First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD. Hats off to them. I guess I should be REALLY glad that I am format neutral.

It is now obvious the power a blockbuster title can have on day and date sales.
Up until now there hasn't been a huge day and date blockbuster released in HD. I dont consider 300 to be a major blockbuster that is going to appeal to families. What will the numbers be once Spi... eh no-need-to-list-them-we-know-what-they-are hit bluray?

So how can this be good for bluray?

The BDA is no doubt going to respond in a way to minimize the impact of Transformers on HD-DVD and this could actually be a good thing.
How might they do that?

They could finally lower the cost of standalone players.

They could step up their advertising, because frankly the amount of bluray ads I have seen on J6P TV has been very low compared to HD-DVD promotion.

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.

rdjam recently asked the question do you now think competition is good and I agreed in some ways, but now Im inclined to agree 100%. If Transformers is what it takes to get them off their asses and truly penetrate the market then so be it.

However, its quite possible that the BDA will do nothing. Who knows?

I ask you:
How will the BDA respond to this?

First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD. Hats off to them. I guess I should be REALLY glad that I am format neutral.

It is now obvious the power a blockbuster title can have on day and date sales.
Up until now there hasn't been a huge day and date blockbuster released in HD. I dont consider 300 to be a major blockbuster that is going to appeal to families. What will the numbers be once Spi... eh no-need-to-list-them-we-know-what-they-are hit bluray?

So how can this be good for bluray?

The BDA is no doubt going to respond in a way to minimize the impact of Transformers on HD-DVD and this could actually be a good thing.
How might they do that?

They could finally lower the cost of standalone players.

They could step up their advertising, because frankly the amount of bluray ads I have seen on J6P TV has been very low compared to HD-DVD promotion.

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.

rdjam, recently asked the question do you now think competition is good and I agreed in some ways, but now Im inclined to agree 100%. If Transformers is what it takes to get them off their asses and truly penetrate the market then so be it.

However, its quite possible that the BDA will do nothing. Who knows?

I ask you:
How will the BDA respond to this?

I'm hoping a bogo on Fox titles :D, get them down to decent prices

I'm hoping a bogo on Fox titles :D, get them down to decent prices

cant argue with that.

The BDA will most likely wait until the end of the week so that all sales numbers for last week are publicly known. They might know now and are working on the speeches but my guess will be if in fact HD DVD did take #1 spot and all sales news is proHD DVD, they'll stick to 2 things, 1 preach whatever news is proBD and 2 preach 'this is the only week that BD has lost, we are the superior format and HD DVD will die a 7th time come 3 days from now' ;)

I hope it is respect to sales. PS3 price drop and BOGO sales only opened up my eyes and I really want to go neutral both in gaming and movie format with a PS3 purchase.

I wanna know how the HD DVD forum will respond to bluray's blockbusters!!! How about a studio supported BOGO??? Universal???? I need HOT Fuzz :D

I'm hoping a bogo on Fox titles :D, get them down to decent prices

With CC's pricing error last week, I was able to get most Fox titles that I wanted :D

Wow - I can't believe the title. What did you do with Merrick?!? :eek: :D

Still, tho, it does seem that (as I predicted) the Transformers disc has become the largest ever HD release to date in sales history of the two formats, according to the press release from Paramount.

First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD.
However, as I noted in the Nielsen Prediction thread, I think that the BD BOGOF sale did a very good job of raising the sales volumes of the overall BD sales.

Therefore, I have made the prediction that this week's numbers (for last week's sales) will actually show a greater tilt to Bluray of 75:25 BD:HD

Of course, I am hoping I am wrong, but at least Transformers has still beaten every previous Bluray sales record ever, as I predicted it would.

It is going to be very difficult for the Blu-ray companies to drop player prices down to HD DVD levels.

That would be risky and they have not production in place to do a lower margin higher volume sales model this year. Toshiba and Venturer and Microsoft have already committed to that and their are many more HD DVD units being produced. The only high volume being produced on the Blu-ray side is the PS3.

So far , the Blu-ray CE manufacturers have been content to dabble and try to sell a few higher margin units, and essentially let Sony take all the risks.

A big Transformers HD DVD sales number just encourages the studios, retailers, and hardware manufacturers of HD DVD viability and potential profitability.

Expect to see more support for HD DVD in the future as it is starting to show some potential. Expect CE manufacturers to expand plans for dual format players for next year.

thought the bogo sale was in response to the release of Transformers. there will prob be more sales when Shrek 3 and bourne 3 are released. announcement for a stand alone 1.1 player at $399 will really help matters at this point. Transformers is the biggest title this year as far as "not part of a series" is concerned.

I wanna know how the HD DVD forum will respond to bluray's blockbusters!!! How about a studio supported BOGO??? Universal???? I need HOT Fuzz :D

That would get me Shaun Of The Dead for free, please do.

I'd just like to put in a quick plug for the newest "sticky" thread on AVS, the "HDM General Sales Discussion Thread".

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=926917

Indeed impressive numbers. Has any other new blockbuster launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99?

Player prices will not drop for bluray, CEDIA proved this with all the new players being upper scale models.

Player prices will not drop for bluray, CEDIA proved this with all the new players being upper scale models.

Like HD-DVD bluray can have multiple models a high end, a mid end and a low end.

Therefore, I have made the prediction that this week's numbers (for last week's sales) will actually show a greater tilt to Bluray of 75:25 BD:HD.

Be honest with us, did you make this prediction because you wanted to save face if bluray won or do you truly believe this could be the case?

If your prediction turns out to be correct, then it would have to be considered a HUGE victory for bluray, because that would mean that there were at least 600,000 blurays sold last week (and that is only including transformers numbers)

What were 300's numbers in the first week?

What were 300's numbers in the first week?

Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000

Player prices will not drop for bluray, CEDIA proved this with all the new players being upper scale models.

It is going to be very difficult for the Blu-ray companies to drop player prices down to HD DVD levels.

That would be risky and they have not production in place to do a lower margin higher volume sales model this year. Toshiba and Venturer and Microsoft have already committed to that and there are many more HD DVD units being produced. The only high volume being produced on the Blu-ray side is the PS3.

A big Transformers HD DVD sales number just encourages the studios, retailers, and hardware manufacturers of HD DVD viability and potential profitability.

Expect to see more support for HD DVD in the future as it is starting to show some potential. Expect CE manufacturers to expand plans for dual format players for next year.

prices dont need to drop to A3 levels, a few stand-alones at $399 will be enough, but they need to decode TrueHD5.1 out of the box, 1.1 will be a big plus also.

i do wonder tho what the numbers will be like for PoTC3 and Ratatouie as well as Spider-man. i dont see many ps3 owners (the gamers) buying Rat tho so a $400 player will need to come out.

However, as I noted in the Nielsen Prediction thread, I think that the BD BOGOF sale did a very good job of raising the sales volumes of the overall BD sales.

Therefore, I have made the prediction that this week's numbers (for last week's sales) will actually show a greater tilt to Bluray of 75:25 BD:HD.

if those figures (75:25) turn out to be true, i hope the studios take note and lower software prices. "If you lower it, they will buy." a permanent $5 to $7 price drop across all titles should drive up sales big time.

I'm shocked Transformers did so well.
Just about eveyrone who owns a HD DVD player must have bought Transformers

kudos to Paramountfor meet the demand. (They did meet the demand right? no reports of sold out Stores?)
100,000 HD DVDs its first day of release
TRANSFORMERS has sold over 190,000 HD DVDs in its first week $5,130,000 spent on one the next gen movie is a good start.


I think Pirates 3 has a chance of coming close or beating Transformers. Not counting the stories (because spidy 3 and pirates3 weren't impressive story wise) Spider-man 3 wasn't as impressive visually to me, Spidy 2 was in my book. Pirates 3 will be impressive on a HDTV (if you can sit through the 3hrs )
Shrek the third and Bourne 3 (why is everything 3's this year) are going to do well too.

A point I made yesterday that I don't think anyone took seriously is the BOGO, while great from consumers cuts down on the number buyers next time around.

i think the best thing the BDA and HD DVD super friends could do is lower the prices permanently. $30 for new releases is too much for most average consumers. If the Transformers HD DVD was $10 cheaper how many more would have been bought.

I could see Star Trek TOS setting the records to beat, even tough it's a bit of cheat. If just 1 million TOS are sold the first week it becomes by default the #1 HD DVD sold

Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000

Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

Transformers would have probably sold at least 380,000 on blu-ray.

I'm hoping a bogo on Fox titles :D, get them down to decent prices

Yeah they need a Fox BOGO then we can get 2 for the price of 2:D

Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000 That not only would mean HD DVD Transformers did better than 300 in Blu-ray but that HD DVD went from selling a high of 90,000 units in one week to more than double that number to 190,000.

That shows the potential of HD DVD sales if the high numbers increased like that.

It also , no matter how you calculate the HD DVD installed base, shows a huge penetration and high attach rate for this title.

Both are things studios would look at as if the installed base is growing and more hardware is being sold, its likely that a lot of software can also be sold along with it.

Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

Transformers would have probably sold at least 380,000 on blu-ray.
we'll never really know though.

Fantastic Four 2 probably would have sold more as well if it was released on HD DVD. Same goes for Spiderman 3 and any other BD exclusive.

Having only a DD+ track and Transformers still breaks the first week sales record. Not bad at all.

Be honest with us, did you make this prediction because you wanted to save face if bluray won or do you truly believe this could be the case?Clearly, because I believe it.

If I didn't believe it were true, why would I then be concerned about saving face?

If your prediction turns out to be correct, then it would have to be considered a HUGE victory for bluray, because that would mean that there were at least 600,000 blurays sold last week (and that is only including transformers numbers)I wouldn't say "huge" - cutting all your software to 1/2-price could be seen as a move of desperation to prevent HD DVD from taking a sales lead for the week. This would be a HUGE loss of face to Bluray, and it seems to be what they were desperate to avoid.

The only "real" competition hd dvd will give this fall is Transformers and Shrek 3. I would have bet a lot of money that their releases schedule this fall would have been very aggressive.

I bet when the Nielsons come out on Friday. It will show that Transformers sold around 125,000 the first week. I just don't believe those numbers.

On another note, have we figured out how many Blu Ray/HD DVD discs are sold per week total???

Transformers wasn't heavily discounted anywhere. Target, Best Buy, Circuit City all $29.99. I purchased at Fry's for $27.99, but they are always cheaper anyway.

The only "real" competition hd dvd will give this fall is Transformers and Shrek 3. I would have bet a lot of money that their releases schedule this fall would have been very aggressive.

I bet when the Nielsons come out on Friday. It will show that Transformers sold around 125,000 the first week. I just don't believe those numbers.

On another note, have we figured out how many Blu Ray/HD DVD discs are sold per week total???

190,000!!!!!!!! Believe it!!!! 100,000 was in the 1st day alone!!!!!!

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.



Eeeee.. I agree that BD needs to at least match the prices of their players. A 1080i player would be best, but if they can't do that, they need to at least compete on par with HD-DVD's cheapest 1080p player. I've said all along that if BD loses this war, it'll be due to their stubbornness regarding dropping hardware prices. I know Sony has major issues because dropping the price of the standalone directly impacts PS3 sales and visa versa..

But firesale on 1.0? Right before all the 1.1 content comes out? Sounds like the making of a political/media nightmare. It's like flooding the market with obsolete technology that is bound to cause a consumer or two to get upset.

The honest and decent thing to do is to remove 1.0 players from the shelves and upgrade them so they are 1.1 or 2.0 compatible and then rebadge them and re-release them at the same price as HD-DVD hardware.

Of course, the probability of this happening is next to none.

I don't see how selling out of date and incompatible/inferior hardware is going to win anything but a few lost loyal customers.

The only "real" competition hd dvd will give this fall is Transformers and Shrek 3. I would have bet a lot of money that their releases schedule this fall would have been very aggressive.

I bet when the Nielsons come out on Friday. It will show that Transformers sold around 125,000 the first week. I just don't believe those numbers.

On another note, have we figured out how many Blu Ray/HD DVD discs are sold per week total???

Well, there's Bourne Ultimatum also. Expect that to be pretty big. Star Trek is a potential dark horse candidate since it is only being released as a combo.

The only "real" competition hd dvd will give this fall is Transformers and Shrek 3. I would have bet a lot of money that their releases schedule this fall would have been very aggressive.

I bet when the Nielsons come out on Friday. It will show that Transformers sold around 125,000 the first week. I just don't believe those numbers.

On another note, have we figured out how many Blu Ray/HD DVD discs are sold per week total???
You left out Bourne Ultimatum.

Indeed impressive numbers. Has any other new blockbuster launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99?
Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the "heavy discount" a result of a computer error at Circuit City that was quickly corrected? This is what you keep referring to, right? I'd hardly equate a pricing error at one B&M chain to the title being "launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99." I doubt a significant portion of the first week sales were at CCs with the BOGO deal (which was rescinded within a day or two, I believe,) but I could be wrong.

I don't know - maybe I'm taking your posts wrong, but it sure seems like you're trying to discount the sales record set by Tranformers by continually bringing up the pricing error at CC. If I'm mistaken, I apologize - but it sure seems like that's your primary motivation.

FWIW, I paid $27.99 plus tax for my copy from Fry's.

A point I made yesterday that I don't think anyone took seriously is the BOGO, while great from consumers cuts down on the number buyers next time around.

i think the best thing the BDA and HD DVD super friends could do is lower the prices permanently. $30 for new releases is too much for most average consumers. If the Transformers HD DVD was $10 cheaper how many more would have been bought. In my (fairly significant) experience, it is better to keep the prices up and have the ability to run tactical promotions.

The customers can still have the opportunity to dive in when the tacticals are run, while the producers can preserve their margins and profits.

However - that said, I think that the "war" is in it's MOST critical period at the moment. I very much think that, now that blood has been drawn, that both the HD DVD and BD sides should maintain this promotional pricing through the holidays and pump some energy into the game. Not necessarily on new releases, but on all titles that have been on the market longer than xx weeks.

I feel that this is what is best for HDM in general, so that everyone takes both formats seriously and gets off their tails to buy more players.

phansson,

it will show that Transformers sold around 125,000 the first week. I just don't believe those numbers.

Why dont you believe the numbers? Did you believe Sony's numbers about CR? Did you believe Warner's numbers about 300?

190,000!!!!!!!! Believe it!!!! 100,000 was in the 1st day alone!!!!!!

If it really is 190,000 it was indeed an impressive week for HD DVD.

Again, I will believe it when I see the NPD numbers.

phansson,Why dont you believe the numbers? Did you believe Sony's numbers about CR? Did you believe Warner's numbers about 300?

