Nielsen Prediction Thread for 10/5 (Predictions due Wednesday 10/3!)

This thread is only for posting your predictions. This is the ninth week I am tracking people's predictions. The first eight weeks have been fantastic and I hope it keeps going that well.

The Nielsen numbers are a week delayed. In other words, the numbers that come out on October 3rd will be for the period from September 24-Seprember 30. Tuesday's releases (October 2) will not factor into the next set of numbers we get.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

This thread is not for the discussion of math, the advantages or disadvantages of either format, an analysis of the Nielsen numbers, any other source of sales figures (unless they are a reason you are making your prediction) or any insults.

I will post my prediction around 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. My prediction marks the end of the entry period. You may change your prediction any time up until then.

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

Nielsen contest entries for 10/05/2007

NAME BD:HD
ToddUGA 69:31
Mel2 68:32
ptysell 68:32
wreckshop 67:33
Jim Morrison 67:33
ts.enigma 67:33
ChristopherB 67:33
opfreak 66:34
dobyblue 66:34
ottscay 66:34
Blu-Devil 66:34
Rking4441 65:35
FortySix&2 65:35
LynxFX 65:35
RDarrylR 65:35
samcan07 65:35
Brian Hampton 65:35
Jagt Mirage 65:35
CRFTony 64:36
phansson 64:36
MarekM 64:36
Aresca 64:36
spacejamz 64:36
lomax 64:36
manikin 64:36
Phloyd 64:36
eightninesuited 64:36
Baccusboy 64:36
Enigma 64:36
donricouga 64:36
JAC6 64:36
edgebsl 64:36
UxiSXRD 63:37
soremekun 63:37
GeorgeLV 63:37
Reylas 63:37
Woodshed 63:37
oregoncalfroper 63:37
Winn 62:38
jkwest 62:38
frasersean 62:38
raaj 62:38
fitprod 62:38
Azumi 62:38
boomster 62:38
JetJock3315 62:38
Kable 62:38
crimsona 62:38
MichaelHDDVD 62:38
Kemet 62:38
hammie34 62:38
dumbswede 62:38
habscolts 62:38
trondmm 62:38
patrick99 62:38
user friendly 61:39
shamus 61:39
Will d s 61:39
extra_hc 61:39
todrigo 61:39
ICBM99 61:39
Sketcha 61:39
MASrules 61:39
dad1153 61:39
Ronin_R6 61:39
digicam95 61:39
nakedeye 61:39
mswoods1 61:39
TNO821 61:39
user4avsforum 60:40
briankmonkey 60:40
Merrick97 60:40
Rastor 60:40
neillkirn 60:40
BuGsArEtAsTy 60:40
iontyre 60:40
wipron 60:40
theone2 60:40
Lee Stewart 60:40
caesartheboxer 60:40
Wet1 60:40
JeffY 60:40
aaronwt 60:40
george king 60:40
geko29 60:40
huntaar 60:40
tonngo0 60:40
Jishywa 59:41
Kosty 59:41
kkozma 59:41
tahustvedt 59:41
rdjam 59:41
chirpie 59:41
Jonto81 59:41
David Scott 59:41
Everdog 59:41
Neo1965 59:41
CochiseGuy 59:41
Robert Spalding 59:41
vfquest 58:42
Jeff Flowerday 58:42
PopcornReady 58:42
allargon 58:42
xradman 58:42
theflux 58:42
Raxel 58:42
coolhand 58:42
TPigeon2006 58:42
gand41f 58:42
Grubert 58:42
assayer 58:42
cdzie1 58:42
badandy642 58:42
Noggin1980 58:42
bigdaveman 58:42
luclin999 58:42
mcgarnagle 58:42
alfbinet 57:43
GmanAVS 57:43
David F 57:43
darinp2 57:43
online 57:43
mlankton 57:43
teacher_man99 57:43
Christ_TC 57:43
Poolrad 56:44
hd nOOb 55:45
krylonone 55:45
Vov76 55:45
stefanpaulmayer 55:45
SGRSBSKIER 54:46
WayneL 53:47
Icemage 53:47
Rooper 50:50
edo9125 49:51
plazman 48:52
Shmack 45:55



New Releases included in this weeks numbers:

