The real format war is NOT between HD DVD and BD. It is between HD and SD DVD. This is the real battle and it will not abode well for HD because the masses are not enamoured with better PQ and AQ ala LD. (Please no BS about recordability - DVD went without it for years and the public gobbled DVD up once DIVX was over and BBI announced store wide access to rental DVD's (first 2 years - buy only)

When the scales are tipped 98 to 2, it is senseless for the 2% combatants to battle each other. How much of todays marketing for HD players is geared to the single format owner? Versus towards the DVD owner?

Why no technical ads showing the consumer the real difference between HD and SD? Why do all the ads look like 1 minute movie trailers?

Is Hollywood taking HD seriously? Or are they looking at HD as some wild eye promise in the sky and tossing it a bone to see what happens?

How do you convince, without fear of losing - your DVD consumer, that he needs to go to HD and if he has a problem with that - well just go ahead and get the DVD like you always have.

:confused:

Oddly enough, I agree completely. Too bad these 2 organizations are too pre-occupied with each other to see the "forest"

Studio exclusivity is gumming up the works
J6P won't buy a player that can't play every movie available

If you buy the latest release on HD, then you probably never buy it on SD in the future. If you buy it on SD though, you most like will double dip and buy it on HD in the future.

That is what studios are thinking. How can we get these suckers to buy this as many times as possible? For them the more formats the better.

Just a question of time. It's kinda funny but when I bought my first HDTV back in 2001 and we settled down to watching it, my wife, who couldn't care less about HD, would ask me, "is that picture in HD" as she really could not tell the difference or simply didn't care. Now, six years later, it's, "awwwww, that picture's not in HD." It's taken her all this time to recognize and appreciate the superior PQ HD offers. It's going to take a number of years for mass public acceptance of HDM and the change over is going to be so gradual as not to be noticed. I think the studios and hardware manufactorers fully understand their in it for the long haul...they only have to remember the BetaMax/VHS format struggle and how long that took to decide a winner. As more and more people recognize and appreciate HD, if follows that most people eventually will up-grade their existing DVD players to HD players. It's inevitable!!!

Well, maybe HD DVD needs to do a tour like Disney is doing for Blu-ray.

It's a good introduction to HiDef and they have a nice setup with 7.1 audio and a decent screen/HDTV to show off the PQ/AQ. They also show some of the games and extras.

The Disney mall tour is Blu-ray biased but perhaps HD DVD needs to do the same to show case their stuff to J6P when they are walking through the mall.

People were huddled all around and inside the Disney display asking questions and trying to get the details about Blu-ray/HiDef.

I mean, we can't depend on Best Buy, Circuit City and Frys to do this for J6P when they might not make it any further than the mall when it comes to their purchasing.

I agree with the OP...
...That's why I think price of BOTH hardware and software is so important.

I think most of the people (right now) will not care about which formats they buy. They like DVD and so far, DVD is cheap and does the job.

If they could be TALKED into trying HD formats WITHOUT the price issue, I think some (maybe millions) of those customers could be won (by seeing the difference in pic, sound and interactivity).

Well, maybe HD DVD needs to do a tour like Disney is doing for Blu-ray.

It's a good introduction to HiDef and they have a nice setup with 7.1 audio and a decent screen/HDTV to show off the PQ/AQ. They also show some of the games and extras.

The Disney mall tour is Blu-ray biased but perhaps HD DVD needs to do the same to show case their stuff to J6P when they are walking through the mall.

People were huddled all around and inside the Disney display asking questions and trying to get the details about Blu-ray/HiDef.

I mean, we can't depend on Best Buy, Circuit City and Frys to do this for J6P when they might not make it any further than the mall when it comes to their purchasing.

Actually HD DVD already did the tour- last year....

I thought it was very cool- others I dragged witn me, not so much

http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/07/11/north-american-hd-dvd-promotional-group-to-showcase-the-look-an/

Well, maybe HD DVD needs to do a tour like Disney is doing for Blu-ray.

It's a good introduction to HiDef and they have a nice setup with 7.1 audio and a decent screen/HDTV to show off the PQ/AQ. They also show some of the games and extras.

The Disney mall tour is Blu-ray biased but perhaps HD DVD needs to do the same to show case their stuff to J6P when they are walking through the mall.