Has an hd dvd fan ever believed one thing Sony has said? I would think that those numbers were inflated by Paramount.

Those numbers on CR were from NPD numbers correct? I was under the impression that Warner inflated the 300 sales numbers by about 50,000 copies.

Mr. cinema and Greg ketrell,

You are right I forgot about the Borne Ultimatum.

phansson,

Why dont you believe the numbers? Did you believe Sony's numbers about CR? Did you believe Warner's numbers about 300?

Well both Sony's and WB's numbers were overstated compared to Nielsen...so it's not hard to believe that he thinks Paramount's numbers are overstated also. It's a difference of counting worldwide units, or shipped amounts, or some other thing...whereas Nielsen just counts US POS sales.

Perhaps overstated isn't the right word...not representative of US retail sales to consumers might be a better way to describe it. That 250k, and that 100k, were not US retail sales as far as I know.

How will the BDA respond?

"Congratulations to HD DVD for the performance of Transformers. We expected nothing less."

We eagerly await the release fo Spiderman 3 to set the bar even higher . . . as to how well a popular movie tiltle will sell."

"Congratulations to HD DVD for the performance of Transformers. We expected nothing less."

We eagerly await the release fo Spiderman 3 to set the bar even higher . . . as to how well a popular movie tiltle will sell."

Yeah, I see them saying that....

Nice. Weeks of having little to buy versus BD having tons to buy makes HD DVD fans everywhere buy the one big release for this month. I suppose having fewer hits to buy means you're more likely to buy the same hits as the rest of HD DVD owners. ;)

Kowhite,

Well both Sony's and WB's numbers were overstated compared to Nielsen.

But Nielsen doesn't capture all sources, so how are they overstated?

Phansson,

Has an hd dvd fan ever believed one thing Sony has said?

It depends on what they said. If you mean "BD has won" then no. However, most HD DVD supporters believed the numbers in Sony's report last Spring, so the answer there is yes.

Nice. Weeks of having little to buy versus BD having tons to buy makes HD DVD fans everywhere buy the one big release for this month. I suppose having fewer hits to buy means you're more likely to buy the same hits as the rest of HD DVD owners. ;)

This sounds like sour grapes. Am I wrong?:confused:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the "heavy discount" a result of a computer error at Circuit City that was quickly corrected? This is what you keep referring to, right? I'd hardly equate a pricing error at one B&M chain to the title being "launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99." I doubt a significant portion of the first week sales were at CCs with the BOGO deal (which was rescinded within a day or two, I believe,) but I could be wrong.

I don't know - maybe I'm taking your posts wrong, but it sure seems like you're trying to discount the sales record set by Tranformers by continually bringing up the pricing error at CC. If I'm mistaken, I apologize - but it sure seems like that's your primary motivation.

FWIW, I paid $27.99 plus tax for my copy from Fry's.

Wasn't quickly corrected in my area. Store reps and management said all titles blu-ray and hd dvd half price. Only difference was one store said only titles $29.99 and below which sucked at some Fox titles were over that (ridiculous IMO).

I have no doubts Transformers would have been huge without the sale, even said so long before the BOGO happened. It was big in the theater and praised in general. IMO it has always been the best chance for an HD DVD to "win" a week for HD DVD at Nielsen.

I do believe BOGO deals have helped numbers just as they are sure to help blu-ray numbers. Plenty of people here don't want to spend $30 on a title but are more than willing to spend $15 on a title. I bought 300 the day it was released only because it was on sale as well, not half off but nowhere close MSRP.

Kowhite,

But Nielsen doesn't capture all sources, so how are they overstated?


Because in Casino Royale's case, it was a sold to retailer number. In 300's case, I believe it was a worldwide number.

Neither is representative of US sales, which is what we look at with Nielsen. I'm not saying wrong...but compared to what we're talking about (Nielsen), it's not the same number. As such, it's perfectly reasonable for him to not believe that 190k is going to show up in the videoscan numbers.

Wasn't quickly corrected in my area. Store reps and management said all titles blu-ray and hd dvd half price. Only difference was one store said only titles $29.99 and below which sucked at some Fox titles were over that (ridiculous IMO).

I have no doubts Transformers would have been huge without the sale, even said so long before the BOGO happened. It was big in the theater and praised in general. IMO it has always been the best chance for an HD DVD to "win" a week for HD DVD at Nielsen.

I do believe BOGO deals have helped numbers just as they are sure to help blu-ray numbers. Plenty of people here don't want to spend $30 on a title but are more than willing to spend $15 on a title. I bought 300 the day it was released only because it was on sale as well, not half off but nowhere close MSRP.
So you honestly think that a significant portion of the ~190,000 copies of Transformers were bought at CC stores during the pricing error? Do you have a certain amount in mind? 25%? 50%? More or less?

I don't know - I just don't see the brief mistake translating into a ton of sales. How many people even knew about the error? Hell, how many people actually buy their HDM from CC?

I have to say that your response didn't really change my initial impression: it still appears that you're trying your best to discount the sales record.

Phansson,

It depends on what they said. If you mean "BD has won" then no. However, most HD DVD supporters believed the numbers in Sony's report last Spring, so the answer there is yes.

Sales of software, sales of hardware, replication of BD50' (total produced), number of BD50's that can be replicated monthly, % of BD50's that are usable.....etc......

Anything that comes out about Blu Ray is not believed, why should we believe Paramount?

Just for the record, even though I am a Blu Ray "fanboy", I personally don't believe all of the B.S. that is shoveled around by Sony or the BDA.

Now you expect me to believe that over 50% (could possibly be 65%) of hd dvd owners purchased this movie in the first week???

That is a little bit optimistic isn't it?

I dont know why everyone is obsessed by the record. Personally, I think Shrek 3 and Spidey 3 will both outsell Transformers in the first week, and I am an HD DVD owner.

The important thing about the Transformers numbers is that it shows that HD DVD is not dead and gone as some would like to think, and importantly for BOTH formats, it shows that HDM in general can sell respectable numbers. Therefore, HDM is a viable format.

phansson,

Now you expect me to believe that over 50% (could possibly be 65%) of hd dvd owners purchased this movie in the first week???

Yep, I do, because it was such a big hit at the theaters, and there was a ton of hype for the movie. As I said above, I expect Shrek 3 will outsell Transformers.

I also expect that Spidey 3 will easily sell 250K units the first week, and that would represent about 50% of the BD market (using the standard assumption of 20% PS3s as BD players).

Sales of software, sales of hardware, replication of BD50' (total produced), number of BD50's that can be replicated monthly, % of BD50's that are usable.....etc......

Anything that comes out about Blu Ray is not believed, why should we believe Paramount?

Just for the record, even though I am a Blu Ray "fanboy", I personally don't believe all of the B.S. that is shoveled around by Sony or the BDA.

Now you expect me to believe that over 50% (could possibly be 65%) of hd dvd owners purchased this movie in the first week???

That is a little bit optimistic isn't it?

I believe the number is closer to 40%. There are well over 450,000 HD DVD players in the USA (counting the AO)

Wasn't quickly corrected in my area. Store reps and management said all titles blu-ray and hd dvd half price. Only difference was one store said only titles $29.99 and below which sucked at some Fox titles were over that (ridiculous IMO).

I have no doubts Transformers would have been huge without the sale, even said so long before the BOGO happened. ..."the sale"?? There WAS no sale on Transformers. If your single store made a mistake, there's no way that would have accounted for even 0.000001 % of the sales of Transformer. Transformer made these numbers on it's own merits (and those of HD DVD) - whereas the BD sales for the week were only due to a rather desperate BOGOF sale that most accept was put together simply to combat Transformers.

it shows that HDM in general can sell respectable numbers. Therefore, HDM is a viable format.Spot on - well said.

So you honestly think that a significant portion of the ~190,000 copies of Transformers were bought at CC stores during the pricing error? Do you have a certain amount in mind? 25%? 50%? More or less?

I don't know - I just don't see the brief mistake translating into a ton of sales. How many people even knew about the error? Hell, how many people actually buy their HDM from CC?

I have to say that your response didn't really change my inital impression: it still appears that you're trying your best to discount the sales record.

I'm not convinced it was a brief mistake at, least my local stores didn't seem to think so as it lasted more than a couple of days. I don't know how significant but it certainly helped. I have no idea how many buy at Circuit City versus Best Buy versus Fry's. If Best Buy is #1(I think somebody linked that) then Circuit City is pretty high on the food chain most likely. Fry's not so much despite having much better prices on average.

Just posting my thoughts. Like I said, I had no doubts it would do well long before the BOGO deal (I'm sure my posting history which indicates that still wouldn't convince you, which is fine :) )

..."the sale"?? There WAS no sale on Transformers. If your single store made a mistake, there's no way that would have accounted for even 0.000001 % of the sales of Transformer. Transformer made these numbers on it's own merits (and those of HD DVD) - whereas the BD sales for the week were only due to a rather desperate BOGOF sale that most accept was put together simply to combat Transformers.

Not true, there was a sale and it wasn't at just a single Circuit City store (Steeb for example bought it on sale at Fry's) . If a blu-ray BOGO (which was at Fry's before the week Transformers launch as well for blu-ray and HD DVD) is desperate, so is an HD DVD BOGO.

edit: Did you pay $39.99 for it rdjam?

Indeed impressive numbers. Has any other new blockbuster launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99?

IT WAS A MISTAKE BY CC!!

GET OVER IT!!


By the way, the dead horse known as " Paramount/Dreamworks going HD-DVD exclusive." is still around if you would like to beat on that for a while.

Face it your just mad because HD-DVD got a bunch of deals they were not supposed to get, and stole a little thunder from the blu camp.

Not true, there was a sale and it wasn't at just a single Circuit City store (Steeb for example bought it on sale at Fry's) . If a blu-ray BOGO (which was at Fry's before the week Transformers launch as well for blu-ray and HD DVD) is desperate, so is an HD DVD BOGO.Nah - when the HD side does it, it'll just be "return fire".

edit: Did you pay $39.99 for it rdjam? You can always do a poll and ask for location and price. I'd be shocked if the majority payed $39.99.As per usual, I bought mine at Amazon at less than retail - but nowhere near the $15 typical of the BD BOGOF sale.

IT WAS A MISTAKE BY CC!!

GET OVER IT!!


By the way, the dead horse known as " Paramount/Dreamworks going HD-DVD exclusive." is still around if you would like to beat on that for a while.

Face it your just mad because HD-DVD got a bunch of deals they were not supposed to get, and stole a little thunder from the blu camp.

lol, why are you so angry, it isn't Friday ;)

Deals are a good thing not a bad thing :) MSRP sucks , I thought that was one thing both sides agreed on. Well probably most of us, I will not speak for all.

Nah - when the HD side does it, it'll just be "return fire".

As per usual, I bought mine at Amazon at less than retail - but nowhere near the $15 typical of the BD BOGOF sale.

"return fire" when it happened at the same time, lol sweet I'll have to remember that :)

Wow - I can't believe the title. What did you do with Merrick?!? :eek: :D

Still, tho, it does seem that (as I predicted) the Transformers disc has become the largest ever HD release to date in sales history of the two formats, according to the press release from Paramount.


However, as I noted in the Nielsen Prediction thread, I think that the BD BOGOF sale did a very good job of raising the sales volumes of the overall BD sales.

Therefore, I have made the prediction that this week's numbers (for last week's sales) will actually show a greater tilt to Bluray of 75:25 BD:HD

Of course, I am hoping I am wrong, but at least Transformers has still beaten every previous Bluray sales record ever, as I predicted it would.....the Transformers disc has become the largest ever HD release to date in sales history of the two formats....I have just a smidgen of doubt about this. I'm having trouble reconciling this statement with the fact that Transformers HD-DVD hasn't been able to remain in the top ten of Amazon for even a full week following release. Today is the final day of the first week of release, and this video has declined to 13th position. Compare this with HD-DVD 300 which remained in 3rd place (behind Blu-ray 300 at 2nd and DVD 300 at 1st place). And the various 300 versions remained high for a considerable time. I guess we'll see what this coming Friday's Nielsen report says as well as the following week's report. It will be interesting.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

"return fire" when it happened at the same time, lol sweet I'll have to remember that :)I hope you're not trying to cause any uncertainty? The BOGOF sale was by the BD camp. HD DVD didn't have a BOGOF sale at all retailers last week...

whippersnapper,

I have just a smidgen of doubt about this. I'm having trouble reconciling this statement with the fact that Transformers HD-DVD hasn't been able to remain in the top ten of Amazon for even a full week following release.

I think that people, on both sides of the isle, overestimate Amazon and its impact. the people on this board are NOT representative of the the general population. So, I can see all the HT etc people having already ordered the movie, and that is pretty much it for now.

Not true, there was a sale and it wasn't at just a single Circuit City store (Steeb for example bought it on sale at Fry's) . If a blu-ray BOGO (which was at Fry's before the week Transformers launch as well for blu-ray and HD DVD) is desperate, so is an HD DVD BOGO.

edit: Did you pay $39.99 for it rdjam?

1. As for the HD DVD BOGO being "desperate," the title in question (Transformers) was not supposed to be a part of that deal. A computer glitch (seemingly nation-wide) caused the error and by most accounts, it was discovered and rectified after only a day or two. There was no sale on Transformers that brought the price down to ~$15 - there was a short-lived pricing error in one chain of B&M stores, nothing more.
2. FWIW, I never considered the BD BOGO deals acts of desperation - I was too busy picking up titles to care why the sale was happening.

BTW - is it safe to assume you do not own a copy of the title in question?

I hope you're not trying to cause any uncertainty? The BOGOF sale was by the BD camp. HD DVD didn't have a BOGOF sale at all retailers last week...

Me stating facts shouldn't cause uncertainty. Uncertainty in a persons mind may just be caused by insecurity. Really no reason to be insecure rjdam :)

I hope you're not trying to cause any uncertainty? The BOGOF sale was by the BD camp. HD DVD didn't have a BOGOF sale at all retailers last week...

I think some people are mischaracterizing what happened in terms of the BOGO free sale. Blu-Ray had one...HD-DVD did not, but CC screwed up and sold some to some people through a similar deal. Granted, I think some BD fans are trying to spin that in their favor, but I think it's being a bit disingeneous about the reality.

That being said, an accusation of causing uncertainty coming from you...really pretty funny.

