View Full Version : EE Times - HD-DVD, Blu-ray sow high-definition 'confusion'


JWKessler
09-06-07, 02:17 PM
I just received this from EE Times and thought I'd share.

---

EE Times: Latest News
HD-DVD, Blu-ray sow high-definition 'confusion'

David Benjamin
(09/06/2007 12:36 PM EDT)
URL: http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=201804486


AMSTERDAM, Netherlands — The format battle among Hollywood studios and consumer electronics giants over control of the high-definition DVD market boils down to three words: "Confusion, confusion, confusion!"

That was the conclusion of panelists at the International Broadcast Conference which opened here on Thursday (Sept. 6). The video-disk industry insiders shared a litany of complaints based on the the HD DVD-Blue-ray Disc format war. The bloodless war's main combatants are Toshiba, creator of HD DVD, which is supported by Paramount and Dreamworks, versus Sony, which has sold most of the other Hollywood studios on Blu-ray.

The wild card in the dispute is Time Warner, inventor of the dual-format "Total HD" disk, reportedly due for a delayed launch in 2008, which will offer 25 gigabytes of Blu-ray on one side and HD-DVD on the other. This capacity represents only half the gigabytes demanded by most Blu-ray-affiliated content providers, a deficiency that prompted one panelist, Lesley Johnson, head of Production for 2Entertain of the U.K., to note, "This just seems to me to be another confusion. It's two disks just stuck together."

Jim Bottoms, co-founder of Understanding & Solutions, provided the bottom line on the critical issue of befuddling the consumer. "The longer the confusion exists for mass market consumers, they will want one format," he said. "If the market does not have a one-format solution within 18 months, the consumer will start to turn away."

When that happens, Bottoms warned, "There's a real danger that all this investment will be wasted."

Not all the panelists agreed with that estimate. Laurent Villaume, president of QOL, France, predicted that the two-format struggle will last into 2011, when--according to his company's research--40 percent of households in the U.S. will have some installed HD capacity, and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD market split will probably be about 60/40. "It's impossible to think," Villaume said, "that one format will be dead within this timeframe."

For now, according to Bottoms, Blu-ray commands 58 percent of industry support within the still embryonic high-definition disk market, with HD-DVD at 23 percent and Warner, supporting both formats, representing the other 19 percent.

One issue is settled, however. Although many consumers still can't define the difference between standard- and high-definition video, they finally want it. "Tomorrow," said Villaume, "high definition will be the rule." This trend has been accelerated by a proliferation of large-screen, flat-panel TV displays that tend to highlight the flaws in standard-definition video. HD game consoles, PCs and even camcorders, among other products, have joined the parade.

"More and more companies are cascading into this sector," said Bottoms. "If you want to sell content, it has to be produced in high-definition."

Although the panel agreed in HD's inevitability, they also agreed on the difficulty of producing HD disks at the breakneck speed expected by Hollywood studios, especially when the job must be duplicated in two incompatible formats. Johnson, who was responsible for creating the HD versions of the award-winning BBC series, "Planet Earth," summed up the two-pronged HD disk headache: "There's a lot to think about, a lot to navigate, a lot to get over."

Disk production expert Michael Zink, director of advanced technology for Technicolor USA, detailed the extraordinary challenges of producing, designing, authoring and double-formatting video content. "The studios want fast," he said. "But this is a very complicated manufacturing process."

Among the weapons recently deployed in the format war was Sony's Playstation 3 game console, which has the capacity to play Blu-ray DVDs. Sony has touted a sales spike for Blu-ray disks since the release of Playstation 3, but panelist Jean-Luc Renaud, publisher of DVD and Beyond 2007 in the U.K., was skeptical. He said gamers who bought Playstation 3 were initially "underwhelmed" with the selection of games available for the machine, so they switched to playing movies. But as Sony fills the games gap, he predicted, "the PS3's will go back to the kid's room" and consumer use of Playstations for movie-watching will drop off.

Another point of confusion for consumers is the fact that the cheapest HD-DVD player is still about $300, with Blu-ray players starting at twice that amount. The panelists agreed that in the long run, price will be less of a problem than format confusion.

Renaud added one last element that combined both dilemmas, price and format. He said one solution that might accommodate both camps is the inevitable development of dual format, HD-DVD/Blu-ray players. "It's more expensive," he said, "but it's another option--depending on how the [format] war goes."

Slim GoodBooty
09-06-07, 02:22 PM
I agree, and while it isn't good news in general it is good news for HD DVD. Now is the time we, as enthusiasts, need to band together and demand dual players before it's to late.

MidnightWatcher
09-06-07, 02:34 PM
Even better, let's demand that Blu-ray shrivel and die an agonizing death. :P

Slim GoodBooty
09-06-07, 02:39 PM
Even better, let's demand that Blu-ray shrivel and die an agonizing death. :P

OK. That will take about 5 years and will take HD DVD with it. Your call.

MidnightWatcher
09-06-07, 02:43 PM
Hmmmm, I honestly believe that HD DVD will be the format for the masses. The DVD moniker is recognized, trusted, and HD DVD is the logical step for those who've upgraded from a standard TV to a new HDTV.

