We've got early numbers, I've got Eye of Judgment calling for my undivided attention so you get an early prediction thread.

The week we were all waiting for has come and gone, and it looks like Optimus sparked HD DVD to their best showing yet, losing by the narrowest of narrow margins. The big question for this week is how long are Optimus' legs?

This week sees a slew of new releases. Warner makes a big, format neutral splash with a bevy of Kubrick titles. Both sides have seasonal horror movies exclusive to them. HD DVD brings Seed of Chucky while BD has both Hostel titles, The Hills Have Eyes 2 and Scary Movie. Hd DVD rounds out its list with 2 concerts.

The biggest release of the week is likely to be Meet the Robinsons from Disney. This title will be an interesting test of how high definition animated family movies do.

IMPORTANT REMINDER:Please remember to format your guesses as follows:
BD:HD
If you do not, I may not correctly enter your guess.

Nielsen contest entries for 11/02/2007

NAME BD:HD
CRFTony 70:30
mcgarnagle 70:30
wreckshop 70:30
Jim Morrison 70:30
ChristopherB 69:31
dc_pilgrim 68:32
jkwest 68:32
-diVe- 68:32
chirpie 67:33
Sy- 66:34
rcutlass70 66:34
phansson 66:34
GJN 66:34
Robert Spalding 65:35
ninjanki 65:35
allargon 65:35
Vov76 65:35
todrigo 65:35
Chris NYC 65:35
MarekM 64:36
spacejamz 64:36
donricouga 64:36
Reylas 64:36
Ethos99 64:36
edgebsl 63:37
anttimony 63:37
Dot50Cal 62:38
tiger roach 62:38
ptysell 62:38
Jonto81 62:38
ottscay 62:38
frishizzle 62:38
Mel2 61:39
spam.curitiba 61:39
Kemet 61:39
fitprod 61:39
Evan702 61:39
ataxic_dentist 60:40
DanTou 60:40
tonngo0 60:40
Winn 60:40
Jeff Flowerday 60:40
george king 60:40
rdjam 60:40
Lyion 60:40
ICBM99 60:40
soremekun 60:40
frasersean 60:40
merv43 60:40
digicam95 60:40
user friendly 60:40
nakedeye 60:40
Kristua 60:40
JetJock3315 59:41
JackBee 59:41
PrinceLH 59:41
eightninesuited 59:41
Icemage 59:41
Will d s 59:41
BrynRhys 59:41
jhinesjr 59:41
extra_hc 59:41
BuGsArEtAsTy 59:41
stefanpaulmayer 59:41
huntaar 59:41
bori 58:42
Chris_TC 58:42
Jagt Mirage 58:42
geko29 58:42
Baccusboy 58:42
boomster 58:42
Ronin_R6 58:42
online 58:42
JoeFigueiredo 58:42
dumbswede 58:42
MichaelHDDVD 58:42
Everdog 58:42
darkedgex 58:42
JeffY 58:42
SCLlmaa 58:42
mswoods1 57:43
Lbarber 57:43
UxiSXRD 57:43
GeorgeLV 57:43
FortySix&2 57:43
Sketcha 57:43
MattHD 57:43
dad1153 57:43
badandy642 57:43
Wet1 57:43
ixalon 57:43
ToddUGA 56:44
LynxFX 56:44
manikin 56:44
habscolts 56:44
iontyre 56:44
lomax 56:44
MASrules 56:44
Enigma 56:44
chipvideo 55:45
bunkaroo 55:45
Brian Hampton 55:45
Kable 55:45
theone2 55:45
Reginald Trent 55:45
mlankton 55:45
Greg Kettell 55:45
wipron 55:45
oregoncalfroper 55:45
trondmm 55:45
Bill0711 55:45
TPigeon2006 55:45
Neo1965 55:45
theflux 55:45
gand41f 55:45
rob71 55:45
Clark Burk 54:46
dobyblue 54:46
Aresca 54:46
anotheraviator 54:46
shamus 54:46
JAC6 54:46
Azumi 54:46
Rooper 54:46
crimsona 53:47
Raxel 53:47
darinp2 53:47
sodrock 53:47
Blumoon 53:47
bato 53:47
PopcornReady 52:48
hammie34 52:48
CochiseGuy 52:48
alfbinet 52:48
Elwar 52:48
SamwisetheBrave 52:48
hd nOOb 51:49
caesartheboxer 51:49
Blu-Devil 51:49
khwiggins2 51:49
neillkirn 51:49
dmcfan 50:50
bigdaveman 50:50
PLC1843 50:50
pythagoras 49:51
rover2002 49:51
krylonone 49:51
kkozma 49:51
Kosty 49:51
coolhand 49:51
Noggin1980 49:51
Grubert 49:51
assayer 49:51
Jarod M 49:51
Xylon 48:52
m1cst4rr 48:52
D-X 48:52
Numanoid101 48:52
SGRSBSKIER 48:52
luclin999 48:52
yampan 48:52
David Scott 48:52
aaronwt 48:52
Andy_Dandy 47:53
GmanAVS 47:53
MrXpress 47:53
BrerBear 46:54
SquirrelPhister 46:54
xradman 45:55
user4avsforum 45:55
briankmonkey 44:56
Hockeytown Fan 43:57
Shmack 40:60
winmacme 20:80



