NOTE - for anyone who thinks this doesn't belong here, I'd remind everyone that Gruberts identical thread for Q4 07 has been up here in the same place for weeks, so it surely would seem both relevant and properly placed.

OK - so we see that HD DVD can pretty much match Bluray numbers now - and the last 8 weeks of Nielsen have averaged 60:40 BD:HD

And, in the last two days we have learned of $199 HD DVD players at Walmart and Circuit City, with talk that Best Buy will probably match. And we've also heard of a half-day sale at Sears for an A3 at only $169!

So we can see that HD DVD is making it's mass-market push, now. Hundreds of thousands of people will probably buy HD DVD by January 1st, and they'll be buying SCADS of movies in January of next year.

If HD DVD reaches 1,000,000 standalone players the software sales will probably equal the equivalent of 7,000,000 PS3 owners.

SOOooo.... it'll be a COMPLETELY different ballgame in January 2008, for the Nielsen numbers (and will probably even start changing to HD DVD before the end of 2007 even).

HOW MANY weeks do you think that Bluray will win in the Nielsen First Alert data during January 2008?

how about an option for "who cares"

Once the new owners of A2s have watched their free movies, the game is on! I say BluRay takes the first couple of weeks and HDDVD takes it from there. Similar to the PS3 effect last year.

price drops (sub 200),bogo deal for hddvd,ao hddvd packin deal with the 360,stand alone ao price dropped to 99 and warner going to hddvd = blu-ray death march,imo

Looking at the solid line-up Blu-ray has on the 8th, I'd say all of 'em.

And yes, I do believe that content is king.

Oh and to all those who are banking solely on HD players' sales for the victor of their format of choice:

Haven't you thought that software, movies and other content are deciding factors, as well? I mean what use is a cheapo-HD-DVD player or a neutered PS3 if I can't get to watch the movies I want?

The next couple of months will prove interesting, no doubt.

More of the same Four for four.

holy crap are yall gonna make these threads for the rest of this format debacle? who really cares how many weeks bd or hd wins anyway?

More of the same Four for four.I voted "Bluray has already won the war!" because the BDA told me that last week. (http://www.oto-online.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=653&Itemid=49) BDA is always right.

Peter Weber of the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) provided an overview of the state of the format ("We are the winner!" he proclaimed confidently), and Jeremy Wills of Understanding & Solutions produced figures on the future of the BD market.

I voted "Bluray has already won the war!" because the BDA told me that last week. (http://www.oto-online.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=653&Itemid=49) BDA is always right.

While technically your right, Toshiba should be allowed the chance to save face and bow out on their own.:p

While technically your right, Toshiba should be allowed the chance to save face and bow out on their own.:pDang, Rob. It appears from early returns that AVS Forum doesn't agree. I'm going back to blu-ray.com, where my analysis can be appreciated and my opinions fully vetted...

You have been banned for the following reason:
Trolling. If you aren't here for Blu-ray then move along.

Date the ban will be lifted: NeverWhoops... :(

Does anybody else see the irony in these threads where half the posters are making fun of Sony for declaring that Blu-ray has already won, and then the other half are declaring that HD-DVD has already won?

To answer the question, I think it's hard to determine exactly what the numbers will be like since both the HD-DVD and blu-ray camps are making a holiday push. Blu-ray seems to be focusing on software and HD-DVD seems to be focusing on hardware.

Prima facie this makes sense, since the quickest way for HD-DVD to increase its sales base is to get its hardware into the hands of consumers. Blu-ray, on the other hand, already has a great deal of latent demand in people who own PS3s but aren't into Blu-ray. So their approach is to spur software sales to increase their attach rates on the PS3s that are already out there.

I think cases could be made either way for whose approach is going to be more successful, but my take is that Blu-ray has had a lot of momentum the past couple weeks but these cheap HD-DVD players are going a long way to reversing that.

Does anybody else see the irony in these threads where half the posters are making fun of Sony for declaring that Blu-ray has already won, and then the other half are declaring that HD-DVD has already won?

lol +1

rdjam,

bd will sell just as many discs because they will discount the software... just like they did for transformers week.

the people will buy the ps3 just like they did last year.

the retailers are favoring bd with shelf space and since the price will be equal after you add in the software cost, just as many will go with bd as have been.

i am going to be right there with the other new bd neutral owners soon because i will not pay 2x the price for software. the only way i will stick with hd dvd is if they discount the software to. if i get a bd player i will spend enough money on software in jan. to offset 10 new hd dvd owners.

the bd bogo sales will offset anything that hd dvd player prices do.

the perception that bd is the next major format will remain because the retailers will stock more software for bd on the shelves and that alone will cripple the player sales for hd dvd because it will be seen as a waste of money to buy a player and software for a format that will not last.

imo there is going to be no shift in software sales from 60/40 unless something else changes. something really big needs to happen and imo playre prices isn't it.

that is my crystal ball prediction.

With the hindsight of the Double Whammy that Transformers dealt to HD-DVD :-

1) Highlighting HD-DVD's capacity shortcomings with Lossy Audio
2) Failure to win even 1 week over BD despite Transformers being a blockbuster against nothing fro BD in the same week.

... I think it is safe to say that HD-DVD's bolt is shot and Blu-ray has now all but won the war.

The only thing that can save HD-DVD now is if Microsoft stump up another astronomical amount of cash to buy off Warner Bros.

