BDA: Microsoft is bad at making predictions

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/BDA--Microsoft-is-bad-at-making-predictions-News--a0001158-p0.php)

Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Assosciation (BDA), believes strongly in the future of Blu-ray and HD content in general.

Simonis is certain exciting things are soon to come and, unlike Bill Gates who stated that HD content on physical formats will fail, he believes the future of Blu-ray as a high definition format looks very strong.

"I think a lot of people make the mistake of thinking that Microsoft is the Holy Grail," Simonis said.

"The idea that no one wants HD is a story that Microsoft likes to spin. Bill Gates last year had a speech at a University in Chicago where he stated that he didn't need the third generation optical media and will go for downloads."

Continuing his discussion, Simonis sarcastically stated how disheveled Microsoft is that when Vista was announced for a 2004 release, it came out three years late.

With everything considered, Simonis made it clear that he believes Microsoft shouldn't be looked upon for any predictions:

"Microsoft is very bad at making predictions and I think that you can only judge that if the consumer truly has a choice in making use of that application. For standard definition the concept is now slowly coming alive. But high definition is six times more information in the video alone. That's not including the HD 7.1 audio," Simonis underscored.

With the strong support of Blu-ray's size and content, Simonis further mentioned that a downloadable only future is absolutely no threat to Blu-ray:

"So to download a movie of 25GB over the internet, I wish the consumer a lot of success today and hopefully the day after you might have all the content in one form. But with Blu-ray you can buy it all in one go and it's top quality at an affordable price."

Blu-ray is currently outpacing its rival HD DVD, which is supported by Microsoft.

Keep checking PSU for more Blu-ray related information.

That article has been supplanted with this one...

http://www.psu.com/HD-format-war-over-in-18-months,-says-BDA-News--a0001159-p0.php

:)

Now that's A class comedy :D

I sympathize with those who have to work under Bill Gates to push HD DVD despite what their boss predicted!

Well... Coming from the BDA, I wouldn't believe that...

...but of course if it were Sony to say "Microsoft is bad at making predictions" then I would believe it...

...because Sony is an authority in that area. :D

Yeah, and the BDA is really good in forecasting the future... like the PS3 sales or the weird BD sales forecast graphs. LOL!

Thank you, Nousemercenary, this reminds me why I support HD DVD. The BDA insults my intelligence with their FUD.

OP
so we´re getting a new thread for each and every "article" posted on PSU.com now?
:rolleyes:

This is from the same company who said HD DVD is dead, the same company whose PS3 is currently getting smacked in the face by the Wii and 360, the same company whose format no longer has support from Paramount and Dreamworks.

And yet Microsoft is bad at making predictions :rolleyes:

I sympathize with those who have to work under Bill Gates to push HD DVD despite what their boss predicted!

Hey, dont say that! :)

I like Gates' vision (always have since he was so on the mark with tablet PCs; btw he still believes in them, ref: D5) and look forward to the day when I can download a high def movie to my hard disk over a net connection. It will be between 25-30GB in size (since we know that that is the sweet spot for maximal quality).

It should only take 7 hours or so, with a 10Mbps throughput, which as we all know, is available everywhere (in monte carlo).

I think this is an example of what anyone in business knows is probably not a good sign. If all were rosey and the top position was secure mention of the competition would be unnecessary.

Art

He doth protest too much, methinks.

This is from the same company who said HD DVD is dead, the same company whose PS3 is currently getting smacked in the face by the Wii and 360, the same company whose format no longer has support from Paramount and Dreamworks.

And yet Microsoft is bad at making predictions :rolleyes:

DUDE, but I heard that PS3 and Blu-Ray have bigger market share because they made more money..Ummm..right? :D

Pot...

MS is bad at predictions? Hmmm, seems to me they predicted Windows would be a success...

And then there's that little issue of Sony being bad at creating standardized formats...

Yeah the BDA has predicted this war has been over even before it started, yet here we are now in a stale mate. Basically the BDA and a lot blu-ray fanatics make me not so proud to be a BLU-RAY owner. Can they just shut up and put out movies?

DUDE, but I heard that PS3 and Blu-Ray have bigger market share because they made more money..Ummm..right? :D

Right. :p

I think this is an example of what anyone in business knows is probably not a good sign. If all were rosey and the top position was secure mention of the competition would be unnecessary.

Art

this is 100% correct. Its the absolute last resort.

Well... Coming from the BDA, I wouldn't believe that...

...but of course if it were Sony to say "Microsoft is bad at making predictions" then I would believe it...

