Now that Walmart has struck the first blow with HDM players for $198 on end-caps (some with over 40 boxes!), and with Circuit City's $197 response, what will be the next big sale? How will Best Buy and other major electronics stores compete?
My local Walmart now has 20+ boxes of players on display while my local Best buy has 14 total (Blu and Red).

Its clear that a $399 price tag this holiday season will not be a good incentive to get people into the stores, so how will stores like Best Buy respond? What about Target? What about the Venturer player that is coming, will anyone besides Target carry it to compete? Will the PS3 drop to $299 or will a Blu-Ray stand-alone drop below $300?

My bet is that this holiday season the base of stand-alones will easily double, and maybe triple with the low prices. The big questions are who is going to sell them all and what will they be?

I doubt you'll see a PS3 drop below the $400 drop, it would kill other CEM support of BD which it probably is already challenging. $200 is a good price, I think BD has to get a 1.1 player down to $300 if they want to sell a lot of players.

the HDM setup with 2 LCD tvs showing off both formats at my local walmart has 3 of the 4 sides dedicated to blu-ray. only one side has hd dvds for sale :(

HD DVD is delivering everything that they promised, right before our eyes.:)

Now, if they suddenly deliver the Xbox multimedia center with HD DVD...:D

I doubt you'll see a PS3 drop below the $400 drop, it would kill other CEM support of BD which it probably is already challenging. $200 is a good price, I think BD has to get a 1.1 player down to $300 if they want to sell a lot of players.
Post is on target. I'd be surprised if Sony hasn't heard alot of grumbling from CE makers about PS3 pricing cannibalizing most set top sales.

That said, you'll make more selling a million units at a $20 margin than you will 50k units at a $200 margin. Wonder who will be the first breakout BD maker...

MEC2

I am not sure if any of the standalone BD vendors are even considering profile 1.1 and up players! From the looks of it, if you want profile 1.1 it is the PS3 (hopefully), or one of the Uni players from LG or Samsung. Also, if Samsung puts the Reon on the uni player but not the BD standalone, it will send another message on the state of the alliance....FWIW, I have not kept up with BD hardware lately, so just based on what I have heard recently.....

I think BD has to get a 1.1 player down to $300 if they want to sell a lot of players.

Frankly, by the time Blu-ray launches a fully capable Profile 1.1 player -- the sort which delivers the interactive experience Disney signed on for -- it may be too late. In any case, $300 is not nearly cheap enough for 2008. The new bar has been set at $199; significant volumes of Blu-ray players will have to appear soon to keep up. The PS3 "value add" has reached the limit assisting the Blu-ray invasion. 2008 is the year of the stand-alone player.

The saviour might be a dual format player but, again, it's got to offer full HD DVD and Blu-ray 1.1 functionality AND at a price which will convince volume buyers to choose it over a stand-alone. That price is still $199ish. And nothing like that is in sight.

Sub $200 has arrived! And with a "name brand" player no less. Wow!:eek:

I am assuming that the Venturer and other future Chinese products will have to go to $149 (or less) to compete against the Toshiba. Blu-Ray is going to need to get to $299 or less soon to compete against this (in my opinion).

For me I still see this "war" as a long process. I am waiting for a dual player which is fully functioning (full HD-DVD functionality plus Blu-Ray 1.1) and has excellent upconversion capabilities (I have a LOT of DVDs!). Give me this player at $500 or less and count me in!:)

Me, I am riding this HD DVD thing to the end. ;)

Post is on target. I'd be surprised if Sony hasn't heard alot of grumbling from CE makers about PS3 pricing cannibalizing most set top sales.
I'd imagine they're looking at what it takes to sell standalones right now and thinking neither format is appealing to produce for.

For me I still see this "war" as a long process. I am waiting for a dual player which is fully functioning (full HD-DVD functionality plus Blu-Ray 1.1) and has excellent upconversion capabilities (I have a LOT of DVDs!). Give me this player at $500 or less and count me in!:)
Right there with ya, home skillet.

That there isn't a player yet anywhere near this range is frustrating as hell. You could staple an A2 to a BD-300 for cheaper than you can get a single-tray dually.

Sucks.

MEC2

Right there with ya, home skillet.

That there isn't a player yet anywhere near this range is frustrating as hell. You could staple an A2 to a BD-300 for cheaper than you can get a single-tray dually.

Sucks.

MEC2

I see this changing (thankfully). I am hearing that street pricing of the Samsung 5000 will be around $799. In time I can see this getting down to $599. With closeouts next year with a newer dual format player coming maybe the 5000 will get down to $499. At that point (assuming that the player has been getting good reviews) then I will buy in.

$500 is my magic price point and I can buy an excellent player from either format at this point. I am hoping that by this point next year Blu-Ray 1.1 will be here (with some software to support it) and the players in general will be a bit more "stable" with less firmware updates required. I also hate switchers and was glad to leave them behind when I got my 50" set last year. I would rather have one player that my wife can put any disc into as well as not have to deal with an HDMI switcher.

Bring on the $500 (and under) dual format players! Hopefully one day $199 dualies will be here and the higher end ones will be $500-$1000.

Sub $200 has arrived! And with a "name brand" player no less. Wow!:eek:

I am assuming that the Venturer and other future Chinese products will have to go to $149 (or less) to compete against the Toshiba. Blu-Ray is going to need to get to $299 or less soon to compete against this (in my opinion).

For me I still see this "war" as a long process. I am waiting for a dual player which is fully functioning (full HD-DVD functionality plus Blu-Ray 1.1) and has excellent upconversion capabilities (I have a LOT of DVDs!). Give me this player at $500 or less and count me in!:)

Its amazing that the "everyday" price for a player is now down to $198. You have to wonder what the Black Friday sales will be, and what will Best Buy do to compete? Walmart is gunning to be the nations #1 electronics retailer, and this is just part of the plan.

I am not sure if any of the standalone BD vendors are even considering profile 1.1 and up players!

Panasonic are planning one for December.

Sub $200 has arrived! And with a "name brand" player no less. Wow!:eek:

I am assuming that the Venturer and other future Chinese products will have to go to $149 (or less) to compete against the Toshiba.

The $200 Toshiba has to be a painful reality to other manufacturers like Venturer.

In the same vein as this statement: "I doubt you'll see a PS3 drop below the $400 drop, it would kill other CEM support of BD which it probably is already challenging.", the $200 Toshiba is closing the door to opportunity for anyone other than Toshiba to make reasonable player sales.

My assumption is that the $200 players are simply clearing stock so that the 3rd gen can take its place back at the 'usual price' - if not, I can't imagine any success in the player market for anyone other than Toshiba.

$500 is my magic price point and I can buy an excellent player from either format at this point.

I completely agree that $499 is a "magic point" for many of us here for a dual format (actually triple format) player. But for mass sales where the dual option might sell at a slight premium on the grounds of completeness, it's got to compete at the lower end as well -- hence $199 or soemthing like that now that this price point seems to be set as the entry level for hidef.

Me, I am riding this HD DVD thing to the end. ;)

http://www.facade.com/celebrity/photo/Jim_Morrison.jpg UNTIL THE END... :D

Its amazing that the "everyday" price for a player is now down to $198. You have to wonder what the Black Friday sales will be, and what will Best Buy do to compete? Walmart is gunning to be the nations #1 electronics retailer, and this is just part of the plan.

I imagine that in this segment the panic has already set in at Target, not Best Buy. Best Buy is more likely concerned about Circuit City selling players at this ridiculously low $199 price point which of course could never hap ... uh-oh ... CC is matching Wal-Mart, isn't it? ;)

Blu-ray definitely needs some low-cost option and it had better be a decent player as well. The PS3 is simply the best BD option for like 99% of the buyers out there and the stand-alones will contunue to lose sales to it. The Holidays will be even worse for stand-alones since holidays revolve around kids and they are more likely to ask for a PS3 as opposed to a stand-alone player.

$299 would be the highest price they should shoot for....

The $200 Toshiba has to be a painful reality to other manufacturers like Venturer.


With 20-40 A2s at every WM supercenter, I doubt they are just clearing out stock.

My bet is that other retailers will jump on the Venturer just ot compete. Stores now need an HDM player at close to $200, and they just happen to have one.

Blu-ray definitely needs some low-cost option and it had better be a decent player as well.
Why is the standalone player market that dizzyingly important?

I am not sure if any of the standalone BD vendors are even considering profile 1.1 and up players! From the looks of it, if you want profile 1.1 it is the PS3 (hopefully), or one of the Uni players from LG or Samsung. Also, if Samsung puts the Reon on the uni player but not the BD standalone, it will send another message on the state of the alliance....FWIW, I have not kept up with BD hardware lately, so just based on what I have heard recently.....

That is how the 1400 and 5000 are configured:

The 1400 has the ABT UP DVD chip . . . . $499

The 5000 has the REON UP DVD chip . . . . $1049

With 20-40 A2s at every WM supercenter, I doubt they are just clearing out stock.

