The Wall Street Journal has a feature article on the format war in todays print edition.

Top of the fold , featured story in the Personal Journal Section D1


Image of the graphic showing cute little HD DVD an Blu-ray disc figures having a stalemated tug of war

http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=wsjcutediscsts3.jpg

looking for online version now. Found it complete article is at link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119068245313038190.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj



Blu-ray or HD DVD:Which Side Are You On?

Consumers Hesitate to Choose A High-Definition Format;
'Batman' Plays It Both Ways

By SARAH MCBRIDE
September 25, 2007

...One contender, HD DVD, has taken the lead on the hardware side, with about 58% of sales, according to Adams Media Research. HD DVD is moving ahead in that department because players in that format are cheaper. At least two HD DVD players are available for less than $300, and by the holidays there should be an offering at around $199, many movie-studio executives believe. By contrast, Blu-ray players start at $449.

...Yet Blu-ray has taken a big lead in sales of movie titles. Blu-ray discs are outselling HD DVDs by about 2-to-1 this year. That's in part because so many people who bought Sony's PlayStation 3 game console, which also plays Blu-ray discs, have bought some high-definition movies. Plus, supporters of the Blu-ray technology have had an edge so far in brokering deals with movie studios for exclusive distribution of titles.

The upshot: Both formats remain viable. And even though consumers can get free movies when they purchase a player, millions of people are sitting on the sidelines, their wallets untouched.

...Compare the situation to regular DVDs, which were launched 10 years ago, in March 1997. That calendar year, consumers bought 350,000 DVD players, according to the Consumer Electronics Association. But while high-definition players of both formats have been available since the middle of last year, only about 300,000 have been sold,
according to Adams Media Research.

Gaming devices that play one format or the other add about 1.6 million to the tally, mostly Blu-ray, but not everyone uses gaming devices for movies.

...The growing popularity of big-screen, high-definition TV sets -- which can play either format, depending on the player you buy to go with it -- suggests that consumers are eager to watch cutting-edge, super-crisp movies. And hardware prices for both HD DVD and Blu-ray players are dropping. But the battle over availability of titles is further muddying the picture.

Until just a few weeks ago, it was looking like Blu-ray could take a decisive lead.

...But last month, after offering huge financial incentives like marketing support and cash payments, the HD DVD camp got Paramount and DreamWorks Animation SKG to agree to publish high-definition versions of their titles on HD DVD only. ...

The latest deals were key for HD DVD, says Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research. "Generally, Paramount and DreamWorks [Animation] are moving toward bigger market share than they've had in the past," he says. "Their move has more long-term significance" than it would have even a couple of years ago.

...The respective studios that have signed on exclusively to one format or the other are putting some of their own marketing heft into the battle. Anyone buying a player can expect free DVDs with their purchase; most Toshiba players, for example, come with two free HD DVDs in the box and coupons for five more. Sony players come with coupons for five free Blu-ray movies. Expect such promotions to ramp up as the holiday season gets into high gear.]....

Seems like a pretty accurate article to me (for the mainstream press anyway).

Interesting that she said: after offering huge financial incentives like marketing support and cash payments, the HD DVD camp got Paramount and DreamWorks Animation SKG to agree to publish high-definition versions of their titles on HD DVD only
That's been reported repeatedly in the press but continues to be disputed by many in this forum.

No, what's disputed is that Microsoft made those cash payments as Bill (the shill) Hunt and so many others have suggested.

We also don't know the break down of incentives, and at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. It's common knowledge that both sides offer incentives, disc replication subsidies, promotional consideration, etc, for studios at this point in time.

I continue to find it ludicrous that BD fans still insist that Paramount/DW dropped BD for a measly $150M in incentives... especially considering that there are billions to be made should one of these formats take off into mainstream consumerism.

The WSJ was the one mainstream source for that comment and they used the same sourcing as the original Hollywood Reporter gossip columnist blogger that first broke the story

Toshiba IIRC has acknowldged that some promotional considerations were given

Seems like a pretty accurate article to me (for the mainstream press anyway).

Interesting that she said:
That's been reported repeatedly in the press but continues to be disputed by many in this forum.

A Toshiba Exec confirmed it as well, he only disputed that it wasn't exactly 150 million so it could be more or less.

HD DVD, has taken the lead on the hardware side, with about 58% of sales, I personally liked the current 58:40:2 (HD : BD : Dual) hardware split comment. (assuming dual format are a couple %)

HD leading hardware, Blu-ray leading accumulated software sales by the same amount. Except that hardware sales are the gift that keeps on giving by growing the installed base.

That hardware gap may grow as the year goes on if HD DVD continues to have lower priced players and will sooner or later positively affect software sales.

Fairly general and accurate snapshot of the current state of the Hi Def market.

Makes you wonder about J6P and them PS3s ;)

Further proof to me that neither format will sell very many players this holiday season as long as we have a format war within a very niche space.

I think that HD DVD will sell huge numbers of players this fall.

Now that consumers realize that HD DVD is not going to be wiped out, and they see the players at $200, they will not hesitate to buy into HD DVD.

It's gonna be a great holiday shopping season...

I think that HD DVD will sell huge numbers of players this fall.

Could you further specify "fall" and "huge numbers"?

Looking at the actual hard copy edition, theres a cute little graphic of two disc like figures labeled Blu-ray and HD DVD playing a tug of war game dead even.

Overall impression is that that the format war is now tied or dead even and that no side is winning.

Pretty prominent graphic and it sets the tone for the article.

Bit of a change from the earlier media meme that Blu-ray was clearly winning the war because of the software sales disparity.

A shift in the conventional wisdom might be to HD DVDs advantage.

I thought it was pretty good article too.

Could you further specify "fall" and "huge numbers"?
Fall would probably mean by the end of the year in this case.

Huge would be double HD DVD sales for standalone players for the first three quarters.

Those would be my definitions.

Looking at the actual hard copy edition, theres a cute little graphic of two disc like figures labeled Blu-ray and HD DVD playing a tug of war game dead even.

Overall impression is that that the format war is now tied or dead even and that no side is winning.

Pretty prominent graphic and it sets the tone for the article.

Bit of a change from the earlier media meme that Blu-ray was clearly winning the war because of the software sales disparity.

A shift in the conventional wisdom might be to HD DVDs advantage.

I thought it was pretty good article too.


Actually even declaring that HD DVD is "even" with BD is a huge take away for HD DVD going into this holiday season.

Many consumers who have held off for fear that HD DVD was "dead" might be more inclined to buy that low price HD DVD player this fall now that it's got a real chance of sticking around for a while.

As far as "big numbers" go, I wouldn't be surprised to see more players sell in Q4 than sold in Q1-Q3 combined.

Could you further specify "fall" and "huge numbers"?

Between Oct. 1st, 2007 and Jan. 1st, 2008 417,352 HD DVD standalone players will be sold. 157,235 HD DVD X-Box add-ons will be sold. 767,318 HD DVD enabled laptops/PC's will be sold.

That's all my crystal ball can do ....

The pitch they sould be doing is "You have an HDTV now you need HD DVD" .... "blu-ray TV's do not exist yet and are more expensive ..."

http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=wsjcutediscsts3.jpg

This holiday season..it's time for the KNOCKOUT!

http://www.designbyinfinity.com/internet/hddvdcounter.png

I personally liked the current 58:40:2 (HD : BD : Dual) hardware split comment. (assuming dual format are a couple %)Except that it isn't true and you know it isn't true. The XBOX360 add-on and PS3s are both hardware and I doubt even you would dispute that. The comment looks like it would only be true if they had said standalone players or used a similar term.

I hope that you won't start using "hardware" to exclude the PS3 or XBOX360 add-on just because the Wall Street Journal did. If you want to make a claim about standalone players, please use the term standalone players or something that is true, unlike "hardware". That is just a misleading way to exclude hardware that people use to watch these movies from HD DVD or Blu-ray.

--Darin

One contender, HD DVD, has taken the lead on the hardware side, with about 58% of sales, according to Adams Media Research. HD DVD is moving ahead in that department because players in that format are cheaper. At least two HD DVD players are available for less than $300, and by the holidays there should be an offering at around $199, many movie-studio executives believe. By contrast, Blu-ray players start at $449. When you read the entire article you can see that the 58% HD DVD market share is clearly meant in the context of dedicated standalone set-top hardware players , not including the PS3 or the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive.

