Eventually HDM downloads will be available to all even in remote areas simply because of towers. I believe this is closer than many think and while it may not be the death of BD/HD DVD, it seems as though it will certainly impact them or keep them as they currently are, niche. The second of course is dependent on increasing the download speeds, but in time, a short time I believe.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_hi_te/un_wimax;_ylt=AlomLIuFGhJcLisrRT8b1w2s0NUE

and from our own forum:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=927883

how long does it take you to download 30GB? 50?
how long does it take you to go to BB?

this will attract the netflix crown, but the J6P will stick to rentals even with Fios 20/20.

BTW, i cant wait for downloads.

This is still many years away for most of America. An announcement is a long way away from actual deployment completion.

I also think the older generations will not buy into it as much as the teens and 20 somethings of today.

Instead of keeping my movie on $0.99 DVDs I will have to buy $200 hard drive for every 4 movies? I don’t think so.

how long does it take you to download 30GB? 50?
how long does it take you to go to BB?

this will attract the netflix crown, but the J6P will stick to rentals even with Fios 20/20.

BTW, i cant wait for downloads.


J6P is you and I now and "his" status is greatly under rated. J6P is the netflix crowd. I live in a relatively rural area where there are many loggers/ranchers/rednecks and they use Netflix and download. They have internet and their children are downloading music and movies to their Ipods. It will be just a matter of transition to HDM media. J6P is not the issue, getting the speedy downloads to him maybe, but that is what the above links are resolving. The average joe is no longer average and more tech savvy then many on here give him credit for. And a lot of J6P is already doing VOD. When they know that Netflix and other B&M's go to downloading, they won't be going to the store or even renting the hard copy media anymore. Why would they. No mail and no waiting.


We are projecting our wants if we think it will be HD DVD and BD that excels above HDM downloads.

Instead of keeping my movie on $0.99 DVDs I will have to buy $200 hard drive for every 4 movies? I don’t think so.

another myth. Not everyone wants to archive a movie they watch once or a few times. They pay, it gets deleted or unwatcheable after the time limit expires. Again, AVS members projecting onto the majority who will watch and move on.

This is still many years away for most of America. An announcement is a long way away from actual deployment completion.

I also think the older generations will not buy into it as much as the teens and 20 somethings of today.


Towers are almost everwhere right now and Wimax is here right now. Also the OTA stations towers when freed in 2009 due to digital transition will broadcast a Wimax or high speed download capability as well.

This isn't going to happen it already is.

There is one thing that make me launch about this is all the noise about Internet high speed penetration.

Half of the peoples I know that have high speed internet, have their high speed internet router connected to wireless network. For sure they don’t have and they are not planning to have their cabling done in the house to bring internet to the living room.

My call on this is until we get wireless network with enough bandwidth to address HD needs, HD will be mostly being distributed on optical disks. For the average peoples this is really for from now.

another myth. Not everyone wants to archive a movie they watch once or a few times. They pay, it gets deleted or unwatcheable after the time limit expires. Again, AVS members projecting onto the majority who will watch and move on.

Umm no, the majority are the families with children.

Those children are more than happy to watch "Finding Nemo" or "Alladin" or "Shrek" or virtually any kid friendly film nearly every day if they were given the option.

Based upon that, which do you think parents will do; buy the disk and let their kids play it until they finally get sick of it, or, give their kids access to a pay per view system and potentially run up charges equal to two or three times the retail cost of the DVD at $0.99 per viewing?

Until real-time downloadable libraries are available, I think physical media will always play a major role. Downloadable HD will be great, I just don't believe it will be here for a while.

Downloads? Time to drag out the link . . .

Panelists: Downloads 10 to 20 years from mainstream

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

I hope Downloads become mainstream as soon as possible and make discs obsolete.

Downloadable content will only ever be complimentary to physical media. It will never supercede it entirely.

Downloads? Time to drag out the link . . .

Panelists: Downloads 10 to 20 years from mainstream

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

From your own link did you see this?

"But he thinks mainstream consumers will start downloading in the next two to four years."

And the Wimax link and digital transition with high speed OTA downloads nullify the link you provided.

Jennifer Netherby is obviously clueless and I even call BS on the quoting hollywood execs saying it will be 10 to 20 years.

That article is seriously flawed Lee and Direct tv is already offering it. Even the porn industry is saying the same.'

I would bury that link again Lee. :D

This is still many years away for most of America. An announcement is a long way away from actual deployment completion.

I also think the older generations will not buy into it as much as the teens and 20 somethings of today.

same can be said for j6p getting hdtv and caring about hd movies...

Downloadable content will only ever be complimentary to physical media. It will never supercede it entirely.

Never is a long time. You think 5-inch plastic disks will still be sold 100 years from now?

The audio CD is already on the way out, though obviously it has many years of life left.

another myth. Not everyone wants to archive a movie they watch once or a few times. They pay, it gets deleted or unwatcheable after the time limit expires. Again, AVS members projecting onto the majority who will watch and move on.

Yes, but us collectors of disc based media should still be able to purchase and enjoy our media and special features and be able to keep it and continue to watch it down the road.

To say that downloads will replace physical media all together is blasphemy in my eyes.

Yes, but us collectors of disc based media should still be able to purchase and enjoy our media and special features and be able to keep it and continue to watch it down the road.

To say that downloads will replace physical media all together is blasphemy in my eyes.

I used to "collect" vinyl albums. Blasphemy and reality don't coexist very well.

Unfortunately maximizing profits override collectors wishes.

Rentrak Report Tracks Growing TV On-Demand Audience

Firm Tracks 1.44 billion Video On Demand Orders in First Half of 2007

http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6494194.html

Eventually HDM downloads will be available to all even in remote areas simply because of towers. I believe this is closer than many think and while it may not be the death of BD/HD DVD, it seems as though it will certainly impact them or keep them as they currently are, niche. The second of course is dependent on increasing the download speeds, but in time, a short time I believe.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_hi_te/un_wimax;_ylt=AlomLIuFGhJcLisrRT8b1w2s0NUE

and from our own forum:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=927883

with how poorly the speeds are here in the U.S I highly doubt a download able service would work. Hell....haven't they been talking about download able movies for 10 years? didn't they say the same damn thing about dvd's that they would be obsolete quick because of download able movies?

another myth. Not everyone wants to archive a movie they watch once or a few times. They pay, it gets deleted or unwatcheable after the time limit expires. Again, AVS members projecting onto the majority who will watch and move on.

