Exactly what do you think is the "Magic" price point for HDM players that will convince the average consumer to step into the HD media market?

If you chose "other" please put that number in your reply.

$226.35 Cdn

the magic price point, is the point at which everyone and their grandmother owns an HDTV. until that point, HDM will be niche nomatter the price point.

with that said, I went with $150

$199 CDN (which also happens to be $199 US).

$199 - to get the next market segment into buying HDM. The segment larger than those who would pay $299.

What is the magic price point for something unwanted by the public at large? That's an excellent question.

i honestly think it will take a player under $100 to reach everyday consumers. The price of movies has to come down at retail as well. People see that CC and BB are charging MSRP and get turned away

i honestly think it will take a player under $100 to reach everyday consumers.
I disagree, but I suppose it would depend upon what your definition of "everyday" is.

I don't see every great-grandma out there buying at $199, but then again, most of those great-grandmas wouldn't buy at $99 either.


The price of movies has to come down at retail as well. People see that CC and BB are charging MSRP and get turned away
Agreed. Myself included. I'm very selective about what I buy on disc, and even then I usually purchase through Amazon.com.

The next tier is competing with upconverting players in BM. Good ones run around $100 or so for a name brand. At that price you buy and say hey it not only upconverts but it also plays these other types of movies. So $99 seems like the price to me.

And great-grandmas don't tend to buy upconverting DVD players either.

I disagree, but I suppose it would depend upon what your definition of "everyday" is.

I don't see every great-grandma out there buying at $199, but then again, most of those great-grandmas wouldn't buy at $99 either.



Agreed. Myself included. I'm very selective about what I buy on disc, and even then I usually purchase through Amazon.com.my parents (in their upper 50s) only own a DVD player because I left my old one there when I left. it never gets used. they own zero DVDs, and aren't the types to want to watch a movie more than once.

I think there is a good amount of people still like this. in 10 years the consumer market type majority may change more in favor of gamers/movie collectors/hobbyists/tech nerds, but right now I feel the majority of people living today grew up with B&W TVs or fuzzy coathanger antenna transmissions.

HD is nothing special to this majority

It could be $10 and still not catch on simply because people don't know anything about it. Heck, the amount of people who think that their DVD players can play HD DVDs probably outnumbers those who actually have HD DVDs.

And great-grandmas don't tend to buy upconverting DVD players either.

great grandma is irrelevant in this. This is mainly for consumers in the 15-60 age bracket.

I picked $199 but I have to admit that I didn't get into DVDs until back in 2001 when the price of the players had dropped to $99.

However my annual income has increased fourfold since then so for me my concept of "entry level" may now be skewed.

Another factor I suppose that determines the adoption by the mass market is availability of media, both for purchase and for rental.

Fortunately players of both formats are backwards compatible to DVDs though, something DVD players couldn't really claim to VHS (except for the small percentage of combo players which typically cost as much or more back then as buying both a DVD and VHS player.)

Hmmm, a lot of things will factor into this decision I suppose.

I said other. If the Wii can sell and wipe up at $250, an HDM player can sell for $250.

I said other. If the Wii can sell and wipe up at $250, an HDM player can sell for $250.

But the Wii works with an NTSC TV (approx 85% of ALL TV's installed)while an HDM player does not. Need that HDTV to enjoy at least the increase in PQ.

great grandma is irrelevant in this. This is mainly for consumers in the 15-60 age bracket.
My original point is that the term "everyday" person means different things to different people.

As far as I'm concerned, MOST consumers in the 15-60 age bracket are arguably irrelevant too, since they won't buy into HD players even at $99.

I simply don't see the same adoption rate for the HD formats as DVD. IOW, the "everyday" DVD owning population will simply not be the same "everyday" HD DVD buying population in the next few years, even with rock bottom pricing.

However, I still predict a significant uptick in HD DVD player sales once those important $199, $149, and $99 milestones are reached.


I picked $199 but I have to admit that I didn't get into DVDs until back in 2001 when the price of the players had dropped to $99.

However my annual income has increased fourfold since then so for me my concept of "entry level" may now be skewed.
Well, I make way more than I used to too, but these days I'm willing to spend a lot less on players than I did back then (CAD$299 for my first SD player, and CAD$999 for my first progressive scan SD player).

There isn't one. One of the biggest myths is that there are "magic price points" that will attract consumer interest to a new format. Consumers need to get intersted in a product first, then magic price points can harness that interest to drive sales. FOrmat wars inherently subdue consumer interest, so all lowering the price does is get a few more people off the fence, and ensure there is less profit in the format over the long-haul for manufacturers.

Basically, it curtails the lifespan of next-gen media. Now, who would want that?

I picked $175 because I don't foresee prices dropping to <=$150 for atleast 3 years. But breaking through the $200 floor is important.

There is no "magic" price point when there are two competing formats, one of which is likely (in consumer minds) to die. Until that issue is resolved, normal people will largely sit on the sidelines, happy with HD sports and upconverted DVDs.

I picked $175 because I don't foresee prices dropping to <=$150 for atleast 3 years. But breaking through the $200 floor is important.
I foresee prices dropping to <= US$150 within three months, or else at the very latest, early 2008.

I foresee prices dropping to <= US$150 within three months, or else at the very latest, early 2008.

With CC having the A2 for $249 on the web site, and offering a $100 GC at the store, I bet a few people will be able to talk their way in to getting a new HDM player for $149 next week.

Even though I'm not around the machines very often (buying breakfast in the Dunkin' Donuts in a Stop & Shop before heading to work) I have seen quite a few "gray hairs" (folks over 60) using the RedBox DVD machines.

Yeah, people don't suddenly become stupid or complete shut-ins at age 60.0001.

