I was at my local BB over the weekend and I saw 2 families buying TVs and HTIBs. One had a 37 inch LCD that I think was 768p and the other had a 42 inch TV that may have been 1080p. As for the HTIBs, on was LG and the other Panasonic. I doubt either does much more than DTS.

My bet is that these 2 families now have more advanced TVs and audio systems that 80% of the people in the US.

Now this got me to thinking...how will these families benefit from HD DVD or Blu-Ray? My bet is that it will now be years before they buy new TVs and new audio systems, and I am sure they feel that their new systems are close to state of the art. But a good upscaling DVD player will look just as good on that 37 inch TV (not 1080p), and let’s face it, no advanced audio will work on their HTIB.

So what will better serve these families? What would make them buy HDM?

Discs not supported by all their other players? No way.
Larger capacity? Maybe.
Higher bitrate? No.
Losses Audio? Not supported.
1080p? Sure, but that upscaler looks good in 720p too.
More features/Interactivity/PiP/etc? YES!

What does everyone else think? I think added value is what will drive HDM sales in the next few years. I love the idea of watching a movie, and wondering “who is that actor and where have I seen him before”, then clicking on a button to bring up an IMDB like page. There are probably a million more ideas we have not thought of, but I believe this is where J6P will find the real benefits

Low price. That's what they are looking at when they buy the tv's, and it's what they will look at when buying a next gen player.

Price the HD player just over the upscaler, and most will figure, 'why not?'...

Price the HD player 4x the upscaler, and most will figure, 'not gonna happen'...

Even if they can't take advantage of the HD audio now, they will see the difference in picture right away, and a small increase in price would be worth it. No point in spending all that money on a new tv and not take advantage of the great picture quality.

Correct me if I am wrong, but won't HD audio piped thru a basic DTS/AC3 system sound better than audio from an SD DVD, as the HD audio is streamed at a higher bitrate thru the standard audio connections?

This until recently, was still an enthusiast website and as enthusiasts , we're pretty crazy when it comes to things like speakers, TVs, video, audio. We expect the best because we can pay for it! (The usual elitist crap from the well-heeled hifi maniacs).

This is why avsforum doesn't seem to have an active ipod/mp3 section. ;)

You might as well say chinese made soc $20 1GB flash players capped at 128kbps mp3 are enough for J6P, because it really is when you're using $1.99 earphones.

How about by not calling the average consumer condescending terms like J6P for starters?

...You might as well say chinese made soc $20 1GB flash players capped at 128kbps mp3 are enough for J6P, because it really is when you're using $1.99 earphones.
So true!:D

So what will better serve these families? What would make them buy HDM? How about HDM being both available and affordable? Instead of Target and others deliberately keeping HDM away from consumers?

Price, definitely. Especially on the movies themselves. This is what's going to happen. They get their new HDTV, and even if their old player doesn't up-convert, the TV itself will, and chances are that it will do a fairly decent job (Faroudja has really come down in price since HQV started competing with them). If and when they get a high-def player, they will still have a lot of their collection on DVD, so they will, eventually, get to compare the two. At this point they will realize that there is little difference in picture quality (not on a 37" display with 768 vertical resolution). They will tell their friends, and the chances of those others buying even a $200 high-def player will go down. They will see that DVDs look pretty darn good on their new TV (which they do, let's face it), and since the movies themselves cost an extra $5 or more, they are still going to primarily buy DVDs. Even if they bought a high-def player, there won't be many movies they would spend extra to get in high-def.

As for audio, it is a lot less important to the masses than even picture quality. As long as you get nice separation, a little surround, and a thumping sub it sounds great. And you can easily get that from a $500 system. It won't be anywhere near great sound for the audiophiles, but it will sound fantastic to everyone else.

How about HDM being both available and affordable? Instead of Target and others deliberately keeping HDM away from consumers?

So true. I think one BDA strategy is to choke the HD DVD supply line. My target carries jack squat for hd dvd. My Walmart has one title. My BB is stocked to the gills, but I am not willing to pay MSRP. Fry's carries them but that is 1.5 trip. So, if I want HDM, Amazon is really it. IMO, HDM is still far away from so many things, retailing being the major item.

Yes its all about price the cost of the HTIB was likely less then the cost of a HDM player.