HD DVD:
Knocked Up (Universal)
Evening (Universal)
Freedom: 2 (Bandai Visual)
The Getaway (1994) (Universal)
Next (Paramount)
Patch Adams (Universal)
Gods and Generals (Warner)
Gothika (Warner)
The Wild Bunch (Warner)
Wyatt Earp (Warner)

Blu Ray
Black Book (Sony)
Underworld (Sony)
Tekkonkinkreet (Sony)
Memoirs of a Geisha (Sony)
Gods and Generals (Warner)
Gothika (Warner)
The Wild Bunch (Warner)
Wyatt Earp (Warner)

Nielsen contest results for 09/28/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 63:37

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
-diVe- 63:37 1 0.00
patrick99 63:37 1 0.00
ToddUGA 63:37 1 0.00
TNO821 63:37 3 0.33
Numanoid101 62:38 2 0.50
trondmm 63:37 4 0.75
CochiseGuy 63:37 3 1.00
mswoods1 63:37 3 1.00
dumbswede 63:37 2 1.00
habscolts 62:38 1 1.00
nakedeye 62:38 5 1.20
huntaar 62:38 3 1.33
Noggin1980 62:38 4 1.50
JAC6 62:38 2 1.50
badandy642 62:38 3 1.67
donricouga 62:38 7 1.71
hammie34 60:40 8 1.75
assayer 63:37 4 1.75
cdzie1 60:40 4 1.75
Enigma 62:38 8 1.88
geko29 62:38 8 1.88
Everdog 63:37 8 2.00
Neo1965 62:38 8 2.00
MichaelHDDVD 61:39 8 2.00
aaronwt 59:41 8 2.00
Grubert 65:35 6 2.00
Ronin_R6 63:37 5 2.00
digicam95 65:35 3 2.00
Paul Cordingley 59:41 3 2.00
george king 60:40 2 2.00
Kemet 61:39 1 2.00
dad1153 63:37 8 2.13
gand41f 62:38 7 2.14
JeffY 63:37 6 2.17
Icemage 64:36 8 2.25
MASrules 63:37 8 2.25
David Scott 60:40 8 2.25
Wet1 63:37 7 2.29
Blu-Devil 62:38 7 2.29
samcan07 63:37 3 2.33
caesartheboxer 59:41 3 2.33
bboisvert 62:38 8 2.38
Baccusboy 62:38 5 2.40
Sketcha 63:37 8 2.50
Woodshed 65:35 6 2.50
teacher_man99 67:33 4 2.50
mlankton 60:40 4 2.50
Technicolor 59:41 4 2.50
zalahmar 59:41 2 2.50
Lee Stewart 59:41 7 2.57
darinp2 62:38 8 2.63
online 60:40 8 2.63
edo9125 63:37 7 2.71
crimsona 62:38 7 2.71
eightninesuited 61:39 8 2.75
stefanpaulmayer 61:39 6 2.83
GmanAVS 57:43 7 2.86
Reylas 61:39 8 2.88
ottscay 64:36 7 3.00
ICBM99 61:39 6 3.00
plazman 57:43 5 3.00
boomster 62:38 4 3.00
JetJock3315 60:40 2 3.00
wipron 60:40 2 3.00
Kable 59:41 2 3.00
Poolrad 59:41 2 3.00
theone2 60:40 1 3.00
TPigeon2006 63:37 8 3.13
todrigo 63:37 6 3.17
iontyre 61:39 5 3.20
BuGsArEtAsTy 60:40 5 3.20
tgraphics 58:42 5 3.20
RDarrylR 62:38 4 3.25
chirpie 60:40 4 3.25
Jonto81 59:41 4 3.25
Topweasel 59:41 6 3.33
neillkirn 69:31 3 3.33
jhinesjr 60:40 3 3.33
WayneL 58:42 5 3.40
extra_hc 62:38 7 3.43
Will d s 60:40 4 3.50
dobyblue 67:33 2 3.50
shamus 63:37 7 3.57
Raxel 59:41 7 3.57
Azumi 65:35 8 3.63
Phloyd 64:36 3 3.67
fitprod 64:36 7 3.71
GeorgeLV 64:36 7 3.71
LynxFX 65:35 8 3.75
theflux 65:35 8 3.75
lomax 65:35 8 3.88
manikin 65:35 8 3.88
rdjam 62:38 8 3.88
Rastor 58:42 8 3.88
spacejamz 64:36 7 4.00
soremekun 63:37 7 4.00
Merrick97 65:35 2 4.00
xradman 58:42 2 4.00
FortySix&2 67:33 1 4.00
ts.enigma 67:33 1 4.00
tahustvedt 59:41 1 4.00
Tolstoi 59:41 1 4.00
allargon 62:38 7 4.14
Jim Morrison 64:36 6 4.17
ack_bk 65:35 4 4.25
UxiSXRD 66:34 8 4.38
anotheraviator 60:40 5 4.40
HiddenDepth 69:31 8 4.50
opfreak 66:34 6 4.50
Hockeytown Fan 59:41 2 4.50
raaj 64:36 3 4.67
Vov76 61:39 4 4.75
wreckshop 68:32 7 4.86
SGRSBSKIER 67:33 3 5.00
alfbinet 57:43 2 5.00
kkozma 56:44 2 5.00
Aresca 68:32 1 5.00
user friendly 68:32 1 5.00
heatfuego 58:42 1 5.00
PopcornReady 58:42 1 5.00
MarekM 67:33 8 5.25
briankmonkey 60:40 8 5.25
nfinity 58:42 6 5.33
Kosty 57:43 8 5.50
jkwest 68:32 6 5.50
Jishywa 67:33 3 5.67
phansson 66:34 3 5.67
user4avsforum 58:42 4 5.75
Winn 74:26 8 5.88
Jeff Flowerday 57:43 1 6.00
CRFTony 68:32 3 6.33
ptysell 70:30 3 7.00
vfquest 72:28 3 7.67
krylonone 55:45 4 7.75
hd mOOb 55:45 1 8.00
Rking4441 55:45 1 8.00
Xylon 55:45 1 8.00
rover2002 55:45 5 9.60
Shmack 50:50 7 13.71