With the hindsight of the Double Whammy that Transformers dealt to HD-DVD :-

1) Highlighting HD-DVD's capacity shortcomings with Lossy Audio
2) Failure to win even 1 week over BD despite Transformers being a blockbuster against nothing fro BD in the same week.

... I think it is safe to say that HD-DVD's bolt is shot and Blu-ray has now all but won the war.

The only thing that can save HD-DVD now is if Microsoft stump up another astronomical amount of cash to buy off Warner Bros.

bd is not even close to winning. they have absolutely no chance to win imo. the best they can do is perpetuate a stalemate by giving away software.

if the hd dvd side wants to kill off bd. warner needs to stop pissing around and drop bd. they have always favored hd dvd and if they want one format they should do it now.

if the other hd dvd studios want to kill bd then they need to match the bd bogo sales with hd dvd bogo sales in combination with the low player prices.

the final nail in the coffin for bd would be combo/twin only (no dvd) day/date releases in '08.

imo if the hd dvd side does all off the above in combination bd will probably remain a niche format for the ps3 for all time.

does the hd dvd pg want to put an end to this or not?

I think that HD-DVD is in serious danger of making the consumer think that their players are being liquidated at such low prices.

I'm serious.

That and having a pretty weak movie line-up against Blu-ray will keep people from buying them.

bd is not even close to winning. they have absolutely no chance to win imo. the best they can do is perpetuate a stalemate by giving away software.

if the hd dvd side wants to kill off bd. warner needs to stop pissing around and drop bd. they have always favored hd dvd and if they want one format they should do it now.

if the other hd dvd studios want to kill bd then they need to match the bd bogo sales with hd dvd bogo sales in combination with the low player prices.

the final nail in the coffin for bd would be combo/twin only (no dvd) day/date releases in '08.

imo if the hd dvd side does all off the above in combination bd will probably remain a niche format for the ps3 for all time.

does the hd dvd pg want to put an end to this or not?

do you really believe all of this stuff you just posted?

BD is not even close to winning??? what are you smoking??? they are winning in hardware and software, which they have done all year long...

the lack of reality in here sometimes is truly amazing...

HOW MANY weeks do you think that Bluray will win in the Nielsen First Alert data during January 2008?

Difficult to predict, considering that we still don't have the full release slate for January...

But going on what we already know, I'm ready to hazard a guess that Blu-ray will win all four weeks on Nielsen First Alert.

What is your prediction, rdjam? You didn't make this a public poll...

why are you even doing a poll about January releases? Is it because HD DVD is going to get killed over the next 2 months in disk sales, so you are trying to find something to deaden the anguish this is going to cause???

how many titles have even been announced?

price drops (sub 200),bogo deal for hddvd,ao hddvd packin deal with the 360,stand alone ao price dropped to 99 and warner going to hddvd = blu-ray death march,imo

thats putting a lot of weight on things that haven't happened yet, how typical of this SCIENCE forums nowadays to make outlandish predictions based on hypotheticals that have not happened.

why are you even doing a poll about January releases? Is it because HD DVD is going to get killed over the next 2 months in disk sales, so you are trying to find something to deaden the anguish this is going to cause???

how many titles have even been announced?

thats exactly why...it was either him or someone else that made a similar poll right after Paramount switched about Q4...now that that dream was squashed they are moving on....another day another savior theory.....this one revolves around HD DVD sales doubling in 2 months what they accomplished in 18, it involves future BOGOS that havent been nnounced, it involves price cuts....etc.

I wish people would just settle down and stop putting their carts before their horses because January is a LONG ways away.

Does anybody else see the irony in these threads where half the posters are making fun of Sony for declaring that Blu-ray has already won, and then the other half are declaring that HD-DVD has already won?Nope - I think the more accurate analysis would be "Bluray has won, YAY!" vs. "HD DVD may win because xyz, abc and x,y,z".
...my take is that Blu-ray has had a lot of momentum the past couple weeks but these cheap HD-DVD players are going a long way to reversing that.The last 8 weeks have been a 60:40 average for BD:HD, as compared to 75:25 earlier in the year... Which "momentum" are you referring to??

BUt yes, the affordable HD DVD players will make a huge impact.

NOTE - for anyone who thinks this doesn't belong here, I'd remind everyone that Gruberts identical thread for Q4 07 has been up here in the same place for weeks, so it surely would seem both relevant and properly placed.

OK - so we see that HD DVD can pretty much match Bluray numbers now - and the last 8 weeks of Nielsen have averaged 60:40 BD:HD

And, in the last two days we have learned of $199 HD DVD players at Walmart and Circuit City, with talk that Best Buy will probably match. And we've also heard of a half-day sale at Sears for an A3 at only $169!

So we can see that HD DVD is making it's mass-market push, now. Hundreds of thousands of people will probably buy HD DVD by January 1st, and they'll be buying SCADS of movies in January of next year.

If HD DVD reaches 1,000,000 standalone players the software sales will probably equal the equivalent of 7,000,000 PS3 owners.

SOOooo.... it'll be a COMPLETELY different ballgame in January 2008, for the Nielsen numbers (and will probably even start changing to HD DVD before the end of 2007 even).

HOW MANY weeks do you think that Bluray will win in the Nielsen First Alert data during January 2008?

Ummm, they basically had TWO weeks where they came close to upending BD.

1) When Knocked UP was released during a week with no other releases, no sales etc.

2) When they paid Paramount to keep Transformers out of BD owner's hands.