I only used the same term as the article did when I referenced the quote from the article.

When I don't have the context of an article to cite, I'm normally pretty careful to mention standalone players when I mean that. If you read the entire article or even the excepts I posted, its pretty darn clear the writer isn't including PS3s in that figure.



Except that it isn't true and you know it isn't true. The XBOX360 add-on and PS3s are both hardware and I doubt even you would dispute that. The comment looks like it would only be true if they had said standalone players or used a similar term
A bit touchy there , are we?

Unless you think that the SI NPD number that the WSJ used for standalone players is off significantly.

A bit touchy there , are we?


:D

When you read the entire article you can see that the 58% HD DVD market share is clearly meant in the context of dedicated standalone set-top hardware players , not including the PS3 or the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive.

I only used the same term as the article did when I referenced the quote from the article.

When I don't have the context of an article to cite, I'm normally pretty careful to mention standalone players when I mean that. If you read the entire article or even the excepts I posted, its pretty darn clear the writer isn't including PS3s in that figure.


A bit touchy there , are we?

Unless you think that the SI NPD number that the WSJ used for standalone players is off significantly.

When WSJ says Paramount/DW were paid off it's gospel... when they site HD DVD ahead in standaloens it must be questioned.

Where have you been Kosty? :p

A bit touchy there , are we?

Unless you think that the SI NPD number that the WSJ used for standalone players is off significantly.Come on Kosty. You know better. The NPD number doesn't tell you that HD is leading hardware and you know that in your comment here:
HD leading hardware Blu-ray leading accumulated software sales by the same amount. Except that hardware sales are the gift that keeps on giving by growing the installed base.all hardware is the gift that keeps on giving, but it was convenient for you to use the same "hardware" as the article. Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not.

You and I both know that the NPD number doesn't have to be off for the HD leading hardware ...to be misleading. You have claimed that HD DVD has better attach rate, but here you claim it leads hardware, and you also acknowledge that it trails in software sales. You can't have it all unless you pick a very misleading path. And yes, I know the context of the article and people paying attention could figure out that they conveniently don't count some hardware that people use to watch these movies as hardware.

I can understand why some HD DVD fans would be happy to see them claiming that HD DVD leads for hardware though. Just a small jump from something true to something not true.
... when they site HD DVD ahead in standaloens it must be questioned.Not sure if you had trouble comprehending it, but I don't question that HD DVD leads in standalones and you used the correct term there IMO. Claiming they lead for hardware is a different thing. Especially somebody who says they lead for attach rates, which they couldn't do if they lead in hardware and trail in software.

--Darin

The NPD numbers I have seen certainly say that HD DVD is leading by about that margin in since inception standalone hardware sales. about a 60:40 lead over Blu-ray standalones.

Those figures of course do not include the PS3 and for NPD sources cited here, probably not the Xbox 360 HD DVD drives.

If you want to add in the PS3 and say Blu-ray leads in hardware, be happy too. But that was not how the article stated it in that paragraph.

But then if you do, can I remind you of the terrible PS3 attach rates again? :D


I don't understand who you are so upset. Read the entire article again, it clearly meant set-top standalone dedicated players. So did I, by assumption, when I quoted it.

What is the issue?

Don't you think the dedicated player numbers show HD DVD with 58% share from the format were launched ?

Why are you so silly upset?

Are you upset with me or the article?

meh :rolleyes:

Not sure if you had trouble comprehending it, but I don't question that HD DVD leads in standalones and you used the correct term there IMO. Claiming they lead for hardware is a different thing. Especially somebody who says they lead for attach rates, which they couldn't do if they lead in hardware and trail in software. I just used the same term the article did, in the specific limited context of me quoting it.

Not sure why you are so riled up over it. Seems a silly reason to have an argument.

Sorry you took offense.

.

I just read the entire article and, I must say, it's one of the most precise reports on the format war I've read. Interesting that the reporter even went so far as to peer into exclusives for next year, mentioning The Mummy 3 and Incredible Hulk as hot HD DVD titles next year. I was surprised she didn't mention Iron Man from Paramount, but I'm still pretty impressed with the article.

The NPD numbers I have seen certainly say that HD DVD is leading by about that margin in since inception standalone hardware sales. about a 60:40 lead over Blu-ray standalones.

Those figures of course do not include the PS3 and for NPD sources cited here, probably not the Xbox 360 HD DVD drives.

If you want to add in the PS3 and say Blu-ray leads in hardware, be happy too. But that was not how the article stated it in that paragraph.

But then if you do, can I remind you of the terrible PS3 attach rates again? :D


I don't understand who you are so upset. Read the entire article again, it clearly meant set-top standalone dedicated players. So did I, by assumption, when I quoted it.

What is the issue?

Don't you think the dedicated player numbers show HD DVD with 58% share from the format were launched ?

Why are you so silly upset?

Are you upset with me or the article?

meh :rolleyes:

I think what he's upset with are blu-ray's prospects of winning a quick victory.

I just read the entire article and, I must say, it's one of the most precise reports on the format war I've read. Interesting that the reporter even went so far as to peer into exclusives for next year, mentioning The Mummy 3 and Incredible Hulk as hot HD DVD titles next year. I was surprised she didn't mention Iron Man from Paramount, but I'm still pretty impressed with the article.

Amusingly, it seems to me that it's the financial/business journals that seem to get the lay of the land more accurately pegged than the more myopic and biased tech-publications.

I think people sometimes forget this about money, more than shoulds and woulds.

after offering huge financial incentives like marketing support and cash payments, the HD DVD camp got Paramount and DreamWorks Animation SKG to agree to publish high-definition versions of their titles on HD DVD only

Seems like a pretty accurate article to me (for the mainstream press anyway).

Interesting that she said:
That's been reported repeatedly in the press but continues to be disputed by many in this forum....but not denied by Paramount.:):):)

I just don't understand why Blu-ray supporters get upset for analysts comparing standalone sales.

No matter how much you WANT PS3 to be counted it's a new product, it's not a sole hi-def player as it's primary purpose IS gaming.

For a format war it's quite obviously normal to count standalones for real comparison


and then if you want to compare other stuff you compare:

hd dvd computer drives vs blu-ray computer drives
PS3s against XBox 360s with equiped HD DVD drives
laptops with HD DVD drives vs laptops with Blu-Ray drives

Simple... no fuss no muss..

Blu-Ray people have the need to mix everything together so it shows dominance in paper statistics.

You should compare apples and apples right Darin?

Exactly.

Amusingly, it seems to me that it's the financial/business journals that seem to get the lay of the land more accurately pegged than the more myopic and biased tech-publications.

I think people sometimes forget this about money, more than shoulds and woulds.

http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/techview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9689600&fsrc=nwl

Like The Economist article after the Paramount/Dreamworks decision

The Economist sees red in the water

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From The Economist.


Quote:
Blockbuster, the world’s largest video-rental chain, announced that, in future, it would stock only Blu-ray discs in its 1,450 local branches. After all, two out of three customers had been renting Blu-ray titles. Henceforth, HD DVD versions would be available only at Blockbuster’s 250 main stores and through its online service.

Many considered the announcement decisive. In the 1980s, when the video war raged over two rival video-cassette standards, the decision by America’s video-rental chains to stock only one format tipped the balance in favour of Matsushita’s cheaper and longer-recording VHS standard. Within a few years, Sony’s Betamax had disappeared from the shelves. Quote:
Then came last Monday’s announcement by two of Hollywood’s more thoughtful studios, DreamWorks Animation and Paramount Pictures. Both have decided to ditch the Blu-ray standard from the Sony camp and release all their future high-definition titles solely in the HD DVD format from the Toshiba alliance. Until then, Universal Studios had been the only one releasing movies in HD DVD exclusively.