Perfect Picks:

3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
trondmm (6,7,8)

2
BrynRhys (3,4)
GmanAVS (4,5)
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
MASrules (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)

1
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
TPigeon2006 (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
dumbswede (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
ToddUGA (8)
iontyre (7)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
aaronwt (6)
Grubert (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
gand41f (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)[/code]




Weekly Stats


Week # of Biggest Miss
# Guesses Perfect High Low
1 74 3 13 12
2 90 4 22 8
3 93 10 4 16
4 98 6 13 13*
5 107 3 14 16
6 122 11 10 15
7 131 14 11 16
8 139 22 11 13

*outrageous guess ignored

(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion. The mods made it clear that going OT in the new thread would not be tolerated. The game is currently getting over 90 entries per week. Those 90 posts would clutter up the main Nielsen thread.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) publishes the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

5- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVD, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

6- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert has confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

7- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).

Drat! you fixed it! There goes my secret advantage.

62:38 for me

53:47 no BD buy-a-thon advantage this week

57:43

64:36 favoring Blu

68:32. underworld will slaughter knocked up and the full brunt of smallville and we are marshall BD will be felt because stores actually have them now.

69:31

Can't believe I picked the correct ratio last week on my very first try. :)

64:36

well in go for 64:36 blu-ray

59:41 - Bluray had a little "spike" gain of 2% last week, due to more titles and a "powerbuy" on Bluray .com

So that's history now, and I expect a 3% drop for Bluray again this week.

62:38

58:42 again this week. I personally bought 3 Blu-ray titles to 8 on HD DVD this week.

51:49 HD DVD

Knocked Up, Next and Evening are all Day & Date titles, most of the other release are on both formats. Underworld should do well but its been on dvd for 4 years already, Black Book is a very good movie but there isnt a wide audience for Foreign Films (The Lives of Other & Volver havent done well in sales on Blu-ray).

63/37 Br

64/36
Blu Ray

58 Blu/ 42 HD

63-37 Bd

60/40

NEXT and Knocked Up are reasonably strong day and dates. NEXT wasn't that well received, and Knocked Up will probably suffer from the same problem that all comedies have on hi def, but that won't stop them from being strong sellers compared to the competition on release day.