There will be a proportion of people from most age groups that will buy into HD. It's however true that some age groups will be better represented than others. I'd think it's more likely that a 35 year old male is more likely to buy HD gear than a 68 year-old great-grandma.

However, the main point I was trying to make was that overall adoption rates are likely to be lower than with DVD, IMO.

With CC having the A2 for $249 on the web site, and offering a $100 GC at the store, I bet a few people will be able to talk their way in to getting a new HDM player for $149 next week.

I am willing to bet that the price on-line will go back up to $299 before the gift card promotion becomes active.

Rumour has it that Venturer is targetting a street price (on sale) for their player at around $150 (which is why I said "within three months").

MSRP is supposed to be $199 however.

What is the magic price point for something unwanted by the public at large? That's an excellent question.

but once it hits $99 they will buy it when replacing a broken dvd player.

$399.

The PS3 will have a $399 model out shortly that will sell like you can't imagine.

Once again millions of Blu Ray players will be sold.

-Brian

$399.

The PS3 will have a $399 model out shortly that will sell like you can't imagine.

Once again millions of Blu Ray players will be sold, for use on SDTVs

-Brianfixed

My PS3 isn't hooked up to SDTV's.

If you quote me get it right or don't quote me please.

-Brian

The magic price point is $19.99 for a new movie disc. The price of the player is not the biggest consideration to me and many others.

I wish this was a public poll so I could see the BD folks that voted $99 :D

The magic price point is $19.99 for a new movie disc. The price of the player is not the biggest consideration to me and many others.
I hope to rent most of my HD movies. (However, at the present time I buy most, because the selection for rentals sucks.)

$399.

The PS3 will have a $399 model out shortly that will sell like you can't imagine.

Once again millions of Blu Ray players will be sold.

-Brian

Are you smoking crack? They just up'd the price after the $499 fire sale.

Sony is determined to gouge the consumer. Their product is too high and they don't care.

the magic price point, is the point at which everyone and their grandmother owns an HDTV. until that point, HDM will be niche nomatter the price point.

with that said, I went with $150

Holy crap WE HAVE A WINNER!!!

I wish this was a public poll so I could see the BD folks that voted $99 :D

It doesnt need to be public for people to know who voted for the delusional $200 price point.


But, but it worked for DVD, it must be the same for HDM!!!!

My PS3 isn't hooked up to SDTV's.

If you quote me get it right or don't quote me please.

-BrianI didn't get anything "wrong"
I just added to your quote and said that I fixed it, to make it more accurate. I stated as such, as to not confuse this as your actual quote.

you've either never been to other forums, or you don't understand the humor in it, or both

what your PS3 is connected to has no bearing on the "millions" soon to be sold (according to you)

$199 for a brand name with no strings (it does all the functions it needs to).

My PS3 isn't hooked up to SDTV's.

If you quote me get it right or don't quote me please.

-Brian

He was giving you a good natured ribbing. And it was funny. Calm down.

I don't think there's really a magic price. There's a lot of other factors that play into this, and I don't think price alone will drive it. Now given all those other factors aligned correctly...probably $100 for your everyday customer...$200 for that mid-level one.

There are different tiers to consider...it's not like there's some magic price that opens the floodgates on 95% of the buying population. It is a tiered thing.

Well $99 was the magic point for me. I just think it becomes a question of a quality brand name player for around this price point purchasing occurs regardless of the HDM playback. The next thing that would need to change would be disk pricing.

You have to remember that the average consumer won't see it as buying an HDM player. They'll see it as an upconverting SD player that also plays hi-def discs.

If you can get a player within "upsellable" distance of a good upscaler, that's a good entry price. Figure it's about a 25-30% surcharge or the cost of an overpriced HDMI cable at CC and the consumer might say, "eh, what the hell" and go for it.

So, the question is, how many upscaling DVD players are being sold, and for what price? And what percentage of those can be flipped to entry-level HDM? 10%? 20? 30?

I don't see HDM disc price as being that important right away - these aren't the enthusiasts like you guys, 90% of the time they'll watch SD and not care. HDM will be like having a steak instead of hamburger - too expensive to have all the time but you still want to treat yourself every now and then.

Edit: From personal experience, I think the upsell point is the difference between a player and a recorder. I picked up a combo DVD/VCR that upscaled to 1080i, then thought "what the hell" and spent the extra 50-60 bucks and got the recorder version. And, of course, in four months, I've never recorded anything with it... :)

Unfortunately people do not see the value in HDM. I guess I am going with $150 but I honestly believe the A2 deals out there are a lot better than hitting that price point. Heck Circuit City is liable to be at $150 PLUS the new 5 free movie promo THIS WEEK. Its as much a matter of educating HDTV owners as it is of pricing. People just don't know this is out there.

I voted $99 because I think that's the number where a large number of folks are willing to take the plunge, whereas $199 is still to high for a benefit that many see as negligible.

If it's $99, people are too dam cheap! There I said it.

I don't want $99 anything in electronics, I bought a DVD-player that was close to $400 last year.

I had two of those dirt-cheap "Cyberhome" players for cheap all-region players in the bedrooms, one died after three month with very little use, and I gave the second away with a PAL disk to a friend.

My PS3 isn't hooked up to SDTV's.
If you quote me get it right or don't quote me please.

-Brian

I hope everyone has this correct now.
His PS3 is not hooked up to STDs.

:D

I hope everyone has this correct now.
His PS3 is not hooked up to STDs.

:Da firmwave upgrade that passes 1.3 HDMI, will change that:cool::D

The magic price point is HD DVD and BD saturation in rental stores.