My bet is that other retailers will jump on the Venturer just ot compete. Stores now need an HDM player at close to $200, and they just happen to have one.

hmmmm....when is the venturer supposed to be out? Its near November and still no reviews etc. More vaporware again?

The A3 is to street the first week of November . . . next week. It is pretty much the same player as the A2 with the exception of the two movies included in the box.

IMO - the moulds are already paid for on the A2. The components are not much different between the A2 and the A3 (both use the NEC SoC)

There is no reason in the world why Toshiba can not continue to sell both the A2 and the A3. Sell the A2W at Wal-Mart - sell the A2C at Costco (includes an HDMI cable in the box) and sell the A3 to the other B&M and online retailers.

hmmmm....when is the venturer supposed to be out? Its near November and still no reviews etc. More vaporware again?

Surely you jest, because BD players with the 1.1 - 2.0 profile is the true vaporware.

So what is the incentive for people to buy a low priced HDM player ?

1. They already bought Transformers on SD.
2. Will Bourne Ultimatium and Shrek3 save the day?
3. What will they do when they see that current upcoming Disney CGI, Spiderman3, & POTC3 are only available on Blu-ray ?
4. Are they willing to pay $25-35 for an HD DVD day and date release when they can get the SD version for $15 ?
5. Will these low player prices give them butterflies in their stomach to encourage an impulse buy and commit to purchasing higher priced catalog releases ?

Why is the standalone player market that dizzyingly important?

Because of the focus on attach rates, which may go down for HD DVD if they sell a lot of these players and people realize that discs cost twice as much as SD versions and they can't play Blu-ray Hi Definition discs on their players.

So what is the incentive for people to buy a low priced HDM player ?

1. They already bought Transformers on SD.
2. Will Bourne Ultimatium and Shrek3 save the day?
3. What will they do when they see that current upcoming Disney CGI, Spiderman3, & POTC3 are only available on Blu-ray ?
4. Are they willing to pay $25-35 for an HD DVD day and date release when they can get the SD version for $15 ?
5. Will these low player prices give them butterflies in their stomach to encourage an impulse buy and commit to purchasing higher priced catalog releases ?

What's the incentive for people to buy a high priced BD player?

1. What will they do when they see upcoming hits like Bourne and Shrek are only available on HD DVD?
2. Are they willing to pay $25-$35 for a BD day and date release when they can get the SD version for $15?
3. Can they justify the higher priced BD player when HD DVD is ~$200 cheaper?

So what is the incentive for people to buy a low priced HDM player ?

1. They already bought Transformers on SD.
2. Will Bourne Ultimatium and Shrek3 save the day?
3. What will they do when they see that current upcoming Disney CGI, Spiderman3, & POTC3 are only available on Blu-ray ?
4. Are they willing to pay $25-35 for an HD DVD day and date release when they can get the SD version for $15 ?
5. Will these low player prices give them butterflies in their stomach to encourage an impulse buy and commit to purchasing higher priced catalog releases ?

Good questions - unfortunately they also apply to BD . . or did they drop the price on the BB's that you mentioned?:confused:

hmmmm....when is the venturer supposed to be out? Its near November and still no reviews etc. More vaporware again?

WOW, now you guys cant even believe truths,,,listen, do you think wal mart is going to stop at $198??

Toshiba basically handed them the ball...you will see a $146.00 HD DVD player before xmas. This is like a snowball going downhill. Wally has a long range plan...have you ever seen anything at Wallys stay at the original asking price?

Especially when people see 2 movies in box and 5 more free? I think the xmas pack needs 1 family movie in there as well as 1 for the adults and then you will see hdtv's as well sell more.:)

This is also good news for BD as well...there is no way Sony can stay in this game without offereing a low cost option so the Blubois should be happy as well. Unfortuinately, the player I want the sammy 5000 is 1k.

Good questions - unfortunately they also apply to BD . . or did they drop the price on the BB's that you mentioned?:confused:

No you're correct.
I think low priced players is a good start/strategy but I still believe a split HDM movie catalog and higher priced discs will still deter people from making a long term commitment to a single format player.

No you're correct.
I think low priced players is a good start/strategy but I still believe a split HDM movie catalog and higher priced discs will still deter people from making a long term commitment to a single format player.

So let me ask you this . . .

Did the studios really expect people to buy two players so that they could buy any movie?

On launch - that would have been over $1500. It dropped to $1000 and now it is just under $700. That is alot of money for the public to pay along with the headachs of multiple HDMI connections - 3 if they have HD "OTA" and many HDTV's only have 2 HDMI connections. So Component has to be used - that big thick wire.:(

So let me ask you this . . .

Did the studios really expect people to buy two players so that they could buy any movie?

On launch - that would have been over $1500. It dropped to $1000 and now it is just under $700. That is alot of money for the public to pay along with the headachs of multiple HDMI connections - 3 if they have HD "OTA" and many HDTV's only have 2 HDMI connections. So Component has to be used - that big thick wire.:(


I don't want to have to deal with multiple players. Once universal machine that can play all the HDM on the market plus my DVDs please!:)

I've got to say though that the Toshiba is one intriguing option at under $200 though. Many folks that pick one of those up will become HD-DVD only (I guess the same could be said for people who pick up a PS3 and watch movies on it).

Other than a $299 PS3 what can compete against this from the Blu-Ray side? Mass adoption (and this is where the studios will actually make decent $) is based on price and HD-DVD is there now. Can anyone see $99 Chinese HD-DVD players in 2008? At these pricing levels they can't be that far off...

No you're correct.
I think low priced players is a good start/strategy but I still believe a split HDM movie catalog and higher priced discs will still deter people from making a long term commitment to a single format player.

For $199 it's really not a huge commitment and if the media is too expensive for people there's always NetFlix!:rolleyes:

For $199 it's really not a huge commitment and if the media is too expensive for people there's always NetFlix!:rolleyes:

If you sell it as an upconverting player that plays ALL SD DVDs and also HD DVDs, then $199 is not to much to ask. We will see if it sells. My bet is Walmart has done some research.

For $199 it's really not a huge commitment and if the media is too expensive for people there's always NetFlix!:rolleyes:

If people buy an HD DVD player, don't buy discs and rent, won't that kill attach rates ?:confused:

If people buy an HD DVD player, don't buy discs and rent, won't that kill attach rates ?:confused:

You mean they will NEVER buy a HD DVD? Never ever? And if rentals increase then so will the pool of rental discs - all revenue for the studios.

Rental can provide a larger revenue stream than a sale. But the sale is all up front while the rental is over time. Good to have both IMO.

For DVD - 1/3 of all revenue from DVD comes from rental. Last year $16 billion in sales - $8 billion in rentals.

Now that Walmart has struck the first blow with HDM players for $198 on end-caps (some with over 40 boxes!), and with Circuit City's $197 response, what will be the next big sale? How will Best Buy and other major electronics stores compete?
My local Walmart now has 20+ boxes of players on display while my local Best buy has 14 total (Blu and Red).

Its clear that a $399 price tag this holiday season will not be a good incentive to get people into the stores, so how will stores like Best Buy respond? What about Target? What about the Venturer player that is coming, will anyone besides Target carry it to compete? Will the PS3 drop to $299 or will a Blu-Ray stand-alone drop below $300?

My bet is that this holiday season the base of stand-alones will easily double, and maybe triple with the low prices. The big questions are who is going to sell them all and what will they be?

The Biggest problem BB/Ultimate and others are having right now is actually having inventory to sell. All the BBs/CCs and Ultimates in Colorado are sold out of HD-A2/A3s.
The 1080i/720P model HD-DVD players are in very short supply around here.
The HD-A20 is widely available however.

For me I still see this "war" as a long process. I am waiting for a dual player which is fully functioning (full HD-DVD functionality plus Blu-Ray 1.1) and has excellent upconversion capabilities (I have a LOT of DVDs!). Give me this player at $500 or less and count me in!:)


Never will see it. By Jan. 2009 you will never have a need for blu-ray SA player as ALL studios will be supporting the defacto HD DVD standard.

I went to my local Wal-Mart today (south metro Minneapolis) and they told me (2 electronics associates) they are "clearancing ALL blu-ray players except the PS3 because they DO NOT sell." I noticed they had 2 HD-A3's on the shelf at $298. They had 1 Philips at $498 (reg. $898) and 1 Sony for $498. I could not find an HD-A2.

Also noticed Circuit City was offering the Samsung 1400 blu-ray SA for $499 and 8 mail in freebie movies! I took notice and moved on.

I am not sure if any of the standalone BD vendors are even considering profile 1.1 and up players! From the looks of it, if you want profile 1.1 it is the PS3 (hopefully), or one of the Uni players from LG or Samsung. Also, if Samsung puts the Reon on the uni player but not the BD standalone, it will send another message on the state of the alliance....FWIW, I have not kept up with BD hardware lately, so just based on what I have heard recently.....

I have a feeling a CE or two will be bowing out of the BD business right after the 1.1 deadline (next week).

