What Is Going On With Studio Support? [Text View]

mcgarnagle

10-27-07, 01:06 PM

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 01:10 PM

Given the puny sales overall for HDM, I believe more studios will be following Weinstein and just sitting things out. Catalog titles are selling in the thousands of units. Even 'huge' titles like Transformers are only selling about 100,000 units. This is chump change when the SD DVD version sells 8.5 million units in the same time frame.

Why would studios devote much resources to HD when the market is fractured by two competing formats and current returns are so small? Unless we say an astronomical increase in sales by the end of the year (unlikely IMO), expect even fewer releases starting next year.

I understand your points - all valid BTW. But the studios created the war. They know that the market is fractured - they created this mess. So now they will sit back and see what happens?

:confused:...:confused:...:confused:

Or is this a case of waiting to see if the public will embrace HD DVD because of the $198 and lower pricing? Let HD DVD test the waters?

Elwar

10-27-07, 01:14 PM

They're waiting on a winner. So are consumers.

Edit; And what is the 'PS3 demographic'. Last I checked, gamers in general and PlayStation in particular appealed to all ages, both genders, but was dominated by the lucrative and diverse 23-38 demograpic ?

MichaelHDDVD

10-27-07, 01:14 PM

IMO all studios are dropping the ball, except maybe Warner. Warner just doesn't print enough copies of titles.

LordGamer

10-27-07, 01:19 PM

The studios didn't create the mess. On the bigger scheme of things, I don't even believe BDA or the HD DVD group did.

The core issue isn't about Blu-ray vs HD DVD. Even if all studios released on both formats, the sales would still be small at best. There simply isn't enough mainstream public interest yet in either HD format.

As mcgarnagle stated, I doubt any studio feels the need to invest in these HD formats when the return isn't much (especially compared to DVD).

If and when there is a large installed user base (of either format), then the studios will show more interest.

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 01:24 PM

The studios didn't create the mess. On the bigger scheme of things, I don't even believe BDA or the HD DVD group did.

The core issue isn't about Blu-ray vs HD DVD. Even if all studios released on both formats, the sales would still be small at best. There simply isn't enough mainstream public interest yet in either HD formats.

As mcgarnagle stated, I doubt any studio feels the need to invest in these HD formats when the return isn't much (especially compared to DVD).

If and when there is a large installed user base (of either format), then the studios will show more interest.

Then it becomes the old chicken/egg game. . .

They want to sell players . . the public wants movies to play on the players. Limited movies means limited player appeal . . and round and round it goes.:confused:

nyg

10-27-07, 01:33 PM

They're waiting on a winner. So are consumers.

+1

You want all the great films out in hi-def? Then you had better get behind one format. The longer this war drags on the less likely either of them will achieve mainstream success.

LordGamer

10-27-07, 01:35 PM

Then it becomes the old chicken/egg game. . .

They want to sell players . . the public wants movies to play on the players. Limited movies means limited player appeal . . and round and round it goes.:confused:

Pretty much.

To be fair, I do believe the studios have done a decent job considering these are still fairly new technologies.

All of the major new releases are released on DVD and the HD formats (i.e. Transformers, Spiderman). It's the older catalog titles and lesser "hits" the studios are holding back. There are too many limiting sales factors that don't make it worth their (studios) time.

For example, many people (myself included) have bought several DVD movies, just because they were on sale or had a slight interest in. Would these people be willing to buy these catalog titles again and pay more?

I own LadyKillers on DVD, but I wouldn't shell out more than $10 to get it on Blu-ray or HD DVD (and I thought the movie was decent, mainly because of TH though).

Rob.D.inToronto

10-27-07, 01:38 PM

They aren't serious because there aren't serious (enough) sales and/or profits to be had. Many studios are probably waiting to see holiday sales as a whole, before they decide their level of commitment to the HD formats.

True. I was in a futureshop and Sony has released a few upconverting dvd players with the 1080p HD sticker on them.

That means a lot of people will think 1080p HD is DVDs played on this player.

Soon the other CEs will follow, and those stickers will be on all upconverters.

There should have been a rule.

kizzo

10-27-07, 02:32 PM

True. I was in a futureshop and Sony has released a few upconverting dvd players with the 1080p HD sticker on them.

That means a lot of people will think 1080p HD is DVDs played on this player.

That is very interesting. Maybe this will become the new "norm".

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 02:33 PM

That is very interesting. Maybe this will become the new "norm".

If it does then HDM is in BIG trouble:(

vancouver

10-27-07, 02:40 PM

That is very interesting. Maybe this will become the new "norm".

it is the norm. If you polled 100,000 people whith limited knowladge on HD with a yes or no question like this what do you think the outcome would be?

" If you have a HDTV and a DVD player that upconverts a DVD to 1080p are you seeing a HD picture?" yes or no

LordGamer

10-27-07, 02:41 PM

If it does then HDM is in BIG trouble:(

HDM has already been in "big trouble." These HD formats are niche at best; not even close to being the successor to DVD. There are too many factors that hinder their success. Granted, a unified format (which won't happen) would greatly help the adoption rate, it would merely postpone the inevitable.

By the time, either HD format shows a significant amount of market penetration, the true successor to DVD will be close to a mainstream launch.

HomerJay

10-27-07, 02:47 PM

rubso

10-27-07, 02:49 PM

where is my Shawshank Redemption and Seven ?

HiDef4Life

10-27-07, 03:07 PM

JWhip

10-27-07, 03:19 PM

I agree that there are not enough titles being sold for the formats to warrant support form the studios. The real problem isn't the format war, it is the price of the players, the prices of the discs and the total numbers of HD sets out there. The last factor will start to change this holiday season, providing nthe economy doesn't take a real downturn. Unfortunately, a lot of people have been spending like drunken sailors as evidenced by the negative savings rates nationally the last two years. Yes, as a nation, we collectively have been spending more than we earn. This is due in part on the rapid rise in real estate prices as people used their homes as personal banks, relying on ever rising prices and equity. Now that that bubble is bursting, I would expect a real contraction in spending. That could depress sales of HD sets this holiday season which would in turn depress potential sales of HD and BD players and discs. DVD is good enough for most people and the costs of the players and even worse, the discs, really turn them off. With money tighter, why buy a next gen player and why buy a disc for $25, 30 or 40 that you can get for 12, or better yet rent? Given all this, it would not surprise me that the studios would re-evaluate their commitment to HDM at this early stage in the game. Certainly, the sales of catalogue titles haven't warranted the effort, even though there were some great efforts. There was talk last year of releases of Singin in the Rain and North By Northwest. Maybe the meager sales of Casablanca put a halt to those projects. Only time will tell.

PRO-630HD

10-27-07, 03:22 PM

I live in a small town of 9,000. When my local walmart has a rack of bluray and hddvd titles they are not in trouble at all. These formats will be with us for many years to come.

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 03:25 PM

JWhip . . . you are not the only one concerned with Q4 sales:

Forecasters Predict Tepid Holiday Sales

By Alan Wolf -- TWICE, 9/21/2007 8:36:00 AM
Washington — Two separate retail analyses released this week suggest that the choppy macroeconomic environment will take some wind out of holiday sales.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), here, retail sales during November and December will rise 4 percent this year to $474.5 billion, representing the slowest holiday sales growth since 2002, when revenue rose 1.3 percent.

Over the past 10 years, sales during this period grew an average of 4.8 percent, NRF said.

“Retailers are in for a somewhat challenging holiday season as consumers are faced with numerous economic obstacles,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “With the weak housing market and current credit crunch, consumers will be forced to be more prudent with their holiday spending.”

Retailers most affected by the economy will be those catering to low- to middle-income consumers, Wells predicted, which could be problematic for discounters and some department stores whose shoppers may be looking to trade down.

Circuit City CEO Phil Schoonover cited the NRF forecast during a conference call yesterday, noting that it mirrors his company’s own assessment of the holiday period.

A separate study by Columbus, Ohio-based consultancy TNS Retail Forward was even more sobering. The market research firm agreed that holiday sales will grow at their weakest pace in five years, but predicted that gains will slow to 3.3 percent from 4.6 percent in 2006.

“The credit crunch will lead to a consumer crunch by the holidays. This will extend the weakness in retail sales beyond home improvement stores to other retail channels,” cautioned the firm’s senior economist Frank Badillo.

“This top-line forecast may still underestimate the extent of the weakness,” he continued. “Our forecast numbers are even weaker when home improvement and catalog retailer sales and online sales are excluded. And the risks are biased in favor of still weaker growth, particularly if the housing market deteriorates further.”

One positive, Badillo said, is that spending by up-market households has been less affected by growing economic worries than spending by down-market households. “It’s likely that the ongoing economic fallout will increasingly affect up-market households and retailers, but up-market spending should remain relatively more buoyant.”

Broken out by channel of distribution, Retail Forward projects:

· Consumer electronics and appliance stores will be hurt as a result of the comparison to last year’s double-digit growth fed by a promotional frenzy for HDTVs. This year the price cutting will be even steeper across all consumer electronics, but the response in demand will be less exuberant;

· Mass retailers will remain the most resistant to the economic slowdown. Supercenters and warehouse clubs will continue to be among the best retail performers while discount department stores will be the laggards of the sector;

· The most significant ongoing slide will be among soft goods or apparel retailers, although home improvement faces the most significant risk of weaker-than-expected performance.

Online sales will remain the best performing channel among all of retailing, Retail Forward said, with e-commerce sales expected to approach $42 billion in the fourth quarter compared with $35 billion last holiday season, an increase of 18.5 percent. Online sales as a share of total retail sales will also reach a new holiday high of 3.5 percent compared with 3.1 percent a year ago, the firm predicted

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6480619.html

JWhip

10-27-07, 03:34 PM

I think those assessments are on the high side but I am not an analyst, just judging from what I see in the real world.

kizzo

10-27-07, 03:53 PM

it is the norm. If you polled 100,000 people whith limited knowladge on HD with a yes or no question like this what do you think the outcome would be?

" If you have a HDTV and a DVD player that upconverts a DVD to 1080p are you seeing a HD picture?" yes or no

Good point.

Mr. Cinema

10-27-07, 04:11 PM

I'm hoping that the Twister delay is similar to the Face/Off delay...:)

Thanks to Twister, the forecast is Warner switches HD DVD exclusive. I'm sure after a few of those Wal-mart players sell out, it's not too far off.
Doesn't their BDA contract expire after 10/31/07? IF that is the case and they decide not to renew, then why are they releasing Terminator 3 on Blu-ray in December? Can they do that if their contract expires?