I think another factor is many have just got into DVD in the last few years. Now their being told to upgade to a new format. To them DVD is the New format. VHS has finally lost.

the cost of the software as well is a facotr. The average store sells HDM at $30 or so were as a DVD gos for 15-20 in the fisrts week. So now they have to spend 2x more for their moives as well.

Who's to say the players get hooked up right. Id guess their at least a few hooked up by compsite or svideo. So they see no differnce and just buy DVD for the HDM players. I can see this happening as the players are offten offered at lower prices. When bought with a TV. Plus the 5 free movies is big

I think added value is what will drive HDM sales in the next few years. I love the idea of watching a movie, and wondering “who is that actor and where have I seen him before”, then clicking on a button to bring up an IMDB like page. There are probably a million more ideas we have not thought of, but I believe this is where J6P will find the real benefits

Interactivity is the wave of the future. Even without taking advantage of higher quality AQ/PQ .. being able to feel part of something bigger. Getting more for their dollar.

When buying a movie beens becoming part of a bigger community. Ability to create alternate endings... preview other movies with __________ actor or by ____________ director. Downloading movie themes or soundtracks. Ability to interact with other devices .. say XB360, home PC, satellite/cable STB.

Imagine when playing _____________ movie, you could then also tell your XBOX to download the demo of the game. Gaining points in the game would enable alternative endings on your movie disc. Watching a movie and finding X number of clues and then solving a puzzle would unlock additional features and footage. Easter eggs.

The possibilities are actually limitless with that standard ethernet connection. It's just going to take time before the studios realize how to actually use it to benefit them.

There could be only one format...

There could be only one format...

Only if I get to choose.

How about by not calling the average consumer condescending terms like J6P for starters?

How about Ethan Pinot Noir? He has a 50" plasma and the full Bose Lifestyle HT system.

Only if I get to choose.

Fine. HD DVD would be my second choice, but I'd far prefer that to this format war dragging on. Some of us actually want a viable HDM market. The problem is that I don't believe HD DVD can actually win this thing. After all of their "cheaper player" crap failed to win them any movie sales advantage or retail support, they finally bought off a studio. I bet it doesn't even get them a sales lead this week (despite BoG).

The difference between you and me is that if HD DVD were this far ahead at this point, I'd be rooting for it.

Fine. HD DVD would be my second choice, but I'd far prefer that to this format war dragging one. Some of us actually want a viable HDM market.
The problem is that I don't believe HD DVD can actually win this thing. After all of their "cheaper player" crap failed to win them any movie sales advantage or retail support, they finally bought off a studio. I bet it doesn't even get them a sales lead this week (despite BoG).

The difference between you and me is that if HD DVD were this far ahead at this point, I'd be rooting for it.

Have a lttle faith why don't you. Q4 will be the opportunity to negate the PS3 effect by HD DVD's low priced players and blockbuster Q4 movies. 2007 isn't over yet.

Have a lttle faith why don't you. Q4 will be the opportunity to negate the PS3 effect by HD DVD's low priced players and blockbuster Q4 movies. 2007 isn't over yet.

Our eyes are wide open and watching for this on the nielsen videoscan. And of course, I will bookmark this link just to see if things unfold the way you prophesize. ;)

That's a lot of BD disks sold every week and gadgets that can play BD to overcome. Last set of numbers showed a spike to 300K BDs/wk when 300 launched.

Our eyes are wide open and watching for this on the nielsen videoscan. And of course, I will bookmark this link just to see if things unfold the way you prophesize. ;)

That's a lot of BD disks sold every week and gadgets that can play BD to overcome. Last set of numbers showed a spike to 300K BDs/wk when 300 launched.

Please do bookmark it. Foresight matched against hindsight is always interesting.

How about HDM being both available and affordable? Instead of Target and others deliberately keeping HDM away from consumers?

how about HD DVD having better sales numbers so that retailers would be more reluctant to pull it off the shelves...

how about HD DVD having better sales numbers so that retailers would be more reluctant to pull it off the shelves...The sales numbers will come along with the proliferation of players, and if Target continues along the present path, those sales will be made elsewhere.

The sales numbers will come along with the proliferation of players, and if Target continues along the present path, those sales will be made elsewhere.