The defection certainly levels the playing field in terms of titles released exclusively in one format or the other.
Quote:
HD DVD is a cheaper system all around. Unlike Blu-ray, which has a much shallower (and therefore a more delicate) data layer, an HD DVD has its digital information etched deeper beneath the surface just like a conventional DVD—and can therefore be stamped out on much the same sort of equipment as a DVD. That translates into a larger profit margin for the studios.
Meanwhile, because of the robustness of the disc, HD DVD players have proved to be much cheaper to build. Models now start at $299, and are expected to fall to $199 by the coming holiday season. By contrast, basic Blu-ray players start at $449.
Quote:
Why, then, have Blu-ray discs lately been outselling HD DVD versions by two to one? Because Sony cannily included a Blu-ray player in its latest video-game console, PlayStation 3. And while PS3 has not met expectations of selling 6m consoles in America, some 1.4m have nevertheless been snapped up since their launch last November. Market researchers reckon that most—90% by some reckoning—of Blu-ray discs are played on PS3 consoles. But Hollywood’s studios now realise they can’t pin the future of their precious video sales (today one of their main sources of revenue) on a game console that has failed to ignite widespread interest outside a dedicated circle of hard-core gamers. Quote:
Engineers who’ve worked with both formats say Blu-ray is a pig to program. While extremely flexible, its programming language, BD-Java, requires lots of low-level code for even the simplest of instructions. The highly skilled programmers needed to do the job don’t exactly grow on trees. And because of the program’s complexity, even the best produce their share of bug-ridden software.

By comparison, writing software for HD DVD using Microsoft’s HDi interactive technology is a doddle—with one simple command doing the task of scores of lines of BD-Java. More importantly, HDi is the key to HD DVD’s better navigation around menus, and its instinctive ability to interact with the outside world.

Quote:
DreamWorks, Paramount and Universal are betting that HD DVD’s powerful tools for interactivity will let them make a tonne of money out of selling all manner of online services to customers who buy their discs. That’s why, ultimately, Toshiba’s David could yet topple Sony’s Goliath in the current video wars.


discussed here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=896814

I just don't understand why Blu-ray supporters get upset for analysts comparing standalone sales.

No matter how much you WANT PS3 to be counted it's a new product, it's not a sole hi-def player as it's primary purpose IS gaming.

For a format war it's quite obviously normal to count standalones for real comparison


and then if you want to compare other stuff you compare:

hd dvd computer drives vs blu-ray computer drives
PS3s against XBox 360s with equiped HD DVD drives
laptops with HD DVD drives vs laptops with Blu-Ray drives

Simple... no fuss no muss..

Blu-Ray people have the need to mix everything together so it shows dominance in paper statistics.

You should compare apples and apples right Darin?

I thought having two accounts was against TOS:confused:
Is there a point to posting the exact same thing with two different accounts?

I just don't understand why Blu-ray supporters get upset for analysts
comparing standalone sales.

No matter how much you WANT PS3 to be counted it's a new product, it's
not a sole hi-def player as it's primary purpose IS gaming.

For a format war it's quite obviously normal to count standalones for
real comparison


and then if you want to compare other stuff you compare:

hd dvd computer drives vs blu-ray computer drives
PS3s against XBox 360s with equiped HD DVD drives
laptops with HD DVD drives vs laptops with Blu-Ray drives

Simple... no fuss no muss..

Blu-Ray people have the need to mix everything together so it shows
dominance in paper statistics.

Don't you think that's fair Darin?

You should compare apples and apples right Darin?

HD-DVD supporters are optimistic to a fault. I can't think of anyone else I'd rather have around should I ever be diagnosed with a terminal disease...aside from family and friends.

But then if you do, can I remind you of the terrible PS3 attach rates again? :DWe can discuss PS3 attach rates (hopeful not in the idiotic way some people like to though), but if you thought attach rates in the range it looks like they have been providing in the US were going to be terrible, why didn't you say something back before we got any numbers for it and I said that I thought a 20% effective rate would have a big impact? Seems like some people wanted to wait until after attach rates were in a range that make sense and then claim they are terrible or bad for a device like that. But that is somewhat of a side track from this.
What is the issue?Please tell me. Would you have said:
HD leading standalone hardware, Blu-ray leading accumulated software sales by the same amount. Except that standalone hardware sales are the gift that keeps on giving by growing the installed base.Using a word in one sentence with one meaning and in the next sentence with another meaning is one thing that can be deceptive. I already asked this once, but didn't get an answer:
Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not.Not saying you did it on purpose, but it looks like you used their use of just "hardware" instead of "standalone hardware" to make it look like HD DVD led in the category of things that are gifts that keep on giving, when all hardware does. Including non-standalone hardware that people buy and rent movies for.
You should compare apples and apples right Darin?This doesn't seem that complicated to me, so not sure why some people here seem to be having a problem understanding it. If you actually compare apples to apples but claim that you are comparing fruit to fruit and somebody uses that to exclude oranges while making it look like they are including all fruit, that is misleading. If Kosty wants to claim that standalone players keep on giving but non-standalone players don't then we can discuss that, but I doubt he would do that.
Blu-Ray people have the need to mix everything together so it shows dominance in paper statistics.I have no problem discussing standalones vs standalones, all players vs all players, or effective players vs effective players. There are a lot of HD DVD people who like to mix all hardware together in order to end up with higher attach rates for HD DVD, so unless you disagree with doing that in order to push the higher attach rates of HD DVD, I would say that you believe in mixing them altogether also. Do you disagree with those who claim higher attach rates for HD DVD by mixing all the players together?

--Darin

I thought having two accounts was against TOS:confused:
Is there a point to posting the exact same thing with two different accounts?

Do you have something smarter to do?

I had an account so I could PM some people if I get banned..so I accidentally logged in with it when I posted.. I deleted my post within like 2 minutes and posted with my normal account..

What seems to be your problem? You need to grow up.

This doesn't seem that complicated to me, so not sure why some people here seem to be having a problem understanding it. If you actually compare apples to apples but claim that you are comparing fruit to fruit and somebody uses that to exclude oranges while making it look like they are including all fruit, that is misleading. If Kosty wants to claim that standalone players keep on giving but non-standalone players don't then we can discuss that, but I doubt he would do that.

--Darin

No my comparison is completely valid. Blu-Ray Group introduced the confusion by counting PS3s as standalone players know very well this would show Blu-ray dominance. It is invalid to count GAMING units that people buy mostly for that purpose as standalone Blu-Ray players. Studies have shown this quite clearly.

Nobody is saying that there aren't more Blu-Ray playback CAPABLE players out there. But when you talk about mass adoptation and regular consumers we are talking about standalone units, simple as that and there's nothing wrong in presenting information based on that.

If they included XBox 360 / HD DVD add-on drives and not include PS3s then that would be unfair and misleading, but what they have done is shown absolutely correct numbers.

It is invalid to count GAMING units that people buy mostly for that purpose as standalone Blu-Ray players.I don't count them as standalone players, but they are clearly players and clearly hardware that is relevant to software sales.
Nobody is saying that there aren't more Blu-Ray playback CAPABLE players out there. But when you talk about mass adoptation and regular consumers we are talking about standalone units, simple as that and there's nothing wrong in presenting information based on that."Hardware" includes more than standalones. I consider this a test of your integrity. Does "hardware" include PS3s and XBOX360 add-ons as anything? If so, why do you keep using the word "standalone" if hardware is already only standalones (unless you are calculating attach rates :))?
If they included XBox 360 / HD DVD add-on drives and not include PS3s then that would be unfair and misleading, but what they have done is shown absolutely correct numbers.So, who leads for hardware and who leads for attach rate according to your rules? Feel free to show some numbers that you think don't show you to be a hypocrite if you want to claim that HD DVD leads both categories, but doesn't lead for software sales.

--Darin

HD DVD, has taken the lead on the hardware side, with about 58% of sales,

Come on Kosty. You know better. The NPD number doesn't tell you that HD is leading hardware and you know that in your comment here:

all hardware is the gift that keeps on giving, but it was convenient for you to use the same "hardware" as the article. Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not.

You and I both know that the NPD number doesn't have to be off for the to be misleading. You have claimed that HD DVD has better attach rate, but here you claim it leads hardware, and you also acknowledge that it trails in software sales. You can't have it all unless you pick a very misleading path. And yes, I know the context of the article and people paying attention could figure out that they conveniently don't count some hardware that people use to watch these movies as hardware.

I can understand why some HD DVD fans would be happy to see them claiming that HD DVD leads for hardware though. Just a small jump from something true to something not true.

Not sure if you had trouble comprehending it, but I don't question that HD DVD leads in standalones and you used the correct term there IMO. Claiming they lead for hardware is a different thing. Especially somebody who says they lead for attach rates, which they couldn't do if they lead in hardware and trail in software.