Even with the big box-office blockbuster of the summer, HD DVD hasn't been able to win a single week this year.

I would wait on the celebrations. For major exclusives HD basically has Bourne3/Shrek 3, while BDA has Spiderman3/Rata/Cars/Diehard/Simpsons Movie/Pirates3/RushHour(timed). Spiderman 3 next week will probably beat 300 as the top selling HDM title.

Nope - I think the more accurate analysis would be "Bluray has won, YAY!" vs. "HD DVD may win because xyz, abc and x,y,z".
The last 8 weeks have been a 60:40 average for BD:HD, as compared to 75:25 earlier in the year... Which "momentum" are you referring to??

BUt yes, the affordable HD DVD players will make a huge impact.

.................pretty convenient how the Transfomers release is part of those 8 weeks. That one week skewed all the numbers. Remeber the week BEFORE transfomers came out (71-29)??

Just think what the numbers would be like if Toshiba hadn't burned $150 million to payoff Paramount. That single decision basically extended the war unnecessarily for 6 months.

1 week out of 3...

I'm figuring a total of 1,000,000 million HD DVD standalone players by January, which will easily outperform the PS3 BD user base. Difficult to predict, considering that we still don't have the full release slate for January...

But going on what we already know, I'm ready to hazard a guess that Blu-ray will win all four weeks on Nielsen First Alert.

What is your prediction, rdjam? You didn't make this a public poll...

thats putting a lot of weight on things that haven't happened yet, how typical of this SCIENCE forums nowadays to make outlandish predictions based on hypotheticals that have not happened.Wow - some folks take these discussions personally.

In answer to your concern, there are very logical and "scientific" reasons why HD DVD will overtake BD software sales. First off, having players at under $200 and available nearly EVERYWHERE, means a huge HD DVD player installed base by January, which logically means more disc sales.

1 week out of 3...

I'm figuring a total of 1,000,000 million HD DVD standalone players by January, which will easily outperform the PS3 BD user base.

DisplaySearch/NPD has predicted one million for Blu-ray and HD DVD combined by year end.

.................pretty convenient how the Transfomers release is part of those 8 weeks. That one week skewed all the numbers. Remeber the week BEFORE transfomers came out (71-29)??Well, the BD BOGOF sale was ALSO part of that 8 weeks, so I don't see how you could smell some HD DVD conspiracy...

Just think what the numbers would be like if Toshiba hadn't burned $150 million to payoff Paramount. That single decision basically extended the war unnecessarily for 6 months.Sour grapes? Why not complain about Warner being made neutral before the start of the war, when they were originally HD DVD only?

Paramount (and Dreamworks) made solid business decisions to go HD DVD only because of many of the same reasons I've been discussing here. Whatever additional consideration was given for them taking this decision a little early is not really relevant, but they have already stated clearly that it wasn't $150 million.

DisplaySearch/NPD has predicted one million for Blu-ray and HD DVD combined by year end.So we'll soon see if their guess is correct... right?

I sure there was other reasons. They just take this 150M as a gift... :-)

Nope - I think the more accurate analysis would be "Bluray has won, YAY!" vs. "HD DVD may win because xyz, abc and x,y,z".
The last 8 weeks have been a 60:40 average for BD:HD, as compared to 75:25 earlier in the year... Which "momentum" are you referring to??

BUt yes, the affordable HD DVD players will make a huge impact.

The "momentum" I'm referring to is that BD was able to outsell HD-DVD despite the release of Transformers. Most people on both sides expected HD-DVD to win last week's numbers by a landslide. The fact that despite selling 100,000+ of Transformers they still lost that week, is a blow to HD-DVD.

51:49 is an obvious win for Blu-ray when they were competing against the most important exclusive title HD-DVD will have for the forseeable future. Similarly, 51:49 would be a bad week for Blu-ray for the week of Spiderman 3, for example. These numbers don't mean much apart from context. Taking 60% of the market over 8 weeks that were by and large expected to belong to HD-DVD signals strength, not weakness.

$300 was the last "magic price point" and BD standalones actually caught up and grabbed the sales lead for at least a month this summer right when HD DVD was hitting that point. I think the $250 players will have the same effect: none.

Lowering the price on a product consumers don't care about does not significantly drive sales. Niether does inflating the sales numbers of Transformers. 4/4 for Blu-ray in January, just like every month of 2007...

$300 was the last "magic oprice point" and BD standalones actually caught up and grabbed the sales lead for at least a month this summer right when HD DVD was hitting that point. I think the $250 players will have the same effect: none.

Lowering the price on a product consumers don't care about does not significantly drive sales. Niether does inflating the sales numbers of Transformers. 4/4 for Blu-ray in January, just like every month of 2007...

Yeh, I remember the dude from **************** making a post about the $299 price point and how the Hidef format war would change now that the players hit this price point.

Of course its about 3-4 months later and players have been readily available for $229. Of course the format war hasn`t changed a bit....it is still a puny niche format.

Supposedly this drop to $199 will move about 700,000 HD DVD players in 2 months (even though they only managed to sell about 400,000 in the preceding 18-20 months). I see the HD DVD fanbois are in full celebratory mode today for this reason.

I guess we will all see how it turns out in 2 months time. Maybe we`ll be talking about the $99 price point by then :o

Where is the option for five weeks?:confused:

:D

Well I haven't voted yet - waiting to do more research.

