UPDATED:
I have attached a .ZIP file containing two files:
- Sales Ratios.htm
(this is an updated version of the calculations below, using STRICTLY mathematical formulas, replacing all of my variables with a designated letter.
- Sales Ratio Calculator.xls
You can input any numbers you want into the YELLOW fields, and it will calculate the totals accordingly. (for example, based on most of my estimates below, Blu Ray would have had to only have 7% of their sales for the week as B1G1 units in order to make more gross income than HD DVD)

Feel free to play with it all you like, but DON'T modify the Greyed-out fields on your own unless you want to play with the formulas.

UPDATE: added new version of calculator to include HD DVD B1G1 percentage.






I posted this over at DVDTalk, but I figured it was worth posting here.
I should note that I'm not trying to force my perspective on people, but rather, see what I can come up with. I only state one of the ratios as fact, along with my final conclusions. Everything else is pure speculation. My numbers may not be accurate, but, based on the 51:49 ratio, you could throw any numbers in there, and you will have a similar result.

With that said, here comes the math (slightly revised from my DVDTalk version)...

Fact: BD units outsold HD units by a 51:49 ratio between 10/14 and 10/21
Fixed Ratio: 1.0408163265306:1

To make that number fit into the real world, let's assume that 200,000 HD DVDs were sold. That means there were 208,200 BDs sold.

We also have to assume an average price for discs sold before the B1G1 discount was applied. Assuming no expensive box sets were sold, I think a fair average price is $25.00. You can input any number you want, but the results will end up similar anyway. I am also going to assume that 50% of the BD units were sold in the B1G1 sale. I will calculate this as 104,100 units sold at 50% off (price is higher than B1G1 logic if second item is below the price of the 'purchased' item)

NOTE: I know that there are a lot of assumptions, but I'm attempting to be very conservative, if not realistic.

Okay, here we go...

Part I: Market Share

208,200 BD units = (104,100 units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750 spent on BD

200,000 HD units = 200,000 units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000 spent on HD

$8,903,750 spent on HDM between 10/14 and 10/21.
BD Market Share = 43.844%
HD Market Share = 56.156%


Part II: Sale price of discs

208,200 BD units = (104,100 BD units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50

200,000 HD units = 200,000 HD units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00 (no change of result, obviously)

408,200 HDM units sold between 10/14 and 10/21
208,200 BD units sold @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD units sold @ ~ $25.00


Part III: Customers

Let's assume that each customer who utilized the B1G1 sale only purchased one set of movies (ie. 2 units per customer). We will also assume that each customer who didn't utilize the B1G1 sale only purchased one item. This is definitely a conservative number, but I'm trying to give BD the upper hand. :)

208,200 BD units sold = (104,100 BD units) + (104,100 BD units @ B1G1)
208,200 BD units sold = 104,100 customers + 52,050 customers
208,200 BD units sold = 156,150 BD customers

200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD units
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD customers

356,150 HDM customers between 10/14 and 10/21
156,150 BD customers bought items @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD customers bought items @ ~ $25.00



Thus, despite my assumed numbers (which are in favour of Blu Ray), I conclude that in the week of 10/14 to 10/21:
1. HD DVD had the higher Market Share
2. HD DVD had higher prices
3. HD DVD, despite the Blu Ray B1G1 sale, had at least 28% more customers buying product, even at higher prices

Edit: Adding a fourth conclusion

4. Blu Ray would have had to sell an extra 30% of their total units (half at half-off, half at average price)to match HD DVDs Market Share

I posted this over at DVDTalk, but I figured it was worth posting here.
I should note that I'm not trying to force my perspective on people, but rather, see what I can come up with. I only state one of the ratios as fact, along with my final conclusions. Everything else is pure speculation. My numbers may not be accurate, but, based on the 51:49 ratio, you could throw any numbers in there, and you will have a similar result.

With that said, here comes the math (slightly revised from my DVDTalk version)...

Fact: BD units outsold HD units by a 51:49 ratio between 10/14 and 10/21
Fixed Ratio: 1.0408163265306:1

To make that number fit into the real world, let's assume that 200,000 HD DVDs were sold. That means there were 208,200 BDs sold.

We also have to assume an average price for discs sold before the B1G1 discount was applied. Assuming no expensive box sets were sold, I think a fair average price is $25.00. You can input any number you want, but the results will end up similar anyway. I am also going to assume that 50% of the BD units were sold in the B1G1 sale. I will calculate this as 104,100 units sold at 50% off (price is higher than B1G1 logic if second item is below the price of the 'purchased' item)

NOTE: I know that there are a lot of assumptions, but I'm attempting to be very conservative, if not realistic.

Okay, here we go...

Part I: Market Share

208,200 BD units = (104,100 units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750 spent on BD

200,000 HD units = 200,000 units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000 spent on HD

$8,903,750 spent on HDM between 10/14 and 10/21.
BD Market Share = 43.844%
HD Market Share = 56.156%


Part II: Sale price of discs

208,200 BD units = (104,100 BD units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50

200,000 HD units = 200,000 HD units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00 (no change of result, obviously)

408,200 HDM units sold between 10/14 and 10/21
208,200 BD units sold @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD units sold @ ~ $25.00


Part III: Customers

Let's assume that each customer who utilized the B1G1 sale only purchased one set of movies (ie. 2 units per customer). We will also assume that each customer who didn't utilize the B1G1 sale only purchased one item. This is definitely a conservative number, but I'm trying to give BD the upper hand. :)

208,200 BD units sold = (104,100 BD units) + (104,100 BD units @ B1G1)
208,200 BD units sold = 104,100 customers + 52,050 customers
208,200 BD units sold = 156,150 BD customers

200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD units
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD customers

356,150 HDM customers between 10/14 and 10/21
156,150 BD customers bought items @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD customers bought items @ ~ $25.00



Thus, despite my assumed numbers (which are in favour of Blu Ray), I conclude that in the week of 10/14 to 10/21:
1. HD DVD had the higher Market Share
2. HD DVD had higher prices
3. HD DVD, despite the Blu Ray B1G1 sale, had at least 28% more customers buying product, even at higher prices

Hope your wearing fire retardent clothing, thread will get out of hand in 5..4..3..2..1

Well, let's hope the mods see what I'm trying to accomplish...

Good points. see sig

I think you are bang on and you're only doing the math the studios, BDA, and HD-DVD PG have already done.

Unfortunately they all know the media has only been looking at one thing all along. Neilson unit sales statistics. It will never be reported by the media as anything other than "BD managed to fend off the Transformers onslaught to maintain a dead even ratio"

I think in the side lines the BDA is VERY concerned that Warner is likely doing this very same math.

On top of that you haven't factored in the actual profit per disc which none of us know. We only know that BD are approx 30% more expensive to replicate.

You're missing a third option in your poll:

"It's time to let go, son..."

You're missing a third option in your poll:

"It's time to let go, son..."

please keep useless comments (even if true, in this case) to yourself.

Why not post this in the Nielson thread where the discussion on this is occurring?

On top of that you haven't factored in the actual profit per disc which none of us know. We only know that BD are approx 30% more expensive to replicate.

don't tempt me!!

don't tempt me!!

I think it'd be too speculative to go to that level. Where you have it right now, there is no question regarding "gross income".

I wouldn't even bother speculating about net income because we don't know how much of the production cost lies in actual disc manufacturing (which we know is about 30% higher for Bluray). We also don't know about subsidies provided to the studios for manufacturing and production.

What you have provided is enough for the studios to see (given they know their real fixed costs) how viable each format would be on a decent sized release.

I think it was a good week for HD DVD, and I think Spider-Man will soon produce a good week for Blu-Ray. Not to be a hypocrite, I bought Transformers, and I like it. Having said that, I think that the most significant releases of the month were the Kubrick films--and yes, I did buy them! I am pleased that they are selling well on both formats, but they will not begin to match either Spider-Man or Transformers, and that is sad. With both formats it seems that great special effects will trump "great movie." Again, I am as guilty as anyone, but I wish movies such as Casablanca, for example, were doing better, and when I look at movies of that type, I am not yet impressed with the sales figures of either Blu-Ray or HD DVD. However, I am looking forward to the sales figures from Christmas 2008!

I admit, the only area that people can argue me is the number of people who utilized the B1G1 deal. Maybe it's way less than 50% of the sales (which would increase the average price for BD)... but maybe some people bought 20 movies. That's why I chose the conservative (ie. middle ground).

In a vacuum: Looks good.

In the real world: You are comparing a day in date release of a hit movie to catalog titles, some of which were released on DVD long before they were released on HDM.

I'm curious to see any solid points contradicting those assessments besides "get over it, HD DUD lost" or "HD DVD had a BOGO too".

The numbers look feasible to me and I think if you can extrapolate that 50% of the BR discs were part of the BOGO, then your figures definitely make sense.

In the real world: You are comparing a day in date release of a hit movie to catalog titles, some of which were released on DVD long before they were released on HDM.

I made no mention of that specific title. I refer only to the week in question. I can do the same on the week of Oct 30 if you like, but (to be fair) only if HD has a B1G1 sale, and BD does not (excluding point-of-sale register errors)

No matter how you want to spin it with numbers, charts or graphs but the end result is that Blu-ray out sold HD DVD, again.

Everything in your number crunch is pure speculation unless you have the finanical revenue books from the companies that sell the discs.

Just face it that HD DVD came in 2nd in sales behind 1st place Blu-ray, which should be "good enough" for a value priced product.
/thread.

Just face it that HD DVD came in 2nd in sales behind 1st place Blu-ray, which should be "good enough" for a value priced product.
/thread.

Second in UNIT sales.

I'm curious to see any solid points contradicting those assessments besides "get over it, HD DUD lost" or "HD DVD had a BOGO too".

The numbers look feasible to me and I think if you can extrapolate that 50% of the BR discs were part of the BOGO, then your figures definitely make sense.

The blu brigade loves to respond with talking points designed to side step the issue and/or question. So don't hold your breath unless you're practicing for deep sea diving. ;)

Spin it all you like HD-DVD still got owned.... I take that back.... More Blu-Ray disks got owned than HD-DVD's :)

No matter how you want to spin it with numbers, charts or graphs but the end result is that Blu-ray out sold HD DVD, again.
I never said otherwise. BD beat HD by a 1.04:1 ratio. It's there in my post.

Everything in your number crunch is pure speculation unless you have the finanical revenue books from the companies that sell the discs.
The only bit of speculation that affects my number crunch is the estimate on the number of B1G1 units sold. If anyone can provide a concrete number, I'll change my original post.

Just face it that HD DVD came in 2nd in sales behind 1st place Blu-ray, which should be "good enough" for a value priced product.
/thread.
Again, I didn't say otherwise. I was calculating Market Share, Estimated Customers and Cost.

No matter what I speculated in my original post, HD DVD absolutely had more Market Share and more customers, despite higher prices due to the BD sale.

No matter how you want to spin it with numbers, charts or graphs but the end result is that Blu-ray out sold HD DVD, again.



This is a perfect example of the flawed logic continually spewed by the blu brigade. It's like a whore (BD) bragging that men are more attracted to her over a woman with morals (HD DVD). It might be true but doesn't it matter why it is that way?

BTW,
I voted for the first option in the poll.

There's no need to get emotional, right? :)

Spin it all you like HD-DVD still got owned.... I take that back.... More Blu-Ray disks got owned than HD-DVD's :)

How much market share did Bluray gain since inception, or year to date last week?