People aren't idiots anymore. They know they don't save money by spending money. All the hype saying it is all about players selling at the 199.99 price point will decide the war is BS. WHat good does "cheap" players do when the majority of people won't or can't spend 20.00 or more per movie to purchase them. They want to rent and the majority outside of AVS do. They can't rent HDM if it isn't available.

This is where DVD comes into the picture. Until there is more HD DVD's or BD's in the rental stores, HDM will not catch on as yet most rental stores don't have any at all.

What sort of choice is this? $150? No way! No lone will pay $150! Ever!

Now at $149 .... a tidal wave of sales!! :p

Mass adoption? $99. DVD didn't get really big. Big enough that certain studios disatisfied with the unsalvagable broken DRM on DVD might consider abandoning it once penetration is past a specific threshold? $150

my first dvd player broke last week, And I paid 99 bucks for it. I am going for the same answer today 99 for mass adoption.

$199 for a full-functioning player should do it, but at this point it needs to be a $199 full-functioning dual-format player. i think even $299 should do but that wasn't an option.

Even if $99 HDM players take the place of upconverting players, it won't mean consumers will buy HDM disks.

I have friends (and my mother too) who still bought VHS even when they had DVD players! I expect many people will continue to buy DVD even if they have HDM-capable players, as long as DVD disks are readily available and cheaper than HDM disks.

the magic price point, is the point at which everyone and their grandmother owns an HDTV. until that point, HDM will be niche nomatter the price point.

with that said, I went with $150

You make an excellent point. When we've been watching HD programming and media for a long time it's easy to forget that only 30% of homes in the USA have an HDTV.
http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/press_release_detail.asp?id=11309

I voted other because I think there is no magic price point other than free if a that solution doesn't have 100% of the content a buyer wants.

$20 for media at BB, CC, Target and Walmart.

I voted other because I think there is no magic price point other than free if a that solution doesn't have 100% of the content a buyer wants.

This relates to what I said in my post. If the rental stores don't have the content, then free players are overpriced.

Most people do not or will not buy 20.00 plus movies when their monthly rental fee is 20.00 or less a month.

It's interesting that people will compare the price of SD-DVD players to HDM players and speculate on what the magic price point is for buying yet I see nobody comparing the price of flat panel HDTVs to RPTVs or CRTs. Since probably 99 percent of all TVs now sold are flat panels, one could say that a "magic price point" has been reached for them. So what is it? I would say it's at least double what equivalent RPTV and CRT sells for. Given that, we could conclude that HDM will take off when the average price of everything (displays, players, media) averages no more than double standard definition. That's my speculation.

Doug

It's interesting that people will compare the price of SD-DVD players to HDM players and speculate on what the magic price point is for buying yet I see nobody comparing the price of flat panel HDTVs to RPTVs or CRTs. Since probably 99 percent of all TVs now sold are flat panels, one could say that a "magic price point" has been reached for them. So what is it? I would say it's at least double what equivalent RPTV and CRT sells for. Given that, we could conclude that HDM will take off when the average price of everything (displays, players, media) averages no more than double standard definition. That's my speculation.

Doug
I'm not sure where you are pulling those numbers from. Clearly, CRT is history but Sony, JVC, Samsung and others would argue that RPTVs are more than 1% of all TV revenue and that many of these cost quite a bit more than Vizio LCDs or plasmas.

I'm not sure where you are pulling those numbers from. Clearly, CRT is history but Sony, JVC, Samsung and others would argue that RPTVs are more than 1% of all TV revenue and that many of these cost quite a bit more than Vizio LCDs or plasmas.

I pulled them out of my head, where else :) Not only are CRTs history, but so are RPTVs, and you can't go by the cost of specific brands. You have to look at overall sales and the trends. Clearly, the biggest problem with HDM right now, cost-wise, is with players and media.

Doug

I would have to say $100 or less. Otherwise I think the average consumer is happy with Dvd and wouldn't really consider it. Just my 2 cents worth.

There is no "magic" price point when there are two competing formats, one of which is likely (in consumer minds) to die. Until that issue is resolved, normal people will largely sit on the sidelines, happy with HD sports and upconverted DVDs.

Yep.

I have to disagree with Kram, I think people will take a chance at $100 if they can get a HD player that will upscale at the same price as a standard upscailing player. They have nothing to loose. I also feel that media prices must come way down for either format to be successful.

First, a word of warning.

There was a similar poll at the UK AVForums a few months ago - it asked BD owners what price they'd wait for HD DVD to drop to before they went dual format.

A number of well known BD fans voted some ridiculous, incredibly low price (£30, or so). Other voted that they'd never buy a HD DVD player.

At the same time there was a poll asking dual format owners which format they preferred. A number of the same BD fanboys voted in both polls!

In short, I wouldn't trust some people's answers.

Secondly, I don't think there is one price point.

Some people, who only buy supermarket specials, won't buy until it hits $50.

Some wouldn't be seen dead with a Lite On or Venturer, but will buy a Toshiba or Onkyo as soon as it hits $150.

Some only buy higher end kit, and won't buy until Denon release a player. But they won't spend more than $750.

The point is, all these people have different price points.

Steve W

It's interesting that people will compare the price of SD-DVD players to HDM players and speculate on what the magic price point is for buying yet I see nobody comparing the price of flat panel HDTVs to RPTVs or CRTs. Since probably 99 percent of all TVs now sold are flat panels, one could say that a "magic price point" has been reached for them. So what is it? I would say it's at least double what equivalent RPTV and CRT sells for. Given that, we could conclude that HDM will take off when the average price of everything (displays, players, media) averages no more than double standard definition. That's my speculation.