But by looking at what has already been announced for January I believe HD DVD needs to add some titles:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

Where is the option for five weeks?:confused:

:D

:D

Just to be clear, we are predicting the results for the weeks ending on Jan 6, Jan 13, Jan 20 and Jan 27, 2008. Right?

Conent is King. There are no Major HD DVDs announced for January.

Conent is King. There are no Major HD DVDs announced for January.

Well I have to admit that the HD DVD's so far for Jan. do look a bit sparse.

So using my links from above - what are the BB's that BD will be releasing in Jan. that have ben announced so far?

Well I have to admit that the HD DVD's so far for Jan. do look a bit sparse.

So using my links from above - what are the BB's that BD will be releasing in Jan. that have ben announced so far?

I think I saw Man on Fire listed somewhere...

That should sell a clean million ;)

I think I saw Man on Fire listed somewhere...

That should sell a clean million ;)

GREAT movie! Unfortunately, isn't that a catalog title?

I mean looking over the Jan. pickings for HD DVD all I see is The Zodiac. Hope they improve the offerrings. Once the studios and CEM's build up momentum for HDM, the last thing I want to see is them to think they have done enough and relax their efforts. :(

GREAT movie! Unfortunately, isn't that a catalog title?

I mean looking over the Jan. pickings for HD DVD all I see is The Zodiac. Hope they improve the offerrings. Once the studios and CEM's build up momentum for HDM, the last thing I want to see is them to think they have done enough and relax their efforts. :(

Loved the movie as well, but as you caught on to my subtleness, yes only a catalog.

I haven't seen any huge titles. January could be as boring as the summer months. (Neilson wise of course.... any movie released at all is enough for us all to get excited over)

Loved the movie as well, but as you caught on to my subtleness, yes only a catalog.

I haven't seen any huge titles. January could be as boring as the summer months. (Neilson wise of course.... any movie released at all is enough for us all to get excited over)

Well I don't know about you but I am buying a number of HD DVD's in December. That with all my favorite shows in HD should keep me busy if the studios are going to be happy with a drought of movie titles.

Well I don't know about you but I am buying a number of HD DVD's in December. That with all my favorite shows in HD should keep me busy if the studios are going to be happy with a drought of movie titles.

I'll have to look at the list for HD DVD's. I did peruse the BD list a few days ago and December 4th is scaring the bejesus outa me as it is... :D

I'll have to look at the list for HD DVD's. I did peruse the BD list a few days ago and December 4th is scaring the bejesus outa me as it is... :D


Wait a second . . . need to put my Format War hat on (and staying with the new version of Lee;))

Here is HD DVD's selections for January so far:

January 08, 2008

Galaxina (BCI)
IMAX: Coral Reef Adventure (Image)
IMAX: Fighter Pilot - Operation Red Flag (Image)
IMAX: Mystery of the Nile (Image)
IMAX: The Alps (Image)
Mobsters (Universal)
The Pianist (Universal)
The Road to Bali / The Road to Rio (Double Feature) (BCI)
Twister (Warner)
White Noise (Universal)
White Noise: The Light (Universal)
Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

January 29, 2008
King of California

YIKES!

Who let the dogs out?:eek:

They are going to need a BOGT sale to move those movies! (Buy One Get Two):(

January 01, 2008
Shoot 'Em Up (New Line)
War (Lionsgate)

January 02, 2008
Resident Evil (Sony)
Resident Evil Trilogy (Sony)
Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony)

January 08, 2008
3:10 to Yuma (2007) (Lionsgate)
Con Air (Buena Vista)
Man on Fire (Fox)
Night of the Werewolf / Vengeance of the Zombies (Deimos)
The Rock (Buena Vista)
Twister (Warner)
Galaxina (BCI)
IMAX: Coral Reef Adventure (Image)
IMAX: Fighter Pilot - Operation Red Flag (Image)
IMAX: Mystery of the Nile (Image)
IMAX: The Alps (Image)
Mobsters (Universal)
The Pianist (Universal)
The Road to Bali / The Road to Rio (Double Feature) (BCI)
Twister (Warner)
White Noise (Universal)
White Noise: The Light (Universal)
Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

January 15, 2008
Breaker Morant (Image)
Mr. Woodcock (New Line)
Suburban Girl (Image)

January 22, 2008
The Game Plan (Walt Disney) JUST LISTED!

January 29, 2008
King of California (First Look)
King of California (First Look)

February 05, 2008
Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World (Fox)

...
YIKES!

Who let the dogs out?:eek:

They are going to need a BOGT sale to move those movies! (Buy One Get Two):(

Well... I'll be getting Twister :D


Also just saw HP was due on 12/11... no idea how I missed that. :D That's about 5 HD DVD's for me that month alone.

We will have to wait to see how release schedules pan out. Right now there's very little in day and date releases on HD-DVD, but a few on Blu-Ray. 3:10 to Yuma, War, Shoot Em Up, Game Plan.

But with titles like The Kingdom having no official release date but looking to be released around that time period, I'm sure more will pop up on the HD-DVD side (and the Blu-Ray side for that matter).

looks like another really really bad month for HD DVD (again...)...

