Paramount?
I know that Paramount have gone HD DVD but i dont think they will survive. The money they were paid will last for some time and then what? If the 70:30 BD advantage remains i dont think they will stay red for long.

Computers (PC, MAC)
Also we should not underestimate the PC market. Apple, Dell, Sony, Acer, Alienware and the others soon will start selling PCs and laptops with drives. On top of that there are millions of Playstation consoles that are Blu-ray capable.
Most people have DVD drives and use them in the PCs, and then will have BD. How big is the Toshiba market? On top of that they do not include HD DVD in all laptops only in some.

Price.
Ok admit it. Blu-ray media is cheaper. Check 300 movie. It sells $5 more in HD DVD... The blanks are cheaper per GB too.
The players are about the same or 100-200 less for HD DVD which i dont think counts much. You will get 20-30 movies in BD and will save the money...


Availability.
Even though Toshiba brand is popular in USA, in Japan we saw what is going on. 98% is Blu-ray only. In Europe is similar. Also Blu-ray have so much more players even now from so many brands that Toshiba choice seems lame.


Pure specs.
OK we know that HD DVD is 30GB and BD is 50. That counts believe me. And BD can go 100 and 200GB so its at least future proof. And what? Current players dont support 100GB? Who cares, at the time we need 100GB we will definitely need another/new player anyway.
Also we know that Blu-ray transfer rate is almost double. Who will wait twice more time to burn HD DVD while he can burn Blu-ray faster, cheaper, SECURE. Yes secure because BD is more stable at preserving the data because of the hard coating.


What else is there? I cant find anything else...

HD fans, please do not flame a lot. Just give objective arguments.

They survived with one big exclusive studio. Now they have two big exclusive studios. Well three if you count Dreamworks. I think they'll be just fine.

Edit: Oops, I forgot about The Weinstein Company. However, I don't consider them as big as the other three.

Price.
The players are about the same


This isn't accurate. HD DVD players can be had for 1/2 the price of BD players. I wouldn't call that "about the same".
Also, you say the media is cheaper and point to the movie "300". It's a combo disc on HD DVD so that explains the price difference. I find the two formats media priced about the same with exceptions being combo discs and Fox BD releases.
So, you ask "what are the chances HD DVD survives?"

1. Price: As seen by the latest hot deal at Amazon, HD DVD has a clear cut advantage. $218 bought the HD-A2 with 8 movies. The cheapest BD player listed on Amazon is the Sony S300 at $449. The xbox360 add-on is $179 and can be had for as little as $149. Bottom line: HD DVD players have always retailed for about 1/2 that of BD players.
2. Finalized specs: HD DVd has mandatory intenet connection, mandatory audio codec support and won't have to worry about features on the disc not playing like BD will.
3. Combo discs: There have been a few issures with combos (price, playback) but I believe this could be a big edge for HD DVD. If new releases come out on combos only (no dvd release) this could be a big push for the format.
4. Studio support: With Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks supporting HD DVD exclusively this means the format isn't going to suddenly fold.
5. TL 51 gb discs: These will trump BD in both disc size and bandwidth.

I can't see either format going anywhere in a hurry. HD-Dvd will survive fine and so will Blu-ray.

Paramount?
I know that Paramount have gone HD DVD but i dont think they will survive. The money they were paid will last for some time and then what? If the 70:30 BD advantage remains i dont think they will stay red for long.

Computers (PC, MAC)
Also we should not underestimate the PC market. Apple, Dell, Sony, Acer, Alienware and the others soon will start selling PCs and laptops with drives. On top of that there are millions of Playstation consoles that are Blu-ray capable.
Most people have DVD drives and use them in the PCs, and then will have BD. How big is the Toshiba market? On top of that they do not include HD DVD in all laptops only in some.

Price.
Ok admit it. Blu-ray media is cheaper. Check 300 movie. It sells $5 more in HD DVD... The blanks are cheaper per GB too.
The players are about the same or 100-200 less for HD DVD which i dont think counts much. You will get 20-30 movies in BD and will save the money...


Availability.
Even though Toshiba brand is popular in USA, in Japan we saw what is going on. 98% is Blu-ray only. In Europe is similar. Also Blu-ray have so much more players even now from so many brands that Toshiba choice seems lame.


Pure specs.
OK we know that HD DVD is 30GB and BD is 50. That counts believe me. And BD can go 100 and 200GB so its at least future proof. And what? Current players dont support 100GB? Who cares, at the time we need 100GB we will definitely need another/new player anyway.
Also we know that Blu-ray transfer rate is almost double. Who will wait twice more time to burn HD DVD while he can burn Blu-ray faster, cheaper, SECURE. Yes secure because BD is more stable at preserving the data because of the hard coating.


What else is there? I cant find anything else...

HD fans, please do not flame a lot. Just give objective arguments.