This is also good news for BD as well...there is no way Sony can stay in this game without offereing a low cost option so the Blubois should be happy as well.

That's conjecture. The (near) presence of Venturer proves HD DVD players can be manufactured and sold at the $199 level. Sony, on the other hand, lost close to $1 billion this summer selling PS3s below cost; can they really sell a BDS-P300 for $199? Will they? The Target deal is $499 ....

I don't want to have to deal with multiple players. Once universal machine that can play all the HDM on the market plus my DVDs please!:)

I agree: I will only buy DVD and HD DVD for the time being. I have no need for a dual format player or a second hidef source such as a game console or a Blu-ray player; I'd rather spend the $4-$500 on movies.

If HD DVD eventually wins the war, I'll have a nice hidef library started. If Blu-ray wins, I'll still have a very handsome DVD library and some HD DVD discs I can play on my "old" HD DVD players.

In the meantime, there is no reason for me to go to the expense of supporting a seocnd format I don't believe offers anything over what I am getting now in PQ, AQ or usability.

I have a feeling a CE or two will be bowing out of the BD business right after the 1.1 deadline (next week).

One thing is sure: until 2 or 3 studios LOUDLY get on board the Profile 1.1 bandwagon, the CEs aren't going to make any noise about it and will continue to "delay" models as Samsung has already done.

The question is: can Blu-ray be the victor while effectively staying at 1.0 for another two years? The PS3 may be upgradable: bravo. But if that were a slam dunk, I'd think a number of titles would have been announced for Xmas or shortly after. So far ... nada.

Question: What if they called a war but only a skirmish ensued? Would victory taste as sweet?

Me, I am riding this HD DVD thing to the end. ;)

+1:D

Never will see it. By Jan. 2009 you will never have a need for blu-ray SA player as ALL studios will be supporting the defacto HD DVD standard.

I went to my local Wal-Mart today (south metro Minneapolis) and they told me (2 electronics associates) they are "clearancing ALL blu-ray players except the PS3 because they DO NOT sell." I noticed they had 2 HD-A3's on the shelf at $298. They had 1 Philips at $498 (reg. $898) and 1 Sony for $498. I could not find an HD-A2.

Also noticed Circuit City was offering the Samsung 1400 blu-ray SA for $499 and 8 mail in freebie movies! I took notice and moved on.

Is that right? We are up to 8 free movies on a mail in rebate? WOW! Here comes 10 by the end of the year!

I prognosticated 10 by the end of the year back in Feb. Do I win something? No? Darn it.:mad:

That should really help - stocking a consumer's library with free movies - and we wonder why the sales are so low. (And yes HD DVD is just as guilty with now 7 - 2 in the box and 5 by mail.)

It would be interesting to find out how many will get returned after J6P buys it on impulse but then finds out it won't play the blu ray version of Cars, Spiderman, Diehard or Pirates ...

It would be interesting to find out how many will get returned after J6P buys it on impulse but then finds out it won't play the blu ray version of Cars, Spiderman, Diehard or Pirates ...

Well if you are REALLY interested in returns . . . you should take comfort that BD will experience almost no returns . . .

Got to have a sale before a return.;)

It would be interesting to find out how many will get returned after J6P buys it on impulse but then finds out it won't play the blu ray version of Cars, Spiderman, Diehard or Pirates ...

Yes, that is why this "war" sucks in the first place and I want a dual format player. Then again what about the family that buys a PS3 and can't play the exclusive HD-DVD movies? At the end of the day there are great titles on both sides that I would want. This is why I am trying to hold off for a universal player that is stable and fully featured. Darn, the Toshibas are tempting though....

But you'll have to pry Transformers, Shrek 3, three Bourne stories and a box of Matrix out of his hand at the same time ... encouraging J6P to enjoy what he's got and go home happy without making the return in the reassurance that 2008 movies will arrive "faster and more furiouser" than in 2007. ;)

It would be interesting to find out how many will get returned after J6P buys it on impulse but then finds out it won't play the blu ray version of Cars, Spiderman, Diehard or Pirates ...

So following this logic J6P will be returning the regular old DVD player he bought as well 'cause it can't play any blu-ray disks either :p


Regarding a PS3 price drop... any substantial price change seems VERY unlikely - forget about any concern Sony may have for keeping other CEs committed to BR. The game division just lost $876 million, then dropped the price of the PS3 again. It is the Sony shareholders that will prevent another meaningful price drop. If you are looking for a deal on a PS3 I would look for a bundle.

HD DVD is delivering everything that they promised, right before our eyes.:)

Now, if they suddenly deliver the Xbox multimedia center with HD DVD...:D
Maybe...



http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.xbox360fanboy.com/media/2007/10/leakyiptvmicrosoftfall1.jpg

I think that this is the beginning of the end for BD now. The band is warming up to play Taps...

$198 players at Walmart, and now Circuit City is matching the price. Best Buy will be next. There are likely going to be hundreds of thousands of players sold this month - god knows how much by January.

HD DVD matched Bluray sales this week, even though Bluray had their BD BOGOF 2 for 1 sale. Bluray's lead is definitely shot to hell.

And what's up with Fox in January? hmmm...

HD DVD matched Bluray sales this week, even though Bluray had their BD BOGOF 2 for 1 sale.

Was that BOGOF for Blu-ray discs or players? Maybe if players are sold that way there's a chance ... oh, but wait ... that WOULD be a $199 sale, wouldn't it? ;)

It would be interesting to find out how many will get returned after J6P buys it on impulse but then finds out it won't play the blu ray version of Cars, Spiderman, Diehard or Pirates ...

The people who buy these are the ones who would be sticking with DVD if the $198 players were not available. They will just get the cheaper SD versions instead.

Again, Walmart is not stupid. I am sure they did their research. They would not buy tens of thousands of players on a whim.

198 dollar walmart hddvd and cc 197 is just the beginning (add target/bb/costco) then microsoft comes out with xbox 360 media bundle with 2 hddvd movies and the a/o for 399 would be the crushing blow

ps a/o dropped to 99 plus 2 movies ,then warner goes exclusive to hddvd

I think that this is the beginning of the end for BD now. The band is warming up to play Taps...

Ahh, the rdjam perspective... as much as we have heard that HD DVD is prematurely dead, how many times have you said that BD is dead now?

$198 players at Walmart, and now Circuit City is matching the price. Best Buy will be next. There are likely going to be hundreds of thousands of players sold this month - god knows how much by January.
Yeah, fire sales work well to shift old inventory. Let us know when/if the gen 3 players are selling at Walmart and for how much.

HD DVD matched Bluray sales this week, even though Bluray had their BD BOGOF 2 for 1 sale. Bluray's lead is definitely shot to hell.

Actually, the correct term is failed again to match. And the largest selling HD DVD ever failed to match a few titles on sale price for BD. This is due to the lack of install base for HD DVD relative to BD...

And what's up with Fox in January? hmmm...
They seem to be loving BD+ and have announced Man on Fire for January 8. Should be a good month with a number of other BD exclusives, including New Line pseudo exclusives do to the HD DVD region code oversight...

So when you ask for whom the bell tolls...

I imagine that in this segment the panic has already set in at Target, not Best Buy. Best Buy is more likely concerned about Circuit City selling players at this ridiculously low $199 price point which of course could never hap ... uh-oh ... CC is matching Wal-Mart, isn't it? ;)

I hope Target got A LOT of MONEY from the BDA...or was it SONY? Oh no, I forgot, the BDA doesn't pay...

The A3 is to street the first week of November . . . next week. It is pretty much the same player as the A2 with the exception of the two movies included in the box.

IMO - the moulds are already paid for on the A2. The components are not much different between the A2 and the A3 (both use the NEC SoC)

There is no reason in the world why Toshiba can not continue to sell both the A2 and the A3. Sell the A2W at Wal-Mart - sell the A2C at Costco (includes an HDMI cable in the box) and sell the A3 to the other B&M and online retailers.

The A2 boxes I saw today at the Wal-Mart across the street from the Wal-Mart home office had A2C on the box. The electronics guys were putting the up out of reach though. I didn't ask if they were for sale, but I might be picking up a second A2 since I get the employee discount because of the girlfriend.

Phloyd:

Here is what you see with the 51/49 sales ratio . . "BD won"

Here is what the studios see . . . more HD DVD people went out and bought a movie then BD people did. Yet BD people out populate HD people by almost 6 to 1. And all they came up with was a 1 to 1 sales ratio.

You see it as a win . . . the studios see it as a loss - from both a BD buying public and as a loss of profit for the BD studios who participated in the BOGO sale.

But we will not take away your victory as according to Nielsen . . . God Forbid.

I mean 10 months since CES 2007 and the SI and YTD numbers are the same. So BD has made no progress in the last 10 months. Pitiful if you ask me.

Ahh, the rdjam perspective... as much as we have heard that HD DVD is prematurely dead, how many times have you said that BD is dead now?Actually, none - compared to BD always calling HD DVD dead every month or so. I would not be so arrogant as to say BD is already dead, only that it *should* be.