People were huddled all around and inside the Disney display asking questions and trying to get the details about Blu-ray/HiDef.

I mean, we can't depend on Best Buy, Circuit City and Frys to do this for J6P when they might not make it any further than the mall when it comes to their purchasing.they did (http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://i.zdnet.com/gallery/38368-525-394.jpg&imgrefurl=http://content.zdnet.com/2346-9595_22-38367-1.html&h=394&w=525&sz=20&hl=en&start=2&tbnid=sFjlqT0byAKh6M:&tbnh=99&tbnw=132&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhd%2Bdvd%2Btour%26gbv%3D2%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3De n)

Studio exclusivity is gumming up the works
J6P won't buy a player that can't play every movie available

Without a doubt, the single most cynical and anti-consumer aspect of this entire format war. UInfortunately, both sides felt the need to tie up studios with exclusive agreements.

Without a doubt, the single most cynical and anti-consumer aspect of this entire format war. UInfortunately, both sides felt the need to tie up studios with exclusive agreements.yep, I really don't think it helps that Sony owns a studio, as well.
that just means that they are always going to try and do things on there own.

Where Lee has a great point and I agree. There is another problem. And that is that here in the states people are getting older. Because of this they cannot see the detail as well anyway. Not only that tech is embraced much quicker by younger people. So HDM is going to be a uphill battle and with the current state of affairs. I think that both HD DVD and BD could win some battles but loose the war. But I donot expect to see them work together to promote the media that would be too easy.

And that is that here in the states people are getting older. Because of this they cannot see the detail as well anyway.
I've seen this ridiculous argument before. Not to be to strident but NEWS FLASH - people are getting older everywhere, and at the same rate too! Seriously, who in the US doesn't have 20/20 vision these days? There's never been a time when more people have better vision. Even those who've had cataract surgery, for the most part, have vision that is close to most younger people.

The reason HDM fails or succeeds will have nothing to do with the visual acuity of the population.

I don't think either format has a chance to "win". Studios would have to start cancelling DVD releases before anyone else can take the top spot, and that just won't happen.

Even if HD-DVD and Bluray ends up being comparable to Laserdiscs in sales, it will still be ok because Laserdiscs lasted for over a decade, and there will always be a market for people who want the absolute best in video/sound quality in their movies.

But DVD's are never going to die because the average consumer thinks they're good enough, even when watching it through their HDTV upconverted.

This HD-DVD/Bluray war will continue to put up insignificant sales numbers to the point where dual format players come down enough in price (or individual players are cheap enough for people to own both) and then every HD enthusiast will own both. While J6P continues to live on DVD.

But I don't think even a $100 HD-DVD player is going to make a serious dent in those people already loving their $50 DVD upconverters and $12-15 DVD movies.

A lot of people I know bought into DVD for the convenience and price; not the superior picture to VHS. I know a lot of people that are watching DVD over a composite connection because that is all their TV offers.

So, HD formats need to have HD ready sets to hook into which will be a hurdle that gets easier to overcome with every passing month and year. The next problem is that a HD disc shows better than a SD upconverted version on larger sets. The older population with a 37" set will be less likely to be blown away by the difference than someone younger watching on a 50" or larger set. On a smaller set the difference isn't as stratling as the difference between DVD and VHS was.

The older demographic will smaller HD ready sets (or no HD ready set at all) will remember the VHS/Beta "war" of 2 decades ago and hold off for a "winner" so as not to be stuck with the new Betamax...

All of these reasons are going to hold these formats back. For me I have a 720p RP LCD set and would love to go to a HD format. For now I am sticking with upconverted DVDs and HD on my HD PVR. When one format "wins" I will buy into that and never look back. I am not interested in buying movies in two different formats (even if dual format players get really good and inexpensive). I only want to collect in one format. I have over 200 DVDs and would love to start a HD library. Until these companies come to their senses or the marketplace does it for them I will continue to watch upconverted DVDs and HD movies off of my PVR.

Where Lee has a great point and I agree. There is another problem. And that is that here in the states people are getting older. Because of this they cannot see the detail as well anyway. Not only that tech is embraced much quicker by younger people. So HDM is going to be a uphill battle and with the current state of affairs. I think that both HD DVD and BD could win some battles but loose the war. But I donot expect to see them work together to promote the media that would be too easy.

