So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out,

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average
Blu-ray announces at least three 1.1 players for $375-ish,
Two more major CEM's announce DF,
All major studios stay put

Most importantly the market-share of both formats grows modestly but not dramatically.

At what point is the war so futile, you give up on realistically expecting the other side to go away and stop cheer-leading for it's demise?

...At what point is the war so futile, you give up on realistically expecting the other side to go away and stop cheer-leading for it's demise?
When and if Dual format players become the norm and J6P can just buy and play "any" disc in his $199 player.

When and if Dual format players become the norm and J6P can just buy and play "any" disc in his $199 player.

If nothing big by the end of Jan 08 (studios going one way or the other) its pretty much dual player time.

When and if Dual format players become the norm and J6P can just buy and play "any" disc in his $199 player.
Your gonna fight for two more years? :eek:

Seriously though, this is as much of a "do I ever get sick of fighting question" as much as anything.

I may never like that my format doesn't clearly prevail, but I do grow weary of wheel spinning, and once I have both and neither have and great technical advantage or surefire strategy, I'm sure I won't see the point.

I'm already taking little self-imposed "Oh who gives a crap" exiles from AVS (the only tech-forum I haunt).

So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out,

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average
Blu-ray announces at least three 1.1 players for $375-ish,
Two more major CEM's announce DF,
All major studios stay put

Most importantly the market-share of both formats grows modestly but not dramatically.

At what point is the war so futile, you give up on realistically expecting the other side to go away and stop cheer-leading for it's demise?So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out,

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out, and

HD DVD DOES NOT get the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD DOES NOT increase it's market share to a 38% average

What then?

How on earth could anyone here affect the outcome? Some of you guys buying thousands of disc and not telling anyone?

At what point is the war so futile, you give up on realistically expecting the other side to go away and stop cheer-leading for it's demise?

I don't see an end in sight if things stay the way they are now. It will take a major upset for either to die off at this point (big studios switching sides. Toshiba or Sony running out of money, etc).

Both Toshiba and Sony have really deep pockets so I don't expect that to happen.

I think Warner has both sides by the nads and they know it. If Warner goes exclusive either way things will be looking pretty bad for the format that loses them.

So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out, and

HD DVD DOES NOT get the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD DOES NOT increase it's market share to a 38% average

What then?

Nothing, because the HD DVD camp seems to be focusing on Player sales rather than disk sales. The TL51 only becomes a reality if it can be made to be compatible with existing players (as per spec) so it may never become a reality (and I think it's more a talking point anyway)

HD DVD camp seems to be looking at the bigger picture by increasing their stand alone player sales while the BDA camp seems to be interested in trying to win the war quick with their 2fer sales.

If things stay the way they are now (as far as studio support) I see HD DVD slowly gaining market share (disk sales) over the next year as their player prices continue to drop.

the BDA camp is at least a year behind in dropping their prices, and let's face it, Sony has used up all it's gimmes when it concerns dropping the price on the PS3, they can't afford another price drop on the PS3 for a very long time. Not if they ever want to start making a profit on hardware sales in the next several years. (if they drop the price to $299.00 and offer 100 off if you go with their Sonystyle credit, then I'm buying one, that's for sure. hehe).

I see good things for HD DVD in the coming year as long as player prices stay $200.00 or less. I also like the fact that Warner Bros. has commented that they are going to be looking at stand alone player sales this holiday season as opposed to disk sales in evaluating what they plan to do in the upcoming months, but I don't expect them to go exclusive for the next 6 months anyway.

I think the biggest obstacles for the BDA is dropping player pricing and getting their specs finalized as quickly as possible, if they don't have the 2.0 spec finalized by mid 08, and 2.0 compliant players reaching customers by Christmas of 08, then they may be in even more trouble than they will be if the current stand alone players can't be updated to play the 2.0 disks.

Mass adoption of either format will be through low prices and ease of use. HD DVD has the advantage (at least with pricing) in this area. The BDA will eventually catch up as people say, but by then the install base will be much larger and HD DVD may have caught up or have taken the lead in disk sales.

IMO Toshiba needs to start dropping prices on ALL of it's players though, not just it's low-end players, if they do not then pretty soon they will find that all but their low-end players are equal to or more expensive in price to the BDA players.

So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out, and

HD DVD DOES NOT get the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD DOES NOT increase it's market share to a 38% average

What then?

What if you started your own poll with your own hypothetical question?

The premise here is reaction to a stalemate, I chose (possible) factors that could contribute to it happening. If I wanted to predict a win, I would choose factors that illustrate that possibility. I've asked this question before in some regard, but since then there have been changes in the landscape, and predictions of wins that have come and gone.

For the record, it is my hunch that a stalemate is more likely now than ever, and becomes increasingly more likely as both sides continue to grow.