Europe is far from similar to Japan. It's simply not true that br has captured >90% of the market.

In fact 70% of HD players are HD DVD Players.
That is Toshiba got 70% of the HD player market and also got a large piece of the +300 euro SD DVD player market.
30% is for the br although Samsung took a big chuck from that 30%.
(I'm not including PS3 'players, BDA, analysts, Movie studio's all now that the Trojan horse is left outside the gates.)

Both HD formats are a tiny piece in comparison to DVD.

Also from now on choices no longer limited to Toshiba.
Onkyo, LG, Samsung and Venture are now/become also available

Br being cheaper is a lie. On average HD DVD are cheaper.
Combo's might be $5 more expensive but the added value is DVD player compatibility.
(300 in europe is not a combo release)

Survival is the wrong term to use for both formats. I think we can all agree that both HD DVD and Blu-ray will be around for a while.

It's the relative scale of market presence that is in question. HD DVD needs to get some hooks in more market sectors than simply high definition movies or it'll go the way of DVD-A/SACD even should it prevail in the format battle against Blu-ray.

Wow...

Let me tell you this: until 2 minutes and 35 seconds I was a HD DVD supporter. And it only took your post to change that. Amazing. There I was minding my own business, thinking "ain't HD DVD great?" and suddenly BANG! Your post came from the AVS sky and rocked my world. Your clear, clear, clear vision, as stated on your post, sent through me waves of clarity that left me in awe for a few seconds and prevented me from saying something funny. The emotion was too strong. It made me cry.

I thank you for being so bold and acute in your analysis of the current state of affairs. I really think your post is the brightest star on the Hi-def firmament and I truly feel blessed for I am now converted. And all it took was your post and a burning bush that appeared before me a few seconds ago (thank God I always have a glass of water near me, or I wouldn't be here now) who spoke to me with a deep James Earl Jones-like voice that confirmed all you said.

I am happy and honored to be able to reproduce here what the bush told me and I hope no HD DVD fanboy will dare to contradict or dispute what we both will say.

Paramount?
I know that Paramount have gone HD DVD but I dont think they will survive. The money they were paid will last for some time and then what? If the 70:30 BD advantage remains i dont think they will stay red for long.

Yes, it is true.
Paramount and Dreamworks are dying companies in their last breaths. Transformers was a mess and a flop. And Shrek was a pitiful display of third rate CGI. If you ask me (and I asked the bush), those $150 million will only last 12 months. It's $12.5 million a month and we all know paquidermic companies like those two need that money desperately. Do you know how much Dreamworks spent last year in gums? That should give you an idea of the level of people we're dealing with here.

But as we may know, Blu-ray.com already said Paramount/Dreamworks' move was illogical... and being illogical, I'm sure all that money will be spent in a matter of weeks. So we may see BIG changes in Paramount/Dreamworks stance in a few weeks. The bush said "no comment".

Computers (PC, MAC)
Also we should not underestimate the PC market. Apple, Dell, Sony, Acer, Alienware and the others soon will start selling PCs and laptops with drives. On top of that there are millions of Playstation consoles that are Blu-ray capable.
Most people have DVD drives and use them in the PCs, and then will have BD. How big is the Toshiba market? On top of that they do not include HD DVD in all laptops only in some.

OMG, where have I been all these years? You truly took the ground beneath my feet with this one. I am already (as I write) seeing a blu-ray burner on my computer and laptop. All it took was a word from the bush... and it happened! Just like that. Isn't that amazing? Wow! The last time I felt like this was when a lap dancer in Vegas knocked at my hotel room and... well... I'll tell you about all that later when I'm sober. Anyway... As we speak, I am already separating large amounts of data (50Gb at a tame) so I can start filling BD50-Rs right away. And do you know why?
Because I can!!!!


Price.
Ok admit it. Blu-ray media is cheaper. Check 300 movie. It sells $5 more in HD DVD... The blanks are cheaper per GB too.
The players are about the same or 100-200 less for HD DVD which i dont think counts much. You will get 20-30 movies in BD and will save the money...


YES! YES! YES! It is cheaper! It simply is! I don't know how they do it... but if they do it, it must be good, right? Right! OMG, it is as clear and simple as Macroeconomy! It just is. You cannot argue with that.

100-200 Dollars is nothing these days (try buying a Rolls-Royce with that) and I really want to buy all those films and save all that money (although the bush was quite silent when I asked it how was I supposed to save while spending). Anyway, it is just a matter of details! We don't care about details... they are just details.
It just is. You cannot argue with that.


Availability.
Even though Toshiba brand is popular in USA, in Japan we saw what is going on. 98% is Blu-ray only. In Europe is similar. Also Blu-ray have so much more players even now from so many brands that Toshiba choice seems lame.