DVD beat Divx while players were still expensive. CD players were expensive when it became the next-gen standard over cassette tape. MP3 players are STILL expensive, yet sell better than HDM players. Find me an exampleof a media-distribution format war that was resolved by lowering prices.

DVD beat Divx while players were still expensive. CD players were expensive when it became the next-gen standard over cassette tape. MP3 players are STILL expensive, yet sell better than HDM players. Find me an exampleof a media-distribution format war that was resolved by lowering prices.


DVD didn't start to over take VHS until the players became affordable. Most people who own a DVD player bought it for under $99 (my mom's was $24). CDs didn't take over cassettes until they became affordable either. Plus in both cases we are compaing superior to inferior products.

Also, look at the PS3 vs the Wii. Why does the Wii outsell the PS3 more than 2:1? Price. The PS3 is HD and the Wii still is killing it in every market. The PS3 had every advantage to begin with and they blew it because of price.

Memory stick vs. SD cards? I am sure there are lots more.

This until recently, was still an enthusiast website and as enthusiasts , we're pretty crazy when it comes to things like speakers, TVs, video, audio. We expect the best because we can pay for it! (The usual elitist crap from the well-heeled hifi maniacs).

This is why avsforum doesn't seem to have an active ipod/mp3 section. ;)


Doesn't the enthusiast need to the mass market to join in so the mass market sized DVD selection of content becomes available in high def?

Movie industry doesn't care about mass adoption though unless it's accompanied by mass profits.

how about HD DVD having better sales numbers so that retailers would be more reluctant to pull it off the shelves...

If that were the case, neither BD nor HD DVD would be on shelves as sales of both, combined, are pathetic.

DVD beat Divx while players were still expensive. Divx didn't fold because it was beaten, it was shut down by Circuit City CEO Rick Sharp due to his frustration at the lack of software support from two studios with hot titles Divx desperately needed. Yes, they were Paramount and Dreamworks. Strong support from Disney, Fox, and MGM wasn't enough. Does that sound like another, more recent format?

Find me an exampleof a media-distribution format war that was resolved by lowering prices.
By June 1999, several models of DVD player could be had for under $300 (Toshiba had worked very hard to get an MSRP $300 model on the market for the 1998 Christmas season), and that price level was responsible for bringing in many entry-level buyers. Do you really think that DVD would have sold as well as it did during the Christmas season of 1998 if all players had been priced at current Blu-Ray levels?

I find it funny that most think spending $500 on a TV and $199 on a player is cheap. :)

Most people won't spend more than $300 at most and if they see that a player costs half as much as their TV and the DVD's to play on them are almost twice as much as SD DVD's, they will most likely steer clear until prices really drop.

For J6P to buy into HDM, he will need the following:

1. 37" or larger HDTV must cost $300 or less.
2. HiDef players must be $99 or less.
3. HiDef DVD prices need to be the same price as SD DVD so they can see the benefit and justification of buying a player when the HiDef DVD's cost the same as SD DVD's.
4. Day and Date HiDef releases need to be on sale for the first week like SD DVD's.
Pricing HiDef DVD's at full price on day and date just doesn't feel good on the wallet or an impulse buy.

I find it funny that most think spending $500 on a TV and $199 on a player is cheap. :)

Most people won't spend more than $300 at most and if they see that a player costs half as much as their TV and the DVD's to play on them are almost twice as much as SD DVD's, they will most likely steer clear until prices really drop.

For J6P to buy into HDM, he will need the following:

1. 37" or larger HDTV must cost $300 or less.
2. HiDef players must be $99 or less.
3. HiDef DVD prices need to be the same price as SD DVD so they can see the benefit and justification of buying a player when the HiDef DVD's cost the same as SD DVD's.
4. Day and Date HiDef releases need to be on sale for the first week like SD DVD's.
Pricing HiDef DVD's at full price on day and date just doesn't feel good on the wallet or an impulse buy.


Do you know this because *YOU* are J6P?

Even if HDM players and SD DVD players were the same price and if discs were the same price, J6P might still opt for SD DVD because he already has an existing SD library. Why change?

Better picture is one reason. I don't think HD audio matters or is even supported by 99% of the receivers out there. So what else can HDM offer to get people to switch?