BD 53 : HD 47

EDIT: Has Hell frozen over? Lee Stewart predicts a higher Blu-ray figure than I do...

58:42

Knocked Up and Next will beat a movie in Dutch and an obscure anime.

60:40

Br 62/38 Hd

57:43

bd-hd
60-40

63:37

Winn, you are awesome!

59:41

57 : 43

Halo 3 will throw all the numbers off. HD-DVD will lose add-on buyers. Many PS3 gamers also own Xbox360's.

I say 58:42 in favor of Blu-Ray this week.

59:41 (again)

62:38

I'll go 56 BD: 44 HD

60:40

59 : 41
Br : Hd

65:35

64:36

I'll go 60:40

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/7308/bluraypercentofweeklyhizn9.png

68:32

66:34

The buyout had no significant effect; disk sales are small but not so small that a hundred people buying an extra disk can affect the numbers.

58:42

This is a tough call this week. It appears BD is still on the rise from the hit it took from Paramount, on the other hand, content is king and HD-DVD has the advantage this week...

61:39

57:43

58:42

Two 'new releases' for HDDVD (knocked up/NeXt) versus a bunch of catalog titles. Yet BD maintains its 2:1 ratio.....

Only 41 entries so far. Slow start. Pick up the pace people, or I will be sending out a LOT of reminders tomorrow night.

64:36 here for Blu-ray.

64:36

Blu lead

62:38

62:38

I'll have a go with 57:43

55:45 Bd

58:42

61/39

64: 36

59:41 Bd

61:39

61:39

58:42

65:35 Bd

55:45

60:40

67:33

48:52, Hd Dvd.

Blu 61-39

58-42

58:42 for Blue Ray

60:40

Lots more great titles for Bluray this week. I say 64:36

66:34 Bd

Bd:hd
58:42

67:33 Bd

62:38 Blu-ray

fitprod

57:43

--Darin

63:37

60:40 Knocked Up will sell suprisingly well

64:36 Bd

Marek

61:39

72. We are definitely going slow.

Tough week to predict. It depends whether Knocked Up is a big hit, if Troy has a staying power, and also if the number of new releases shake the market from its lethargy...

I'm going to try 62:38 for BD.

(edit: downgraded my 1st prediction from 64:36)

58:42

62:38

64:36

59:41 Bd:hd

60:40

I'll try the same numbers again... Maybe I'll get it right this time.

3 : 2

62:38

64:36

61:39

61:39

57:43 Bd

61:39

67:33 Bd

55:45 Blu-ray:HD DVD

BD:HD
58:42

Partly because ...
Knocked Up (Universal) will surprise us in HD DVD sales;
Evening (Universal) is actually in the stores;
Next (Paramount) has attracted some good chatter.

And partly because ...
Blu-ray releases this week are a tad esoteric and the joint Warner releases don't give either side an edge.

67:33

62:38 again

65 / 35

58:42

60:40

62/38

65:35

55:45

60:40

58:42
Bd Hd

62:38

60:40

66:34

63-37

65:35 for Blu-ray

66:34

62:38
bd:hd

59:41

Bd:hd

64:36

I have no idea what I'm doing, but I'll put it as:

50:50

I mean if HD DVD is going to do anything, this is the week. Even though Next made no money at the box office and Evening is a quasi-independent movie, it still has three day and date releases to two for Blu Ray (both of which are foreign films). Given the lackluster HD sales of late, these titles have to be able to sway the market some from the standard 60:40 or so catalog base.

62:38 Bd


*************************************************
EDIT 1:47pm 10-02-07

61:39 BD

*************************************************

61:39

61:39
BD:HD

But what do I know? :D

62:38

Thanks for doing this Winn!

63:37

60 / 40

60:40

58:42

Based on Knocked Up alone...


59:41

BD HD

118 entries in with 25 hours to go.

61:39

I guess I'll go with 45:55 in favor of HD DVD. But with plazman and edo9125 putting Blu-ray in the high 40s, my usually extravagantly optimistic bid looks a little timid. :)

Maybe I should have gone with 40:60 in favor of HD DVD . . .