I don't see an end in sight if things stay the way they are now. It will take a major upset for either to die off at this point (big studios switching sides. Toshiba or Sony running out of money, etc).

Both Toshiba and Sony have really deep pockets so I don't expect that to happen.

I think Warner has both sides by the nads and they know it. If Warner goes exclusive either way things will be looking pretty bad for the format that loses them.

Agreed, At present, Warner is the only wild-card left IMO. I can easily see this holiday season selling more HD DVD standalones and more BD PS3s, but not as many as either side would like, and not disproportionately enough to make either side a clear winner. It also seems as if both will eventually advance there specs to the degree that already somewhat negligible differences become completely negligible, especially to the as of yet unsold bystander.

One of the reasons I smell a stalemate, is that I think you simply can't manufacture a market, and create demand where desire is very limited.

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average
Blu-ray announces at least three 1.1 players for $375-ish,
Two more major CEM's announce DF,
All major studios stay put

RED - I believe you are being a bit over zealous on these two talking points.

TL51 - we will probably not see this until the end of Q1 or even Q2 for 2008.

A Low priced 1.1 player? Which player are we talking about? The least expensive 1.1 player announced so far is the LG BH200 at $999 with the Samsung 5000 at $1049 to follow - both to hit the street before the end of the year.

You did forget the TL Twin which MAY be up and running by the end of the year.

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average
Blu-ray announces at least three 1.1 players for $375-ish,
Two more major CEM's announce DF,
All major studios stay put

RED - I believe you are being a bit over zealous on these two talking points.

TL51 - we will probably not see this until the end of Q1 or even Q2 for 2008.

A Low priced 1.1 player? Which player are we talking about? The least expensive 1.1 player announced so far is the LG BH200 at $999 with the Samsung 5000 at $1049 to follow - both to hit the street before the end of the year.

You did forget the TL Twin which MAY be up and running by the end of the year.

I tried to paint a relatively positive "benefit of a doubt" picture for both sides. The TL 51 Twin is something so new, that it's really hard to calculate what the consumer-response or implementation is likely to be. So I kind of left it out on purpose.

...
You did forget the TL Twin which MAY be up and running by the end of the year.

imo this and combo disks are more important than anything else... if hd dvd backing studios simply start phasing out dvd for day/date releases in '08.

toshiba has provided the technology. it is up to the studios to use it or not.

imo this and combo disks are more important than anything else... if hd dvd backing studios simply start phasing out dvd for day/date releases in '08.

toshiba has provided the technology. it is up to the studios to use it or not.
With studios backing off of HD DVD combos recently, I don't see the HD 30/DVD5 combo discs gaining more traction.

TL Twin 30/5s could make a nice impact, but they should cost as much or more as the double sided combo discs and have worse failure rates as well, so unless production problems are ironed out, I'm skeptical of how enthusiastic the studios will be about those when they're gunshy about the former.

At this point, I think we've aware of most of what's going to happen over the next few months. Modest increase in sales volumes overall (not counting big blockbuster day/date spikes), a fair amount of hardware sold - but not as much as either side would like, and some swings in the software sales as this or that blockbuster hits release (for this reason alone Blu-ray should handily win most if not all of the remaining weeks of 2007).

I think we'll see some 1.1 players for Blu-ray, but I somewhat doubt they'll hit $375 MSRP (street pricing might be in that range though). This is working on the assumption that at least two units hit the market and push the PlayStation 3 to upgrade to Profile 1.1, forcing the rest of the Blu-ray market to follow in the footsteps of the $399 PS3.

I don't think TL51 is any more relevant than Blu-ray Profile 1.1 at $375. Both are nice to have; neither are likely to be seen till well into 2008. There is also going to be a lag before any 1.1 titles are released.

It would be helpful if Toshiba could find another brand name CE to make stand alone HD DVD players (instead of dual format) but that will happen eventually unless someone figures out how to make a profit and dual format players at the $299 or less price point.

HD DVD is held back partly because Toshiba is simply not sold in all stores; some dealers only carry Blu-ray as a result. But that's not important for Xmas 2007 since Toshiba DOES have a pretty broad distribution channel.

I believe what I have believed for some months now that HD DVD hardware at "affordable, mainstream" price points will drive the technology into many homes. There is a small mount of software to date (same issue with Blu-ray) but it's enough to tap out most of our wallets; what's NOT available is not yet relevant.

Things could change overnight: Warner switching to Blu-ray exclusive, for example. But as more and more players are sold, its less and less compelling for any studio to remain exclusive since studios sell movies in many different forms already: theatrical, DVD, On Demand, PPV, download, rental and now hidef media. Provided there is a big enough installed player base, it becomes a bit silly not to offer content.