Or was it a massive loss? Who owned who?

How much market share did Bluray gain since inception, or year to date last week?

Or was it a massive loss? Who owned who?


Shall I save your post for the results of December 4th?

Or how about just till after the week of October 30th is posted.... :rolleyes:


Spin spin spin spin spin spin spin.....

Loving the damage control. Never a dull moment.

Everything in your number crunch is pure speculation unless you have the finanical revenue books from the companies that sell the discs.

Interesting, so how do you know Blu-Ray outsold HD DVD? You have the financial revenue books?

Shall I save your post for the results of December 4th?

Or how about just till after the week of October 30th is posted.... :rolleyes:


Spin spin spin spin spin spin spin.....

Loving the damage control. Never a dull moment.

Huh? You said Bluray owned HD-DVD last week. I'm not talking about next week or December. Who's spinning here?

If you make a nice little line graph with YTD vs. Last week you see Bluray plummeting downwards and HD-DVD climbing massively.

That's Bluray getting owned by a single release.

Of course, next week is a new week and that same line graph could swing the other way. Regardless, since we are all talking about last weeks sales, we could say that based on the current trends, Bluray got slapped around by a single title.

You can try to spin it anyway you want. HD-DVD gained market share, Bluray lost market share -- for last week.

please keep useless comments (even if true, in this case) to yourself.

Just kidding dude...sheesh...

There's no need to get emotional, right? :)

That I do agree with...;)

Huh? You said Bluray owned HD-DVD last week. I'm not talking about next week or December. Who's spinning here?

If you make a nice little line graph with YTD vs. Last week you see Bluray plummeting downwards and HD-DVD climbing massively.

That's Bluray getting owned by a single release.

Of course, next week is a new week and that same line graph could swing the other way. Regardless, since we are all talking about last weeks sales, we could say that based on the current trends, Bluray got slapped around by a single title.

You can try to spin it anyway you want. HD-DVD gained market share, Bluray lost market share -- for last week.

Check who you quoted before making claims... :rolleyes:


And you can try and spin it any way you like... HD DVD has still failed to win a week this year, even with arguably one of the top 5 HDM releases of the year exclusive to the format and day & date.

HD DVD has still failed to win a week this year
I know your reply wasn't directed to me, but...

I think we all need to step back and realize that ALL numbers are subjective (depending on who's reading)

BD sold more units. Fine. But how many customers bought BD vs HD, knowing that there was a huge BD sale across all of North America? My conclusion is... not too many.

I think the OP did a great job on putting these numbers together. Even with a +/- of 10%, HD DVD revenues were better than BDs because of the B1G1. Was it worth it to BD to lose $$ to show a slaes lead? I hope the BD studios are happy...


.... just my 2.825 cents worth

Without knowing the exact number of discs sold as part of a 1/2 off sale and those sold at regular price, this whole thread is an exercise in futility *seemingly* designed to give the more rabid of hd dvd fanbois something to feel good about.

This is a perfect example of the flawed logic continually spewed by the blu brigade. It's like a whore (BD) bragging that men are more attracted to her over a woman with morals (HD DVD). It might be true but doesn't it matter why it is that way?The only whore, is Paramount!

Just as a point of interest, I know that in my case, the BOGO sale was the only reason I bought Blu-ray. Indeed, I bought movies when I didn't even own a player because I knew a lot of those movies were movies I'd get anyway. As it turns out, I got tired of waiting, and ended up buying a Samsung 1400.

Still, the point is, this sale could have created lots of new Blu-ray owners precisely because of cheap media prices -- something even a blockbuster title might not have done.

I think most importantly, even if this thread is 100% correct, and HD DVD made more money and sold HDM to more customers for this week.....And? So what? What's the point?

The point is that, no matter how you look at it, more customers bought HD DVDs than BDs that week, and at higher prices. So much so that, even though BD sold more units, HD DVD still made more money.

Based on my number crunching...
Blu Ray would have had to sell 270,270 units to match HD DVDs gross income for 200,000 units
That is, assuming that 50% of BD units were B1G1. Of course, the B1G1 units would have sold even moreso, bringing down the average sale price of BD units, so it'd take more units to match HD DVD.

Excellent post.:)
However I doubt the PS3 crowd can follow.;)

I posted this over at DVDTalk, but I figured it was worth posting here.
I should note that I'm not trying to force my perspective on people, but rather, see what I can come up with. I only state one of the ratios as fact, along with my final conclusions. Everything else is pure speculation. My numbers may not be accurate, but, based on the 51:49 ratio, you could throw any numbers in there, and you will have a similar result.

With that said, here comes the math (slightly revised from my DVDTalk version)...

Fact: BD units outsold HD units by a 51:49 ratio between 10/14 and 10/21
Fixed Ratio: 1.0408163265306:1

To make that number fit into the real world, let's assume that 200,000 HD DVDs were sold. That means there were 208,200 BDs sold.

We also have to assume an average price for discs sold before the B1G1 discount was applied. Assuming no expensive box sets were sold, I think a fair average price is $25.00. You can input any number you want, but the results will end up similar anyway. I am also going to assume that 50% of the BD units were sold in the B1G1 sale. I will calculate this as 104,100 units sold at 50% off (price is higher than B1G1 logic if second item is below the price of the 'purchased' item)

NOTE: I know that there are a lot of assumptions, but I'm attempting to be very conservative, if not realistic.

Okay, here we go...

Part I: Market Share

208,200 BD units = (104,100 units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750 spent on BD

200,000 HD units = 200,000 units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000 spent on HD

$8,903,750 spent on HDM between 10/14 and 10/21.
BD Market Share = 43.844%
HD Market Share = 56.156%


Part II: Sale price of discs

208,200 BD units = (104,100 BD units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50

200,000 HD units = 200,000 HD units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00 (no change of result, obviously)

408,200 HDM units sold between 10/14 and 10/21
208,200 BD units sold @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD units sold @ ~ $25.00


Part III: Customers

Let's assume that each customer who utilized the B1G1 sale only purchased one set of movies (ie. 2 units per customer). We will also assume that each customer who didn't utilize the B1G1 sale only purchased one item. This is definitely a conservative number, but I'm trying to give BD the upper hand. :)

208,200 BD units sold = (104,100 BD units) + (104,100 BD units @ B1G1)
208,200 BD units sold = 104,100 customers + 52,050 customers
208,200 BD units sold = 156,150 BD customers

200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD units
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD customers

356,150 HDM customers between 10/14 and 10/21
156,150 BD customers bought items @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD customers bought items @ ~ $25.00



Thus, despite my assumed numbers (which are in favour of Blu Ray), I conclude that in the week of 10/14 to 10/21:
1. HD DVD had the higher Market Share
2. HD DVD had higher prices
3. HD DVD, despite the Blu Ray B1G1 sale, had at least 28% more customers buying product, even at higher prices

Without knowing the exact number of discs sold as part of a 1/2 off sale and those sold at regular price

Do you think that 50% of the discs sold isn't enough? Too many?
+ / - 10%... it's still a win for HD DVD.

No matter how you want to spin it with numbers, charts or graphs but the end result is that Blu-ray out sold HD DVD, again.

Everything in your number crunch is pure speculation unless you have the finanical revenue books from the companies that sell the discs.

Just face it that HD DVD came in 2nd in sales behind 1st place Blu-ray, which should be "good enough" for a value priced product.
/thread. But Paramount and other studios and retailers can probably come to the same results.

Notice the HMM magazine edition only had the 51/49 pie chart and did not have the SI and YTD numbers?

That close to dead even chart is the thing a lot of retailers will notice.

Do you think that 50% of the discs sold isn't enough? Too many?
+ / - 10%... it's still a win for HD DVD.

While I fully admit that I could be wrong, I don't believe that there is enough information available to even make an educated guess.

No matter how you want to spin it with numbers, charts or graphs but the end result is that Blu-ray out sold HD DVD, again

But the margin was a commanding 1.0408 to 1.

The "public" sees one thing (does the public even know or heard of Nielsen Videoscan - I strongly doubt it) while the studios see something entirely different.

We who represent the public here at AVS see the sales ratio. We know it is not 100% factual because we know there is data missing.

The studios on the other hand know a hell of alot more than we do because they are the manufacturer. They know their costs down to the last penny. They know exactly who is selling their product and how many are being sold. They subscribe to Videoscan so that they can see what their competitors - the other studios - are doing.

Until such time, and that time is fast approaching, that HD DVD can take a commanding lead in the sale of SAL players, nothing is going to change as far as the sales ratio.

Sure studios can fool around with the price of movies - look how much they cost. But they will not and have not fooled around (they being the CEM's) with the price of a SAL player.

Does anyone here truly believe that Sony will tolerate another CEM selling their BD SAL for less of a price (at least $100) then the PS3? It hasn't happened yet has it?

And the studios see the large difference between BD and HD as far as players in the wild - and they see HD is STILL in the game - no matter what the BDA or Sony does.

And Wal-Mart just started selling the A2W for $198 . . . almost $300 less expensive than the lowest BD SAL player at $488.

So what do you think the public's reaction to those prices is going to be . . . from the company that sells more DVD's than anyone on the planet?

At the time of this posting,
44.7% of you think I'm crazy (43.5% if I hadn't voted that way, myself)
:)

I posted this over at DVDTalk, but I figured it was worth posting here.
I should note that I'm not trying to force my perspective on people, but rather, see what I can come up with. I only state one of the ratios as fact, along with my final conclusions. Everything else is pure speculation. My numbers may not be accurate, but, based on the 51:49 ratio, you could throw any numbers in there, and you will have a similar result.

With that said, here comes the math (slightly revised from my DVDTalk version)...

Fact: BD units outsold HD units by a 51:49 ratio between 10/14 and 10/21
Fixed Ratio: 1.0408163265306:1

To make that number fit into the real world, let's assume that 200,000 HD DVDs were sold. That means there were 208,200 BDs sold.

We also have to assume an average price for discs sold before the B1G1 discount was applied. Assuming no expensive box sets were sold, I think a fair average price is $25.00. You can input any number you want, but the results will end up similar anyway. I am also going to assume that 50% of the BD units were sold in the B1G1 sale. I will calculate this as 104,100 units sold at 50% off (price is higher than B1G1 logic if second item is below the price of the 'purchased' item)

NOTE: I know that there are a lot of assumptions, but I'm attempting to be very conservative, if not realistic.

Okay, here we go...

Part I: Market Share

208,200 BD units = (104,100 units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750 spent on BD

200,000 HD units = 200,000 units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000 spent on HD

$8,903,750 spent on HDM between 10/14 and 10/21.
BD Market Share = 43.844%
HD Market Share = 56.156%


Part II: Sale price of discs

208,200 BD units = (104,100 BD units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50

200,000 HD units = 200,000 HD units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00 (no change of result, obviously)

408,200 HDM units sold between 10/14 and 10/21
208,200 BD units sold @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD units sold @ ~ $25.00


Part III: Customers

Let's assume that each customer who utilized the B1G1 sale only purchased one set of movies (ie. 2 units per customer). We will also assume that each customer who didn't utilize the B1G1 sale only purchased one item. This is definitely a conservative number, but I'm trying to give BD the upper hand. :)

208,200 BD units sold = (104,100 BD units) + (104,100 BD units @ B1G1)
208,200 BD units sold = 104,100 customers + 52,050 customers
208,200 BD units sold = 156,150 BD customers

200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD units
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD customers

356,150 HDM customers between 10/14 and 10/21
156,150 BD customers bought items @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD customers bought items @ ~ $25.00



Thus, despite my assumed numbers (which are in favour of Blu Ray), I conclude that in the week of 10/14 to 10/21:
1. HD DVD had the higher Market Share
2. HD DVD had higher prices
3. HD DVD, despite the Blu Ray B1G1 sale, had at least 28% more customers buying product, even at higher prices

Edit: Adding a fourth conclusion

4. Blu Ray would have had to sell an extra 30% of their total units (half at half-off, half at average price)to match HD DVDs Market Share

Well your figures will be off from the start because you have no HDDVD BOGO
numbers. Since there were multiple posts about HDDVD owners having circuity city give them BOGO on HDDVD titles as well. The entire sales section is rendered useless, and since they WERE gettin BOGO then 200,000 units sold CANNOT= 200,000 customers, which was laughable to start with.