Even if HDM players and SD DVD players were the same price and if discs were the same price, J6P might still opt for SD DVD because he already has an existing SD library. Why change?

Better picture is one reason. I don't think HD audio matters or is even supported by 99% of the receivers out there. So what else can HDM offer to get people to switch?
Another thing people need to keep in mind is if you have a good tube/flat TV, DVD's don't look too bad even in 480i. So why upgrade if you can enjoy your SD DVD movies on your current setup and prices of back catalog SD DVD's are around $5-10 these days.

Even if HDM players and SD DVD players were the same price and if discs were the same price, J6P might still opt for SD DVD because he already has an existing SD library. Why change?

Better picture is one reason. I don't think HD audio matters or is even supported by 99% of the receivers out there. So what else can HDM offer to get people to switch?

IME and IF's - that is what the studios are counting on.

I find it funny that most think spending $500 on a TV and $199 on a player is cheap. :)

Most people won't spend more than $300 at most and if they see that a player costs half as much as their TV and the DVD's to play on them are almost twice as much as SD DVD's, they will most likely steer clear until prices really drop.

For J6P to buy into HDM, he will need the following:

1. 37" or larger HDTV must cost $300 or less.
2. HiDef players must be $99 or less.
3. HiDef DVD prices need to be the same price as SD DVD so they can see the benefit and justification of buying a player when the HiDef DVD's cost the same as SD DVD's.
4. Day and Date HiDef releases need to be on sale for the first week like SD DVD's.
Pricing HiDef DVD's at full price on day and date just doesn't feel good on the wallet or an impulse buy.

I think your post is 100% right on. I was in Wal-Mart getting groceries the other day and saw a guy in a very nice business suit pushing a cart with a 37 inch square, sd tv (not even a "flat" screen) through the parking lot and toward his Hummer. Obviously money isn't an issue for this guy, but he's buying extreely outdated technology. And some people think "average" income earners are going to do different? Not hardly.

Until hardware prices fall dramatically and until software costs are virtually identical to dvd, HDM isn't going to become mainstream. People forget what a huge upgrade there was between dvd and vhs AND that DVD had the "cool" factor ("oh, they're like CDs, they're so much smaller than my tapes and my vcr doesn't eat them!"). The overwhelming majority of consumers isn't going to see HDM as a format worth changing over. If the price is the same, only then will they embrace new technology.

If Paramount/DW/Universal wanted to ensure that HDM was successful, they would produe only combos and quit producing "stand alone" dvds. But, they'd have to do this with sd dvd pricing. I'm sure they'd lose money, so it won't happen.

I don't see this generation of media ever going mainstream.

I was at my local BB over the weekend and I saw 2 families buying TVs and HTIBs. One had a 37 inch LCD that I think was 768p and the other had a 42 inch TV that may have been 1080p. As for the HTIBs, on was LG and the other Panasonic. I doubt either does much more than DTS.

A common sight. When HDM media makes it into $400 HTIBs, the deal will be sealed.

My bet is that these 2 families now have more advanced TVs and audio systems that 80% of the people in the US.

The focus for retailers now is to take advantage of the upswing in interest in audio. This is easier now than it was with DVDA/SACD because there's a big pretty picture involved, not just better sound. The onus is on retailers now to ensure that their HDM setups are properly complemented by appropriate audio.

Now this got me to thinking...how will these families benefit from HD DVD or Blu-Ray? My bet is that it will now be years before they buy new TVs and new audio systems, and I am sure they feel that their new systems are close to state of the art. But a good upscaling DVD player will look just as good on that 37 inch TV (not 1080p), and let’s face it, no advanced audio will work on their HTIB.

So what will better serve these families? What would make them buy HDM?

Well you did see this at BB. Their associates are not paid to advise, only clerk and pimp PSPs. New, casual consumers need to be shown these devices and benefits explained. Marching them over to HTIBs (today's iteration, anyway) will not serve the purpose.

What does everyone else think? I think added value is what will drive HDM sales in the next few years.

I think forcing the players into the target products is what needs to happen. This means built-in HDM players in flat-panel sets and integration into HTIBs. The industry needs to get with the program and identify what the consumer likes to buy 90% of the time, and work accordingly. The higher-end market will have the personalized consultation.