1. I bought it for $27.99 - it was not on sale, as that's the price Fry's always charges for it. You do realize that just because they don't charge MSRP doesn't mean the titles are "on sale," right?
2. As for the HD DVD BOGO being "desperate," the title in question (Transformers) was not supposed to be a part of that deal. A computer glitch (seemingly nation-wide) caused the error and by most accounts, it was discovered and rectified after only a day or two. There was no sale on Transformers that brought the price down to ~$15 - there was a short-lived pricing error in one chain of B&M stores, nothing more.
3. You don't even own a copy of Transformers, do you?
4. FWIW, I never considered the BD BOGO deals acts of desperation - I was too busy picking up titles to care why the sale was happening.

1) Of course not, List price and what are store offers it for are two different things.

2) The pricing I received on the BOGO deals was not in the computer, they had to manually adjust the prices for the blu-ray's I purchased in the system. Same was true for HD DVD's purchased by others. Transformers was sold out at both stores I went to. The manager said they went quick on the first day.

3) Not yet. Never claimed I did. Like I said it was sold out.

4) ditto, I hope they continue to do them for both sides in the future. Regular prices are too much. Plus people were buying titles on a format that they don't even own yet (both sides), IMO that is a good thing :)

Me stating facts shouldn't cause uncertainty. Uncertainty in a persons mind may just be caused by insecurity. Really no reason to be insecure rjdam :)Not insecure at all about this, as the facts are what they are. What you have stated is NOT the facts, quite simply - As most other posters since your's have also informed you...

Anyway, moving on. I AM looking forward to some real BOGOF sales by the HD DVD side in return. It's going to be a great 2 or 3 months, IMO.

Not insecure at all about this, as the facts are what they are. What you have stated is NOT the facts, quite simply - As most other posters since your's have also informed you...

Anyway, moving on. I AM looking forward to some real BOGOF sales by the HD DVD side in return. It's going to be a great 2 or 3 months, IMO.

You can repeat "There WAS no sale on Transformers" 100 times but it certainly will not change the facts that there was a sale and at more than 1 location.

First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD. Hats off to them. I guess I should be REALLY glad that I am format neutral.

It is now obvious the power a blockbuster title can have on day and date sales.
Up until now there hasn't been a huge day and date blockbuster released in HD. I dont consider 300 to be a major blockbuster that is going to appeal to families. What will the numbers be once Spi... eh no-need-to-list-them-we-know-what-they-are hit bluray?

So how can this be good for bluray?

The BDA is no doubt going to respond in a way to minimize the impact of Transformers on HD-DVD and this could actually be a good thing.
How might they do that?

They could finally lower the cost of standalone players.

They could step up their advertising, because frankly the amount of bluray ads I have seen on J6P TV has been very low compared to HD-DVD promotion.

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.

rdjam recently asked the question do you now think competition is good and I agreed in some ways, but now Im inclined to agree 100%. If Transformers is what it takes to get them off their asses and truly penetrate the market then so be it.

However, its quite possible that the BDA will do nothing. Who knows?

I ask you:
How will the BDA respond to this?

Wow ... are you okay?

1) Of course not, List price and what are store offers it for are two different things.
Edit - Sorry, brian - I was mistaken.
2) The pricing I received on the BOGO deals was not in the computer, they had to manually adjust the prices for the blu-ray's I purchased in the system. Same was true for HD DVD's purchased by others. Transformers was sold out at both stores I went to. The manager said they went quick on the first day.
That doesn't make it any less of a mistake - the title was not supposed to be on sale. This was covered in the thread that discussed the BOGO at CC.

Because in Casino Royale's case, it was a sold to retailer number. In 300's case, I believe it was a worldwide number.

Neither is representative of US sales, which is what we look at with Nielsen. I'm not saying wrong...but compared to what we're talking about (Nielsen), it's not the same number. As such, it's perfectly reasonable for him to not believe that 190k is going to show up in the videoscan numbers.

For Casino Royale it was sold to retail. That was Sony numbers. It never mentioned SD DVD in the same pressrelease.

300 wasn't release worldwide in the same week as in the US so how could it possibly be?

The fact that they compare it to 300 and mention the SD numbers make it quite clear that it's sold to customers. SD numbers are always that.

Yes, the Nielsen numbers will be lower (if we even get them) because Nielsen only covers around 80% of the HDM market. I think you are confusing the 'missing' 300 volume with the difference between the full market and what Nielsen covers.

Then why did you falsely claim that I bought it on sale?

That doesn't make it any less of a mistake - the title was not supposed to be on sale. This was covered in the thread that discussed the BOGO at CC.

I thought the normal price was $29.99 at Fry's, as they do sale software (movies and games) on sale when they launch quite often. Thanks for the correction. Plenty of other examples I could have used and should have. Point was making a claim that is was one store is simply false. Why not correct, Rdjam as well with his 1 store remark when you know that to false?

edit:Found the add Steeb. You didn't buy it on sale but it was on sale at Fry's. I assumed you took advantage. My mistake.

"1 day only" Transformers HD DVD.

http://newspaperads.mercurynews.com/ROP/ads.aspx?advid=32664&adid=5188835&subid=18057085&type=

I'm sure most were happy to take advantage of the sale regardless if it was "supposed" to happen or not. I was merely informing you of how they rang up the movies at the two stores I went to. Rep's from both locations made it clear it was all HD titles (aside from the over $29.99 at one of them).

This is the first HD DVD title I have seen in Toronto stores that I frequent where there are "adequate" supplies of a new HD DVD title during the week it was released. That means: at least one copy on the main display when you walk in; at least a few copies next to the DVD display; at least a few copies in the actual HD DVD section.

Transformers passed with flying colours; Heroes, FWIW, did NOT.

This general availability will assist in critical ongoing sales in week 2 and 3.

Spidey 3 comes out Oct 30th -- two weeks after Transformers. And Shrek 3 comes out two weeks later, on Nov 13. I expect HD DVD will have all their "ducks" in order by them: in Canada the entire 3rd Gen Toshiba line will be released by Nov 8.

I suppose Blu-ray could try to reduce the price of every one of its obsolete Profile 1.0 players starting Nov 1. But since Profile 1.1 players have not yet been manufactured, that hardly solves anything, does it?

But is it true only 215 copies were sold to Blockbuster since 1450 of their stores refuse to carry HD DVD on the theory that "no one buys/rents HD DVD"? Gee, that makes sense!

In the meantime, Blu-ray has more titles coming, but no new hardware. It's clear now that 2007 will see no significant volume of Profile 1.1 players in market and therefore no Profile 1.1 (aka 2006 HD DVD spec movies) software till mid-2008 at earliest. Even Warner Bros revealed it wimped out with Terminator 3 in Blu-ray and will only offer a second complete copy of the movie in order to deliver "poor cousin" Blu-ray PiP. Now there's a practical use for all that "extra" Blu-ray bandwidth. :rolleyes:

BTW ... I believe Transformers has "legs" and will continue to strongly influence HD DVD sales throughout the balance of 2007. That, more than first week of sales, will be critical to decisions made by major CEs and studios come CES 2008.

I'm sure most were happy to take advantage of the sale regardless if it was "supposed" to happen or not. I was merely informing you of how they rang up the movies at the two stores I went to. Rep's from both locations made it clear it was all HD titles (aside from the over $29.99 at one of them).

CC or Fry's sell a fraction of HD DVDs in any given week. A pricing error is no more than that.

Remind me again what your point was: that HD DVD Transformers at 190,000 copies outsold all previous hidef releases in the first week, regardless of format?

Give that man a Gold Star: he's absolutely correct!

You can repeat "There WAS no sale on Transformers" 100 times but it certainly will not change the facts that there was a sale and at more than 1 location.

1. There WAS no sale on Transformers
2. There WAS no sale on Transformers
..
...
....
99. There WAS no sale on Transformers
100. There WAS no sale on Transformers
101. There WAS no sale on Transformers


How about now??

CC or Fry's sell a fraction of HD DVDs in any given week. A pricing error is no more than that.

Remind me again what your point was: that HD DVD Transformers at 190,000 copies outsold all previous hidef releases in the first week, regardless of format?

Give that man a Gold Star: he's absolutely correct!

I thought it was on HD DVD, but not HDM. 300 having the record at around 230-250k, are these figures not accurate? If not, what was its total?

Originally Posted by Merrick97
Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000

1. There WAS no sale on Transformers
2. There WAS no sale on Transformers
..
...
....
99. There WAS no sale on Transformers
100. There WAS no sale on Transformers
101. There WAS no sale on Transformers


How about now??

You cheated ;)

Why not correct, Rdjam as well with his 1 store remark when you know that to false?
Because you already have? Also, I've stated a few times that -as far as I know - the issue with CC was nationwide.

I'm sure most were happy to take advantage of the sale regardless if it was "supposed" to happen or not. I was merely informing you of how they rang up the movies at the two stores I went to. Rep's from both locations made it clear it was all HD titles (aside from the over $29.99 at one of them).
For those who were able to take advantage - more power to you. I learned about the sale after buying a bunch of BDs (and Transformers) at Fry's (as well as the two POTC discs from Amazon,) so it was too late for me. I tend to steer clear of CC and BB as a rule - they're usually way too expensive when it comes to HDM.

I thought it was on HD DVD, but not HDM. 300 having the record at around 230-250k, are these figures not accurate? If not, what was its total?
I believe the actual records that Transformers is supposed to have set are for "Best First Day" and "Best First Week" in terms of units sold.

Because you already have? Also, I've stated a few times that -as far as I know - the issue with CC was nationwide.


For those who were able to take advantage - more power to you. I learned about the sale after buying a bunch of BDs (and Transformers) at Fry's (as well as the two POTC discs from Amazon,) so it was too late for me. I tend to steer clear of CC and BB as a rule - they're usually way too expensive when it comes to HDM.

Same here, CC & BB is horrid normally, yet BB is still #1 :eek: Hope you saw my edit, as I assumed you took advantage of the sale Fry's had on Transformers.

I believe the actual records that Transformers is supposed to have set are for "Best First Day" and "Best First Week" in terms of units sold.

That quote was in response to "First Week" only, not first day. I guess I should have clarified.

Originally Posted by PRO-630HD
What were 300's numbers in the first week?

Well, I am sure Spiderman would sell more if they were individual releases.....If they count all the S3 that are boxed with the new PS3 sku then maybe........I want S2....I will borrow S3 from a friend......With the amount of BD devices out there S3 should be able to do 3 or 4 times as much as Transformers and to me if it doesn't it is a failure. I am not surprised at the Transformers number at all and I think if thier were enough 300 HD DVD when it was released that number would have been closer....i had to go all over my town to get a HD DVD of 300.

Same here, CC & BB is horrid normally, yet BB is still #1 :eek: Hope you saw my edit, as I assumed you took advantage of the sale Fry's had on Transformers.

I pre-ordered mine $27.99.

Chalk that one up to "Lesson Learned" no more pre-orders for me!

Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000


nah .. please note that 300 was released when there were millions of BD hardware already sold as compared to the <> 1/2mil HD DVD hardware sold.

anyhow i believe some with use it as a 'safe face' measure to announce HD DVD support ;)

I pre-ordered mine $27.99.

Chalk that one up to "Lesson Learned" no more pre-orders for me!

Yup, I've cancelled a few amazon pre-orders thanks to Fry's. I wish they were nationwide just to force Best Buy's/Circuit City's pricing down for others.

Hope you saw my edit, as I assumed you took advantage of the sale Fry's had on Transformers.

I just saw the edit and decided to double-check my receipt. Sure enough, I'm an ass. I only paid $26.99 after all. Sorry about that - totally my bad. Should we ever meet, you have my permission to punch me in the arm.

I just saw the edit and decided to double-check my receipt. Sure enough, I'm an ass. I only paid $26.99 after all. Sorry about that - totally my bad. Should we ever meet, you have my permission to punch me in the arm.

haha, I'm not like that and don't think your an ass (did I already PM you something I got from another who AVSer accused me of being you? lol) Perhaps first round at the local HDTV bar ;) I'm sure you are probably right though and probably not a large % of sales from CC despite AVSer's spreading the word.

I only have a BD player, and I think rdjam's estimate is WAY off. If he's right, I'm going to have to start referring to him as the "oracle". If the 190k is sold to consumer, then the ratio should be very much in HD favor. If it was sold to retailer, then the sales # should be somewhat even. my .02

I only have a BD player, and I think rdjam's estimate is WAY off. If he's right, I'm going to have to start referring to him as the "oracle". If the 190k is sold to consumer, then the ratio should be very much in HD favor. If it was sold to retailer, then the sales # should be somewhat even. my .02

I would imagine grown quite a bit since Casino Royale was released, even 300 as well. Prices keep getting better on both sides so I think it could definitely be sold and not shipped to retailers. The record will break again and again no doubt on future blockbusters.

I think people are 'missing the forest for the trees' here .....

To the OP's question about competition being good: certainly in the very short term competition between HDDVD and BR has resulted in both hardware and software price reductions/promotions. However, I stick by my assertion elsewhere that competition within a standard is better for consumers in the long run than competition between standards.

Seems to me there are four possible scenarios:

1. HDDVD and BR coexist in the long run and competition between them quickly drives down pricing - Clearly good for consumers!
2. HDDVD defeats BR, and while prices are driven down half (?) of the early adopters are left with an obsolete format - Good for consumers?
3. BR defeats HDDVD .... similar logic!
4. Format war destroys market for HDM, both formats fail, all early adopters are left wit obsolete formats - Clearly not good for consumers!

So, is inter-standard competition really good for consumers ......

The question is now... will Warner see that dropping Bluray will mean next to nothing in terms of lost sales. I think they're wide eyed at these latest numbers. It proves that snubbing Bluray really doesn't mean much.

Yup, I've cancelled a few amazon pre-orders thanks to Fry's. I wish they were nationwide just to force Best Buy's/Circuit City's pricing down for others.

Wal-mart has the best B&M prices next to Fry's from what I've seen, although it's inconsistent and selection is lower. Some Wal-marts have a nice HDM selection if you find the right one, often in a higher income area.

Blu-ray has enjoyed the vast majority of big exclusives for a solid year now. I doubt this lifts hd dvd over bd in sales, esp. given Sony's strength at retailers but it does demonstrate what hd dvd can do if given big exclusives of the type BD has enjoyed.

It also shows once again the heavy demographic lean buying HDM right now, aided quite a bit by large percentage of gamers on both formats.

The only "real" competition hd dvd will give this fall is Transformers and Shrek 3. I would have bet a lot of money that their releases schedule this fall would have been very aggressive.

You forgot Bourne Ultimatum and the biggest HD DVD title of all, ST:TOS. Star Trek: TOS will smash all existing high def media record in spite of it being a $130 TV boxset. I conservatively predict 300,000 to 500,000 sets sold the first week.