Well your figures will be off from the start because you have no HDDVD BOGO
numbers. Since there were multiple posts about HDDVD owners having circuity city give them BOGO on HDDVD titles as well. The entire sales section is rendered useless, and since they WERE gettin BOGO then 200,000 units sold CANNOT= 200,000 customers, which was laughable to start with.

You're trying to say that, given my estimates...
if 200,000 HD DVDs were sold, 180,000 of which were Transformers (1 copy = 1 customer. I don't know ANYONE who bought multiples), there were 20,000 HD DVDs sold at B1G1 due to a glitch at SOME Circuit City locations??

no.

as I said before, my numbers ARE estimates. If you can provide better data (that doesn't already support BD like my data does), I'll use it.

Market share is never done by revenue. Units sold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_share

expressed as a company's sales revenue (from that market) divided by the total sales revenue available in that market. It can also be expressed as a company's unit sales volume (in a market) divided by the total volume of units sold in that market.

both are used.

You're trying to say that, given my estimates...
if 200,000 HD DVDs were sold, 180,000 of which were Transformers (1 copy = 1 customer. I don't know ANYONE who bought multiples), there were 20,000 HD DVDs sold at B1G1 due to a glitch at SOME Circuit City locations??

no.

as I said before, my numbers ARE estimates. If you can provide better data (that doesn't already support BD like my data does), I'll use it.


You have no data, your guessing at everything. Now your saying that outside of the Transformers, only 20,000 copies of EVERY OTHER HDDVD RELEASED up to this day were purchased this week. Dude you are way off.

On top of that you haven't factored in the actual profit per disc which none of us know. We only know that BD are approx 30% more expensive to replicate.

If that's still true (which I doubt), the studios should charge more for Blu-Ray discs. I certainly have no problem paying more for a superior product.

Market share is never done by revenue. Units sold.

In Sony's world. In the real world it's much more.

Six factors to help estimate the value of market share :

1. unit or dollar sales
2. user base (since piracy and brand switching effect)
3. market definition(scope of definitions)
4. scope of denominator(which other brands included)
5. time frame length
6. product definition (brand, product line, or strategic business unit)

Paramount said 180,000 Transformers were sold. Nielson doesn't agree, only because they don't track Wal-Mart (or Amazon if I'm correct), among other 'minor' retailers.

Also, you're arguing my total, but I clearly stated that the number doesn't matter (200,000 is an estimate/example). Change it to 100,000 or 400,000, and you'll still get the same percentages and ratios at the end.

Two things come to mind. First, what does one week matter out of 52? I would consider it a sad state of affairs to be hoping so hard for a single week of HD DVD being ahead of Blu Ray. Reminds me of the media frenzy around that Texas high school that one a football game after over 15 season of nothing but losses.

Second, it struck me as strange that you listed "HD DVD had higher prices." Since when was that a good thing for HD DVD? Apparently, during this week, Blu Ray was the better value for the consumer. (At least that's how I read the numbers.)

You do make a good point that more money was made by the HD DVD studios for the week, but that's to be expected anytime someone runs a big sale. It will be interesting to see what the sales figures look like next week. Frequently after a big sale, you find a drop in sales for the following period. People "stocked up" during the sale, and don't usually feel the need to buy anything for a while. That would be interesting if the numbers are also as close next week.

But, again, in the long run, it's the YTD figures that matter. 2007 went to Blu Ray by a 2:1 margin. Maybe HD DVD can find some momentum this holiday season to make 2008 look more even.

Well your figures will be off from the start because you have no HDDVD BOGO
numbers. Since there were multiple posts about HDDVD owners having circuity city give them BOGO on HDDVD titles as well. The entire sales section is rendered useless, and since they WERE gettin BOGO then 200,000 units sold CANNOT= 200,000 customers, which was laughable to start with.

Please, not this nonsense.

First off, you take only CC into the equation.
Then, you take the particular stores with the error within CC into the equation.
Then, you take customers who bought more than one HD DVD into that specific 2-day window when the computer error was in place at the CC's this happened to.

You are talking a VERY small amount of people. Obviously there is going to be a bunch of people talking about it on forums, that's what they do. Quit using this massive "BOGO" as a crutch.

Two things come to mind. First, what does one week matter out of 52? I would consider it a sad state of affairs to be hoping so hard for a single week of HD DVD being ahead of Blu Ray. Reminds me of the media frenzy around that Texas high school that one a football game after over 15 season of nothing but losses.

...

But, again, in the long run, it's the YTD figures that matter. 2007 went to Blu Ray by a 2:1 margin. Maybe HD DVD can find some momentum this holiday season to make 2008 look more even.

I never said otherwise. I was simply calculating data based on estimates for this week (unique from previous weeks due to the big D&D title, and the massive B1G1 sale).

but, if we were to go back to January, and calculate the data (knowing how many B1G1 sales happened, and how many units were sold because of it), you'd probably see (like I've shown in this thread), that there are more HD DVD customers actively purchasing titles, no matter the cost, than BD customers.

Paramount said 180,000 Transformers were sold. Nielson doesn't agree, only because they don't track Wal-Mart (or Amazon if I'm correct), among other 'minor' retailers.

Also, you're arguing my total, but I clearly stated that the number doesn't matter (200,000 is an estimate/example). Change it to 100,000 or 400,000, and you'll still get the same percentages and ratios at the end.

Your not, they count Amazon. The beer I put in the Freezer is cold, so I have no more use for this flawed thread. Start working on the one for when Shrek 3 gets owned.:cool:

I have notice one major thing on this thread and being fairly new here, I can't help but to notice that it is the bluray fans that call your numbers BS/meaningless/wrong. Why is that? You gave fair estimates and a good bit of leeway for BD. Your numbers seems fairly common sense-like.

Bringing up the minute glitch from CC on the B1G1 deal they did is really reaching. Why is it that the BD side cannot stand it if HD DVD was to win one week, out of 42? Would that be signaling an end? Sheesh, why so paranoid?

I never said otherwise. I was simply calculating data based on estimates for this week (unique from previous weeks due to the big D&D title, and the massive B1G1 sale).

but, if we were to go back to January, and calculate the data (knowing how many B1G1 sales happened, and how many units were sold because of it), you'd probably see (like I've shown in this thread), that there are more HD DVD customers actively purchasing titles, no matter the cost, than BD customers.

Impossible. Didn't you see it was 51:49 this week? That means the war is over. Profit means nothing, penetration means nothing, attach rates mean nothing.

Now bitrate, that means something.

You gave fair estimates and a good bit of leeway for BD.

I probably gave WAY too much leeway to BD.

I suggested that:
Only 50% of BDs units sold were B1G1.
Each customer that utilized the B1G1, only got ONE set of discs (this raises the estimated 'BD' userbase).

Personally (separate from my calculations), I think that a good 70 - 80% of the BD units sold were B1G1, and most customers picked up 4 - 10 titles. But, if that's true, that makes BD's numbers even worse for the week!

If one retailer could offer:
- # of B1G1 BD sold
- # of B1G1 BD transactions
- # of B1G1 HD sold
- # of B1G1 HD transactions
- # of BD units sold
- # of HD units sold
I'd be in heaven! I could show some pretty awesome comparisons with that info. But alas, my estimates will have to be good enough... ;)

If these numbers are remotely close, shouldn't we all be happy that we represented $8 million dollars in revenue? Why do you guys think we are so insignificant that that money is not at least noticeable to the studios for continued enthusiasm in the sales potential.

If one retailer could offer:
- # of B1G1 BD sold
- # of B1G1 BD transactions
- # of B1G1 HD sold
- # of B1G1 HD transactions
- # of BD units sold
- # of HD units sold
I'd be in heaven! I could show some pretty awesome comparisons with that info. But alas, my estimates will have to be good enough... ;)

I don't even know why people are talking about HD DVD Bogo..I was looking everywhere and I couldn't find it. The only place I heard about few people getting them was Circuit City and that's if you got lucky to "scam" them.

The number of sold HD DVD discs like that has to be minascule, unlike REAL BOGO sale from BDA that was everywhere, BB, Amazon, CC and other B&M stores too.

I think that Blu-Ray got completely WIPED out and by only 1 HD DVD title. Talk about strength. As I said, it's pretty a sad state of things for a format when they have to massively give away discs in order to show number of sales ADVANTAGE. :) Absolutely hilarious.

Well I guess we can laugh, especially since if BDA loses the sales numbers talking point, they really don't have anything else to offer. Pretty much all other things they might want to hype up have been already either debunked by reputable sources and experts. The HD DVD offers everything better, except the size and the TL is looking to shut that hole tight too.

I guess it's understandable why Blus were in such panic to counter HD DVD mass effect. Of course, unfortunately for them, they didn't fool anyone. Everyone now knows what's going on and what power HD DVD really has and with $198 HD DVD players at Walmart, EEEEK it's not gonna be happy Christmas for Blus.

What would be hilarious is if some of the Transformers sales this week and the residual sales tail crosses into the next Nielsen reporting period and HD DVD falls just short this week but wins outright NEXT WEEK.

Then Blu-ray loses the talking point anyway and HD DVD can brag of closing the month of Oct sales gap as well.

What would be hilarious is if some of the Transformers sales this week and the residual sales tail crosses into the next Nielsen reporting period and HD DVD falls just short this week but wins outright NEXT WEEK.

Then Blu-ray loses the talking point anyway and HD DVD can brag of closing the month of Oct sales gap as well.

Well let's look at it this way.. it is actually highly likely. People who buy $198 HD DVD players at Walmart will most likely also buy Transformers.

So what will happen is that HD DVD might very well kick some butt as there will be no BOGO sale to save their behinds.

Last week gets summed up like this. Tranformers destroyed everything in it's path selling more than all other HD DVDs and almost as many as all BDs combined. The fact that this is true is a really bad thing for HDM. I hope the studios other than Sony will have patience with this stuff and understand that this isn't 1998.

Next week that will be true of Spiderman 3.

I think the OP did a great job on putting these numbers together. Even with a +/- of 10%, HD DVD revenues were better than BDs because of the B1G1. Was it worth it to BD to lose $$ to show a slaes lead? I hope the BD studios are happy...


.... just my 2.825 cents worth

Stew - didn't you know? . . BD is all about losing money!:D

And we ain't talking millions . . . no no . . . we are talking BILLIONS.

Stew - didn't you know? . . BD is all about losing money!:D

And we ain't talking millions . . . no no . . . we are talking BILLIONS.

Come on. BD is losing no more money than HD DVD. The PS3 is taking a beating, but is a subject way bigger than HDM.