I love the idea of watching a movie, and wondering “who is that actor and where have I seen him before”, then clicking on a button to bring up an IMDB like page. There are probably a million more ideas we have not thought of, but I believe this is where J6P will find the real benefits

I agree but they have to have the hardware first. I think the best thing is allow manufacturers to remove the choice and integrate these devices into the hardware and allow the clerks on the store to learn the product as normal. The HDM will fall into that learning process automatically, allowing them to know it better and eliminate confusion.

So what will better serve these families? What would make them buy HDM?

Ultimately, price and content.

HDM has to be cheaper. I think the hardware is taking care of itself... getting under $200 by the holidays is great, and I'm sure we'll see further discounts in the months/years ahead. That's fantastic. But $30-40 retail on titles is nuts. I'll pay that (because I'm a whore and I get plenty off retail via online discounts), but your average consumer is used to paying $17 for new releases at Best Buy and $6-10 for catalogs at Wal-Mart. HDM prices don't have to drop to that level overnight, but $30 won't cut it.

And, simply put, not many people will buy into a format that does not have (nearly) universal studio support. They're not going to buy 1 machine for Shrek and another for Pixar. I suspect that this problem will also solve itself over the months ahead. As it becomes clear that neither format is going anywhere, studios are going to find it more and more difficult to ignore them.


All of that other stuff -- interactivity and such -- is icing on the cake. But I think most people make the initial purchase based on price, content, and quality. Quality is fantastic (and equal) for both formats, so that isn't a factor. Price and content are the biggies for 'average folks' considering high def media.

...I don't see this generation of media ever going mainstream.

The only way they can go mainstream is by promoting the extras and Internet connectivity. Link to new previews, games, and cool features I can not even imagine right now, is the only way.

The only way they can go mainstream is by promoting the extras and Internet connectivity. Link to new previews, games, and cool features I can not even imagine right now, is the only way.

+1

The only way they can go mainstream is by promoting the extras and Internet connectivity. Link to new previews, games, and cool features I can not even imagine right now, is the only way.
If prices dropped to SDVD levels, why wouldn't HDM go mainstream?

Threads bashing the middle class are accepted here? EAT THE RICH

Threads bashing the middle class are accepted here? EAT THE RICH

Krokus or Aerosmith? CD or vinyl?

Vinyl

by not trying to make J6P buy into all the Blu PR garbage so they can more clearly see that HD DVD is only format worth spending their money on.

Threads bashing the middle class are accepted here? EAT THE RICH

Who's bashing the middle class? BTW, that BB was the one in Eastgate (Cincy).

Porn, lots of porn.

Marketing on Sunday Night Football !

Who's bashing the middle class? BTW, that BB was the one in Eastgate (Cincy).

Many members here are, they dismiss anything added by someone who doesn't own a $7,000+ HT. And calling us J6P? That's insulting.

If prices dropped to SDVD levels, why wouldn't HDM go mainstream?

A very good question, one I believe many have failed to ask.

IMHO, HDM would not go mainstream (for a long time) because of the following:

1) The need to buy a new machine. Price aside, try to convince people that they need a new (another!) dvd player.

2) The need to have a display that can take advantage of the new player.

3) The need to have the new type of disc to get the full benefit. Face it, no company at this point is advertising or touting the upconversion capabilities of a new machine. Why? Because they want to sell you the same media all over again. Try to explain and sell that to the wife :p

4) The need to wait for older titles that people want to buy to show up on a HDM disc.

Even without the inane war, mainstream adoption is a long way off.

Many members here are, they dismiss anything added by someone who doesn't own a $7,000+ HT. And calling us J6P? That's insulting.

I get annoyed by some of the snobbery around here. People who feel that you need power conditioners, 10 gauge speaker wire, and other crazy things.

From now on I will use EPN - Ethan (or Evan if you wish) Pinot Noir.:cool:

I get annoyed by some of the snobbery around here. People who feel that you need power conditioners, 10 gauge speaker wire, and other crazy things.

From now on I will use EPN - Ethan (or Evan if you wish) Pinot Noir.:cool:

Maybe it is this attitude that keeps the average consumer from adopting HDM.

Maybe calling us people who love movies would be a more humane term.