Everdog

10-27-07, 04:19 PM

Studios are just waiting for the install base to hit a certain level. I doubt they are making much money selling on 10,000 copies of a title.

If Walmart can sell the thousands (tens of thousands?) of players they are currently putting in their supercenters, it may help. We need to have a couple million to be taken seriously.

HiDef4Life

10-27-07, 04:21 PM

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 05:25 PM

Doesn't their BDA contract expire after 10/31/07? IF that is the case and they decide not to renew, then why are they releasing Terminator 3 on Blu-ray in December? Can they do that if their contract expires?

I believe that WB has clearly committed to staying neutral until the earliest - 1st week in Jan. 2008 which is very close to CES 2008.

It is not uncommon for contracts to have a clause that allows for a continuation by month to month (at the existing rate/cost/committment/whatever) until such time that negioations produce a new contract (usually at a lower whatever) or the contract is over and both parties are released from their obligations as spelled out in the contract.

SamwisetheBrave

10-27-07, 05:41 PM

I believe that WB has clearly committed to staying neutral until the earliest - 1st week in Jan. 2008 which is very close to CES 2008.

It is not uncommon for contracts to have a clause that allows for a continuation by month to month (at the existing rate/cost/committment/whatever) until such time that negioations produce a new contract (usually at a lower whatever) or the contract is over and both parties are released from their obligations as spelled out in the contract.

The longer WB waits to go HD DVD exclusive, the longer they help draw the war out. My mom has an expression: "Cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Go HD DVD exclusive NOW, WB...or condemn yourselves and everyone else to more stalemate.

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 05:47 PM

The longer WB waits to go HD DVD exclusive, the longer they help draw the war out. My mom has an expression: "Cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Go HD DVD exclusive NOW, WB...or condemn yourselves and everyone else to more stalemate.

It would be profit sucide for WB to make ANY changes until after the Xmas buying spree is over. They sell almost 30% of all HD movies on disc. Q4 is the biggest Q for sales of movies. They will remain neutral until CES 2008 and then announce at the approproiate place and time - their future plans.

As your mother says . . . "You don't cut off your nose to spite your face."

Your mother is a smart woman.:)

Just by the fact that WB is neutral just shows their committment to selling their product. They are in this war for the dollars and they have done the best of all the studios (well maybe not as good as Viacom has done;))

The ONLY reason why WB will go exclusive is if they feel that by doing so will make them more money than they are today. That is their goal and they never waiver.

If they feel that one format will help them to sell more movies then they will go that route. If they feel that being neutral will bring in more dollars then they will stay neutral.

Trust me . . there are no emotions in play when it comes to WB. Dollars - nothing else matters.

PopcornReady

10-27-07, 06:14 PM

The studios are releasing a reasonable amount of material, with a reasonable amount of promotion, considering this is a nascent format with relatively little immediate upside. There is really only one major party who will profit from hidef media: the studios. The CE folks can win, sure: replacing $29 DVD player prematurely. But then they could make something else, as well.

Studios do not have this luxury. DVDs have fallen to dangerously low price levels; they really need something to inspire us to re-purchase our library over the next decade. Hidef is the ticket.

You can be sure if a market develops for releasing in two formats, most studios will do just that. We can be grateful that Warner is straddling both during this time -- the most expensive time with little payback and high initial costs.

My advice: buy the things that intrigue you; buy a little more of the things which you are on the fence about than you might -- as a show of support. Don't miss the opportunity to vote with your wallet for the vision of the future you support. :)

Greg Kettell

10-27-07, 06:14 PM

The longer WB waits to go HD DVD exclusive, the longer they help draw the war out. My mom has an expression: "Cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Go HD DVD exclusive NOW, WB...or condemn yourselves and everyone else to more stalemate.

Why not go Blu-ray exclusive? The effect would be the same, and they sell more on BD now.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face..

PaulGo

10-27-07, 06:16 PM

Lee, my complements on an excellent thread! I think your new tag puts thing into it's proper perspective "The Format War . . . 2 Fleas Arguing Over Who Owns The Dog!":)

trbarry

10-27-07, 08:12 PM

It is also possible some studios are waiting to see the impact of the release of BD+. It has created some compatibility problems but also does not appear to be cracked yet.

If it is still (unlikely) not cracked in 6 months I'd expect some studios to start to consider it a positive feature and by then any ongoing compatibility issues will be known. But either way some studios may be waiting since they can't make enough profit on HDM yet to really worry much about lost revenue due to hesitation.

- Tom

rdjam

10-27-07, 08:17 PM

IMO - the studios are NOT serious about HDM. They are biding their time for some reason.

Thoughts?Don't worry, Lee. When they sell another 500,000 HD DVD players at $198 before January, all the studios will go HD DVD.

Don't forget - 500,000 standalone HD DVD players would equal the software sales of approximately 3.5 Million PS3s, meaning that BD's lead would be forever erased...

heavyharmonies

10-27-07, 08:37 PM

+1

You want all the great films out in hi-def? Then you had better get behind one format. The longer this war drags on the less likely either of them will achieve mainstream success.

That's great. We all agree that's a big problem hindering larger adoption (I won't say "mass market adoption" because I think that until studios release ONLY on HDM or a combo-like format there will not be any mass market adoption).

The devil is in the details. HOW, at this stage, do you get to one format? HD-DVD proponents will say "studios should just go HD-DVD exclusive." BR proponents will say "studios should just go BR exclusive."

We're in a stalemate.

Outside of getting the major players in a room together and getting them to agree to abide to the results of a coin flip, what is the answer?

It's clear that neither side is getting any significant traction over the other...

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 08:46 PM

DougPr

10-27-07, 08:50 PM

All manufacturers need to do what samsung is doing. Release dual format players. This war is not going to end in the near future. Sony will ride their bluray and PS3 to victory or death, so no early surrender there. HD-DVD has a price advantage and HDi support that keeps studios and enough consumers to keep it in the game as well.

Dual format reaching mainstream prices allows consumers to no longer fear picking up a player for a dieing format. By not allowing the war to end, the consumer is also guaranteed to continue to see strong competition in picture/audio quality and pricing between both formats, but by owning a dual format player, they will reap the rewards from either side.

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 09:02 PM

DougPr

10-27-07, 09:14 PM

Lee Stewart

10-27-07, 09:17 PM

The samsung player is $799 at quite a few places. There's already one on froogle for less than that. But it's also a feature rich player with a reon upconverting chip, HDMI 1.3, bluray 1.1, and 7.1 analog.

I'm just saying if all companies started creating these kinds of players, even with fewer features, the price would get lower fairly soon. I expect the Samsung price to get cut in half by each holiday season, resulting in a $200 feature rich dual format player within 2 years.

That is a very aggressive pricing structure for a player(s) that has yet to be released (5000 in late Dec. - read: Q1 2008) and one just released for $999. I do not believe LG offers a street discount on their BH200 - just like they didn't on the BH100.

IMO you are off by at least a year . . . or more.

PaulGo

10-27-07, 09:29 PM

Allevai! That is a Yiddish expression we say when we want to convey; "From your mouth to Gods ears.":D

Somehow I don't think God will interject him/her self in this format war. From all the arguments I see on the internet it looks like the Devil is stirring the pot.;)

Anyway I think Sony is making a shrewed move packing a Blu-ray with the PS3, it will open a lot of eyes this holiday season and increase the rate PS3 owners will purchase Blu-ray discs. - Mazel-tov!:)

gljvd

10-27-07, 09:45 PM

hd90210

10-27-07, 11:34 PM

HiDef4Life

10-27-07, 11:42 PM

It's true that HDM is such a small market and it makes you wonder why did Toshiba spent $150 million on the Paramount/Dreamworks deal. It looks like Toshiba's goal is just to create market confusion in order to prolong the life of DVD.

I never realized Smurfs were so concerned about Toshiba's financials? :rolleyes:

Lee Stewart

10-28-07, 12:57 AM

I never realized Smurfs were so concerned about Toshiba's financials? :rolleyes:

Didn't you know? They have ALWAYS assumed that Toshiba is losing money selling HD DVD players. I mean it's not their money so why should they care?

They take great pride in the fact that Sony has lost BILLIONS with the PS3 - their Trojan Horse - their savoir - the 90%+ reason why BD is still around today.

Amazing that people give a damn if CEM's are willing to lose money so the consumer can afford their products.

Me . . I am happy as a clam in the mud with all this subsidizing. :)

HiDef4Life

10-28-07, 01:09 AM

Didn't you know? They have ALWAYS assumed that Toshiba is losing money selling HD DVD players. I mean it's not their money so why should they care?

They take great pride in the fact that Sony has lost BILLIONS with the PS3 - their Trojan Horse - their savoir - the 90%+ reason why BD is still around today.

Amazing that people give a damn if CEM's are willing to lose money so the consumer can afford their products.

Me . . I am happy as a clam in the mud with all this subsidizing. :)

Exactly. The more subsidies and BoGos the better it is for the consumers. I was only gonna buy Transformers last week but couldn't resist the Disney BoGo and picked up 4 BDs because of it. Here's to more BoGos, maybe from the HDDVD side this time.;)

dkwhite

10-28-07, 01:11 AM

anotheraviator

10-28-07, 01:19 AM

Don't worry, Lee. When they sell another 500,000 HD DVD players at $198 before January, all the studios will go HD DVD.

Don't forget - 500,000 standalone HD DVD players would equal the software sales of approximately 3.5 Million PS3s, meaning that BD's lead would be forever erased...

I should remind everyone of my conspiracy theory posting months ago! :) Seems to be unfolding pretty darn near what I thought.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11618257&postcount=314

I almost feel -- call it a hunch -- that there is a giant HDM secret. Something is going to happen Q4 and I think some parties know about it, and others don't.

I find it interesting that the BR PR machine has been in overdrive. I find it interesting that HD-DVD PR machine has been in overdrive. Major announcements are leaking left right and center but with no confirmation and a quick responses to say "no no.. don't worry. nothing has changed".

We've had Walmart come back with a response saying "no we didn't decide anything, we are looking into it"

We have Warner saying "no no we aren't going exclusive YET. Don't worry, for NOW you can get both formats"

Could it mean that inks already been placed on contracts for Q4? Could it be that people have already been told not to say ANYTHING yet as it could affect some diabolical "master plan".

