Why?

Because backwards compatibility allows for the phasing out of older technology.

The primary advantage that HDM SAL players have over DVD players ten years ago is that they can play DVDs, whereas DVD players could not play VHS tapes. As the prices of HDM SAL players fall below the $99 mark, manufacturers will have little reason to continue producing SAL DVD players, as a SAL HDM player will do everything a DVD player can plus more, and consumers will have little reason, if any, not to go for the HDM player. Manufacturers can phase out DVD players, leaving consumers no choice but to go with HDM players.

Also, as the HDM player install base grows, studios will have little reason to produce their movies on both DVD and HDM, so they'll eventually move to just HDM. Of course, this won't begin to happen until HDM reaches a 90+% adoption rate.

Much like HDTV vs SDTV, consumers will be guided by lack of options more than anything else. Manufacturers will phase out DVD, and thus HDM will take over.

All of this is very different from the DVD/VHS scenario. People needed to continue buying VHS players to support their catalogue of VHS movies, and didn't want to spend more money to have both a DVD player and a VHS player.

Basically, in a few years, as people's DVD players break, they'll have little reason not to upgrade to an HDM player, as it is just as cheap as a DVD player and will still play their DVDs. Thus HDM will gradually take over.

***HOWEVER***

This assumes that there is an eventual winner to this format war. If this war is never decided, then the uptake of HDM will be far slower, as once again people will be forced to go with multiple players, much like VHS/DVD. That is, of course, until dual-format players become widely available and reach the sub-$99 mark. Then, the scenario presented above will still take place, imo.

I also believe that HDM will be the last hard disc media used for media distribution, eventually being replaced by digital distribution. However, I also believe that the transition from HDM to digital distribution will take far longer than the transition from VHS to DVD or DVD to HDM, because of the slow adoption of high bandwidth internet and the convenience and reliability of hard disc media.

Thoughts?

So will they start offering HDM in minivans with 10 screens? Will all the 7 to 10 inch portable DVD players be HD?

Maybe, buy not for a VERY long time. My bet is that digital downloads take over instead of discs.

I think you're right that HDM will replace DVDs. Lower priced HDM players, mass adoption of HD capable sets and exposure to HD content should help drive this. Dualing formats is the fly in the ointment however. As we can see right now HD-DVD players are already at a sub $200 price point! $99 players may be as soon as a year or so away. If the "war" doesn't end then it is dual format players (3 if you include DVD) and these aren't going to get to this price point for some time (from what I understand the Blu-Ray lense hardware etc is more costly).

I still think there will be a hard based medium after HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. Deep color, 2k, or 4k resolutions might eventually make it to our living rooms. I could see the current HDM being the defacto home standard for the next 10, 15, or 20 years though. Who is even broadcasting 1080p yet? Heck, my satellite carrier has been doing some compression lately sacrificing the signal for additional channels. It will be some time before stuff beyond 1080p becomes readily available for home use.

I believe that hdm WILL replace DVD as the standard despite lack of consumer interest

Well you should get a 50/50 mix of those that agree with you and those that don't. That was the result of a poll I ran a while ago asking . . "Will HDM be a niche product" which is the flipside of your question/statement.

IMO . . . HDM . . either 2 formats or one format - LD Part 2 - Niche.

Why?

Because backwards compatibility allows for the phasing out of older technology.

Why hasn't DVD replaced audio CDs? DVD can do everything that CD can, and more. And almost everyone owns a DVD player. It seems there is "little reason" to keep making CDs.

The studios will drop DVD when it's in their best interest to do so. In other words, once there's greater market penetration of HDM. That may happen sooner than a lot of us had previously thought being that there's already an HDM player on the market for less than $200 at Wally World. This is only the beginning. In a year from now I fully expect HDM sales to be hot hot hot!

Samsung dual format player, $800 street price this year. By the end of next year, this same player will be a LOT cheaper. A dual format player that is also one of the best upconverting DVD players ever made for $400ish within a year. Half of that within 2 years.