Only retards would pay $4.99 to download a HD-Movie once and move on. I pay $13.99 a month to Netflix and watch on average 10 Blu-Ray movies a month. That is $1.40/rental and gives me better quality than I could ever get from movie downloads. The only people I know that actually download music or movies are downloading for free off limewire or other free torrents. Why do you think downloading music off napster was so big? Because it was free. You don't see apple i-tunes saving the music industry do you? The only people willing to pay for media entertainment like music or movies want quality. The moment I can't find my music or movies on a quality disk is the moment I will start stealing the stuff off torrents like others. Thats the big mistake the music industry made.. instead of sticking with CD's and promoting the advantage of them over downloads they foolishly believed the same thieves downloading music for free of Napster would actually pay them to download. HD VOD/downloads will be the same niche market it is today when comparing VOD/SD downloads vs DVD.

with how poorly the speeds are here in the U.S I highly doubt a download able service would work. Hell....haven't they been talking about download able movies for 10 years? didn't they say the same damn thing about dvd's that they would be obsolete quick because of download able movies?

Exactly.. I just made that point in my last response. These foolish companies never learn from their past mistakes and history. The same principles apply this time that exist with DVD against Downloads. DVD's are cheaper to rent and look and sound better than downloading/VOD. The same applies for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD, better picture,better sound, and much cheaper to rent. But wait...it will be different this time.:rolleyes:

Never is a long time. You think 5-inch plastic disks will still be sold 100 years from now?

The audio CD is already on the way out, though obviously it has many years of life left.

He said Physical Media, he did not say Optical disks. Eventually Optical Disks will be replaced with something like Flash Memory, but whatever replaces it, there will always be a demand for physical media.

Download services will only compete with rentals.

This is a replacement for rental, not purchases.

He said Physical Media, he did not say Optical disks. Eventually Optical Disks will be replaced with something like Flash Memory, but whatever replaces it, there will always be a demand for physical media.

Do you think iPod users wish they could carry around a bucket full of preprogrammed flash cards and swap them in and out like tiny CDs? Who wants that?

Music will never be the same as Movies. Music is portable and that's why the iPod has been a success. Movies will always be enjoyed in the confines of a living room or home theater.

This is a replacement for rental, not purchases.

*ding ding ding* Give that man a cigar!

There's a lot more bureaucracy involved with downloads. Currently that bureaucracy is keeping most legal downloads out of Canada. Even in U.S. download operations there are many sides of the business vying for control... look at NBC's withdrawal from iTunes over control of pricing. Even if the technology is ready, the business isn't, at least not yet.

Towers are almost everwhere right now and Wimax is here right now. Also the OTA stations towers when freed in 2009 due to digital transition will broadcast a Wimax or high speed download capability as well.

This isn't going to happen it already is.

Key phrase, emphasis added:

"The real kick comes between two and five years from now," he said, when consumers will start seeing the first mobile phone-style devices using WiMax come on the market.

Broad availability is many years away. Large corporations move slowly. Look how long it took to get any real HD content.

you just wanted to say "moot" didn't you

Only retards would pay $4.99 to download a HD-Movie once and move on. I pay $13.99 a month to Netflix and watch on average 10 Blu-Ray movies a month. That is $1.40/rental and gives me better quality than I could ever get from movie downloads. The only people I know that actually download music or movies are downloading for free off limewire or other free torrents. Why do you think downloading music off napster was so big? Because it was free. You don't see apple i-tunes saving the music industry do you? The only people willing to pay for media entertainment like music or movies want quality. The moment I can't find my music or movies on a quality disk is the moment I will start stealing the stuff off torrents like others. Thats the big mistake the music industry made.. instead of sticking with CD's and promoting the advantage of them over downloads they foolishly believed the same thieves downloading music for free of Napster would actually pay them to download. HD VOD/downloads will be the same niche market it is today when comparing VOD/SD downloads vs DVD.

leaving aside for the moment the fact that you probably should reconsider your name calling and that you should examine your ethics...

what makes you think that they won't price vod in the same way that netflix is priced now???

you just wanted to say "moot" didn't you
ding ding ding! I love when we debate mute vs moot, although most of the time both apply anyway. :D

leaving aside for the moment the fact that you probably should reconsider your name calling and that you should examine your ethics...

what makes you think that they won't price vod in the same way that netflix is priced now???

please teacher can I answer? Because we as AVSer's think we know everthing when in reality what we know and project if far different many times than what the average person wants. And I agree you make a good point.

Downloadable content will only ever be complimentary to physical media. It will never supercede it entirely.

i would agree, but i think that physical media will become complimentary to downloads... for those with children, those who want to have the physical copy, there will be discs available, but for those who are "rent movie, watch movie, return movie", downloading is the future...

people have to remember that they can't look at downloads in the context of today's technology... 10 years ago, i couldn't have been sitting in my recliner surfing the net on my macbook connected to high-speed internet via n-wireless either (not to mention watching beckett blow guys away in hd, but i digress)... don't kid yourself... the technology isn't that far off... whether or not you are ready to embrace it or not isn't relevant...

About 60% of us live in cities, not too many live out in the boonies. That 60% ARE going to be able to download HD movies on demand very soon, within two years. That 60% IS the big market, and that 60% will drive the future.

Overtime the remote areas will also gain access, but that is how it always is, and always will be. I have six major hospitals within 25 minutes of me, I live in the city, I get city benefits. If I lived in Perth I'd have a health centre and maybe one hospital close by, and I wouldn't have the net access I have here.

If I can rent a movie in HD for 2.99 the biggest person to suffer would be the blockbuster shareholder. Before XBL blocked us Canadians I'd rent a movie a week from them. Come December, I'm back to a movie (or two...now that Disney is on XBL in HD) a week.

I will continue to buy HDM, but like now, only the movies I'll watch more than three times in the next few years before this tech goes away.

That is why I don't mind paying 30 bucks a disc. If I, for some odd reason, collected discs, I'd be upset.