HD DVD
Carlito's Way (Universal)
Carlito's Way: Rise to Power (Universal)
Inside Man (Universal)
Seed of Chucky (Universal Entetainment)
Motörhead : Stage Fright (SPV Records)
Keali'i Reichel - Live in Concert (Alternative Distribution Alliance)
2001: A Space Odyssey (Warner)
A Clockwork Orange (Warner)
Eyes Wide Shut (Warner)
Full Metal Jacket: Deluxe Edition (Warner)
The Shining (1980) (Warner)
The Sopranos: Season Six, Part Two (Warner)

Blu Ray
Scary Movie (Dimension)
The Company (2007) (Sony)
King of New York (Lionsgate)
Meet the Robinsons (Walt Disney)
Hostel (Sony)
Hostel: Part II (Sony)
The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox)
Home of the Brave (Fox)
Mr. Brooks (MGM)
2001: A Space Odyssey (Warner)
A Clockwork Orange (Warner)
Eyes Wide Shut (Warner)
Full Metal Jacket: Deluxe Edition (Warner)
The Shining (1980) (Warner)
The Sopranos: Season Six, Part Two (Warner)

Nielsen contest results for 10/26/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 51:49

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Kork 51:49 2 0.00
kevivoe 51:49 1 0.00
-diVe- 53:47 2 1.00
rob71 52:48 2 1.00
anttimony 53:47 1 2.00
sodrock 53:47 1 2.00
JeffY 49:51 10 2.50
Rooper 46:54 4 2.50
ixalon 52:48 2 2.50
huntaar 56:44 7 2.57
assayer 57:43 8 2.63
Wet1 47:53 11 2.64
gand41f 43:57 11 2.64
Grubert 41:59 10 2.70
badandy642 49:51 7 2.71
user friendly 52:48 5 2.80
MASrules 55:45 12 2.83
stefanpaulmayer 51:49 10 2.90
Everdog 41:59 12 3.00
todrigo 52:48 10 3.00
BuGsArEtAsTy 48:52 9 3.00
ack_bk 51:49 7 3.00
GJN 54:46 3 3.00
Evan702 56:44 2 3.00
darkedgex 54:46 1 3.00
MichaelHDDVD 48:52 12 3.08
neillkirn 51:49 7 3.14
theflux 51:49 12 3.17
dad1153 58:42 11 3.18
Neo1965 40:60 12 3.25
alfbinet 51:49 4 3.25
extra_hc 51:49 11 3.27
TPigeon2006 47:53 12 3.33
Vov76 49:51 8 3.38
digicam95 55:45 7 3.43
Azumi 54:46 12 3.50
aaronwt 50:50 12 3.50
cdzie1 60:40 8 3.50
dumbswede 51:49 6 3.50
MattHD 54:46 2 3.50
Sketcha 59:41 12 3.58
darinp2 34:66 12 3.58
FortySix&2 53:47 5 3.60
lomax 51:49 12 3.67
David Scott 45:55 12 3.67
Reylas 41:59 12 3.67
khwiggins2 50:50 3 3.67
Bill0711 46:54 3 3.67
ottscay 54:46 11 3.73
BrynRhys 39:61 8 3.75
iontyre 48:52 9 3.78
Blu-Devil 60:40 11 3.82
fitprod 52:48 11 3.82
JAC6 46:54 6 3.83
CochiseGuy 38:62 7 3.86
donricouga 59:41 11 3.91
shamus 49:51 11 3.91
spacejamz 54:46 11 4.00
Will d s 49:51 8 4.00
chirpie 45:55 8 4.00
trondmm 38:62 8 4.00
habscolts 49:51 4 4.00
yampan 47:53 3 4.00
HiDef4Life 55:45 1 4.00
JoeFigueiredo 55:45 1 4.00
merv43 55:45 1 4.00
milit 55:45 1 4.00
Staying Salty 47:53 1 4.00
Icemage 32:68 12 4.08
Raxel 48:52 11 4.09
Noggin1980 34:66 8 4.13
online 36:64 12 4.17
manikin 51:49 12 4.25
hammie34 33:67 12 4.25
GeorgeLV 51:49 11 4.27
tgraphics 47:53 7 4.29
SquirrelPhister 51:49 3 4.33
allargon 47:53 11 4.36
LynxFX 45:55 12 4.50
frasersean 51:49 11 4.55
Ronin_R6 44:56 9 4.56
UxiSXRD 57:43 12 4.58
Kemet 47:53 5 4.60
boomster 47:53 8 4.63
soremekun 55:45 11 4.64
plazman 45:55 9 4.67
Lbarber 57:43 3 4.67
coolhand 47:53 7 4.71
anotheraviator 51:49 8 4.75
oregoncalfroper 54:46 4 4.75
ICBM99 40:60 10 4.80
Aresca 45:55 5 4.80
GmanAVS 38:62 11 4.82
wipron 46:54 6 4.83
phansson 52:48 7 4.86
Baccusboy 47:53 9 4.89
geko29 24:76 12 4.92
Jim Morrison 46:54 10 5.00
caesartheboxer 45:55 7 5.00
mswoods1 37:63 7 5.00
luclin999 47:53 4 5.00
ninjanki 60:40 2 5.00
Greg Kettell 42:58 2 5.00
Lyion 56:44 1 5.00
mlankton 37:63 7 5.14
MarekM 54:46 12 5.33
ChristopherB 48:52 3 5.33
wreckshop 60:40 11 5.36
Jonto81 50:50 8 5.38
Merrick97 47:53 5 5.40
Reginald Trent 55:45 6 5.50
user4avsforum 46:54 8 5.63
crimsona 30:70 11 5.64
Hockeytown Fan 43:57 3 5.67
rdjam 70:30 12 5.75
eightninesuited 21:79 12 5.75
mcgarnagle 65:35 4 5.75
opfreak 60:40 9 5.78
george king 50:50 5 5.80
Leviathin25 35:65 6 5.83
briankmonkey 47:53 12 6.00
JackBee 56:44 6 6.00
edgebsl 58:42 4 6.00
PrinceLH 62:38 3 6.00
Jagt Mirage 52:48 2 6.00
thebland 68:32 5 6.20
Jeff Flowerday 50:50 5 6.20
PopcornReady 48:52 5 6.20
bigdaveman 40:60 4 6.25
raaj 38:62 6 6.33
studiotan 39:61 3 6.33
ToddUGA 61:39 5 6.40
CRFTony 59:41 7 6.43
ptysell 53:47 7 6.43
JetJock3315 47:53 6 6.50
pdusk88 38:62 2 6.50
Winn 60:40 12 6.67
dobyblue 41:59 6 6.67
ludeboy12 47:53 3 6.67
jkwest 68:32 10 7.00
SGRSBSKIER 32:68 8 7.13
Numanoid101 30:70 3 7.33
theone2 60:40 5 7.40
xradman 30:70 6 7.50
hd nOOb 45:55 5 7.60
Kosty 29:71 12 7.67
Chris_TC 35:65 4 7.75
h0mi 35:65 4 7.75
Robert Spalding 30:70 4 7.75
kkozma 39:61 6 8.00
Kable 30:70 5 8.00
bori 43:57 1 8.00
BrerBear 43:57 1 8.00
SAFOOL 43:57 1 8.00
krylonone 40:60 8 8.13
Brian Hampton 60:40 4 8.25
ts.enigma 67:33 4 8.50
tonngo0 67:33 4 9.00
bunkaroo 60:40 1 9.00
dmcfan 42:58 1 9.00
Rking4441 42:58 3 9.33
diddlyd 61:39 1 10.00
DanTou 42:58 3 10.67
rover2002 40:60 8 11.00
tiger roach 62:38 1 11.00
chipvideo 40:60 1 11.00
aristotles 76:24 6 11.33
D-X 45:55 3 11.67
ataxic_dentist 38:62 1 13.00
m1cst4rr 38:62 1 13.00
Clark Burk 65:35 1 14.00
Dot50Cal 65:35 1 14.00
mfinochio 65:35 1 14.00
dc_pilgrim 37:63 1 14.00
akbungle 69:31 1 18.00
Shmack 10:90 11 18.64
AKM74 70:30 1 19.00
rcutlass70 70:30 1 19.00
Sy- 72:28 1 21.00
Andy_Dandy 27:73 3 23.33
pythagoras 12:88 2 24.50
winmacme 20:80 1 31.00
xboxboi 19:81 2 34.00
brighteyes 2:98 1 49.00