I have a feeling Walmart & Warner know something very important and very secret.

and webphilosopher with this one:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11618408&postcount=321

Quote:
Originally Posted by webphilosopher View Post
Remember Ting's comments in the old cheap Chinese player thread. He said Warner reps were in China talking to Fuh Yuan, which allegedly was going to make hundreds of thousands of HD DVD players for Wal-Mart. Of course, all that was probably nonsense -- or was it? Could it also be that that deal fell through, that the Warner movie to be bundled with Fuh Yuan ended up in the Toshiba third generation boxes, and the new deal is between Toshiba and Wal-Mart directly, since Toshiba can now meet Wal-Mart's price demands? Does anyone think it is strange that Warner and Universal are bundling movies with the Toshiba? Will Warner be bundling anything with the Blu-ray players? If not, why not?

dkwhite

10-28-07, 01:27 AM

The samsung player is $799 at quite a few places. There's already one on froogle for less than that. But it's also a feature rich player with a reon upconverting chip, HDMI 1.3, bluray 1.1, and 7.1 analog.

I'm just saying if all companies started creating these kinds of players, even with fewer features, the price would get lower fairly soon. I expect the Samsung price to get cut in half by each holiday season, resulting in a $200 feature rich dual format player within 2 years.

those players are 2 years away from being priced down far enough that most consumers would consider making a purchase.

This holiday season sales will be poor, but I still believe the A2 will do extremely well. You can buy an upconverting player (good one) for 120-150, or for a few bucks more you can buy a better upconverting player that also plays HD DVD's. Which do you choose?

I don't think sony can afford to lower prices anymore on their PS3, if they drop it any further they are going to be in REAL trouble.

rto

10-28-07, 02:03 AM

those players are 2 years away from being priced down far enough that most consumers would consider making a purchase.

This holiday season sales will be poor, but I still believe the A2 will do extremely well. You can buy an upconverting player (good one) for 120-150, or for a few bucks more you can buy a better upconverting player that also plays HD DVD's. Which do you choose?

I don't think sony can afford to lower prices anymore on their PS3, if they drop it any further they are going to be in REAL trouble.

They painted themselves and their BDA partners into a corner from the beginning. PS3 desperately needed system-selling gaming exclusives this holiday season, and it isn't getting them. MS ( to say nothing of Nintendo ) is already in the midst of smothering Sony beneath an avalanche of amazing must-have titles. If HD DVD standalones manage to achieve anything even remotely approaching parity with PS3 sales this fall, I think a number of people will begin to seriously question the wisdom of continuing to bank on the success of a swayback horse who just can't pull away from the field.

bdizzle

10-28-07, 06:02 AM

s2mikey

10-28-07, 08:24 AM

Studios do not have this luxury. DVDs have fallen to dangerously low price levels; they really need something to inspire us to re-purchase our library over the next decade. Hidef is the ticket.

Agreed.... I would actually like to see the HD releases come out sooner or have some key things that the SD versions do NOT get. Somehow, they have to try to increase the incentive for people to adopt HDM.

nithr

10-28-07, 09:05 AM

yeah why wont these companies spend a ton of manhours and money and then end up selling 10k copies? 50k if they're lucky. 100k if they're really lucky.

........

anotheraviator

10-28-07, 12:17 PM

Why not go Blu-ray exclusive? The effect would be the same, and they sell more on BD now.

And lock themselves into a format riddled with problems, high costs, and poor planning. One that is basically pushing away a huge percentage of the potential consumer population by high priced hardware.

The effect will be the same regardless what format they choose. If they choose HD-DVD over Bluray tomorrow and within 6 months sell through 500,000 players, they've just surpassed any sales that were possible with Bluray. Easy as pie.

There are only so many more potential PS3 owners left. You do realize that most BD owners are PS3 owners? It's going to dry up. They aren't going to sell another 5 million PS3s. Nobody is buying the over priced standalones.

anotheraviator

10-28-07, 12:18 PM

It's true that HDM is such a small market and it makes you wonder why did Toshiba spent $150 million on the Paramount/Dreamworks deal. It looks like Toshiba's goal is just to create market confusion in order to prolong the life of DVD.

Because the future of HDM is worth about 8 billion dollars in royalties. This is why BOTH sides are willing to lose money now.

PopcornReady

10-28-07, 01:39 PM

We're in a stalemate.

Outside of getting the major players in a room together and getting them to agree to abide to the results of a coin flip, what is the answer?

It's clear that neither side is getting any significant traction over the other...

No, there is no stalemate, it's just things are not changing daily. Molasses moves down hill slowly, but it's still moving. Same with the various elements which make up pressures in this "war".

Blockbuster declaring Blu-ray for all in June, Target saying Blu-ray only for Q4 are not stalemate conditions. Paramount dropping Blu-ray and Wal-mart and Circuit City selling $199 HD DVD players does not create a stalemate.

Blu-ray sealed its own fate when it failed to come to market this fall (ie Sep or Oct) with a new generation of players at 1.1 profile delivering interactivity plus at least a dozen titles spread over a couple of studios which heavily highlighted this capability. Blu-ray's refusal to provide entry level players was the final nail in this coffin.

Blu-ray will flourish for a time, especially as part of PS3, and can count on growing in households throughout 2008. But it will not be till this time next year that Profile 1.1 interactivity will be able to make any dent in the market and by that time HD DVD will be very deeply entrenched.

And that is why you can expect significant acceleration of HD DVD titles in 2008 and a leveling off of support for Blu-ray at the same time.

Listen a little more closely: the fat lady has already begun to sing.

Rakesh.S

10-28-07, 01:44 PM

Lee Stewart

10-28-07, 01:47 PM

Prices need to get to $99 for a hardware player by next summer

Movies need to be priced equal to DVDs. If I see The Dark Knight for $16.99 for a 2 disc deluxe edition, I want the HD-DVD to be $16.99 as well, not $34.99.

Until this happens, it will be a struggle.

And when all that you suggest happens . . the studios and CEM's are RIGHT back where they started - the quest for a more profitable format than DVD.

So all that has been accomplished is that the studios and CEM's have spent untold billions developing a format that to them gives no higher profit than DVD.

And that makes business sense to you?:confused:

Zoo

10-28-07, 01:59 PM

a little OT, but hopefully sony continue to lose on the gaming front. i hope they learn a hard, expensive lesson. 600 for a video game system is uncalled for.

i've been happy with the rate movies are coming out honestly. there's a couple hundred out (thanks netflix) so there's really not a lack of content as far as i see it. im not a movie buff, i just enjoy a good movie. most big titles (tranformers, 300, die hard, etc) come out day and date w/ dvd. as long as that continues (and prices drop) im happy.

I can think off hand of two systems priced at this level that were commercial failures. The first is the 3DO and the second is the NEO-GEO. Sony is at $399 right now; but $299 and ideally $199 is the "sweet" spot for a gaming system.

Rob.D.inToronto

10-28-07, 02:10 PM

If the future potential profits are around 9 billion or so, when is the point of no profits hit?

How much has been invested by all parties in this tech, to create it? How much has been lost? I know Sony has lost upwards of 2 billion over the last two years, mostly on PS3 issues, but how much did they invest up front? And what about Toshiba and MS?

That 9 billion won't be given to one company, it will be distributed over a patent pool.

Is it already too late to make money?

ptysell

10-28-07, 03:02 PM

mproper

10-28-07, 03:11 PM

a little OT, but hopefully sony continue to lose on the gaming front. i hope they learn a hard, expensive lesson. 600 for a video game system is uncalled for.

Me too. I'm just glad I don't have to worry about the XBOX 720 (or whatever) or Playstation 4 costing $599. No way that will happen after they see the PS3 fiasco.

Movies need to be priced equal to DVDs. If I see The Dark Knight for $16.99 for a 2 disc deluxe edition, I want the HD-DVD to be $16.99 as well, not $34.99.

I dunno...if the SD DVD is $16.99, I would think the HD version could be $19.99 and still sell. $22.99 is pushing it, and $24.99 is pushing it even further. $34.99 (more than twice as much) is ridiculous though.

Timothy Ramzyk

10-28-07, 03:16 PM

They aren't serious because there aren't serious (enough) sales and/or profits to be had. Many studios are probably waiting to see holiday sales as a whole, before they decide their level of commitment to the HD formats.

A yet they made their dam bed, that's what kills me. They form alliances that erode consumer confidence, and then dry up support when they're to blame!:mad:

For it being a Holiday shopping time upon us, I can only describe the schedule as paltry.

gandley

10-28-07, 03:27 PM

Maybe HDM was just too early. the real problem is HDTV penetration. sure its getting better but its going to take a few more years before HDTV is mainstream, more so i guess in europe but it is on the uptake.

500,000 HDDVD players is still not enough, what if BD still sell 250,000 players. we still have a spilt market.

What if WB do go HDDVD only, we still have a format war, nothing really changes. the longer it goes on the more chance the BDA gets to sort out there problems and put out a sub $200 player. it will happen, its just a matter of when.

If your economy minded when it comes to hardware, then we still have a media price problem to overcome.
we will still be going over all these details with a fine comb come crimbo 2008.:p

HiDef4Life

10-28-07, 05:11 PM

I can think off hand of two systems priced at this level that were commercial failures. The first is the 3DO and the second is the NEO-GEO. Sony is at $399 right now; but $299 and ideally $199 is the "sweet" spot for a gaming system.

+1

And add Sega Saturn, launched at $399.

Slim GoodBooty

10-28-07, 05:16 PM

Slim GoodBooty

10-28-07, 05:18 PM

PopcornReady

10-28-07, 05:27 PM

I'm just glad I don't have to worry about the XBOX 720 (or whatever) or Playstation 4 costing $599. No way that will happen after they see the PS3 fiasco.

One point about the PS3 "fiasco" is that the entire Gaming Division of Sony lost $841 million in the last three months alone and that's including software sales.

Put another way: Sony sold $2.2 billion worth of all gaming hardware and software from Jul 1 through Sep 30 ... but needed to charge $3.0 billion just to cover costs. The PS3 which retailed for avg $499 during that period actually cost far more than what Sony was charging wholesalers/dealers since Sony, surely, made some money on PSP2 and software sales during this period.

It underscores the huge losses on hardware and implies, at least, that there is a very good reason why Sharp, Samsung, Panasonic, Sony and others have not brought a Blu-ray player to market -- even a soon "obsolete" 1.0 model -- for under $499. Yet Toshiba and Venturer can market at $199ish.