Come on. BD is losing no more money than HD DVD. The PS3 is taking a beating, but is a subject way bigger than HDM.

But the PS3 IS BD. And BOGO sales only reduce a studios profits.

No more seperating the PS3 - all are counted. Sony wants to use it as a BD player - no problem.

The losses of BD are in the BILLIONS. That is a fact.

I think your post has waaay too many assumptions

1) HDDVD did have a sale (IE outposts 2/27 HDDVD, and CC B1G1)
2) Not all HDDVDs are $25
3) Some stores offer Free HDDVDs with player purchase etc.

That being said, I think HDDVD software probably made more money this week than BD. But thats not much more than a guess.

I think your post has waaay too many assumptions

1) HDDVD did have a sale (IE outposts 2/27 HDDVD, and CC B1G1)
the CC sale was an error that lasted 2 days at a handful of stores, and most customers knew nothing about it. It's already been mentioned, and it probably counts for a couple hundred items sold, if that.
2) Not all HDDVDs are $25
which is why I clearly stated that $25 is a fair average.
3) Some stores offer Free HDDVDs with player purchase etc.
your point being? Unless those discs are scanned in at the point-of-sale, they don't count toward any sales data whatsoever.
That being said, I think HDDVD software probably made more money this week than BD. But thats not much more than a guess.
I guarantee that they did. ;)

I never said otherwise. I was simply calculating data based on estimates for this week (unique from previous weeks due to the big D&D title, and the massive B1G1 sale).

but, if we were to go back to January, and calculate the data (knowing how many B1G1 sales happened, and how many units were sold because of it), you'd probably see (like I've shown in this thread), that there are more HD DVD customers actively purchasing titles, no matter the cost, than BD customers.
I'm not sure I agree with your numbers being stretched to show more buying of HD DVD YTD. There haven't been that many more BD sales to HD DVD. Smells like another attempt to say attach rate means a lot when it doesn't.

LD owners had the biggest libraries of anyone, but that didn't mean much with their smaller numbers. I sort of see HD DVD in the same boat right now.

There haven't been that many more BD sales to HD DVD.

I disagree on that point. As someone who's always watching for good sales, I'd say that BD has had a LOT more sales (B1G1, 50% off, B2G1, etc.) than HD at this point. Even Amazon has only had one B2G1 sale for HD.

All the BDA has ever down is smoke and mirrors marketing. This bogus 51:49 ''victory'' remains consistent with the strategies they've used since the start of this war.

I'm not sure I agree with your numbers being stretched to show more buying of HD DVD YTD. There haven't been that many more BD sales to HD DVD. Smells like another attempt to say attach rate means a lot when it doesn't.

LD owners had the biggest libraries of anyone, but that didn't mean much with their smaller numbers. I sort of see HD DVD in the same boat right now.

What ever boat HD DVD is in . . . so is BD. If you call HD DVD a niche - so is BD.

All the BDA has ever down is smoke and mirrors marketing. This bogus 51:49 ''victory'' remains consistent with the strategies they've used since the start of this war.

But it is a great "tell" for the HD DVD PG. They now know what BD is going to do in the future. They can combat this if they so choose.

The guy who acts first reveals his "hand" first. The HD DVD PG is very good about keeping their cards close to the vest.

In terms of profitability, how should we apportion the $150 million per exclusive Paramount release? It seems to me that Disney spends less on the B1G1 for a temporary period than Toshiba spent to get Transformers exlcusive.

Revenue-wise perhaps HD-DVD was ahead this week, but I doubt so in profitability. Paramount would have been stupid not to take that much cash, since neither side will make that much profit for a few years.

I think your post has waaay too many assumptions

1) HDDVD did have a sale (IE outposts 2/27 HDDVD, and CC B1G1)
2) Not all HDDVDs are $25
3) Some stores offer Free HDDVDs with player purchase etc.

That being said, I think HDDVD software probably made more money this week than BD. But thats not much more than a guess.

But the PS3 IS BD. And BOGO sales only reduce a studios profits.

No more seperating the PS3 - all are counted. Sony wants to use it as a BD player - no problem.

The losses of BD are in the BILLIONS. That is a fact.Source Please!!!

Source Please!!!

You have to be kidding me right? You are aware that Sony has lost billions on the PS3?

Just do a google search. - They just lost another $850 million in Q3.

This is old news Prince.

In terms of profitability, how should we apportion the $150 million per exclusive Paramount release? It seems to me that Disney spends less on the B1G1 for a temporary period than Toshiba spent to get Transformers exlcusive.

Revenue-wise perhaps HD-DVD was ahead this week, but I doubt so in profitability. Paramount would have been stupid not to take that much cash, since neither side will make that much profit for a few years.

this post (and poster) should be removed.

Why does $150 million have to be brought into every topic?
We can not go into the fine details regarding profits, which is why I stuck to gross sales.

Seems like circular logic to me...

If only units matter, than Disney shouldn't be criticized for B1G1. Also, not all studios participated so the 50% number is probably high. (Only Disney I think?)

If B1G1 is not fair play how can the Paramount buy-out be ignored. Does anyone think that Transformers HD-DVD would outsell Transformers Blu-Ray?

You shouldn't get it both ways.

this post (and poster) should be removed.

Why does $150 million have to be brought into every topic?
We can not go into the fine details regarding profits, which is why I stuck to gross sales.


No - leave the $150 million in!

Name me a studio . . . today . . that has made $150 million in the HDM marketplace and I will kiss your behind in Macy's window!

Seems like circular logic to me...

If only units matter, than Disney shouldn't be criticized for B1G1.
what are you talking about? who said only units matter (aside from the BDA, of course)
Also, not all studios participated so the 50% number is probably high. (Only Disney I think?)
Many retailers were selling more than just disney at B1G1.
If B1G1 is not fair play
who said it wasn't "Fair play"? I counted it in my numbers. Pay attention please.
how can the Paramount buy-out be ignored. Does anyone think that Transformers HD-DVD would outsell Transformers Blu-Ray?
That's not what this is about at all. You have provided nothing to this thread. Way to go.

I'm officially confused.

Which stats matter to the original poster?
1. Unit Sales
2. Revenue
3. Margin

Seems like you're focused on revenue at the expense of the other two. My point is BD led in #1 (unit sales) and depending on how you account for the money paid for this exclusive title, without which this week is like 4 or 5:1, BD most likely leads #3.

Breakdown on the $150M (reportedly over 18 months = 78 weeks = ~$2M / week):
If we apportion that $2M to the roughly 115M Transformers sold for this week (only Paramount exclusive I think) then you're looking at close to $17 per copy paid. That's more than what you claim Blu-ray spends for B1G1.

Just trying to understand what catagories we should focus on here...

But it is a great "tell" for the HD DVD PG. They now know what BD is going to do in the future. They can combat this if they so choose.

The guy who acts first reveals his "hand" first. The HD DVD PG is very good about keeping their cards close to the vest.

That's a good point! The HDDVD PRG are not as vocal but they get things done. The BDA is full of crap and I expect them to use this 51:49 ''victory'' to claim HDDVD is dead for the 100th time.:rolleyes:

this post (and poster) should be removed.

Why does $150 million have to be brought into every topic?
We can not go into the fine details regarding profits, which is why I stuck to gross sales.

I'm getting tired of this $150 million payout baloney. Even if there was a payout, it was well worth it. HD DVD were on the ropes before August 20th. That alleged payout has brought major attention to the format, has helped increase sales of HDDVD players. First day sales of Transformers do not prove the payout failed nor do first week sales. The exclusivity of Transformers will continue to benefit HDDVD throughout the holidays. It can be bundled with the HD A2 on Black Friday, the possibilities are endless. So if there was a payout it was worth every dime. And don't get me started about Disney who have obviously received ''incentives'' from Sony.

The only thing I take away from the Nielsen results is that Paramount embroidered the truth about their 190,000 sold-to-customers figure on Transformers HD DVD, because it's improbable that Blu-ray would have sold 200,000+ discs in a single week with no major releases, even with a BOGO offer on a number of titles. As such, I think reality sets in and suggests that Paramount did what Sony did with Casino Royale: that is, quoted the number they shipped to retailers, rather than the actual sell-through.

Something has to be wrong with the numbers. Three BestBuys in my area has given HD DVD three times as much shelf space as Bluray. Can others confirm this in other areas? Why would BB stock more when they are selling less?

The only thing I take away from the Nielsen results is that Paramount embroidered the truth about their 190,000 sold-to-customers figure on Transformers HD DVD, because it's improbable that Blu-ray would have sold 200,000+ discs in a single week with no major releases, even with a BOGO offer on a number of titles. As such, I think reality sets in and suggests that Paramount did what Sony did with Casino Royale: that is, quoted the number they shipped to retailers, rather than the actual sell-through.

I do agree. Seems Paramount tried to use some BDA FUD and guess what? . . . it wasn't believed by the informed.

But what about the uninformed? You know . . the people who buy an HDTV - hook up SD to it and think they are watching HD because . . .heck! . . . It IS an HDTV!;)

The fact is, no one except 'people on teh interwebz' actually would've gave a **** if HD-DVD had've won the week. No executive of a retailer would've been like 'holy hell that HD-DVD thingy is a GOLDMINE!' and no studio exec was going to be crying themselves to sleep 'oh no - we made the wrong choice!'

Consistent performance matters more than the incredibly arbitrary figure of weekly sales. Why not measure daily sales? I'm damn sure that HD-DVD would've topped Blu-ray on the 16th, hell it probably went 2:1. Maybe 3:1 in revenue. Victory!

Good post, just looking at it the way the studios would... by the dollars, not the number of discs.

The studios know what is really going on, but the BDA's only hope (as ever) seems to be in convincing the public that BD is "winning" so that they might rally behind BD and/or shy completely away from HD DVD.

By the numbers, HD DVD is going to kill them. The BD business model is broken.

I'm going to update my second post with some pure math equations, based on three variables:
HD DVD units sold = w
Percentage of B1G1 units sold = y
Average price of HDM = z

Just give me some time...

I am guessing HMM would not have put the YTD and SI numbers since they may have moved in favor of HD DVD. I also noticed that they made zero mention of the BOGO across the board promo as a factor in sales. Convenient :)

First Post has been updated with Downloadable Calculator and Real Math Equations

check them out! There's still a few things I could add to the calculator, but I'll do that in the future. Feedback is welcome, of course :)

The thing is, Sony and the BDA should be very happy that there is time to still pullout before she gets pregnant and they have to raise a kid they dont want.

First Post has been updated with Downloadable Calculator and Real Math Equations

check them out! There's still a few things I could add to the calculator, but I'll do that in the future. Feedback is welcome, of course :)

Here's my take on market share:

The BDA put out a figure earlier this year claiming an edge in standalone player market share based on revenue rather than units; now all of a sudden media market share - which the weekly ratios actually represent - is being redefined as revenue based by the same folk that panned that prior claim?

It's pointless IMO to go through these contortions in order to prove a point that will be forgotten two weeks from now anyway, that point being: people spent more on HD for the week. Who cares? Studios? Disney is a studio, and they're the ones that green-lighted this whole thing, so obviously they're not concerned with the lost revenue in this instance. Not to mention, every other week of the year, BD has had consumers "spend" more on it than HD DVD.

people spent more on HD for the week. Who cares? Studios?
damn right they care.
Disney is a studio, and they're the ones that green-lighted this whole thing, so obviously they're not concerned with the lost revenue in this instance.
That's fine, but the other studios take notice of these things. They're not all going to start selling their discs at 50% off so they can temporarily boost the numbers for a week.
Not to mention, every other week of the year, BD has had consumers "spend" more on it than HD DVD.
My point is that is nearly impossible to tell because we have no idea how many B1G1 sales have happened in the year.