In fact, why don't I? No need to reef my sails now! I'll take 40:60 in favor of HD DVD! :D

60 / 40

Ya' know - it's getting a little crowded in here - I'd like to change to my original instinct -

59:41

Thanks for all your time & effort Winn in having this work. :)

58:42

thanks
gandalf :o

59:41

60:40

62:38

62 (BD) : 38 (HD)

Knocked Up will be a big seller for HD-DVD whereas Geisha and Underworld will sell a bunch for BD. In the end, Knocked Up will sell more, skewing the results more in favor of HD by a couple of points this week.

I'm going to go 61:39 for Blu-ray. HD-DVD has the day-and-date titles that should sell better ("Knocked-Up," "Next") but are also priced much higher than the more friendlier-priced BD offerings. Despite being a catalogue title I expect "Underworld" to sell through the roof in HDM and maybe even top the category as the week's '100' benchmark title.

59/41

Oh, and 0 again for HD VMD.

65:35

58:42

60:40

129 entries with 3.5 hours. Will this be the first week we have less entries than the previous week?

60:40

A quick count revealed I missed 2 people. That is fixed.

64:36

54:46





Winn I noticed that the chart says I only made 3 attempts. I am pretty sure I made 4 I started BoG/Heroes week. I believe the week that was not included was 9/21, I should have pointed this out earlier my score is not on that first page here is my prediction link for that week http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11653999#post11653999

By the way, thanks for the weekly reminders, they help a lot.

54:46





Winn I noticed that the chart says I only made 3 attempts. I am pretty sure I made 4 I started BoG/Heroes week. I believe the week that was not included was 9/21, I should have pointed this out earlier my score is not on that first page here is my prediction link for that week http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11653999#post11653999

By the way, thanks for the weekly reminders, they help a lot.

Fixed that.

I have a new system to check the number of entries to make sure they are correct. This is the first week I used it, and I caught 2 entries that I missed. If I have the time, I am going to go back this weekend and check all the previous weeks.

thanks

Bd 65:hd Dvd 35

59:41

I'll copy the guy who has been right three weeks in a row. 62-38.

ANd we are done, and I have work tomorrow. Night all.

Bd: Hd
63: 37

I know it is too late to change my vote, but just wanted to say that given the information about The Condemned doing something over 3k last week and Knocked Up selling about 3.5 million on DVD, I think my 57:43 will turn out to be too high for Blu-ray and too low for HD DVD, even though it is at the HD DVD end of guesses. It wouldn't surprise me if HD DVD won the week.

--Darin

[QUOTE=darinp2;11815577]I know it is too late to change my vote, but just wanted to say that given the information about The Condemned doing something over 3k last week and Knocked Up selling about 3.5 million on DVD, I think my 57:43 will turn out to be too high for Blu-ray and too low for HD DVD, even though it is at the HD DVD end of guesses. It wouldn't surprise me if HD DVD won the week.
/QUOTE]

It would for me. You're forgetting that *HALF* of HD-DVD's base (360 add-ons) was busy w/ Halo 3.

55:confused::45:mad:

Yeah, I think I also probably slighted HD-DVD in my guess of 61:39. I didn't realize how popular Knocked Up is...though I would be shocked to see HD-DVD win the week; I wouldn't realistically expect to see that until next year (though I believe that Blu-ray hasn't any hope of winning the format war, I'm not certain that HD-DVD can win it either).

I'm glad I got my lowered guess of 59/41 in, although still too high on the Blu side. I think there's gonna be a lot surprised folks tomorrow. ;)

Hi, Winn -- Shmack checking in with you. You have me down at 45:55 in favor of HD DVD, but I really intended to put in my more optimistic prediction of 40:60.

I know my post might have been ambiguous on that point, but that was my intent. After all, I have my reputation to think of. ;)

Still, either way I have the most optimistic prediction for HD DVD, so don't bother changing it if it's too much of a hassle. :)

Hi, Winn -- Shmack checking in with you. You have me down at 45:55 in favor of HD DVD, but I really intended to put in my more optimistic prediction of 40:60.

I know my post might have been ambiguous on that point, but that was my intent. After all, I have my reputation to think of. ;)

Still, either way I have the most optimistic prediction for HD DVD, so don't bother changing it if it's too much of a hassle. :)

Changed it for you.