What I have said is that the orchestra is warming up to play "Taps" for Bluray. That means the beginning of the end for Bluray.

Yeah, fire sales work well to shift old inventory. Let us know when/if the gen 3 players are selling at Walmart and for how much.Walmart alone has about 150,000 of the A2s to sell at this price, and CC is said to be matching the prices. BB won't be far between.

And it is *ironic* that you would attempt to make the A2 sound obsolete, when it has exactly the same performance and features as the A3 (which is simply a more cheaply made version of the A2). The A3 could easily be sold for this price or less, once the A2s are sold out.

I say *ironic* since it is actually the current BD players that will all be obsolete...

Actually, the correct term is failed again to match. And the largest selling HD DVD ever failed to match a few titles on sale price for BD. Actually, I said *MATCHED* and that is exactly what I meant. a 2% difference is not a significant lead. The sales of BD were supposed to be 2 to 1 to HD DVD - yet the actuals for this week were almost identical. That's what I mean by "matched"

This is due to the lack of install base for HD DVD relative to BD..."installed base", right? Anyhoo, it seems pretty obvious that the installed base of HD DVD standalone players has increased substantially, based on how the sales of HD DVD titles have been catching up with Bluray over the last 8 weeks...

They seem to be loving BD+ and have announced Man on Fire for January 8. Should be a good month with a number of other BD exclusives, including New Line pseudo exclusives do to the HD DVD region code oversight... So when you ask for whom the bell tolls...Stay tuned for interesting Fox news, then...

If you sell it as an upconverting player that plays ALL SD DVDs and also HD DVDs, then $199 is not to much to ask. We will see if it sells. My bet is Walmart has done some research.

That bet would be safe as houses.

The $200 Toshiba has to be a painful reality to other manufacturers like Venturer.

In the same vein as this statement: "I doubt you'll see a PS3 drop below the $400 drop, it would kill other CEM support of BD which it probably is already challenging.", the $200 Toshiba is closing the door to opportunity for anyone other than Toshiba to make reasonable player sales.

My assumption is that the $200 players are simply clearing stock so that the 3rd gen can take its place back at the 'usual price' - if not, I can't imagine any success in the player market for anyone other than Toshiba. $149 Venturer players and $399/$499 dual format players would fit quite nicely around the $199 and $299 Toshiba HD DVD players.

If its true it doesn't cost a lot more to make a dual format player than a Blu-ray only one, thats lot of pressure on Blu-ray CE makers to go dual format......

Why is the standalone player market that dizzyingly important? Because people that buy a piece of hardware that is designed and intended to play movies on will tend to buy movies to go along with it? :rolleyes:

Because of the focus on attach rates, which may go down for HD DVD if they sell a lot of these players and people realize that discs cost twice as much as SD versions and they can't play Blu-ray Hi Definition discs on their players.
Silly goose, HD DVD prices can go do overnight if retailers want them too. ;)

What about a Wal-Mart buy one get one free offer on HD DVDs on Black Friday? :D :D :D

No you're correct.
I think low priced players is a good start/strategy but I still believe a split HDM movie catalog and higher priced discs will still deter people from making a long term commitment to a single format player. Most people really don't know what studios most movie come from.

All they need to see is critical mass of titles on the shelf to support a impulse purchase decision and then *gasp* they have taken the red pill.

Hmm, lets see..... about 100 or so out of the 300 or more available HD DVD titles on the shelf should do that.

Most people really don't know what studios most movie come from.

All they need to see is critical mass of titles on the shelf to support a impulse purchase decision and then *gasp* they have taken the red pill.

Hmm, lets see..... about 100 or so out of the 300 or more available HD DVD titles on the shelf should do that.

Kosty, I think Paramount and Universal may have a "sale". It wouldn't surprise me if WB joins in. I think BD should be VERY worried. And from the posts I am reading...they are. 2001 in HD DVD is fantastic

I think that this is the beginning of the end for BD now. The band is warming up to play Taps...

$198 players at Walmart, and now Circuit City is matching the price. Best Buy will be next. There are likely going to be hundreds of thousands of players sold this month - god knows how much by January.

HD DVD matched Bluray sales this week, even though Bluray had their BD BOGOF 2 for 1 sale. Bluray's lead is definitely shot to hell.

And what's up with Fox in January? hmmm...

You do realise how uttely ridiculous you guys sound, you are aware of that, right?

Many of you guys posting in this thread have credibilty that is absolutely shot to pieces!

I realise the utter humiliation you faced when Transformers didn't win the week must hurt, but come on, whats with all the FUD clogging this forum, what happened to the science?

This place is like comedy central, and it's pretty scary many of you are totally unaware of this fact, lol.

You do realise how uttely ridiculous you guys sound, you are aware of that, right?

Many of you guys posting in this thread have credibilty that is absolutely shot to pieces?

I realise the utter humiliation you faced when Transformers didn't win the week must hurt, but come on, whats with all the FUD clogging this forum, what happened to the science?

This place is like comedy central, and it's pretty scary many of you are totally unaware of this fact, lol.

What i see as humiliating is that in order to compete with HD DVD Transformers week, Blu-ray had to give a title away for every one they sold, and STILL they only won by 2%. That's comedy if you ask me.

What i see as humiliating is that in order to compete with HD DVD Transformers week, Blu-ray had to give a title away for every one they sold, and STILL they only won by 2%. That's comedy if you ask me.

Once again the spin is untrue, the sale did not apply to all movies, in all stores, on Amazon for example it was just Disney movies. Still shouldn't HD-DVD's biggest ever movie, which had all of HD-DVD's hopes heaped upon it, at least win it's opening week?

Regardless, some of the posts in this thread are comedy gold, you can see some HD-DVD supporters are hurting bad, they aren't even claiming this will be a tough fight, rather they are lashing out with wild 'Writings on the wall for Blu-ray' FUD, making themselves look like fools, once again.

I thought I'd seen it all, I truly believed some of the fud meisters would take a step back and realise how they are dooing a disservice to more level headed HD-DVD owners.

Frankly these guys are a joke and embarrasment to this forum and the HD-DVD format.

Once again the spin is untrue, the sale did not apply to all movies, in all stores, on Amazon for example it was just Disney movies. Still shouldn't HD-DVD's biggest ever movie, which had all of HD-DVD's hopes heaped upon it, at least win it's opening week?

So then what percentage of Blu-ray's sales were in fact BOGO sales? Obviously not all of them were....no one would think that, of course (so obvious that I didn't feel I needed to spell it out). If BOGO sales were not included, Blu-ray most certainly would have lost that week. That fact is undeniable. Obviously BOGO sales amounted to more than 2%. To think otherwise would be comical.

In your attempt to accuse HD DVD people here of spinning Blu-ray's win that week, why don't you acknowledge that by denying the importance of BOGO sales in that win that you are doing some serious spinning yourself?

EDIT: we are getting off topic. Let's get back to discussing the inportance of WalMart players and the Holiday season

Yes, I can imagine a Universal-Paramount sale but so far no evidence. We did have some decent $19.95 sales at Best Buy Canada over the summer (don't ask but locally that's as good as 2 for 1).

I'd like to see some re-alignment of pricing, frankly: $40 for a new title is stupid and, when the sales are over, it goes into "catalog" stock at that price ensuring it will never make it through the check-out line.

New, and premium issues, ok with $25 to $40 pricing, depending in street vs retail. But everything else needs to slide down a notch so that John Wayne re-issues don't carry MSRPs of $29. :rolleyes:

To the point of the thread title: Wal-Mart, and now Circuit City, are laying the ground for HD DVD player expectations at $199 in two segments: mainstream department stores and dedicated electronic retailers. Prices never go UP for electronics, do they?

I doubt very much if the Blu-ray team is really prepared for this: they have some very fine players and none of them with an MSRP less than $499. Even the ballyhooed non-backwards-compatible 40 GB PS3 which also happens to play Blu-ray movies is $399.

What are they planning for CES 2008 which sets the product road-map for the next year? By all reports (to date) profile 1.1 players which enable some of the cooler (aka catch-up) features will be announced, but not available till after CES. Without players in the field, studios will not be rushing movies to market and will be faced with a terrible choice: do they now consider releasing THREE hidef formats where 2 are Blu-ray but this sub-format only play on a few hundred or few thousand players? Or do they wait till fall 2008 for 1.1 features on disc?

If HD DVD manages to capture Wal-Mart and some piece of the major electronic retailers like Circuit City, then Blu-ray in January will be on life-support. For all of its "coming advantages", they still won't be in market to consumers till much later in 2008.

Retail doesn't stop in Q1 ... it merely slows down. Does Blu-ray plan to bounce back with $199 players in Feb? What if Venturer and Insignia and others arrive by then at $149 for HD DVD? Or lower? PS3 becomes irrelevant to promoting Blu-ray in this market.