Also, it's very significant that there were more customers who bought HD DVD discs than customers who bought Blu Ray, whether they took advantage of the fire sale or not. If only 7% of the total Blu Ray sales for the week ending 10/21 were B1G1, then Blu Ray could potentially have more customers (assuming each customer only bought one pair of discs).

Nice job SomethingMore. It is good to see some science on the forum.

For the detractors; he built a model to calculate the sales, if you don't like his assumptions change the variables or the formulas to meet your assumptions. Or better yet build your own mathmatical model - and stop whining.

Do you think that 50% of the discs sold isn't enough? Too many?
+ / - 10%... it's still a win for HD DVD.

There is no way i would totally believe the Nielsen numbers anyway (i would need to know: who is excluded, reporting period, accuracy, margin of error, reporting peculiarities - when does an online sale count for this). If i cared about these numbers, should i even bother to buy a disc if it won't be counted at Fred Meyer (big in WA/OR owned by Kroger - don't know if counted or not), Wal-Mart, FYE (again don't know)? i believe the apparent win for Blu-Ray was manufactured by a big promotion. The revenue angle is different and a good guess. At these alleged pecentages, just assume that in terms of unit sales it was a dead heat.

However, 50% is too high a number to use. By definition, if every disc was purchased in a BOGO sale that would be the percentage. It seemed to me that probably 20-25% of Blu-Ray disc sales since inception would have been discounted in some way (no proof though, obviously). i think the number you should use for the percentages regarding the BOGO is 35% (conservative, somebody would have bought a disc without the sale). Are you using MSRP or estimating unit price?

That's fine, but the other studios take notice of these things. They're not all going to start selling their discs at 50% off so they can temporarily boost the numbers for a week.

Take notice of what things? The problem here, is that you're taking HD DVD's achievements of last week as somehow going beyond the single film that drove it all: Transformers. Do you think Universal or Warner benefited at all? Or even Paramount beyond that one title? Let's check the numbers to find out. And do you honestly feel that Paramount felt they couldn't have replicated that level of success on Blu-ray? Indeed, we all know that it would have sold a much greater amount on BD in fact.

So if what you're saying is that studios are taking notice, I'll point out to you that the only thing there even *is* to take notice of, is that blockbuster titles sell well and above what the average titles do. And that is all. Last week's numbers weren't a win for HD DVD the format, they were a win for Transformers the movie, and I don't think studios are going to read into it anymore than that.

Also, it's very significant that there were more customers who bought HD DVD discs than customers who bought Blu Ray, whether they took advantage of the fire sale or not. If only 7% of the total Blu Ray sales for the week ending 10/21 were B1G1, then Blu Ray could potentially have more customers (assuming each customer only bought one pair of discs).

Again, it was consumers who bought Transformers; this is a completely separate idea than saying 'HD DVD.' For example, take that movie out of last weeks numbers, and where would HD DVD have been? Yet that's the implication you're making by generalizing and removing specific title from the list of considerations, and reducing it to "full price" vs "BOGO."

To take a blockbuster release and use a reductionist argument to suddenly generalize the entirety of the format war is, well... it's poor logic. Whether HD DVD had more customers or not - and certainly for that week they did - I don't think any studio on either side is deluded into thinking it had anything to do with anything other than the fact that this singular hit film was format exclusive.

More HD people went out and bought a movie than BD people did last week. That is a fact.

And another fact . . . there are 6X more BD people than HD people.

Quetion. Did more Blu-Ray customers buy 300 the first week of its release than HD Dvd customers buy Transformers the first week of its release?

Quetion. Did more Blu-Ray customers buy 300 the first week of its release than HD Dvd customers buy Transformers the first week of its release?

You know it, and according to SomethingMore, "...the other studios take notice of these things."

Quetion. Did more Blu-Ray customers buy 300 the first week of its release than HD Dvd customers buy Transformers the first week of its release?

I'm sure there are numbers out there showing it both ways. Point is, they both did well. I do recall data showing 300 sold more on BD than HD DVD. I suspect Transformers would have been the same way if it were out on both.

Something has to be wrong with the numbers. Three BestBuys in my area has given HD DVD three times as much shelf space as Bluray. Can others confirm this in other areas? Why would BB stock more when they are selling less?
I noticed yesterday when I was at the BestBuy I goto. They have had all along a 6 section row for HDM for months, 3 for HD DVD and 3 for Blu-Ray. Now they only have 3 sections, 2 for HD DVD and 1 for Blu-Ray. I guess this is a sign (we all know this) HDM is not doing so hot as a whole. but at this location, HD DVD must be selling better then Blu-Ray.

Quetion. Did more Blu-Ray customers buy 300 the first week of its release than HD Dvd customers buy Transformers the first week of its release?

Who does the movie 300 with all the CGI and violence appeal to more? The pimply faced PS3 crowd or the much more mature HDDVD audience? Transformers would have likely sold better on Bluray as well, too bad we'll never find out. Too bad for BD fanatics, I mean.:p

Decent analysis. Do you think studios care more about an $8 higher average selling price or about selling +1 more disk then the next guy?

Please don't respond to my rhetorical questions.

Decent analysis. Do you think studios care more about an $8 higher average selling price or about selling +1 more disk then the next guy?

Please don't respond to my rhetorical questions.

Oh but I must.

Some studios care very much about their bottom line.

Some studios care about bragging rights and headlines/blogs.

And we know which studios fall into which catagory.;)

And we know which studios fall into which catagory.;)
Indeed.

In addition, its recently been discovered that BR studios have an affiliation with the devil and HD-DVD studios carry the torch of light and justice.

Indeed.

In addition, its recently been discovered that BR studios have an affiliation with the devil and HD-DVD studios carry the torch of light and justice.

Is that right?

Link?:D

Who does the movie 300 with all the CGI and violence appeal to more? The pimply faced PS3 crowd or the much more mature HDDVD audience? Transformers would have likely sold better on Bluray as well, too bad we'll never find out. Too bad for BD fanatics, I mean.:p


*cough* Xbox 360 AO... :rolleyes:


Condescending much?

This is a sales chart that comes from sirDVD. Does that look like 51/49?

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/sales-chart-782547.jpg

When Blu-Ray claims higher revenues on player sales HD-DVD complains penetration is what matters, not price (of course excluding PS3 owners like myself). Now some HD-DVD supporters want to claim the win by revenue not units.

Both sides cook the books to make their camp look the best, but winning by adjusted for revenue is not the win HD-DVD was going for, they wanted to have at least one by-units win in 2007 and they fell short. Blu-Ray will be able to say the sold more units every week in 2007.

I still give Blu-Ray a 4:1 edge on winning in the end over HD-DVD. If Transfomers had made the week 40:60 I would have revised that estimate to only 2:1 maybe even 1:1. Before the Paramount deal I would have given 10:1. It now comes down to player sales in December. Player sales in November won't be a high enough number to effect the installed base much. If Blu-Ray can start getting 75:25 or better between Thanksgiving and Christmas it will be hard to move those HD-DVD boxes even at a sub-$200 price point.

Of course if the PS3 doesn't sell well this Christmas that doesn't bode well for Blu-Ray either. Sadly there still is a lot of uncertainty in this competition. HD-DVD can't get traction because it's seen in second place, Blu-Ray can't get traction because there is a cheaper alternative.

Why the endless comparisons between the sides?

BD doesn't need to lose for HD DVD to exist. HD DVD only needs to show the studios that it's a viable business.

Thus the only question that really mattered that week is whether the sale of Transformers on HD DVD was a success. By the press release, I have to assume the answer (from Paramount's view) is a resounding yes.

This is a sales chart that comes from sirDVD. Does that look like 51/49?

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/sales-chart-782547.jpg

It would if you added more than nine Blue-Rays to the total.:rolleyes:

It would if you added more than nine Blue-Rays to the total.:rolleyes:

So HD DVD only sold 4 titles?:rolleyes:

So HD DVD only sold 4 titles?:rolleyes:

That is not the point and you know it. If you listed every title from both formats on that chart you would get...51:49.:rolleyes:

So HD DVD only sold 4 titles?:rolleyes:

Why are you rolling your eyes? He answered your question even though it was a retarded question to begin with.

So the chart shows the top sellers of each format?

So the chart shows the top sellers of each format?

wtf??? you posted the chart, shouldn't YOU know what it's trying to show? Why don't you go back to the source where you lifted the image from and find out?

wtf??? you posted the chart, shouldn't YOU know what it's trying to show?

As a matter of fact . . . I don't know. There is no explaination. Here is the title and link to the chart:

http://www.sirdvd.com/

New sales chart for all the HDM sold this week

You tell me.

If the title is correct then it is a chart of ALL the HDM movies sold last week. So is it correct?

This is a sales chart that comes from sirDVD. Does that look like 51/49?

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/sales-chart-782547.jpg

Your question

It would if you added more than nine Blue-Rays to the total.:rolleyes:

My answer

So HD DVD only sold 4 titles?:rolleyes:

Attempted evasion #1

That is not the point and you know it. If you listed every title from both formats on that chart you would get...51:49.:rolleyes:

Clarification of my answer if you did not understand it.:)

So the chart shows the top sellers of each format?

Attempted evasion #2

So the chart shows the top sellers of each format?

Yes, the source for that chart was the Neilsen VideoScan data which, of course, is limited to only the titles published.

Rob:

Please see my post before yours concerning the chart and what it is supposed to represent

OBTW - no attempts at evasion - just a bit of sarcastic humor.

Rob:

Please see my post before yours concerning the chart and what it is supposed to represent

OBTW - no attempts at evasion - just a bit of sarcastic humor.

On both sides:D

OK - I see what happened. One of the AVS members created that chart. I thought it was something else. I did not see that chart here at AVS - only at SirDVD.

OK YA'LL. BLUE-RAY IS GOING IN THE TRASH, AND WE PICK HD (:
kthanks. let's stop this foolishness.

p.s. - i'm a 15 year old girl, (this is my father's screenname), and i personally think this is retarded. we could all already be watching these fabulous videos/movies if you'd all agree on something. say one of the products fails - you buy the other one. it's not like things haven't been ruined in the past. we need to just take the risk and pick one. come on, we have more important things like global warming, the war, and the upcoming presidential election to be fighting about then THIS. jeez. you all need to stop being stubborn in your own ways and just pick!

Sad day. This forum has gone to complete poop. (Well, it went to poop 2 years ago, but now it's just a joke.)

We get it.(It's getting dizzy in here with all the different angles to justify the loss)
Transformers got more popular votes/sales but lost the electorial Neilson votes/sales.
Just face it that it did not get the votes/sales required to be number 1 in sales this week.
*sheesh*

*cough* Xbox 360 AO... :rolleyes:


Condescending much?

And how many XBox AOs are there compared to PS3s? Get Real!

This is way too much analysis for a single week. Blockbusters in both formats sell well. Blu-Ray is generally selling more than HD-DVD. Big sales move product. The trends are uncertain but the picture will be far clearer by Q1 2008.

Dumbest thread EVER.

I think you forgot to mention the $150 million Paramount paid to get Transformers as a exclusive. Without that $150 it would've been 75-25 again.

