What if >3mil standalone HD DVD players sold by March? Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year. If 2mil chinese (Venturer, Best Buy and Wal-mart) players are sold by march, what will happen? Will we hear research and analyst firms declaring HD DVD the winner of the format war?

It would be a blow that BD couldn't overcome. I doubt it will happen, though.

It would be a blow that BD couldn't overcome. I doubt it will happen, though.

I agree.. I think they might be able to hit about 1.5 - 2 million alltogether don't think they can reach 3 million. Maybe with laptops and stuff yeah, but X360 addon + dedicated ones + chinese? Don't think so.

What if >3mil standalone HD DVD players sold by March? Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year. If 2mil chinese (Venturer, Best Buy and Wal-mart) players are sold by march, what will happen? Will we hear research and analyst firms declaring HD DVD the winner of the format war?

When coupled with the TL and DL Twin Format HD DVD's to replace DVD releases and that many new players in the wild in a 6 month time period . . . war over - HD DVD wins.

When coupled with the TL and DL Twin Format HD DVD's to replace DVD releases and that many new players in the wild in a 6 month time period . . . war over - HD DVD wins.
You forget the wink...

You forget the wink...

:D :D .. you mean this one ;) ?

You forget the wink...

No wink necessary - just a fact of life. Even 2 million SAL's will do it.

Plus Toshiba has expanded their LPT's to include HD DVD drives - now 5 models starting at under $1200. All get the free 5 HD DVD's and all come with HDMI Output ports and a digital audio output. Toshiba will sell about 70K to 80K per month.

Maybe it really is time to start to count the nails in BD;s coffin don't you think?;)

There - you got a wink!

I don't think it will happen it would be nice but unless the advertizing is steped up to the point were it become a must have item. Then now. This must have can be done with anything look at the wii before folks knew what it was a half miillion sold. No one new if it would work well or if theird be great content.

I think BD is trying this but with a high price tag its very hard. Which is why the sales on BD software is relitvly low compared to the software sales that should be.

Ah, let's play another round of the "what if" game. "What if" the Venturer players end up very buggy and Wal*Mart & Best Buy have to deal with 2mil returns? "What if" the PS3 takes off and sells 10mil by March? "What if" Warner gets paid off by Sony to go BD exclusive? "What if" Universal gets paid off? They're all valid "what if" situations we all need to analyze separately.

Or... "what if" no one cares about high definition on optical this holiday season and dvd maintains it's 98% market share?

LOL wtf at this thread????

What if...........we quit posting stupid posts, like this one.

Lets get real here people. What if.....my own creation.....I'll call it SHD-DVD (Super High Def) comes out at Christmas and all CE's and Studios support it AND I sell 3 million units over the Holidays???????

What do you guys think??? I bet it's all over for HD-DVD & Blu-Ray!!!!

Super High Def Rules!!

Your thoughts????

Please don't answer.

Oh and I forgot to mention it has 1080p&i together at the same time. It's a GREAT player!

What if >3mil standalone HD DVD players sold by March? Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year. If 2mil chinese (Venturer, Best Buy and Wal-mart) players are sold by march, what will happen? Will we hear research and analyst firms declaring HD DVD the winner of the format war?What if there were also >3mil standalone BD players sold by March? :)

What if God was one of us...?

What if there were also >3mil standalone BD players sold by March? :)

Have you sold 3million chips?;)

I am glad to see you still posting on this forum.:)

When you arrive at Disneyland, head straight to Fantasyland to see numbers like these by March. And when you are done there head to the nearest gift shop and buy a Blu-ray movie.

Have you sold 3million chips?;)Hey, there is always next year! :)

What if there were also >3mil standalone BD players sold by March? :)

Oi, stop messing with my fantasies !!! :D :D :D

What if >3mil standalone HD DVD players sold by March? Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year. If 2mil chinese (Venturer, Best Buy and Wal-mart) players are sold by march, what will happen? Will we hear research and analyst firms declaring HD DVD the winner of the format war?

War over!:)

Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year.I think you are just making an assumption that they did this because they think somebody else is going to sell a lot of HD DVD players and stating it as a fact, when the original 1.8 million prediction looked to me like it could be for HD DVD players total and not just for ones with Toshiba's name on them. Somebody could ask them, but given the numbers we've gotten I think it is very likely that the prediction went down because sales were going slower than they had predicted back when they thought the number would be 1.8 million. If the HD DVD group sold twice as many standalones in the next 3.2 months as in the last 17 months (which would require about 10x the average rate per week) they probably still wouldn't get to 1 million this year.

For those who think sales are going to go through the roof just because its the holiday season, DVD had their holiday seasons too and people can see from http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html that it shows about 3x for the 2nd holiday season compared to Q2 of the 2nd year. An increase, but not the kind of increase that some seem to think HD DVD will have. Looks to me like HD DVD would have to go from selling at a slower pace than that shows for DVD for comparable months (although that is probably shipped) to selling way more per month than DVD did, to meet what some people think is going to happen.

--Darin

When you arrive at Disneyland, head straight to Fantasyland to see numbers like these by March. And when you are done there head to the nearest gift shop and buy a Blu-ray movie.

Good one :)

I like pie, does anyone else like pie?

The last number of standalone sales being thrown around is 300k total for HD+BD. The ratio is somewhere between 55%-58% HD DVD. Even if we get extremely generous and went 60%*300k, that gives us 180k HD DVD players sold.

