A new article on CNBC a few minutes ago states that both formats have stalled and that it may take another 18 months before people start buying HDDVD in mass.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20960122/

Please remove thread I was posting at the same time as someone else who got there first.

Nope - that's the latest "talking point" from the Bluray camp.

Remember last week and the week before, they started saying that the format war would take 18 months more?

Now all their "research companies" that they are customers of are saying it too...

Sony and the Bluray camp NEED another year and a half, by many accounts, to get their product WORKING.

If HDM went mass market tomorrow, HD DVD could easily ramp up disc manufacturing, but Bluray would be hopelessly lost.

Bluray is NOT ready for mass market, and so they want to try to depress the WHOLE of the HDM market, and keep it "niche" - it's their only HOPE to buy time to try to come back and win later..

Yeah. Basically if it all comes down to Q4/07 -> Q1/08

HD-DVD would likely come out the winner. People start looking at after-holiday sales and wham, the no brainer, best bang for the buck is sitting there staring them right in their face -- and it doesn't have a BD logo on it.

Sony's back to their typical "maketing fear" tactics to try to stall consumers from adopting the "best bang for the buck" in hopes they can eventually get all of their cards in order for NEXT year.

It's sad when a company is actually advocating not buying their product just so that people buy nothing.

Want to get HD optical "unstalled"? Then end this silly "war"! I have no desire to have two HD players or even a dual format player. I have 200 DVDs and will gladly start collecting many of them over (along with new ones ) in a HD format.

Lots of others like me on the fence with a spare HDMI input waiting to see what happens. I honestly feel that the "war" is holding optical HD back far more than pushing it forward. Corporate greed and hubris is holding this progression back. Only time will tell if Blu-Ray will win out or be the next Betamax.

I will continue to watch HD movies over my PVR until things become more clear.

"Nope - that's the latest "talking point" from the Bluray camp."

So a microsoft site (backer of HD DVD) is using blu-ray's talking point? This is all very twisted I tell you. 18 months, I've heard that figure tossed around before ;)

Stalled? didn't they hear that the HTSA threw their support toward Blu-ray?

Not surprising at all considering that most of America is still running on SDTV. Given the recent delay to stop analog broadcast to 2012. This show just how un-ready the mass consumer is for the HDTV conversion. Without mass HDTV penetration. Neither format will make it it to the mass market stage.

Nope - that's the latest "talking point" from the Bluray camp.

Why would Microsoft (MSNBC) be spreading Blu-ray "talking points" as you mention? That doesn't seem to make sense.

Are you saying Microsoft is now in the Blu-ray camp?

~Josh

Actual report does not actually match the headline

Analyst sounds almost like a fan giving advice to the coach of his favorite team

Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder stood behind his company's view that Blu-ray would eventually win out over HD DVD, but he said the Blu-ray camp needs to cut prices.

A stand alone Blu-ray player sells for about $500, while HD DVD players cost about $400, and prices are expected to drop further as the holiday shopping season nearsOut of date information from the writer who is probably basing this off the information fed to him.

The HD A2 and HD A3 are MSRP $299 and the Venturer will be $199 MSRP, Street pricing below that.

Gownder said Blu-ray's content advantages are somewhat diminished since the recent decision by Viacom's Paramount studio to commit exclusively to HD DVD. HD DVD hardware prices have also dropped into consumers' preferred price range, he said.

"Weakened by these developments, Blu-ray needs to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007," he said in the report. "The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum."

Forrester said typical owners of high-definition televisions are not willing to pay more than $200 on average for a new HD DVD or Blu-ray player.

"Failure to alter strategy would open up Blu-ray to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD," Gownder said.

Seems he's just trying to defend their past assessments and is more being critical of Blu-ray's misplays than HD DVDs.

Considering that HD DVD will meet those price point this fall, means that the headline does not match the content of the article.

Seems like the headline editor did not realize that HD DVD will have lower prices going into the much higher volume holiday sales season.

Given the recent delay to stop analog broadcast to 2012.

More mis-information. From what I've read (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jNnK9pddWIKvk_h8drUQ0EyRpNjw) the FCC has told cable companies that they must provide analog cable for the local channels until 2012. The Feb 18, 2009 deadline for OTA analog broadcast is still set to happen on that day.

(I.e. cable customers will get a "free box" or the company will convert those few channels (6 or 7) to analog and send it out over the current lines)

This is what happens when there is no news regarding the format war . . .

They begin to manufacturer some.:(

New BD mantra/slogan . . .

"18 months . . . only 18 months."

More mis-information. From what I've read (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jNnK9pddWIKvk_h8drUQ0EyRpNjw) the FCC has told cable companies that they must provide analog cable for the local channels until 2012. The Feb 18, 2009 deadline for OTA analog broadcast is still set to happen on that day.

(I.e. cable customers will get a "free box" or the company will convert those few channels (6 or 7) to analog and send it out over the current lines)

Ok. Thanks for the correction. But it still doesn't change the fact that HDTV penetration is still fairly low in average American households.

Ok. Thanks for the correction. But it still doesn't change the fact that HDTV penetration is still fairly low in average American households.