What about Q2? Q3? Will dual format players come to market under the cost of Blu-ray? How is that possible if Blu-ray can't come down?

And how, on earth, do you keep Disney and Fox exclusive during this blood-bath even -- to keep perspective -- disc sales remain modest relative to DVD? (I have only one word of caution if that gives anyone comfort: the Apple ][+ out sold the Mac for nearly a decade into the early 1990s; and DOS beat out both for a few years past that. Sometimes -- and in the spirit of Hallowe'en I implore you -- it's good to discern between reality and the walking dead.)

So then what percentage of Blu-ray's sales were in fact BOGO sales? Obviously not all of them were....no one would think that, of course (so obvious that I didn't feel I needed to spell it out). If BOGO sales were not included, Blu-ray most certainly would have lost that week. That fact is undeniable. Obviously BOGO sales amounted to more than 2%. To think otherwise would be comical.

In your attempt to accuse HD DVD people here of spinning Blu-ray's win that week, why don't you acknowledge that by denying the importance of BOGO sales in that win that you are doing some serious spinning yourself?

Of course they would have lost the week, no one would deny that, I bought 6 titles, 4 in the BOGO deal.

The point is the BOGO cost the BDA less than $5m, Transformers and a handfull of other titles cost HD-DVD $150m for 18 months.

Sony could have brought forward Spiderman, Disney Ratatouile/Cars, Fox Simpsons/Diehard etc. but if a relatively cheap BOGO deal can counter HD-DVD's biggest hitter in Transformers, and leave the way clear for a dozen or so Blu-ray blockbusters this Q4, why not.

I rest my case. Let's move on.

Yes, I can imagine a Universal-Paramount sale but so far no evidence. We did have some decent $19.95 sales at Best Buy Canada over the summer (don't ask but locally that's as good as 2 for 1).

I'd like to see some re-alignment of pricing, frankly: $40 for a new title is stupid and, when the sales are over, it goes into "catalog" stock at that price ensuring it will never make it through the check-out line.

New, and premium issues, ok with $25 to $40 pricing, depending in street vs retail. But everything else needs to slide down a notch so that John Wayne re-issues don't carry MSRPs of $29. :rolleyes:

To the point of the thread title: Wal-Mart, and now Circuit City, are laying the ground for HD DVD player expectations at $199 in two segments: mainstream department stores and dedicated electronic retailers. Prices never go UP for electronics, do they?

I doubt very much if the Blu-ray team is really prepared for this: they have some very fine players and none of them with an MSRP less than $499. Even the ballyhooed non-backwards-compatible 40 GB PS3 which also happens to play Blu-ray movies is $399.

What are they planning for CES 2008 which sets the product road-map for the next year? By all reports (to date) profile 1.1 players which enable some of the cooler (aka catch-up) features will be announced, but not available till after CES. Without players in the field, studios will not be rushing movies to market and will be faced with a terrible choice: do they now consider releasing THREE hidef formats where 2 are Blu-ray but this sub-format only play on a few hundred or few thousand players? Or do they wait till fall 2008 for 1.1 features on disc?

If HD DVD manages to capture Wal-Mart and some piece of the major electronic retailers like Circuit City, then Blu-ray in January will be on life-support. For all of its "coming advantages", they still won't be in market to consumers till much later in 2008.

Retail doesn't stop in Q1 ... it merely slows down. Does Blu-ray plan to bounce back with $199 players in Feb? What if Venturer and Insignia and others arrive by then at $149 for HD DVD? Or lower? PS3 becomes irrelevant to promoting Blu-ray in this market.

What about Q2? Q3? Will dual format players come to market under the cost of Blu-ray? How is that possible if Blu-ray can't come down?

And how, on earth, do you keep Disney and Fox exclusive during this blood-bath even -- to keep perspective -- disc sales remain modest relative to DVD? (I have only one word of caution if that gives anyone comfort: the Apple ][+ out sold the Mac for nearly a decade into the early 1990s; and DOS beat out both for a few years past that. Sometimes -- and in the spirit of Hallowe'en I implore you -- it's good to discern between reality and the walking dead.)


The delusion is staggering, Blu-ray on life support in January, exactly what planet are you living on!?

It's not only HD-DVD that can reduce prices, Blu-ray will also come down, it's reported the Sony S300 will be $299 very soon, a new Sharp will have an RRP of $399, so will no doubt be discounted even lower and so on.

HD-DVD's biggest price advantage was earlier in the format war, these days no more than a few weeks will go by with HD-DVD having a $200 price advantage before it's countered.

It's been like this for months now.

Player price alone hasn't come close to being the deciding factor yet, if ever.

The delusion is staggering, Blu-ray on life support in January, exactly what planet are you living on!?

It's not only HD-DVD that can reduce prices, Blu-rays will also come down, it's reported the Sony S300 will be $299 very soon, a new Sharp will have an RRP of $399, so will no doubt be discounted even lower.

HD-DVD's biggest price advantage was earlier in the format war, these days no more than a few weeks will go by with HD-DVD having a $200 price advantage before it's countered.

It's been like this for months now.

Player price alone hasn't come close to be the deciding factor yet, if ever.

Who's deluding who?
$299-$198=$101 34% marginal difference
$399-$198=$201 50% marginal difference

and that's not including any further HD DVD price reductions.

The delusion is staggering, Blu-ray on life support in January, exactly what planet are you living on!?

It's not only HD-DVD that can reduce prices, Blu-ray will also come down, it's reported the Sony S300 will be $299 very soon, a new Sharp will have an RRP of $399, so will no doubt be discounted even lower and so on.

HD-DVD's biggest price advantage was earlier in the format war, these days no more than a few weeks will go by with HD-DVD having a $200 price advantage before it's countered.

It's been like this for months now.

Player price alone hasn't come close to being the deciding factor yet, if ever.

For this holiday season?

Who's deluding who?
$299-$198=$101 34% marginal difference
$399-$198=$201 50% marginal difference


HD-DVD's had an even larger price advantage since the inception of this format war, yet Blu-ray has closed a 70-30+ hardware lead for HD-DVD to around 55-45 in recent months.

Price was a bigger issue when we were talking $1000+, but when it's $299, or a PS3 for $399, and you require a relatively expensive HDTV to view them on, the price advantage in neither here nor there.

It's desirable but not crucial.

JAG1977:

How much are you being paid to spread such utter nonsense?

Surely you would not post such ridiculous statements without some compensation.
fafner

Yeah, fire sales work well to shift old inventory.

Exactly, look what it did for BD software last week.:D

While I believe they will sell a lot of players how many I am unsure. One thing for sure we will find out what the magic price point is.:)

For this holiday season?

$299 Blu-ray player, yes.

Well if you are REALLY interested in returns . . . you should take comfort that BD will experience almost no returns . . .

Got to have a sale before a return.;)

Another Zinger. LOL!

$299 Blu-ray player, yes.

Fair. We will see. But it better be a 1.1 player or 2.0 or NO comparison.

JAG1977:

How much are you being paid to spread such utter nonsense?

Surely you would not post such ridiculous statements without some compensation.
fafner

I take it you have glossed over the utter nonsense in this thread posted by the usual HD-DVD suspects.

You think poster's are being perfectly reasonable stating Blu-ray will be on life support by January, and so on and so forth?

Or is it just strange to see a Blu-ray owner posting in what is effectively a HD-DVD forum?

I wouldn't mind if they stated this player could give HD-DVD a fighting chance, fair enough, but their statements go WAY beyond that to the point of delussion.

Still shouldn't HD-DVD's biggest ever movie, which had all of HD-DVD's hopes heaped upon it, at least win it's opening week?


If you seriously think that ALL of HD DVD's hopes were tied up in a single movie, then you really don't understand the industry at all.

In case you didn't notice, quite a few of the potential mega-hits for 2008 are from HD exclusive studios. Add in a few hundred thousand sub-$200 stand alone sales between now and the end of the year and things look downright Hopeful for HD DVD at the start of 2008.

Things should get even better throughout the year for HD especially since there doesn't appear to be even a sub-$300 Blu Ray box on the drawing board.

Of course the BDA could try a few more "Buy one get one giveaways" to continue attempting to shore up their numbers with each release but frankly there are only so many copies of POTC that I think each Blu-Ray owner can buy before that well runs dry for the BDA.

How much effect do people really think the $198 player to have? Seemingly unrealistic expectations all around...

$299 Blu-ray player, yes.

And you have this bit of news directly from whom?

Or is it just some kind of BF deal from a single merchant clearing out 1.0 spec'd BD-P1000's?

To many friends of mine who don't have a High Def player, the effect will be great. None of them would think twice about paying under $200 for one, especially knowing that they are getting an upconverting DVD player as well.

And you have this bit of news directly from whom?

Or is it just some kind of BF deal from a single merchant clearing out 1.0 spec'd BD-P1000's?


It's expected on the Sony player as the PS3 is now down to $399 and will likely be 1.1 compatible, so Sony's BD300 at $399 would be a hard sell, don't you think?

