Which of these upcoming releases will unseat Transformers (190,000 HD DVDs) or 300 (250,000 Blu-ray and HD DVDs) as a first week best seller of 2007?

Edited to include the results as they come in

300: 250,000 combined (165,000 Blu-ray and 85,000 HD DVD)
Transformers: 190,000 HD DVD (disputed)
Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End: 160,000 Blu-ray
Spider-Man 3: 130,000 Blu-ray (probably 75,000 S3 and 55,000 Trilogy Boxset)
Live Free or Die Hard: ~70,000 Blu-ray (individual and box set)
Ratatouille: 65,000 Blu-ray (guess for now until Disney publishes a number)
Shrek the Third: 32,500 HD DVD (estimate based on Dave Vaughn's comments)
Star Trek: TOS: ~5,000 Combos

I'll say the only one that stands a chance is Harry Potter since it's a big franchise, the movie is considered good, and it's being released on both formats (the perfect tri-fecta).

Transformers for individual format and Harry for dual.

Don't you think there are at least a quarter of a million trekkers out there?

I put Pirates but missed the dual format HP5. That's going to take it...Pirates 3 though, will definitely be the top selling single format title though. I've got no doubt it'll smash this TF record.

Don't you think there are at least a quarter of a million trekkers out there?

You realize that set is gonna be a couple hundred bucks, right?

I put Spidey 3, but the boxed set and giveaways will certainly take a good portion of the single release sales... I myself am planning on the trilogy box.

I went with Pirates.

-Brian

You realize that set is gonna be a couple hundred bucks, right?

I put Spidey 3, but the boxed set and giveaways will certainly take a good portion of the single release sales... I myself am planning on the trilogy box.

$130 at Amazon, slightly more in B&M.

You realize that set is gonna be a couple hundred bucks, right?

$130 on Amazon. But I am not relying on high-def fans to buy this set. I predict majority of Trekkers picking this up will not have a HD DVD player (but may buy one soon after).

I think HP5 will be the top seller in more conventional sense. I am somewhat surprised by all those voting none or those voting for Simpson's and Ratatouille.

You also realize the DVD sets just released a couple years ago (gold/red/blue boxes) dropped from their $99 original price to the 50-60 range at many places like Target and the like? Or do you just think the Trekkies will buy again, this soon, for this much money (especially if they bought the first sets early on in their release lol rapage)?

I believe that people are underestimating the buying power of trekkers as a whole... there are going to be a LOT of units moved for TOS S1.

I'm talking about people who have not bought into HDM, but are wanting the SD version of the shows with the new effects.

It's odd that those Spiderman films have now been released on BD all around the world for a while but not in the US. Anyway, I too am really curious how well those Trek sets will do.
I watched that promo-clip for it a while ago and it certainly looked like the ultimate geek set for fans of the series. Didn't the set have a bunch of HD exclusivities and gadgets on it as well ? How big is that "Trek" fanbase ?

I believe that people are underestimating the buying power of trekkers as a whole... there are going to be a LOT of units moved for TOS S1.

I'm talking about people who have not bought into HDM, but are wanting the SD version of the shows with the new effects.

I "like" Star Trek, but for me the price is simply too high. If later they drop the price, I would buy it, but I guess I am not a true "trekkie."

The only one which confuses me is the The Simpsons Movie.

Nothing like it (popularity, media hype, etc.) has every really been released on DVD or HD media and it might actually fly off the shelves or it could totally bomb on HD.

No idea at all how that will go.

Is this US and Canada? and how do box sets count?

I can't believe Die Hard 4 is an option. Die Hard 4?

Is this US and Canada? and how do box sets count?

This would be whatever Nielson tracks. I think that it's US and Canada. Mexico may be included, but in any case, I think any sales outside of US and Canada would be very small.

Box sets would count for numerical number of titles sold (not dollar amount). For example, Spiderman 3 total would include all individual SM3 as well as box set of SM trilogy. HP5 would include all individual HP5 in Blu-ray and HD DVD as well as HP box sets in Blu-ray and HD DVD.

Box sets are tough, otherwise I'd have picked Potter.

I can't believe Die Hard 4 is an option. Die Hard 4?

Why? Live Free or Die Harder was one of better received sequels this year and since it's going to be Day and Date release alongside DVD, it has a chance of making a decent showing. Probably no where near the top, but probably better than FF: RoSS or Ratatouille.

It's amazing that only one of the options is dual-formatted. Ever since the Paramount defection, we are truly a nation divided.

Transformers did very, very well but IMO the several million installed base for PS3 will really make a difference for Spiderman 3 as the demographics for this movie and the PS3 crowd is a near-perfect fit.

I would not be surprised at all if Spiderman 3 BD sells significantly more in its first week than Transformers.

EDIT: Read the question wrong...

I read it as what will be the first title in 2007 to out beat Transformers or 300? Thinking it should have said 2008.