I am guessing both Paramount and Warner Bros had very clear data in early summer to prove my points; Paramount decided to cut its Blu-ray losses right away; Warner Bros put Toshiba on notice to prove their argument.

The other studios are also watching closely ... how much lobbying did Toshiba do with Disney, Fox and MGM at the time? What will be in their plans A and B depending on Q4 2007 hardware and movie sales and the decisions of other players for CES 2008?

The studios want to find a model where they can (again) resell their back catalog and re-price the everyday release expectations to a higher point. They desperately want to erase "three movies for $10". Hidef provides that opportunity; you can bet they will be cautious before "killing" it.

PopcornReady

10-28-07, 05:34 PM

Even if all other studios decide to release HD DVD, Sony/Columbia (though perhaps not exclusively)will still release BDs for a long time to come I would suspect.

I agree that Sony will continue to release Blu-ray through 2008, 2009 and 2010 and beyond if Blu-ray remains part of the PS3 and PS4.

I also believe Sony Pictures Home Entertainment division will be hard pressed not to release its first HD DVD by 2009 once Disney, in particular, starts to capitalize on HD DVD HDi features -- something Disney "helped design" and wants for future revenue. If Blu-ray eventually delivers it, fine. If HD DVD delivers it today, even better.

Sisko197

10-28-07, 05:40 PM

What the heck is happening with the studio support . . . on both formats:confused:

1. Universal - where are all the movies?

2. Paramount/Dreamworks - How many will they release in Q4?

3. Weinstein - MIA

4. Fox - More cancellations -Battle Of Britain, Bridge Too Far ,Ronin and Red Dawn all cancelled/Postponed

5. Disney - Next year (Q3) for a vault classic?

7. Lionsgate - Are those cartoons selling at all - they sure have enough of them.

8. Sony - Is the PS3 crowd the only demographic they will release movies for?

9. WB - didn't they promise a whole bunch of movies for Q4 - where are they?

IMO - the studios are NOT serious about HDM. They are biding their time for some reason.

Thoughts?

1) They're out. They blew their wad over the course of the last year and a half. All they've got left are Speilberg classics that the director refuses to collaborate on because he prefers BD.

2) Paramount released about as many discs as Fox and Fox was only in the game for 3 months until recently. Paramount's not a prolific releaser. Dreamworks just got into the game and released... what? ...three movies before the switch? No change. That's why Paramount/Dreamworks being exclusive to HD DVD's not as big as it could be. Paramount/Dreamworks are hardly major producers. Transformers, Shrek 3, and Star Trek were the big reasons Toshiba/Microsoft poneyed over the 150 mill. Mostly that first one.

3) Weinstein, I suspect, is reevaluating why they're even in the high def market. They don't have many big movies and they have to be wondering at the return on their investment. I don't think they're considering dual format, but hey, maybe. Might be nice. I liked Sleven enough to buy it again on BD.

4) Fox is cancelling titles that are less likely to show off the "wow" of high def. They are still releasing the big titles most people want and the reasons why people actually buy high def players. I wouldn't have bought a single title of those you listed. Sorry. Not really the end of the world. They've just released FF2, Robocop, and both 28 Days/Weeks movies. Not to mention they have every Die Hard movie coming soon. Nope, not really that upset.

5) Disney isn't going to move up a classic vault title just to put it on Blu-ray and THEN release it next year on DVD. Are you stretching here? Disney's one of the best Blu-ray supporters. Putting the three POTC movies on BD was a major coup for any high def format. And of course there is the last two Pixar movies coming, too. Yep. Definitely stretching.

6) Can't count? There is no six.

7) Lionsgate's content isn't good enough for you? You complain about Disney not releasing cartoons and you complain about Lionsgate releasing cartoons. This amuses me for some reason. Could Lionsgate release more movies? Sure. At least they're not pulling a Paramount/Dreamworks or Universal. ;)

8) Sony's released Stranger than Fiction. Sony's released Secret Window. Sony's released Dracula. Sony released Preminition, no? Not sure if the PS3 crowd really enjoy these types of movies. ;) Those are just examples that popped off the top of my head. Then again, they also have every Spiderman movie coming and personally those are movies I REALLY wanted in high def.

9) WB's got Harry Potter coming in 1-5 set. And Blade Runner (!!!!). These are the ones that stand out for me. I think they could release more, but they could be evaluating the sales of the discs they've already released to determine which format, if either, they want to give up.

10) I'll add this one since you didn't. New Line. What's up with their favoring Blu-ray over HD DVD? Oh, that's right, region coding. Seems important to them. Too bad HD DVD's kinda short on that one. Sure, they could have more movies coming, but still... I'm sure I'll like Rush Hour 3. :)

The studios are serious enough. Too bad the public's not serious enough to make these formats succeed, but I guess when you have Toshiba vs Sony/Panasonic/Phillips/Pioneer/Sharp muddying the waters with the format war, you can't expect too much.

I think the Blu-ray side is fine on content releases. I've certainly got enough to buy. It's HD DVD's that I'm finding few and far between to buy. Each week, my Amazon boxes are very blue inside and there is very little red to be found.

If anything, I think Toshiba should have leased a more prolific content provider.

Rakesh.S

10-28-07, 07:03 PM

And when all that you suggest happens . . the studios and CEM's are RIGHT back where they started - the quest for a more profitable format than DVD.

So all that has been accomplished is that the studios and CEM's have spent untold billions developing a format that to them gives no higher profit than DVD.

And that makes business sense to you?:confused:

At this point, if all they're trying to do is find a format that is more profitable than DVD, then this discussion is worthless. We are already being milked dry with 34.99 and 39.99 MSRP discs. Hell, Sony was throwing around $45 MSRPs for CET3K and Spiderman 3 until people started bitching about it..

If the objective is to replace DVD with a better looking and sounding format, then this (where is studio support?) is a valid discussion.

HD-DVD looks like the format that is cheaper to produce, and they are currently higher priced than DVD. Profit margins on 34.99 combo discs are incredibly high right now, and what is the end result? No one is buying into HD.

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 12:09 AM

At this point, if all they're trying to do is find a format that is more profitable than DVD, then this discussion is worthless. We are already being milked dry with 34.99 and 39.99 MSRP discs. Hell, Sony was throwing around $45 MSRPs for CET3K and Spiderman 3 until people started bitching about it..

True - the EA's have a high tolerance to high prices don't they?

If the objective is to replace DVD with a better looking and sounding format, then this (where is studio support?) is a valid discussion.

You forgot to add increased margins over DVD

HD-DVD looks like the format that is cheaper to produce, and they are currently higher priced than DVD. Profit margins on 34.99 combo discs are incredibly high right now, and what is the end result? No one is buying into HD.

The current pricing for HDM is too high for mass appeal - I agree 100%. The idea is to keep it higher than DVD but not too high. Consumers will IMO pay up to $5.00 more for an HD movie over an SD movie. But they will not pay 2X the cost over. The studios know this.

They are waiting for the population of players to rise so it makes financial sense to lower the price because you will sell 2X or 5X as many movies. We are not at this point yet.

We can revisit this discussion after 12/31 when we have more info as to how well HDM was received this Xmas. Truly an unknown.

TomsHT

10-29-07, 11:15 AM

mcgarnagle

10-29-07, 11:30 AM

Paramount & Warner were originally behind HD DVD but decided to support both formats. A year and a half after launch and Blu-ray players are still not able to provide the functionality to match and surpass HD DVD as they promised. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Warner go back to supporting HD DVD exclusively.

Really at this point I'm kind of surprised we havent heard anything from Disney at least going neutral. It must be a real thorn in there side seeing Paramount, Warner and Universal all surpassing Disney with web enabled features that Disney themselves helped create but can not match with the Blu-ray format.

Yeh, you think maybe the Warner accountant's will check out which format their discs are selling more of when they go 'exclusive'. When one format outsells the other 2:1, I'm pretty sure the accounting department won't be pushing to exclusively sell the the LESSER format.

All the talk about $299, $199, mythical chinese players has all been talk up to now. Toshiba has been selling players for less than 1/2 the price of the cheapest BD player since May, yet they continually get spanked on software sales. Unless they have a couple more $150 million moneyhats lying around, it is far more likely Universal goes neutral.

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 11:34 AM

TomsHT

10-29-07, 12:02 PM

Yeh, you think maybe the Warner accountant's will check out which format their discs are selling more of when they go 'exclusive'. When one format outsells the other 2:1, I'm pretty sure the accounting department won't be pushing to exclusively sell the the LESSER format.

All the talk about $299, $199, mythical chinese players has all been talk up to now. Toshiba has been selling players for less than 1/2 the price of the cheapest BD player since May, yet they continually get spanked on software sales. Unless they have a couple more $150 million moneyhats lying around, it is far more likely Universal goes neutral.

Considering it has been said that costs could be as high as double for BR compared to HD so if that if that is so, then Warner isnt making a single penny more on BR despite having a consumer market 10 times larger then HD DVDs and unable to provide the same level of technology as HD DVD.

Just think with such poor attach rates for Blu-ray, HD DVD does not have to increase in size by 10 times its current amount of players but only about 500,000 players would need to be crush those software ratios. Blu-ray would need to sell millions of PS3's at that point in order to keep the same ratios.

ottscay

10-29-07, 01:28 PM

Considering it has been said that costs could be as high as double for BR compared to HD so if that if that is so, then Warner isnt making a single penny more on BR despite having a consumer market 10 times larger then HD DVDs and unable to provide the same level of technology as HD DVD.

Whoa there pardner; you don't seem to have much of a grasp of profit margins and production costs.

Let's draw some numbers out of a hat; say for the sake of arguement that DL HD DVDs cost $1.25 to make, while DL BDs cost $2.5 to make. Now let's say that out of the roughly $25 street cost (averaging between online and B&M stores) that the studios get about a quarter of the cost (roughly $6.00) but, for some reason the BDA is passing on the extra production cost to the studios (which is unlikely, but the only way your imaginary product-cost "problem" could affect studio profitability).

Then Warner would be getting $6.00 for every HD DVD, and $4.75 for each BD. Having sold about 200k copies of 300 on BD and around 100k copies on HD DVD (rouded numbers), Warner made just over $950,000 off of BD and $600,000 from sales of 300 on HD DVD.

Of course the BDA is almost certainly not passing the extra cost of manufacturing on to the studios, in which case Warner made twice as much o the BD of 300 (actually, MORE than twice as much, because Warner wasted a lot of money making extra content for the HD DVD that failed to drive sales to anything close to the BD sales numbers).