Just as Toshiba can cut $100 off the price of a budget player for Q4, so can the Blu-ray side.

Isn't that perfectly reasonable and what always happens with electronic's hardware?

Let's face it, how long did we here there would be zero price cuts on PS3, or Blu-ray player's would not dip below $600, $500, $400, take your pick, this year.

To many friends of mine who don't have a High Def player, the effect will be great. None of them would think twice about paying under $200 for one, especially knowing that they are getting an upconverting DVD player as well.
Wouldn't think twice? What doubts were they having about the current prices?

To many friends of mine who don't have a High Def player, the effect will be great. None of them would think twice about paying under $200 for one, especially knowing that they are getting an upconverting DVD player as well.

+1 and Blu-ray only supporters should be concerned. If your not a PS3 gamer come on over to the "dark side." You can't beat the price for bi -format.

How much effect do people really think the $198 player to have? Seemingly unrealistic expectations all around...

I worked as a Retail manager for enough years to know what the break points are for electronics sales.

At $199, the A2 should frankly sell as many units in three months as the entire product line has all year or roughly 1 million units per year.

Double that rate again once the price hits $149.

Double it again once the $99 price point is crossed.

The unrealistic expectation is that Blu-Ray will continue to lead in media sales for more than 3-4 months more unless they manage to put a dedicated media player out on the shelves at a competitive price. Fail to do that, and it will be "Betamax Part:2".

If they do decide to toss out "entry level"m $200 Blu players, then this whole "war" will just spin 'round and 'round until the dual format players break the $100-$150 price range at which point format becomes moot and both get to stick around until the "Super-HD DVD (1440p+) " formats arrive on the scene and make both HD and Blu part of media history.

Of course they would have lost the week, no one would deny that, I bought 6 titles, 4 in the BOGO deal.

The point is the BOGO cost the BDA less than $5m, Transformers and a handfull of other titles cost HD-DVD $150m for 18 months.

Sony could have brought forward Spiderman, Disney Ratatouile/Cars, Fox Simpsons/Diehard etc. but if a relatively cheap BOGO deal can counter HD-DVD's biggest hitter in Transformers, and leave the way clear for a dozen or so Blu-ray blockbusters this Q4, why not.

DieHard 4 was a box office flop. And The Simpsons movie couldn't even break the $200 million mark, in fact no Fox title has even come close this summer. No wonder they're releasing 4 year old crap like Man on Fire since they had no blockbusters to speak of this past summer.

As I mentioned in another thread if HDDVD closes the sales gap significantly by Jan. 08, don't count on Paramount ever coming back to BluRay, 150 million or not. You should be more worried about keeping Warners than dreaming of a Paramount return. Appreciate what you have at this moment, not what you don't have and may never get back.

It's expected on the Sony player as the PS3 is now down to $399 and will likely be 1.1 compatible, so Sony's BD300 at $399 would be a hard sell, don't you think?

Just as Toshiba can cut $100 off the price of a budget player for Q4, so can the Blu-ray side.

Isn't that perfectly reasonable and what always happens with electronic's hardware?

Let's face it, how long did we here there would be zero price cuts on PS3, or Blu-ray player's would not dip below $600, $500, $400, take your pick, this year.

When my friends heard there was going to be a $399 PS3, they were very interested.

When they heard that that same $399 PS3 would not be backwards compatible with PS2 games, they ALL said fuggetaboutit.

We will see how much of an effect it will have. I believe it will have a major effect more because of who is selling it, than just the low price. WalMart is serious about HD now and they don't take prisoners or sell products that cost twice as much for the same thing for long.

To dismiss this change by WalMart is to admit you don't have a clue what your talking about and look like a fool doing it. The only thing that can match this news is when WB goes exclusive after the first of the month.:)

How much effect do people really think the $198 player to have? Seemingly unrealistic expectations all around...

Experts and analysts have always stated that $200 would be the critical price point in this format war and for HDM in general.

I doubt you'll see a PS3 drop below the $400 drop, it would kill other CEM support of BD which it probably is already challenging. $200 is a good price, I think BD has to get a 1.1 player down to $300 if they want to sell a lot of players.
And not doing it may kill the PS3 and BD with it. I believe that Sony understands their situation and has a plan to deal with it. That plan will have to include further price drops and better games. The wild card in all of this is studio support. BD should have had a quick victory, but now it most likely won't ever outright kill HD DVD. Companies like Paramount and WB ignored what they thought was the best and future format because it seemed that BD would be victorious in short order. Now that it hasn't happened Paramount has turned and it wouldn't be surprising if WB followed them.

Why is the standalone player market that dizzyingly important?

For the same reason attach rate is so important.

It's expected on the Sony player as the PS3 is now down to $399 and will likely be 1.1 compatible, so Sony's BD300 at $399 would be a hard sell, don't you think?



However, the $399 PS3 is going to be in seriously short supply as Sony has already stated that the bulk of PS3 production is going towards the more expensive model at least until the end of the year.

With that in mind, Sony may plan to coast through Q4 '07 with the low end Blu Players staying at $399 list.

Just as Toshiba can cut $100 off the price of a budget player for Q4, so can the Blu-ray side.

Toshiba didn't just post a 700+ million dollar loss on their players like Sony just did for their PS3s.

The amount of money Sony bled for that game console nearly wiped out every bit of profit earned by all their other entertainment resources.

Frankly, Sony can't afford to go much further into the hole chasing the "Blu Rabbit" before their stockholders are going to pull the plug.

Perhaps one of the other CE manufacturers on the BD side might be convinced to slash a vein and take one for the "team" or perhaps not.

I suspect we shall see just how "loyal" the various members of the BDA are in the coming months...

However, the $399 PS3 is going to be in seriously short supply as they have already stated that the bulk of PS3 production is going towards the more expensive model at least until the end of the year.

With that in mind, Sony may plan to coast through Q4 '07 with the low end Blu Players staying at $399 list.



Toshiba didn't just post a 700+ million dollar loss on their players like Sony just did for their PS3s.

The amount of money Sony bled for that game console nearly wiped out every bit of profit earned by all their other entertainment resources.

Frankly, Sony can't afford to go much further into the hole chasing the "Blu Rabbit" before their stockholders are going to pull the plug.

Perhaps one of the other CE manufacturers on the BD side might be convinced to slash a vein and take one for the "team" or perhaps not.

I suspect we shall see just how "loyal" the various members of the BDA are in the coming months...
I'm not sure about that. Sony stands to gain hundreds of millions of dollars if BD succeeds. Losing a few billion is nothing in that game.

I am not sure if any of the standalone BD vendors are even considering profile 1.1 and up players!..

If someone releases one will you not post on this forum for a month??? How about a year???


Panasonic DMP BD 30K Release date early November (2007).

1st link is PDF of comparison between the 10k and 30k
2nd link is brochure


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92896&d=1193264653

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92897&d=1193265131

It's expected on the Sony player as the PS3 is now down to $399 and will likely be 1.1 compatible, so Sony's BD300 at $399 would be a hard sell, don't you think?

Just as Toshiba can cut $100 off the price of a budget player for Q4, so can the Blu-ray side.

Isn't that perfectly reasonable and what always happens with electronic's hardware?

Let's face it, how long did we here there would be zero price cuts on PS3, or Blu-ray player's would not dip below $600, $500, $400, take your pick, this year.

The nation's largest retailer is now selling stacks of HD DVD players for $198. Of the 2 I was at this weekend, one had ZERO BR stand-alones and the other had the only Sony BD300 for $429 (which is far bettter than the BB who is selling it for $499) - So much for that $399 price you mentioned.

What do you think people are going to buy? The $198 player on the nice end-cap, or the $429 player hidden in the back?

BTW, unless BR comes up with something fast, they will miss the holiday season. We know the PS3 won't come down anymore, the $399 version isn't even out yet. And what about those Venturer players will the discount price really be $149?

I'm not sure about that. Sony stands to gain hundreds of millions of dollars if BD succeeds. Losing a few billion is nothing in that game.

Ignoring that the logic of "Losing Billions to make a few hundred million" is a bit backwards... ;)


The fact that their stock has been tanking for the past several months lends weight to my reasoning.

In a world of "Day Traders" and the current short sighted mindsets behind much of the money out there right now

the: "I'll gladly pay you dividends in 2009, for a balance sheet covered in Red today" mentality

...may not cut it for much longer.

If someone releases one will you not post on this forum for a month??? How about a year???


Panasonic DMP BD 30K Release date early November (2007).

1st link is PDF of comparison between the 10k and 30k
2nd link is brochure


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92896&d=1193264653

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92897&d=1193265131

I am sure they will sell hundreds...just like the other Blu-Ray stand-alone players. Seriously, if you are a BR fan why would you buy one? Just get the PS3.

At $199, the A2 should frankly sell as many units in three months as the entire product line has all year or roughly 1 million units per year.
How many A2s are going to be available to be purchased, and whats the starting reference for sales?