--Darin Just trying to understand the anger and emotion here.

Your comments don't make a lot of sense to me, nor the emotion involved.

Let's see if I understand you, and lets see if I can allay your fears a bit.

I guess you are trying to say that I might in the future start to use the term "hardware " like the article mentioned as a substitute for the phrase I usually use which is 'standalone players' or dedicated players.

I've recently started to say dedicated players as I think that 's more descriptive, or I may also use the industry standard term common in CE reports which is set-top units.

Far as I know, this thread is one of the few times I ever used "hardware" in the context of those set-top standalone dedicated players, and I'll probably use dedicated players in the future to describe those units, not just using the term hardware.

I agree with you that the term "hardware" would normally imply all available hardware sockets, which to me normally would mean the PS3 and the Xbox 360 HD DVD drives, as well as any PC laptops with HD optical drives in them.

What's the issue here that got you so upset? Its like you are implying that I trying to sneak something in here or deny that PS3 are buying lots of Blu-ray discs...

I mean , for pity sake, I just used the term, the way the article used in it in context. That should have been obvious to anyone who read the article.

Sorry it bothered you. :)

Does "hardware" include PS3s and XBOX360 add-ons as anything? If so, why do you keep using the word "standalone" if hardware is already only standalones (unless you are calculating attach rates :))?
So, who leads for hardware and who leads for attach rate according to your rules?
--Darin

Yes, hardware does include PS3s and XBox add-ons...HOWEVER for format adoptation these are not so much important as standalone units.

If you look at the numbers of DVD technology I believe there's about 500 or 700 million DVD players sold worldwide to date and these DO NOT include gaming consoles as DVD players even though they are capable devices.

So it is normal to not count these when you are looking at adoptation of one format no matter how bad you want to showcase Blu-Ray as dominating. Gamer crowd is simply the first one to go buy stuff, and this was clearly why Blu-Ray has propelled ahead this whole year as you had a bunch of gamers who couldn't wait for PS3. Hell I bought it too as soon as it came out. Sure, some percentage of people bought it as Blu-Ray players but this is really very small number, as we said possibly in the range of around 13% or so of all PS3s sold.

Attach ratio is different as you are clearly in the need of counting EVERYONE who might be buying MOVIES. So in that regard, yes you do count PS3s as well as Xbox 360s.

I'm beginning to think that the PS3 swamps the BD side so much that attach rates can't be differentiated on that side. BD disk sales will be driven by PS3 sales until there are whole bunch of low cost BD players sold.

...I don't understand why you won't answer:
Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not.but keep asking me to explain. Why not answer that question? Was you claim meant to mean that HD DVD leads in the category of things that keep on giving?

--Darin

HD-DVD supporters are optimistic to a fault. I can't think of anyone else I'd rather have around should I ever be diagnosed with a terminal disease...aside from family and friends.

I think either side tends to veer from optimism to realism as different aspects of this thing unfold. Yet, BD supporters also go into a more severe state of shock and disbelief when some a decision falls in HD DVDs favor.

I think either side tends to veer from optimism to realism as different aspects of this thing unfold. Yet, BD supporters also go into a more severe state of shock and disbelief when some a decision falls in HD DVDs favor.

Well would you think it would be any different? Facing that their $600 or more investement might become useless. I'm betting that someone who paid $200-$250 for a player cares less about the loss of HD DVD then Blu-Ray person does for their format.

I own a PS3.

I have rented over 20 Blu-ray discs at blockbuster.

I own over 70 Blu-ray discs.

I own zero PS3 games. I have never played any game on my PS3.

If the PS3 was not out I would 100% own a standalone blu-ray player.

There are enough people EXACTLY like me that if you only counted the PS3's being used in this way, Blu-ray has the lead in machines that are actively used as movie players.

All of you HD DVD fans can play with semantics all you want, but the FACT is that there are more machines being used as Blu-ray players. The fact that many PS3's are not used as Blu-ray players does not change this fact.

The software lead for Blu-ray is not from a few PS3 owners buying a few movies, it is because there are more movie fans with Blu-ray players than HD DVD players.

The simple fact is that a slow down in HD sales benefits HD DVD. BD really needed a quick strike, resounding win, and it didn't happen. At this point, I believe BD will become a Sony only format, or both formats will pretty much be LD (which is where I am leaning presently). I'm also the guy that been saying that the average consumer doesn't care about AQ and that if it's video on a shiney silver disc, it's a DVD. So, feel free to ignore me. :p

I've recently started to say dedicated players as I think that 's more descriptive, or I may also use the industry standard term common in CE reports which is set-top units.

Far as I know, this thread is one of the few times I ever used "hardware" in the context of those set-top standalone dedicated players, and I'll probably use dedicated players in the future to describe those units, not just using the term hardware.

Sorry it bothered you. :)

Along those lines and talking whether or not to count PS3's and Xbox 360 add-ons...if you pick the term "dedicated" than the add-on could be counted and the PS3 could not be counted.

how many threads have discussed the difference between hardware, standalone, dedicated, set top box, etc....

I own a PS3.

I have rented over 20 Blu-ray discs at blockbuster.

I own over 70 Blu-ray discs.

I own zero PS3 games. I have never played any game on my PS3.

If the PS3 was not out I would 100% own a standalone blu-ray player.

There are enough people EXACTLY like me that if you only counted the PS3's being used in this way, Blu-ray has the lead in machines that are actively used as movie players.

All of you HD DVD fans can play with semantics all you want, but the FACT is that there are more machines being used as Blu-ray players. The fact that many PS3's are not used as Blu-ray players does not change this fact.

The software lead for Blu-ray is not from a few PS3 owners buying a few movies, it is because there are more movie fans with Blu-ray players than HD DVD players.

Welcome to the unquantifiable. :p

Fact is far more blu-ray players have been sold than HD DVD players. Far more movies have been sold on blu-ray than on HD DVD.

Fact is far more blu-ray players have been sold than HD DVD players. Far more movies have been sold on blu-ray than on HD DVD.
You're half right. There have been many more BD capable players sold.

You're half right. There have been many more BD capable players sold.

Which half do you believe is wrong?

Which half do you believe is wrong?

Maybe you should start reading what you quote...

Maybe you should start reading what you quote...

Perhaps you should take that advice. What I said was factual.

You're half right. There have been many more BD capable players sold.

Exactly..

As for software lead..someone was right..retailers are doing a piss poor job and are actually sabotaging HD DVD side. Not updating HD DVD movies at Best Buy with new releases or begin very slow at it, having dramatically less available titles at retail for HD DVD shows retailer rebellion against HD DVD.

Why you ask? Well it's not because Blu-Ray are selling more (the amount of both being sold is miserable) so this really doesn't affect their bottom line even if they offered both to the full capacity. The reason why we see Blu-Ray advantage the most is because retailers and most CE companies support Blu-Ray as they see it as cash cow. Meaning it allows them to make more money of off consumers. This is completely understandble when you look at their motives, but is completely unacceptable if we look at it as consumers.

So, we have a better mass capable product with same quality as Blu-Ray with only somewhat higher bit rates and size that BD offers that don't really translate to any benefit for 99% of consumers nor it will in the long run because studios' business models anyways, with prices at $200 but consumers are forced to pick by retailers and CE comapnies, a more expensive players that we will need to replace if we want new features only several months from now.

It boggles my mind that anyone would want to support something like that, unless you really have money to waste (are so passionate about perfect sound and picture that $100k home entertainment systems are just a drop in the bucket for you) or are a complete numbnut.

I don't understand why you won't answer:
but keep asking me to explain. Why not answer that question? Was you claim meant to mean that HD DVD leads in the category of things that keep on giving?

--Darin Let me try to make it as complete an explanation as I can for you.

When I say that "hardware sales are the gift that keeps on giving" I mean that in the way that I think most most people here familiar with the issues would, that increasing hardware sales and the accumulating increasing size of the dedicated player installed base' has significant long term impact because a single hardware sale pretty much locks most owners into a single format and that new owner will buy a lot of software units in the future.

That is why I think that dedicated hardware player purchases mean a lot more at this stage of the game, than software units sold.

That is why I also see HD DVD as having a significant advantage going into the high volume hardware sales period in the last three months of the year.