Key phrase, emphasis added:

"The real kick comes between two and five years from now," he said, when consumers will start seeing the first mobile phone-style devices using WiMax come on the market.

Broad availability is many years away. Large corporations move slowly. Look how long it took to get any real HD content.


The reason I keep debating this and disagree with responses is if one does a search you will find that the towers for Wimax will be used( not just for cell phones) and OTA analog will be freed in 2009 and can and will be used for HD and highspeed downloads ANYWHERE! Yes in two years is what I am saying and not 10 to 20. The articles are a bit tough to find and obscure but I have seen and read them before. We also need some OTA engineers chiming in because they can verify that the current analog towers are going to be freed with the digital transition and used with set top boxes for these HD and broadband downloads I mentioned.

CBS= Time WARNER
NBC= UNIVERSAL
ABC= DISNEY

i would agree, but i think that physical media will become complimentary to downloads... for those with children, those who want to have the physical copy, there will be discs available, but for those who are "rent movie, watch movie, return movie", downloading is the future...

people have to remember that they can't look at downloads in the context of today's technology... 10 years ago, i couldn't have been sitting in my recliner surfing the net on my macbook connected to high-speed internet via n-wireless either (not to mention watching beckett blow guys away in hd, but i digress)... don't kid yourself... the technology isn't that far off... whether or not you are ready to embrace it or not isn't relevant...

10 years ago, people also enjoyed sitting back and listening to one of their CDs. Nobody does that any more and music has turned into a portable enjoyment. Movies will never be that way, hence downloading will not replace optical discs. Most people still enjoy having a physical collection of movies.

Yes, but us collectors of disc based media should still be able to purchase and enjoy our media and special features and be able to keep it and continue to watch it down the road.

To say that downloads will replace physical media all together is blasphemy in my eyes.

Amen brother. Can we say DIVX (circa 1998?) I thought this is what we fought against in the early days of DVD. You buy, you own.

10 years ago, people also enjoyed sitting back and listening to one of their CDs. Nobody does that any more and music has turned into a portable enjoyment. Movies will never be that way, hence downloading will not replace optical discs. Most people still enjoy having a physical collection of movies.

no, actually, many of us (even those of us who have several ipods ;) ) still sit back and listen to our cds... we might even pop one of those fancy sacd's or dvd-a's in there every now and then... :)

you are making a few mistakes:

1) you are getting hung up in "today's context"... the optical disk is merely today's "delivery method"...

2) you are assuming that movie watching HAS to follow the same assumed evolutionary path (an incorrect assumption, imo, having music on my ipod doesn't mean i listen to any less at home) as music listening in order to movie downloading to become the "delivery method" of choice...

3) music and movies aren't the same thing... i may listen to the same cd 100's of times... not only that, i might listen to 100's of cds 100's of times... that doesn't happen with movies for most people (exception being children who can watch thomas the train 52 million times in succession :) )... there's a HUGE market of "rent, watch, return" out there... i would be willing to bet that there are WAY more people who have 100 cd's than who have 100 dvd's...

Downloading is already here. Transformers sold 190000 DH-DVD copies. I wunder how many people downloaded it instead in a lower quality format. Most people will take quantity and convince over quality.

another myth. Not everyone wants to archive a movie they watch once or a few times. They pay, it gets deleted or unwatcheable after the time limit expires. Again, AVS members projecting onto the majority who will watch and move on.

plus, anyone paying $200 for a 200gb hard drive these days is getting royally screwed. imagine the price of a 500gb HDD in 2 years. uh... $75 max?

no, actually, many of us (even those of us who have several ipods ;) ) still sit back and listen to our cds... we might even pop one of those fancy sacd's or dvd-a's in there every now and then... :)


But people here don't represent the general public. CD sales have dropped dramatically over the past 10 years.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070321-accounting-for-the-big-plunge-in-music-sales-the-digital-singles-effect.html


you are assuming that movie watching HAS to follow the same assumed evolutionary path (an incorrect assumption, imo, having music on my ipod doesn't mean i listen to any less at home) as music listening in order to movie downloading to become the "delivery method" of choice...

Lets face it though, if it wasn't for the rapid decline in CD sales and the rise of music downloading via iTunes, we'd all be less inclined to believe that optical media for movies was coming to an end.

music and movies aren't the same thing... i may listen to the same cd 100's of times... not only that, i might listen to 100's of cds 100's of times... that doesn't happen with movies for most people (exception being children who can watch thomas the train 52 million times in succession :) )... there's a HUGE market of "rent, watch, return" out there... i would be willing to bet that there are WAY more people who have 100 cd's than who have 100 dvd's...

I feel differently in that music gets dated much more easily than motion pictures, and I'm referring to Top 40 music. I have CDs from the 80s that I'll never listen to again. If you're talking about classic rock, that's a different story.

OTOH, I'm willing to see a movie from the 80s or 70s again if it's a classic. A movie like Rocky or Jaws never gets old and ages well with time. I wouldn't watch them 100 times but I'd view them once every few years.

VOD is just another -- more or less convenient -- variation on cable and SAT on demand movies. HDM is a different beast all together..

I have over 700 movies on DVD's and HD DVD's. I would hate to think that I could lose them all because a hard drive blew up.

I have over 700 movies on DVD's and HD DVD's. I would hate to think that I could lose them all because a hard drive blew up.

But if all those movies are available for DNL - then who cares? The idea is to DNL and watch the movie, then remove it. Want to see it again? Just DNL it again.

If every movie ever made was available for DNL and you paid a monthly service charge of say $30 to have unlimited access to all those movies . . .

The issue of "I want to watch it when I want" goes right out the window.

you just wanted to say "moot" didn't you
...and use "Here is" instead of "Here are" and "maybe" instead of "may be"... I'm just sayin'. :)

FWIW, HD downloads will face the same obstacles of adoption that HDM except for 2 things:

1. They won't be competing with another product that does the exact same thing. (studio exclusivity, etc.)


2. The biggest drawback they will have is not only will they struggle (like HDM) because of the lack of HDTV's in homes, but now these HDTV's will potentially need an internet connection to get the movies.