Bullseye! Another reason to buy Blu-ray: because it is everywhere. I've never been to Japan... but boy, it must be swell... if the Japanese do it, why won't we follow? It's a no brainer. And there are so many brands! If I cannot decide, which one to buy, maybe I can buy them all!!!!!

It just does not really matter! within a month or two, all those players will be obsolete anyway... and I will be able to chose more players!!!! Wow it just won't stop! It just is. You cannot argue with that.


Pure specs.
OK we know that HD DVD is 30GB and BD is 50. That counts believe me. And BD can go 100 and 200GB so its at least future proof. And what? Current players dont support 100GB? Who cares, at the time we need 100GB we will definitely need another/new player anyway.
Also we know that Blu-ray transfer rate is almost double. Who will wait twice more time to burn HD DVD while he can burn Blu-ray faster, cheaper, SECURE. Yes secure because BD is more stable at preserving the data because of the hard coating.


I believe you!
Your word is good enough for me!
Blu-ray is future-proof! Hegel was right! (sort of) History ends with Blu-ray.
The bush did not provide me with a date for 100Gb and 200Gb discs arrival. But as you say, who cares! I'll buy a player for every disc! Because I can! And if I can, why not? And if why not, why not? And if why not, why not?

See? You can't argue with this!

And yes, BD recording is much more stable. I once bought a HD DVD film (in fact it were three films: the Matrix Trilogy) and the recording kept sliding inside the disc because the recording was not stable. I had to handle those discs very carefully (did you ever take 5 hours from the shelf to the player?)
A nightmare!!

With my Batman Returns disc, it was even worse: in one moment it was there.; the next it was gone. I don't know where. The least you can ask from a Batman Returns HD DVD disc is the data to remain, don't you agree?... or at least return as the title implies.

What a junk!
So yes, Blu-ray IS more stable. It just is. You cannot argue with that.


What else is there? I cant find anything else...

There is nothing else! You cannot argue with that.


HD fans, please do not flame a lot. Just give objective arguments.
They won't dare! They cannot argue with this!

Long term survival depends on the long term profits the enterprises can make with bluray and HD DVD. The costs for HD DVD replication are leagues cheaper, so on a free market bluray would have no chance of longterm survival - unless they manipulate the market with viral marketeers like Dave-Blu-Ray and others.

Wow...I must say, I was in the HD DVD camp, but after your brilliant analysis of Dave-Blu-Ray's equally thought provoking article, I too have jumped ship to blu-ray. I thank you, my wife thanks you, my kids thank you....:cool:

HD fans, please do not flame a lot. Just give objective arguments.

Ok admit it. You know, that´s kinda hard after all your objective flamebaiting.
:rolleyes:

Ncie!

Don't forget it was the RED-Sea!

Techicolor, I enjoyed that ... for a about the first 100 lines. And my wife says *I* go on too long, till the point I'm trying to make is lost on the kids ;). So, I'll try to be brief and address a couple points:

1. PC/laptop support
I watch movies on my laptop while in the car (well, the kids do). It's because I'm too cheap to buy a portable player (a portable player with a 15" screen would be prohibitive). But there is no way I prefer to watch movies that way, and there is absolutely no way that I would watch a high-definition movie on a laptop. What's the point? The other potential use is backups, but it's no use even talking about it -- I won't buy dual-layer DVDs now, because of the cost. I'm afraid to even look up the price of B-R blanks.

Bottom line: I think the PC/laptop side of the argument -- at this point in time -- is moot. If anything, whoever bundles a high-def player with all their laptops will likely lose market share (corporate buyers make up a huge slice and most companies will not chose to spend an extra $200 or more.

2. The combo discs are killing HD-DVD. What are the reasons for this disc? I don't buy the argument that you buy it now, without a high-def player, so that later, when you do, you don't have to re-purchase the movie. Just doesn't make any sense to me. The other reason is that people who buy it for themselves will be able to lend it to their friends/in-laws, or play it on their bedroom player or whatever. I don't think the ability to lend it out is a convincing argument to spend an extra $5. And if you can watch a movie in glorious high-def, why would you then do anything else? I have Aliens on both VHS and DVD. I would *never* dream of playing the tape again -- would you, if you were in the same boat?

Bottom line: I think Warner is doing itself and the H-D camp a disservice with these discs. I am actually quite surprised that the 300 is doing so well relative to its Blu cousin.

ETA: OK, in retrospect, that wasn't very brief :o

2. The combo discs are killing HD-DVD. What are the reasons for this disc? After the cost to produce hybrids is brought down to a point where it approaches HD DVD cost, pro-HD DVD studios can release it in lieu of SD DVD. A large title with one SKU (DVD/HD DVD seeds the market with HD DVD discs to regular DVD consumers.

When the time for DVD player purchase comes around for consumers, they would purchase HD DVD because A) they already own HD DVD combo discs, and B) players are cheap.