I also believe, and have been told, that has been the HD DVD strategy all along, to ignore the BDA PR blitz and the software sales numbers all year because they do not mean much in the long term, or not as much as getting the installed base of dedicated players to grow.

HD DVD will have the advantage as not only have saved advertising and marketing and promotional money to concentrate on this upcoming high volume period, the dedicated players will probably be much cheaper than the dedicated Blu-ray players.

The PS3 just has not sold as many software units per hardware socket as those dedicated standalone Blu-ray or HD DVD players

Most PS3 owners are not buying any Blu-ray discs.

Even now, the great mass of PS3 owners is buying less than 1 movie per hardware socket.

In the future, new PS3 buyers will not include the group of initial PS3 owners that bought the PS3 as a proxy dedicated Blu-ray movie player.

So although the PS3 has dominated the low volume software race so far, I think that the PS3 will be less and less a factor than future dedicated player sales.

The PS3 chance to kill off HD DVD has failed.

And the PS3 ain't exactly doing gangbusters in its primary gaming console battle against the Xbox 360 and the Wii.

Now its more and more a race between dedicated standalone set-top hardware units and lower prices will be a significant factor in that race.

In short, I recognize that the PS3 gives available hardware sockets that can be used to play Blu-ray discs, but the fact remains most of those sockets remain dormant.

Whether or not you can accept it, its likely now, that even with a lot more PS3s sold, it impact on the format war will probably be less and less as time goes on and more dedicated units are sold, on both sides.

Clinging to a head count of PS3 Blu-ray capable drives as a decisive Blu-ray advantage is living in the past, and is as likely to be as relevant in the future as the historical 1Q 2007 software sales numbers that continue to inflate the SI and 2007 YTD software sales numbers.

The next critical phase of this format war is in standalone set-top dedicated hardware sales where:....

Originally Posted by The Wall Street Journal
HD DVD, has taken the lead on the hardware side, with about 58% of sales,... and HD DVD has an advantage in the high volume holiday sales season because it has lower prices that are reaching mass consumer adoption price points.

Originally Posted by darinp2
Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not. So with the above explanation I can answer your question and go back to watching HD movies on my HD TV with my HD DVD standalone set-top dedicated hardware Toshiba second generation HD XA2 firmware rev 2.5 player tonight, ...

Yes. I think that both standalone and non-standalone hardware sales are gifts that keep on giving, but I think that dedicated standalone set-top hardware units will keep on giving for a longer period of time a lot more software as gifts in the future.

Happy now?

Fact is far more blu-ray players have been sold than HD DVD players. Far more movies have been sold on blu-ray than on HD DVD.

I wouldn't call a mere 700,000 discs "far more movies", especially considering all the advantages Blu-Ray has enjoyed during the first half of 2007 and all the BOGO and 50%-Off sales they've sponsored.

As for your "far more Blu-Ray players" quote, they certainly haven't accomplished much in terms of blowing away the competition! In actuality, when considering the odds against HD DVD, the extra studio support BD enjoyed (until recently), Sony's attempts at buying every retailer, rental chain, and mode of public perception, and the # of PS3's in the wild, Blu-Ray has been an absolute bust!

I wouldn't call a mere 600,000 discs "far more movies", especially considering all the advantages Blu-Ray has enjoyed during the first half of 2007 and all the BOGO and 50%-Off sales they've sponsored.

As for your "far more Blu-Ray players" quote, they certainly haven't accomplished much in terms of blowing away the competition! In actuality, when considering the odds against HD DVD, the extra studio support BD enjoyed (until recently), Sony's attempts at buying every retailer, rental chain, and mode of public perception, and the # of PS3's in the wild, Blu-Ray has been an absolute bust!So far the PS3 has failed in everything it does. I had originally said that Sony couldn't kill the PS brand, but I have started to rethink that position. There is no doubt that a lot of free and half price discs went over scanners in Q1 2007. Maybe, as many as the lead they have over HD DVD.

I wouldn't call a mere 700,000 discs "far more movies", especially considering all the advantages Blu-Ray has enjoyed during the first half of 2007 and all the BOGO and 50%-Off sales they've sponsored.

As for your "far more Blu-Ray players" quote, they certainly haven't accomplished much in terms of blowing away the competition! In actuality, when considering the odds against HD DVD, the extra studio support BD enjoyed (until recently), Sony's attempts at buying every retailer, rental chain, and mode of public perception, and the # of PS3's in the wild, Blu-Ray has been an absolute bust!

I can't think of the best term right now to describe significantly less than a "bust" but I guess if that is how you feel about HD DVD then by all means, lol :o

I own a PS3.

I have rented over 20 Blu-ray discs at blockbuster.

I own over 70 Blu-ray discs.

I own zero PS3 games. I have never played any game on my PS3.

If the PS3 was not out I would 100% own a standalone blu-ray player.

There are enough people EXACTLY like me that if you only counted the PS3's being used in this way, Blu-ray has the lead in machines that are actively used as movie players.

All of you HD DVD fans can play with semantics all you want, but the FACT is that there are more machines being used as Blu-ray players. The fact that many PS3's are not used as Blu-ray players does not change this fact.

The software lead for Blu-ray is not from a few PS3 owners buying a few movies, it is because there are more movie fans with Blu-ray players than HD DVD players.

Thanks for sharing your industry knowledge :p Do you work for the BDA?

I can't think of the best term right now to describe significantly less than a "bust" but I guess if that is how you feel about HD DVD then by all means, lol :o

You obviously don't get it. If you played basketball against Jordan and managed to keep it close, would that be "significantly less than a bust"? Would Jordan's game be a success because he beat you by a small margin?

HD-DVD supporters are optimistic to a fault. I can't think of anyone else I'd rather have around should I ever be diagnosed with a terminal disease...aside from family and friends.

Let me think about this one......the BDA declaring victory, BD supporters declaring that it's over for HD DVD, HD DVD supporters saying we have a stalemate on our hands, but momentum swinging toward HD DVD.

If we're optimistic to a fault, how would you describe the other side? In denial? ;)

I wouldn't call a mere 700,000 discs "far more movies", especially considering all the advantages Blu-Ray has enjoyed during the first half of 2007 and all the BOGO and 50%-Off sales they've sponsored.

As for your "far more Blu-Ray players" quote, they certainly haven't accomplished much in terms of blowing away the competition! In actuality, when considering the odds against HD DVD, the extra studio support BD enjoyed (until recently), Sony's attempts at buying every retailer, rental chain, and mode of public perception, and the # of PS3's in the wild, Blu-Ray has been an absolute bust!

And it doesn't appear to be improving at all:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=536


. . . . . . .. . . 15-Sep . . . . . . 8-Sep

Wii - ............ 93,455......... 116,659 -20%

DS - ............102,585.........108,613 -6%

PS3 - ........ 30,158...........51,714 -42%

PSP - ............ 67,105........... 56,527 +19%

Xbox 360 - ......88,658........... 75,690 +17%

Exactly..

As for software lead..someone was right..retailers are doing a piss poor job and are actually sabotaging HD DVD side. Not updating HD DVD movies at Best Buy with new releases or begin very slow at it, having dramatically less available titles at retail for HD DVD shows retailer rebellion against HD DVD.

Why you ask? Well it's not because Blu-Ray are selling more (the amount of both being sold is miserable) so this really doesn't affect their bottom line even if they offered both to the full capacity. The reason why we see Blu-Ray advantage the most is because retailers and most CE companies support Blu-Ray as they see it as cash cow. Meaning it allows them to make more money of off consumers. This is completely understandable when you look at their motives, but is completely unacceptable if we look at it as consumers.

So, we have a better mass capable product with same quality as Blu-Ray with only somewhat higher bit rates and size that BD offers that don't really translate to any benefit for 99% of consumers nor it will in the long run because studios' business models anyways, with prices at $200 but consumers are forced to pick by retailers and CE companies, a more expensive players that we will need to replace if we want new features only several months from now.

It boggles my mind that anyone would want to support something like that, unless you really have money to waste (are so passionate about perfect sound and picture that $100k home entertainment systems are just a drop in the bucket for you) or are a complete numbnut. I think retailers initially were drawn to Blu-ray margins and to the BDA hype.

But with the Paramount/Dreamworks decision, and HD DVDs ability to stay competitive, and now with lower hardware prices approaching mass consumer adoption points, the retail disadvantage for Blu-ray is decreasing.