The question is now... will Warner see that dropping Bluray will mean next to nothing in terms of lost sales.

I'd think Warner's reaction would be just the opposite. Assuming somewhere within the standard 1.5-2x ratio that Blu-Ray usually sells above the same title on HD-DVD, Warner is probably thinking about all the money left on the table by Paramount and being happy to support both formats. Assuming that 190k were sold HD-DVD, that means a possible 285k-380k Blu-Rays Paramount might have moved. It might have been the first title to break 500k total units sold in 1 week.

I'd think Warner's reaction would be just the opposite. Assuming somewhere within the standard 1.5-2x ratio that Blu-Ray usually sells above the same title on HD-DVD, Warner is probably thinking about all the money left on the table by Paramount and being happy to support both formats. Assuming that 190k were sold HD-DVD, that means a possible 285k-380k Blu-Rays Paramount might have moved. It might have been the first title to break 500k total units sold in 1 week.

considering the type of movie and the PS3 i think we realistically could have seen 450-500k sales on BD, imo.

You forgot Bourne Ultimatum and the biggest HD DVD title of all, ST:TOS. Star Trek: TOS will smash all existing high def media record in spite of it being a $130 TV boxset. I conservatively predict 300,000 to 500,000 sets sold the first week.

hahah.....$130 boxset for a TV series that is ENDLESSLy rebroadcast almost daily? Seriously, other than die hard Trek fans I don't see anyone who would be interested in that.

Bourne Ultimatum on the other hand will be Huge, and will probably challenge Transformers for the biggest HDDVD title this quarter.

Merrick97 giving props to rdjam......mmmmm
rdjam predicting a 75-25 win for Blu on Transformers week?? W H A T ! ! !

Can I say "Invasion of the Body Snatchers"???

I think I can!! Lock your doors people, this is NOT a drill!!!!!!!!!!

hahah.....$130 boxset for a TV series that is ENDLESSLy rebroadcast almost daily? Seriously, other than die hard Trek fans I don't see anyone who would be interested in that.

Bourne Ultimatum on the other hand will be Huge, and will probably challenge Transformers for the biggest HDDVD title this quarter.

You are seriously underestimating the Trekkies. This is the only disc media release (HD DVD/SD DVD combo) of remastered Star Trek series. There are no SD DVD versions of this box set. It may only be a moderate blip in terms of total DVD sales, but even that will be huge in terms of high-def media sales. Just consider that TF DVD sold 9 million copies the first week compared to 190,000 HD DVD (2% of total TF sales).

Merrick97 giving props to rdjam......mmmmm
rdjam predicting a 75-25 win for Blu on Transformers week?? W H A T ! ! !

Can I say "Invasion of the Body Snatchers"???

I think I can!! Lock your doors people, this is NOT a drill!!!!!!!!!!:D :D

Yes - it's an upside down week! Group hug, everyone, quick!

I'd think Warner's reaction would be just the opposite. Assuming somewhere within the standard 1.5-2x ratio that Blu-Ray usually sells above the same title on HD-DVD, Warner is probably thinking about all the money left on the table by Paramount and being happy to support both formats. Assuming that 190k were sold HD-DVD, that means a possible 285k-380k Blu-Rays Paramount might have moved. It might have been the first title to break 500k total units sold in 1 week.

I think your logic is a bit flawed. First of all, the HD DVD of Transformers as it is now would not be possible on Blu-Ray. That's number one. Second, the decision for Paramount to join HD DVD exclusively has echoed significantly among consumers and the power of HD DVD shown here is more then clear to any studio. What ifs scenarios are not important. This title was a test for HD DVD and it passed with flying colors. These numbers show that if they simply publish titles on HD DVD only they would be making a killing in sales. No neutrality, just look at it from a pure business point of view. If one format prevails, is it viable? HD DVD has proved that it is and I will tell you that Paramount is EXTREMELY happy with their decision.

As to the claims that Blu-Ray will sell a gazillion copies of Spiderman 3.. well I'm not sure that will happen.. with the pricing that's set and the miss of the movie Spiderman 3 was and the fact that Spiderman 3 comes bundled, BDA will be happy if they hit over 100k units sold. I don't want to bet, but you can feel free to quote me if I'm off the charts with this one.

Pirates of The Carribean 3 might be the title to shake Transformers, but I don't think it will be in numbers that people are estimating. I'm seeing possibly same results as they were with first 2 parts and mostly by people who bought POTC1 and 2 (including myself).

I think that this is a good thing for HD DVD and with Microsoft embracing HD DVD with the console (finally) I think we are looking at the end of the war.

Sales of software, sales of hardware, replication of BD50' (total produced), number of BD50's that can be replicated monthly, % of BD50's that are usable.....etc......

Anything that comes out about Blu Ray is not believed, why should we believe Paramount?

Just for the record, even though I am a Blu Ray "fanboy", I personally don't believe all of the B.S. that is shoveled around by Sony or the BDA.

Now you expect me to believe that over 50% (could possibly be 65%) of hd dvd owners purchased this movie in the first week???

That is a little bit optimistic isn't it?
Of course the other explanation is that you are underestimating the total size of the new HD DVD installed base.

For example it there was 200,000 set top HD DVD players and 200,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons in the wild during the last week of August, it not impossible that 100,000 more units could have been sold in the last 6 weeks.

Say 25,000 HD DVD set top owners and 25,000 Xbox 360 owners in the entire USA or 500 per state bought a new player at the $199 Wal-Mart prices or decided to get a HD DVD player with 7+ movies when Transformers came out.

Its possible that the HD DVD installed base is larger than you think.

Or the penetration of this title is larger than you think, and that is good for the HD DVD attach rate.

Both are very good things for HD DVD that will lead to more retail support.

Or you can hope that the sales number from Paramount is a blatant lie on a industry verifiable number.

I think your logic is a bit flawed. First of all, the HD DVD of Transformers as it is now would not be possible on Blu-Ray. That's number one. Second, the decision for Paramount to join HD DVD exclusively has echoed significantly among consumers and the power of HD DVD shown here is more then clear to any studio. What ifs scenarios are not important. This title was a test for HD DVD and it passed with flying colors. These numbers show that if they simply publish titles on HD DVD only they would be making a killing in sales.

Warner claimed 250k sales for 300 after 1 week. The article claims 190k for Transformers after 1 week. If anything these numbers show Warner that they made the right call. I'm not sure what logic would would convince Warner that they would have been better off dropping approximately 2/3 of that 250k they moved of 300 sales. By the same token, an arguement can't really be made that it'd be worthwhile for Warner to drop 1/3 of thier sales to go Blu-Ray exclusive. If Warner was going to pick a side, they would probably already have done so. Then again if one of the 2 sides got enough money together... who knows.

I have just a smidgen of doubt about this. I'm having trouble reconciling this statement with the fact that Transformers HD-DVD hasn't been able to remain in the top ten of Amazon for even a full week following release. Today is the final day of the first week of release, and this video has declined to 13th position. Compare this with HD-DVD 300 which remained in 3rd place (behind Blu-ray 300 at 2nd and DVD 300 at 1st place). And the various 300 versions remained high for a considerable time. I guess we'll see what this coming Friday's Nielsen report says as well as the following week's report. It will be interesting.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm It was at #4 for a longer period of time and all of those pre-orders were shipped by Amazon on day one.

Even though it didn't peak higher than that, it was during a period also where Amazon's DVD volumes also increase, so a Oct #4 may be a higher volume seller than a mid year #3.

Now Amazon sales rankings are part voodoo, and are always relative, but #4 out of all DVDs sold at Amazon for weeks is a big number no matter what.

I'm told Amazon did a huge volume last week.

For example it there was 200,000 set top HD DVD players and 200,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons in the wild during the last week of August, it not impossible that 100,000 more units could have been sold in the last 6 weeks.



So Toshiba sold 400,000 players in the past 13 months ( roughly 30,000 per month) now they are going to sell 100,000 units in a month and a half??

I got to think the new Harry Potter in December will be the biggest release of '07

whippersnapper,



I think that people, on both sides of the isle, overestimate Amazon and its impact. the people on this board are NOT representative of the the general population. So, I can see all the HT etc people having already ordered the movie, and that is pretty much it for now. Amazon is one of the top 5 DVD and HDM retailers.

A VB article said BB was 1, followed a distance behind by Amazon , Wal-Mart CC and Target.

With still a lot of first adopter, tech savvy owners, and a complete discount selection, a lot of HD DVD and Blu-ray owners buy at Amazon,

At this stage for HD DVD its probably a larger share than it will be as the installed base grows and retailers stock more HD DVD items.

Anyone can be a naysayer.

The Paramount release referred distinctly to "first day sales" and "first week sales"; there is no need for confusion of "discs shipped" and "discs sold".

Get over it: Transformers did very well week one and, in my local experience, has tons of stock in stock to carry on selling well for one or two more weeks. Better still: the next "obstacle" is Spidey 3 ... and, like Transformers, is only available on one format.

Earth to pundits!: one-format titles mean the other format can't buy this week's hit but they can buy other stuff ... like last week's exclusive format title or BOGOus 50% off all title sales.

We are heading into a strong hardware and software selling period. Hits help sell hardware; hardware helps to sell software. In December, Harry Potter will simply sell. ;)

This has finally turned into a Tranformers discussion.

If this title would have been available on Blu Ray, it would have sold 150,00 on HD DVD and probably 300,000 on Blu Ray.

5% of 9,000,000 is 450,000. 2% of sales being HD DVD and 3% Blu Ray.

I think people are 'missing the forest for the trees' here .....

To the OP's question about competition being good: certainly in the very short term competition between HDDVD and BR has resulted in both hardware and software price reductions/promotions. However, I stick by my assertion elsewhere that competition within a standard is better for consumers in the long run than competition between standards.

Seems to me there are four possible scenarios:

1. HDDVD and BR coexist in the long run and competition between them quickly drives down pricing - Clearly good for consumers!
2. HDDVD defeats BR, and while prices are driven down half (?) of the early adopters are left with an obsolete format - Good for consumers?
3. BR defeats HDDVD .... similar logic!
4. Format war destroys market for HDM, both formats fail, all early adopters are left wit obsolete formats - Clearly not good for consumers!

So, is inter-standard competition really good for consumers ......1a.

Coexistence with pressure coming on Blu-ray CE manufacturers to bring cheaper dual format players on the market by next fall.

Format war ends by default next year as cheaper dual players become the norm and no one cares what color the next gen DVD case is.

Remember, both Blu-ray and HD DVD cases are the same size and shape in the dark or if you are colorblind. :D

First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD. Hats off to them. I guess I should be REALLY glad that I am format neutral.

It is now obvious the power a blockbuster title can have on day and date sales.
Up until now there hasn't been a huge day and date blockbuster released in HD. I dont consider 300 to be a major blockbuster that is going to appeal to families. What will the numbers be once Spi... eh no-need-to-list-them-we-know-what-they-are hit bluray?

So how can this be good for bluray?

The BDA is no doubt going to respond in a way to minimize the impact of Transformers on HD-DVD and this could actually be a good thing.
How might they do that?

They could finally lower the cost of standalone players.

They could step up their advertising, because frankly the amount of bluray ads I have seen on J6P TV has been very low compared to HD-DVD promotion.

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.

rdjam recently asked the question do you now think competition is good and I agreed in some ways, but now Im inclined to agree 100%. If Transformers is what it takes to get them off their asses and truly penetrate the market then so be it.

However, its quite possible that the BDA will do nothing. Who knows?

I ask you:
How will the BDA respond to this?

Very good post, but I have been thinking about the targeting of J6P and the future of HDM in general. Is BD or HD anywhere close to being ready for J6P? It seems that firmware upgrades are coming out regularly on both formats so that the newer movies play or fix bugs. (Fox titles and BD+, and I think that I read that Transformers was locking up until the latest firmware for some HD players). The problem is that when a movie doesn't work can J6P handle it. I know that HD has a leg up on this one because of the update through the internet, but I am constantly going to peoples houses to set up their wireless networks and hook them up on the internet. They are clueless. Not only that, if they need a wireless connection to their player they need to have a wireless/Ethernet bridge to complicate things. Updating the BD machines at this point is even worse. Burning an ISO image? That is not something that normal people do. I just wonder how long it is going to be before the firmware upgrades stop, and the players are stable enough to play all movies out there without needing an upgrade. If they do not wait until these kinks are worked out, J6P could be alienated and lost forever. Yes, the ending was a little dramatic, but cut me some slack because I have the flu. :)

Coexistence with pressure coming on Blu-ray CE manufacturers to bring cheaper dual format players on the market by next fall.

I think this is why Sony really wanted Blu-Ray in the PS3. If dual format players take over, there will still be a huge constanly growing pool of customers that you cannot sell high def movies to unless you release in Blu-Ray. They hedged thier bets so that even if Blu-Ray isn't the defacto winner, there will be a large enough pool of customers that studios will be extremely tempted to release in BD if they are only going to pick one format for general release. Of course this wouldn't really affect dual format players if that's the way it goes, but it's interesting to think about.

I never considered the BD BOGO deals acts of desperation - I was too busy picking up titles to care why the sale was happening.

+! for steeb.

i picked up 4 BDs for $60. I hope this BOGO thing runs often throughout the holiday season.

So Toshiba sold 400,000 players in the past 13 months ( roughly 30,000 per month) now they are going to sell 100,000 units in a month and a half??
$299 and $199 price points and $179 Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons with 5-7 movies can move a lot of units.

Back in the summer Toshiba sold 70,000 units in July and August.

Not saying 100,000 units were sold, but some obviously were.

More retail presence and lower prices can be a sales accelerator.

So will be the upcoming holiday season.

Congratulations to Paramount and HDDVD.

Beyond Amazon sales ranks (which are indeed part voodoo) DVDEmpire also had Blu-ray ahead all of last week.

Now, their once strong correlation with Nielsen numbers has slipped the last month or so, so I'm not saying that proves anything, but this Paramount announcement does fly in the face of both of the indicators people try to use.

Either they have no correlation at all (which I find hard to believe), the BOGO moved 1/4 million units (which I find more likely but still difficult to believe), or Paramount really means "190,000 units sold to retailers" and failed to clarify to make their numbers look really good now before the actual sales numbers come out next week.

I really don't know which it is, but at this point I'm more suspiscious of Paramount's motivation than I am of Amazon and DVDEmpire...although who knows, maybe they simply no longer have any correlation with actual sales.

I'd feel better if Paramount had told us how many shipped (we sold 87% of the HD DVDs we shipped) because then they couldn't be playing around with words as easily. But kudos to them if they moved that many.

Now you expect me to believe that over 50% (could possibly be 65%) of hd dvd owners purchased this movie in the first week???

