I am a simple consumer and while somewhat of an early adopter by mainstream standards, I'm nowhere near an early adopter by avsforum standards. When presented with the choice of HD format discs, I had to choose just one. Doing both simply wasn't in the cards. Here's why I chose HD-DVD:

1. Price - I was able to buy into it very cheaply via the XBox 360 addon. I, along with a lot of mainstream consumers, am much more inclined to try out new technology when it's cheap enough. Now with sub-$200 players coming out in retail giants like wal mart, it's clear that HD-DVD has the price advantage.

2. Technology doesn't matter - Here on AVS, we discuss things like bitrates and disc sizes and Dolby TrueHD decoding. These are not mainstream consumer topics. There just isn't that many people out there who have elaborate surround sound systems. People are most definitely adopting HDTV, but at best, people buy into the Bose (yes I used that four letter word!) or other brands' HT in a box setups. Your typical consumer isn't going to muddle over technical specs, they just want HD content. This is why the technology side of the discussion is utterly pointless. The only technology that makes any difference is the fact that HD-DVDs can be created as SD-DVD combo discs. This is huge for consumers who are unsure of making the jump.

3. Sony's consumer format track record - Everybody uses the beta vs VHS example, but nobody looks at the many more attempts Sony has made at creating a new consumer format standard. Here's a list of the major consumer formats Sony has attempted:
-Betamax -> lost out to VHS
-3.5" Floppy -> major success
-MiniDisc -> short fad at best
-ATRAC -> lost out to MP3/WMA/AAC
-SDDS -> how many of you have SDDS decoding in your home theater?
-SACD -> still competing with DVD-Audio
-UMD (PSP Movie Discs) -> abandoned last year
-Memory Stick -> Only Sony devices use this

and IMHO the biggest one in relation to BD vs HDDVD:
-MultiMedia Compact Disc (MMCD) -> lost out to Toshiba's Super Density disc, now called... drumroll...
DVD

Anyhow, this isn't an attack on Sony, Blu Ray, or anyone who has Blu Ray. I think early adopters are great and keep technology on the move. It's my simple consumer reasoning as to why I chose HD-DVD. We can argue about specs all day long, but I believe these three reasons are why HD-DVD will be the last one standing.

Simple consumer?

I think Sony did pretty good with something called "CD" also.

I think Sony did pretty good with something called "CD" also.

You mean philips?

In 1979, Philips and Sony set up a joint task force of engineers to design a new digital audio disc.....CD

In June 1985, the CD-ROM (read-only memory) and, in 1990, CD-Recordable were introduced, also developed by Sony and Philips.

Even if HD DVD is widely adopted, Blu-ray will still be there, Sony will continue to support them.

I think it's pretty arguable that Sony had anywhere near the equal input into the development of the CD. That's beside the point though. There's no reason to turn this into a "who really developed CD" debate. Almost every format that was solely Sony's attempt has failed. Not to mention the biggest format to date, DVD, was Toshiba's technology winning out over Sony/Philips.

I say 95% of the population doesn't care about either format and thats completely fine by me. This format will most likely be no bigger then Laser disks for enthusiasts who demand the best in pq/sq.

I think it's pretty arguable that Sony had anywhere near the equal input into the development of the CD. That's beside the point though. There's no reason to turn this into a "who really developed CD" debate. Almost every format that was solely Sony's attempt has failed. Not to mention the biggest format to date, DVD, was Toshiba's technology winning out over Sony/Philips.

You are right. But didn't Philips and Sony work on the MMCD jointly so I am not sure it was solely Sony's attempt.

I burned a piece of toast this morning and it looked like a BD. So clearly blu-ray will win.

I wonder if people will finally learn to not support Sony formats. Millions on millions of consumer dollars constantly lost because of Sony. Down the toilet. Or even if they enjoy it for a bit they still had to pay a much higher price for the format. Because Sony refuses to use the standard format (memory stick compared to Compact flash for instance).

Seriously if Blu-ray fails this needs to be THE LAST TIME people support a sony format. Sony just wants to bleed the consumers dry and have total control over all over companies and standards. The way they go about it is all very bad. These Sony Format supporters are like battered wives, they keep going back for another beating.

I say 95% of the population doesn't care about either format and thats completely fine by me. This format will most likely be no bigger then Laser disks for enthusiasts who demand the best in pq/sq.

Normally I'd agree, but people are buying into HDTV like crazy. The HD disc won't be stagnant for long.

Normally I'd agree, but people are buying into HDTV like crazy. The HD disc won't be stagnant for long.

most people are buying it for rock bottom prices for bigger screen flat screens considering all 40+ inches are HDTV. Studys show they are not being used to watch hd content. My parents watch still watch vhs on their 50inch hdtv.