Perfect Picks:


3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
trondmm (6,7,8)
BrynRhys (3,4,11)

2
GmanAVS (4,5)
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
MASrules (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)
Grubert (6,10)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7,11)
ToddUGA (8,11)
dumbswede (8,12)
extra_hc (10,12)
Kork (11,12)

1
anotheraviator (12)
frasersean (12)
SquirrelPhister (12)
GeorgeLV (12)
manikin (12)
lomax (12)
alfbinet (12)
theflux (12)
neillkirn (12)
ack_bk (12)
stefanpaulmayer (12)
kevivoe (12)
ChristopherB (11)
edgebsl (11)
spacejamz (11)
FortySix&2 (11)
huntaar (11)
Rooper (11)
user friendly (10)
Vov76 (10)
Kemet (10)
Reylas (10)
Blu-Devil (10)
patrick99 (10)
pdusk88 (10)
philnerd (10)
PrinceLH (10)
SGRSBSKIER (9)
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
TPigeon2006 (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
iontyre (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
aaronwt (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
gand41f (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)


Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 74 3 75 (13) [60] 62 50 (12) [12] 65.14 65 64
2 90 4 88 (22) [73] 66 58 (8) [13] 68.3 68 68
3 94 9 75 (4) [11] 71 55 (16) [74] 68.46 69 70
4 98 6 81 (13) [69] 68 55*(13) [23] 69.27 71 72
5 107 3 70 (14) [89] 56 40 (16) [15] 59.64 60 60
6 122 11 70 (10) [87] 60 45 (15) [24] 62.29 62 62
7 132 14 72 (11) [67] 61 45 (16) [51] 61.26 62 62
8 139 22 74 (11) [38] 63 50 (13) [89] 61.99 62 63
9 137 1 69 (15) [130] 54 40 (14) [6] 60.47 61 60
10 146 11 83 (15) [35] 68 45 (23) [100] 64 64 64
11 150 10 78 (7) [15] 71 35 (36) [125] 66.41 67 70
12 184 15 76 (25) [68] 51 2 (49) [101] 47.91 49 51
13 174 70 20 56.34 57 55
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

*outrageous guess ignored

(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion. The mods made it clear that going OT in the new thread would not be tolerated. The game is currently getting over 90 entries per week. Those 90 posts would clutter up the main Nielsen thread.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) publishes the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

5- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVD, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

6- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert has confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

October6, 2006 list of contributors. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=75416&d=1171406427)

7- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).