I don't think the majority of consumer interest will happen until those dual players reach that level. HD-DVD has 2 major exclusive studios and a couple of exclusive smaller ones (weinstein and dreamworks), while bluray has 3 major studios and a couple smaller ones. Noone who buys one of the formats is going to be truly happy with their limited selection when they see the blue or red on the other side with movies they want to see.

Samsung dual format player, $800 street price this year. By the end of next year, this same player will be a LOT cheaper. A dual format player that is also one of the best upconverting DVD players ever made for $400ish within a year. Half of that within 2 years.

I don't think the majority of consumer interest will happen until those dual players reach that level. HD-DVD has 2 major exclusive studios and a couple of exclusive smaller ones (weinstein and dreamworks), while bluray has 3 major studios and a couple smaller ones. Noone who buys one of the formats is going to be truly happy with their limited selection when they see the blue or red on the other side with movies they want to see.

Please keep in mind that the public does not need HDM to see movies in HD. There are plenty of movies in HD on HD CBL and HD SAT. Are they as good as HDM - no . . but they are a damn sight better than SD movies on CBL or SAT.

This is the biggest hurdle HDM has to overcome. And so far . . . it is not doing well.

The other big hurdle is the HDMI UP DVD player for less than $100 - and no special discs needed to get an increase in the PQ.

People here think that rest of the world thinks like they do. . . .like AV Geeks. Well guess what . . they are dead wrong. This "man in the mirror" opinion stated like it is supposed to speak for the masses is ludicraious at best.

And less than 20% of all people who have an HDTV are actually watching HD on that HDTV. So all of a sudden - there will be an awaking?

In time . . . in time there will be a replacement for HD DVD and BD. Time is running out as a matter of fact.

Niche formats IMO will no longer be supported like they have in the past. Too much effort for not enough dollars.

Well, at this point I no longer believe HDM will replace DVDs.

Or at least not sooner than in, say, 10-15 years.

Studios are doing their best to alienate the early adopters / tech people by putting more sophisticated DRM schemes on the HDM titles. Playback problems and HDCP compliance do no good for anyone except very few.

Eventially Studios might succeed in their quest.
The same way SACD succeeded.

I think the issue with this is many will not just toss their current DVD players for new HDM player. As the saying go if it isn't broke why fix it.

So before they stop making DVDs they have to get a good chuck of HDM players in homes

Why hasn't DVD replaced audio CDs? DVD can do everything that CD can, and more. And almost everyone owns a DVD player. It seems there is "little reason" to keep making CDs.


Because my car still has a CD player.

You know, it's remarkable that DVD found any interest at all because it took away the number one use for VHS: you could record TV with it.

DVD prospered because it delivered somewhat better PQ (although not many could really tell the difference -- on most sets of the day the difference was marginal) and was much more convenient to rent, store and access contents quickly. Plus studios started to add content you couldn't get on VHS. After a ramp up period, DVDs became cheaper to produce as well allowing titles to be sold for less than VHS prices.

Just as the music industry had done with CDs vs. LPs, studios started to be more selective about what was released on VHS and finally made it clear only big titles would be available in VHS. Finally the VHS market was left to 2nd and 3rd tier outfits doing cheap knock off collections for bargain bins.

You'll start to see this in 2008 if the studios are really serious about adopting a format (or, heavens, even two formats) to replace DVD. First it will be titles like the remastered Star Trek: TOS Season One which, while a combo disc, isn't actually available in SD DVD. That was the intent of HD DVD combos and perhaps we'll see some strategic releases that way.

If not, it's easy to imagine some titles coming out that bring the cost more in line. Heroes Season One features 7 discs ... for $70. If they can release titles at this price, I can imagine $14.95 street price for lots of 2nd and third retreads -- what about Michael J Fox trilogy Back To The Future? That's, coincidentally, a Universal title just as Heroes is. There are no shortage of titles that could be released in a new HD DVD "family priced" special editions with proper HD remastering, some updates with extras (possibly from previous special editions), and cookie-cutter interactive things that made sense to each title. The unique, envelope pushing stuff would remain with the premium titles.