I think Sony did pretty good with something called "CD" also.

What is this "CD" you speak of?

I say 95% of the population doesn't care about either format and thats completely fine by me. This format will most likely be no bigger then Laser disks for enthusiasts who demand the best in pq/sq.

When did we ever see commercials and such a big push to sell hundreds of thousands of laserdisc players over the holidays? It will be much bigger than laserdisc, IMO.

most people are buying it for rock bottom prices for bigger screen flat screens considering all 40+ inches are HDTV. Studys show they are not being used to watch hd content. My parents watch still watch vhs on their 50inch hdtv.

While having the flat screens is something people want, you have to look at the subscriptions to satellite and cable HDTV feeds (I don't know the exact numbers but I know it's getting big), and the explosion in available HD channels. People are waking up to the HDTV phenomenon in a big way. We have ESPNHD to thank for that.

I find it interesting that this price cut and the big sale last week with the 360 add on has moved lots of machines. I noticed a large drop in stock at BB the other day. I really want HD DVD to win but I am very concerned about the Warner situation. I think if the go blu the game might be over. I do however see reasons why the sales numbers alone may not be a good indicator for the future. I have seen sales in media gaining ground on blu lately so at least is giving me some hope. I have both formats but I just do not trust Sony.

Normally I'd agree, but people are buying into HDTV like crazy. The HD disc won't be stagnant for long.

I think the biggest issue stopping most people is the fact that they can buy a new release on DVD for $15 or on an HD format for 25. It's about the money plain and simple.

I think the biggest issue stopping most people is the fact that they can buy a new release on DVD for $15 or on an HD format for 25. It's about the money plain and simple.Absolutely true.
And with a price of sub $200 HD DVD players they will finally go to the average consumers.

I would agree with the first post on the price and technology points. The HDM market doesn't even make a dent into the standard DVD market...it's because those people are waiting it out, don't know anything about the two formats, or they just want something affordable. I would say it is the later two. The key is getting this segment of the market. The only people who care who wins the war are the people who even attend these and other forums and we can't really make a difference in the numbers. With falling prices of HDTV's and HDM players, we'll see this holiday how this all plays out.

However, Blu-ray has been doing a good job in letting the consumer know that it is the format of choice without even referencing the other format. Couple that with the PS3 having a built in blu-ray player, it is an easier choice for the consumers. This is why I don't agree with the 3rd point. I think it is purely wishful thinking that because of their track record...yada yada yada, that they will fail. The Blu-ray group has been doing an excellent job in getting the consumers informed. I can't say the same with Toshiba's piss poor advertising, etc. I hope HD DVD stays for the long haul because I myself am an owner but the biggest mistakes are the poor advertising used to promote this format and Microsofts lack of inclusion of an HD DVD drive in the Xbox 360. Had the Xbox had the drive to begin with, the playing field would have been leveled or even shifted the other way. Because of these mistakes, I don't see a bright future for HD DVD. You have to be a real fanboy to see otherwise. We have no real movies to offer this holiday season versus what Blu-ray is pumping out except for the Harry Potter movies and some other ones...sad to say, it's only invevitable.

Absolutely true.
And with a price of sub $200 HD DVD players they will finally go to the average consumers.

The average consumer isn't going to spend more than $100 to replace a dvd player they bought for $29.99 that still does everything they need it to.

The average consumer isn't going to spend more than $100 to replace a dvd player they bought for $29.99 that still does everything they need it to.
Yes, but with excellent 1080i picture and sound that blows one away they soon forget that $29.99 player :rolleyes:

Yes, but with excellent 1080i picture and sound that blows one away they soon forget that $29.99 player :rolleyes:

How does HD-DVD sound better when it's still limited by the speaker on the front of the TV? Just because you and I care doesn't mean that most consumers still don't.

IHowever, Blu-ray has been doing a good job in letting the consumer know that it is the format of choice without even referencing the other format. Couple that with the PS3 having a built in blu-ray player, it is an easier choice for the consumers.

As for the PS3:

1. If you divide the number of PS3s sold by the number of blu-ray titles sold, you'll see that the overall attachment rate is terrible.

2. "Consumers" aren't going to buy a PS3. If you're talking about mass-market acceptance of a format, you need to ignore game machines. Most people don't use a game machine to play movies -- they wouldn't even consider it.


The biggest nightmare for BD is to become the PS3 format. Blu-ray will FAIL if it doesn't expand beyond the PS3 base.