...because Sony is an authority in that area. :D

http://www.eff.org/legal/cases/betamax/betamax.jpg

vs.

http://www.intelliadmin.com/images/Windows%20XP.jpg

Who made the best "prediction"?

Bill Gates was probably looking a little further down the road than this guy wants to admit. Anyone that knows how to use google knows broadband adoption is still too low for DL HDM to be a viable mainstream alternative.

Oh well, at least he slipped up and confirmed HD movies only need about 25gb of space. ;)

it is unusual since where I work we seldom bad-mouth (actually I can't remember ever doing it) the competition....even though they are about 6x our size. We stick to our strengths and advantages of purchasing our product.

Although, I guess Apple kind of does it (Mac / PC commercials)....much like the BDA....don't know if you can logically connect the two, but it is interesting.

It would be really, really cool if the BDA would STFU about the competition and just focus on... you know... BDs.

elcassette
betamax
umd
minidisc
memory stick

Those aren't very good predictions. History tends to repeat itself.

Yeah, because the PS3 is selling like crazy right now. It killed that stupid Nintendo system with the funny TV Remote controller.

Yeah, because the PS3 is selling like crazy right now. It killed that stupid Nintendo system with the funny TV Remote controller.

:D Someone might want to look up the numbers to back that up.

http://www.eff.org/legal/cases/betamax/betamax.jpg

vs.

http://www.intelliadmin.com/images/Windows%20XP.jpg

Who made the best "prediction"?

How dare you bring up facts which are counter to the Blu-Groups predictions that Microsoft is bad at predictions!!!

I think this is an example of what anyone in business knows is probably not a good sign. If all were rosey and the top position was secure mention of the competition would be unnecessary.

Art

BOOYAH! :D:D:D

http://www.eff.org/legal/cases/betamax/betamax.jpg

vs.

http://www.intelliadmin.com/images/Windows%20XP.jpg

Who made the best "prediction"?

"Those who forget their errors in the past, are bound to repeat it" :D:D:D

BDA: Microsoft is bad at making predictions

Source: PSU.com (http://www.psu.com/BDA--Microsoft-is-bad-at-making-predictions-News--a0001158-p0.php)

I bet he wrote this on MS word:D

"The idea that no one wants HD is a story that Microsoft likes to spin. Bill Gates last year had a speech at a University in Chicago where he stated that he didn't need the third generation optical media and will go for downloads."

Is that why Microsoft released an HD compatible gaming console a full year before the PS3? Is that why they released an HD-DVD drive for the Xbox360? Is that why they have one of the only digital download service with HD downloads and rentals? Yeah, Microsoft doesn't care about HD...ok.

Like others have said, these are last resort tactics. They aren't even attacking the format anymore, they are trying to attack their competitors. The way things are going, the next official BDA press release is going to go like this:

"M$ are teh suxx0rers!!!1111!!1 PS3 pwns u n00bs!!!11!! HD DUD iz teh deadz!"

What is you substituted a picture of Windows Vista (or Windows ME) and the Sony Walkman?

What is you substituted a picture of Windows Vista (or Windows ME) and the Sony Walkman?
ME was a step, just like an OSX release is a step and people expect these steps. Vista is very much like HDDVD/BD people are being asked to by something that they already feel they have.

From what I have read Windows ME was a disaster. It may have been a step but I would characterize it as a misstep. Windows Vista is another ballgame, wher Microsoft released it before most of the software drivers (and support) was ready.

The point I am trying to make Sony, Microsoft (and Toshiba) can make mistakes (although Microsoft will never admit it - they just call it a product feature).

I bet he wrote this on MS word:D

That was awesome!

You da man! :D

What is you substituted a picture of Windows Vista (or Windows ME) and the Sony Walkman?


Maybe he didn't because a Walkman is not considered a format. BTW does anyone else find it amusing to see the BDA's attempts to find footing after being dislodged from their perch by the Paramount announcement? ;)

Well I think we can all agree that Bill Gates is bad at making predictions. We still have spam in our mailboxes, the internet did take off to surpass MSN dialup service, plays for sure devices are a flop and the tablet pc is a flop.

I'm reminded of someone who once made a comment about 640k of ram... forget what it was... either way, it certainly has no parallel whatsoever to 30gb of disc space, so it's not even worth mentioning I guess.

Seems like they called the Win/OSX thing fairly well.