1st guess

65:35 in favor of Blu.

Still shaking my head over last week... :confused:

66:34

Blu Ray of course

60:40

70 : 30

54:46

I think the BD camp spent all their money on BOGOs. No more to spend this week.

This is the calm before the storm. Ill do 59:41 in BD's favor and predict it will be nothing but gum drops and candy canes after this one.

61:39 Blu moves up by 10

54:46

I think the BD camp spent all their money on BOGOs. No more to spend this week.

Just so you know I'm pretty sure that at least the Sony sale was extended to this week...

Rattatouille v/s Transformer residuals

56:44

I'm still in shock over my correct pick.

63:37

Rattatouille v/s Transformer residuals

56:44

I'm still in shock over my correct pick.

Rat is still a ways away. Read the first post to see whats coming.

48 Blu/ 52 HD

49:51

62:38

60:40

Meet the Robinsons should aid in a win this week.

Rat is still a ways away. Read the first post to see whats coming.

:o Whoops my bad meant "Meet the Robinsons" (Really meant a Disney animated feature)
Good reviews, Pent up demand (no releases in a while), G- rated, Not a re-release day and date with DVD.

59:41

51:49

Best Buy is selling out of HD DVD xbox add on drives + Heroes + 2 freebies ARE to be included with it. :)

60:40

62:38

49:51

58:42

64:36

56:44

Lets not forget all the AO sales at BB with the 3 movies rung in at the POS.

I know of several members here that are doing this 2, 3, and 4 times.

I say 53:47

52:48

65:35

This week is Prime Numbers Week.

59 : 41

68:32

70:30 Bd

Bd 57:43 Hddvd

57:43

Transformers will still be the number one selling movie, but not by much

47:53

I'll try out a prediction this week. I think the 360+Heroes sale at BB (plus the CC BOGO-like glitch where people are getting 2 free box sets with the deal as well) will make a bigger difference than people realize, what with BB's status as far and away the leading HDM retailer and all.

55:45

61:39 Blu on top as always..

56:44

57:43

58:42

66:34

i go 56 : 44 for Blu

i am not thinking it through again but it looks good.

69:31

60:40

I just don't know any more. Like I ever did :)

64:36

62:38

Transformers drops a LOT, but still decent numbers in absolute terms to keep BD from it's usual 2:1 ratio.

45/55

I think Transforms will have far bigger and longer legs than the BOGOs.

46:54

55:45 Bd.

58:42

68:32

I'll go 57:43 for Blu-ray. "Transformers" residuals will hold the fort for HD-DVD but I don't see how "Meet the Robinsons," "Hostel II" plus all the other day-and-date BD movies (plus a shitload of neutral Kubrick catalogue) don't keep Sony's format on top. Then comes the "Spider-Man 3" tsunami in two weeks... :(

54:46.

65:35 BR over HD

edit:forgot i had already posted my vote

My guess would be 48:52

Blu-ray 61

hd dvd 39

51:49

Best Buy is selling out of HD DVD xbox add on drives + Heroes + 2 freebies ARE to be included with it. :)
Ya know what? I'm gonna change my vote already..

Flip flop the numbers please.

49:51

58:42

61:39

fitprod

53 entries before the weekend.

Ugh, I am going to have a LOT of reminders on Monday.

This week is Prime Numbers Week.

59 : 41

It's a shame you did not make this joke last week!

Oh, I am going to add a new question to post 3. It will cover why changes are allowed. I'll type it up tomorrow.

I expect good sales of Transformers and Kubrick for HD DVD

53:47

54:46

52:48

The Xbox 360 player deal has been zealousy posted across damn near every forum and site I visit (and 90% of which have little to do with HD or games), so I'm guessing that even a steep (-85%) decline in Transformers sales wont shift sales too drastically back to Blu-ray. In fact, only a superior release list will stop Blu-ray getting beaten in a fight even giant robots couldn't win.

58:42

57:43


Trying to stay conservative.:D

59:41 Blu-ray.

60 : 40

56:44

48:52

49:51

I'm going to revise my guess and delete the post with my first guess.
My revised guess is

48:52
BD:HD DVD

53:47

56:44

59 Blu
41 HD DVD

59 Blu
41 HD DVD

55-45

50:50

why not :D

60:40

58:42

60:40

72 entries. Unless there is a run of entries tomorrow, Monday is going to see a lot of reminders sent out.

I'll try 49:51.

Because if it isn't going to happen now it might not happen for a while.

49:51

59/41

58:42

66:34

51:49

57:43

58:42

67:33

52:48

48:52

59:41

360 add-on plus free movies should be big considering Best Buy is the largest when it comes to HDM. Heavy advantage for HD DVD this week.

44:55

54:46

360 add-on plus free movies should be big considering Best Buy is the largest when it comes to HDM. Heavy advantage for HD DVD this week.

