they see all the different brand offering Blu-ray vs the few that offers HD-DVD and they will think betamax and choose wisely.

Well, I guess you are much younger than I am since my first VCR was $3000 along with a projection TV that was $6000. This is back when houses in San Jose are 100K. Since than consumer electronics price have never bothered me. $2000 S-VHS, $2000 LD player, $1000 DVD player just seems par of the course when they are new and a ~$100 price difference between players at the $200-$400 range is not really going to make much of a difference. By the time the mass consumer gets into HDM, I think the price difference will be less than $100 and when they see all the different brand offering Blu-ray vs the few that offers HD-DVD and they will think betamax and choose wisely.

I do remember when VCRs were that much. But I also remember back then a good ol' family time was to RENT the VCR and a few movies over the weekend. VCRs were only for the enthusiasts and wealthy. It wasn't until they reached an affordable price did mass adoption take place.

100$ makes a world of difference. Consumers today are net-shopping for the best price and the Walmarts are making more money on CE then the high end A/V only stores.

And if anyone is afraid of being stuck with a Beta again, they should remember who made them stuck with a Beta... Sony.

Yes fanboy.


You certainly are making a point.