Seems like they called the Win/OSX thing fairly well.
I'm not interested in giving a history lesson but in a nutshell OS X came out in 2000 when windows had already entrenched itself and OS X was the product of a buyout of NeXT. If you really care to find out more, you can google it yourself.

The competition with windows is only in the early stages yet.

I'm reminded of someone who once made a comment about 640k of ram... forget what it was...

You realize that is an urban legend right? After decades of the internet you would think people have learned ... http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/1997/01/1484

Well I think we can all agree that Bill Gates is bad at making predictions. We still have spam in our mailboxes, the internet did take off to surpass MSN dialup service, plays for sure devices are a flop and the tablet pc is a flop.

And how they manage to have Billions upon Billions of Dollars in profit, and Sony is bearly afloat is beyond me. :D

I'm not interested in giving a history lesson but in a nutshell OS X came out in 2000 when windows had already entrenched itself and OS X was the product of a buyout of NeXT. If you really care to find out more, you can google it yourself.

The competition with windows is only in the early stages yet.

Plus MS has to keep Apple in business otherwise they will be jeopardy of being a monopoly. Hench why MS bailed out Apple awhile back when they were having financial troubles.

What is you substituted a picture of Windows Vista (or Windows ME) and the Sony Walkman?

Windows ME was a interim bug fix. And Vista will quadruple-bajuple Walkman sales easily.

Besides, your comparison is apples and oranges. You are comparing a product line (the walkman) to a version of a product (windows)

What PRODUCT sold more, WINDOWS(tm) or Walkman(tm) :)

And how they manage to have Billions upon Billions of Dollars in profit, and Sony is bearly afloat is beyond me. :D

Bill Gates could sell a fraction of his stock and buy 51% of Sony and turn them HD-DVD only if he really wanted to. I think a) He doesn't want to sink his money into a company thats going to lose it for him and b) he enjoys a little competition.

Plus MS has to keep Apple in business otherwise they will be jeopardy of being a monopoly. Hench why MS bailed out Apple awhile back when they were having financial troubles.
Apple was bleeding money for sure but they did have a 4 Billion dollar reserve mostly from the Apple II days.

MSFT's purchase of 150 Million in non-voting stock was one part of the settlement to end a patent/copyright dispute. The software development commitment was to have a greater impact.

http://www.macobserver.com/article/2005/02/07.10.shtml

Microsoft's $150 million investment in Apple in 1997 that also came with a 5-year comittment to develop versions of Office and Internet Explorer for the Mac (as well as porting Office to Mac OS X) is now worth "well over $1 billion," based on the recent price shares of Apple have traded at (February 7th, 2005).

Jobs was "buying time" with the Microsoft deal and the original iMac to maintain interest in Apple and its perceived viability while software engineers furiously worked to bring Mac OS X to market, which Jobs saw as Apple's biggest bet on the future.

Apple assumed the Microsoft deal would inspire other developers to renew their comittments to the Mac, but when Apple solicited Adobe in 1998 to develop consumer-targetted software for working with home video or digital photos, Adobe "said flat-out no," Jobs recalled. That surprise decision, given Adobe's history with the Mac, is what prompted Apple to more agressively pursue the applications space and develop its own software. "We said, 'Okay, if nobody wants to help us, we're just going to have to do this ourselves,'" Jobs said.

Apple began its efforts by purchasing a languishing product from Macromedia that turned into Final Cut Pro and iMovie. Since that first project, Apple's Applications Software Division has come to number 1,000 engineers.

Sony has had some hits along with the misses.
The most successful digital distribution format of all time, the CompactDisc. Sony has made more money on the tens of billions of CD's sold than all other failed standard attempts combined.

HD physical media fans better hope Microsoft is bad at predictions, because Microsoft is predicting that their download services will kill main stream adoption of HD media formats.

I bet he wrote this on MS word:D

Pure genius post. HOF worthy...

OP
so we´re getting a new thread for each and every "article" posted on PSU.com now?
:rolleyes:

Of course you will......and every day beatboy and his compadres will post some worthless news item from a worthless website to build BD back up again. I try not to post in those threads if I can help it. :)

Wow. Do these people at the BDA have an internal monologue? Do they even think about what they're saying? It's quite amusing to hear the BDA say Microsoft is the one with no vision when Microsoft has a market cap of ~280Bln

Bill Gates could sell a fraction of his stock and buy 51% of Sony and turn them HD-DVD only if he really wanted to. I think a) He doesn't want to sink his money into a company thats going to lose it for him and b) he enjoys a little competition.

Correctomondo. :)