44:55
I thought the 5 free movies don't count towards software sales numbers.

64:36

55-45

55:45

I thought the 5 free movies don't count towards software sales numbers.

I'm not talking about the 5 you mail in for I'm talking about the free movies that rang up on the receipt at the stores. (indicated in thread below)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=928325

Hi,

Just as a data point,.. DVD Empires numbers for this week (though they go tuesday to tuesday instead of monday to monday) are final at 57:43 with Blu Ray winning as usual.

-Brian

53 entries before the weekend.

Ugh, I am going to have a LOT of reminders on Monday.

I'll save you one. :)

52:48

My Conspiracy Theory is that Paramount sent out every employee out to buy 10 copies each of Transformers last Friday, so they could say "See, we told you we sold 190k!" :D

47 : 53

BD : HD
52:48

I think Transformers has legs, too, and that a bunch of Blu-ray money got sucked out of the market last week (temporarily). The titles released this week seem reasonably even to me.

I also believe we're going to see a phenomenon of "buyer's confidence" start to wash over the HD DVD numbers in a way we started to see when Paramount announced HD DVD exclusivity. Existing HD DVD owners opened their wallets a little more believing their format might survive after all. I think all the chatter about $198 pricing -- at Wal-Mart, Circuit City and now Sears -- will further embolden folks to buy an extra disc or two.

49:51

Transformers residuals + Best Buy give-aways + a BD BOGO buying hangover lead to a narrow HD win this week.

93 entries. Not as bad as I feared.

There are a few people who do not add up to 100. Double check your post and make sure the BD guess is what you want.

70:30 BD w00t!

I'll say . . . 40:60 in favor of HD DVD. I think that puts me at the top -- for HD DVD, of course. (Others would say that my glass is half empty, and that my prediction puts me at the bottom! ;) But why would I listen to such talk?)

:)

By the way, I think you Blu-ray folks are seriously underestimating the power of "Motörhead: Stage Fright"! :cool:

:)

Hd 55:45 Br

70:30

49 : 51 HD DVD finally wins

BD hangover from BOGO sale

HD DVD carryover and bleed from last week for Transformers

new HD DVD hardware sales finally kick in

54:46

55:45 in favor of Blu.

55:45

60:40

48:52

58:42

The tranny will still hook for a few more $$ this week, even though HD-DVD blew its wad early. After that, things will look a little flacid for the red team.

I'm going for the 8 week average as being pretty much the standard now...

60:40

I'm also hoping this will turn out to be overly conservative, and even better for HD.

54:46

80 RED:20 BLUE
HD DVD wont stay as a underdog for long
this week is the breakthrough week!!!

58:42


I am hoping I am wrong.

Brutally off.
55/45

62:38

56:44 After the laughtastic transformers week, I think this will be the last one for BD to ever be in the 50's again. HD DVD blew their wad early.

68:32

51:49 Blu-ray. It's going to be close.

55:45

I think back to business as usual this week:

62:38

52:48 Hd Dvd.

54:46

50:50

55:45

This week is the last chance for HD DVD to steal a win in 2007. I see no holes in the holiday lineup where HD DVD can procure a win on any other week, and even this one is highly doubtful.

I've lost out betting against Blu-ray the past two weeks, which tells me I'm being too pessimistic, but I still expect residuals on Transformers to keep Blu-ray from pulling too far away in the numbers this week.

59 : 41

65:35

60:40 Bd

62:38

That would be BD:HD-DVD per convention.

50:50

55:45 - due to carryover Transformers sales and the Best Buy add-on promo.

55:45

48:52

I can't believe I let Paramount's press release lead me away from a prediction which was pretty close to one that was 13 points off last week. I'm still a bit miffed about that :)

Ah well. Let's hope I get closer this week...

55:45

59:41

47:53

Hmmm... it's been quite erratic lately with big releases, sales and whatnot - but for a change it seems like it might have been quite a 'normal' week; maybe with a few extra sales for HD-DVD with folks picking up Transformers late and a quieter week for BD after the previous mad week.

So, I'm going for dismal sales on the whole compared to last week, but a 3 point swing from the average towards the red...
57:43

58:42

60:40

60:40 Blue

57:43

60:40

65:35 Bd:hd

66:34

48:52

Blu 65 - 35 HD

64-36

55:45

46:54

63/37

57:43

51:49

Bd 64:36

51:49

51:49
Bd:hd

43:57

150 entries with a little over 24 hours to go.

59:41

48:52 Hd Dvd

48:52

58:42 (BD:HD)

Transformers will have some staying power, preventing a full reversal to what came the week before Transformers (namely that 71/29 week). But I suspect the influx of Kubrick films (and the traditional 2:1 split in sales between BD/HD on dual format releases), as well as Meet the Robinsons, should start swinging things back from last weeks numbers.

meet the robinsons, mr. brooks, and hostel 2, home of the brave should get blu to 61:39. calm before the storm, the next 2 weeks will be oh soooo dominating!