That is a little bit optimistic isn't it?
The herd will flock to the river when there has been a long drought at the first sign of rain, yep I beleive it:)

So Toshiba sold 400,000 players in the past 13 months ( roughly 30,000 per month) now they are going to sell 100,000 units in a month and a half??

Exactly what kind of increase do you think that is :confused: It's a little more than double Kosty's estimated 30000 average for the past year. With presumably increasing sales in the past year, prices at least $100 less than a year ago, and a lot more compelling titles available, I don't think 100K seems outside the range of possibility.

..."the sale"?? There WAS no sale on Transformers. If your single store made a mistake, there's no way that would have accounted for even 0.000001 % of the sales of Transformer. Transformer made these numbers on it's own merits (and those of HD DVD) - whereas the BD sales for the week were only due to a rather desperate BOGOF sale that most accept was put together simply to combat Transformers.
CC is is BIG trouble if they only sell 0.000001% since that would mean if Transformers sold 200000 they only sold .2 copies.:D

Because you already have? Also, I've stated a few times that -as far as I know - the issue with CC was nationwide.


For those who were able to take advantage - more power to you. I learned about the sale after buying a bunch of BDs (and Transformers) at Fry's (as well as the two POTC discs from Amazon,) so it was too late for me. I tend to steer clear of CC and BB as a rule - they're usually way too expensive when it comes to HDM.

Use more internet!:D

Well, I am sure Spiderman would sell more if they were individual releases.....If they count all the S3 that are boxed with the new PS3 sku then maybe........I want S2....I will borrow S3 from a friend......With the amount of BD devices out there S3 should be able to do 3 or 4 times as much as Transformers and to me if it doesn't it is a failure. I am not surprised at the Transformers number at all and I think if thier were enough 300 HD DVD when it was released that number would have been closer....i had to go all over my town to get a HD DVD of 300.

You busted my calculator!
How could it possibly sell 3 or 4 times as much as Transformers when the weekly sales figures have been running ~1.5:1. Now as those weekly numbers get to 3:1 or 4:1 then I could see it, so just mark it down as an absolute failure in your book now.:confused:

So Toshiba sold 400,000 players in the past 13 months ( roughly 30,000 per month) now they are going to sell 100,000 units in a month and a half??

But is isn't.

It is an HD DVD EXCLUSIVE!:p

kosty,

Amazon is one of the top 5 DVD and HDM retailers.

A VB article said BB was 1, followed a distance behind by Amazon , Wal-Mart CC and Target

Yes I saw the article and you kind of proved my point - Amazon is at a distance behind BB.

Yes, alot of AVSers and some other shop at Amazon, but most people dont. Most people, walk into BB and buy the movie. If you buy the first couple of days, the prices are fairly cheap.

Spiderman 3 or PoTC 3 better outsell Transformers or some of the exclusively Blu (not Fox or Sony) studios may reevaluate their positions. Blu-ray will still outsell HD-DVD for Harry Potter. However, I don't think it will be 2:1.

I don't think the animation trifecta of Ratatouille, Shrek 3 or The Simpsons will sell big on HDM. I could be wrong. It seems that epics and action movies do well.

Blu-ray (HD-DVD, too) has to get their player prices down. I know the benefits of HDM, and I won't pay $488 at Wal-Mart for a rebadged 1st generation player. The early middle adopters won't either. (JoeSixPack isn't playing this season!)

I'm hoping before (actually after) Oct. 31 we'll see a player announced for under $300 MSRP. Then, I can go purple. Competition is good. Player prices on both sides need to go down, or this will just be SACD and DVD-Audio all over again.

RD,

I love you man but I have no idea where you are coming from. A typical week for BD would have been 50k (without the BOGO). You are saying that with the BOGO they sold 600k?? Thats 12 times their normal sales volumes. That is also ~25% of their YTD totals. I think you are WAAAAAY off here. You still have time to change!!

:D :D

Yes - it's an upside down week! Group hug, everyone, quick!


LOL, I think 75/25 might happen for blu-ray, hell I ordered/bought 8 Blu-rays along with a PS3 last week. Bought only 3 HD DVDs that week too, big spending week though. :)

This has finally turned into a Tranformers discussion.

If this title would have been available on Blu Ray, it would have sold 150,00 on HD DVD and probably 300,000 on Blu Ray.

5% of 9,000,000 is 450,000. 2% of sales being HD DVD and 3% Blu Ray.

Man, you guys just don't quit with that one. Fact is, it didn't sell one copy on Blu-Ray. Would, coulda, shoulda just don't matter. Accept it and move on.

As long as its good for the consumer, I'm down! Personally, I love the format war, as long as the consumer benefits.

Who cares if studios are subsidizing costs when the savings are passed to the consumer? In the past week, we saw HDM going for approximately $10-15, the X-Box 360 add on with free Heroes +5 mail in and King Kong, and announcement for a cheaper SKU for the PS3.

Would this be happening if there wasn't a format war? It's highly doubtful.

For the price of a PS3 a few months ago, one can go format neutral with an A2 (~$200) and a 40gb PS3 ($400). I have yet to buy a blu-ray player, but when it won't be long when the PS3 is at a price point where I can justify the purchase.

To all the fanboys, keep up it up! Although some of you guys are complete whackjobs, your rabid fanaticism is doing a helluva job of getting the prices down! It also makes for a great read!

Man, you guys just don't quit with that one. Fact is, it didn't sell one copy on Blu-Ray. Would, coulda, shoulda just don't matter. Accept it and move on.

Absolutely. I mean this only comes from Blu-Ray fans too, if you pay attention, you will notice that not once any of the HD DVD fans here said: "Oh Spiderman 3 would sell so and so copies on Blu-Ray". I think this just proves I guess that HD DVD fans are a bit more level headed and rational when compared to Blu-Ray fans.

But this is off-topic and is not analyzing fanboys, so I'm sorry if I made someone feel mad, it was just IMHO.

Indeed impressive numbers. Has any other new blockbuster launched so heavily discounted at BOGO pricing of $14.99?


So you're trying to twist and equate a circuit city snafu price with legitimate prices? Even though the CC snafu price wasn't honored at all stores? Give me a break from the blu kool-aid slurping.

Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

Transformers would have probably sold at least 380,000 on blu-ray.
Say what? A Circuit City mistake in spotty locations equates to "heavily discounted?" :confused:

EDIT: Okay, I finished reading the thread. In the massive DFW area, I called 4 CCs on Wednesday morning, none of them were extending the BOGO to HD DVD.

Man, you guys just don't quit with that one. Fact is, it didn't sell one copy on Blu-Ray. Would, coulda, shoulda just don't matter. Accept it and move on.
Just like I did, Transformers @ $1 at Redbox on dvd:D

Absolutely. I mean this only comes from Blu-Ray fans too, if you pay attention, you will notice that not once any of the HD DVD fans here said: "Oh Spiderman 3 would sell so and so copies on Blu-Ray". I think this just proves I guess that HD DVD fans are a bit more level headed and rational when compared to Blu-Ray fans.

But this is off-topic and is not analyzing fanboys, so I'm sorry if I made someone feel mad, it was just IMHO.

I agree, it's surely a different caliber of fans here. Just over at BD.com, the thread is that TF sold 24k less copies than 300. Very pathetic.

So you're trying to twist and equate a circuit city snafu price with legitimate prices? Even though the CC snafu price wasn't honored at all stores? Give me a break from the blu kool-aid slurping.

Exactly, I agree. He among others have a case of sour grapes.

Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

You keep harboring this same line across several threads, regarding the Circuit City ERROR that resulted in very few copies being sold for that price. The sale was for BD only, as the system stated, NOT HD DVD. So when this weeks numbers for BD are in, are you gonna impugn those figures too as merely because of being "heavily discounted"? No need to impugn the facts here.

190,000k+ is still huge, no need to exhibit sour graps repeatedly with the same BS.

Warner claimed 250k sales for 300 after 1 week. The article claims 190k for Transformers after 1 week. If anything these numbers show Warner that they made the right call. I'm not sure what logic would would convince Warner that they would have been better off dropping approximately 2/3 of that 250k they moved of 300 sales. By the same token, an arguement can't really be made that it'd be worthwhile for Warner to drop 1/3 of thier sales to go Blu-Ray exclusive. If Warner was going to pick a side, they would probably already have done so. Then again if one of the 2 sides got enough money together... who knows.

totally agree. 250k > 190k....so all this talk about warner is just more FUD from the usual suspects.

Maybe we should be talking about how Toshiba spent $150 milliion dollars to earn about ~$3 million from Transformers first week sales. They're gonna need to sell ALOT more copies to break even.

Pretty close and that was't heavily discounted like Transformers either.

Transformers would have probably sold at least 380,000 on blu-ray.

Most people did NOT pay $14.95 for Transformers. Not everyone knew about the CC mistake, and mine wouldn't honor the HD DVD BOGO.

But why shouldn't Transformers have been $15 bucks everywhere? That's what most DVD blockbusters are at CC, BB, WM, and Target to draw customers in.

Well, there's Bourne Ultimatum also. Expect that to be pretty big. Star Trek is a potential dark horse candidate since it is only being released as a combo.

Man, I am so there! ST Season One is a big part of my teen life.:D

In my (fairly significant) experience, it is better to keep the prices up and have the ability to run tactical promotions.

The customers can still have the opportunity to dive in when the tacticals are run, while the producers can preserve their margins and profits.

However - that said, I think that the "war" is in it's MOST critical period at the moment. I very much think that, now that blood has been drawn, that both the HD DVD and BD sides should maintain this promotional pricing through the holidays and pump some energy into the game. Not necessarily on new releases, but on all titles that have been on the market longer than xx weeks.

I feel that this is what is best for HDM in general, so that everyone takes both formats seriously and gets off their tails to buy more players.
Good points!;)

I'm getting three of the Kubrick titles today at the regular (Prime Shipping, 10% off) Amazon price. If they'd show up around the first week of December at a discounted price for a limited time (or at WM for Black Friday), that would be a good deal for those who can wait.

Nice. Weeks of having little to buy versus BD having tons to buy makes HD DVD fans everywhere buy the one big release for this month. I suppose having fewer hits to buy means you're more likely to buy the same hits as the rest of HD DVD owners. ;)

Lemonaide, eh?:rolleyes:

Man, you guys just don't quit with that one. Fact is, it didn't sell one copy on Blu-Ray. Would, coulda, shoulda just don't matter. Accept it and move on.

It wasn't available on Blu Ray??:rolleyes:

That joke is as old as the average HD DVD owner.:D

By the way, it didn't get 5/5 across the board. You might need to change your sig.

It is the 1st day of the 2nd week of the Transformers release. Transformers has ALREADY dropped to 14th place on the current top sellers list at Amazon. It certainly is no where near to being in the same league as 300. It certainly has zilch staying power.


http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

The funny thing is that if Blu Ray stays on top this week, then it really is still a victory for HDM in general. Transformers, like 300, can sell decent numbers for a popular title. And older titles can sell well with reasonable (DVD-like) prices.

And with only a few exceptions, this thread has been a civil thing of HDM enthusiasts, not partisans. I may want my format to win, but I'll take good news for HDM any day.

EDIT: Okay, a bit more partisanship than I thought. But still, good news all around.

What do you base that on. There are a lot more blockbuster DVD releases out there that are on preorder affecting things plus current big releases on DVD and we are in the 4th quarter. I would reserve judgement on until the data is in over the next 3 months.

It is the 1st day of the 2nd week of the Transformers release. Transformers has ALREADY dropped to 14th place on the current top sellers list at Amazon. It certainly is no where near to being in the same league as 300. It certainly has zilch staying power.


http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

And there are no BD movies until #33.:p

totally agree. 250k > 190k....so all this talk about warner is just more FUD from the usual suspects.

Maybe we should be talking about how Toshiba spent $150 milliion dollars to earn about ~$3 million from Transformers first week sales. They're gonna need to sell ALOT more copies to break even.


Now I'm the one saying "WOW".. $150 mil of a possible deal was only and exclusively for Transformer :D makes lots of business sense :rolleyes:

And there are no BD movies until #33.:p


:p:p

Beyond Amazon sales ranks (which are indeed part voodoo) DVDEmpire also had Blu-ray ahead all of last week.

Now, their once strong correlation with Nielsen numbers has slipped the last month or so, so I'm not saying that proves anything, but this Paramount announcement does fly in the face of both of the indicators people try to use.

Either they have no correlation at all (which I find hard to believe), the BOGO moved 1/4 million units (which I find more likely but still difficult to believe), or Paramount really means "190,000 units sold to retailers" and failed to clarify to make their numbers look really good now before the actual sales numbers come out next week.Not really - as you can see from my post - here - http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11988506#post11988506 - the DVD Empire numbers for the week show HD DVD and Bluray at almost 50:50, Bluray being something like 1/2 a % ahead. But DVD Empire was not running the BOGOF BD sale, so the impact of BOGOF was not seen there.

However, Amazon's numbers show a huge surge in BD sales due to the BOGOF, as shown in the chart in my post also - http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11988506#post11988506

So I think that my feelings about BD widening the lead for the week when we see the numbers on Friday are correct, due to their increased volume. But there is still plenty of room for Transformers to be every bit the blockbuster that is being reported.

I really don't know which it is, but at this point I'm more suspiscious of Paramount's motivation than I am of Amazon and DVDEmpire...although who knows, maybe they simply no longer have any correlation with actual sales.

I'd feel better if Paramount had told us how many shipped (we sold 87% of the HD DVDs we shipped) because then they couldn't be playing around with words as easily. But kudos to them if they moved that many.Paramount is not going to LIE in a major press release - unlike other companies. DVD Empire didn't run the BOGOF, Amazon did - that's the onloy reason for the disparity.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11988506#post11988506

CC is is BIG trouble if they only sell 0.000001% since that would mean if Transformers sold 200000 they only sold .2 copies.:DI simply meant that the amount of copies that sold at the wrong price due to an scattered pricing mistake was a very small percentage of the overall sales of the title.

The error in no way accounted for ALL of CC's sales of the title, not even a significant chunk either.

RD,

I love you man but I have no idea where you are coming from. A typical week for BD would have been 50k (without the BOGO). You are saying that with the BOGO they sold 600k?? Thats 12 times their normal sales volumes. That is also ~25% of their YTD totals. I think you are WAAAAAY off here. You still have time to change!!Fair enough, I'm hoping I'm wrong also.

But here is some simple math:

If sales were 50:50 this week, then we know that BD had to sell at least 200,000 to 220,000 (accounting for other HD DVD sales.