A lot of the retail disadvantage has been because of Blu-ray companies and the BDA wasting money on retail placements during low volume sales period or with expensive hardware that has been slow to sell.

HD DVD has saved a lot of money to now use during a much higher volume hardware sales period when it can promote hardware units that are much closer to mass market adoption points.

HD DVD players will also be available in mass market volumes.

To me that seems like the better strategy.

To me that seems like the better strategy.

I believe that is a better strategy for 2007.
There are a couple of things people forget when they compare this to the DVD launch.
1. DVD didn't have DVD as a competitor (VHS wasn't even close)
2. VCRs were way more expensive in 1997 as compared to DVD players today, and forget content.

The BDA followed a tried and true launch formula, well tried and true for 1997.

...Except that it isn't true and you know it isn't true...

...hope that you won't start using "hardware" to exclude the PS3 or XBOX360 add-on...

...If you want to make a claim...

...That is just a misleading way to exclude hardware ...

...You know better...

...Would you claim...

...You and I both know that...

...to be misleading. You have claimed...

...but here you claim...

... can understand why some HD DVD fans would be happy to see them claiming...

...Not sure if you had trouble comprehending it,...

...hopeful not in the idiotic way some people like to though...

...Using a word in one sentence with one meaning and in the next sentence with another meaning is one thing that can be deceptive. I already asked this once, but didn't get an answer:...

:



...Not saying you did it on purpose...... Yes, you kinda did



...I don't understand why you won't answer I tried my best, despite your accusatory and confrontational manner



...This doesn't seem that complicated to me, so not sure why some people here seem to be having a problem understanding it...
Maybe its your tone. :)

Most people don't have as much patience as I do, and I'm trying to be responsive to you in spite of you being quite a bit confusing emotional and rude.

I honestly hope I clarified my answers to you, so you better understand my position on this this.

I'm still trying to understand why you are so upset.

But I hope I have clarified my statement to you.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11728423&postcount=53

If you have any others issues you can always PM me and you know I will respond.

You obviously don't get it. If you played basketball against Jordan and managed to keep it close, would that be "significantly less than a bust"? Would Jordan's game be a success because he beat you by a small margin?

Once again you are simply wrong.

I own over 70 Blu-ray discs.

I own zero PS3 games. I have never played any game on my PS3.

Nice debating point because it avoids the facts: yes, you are an exception but the reality is most PS3s are NOT connected to an HDTV.

HD DVD and Blu-ray HDTV viewing experience is about seeing movies and similar content on larger screens, great detail and fabulous sound. There are some opportunities for interactive features, but it is largely about larger than life or equal to life images and Hollywood doing its best to entertain.

Approximately 100% of HD DVD players are connected to HDTVs. Nearly as many HD DVD add-on drives connected to XBoxes are also connected the HDTVs. I dare say 100% of Blu-ray stand-alone players are connected to HDTVs. However a dangerous majority of Blu-ray PS3s are NOT connected to HDTVs ... quite apart from the fact that PS3s are designed and marketed for playing games, not movies (although they play movies very well in the right conditions). Many have suggested about 20% of PS3s are used for Blu-ray movies and therefore are connected to HDTVs.

HD DVD players out-flank Blu-ray players. HD DVD drives for Xboxes are a small, but not terribly important sub-market. The 20% of Blu-ray PS3s capable of playing back hidef movies (the ones attached to HDTVs) have a significant impact in 2007 sales figures, especially movies (content) with a gamers demographic skew. Hence, 300 sold extremely well on Blu-ray because it appealed also to gamers; BBC Planet Earth sold better on HD DVD because it appealed less to gamers.

During the fall, sales of stand-alone HD DVD and Blu-ray players will push Blu-ray PS3 users into a smaller statistical niche where even titles with a skew to the gaming community will merely create an edge, a blip, and not a newsworthy triumph. And, maybe, XBox HD DVD add on owners will help smooth out the imbalances.

Sony gambled the PS3 would sell a couple of million MORE PS3s in 2007 than it will and hoped that would cause an overwhelming lead in Blu-ray owners connected to HDTVs to help payback the exclusive studio support. The also gambled this would create an overwhelming lead driving HD DVD into a distant Toshiba dream. But that gamble was played out and lost. There is a rough parity in content, and box office approved content, and one format 50% the price of the other and edging ahead in lower cost of hardware and software, allowing for short-term profits and the ability to expand without further fresh investment.

Blu-ray can still drive HD DVD to the sidelines: like a Sony BD-500 player, in Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy in quantities to fulfil everyone's needs, at around $249 for the balance of 2007 ... and starting around next week. But more probably Sony and co will play out this hand, a hand of a thousand cuts, a slow, lingering fade to black as allies pull away, piece by piece, and the enemy grows stronger as ones own strength wanes, finally faltering into a whimper.

Sony-Samsung-Disney-Fox can win this thing by banding together and relaly putting their investment dollars where they are needed: not in blu-ray blogs but at point-of-sale pricing of both software and hardware staring J6P right in the eye as they deliver the goods. Will it happen? Not likely. Could it? Yes.

As Forrester Research said today: The is Blu-ray's war to lose.

Blu-ray can still drive HD DVD to the sidelines: like a Sony BD-500 player, in Target, Wal-Mart, Best Buy in quantities to fulfil everyone's needs, at around $249 for the balance of 2007 ... and starting around next week. But more probably Sony and co will play out this hand, a hand of a thousand cuts, a slow, lingering fade to black as allies pull away, piece by piece, and the enemy grows stronger as ones own strength wanes, finally faltering into a whimper.

This would provide Bluray huge momentum. A $249 BD player to compete directly with Toshiba!

What everyone fails to realize that Sony has painted themselves in a corner. Price points are finite at this point. Sony has not had a problem losing money in this war.. look at the PS3. They subsidize the consumer just to get the sale. They could easily take a hit on the players too.

BUT.. any decrease in price on BD players makes the PS3 sales (for the consumers interested in using it as mostly a BD player) drop off. More lost money in the console business... potentially pushing them completely out of the running in the console wars -- especially with a lack luster game selection.

A decrease in price on BD players also directly renders all the other CE's that they so favorably mention as a BD selling point completely unable to keep pace. Their sales would like drop off even sharper than the PS3. Many may consider it not worth the effort to continue to produce players, especially if Sony themselves is selling them at a loss.

Basically Sony's best bet is to further lower the PS3 to $399 (as mentioned in the press) and then continue their "fear" marketing campaign. Continue to scare the consumers into believing that if they pick anything other than BD (DVD included) they will become extinct.

Sony will not be able to compete on the price front for quite some time, if ever. Warner knows this -- now they want to see if that's really what the consumer wants -- better pricing -- something BDA can never offer. Again, the problem with sticking with one company (Sony) who has multiple agendas for the HDM format (increase sales in gaming division, increase sales in studio division, increase sales in hardware division, increase sales in patent division)

Just a point I wanted to make in regards to "stand-alone" players...

People have argued that you have to factor out the PS3 and the Xbox 360 add-on when talking about stand-alone players. While that is sort of true, I don't think it gets at the heart of the issue.

If someone buys a Blu-Ray standalone, they bought it because they wanted to watch BD. If someone buys an HD-DVD standalone, they bought it because they wanted to watch HD-DVD.

Now, if someone buys a PS3, there's really no way to tell why they purchased it: was it for a BD player, or was it for the games (heh)?

On the other hand, if someone buys the 360 add-on, regardless of the fact that it attaches to the Xbox, they bought it for one sole and clear reason: to watch HD-DVDs. I think it would make sense to count those as "stand-alone" players even though they don't work without the Xbox 360. It's entirely clear they were bought to watch movies on and nothing else (they don't do anything else!).

Thanks for expanding on the points I was trying to make.in the last three posts,

Those comments pretty much also reflect my own thoughts....

...but you guys forgot to use the word "hardware"......:eek:

j/k :D :D :D

Just a point I wanted to make in regards to "stand-alone" players...

People have argued that you have to factor out the PS3 and the Xbox 360 add-on when talking about stand-alone players. While that is sort of true, I don't think it gets at the heart of the issue.

If someone buys a Blu-Ray standalone, they bought it because they wanted to watch BD. If someone buys an HD-DVD standalone, they bought it because they wanted to watch HD-DVD.