Transformers are going to drop massively but it's dropping from a huge number so it will still sell a fair amount. Also, Blu side doesn't have a huge title to counter it (merely a few decent ones). With the BOGO fatigue and the Warner titles (being all old catalogs, albeit being classics and cult favorites) probably not selling enough to affect the numbers, I expect the split to be still lower than average, something like

55:45

By the way, from the prediction point of view, I'm dreading the next two weeks much more than last (TF) week. The numbers can get so crazy getting within 2-3 percentage points (which I could do fairly consistently until last week) seems almost impossible. :o

enjoy
gandalf :o

54:46

55:45

Warner releases sell better on Blu-ray, and Meet the Robinsons adds some numbers. Sony BOGO continues, but with much less thunder. Transformers experiences higher than expected drop off due to lots of demand filled last week, but its sales are still impressive (30k+).

58:42

54:46 Bd

57:43

53/47

My average sucks

55:45.

Three new BD titles might be just enough to challenge Transformer's 2nd week.

Change to 58:42.

49:51
With Heroes being at number 2 on the HD DVD chart, I think that the AO sale/2nd week of Transformers might cancel out the day and date Blu-ray releases. Then we are left with the Kubrick titles, which are really an unknown since we don't know if the availability problems affected each side equally.

58:42

I'm not expecting a great showing for Meet the Robinsons based on where it's at now. The Amazon sales rank shows it way down there this week. Maybe it made a big showing last week though.

49:51

Regards

John.

55:45
Hd:bd

BTW I got my second perfect pick last week. I'm not sure where I got my first, but the predictions for 10/19 show I already had one. So please bring my total upto 2 please. I suspect the missing perfect is depressing my overall score also.

Forgive the whining.

53:47

60:40
bd:hd

I don't see hddvd getting any closer than the 2/1 margin for the remainder of the year. bd has just too many great releases in the next few weeks.

57:43

53:47

--Darin

59:41

60:40

BTW I got my second perfect pick last week. I'm not sure where I got my first, but the predictions for 10/19 show I already had one. So please bring my total upto 2 please. I suspect the missing perfect is depressing my overall score also.

Forgive the whining.
Apology accepted

:)

58:42

BTW I got my second perfect pick last week. I'm not sure where I got my first, but the predictions for 10/19 show I already had one. So please bring my total upto 2 please. I suspect the missing perfect is depressing my overall score also.

Forgive the whining.

Yer in there with weeks 8 and 12.

53:47

Congrats on the being the 300th person to play the game.

I'll close the week with a repeat of last week, 60:40.

When do the numbers come out?

Typically on Friday.

Uh-oh. Blu-ray got killed this week. Rentrak Data:

Blu-ray:
1 FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER (FOX, $39.98)
2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
3 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)
4 WILD HOGS (DIS, $34.99)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)

HD DVD:
TRANSFORMERS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY (WB, $28.99)
3 300 (WB, $39.99)
4 HEROES: SEASON 1 (UNI, $99.98)
5 A CLOCKWORK ORANGE (WB, $28.99)

The second half of BOGO helped Blu-ray but Transformers really stood up. Sure, Pirates carried on at 50% off ... but 2001 proves HD DVD has legs as an installed base platform where studios can continue to re-sell their back catalogs for another decade. That's, ultimately, what the "war" is about.

Blu-ray may still "win" the week ... but the tide is clearly turning.

Uh-oh. Blu-ray got killed this week. Rentrak Data:

Blu-ray:
1 FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER (FOX, $39.98)
2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
3 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)
4 WILD HOGS (DIS, $34.99)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)

HD DVD:
TRANSFORMERS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY (WB, $28.99)
3 300 (WB, $39.99)
4 HEROES: SEASON 1 (UNI, $99.98)
5 A CLOCKWORK ORANGE (WB, $28.99)

The second half of BOGO helped Blu-ray but Transformers really stood up. Sure, Pirates carried on at 50% off ... but 2001 proves HD DVD has legs as an installed base platform where studios can continue to re-sell their back catalogs for another decade. That's, ultimately, what the "war" is about.

Blu-ray may still "win" the week ... but the tide is clearly turning.

It would help if you quoted the right stats... Your Blu-ray stats are for 9/21/07.

Correct stats for 9/28/07

1 MEET THE ROBINSONS (DIS, $34.99)
2 MR. BROOKS (MGM/FOX, $39.98)
3 HOSTEL PART II (SONY, $38.96)
4 FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER (FOX, $39.98)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)
6 A CLOCKWORK ORANGE (WB, $28.99)
7 SURF'S UP (SONY, $38.96)
8 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
9 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
10 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)

Of course these are from Rentrack which is usually slightly difference than Neilsen.

fitprod

60:40

The second half of BOGO helped Blu-ray but Transformers really stood up. Sure, Pirates carried on at 50% off ... but 2001 proves HD DVD has legs as an installed base platform where studios can continue to re-sell their back catalogs for another decade. That's, ultimately, what the "war" is about.

Blu-ray may still "win" the week ... but the tide is clearly turning.

It's sort of interesting to read what people think about the format war when presented with incorrect data. Or when presenting it.

Did i win? :rolleyes:

Uh-oh. Blu-ray got killed this week.
Blu-ray may still "win" the week ...
Uno HD-DUD Fanboi!

55:45

Uno HD-DUD Fanboi!

Hi, Jocky. Just thought I'd let you know. We play nice in this thread and don't say things like that. :)

Cheers!

What website post the Neilson results?

55:45
I'm getting fed up of being right all the time :D

^ I like this feeling. Now I know what it feels like to get the right number. 55:45 it is, and this is my first dead-on wild-ass guess. It pays to throw away all that statistical spreadsheet nonsense and simply go make up some number and go with your gut.