MASrules
09-06-07, 02:54 PM
Hmmmm, I honestly believe that HD DVD will be the format for the masses. The DVD moniker is recognized, trusted, and HD DVD is the logical step for those who've upgraded from a standard TV to a new HDTV.
Hmmmm... I believe you could not be more wrong. I believe that HD DVD is struggling for survival and will be lucky to survive at all.

jkcheng122
09-06-07, 03:59 PM
Hmmmm, I honestly believe that HD DVD will be the format for the masses. The DVD moniker is recognized, trusted, and HD DVD is the logical step for those who've upgraded from a standard TV to a new HDTV.

not enough of an upgrade going from 9gb to 30gb imo.

sharkcohen
09-06-07, 04:10 PM
Heh, I thought Total HD was both formats on one side of a disk, not one on each side.

Michael Mullis
09-06-07, 04:24 PM
Hmmmm... I believe you could not be more wrong. I believe that HD DVD is struggling for survival and will be lucky to survive at all.

Yeah, did you read some of the CEDIA news this week my friend? I would hardly call HD DVD "struggling" for survival anymore.

And as it looks even by Sony's own goofy charts, Blu-ray isn't running away with things either.

Lee Stewart
09-06-07, 04:30 PM
Heh, I thought Total HD was both formats on one side of a disk, not one on each side.

Think of it as an HD Combo with HD on both sides.:mad:

Idea sucks if you ask me.

cybereality
09-06-07, 04:32 PM
Another point of confusion for consumers is the fact that the cheapest HD-DVD player is still about $300, with Blu-ray players starting at twice that amount. The panelists agreed that in the long run, price will be less of a problem than format confusion.

How is the price confusing? The MSRP is $300 for HD, $500 for BD. What is there to be confused about?

eightninesuited
09-06-07, 04:33 PM
Hmmmm, I honestly believe that HD DVD will be the format for the masses. The DVD moniker is recognized, trusted, and HD DVD is the logical step for those who've upgraded from a standard TV to a new HDTV.

People were also very familiar with the Walkman name. I know people who wouldn't buy a Cd player or casette player that wasn't a Walkman 10 years ago. Now it's all about the Ipod. What's an Ipod anyways?

It's about marketing. 2 things can happen:

1. People don't need to be told what HD DVD is, as it's self-educating. That's a huge plus for the format. WTH is a Blu-ray some might ask.

2. However, the worst thing that can happen is that people start confusing the two because of the DVD name thinking that you can play HD DVD on your DVD player because their tv is an HDTV. Never overestimate the ignorance or the J6P. If that's the case, everything in the future will be combo discs to aphease them - which CANNOT happen due to many reasons regarding rental issues, as we found out from early DVDs.

ottscay
09-06-07, 04:36 PM
"If the market does not have a one-format solution within 18 months, the consumer will start to turn away."

When that happens, Bottoms warned, "There's a real danger that all this investment will be wasted."

Duh. But some of you don't want to believe this.

Michael Mullis
09-06-07, 04:39 PM
Duh. But some of you don't want to believe this.

Not true. Just not all of us adhere to "There needs to be one format and it HAS to be Blu-ray."

Many of you will be very upset, and from the sound of some here may even hurt themselves, if HD DVD pulled this out.

ottscay
09-06-07, 04:57 PM
Not true. Just not all of us adhere to "There needs to be one format and it HAS to be Blu-ray."

Many of you will be very upset, and from the sound of some here may even hurt themselves, if HD DVD pulled this out.

Honestly, if HD DVD were in the position BD was in immediately prior to the Paramount announcement, I would have been rooting for it (and I would have been pissed if the BDA had dropped a huge chunk of change to prolong the war). I prefer Blu-ray, but I much more prefer having a viable HDM replacement for DVD. What disturbs me atm is how many HD DVD fans AND insiders have already given up the ghost on DVD replacement. That is not a strategy I will support, especially when it's the losing format atm.

nfinity
09-06-07, 05:09 PM
I personally think that the confusion is caused by Blu-Ray only..HD DVD by it's name is very clear. It's hi-definition DVD. Simple. Blu-Ray is coming in with the new name, some specs spewing beyond hi-definition crap and charging 2-3 times and more in some cases for equipment. Of course everyone is confused.

HD DVD has been clear cut from start.

- Real hi-definition quality ( better then upscaled DVD)
- Great sound with TrueHD (very clear what this is)
- Interactivity and Online capability
- Much cheaper players
- Name recognition and backup by DVD forum that everyone knows

I don't see what's the confusion that HD DVD brings? Blu-Ray are the ones who have to somehow mix up the waters so they would shake the HD DVD name, so they start coming out with "beyond hi-definition" names, Blu-Ray name that has absolutely no connection to hi-definition, Profiles here and there. Ridiculous.

And someone says that both are somehow to blame for this. Laughable to say the least.

Lee Stewart
09-06-07, 05:18 PM
How is the price confusing? The MSRP is $300 for HD, $500 for BD. What is there to be confused about?

How about an update on those MSRP prices; $200 and $500. Article must have been written before the announcement of the Venturer HD DVD player.