I would not doubt, and this is just pure speculation on my part, that the new HD-DVD included XBOX 360 media center will include the software to download and Buy HD-DVD movies. They already allow the renting of movies over XBOX LIVE, but I believe this new media center they are developing will promote this download to buy feature. It is the logical next step for these systems, and as everyone knows, XBOX 360 and Microsoft already have a good grasp of how to develop online services. Like I said, this is just a guess, but remember you heard it here first if it comes true. LOL. :cool: I just can't see Toshiba and XBOX 360 developing and adding only an HD-DVD drive to their systems a year or two down the road due to the risk involved. Unless, they have something new or bigger to include, such as the ability to download to buy movies.

But people here don't represent the general public. CD sales have dropped dramatically over the past 10 years.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070321-accounting-for-the-big-plunge-in-music-sales-the-digital-singles-effect.html




Lets face it though, if it wasn't for the rapid decline in CD sales and the rise of music downloading via iTunes, we'd all be less inclined to believe that optical media for movies was coming to an end.



I feel differently in that music gets dated much more easily than motion pictures, and I'm referring to Top 40 music. I have CDs from the 80s that I'll never listen to again. If you're talking about classic rock, that's a different story.

OTOH, I'm willing to see a movie from the 80s or 70s again if it's a classic. A movie like Rocky or Jaws never gets old and ages well with time. I wouldn't watch them 100 times but I'd view them once every few years.

a) interesting article. does nothing to back up your point though. the decline in cd sales/increase of download sales doesn't imply that people aren't listening to music at home any less (or listening to it on the go any more). in order for it to back up your point, you'd have to find evidence that those "lost" cd sales weren't already being used as "music on the go" (i.e. ripped to itunes/whatever and used on a portable player). personally, i believe that you are making a HUGE leap of logic to say that because people listen to more "on the go" music that they listen to less sitting at home.

b) no, the rapid growth of itunes plays a minimal factor (if any) in my outlook. the rapid growth of broadband internet access (with more predicted) is what steers me towards it. amoungst many other things. convenience. huge libraries available on demand. and so on.

c) faulty logic on your part... that cd from the 80's may not have aged well, but you still listened to it MANY more times than you might watch a movie (well... unless it REALLY sucked ;) )...

as far as needing a hard drive, etc. why? memory gets cheaper every day... give me enough of it in a box to buffer a stream, and i'm fine. again, people are thinking about "owning" the movie rather than "watching" the movie.

as far as being connected to the internet... well... if you have cable, you are in effect connected to the internet... same deal for satellite... it's not that hard to envision a stb used as an i/p device...

as said before, there is going to be a place for "hard" media, for those who want to hold it in their hands... but for the majority of users, vod really is the next logical step...

Given the choice I would never, ever chose a download over a disk. Backups and drives fail. You can't travel with or loan out the downloaded movie. If downloads came out today, I bet they would be 720p with no lossless sound. At Christmas it is much more enjoyable to give or receive the actual movie rather than some "card" with a key code on it. If my memory serves, Microsoft wanted all HD-DVDs connected to the internet so they could do a "security check" every time you put a disk in. Downloads? No, thanks.

But if all those movies are available for DNL - then who cares? The idea is to DNL and watch the movie, then remove it. Want to see it again? Just DNL it again.

If every movie ever made was available for DNL and you paid a monthly service charge of say $30 to have unlimited access to all those movies . . .

The issue of "I want to watch it when I want" goes right out the window.

I completely agree with this. People constantly quote things like "but the hard drive will blow up!" not realizing if it does, you go get another hard drive and download the movie again when you want to watch it. Of course, if you own 1000 DVDs and your house burns down...

I picture it working much like On-Demand today (with a price/movie or price/month), except the quality will be higher and the download will be faster. It'll be kindof like having a 25,000+ disc changer housed in a secure location off-site impervious to theft, fires, floods, scratches, etc.

Heck something like this could be done today: A box with a paltry 150GB hard drive would hold 3 full BD50s, 6 BD25s, or 5 HD DVDs. Some company like Netflix will come along with a set top box, with a "3 at at time" plan. When you're done watching one, you "delete" it and it automatically starts downloading the next one in your queue.

J6P is you and I now and "his" status is greatly under rated. J6P is the netflix crowd. I live in a relatively rural area where there are many loggers/ranchers/rednecks and they use Netflix and download. They have internet and their children are downloading music and movies to their Ipods. It will be just a matter of transition to HDM media. J6P is not the issue, getting the speedy downloads to him maybe, but that is what the above links are resolving. The average joe is no longer average and more tech savvy then many on here give him credit for. And a lot of J6P is already doing VOD. When they know that Netflix and other B&M's go to downloading, they won't be going to the store or even renting the hard copy media anymore. Why would they. No mail and no waiting.


We are projecting our wants if we think it will be HD DVD and BD that excels above HDM downloads.

Sorry, but I have to disagree. There are 300 million+ people in the US today, and J6P which as a term would normally cover about roughly 60-70% of the middle of those stats. They are not that technically savvy.. The only times they are savvy is when new technology is pushed upon them: cable and satellite started with VOD, free music downloads (great incentive..), hdtv is coming because they are stopping production of old analog tv sets.

There will be a huge portion of the market that will continue to choose the lowest common denominator. Technology is misused frequently, and they by it all, line, sink and hook:
1. Satellite/Cable - Started using mpeg2 to fit more channels, then went to mpeg4. More channels, quality is same or worse than before
2. Music - compressed digital music is compressed to the level it sounds worse than audio tapes of yesteryear.
3. Movies - J6P will happily live with less quality, since DVD will continue to be cheaper for some time to come. (Heck, this is at least the example I have that gives the best quality...DVD was actually pretty good once Anamorphic ones came along...and remember it took a lot of years for VHS to lose, even with the revolution that DVD brought.)

That said, in the LOONG term, I think Downloads will be a major factor. (I just think that it will take a very long time, and in the meantime, neither HDM format will be a huge success unfortunately)

But if all those movies are available for DNL - then who cares? The idea is to DNL and watch the movie, then remove it. Want to see it again? Just DNL it again.

If every movie ever made was available for DNL and you paid a monthly service charge of say $30 to have unlimited access to all those movies . . .

The issue of "I want to watch it when I want" goes right out the window.