Alright! Finally, vindication for 2 weeks of being totally way off!

Two in a row for the most unpredictable weeks!

So is the speculation that the Heros ranking was greatly helped by the package deal? I am not surprised by the Transformers ranking, but Heros so high at this point? I would have never predicted it being #2, ahead of Meet the Robinsons and clobbering everything below it.

Did anyone predict this?

Damn! Missed my third perfect guess by 1.

me too off by one, but is still improves my average by allot!

are the numbers out? Is it really 55:45? If it is, that is not good for BD, given the releases they had.

Nielsen contest results for 11/02/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 55:45

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
rob71 55:45 3 0.67
sodrock 53:47 2 2.00
Blumoon 53:47 1 2.00
bato 53:47 1 2.00
Rooper 54:46 5 2.20
gand41f 55:45 12 2.42
JeffY 58:42 11 2.55
Wet1 57:43 12 2.58
Enigma 56:44 12 2.58
badandy642 57:43 8 2.63
MASrules 56:44 13 2.69
huntaar 59:41 8 2.75
Bill0711 55:45 4 2.75
theflux 55:45 13 2.92
Everdog 58:42 13 3.00
Neo1965 55:45 13 3.00
stefanpaulmayer 59:41 11 3.00
Grubert 49:51 11 3.00
nakedeye 60:40 9 3.00
assayer 49:51 9 3.00
MattHD 57:43 3 3.00
darkedgex 58:42 2 3.00
SCLlmaa 58:42 1 3.00
Elwar 52:48 1 3.00
SamwisetheBrave 52:48 1 3.00
MichaelHDDVD 58:42 13 3.08
TPigeon2006 55:45 13 3.08
dad1153 57:43 12 3.08
BuGsArEtAsTy 59:41 10 3.10
user friendly 60:40 6 3.17
alfbinet 52:48 5 3.20
neillkirn 51:49 8 3.25
Azumi 54:46 13 3.31
extra_hc 59:41 12 3.33
FortySix&2 57:43 6 3.33
Greg Kettell 55:45 3 3.33
habscolts 56:44 5 3.40
dumbswede 58:42 7 3.43
JAC6 54:46 7 3.43
Sketcha 57:43 13 3.46
lomax 56:44 13 3.46
darinp2 53:47 13 3.46
iontyre 56:44 10 3.50
JoeFigueiredo 58:42 2 3.50
trondmm 55:45 9 3.56
jhinesjr 59:41 5 3.60
digicam95 60:40 8 3.63
todrigo 65:35 11 3.64
shamus 54:46 12 3.67
ixalon 57:43 3 3.67
CochiseGuy 52:48 8 3.75
khwiggins2 51:49 4 3.75
aaronwt 48:52 13 3.77
BrynRhys 59:41 9 3.78
oregoncalfroper 55:45 5 3.80
Blu-Devil 51:49 12 3.83
David Scott 48:52 13 3.92
Raxel 53:47 12 3.92
manikin 56:44 13 4.00
ottscay 62:38 12 4.00
fitprod 61:39 12 4.00
Will d s 59:41 9 4.00
Lbarber 57:43 4 4.00
Evan702 61:39 3 4.00
Reylas 64:36 13 4.08
Icemage 59:41 13 4.08
online 58:42 13 4.08
GeorgeLV 57:43 12 4.08
Vov76 65:35 9 4.11
wipron 55:45 7 4.14
hammie34 52:48 13 4.15
Aresca 54:46 6 4.17
LynxFX 56:44 13 4.23
donricouga 64:36 12 4.33
anotheraviator 54:46 9 4.33
Noggin1980 49:51 9 4.33
UxiSXRD 57:43 13 4.38
Ronin_R6 58:42 10 4.40
spacejamz 64:36 12 4.42
boomster 58:42 9 4.44
mlankton 55:45 8 4.50
merv43 60:40 2 4.50
bunkaroo 55:45 2 4.50
frasersean 60:40 12 4.58
mswoods1 57:43 8 4.63
soremekun 60:40 12 4.67
Baccusboy 58:42 10 4.70
Reginald Trent 55:45 7 4.71
yampan 48:52 4 4.75
geko29 58:42 13 4.77
ICBM99 60:40 11 4.82
allargon 65:35 12 4.83
Kemet 61:39 6 4.83
caesartheboxer 51:49 8 4.88
coolhand 49:51 8 4.88
chirpie 67:33 9 4.89
GJN 66:34 4 5.00
-diVe- 68:32 3 5.00
Jagt Mirage 58:42 3 5.00
anttimony 63:37 2 5.00
Lyion 60:40 2 5.00
Kristua 60:40 1 5.00
PLC1843 50:50 1 5.00
GmanAVS 47:53 12 5.08
crimsona 53:47 12 5.33
luclin999 48:52 5 5.40
ToddUGA 56:44 6 5.50
PrinceLH 59:41 4 5.50
SquirrelPhister 46:54 4 5.50
bori 58:42 2 5.50
chipvideo 55:45 2 5.50
Jonto81 62:38 9 5.56
MarekM 64:36 13 5.62
eightninesuited 59:41 13 5.62
phansson 66:34 8 5.63
george king 60:40 6 5.67
PopcornReady 52:48 6 5.67
rdjam 60:40 13 5.69
JackBee 59:41 7 5.71
dobyblue 54:46 7 5.86
Jim Morrison 70:30 11 5.91
Jeff Flowerday 60:40 6 6.00
bigdaveman 50:50 5 6.00
spam.curitiba 61:39 2 6.00
Jarod M 49:51 1 6.00
user4avsforum 45:55 9 6.11
JetJock3315 59:41 7 6.14
wreckshop 70:30 12 6.17
theone2 55:45 6 6.17
briankmonkey 44:56 13 6.38
edgebsl 63:37 5 6.40
ptysell 62:38 8 6.50
Winn 60:40 13 6.54
Brian Hampton 55:45 5 6.60
Kable 55:45 6 6.67
ninjanki 65:35 3 6.67
Chris_TC 58:42 5 6.80
hd nOOb 51:49 6 7.00
dmcfan 50:50 2 7.00
frishizzle 62:38 1 7.00
SGRSBSKIER 48:52 9 7.11
Numanoid101 48:52 4 7.25
Hockeytown Fan 43:57 4 7.25
CRFTony 70:30 8 7.50
ChristopherB 69:31 4 7.50
Clark Burk 54:46 2 7.50
Kosty 49:51 13 7.54
jkwest 68:32 11 7.55
mcgarnagle 70:30 5 7.60
Mel2 61:39 5 7.60
kkozma 49:51 7 7.71
xradman 45:55 7 7.86
krylonone 49:51 9 7.89
MrXpress 47:53 1 8.00
Robert Spalding 65:35 5 8.20
tonngo0 60:40 5 8.20
BrerBear 46:54 2 8.50
tiger roach 62:38 2 9.00
ataxic_dentist 60:40 2 9.00
Ethos99 64:36 1 9.00
DanTou 60:40 4 9.25
m1cst4rr 48:52 2 10.00
Chris NYC 65:35 1 10.00
rover2002 49:51 9 10.44
D-X 48:52 4 10.50
Dot50Cal 62:38 2 10.50
Xylon 48:52 3 11.00
dc_pilgrim 68:32 2 13.50
rcutlass70 66:34 2 15.00
Sy- 66:34 2 16.00
Shmack 40:60 12 18.33
pythagoras 49:51 3 18.33
Andy_Dandy 47:53 4 19.50
winmacme 20:80 2 33.00