Timothy Ramzyk
09-06-07, 05:20 PM
I think it's time to give up on Blu-ray and push HD DVD if people are serious about a new standard.

If people are really honest, they know $150 - $250 finished hardware, and a unified front have a much better chance, than $400 -$500 and unfinished spec players do.

See this as flame-bait if you want, I'm just saying what I honestly believe is now the best shot. I'd have also bought BD if the price for a decent, 1.1 player was $300-$375, but I'm getting sick of hearing it's always months away, and I think they gotta get up to speed and down to cost if they want to do anything but make this "war" impossible for either to win.

khwiggins2
09-06-07, 05:28 PM
Part of the consumer confusion is also caused because the more expensive players have less features. I wonder how many scratch their heads and walk away after seeing that? I know that I used to equate $ with quality.

FrancescoP
09-06-07, 05:33 PM
First thing to do to reduce confusion: Sony should make mandatory a sticker on all BD players with the following labels:

Profile 1.0
Profile 1.1
Profile 2.0 (BD-Live)

So nobody will ever buy the wrong Blu-Ray player by mistake.

Slim GoodBooty
09-06-07, 05:42 PM
First thing to do to reduce confusion: Sony should make mandatory a sticker on all BD players with the following labels:

Profile 1.0
Profile 1.1
Profile 2.0 (BD-Live)

So nobody will ever buy the wrong Blu-Ray player by mistake.
And every movie should say:
Main Feature : BD 1.0 player Required
Menus : BD 1.0 player Required
Extras : BD 1.1 Player Required
Online Content :BD 2.0 Player Required

Or the like.

And customers hate that crap. Maybe they could do Garanimal style matching to make it fun. 1.0 can be a zebra. 1.1 lion and 2.0 a bear.:p

Timothy Ramzyk
09-06-07, 05:58 PM
First thing to do to reduce confusion: Sony should make mandatory a sticker on all BD players with the following labels:

Profile 1.0
Profile 1.1
Profile 2.0 (BD-Live)

So nobody will ever buy the wrong Blu-Ray player by mistake.

The reason why this pi$$es me off so much, is that now you can still buy the "wrong" DF player. I have one HD set-up, with no immediate plans of another, so unlike DVD, I can't even "retire" hardware to the bedroom TVs.

miata
09-06-07, 05:59 PM
Not too original but...

This is good news for dual format players:D

Michael Mullis
09-06-07, 06:09 PM
Honestly, if HD DVD were in the position BD was in immediately prior to the Paramount announcement, I would have been rooting for it (and I would have been pissed if the BDA had dropped a huge chunk of change to prolong the war). I prefer Blu-ray, but I much more prefer having a viable HDM replacement for DVD. What disturbs me atm is how many HD DVD fans AND insiders have already given up the ghost on DVD replacement. That is not a strategy I will support, especially when it's the losing format atm.


I guess if one of these formats was "losing" I'd agree with you. But this format war right now is being fought in the smallest of places. Forums like this, and electronic shows that no one in the mainstream is paying any attention to.

No one that I have talked to in my circle of friends that isn't a technophile or like me has ever said "Well, I'd buy HD DVD, but this damn format war", or "Well, I'd buy HD DVD, but Blu-ray is selling over it 2 to 1". No. I sold 5 of my non-techie friends on HD DVD by simply showing them some movies and letting them know whats coming.

If disc sales at 2:1 were in a total marketshare of 10%, I would be inclined to take your side more. But twice of not much is still not much. Blu-ray is hardly running away with this game.

Think of it this way. Blu-ray is getting shoved down everyone's thoats. The PS3. For a long time Best Buy and CC only endcapped Blu-ray and HD DVD was an afterthought (that has changed). Blockbuster. All that, and Blu-ray can't get more than a 2:1 lead with less than 1% of the market?

That isn't a winning format. HD DVD isn't winning either. But neither are losing. And I would say a format that just got the backing of arguably the #1 studio in town doesn't denote it's losing.

javayoda
09-06-07, 06:14 PM
And as it looks even by Sony's own goofy charts, Blu-ray isn't running away with things either.



Just 3:1 worldwide.

miata
09-06-07, 08:03 PM
I'm not sure that Paramount is a win for HD DVD so much as they were a loss to Blu-ray. Paramount had already been supporting HD DVD. I would interpret the move as a way to cut their losses in HDM.

Michael Mullis
09-06-07, 08:27 PM
Just 3:1 worldwide.

So 3:1 of nothing is more than 2:1 of nothing? Good call.

JWKessler
09-07-07, 10:38 AM
For me, hardware cost is a big deal. As long as a player sells above a certain price (which will vary for everyone) people will be inclined to think long and hard before buying one. If the price is below that threshold, buying a player will be more of an impulse decision. I for one would be willing to risk making the wrong choice if the cost was below my personal threshold.

I only mention this because as I understand it there are technical reasons why Blu-Ray players cost more. Apparently it has to do with the complexity of the optics compared with the simpler parts used in HD-DVD players. This means we should expect Blu-Ray to always be at least a bit more expensive than HD-DVD. HD-DVD has a better chance of becoming a commodity before Blu-Ray.