Couple of issues:
a) it requires high bandwidth
b) if you *purchase* movies for download, and the company goes out of business, you can never rewatch it.
c) either *rental* or *purchase* options will be sensitive to companies deciding to pull movies off the market / make changes to them. I.e. it could easily be implemented that certain movies are only available to see at certain times, like Disney's Vault. In the Disney case, at least you purchase it when it is out, and can watch it after it is back in the vault.

to the dissenters:

yes. you are correct. for those who want to "own" the movie, you can probably think of many reasons why vod won't work for you. that's all fine and well.

but the fact of the matter is, to those who want to "watch movies" (i'm not an owner, i'm a renter, i don't have many movies at all, but i watch a lot of them), vod would be the best thing since sliced bread. there's many different business models that could work, and not just for j6p, but for many of "us".

it would even work for the "well, what about those children's movies that get watched over and over"... streaming video baby... even if it IS lower quality, who cares??? your 4 year old gonna gripe that thomas isn't in hd and there's no lossless sound?

the bandwidth will be there...
the demand will be there...
so someone will provide it...

With streaming 70 megabits per second, I'm sure the quality will be adaquate. Heck, they can even include a TrueHD audio track with that bandwidth.

I think it would be cool to keyword search a database of 60,000 HD movie titles using your remote, then instantly start watching it from any room in your house. Sign me up for the $19.99/month unlimited plan NOW! :D

Sorry, but I have to disagree. There are 300 million+ people in the US today, and J6P which as a term would normally cover about roughly 60-70% of the middle of those stats. They are not that technically savvy.. The only times they are savvy is when new technology is pushed upon them: cable and satellite started with VOD, free music downloads (great incentive..), hdtv is coming because they are stopping production of old analog tv sets.

There will be a huge portion of the market that will continue to choose the lowest common denominator. Technology is misused frequently, and they by it all, line, sink and hook:
1. Satellite/Cable - Started using mpeg2 to fit more channels, then went to mpeg4. More channels, quality is same or worse than before
2. Music - compressed digital music is compressed to the level it sounds worse than audio tapes of yesteryear.
3. Movies - J6P will happily live with less quality, since DVD will continue to be cheaper for some time to come. (Heck, this is at least the example I have that gives the best quality...DVD was actually pretty good once Anamorphic ones came along...and remember it took a lot of years for VHS to lose, even with the revolution that DVD brought.)

That said, in the LOONG term, I think Downloads will be a major factor. (I just think that it will take a very long time, and in the meantime, neither HDM format will be a huge success unfortunately)


You can disagree all you want with an opinion, but it doesn't change the fact that this is the future and is closer than many think. Two years at most. I don't know if you have read the links provided or even know what is actually going on right now. Wimax and OTA towers are going to be used by 2009 for HD/Broadband downloads.

a) interesting article. does nothing to back up your point though. the decline in cd sales/increase of download sales doesn't imply that people aren't listening to music at home any less (or listening to it on the go any more). in order for it to back up your point, you'd have to find evidence that those "lost" cd sales weren't already being used as "music on the go" (i.e. ripped to itunes/whatever and used on a portable player). personally, i believe that you are making a HUGE leap of logic to say that because people listen to more "on the go" music that they listen to less sitting at home.

What about the very noticeable drop in sales of standalone CD players?

no, the rapid growth of itunes plays a minimal factor (if any) in my outlook. the rapid growth of broadband internet access (with more predicted) is what steers me towards it. amoungst many other things. convenience. huge libraries available on demand. and so on.

The movie industry may end up regretting the push for faster download speeds. If people can download a 4.5 Gb movie in about an hour or less, many will choose to go to a P2P site and get it for free. Movie lovers, like current music lovers will be split between those that illegally download and those willing to pay. If that scenario plays out, the Movie industry stands to lose billions.

faulty logic on your part... that cd from the 80's may not have aged well, but you still listened to it MANY more times than you might watch a movie (well... unless it REALLY sucked ;) )...

I don't listen to any my cds from the 80s.My point is that today, as we speak, I'd much rather watch Rambo on DVD than listen to a Wham CD


as far as needing a hard drive, etc. why? memory gets cheaper every day... give me enough of it in a box to buffer a stream, and i'm fine. again, people are thinking about "owning" the movie rather than "watching" the movie.

Even with an external 400gb hard drive attached to my PVR, I still end up deleting movies that I'd prefer to keep due to space constraints. I'd prefer to ''own'' it for future viewing or in case friends or family visit and want to watch it.

as far as being connected to the internet... well... if you have cable, you are in effect connected to the internet... same deal for satellite... it's not that hard to envision a stb used as an i/p device...


It's also not hard to envision the masses taking advantage of this to download all the movies they want for free.;)


as said before, there is going to be a place for "hard" media, for those who want to hold it in their hands... but for the majority of users, vod really is the next logical step...

We'll See!:cool:

I used to "collect" vinyl albums. Blasphemy and reality don't coexist very well.

Unfortunately maximizing profits override collectors wishes.

I have restarted collecting vinyl albums. It nostalgia, and great sound wrapped into one.

Do you think we'll feel the same nostalgia for our first HDDVD disks in 30 years that I feel about vinyl? Not likely -- I just want to watch the movie. However, I also want to "keep" the thing - not watch it die when my hard drive fails, or my 16 TB memory stick fries. I likely will still have these HDDVDs in 30 years -- if I can still play them back!