Just think with such poor attach rates for Blu-ray...
Gotta love talking points!

...HD DVD does not have to increase in size by 10 times its current amount of players but only about 500,000 players would need to be crush those software ratios. Blu-ray would need to sell millions of PS3's at that point in order to keep the same ratios.

Right...except that last we heard monthly BD standalone sales had caught HD DVD standalone sales, and since niether side has made a peep about it since, I suspect it's still about tied. There is no evidence that HD DVD standalones have a higher attach rate than BD standalones. So...price did not help sell more HD DVD stanalones in July, and if BD standalones sell as well or better during the holidays while millions of $400 PS3s sell as well (with their lower attach rate) who do you think will be kicking arse and taking names at CES in January?

TomsHT

10-29-07, 01:49 PM

Whoa there pardner; you don't seem to have much of a grasp of profit margins and production costs.

Let's draw some numbers out of a hat; say for the sake of arguement that DL HD DVDs cost $1.25 to make, while DL BDs cost $2.5 to make. Now let's say that out of the roughly $25 street cost (averaging between online and B&M stores) that the studios get about a quarter of the cost (roughly $6.00) but, for some reason the BDA is passing on the extra production cost to the studios (which is unlikely, but the only way your imaginary product-cost "problem" could affect studio profitability).

Then Warner would be getting $6.00 for every HD DVD, and $4.75 for each BD. Having sold about 200k copies of 300 on BD and around 100k copies on HD DVD (rouded numbers), Warner made just over $950,000 off of BD and $600,000 from sales of 300 on HD DVD.

Of course the BDA is almost certainly not passing the extra cost of manufacturing on to the studios, in which case Warner made twice as much o the BD of 300 (actually, MORE than twice as much, because Warner wasted a lot of money making extra content for the HD DVD that failed to drive sales to anything close to the BD sales numbers).

Gotta love talking points!

Right...except that last we heard monthly BD standalone sales had caught HD DVD standalone sales, and since niether side has made a peep about it since, I suspect it's still about tied. There is no evidence that HD DVD standalones have a higher attach rate than BD standalones. So...price did not help sell more HD DVD stanalones in July, and if BD standalones sell as well or better during the holidays while millions of $400 PS3s sell as well (with their lower attach rate) who do you think will be kicking arse and taking names at CES in January?

Not rocket science at all to know that there are millions of blu-ray players sold worldwide and only a fraction of that sold for HD DVD yet software sales are near identical.

ottscay

10-29-07, 02:12 PM

Not rocket science at all to know that there are millions of blu-ray players sold worldwide and only a fraction of that sold for HD DVD yet software sales are near identical.

There are millions of potential Blu-ray players (PS3s). Which means that as more consumers view BD as the winning format (reducing uncertainty) or buy in simply because of a BOGO there can be more rapid adoption in the future.

It's sort of a "slumbering giant", and meanwhile, 2:1 software sales are not very close to even. Unless you are counting last week when HD DVD couldn't capture half of the market even after buy the largest exclusive title to date.

AKM74

10-29-07, 02:15 PM

You guy either really naïve or really…

Instead of predict Warner switch for now it make more sense to think when (not even question IF) universal will go blue. Instead of releasing 5 remaining movie for HD-DVD in 2008 they may re-release all 300 titles on BD. That’s what they thinking right now.

GE already clearly point that out to them.

There is a world outside of US. There is an EU and Japan where attach rate for the hardware like 10-1. Universal and Warner DO release movies worldwide. With today US economy we not even profitable market anymore. At least not like at was 10 years ago. Think about it.

Sorry for my English

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 02:50 PM

TomsHT

10-29-07, 02:52 PM

There are millions of potential Blu-ray players (PS3s). Which means that as more consumers view BD as the winning format (reducing uncertainty) or buy in simply because of a BOGO there can be more rapid adoption in the future.

It's sort of a "slumbering giant", and meanwhile, 2:1 software sales are not very close to even. Unless you are counting last week when HD DVD couldn't capture half of the market even after buy the largest exclusive title to date.

Actually that shows my point to how poor of an attach rate Blu-ray has with 80% of PS3 owners not even using it to watch any movies...

Some giant, someone autta wake it up... with a BOGO sale of a whole catalog against one movie and still hardly sold more then 2 percent more even with those millions of players out there...

AKM74

10-29-07, 02:54 PM

You brought up some very good points. I guess they also apply to Fox, Lionsgate and Disney . . right?
Absolutely. They also release movie worldwide :D

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 02:57 PM

Absolutely. They also release movie worldwide :D

Hoping for the day all studios go neutral;)

HD DVD and DVD! . . ha ha :D

AKM74

10-29-07, 03:03 PM

Some giant, someone autta wake it up... with a BOGO sale of a whole catalog against one movie and still hardly sold more then 2 percent more even with those millions of players out there...

Whole catalog??? Do I miss something? It was only 20 Disney old titles. This sale was not even advertised. And when you say single movie... you mean HD-DVD didn’t manage to sell even single copy “non transformers” movie for whole week? Sad news.

BTW. I bout 3 movie that week. None of them was BOGO

AKM74

10-29-07, 03:06 PM

Hoping for the day all studios go neutral
HD DVD and DVD! . . ha ha
They already neutral. We got Spilberg and Lucas on BD and you have it on DVD. They are neutral.

Common guys... you do have transformers… remember

It's just YOU and ME.
No, it’s just ME

boomster

10-29-07, 03:11 PM

I was thinking about an HDM version of Jaws the other night, the SD DVD version did not look very good to my eyes, and it would take a complete remaster/restoration (very painstaking) to make this movie look good enough for HDM. We're talking probably a year + of work that would need to be done. My point is that it really takes time to get these titles to market.

While I agree with your post, it does make you wonder why they don't cover all grounds at once. Since you mentioned Jaws it popped into my head that I saw Jaws listed on my Comcast HD OnDemand the other day. You would think that if they have already mastered it for that, then it should be faster and easier to make for HDM. Sure they may not use the same codecs and bitrate, but while they are doing it for OnDemand, they should be doing an HDM version side by side.

I know that's not how it works, but it's more just a thought.

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 03:30 PM

Whoa there pardner; you don't seem to have much of a grasp of profit margins and production costs.

Let's draw some numbers out of a hat; say for the sake of arguement that DL HD DVDs cost $1.25 to make, while DL BDs cost $2.5 to make. Now let's say that out of the roughly $25 street cost (averaging between online and B&M stores) that the studios get about a quarter of the cost (roughly $6.00) but, for some reason the BDA is passing on the extra production cost to the studios (which is unlikely, but the only way your imaginary product-cost "problem" could affect studio profitability).

Then Warner would be getting $6.00 for every HD DVD, and $4.75 for each BD. Having sold about 200k copies of 300 on BD and around 100k copies on HD DVD (rouded numbers), Warner made just over $950,000 off of BD and $600,000 from sales of 300 on HD DVD.

Of course the BDA is almost certainly not passing the extra cost of manufacturing on to the studios, in which case Warner made twice as much o the BD of 300 (actually, MORE than twice as much, because Warner wasted a lot of money making extra content for the HD DVD that failed to drive sales to anything close to the BD sales numbers).

Gotta love talking points!

Right...except that last we heard monthly BD standalone sales had caught HD DVD standalone sales, and since niether side has made a peep about it since, I suspect it's still about tied. There is no evidence that HD DVD standalones have a higher attach rate than BD standalones. So...price did not help sell more HD DVD stanalones in July, and if BD standalones sell as well or better during the holidays while millions of $400 PS3s sell as well (with their lower attach rate) who do you think will be kicking arse and taking names at CES in January?

$199 A2s are gonna annihilate BluRay standalone sales this Christmas. Now is not a good time for smurfs to be bringing up standalone sales, trust me.

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 03:32 PM

There are millions of potential Blu-ray players (PS3s). Which means that as more consumers view BD as the winning format (reducing uncertainty) or buy in simply because of a BOGO there can be more rapid adoption in the future.

It's sort of a "slumbering giant", and meanwhile, 2:1 software sales are not very close to even. Unless you are counting last week when HD DVD couldn't capture half of the market even after buy the largest exclusive title to date.

Gamers won't purchase movies unless there's a BoGo. At regular prices, they rather use the money to buy a game.

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 03:36 PM

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 03:41 PM

They already neutral. We got Spilberg and Lucas on BD and you have it on DVD. They are neutral.

Common guys... you do have transformers… remember

It's just YOU and ME.
No, it’s just ME

You don't have Spielberg. His classics belong to Universal Pictures. They are being courteous to him at the moment but if they wanted to they could just release any of his films that they own the rights to.

AKM74

10-29-07, 03:48 PM

He recently “slap” universal to even mention Jaw HD-DVD.:)

America is the largest most important market in the world

Watch TV from time to time.

ottscay

10-29-07, 03:53 PM

$199 A2s are gonna annihilate BluRay standalone sales this Christmas. Now is not a good time for smurfs to be bringing up standalone sales, trust me.

Why on earth would you think that? HD DVD standalones have been around half the price of BD players since inception, and when HD DVD crossed the "magic" $299 price point (maybe you're too young to remeber, but everyone thought the 300 and 250 price points were gonna kill BD sales too) and BD standalones actually caught up and even surpassed monthly sales this summer. What on earth is another $50 going to do?

It is a MYTH that lowering prices automatically drives sales. It only increaes sales when consumer interest already exists to drive sales, and HD DVD simply does not have that.

There are what, 50k A2s left on clearance? Even if they sell every one, how big of a dent does that make? Come on, a dose of reality here through your rose-colored AVS glasses...

dcrhere

10-29-07, 04:29 PM

Why on earth would you think that? HD DVD standalones have been around half the price of BD players since inception, and when HD DVD crossed the "magic" $299 price point (maybe you're too young to remeber, but everyone thought the 300 and 250 price points were gonna kill BD sales too) and BD standalones actually caught up and even surpassed monthly sales this summer. What on earth is another $50 going to do?

It is a MYTH that lowering prices automatically drives sales. It only increaes sales when consumer interest already exists to drive sales, and HD DVD simply does not have that.

There are what, 50k A2s left on clearance? Even if they sell every one, how big of a dent does that make? Come on, a dose of reality here through your rose-colored AVS glasses...

Because until August the perception was that BD was crushing HD DVD.

And guess what? That depressed sales, and even gave BD SA's a boost. People (like me) became resigned that BD was going to be the only game in town, so get ready to fork over $500-600 or wait for the prices to come down.