I'd like to see your analysis when Spiderman 3 gets released and HDDVD gets stomped 99 - 1.

Dumbest thread EVER.

I think you forgot to mention the $150 million Paramount paid to get Transformers as a exclusive. Without that $150 it would've been 75-25 again.

I'd like to see your analysis when Spiderman 3 gets released and HDDVD gets stomped 99 - 1.

Interesting how you have absolutely no problem with the BOGO or the $399 PS3 that Sony loses hundreds of bucks on, but continue to belittle Toshiba for subsidizing their players (in the other thread).

Give up with the Paramount thing, they left and they ain't coming back! All the whining in the world won't make a shred of difference.:rolleyes:

DiD anyone ever answer the question as to why the Nielsen numbers were announced . . . for the first time BTW . . one day early?

I'd like to see your analysis when Spiderman 3 gets released and HDDVD gets stomped 99 - 1.

I don't think Spiderman 3 is going to do as well as Transformers. I don't know anyone that liked the movie, and I certainly have no plans to buy it.

I don't think Spiderman 3 is going to do as well as Transformers. I don't know anyone that liked the movie, and I certainly have no plans to buy it.

Sider-Man 3: $890,983,299

Transformers: $701,935,735

Obviously a few more people liked it compared to Transformers since it made more at the box office.

Sider-Man 3: $890,983,299

Transformers: $701,935,735

Obviously a few more people liked it compared to Transformers since it made more at the box office.

Of course it will do well for sales.

I still agree it was one of those movies everyone rushed to see at the theatre and then left saying "It wasn't that good."

Their money had already been spent to the tune of $890mi.

It won't do as well on disc as it did in the theatre because those that did see it (and aren't dire hard SM fans) will not re-buy it.

Transformers was a movie many wanted to own and watch over and over.

I'm in no way saying SM3 is going to bomb. But lets face it, it's not going to beat Transformers DVD to DVD. (It will do well on BD but not as well on DVD)

For some reason, I don't think the Studio's really care. Transformers beat its closest competition by a factor of more than 10:1, even with the BOGO.

I think the only people that care about this are the format fans on either side. Your average consumers is going to go and see that Transformers is only available on HD DVD. Period. They're not going to research Neilsen Numbers. :rolleyes:

This is just a 'neener neener' point. When HD DVD takes the lead for a week, the BDA loses a huge talking point -- and I imagine the 'neener neener' will sadly go in the other direction and there will be all sorts of spin and justification, etc.

imo, whatever they spent to subsidize the BOGO was worth it to them for their marketing. They can say they've won every week this year and leave out the details regarding how close it got (though I'm sure they'll mention the more wide-ranged weekly ratios).

At the end of the day, it's pretty clear that this release brought some Blu-ray Supporters into the realm of Neutrality which would lead to additional HD DVD sales. The BOGO was just a sale ... if they want to give away discs at POS to keep their lead, I'm sure the HD DVD PRG will happily accept as Studio's don't want their product minimalized like that on a recurring basis.

We can say Blu-ray won or HD DVD won all we want ... it's irrelvent. The point is that Studios are looking at more than just these ratios. I think it's pretty clear what generated more revenue -- and these are the things that are important.

As I've asked many times over: would you rather sell 200k of something at a profit, or 400k of something at a loss? *shrug*

And how many XBox AOs are there compared to PS3s? Get Real!

Me get real?

Did you not see the irony in your post?

Labeling the mature crowd as HD DVD owners, implying you're apart of them, and then making a stereotypical condescending comment about the PS3 demographic when a large portion of these forums are PS3 owners that don't even fit that category. Not to even mention some of the most rash HD DVD supporters on this very forum are Xbox owners who I would label anything but 'mature'.

So please... get real yourself... :rolleyes:

Well, let's hope the mods see what I'm trying to accomplish...


Spinning a defeat into a win???:D

It's not spin if it is a fact that more customers were shopping for HD that week (and potentially any other week that BD had a firesa- err... B1G1 deal. :D

It's funny that so many people are trying to play down the math that I've done, yet only FIVE people have actually downloaded my formulas and calculator. For all you know, the formula is HD > BD. ;)

It's like a ball game...It doesn't matter how many hits, how many strike outs or how many magical catches you make all game long. If at the end of the game, you are 1 run short of your opponent, it is still a loss (unless, as you are trying to do, redefine what winning is)....................;)

Sorta like calling the winner of a ball game the one with the most hits, rather than the most runs...... SO, as close as it was, it was still a complete BD victory...but like baseball, there is always next time..........

A loss is a loss...that is why no one is checking the math. But nice work!

Spinning a defeat into a win???:D

Depends on who is determining if it was a win or a loss. For us here at AVS - BD won the week though just barely (nothing more than a fact)

On the other hand if I was Paramount - I clearly see a win - $$$$$$$$$$$$.

Can Disney, Fox and Sony say they same thing? I thought not.;)

You have to be kidding me right? You are aware that Sony has lost billions on the PS3?

Just do a google search. - They just lost another $850 million in Q3.

This is old news Prince.

You can not count the PS3 as a loss for the Blu-ray camp. While it may be the most prominent BD player it is still a game machine and is designed to take a loss of well over its first year of inception (even if the losses are greater than Sony may have wanted). Has the 360 even turned a profitable quarter (I thought I heard they did last quarter, but not sure). Microsoft was down almost $6 billion during the first year and half of XBOX360's life cycle and that didn't even include a HD drive.

Now back on topic. I have no doubt that HD DVD was more profitable in sales compared to Blu-ray this week, but I am still shocked that HD DVD could not pull out a unit sales win with Transformers plus the rest of the catalog being available. Even with a B1G1 special BR out sold one of the most anticipated releases of the year with essentially catalog titles only.

This holiday season should be pretty entertaining though with lots of software deals on the BRD side and great player prices on the HD DVD side. Hopefully BRD will find a way to drop their player prices after seeing Toshiba's price point, and HD DVD will throw some software deals out there to keep up with disc sales.

Sider-Man 3: $890,983,299

Transformers: $701,935,735

Obviously a few more people liked it compared to Transformers since it made more at the box office.

But, if you know your history, you'd know that sometimes big box office sales to do not translate into big home media sales. The opposite is sometimes true. I just don't think Spiderman 3 will sell as many copies on DVD and HDM as Transformers did.

Me get real?

Did you not see the irony in your post?

Labeling the mature crowd as HD DVD owners, implying you're apart of them, and then making a stereotypical condescending comment about the PS3 demographic when a large portion of these forums are PS3 owners that don't even fit that category. Not to even mention some of the most rash HD DVD supporters on this very forum are Xbox owners who I would label anything but 'mature'.

So please... get real yourself... :rolleyes:

I have a PS3 myself for BluRay playback. So I'm not claiming every PS3 owner is a 13 year old nitwit. But by and large the PS3 demographic consists of a younger audience, an audience that enjoys violent CGI like 300. Look at Planet Earth, it sold better on HDDVD. Can you imagine PS3 fanboys buying Planet Earth?

True, the XBox AO owners make up a percentage of the HDDVD audience but the PS3 probably represent 90% of the BluRay audience.

You can not count the PS3 as a loss for the Blu-ray camp. While it may be the most prominent BD player it is still a game machine and is designed to take a loss of well over its first year of inception (even if the losses are greater than Sony may have wanted). Has the 360 even turned a profitable quarter (I thought I heard they did last quarter, but not sure). Microsoft was down almost $6 billion during the first year and half of XBOX360's life cycle and that didn't even include a HD drive.

Now back on topic. I have no doubt that HD DVD was more profitable in sales compared to Blu-ray this week, but I am still shocked that HD DVD could not pull out a unit sales win with Transformers plus the rest of the catalog being available. Even with a B1G1 special BR out sold one of the most anticipated releases of the year with essentially catalog titles only.

This holiday season should be pretty entertaining though with lots of software deals on the BRD side and great player prices on the HD DVD side. Hopefully BRD will find a way to drop their player prices after seeing Toshiba's price point, and HD DVD will throw some software deals out there to keep up with disc sales.


If its a war of attrition that Sony wants to have with MS, lets face it, Sony will lose.:p

Interesting Statistics. It was obvious that HD DVD made more money during the week since the BD camp was giving discs away to skew the numbers. Either way, thanks for the effort you put into this, but I think you do have too much time on your hands :D

Sider-Man 3: $890,983,299

Transformers: $701,935,735

Obviously a few more people liked it compared to Transformers since it made more at the box office.

The majority of Spidey 3's gross came in the first week when anticipation was high. After that, the bottom fell out.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0413300/business
Weekend Gross
$52,585 (USA) (19 August 2007) (111 Screens)
$77,571 (USA) (12 August 2007) (151 Screens)
$127,439 (USA) (5 August 2007) (211 Screens)
$221,502 (USA) (29 July 2007) (286 Screens)
$315,483 (USA) (22 July 2007) (318 Screens)
$303,553 (USA) (8 July 2007) (310 Screens)
$602,153 (USA) (1 July 2007) (609 Screens)
$1,237,774 (USA) (24 June 2007) (1,031 Screens)
$2,505,151 (USA) (17 June 2007) (1,822 Screens)
$4,304,986 (USA) (10 June 2007) (2,570 Screens)
$7,578,055 (USA) (3 June 2007) (3,402 Screens)
$18,112,261 (USA) (27 May 2007) (3,723 Screens)
$29,022,026 (USA) (20 May 2007) (4,324 Screens)
$151,116,516 (USA) (6 May 2007) (4,252 Screens)

Notice the huge drop after 1st week. Notice very mediocre numbers after the 3rd week when word of mouth spread that the movie was a disappointment.

The majority of Spidey 3's gross came in the first week when anticipation was high. After that, the bottom fell out.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0413300/business
Weekend Gross
$52,585 (USA) (19 August 2007) (111 Screens)
$77,571 (USA) (12 August 2007) (151 Screens)
$127,439 (USA) (5 August 2007) (211 Screens)
$221,502 (USA) (29 July 2007) (286 Screens)
$315,483 (USA) (22 July 2007) (318 Screens)
$303,553 (USA) (8 July 2007) (310 Screens)
$602,153 (USA) (1 July 2007) (609 Screens)
$1,237,774 (USA) (24 June 2007) (1,031 Screens)
$2,505,151 (USA) (17 June 2007) (1,822 Screens)
$4,304,986 (USA) (10 June 2007) (2,570 Screens)
$7,578,055 (USA) (3 June 2007) (3,402 Screens)
$18,112,261 (USA) (27 May 2007) (3,723 Screens)
$29,022,026 (USA) (20 May 2007) (4,324 Screens)
$151,116,516 (USA) (6 May 2007) (4,252 Screens)

Notice the huge drop after 1st week. Notice very mediocre numbers after the 3rd week when word of mouth spread that the movie was a disappointment.

Interesting ... do you have the comparative numbers for Transformers?

EDIT: I think I found it?

$752,412 (USA) (14 October 2007) (360 Screens)
$933,617 (USA) (7 October 2007) (421 Screens)
$1,200,730 (USA) (30 September 2007) (509 Screens)
$1,436,280 (USA) (23 September 2007) (385 Screens)
$473,968 (USA) (16 September 2007) (467 Screens)
$605,328 (USA) (9 September 2007) (607 Screens)
$1,544,222 (USA) (2 September 2007) (937 Screens)
$1,148,876 (USA) (26 August 2007) (826 Screens)
$1,948,099 (USA) (19 August 2007) (1,206 Screens)
$3,236,060 (USA) (12 August 2007) (1,803 Screens)
$6,021,472 (USA) (5 August 2007) (2,419 Screens)
$11,643,129 (USA) (29 July 2007) (3,349 Screens)
$20,514,497 (USA) (22 July 2007) (3,762 Screens)
$70,502,384 (USA) (8 July 2007) (4,011 Screens)

It looks like the same drop-off? Except SM3 made an extra $80 million week-1.