I know that the Baby Boomers are entering their retirement years and they are still the largest segment of the consumer market.

It may not be as much of an issue of not seeing detail . . . but an issue of TV, specifically movies, doesn't interest them as much. If they have HD there is plenty to watch with more coming very shortly.

HDM just may not be a priority. Well in actuality - it isn't.

The day we start seeing actual monthly sales numbers for players is the day that HDM will be considered a success. But so far all we see and hear are precentages. Because 60/40 sounds much better then 300,000/200,000. Not after almost 18 months (there's that damn number again)

I think that success of HD dvd is tied directly to the widespread of hi-definition programming on TV. If majority of channels were in hi-def, people would start noticing the difference between hi-def and regular dvd and thus go for the hi-def version of dvd as well.

Actually HD DVD already did the tour- last year....

I thought it was very cool- others I dragged witn me, not so much

http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/07/11/north-american-hd-dvd-promotional-group-to-showcase-the-look-an/

Well, great they did something out of the gates(a year ago ????) but now they need to get back out there and do it again.
Except this time, get the equipment out of the rigs and display them in an open area where there is a good amount of J6P traffic.
How about doing a tour of football stadiums ?

Like advertise on the big screen inside and then have an open display outside the stadium for people to come and look around.

I'm sure there's plenty more idea's but the BDA and DVD Forum needs to get the word/info out to the general public, not the enthusists who are already onboard/aware.

I don't think either format has a chance to "win". Studios would have to start cancelling DVD releases before anyone else can take the top spot, and that just won't happen.

Even if HD-DVD and Bluray ends up being comparable to Laserdiscs in sales, it will still be ok because Laserdiscs lasted for over a decade, and there will always be a market for people who want the absolute best in video/sound quality in their movies.

But DVD's are never going to die because the average consumer thinks they're good enough, even when watching it through their HDTV upconverted.

This HD-DVD/Bluray war will continue to put up insignificant sales numbers to the point where dual format players come down enough in price (or individual players are cheap enough for people to own both) and then every HD enthusiast will own both. While J6P continues to live on DVD.

But I don't think even a $100 HD-DVD player is going to make a serious dent in those people already loving their $50 DVD upconverters and $12-15 DVD movies.
Well put. There does not need to be a "winner." All of these formats can coexist to meet the different needs of different people. We just need CE companies to get on the ball with attractively priced combo players.

If you buy the latest release on HD, then you probably never buy it on SD in the future. If you buy it on SD though, you most like will double dip and buy it on HD in the future.

That is what studios are thinking. How can we get these suckers to buy this as many times as possible? For them the more formats the better.

Except that it backfires when some of us stop buying new DVDs as we wait to decide which format to buy into for HDM.

I stopped buying new DVDs months ago just so I wouldn't have to buy everything twice.

Except that it backfires when some of us stop buying new DVDs as we wait to decide which format to buy into for HDM.

I stopped buying new DVDs months ago just so I wouldn't have to buy everything twice.
I've mostly stopped buying DVDs -- except for the kids.' I do buy some HDM, but am waiting for the prices to drop on many others.

But, I would guess that the bulk of consumers that make Walmart a huge DVD retailer are not yet thinking about DVD obsolescence.

I can't see the studios really have much incentive to push highdef discs yet. New titles are still selling mostly okay on DVD, there doesn't seem to be much extra copy protection on HDM yet, and they can still eventually sell all their catalog titles in whatever new format gets accepted, when/if/ever that happens.

So I don't see the studios (except for Sony) being willing to spend or sacrifice much right now to move things along.

- Tom

I think that people care more about movie availability.

If the studios want this to work, they need to start offering new releases sold only on HD media, while aggressively going after torrents and invitation-only torrent groups.

In the meantime, J6P will be satisfied with SD DVD. They'd rather laugh at stuff like this on YouTube than worry about HD:

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&VideoID=18560309

Even if HD-DVD and Bluray ends up being comparable to Laserdiscs in sales, it will still be ok because Laserdiscs lasted for over a decade, and there will always be a market for people who want the absolute best in video/sound quality in their movies.


And doing as well as Laserdisc is pretty much a worst-case scenario for HD. So why the anxiety? There is no need to try to "sell" HD to people who don't want it. Plenty of people do want it.