Doug

Flat panel HDTVs offer much more than high definition. Many people are buying flat panel HDTVs primarily because they are big and thin! People are buying flat panel HDTVs for the form-factor, not the resolution.

HDTV would never have caught on without flat panel displays. Consider this: Japan introduced consumer HD broadcasts and televisions over a decade ago, though it never caught on with HD CRTs. But the moment flat panel TVs are introduced... BOOM! Suddenly people started buying.

HDM is a much tougher sell than flat panel TVs. Many consumers would prefer to spend $200 on getting a new iPod that's smaller and more stylish than their old MP3 player, than spending $200 on an HDM player that's just a DVD player with improved picture quality. Size and style are more tangible and important to most consumers than anything HDM has to offer.

My magic price for DVD was $129 apparently, because thats when I bought my first player back in 1999.

For early-mid and true middle adopters, the price point would be $99-150. For the average consumer that has his/her $30 DVD player connected via composite cables to his/her $400 32" no-name LCD, it would obviously be $50.

The PS3 is a test case since most people are buying it as a game machine and getting the Blu-ray player "for free". So if these average people are not adopting HD, then the magical price is not $200 or $50 or even $0 - it's a NEGATIVE number!

Well, despite the fact that I typically loathe "generic" electronics brands, my first DVD player was in fact an Apex back in 2001 due mainly to the price and that it was able to play disks from any region (after a firmware update).

And the player is still running today and part of my entertainment center downstairs.

Back in 2001, almost no one I knew had a DVD player but after the price started dropping below $100 almost everyone had one in a matter of 2-3 months.

It was a cascade effect really. Once a couple of people bought the players and had their friends over to see some movies, the clarity of image over VHS won them over every time.

And I can all but guarantee that in my circle of friends at least, the exact same thing will happen once a HDM player hits the $99 -$150 price point.

Flat panel HDTVs offer much more than high definition. Many people are buying flat panel HDTVs primarily because they are big and thin! People are buying flat panel HDTVs for the form-factor, not the resolution.

HDTV would never have caught on without flat panel displays. Consider this: Japan introduced consumer HD broadcasts and televisions over a decade ago, though it never caught on with HD CRTs. But the moment flat panel TVs are introduced... BOOM! Suddenly people started buying.

HDM is a much tougher sell than flat panel TVs. Many consumers would prefer to spend $200 on getting a new iPod that's smaller and more stylish than their old MP3 player, than spending $200 on an HDM player that's just a DVD player with improved picture quality. Size and style are more tangible and important to most consumers than anything HDM has to offer.

Exactly. It's these intangibles that make it so hard to predict these kind of things. Some things, like CDs, DVDs, and flat panels, were no-brainers. Others, like HDM, are value judgments and we just have to wait and see what people decide. I do firmly believe that HDM will not go away but will steadily increase in usage until it dominates, either with one format or both with universal dual-players. At least we don't have to worry about some other format coming along at this point. It will be either HD DVD or BD or both.

Doug

Does anyone on this thread really believe there are just two markets; EA and everyone else? Cause if you do - you are sadly mistaken. There are many price releated markets when it comes to CE products.

And HDM is totally unique because you have to have an HDTV to see the better PQ. So automatically 70% of the marketplace doesn't count - not a factor.

As the price of a player drops - more available people will buy it IF they have an HDTV and they want HD movies on disc. Right now this is a total unknown. But it will be found out over the next 3 months.

I said $99; but honestly it is the format "war" that is probably keeping more people on the sidelines (like myself) than the price. Heck the price of an A-2 is more than comfortable with me. I have no desire to have two players hooked up.

If you chose "other" please put that number in your reply.

Other! I don't think there is a price-point yet for 95% of the market. Sure, $199 sounds good to a bunch of audio-vidiots like us. However, the public is so disconnected from all things HD....they have no desire or intent yet. That's gonna take time and plenty of HD football and networks suppourting HD all the way, IMO.

The public is not going to buy a $199 HD player and go down to Circus City and buy $35 discs..... :eek: This ain't the twilight zone. $35 discs is as bad a marketing ploy as I can imagine....well, I could bid $40.... ;)

....no magic price-point yet.

If we could just get Monster to bundle an HD DVD player with those $150 HDMI cables:D

If we could just get Monster to bundle an HD DVD player with those $150 HDMI cables:D

LOL, you got me with that one!:D

I love it. You buy a $30 DVD player an then the guy says you need a $150 HDMI cable for it!

As for the topic. When HDM player prices are competitive with the upconverters, then Katie bar the door!

I said $99; but honestly it is the format "war" that is probably keeping more people on the sidelines (like myself) than the price. Heck the price of an A-2 is more than comfortable with me. I have no desire to have two players hooked up.

Yeah, but if an HDM player is the same price as an upconverter, why not get it? It upconverts too AND you can watch an occasional HD movie!

Another poll about this???

Players below $300 with discs below $15 or lower during 1st week sales.

If discs aren't there, it won't matter what the player's price is. Consumers aren't stupid and with all the CE makers subsidizing their players (toshiba and the BDA), it's doing neither side any good to sell players without the players actually being used for more than just dvd upconversion.

Imagine what the high def sales of 300 would have been if it had been $15 vs $23 vs $27. Oh wait, I remember what the sales were.

DVD vs Blu-ray vs HD DVD, respectively.

How about when you can go to Walmart and buy an HD movie for less than a Progressive-Scan DVD-R/-RW Recorder with HD Upconversion. The player is a DVD recorder with HD upconversion!!

Samsung Progressive-Scan DVD-R/-RW Recorder with HD Upconversion ($29.99) (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=7726883&type=product&id=1140391964252)

300 - HD-DVD ($34.99) (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8381636&type=product&id=1653420)

Ouch:eek:

I can't exactly put my finger on it, but there is something wrong with this picture.