Before the numbers came out for Heroes and BoG I predicted a HDDVD win, and I thought this week was going to be 42:58 but since then after looking at combined sales were around 60k (about 40k BD, and a little more than 20k HDDVD)each week, so even with Knocked Up selling 15k I didn't think it would pass BD, but with the past few weeks probably selling 30k-40k if Knocked Up sells better than Hot Fuzz (13k) HDDVD will win the week.

300 on BD was the top seller for this week. It should not have sold more than 3500 this week as it sold 3770 last week. So we should at least be able to find the max KU sold this week using 3500 for 300 on BD.

HI,

What time of day are these numbers posted? I think they are posted on Friday maybe right about now but I can't find out exactly when so that I know when to check in and read um.

-Brian

Usually sometime around noon Central Time. NOW, in fact:

Week: 54:46
YTD: 66:34
SI: 61:39

Impressive.

-Brian

Usually sometime around noon Central Time. NOW, in fact:

Week: 54:46
YTD: 66:34
SI: 61:39

Wow! :eek:

http://i180.photobucket.com/albums/x291/guyin85606/hd09-30-07-top10-1.jpg

Wow, was I off! Blu-ray still wins but HD-DVD moved to goal posts closer again! :)

wow!

better than i though!

Wow, was I off! Blu-ray still wins but HD-DVD moved to goal posts closer again! :)

You, me, and most of the rest.

The average guess was 60.51/39.49. I think 6.5 is the furthest we have been off as a group for the last few weeks.

Wow, I was way off, too. ;)

But I'm very pleased with HD DVD's showing -- though I must admit that I'd like to see HD DVD pull off a win at some point!

Hey, maybe HD DVD will have one of those in a couple of weeks! :D

Wow, I was way off, too. ;)

But I'm very pleased with HD DVD's showing -- though I must admit that I'd like to see HD DVD pull off a win at some point!

Hey, maybe HD DVD will have one of those in a couple of weeks! :D

They should win Transformer's week. I think HD-DVD would've won (well, against Blu) had Halo 3 not come out last week. Winn, where's next week's poll?

Only one perfect pick this week -


Originally Posted by SGRSBSKIER
54:46


Congrats! http://i180.photobucket.com/albums/x291/guyin85606/bow.gif

That's a pleasant surprise. Only one person got it right.
SGRSBSKIER

Very interesting. So based on the detail/conjectural numbers we have (which I think look pretty close) that means Knocked Up did what... 15,000-16,000? Also interesting that SI or YTD didn't move.

Wow! :D

Knocked Up must have sold a bunch, as HD DVD only had 3 of Top 10, and it was still quite close.

Well I can say I was close. I didn't expect Underworld (as a catlog release)to do nearly the same as Next, although I'd also admit I didn't realize Next made so little money until after I made my prediction.

To me, it still seems like 60/40 is about the baseline, with the new releases for the given week pushing the numbers one way or the other. Next week should swing way towards Blu Ray, with F4 coming out.

70:30 in favor of bluray. Fantastic Four has been selling out EVERYWHERE, including amazon.

One does have to be concerned that Knocked Up selling 15K units is a sign that HDM media is truly taking off.

Wow does no one buy BR titles anymore?
I guessed 60 for BR and thought that was too low! Great showing for HD DVD.

70:30 in favor of bluray. Fantastic Four has been selling out EVERYWHERE, including amazon.

One does have to be concerned that Knocked Up selling 15K units is a sign that HDM media is truly taking off.


I also agree, this chart will look just like this week's Knocked Up numbers only reversed for FF2 towards BR

70:30 in favor of bluray. Fantastic Four has been selling out EVERYWHERE, including amazon.

One does have to be concerned that Knocked Up selling 15K units is a sign that HDM media is truly taking off.

The first one left such a bad taste in my mouth, I won't be picking it up.

To me, it still seems like 60/40 is about the baseline, with the new releases for the given week pushing the numbers one way or the other. Next week should swing way towards Blu Ray, with F4 coming out.