Then came August, and things changed.

BD's problem now is that everyone will be expecting a similar price drop from the blue side, and until then will either go HD or sit on their wallets.

And that BD player price drop will come. And it's going to hurt the BD CE guys. A lot. This ain't what they were promised.

But I'll be first in line to buy a BD player when it does (already ordered my A2):D

SamwisetheBrave

10-29-07, 05:04 PM

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 05:09 PM

Why on earth would you think that? HD DVD standalones have been around half the price of BD players since inception, and when HD DVD crossed the "magic" $299 price point (maybe you're too young to remeber, but everyone thought the 300 and 250 price points were gonna kill BD sales too) and BD standalones actually caught up and even surpassed monthly sales this summer. What on earth is another $50 going to do?

It is a MYTH that lowering prices automatically drives sales. It only increaes sales when consumer interest already exists to drive sales, and HD DVD simply does not have that.

There are what, 50k A2s left on clearance? Even if they sell every one, how big of a dent does that make? Come on, a dose of reality here through your rose-colored AVS glasses...

$199 has always been the critical price point for mass adoption. That has been the historically proven price point for videogames, DVD players, CD players, VCRs and the same for HDDVD.

And do you have proof that there are only 50k A2s left? Even if the A2s are sold out, expect A3s to be priced aggressively. You also have no proof that consumers have ''no interest'' in HDDVD players. So whose wearing rose-colored AVS glasses here?

When it gets to $199, customers will simply think ''I can't go wrong at that price even if the format fails''.

HiDef4Life

10-29-07, 05:11 PM

He recently “slap” universal to even mention Jaw HD-DVD.:)

Watch TV from time to time.

If Universal wants to release Jaws on HDDVD, there is nothing that Mr. Spielberg can do about it.

SamwisetheBrave

10-29-07, 05:12 PM

There are what, 50k A2s left on clearance? Even if they sell every one, how big of a dent does that make? Come on, a dose of reality here through your rose-colored AVS glasses...

THIS is the talking point of the day: They're "clearance"!
:p:p

MauneyM

10-29-07, 05:52 PM

It would be profit sucide for WB to make ANY changes until after the Xmas buying spree is over.

I disagree. If WB were to go HD DVD exclusive, the 'format war' would effectively end, allowing the fence-sitters to get with the program and buy in.

Think about it: With Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, and WB all on one side - with the more attractive price point and sub $200 players at Sears, Wal-Mart, K-Mart, etc., it would be game over.

Remember Disney and VHS - it wasn't enough to keep DVD from succeeding.....

Now OTOH, if WB were to go BD exclusive, it would be pretty ugly for HD DVD. The price points might still hold BD at bay through the first half of 2008, but......

rto

10-29-07, 06:17 PM

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 07:19 PM

Why on earth would you think that? HD DVD standalones have been around half the price of BD players since inception, and when HD DVD crossed the "magic" $299 price point (maybe you're too young to remeber, but everyone thought the 300 and 250 price points were gonna kill BD sales too) and BD standalones actually caught up and even surpassed monthly sales this summer. What on earth is another $50 going to do?

It is a MYTH that lowering prices automatically drives sales. It only increaes sales when consumer interest already exists to drive sales, and HD DVD simply does not have that.

There are what, 50k A2s left on clearance? Even if they sell every one, how big of a dent does that make? Come on, a dose of reality here through your rose-colored AVS glasses...

What gave you the idea that there were only 50K of A2's "left?" Who said the A2 is out of production? Do you have a link that quotes Toshiba? WM and CC will be selling the A2 at $198 - already started. According to the WM spokesperson . . ."unlimited supply" was what the woman said about how many WM has access to.

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 07:24 PM

I disagree. If WB were to go HD DVD exclusive, the 'format war' would effectively end, allowing the fence-sitters to get with the program and buy in.

Think about it: With Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, and WB all on one side - with the more attractive price point and sub $200 players at Sears, Wal-Mart, K-Mart, etc., it would be game over.

Remember Disney and VHS - it wasn't enough to keep DVD from succeeding.....

Now OTOH, if WB were to go BD exclusive, it would be pretty ugly for HD DVD. The price points might still hold BD at bay through the first half of 2008, but......

Here is the latest data on how the studios are preforming with the consumer and DVD - Q3 results:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/07q3Overall-Small.jpg

Now add up the percentages for each studio . . red versus blue with WB as purple . . then do it again only make WB red. Looks like a 50/50 split with "other" representing about 10% (Weinstein and the like)

It would entrench the war even more IMO. The studio support talking point (who has more) goes away.

rob71

10-29-07, 10:02 PM

If Universal wants to release Jaws on HDDVD, there is nothing that Mr. Spielberg can do about it.

Well, if thats the case one has to wonder why they haven't released it yet. They've intimated it is coming twice now and both times backed away. Why?

PaulGo

10-29-07, 10:08 PM

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Warner makes a "major announcement" at CES in January.

Based on this article it appears WB may be going Blu-ray exclusive.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12051430#post12051430

Kable

10-29-07, 10:11 PM

Well, if thats the case one has to wonder why they haven't released it yet. They've intimated it is coming twice now and both times backed away. Why?

Maybe because his contract with Paramount is almost up and he's thinking about going back to Universal? Both studios are caught in the middle and neither will release a film without his blessing until the ink has dried at whatever studio he chooses. In my opinion.

lip

10-29-07, 10:12 PM

Based on this article it appears WB may be going Blu-ray exclusive.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12051430#post12051430

I think the only people who are in the know are not going to report it at AVS...
Warner is in the middle...what do you suppose they would do at a Bluray meeting...announce HD-DVD exclusivity??

LIP

Timothy Ramzyk

10-29-07, 10:16 PM

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Warner makes a "major announcement" at CES in January.

Then for my money, they better do so at least by then, I'm really, really sick of seeing HDM going nowhere fast.

PaulGo

10-29-07, 10:19 PM

WB could have said nothing but I certainly sounded like they were throwing their support to Blu-ray. But as they say it isn't over until the fat lady sings.:) When and if they come out with a formal announcement we will know for sure.

Lee Stewart

10-29-07, 10:21 PM

Then for my money, they better do so at least by then, I'm really, really sick of seeing HDM going nowhere fast.

Can you imagine another year of this?

Ugh:(

rto

10-29-07, 10:21 PM

Based on this article it appears WB may be going Blu-ray exclusive.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12051430#post12051430

I can't imagine why they would do that, when going with HD DVD has the potential to move things along much more quickly.

Urza

10-29-07, 10:24 PM

Based on this article it appears WB may be going Blu-ray exclusive.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12051430#post12051430

This is FUD.

It does not say that, it does not even APPEAR to say that.

They support both.

PaulGo

10-29-07, 10:25 PM

I can't imagine why they would do that, when going with HD DVD has the potential to move things along much more quickly.

Perhaps because they are selling a higher volume of Blu-ray movies? But let's not turn this into another war thread.

Michael Mullis

10-29-07, 10:45 PM

Perhaps because they are selling a higher volume of Blu-ray movies? But let's not turn this into another war thread.

It's too late for that. All threads on this forum are war threads.

Here is where I have the issue. Warner also had a press event last week I think and Toshiba was there demoing Warner titles on HD DVD.

So if Warner was going to turn one way or the other right now, why would they invite Toshiba to be at their press event, and then turn around and be at the Blu-ray event?

AND while they're touting Blu-ray sales, they also were going to pay close attention to Toshiba's hardware sales this quarter, citing their aggressive player pricing.

AND if they were going to go Blu-ray only, why have Toshiba pack in 300 into all the 3rd generation players??

Sorry. But I am just as skeptical of Warner going Blu as I am of them going Red. It just doesn't make sense considering how out in front of both formats they appear to be.

rto

10-29-07, 10:46 PM

Perhaps because they are selling a higher volume of Blu-ray movies? But let's not turn this into another war thread.

Yes they are, but current volumes are pitifully small on both sides. BD is a year away from being where HD DVD is now, both in terms of hardware pricing and universal platform compatibility with interactive features. By this time next year, the market could be in an accelerating process of consolidation behind the format that's ready for prime time, or.........still treading water. *shrug*

hd nOOb

10-29-07, 10:56 PM

AND if they were going to go Blu-ray only, why have Toshiba pack in 300 into all the 3rd generation players??

.

I've been thinking and Warner is droping blu for this reason.

And the fact that every 360 sold you get a free copy of 300 HD DVD.

PaulGo

10-29-07, 10:59 PM

So if Warner was going to turn one way or the other right now, why would they invite Toshiba to be at their press event, and then turn around and be at the Blu-ray event?

I think this was a Canadian event where both Warner and Toshiba were in attendance. From what I understand The US Warner has the policy making authority not the Canadian division. Perhaps Warner is just tired of this war (aren't we all) and figures the only way for HD media to survive is to pick a side so we only have one HD media standard. This HD-DVD vs Blu-ray war is confusing the general public and not allowing any side to be successful.

BrerBear

10-29-07, 11:02 PM

AND if they were going to go Blu-ray only, why have Toshiba pack in 300 into all the 3rd generation players??

To get rid of them?

ChristopherB

10-29-07, 11:05 PM

I'd be very surprised if Warner had made any decision that they'd hint at it during an event for one side. It seems a lot of us are hoping so big that any positive news becomes some war-shattering event.

rto

10-29-07, 11:09 PM

I think this was a Canadian event where both Warner and Toshiba were in attendance. From what I understand The US Warner has the policy making authority not the Canadian division. Perhaps Warner is just tired of this war (aren't we all) and figures the only way for HD media to survive is to pick a side so we only have one HD media standard. This HD-DVD vs Blu-ray war is confusing the general public and not allowing any side to be successful.

Which isn't helping anyone. Why drag things out another year, and risk consumer disillusionment becoming permanent? Which format will have DVD up-scaling HDM compatible hardware < $99 next year?

mcgarnagle

10-29-07, 11:10 PM

Because until August the perception was that BD was crushing HD DVD.

And guess what? That depressed sales, and even gave BD SA's a boost. People (like me) became resigned that BD was going to be the only game in town, so get ready to fork over $500-600 or wait for the prices to come down.

Then came August, and things changed.

BD's problem now is that everyone will be expecting a similar price drop from the blue side, and until then will either go HD or sit on their wallets.

And that BD player price drop will come. And it's going to hurt the BD CE guys. A lot. This ain't what they were promised.