Blah, Blah, Blah...
HD fans, please do not flame a lot. Just give objective arguments.

Worst flame bait I have seen in a while.

My favorite is the 100-200 dollars can be maded up after buying 20 discs. Most discs are not combos and last I checked 200/5 = 40.

Now let's not waste anymore time on your post from BR fantasy land.

What do you think is the chance that HD DVD will survive?

Survive? Who said anything about that?

HD DVD is going to win the war for the next HD Home Video Format while BD will be for PS3 games and Enterprise applications. Same thing happened with VHS/Beta only Beta became THE standard for Pro/Broadcast Video.

"To Foretell the future . . . . look back to the past."

I know that Paramount have gone HD DVD but i dont think they will survive. The money they were paid will last for some time and then what? If the 70:30 BD advantage remains i dont think they will stay red for long.

If you take the Paramount statement as written, it is clear that they feel that HD DVD is more financially and technically viable. I read that to mean that they were making a higher margin on HD DVD, thus it was more profitable. Why would they back a format that makes them less money? That would be defaulting on their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. If indeed there was an additional incentive deal (there has been no confirmation of a direct payout, but it does seem clear that there will be some marketing funds re-targeted for the benefit of P/DW), then it simply adds more fuel to the fire - they had no choice but to stick with the path that generates more profit.

Keep in mind that Universal was very vocal in that they had been offered 'incentives' by BDA, and had refused. Why would they do this unless they found it financially more appealing to stay with HD DVD?

The Nielsen sales numbers are only part of the picture - you need to use all of the available data to fill in the blanks to try to understand what's really going on.

Also we should not underestimate the PC market. Apple, Dell, Sony, Acer, Alienware and the others soon will start selling PCs and laptops with drives.

And HPs and Toshibas will have HD DVD drives. However, this is a market where the additional capacity may make a difference. However, use in a PC for data storage does not equate to use for video playback. The HTPC market is still a very tiny fraction of the home video market; I wouldn't expect it to drive the HD DVD/BD margins.

On top of that there are millions of Playstation consoles that are Blu-ray capable.

Agreed. BD will survive as a game storage medium, at least for a while. Again, this is an area where the additional storage capacity really brings more value, so it makes sense.

Most people have DVD drives and use them in the PCs, and then will have BD. True, but largely irrelevant for the home video market. How many people actually burn their own DVDs for viewing in their home theater? I can guarantee you that the number is so small as to have no impact on this market decision.

Ok admit it. Blu-ray media is cheaper.

This is simply incorrect. A price sheet from a replicator was posted a few days ago in one of the IFA threads, which showed that BD-25 was slightly more expensive in almost all cases than HD DVD-30. Only in one quantity and delivery method was BD-25 the same price as HD DVD-30.

Additionally, we have a data point from Paramount that says that BD is more time-consuming to author than HD DVD (though no numbers were given, so it's tough to quantify).

Check 300 movie. It sells $5 more in HD DVD...

It also has more features, so the pricing reflects the added value. Price and cost-of-goods-sold have little to do with each other in the retail market. Additionally, the perceived higher media price of HD DVD has a lot to do with combos. However, the price of a combo is less than the price of a BD and an SD, which is what I would need for a family film that my kids will watch in the van or the playroom. Yes, the combo is more expensive than a BD, but in some cases, this movie will actually cost me less in combo than it would in BD. (Truth is, I would never buy a family film in BD - I have to have the SD capability)

The players are about the same or 100-200 less for HD DVD which i dont think counts much. You will get 20-30 movies in BD and will save the money...

$249 vs $449 is a big deal for the majority of buyers. It may not matter to enthusiasts, but they don't really buy that much equipment or rent very much software.

Also Blu-ray have so much more players even now from so many brands that Toshiba choice seems lame.

Onkyo? LG? Samsung? Venturer?

OK we know that HD DVD is 30GB and BD is 50. That counts believe me.

Why? If the movie fits on a HD DVD-30 with lossless audio and video that is outstanding, why do I need more storage? The srudios have already moved to put extras on a 2nd SD DVD, even if the space isn't needed - it's about marketing. I see this as a red herring - space matters on a PC for data storage, but I only need enough space to watch a 3-hour movie in a video application.

And BD can go 100 and 200GB so its at least future proof. And what?

So what? Again, I have no need of this, and you can bet that Joe Average will never see any benefit from it, even with today's newer 1080p sets.

Current players dont support 100GB? Who cares, at the time we need 100GB we will definitely need another/new player anyway.

I, for one, hope we don't go that way. I don't like planned obsolescence in any way, shape, or form - it is the most underhanded of marketing ploys. BD has already lied to their customer base about 1.0, 1.1, 2.0 - why would I trust them for the future?

Please continue this in one of the gazillion Paramount threads. No need to start a new one.