Transformers did very, very well but IMO the several million installed base for PS3 will really make a difference for Spiderman 3 as the demographics for this movie and the PS3 crowd is a near-perfect fit.

I would not be surprised at all if Spiderman 3 BD sells significantly more in its first week than Transformers.

+1. SM3/PS3 is the perfect storm for Blu-Ray.

The Harry Potter boxed set along with individual Harry Potter HDM sales will probably be the winning franchise, dollar wise, in HDM this year.

Bill

I went with Pirates.

-Brian

I agree, I put pirates on top. Main reason ps3's. Had transformers been released in both formats the gamers would have pushed hd sells well over half a million in my opinion. Still can not understand why they released Transformers with no lossless audio.

I think Pirates will take it. It is such juggernaut of a franchise that appeals to so many different demographics. I mean, who doesn't have a Jack Sparrow lunchbox?:)

You realize that set is gonna be a couple hundred bucks, right?


$132.95 on Amazon.com

I think Pirates will take it. It is such juggernaut of a franchise that appeals to so many different demographics. I mean, who doesn't have a Jack Sparrow lunchbox?:)

I just don't understand the huge popularity of these movies, I watched (even bought) the first two and I think both films are incredibly flawed, very unfunny, terribly paced and waaaay too long. Are these "the ultimate PS3" BD films ? I don't get it.

EDIT: Read the question wrong...

I read it as what will be the first title in 2007 to out beat Transformers or 300? Thinking it should have said 2008.

Huh? All these movies are coming to high-def in 2007 and therefore their first week of release will also be in 2007. The question is which movie will have the highest number of sales during it's first week of release.

All these movies will sell very well. It's very hard to choose one...

This is surprising to me. SM3 was the biggest blockbuster of the year. It is being sold separately and as part of a trilogy, with the other two mega-blockbusters in the series. The other two are not being released separately, and SM2 was highly regarded, even among the critics. SM3 is being heavily advertised by Sony. And it perfectly matches the PS3 demographic and also demographically resembles the other two HD blockbusters to date, 300 and Transformers.

This seems like an easy choice to me. But that probably means I'm wrong.

All these movies will sell very well. It's very hard to choose one...

9 big releases in little over 2 months. We, dual format owners, are going to be in heaven.

I am surprised that Die Hard 4 is not getting any love.:o

Where's the option that 300 will win both and the Paramount press release is actually units sold to retailers?

I actually think the only title that has a real chance of beating these numbers is Harry Potter. HP is a juggernaut of a series and an instant seller. I also think that including SM3 with the PS3 will hurt the sales number of the title.

Where's the option that 300 will win both and the Paramount press release is actually units sold to retailers?

Last option - None, Transformers/300 will not be beat.

Was that not clear?

Last option - None, Transformers/300 will not be beat.

Was that not clear?

No, because I'm not convinced that Transformer's beat 300 yet, so that isn't the only option for 300 (it may yet win both single and multiple format sales awards...although I hope not).

All these movies will sell very well. It's very hard to choose one...


I chose Shrek3.....:)

Maybe a better question is which one will bomb on Hi Def?

No, because I'm not convinced that Transformer's beat 300 yet, so that isn't the only option for 300 (it may yet win both single and multiple format sales awards...although I hope not).

Alright then I take it that you don't think any of these others will take the crown.

I put Transformers/300 into the same category for similar reasons. It seems that even if Transformers really sell 190,000 copies the first week, it's still less than 250,000 total copies for 300. I didn't want to get into that pickle, so I lumped them together. However for the purposes of this poll, HP5 is total sold across both formats, not Blu-ray vs. HD DVD.

I chose Shrek3.....:)

Maybe a better question is which one will bomb on Hi Def?

I predict




"Ratatouille".

Not because I think it's a bad movie or won't sell. I think it will sell a ton, but on SD DVD rather than Blu-ray. This will be followed by Shrek the Third and Simpson's Movie. I just don't think animated movies have the same high-def appeal as others on this list.

I predict




"Ratatouille".

Not because I think it's a bad movie or won't sell. I think it will sell a ton, but on SD DVD rather than Blu-ray. This will be followed by Shrek the Third and Simpson's Movie. I just don't think animated movies have the same high-def appeal as others on this list.

I disagree. First movies I look for since a) Looks fantastic in HiDef, b) my time to watch movies is limited, so I need something I can watch with my daughter, usually.

That said, many people think animation looks great upconverted (and it does, but it doesn't hold a candle to true hd).

Last thing I would buy in HD is most comedies. PQ/AQ does not give me much on those.

I disagree. First movies I look for since a) Looks fantastic in HiDef, b) my time to watch movies is limited, so I need something I can watch with my daughter, usually.

That said, many people think animation looks great upconverted (and it does, but it doesn't hold a candle to true hd).

Last thing I would buy in HD is most comedies. PQ/AQ does not give me much on those.

No comedies on that list other than maybe Simpsons, Ratatouille and Shrek, all of which are animated. So you are supporting my argument there:p

Hmm. I can't believe more people aren't picking Star Trek. yes it's expensive, but it's also the only way to get it even for regular DVD people. Remember when the first SNG seasons came out? They were almost $200 a season.