January 01, 2008
Shoot 'Em Up (New Line)
War (Lionsgate)

January 02, 2008
Resident Evil (Sony)
Resident Evil Trilogy (Sony)
Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony)

January 08, 2008
3:10 to Yuma (2007) (Lionsgate)
Con Air (Buena Vista)
Man on Fire (Fox)
Night of the Werewolf / Vengeance of the Zombies (Deimos)
The Rock (Buena Vista)
Twister (Warner)
Galaxina (BCI)
IMAX: Coral Reef Adventure (Image)
IMAX: Fighter Pilot - Operation Red Flag (Image)
IMAX: Mystery of the Nile (Image)
IMAX: The Alps (Image)
Mobsters (Universal)
The Pianist (Universal)
The Road to Bali / The Road to Rio (Double Feature) (BCI)
Twister (Warner)
White Noise (Universal)
White Noise: The Light (Universal)
Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

January 15, 2008
Breaker Morant (Image)
Mr. Woodcock (New Line)
Suburban Girl (Image)

January 22, 2008
The Game Plan (Walt Disney) JUST LISTED!

January 29, 2008
King of California (First Look)
King of California (First Look)

February 05, 2008
Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World (Fox)

Wait a second . . . need to put my Format War hat on (and staying with the new version of Lee;))

Here is HD DVD's selections for January so far:

January 08, 2008

Galaxina (BCI)
IMAX: Coral Reef Adventure (Image)
IMAX: Fighter Pilot - Operation Red Flag (Image)
IMAX: Mystery of the Nile (Image)
IMAX: The Alps (Image)
Mobsters (Universal)
The Pianist (Universal)
The Road to Bali / The Road to Rio (Double Feature) (BCI)
Twister (Warner)
White Noise (Universal)
White Noise: The Light (Universal)
Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

January 29, 2008
King of California

YIKES!

Who let the dogs out?:eek:

They are going to need a BOGT sale to move those movies! (Buy One Get Two):(

HD-DVD did this last year too. I mean, I think that big Blu-ray gap of winning in first quarter '07 was due less to them loosing momentum at the end of 2007, and more to do with the lousy release schedule at the beginning of the year for HD-DVD.

Others remember that 'drought' don't they?

OK - so we see that HD DVD can pretty much match Bluray numbers now

I can't as I'm not wearing blublockers that filter out reality.

HD-DVD did this last year too. I mean, I think that big Blu-ray gap of winning in first quarter '07 was due less to them loosing momentum at the end of 2007, and more to do with the lousy release schedule at the beginning of the year for HD-DVD.

Others remember that 'drought' don't they?

Drought? More like NONE - I think it was 2 movies in 90 days. :(

looks like another really really bad month for HD DVD (again...)...

It sure does. Hey . . . would American Gangster fit into the month of January? Movie opens 11/2.

It sure does. Hey . . . would American Gangster fit into the month of January? Movie opens 11/2.

Awful tight....

I'd geuess late Feb/March

We will have to wait to see how release schedules pan out. Right now there's very little in day and date releases on HD-DVD, but a few on Blu-Ray. 3:10 to Yuma, War, Shoot Em Up, Game Plan.


Don't forget about Resident Evil 3. That my do well with PS3 owners.

I voted for the last option. I have been told that numerous times so it must be true.:p

based on the release schedule for JAN (or lack thereof), this thread should be locked...seriously...

To answer the question, I think it's hard to determine exactly what the numbers will be like since both the HD-DVD and blu-ray camps are making a holiday push. Blu-ray seems to be focusing on software and HD-DVD seems to be focusing on hardware.

Prima facie this makes sense, since the quickest way for HD-DVD to increase its sales base is to get its hardware into the hands of consumers. Blu-ray, on the other hand, already has a great deal of latent demand in people who own PS3s but aren't into Blu-ray. So their approach is to spur software sales to increase their attach rates on the PS3s that are already out there.

I think cases could be made either way for whose approach is going to be more successful, but my take is that Blu-ray has had a lot of momentum the past couple weeks but these cheap HD-DVD players are going a long way to reversing that.

Exactly. Bluray will get slaughtered in stand alone sales this Chrismas. And with that and a likely Warner defection, the numbers are bound to change.

why are you even doing a poll about January releases? Is it because HD DVD is going to get killed over the next 2 months in disk sales, so you are trying to find something to deaden the anguish this is going to cause???

how many titles have even been announced?

Its because Toshiba will be shifting a massive number of A2s this Christmas and the BDA have no answer for that where hardware is concerned.

DisplaySearch/NPD has predicted one million for Blu-ray and HD DVD combined by year end.

Was this before or after the availability of sub $200 A2s?

I sure there was other reasons. They just take this 150M as a gift... :-)

Still bitter about Paramount? Wait until Warner drops Blu!

Conent is King. There are no Major HD DVDs announced for January.

I'll remember that when Warner dumps Blu.

...

OK - so we see that HD DVD can pretty much match Bluray numbers now ...


Too funny ... ROFL

With the hindsight of the Double Whammy that Transformers dealt to HD-DVD :-

1) Highlighting HD-DVD's capacity shortcomings with Lossy Audio
2) Failure to win even 1 week over BD despite Transformers being a blockbuster against nothing fro BD in the same week.

... I think it is safe to say that HD-DVD's bolt is shot and Blu-ray has now all but won the war.

The only thing that can save HD-DVD now is if Microsoft stump up another astronomical amount of cash to buy off Warner Bros.

It is amazing to see that every single word you typed is amazingly wrong.

Does anybody else see the irony in these threads where half the posters are making fun of Sony for declaring that Blu-ray has already won, and then the other half are declaring that HD-DVD has already won?

What did you expect from a thread like this?

It won't accomplish anything but rehash all the usual bashing.