The unrealistic expectation is that Blu-Ray will continue to lead in media sales for more than 3-4 months more unless they manage to put a dedicated media player out on the shelves at a competitive price. Fail to do that, and it will be "Betamax Part:2".
So, Blu-ray, which has been doubling HD-DVD all year, has not managed to make a knockout blow, but HD-DVD, which presumably might (though unlikely) draw parity or slightly ahead of Blu-ray, will be able to do this?

If they do decide to toss out "entry level"m $200 Blu players, then this whole "war" will just spin 'round and 'round until the dual format players break the $100-$150 price range at which point format becomes moot and both get to stick around until the "Super-HD DVD (1440p+) " formats arrive on the scene and make both HD and Blu part of media history.
So Blu-ray cannot ever win? HD-DVD has opportunities to kill it, but not vice-versa.


This is an example of great, unbiased thinking.

Another HDDVD thread where the BD fanboys can't leave well enough alone. Added to my ignore list: Phloyd, JAG1977.

I am a solid HDDVD supporter and only plan to buy into BD on two conditions, if it survives, and I buy a fully functional dual format player.

This $198 sale is spur huge sales for HDDVD and will be a force to reckon with this xmas season.

Seriously, if you are a BR fan why would you buy one? Just get the PS3.

I all ready have a PS3, but thanks for caring.

So Blu-ray cannot ever win? HD-DVD has opportunities to kill it, but not vice-versa.


This is an example of great, unbiased thinking.

Blu-ray has a chance to win. All they need is a sub-$200 player with FULL internet connectivity and web-based interactivity with TRUE Picture-in-picture features.

Oh, and Warner needs to go Blu-exclusive too.

I'm not sure about that. Sony stands to gain hundreds of millions of dollars if BD succeeds. Losing a few billion is nothing in that game.

gain 100's of millions but losing a few billion. Was this intended to be funny, because it is!

Because if I were to make a list of things thats going to win this format, "true" PiP and online functions would be top of the list.

gain 100's of millions but losing a few billion. Was this intended to be funny, because it is!

It was a typo, but it was funny. Sounds like the way I do things.:(

The $399.00 PS3 will be as rare as the 20 gig was, if not more so. In other words, it will be a miracle if you can find one. Even Sony is saying it will be in short supply. The old bait and switch will be in full force this holiday season.

So Blu-ray cannot ever win? HD-DVD has opportunities to kill it, but not vice-versa.
Exactly right. HD DVD has had the stronger hand from the beginning with lower disk and player manufacturing costs. The BDA has attempted to prevail with their higher prices via closed door deals and marketing. It should come as no surprise that this strategy can't work in the long term. In a capitalist market, lower cost equals more efficiency and better sales. Walmart 101:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v308/mikey_mike777/walmart1.jpg

I all ready have a PS3, but thanks for caring.

So, do I. You gotta feel sorry for those suckers who bought BR stand-alones.

Exactly, look what it did for BD software last week.:D

While I believe they will sell a lot of players how many I am unsure. One thing for sure we will find out what the magic price point is.:)

The price on the Disney discs was temporarily discounted as a promotion.

The Walmart price appears to be the price to clear the inventory of A2's and will be the price until they are all sold.

Much like initial the price reduction on the PS3 - largely to clear inventory of a discontinued SKU.

That said, it will have the effect of putting 'inexpensive' HD DVD players into a number of homes... Hard to say how many there are - quite a few I imagine based on Toshiba's expectations of sales this year which never happened...

So, do I. You gotta feel sorry for those suckers who bought BR stand-alones.

No need to feel sorry for me, I love my BD player.

You may feel sorry for me for buying an A1 which pretty much sits unused (anyone wanna buy an A1?)...

Because if I were to make a list of things thats going to win this format, "true" PiP and online functions would be top of the list.

So do you buy the any of the HUGE percentage of HD DVDs that don't have online functions? It must suck to have only a handful of titles that satisfy the top of your requirements list.

I am going to try to nudge this thread back closer to the intended topic.

Walmart has HDM players for $198. They want to dominate HD and electronics sales.

What are BB, CC and everyone else going to do to compete? Surely Target will have to sell something else besides the $400 player they have now.

Think about it. Looking through the Sunday flyers you see one ad for a next generation HD player for $398. Then you see an ad for a next generation HD player for $198 at Walmart. Which store are you going to go to?

Exactly right. HD DVD has had the stronger hand from the beginning with lower disk and player manufacturing costs. The BDA has attempted to prevail with their higher prices via closed door deals and marketing. It should come as no surprise that this strategy can't work in the long term. In a capitalist market, lower cost equals more efficiency and better sales. Walmart 101:
Yes. You're right. My bad. I definitely agree the BDA strategy is as obviously failing as the HD-DVD PRG strategy is succeeding.

Furthermore, the impact of the A2 this holiday season will ripple throughout the marketplace, being the only new actor in the equation. The price-advantage can never be assauged by the BDA, and the shift along the supply & demand curve will be explosive and unstoppable. There are no other factors at work. BR has no true advantages. Its all so clear. $198 = victory. End of story.

HD-DVD's had an even larger price advantage since the inception of this format war, yet Blu-ray has closed a 70-30+ hardware lead for HD-DVD to around 55-45 in recent months.

Price was a bigger issue when we were talking $1000+, but when it's $299, or a PS3 for $399, and you require a relatively expensive HDTV to view them on, the price advantage in neither here nor there.

It's desirable but not crucial.

Expect this statistic to change dramatically the next few months with the A2 at $199!

Walmart has HDM players for $198. They want to dominate HD and electronics sales.


Or they are clearing out Toshiba's stock of discontinued players.

The A3 apparently becomes available at Amazon in a few days.

Who of the major retailers would want to stock both the A2 and A3?

Stock liquidation is the most sensible answer to why Walmart has these players at these prices.

You do realise how uttely ridiculous you guys sound...

Many of you guys posting in this thread have credibilty that is absolutely shot to pieces!

I realise the utter humiliation you faced...SUre dude... don't get so emotional, it makes you sound worried...

The Walmart price appears to be the price to clear the inventory of A2's and will be the price until they are all sold.



What? Walmart said ther is NO LIMIT to their supply. THe 2 stores by me have 20+ players on the end-cap alone. So people have reported over 40 per store.

Again, Walmart was asked if there was a limit and they said NO. Maybe some day this will get through to you. Please read the news stories again...


“We reduced our HD DVD Toshiba player, the generation-two, to $198 earlier in the week,” Wal-Mart spokeswoman Melissa O’Brien confirmed. “It’s happening now, and that’s really all I can tell you. We don’t give any information on what we’re planning to do for the holidays. We know HD DVD and Blu-ray are going to be popular items this holiday season for some of our customers. … They will be more popular this year than they were in previous years.”

O’Brien said rumors that each Wal-Mart store would stock only 18 units of the Toshiba player were false. “There are no limited quantities for stores or purchases.”

If the cut-rate Toshiba HD DVD players prove especially popular, Wal-Mart’s move could also set up a holiday-season retail showdown with Best Buy (BBY), Circuit City (CC) and others who rely on popular items to lure shoppers into stores. Those other retailers could feel pressure to stock their own low-cost HD-DVD players to drive store traffic.

With Walmart selling 40 percent of the disks sold in this country, how long do you think it will take them to get the studios to lower their prices on HDM's?

I bet it won't take long. WalMart just makes a few threats about dvd and suddenly HDM prices will start coming down fast. They are very good at this tactic and use it on every product they sell. HDM will not be any different.

What? Walmart said ther is NO LIMIT to their supply.

Well, that is a physical impossibility.

Are you saying that Toshiba is still making A2s even with the A3 being made?

Does that make any sense to you?

I don't doubt that there are thousands of unsold A2s. A seemingly endless supply. How many did Toshiba say they would sell and how many did they sell? That is a lot of surplus players to unload for dirt cheap.

The delusion is staggering...

...Player price alone hasn't come close to being the deciding factor yet, if ever.Keep telling yourself that...

“There are no limited quantities for stores or purchases.”


That just means they won't stop you from buying more than one. You can buy their whole pile if you want.

Many cheap prices have a per customer limit. They are saying this does not.

It does not mean that they have an infinite supply of the players.

I am going to try to nudge this thread back closer to the intended topic.
Oh, sorry. The original post doesn't read as truly wanting to know how the retail sector is going to react. I don't think they care about the market, and certainly not a need to compete against the WM/A2.

Ultimately they're going to implement plans asked upon them to do by the BDA/HD-DVD PRG. So asking what retailers are going to do is asking what the promotion groups are going to do, and basically, your OP reads as what are the BDA going to do to counter the A2. Lowering the prices of standalones, or the PS3, has nothing to do with retailers.

So, Blu-ray, which has been doubling HD-DVD all year, has not managed to make a knockout blow, but HD-DVD, which presumably might (though unlikely) draw parity or slightly ahead of Blu-ray, will be able to do this?


The past year has shown that 98% of consumers will not spend $400+ for an HD media player. Even the majority of the "2 million Blu-Ray" players sold are not used for media to any significant degree.