Funny, I posted an almost identical post in the other thread...
Im thinking an even stronger week for BD.
It appears there is a base number of 60:40, with big titles pushing it in either direction...
If knocked up can bring it down 6 points, how many numbers can
Bram Stoker's Dracula
Dawn of the Dead
The Day After Tomorrow
Evil Dead
Fantastic Four
Halloween
bring it up?????????????

Great minds think alike...

70:30 in favor of bluray. Fantastic Four has been selling out EVERYWHERE, including amazon.

One does have to be concerned that Knocked Up selling 15K units is a sign that HDM media is truly taking off.
Oh course it's selling out. They didn't get a full supply. Now with the bad PR about BD+ I predict BD is going to have an abysmal week next time around.

I'm gonna be as bold to say 50:50 for next week.

70:30 in favor of bluray. Fantastic Four has been selling out EVERYWHERE, including amazon.

I think next week will be an interesting week to pick. Yes, FF4 - and to a lesser extent, Day After Tomorrow - is sold out at most online merchants and, from what I read, several B&M stores. But, is it really that they are selling so well, or is there a restricted supply from production constraints?

NOTE: Just playing Devil's Advocate here in Nielson predictions - I'm not attempting to inject FUD, rumors, etc. There are more than enough places to post that sort of thing; I generally avoid them. :)

Something's not right with those numbers! Neilsen is biased! I don't trust their techniques.

Whoa...

Must've been possessed by an HD DVD fan there for a minute.:)

Well there went my good prediction run. Maybe the Paramount thing is finally beginning to take effect. Interesting days ahead.

Oh crap, i looked at the releases from the wrong week. I thought we were guessing this past tuesday with FF4. But still, wow that movie knocked up wasn't good in my opinion. Guess i'm in the minority. I'll be very surprised if next week, bd isn't back to at least 60:40 though

Anyone want to doubt that Day & Date is THE driving force for HD Media?

Nielsen contest results for 10/05/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 54:46