And doing as well as Laserdisc is pretty much a worst-case scenario for HD. So why the anxiety? There is no need to try to "sell" HD to people who don't want it. Plenty of people do want it.

You call 2% "plenty?":confused:

You call 2% "plenty?":confused:

The percentage is completely irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether HD is profitable.

The percentage is completely irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether HD is profitable.

Geez - that's even worse. It isn't profitable.

The real format war is NOT between HD DVD and BD. It is between HD and SD DVD. This is the real battle and it will not abode well for HD because the masses are not enamoured with better PQ and AQ ala LD.

Hi Lee,

This is a fundamental fact that many of the respective format fans fail to see, but until either format, or some event, can convince the mass market that HDM offers more value than DVD, then HDM adoption is going to be quite slow.


Is Hollywood taking HD seriously? Or are they looking at HD as some wild eye promise in the sky and tossing it a bone to see what happens?

It goes almost without saying that the studios, have to make sure that they preserve their current revenue base while pursuing potential new revenue streams. If they are serious about maintaining market share they have no choice to invest in the future. In this regard it would seem that the HD DVD format has a distinct strategic advantage in being able to hedge its bets because their HD discs can be manufacturered on existing production equipment with minimal added investment.

In contrast if demand begins to shift from SD to HD, let's say due to effective marketing, the Blu-ray camp must invest in expensive new production facilities while abandoning the DVD facilities. Now suppose you are part of Sony's senior management team and you are trying to ramp up HD production while avoiding risk. How do you justify spending billions in new production facilities when the outcome of the format war is not assured? You are confronted with the decision paralyzing prospect that you could end up with a huge investment in obsolete equipment that can't even produce DVDs.

Conversely, we can see that it is must less riskier for the HD DVD camp to make modest investments in existing facilities without "throwing the baby (DVD) out with the bath water."


How do you convince, without fear of losing - your DVD consumer, that he needs to go to HD and if he has a problem with that - well just go ahead and get the DVD like you always have.


Some folks state that despite what appears to be a slow start, HDM is being adopted faster than DVD was during its beginnings. And unlike other format wars in the past, there is one inpending event that will probably have a significant stimulus on HD adoption. That is the government mandated move from analog to digital broadcasting. Therefore, it is not a stretch of the imagination to expect nothing but HD displays being produced in the next few years. With that it is virtually certain that HD players will also see a significant increase in consumer demand, and with it finally mass market HDM demand.

Now, if you are Sony, and you finally accept the fact that HD DVD is not going to die anytime soon, then you want mass market adoption to be as slow as possible. That's because you are not in a position to handle mass market Blu-ray volumes in the short term, and slow HD adoption minimizes your risk exposure by spreading out the timing of your investment in new facilities.

If you are in the HD DVD exclusive camp a quickly increasing HD demand is much less of a problem because you practically already have the necessary production capacity. So you can try to further stimulate adoption by aggressive pricing of players.

There are a few other aspects of HD over DVD that is attractive to studios. HD player Interactivity coupled with broadband network connectivity presents the studios with all sort of new marketing opportunities, as well as helping to differentiate their titles from other studios.

The advent of managed copy may provide the studios with exhanced security while opening up whole new revenue streams to them.

Getting back to your question of how to induce the mass market to switch to HD without endangering their DVD revenue stream, the Combo or Triple Layer Twin discs can do that, if they are priced appropriately. Now, even with expected improvements in production processes it is not likely that these hydrid discs would ever be as inexpensive as DVDs. However, those studios who have the vision to see the new revenue streams inherent in HDM might be motivated to price the hybrids only a dollar or so higher than DVDs and start phasing out DVDs. This would be done while aggressive marketing campaigns explain all the advantages of what that extra dollar is buying the consumer.

In this case those HD DVD studios bold enough to play the hybrid disc card could be gaining first mover advantage in accessing new marketing channels, without losing their DVD customer base. Finally, such a decisive move could also end the format war sooner than most "experts" predict.

Larry

I completely agree that the real war is BD/HD DVD vs standard DVD. But with an army of cheap J6Ps out there that think standard dvd is good enough, I don't see any mass migrations from standard dvd anytime soon. The enthusiasts will move up, but that's it.

... But with an army of cheap J6Ps out there that think standard dvd is good enough, I don't see any mass migrations from standard dvd anytime soon...