I'll go out on a limb here, and say that nobody here has as much bandwidth as a handful of HD-DVDs going down the freeway at 65 mph. If you can download 120 GB off the internet in 30 minutes, I'd take my hat off to you if I wore one. I seriously doubt we'll see that kind of network speed in this country anytime soon.

why would i need to download 120GB in 30 minutes in order to watch a movie?

at most, i need to stream, what, 30GB over the course of say, 150 minutes (not even that, really, probably less)... plus there's no reason to think that codecs won't continue to get better to further reduce the size of a movie....

you need to recognize that a paradigm shift WILL happen... you also need to recognize that if you can stream whatever you want whenever you want, only the true holdouts will insist upon having the physical media...

people are getting caught up in "well, that's not what I would want to do" thought process... recognize that what YOU want to do isn't necessarily what the majority of people would like to do... it wasn't that long ago in the overall scheme of things where people would have scoffed at the idea of paying for tv...

given the opportunity to watch virtually ANY movie ever made, at any time i want, for a reasonable monthly fee sounds like a workable plan to me...

why would i need to download 120GB in 30 minutes in order to watch a movie?

at most, i need to stream, what, 30GB over the course of say, 150 minutes (not even that, really, probably less)... plus there's no reason to think that codecs won't continue to get better to further reduce the size of a movie....

you need to recognize that a paradigm shift WILL happen... you also need to recognize that if you can stream whatever you want whenever you want, only the true holdouts will insist upon having the physical media...

people are getting caught up in "well, that's not what I would want to do" thought process... recognize that what YOU want to do isn't necessarily what the majority of people would like to do... it wasn't that long ago in the overall scheme of things where people would have scoffed at the idea of paying for tv...

given the opportunity to watch virtually ANY movie ever made, at any time i want, for a reasonable monthly fee sounds like a workable plan to me...

Only if you get to keep the movie as long as you want. If you're limited to a single viewing, I don't think most people will go for it.

why would i need to download 120GB in 30 minutes in order to watch a movie?

at most, i need to stream, what, 30GB over the course of say, 150 minutes (not even that, really, probably less)... plus there's no reason to think that codecs won't continue to get better to further reduce the size of a movie....

you need to recognize that a paradigm shift WILL happen... you also need to recognize that if you can stream whatever you want whenever you want, only the true holdouts will insist upon having the physical media...

people are getting caught up in "well, that's not what I would want to do" thought process... recognize that what YOU want to do isn't necessarily what the majority of people would like to do... it wasn't that long ago in the overall scheme of things where people would have scoffed at the idea of paying for tv...

given the opportunity to watch virtually ANY movie ever made, at any time i want, for a reasonable monthly fee sounds like a workable plan to me...


You are doing very well at making the point I am trying to get across, better than I could.

This isn't if it is going to happen or if people who are collectors like it or not. Downloading and high capacity storage hardware will make it possible. THis is inevitable and coming sooner than the BS ten year quotes.

Only if you get to keep the movie as long as you want. If you're limited to a single viewing, I don't think most people will go for it.

No, only if YOU the collector who keeps reitterating about hard disk media wants to see it multiple times for one fee or a monthly fee. MOst people are sick of seeing King Kong or even other great movies 20 times a month on HBO or some other channel.

You are doing very well at making the point I am trying to get across, better than I could.

This isn't if it is going to happen or if people who are collectors like it or not. Downloading and high capacity storage hardware will make it possible. THis is inevitable and coming sooner than the BS ten year quotes.

:D

i'm trying, but something tells me i'm not making any progress... some people seem not to be able to get past the "owning the movie" thought... they can't seem to wrap their minds around the fact that they don't NEED to own the movie if they can get it whenever they want...

i also think that the current "on demand" model is what they are imagining (i.e. you "buy" a movie for a "viewing/short period of time")... while that may (or may not) be a potential model, the model that i (and i believe you) envision doesn't necessarily work in this manner... also, the fact remains that a goodly number of people fall into the "rent/watch/return" model...

oh well... it's fodder for discussion at least... and it beats the usual gah-bage about blu vs. red... ;)

:D

i'm trying, but something tells me i'm not making any progress... some people seem not to be able to get past the "owning the movie" thought... they can't seem to wrap their minds around the fact that they don't NEED to own the movie if they can get it whenever they want...

i also think that the current "on demand" model is what they are imagining (i.e. you "buy" a movie for a "viewing/short period of time")... while that may (or may not) be a potential model, the model that i (and i believe you) envision doesn't necessarily work in this manner... also, the fact remains that a goodly number of people fall into the "rent/watch/return" model...

oh well... it's fodder for discussion at least... and it beats the usual gah-bage about blu vs. red... ;)

Yes, truly and it virtually eliminates the need for Red/Blue and that is coming from a blue fan. I welcome it.

Some people really enjoy "owning" the movie. For people that have friends that like movies, buying them the actual disk is a joy. Some people even like more than just the movie. Take the Blade Runner Collector's Edition for example. I don't care about all those lobby cards and paraphernalia, but I have a friend that can't wait to get his hands on it. I think digital downloading will never replace the actual disks, but, rather, compliment it. I also think that the ipod/CD analogy does not not follow for movies. You don't have to look at music, you have to look at the movies. I just don't want Micro$oft dumbing down my DTS-HD MA tracks to save download space.

Given the choice I would never, ever chose a download over a disk. Backups and drives fail. You can't travel with or loan out the downloaded movie. If downloads came out today, I bet they would be 720p with no lossless sound. At Christmas it is much more enjoyable to give or receive the actual movie rather than some "card" with a key code on it. If my memory serves, Microsoft wanted all HD-DVDs connected to the internet so they could do a "security check" every time you put a disk in. Downloads? No, thanks.

I will always prefer to have a physical copy of a movie. If I could have a downloadable service with 1080p PQ, great AQ at a flat monthly rate that would be a great adjunct to my collection.

For rentals I love this idea. I would still rather have my library of music and movies though. The younger generation coming though seems fine just having downloaded content. They don't seem to have the same relationship with physical media like I do (I will soon be 37 and I had over 400 lps before I switched to CDs in the mid 1980s). I now have over 400 DVDs and about 1000 CDs between my wife and I.

Man, I am kind of nervous about picking up a dual format player one of these days. Many, many movies on both formats that I would love to have in HDM!:)

You can disagree all you want with an opinion, but it doesn't change the fact that this is the future and is closer than many think. Two years at most. I don't know if you have read the links provided or even know what is actually going on right now. Wimax and OTA towers are going to be used by 2009 for HD/Broadband downloads.

2 years is your opinion ;)

PS: I get my internet from fixed wireless, so I understand the potential. I still think Fiber will need to be heavily used for this to materialize

I will always prefer to have a physical copy of a movie. If I could have a downloadable service with 1080p PQ, great AQ at a flat monthly rate that would be a great adjunct to my collection.