Since there is NO compelling reason why Blu-ray should beat HD DVD on purely technical grounds that matter to 95% of potential buyers, hardware pricing is still the driver so long as adequate software stays in market. Over time, HD DVD will do the tortoise thing and win this race so long as all current trends continue. But THAT'S an assumption no one can make with certainty as we discovered in August with Paramount's decision.

Not that I set this up to be a 51-twin, but my reasoning in it not being a factor of note yet are,

It doesn't change the specs of the HD DVD portion of the disk, and hence won't sway many BD fans.

We have no idea if it can be priced at the level of a standard HD DVD

We don't know if studios will use it as a one-disk alternative for HD DVD/SD DVD, because the DVD layer would not be large enough to offer copious extras in addition to the feature.

It may prove to be quite popular with the consumer who wants the flexibility and security of a play-anywhere disk, but they really have to be out there in the market to gauge their appeal.

Not that I set this up to be a 51-twin, but my reasoning in it not being a factor of note yet are,

It doesn't change the specs of the HD DVD portion of the disk, and hence won't sway many BD fans.

We have no idea if it can be priced at the level of a standard HD DVD

We don't know if studios will use it as a one-disk alternative for HD DVD/SD DVD, because the DVD layer would not be large enough to offer copious extras in addition to the feature.

It may prove to be quite popular with the consumer who wants the flexibility and security of a play-anywhere disk, but they really have to be out there in the market to gauge their appeal.


imo combo/twin with no dvd for day/date is the only major technology advantage. speculate all you want on whether it will be deployed or not.

everything else just leads to a stalemate.

When and if Dual format players become the norm and J6P can just buy and play "any" disc in his $199 player.

Man would this ever speed up HDM adoption!:) For me I see this "war" dragging on for a long, long time (I don't see the smoke clearing in the next year or so). I have decided that dual format is the way to go so I am waiting for a fully featured dual format player at $500 or less. It must havd full HD-DVD functionality, plus Blu-Ray 1.1 along with excellent upconversion of DVDs. Get me there for $500 or less and I am in!

Who knows, the Samsung 5000 apparently will be Blu-Ray 1,1 by late Janurary 2008 or so with a firmware update (I base this on info I have read on AVS). Maybe this player will make it down to $500 in 2008! HDM might be coming to my home sooner that I thought!:) If not then I hope Oppo decides to build a dual format player some day. With Toshiba HD-DVD players selling under $200 now Oppo may have trouble selling their players above this price point (although they are excellent DVD upconverters).

I voted for the last option. I never really tried to influence the outcome of the war, as I could never, even if I tried. I don't buy a lot of movies. I rent from Blockbuster Online and Netflix. I bought the HD-A1 when it first came out as it was within my modest budget, and offered spectacular HD playback. I jumped and bought a PS3 at launch because I could for the first time afford a BD player, so that I did not have to miss out on my favorite movies on BD nomore.

For some people it is all about spec sheets. For me, it is about the movies. Stop the bickering and enjoy the movies, people !!

I couldn't care less at this point, I don't think there will be a winner anytime soon unless there are some big time studio switches, I think Paramount ensured a stalemate. I hope dual format players come down quickly in price or we're doomed to a niche status for a while.

So, if this holiday shopping-season plays out,

HD DVD gets the TL51 up and running,
HD DVD increases it's market share to a 38% average
Blu-ray announces at least three 1.1 players for $375-ish,
Two more major CEM's announce DF,
All major studios stay put

Most importantly the market-share of both formats grows modestly but not dramatically.

At what point is the war so futile, you give up on realistically expecting the other side to go away and stop cheer-leading for it's demise?

Wings on pigs ... you forgot that one.

Wings on pigs ... you forgot that one.

+1 Exactly:rolleyes:
TL51 Q2 2008 AT BEST more like Q3-Q4 or never

All I want to do is bring to the attention of anyone who's looking here for information to buy one or the other is:
- in spite of BD claims of superiority no one has been able to show the PQ or AQ is better than HD DVD
- the cost of entry to BD is double
- BD lacks HD DVD features such as true PiP and internet connectivity
- BD has compatibilty issues arising from these yet unimplemented features and possibly BD+
- BD may lose more studios

In time, this will sort itself out, but for now HD DVD is a good choice.

+1 Exactly:rolleyes:
TL51 Q2 2008 AT BEST more like Q3-Q4 or never

Sorry but when I made that list a BD 1.1 at $375 seemed like an equally fanciful suspension of disbelief to me. In fact as it stands with a $500 entry fee and semi-obsolete players, they so far have nothing special to offer, and I consider all these 1.0 players a demerit.

1.1 $375 is where I'd have bitten. Until then Blu-ray isn't just expensive, it's a straight-up ripoff.