Now, if someone buys a PS3, there's really no way to tell why they purchased it: was it for a BD player, or was it for the games (heh)?

On the other hand, if someone buys the 360 add-on, regardless of the fact that it attaches to the Xbox, they bought it for one sole and clear reason: to watch HD-DVDs. I think it would make sense to count those as "stand-alone" players even though they don't work without the Xbox 360. It's entirely clear they were bought to watch movies on and nothing else (they don't do anything else!).

I agree with this but am sure it has been brought up before and can't see where it was argued against.

I am sure there is a logical reason why the add-on is not counted like the PS3.

I think the reason is because it needs a PC or 360 to play. Bad reasoning in my book.

I agree with this but am sure it has been brought up before and can't see where it was argued against.

I am sure there is a logical reason why the add-on is not counted like the PS3.

I think the reason is because it needs a PC or 360 to play. Bad reasoning in my book.


I don't think anyone doubts counting the number of add-ons sold as HD DVD players. I don't. I also don't think we should discount the PS3 as a player either. I believe that's nfinity's argument. Standalones vs standalones, consoles vs consoles, etc, that he made earlier.

So I don't mind counting add-on's plus standalones and I don't mind including a percentage of PS3's based on the number of discs sold to approximate how many PS3's are being actively used to play content. The problem is how do we derive that percentage? It's a headache.

Assuming nfinity didn't pull that 13% out of his butt, I think 13% of 3 or so million PS3's is not that bad. That's what? 25%-33% of the total units sold of either side's standalones? Nor can we doubt that the arrival of the PS3 ushered in a complete turnaround for the format war.

Last year, around this time, this same argument was going on, but the shoe was on the other foot. It was HD DVD's war to lose, it was HD DVD that was doing "decent" with 3:1, 2:1 ratios every week. Those who liked Blu-ray at the time were trying to make the HD DVD fanatics that permeated these boards then (even worse than the fanatical few that remain today) understand that the sales numbers were so pathetic that all the "Since Inception" numbers then didn't matter. That the PS3 would change things.

"No, that won't happen," was the mantra. "No way. It can't happen." "Look at how far ahead HD DVD is!"

It's amusing to see how the arguments have all changed and the people who made them last year are using the arguments they were so adamantly against last year. I guess whatever works for the side you favor, no? ;)

The fact is that the game got bigger when the PS3 entered the picture and no matter how hard and how well you try to discount its being a big factor in this format war, it made a big difference and has shifted the balance to the present 1.5:1-2:1 factor that it is today. So even that "small" percentage of PS3's that are out there being used for BD only playback (like the PS3 I bought expressly for BD playback) is significant enough to more than double the discs sold and push the format ahead.

I also don't think the point has been driven home enough, so here's a reminder. You cannot complain about Blu-ray's "attach rate" AND then say that the PS3 doesn't count toward total players sold for Blu-ray. It's a contradiction and it's coloring the facts. You pick one. You either are on the camp that PS3's count toward players sold and then have to lose the "players sold" conflict to win the attach rate conflict; or you say that PS3's don't count and win the players sold conflict and lose the attach rate conflict (because then those lower players sold you bring up have very high attach rates).

Personally, I'd go with the former if I were you. PS3's are all potential BD players, whether they're used for that purpose now or not. So at any time, as HDTV penetration continues, a PS3 might be hooked up, someone might watch Talledega Nights or any of the 5 free BD's and go, "Honey... you know, I love this here Blu-ray..."

I see this no different from the low-priced HD DVD players placed in the pricepoint of DVD upscalers. People who buy a low-priced HD DVD player as a dvd upscaler are not the audience that's inclined to buy high priced combo discs nor are they the kind who are going to replace every player with an HD DVD player so they can replace their library. Nor are they the audience that will buy both the DVD and HD DVD of a given movie.

Hence, you're talking about people buying a low-priced HD DVD player based on upscaling capability and the POTENTIAL that they might SOMEDAY find an HD DVD low enough they'll buy. I see that potential as little different from the PS3's where the price of BD's might go low enough to lure people into buying a movie or two.

Yes, upscaling players that also happen to have HD DVD are used for movies only, but lest we forget... the Red Side thinks price is the primary motivator for sales and I don't disagree that it's a factor, but I do think that disc prices will continue to hinder both sides until they drop down closer (during the sales times) to the prices of dvds.

And marketing to the $200 mass pricepoint crowd with $30 discs isn't going to win a format war. Sorry.

. . . . . . .. . . 15-Sep . . . . . . 8-Sep
Wii - ............ 93,455......... 116,659 -20%
DS - ............102,585.........108,613 -6%
PS3 - ........ 30,158...........51,714 -42%
PSP - ............ 67,105........... 56,527 +19%
Xbox 360 - ......88,658........... 75,690 +17%


Holy cow! No wonder why MASrules doesn't buy PS3 games. They must really stink!

So now the PS3 is getting out sold 3:1 by the 360...AND more than 3:1 by the Wii. And this is before the Halo 3 launch!!!

The primary issue that will limit the usage of the PS3 as a Blu-ray player in households that purchased them as gaming consoles in the factor that after they are bought consumers tend to use items for the use they were intended for.

Sony asked a lot to have the PS3 act as a Trojan Horse, consumers generally do not does that as a general rule. Yes, the PS3 is unique, but not unique enough.

The vast majority of PS3's will be used on small televisions and non HDTV displays, and probably not on the main display in th house. It was bought as a gaming machine and it will stay as a gaming machine for the most part.

At this stage of the game, with an attach rate of less than one, its clear that for the foreseeable future, unless Blu-ray discs replaced DVDs in store stockage, and cost little more than DVDs most PS3 users are not going to convert to Blu-ray buyers.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

There's about 135 million DVD players in the wild now. Even if the PS3 got to 10 million units sold in a few years , at a 15%-20% Blu-ray active Blu-ray player usage rate, thats only equal to 1.5 to 2 M standalone players.

That's significant , but far less than the overwhelming factor it is now.

Its far more likely that the PS3 will sell 2 million units this 4Q. If that's he case 400,000 standalone units would balance them out.

Now if Blu-ray wins, DVD dies out, and HDTV penetration evolves so much that the bathroom TV becomes a HDTV, then yeh, those extra Blu-ray sockets in the PS3 will increase in usage, but by that time the PS4 will come out.

Its just as possible that the PS4 would have a HD DVD drive in it.

As more gamers buy the PS3 this fall, and less people buy it as a proxy dedicated player, because now better options are available , the impact of the PS3 will probably lessen.

The Real issue is not what the WSJ posted. It's another fluff piece IMO. The real issue is . . . will the public desire HDM? That is the ONLY issue that matters because it is NOT a foregone conclusion (catchy phrase heh?;))

There have been many products that are "priced right" and failed to grab the publics attention. And HDM may be one of them.

BTW, I don't think any serious poster discounted the fact that the PS3 would have a significant impact. I certainly did not.

I do remembering surprise that the first couple early weeks after the PS3 launch hardly affected HDM sales as well.

It was only a few weeks later that when after the non fanatic non gamer PS3 users buying surge happened and the PS3 was available enough for home theater first adopters to walk in and buy them that the Blu-ray sales numbers surged.

That was also the time that the initial batch o PS3 owners would start to redeem their $10 off in store rebate coupons that were in their PS3 box.

It's amusing to see how the arguments have all changed and the people who made them last year are using the arguments they were so adamantly against last year. I guess whatever works for the side you favor, no? ;)I don't think the argumanets have changed that much at all.

Re: PS3... We've been talking about this since 2006:
December 2006 - http://www.campaignhd.com/Comment_PS3_Launch.html
April 007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/407_PS3_Problems.html

Re: BD 1.1... I was talking about this from 2006, then started writing:
January 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/Comment_BD_1G_Obsolete.html
April 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/407_BD_Delayed_Again.html
August 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/807_BD11_Update.html

Not that much change in beliefs. In fact, the only change I've noticed is that I used to think that HD DVD would equalize and both formats survive. But NOW, I realize that BD has too many problems that need another year to fix, and it may actually LOSE. That's the only change in thinking...

And marketing to the $200 mass pricepoint crowd with $30 discs isn't going to win a format war. Sorry.You blithely ignore the fact that most HDM titles on sale at Amazon are at $22 or even lower?

I don't think the argumanets have changed that much at all.