EDIT: Just so folks know; why I make this assumption is because sales trackers like Amazon still show BD ahead for the week, even after taking into account the Transformer sales. So BD would have had to have moved at least the same amount of discs as Transformers, thanks to the BOGOF sales.

If Bluray sold (according to Amazon trackers) much more than HD DVD for the week, then this may jump to 300,000 or even 400,000 for BD.

So, my guess is that total HDM volumes for the week may possibly exceed 400,000 discs (this is total, not just what Nielsen reports).

I suspect that BD may get at least 2/3 of this - however, the greater the number that Total HDM sales exceeds 400,000 units by, the greater the share for BD, due to the BOGOF sale.

I realize it sounds crackers, and I hope i'm wrong.

The BOGOF sale was put out there specifically to stop Transformers from earning an HD DVD win for that week - which I am 100% sure it would have done - and it, the BOGOF sale, initially appears to have done that job.

The HD DVD group very much needs to take that seriously and respond in kind at strategic times (and bearing in mind that the BD group will anticipate that reaction and resort to "beating them to the punch" by a week or so, and depleting the sales potential of any sale they launch).

I'm certain that the BD bunch WILL repeat this sale, and the next time will likely be MUCH more organised and include more studios and titles - as I think that this one was organised hastily at the last moment. The HD DVD group needs to beat them to market with a well-organised and all-inclusive BOGOF sale of their own, short and sharp (a week or two) to mop up as much of the remaining sales potential, before the BD BOGOF (part deux) is launched. Otherwise the BD bunch will simply do this repeatedly before January and keep the sales floor dry.

The HD DVD group must recognize that there are scores of dual-format owners, and even BD owners, who would respond very favourably to an HD BOGOF sale, just as there were so many who responded to the BD BOGOF.

The HD DVD group must recognize that there are scores of dual-format owners, and even BD owners, who would respond very favourably to an HD BOGOF sale, just as there were so many who responded to the BD BOGOF.

God I hope so. A HDM enthusiast could get used to cheap purchases. =-.)

so just because hd dvd might get 1 week out the whole year the hd dvd fanboys are expecting blu-ray exclusive studios to go neutral or even hd dvd exclusive after friday's nielsen data? lol

Paramount is not going to LIE in a major press release - unlike other companies.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11988506#post11988506

Im not saying that I think Paramount is misleading us, but do you honestly believe that the BDA is the only side of this that is going to spin their numbers? Please dont tell me that you are one of those people that believes that Toshiba and MS are good honest corporations that are 100% pro consumer. Am I misunderstanding you?

Im not saying that I think Paramount is misleading us, but do you honestly believe that the BDA is the only side of this that is going to spin their numbers? Please dont tell me that you are one of those people that believes that Toshiba and MS are good honest corporations that are 100% pro consumer. Am I misunderstanding you?Actually I hope I'm just misunderstanding you, as it would otherwise appear you are trying to put words into my mouth, and maybe take me away from the points I made.

My post meant just what it said - thatParamount is not going to be untruthful in a press release, particularly at this level of visibility. finito.

:p:p

While my couple of classes of psychology give me some insight as to why people get so attached to pieces of plastic, I still don't fully understand fanboyism on both sides.

One would think higher HDM sales would be a good thing for all concerned, whether you bought HD DVD or Blu-Ray. Neither format will gain traction until they start selling in numbers that begin to compare to DVD -- so, as HDM enthusiasts, we should all be rooting for HDM to sell like gangbusters.

Why cheer the the fact that Blu-ray has no movie in the top 25? Why downgrade the fact that transformers is the biggest selling exclusive HD movie so far?

We should all be pushing and supporting greater HDM sales, regardless of the format, if you ask me.

Why would anyone repeat the BOGOF strategy ? This was for a one time circumstance to potentially thward "Transformers" from dominating HD sales for one (1) week. Blu-ray really has no reason to repeat this given the number of new titles coming every week for the rest of the year. Or do people think "Bourne Ultimatum" and "Dreck 3" are threats ?

And I'm not sure HD DVD has the firepower to have much success with a BOGOF unless maybe Warner is a participant. But why should they ? They are probably doing comparitive sales analysis between Blu-ray and HD DVD on their own titles. Why would they skew this with BOGOF ? Paramount made a weak effort with the Fry's sale this past week but I don't know how long this will last. Universal has seemed very quiet lately.

Rdjam, clear your PM box :(

And there are no BD movies until #33.:p

LMAO! :D

The BOGOF sale was put out there specifically to stop Transformers from earning an HD DVD win for that week - which I am 100% sure it would have done - and it, the BOGOF sale, initially appears to have done that job.

The HD DVD group very much needs to take that seriously and respond in kind at strategic times (and bearing in mind that the BD group will anticipate that reaction and resort to "beating them to the punch" by a week or so, and depleting the sales potential of any sale they launch).

I'm certain that the BD bunch WILL repeat this sale, and the next time will likely be MUCH more organised and include more studios and titles - as I think that this one was organised hastily at the last moment. The HD DVD group needs to beat them to market with a well-organised and all-inclusive BOGOF sale of their own, short and sharp (a week or two) to mop up as much of the remaining sales potential, before the BD BOGOF (part deux) is launched. Otherwise the BD bunch will simply do this repeatedly before January and keep the sales floor dry.

The HD DVD group must recognize that there are scores of dual-format owners, and even BD owners, who would respond very favourably to an HD BOGOF sale, just as there were so many who responded to the BD BOGOF.

I don't agree with the BOGO strategy. I mean, give me HD DVDs for free and I'll take them, but I don't think it's necessary.

Giving movies away free to skew the Nielson numbers accomplishes what? Studios don't pay their bills in movies, they pay them in dollars. Accountants aren't tallying Nielson points, they're tallying dollars. Sell one movie for $25 or sell two for $25, it's still $25. BR accomplished absolutely nothing with their firesale. TF was going to sell what it was going to sell. Throwing free movies at people didn't change that. Chest thumping over artificially manipulated numbers that only AVS forum members care about accomplishes nothing. Warner, Disney, Fox... they're not stupid. They know HD DVD took this week by any REAL METRIC, regardless of how the Nielson numbers turn out. They know that BOGO sales aren't a desirable long term model. They know HD DVD is giving away movies with players, that if counted at POS would change the Nielson numbers but not the bottom line. If anything, all the BDA accomplished this week was to remove all doubt from any reasonable person's mind that the Nielson numbers are meaningless at volumes so small that companies can tamper with them at will. IMO, I'd rather HD DVD not stoop to these kinds of PR tactics, and focus their resources on things that matter.

I don't agree with the BOGO strategy. I mean, give me HD DVDs for free and I'll take them, but I don't think it's necessary.

Giving movies away free to skew the Nielson numbers accomplishes what? Studios don't pay their bills in movies, they pay them in dollars. Accountants aren't tallying Nielson points, they're tallying dollars. Sell one movie for $25 or sell two for $25, it's still $25. BR accomplished absolutely nothing with their firesale. TF was going to sell what it was going to sell. Throwing free movies at people didn't change that. Chest thumping over artificially manipulated numbers that only AVS forum members care about accomplishes nothing. Warner, Disney, Fox... they're not stupid. They know HD DVD took this week by any REAL METRIC, regardless of how the Nielson numbers turn out. They know that BOGO sales aren't a desirable long term model. They know HD DVD is giving away movies with players, that if counted at POS would change the Nielson numbers but not the bottom line. If anything, all the BDA accomplished this week was to remove all doubt from any reasonable person's mind that the Nielson numbers are meaningless at volumes so small that companies can tamper with them at will. IMO, I'd rather HD DVD not stoop to these kinds of PR tactics, and focus their resources on things that matter.

Wow. So you are more concerned about the bottomline for the studios than seeing great sales on HDM and adding more titles to your collection? I gladly welcome BOGO sales for both formats as it simply allows my hard earned dollars to go much further. HDM prices are too high. Clearly the BOGO sales show that if you price catalog titles accordingly ($10-15) people will buy them. You must work for a studio or something...

Wow. So you are more concerned about the bottomline for the studios than seeing great sales on HDM and adding more titles to your collection? I gladly welcome BOGO sales for both formats as it simply allows my hard earned dollars to go much further. HDM prices are too high. Clearly the BOGO sales show that if you price catalog titles accordingly ($10-15) people will buy them. You must work for a studio or something...

Wow. So you didn't read my post? I specifically said I'd take free HD DVDs. My point is that if I take free HD DVDs, then free HD DVDs are what they are, not sales, regardless of what Nielson says. Me adding titles to my collection is a great thing, but the studios don't care about my library, they care about how much money they made furnishing it. HD DVD *CAN* have BOGO sale if they desire, that's not a bad thing. But I don't think they *HAVE* to have a BOGO sale. If they *DO* have a BOGO sale, the benefit isn't the Nielson numbers, the benefit is increased penetration of HD DVD into people's homes. If reasonable media pricing in general is the concern, then the better solution is to have reasonable pricing on non-sale titles, all the time, rather than sporadically giving away free movies at intervals timed to create PR FUD. My bottom line point is that being fearful of how the Nielson numbers will be affected by the BD BOGO sale is unwarranted. HD DVD rocked last week, and every studio already knows it. Nielson will not change their mind.

But here is some simple math:

If sales were 50:50 this week, then we know that BD had to sell at least 200,000 to 220,000 (accounting for other HD DVD sales.

If Bluray sold (according to Amazon trackers) much more than HD DVD for the week, then this may jump to 300,000 or even 400,000 for BD.

So, my guess is that total HDM volumes for the week may possibly exceed 400,000 discs (this is total, not just what Nielsen reports).

I suspect that BD may get at least 2/3 of this - however, the greater the number that Total HDM sales exceeds 400,000 units by, the greater the share for BD, due to the BOGOF sale.

I realize it sounds crackers, and I hope i'm wrong.



You are using some strange baselines. The BD would be 40-50k, not 200k as a baseline. In my estimation BD would have been <20% without this for the most lopsided win of the year for either side.

Truth be told I have zero idea what the effect the major BD BOGO had. I was trying to guess an improvement of 60-100k but that still gets them no where near the ~180 (I am figuring the loss of a few days of TF since the weeks didn't line up, and total X 80%, plus another 30k for other HDs). If the BOGO really sold 550k more disks than usual that would really change the pricing dynamic (which would be a good thing).

Either way, as I estimated earlier this was hands down the best HDM sales week ever.

Perception matters. Anyone who doubts that need only look at the stock market to know how true that is.

The BOGO sale was likely used to do two things: 1) Prevent HD DVD from claiming their first weekly sales victory in some time; 2) be able to trumpet their sales figures to the average person to say "See, even with Transformers, we're still winning the war!" It was NOT created to change any particular studio's "mind."

The people who run the PR campaign at the BDA can't be complete morons -- they know that before the average person gets into the HD game, they want to feel confident that what they buy will still be around in a year. It's the classic chick and the egg game. To get around that, the BDA is hoping to win the perception battle amongst the common people that Blu-Ray will, inevitably, win the format battle. An uninterrupted streak of weekly sales figures helps this goal.

Simply put, if the BDA can convince the average shopper that Blu-Ray is "Winning," even if the Ivory Tower "Elites" at AVS think otherwise, then the BOGO worked.

I don't agree with the BOGO strategy. I mean, give me HD DVDs for free and I'll take them, but I don't think it's necessary.

Giving movies away free to skew the Nielson numbers accomplishes what? Studios don't pay their bills in movies, they pay them in dollars. Accountants aren't tallying Nielson points, they're tallying dollars. Sell one movie for $25 or sell two for $25, it's still $25. BR accomplished absolutely nothing with their firesale. TF was going to sell what it was going to sell. Throwing free movies at people didn't change that. Chest thumping over artificially manipulated numbers that only AVS forum members care about accomplishes nothing. Warner, Disney, Fox... they're not stupid. They know HD DVD took this week by any REAL METRIC, regardless of how the Nielson numbers turn out. They know that BOGO sales aren't a desirable long term model. They know HD DVD is giving away movies with players, that if counted at POS would change the Nielson numbers but not the bottom line. If anything, all the BDA accomplished this week was to remove all doubt from any reasonable person's mind that the Nielson numbers are meaningless at volumes so small that companies can tamper with them at will. IMO, I'd rather HD DVD not stoop to these kinds of PR tactics, and focus their resources on things that matter.

I don't agree with the BOGO strategy. I mean, give me HD DVDs for free and I'll take them, but I don't think it's necessary.

Giving movies away free to skew the Nielson numbers accomplishes what? Studios don't pay their bills in movies, they pay them in dollars. Accountants aren't tallying Nielson points, they're tallying dollars. Sell one movie for $25 or sell two for $25, it's still $25. BR accomplished absolutely nothing with their firesale. TF was going to sell what it was going to sell. Throwing free movies at people didn't change that. Chest thumping over artificially manipulated numbers that only AVS forum members care about accomplishes nothing. Warner, Disney, Fox... they're not stupid. They know HD DVD took this week by any REAL METRIC, regardless of how the Nielson numbers turn out. They know that BOGO sales aren't a desirable long term model. They know HD DVD is giving away movies with players, that if counted at POS would change the Nielson numbers but not the bottom line. If anything, all the BDA accomplished this week was to remove all doubt from any reasonable person's mind that the Nielson numbers are meaningless at volumes so small that companies can tamper with them at will. IMO, I'd rather HD DVD not stoop to these kinds of PR tactics, and focus their resources on things that matter.

You're forgetting one thing. These kind of sales lead to a much higher adoption rate. When these sales take place it gets many people to buy movies that had no interest in buying them in the first place. Afterall, I consider one of the failures of bluray is their inability to take better advantage of their PS3 installed base. These BOGO sales could very well have convinced many people that its worth a look and once you get people to believe that your product is best, then it will take off. Many people are still of the belief that there is little advantage over dvd.

As someone who is format neutral with not very many HD-DVDs, I will say that I VERY much look forward to HD-DVDs bogo sale. Eventhough, I prefer strongly bluray, in the end ITS ABOUT THE MOVIES.

You are using some strange baselines. The BD would be 40-50k, not 200k as a baseline. In my estimation BD would have been <20% without this for the most lopsided win of the year for either side.Sorry, coolhand, I wasn't clear enough in my post (I'll go back and edit it).

The reason I gave the BD count so much extra, is that the trackers like Amazon are still showing BD ahead, even with the numbers reported re: Transformers. So my conclusion was that BD garnered at least an equivalent amount of disc sales as Transformers. Yes - it would mean that the BOGOF sale may have quadrupled the BD normal number, or more.