In this regard, I don't see Blu-ray having a chance ... unless HD DVD drops the ball and lets the interactive thing languish till 2009. I know many people believe connecting an HD DVD player to the net seems unlikely for most people but today's consumer is much more in tune with such changes. It would help if Toshiba released a wireless enabled player, or someone released an add-on gizmo that easily integrated to provide wireless support to existing players. Every laptop these days "finds" the inhome router ... HD DVD will be doing that sooner rather than later ... as will future TVs.

Why hasn't DVD replaced audio CDs? DVD can do everything that CD can, and more. And almost everyone owns a DVD player. It seems there is "little reason" to keep making CDs.
Because you can't buy music on a DVD? You can, however, buy the same movie on both HDM and DVD.

I think the issue with this is many will not just toss their current DVD players for new HDM player. As the saying go if it isn't broke why fix it.

So before they stop making DVDs they have to get a good chuck of HDM players in homes

If you read the OP, I said that as people buy new players, they will go with an HD player over a DVD player. I didn't say they'd just chuck their old player out the window, but if they DO choose to buy a new player (whether it's because it's broken, or they want a new player for a second TV, w/e) they' get an HDM player.

You know, it's remarkable that DVD found any interest at all because it took away the number one use for VHS: you could record TV with it.

DVD prospered because it delivered somewhat better PQ (although not many could really tell the difference -- on most sets of the day the difference was marginal) and was much more convenient to rent, store and access contents quickly. Plus studios started to add content you couldn't get on VHS. After a ramp up period, DVDs became cheaper to produce as well allowing titles to be sold for less than VHS prices.

Just as the music industry had done with CDs vs. LPs, studios started to be more selective about what was released on VHS and finally made it clear only big titles would be available in VHS. Finally the VHS market was left to 2nd and 3rd tier outfits doing cheap knock off collections for bargain bins.

You'll start to see this in 2008 if the studios are really serious about adopting a format (or, heavens, even two formats) to replace DVD. First it will be titles like the remastered Star Trek: TOS Season One which, while a combo disc, isn't actually available in SD DVD. That was the intent of HD DVD combos and perhaps we'll see some strategic releases that way.

If not, it's easy to imagine some titles coming out that bring the cost more in line. Heroes Season One features 7 discs ... for $70. If they can release titles at this price, I can imagine $14.95 street price for lots of 2nd and third retreads -- what about Michael J Fox trilogy Back To The Future? That's, coincidentally, a Universal title just as Heroes is. There are no shortage of titles that could be released in a new HD DVD "family priced" special editions with proper HD remastering, some updates with extras (possibly from previous special editions), and cookie-cutter interactive things that made sense to each title. The unique, envelope pushing stuff would remain with the premium titles.

In this regard, I don't see Blu-ray having a chance ... unless HD DVD drops the ball and lets the interactive thing languish till 2009. I know many people believe connecting an HD DVD player to the net seems unlikely for most people but today's consumer is much more in tune with such changes. It would help if Toshiba released a wireless enabled player, or someone released an add-on gizmo that easily integrated to provide wireless support to existing players. Every laptop these days "finds" the inhome router ... HD DVD will be doing that sooner rather than later ... as will future TVs.

This has to do with HDM in general. Why did you bring up HD vs Blu-Ray?

DVD players may last a very long. Time unlike VHS Machines not much can were out. I've got a DVD player from 1997 that still works great.
I think that's what's tough how many players will break down. Enough for every one to replace them. Well I don't know..

Also with VHS to DVD the physcail media was very different. Confusing a VHS and DVD is not going to happen.
On the other had DVD vs HDM. The media is the same size. It looks the same.
The only differnce is the cases.
I work in retail and have already seem a half dozon returns from folk buying the wrong disc. They say it doesn't work in theirt DVD player. I say its a new format. Show them the players. In most cases thay just want the DVD and can't belive another format is out in fact 2 formats.

So will they start offering HDM in minivans with 10 screens? Will all the 7 to 10 inch portable DVD players be HD?

Maybe, buy not for a VERY long time. My bet is that digital downloads take over instead of discs.

Your downloads will not be playable in your minivan either without a new player. Downloads will be full of DRM.

Because you can't buy music on a DVD? You can, however, buy the same movie on both HDM and DVD.