Sarcastic snobbery. You must be proud of yourself. I hope one of the J6P people you refer to finds that attitude offensive on the street and changes your mind in a way that I cannot.:eek::cool:

Maybe it is this attitude that keeps the average consumer from adopting HDM.

Maybe calling us people who love movies would be a more humane term.

Sarcastic snobbery. You must be proud of yourself. I hope one of the J6P people you refer to finds that attitude offensive on the street and changes your mind in a way that I cannot.:eek::cool:

I do live in Cincy. I 'll try to stay away from your part of town. But if I see you, I will buy you a 6 pack. Hudy De-lite or Little Kings?

Considering J6P doesn't really care about HDM, the only way HDM can serve J6P is to give him the player for FREE!!!!!

What if Circuit City and Best Buy gave a free HD-A3 HD DVD player away with every TV sale over $999.

I mean look, Toshiba is going to give away 7 movies with each HD-A3, which is fine, but I think they should SAVE THE MONEY ON THE 7 FREE MOVIES, and just give the player away for free with any HDTV sold over $999 at all the major retailers.

Us J6P folk can only afford to shine our own booze. Plus the only reason we bought blu-ray is cuz we thought it was a huntin laser. Turns out the darn thing is a fancy movie player.

Considering J6P doesn't really care about HDM, the only way HDM can serve J6P is to give him the player for FREE!!!!!

What if Circuit City and Best Buy gave a free HD-A3 HD DVD player away with every TV sale over $999.

I mean look, Toshiba is going to give away 7 movies with each HD-A3, which is fine, but I think they should SAVE THE MONEY ON THE 7 FREE MOVIES, and just give the player away for free with any HDTV sold over $999 at all the major retailers.

I bet you will see deals like that this winter. The Chinese HD DVD player will only be about $149. I am sure stores will include it with larger TVs to get people to make that jump. "Why buy a 37 inch TV when I can get a 50 incher with a free HD movie player!"

I bet you will see deals like that this winter. The Chinese HD DVD player will only be about $149. I am sure stores will include it with larger TVs to get people to make that jump. "Why buy a 37 inch TV when I can get a 50 incher with a free HD movie player!"

Toshiba has already done this with The Fathers Day Grand Slam promotion.

It will also be a different playing field this Q4 as far as price of HDTV's and what retailers can do about them. Please keep in mind that the law was just changed to favor the manufacturer as far as the Minimum Advertised Selling Price (MASP).

I bet you will see deals like that this winter. The Chinese HD DVD player will only be about $149. I am sure stores will include it with larger TVs to get people to make that jump. "Why buy a 37 inch TV when I can get a 50 incher with a free HD movie player!"

Absolutely. It wouldn't shock me to see some retailers including cheap Chinese players as loss-leaders and packaging them with HDTVs in January (for Super Bowl sales).

Fine. HD DVD would be my second choice, but I'd far prefer that to this format war dragging on. Some of us actually want a viable HDM market. The problem is that I don't believe HD DVD can actually win this thing. After all of their "cheaper player" crap failed to win them any movie sales advantage or retail support, they finally bought off a studio. I bet it doesn't even get them a sales lead this week (despite BoG).

The difference between you and me is that if HD DVD were this far ahead at this point, I'd be rooting for it.
I could not have said it any better.

Bravo!

I bet it doesn't even get them a sales lead this week (despite BoG).

I wonder how well Blade of Glory did as the first HD DVD exclusive from Paramount ?

Speaking as one of them, it's going to take a really long time before regular folks feel the need to upgrade from DVD to any HD media. I know people with huge TVs connected with the crappiest connection and are completely satisfied with the picture "quality" they are receiving. Friend of mine has a 65 inch 1080p TV with his Wii connected with composite cables and has no interest whatsoever in any type of HD media, doesn't even have OTA high-def. The jaggies cut my eyes but he loves it.

I have family members you bought the latest flat panel TVs and are content watching cheap **** $5 bootleg dvds and regular satellite TV and wouldn't notice the difference in picture quality if it kicked their teeth in. The switch from VHS to DVD was caused by a lot of factors (convenience, cool factor, and the bump in picture quality didn't hurt). HD media doesn't offer the drastic change that will cause most J6P to take notice. DVD was a revolution, HDM is an evolution. And you know how most of us J6P feel about evolution.