Perfect picks:

Kable
Brian Hampton
theone2
chipvideo
Reginald Trent
mlankton
bunkaroo
wipron
oregoncalfroper
trondmm
Greg Kettell
TPigeon2006
Neo1965
theflux
Bill0711
gand41f
rob71


Congrats as always.

are the numbers out? Is it really 55:45? If it is, that is not good for BD, given the releases they had.


What releases? Five old movies also released for HD DVD and a Disney movie?

No $hit!

Whatever, George. :rolleyes:

BTW... I own an A2 now. ;)

Looks like next week's going to be another tough on after all.

are the numbers out? Is it really 55:45? If it is, that is not good for BD, given the releases they had.

Link (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom110407/)

Link (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom110407/)

God I hate NXTbooks. We use them at work. Talk about trying to make a circle fit a square...

wasn't spidey last week?

The spidey numbers will be next week.

This was Transformers week 2 vs Meet the robinsons.

HD DVD should have done better. Transformers must have really fallen off.

BTW... I own an A2 now. ;)

Hey, Sketcha, that's cool. Congrats on the new purchase. And enjoy! :)

The spidey numbers will be next week.

This was Transformers week 2 vs Meet the robinsons.

HD DVD should have done better. Transformers must have really fallen off.

What makes you say that? It was 51:49 last week when Transformers had nothing to go against. This week there were actual new releases, so given the fact that Transformers sales should go down in Week 2, and Blu Ray's should go up with actual new releases, this seems right in line with what should happen.

wasn't spidey last week?

No Spider-man was released this week.

What makes you say that? It was 51:49 last week when Transformers had nothing to go against. This week there were actual new releases, so given the fact that Transformers sales should go down in Week 2, and Blu Ray's should go up with actual new releases, this seems right in line with what should happen.

So you're of the opinion that the BOGO for Blu-ray didn't actually generate any sales. That's...unique.

I don't know if 55/45 is a good showing for one format or the other. I just know that Heroes selling 47.91% as many disks as Transformers this long after release is absolutely AMAZING. A ton of those must have been the get free with the 360 add-on promo. Were there other promos that included Heroes? Were they all hardware promos or was there some sort of media only sale?

Yess! Great to bounce back with a perfect pick after last week's trainwreck. That means I also have the most perfect picks :)

Too bad last week increased my total score with about 50%, though :(

theFlux,

No Spider-man was released this week.

Thanks. I didnt care for the first one and never watched the rest, so I didn't really pay attention.

Wow, it's amazing how many guys (which have participated 10 weeks or more) are at 3.0 or better. :cool:

13 weeks and i got a 3.46 i have to save that it is going to go up this week, i got even less of a clue.

I got lucky this week. :) Second perfect pick and now I think I have the lowest average among regulars.

I'm sure it's not going to last, I have no idea what next week's numbers are gonna be....

enjoy
gandalf

I had the perfect score then changed it :(