Its because Toshiba will be shifting a massive number of A2s this Christmas and the BDA have no answer for that where hardware is concerned.

massive, eh?? why are they even making A3's then??? I thought the A2's were being discontinued (which is what usually happens when a newer model comes out to replace the previous one)....

Was this before or after the availability of sub $200 A2s?

just exactly how many discontinued A2's do you think they will sell again???

then again...Toshiba thought they were going to sell 1M players by the end of the year...I wonder if they actually made that many???

just exactly how many discontinued A2's do you think they will sell again???

Apparently there are something like 50k available in that promotion/clearance sale.

With BD exclusive titles for January such as:

Shoot 'Em Up (New Line)
War (Lionsgate)
Resident Evil (Sony)
Resident Evil Trilogy (Sony)
Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony)
3:10 to Yuma (2007) (Lionsgate)
Con Air (Buena Vista)
Man on Fire (Fox)
The Rock (Buena Vista)
Mr. Woodcock (New Line)
The Game Plan (Walt Disney)

I think Blu-ray will have a pretty good time of it.

So far the largest correlation we have seen in Videoscan numbers is the titles released.

HD DVD has announced so far:

Mobsters (Universal)
The Pianist (Universal)
White Noise (Universal)
White Noise: The Light (Universal)
Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

While there are no super great titles (just my opinion) amongst these, I give BD the edge for release slate.

$300 was the last "magic price point" and BD standalones actually caught up and grabbed the sales lead for at least a month this summer right when HD DVD was hitting that point. I think the $250 players will have the same effect: none.

Lowering the price on a product consumers don't care about does not significantly drive sales. Niether does inflating the sales numbers of Transformers. 4/4 for Blu-ray in January, just like every month of 2007...

In case you were intentionally not looking, $198 A2's are now the new price standard, not $250. And that's today. Will they still be priced that high in December? $169 has been bandied about for Black Friday.

I agree that at $250 a lot of consumers either don't care or think $250 is too expensive. At $198 (and moreso at $169), the potential market has just increased by a sizeable amount.

Yes - the forecasts about 1 million units were made before this new low pricing was announced. There's a big difference between $300 and $160.

Also, to those inferring that the A2 is "obsolete", I would remind you that the A2 is not obsolete in any way. It is every bit as compatible and capable as the A3 is, since all HD DVD players meet the same spec (unlike all Bluray players currently on the market).

The only difference between the A2 and the A3 is that the A3 is designed to be more cheaply manufactured.

Yes - the forecasts about 1 million units were made before this new low pricing was announced. There's a big difference between $300 and $160.

Also, to those inferring that the A2 is "obsolete", I would remind you that the A2 is not obsolete in any way. It is every bit as compatible and capable as the A3 is, since all HD DVD players meet the same spec (unlike all Bluray players currently on the market).

The only difference between the A2 and the A3 is that the A3 is designed to be more cheaply manufactured.

And as far as the consumer is concerned - the A3 includes the Bourne Identity and 300. Both HD DVD only.

[

So we can see that HD DVD is making it's mass-market push, now. Hundreds of thousands of people will probably buy HD DVD by January 1st, and they'll be buying SCADS of movies in January of next year.



thousands maybe....but hundreds of thousands...that won't happen

And as far as the consumer is concerned - the A3 includes the Bourne Identity and 300. Both HD DVD only.

??

4 out of 4 weeks. HD DVD has no substantial releases.

so how is hd dvd going to sell hundreds of thousands of players when they only have 50,000 of the 199 players?

All. Harry Potter will be the last WB BD released and the residual effects of Warners new red car won't be seen in the sales numbers for months.


BTW
Watch out boys, mark has a brand new box of master locks and he is seeing how many he can use in one night.

My thread on Warner leaving Sony due to Sony's decision to stop subsidizing studios for BD replication got closed within minutes.<sigh> And so did my paramount thread that I posted about 2 weeks before P-Day.

Yes I have a friend who works for Sony. I asked him to be an insider here, but he thinks he sees the polls and knows why red is the first color in the AVS logo.
(The logo thing is just sarcasm people, but there is WAY more HD DVD love here than BD, not by the mods, just the posters) I have no preference as long as one format survives.

How many BR supporters consider the PS2 discontinued? They sell twice as many of those as the PS3 and it's been a year since the PS3 release. Just because a newer model is out doesn't mean that the older model is discontinued, obviously. Well at least to reasonable people that is.

Has anybody else noticed how many new posters we have since the WalMart price announcent? Interesting isn't it. Reminds of when Paramount dumped BR.

Has anybody else noticed how many new posters we have since the WalMart price announcent? Interesting isn't it. Reminds of when Paramount dropped BR.

Yeah, but bandwagon opinion isn't always a good thing. We could pull ten posters from each 'side' and get basically the same stuff just less volume of threads. (I.E. needless repeats.)


BTW
Watch out boys, mark has a brand new box of master locks and he is seeing how many he can use in one night.


I've seen better threads than this one get locked (no offense to the OP, it's a perfectly sane question. ^_^), so my guess is this thread's time is numbered as well. :-)

Once the new owners of A2s have watched their free movies, the game is on! I say BluRay takes the first couple of weeks and HDDVD takes it from there. Similar to the PS3 effect last year.

...hmmm..so the war is on in april/may then I take it... sent in for my free hddvd movies August 1, still "Processing"

??

maybe he is saying 'non combo'. I don't think Lee mistakenly thinks 300 is HDDVD exclusive..

just exactly how many discontinued A2's do you think they will sell again???

then again...Toshiba thought they were going to sell 1M players by the end of the year...I wonder if they actually made that many???