If the BDA does not become competitive with their players pricing by Q2 of '08 you will see the weekly sales figures invert, and if the HD DVD format begins gaining momentum it will be hard for the BDA to re-crash the party.

Based on the fact that current DVD manufacturing facilities can be converted to HD DVD production at very little cost (compared to Blu-Ray requiring whole new facilities) and that HD DVDs are less expensive than Blu discs to produce, a market lead by HD could very well swing more studios away from the BDA and into being neutral or exclusive to HD.

That would spell disaster for Blu-Ray.

Now the BDA can counter by throwing even more money into the fight, (more subsidies, slashing player prices, etc.) and that can potentially even things up but I don't know if they will (Sony has been bled pretty badly already) and they may continue to pin their hopes on the idea that the overall PS3 market may come around to the "Blu side of the Force" and save them.

But barring either of those two events happening, Blu-Ray will either very likely become a footnote in the history of media or the next "Laserdisc".


So Blu-ray cannot ever win? HD-DVD has opportunities to kill it, but not vice-versa.


There are quite a few scenarios that I can think of where Blu-Ray could "win"..

- Blu-Ray can "win" if they were to announce a $200 dedicated Blu player between now and Nov. 15th, so long as it was available in stores by Dec. 1st '07. [Probability: nil]

- Blu-Ray can "win" if Wal*mart's marketing people were wrong and the $198 HD DVD players just gather dust on their shelves [probability: low; but possible].

- Blu-Ray can "win" if they choose to write-off about 4 billion dollars and mail about 10 million Blu-Ray players to middle and upper class families across the US and Canada. [Probability: zero]

- Blu-Ray can "win" if they manage to convince Warner Bros. to go Blu-Ray exclusive. [probability: low; but possible]

- Blu-Ray could "win" if there were a huge marketing disaster on the HD side of things, causing public opinion to swing strongly away from that format. [Probability:low; but possible]

...or any number of additional, unpredictable events which have a small but finite chance to occur and alter the existing market conditions.


This is an example of great, unbiased thinking.

Sarcasm aside, what it it is an example of is an analysis of the probable market trends for the next year from one man based upon experience (over a decade in retail management), market conditions, and the observations of members of the target market for the product.

Personally, even though I own an A1, I would have preferred that Blu-Ray have been the first one to have dropped the price of a player to below $200, as their format ultimately has greater potential in many areas over HD DVD, just as the Betamax had greater resolution over VHS.

However, history has begun to repeat itself and this "format war" has begun to turn just as it did in the early 80's (Sony refusing to match prices with the "inferior" VHS format) with the Beta/VHS "conflict".

...and since those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, things will likely play out the exact same way unless Sony has an epiphany and introduces a sub-$200 competitor.

Keep telling yourself that...

Have you been able to demonstrate any effect of player price in the software sales?

As I recall, it was supposed to kick in back in May and we are still waiting.

There have only been two factors that have sold software titles in significant numbers.

First is hot titles. Second is software pricing.

We saw both last week. We have never seen player price have any demonstrable effect.

I know firesale player pricing is all HD DVD has going for it, but it really seems to be a complete failure with respect to selling movies, which is where the actual revenues are generated for these formats.

Me, I am riding this HD DVD thing to the end. ;)

+1

I don't doubt that there are thousands of unsold A2s. A seemingly endless supply.

Actually there might be tens of thousands in store RIGHT NOW. 20 - 50 per store. I have seen them myself. Other have too and there are plenty of pics I am sure Toshiba is still making them if they promised and endless supply.

I think you are in denial. Let's recap. Walmart has decided to sell an HD DVD player for $198. They are putting them on endcaps with a big sign above them. There is NO LIMIT to their supply. They are the nation's largest retailer and the larger seller of DVDs.

Or they are clearing out Toshiba's stock of discontinued players.

The A3 apparently becomes available at Amazon in a few days.

Who of the major retailers would want to stock both the A2 and A3?

Stock liquidation is the most sensible answer to why Walmart has these players at these prices.

WalMart!

Do you really think it will be long before the A3 is going for the same price as the A2? WalMart does nothing on a whim. This has been in planning for months. Why do you think they will not carry the Venturer? They don't need to. They will have a named brand player to sell and all they can stock as well. Pretty smart on their part!

What? Walmart said ther is NO LIMIT to their supply. THe 2 stores by me have 20+ players on the end-cap alone. So people have reported over 40 per store.

Again, Walmart was asked if there was a limit and they said NO. Maybe some day this will get through to you. Please read the news stories again...

It is not something they want to hear. It will NEVER get through to them. The BD boys ARE worried. Check back to early spring, summer about the "cheap Chinese players." They didn't think it would happen...and it didn't. They were correct, now there are cheap Toshiba players.:D

Panasonic DMP BD 30K Release date early November (2007).

1st link is PDF of comparison between the 10k and 30k
2nd link is brochure


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92896&d=1193264653

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=92897&d=1193265131Interesting - so much money and it can't even do 24p output...

And I'll bet that it isn't BD 1.1 when it ships, but "BD 1.1 ready"... if it ships in "early November", as you say.

Have you been able to demonstrate any effect of player price in the software sales?

As I recall, it was supposed to kick in back in May and we are still waiting.

There have only been two factors that have sold software titles in significant numbers.

First is hot titles. Second is software pricing.

We saw both last week. We have never seen player price have any demonstrable effect.

I know firesale player pricing is all HD DVD has going for it, but it really seems to be a complete failure with respect to selling movies, which is where the actual revenues are generated for these formats.

What do you call Sony losing hundreds per unit on a gimped $399 PS3? An act of goodwill and charity?:rolleyes:

Well, that is a physical impossibility.

Are you saying that Toshiba is still making A2s even with the A3 being made?

Does that make any sense to you?


It depends. If they've made an agreement to continue production specifically for a few select retailers.

That happens ALL THE TIME in the retail world. Especially in the PC market. For example ATI will continue to produce a "Dell specific" model of a no longer sold card simply because of an agreement between the two companies.

It is not something they want to hear. It will NEVER get through to them. The BD boys ARE worried. Check back to early spring, summer about the "cheap Chinese players." They didn't think it would happen...and it didn't. They were correct, now there are cheap Toshiba players.:D

They wouldn't be all over this thread if they weren't worried.:p

It does not mean that they have an infinite supply of the players.

The quote of unlimited supplies was a direct response to prior rumors that there would be only "18 units per store"

Sounds to me like it has nothing to do with how many you can buy at once (where there is no limit there either) but more specifically that you might find a store with 100 units for sale.

It's more like an acolyte Union meeting here, tonight. Last time I checked, this wasn't and HD DVD thread. However, AVS has become a defacto HD DVD website because of the paid MS shills who reside here. They lose more respect in the AV world by the day, by letting these kind of speculative threads exist. They would be better off having a private chatroom area for the MS shills, but that will never happen.Wouldn't it be a more constructive contribution here if you debated the actual topic instead of just attacking other users here and the forum itself?

If you don't like it and can't be part of a civil discussion, you are welcome to go to whichever of the other forums you favor.

Is Wal mart clearing out old inventory? I'll admit that the price is good but
... Maybe wal mart just has a lot of them(from Sams club).

What we do know is that the HD-A2, is no longer in production. So as far as we know, the $198 price tag dies with the HD-A2.

To find out more information, someone needs to find out how much distributors are paying for their HD-A3s. Finally, how can smaller stores such as value electronics compete with a $198 HD DVD player from wal mart and Circuit city? I'd imagine they would have to sell the HD-A2s/A3s for $180 shipped or less to be competitive.

Sure they could sell the Onkyos and such, but the bulk of sales is the lowest priced model.

Are you saying that Toshiba is still making A2s even with the A3 being made?

Does that make any sense to you?



Yes it does.

There are literally thousands of products manufactured exclusively for one retailer or another, this wouldn't be any different.

If Wal*mart has decided to go "all in" on this (and I am not saying yet that they have) then it would be almost expected that they have specific players made just for their stores (and Sam's Clubs of course) that they are buying in tremendous quantities and selling at "an everyday low price".

By having that player be the HD-A2, Toshiba can still market the "newer model" HD-A3 at consumer electronics stores for a few dollars more while leaving the "older" A2s as something only available at WM.

And once the "HD-A4" (or whatever they get called) models come out, then Wal*mart can have the A3s and it starts all over again.

Again, I am not saying that this is exactly what is happening but if it is then it is a marketing stroke of genius.

That just means they won't stop you from buying more than one. You can buy their whole pile if you want.

Many cheap prices have a per customer limit. They are saying this does not.

It does not mean that they have an infinite supply of the players.This is FUD, phloyd.

They said there are NO limits in the inventory for the stores - and they said it in DIRECT response to a question about the FUD rumours that there were only 18 units per store. One cannot be more explicit than that, yet you choose to attempt to say they meant purchase limits?? Pulleeezz...

Goodnight.