Exactly what do you think is the "Magic" price point for HDM players that will convince the average consumer to step into the HD media market?

OK, so it probably isn't as simple as a price point, not everyone has an HD display, there's a format war on, the economy stupid, etc.. Given all that, for some reason I felt like going with $150, although I agree with PopcornReady, $149 just sounds better. :p Maybe I should have chosen other.... :confused:

HDTV would never have caught on without flat panel displays. Consider this: Japan introduced consumer HD broadcasts and televisions over a decade ago, though it never caught on with HD CRTs. But the moment flat panel TVs are introduced... BOOM! Suddenly people started buying.

Actually, are you sure it was a switch to flat panel displays and not the introduction of digital HD broadcasts? Because ten years ago, Japan only had an analog HD system (MUSE/Hi-Vision).
Commercial High-Definition television was first developed by Nippon Hōsō Kyōkai, and was unveiled in 1969.[4] However, the system did not become mainstream until the late 1990s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-definition_television#History

Japanese terrestrial broadcasting of HD via ISDB-T started in December 1, 2003 in the Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya metropolitan areas of Japan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_digital_television_deployments_by_country#Japan

And if you think 1969 is a long time ago in terms of even thinking about HDTV, take a look at this clip of Philo T. Farnsworth from 1957 (the interesting stuff starts at about 6:05):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKM4MNrB25o

Exactly what do you think is the "Magic" price point for HDM players that will convince the average consumer to step into the HD media market?

If you chose "other" please put that number in your reply.

free

free

So, everyone on this thread should give away 10 HD players on Christmas, brilliant!.....;)

Reguardless of what it is, HD DVD will hit it first.

everybody talks about the price point for the machines but i think the biggest problem for either format is the price of the movies. the price of the player is a one time expense but the movies are a continuing expence. with list prices at $40 to 50 you really have to think about buying any movie. and while some movies look fantastic in hd many are not any better than dvd on a upconverting player

Quote "Reguardless of what it is, HD DVD will hit it first."

Agreed,.. it's getting hard to move those players at the already low prices. I get the impression they are lowering the prices so they don't have to pay to recycle them when it's over.

everybody talks about the price point for the machines but i think the biggest problem for either format is the price of the movies. the price of the player is a one time expense but the movies are a continuing expence. with list prices at $40 to 50 you really have to think about buying any movie. and while some movies look fantastic in hd many are not any better than dvd on a upconverting player

The highest-priced disc I've seen at a retail store was a Warner Combo HD-DVD at Busted Buy for $37.99 . There's just way too many $35 discs out there in retail-land....I was in the HD isle at Busted Buy recently and a couple stepped in there with me. Several times the woman pulled out a disc, and held it up and pointed at the $34.99 so her man friend could see. She made faces when she'd look at those prices, shocked and weird faces. The couple never said a word to each other. I bet they didn't buy a player...???

everybody talks about the price point for the machines but i think the biggest problem for either format is the price of the movies. the price of the player is a one time expense but the movies are a continuing expence. with list prices at $40 to 50 you really have to think about buying any movie. and while some movies look fantastic in hd many are not any better than dvd on a upconverting player

Why buy the movies when you can rent them? Oh that's right . . BD owners don't rent movies. . . . at least according to David Bishop - big time exec at Sony who recently said; "Rental revenues total less than 10% of BD's total revenue."

So they enlisted Rentrak to help them and just signed a revenue sharing agreement with Hastings - a Texas based media seller/renter.

There are over 3 million accounts in both BBI and NF - BOTH offer HD movies for rent - same price as SD movies in fact.

If anyone thinks that a low priced player is going to fail . . than how in the world can you justify a high priced one?:confused:

I looked at that Farnsworth video. Fascinating, he foretold HD and memory files! I'm not sure if he knew about computer files. But he kind of described it.

HDM discs need to hit 19.99 regular pricing. Then some strong growth will happen.

Some are $19.99 regular price.

(At least some Blu Ray, but I think it's true for both.)

You are not getting it. The high price of the titles is what is holding back HD Media adoption.

In order to make use of HD Media, you first need a HDTV which costs money. People are not going to invest in HD Media until the price of the titles come down because the player is a one time fixed cost while software is an ongoing one.

This thread shows how out of touch the HD DVD promotion group and aficionados on AVS are with the market.

Look at the title sales numbers. Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD because the majority of the HD DVD market can barely afford that "cheap" hardware from Toshiba let alone being able to consistently buy HD DVD/HD DVD combo titles. To add to this, Blu-ray titles are often priced below their HD DVD counterparts at B&M stores.

I also believe that recordable media is far more of a consideration to adopters than HD DVD supporter claim it is.

You are not getting it. The high price of the titles is what is holding back HD Media adoption.

How can you make that claim when you yourself go on to say:

In order to make use of HD Media, you first need a HDTV which costs money.

The mass adoption of HDM may take longer than we think simply because not everyone has an HD display. You didn't need to rush out and get an EDTV to realize the benefits of DVD (at least, most didn't).

This thread shows how out of touch the HD DVD promotion group and aficionados on AVS are with the market.

Care to provide an argument for that?

I also believe that recordable media is far more of a consideration to adopters than HD DVD supporter claim it is.

Do you mean for playback on SAPs only, or are you including data storage?

The mass adoption of HDM may take longer than we think simply because not everyone has an HD display. You didn't need to rush out and get an EDTV to realize the benefits of DVD (at least, most didn't).