If this is the actual number of standalones, that means 1M by dec30 2007 is not reachable. I suppose we could count the 360 addon, but that's still a very aggressive ramp.

3 Million total dedicated standalone HD DVD players sold by March 2008 would be an amazing result, but that's probably unrealistic.

Even if you included Xbox 360 add ons and if Microsoft dramatically slashed prices for them, that just ain't gonna happen

If you added up all laptops and PC drives, it ain't gonna happen.

If numbers anywhere approaching that occurred it would balance out 5 times or more the number of PS3s. Since say 20% of PS3 users are buying Blu-ray discs , 3 million dedicated HD DVD users would balance out 15 million PS3 users. Ain't going happen.

The last number of standalone sales being thrown around is 300k total for HD+BD. The ratio is somewhere between 55%-58% HD DVD. Even if we get extremely generous and went 60%*300k, that gives us 180k HD DVD players sold.

If this is the actual number of standalones, that means 1M by dec30 2007 is not reachable. I suppose we could count the 360 addon, but that's still a very aggressive ramp. I think the current number is much higher than that, but you are right that 3 million units is a pipe dream.

The only way you could possibly get to 3 million is by counting PC and laptop drives and they would have to be an almost free option and be included with a new system purchase to get that kind of penetration.

Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year.

(a) The forecast reduction happened 3½ months ago;

(b) It's 1mil in the calendar year, not fiscal year;

(c) The reduction wasn't related to the availability of Chinese players, but rather to the "slower than expected" player sales.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUST16250120070612

What if Toshiba actually sold 500,000 to 600,000 stand alone players by this past march like it once said it could. :)

(a) The forecast reduction happened 3½ months ago;

(b) It's 1mil in the calendar year, not fiscal year;

(c) The reduction wasn't related to the availability of Chinese players, but rather to the "slower than expected" player sales.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUST16250120070612 In retrospect , it also looks like it was based partly on Toshiba planning on closing out 2nd generation unit production earlier than most anticipated, and shifting over to less costly 3rd generation unit production, that would be available in retail inventory only later in the fall.

That and generally weaker than expected retail support at mass market retailers for the second generation units. Still the have probably shipped all they produced and they all will inevitably be sold.

What if Toshiba actually sold 500,000 to 600,000 stand alone players by this past march like it once said it could. :) Then HD DVD would have been leading all year in software sales as well and Blu-ray would have well on its way to being a niche Sony PS3 format.

But that did not happen, and IIRC Toshiba was straightforward in saying that to industry analysts and investors as soon as it was clear that it would not.

Unlike Sony who never did a sales adjustment for the PS3 claiming right until the last minute that it would ship 6 million units to March 07. They tried very hard mind you and managed to create a mountain of unsold units. 6 months later and they still have only sold just over 4.5 million.

What if >3mil standalone HD DVD players sold by March? Toshiba, knowing the availability of affordable Chinese players entering the US market, has slashed its HD DVD sales forcast from 1.8mil to just 1mil in the fiscal year. If 2mil chinese (Venturer, Best Buy and Wal-mart) players are sold by march, what will happen? Will we hear research and analyst firms declaring HD DVD the winner of the format war?

Hey, I want HD DVD to win too, but I gotta try some of whatever it is you were doing when you wrote this post. I don't think HD DVD could move 3MM players by March if they sold them for $39 with 5 free movies and a bag of peanuts.

Hey, I want HD DVD to win too, but I gotta try some of whatever it is you were doing when you wrote this post. I don't think HD DVD could move 3MM players by March if they sold them for $39 with 5 free movies and a bag of peanuts.Would that be with the choice of 5 free HD-DVD or Blu-ray movies?

3 million is totally unobtainable by March 2008. I would expect the goal should be million. That would be a 250 million dollar a year marketplace and one that the studios would be happy to support. Maybe 3 million by March 2009.

wouldn't mean anything

both formats are here to stay unless major studio shifts occur.

...they would have to be an almost free option and be included with a new system purchase to get that kind of penetration.

I know I'd turn neutral with a free drive option. Hell, I'm getting a new comp in June, so bring on the free drive!

Aside from the fun, why do we fall for threads like these? I mean what if HD DVD was proven to cause cancer? VMD might bring world peace. 4 million PS3 owners might suddenly realize they have an HD player and buy 20 movies each on the same day.

Personally, I think that even if HD DVD gets all the rumored ducks in a row, it'll still be awhile before we see significant movement in the market. Neither format is going to go mainstream this year or next.

Hey, I want HD DVD to win too, but I gotta try some of whatever it is you were doing when you wrote this post. I don't think HD DVD could move 3MM players by March if they sold them for $39 with 5 free movies and a bag of peanuts.

Peanuts? No way, a bag of pop-corn, now that would seal the deal!:D

I know I'd turn neutral with a free drive option. Hell, I'm getting a new comp in June, so bring on the free drive!

Aside from the fun, why do we fall for threads like these? I mean what if HD DVD was proven to cause cancer? VMD might bring world peace. 4 million PS3 owners might suddenly realize they have an HD player and buy 20 movies each on the same day.

Personally, I think that even if HD DVD gets all the rumored ducks in a row, it'll still be awhile before we see significant movement in the market. Neither format is going to go mainstream this year or next.

Unfortunately this really is the truth of the matter.:(