I think the trekkies will come through and will literally blow past all other sales. I'd even go so far as to say that this will be the first HD-DVD release to pass 1 million in sales. (not in the first week though ;))

No comedies on that list other than maybe Simpsons, Ratatouille and Shrek, all of which are animated. So you are supporting my argument there:p

hehe, Animation takes presedence! :) I'm thinking movies like Superbad, or already released Evan almighty/Knocked Up

I went with HP:OotP... but I've begun wondering with some many blockbusters coming out any chance they start eating into one anothers sales? It would be nice to have had the release dates listed as well for those of us that are too lazy.. maybe you can update your first post.

Top 3:
300
Transformers
Harry Potter

(may not be in that order)

This along with Star Trek and Heroes is why I like HD DVD!

I think Pirates of the Caribbean will probably be the bestseller in a single format. But, since Harry Potter is (will be) available in both BD and HD DVD, I think this will sell more HDM-disks in total.

I'm guessing a dual format movie will maintain the lead. Either 300 or HP. If HP box sets only counts as single movie, then 300 will probably keep its lead. Transformers didn't even come close, which isn't surprising.

As long as Harry Potter is available as an individual day and date, nothing can trump it. If it's box set only, then it will be Pirates, Spiderman or Transformers.

Unfortunately, the only "excellent" choice will be ignored by shoppers. That's okay. I look forward to buying Bourne Ultimatum. However, I don't think it will even beat Ratatouille or Shrek 3.

Halo 3 will win

It is like a movie you play.

It looks like Spider-Man 3 Blu-ray didn't live up to expectations. So scratch that one off your list.

Video Business Article on Spider-Man 3 (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6497148.html)

Spider-Man 3 swings strong sales
Title represented Sony's biggest Blu-ray shipment to date
By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 11/2/2007

NOV. 2 | With no strong competition hitting stores Oct. 23, Paramount Home Entertainment’s Transformers rode to the top of the DVD sellers chart for a second week. Then Spider-Man 3 swung in Oct. 30 as the second of the season’s elite club of $300 million-plus-grossing films. But despite a strong performance, some retailers reported that the webbed one wasn’t strong enough to take Transformers down.

Sony Pictures Home Entertainment executives would not discuss Spider-Man 3 sell-through last week, though they did confirm that the title repped the studio’s largest Blu-ray shipment to date.

There is some thought that competition from the Oct. 28 videogame bow of Guitar Hero III cut into Spider-Man 3 street date sales, as the two properties cater to the same young male demographic. Guitar Hero, for instance,was splashed across the front covers of Oct. 28 Best Buy and Target advertising circulars, with Spider-Man 3 more heavily featured within the retailers’ inside pages.

But regardless of differences between Transformers and Spider-Man 3, retailers said the fourth quarter is tracking healthily, as had been anticipated. Virgin Megastores noted that its October 2007 DVD sales are up by double digits over the same month last year.

“Transformers was a phenomenon, with record-breaking first-day numbers,” Virgin senior product manager Chris Anstey said. “Spider-Man 3 is extending the success of one of the biggest franchises of the decade but is being given a run for its money with Transformers. Of course, the important thing is shelf life; both Spidey and Transformers should both do very well right through the holidays.”

Anstey said that Transformers outsold Spider-Man 3 on first-day sales by about three times. Newbury Comics reported a similar ratio, though a Tuesday parade for the local World Series winner, the Boston Red Sox, likely bit into the retailer’s own day-one Spider-Man 3 sales.

“I think it will continue [selling] through the holidays,” said Newbury buyer Ian Leshin. Newbury has been boosting Spider-Man 3 sales by giving away free Spider-Man-themed pint glasses with purchase of any SKU.

Next up are Walt Disney Home Entertainment’s Ratatouille and Universal Studios Home Entertainment’s I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry on Nov. 6 before the next monster—Paramount and DreamWorks’ Shrek the Third—lands Nov. 13.

If anything has a chance I think it will be the Potter set.

I put down Spider-Man 3 as 130,000 sold based on Sony statements, Nielsen breakdown, and confirmation by Paidgeek, a Sony insider.

Now where will Ratatouille fall next week?

Edited to include confirmation statement from Paidgeek.

I am afraid to post any updates on this given new forum rules.

Nielsen numbers are out. I'm putting Ratatouille number at 65,000 for now based on Dave Vaughn's post of this being ~10% less than Spider-Man 3 Blu-ray (single title not including Trilogy) sold the week before. I'll revise the number if we get something more official from Disney.

Shrek the Third number was estimated to be 32,500 based on comments by Dave Vaughn stating that it sold about 1/2 the volume of Ratatouille Blu-ray. Numbers seem to be going in the wrong direction. Next week will be interesting with ST:TOS and Live Free or Die Hard. Again the numbers will be revised when more official data is released.