Nobody knows how many A2s Toshiba has allocated for Walmarts. There could have been a special deal between the two companies.

massive, eh?? why are they even making A3's then??? I thought the A2's were being discontinued (which is what usually happens when a newer model comes out to replace the previous one)....

There isn't much difference between the A2 and A3. As a matter of fact, even the discontinued A2 is light years ahead of any current BluRay standalone as far as IME and Web Features.

The only difference between the A2 and the A3 is that the A3 is designed to be more cheaply manufactured.

Isn't it odd then that the one that costs more to make (the A2) is being sold for less money than the one that is cheaper to make (the A3)? Apparently for an 'unlimited' number of units?

Is common sense making any headway yet? Or is Toshiba just really bad at math?

As for the number I read somewhere there are 50k units in the Walmart deal... dunno if it is true or not.

Isn't it odd then that the one that costs more to make (the A2) is being sold for less money than the one that is cheaper to make (the A3)? Apparently for an 'unlimited' number of units?

Is common sense making any headway yet? Or is Toshiba just really bad at math?

As for the number I read somewhere there are 50k units in the Walmart deal... dunno if it is true or not.

Provide a link then. Otherwise it's just hot air!

Isn't it odd then that the one that costs more to make (the A2) is being sold for less money than the one that is cheaper to make (the A3)? Apparently for an 'unlimited' number of units?With the new model (A3) coming out, the A2's are simply being sold off at the price that the A3 will be sold at later. Functionally they are identical. The A3 just uses system on silicon design to do the exact same things as the A2. This is an incredible bargain, and you'll see the A3 at the same price when the A2 is sold out.

so how is hd dvd going to sell hundreds of thousands of players when they only have 50,000 of the 199 players?That's a number only certain folks have been promoting :rolleyes:

Walmart alone has 150,000 of these available to them, 60 per store, 2,500 stores.

No confirmed info on the quantities available to Circuit City, but said to be 40 per store.

With the new model (A3) coming out, the A2's are simply being sold off at the price that the A3 will be sold at later. Functionally they are identical. The A3 just uses system on silicon design to do the exact same things as the A2. This is an incredible bargain, and you'll see the A3 at the same price when the A2 is sold out.

That's a number only certain folks have been promoting :rolleyes:

Walmart alone has 150,000 of these available to them, 60 per store, 2,500 stores.

No confirmed info on the quantities available to Circuit City, but said to be 40 per store.

I thought there were more than 2500 stores, Maybe they orderded 2 millon?

This is an easy no brainer 4/4 for Blu Ray. Just look at the pathetic offerings from HD DVD, do they even have any Day and Date releases of any significance in January?? I love seeing the 36 people who have the blinders on by voting 0/4 for Blu Ray, when it's Blu Ray that has all the big name titles available for January, and still hasn't lost a week of sales the entire year.

And as far as the consumer is concerned - the A3 includes the Bourne Identity and 300. Both HD DVD only.

300 HD only? Thats funny...I would have sworn I own 300 on blu-ray...hmmm...I must be mistaken. :rolleyes:

300 HD only? Thats funny...I would have sworn I own 300 on blu-ray...hmmm...I must be mistaken. :rolleyes:

I call BS. This is like when people said they had Blades of Glory on BD, isn't it? Show a picture if you want to be taken seriously!

;)

I just voted Blu-ray has won the war, because this thread, and this poll are lame.

300 HD only? Thats funny...I would have sworn I own 300 on blu-ray...hmmm...I must be mistaken. :rolleyes:

If you looked at the announcement you would see that previous to the A3 300 was only available as a Combo for HD DVD - had both HD DVD and DVD,

The copy supplied in the A3 is not a Combo - hence HD DVD only.

NOW do you understand?

I went with the Blu Ray has already won the war option. I also agree with the 4 out of 4 option.


-Brian

I went with the Blu Ray has already won the war option. I also agree with the 4 out of 4 option.


-Brian
And we needed to know this because...? If I'm not mistaken, this is a public poll...further delineation as to your reasoning might have made the post necessary. Otherwise what's the point?

This is an incredible bargain, and you'll see the A3 at the same price when the A2 is sold out.


Can you please show us a reference for this statement? I have not seen anything that would lead me to believe that the A3 will sell for anything other than $300.

Also, what happened to the unlimited number of A2's that you were promoting as fact a couple of days ago?

Can you please show us a reference for this statement? I have not seen anything that would lead me to believe that the A3 will sell for anything other than $300.


Isn't there a leaked sears ad stating that the A3 will be on sale for $169 on blackfriday?

So do some of you think that BD players and PS3s will just completely stop selling? Yes I agree HD players will sell but so will BD players AND PS3s. There is no reason to think HD software sales are just going to catch up and surpass BD at all.

So do some of you think that BD players and PS3s will just completely stop selling? Yes I agree HD players will sell but so will BD players AND PS3s. There is no reason to think HD software sales are just going to catch up and surpass BD at all.

They will surpass BD players because $199 is too good a deal to pass up. The PS3 will perform poorly this Xmas and the rest of the BD Players are either too expensive, incomplete with respect to profiles or both.

They will surpass BD players because $199 is too good a deal to pass up. The PS3 will perform poorly this Xmas and the rest of the BD Players are either too expensive, incomplete with respect to profiles or both.