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Noggin1980 58:42 5 2.00
TNO821 61:39 4 2.00
CochiseGuy 59:41 4 2.00
Icemage 53:47 9 2.11
nakedeye 61:39 6 2.17
trondmm 62:38 5 2.20
assayer 58:42 5 2.20
cdzie1 58:42 5 2.20
badandy642 58:42 4 2.25
Grubert 58:42 7 2.29
geko29 60:40 9 2.33
Everdog 59:41 9 2.33
Neo1965 59:41 9 2.33
gand41f 58:42 8 2.38
hammie34 62:38 9 2.44
aaronwt 60:40 9 2.44
mswoods1 61:39 4 2.50
huntaar 60:40 4 2.50
David Scott 59:41 9 2.56
stefanpaulmayer 55:45 7 2.57
mlankton 57:43 5 2.60
teacher_man99 57:43 5 2.60
MichaelHDDVD 62:38 9 2.67
dad1153 61:39 9 2.67
darinp2 57:43 9 2.67
online 57:43 9 2.67
Poolrad 56:44 3 2.67
JeffY 60:40 7 2.71
donricouga 64:36 8 2.75
Wet1 60:40 8 2.75
David F 57:43 4 2.75
Enigma 64:36 9 2.78
MASrules 61:39 9 2.78
Ronin_R6 61:39 6 2.83
GmanAVS 57:43 8 2.88
Sketcha 61:39 9 3.00
Lee Stewart 60:40 8 3.00
edo9125 49:51 8 3.00
WayneL 53:47 6 3.00
Christ_TC 57:43 1 3.00
TPigeon2006 58:42 9 3.22
digicam95 61:39 4 3.25
caesartheboxer 60:40 4 3.25
dumbswede 62:38 3 3.33
george king 60:40 3 3.33
crimsona 62:38 8 3.38
Woodshed 63:37 7 3.43
Blu-Devil 66:34 8 3.50
plazman 48:52 6 3.50
coolhand 58:42 4 3.50
eightninesuited 64:36 9 3.56
Reylas 63:37 9 3.56
ICBM99 61:39 7 3.57
chirpie 59:41 5 3.60
Jonto81 59:41 5 3.60
Raxel 58:42 8 3.63
Baccusboy 64:36 6 3.67
BuGsArEtAsTy 60:40 6 3.67
iontyre 60:40 6 3.67
todrigo 61:39 7 3.71
theflux 58:42 9 3.78
SGRSBSKIER 54:46 5 3.80
extra_hc 61:39 8 3.88
rdjam 59:41 9 4.00
shamus 61:39 8 4.00
boomster 62:38 5 4.00
Vov76 55:45 5 4.00
neillkirn 60:40 4 4.00
wipron 60:40 3 4.00
xradman 58:42 3 4.00
patrick99 62:38 2 4.00
bigdaveman 58:42 1 4.00
luclin999 58:42 1 4.00
mcgarnagle 58:42 1 4.00
Rooper 50:50 1 4.00
Azumi 62:38 9 4.11
Rastor 60:40 9 4.11
ottscay 66:34 8 4.13
allargon 58:42 8 4.13
Will d s 61:39 5 4.20
fitprod 62:38 8 4.25
JAC6 64:36 3 4.33
alfbinet 57:43 3 4.33
GeorgeLV 63:37 8 4.38
samcan07 65:35 4 4.50
habscolts 62:38 2 4.50
theone2 60:40 2 4.50
tahustvedt 59:41 2 4.50
PopcornReady 58:42 2 4.50
hd nOOb 55:45 2 4.50
LynxFX 65:35 9 4.56
lomax 64:36 9 4.56
manikin 64:36 9 4.56
soremekun 63:37 8 4.63
JetJock3315 62:38 3 4.67
Kable 62:38 3 4.67
Merrick97 60:40 3 4.67
spacejamz 64:36 8 4.75
RDarrylR 65:35 5 4.80
UxiSXRD 63:37 9 4.89
kkozma 59:41 3 5.00
Kemet 62:38 2 5.00
Jeff Flowerday 58:42 2 5.00
Robert Spalding 59:41 1 5.00
frasersean 62:38 8 5.25
Phloyd 64:36 4 5.25
briankmonkey 60:40 9 5.33
Jim Morrison 67:33 7 5.43
Kosty 59:41 9 5.44
raaj 62:38 4 5.50
Jishywa 59:41 4 5.50
opfreak 66:34 7 5.57
MarekM 64:36 9 5.78
user4avsforum 60:40 5 5.80
jkwest 62:38 7 5.86
wreckshop 67:33 8 5.88
user friendly 61:39 2 6.00
tonngo0 60:40 1 6.00
Winn 62:38 9 6.11
dobyblue 66:34 3 6.33
krylonone 55:45 5 6.40
phansson 64:36 4 6.75
vfquest 58:42 4 6.75
CRFTony 64:36 4 7.25
ToddUGA 69:31 2 7.50
FortySix&2 65:35 2 7.50
Aresca 64:36 2 7.50
ts.enigma 67:33 2 8.50
ptysell 68:32 4 8.75
oregoncalfroper 63:37 1 9.00
Rking4441 65:35 2 9.50
edgebsl 64:36 1 10.00
Mel2 68:32 2 11.00
Brian Hampton 65:35 1 11.00
Jagt Mirage 65:35 1 11.00
ChristopherB 67:33 1 13.00
Shmack 40:60 8 13.75

GRRRR, dropped by .45. At least I'm still tied for third place...

Oh crap, i looked at the releases from the wrong week. I thought we were guessing this past tuesday with FF4. But still, wow that movie knocked up wasn't good in my opinion.

But F4 was?!? ;)

Good or not (and given the reviews and word-of-mouth, most people would probably vote 'good'), sales are based on popularity, not quality. And KU was a very popular film.

GRRRR, dropped by .45. At least I'm still tied for third place...

3rd? Looks like 11th.

PopcornReady 58:42 2 4.50

What does this mean exactly? Please. And thank you.

I was wayyyyyy off

I guessed 62:38

Dropped my avg by 0.67 points, and I've guessed on 9 weeks! :eek:

Nice week for HD DVD.

damn 1 off =/

Popcorn,

1) You guessed 58/42 this week. 2) It was the second time you have guessed. 3) on average, your guesses have missed by 4.5%.

Whoah! For a while there after seeing the deluge of ~60:40 predictions I thought I had completely taken my eyes off the prize but the Nielsen results came back as I expected, with day-and-dates dominating the landscape.

Happy to see it propelled me up in the rankings, too, to 3rd. :)