1999 to 2007 = 36% of all USA Households and about 15% of all TV's have/are HDTV's (according to the CEA)

Forrester said typical owners of high-definition televisions are not willing to pay more than $200 on average for a new HD DVD or Blu-ray player.

"Failure to alter strategy would open up Blu-ray to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD," Gownder said.

You gotta admire the Carl Rove-ness of this: Blu-ray decided from Day One the strategy was to charge the highest possible price and reduce consumer choices to minimum in hardware and software options to support the highest prices for the longest period of time ... and, when the consumer revolted and said they wanted more for less, this is spun into "a possible upset defeat". :rolleyes:

Or how about this ...

Stalled? didn't they hear that the HTSA threw their support toward Blu-ray?

Trying to find solace in a self-serving organization also determined to charge the maximum about to anyone wanting home theatre pretending that Blu-ray delivers $1000s of dollars in added benefits over HD DVD ... because that's what the installer will recommend and get a fat commission on. Like there is any Blu-ray player worth $2k more than what the Toshiba HD-XA2 can deliver. It's more elitist smoke-and-mirrors ... and one more reason to watch your wallet, ask real questions, demand answers and make sure you can actually see the emperor's new clothes before paying for the extra wardrobe!

To my thinking both formats have been out long enough to attract the techies. The ones who simply want HD regardless of the content. Until you start to see same day HD releases for the majority of titles it is going to be a hard sell.

I still think content wins including rentals. You could give away the players and most of them would be collecting dust. I love HD but in almost every occasion I'll watch a new SD release in the den before lighting up the theater to see an old HD movie I never wanted to watch or an old HD movie I like but have already viewed.

If there were enough new movies being released I would even have an HD player in the den.

I still think content wins including rentals. You could give away the players and most of them would be collecting dust.

But both HD DVD and Blu-ray DO deliver content. And about equal amounts of recent blockbusters and medium term theatrical releases; HD DVD delivers more catalog titles as well (ie Casablanca, Forbidden Planet).

True, 500 HD titles do not equal 70,000 SD titles ... but that will come.

Sony and the Bluray camp NEED another year and a half, by many accounts, to get their product WORKING.
Please read this thread before making any more ridiculous statements again:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=907684&page=4

1999 to 2007 = 36% of all USA Households and about 15% of all TV's have/are HDTV's (according to the CEA)

Then why did another survey said that it will take another 3 years for HDTV to reach 75% of American household?

But both HD DVD and Blu-ray DO deliver content.That is open to debate. In most cases I can't watch new releases on either.

There is no content for either to go mainstream. Using computers as a bad example. People don't buy computers and then try to find software to run. Rather they want to use software and buy a computer accordingly.

Either side could easily win by doing same day releases across the board. Sure it would cost the studios increased future revenues. But when someone is deciding which format to buy if you show them that every one of this week's releases are available that is the one they will purchase. Regardless if the price is slightly higher or even if the image isn't quite as nice.

Mainstream is new releases and until they are available (at a decent price) you'll have a niche market at best.

Nope - that's the latest "talking point" from the Bluray camp.

Remember last week and the week before, they started saying that the format war would take 18 months more?

Now all their "research companies" that they are customers of are saying it too...

Sony and the Bluray camp NEED another year and a half, by many accounts, to get their product WORKING.

If HDM went mass market tomorrow, HD DVD could easily ramp up disc manufacturing, but Bluray would be hopelessly lost.

Blu Ray is NOT ready for mass market, and so they want to try to depress the WHOLE of the HDM market, and keep it "niche" - it's their only HOPE to buy time to try to come back and win later..

Blu Ray not ready for mass market? There have been 5 times more BR disks delivered than HD DVD discs. Remember PS3 games are on Blu Ray disks too. Yet, there is no substantiated information regarding an inability of BRD to fulfill market demand.

The fact is the format war has escalated, and like it or not, consumers are not buying, because of it. If you want to blame someone for that, blame Toshiba, they are the ones that turned up the heat.

Then why did another survey said that it will take another 3 years for HDTV to reach 75% of American household?

Last year we sold 13 million HDTV's. This year we are forecasted to sell 16 million HDTV's. Next year we are forcasted to sell 30 million HDTV's (they believe that some of the public will not understand the Analog to Digital transition and will go out and buy a new TV instead of the converter box.)

By 2011 we are supposed to be around 80% of the households. But that would only mean around 50+% of all TV's are HDTV's.

These numbers are coming from both the DEG and the CEA.

To my thinking both formats have been out long enough to attract the techies. The ones who simply want HD regardless of the content. Until you start to see same day HD releases for the majority of titles it is going to be a hard sell.

I still think content wins including rentals. You could give away the players and most of them would be collecting dust. I love HD but in almost every occasion I'll watch a new SD release in the den before lighting up the theater to see an old HD movie I never wanted to watch or an old HD movie I like but have already viewed.

If there were enough new movies being released I would even have an HD player in the den.

I agree not enough releases however you cut it. I see some titles I'll buy coming up but they need to do a lot better to get more people on board and to get folks like me to realy buy a lot. Lately, I've spent way more on old gangster and so bad the're good sci fi in SD.