What is your point exactly? Both blu-ray and HD DVD require the user to have an HDTV of some sort with a minimum of 720p resolution but ideally 1080p to take full advantage of the HD in general. The only thing I would take from that is that anyone willing to spend a little extra for 1080p resolution will also not mind spending a bit more for blu-ray. Even if they did buy an HD DVD capable player, it would probably be capable of 1080p which would put in in the same range as a blu-ray player anyway.

My Blu-ray collection has a MSRP several times the cost of the average blu-ray player. Even my HD DVD collection cost more than the player itself.

Care to provide an argument for that?

An argument for what? This thread is an argument for that. The numerous threads here about the same thing are arguments for it. Toshiba's emphasis of standalone sales are arguments for it.

Do you mean for playback on SAPs only, or are you including data storage?
Adoption of both applications will drive down the cost of burners and recordable media.

What is your point exactly? Both blu-ray and HD DVD require the user to have an HDTV of some sort with a minimum of 720p resolution but ideally 1080p to take full advantage of the HD in general. The only thing I would take from that is that anyone willing to spend a little extra for 1080p resolution will also not mind spending a bit more for blu-ray. Even if they did buy an HD DVD capable player, it would probably be capable of 1080p which would put in in the same range as a blu-ray player anyway.


However, the people millions who bought the 720p TVs over the past five years are far more likely to be willing to get into HD media if there is a player at a price closer to that of a standard upconverting one. Even if that player only outputs to 1080i and 720p.

Thus the concept of a "magic" price.

For myself, the magic price is $150 as it is for many of my friends, for a few I've spoken to though it is in fact $100, at least so long as a format war is going on.

None of us (even the couple who recently purchased 1080p displays) are willing to shell out $250-$500 for a player at all which tends to weaken the argument that:

The only thing I would take from that is that anyone willing to spend a little extra for 1080p resolution will also not mind spending a bit more for blu-ray.

Because the format war and potential for obsolescence of either format makes people far less inclined to spend big money while less expensive purchases can be more easily justified.

The problem is not the player price,but the software price.
I guess you can make the sacrifice and save the money for an expensive player but feel less compelled to pay twice the price of a regular dvd (which also has more extra features). The crappy (imo) selection of films also doesn't really help. I know hd is great for explosions but is it too much to ask for something a bit more consistent ? If only every studio were like Warner (kubrick collection and blade runner are almost a good reason to upgrade).
And let's not forget a good 1080p Lcd is still quite expensive.
I'm afraid hd is too much dependent on the home theater equipment,so the low price of the player might just convince the casual hd enthusiast.

Until there's a format that all studios use and will clearly not abandon, the magic price is less than zero....

ken

What is your point exactly? Both blu-ray and HD DVD require the user to have an HDTV of some sort with a minimum of 720p resolution but ideally 1080p to take full advantage of the HD in general. The only thing I would take from that is that anyone willing to spend a little extra for 1080p resolution will also not mind spending a bit more for blu-ray. Even if they did buy an HD DVD capable player, it would probably be capable of 1080p which would put in in the same range as a blu-ray player anyway.

I realize the very idea of low priced players can be seen as provocative to BD supporters, but please let's not turn this into yet another war thread. My point was that while your initial statement that high HDM software prices were the biggest impediment to rapid HDM adoption, you then went on to somewhat contradict that by saying that not everyone has an HDTV. I not only went on to underscore your second point, but to elaborate on the differences between the hurdles faced by HDM as compared to DVD.

My Blu-ray collection has a MSRP several times the cost of the average blu-ray player. Even my HD DVD collection cost more than the player itself.

So, the high cost of HDM media didn't stop you, apparently. Me either. Let's also not forget about renting (which was actually my plan/rationalization initially, but we all know how that goes :o ).

An argument for what? This thread is an argument for that. The numerous threads here about the same thing are arguments for it. Toshiba's emphasis of standalone sales are arguments for it.

Yeah, I didn't think so. ;)

As to that last statement about Toshiba:

Sony...sorry, the BDA can't emphasize standalone players because the the PS3 makes up the lion's share of the BD user base. The fact that the PS3 is also a game console just muddies the waters, since while an HDTV is pretty much requisite to fully enjoy HDM, it isn't a prerequisite for gaming (although it doesn't hurt, either). Undoubtedly there are many PS3s out there not connected to HDTVs and possibly even some that are that are primarily or only used for gaming. Now, if the BDA were to acknowledge this fact, they could argue that Blu-ray Disc's attach rate really isn't as bad as claimed. However, they will likely never do this because to do so is to admit that attachment rates actually matter, which only strengthens Toshiba's position. Never let the facts get in the way of your argument. ;)

The usage of standalone players is far less ambiguous: they're for movies.

The problem is not the player price,but the software price.
I guess you can make the sacrifice and save the money for an expensive player but feel less compelled to pay twice the price of a regular dvd (which also has more extra features). The crappy (imo) selection of films also doesn't really help. I know hd is great for explosions but is it too much to ask for something a bit more consistent ? If only every studio were like Warner (kubrick collection and blade runner are almost a good reason to upgrade).
And let's not forget a good 1080p Lcd is still quite expensive.
I'm afraid hd is too much dependent on the home theater equipment,so the low price of the player might just convince the casual hd enthusiast.

Yes and no, many of the people who would buy lower cost HD players would in fact probably rent far more software than purchase it.

However, they would still likely purchase some titles and would also begin receiving other media as gifts from friends and relatives once it was known that they had a new HD player.

While this may mean far fewer media purchases per customer than what is typical from owners who post to these forums, the fewer sales per customer would be ultimately be offset by the greater number of owners.

Look at it this way, there are a huge number of people out there who purchased a PS3 who do not buy any HD media at all (or very little). Nevertheless, since Blu stand alone unit sales are lower than that of HD units, it is the sales to those same PS3 owners which are giving the Blu camp the edge in the Nielsen's each week.