But I'll be first in line to buy a BD player when it does (already ordered my A2):D

whut?? what changed in August?

rto

10-29-07, 11:15 PM

whut?? what changed in August?

Uh, Paramount......

oliverjg

10-29-07, 11:17 PM

Which isn't helping anyone. Why drag things out another year, and risk consumer disillusionment becoming permanent? Which format will have DVD up-scaling HDM compatible hardware < $99 next year?

to extend that idea a little further...

why wait for enough hdm players out there to start phasing out dvd?

they could start phasing out dvd in '08 using combo/twin discs and they can leverage dvd production equipment to do it.

they don't need to wait years for the two hardware platforms to battle it out and win over consumers. they can just pick hd dvd now and go.

the bd studios will have to keep making dvd and bd at the same time.... or go with hd dvd.

mcgarnagle

10-29-07, 11:18 PM

$199 has always been the critical price point for mass adoption. That has been the historically proven price point for videogames, DVD players, CD players, VCRs and the same for HDDVD.

And do you have proof that there are only 50k A2s left? Even if the A2s are sold out, expect A3s to be priced aggressively. You also have no proof that consumers have ''no interest'' in HDDVD players. So whose wearing rose-colored AVS glasses here?

When it gets to $199, customers will simply think ''I can't go wrong at that price even if the format fails''.

Wrong. The same case was made at $299 5 months back. Celebratory threads were created on this same forum, and speculation was that BD would be destroyed by the cheaper players.

Of course nothing of the sort happened. In fact the sales margins continued to increase in BD's favor, despite the fact that their players cost twice as much, and their most hi profile player was a game console.

I suppose we will have more threads in Feb 08 after Toshiba prices the A3 at $149.

rto

10-29-07, 11:20 PM

to extend that idea a little further...

why wait for enough hdm players out there to start phasing out dvd?

they could start phasing out dvd in '08 using combo/twin discs and they can leverage dvd production equipment to do it.

they don't need to wait years for the two hardware platforms to battle it out and win over consumers. they can just pick hd dvd now and go.

the bd studios will have to keep making dvd and bd at the same time.... or go with hd dvd.

Wasn't that the plan Warner and Paramount cooked up?

rto

10-29-07, 11:27 PM

Wrong. The same case was made at $299 5 months back. Celebratory threads were created on this same forum, and speculation was that BD would be destroyed by the cheaper players.

Of course nothing of the sort happened. In fact the sales margins continued to increase in BD's favor, despite the fact that their players cost twice as much, and their most hi profile player was a game console.

I suppose we will have more threads in Feb 08 after Toshiba prices the A3 at $149.

I think the number of HD DVD hardware units sold between now and CES will decide this. PS3 has been muzzled by a continuing string of stellar titles for 360, and a total absence of system movers in Sony's holiday release schedule. $200 is the traditionally accepted psychological price barrier to mass acceptance of new CE technologies. We'll see what happens.

HiDef4Life

10-30-07, 12:08 AM

Wrong. The same case was made at $299 5 months back. Celebratory threads were created on this same forum, and speculation was that BD would be destroyed by the cheaper players.

Of course nothing of the sort happened. In fact the sales margins continued to increase in BD's favor, despite the fact that their players cost twice as much, and their most hi profile player was a game console.

I suppose we will have more threads in Feb 08 after Toshiba prices the A3 at $149.

$199 has always been the sweet spot for consumer electronics. This isn't even cheap Chinese players but bonafide Toshiba machines. BD is going to get it's clock cleaned this Xmas, book it.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EKF/is_34_47/ai_77453233

Industry pundits have described a $199 price as the "sweet spot" in introducing a new consumer electronics product to the mainstream market. However, even with subsidies by service providers, PVR manufacturers will need reduced bill-of-materials costs to offer the right feature set to mainstream consumers at this price.

HiDef4Life

10-30-07, 12:12 AM

Well, if thats the case one has to wonder why they haven't released it yet. They've intimated it is coming twice now and both times backed away. Why?

Because the amount of HDDVD players on the market currently don't justify ruining their business relationship with Spielberg. Once there are millions of HDDVD players sold, Universal will tell Spielberg to get with the program or get lost.:p

HiDef4Life

10-30-07, 12:15 AM

To get rid of them?

That's the dumbest thing I've heard here so far.:rolleyes: As if Warner is going to give away a blockbuster like 300 to help get rid of HDDVD. :rolleyes:

hconwell

10-30-07, 07:31 AM

I haven't read this entire thread ... but there are some good points in what I did read. And I for one have just about had it with this whole endeavor.

I've invested heavily in both formats in my theater. And it's been now over a year and a half. Fox's move with their further postponements ... and Disney's lack of output. And not to be onesided, is Warner gonna get "Ben-Hur" out the door for Easter '08. I bet not. Universal is putting out a lot of crap. They got off to a good start with "Apollo 13", "Seabiscuit", “Bourne” and others. But IMO, it's been mostly garbage in '07 ... some good ones yes ... but too much crap.

It's very disappointing.

Michael Mullis

10-30-07, 08:13 AM

Wrong. The same case was made at $299 5 months back. Celebratory threads were created on this same forum, and speculation was that BD would be destroyed by the cheaper players..

No it wasn't. And no there weren't. $199 was always the sweet spot for HDM players.

TomsHT

10-30-07, 09:34 AM

Slightly different comparison but there was an article I read yesterday that said that the PS2 sold over 90% of its consoles after getting under the $199 price point and is still outselling the PS3. Again this isnt movies but wondering how much that $199 price point really matters for mass addoption.

Also there was a post saying if Warner would go HD exclusive it would only equal out to a 50/50 studio between formats which I would have to disagree with. The chart presented was not that of media support for High Def formats but of movies in general.

WB has released about one third of all titles available on Blu-ray. There is a large difference from the amount of movies Warner has released compared to other studios including Fox, MGM & even Disney.

Warner going exclusive to either format would effectively end this format war.

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 09:48 AM

Neo1965

10-30-07, 10:00 AM

So we await this apparent WB conference for the Oct31st. Tomorrow. Anyone bringing popcorn tomorrow? How about anyone here willing to camp out the WB gates tonight for a candlelight vigil? :D

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:06 AM

So we await this apparent WB conference for the Oct31st. Tomorrow. Anyone bringing popcorn tomorrow? How about anyone here willing to camp out the WB gates tonight for a candlelight vigil? :D

Maybe we should have a 1 day Poll:

The WB announcement will be:

1. Concerning format exclusivitivity

2. Have nothing to do with HDM

3. I don't care.

:D

TomsHT

10-30-07, 10:07 AM

Sorry Tom . . . your math breaks down if WB goes exclusive. The current stats for WB are because they are neutral.

Actually it doesnt. What was said was that if Warner goes HD exclusive it would only make studio support equal between formats.

There around 100 Warner titles released on Blu-ray and more then that on HD DVD. This is much more support then studios such as Fox who have released what 3 movies in the last 9 months.

Warner going exclusive for either format I think would be devastating for the opposite format.

I'd rather not lose my extras, interactive content, and web enabled features so I hope they choose red.

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:09 AM

Actually it doesnt. What was said was that if Warner goes HD exclusive it would only make studio support equal between formats.

There around 100 Warner titles released on Blu-ray and more then that on HD DVD. This is much more support then studios such as Fox who have released what 3 movies in the last 9 months.

Warner going exclusive for either format I think would be devastating for the opposite format.

I'd rather not lose my extras, interactive content, and web enabled features so I hope they choose red.

I was the one who posted the chart.

I was questioning the issue that WB sells almost 30% of all HDM titles. That % would change if they went exclusive.

Here again is the chart:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/07q3Overall-Small.jpg

The chart does back up the fact that if WB went HD exclusive then it would be 50/50 as far as studio support.

TomsHT

10-30-07, 10:17 AM

I was the one who posted the chart.

I was questioning the issue that WB sells almost 30% of all HDM titles. That % would change if they went exclusive.

Here again is the chart:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/07q3Overall-Small.jpg

The chart does back up the fact that if WB went HD exclusive then it would be 50/50 as far as studio support.

There is currently 360 titles release for HD DVD and 346 titles on Blu-ray. If

Warner went exclusive to either format then either Blu-ray would lose the support of 100 titles and HD DVD even more titles then that.

At that point it would hardly be a 50/50 split while one format clearly has one third more titles then the other

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:24 AM

There is currently 360 titles release for HD DVD and 346 titles on Blu-ray. If

Warner went exclusive to either format then either Blu-ray would lose the support of 100 titles and HD DVD even more titles then that.

At that point it would hardly be a 50/50 split while one format clearly has one third more titles then the other

You are talking number of titles - I am talking about studio support. We need to get on the same page.:D

OBTW - Fox just announced their goal for 2008 will be 100 titles. See HDD for the article.

TomsHT

10-30-07, 10:30 AM

You are talking number of titles - I am talking about studio support. We need to get on the same page.:D

OBTW - Fox just announced their goal for 2008 will be 100 titles. See HDD for the article.

Yes that was my point that there were other points of view to this supposed studio support. It makes no difference to me if a format is claiming more studio support but the bottom line is there is more movies in another format.

Didnt Fox claim 100 titles for 2007? I wonder if there the same titles.

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:32 AM

Yes that was my point that there were other points of view to this supposed studio support. It makes no difference to me if a format is claiming more studio support but the bottom line is there is more movies in another format.

Didnt Fox claim 100 titles for 2007? I wonder if there the same titles.

Now we are on the same page . . .

20th Century "Cancellation King" Fox

:D

TomsHT

10-30-07, 10:37 AM

Now we are on the same page . . .

20th Century "Cancellation King" Fox

:D

:D :D :D

PaulGo

10-30-07, 10:38 AM

If this "war" does end what are we going to do with all of our free time? Watch movies? After these debates it would be to boring!:D

TomsHT

10-30-07, 10:41 AM

If this "war" does end what are we going to do with all of our free time? Watch movies? After these debates it would be to boring!:D

Naaaa then the debates will just change to favoring competing studios and CE companies ;)

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:43 AM

If this "war" does end what are we going to do with all of our free time? Watch movies? After these debates it would be to boring!:D

Yes . . .

10/31 - WB announces exclusive support for HD DVD - ALL BD players explode and become worthless including the PS3

10/31 - WB announces exclusive support for BD - ALL HD DVD players explode and become worthless including the 360 AO.

As long as there is one person here at AVS who is still playing the losing format - we will STILL have debates/arguments/discussions and polls.