That's me. Since you asked, here's what they would need to do. Since they want mo money, they need to offer more. That would be releasing HDM close to the theater release date - much before VOD and DVD. But, that leaves the question of whether their extra DRM is good enough.

For me (super cheap), no way am I spending >$10 for a DVD or HDM.

Brought to you by one of AVS's DVD fanboys. Just say no to HDM pricing.

I too feel that while DVD's don't look nearly as good as HDM, it is "good enough". I have up-converting DVD units hooked up to both of my HDTV's and they look world's better compared to watching them on my SDTV's.

As was brought up earlier, DVD's won over VHS because they were easier to use and manipulate for special features. HDM doesn't have that advantage over DVD.

D-VHS didn't sell for crap, yet the picture is every bit as good as HD-discs and you can record in HD! People just didn't want the hassle of tape anymore (as well as being ahead of it's time in regard to HD programing and sets). I'll get a HDM player as soon as ONE STANDARD IS ADOPTED.

LOL at people saying that they would be happy at HDM being as popular as Laserdisc! With all of that money being invested in HDM plants, it better do better than that!

The big difference between DVD and Blu-Ray is...
When DVD says they've won the war, I believe them!

At BB they have a Samsung BR player with a gold HD 1080p sticker on the front, but right next to is is another Samsung SD player with another gold HD 1080p sticker. They look the same! Why would some one pay $400 more for the Blu-Ray one that plays incompatible discs!!!!:eek:

(I know why but 90% of BB shoppers don't)

The big difference between DVD and Blu-Ray is...
When DVD says they've won the war, I believe them!

At BB they have a Samsung BR player with a gold HD 1080p sticker on the front, but right next to is is another Samsung SD player with another gold HD 1080p sticker. They look the same! Why would some one pay $400 more for the Blu-Ray one that plays incompatible discs!!!!:eek:

(I know why but 90% of BB shoppers don't)

This is more serious than most people think. They think that the DVD owner will make a choice between the two waring formats . . . and the 3rd option - the HDMI DVD player fits both his needs and his budget.

Just another obstacle in the path of HDM growth.:(

Well put. There does not need to be a "winner." All of these formats can coexist to meet the different needs of different people. We just need CE companies to get on the ball with attractively priced combo players.

I completely disagree. BD and to a lesser degree HD (much much lesser) have been subsidized to this point. Actual infrastructure costs, R&D, and even disk replication costs have not found their way to the consumer. If it becomes apparent that mass adoption will not occur, it is the responsibility of the company to adjust from a subsidization mode to a profit taking mode. This would make HD media much more expensive, especially BD. You would be pining for the days of $40 Fox barebones releases if you had to pay the true cost of the disks.

I am the sort of person that HD-DVD/Blu-Ray is after. I am not an early adopter (although in my younger days when I gamed a lot I certainly was a gamer early adopter).

I have a native 720p 50" set and have found many upconverted DVDs (e.g. Monster's Inc, The Incredibles) to offer a phenomenal viewing experience. I just finished watching the THX DVD version of Indiana Jones Raider's Of The Lost Arc and was very diappointed with the mised quality of this DVD. Lots of dirt and crap in parts and fuzziness in others. This is the sort of title that deserves a proper restoration and proper HD treatment. If enough of my old favourites like this one get put out on a HD format I may have to finally wade into these waters. A less than stellar DVD on my TV is annoying to watch after watching HD movies off my satellite.

That's me. Since you asked, here's what they would need to do. Since they want mo money, they need to offer more. That would be releasing HDM close to the theater release date - much before VOD and DVD. But, that leaves the question of whether their extra DRM is good enough.

For me (super cheap), no way am I spending >$10 for a DVD or HDM.

Brought to you by one of AVS's DVD fanboys. Just say no to HDM pricing.
I don't know about boycotting HDM since I want it to succeed. However, a good compromise is to hold the line on on overpriced media. It is a rare exception where I will pay more than $20. This means that I purchase everything from either Amazon or Fry's -- and Best Buy and Target HDM discs just sit on the shelves gathering dust. I did go a little crazy on the Amazon 3 for 2 sale to show my support. If people buy HDM at the right price it sends a clear message to the studios that pricing matters. On the other hand, if people keep on buying $35 combo titles it sends the wrong message.