Now expand the same thinking to say, 20 million owners of inexpensive HD players and you should see media sales begin to hit the kind of numbers the industry will be comfortable with. Especially as it is upon the total volume of unit sales that the major rental companies base their orders upon.

This relates to what I said in my post. If the rental stores don't have the content, then free players are overpriced.

Most people do not or will not buy 20.00 plus movies when their monthly rental fee is 20.00 or less a month.

I disagree with this. Yes, I do think that HD movie prices are too high and limiting adoption of either format, and limiting how many movies people will buy also. For probably 60% of the people out there the HD movie prices even limits buying a HD player at this point too.

What I disagree with is that people WILL buy one if the price is low enough. TRY to find someone who WOULDN'T take a HD DVD player for free with no cash outlay to get it. I doubt even the most fanatical BD fan would take it for free. Even people without a HDTV would take it for free and use it for a regular SD DVD player until HD would be useful.

Realistically, I think there are several "magic" price points for adoption of HD players. Those numbers are lower than they were back when SD DVD players came out because there was no "Chinese Connection" to speak of back then. People expect $500.00 computers and $50.00 SD DVD players now. Inflation means nothing or else $1,000.00 would be fairly cheap figuring in inflation compared to the early SD DVD players back in 1997. Heck, house prices now are more than DOUBLE what they were back in 3/1997.

I think there will be a 10 fold increase in HD player sales once they go under 150.00, and another 10 fold increase in HD player sales of that figure once they are under $100.00.

The best way to assure that HD media does not become niche, is to migrate everyone over to HD by attrition. Have at least ONE model HD player that is under $100.00 as fast as possible or even under $75.00 would be even better, and gradually phase out SD DVD players when this happens.

Of course HD discs will have to drop to current new release SD DVD prices for people in large volumes to by HD over SD movies.

That is my 2 cents anyway.

I disagree with this. Yes, I do think that HD movie prices are too high and limiting adoption of either format, and limiting how many movies people will buy also. For probably 60% of the people out there the HD movie prices even limits buying a HD player at this point too.

What I disagree with is that people WILL buy one if the price is low enough. TRY to find someone who WOULDN'T take a HD DVD player for free with no cash outlay to get it. I doubt even the most fanatical BD fan would take it for free. Even people without a HDTV would take it for free and use it for a regular SD DVD player until HD would be useful.

Realistically, I think there are several "magic" price points for adoption of HD players. Those numbers are lower than they were back when SD DVD players came out because there was no "Chinese Connection" to speak of back then. People expect $500.00 computers and $50.00 SD DVD players now. Inflation means nothing or else $1,000.00 would be fairly cheap figuring in inflation compared to the early SD DVD players back in 1997. Heck, house prices now are more than DOUBLE what they were back in 3/1997.

I think there will be a 10 fold increase in HD player sales once they go under 150.00, and another 10 fold increase in HD player sales of that figure once they are under $100.00.

The best way to assure that HD media does not become niche, is to migrate everyone over to HD by attrition. Have at least ONE model HD player that is under $100.00 as fast as possible or even under $75.00 would be even better, and gradually phase out SD DVD players when this happens.

Of course HD discs will have to drop to current new release SD DVD prices for people in large volumes to by HD over SD movies.

That is my 2 cents anyway.
Replace "HD player" with risk-free "Dual format HD player" and I would be in complete agreement.

Replace "HD player" with risk-free "Dual format HD player" and I would be in complete agreement.

I think we are talking 3-4 years before we see dual format HD players at those price points. I wish it wasn't so, but the current mfg seem to be currently adding up the cost of both players and pricing their DF HD players at that price point. I do not believe that the mfg costs are double so they want a premium price and think people will pay it to only have ONE HD player.

That kind of pricing will not sell them to the mass market IMO. They need to work prices like the DVD +R/-R burner pricing model to truly get everyone to jump in.

Well, the only way I see the masses paying a premium over DVD players for HDM player is if it plays HD movies from all studios. This will happen when either one format wins or both formats win and dual format players are available. It could be a long time.

Well, the only way I see the masses paying a premium over DVD players for HDM player is if it plays HD movies from all studios. This will happen when either one format wins or both formats win and dual format players are available. It could be a long time.

Why? They would get all of one formats movies in HD and still be able to upscale better than most SD upscalers at little or no extra cost. When they get down to under $150.00. They are only getting SD now, so why for almost no additional cost would they just say I do not even want half my movies in HD.

What am I missing?

I may buy one under $100 if it does 1080p and those rumor-ed TL51 discs.

Wouldn't be able to turn that down assuming it's quality gear (though not likely at that price.)

-Brian

However, the people millions who bought the 720p TVs over the past five years are far more likely to be willing to get into HD media if there is a player at a price closer to that of a standard upconverting one. Even if that player only outputs to 1080i and 720p.

Thus the concept of a "magic" price.

For myself, the magic price is $150 as it is for many of my friends, for a few I've spoken to though it is in fact $100, at least so long as a format war is going on.

None of us (even the couple who recently purchased 1080p displays) are willing to shell out $250-$500 for a player at all which tends to weaken the argument that:



Because the format war and potential for obsolescence of either format makes people far less inclined to spend big money while less expensive purchases can be more easily justified.


I wonder if your price point (and this poll) includes movies... i mean would you rather pay $150 and no free movies or $230 and 7 free movies or the occasional $199 and free movies?

I agree with rest...when I get an HDTV price will be an option and so too will it be on HD DVD

There is no "magic" price point when there are two competing formats, one of which is likely (in consumer minds) to die. Until that issue is resolved, normal people will largely sit on the sidelines, happy with HD sports and upconverted DVDs.