For rentals I love this idea. I would still rather have my library of music and movies though. The younger generation coming though seems fine just having downloaded content. They don't seem to have the same relationship with physical media like I do (I will soon be 37 and I had over 400 lps before I switched to CDs in the mid 1980s). I now have over 400 DVDs and about 1000 CDs between my wife and I.

Man, I am kind of nervous about picking up a dual format player one of these days. Many, many movies on both formats that I would love to have in HDM!:)

well... i WISH i was younger than 37... :( at least i'm only a few years older than that...

fwiw, i've got almost 3000 cds (and had more, but thinned the herd a bit last year :) )... i've also got boatloads of downloaded music...

however, i have less than 50 dvds, and i would anticipate i won't end up with many more "hdms" (combined colors)... there really aren't that many movies i want to watch more than once... that's not to say i don't watch a lot of movies... i do... i just don't feel the need to own them...

i recognize the fact that some will feel more comfortable with the "physical media" in their hands... and that until it's proven to them otherwise, they will look with skepticism upon delivery methods that take that media out of their hands... that's ok... the problem is when they attempt to project that
"comfort level" (or lack thereof) on the general population, and make the assumption that something won't work becuase "it won't work for them"...

Yes, truly and it virtually eliminates the need for Red/Blue and that is coming from a blue fan. I welcome it.

oh, there will be something new...

fanboy 1: "hardwired is the only way to go"...
fanboy 2: "but you can get so much more with wireless"...
blah blah blah...

:D

Instead of keeping my movie on $0.99 DVDs I will have to buy $200 hard drive for every 4 movies? I don’t think so.

What? $200 gets you a 750GB drive, which holds 30 25GB movies.

But people here don't represent the general public. CD sales have dropped dramatically over the past 10 years.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070321-accounting-for-the-big-plunge-in-music-sales-the-digital-singles-effect.html




Lets face it though, if it wasn't for the rapid decline in CD sales and the rise of music downloading via iTunes, we'd all be less inclined to believe that optical media for movies was coming to an end.



I feel differently in that music gets dated much more easily than motion pictures, and I'm referring to Top 40 music. I have CDs from the 80s that I'll never listen to again. If you're talking about classic rock, that's a different story.

OTOH, I'm willing to see a movie from the 80s or 70s again if it's a classic. A movie like Rocky or Jaws never gets old and ages well with time. I wouldn't watch them 100 times but I'd view them once every few years.


There are so many factors involved in the decline of the traditional sit down and listen CD market... portability and piracy are important but there are many more. I have not bought a single CD since I started buying HDM.. There is a lot of other entertainment available to compete with CD. The Internet is a distraction that takes huge amounts of peoples liesure time compared with 10 years ago, The DVD came to market at that time. The baby boomers who drove the CD biz are not interested in rap, hip hop, nor much of comtemporary music.

They have essentially exited the market. In any case "video killed the radio star". In stead our audio systems being the center of our home entertainment system our HDTVs are the center.

BTW I have bought a number of music and concert video since I stopped buying CDs and several of those music videos are HDM

What? $200 gets you a 750GB drive, which holds 30 25GB movies.

You don't require a hard drive to watch streaming movies on demand. Besides that, the 2 years quoted here I think is unrealistic for this technology. What is currently lacking is the infrastructure to deliver such bandwidths to the wireless towers themselves. Yes, I know that a lot of dark fiber was bought very cheaply by the telcos after the telecom bust. But it costs a lot of money to light that fiber, and I'm not even sure if enough of that exists today to satisfy that kind of bandwidth requirement. I suspect 7 to 12 years before we get widespread HD streaming VOD services that offer bandwidth equal to or surpassing current HDM.

Gosh, perhaps I shouldn't have sold those GBLX, WCOM, or ENE shares after all! Oh... wait a sec....

The only thing I see in internet VOD future is more users getting booted by Comcast by exceeding their "unlimited internet" limit.:eek:

Looking at big blockbuster releases, how fast do you think your movie download will take when you are battling 100,000 or more users for bandwidth?
What if VOD becomes mainstream then that number jumps to millions of users?

If VOD ever becomes mainstream, I see the end of unlimited internet packages, and a Tier Internet levels.

that's reasonable skyhawk... i wouldn't be surprised to see it in limited usage within 3 years and have solid penetration in 7 to 10....

i won't say it will happen tomorrow (although i do think it will happen in a reasonably short period of time)... but those who say "never" aren't being realistic...

The only thing I see in internet VOD future is more users getting booted by Comcast by exceeding their "unlimited internet" limit.:eek:

Looking at big blockbuster releases, how fast do you think your movie download will take when you are battling 100,000 or more users for bandwidth?
What if VOD becomes mainstream then that number jumps to millions of users?

If VOD ever becomes mainstream, I see the end of unlimited internet packages, and a Tier Internet levels.

again, imo, you are making the mistake that many are making by thinking of it in the context of the state of "today's technology"...

There are so many factors involved in the decline of the traditional sit down and listen CD market... portability and piracy are important but there are many more. I have not bought a single CD since I started buying HDM.. There is a lot of other entertainment available to compete with CD. The Internet is a distraction that takes huge amounts of peoples liesure time compared with 10 years ago, The DVD came to market at that time. The baby boomers who drove the CD biz are not interested in rap, hip hop, nor much of comtemporary music.

They have essentially exited the market. In any case "video killed the radio star". In stead our audio systems being the center of our home entertainment system our HDTVs are the center.

BTW I have bought a number of music and concert video since I stopped buying CDs and several of those music videos are HDM

I agree. The Home Theater has replaced the Home Stereo System as the center of entertainment in the house.

No one wants to sit on their couch, pick a movie, watch it in the same time it takes to go to the video store and have the option to burn it to a disc, buy permanently or erase? If so, then many are wasting their time posting on these boards, because everything we do here is advancing towards that day. Don't think its that far away.

that's reasonable skyhawk... i wouldn't be surprised to see it in limited usage within 3 years and have solid penetration in 7 to 10....

i won't say it will happen tomorrow (although i do think it will happen in a reasonably short period of time)... but those who say "never" aren't being realistic...