And here is SM2:

Weekend Gross
$91,675 (USA) (14 November 2004) (148 Screens)
$125,903 (USA) (7 November 2004) (180 Screens)
$134,674 (USA) (31 October 2004) (205 Screens)
$204,816 (USA) (24 October 2004) (238 Screens)
$263,756 (USA) (17 October 2004) (246 Screens)
$345,666 (USA) (10 October 2004) (271 Screens)
$179,950 (USA) (3 October 2004) (182 Screens)
$290,512 (USA) (26 September 2004) (214 Screens)
$342,622 (USA) (19 September 2004) (261 Screens)
$573,618 (USA) (12 September 2004) (476 Screens)
$1,520,116 (USA) (5 September 2004) (807 Screens)
$1,574,837 (USA) (29 August 2004) (1,186 Screens)
$2,421,434 (USA) (22 August 2004) (1,343 Screens)
$3,512,027 (USA) (15 August 2004) (1,907 Screens)
$5,431,777 (USA) (8 August 2004) (2,564 Screens)
$8,613,693 (USA) (1 August 2004) (3,001 Screens)
$15,015,872 (USA) (25 July 2004) (3,753 Screens)
$24,775,450 (USA) (18 July 2004) (4,058 Screens)
$45,180,743 (USA) (11 July 2004) (4,166 Screens)
$115,817,364 (USA) (4 July 2004) (4,152 Screens)


So:
SM3 went to about 19% of Week 1 by Week 2
SM2 went to about 39% of Week 1 by Week 2
SM1 went to about 62% of Week 1 by Week 2
Transformers went to about 29% of Week 1 by Week 2

I dunno, with the sheer volume of Blu-ray players out there in the PS3, I can see where they could beat Transformers in Sales.

Now, for those that don't have SM1 or SM2, I see them buying the Boxset, but likely nothing at all (since they don't have 1 & 2 anyways).
So the question becomes: For those with SM1 and SM2 on DVD, do they double-dip or not? The answer to that question will determine how well the SM3 SKU sells.

The majority of Spidey 3's gross came in the first week when anticipation was high. After that, the bottom fell out.

Weekend Gross
$52,585 (USA) (19 August 2007) (111 Screens)
$77,571 (USA) (12 August 2007) (151 Screens)
$127,439 (USA) (5 August 2007) (211 Screens)
$221,502 (USA) (29 July 2007) (286 Screens)
$315,483 (USA) (22 July 2007) (318 Screens)
$303,553 (USA) (8 July 2007) (310 Screens)
$602,153 (USA) (1 July 2007) (609 Screens)
$1,237,774 (USA) (24 June 2007) (1,031 Screens)
$2,505,151 (USA) (17 June 2007) (1,822 Screens)
$4,304,986 (USA) (10 June 2007) (2,570 Screens)
$7,578,055 (USA) (3 June 2007) (3,402 Screens)
$18,112,261 (USA) (27 May 2007) (3,723 Screens)
$29,022,026 (USA) (20 May 2007) (4,324 Screens)
$151,116,516 (USA) (6 May 2007) (4,252 Screens)

Notice the huge drop after 1st week. Notice very mediocre numbers after the 3rd week when word of mouth spread that the movie was a disappointment.


I think you forgot to include Week 2 which was May 13th. Perhaps it premiered mid week and therefore counted as 2 weeks, but that would highly skew the numbers.

Interesting ... do you have the comparative numbers for Transformers?

EDIT: I think I found it?
Transformers
$752,412 (USA) (14 October 2007) (360 Screens)
$933,617 (USA) (7 October 2007) (421 Screens)
$1,200,730 (USA) (30 September 2007) (509 Screens)
$1,436,280 (USA) (23 September 2007) (385 Screens)
$473,968 (USA) (16 September 2007) (467 Screens)
$605,328 (USA) (9 September 2007) (607 Screens)
$1,544,222 (USA) (2 September 2007) (937 Screens)
$1,148,876 (USA) (26 August 2007) (826 Screens)
$1,948,099 (USA) (19 August 2007) (1,206 Screens)
$3,236,060 (USA) (12 August 2007) (1,803 Screens)
$6,021,472 (USA) (5 August 2007) (2,419 Screens)
$11,643,129 (USA) (29 July 2007) (3,349 Screens)
$20,514,497 (USA) (22 July 2007) (3,762 Screens)
$70,502,384 (USA) (8 July 2007) (4,011 Screens)

It looks like the same drop-off? Except SM3 made an extra $80 million week-1.

$52,585 (USA) (19 August 2007) (111 Screens)
$77,571 (USA) (12 August 2007) (151 Screens)
$127,439 (USA) (5 August 2007) (211 Screens)
$221,502 (USA) (29 July 2007) (286 Screens)
$315,483 (USA) (22 July 2007) (318 Screens)
$303,553 (USA) (8 July 2007) (310 Screens)
$602,153 (USA) (1 July 2007) (609 Screens)
$1,237,774 (USA) (24 June 2007) (1,031 Screens)
$2,505,151 (USA) (17 June 2007) (1,822 Screens)
$4,304,986 (USA) (10 June 2007) (2,570 Screens)
$7,578,055 (USA) (3 June 2007) (3,402 Screens)
$18,112,261 (USA) (27 May 2007) (3,723 Screens)
$29,022,026 (USA) (20 May 2007) (4,324 Screens)
$151,116,516 (USA) (6 May 2007) (4,252 Screens)

So:
SM3 went to about 19% of Week 1 by Week 2
SM2 went to about 39% of Week 1 by Week 2
SM1 went to about 62% of Week 1 by Week 2
Transformers went to about 29% of Week 1 by Week 2

I dunno, with the sheer volume of Blu-ray players out there in the PS3, I can see where they could beat Transformers in Sales.

Now, for those that don't have SM1 or SM2, I see them buying the Boxset, but likely nothing at all (since they don't have 1 & 2 anyways).
So the question becomes: For those with SM1 and SM2 on DVD, do they double-dip or not? The answer to that question will determine how well the SM3 SKU sells.

Compare the 13th week of Transformers that almost did $1 million and the 13th week of Spiderman 3 at $77 000. That is a huge difference and proof of Transformers greater appeal. Spiderman 3 relies heavily on it's massive 1st week sales due to hype, anticipation and a captive audience from the previous 2 films. Spidey also never managed to break $1 million again after the 7th week.

I choose the "somethingmore is crazy" option.

-Brian

Compare the 13th week of Transformers that almost did $1 million and the 13th week of Spiderman 3 at $77 000. That is a huge difference and proof of Transformers greater appeal. Spiderman 3 relies heavily on it's massive 1st week sales due to hype, anticipation and a captive audience from the previous 2 films. Spidey also never managed to break $1 million again after the 7th week.


I think you are really reading much more into this then you should. SM3 started the big wave of summer Blockbusters. It had far more competition in it's 13th week then Transformers.

That being said Transformers will blow away SM3 in sheer HD goodness.

It's funny that so many people are trying to play down the math that I've done, yet only FIVE people have actually downloaded my formulas and calculator. For all you know, the formula is HD > BD. ;)

Hmm...interesting spin. I'm still stunned that a highly-anticipated new release like Transformers couldn't knock off a bunch of months-old Disney catalog titles.

Of course, another plus you didn't consider was that customers like me bought a few more BD titles we normally wouldn't have (ie otherwise we would've bought them soon after it's release). Personally, I added 4 more movies that, for all intent and purposes, would've sat on the shelves unsold forever (to me). Thus, the point of sales is to move older releases and, in this case, it earn Disney another $50 from my pocket as opposed to $0. A definite win for Disney!

For sh!ts & giggles, I plugged in 2007 and SI numbers from Grubert's main thread (using 10% as B1G1 sold):

HDDVD Blu Ray
2007 Sales Ratio 35% 65%
units sold (Sept 30) 1,400,000 2,600,000
Gross Income $33,250,000 $61,750,000
Maximum Customers 1,330,000 2,470,000
HDDVD Blu Ray
SI Sales Ratio 39% 61%
units sold (Sept 30) 1,970,000 3,081,300
Gross Income $46,787,500 $73,180,400
Maximum Customers 1,871,500 2,927,200

Since inception with approx. 350 titles each side, by your standards, Blu Ray has won market share (units AND dollar share) and maximum customers. Most importantly, studios releasing in BD have earned $26,400,000 more in gross income!!! Which ultimately, is the bottom line to studios at this point.

So, instead of moving around the goalpost to define your "win" last week, perhaps you should stick to the Nielsen ratio so it doesn't look so bad for HD DVD.

Nice job SomethingMore. It is good to see some science on the forum.

For the detractors; he built a model to calculate the sales, if you don't like his assumptions change the variables or the formulas to meet your assumptions.

I think we have differing views on the definition of science.....

The only number that should matter to a studio is:

"If I put out this title in dual format, how much revenue will I make?"
"How about if I make this Blu exclusive"?
"How about HD DVD exclusive?".

Obviously, right now the numbers for 90% of releases will be highest at the top, lowest at the bottom. Of course, the type of release may skew the numbers, as young male gamers are the target audience for Blu right now, and they know it.

But wait -- did I say "revenue"? I should have said "profit". In that case, releasing on two formats cuts into profits, unless the same video encode is used for both (like Warner does). Releasing on BD50 cuts into profits if Sony stops subsidizing them. HDDVD clearly has the best profit possibilities, if there were enough players to overcome the PS3 advantage.

The studios know the numbers. Its a matter of what they want for the future, vs. what they can do for shareholders today. For today, format-neutral with identical encodes is the best profit choice. For the future, HDDVD would be best if it catches on. For Fox, they only care about the copy protection game so they will fight for Blu.

I would prefer all studios either go neutral, or exclusive the same way. An exclusive split, like now, isn't helping either format. Only the enthusiasts like us will pay for the cost of becoming format neutral consumers.

DiD anyone ever answer the question as to why the Nielsen numbers were announced . . . for the first time BTW . . one day early?

I am not completely sure, but my understanding is that large companies (and magazines) subscribe to the nielson reports which include detailed numbers of actual units sold. Nielson probably restricts magazines from publishing absolute-numbers, instead only allowing them to post relative sales volumes (hence everything specified as percentages).

The date HMM publishes the numbers in their magazine is well after the actual numbers are released to nielson subscribers. Other magazines who don't bother publishing the full numbers report probably just latched onto the overall percentages and got them out on the wire sooner than HMM did.

I think it's pretty clear what generated more revenue -- and these are the things that are important.


Nobody meaningful making decisions on the formats (ie. the studios and retailers) is looking at the revenue ratio of the biggest hit movie of the year up against a bunch of old catalog titles. The most meaningful number for decision makers is probably the YTD number, as it is most reflective of the overall trend.

They might use monthly average or even quarterly averages to try and spot more up-to-date trends, but even monthly averages are too short of a window to be meaningful, since new releases are fairly scarce and trendy in any single monthly period.

Using a single weeks numbers is like trying to predict the amount of rain you are going to get this year based on how much rain you got last week.