:D

rob71

10-30-07, 10:48 AM

Because the amount of HDDVD players on the market currently don't justify ruining their business relationship with Spielberg. Once there are millions of HDDVD players sold, Universal will tell Spielberg to get with the program or get lost.:p

So how many millions of players are worth it? One, two, ten? You planning on holding onto that dream for five to ten years?:p

Lee Stewart

10-30-07, 10:54 AM

So how many millions of players are worth it? One, two, ten? You planning on holding onto that dream for five to ten years?:p

Well that is what it took to get E.T on DVD AND the Star Wars trilogy. Just look at the issue dates for both - then look at the number of DVD players in the wild at the time.

price3

10-30-07, 10:57 AM

anotheraviator

10-30-07, 12:57 PM

I think if Warner chooses BD, the war will not end next year because Unversal will not switch right away and Paramount/Dreamworks cannot switch contractually next year at all. Even if HD DVD is doomed, they will sell a ton of $200 players this fall. The only scenario that will forcast a single fomat war win is Warner choosing HD DVD, causing Disney to follow suit to at least neutral. Fox and Sony will make BD discs until 2009 no matter what I'd say. With Endgaget claiming BD+ has been hacked, perhaps Fox will go neutral mid to late '08. Best guess is still a dual format future.

Warner going HD-DVD would end the war quicker than going BD. It would also put the entire state of affairs into a much better place.

Warner going BD would end the war slower than going HD-DVD. It would create a bit of a mess at the start which would slow HDM for a bit but eventually it would kill HD-DVD.

Why?

Warner announces HD-DVD exclusivity tomorrow, and they've got a ready made boom starting November 3rd. Every one of those sub $199 players would sell. Hundreds of thousands of units would move in November with sales continuing right through Q1'08. It's a product at the right price. It just needs some stability.. something Warner could do with an exlusivity press bi*ch slap. The format is ready to rock. No issues with profiles. No issues with IME. No fake PIP. The replication exists everywhere -- they don't need to rely on a competiting studio to do their replication. You would see total HD-DVD adoption by early next year... especially at those prices. Many PS3 owners a BD owners would pick up a $169 player and go neutral until eventually BD became a PS3 format.

on the other hand...

Warner goes BD tomorrow, and they're in a bit of an issue. The cheapest players are still $449. Well out of the reach of most consumers. It's kept to those with a LOT of extra money to spend on technology. Upper-middle class types. Then they've got an issue where there are no 1.1 players available on the shelves yet. Sure they are close, but not yet. When they are available, they cause further consumer confusion. Which one to get? Why is this player $449 and this one is $499? What's 1.0 vs. 1.1. What movie is this in my hand? Is this a 1.1 or a 1.0? Can it play in my player? PS3 has officially keeled over and died. Everyone knows they can't rely on a future of sales from PS3. Anyone with HD-DVD will likely not go format neutral because it could cost them at least $399 (and that's if they want a gimped out PS3). Finally, 2.0 would come to the plate and REALLY confuse the heck out of everyone. Basically, HDM would stall until the profiles and the pricing was more in line with where HD-DVD is now. I'd say it would take about a year.

This time next year things could be good for Bluray.

This time THIS year, things could be great for HD-DVD.. if Warner makes the right choice.

TomsHT

10-30-07, 01:05 PM

The only benefit I can see that Warner has for making an announcement like this currently is that it will push both formats to offer Warner better "incentives" then other studios before the end of the year.

rob71

10-30-07, 01:08 PM

Warner going HD-DVD would end the war quicker than going BD. It would also put the entire state of affairs into a much better place.

Warner going BD would end the war slower than going HD-DVD. It would create a bit of a mess at the start which would slow HDM for a bit but eventually it would kill HD-DVD.

Why?

Warner announces HD-DVD exclusivity tomorrow, and they've got a ready made boom starting November 3rd. Every one of those sub $199 players would sell. Hundreds of thousands of units would move in November with sales continuing right through Q1'08. It's a product at the right price. It just needs some stability.. something Warner could do with an exlusivity press bi*ch slap. The format is ready to rock. No issues with profiles. No issues with IME. No fake PIP. The replication exists everywhere -- they don't need to rely on a competiting studio to do their replication. You would see total HD-DVD adoption by early next year... especially at those prices. Many PS3 owners a BD owners would pick up a $169 player and go neutral until eventually BD became a PS3 format.

on the other hand...

Warner goes BD tomorrow, and they're in a bit of an issue. The cheapest players are still $449. Well out of the reach of most consumers. It's kept to those with a LOT of extra money to spend on technology. Upper-middle class types. Then they've got an issue where there are no 1.1 players available on the shelves yet. Sure they are close, but not yet. When they are available, they cause further consumer confusion. Which one to get? Why is this player $449 and this one is $499? What's 1.0 vs. 1.1. What movie is this in my hand? Is this a 1.1 or a 1.0? Can it play in my player? PS3 has officially keeled over and died. Everyone knows they can't rely on a future of sales from PS3. Anyone with HD-DVD will likely not go format neutral because it could cost them at least $399 (and that's if they want a gimped out PS3). Finally, 2.0 would come to the plate and REALLY confuse the heck out of everyone. Basically, HDM would stall until the profiles and the pricing was more in line with where HD-DVD is now. I'd say it would take about a year.

This time next year things could be good for Bluray.

This time THIS year, things could be great for HD-DVD.. if Warner makes the right choice.

Or...Warner goes Blu-Ray exclusive, HD DVD players sit on the shelves. Universal goes neutral and Paramount becomes the lone "temporary" holdout.

price3

10-30-07, 01:41 PM

The HD DVD players would only sit on the shelves if consumers were informed, which they are not. Tons of HD DVD players are going to sell this fall just based on the titles that are already on the shelves. Even if EVERY studio went BD only a lot of HD DVD players would still sell at 199. I have always believed the format neutral studios were hurting the adoption of HD media, and will be fine with whichever side wins, but I cannot think of any reason to pick Blu exclusive rather than red. I truly believe Blu ray is the more advanced technology, but the DVD PRG has put together a much better package than the Blu guys.

hd nOOb

10-30-07, 02:04 PM

Warner going HD-DVD would end the war quicker than going BD. It would also put the entire state of affairs into a much better place.

Warner going BD would end the war slower than going HD-DVD. It would create a bit of a mess at the start which would slow HDM for a bit but eventually it would kill HD-DVD.

Why?

Warner announces HD-DVD exclusivity tomorrow, and they've got a ready made boom starting November 3rd. Every one of those sub $199 players would sell. Hundreds of thousands of units would move in November with sales continuing right through Q1'08. It's a product at the right price. It just needs some stability.. something Warner could do with an exlusivity press bi*ch slap. The format is ready to rock. No issues with profiles. No issues with IME. No fake PIP. The replication exists everywhere -- they don't need to rely on a competiting studio to do their replication. You would see total HD-DVD adoption by early next year... especially at those prices. Many PS3 owners a BD owners would pick up a $169 player and go neutral until eventually BD became a PS3 format.

on the other hand...

Warner goes BD tomorrow, and they're in a bit of an issue. The cheapest players are still $449. Well out of the reach of most consumers. It's kept to those with a LOT of extra money to spend on technology. Upper-middle class types. Then they've got an issue where there are no 1.1 players available on the shelves yet. Sure they are close, but not yet. When they are available, they cause further consumer confusion. Which one to get? Why is this player $449 and this one is $499? What's 1.0 vs. 1.1. What movie is this in my hand? Is this a 1.1 or a 1.0? Can it play in my player? PS3 has officially keeled over and died. Everyone knows they can't rely on a future of sales from PS3. Anyone with HD-DVD will likely not go format neutral because it could cost them at least $399 (and that's if they want a gimped out PS3). Finally, 2.0 would come to the plate and REALLY confuse the heck out of everyone. Basically, HDM would stall until the profiles and the pricing was more in line with where HD-DVD is now. I'd say it would take about a year.

This time next year things could be good for Bluray.

This time THIS year, things could be great for HD-DVD.. if Warner makes the right choice.

Very good post, as and HD DVD suporter I fell the same way. I will wait until the full profile compliant players enter the market.

audioNeil

10-30-07, 02:20 PM

Warner going HD-DVD would end the war quicker than going BD. It would also put the entire state of affairs into a much better place.

Warner going BD would end the war slower than going HD-DVD. It would create a bit of a mess at the start which would slow HDM for a bit but eventually it would kill HD-DVD.

Why?

Warner announces HD-DVD exclusivity tomorrow, and they've got a ready made boom starting November 3rd. Every one of those sub $199 players would sell. Hundreds of thousands of units would move in November with sales continuing right through Q1'08. It's a product at the right price. It just needs some stability.. something Warner could do with an exlusivity press bi*ch slap. The format is ready to rock. No issues with profiles. No issues with IME. No fake PIP. The replication exists everywhere -- they don't need to rely on a competiting studio to do their replication. You would see total HD-DVD adoption by early next year... especially at those prices. Many PS3 owners a BD owners would pick up a $169 player and go neutral until eventually BD became a PS3 format.

on the other hand...

Warner goes BD tomorrow, and they're in a bit of an issue. The cheapest players are still $449. Well out of the reach of most consumers. It's kept to those with a LOT of extra money to spend on technology. Upper-middle class types. Then they've got an issue where there are no 1.1 players available on the shelves yet. Sure they are close, but not yet. When they are available, they cause further consumer confusion. Which one to get? Why is this player $449 and this one is $499? What's 1.0 vs. 1.1. What movie is this in my hand? Is this a 1.1 or a 1.0? Can it play in my player? PS3 has officially keeled over and died. Everyone knows they can't rely on a future of sales from PS3. Anyone with HD-DVD will likely not go format neutral because it could cost them at least $399 (and that's if they want a gimped out PS3). Finally, 2.0 would come to the plate and REALLY confuse the heck out of everyone. Basically, HDM would stall until the profiles and the pricing was more in line with where HD-DVD is now. I'd say it would take about a year.

This time next year things could be good for Bluray.

This time THIS year, things could be great for HD-DVD.. if Warner makes the right choice.

Sorry to quote the whole thing, but I feel exactly this way! Warner could decide the war -- but how can they choose BD? It is a year too early for BD to be competitive on price, or to have a finished product. Silverberg already said it was dangerous to rely on gamers to be your only buyers. HDDVD is the only exclusive choice that makes sense today.

By next year, the choice will be more clearly visible. That's why I think Warner will wait.

Oops -- we're straying off topic a bit aren't we?