Truth be told I have zero idea what the effect the major BD BOGO had. I was trying to guess an improvement of 60-100k but that still gets them no where near the ~180 (I am figuring the loss of a few days of TF since the weeks didn't line up, and total X 80%, plus another 30k for other HDs). If the BOGO really sold 550k more disks than usual that would really change the pricing dynamic (which would be a good thing).

Either way, as I estimated earlier this was hands down the best HDM sales week ever.I definitely agree - probably the best HDM sales week on record.

You're forgetting one thing. These kind of sales lead to a much higher adoption rate. When these sales take place it gets many people to buy movies that had no interest in buying them in the first place. Afterall, I consider one of the failures of bluray is their inability to take better advantage of their PS3 installed base. These BOGO sales could very well have convinced many people that its worth a look and once you get people to believe that your product is best, then it will take off. Many people are still of the belief that there is little advantage over dvd.

As someone who is format neutral with not very many HD-DVDs, I will say that I VERY much look forward to HD-DVDs bogo sale. Eventhough, I prefer strongly bluray, in the end ITS ABOUT THE MOVIES.

I didn't forget about that, and I agree with it. My original post was not intended to address all aspects of a BOGO sale in a general sense. It was intended to address a particular underlying concern I've noticed across the board. RD's post got quoted, but there are a number of people who are concerned that the Nielson results due Friday, if in BD's favor, somehow reduce the success of HD DVD for last week. I'm simply saying that's not true, and that intentional manipulation of the numbers simply make them worthless, and that the studios know this. They have all the data they need in front of them already, without waiting for the Nielson results. As for consumers, the only ones who know the Nielson numbers are here on this board, and BDA doesn't need to win the week in Nielson to keep spouting that they've won the war in their press releases. They certainly haven't let facts get in the way of previous announcements, why worry about it now. Software prices do need to be lower, but they need to be lower across the board, not single week gimmicks for skewing Nielson numbers.

Sorry, coolhand, I wasn't clear enough in my post (I'll go back and edit it).

The reason I gave the BD count so much extra, is that the trackers like Amazon are still showing BD ahead, even with the numbers reported re: Transformers. So my conclusion was that BD garnered at least an equivalent amount of disc sales as Transformers. Yes - it would mean that the BOGOF sale may have quadrupled the BD normal number, or more.


I definitely agree - probably the best HDM sales week on record.

I would be really careful with the amazon numbers since this is the composite rankings and the number 5 title can out sell the number 7 title significantly even by a factor of 2:1. There have been times where if you look at the Amazon rankings and then the actuall Neilson rankings and the two don't corolate at all. Hopefully though it was a positive week for HDM as a whole. If you are right on the BOGO doing that kind of business that would indicate that there is a decent amount of pent up demand for titles and that price is holding people back. Of course studios want people to get use to a higher pricing structure for HDM so time will tell.

While my couple of classes of psychology give me some insight as to why people get so attached to pieces of plastic, I still don't fully understand fanboyism on both sides.

One would think higher HDM sales would be a good thing for all concerned, whether you bought HD DVD or Blu-Ray. Neither format will gain traction until they start selling in numbers that begin to compare to DVD -- so, as HDM enthusiasts, we should all be rooting for HDM to sell like gangbusters.

Why cheer the the fact that Blu-ray has no movie in the top 25? Why downgrade the fact that transformers is the biggest selling exclusive HD movie so far?

We should all be pushing and supporting greater HDM sales, regardless of the format, if you ask me.

AMEN archangel37!!! Enough of the red vs. blue fanboy crap. It's about the movies right? This title has been great for HDM period. I still can't get over the people that are one format only cheerleaders...blue or red. Lucky for me, I get to watch Transformers on HD DVD and enjoy all of the BD exclusives too.

Software prices do need to be lower, but they need to be lower across the board, not single week gimmicks for skewing Nielson numbers.

Spot on. BOGOs are nice and all, but they're sporadic and unpredictable. Lower prices in general are what's really needed to increase the purchases/volume of sales.

Something along the lines of:

Bluray: 165,000
HD-DVD: 80,000

give or take 5,000

for a total of around 230,000-250,000

those are the exact numbers by the way...

I don't agree with the BOGO strategy. I mean, give me HD DVDs for free and I'll take them, but I don't think it's necessary.

Giving movies away free to skew the Nielson numbers accomplishes what?

Several reasons:
1. Promote good will from your supporters - I think the BDA by offering this sale "bought" a lot of good will from the people out there that are supporting this format by laying down their hard earned cash and supporting this format. It's very hard to put a dollar figure on good will, because its priceless.

2. Volume - Many people on both sides argue about how many disks BD can produce and what their dropout rate is, but as a former product engineer I can tell you that the key to getting your processes down pat that will increase production effencies and along with lowering your cost is *volume*.

3. Word of mouth - More HD media in the hands of people with the potential to infuence others in their buying decisions, especially at this time of the year when people are more inclined to drop some cash on players and software is a very good positive.

Theses are just a few points on the up side to having these sales that just about every BD poster on these forums would have to agree with.

Several reasons:
1. Promote good will from your supporters - I think the BDA by offering this sale "bought" a lot of good will from the people out there that are supporting this format by laying down their hard earned cash and supporting this format. It's very hard to put a dollar figure on good will, because its priceless.

2. Volume - Many people on both sides argue about how many disks BD can produce and what their dropout rate is, but as a former product engineer I can tell you that the key to getting your processes down along with cost is volume.

3. Word of mouth - More HD media in the hands of people with the potential to infuence others in their buying decisions, especially at this time of the year when people are more inclined to drop some cash on players and software is a very good positive.

Theses are just a few points on the up side to having these sales that just about every BD poster on these forums would have to agree with.

Again, I'm not disagreeing with the general concept of lower prices and more volume for the sake of lower prices and more volume. That's a good thing and will speed adoption. I'm disagreeing with the concept of one-week firesales for the purpose of skewing Nielson numbers. BDA didn't accomplish anything with it, and neither would HD DVD by responding in kind when SM3 comes out. IMO, HD DVD should not abandon their slow and steady approach and adopt BDA's hysterical and spastic approach just to try and win one week in Nielson. When a movie is released that I want to own, I want to know I can go to WM or BB and pick it up for $19.99 and watch it over the weekend. I don't want to have to put it on a to-get list and wait a couple months for the next firesale and pick up 10 at once. Whoever gets to that point first will no longer need to worry about this weekly Nielson frenzy. The numbers will take care of themselves.

I would be really careful with the amazon numbers since this is the composite rankings and the number 5 title can out sell the number 7 title significantly even by a factor of 2:1.

Of course you are right, but DVD empire (whose percentages are based on their actual sales numbers) also showed Blu-ray ahead all week (albeit in the 54-58% range).

Of course their sales numbers may not be indicative of sales as a whole, but they seem to shore up RdJam's arguement.

I'm still not convinced that Paramount was truly giving us numbers sold to customers (as opposed to sold to vendors). Don't flame me, I'm not saying it can't be true, but if it is then current indications seem to be that the BOGO sale was HUGE, which suggests to me that software price may matter more to this war than hardware price.

Ask RdJam...I don't agree with him if I don't have to ;) We'll find out in a few days I guess.

AMEN archangel37!!! Enough of the red vs. blue fanboy crap. It's about the movies right? This title has been great for HDM period. I still can't get over the people that are one format only cheerleaders...blue or red. Lucky for me, I get to watch Transformers on HD DVD and enjoy all of the BD exclusives too.

I totally agree. As of last Friday, I became neutral with the purchase of the last A20 at Future Shop. I can't tell you how elated I am that I don't have to worry about which studio is releasing which movie anymore. If it's released in HD, I can buy it!

When I visited these forums after a weekend of watching Transformers and Knocked Up, I realized how ridiculous this format cheerleading is.

This so called format war is going to last for years. Arguing about weekly sales of a particular title is not going to prove anything.

If Transformers wins the week's HDM sales, HD DVD will not be the winning format and if it doesn't win, it doesn't mean that HD DVD loses.

Enough with starting threads intended to insight anger and frustration.

Let's just enjoy our movies!

I totally agree. As of last Friday, I became neutral with the purchase of the last A20 at Future Shop. I can't tell you how elated I am that I don't have to worry about which studio is releasing which movie anymore. If it's released in HD, I can buy it!

When I visited these forums after a weekend of watching Transformers and Knocked Up, I realized how ridiculous this format cheerleading is.

This so called format war is going to last for years. Arguing about weekly sales of a particular title is not going to prove anything.

If Transformers wins the week's HDM sales, HD DVD will not be the winning format and if it doesn't win, it doesn't mean that HD DVD loses.

Enough with starting threads intended to insight anger and frustration.

Let's just enjoy our movies!

if we do that what am i gonna do on a slow work day?

neutral's the only place to be tho. most people really dont care what color the case is in. +1 to what angel said tho, the sooner HD movies start selling 1mil day one, the sooner the war is over and HD will stay niche. Shareholders wont be happy hearing that you could have sold 4 million movies but only sold 2 because of the color of the case. either theyll all go neutral, or df players will be affordable

So HD-DVD wins one week and that is a cause for celebration? What about all the other 51 weeks in the year in which they lost and some weeks where they got totally annihilated.

Transformers would have seen spectacular numbers for Blu-ray compared to HD-DVD, maybe that's why Toshiba went after Paramount.

So HD-DVD wins one week and that is a cause for celebration? What about all the other 51 weeks in the year in which they lost and some weeks where they got totally annihilated.

Transformers would have seen spectacular numbers for Blu-ray compared to HD-DVD, maybe that's why Toshiba went after Paramount.

More like why was BD was so worried about 1 lost week? I have never seen such tactics used against ONE title. How many threads have we seen decrying the lack of "lossless".? How many threads have we seen saying "No biggie, I will wait until its on BD, or I will get it on DVD"

Why such a massive effort to smear this title by the BD crowd??? The BD crowd was talking about this title more than HDDVD fans.

Something to ponder!

More like why was BD was so worried about 1 lost week? I have never seen such tactics used against ONE title. How many threads have we seen decrying the lack of "lossless".? How many threads have we seen saying "No biggie, I will wait until its on BD, or I will get it on DVD"

Why such a massive effort to smear this title by the BD crowd??? The BD crowd was talking about this title more than HDDVD fans.

Something to ponder!

I suspect the BDA was concerned about a week where the ratio went to HD DVD is the form of 80/20:D

Amd it appears that there are executives who are just as consumed by the format war as we are.:o

Amd it appears that there are executives who are just as consumed by the format war as we are.

Indeed. This friday will tell if Paramount execs were so worried that they massaged the numbers. Again, anyone know how Paramount could get weekly sales data from retailers 1 day after the week ended???

Indeed. This friday will tell if Paramount execs were so worried that they massaged the numbers. Again, anyone know how Paramount could get weekly sales data from retailers 1 day after the week ended???


Just like I said, let the smearing continue. Paramount went HDDVD, get over it.

I wonder if you applied the same level of scrutiny to the "Casino Royal" numbers, and Sony's famous "shipped" numbers. Me thinks not!

I totally agree. As of last Friday, I became neutral with the purchase of the last A20 at Future Shop. I can't tell you how elated I am that I don't have to worry about which studio is releasing which movie anymore. If it's released in HD, I can buy it!

When I visited these forums after a weekend of watching Transformers and Knocked Up, I realized how ridiculous this format cheerleading is.

This so called format war is going to last for years. Arguing about weekly sales of a particular title is not going to prove anything.

If Transformers wins the week's HDM sales, HD DVD will not be the winning format and if it doesn't win, it doesn't mean that HD DVD loses.

Enough with starting threads intended to insight anger and frustration.

Let's just enjoy our movies!

here here! :D

Just like I said, let the smearing continue. Paramount went HDDVD, get over it.

Smearing??? I just wanna know how Paramount could get the data that fast? Or do you think it's not suspicious that they are talking about "sales" from a day before? You realize that retailers don't usually make that kind of data available that quickly, right?

I wonder if you applied the same level of scrutiny to the "Casino Royal" numbers, and Sony's famous "shipped" numbers. Me thinks not!

Me thinks so. I pointed out almost immediately that it said shipped. It was still a milestone at the time. And I have no doubt what so ever that Transformer's on HD DVD surpassed Casino Royale in both numbers shipped and numbers sold through to consumers. I do doubt that Paramount could have had access to the retail numbers so fast, but we'll find out Friday.

Of course you are right, but DVD empire (whose percentages are based on their actual sales numbers) also showed Blu-ray ahead all week (albeit in the 54-58% range).Actually - a quick check shows that the ratio on DVD Empire for the week was actually 51.23% to Bluray and 48.77% to HD DVD.

Of course their sales numbers may not be indicative of sales as a whole, but they seem to shore up RdJam's arguement.Thanks! Yes - because DVD Empire didn't have the BOGOF sale, I believe that their numbers will not track well with Nielsen this week.

I'm still not convinced that Paramount was truly giving us numbers sold to customers (as opposed to sold to vendors). Don't flame me...No flame necessary - just a question. Do you HONESTLY believe that Paramount shipped ONLY 190 K copies to distribution?

Ask RdJam...I don't agree with him if I don't have to ;) We'll find out in a few days I guess.Yes - Hammie is correct. Amazon's rankings need MUCH more interpretation than other "sales based" sources. It's very tough to interpret Amazon, as any volume changes can totally change your guess, since, at the end of the day, they still compare HDM to regular DVD volumes also.

My original 75:25 guess was based on my conclusion that volumes are much higher this week, due to both TF and the BOGOF.

More like why was BD was so worried about 1 lost week? I have never seen such tactics used against ONE title. How many threads have we seen decrying the lack of "lossless".? How many threads have we seen saying "No biggie, I will wait until its on BD, or I will get it on DVD"

Why such a massive effort to smear this title by the BD crowd??? The BD crowd was talking about this title more than HDDVD fans.

Something to ponder!They are clearly worried about the PR damage of an HD DVD in any week at all - given their party line that HD DVD is all but dead.

This is further reinforced by the press releases they have sent out today...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12003552#post12003552

Thanks! Yes - because DVD Empire didn't have the BOGOF sale, I believe that their numbers will not track well with Nielsen this week.

You are correct. Creepy how often we're agreeing :D

No flame necessary - just a question. Do you HONESTLY believe that Paramount shipped ONLY 190 K copies to distribution?

I think it's possible; I'm not sure it's likely, but that almost exactly how I feel about 190k as their sell-through numbers. In addition to the DVD empire data (which showed BD ahead without a BOGO) I'll make two other points:

1) There were unsubstantiated claims that there were shipping problems with TF. Could be totally bogus, but if true would explain the only 190k shipped number

2) I still honestly question how Paramount could have access to multiple retailers sell-through numbers a day after the week they are reporting. It may be possible, but not in line with normal industry practice as I understand it.