Same arguments I've been hearing since last year, HD DVD being too good of a deal to pass up.. yaddda yadda. Somehow HD DVD still gets blown away in software sales on a regular basis. Though I do believe this Friday should be a blip on the radar for them for the first time this year due to the HD DVD add-on deal (quite a large $ amount of software for free with purchase) at Best Buy (#1 seller of HDM).

Curious when do you you think HD DVD will pass up blu-ray at Nielsen since inception and not just out perform for one week?

Same arguments I've been hearing since last year, HD DVD being too good of a deal to pass up.. yaddda yadda. Somehow HD DVD still gets blown away in software sales on a regular basis. Though I do believe this Friday should be a blip on the radar for them for the first time this year due to the HD DVD add-on deal (quite a large $ amount of software for free with purchase) at Best Buy (#1 seller of HDM).

Curious when do you you think HD DVD will pass up blu-ray at Nielsen since inception and not just out perform for one week?

$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption. That has always been the case. I expect HDDVD to consistently beat BluRay in software sales by late January. Depending on the success of the A2, it could take 4 to 6 months to pass BluRay since inception. BTW Toshiba already increased their Stand Alone lead to 60% so whatever they're doing it's working. As for the PS3, its dead. There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption. That has always been the case. I expect HDDVD to consistently beat BluRay in software sales by late January. Depending on the success of the A2, it could take 4 to 6 months to pass BluRay since inception. BTW Toshiba already increased their Stand Alone lead to 60% so whatever they're doing it's working. As for the PS3, its dead. There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

With facts like PS3 being dead and no excitement yet still selling more than any HD DVD player. Well it sounds like you've got it all figured out, lol :D

With facts like PS3 being dead and no excitement yet still selling more than any HD DVD player.

If the new standard for PS3 success is outselling a HD DVD player when the HDM market is a couple of percent of DVD sales, then I guess it's an unqualified success :p

Can you please show us a reference for this statement? I have not seen anything that would lead me to believe that the A3 will sell for anything other than $300.

Companies like our friends at VE are already selling the A3 at $249. I'm no math wiz, but I think that's less than $300 and we're a ways away from running out of A2's.

If the new standard for PS3 success is outselling a HD DVD player when the HDM market is a couple of percent of DVD sales, then I guess it's an unqualified success :p

Good point. I didn't realize the PS3 was competing with the HD A2. Talk about lowering your expectations! :D

$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption. That has always been the case. I expect HDDVD to consistently beat BluRay in software sales by late January. Depending on the success of the A2, it could take 4 to 6 months to pass BluRay since inception. BTW Toshiba already increased their Stand Alone lead to 60% so whatever they're doing it's working. As for the PS3, its dead. There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

"$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption."

Sorry, but critical price point for mass adoption is about $100 less


There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

Among 360 fanboys anyway.:rolleyes:

"$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption."

Sorry, but critical price point for mass adoption is about $100 less


There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

Among 360 fanboys anyway.:rolleyes:
One of the PS3 console saviors just got delayed to Q2 2008, so that's further reason to avoid the overpriced hunk of junk until April at best (with continued delays to follow at worst): http://www.konami.jp/topics/2007/1031_1/index-e.html

One of the PS3 console saviors just got delayed to Q2 2008, so that's further reason to avoid the overpriced hunk of junk until April at best (with continued delays to follow at worst): http://www.konami.jp/topics/2007/1031_1/index-e.html

Well, using Lee's argument that just means they'll use the money to buy that title instead on movies:p

A cheap HD DVD player sale does not necessarily translate into a high HD DVD attach rate. Read the "If you by SD, are you part of the problem for HDM" thread.

Software cost is a barrier. More so when the person will only buy a cheap player.

My stick is bigger than yours...neener, neener.

Isn't there a leaked sears ad stating that the A3 will be on sale for $169 on blackfriday?

do you not know how black friday works???

unless you get inline at 2 in the morning, you won't have a snowball's chance in hell at getting an A3 at this price...

then again, this is sears, so you might get lucky by getting there at 4 in the morning....

last year at Frys (in Irving, TX), the first person got in line at 8 pm Thu night...i think that since Black Friday is getting more exposure, more people will be camping out (especially for the HDTV LCD's that will really bottom out that day) in higher numbers and getting there earlier...

Good point. I didn't realize the PS3 was competing with the HD A2. Talk about lowering your expectations! :D

Yeah the PS3 loads what, 3 times as fast and doesn't stutter or skip on any discs unlike that Toshiba heap of trash. Not a fair comparison at all. :D

Yeah the PS3 loads what, 3 times as fast and doesn't stutter or skip on any discs unlike that Toshiba heap of trash. Not a fair comparison at all. :D

To bad it doesn't handle Madden that smoothly.:p Does the Play in Playstation now just stand for ''press Play to watch your movie?:p

"$199 has traditionally been the critical price point for mass adoption."

Sorry, but critical price point for mass adoption is about $100 less


There is no excitement around this console among gamers.

Among 360 fanboys anyway.:rolleyes:

You can review the history of home electronics: VCRs, CD Players, Videogame Consoles, TiVO, DVD players and all experienced a surge in sales when the price reached $199. That's the critical mass price point.

how about an option for "who cares"Agreed. Sales figures discussions belong in the existing sales figures threads. This one's gone off-topic, anyway. Continue this one in the BD sales figures thread please.