The reason I think it's going to take awhile is that the unprecedented influx of capital investment in the telecom sector during the tech boom period largely brought us our current highly compressed standard VOD service we enjoy today. Infrastructure was rolled out so heavily during 1997 to 2001 as a result, much of it still lies unused and may well be obsoleted before it ever gets lit up. The economics were different then since surviving telcos didn't have to shoot for original ROI - they bought this infrastructure from DOA companies at fire sale prices. I don't think we'll ever see such a sudden, gigantic, and economically stupid capital injection within this sector again in our life time. Instead I think it's going to be a slower, gradual upgrade (hence my 7 to 12 year prediction). I also don't think consumers are willing to spend much more than what they currently spend for cable+internet+music+moves+rentals+phone+gaming today for such services. This has to be a win for consumers as well as the companies involved.

That brings me to convergence. Did I mention that within those 7-12 years, all the services I mentioned above will converge - both from a service/technology perspective AND the mobile/wireless/fixed devices that will receive them? Lets face it - IT IS going to happen, and I suspect 25 years from now my "grandkids to be" may laugh at our quaint plastic disks and the entire idea of fixed media. They'll wonder what it was like back in the old days - the time when studios didn't upload new content to service providers' libraries on release day for immediate streaming availability, but instead had factories press disks that were shipped all over the darn place by trucks, and people had to drive somewhere to rent/buy them, and actually stand in line for it! They won't think this was only old-fashioned, but also incredibly environmentally irresponsible and inefficient. And yes, my future scenario will bring cost efficiencies that could (eventually) be passed on to the consumer.

So fans, your HD DVD and Blu-ray media days are numbered. I do suspect the industry will let this cycle run its course over the next 10 to 15 years while a slow roll out of more modern services are underway. There's still money to be made ;)

But once I get the future OD services, I'll put my HDM collection in a time capsule for my grandkids to laugh at. Maybe they'll get something for them on eBay as collectors items.

well... i WISH i was younger than 37... :( at least i'm only a few years older than that...

fwiw, i've got almost 3000 cds (and had more, but thinned the herd a bit last year :) )... i've also got boatloads of downloaded music...

however, i have less than 50 dvds, and i would anticipate i won't end up with many more "hdms" (combined colors)... there really aren't that many movies i want to watch more than once... that's not to say i don't watch a lot of movies... i do... i just don't feel the need to own them...

i recognize the fact that some will feel more comfortable with the "physical media" in their hands... and that until it's proven to them otherwise, they will look with skepticism upon delivery methods that take that media out of their hands... that's ok... the problem is when they attempt to project that
"comfort level" (or lack thereof) on the general population, and make the assumption that something won't work becuase "it won't work for them"...


Wow! That is a LOT of CDs!:) I get a lot of raised eyebrows when people see how much content we have at our place.
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f90/Zoodles95/Home%20Pics/DSC04552.jpg
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f90/Zoodles95/Home%20Pics/DSC04551.jpg
There is another of the thinner CD stands to the right of this pic. 1000 CDs is an estimate; but sounds about right. Where the heck do you keep all those CDs? Our movie and music collection are in alphabetical order and I have some CDs by genre (movie soundtracks, comedy etc).

I do much less "critical" listening than I used to. In the late 1980s and early 1990s I had friends with "high end" audio systems ($5000 plus in those times) and we would get together for the day, have a few brews, and just listen to great music on a great sound system.

When I make the point of doing it I can still get blown away by some of my CDs and get "lost" in the music. It is kind of sad that I don't do this anymore.

why would i need to download 120GB in 30 minutes in order to watch a movie?

at most, i need to stream, what, 30GB over the course of say, 150 minutes (not even that, really, probably less)... plus there's no reason to think that codecs won't continue to get better to further reduce the size of a movie....

you need to recognize that a paradigm shift WILL happen... you also need to recognize that if you can stream whatever you want whenever you want, only the true holdouts will insist upon having the physical media...

people are getting caught up in "well, that's not what I would want to do" thought process... recognize that what YOU want to do isn't necessarily what the majority of people would like to do... it wasn't that long ago in the overall scheme of things where people would have scoffed at the idea of paying for tv...

given the opportunity to watch virtually ANY movie ever made, at any time i want, for a reasonable monthly fee sounds like a workable plan to me...

You know, you had me going in this thread until that last sentance. The reality is that it is people who own the content and control this kind of thing, not the technology. Given that these same people have egos, agendas, desires, relationships, agreements, and understandings with other like-minded people, I fail to see how this would be possible. It certainly has not worked yet with downloadable music, which to me would be the first step in proving this model, so why would we have universal video available for a reasonable fee. Oh yeah, in exactly which codec would all these movies be available? I'm sorry, but I have to point these issues out.

Doug

Wow! That is a LOT of CDs!:) I get a lot of raised eyebrows when people see how much content we have at our place.
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f90/Zoodles95/Home%20Pics/DSC04552.jpg
http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f90/Zoodles95/Home%20Pics/DSC04551.jpg
There is another of the thinner CD stands to the right of this pic. 1000 CDs is an estimate; but sounds about right. Where the heck do you keep all those CDs? Our movie and music collection are in alphabetical order and I have some CDs by genre (movie soundtracks, comedy etc).

I do much less "critical" listening than I used to. In the late 1980s and early 1990s I had friends with "high end" audio systems ($5000 plus in those times) and we would get together for the day, have a few brews, and just listen to great music on a great sound system.

When I make the point of doing it I can still get blown away by some of my CDs and get "lost" in the music. It is kind of sad that I don't do this anymore.

The MPAA and RIAA needs more customers like you!

You know, you had me going in this thread until that last sentance. The reality is that it is people who own the content and control this kind of thing, not the technology. Given that these same people have egos, agendas, desires, relationships, agreements, and understandings with other like-minded people, I fail to see how this would be possible. It certainly has not worked yet with downloadable music, which to me would be the first step in proving this model, so why would we have universal video available for a reasonable fee. Oh yeah, in exactly which codec would all these movies be available? I'm sorry, but I have to point these issues out.

Doug

The studios cut everyone out with the exception of the delivery system people like SAT,CBL or IP. All they need are disc farms.

No more manufacturing, shipping, wholesalers, retailers - ALL gone. Just the studio, the delivery people and the consumer.

I believe MPEG4 is gaining in the HD "OTA" matketplace as we speak.