Re: PS3... We've been talking about this since 2006:
December 2006 - http://www.campaignhd.com/Comment_PS3_Launch.html
April 007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/407_PS3_Problems.html

Re: BD 1.1... I was talking about this from 2006, then started writing:
January 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/Comment_BD_1G_Obsolete.html
April 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/407_BD_Delayed_Again.html
August 2007 - http://www.campaignhd.com/807_BD11_Update.html

Not that much change in beliefs. In fact, the only change I've noticed is that I used to think that HD DVD would equalize and both formats survive. But NOW, I realize that BD has too many problems that need another year to fix, and it may actually LOSE. That's the only change in thinking...

You blithely ignore the fact that most HDM titles on sale at Amazon are at $22 or even lower?

You blithely ignore the fact that most people still don't buy their HDM titles at Amazon.:rolleyes:

Amusingly, it seems to me that it's the financial/business journals that seem to get the lay of the land more accurately pegged than the more myopic and biased tech-publications.

I think people sometimes forget this about money, more than shoulds and woulds.

Good point, I wish we could just have the article posted in here without the bias added in by highlighting the HD-DVD points. :rolleyes:

Good point, I wish we could just have the article posted in here without the bias added in by highlighting the HD-DVD points. :rolleyes:

We certainly wouldn't want any bias in reporting things here at the media discussion forum, would we? :rolleyes:
To put it another way, people in glass houses shouldn't throw rocks.

You blithely ignore the fact that most people still don't buy their HDM titles at Amazon.:rolleyes:

Sure, they buy them at Fry's Electronics and similar where the titles are not sold for the most part at $19.99

BD has succeeded because of the PS3 and it may now die from it. PS3 sales are dropping off and early indications of xmas sales say that high priced items won't sell this year. PS3 can't compete with either HD DVD player prices nor Halo 3 and Xbox or Wii. BD player prices remain too high for easy entry. Neutral press doesn't make these claims of PQ or AQ, but they haven't zero'd in on the profile issue yet, and they may.

I bought my PS3 for the Blu Ray player exclusively. I am not a gamer.

Come on Kosty. You know better. The NPD number doesn't tell you that HD is leading hardware and you know that in your comment here:
all hardware is the gift that keeps on giving, but it was convenient for you to use the same "hardware" as the article. Would you claim that standalone sales are the gift that keeps on giving, but non-standalone hardware aren't? I would sure hope not.

You and I both know that the NPD number doesn't have to be off for the to be misleading. You have claimed that HD DVD has better attach rate, but here you claim it leads hardware, and you also acknowledge that it trails in software sales. You can't have it all unless you pick a very misleading path. And yes, I know the context of the article and people paying attention could figure out that they conveniently don't count some hardware that people use to watch these movies as hardware.

I can understand why some HD DVD fans would be happy to see them claiming that HD DVD leads for hardware though. Just a small jump from something true to something not true.
Not sure if you had trouble comprehending it, but I don't question that HD DVD leads in standalones and you used the correct term there IMO. Claiming they lead for hardware is a different thing. Especially somebody who says they lead for attach rates, which they couldn't do if they lead in hardware and trail in software.

--Darin


thank god we have you here to police our thoughts

Software sells formats....with Transformers HDDVD coming out and Halo 3 out for the Xbox 360, these two events pull people into a certain format....Transformers fans will buy standalone HD DVD players and lots of Halo fans will buy 360's and then buy the add-on drive.

When I say that "hardware sales are the gift that keeps on giving" I mean that in the way that I think most most people here familiar with the issues would, that increasing hardware sales and the accumulating increasing size of the dedicated player installed base' has significant long term impact because a single hardware sale pretty much locks most owners into a single format and that new owner will buy a lot of software units in the future.We can agree to disagree, but that applies to a very large degree to that couple hundred thousand or more PS3 owners that you have said bought it basically as a proxy dedicated player (if that is different than what you said you can correct it, but I believe it is what you said). But while you think that group exists who bought it instead of a dedicated player, looks like you count them as zero for your claim that we have a situation with HD DVD leading hardware. That is a lot of spin for somebody who has made those other claims IMO.
That is why I think that dedicated hardware player purchases mean a lot more at this stage of the game, than software units sold.Yet while you claim that many of those PS3s were bought instead of dedicated hardware players and that HD DVD has a better attach rate, you claim that HD DVD is leading hardware. The future is another story. I don't have any problem with speculating about what you think will happen, but I don't agree with a person who has claimed that HD DVD leads for attach rate and a lot of PS3s were bought basically as dedicated players for those people also claiming that HD DVD leads hardware currently. How are the people who bought the PS3 as proxy dedicated players different than people who bought true standalone players different as far as how they affect software sales for the future?
The PS3 just has not sold as many software units per hardware socket as those dedicated standalone Blu-ray or HD DVD playersAs anybody paying attention before it ever shipped should have known IMO. It has been true up until now and it will be true in the future, although the percentages may change. They naturally give at different rates per unit.
In the future, new PS3 buyers will not include the group of initial PS3 owners that bought the PS3 as a proxy dedicated Blu-ray movie player.Seems that by your own logic those people will buy dedicated players instead, yet you don't count them and then use the ratio without them counted as evidence of who leads hardware currently. Unless you think the kind of group that bought PS3s as proxy dedicated Blu-ray players wouldn't buy dedicated Blu-ray players to a large degree under the different circumstances for the future, then they are definitely relevant to how hardware sales are going and will go.
So although the PS3 has dominated the low volume software race so far, I think that the PS3 will be less and less a factor than future dedicated player sales.Seems like your logic is that standalone sales will replace those proxy dedicated PS3s and so you should count those proxy dedicated PS3s for something, but for your claim that HD DVD leads hardware you counted them as nothing. What is going to happen with the type of group that bought those as proxy dedicated players if they aren't going to buy PS3s as proxy dedicated players? Would they just go without a Blu-ray player altogether in your scenario?

I know this is getting long, but basically the PS3 took standalone sales away from the Blu-ray side as people bought them as proxy dedicated players even in your view, from what I've heard of it. Given that, those need to be considered and not just count them as zero because you think less of them (even as a percentage) will choose the proxy dedicated player route.
Whether or not you can accept it, its likely now, that even with a lot more PS3s sold, it impact on the format war will probably be less and less as time goes on and more dedicated units are sold, on both sides.And according to that logic its impact as far as taking away dedicated unit sales from the Blu-ray side should decrease.
... and HD DVD has an advantage in the high volume holiday sales season because it has lower prices that are reaching mass consumer adoption price points.At current prices I agree. Still waiting to see what is left in the quivers on both sides, but after the Paramount/Dreamworks decision I think that is true at current price points. But that is speculation and my problem is with the claim of where things are now and not so much of where things are going (although I think you need to factor those proxy players you think happened in instead of logic that seems to think the proxy sales will go away and not be replaced with dedicated sales, since the math counts them as zero).

Put another way with numbers just as an example, but not meant to reflect the true numbers or whole situation here, let's say that two formats had the following breakdown:

Format A:
2 dedicated players

Format B:
1 dedicate player
2 proxy dedicated players
10 multipurpose players mostly purchased for another purpose

who would lead for hardware? A person could conveniently count those "proxy dedicated players" on the B side as zero and say that side A leads because dedicated players are what counts, but if they agree that the B side would have likely sold 2 or more (maybe even 3) dedicated players if people hadn't bought the "proxy dedicated players", that seems like a pretty messed up way to count things to me.

In your view, what counts more, a dedicated player, or a proxy dedicated player?

Given that you are somebody who has claimed that HD DVD has higher attach rates, Blu-ray has higher software sales, that a lot of PS3s were sold as proxy dedicated players, and we've discussed it, would you claim that as of September 26th, 2007 HD DVD leads hardware? In case you want to avoid that since we don't have recent sales figures, would you claim that HD DVD led both hardware and attach rates as of the end of Q2 2007?

--Darin

Wow, proxy dedicated players?

Wow, proxy dedicated players?Yep, that was the term Kosty used, so that is what I used when discussing the positions he has taken.

--Darin

We certainly wouldn't want any bias in reporting things here at the media discussion forum, would we? :rolleyes:
To put it another way, people in glass houses shouldn't throw rocks.

And how many articles have I posted? None. Or are you lumping me with the entire Blu-Ray camp? If so, well done, you got me.