Can you make a chart for player-sales revenue too? After all, BD stand-alones have 44% of the unit-sales (YTD) and probably average at least 50% more in cost, so total revenue for the CE companies is substantially higher for BD. No wonder all the CE companies are backing BD.

Wow, just making up numbers (assumed numbers) and adding them up to convince yourself and others that hddvd won the week. Unless you are a retail expert and know the real numbers just face the facts that hddvd got beat even with Transformers.

How about:

SomethingMore may need a new hobby:D

Wow, just making up numbers (assumed numbers) and adding them up to convince yourself and others that hddvd won the week. Unless you are a retail expert and know the real numbers just face the facts that hddvd got beat even with Transformers.
Clearly, you didn't read the whole post, or even look at the attached formula, as I've already stated: I didn't make up the 49:51 sales ratio, and I didn't make up the B1G1 sale. :p

How about:

SomethingMore may need a new hobby
You are probably right... but I'm just starting to have fun! :)

On a different note,
Spiderman Trilogy is now #19 on Amazon.com! OMG!! BBQ!! The war is over! ;)

The majority of Spidey 3's gross came in the first week when anticipation was high. After that, the bottom fell out.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0413300/business
Weekend Gross
$52,585 (USA) (19 August 2007) (111 Screens)
$77,571 (USA) (12 August 2007) (151 Screens)
$127,439 (USA) (5 August 2007) (211 Screens)
$221,502 (USA) (29 July 2007) (286 Screens)
$315,483 (USA) (22 July 2007) (318 Screens)
$303,553 (USA) (8 July 2007) (310 Screens)
$602,153 (USA) (1 July 2007) (609 Screens)
$1,237,774 (USA) (24 June 2007) (1,031 Screens)
$2,505,151 (USA) (17 June 2007) (1,822 Screens)
$4,304,986 (USA) (10 June 2007) (2,570 Screens)
$7,578,055 (USA) (3 June 2007) (3,402 Screens)
$18,112,261 (USA) (27 May 2007) (3,723 Screens)
$29,022,026 (USA) (20 May 2007) (4,324 Screens)
$151,116,516 (USA) (6 May 2007) (4,252 Screens)

Notice the huge drop after 1st week. Notice very mediocre numbers after the 3rd week when word of mouth spread that the movie was a disappointment.

Weekend Gross
$752,412 (USA) (14 October 2007) (360 Screens)
$933,617 (USA) (7 October 2007) (421 Screens)
$1,200,730 (USA) (30 September 2007) (509 Screens)
$1,436,280 (USA) (23 September 2007) (385 Screens)
$473,968 (USA) (16 September 2007) (467 Screens)
$605,328 (USA) (9 September 2007) (607 Screens)
$1,544,222 (USA) (2 September 2007) (937 Screens)
$1,148,876 (USA) (26 August 2007) (826 Screens)
$1,948,099 (USA) (19 August 2007) (1,206 Screens)
$3,236,060 (USA) (12 August 2007) (1,803 Screens)
$6,021,472 (USA) (5 August 2007) (2,419 Screens)
$11,643,129 (USA) (29 July 2007) (3,349 Screens)
$20,514,497 (USA) (22 July 2007) (3,762 Screens)
$70,502,384 (USA) (8 July 2007) (4,011 Screens)

Wow. Please research next time.:p

By your definition it appears the bottom fell out of both.:rolleyes:

so is revenue generated the new metric for determining success of either format? If it is, does it apply only to discs or players as well?

Weekend Gross
$752,412 (USA) (14 October 2007) (360 Screens)
$933,617 (USA) (7 October 2007) (421 Screens)
$1,200,730 (USA) (30 September 2007) (509 Screens)
$1,436,280 (USA) (23 September 2007) (385 Screens)
$473,968 (USA) (16 September 2007) (467 Screens)
$605,328 (USA) (9 September 2007) (607 Screens)
$1,544,222 (USA) (2 September 2007) (937 Screens)
$1,148,876 (USA) (26 August 2007) (826 Screens)
$1,948,099 (USA) (19 August 2007) (1,206 Screens)
$3,236,060 (USA) (12 August 2007) (1,803 Screens)
$6,021,472 (USA) (5 August 2007) (2,419 Screens)
$11,643,129 (USA) (29 July 2007) (3,349 Screens)
$20,514,497 (USA) (22 July 2007) (3,762 Screens)
$70,502,384 (USA) (8 July 2007) (4,011 Screens)

Wow. Please research next time.:p

By your definition it appears the bottom fell out of both.:rolleyes:


Look at Week 8 and beyond for each movie and tell me Spiderman's numbers aren't pathetic in comparison. Transformers manages to shoot back up will Spidey3 sinks to oblivion.

Look at Week 8 and beyond for each movie and tell me Spiderman's numbers aren't pathetic in comparison. Transformers manages to shoot back up will Spidey3 sinks to oblivion.

Compare the 1st week SM3 doubled TF. 2nd week 9M, 3rd week 7.5M, 4th week 1.5M, 5 week 1M, 6th week .5M. It took seven weeks to match week-end box office #. You can argue till your Blu:D in the face. It doesn't change the fact that Spider-Man 3 made more money, and that's about the only gauge we have to guess DVD sales until we get numbers from the studio or Neilsen.

Compare the 1st week SM3 doubled TF. 2nd week 9M, 3rd week 7.5M, 4th week 1.5M, 5 week 1M, 6th week .5M. It took seven weeks to match week-end box office #. You can argue till your Blu:D in the face. It doesn't change the fact that Spider-Man 3 made more money, and that's about the only gauge we have to guess DVD sales until we get numbers from the studio or Neilsen.

Half of Spiderman's sales were giftwrapped due to first week hype and anticipation because the first 2 movies were great. Tell me this, do you consider Spiderman3 a good movie? As good as parts 1 and 2? Nonetheless it doesn't change the fact that after week 1 when all the diehard Spidey fans make their purchase it will be downhill from there for this title.

Figures don't lie, liars figure... Pick any of the 3 numbers posted in this thread, and I'll proved with mathmatical certianly, that the 2nd coming of Christ will be Friday November 9th at 8:46pm EST time.

About all these numbers mean as far as the format war, is that PRICE does matter. Most of the Blu Ray titles purchased during the BOGO sale were titles already available, but were unpurchased because consumers did not see the value in paying full price. Cut the price in half, and the disc fly off the shelf.

If I were Paramount/Dreamworks, I would be estatic that 1 title that did not have a discounted sales prices could hold it's own against a hugh portion of the total Blu Ray catulogue that was priced 1/2 off.

Hmm...interesting spin. I'm still stunned that a highly-anticipated new release like Transformers couldn't knock off a bunch of months-old Disney catalog titles.

Of course, another plus you didn't consider was that customers like me bought a few more BD titles we normally wouldn't have (ie otherwise we would've bought them soon after it's release). Personally, I added 4 more movies that, for all intent and purposes, would've sat on the shelves unsold forever (to me). Thus, the point of sales is to move older releases and, in this case, it earn Disney another $50 from my pocket as opposed to $0. A definite win for Disney!

For sh!ts & giggles, I plugged in 2007 and SI numbers from Grubert's main thread (using 10% as B1G1 sold):

HDDVD Blu Ray
2007 Sales Ratio 35% 65%
units sold (Sept 30) 1,400,000 2,600,000
Gross Income $33,250,000 $61,750,000
Maximum Customers 1,330,000 2,470,000
HDDVD Blu Ray
SI Sales Ratio 39% 61%
units sold (Sept 30) 1,970,000 3,081,300
Gross Income $46,787,500 $73,180,400
Maximum Customers 1,871,500 2,927,200

Since inception with approx. 350 titles each side, by your standards, Blu Ray has won market share (units AND dollar share) and maximum customers. Most importantly, studios releasing in BD have earned $26,400,000 more in gross income!!! Which ultimately, is the bottom line to studios at this point.

So, instead of moving around the goalpost to define your "win" last week, perhaps you should stick to the Nielsen ratio so it doesn't look so bad for HD DVD.
+1

And he can't argue, thats HIS calculations :D

I know your reply wasn't directed to me, but...

I think we all need to step back and realize that ALL numbers are subjective (depending on who's reading)

BD sold more units. Fine. But how many customers bought BD vs HD, knowing that there was a huge BD sale across all of North America? My conclusion is... not too many.


To add a bit more subjectivity, lets consider this...

How many TV adds did you see for Transformers?
How many TV adds did you see for the BOGO offer?

I found out about the BOGO here, we autotrash junk mail at the post office. I bet more people trash junk mail than read it by far and not many visit these forums like I do. So, subjectivity, how much more exposure did the Transformers launch get vs the exposure BOGO had? The day I took advantage of the BOGO, there was a promotional stand in the front center of the store for Transformers, nothing on the BOGO.

Also, in your sheets I saw no cost associated with the Transformers launch, should you not also consider that since TV air time is very expensive?

It's good to actually see some discussion from people who read my calculations. Despite how it looks, I was actually HOPING for some people to prove me wrong. :)

Anyway, on to your post...

I found out about the BOGO here, we autotrash junk mail at the post office. I bet more people trash junk mail than read it by far and not many visit these forums like I do. So, subjectivity, how much more exposure did the Transformers launch get vs the exposure BOGO had?
I agree with you. Transformers definitely got more promotion than the sale, which is why there were more customers than those who bought BD that week. (talking specifically about Transformers week is starting to get old... but I'm still having fun.) While you only found out about the sale here on AVS, there are a lot of customers who frequently search their weekly flyers looking for deals (especially for new products like HDM). It's just what people do. Anyway, I'm not trying to argue your point, as I think you are correct. But I think that the majority of people who DID know about the sale ended up buying 4 or more discs. At 4 discs per person, it increases the notion of "attach rates", but also decreases the perceived number of potential customers. I think Spiderman's BD sales (SM3 and/or Trilogy) will show just how popular BD really is among the potential userbase. Even though I hated SM3, I'd probably still buy the Trilogy if I owned a BD player.

Also, in your sheets I saw no cost associated with the Transformers launch, should you not also consider that since TV air time is very expensive?
I calculated gross sales. Not net. If I wanted to take it further, as you suggest, I'd also have to include the profit seen by the retailers, which varies greatly based on promotion, sales, quantities, etc. That just seemed like:
a) too much work, and
b) unnecessary for this exercise

Anyway, thanks for actually adding something to the discussion (along with a few others above, who I meant to address, but got busy and forgot). :)

So, instead of moving around the goalpost to define your "win" last week, perhaps you should stick to the Nielsen ratio so it doesn't look so bad for HD DVD.

I wasn't trying to save HD DVD from looking bad.
I was proving that HD DVD gained more gross revenue and had more customers that week. That's all.

Some people think I'm taking this too seriously, but I assure you, I'm not.:cool:

To add a bit more subjectivity, lets consider this...

How many TV adds did you see for Transformers?
How many TV adds did you see for the BOGO offer?

I found out about the BOGO here, we autotrash junk mail at the post office. I bet more people trash junk mail than read it by far and not many visit these forums like I do. So, subjectivity, how much more exposure did the Transformers launch get vs the exposure BOGO had? The day I took advantage of the BOGO, there was a promotional stand in the front center of the store for Transformers, nothing on the BOGO.

Also, in your sheets I saw no cost associated with the Transformers launch, should you not also consider that since TV air time is very expensive?


HDM is so small that discovering a BOGO here or at theproductwarsdotcom is enough to affect the sales ratio.