Again, I would not be shocked if they did sell 190k, I'm just having trouble reconciling it with the DVDempire data (and to a lesser degree the Amazon data), and some personal communications I've had with Blockbuster employees who claim they weren't happy with the sell-through rate of either version of TF.

I am personally willing to accept that all of this may be wrong/speculative and/or have other explanations. Again, we will presumable find out in 2 days. There are just some oddities I'm not comfortable with.

Otoh, if either of us are right here, my guess for the week will be horribly wrong; I assumed that TF almost equaled the BOGO sale. So I'm gonna be wrong one way or another :o

Here will be the first thing out of the BD association:

"Transformers would have sold more if it was on Blu-ray". lol

Though I will admit that the next coming months for HD DVD releases seemed rather thin with only a few titles to pick up.

First off, I have to give props to HD-DVD, not only did their plan work to sell a huge title and reenergize the public to HD-DVD, it worked beautifully, I honestly would not be shocked if the numbers this week are 20:80 in favor of HD-DVD. Hats off to them. I guess I should be REALLY glad that I am format neutral.

Another great thread Merrick! Kudos to you.

It is now obvious the power a blockbuster title can have on day and date sales.
Up until now there hasn't been a huge day and date blockbuster released in HD. I dont consider 300 to be a major blockbuster that is going to appeal to families. What will the numbers be once Spi... eh no-need-to-list-them-we-know-what-they-are hit bluray?

I would expect to see at least one of the big BD titles top Transformers. But Shrek3 could be huge as well.

So how can this be good for bluray?

Good in the sense that there is growing HDM demand. Bad in the sense that it makes it more difficult to say BD has won.

The BDA is no doubt going to respond in a way to minimize the impact of Transformers on HD-DVD and this could actually be a good thing.
How might they do that?

Well there was the BOGO of course. If they sold more discs that week they'll shout it from the rooftops, if they didn't I expect them to ignore the subject.

They could finally lower the cost of standalone players.

They could step up their advertising, because frankly the amount of bluray ads I have seen on J6P TV has been very low compared to HD-DVD promotion.

Personally, I think they need to offer a huge firesale on their 1.0 players to make way for 1.1 spec players.

I expect that the $399 PS3 will be the cheapest BD player this Christmas, with the possible exception of some liquidation actions to flush out 1.0 players. I think that's at a low probability, and I expect they'll hold off on liquidating 1.0 players until early 2008 though. The smartest thing they can do is drop prices more on players for Christmas, but I just don't think that's in the cards. The next best thing would be to announce that they plan to provide a free BD 1.1 upgrade for the PS3. I think that's unlikely as well.

I do expect to see their advertising increase in November and December.

rdjam recently asked the question do you now think competition is good and I agreed in some ways, but now Im inclined to agree 100%. If Transformers is what it takes to get them off their asses and truly penetrate the market then so be it.

However, its quite possible that the BDA will do nothing. Who knows?

I ask you:
How will the BDA respond to this?

I think they will do little to nothing on the hardware side. I think they will do more BOGO activity on the software side to finish strong for the year. They want to show up at CES in January proclaiming that the war is over. I think software sales numbers will be the centerpiece of that argument along with a BD installed base number that includes every PS3 and stand alone player sold. The PS3 numbers will help them pump their chest up for the hardware sales numbers.

You are correct. Creepy how often we're agreeing :D



I think it's possible; I'm not sure it's likely, but that almost exactly how I feel about 190k as their sell-through numbers. In addition to the DVD empire data (which showed BD ahead without a BOGO) I'll make two other points:

1) There were unsubstantiated claims that there were shipping problems with TF. Could be totally bogus, but if true would explain the only 190k shipped number

2) I still honestly question how Paramount could have access to multiple retailers sell-through numbers a day after the week they are reporting. It may be possible, but not in line with normal industry practice as I understand it.

Again, I would not be shocked if they did sell 190k, I'm just having trouble reconciling it with the DVDempire data (and to a lesser degree the Amazon data), and some personal communications I've had with Blockbuster employees who claim they weren't happy with the sell-through rate of either version of TF.

I am personally willing to accept that all of this may be wrong/speculative and/or have other explanations. Again, we will presumable find out in 2 days. There are just some oddities I'm not comfortable with.

Otoh, if either of us are right here, my guess for the week will be horribly wrong; I assumed that TF almost equaled the BOGO sale. So I'm gonna be wrong one way or another :o

The wife and I did NOT see Transformers in the local cinemas. We read the reviews and thought it would be "silly." We also mostly think Michael Bay couldn't direct both hands to his behind without a lot of effort.

But, guess what? We knew we wanted this baby on HD DVD as a showcase for HD PQ and AQ. And it was all that--plus being a great deal of fun.

I'm sure that's why this film sold so many discs the first week; that's why a remarkably high percentage of HD DVD player owners bought it.:cool:

You are correct. Creepy how often we're agreeing :DScary! :D Pretty soon they'll be asking you: "Are you Amir?" ;)

Scary! :D Pretty soon they'll be asking you: "Are you Amir?" ;)

Only schizophrenics argue with themselves that much... :p

I think everyone is at a loss for words - there's just too much love going on here :)

I think everyone is at a loss for words - there's just too much love going on here :)

I think part of it is that there are several intractible lines of evidence, and it's going to be hard to believe no matter what. I know my line of reasoning is only one of many possibilities (all of them improbable seeming to me) so I'll hardly be shocked at almost any result tomorrow.

I can't wait :)

The Transformers deal and the BOGO promotion is a tempest in a teapot. Look at the number of standard DVDs sold. All this stuff is doing is helping make HD media a niche or failing market. I believe the only way this will end is for Blu-ray to seriously discount prices on stand alones AND release the big titles. They have a bunch to choose from: Lawrence of Arabia, James Bond, all the Pixar movies, for example. Blu-ray could have ended this war, they either chose not to or have executives with no gray matter. I just don't see HD-DVD being able to pull this out absent a huge development.

The Transformers deal and the BOGO promotion is a tempest in a teapot. Look at the number of standard DVDs sold. All this stuff is doing is helping make HD media a niche or failing market. I believe the only way this will end is for Blu-ray to seriously discount prices on stand alones AND release the big titles. They have a bunch to choose from: Lawrence of Arabia, James Bond, all the Pixar movies, for example. Blu-ray could have ended this war, they either chose not to or have executives with no gray matter. I just don't see HD-DVD being able to pull this out absent a huge development.

Yes...and that would be $198 Toshibas at Wal-Mart on 11/03/07!:cool:

The Transformers deal and the BOGO promotion is a tempest in a teapot. Look at the number of standard DVDs sold. All this stuff is doing is helping make HD media a niche or failing market. I believe the only way this will end is for Blu-ray to seriously discount prices on stand alones AND release the big titles. They have a bunch to choose from: Lawrence of Arabia, James Bond, all the Pixar movies, for example. Blu-ray could have ended this war, they either chose not to or have executives with no gray matter. I just don't see HD-DVD being able to pull this out absent a huge development.

Oy. Pound for pound, the Q-U-A-L-I-T-Y of releases for HD DVD is on par with the BR stuff, if not better for HD DVD - of course movie taste is totally subjective, you love the BR movies, cool, I happen to prefer the stuff I see for HD DVD...if either side could've swiftly ended it already though, they would have. BR is in no better position to end it soon then HD DVD, sorry.

I personally think it'll be J6P and the remaining neutral studios themselves that decide it now (especially since a big one has already hinted at this), eventually they'll say enough is enough with this dual format crap, simply weigh all factors, pick a side and that'll do it, the beginning of the end for the format left short handed, and at this point in time, it could be either one, regardless of what people say here.

Yes...and that would be $198 Toshibas at Wal-Mart on 11/03/07!:cool:

I still don't think that will do it. Prices only drive sales when consumer interest is already high, and conversely when interest is high product will sell better even before price drops (look how many frickin' iPhones sold at $500-$600!).

I know we are all rabidly interested in one or the other (or both) format(s), but until there is one format most consumers are simply not going to get interested.

Yes...and that would be $198 Toshibas at Wal-Mart on 11/03/07!:cool:

If these players aren't generally bought by people who already own HD DVD players, I'll be pleasantly surprised. More often than not, I hear people talking about getting their second, third, or fourth HD DVD player! :eek:

I think part of it is that there are several intractible lines of evidence, and it's going to be hard to believe no matter what. I know my line of reasoning is only one of many possibilities (all of them improbable seeming to me) so I'll hardly be shocked at almost any result tomorrow.

I can't wait :)Of course, you know I'll be thrilled if HD DVD kicks Bluray's tail in the numbers tomorrow. But judging from my trackers, I'm guessing the BOGO BD sale had a very big impact on the numbers and pulled BD up.

Yes - the suspense is killing me too, this has been the longest week in a while. The signs have been so confusing this time, that everyone's guesses are all over the shop. I think we are all dying to know what the real numbers are...

I still don't think that will do it. Prices only drive sales when consumer interest is already high, and conversely when interest is high product will sell better even before price drops (look how many frickin' iPhones sold at $500-$600!).I hate to interupt our lovefest to remind you, but the iPhone is in the process of flopping massively. The analogies are similar to the PS3. It launched at $600 without much software, sold some big initial demand, and then the sales fell off to almost nothing...

If these players aren't generally bought by people who already own HD DVD players, I'll be pleasantly surprised. More often than not, I hear people talking about getting their second, third, or fourth HD DVD player! :eek:What would be the use of so many HD-DVD players? Force captured Blu-ray fans being held captive in chains in the basement to watch HD-DVD movies 24/7?:):)

Where are you getting your iPhone info? By all accounts, it is still selling well, more so at it's new price point. Many different phone companies are scared poopless of the iPhone. But that's neither here nor there.

BTW, I think the iPhone/PS3 analogy, if that's the one you're making, is a horrible one. :rolleyes:

in fact:

"Apple also said it sold 1.12 million iPhones during what was the first full quarter that the combination iPod and cell phone had been on sale. Apple previously said it sold more than 1 million iPhones during its fourth quarter, and has now sold almost 1.4 million iPhones since the device was released on June 29."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apple-surges-new-highs-following/story.aspx?guid=62384186-187A-490F-B1A2-86025C7A6037&dist=SecMostRead

Of course, you know I'll be thrilled if HD DVD kicks Bluray's tail in the numbers tomorrow. But judging from my trackers, I'm guessing the BOGO BD sale had a very big impact on the numbers and pulled BD up.

Yes - the suspense is killing me too, this has been the longest week in a while. The signs have been so confusing this time, that everyone's guesses are all over the shop. I think we are all dying to know what the real numbers are...

I hate to interupt our lovefest to remind you, but the iPhone is in the process of flopping massively. The analogies are similar to the PS3. It launched at $600 without much software, sold some big initial demand, and then the sales fell off to almost nothing...

What would be the use of so many HD-DVD players? Force captured Blu-ray fans being held captive in chains in the basement to watch HD-DVD movies 24/7?:):)

That's the rumor! Then they'll be forced to repeat, over and over, "DD+ is good enough....DD+ is good enough!" :p

That's the rumor! Then they'll be forced to repeat, over and over, "DD+ is good enough....DD+ is good enough!" :p

I will gladly take DD+ to avoid BD+. ;)

I will glad take DD+ to avoid BD+. ;)

:D

I will glad take DD+ to avoid BD+. ;)

Good one!

Where are you getting your iPhone info? By all accounts, it is still selling well, more so at it's new price point. It's been widely reported, and also in industry papers, that the iPhone sales have slowed dramatically now that the initial demand was filled.

Many different phone companies are scared poopless of the iPhone. But that's neither here nor there. BTW, I think the iPhone/PS3 analogy, if that's the one you're making, is a horrible one. I think the analogy is pretty good, myself.

However, it is different in one respect, I think Apple opened themselves up to competitive products outdoing them because (1) they didn't let users have the option of installing their own desired software, such as Palm, CE and Blackberry devices do (2) priced very high (3) lack of 3G in a multimedia phone (4) force users to open new accounts, even if they already have an existing ATT business account.

Within 6 months there will be many devices that mimick iPhone functionality yet do no have some of it's above-mentioned failings - such as the HTC Touch.

This is not to say that I do not like the iPhone, however (as I certainly like it more than I like the PS3) but that I was frustrated by these failings and decided NOT to purchase it as a result.

I will gladly take DD+ to avoid BD+. ;)

:D:D

That's how you say +2 with Big Grin Smily's.

I'd love to see those links! Last I checked, when Apple reported its quarterly earning, things were looking great for the iPhone.

I completely understand your misgivings with the iPhone. But the fact is, customers are WILDLY more satisfied with their iPhones than any other phone. Most people aren't begging Apple to be able to install Windows on their phones! ;) And 2), that's where their recent price drop came into the pictures -- and any future iPhones will likely come in at even cheaper price points. 3) the 3G thing may be less of a big deal than some thought, considering how many people don't get full 3G speeds anyway. So, add in the WiFi and improved battery life, and it was apparently a trade-off Apple felt was worth making at this point. 4) Personally, I'm just bummed they picked ATT....stupid Verizon. :p

My guess is, there will be TONS of phones that "mimic" the iPhone's interface. But my other guess is like the iPods, with tons of "iPod killers," Apple will find a steady stream of customers who won't take a "close enough iPhone" if they can get the real thing. The fact is, no one in the phone industry knows GUI and ease of use like Apple! (Stupid Verizon GUI!!!! :mad: )

My apologies for the off-topic post.

It's been widely reported, and also in industry papers, that the iPhone sales have slowed dramatically now that the initial demand was filled.

I think the analogy is pretty good, myself.

However, it is different in one respect, I think Apple opened themselves up to competitive products outdoing them because (1) they didn't let users have the option of installing their own desired software, such as Palm, CE and Blackberry devices do (2) priced very high (3) lack of 3G in a multimedia phone (4) force users to open new accounts, even if they already have an existing ATT business account.

Within 6 months there will be many devices that mimick iPhone functionality yet do no have some of it's above-mentioned failings - such as the HTC Touch.

This is not to say that I do not like the iPhone, however (as I certainly like it more than I like the PS3) but that I was frustrated by these failings and decided NOT to purchase it as a result.

I will gladly take DD+ to avoid BD+. ;)


Strange. I'd say the exact opposite. I'd gladly take BD+ to avoid DD+ and have lossless instead.

BD+ is why Fox is releasing content. Without it, they'd settle for DVD. ;) I'd rather have Fox than not. Sorry.