Yes. And isn't it too much to ask consumers to purchase 2 CE units, that do exactly the same thing (play movies), in order to watch all HDM content?

If a dual format player come down to $100, then yes, that'd do it. The format war could still go on for years, but then the consumers wouldn't have to care one bit.

Why? They would get all of one formats movies in HD and still be able to upscale better than most SD upscalers at little or no extra cost. When they get down to under $150.00. They are only getting SD now, so why for almost no additional cost would they just say I do not even want half my movies in HD.

What am I missing?
Customers are price sensitive and there are plenty of other upgrades available besides HD players. For example, today they can get a brand name upscaling DVD-recorder from Walmart.

Samsung Progressive-Scan DVD-R/-RW Recorder with HD Upconversion ($29.99) (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=7726883&type=product&id=1140391964252)

I don't know. Are people more interested in recording or HD player? And for $29:eek: And they both do 1080i over HDMI, so why how can the the HDM player be better? Let me think I can either get an upscaling player for $29 or spend six times as much on an HD player that could be obsolete in a year.:(

Or maybe they have heard a friends surround sound system. How about this?

Insignia® 200W 5.1-Ch. Home Theater System with DVD/CD/MP3 Player (Sale: $93.49) (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=8254337&type=product&id=1169512522336)

A lot of the problem is education. Are people going to do the research to find that HD players even do DVD upscaling? And don't most people get their education from the mass media. There has been nothing but negative FUD regarding HDM from the beginning.

OK. Maybe they get their education at the store. I think that places like Target are killing HDM. They barely carry any titles and what they carry is outrageously expensive. Even if people generally don't buy their own movies, they have to wonder how this new format is going to be successful at the outrageous prices. How many people realize that the they get HD on Netflix or Blockbuster?

I just don't see people spending the kind of money required to enter HDM given the perceived obsolescence risk.

I think that places like Target are killing HDM. They barely carry any titles and what they carry is outrageously expensive. Even if people generally don't buy their own movies, they have to wonder how this new format is going to be successful at the outrageous prices. How many people realize that the they get HD on Netflix or Blockbuster?

I just don't see people spending the kind of money required to enter HDM given the perceived obsolescence risk.

The point of the thread is to ask: at what point is it not a risk?

I have a problem with two common objections. First that stores should stock more titles and with higher quantities. People are not seeing how few disks are being sold. There is a thread that shows the sales figures for the Paramount BD releases. MI:2 had sold ~700 copies since inception. That translates to 14/state over 8 months. I would instantly fire anyone in charge of inventory if they ordered a single copy of this title. Shelf space is expensive and if you get it you had better sell.

The second objection people throw out there is that disks are too expensive. Sony is currently subsidizing ~80%+ of the cost of replication. There are extremely substantial start-up costs to make a HDM title and with virtually no sales they are getting KILLED. The only reason they are so CHEAP right now is that the burden of cost for the movies is not being placed on the consumers shoulders.

Sony is currently subsidizing ~80%+ of the cost of replication.
Source?

The point of the thread is to ask: at what point is it not a risk?

As long as there is a format war, which means risk, I can't imagine a lot of people paying more than 50% more for an HDM player over DVD. Remove the risk or provide a dual format player and then quite a few people will pay up to 100% more. That being said, I do have a hard time imagining a $60 dual format player any time soon though. And the format war...:confused:

I wonder if your price point (and this poll) includes movies... i mean would you rather pay $150 and no free movies or $230 and 7 free movies or the occasional $199 and free movies?

I agree with rest...when I get an HDTV price will be an option and so too will it be on HD DVD

For me it's $150 for the player alone as I have not been thrilled by the titles offered in the mail away, free movie promotions.

However, I might be willing to pay more if I was given the option to pick any five movies of my choice in the store.

But since that isn't the offer, I'd be willing to just pay $150 for a player and spend some additional $$$ on the movies I like instead.

I may buy one under $100 if it does 1080p and those rumor-ed TL51 discs.

Wouldn't be able to turn that down assuming it's quality gear (though not likely at that price.)

-Brian

I know what you mean. I am waiting for a BD standalone player that is actually a complete spec player like HD DVD has been seen launch. I just cannot find one at ANY price. Hopefully BD can actually get all these profiles to work someday. It appears they cannot as of yet or else they would have made them.

I also refuse to buy a BD player that doesn't have the HD audio decoders built-in as well as a Profile 2.0 spec. HD DVD has them, why can't BD players all have them since they already cost twice the money for BD players that may not even play the newer 1.1/2.0 interactive movies when they come out.

Customers are price sensitive and there are plenty of other upgrades available besides HD players. For example, today they can get a brand name upscaling DVD-recorder from Walmart.

Samsung Progressive-Scan DVD-R/-RW Recorder with HD Upconversion ($29.99) (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=7726883&type=product&id=1140391964252)

I don't know. Are people more interested in recording or HD player? And for $29:eek: And they both do 1080i over HDMI, so why how can the the HDM player be better? Let me think I can either get an upscaling player for $29 or spend six times as much on an HD player that could be obsolete in a year.:(


I believe this price at Walmart is a mistake. A google search makes me think that the price is more likely $129 rather than $29. Here is cnet's review.
http://reviews.cnet.com/dvd-recorders/samsung-dvd-r135-dvd/4505-9141_7-31778396.html

The link from Miata is to bestbuy not Walmart anyway, and it is listed as "coming soon".

I think it IS a mistake in the listed price and will not sell for that $29.99 price. The review at cNet was done on 11/10/06. That is 11 months ago, and it got a bad review too.

Did this ever come to market?