That's not even an attempt at an answer. Okay, I'll answer my own question. The reason why DVD hasn't replaced CD is: (1) Although DVD players are commonplace, there are still a lot of CD-only players in the world, and (2) Cost. DVDs are more expensive to make, particularly if problem (1) is solved by including a CD in the product. Trying to force a transition in the absence of consumer demand would just be throwing money away.

The point is, consumer demand is a necessary ingredient. Nobody is going to waste money force-feeding a product to people who don't want it.

So will they start offering HDM in minivans with 10 screens? Will all the 7 to 10 inch portable DVD players be HD?

Maybe, buy not for a VERY long time.

Don't know about portable players, but HDM in minivans may not be too far off :)
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2007/10/25/panasonic_car_blu-ray/

Backwards compatibility of disks would help a lot.

Even if Joe Consumer buys a new TV and an HDM player is thrown in for free, Joe Consumer may be hesitant to buy HDM disks because he has two others TVs in his house without HDM players and a DVD player in his minivan.

HD DVD did a poor job of dual format disks. License fees made it expensive, double-sided is ugly, and it was bad timing! Early adopters want the best, not a compromise. The time to come out with the compromise is later, for Joe Consumer.

makingmusic, it's hard to respond and not bring one side or the other into this. But that said, we're about to find out if your point is valid.

We now have the price for an HDM player I said was the "sweet spot". If I didn't already own the Xbox 360 Add-On right now, I would be out at whatever Wal-Mart right now had the A2 in stock and would be a new HD DVD owner. $198 is hard to pass up if you were waiting for the price to drop before you got into HD DVD.

Can that be said for many people on the fence? Now is the time we're going to find out.

I'm sorry, but I don't see HDM being anything other than a niche product.

1) Overall costs for HDM are far too high. Even factoring in a $149 player, the costs are too great, since the consumer will also need to buy the following items to fully utilize HDM.

a) HDTV
b) AV amp
c) 5 speakers
d) subwoofer
e) speaker wiring

Of course, HDM can be enjoyed without (b-e) but the impact is reduced. How many people will really spend the money to wire 5/7 speakers, or have bare wire draped all over the floor? Overall, the costs are significant, not to mention the time, hassle, and techical expertise that is required to set all this up.

2) Software prices are ridculously high. $25 for a movie that will be watched once or twice is ok for a hit like Transformers, but who will pay this much for catalog titles. Average prices need to get down to about 17-18 tops.

We've seen what happened to SACD/DVD-a. Superior multi-channel format that was scorned by the general public due to cost and complexity, superceded now by crap like iTunes. HDM will meet a similar fate by 2008 if the sales for Q4 continue to lag. The performance by Transformers was truly disappointing....as it will probably only do about ~250,000 units for the year.

I'm sorry, but I don't see HDM being anything other than a niche product.

1) Overall costs for HDM are far too high. Even factoring in a $149 player, the costs are too great, since the consumer will also need to buy the following items to fully utilize HDM.

a) HDTV
b) AV amp
c) 5 speakers
d) subwoofer
e) speaker wiring

Of course, HDM can be enjoyed without (b-e) but the impact is reduced. How many people will really spend the money to wire 5/7 speakers, or have bare wire draped all over the floor? Overall, the costs are significant, not to mention the time, hassle, and techical expertise that is required to set all this up.

2) Software prices are ridculously high. $25 for a movie that will be watched once or twice is ok for a hit like Transformers, but who will pay this much for catalog titles. Average prices need to get down to about 17-18 tops.

We've seen what happened to SACD/DVD-a. Superior multi-channel format that was scorned by the general public due to cost and complexity, superceded now by crap like iTunes. HDM will meet a similar fate by 2008 if the sales for Q4 continue to lag. The performance by Transformers was truly disappointing....as it will probably only do about ~250,000 units for the year.

I'm sorry, I don't believe cost and complexity was a major factor in the DVD-A/SACD war. It was because audio is the least important factor for 99.9% of music listeners out there. Video quality for a movie is a big factor. If it wasn't we would all be watching single layer DVD's with a 2.5 gig encode and nobody would complain. DVD cost as much or more than HDM does today when it started out. You need to go through the proper cycle of prices to get to mass adoption. You can't look at the initialization stage as what the future pricing and features of HDM discs will be.