Art

Why would Microsoft (MSNBC) be spreading Blu-ray "talking points" as you mention? That doesn't seem to make sense.

Are you saying Microsoft is now in the Blu-ray camp?

~Josh
The article is from Reuters, which, as far as I know, has no connection to Microsoft. In any case, the article is based on an interview with a pro-BD analyst but warns of a possible HD DVD upset.

Blu Ray not ready for mass market? There have been 5 times more BR disks delivered than HD DVD discs. Remember PS3 games are on Blu Ray disks too.

Well, that's a novel argument -- driving up the Blu-ray disk sales by counting PS2 games on Blu-ray discs for PS3 players and pretending, somehow, this beats the movies sold on HD DVD.

How can anyone credibly argue that "both formats have stalled" when each has sold more hardware in the last three months or so than since inception; and when titles like 300 came out and sold 250,000 copies in one week?!?

Hidef is a young, growing market: stalled, to me, is sales peaking at current levels which everyone agrees is not happening.

If in 18 months we STILL have two formats and studios arguing about which one is the "best" to support, mass adoption is all but dead...this will all end up a niche market just like laserdiscs and top end "hi-def" audio formats....

Well, that's a novel argument -- driving up the Blu-ray disk sales by counting PS2 games on Blu-ray discs for PS3 players and pretending, somehow, this beats the movies sold on HD DVD.

How can anyone credibly argue that "both formats have stalled" when each has sold more hardware in the last three months or so than since inception; and when titles like 300 came out and sold 250,000 copies in one week?!?

Hidef is a young, growing market: stalled, to me, is sales peaking at current levels which everyone agrees is not happening.

Haha..Blu-Ray people consider market stalled when Blu-Ray sales start dropping like we see and HD DVD sales start going up. Last couple of weeks HD DVD sales going up, lowering BD lead to 1.5:1 and narrowing doesn't seem like stalling to me? It's more like, consumers are picking the right format.

Sure it looks like stalling when people stop buying your format ha ha. For me, it seems that HD DVD is growing at a pretty healthy pace for a brand new technology. People are hesitant, prices were still high, but now it has come down to acceptable levels and people are buying. It's has been going up slowly but surely from inception.

Well, that's a novel argument -- driving up the Blu-ray disk sales by counting PS2 games on Blu-ray discs for PS3 players and pretending, somehow, this beats the movies sold on HD DVD.

How can anyone credibly argue that "both formats have stalled" when each has sold more hardware in the last three months or so than since inception; and when titles like 300 came out and sold 250,000 copies in one week?!?

Hidef is a young, growing market: stalled, to me, is sales peaking at current levels which everyone agrees is not happening.

How about a little reading comprehension! I didn't say anything about ps2, and I didn't pretend anything.

Fact is there have been 5X more blu ray disks delivered than HD DVD, because PS3 games, not just movies, are distributed on Blu Ray disks.

It is HD DVD that is unproven in terms of mass market production. Not saying they couldn't do it though.

Why would Microsoft (MSNBC) be spreading Blu-ray "talking points" as you mention? That doesn't seem to make sense.

Are you saying Microsoft is now in the Blu-ray camp?

~Josh

Believe it or not, we are not China or Russia or Iran yet.

Lots of news organizations run news stories all across the spectrum (admittedly, not Fox).

I doubt many at the top of MSNBC even know about MS's involvement with HD DVD.

You want to know what has stalled? DVD. The sales are down. This will be the 3rd year in a row with no growth.

HDM is growing albiet slowly - as it was predicted because of the evolutionary nature of the formats.

1999 to 2007 = 36% of all USA Households and about 15% of all TV's have/are HDTV's (according to the CEA)

People are only buying HDTVs because:

There is not an SD in the size they want.
SD is not offered in the shape they want (flat pannels).
HDTVs are the same price as the SD ones.

Basically it is being forced on them (which isn't a bad thing).

HDM will be the same way.

People are only buying HDTVs because:

There is not an SD in the size they want.
SD is not offered in the shape they want (flat pannels).
HDTVs are the same price as the SD ones.

Basically it is being forced on them (which isn't a bad thing).

HDM will be the same way.

Not until they stop making DVD players and only make HDM players - the same thing that has happened to TV's and THAT is a looooong ways off.

Not until they stop making DVD players and only make HDM players - the same thing that has happened to TV's and THAT is a looooong ways off.

I agree. Maybe they can start with just making combos and TL discs instead of SD ones!:D

I agree. Maybe they can start with just making combos and TL discs instead of SD ones!:D

That will DEFINITELY be the first step.:D

Why would Microsoft (MSNBC) be spreading Blu-ray "talking points" as you mention? That doesn't seem to make sense.

Probably for the same reasons you can see blu-ray advertisements on Universal-owned NBC... because the world isn't as black-and-white as it is here on AVS.

If you seriously think that Microsoft would have its news organization squash a tiny Reuters news report that is vaguely positive about a competitor... well, if so, you have a very childlike view of the world.

I doubt many at the top of MSNBC even know about MS's involvement with HD DVD.

It wouldn't matter, Microsoft is no longer involved with MSNBC. They sold their stake in that network.