I'm sorry, I don't believe cost and complexity was a major factor in the DVD-A/SACD war. It was because audio is the least important factor for 99.9% of music listeners out there. Video quality for a movie is a big factor. If it wasn't we would all be watching single layer DVD's with a 2.5 gig encode and nobody would complain. DVD cost as much or more than HDM does today when it started out. You need to go through the proper cycle of prices to get to mass adoption. You can't look at the initialization stage as what the future pricing and features of HDM discs will be.

Yet HDM is at 2% marketshare after almost 2 years of release. You have to remember that Sony is basically bankrupting its gaming division to put BD on its PS3, so even the 2% is inflated. If only standalone players were available, it would probably be at around ~1%.

And as for picture quality, I'm afraid that most people WON'T spending thousands of dollars to get a clearer picture.

In 2 years, why would a manufacturer continue to make standalone dvd players? What possible feature could be added to a dvd player? I think by that time, when one is shopping for a new player, the ONLY choice will be HD players.

It took a while for HDTVs to catch on. I've had mine for 6 years, but it's only been in the past two years that others I've known (not early adopters) have started picking them up. I think comparison of HDM to DVD might not be as accurate as the adoption of HDTV.

Video quality for a movie is a big factor. If it wasn't we would all be watching single layer DVD's with a 2.5 gig encode and nobody would complain.
Many people are watching low quality encodes - bit-torrented downloads, bootleg DVDs, You-Tube, not to mention standard-definition television broadcasts.

Many people are watching low quality encodes - bit-torrented downloads, bootleg DVDs, You-Tube, not to mention standard-definition television broadcasts.

because they are FREEEEEEEEE, that's the point. I know several people who use 700 meg videos from torrents and they all say the same thing when I ask them why they would watch that crappy quality..... "It's free". They all own lots of discs that they like, most people use those crappy quality ones as nothing but a rental service. To see if they like a movie etc... Anyone who will pay for media buys the quality stuff.

I'm sorry, but I don't see HDM being anything other than a niche product.

1) Overall costs for HDM are far too high. Even factoring in a $149 player, the costs are too great, since the consumer will also need to buy the following items to fully utilize HDM.

a) HDTV
b) AV amp
c) 5 speakers
d) subwoofer
e) speaker wiring

Of course, HDM can be enjoyed without (b-e) but the impact is reduced. How many people will really spend the money to wire 5/7 speakers, or have bare wire draped all over the floor? Overall, the costs are significant, not to mention the time, hassle, and techical expertise that is required to set all this up.

2) Software prices are ridculously high. $25 for a movie that will be watched once or twice is ok for a hit like Transformers, but who will pay this much for catalog titles. Average prices need to get down to about 17-18 tops.

We've seen what happened to SACD/DVD-a. Superior multi-channel format that was scorned by the general public due to cost and complexity, superceded now by crap like iTunes. HDM will meet a similar fate by 2008 if the sales for Q4 continue to lag. The performance by Transformers was truly disappointing....as it will probably only do about ~250,000 units for the year.

The difference now is that the "niche" has grown. The niche of the home theater enthusiast I mean. Back when VHS went to DVD, people were making the shift while still watching it on a little 27" TV with sound coming out of their TV's speakers. They didn't own "home theaters" (widscreen TVs with surround sound systems).

Since the onset of DVD, the home cinema has evolved. Mass amounts of people have purchased HDTVs or at least larger TVs than they used to watch with VHS, and many have also installed surround sound systems (HTIBs mainly).

The home cinema experience has changed. In these home cinema systems that many more people now sit in every night, HDM can be experienced with a greater difference in video and audio quality than DVD ever showed over VHS.

Couple that with the points that the op made about HDM players coming down to the same price points as current DVD and upconverting DVD players are at, and finally with slowly dropping HDM disk prices, and you have all the factors of mass adoption at some point over the next couple years.

My 2 cents.