I don't see a bright future for HD DVD. You have to be a real fanboy to see otherwise. We have no real movies to offer this holiday season versus what Blu-ray is pumping out except for the Harry Potter movies and some other ones...sad to say, it's only invevitable.

Huh?

2 of the top 3 films of 2007 are coming out as HD DVD exclusives. 11 of the top 20 will be available on HD DVD (with the BD number only being 3 higher -- 14 of the top 20).

How does that equal "no real movies" on HD DVD? It's not fanboyism... it just seems pretty damn equal to me. Obviously with a slight favor to BD, but I wouldn't start waving the white flags just yet.

The average consumer isn't going to spend more than $100 to replace a dvd player they bought for $29.99 that still does everything they need it to.
Sure they will. These are the same consumers who are now paying >$100/month cable & sat bills so they can get HD content. HD content is now in the mainstream, and people who watch that NFL game in HD will pop in their favorite DVD and wonder why the quality now "sucks" to them. I have a strong feeling HDM will be huge this Christmas. The HD displays are in people's homes, and are still huge sellers.

You do realize that the reason why the blu-ray camp have the advantage is because of the PS3 don't you? I think ignoring gaming machines is one of the worst things these studios can do. I know a handful of people who bought the PS3 exclusively for HDM playback, and this is just me. If you want to ignore gaming machines then we can go ahead and ignore the xbox 360's figures as well. Sony made a smart decision to put the blu-ray drives in their system...Microsoft....not so smart. Granted that they didn't want to force a format on a consumer....but now they are in talks with Toshiba to put a drive in them? So it's ok now but now back then? This would be even, if not won by HD DVD had this been done from the beginning. Too little too late however, there are too many blu-ray people out there that will be willing to purchase the movies in which you gave them the advantage in. The only thing we can hope is for the pricing scheme on the entry level players to work and hope the masses buy into a more affordable format. If that doesn't happen in the next 2 months in which Warner is basing their decision on, then it will be over.

The mainstream consumer will never purchase a game system as a primary movie player.

1. It doesn't "look" right
2. It's not even in the A/V section of the store
3. They're expensive!

Trojan, you can safely ignore most of the PS3 and include the 360 Addons when comparing the two. I.e. not all PS3 owners bought them because they wanted Blu Ray. You may know some people, and it may seem that way here on AVS, but it's not the mainstream. ALL people who purchased the 360 addon wanted them for HD DVD. Microsoft was not dumb at all for not including HD DVD drives in the 360. That would have drove up the costs and cut sales. Those people camping out in line when the PS3 was released were not there for Blu Ray. The people buying PS3s for $1,000+ on ebay were not buying them for Blu Ray. They were there to buy the next new game system.

The bottom line is when consumers go to the store this year for Christmas presents, if they want a HD media format, they're going to see two black boxes to choose from: One at $179 (or even less), and another at $389. And the salesman won't have a damn thing to say to convince that consumer to pay $200 more for something that displays the same 1920x1080 HD picture.

While having the flat screens is something people want, you have to look at the subscriptions to satellite and cable HDTV feeds (I don't know the exact numbers but I know it's getting big), and the explosion in available HD channels. People are waking up to the HDTV phenomenon in a big way. We have ESPNHD to thank for that.

Hi all, My family pays for HD cable and had no idea they were broadcast on seperate channels until 1 1/2 years after they had had it installed. They thought they were watching it in HD. I laughed at them when I saw what they were doing. They are the typical "Bose is the best quality" tech noobs that the TC is referring to.

The average consumer isn't going to spend more than $100 to replace a dvd player they bought for $29.99 that still does everything they need it to.

That's simply false. Do you think they'll spend several times more buying an HDTV then they spent on their happless CRT 4:3 tube television? The statistics on the growth of flat panel HDTVs undermine your assertions. Therefore, spending $150-199 on an HD player which is backward compatible is less of a challenge than you think on top of the fact I see the prices plunging even further for HD DVD players.

Even if HD DVD is widely adopted, Blu-ray will still be there, Sony will continue to support them.

I agree. There will always be some sort of niche market for Blu-ray just because of the PS3, similar to UMD and the PSP.

That's simply false. Do you think they'll spend several times more buying an HDTV then they spent on their happless CRT 4:3 tube television? The statistics on the growth of flat panel HDTVs undermine your assertions. Therefore, spending $150-199 on an HD player which is backward compatible is less of a challenge than you think on top of the fact I see the prices plunging even further for HD DVD players.

actually....

they are buying flat panels "en masse" because the price of the run of the mill consumer flat panels HAS reached the price that they paid for their existing tube television... they may be giving away tube tv's now... they certainly weren't 10 years ago...

oh, and they are buying them for sports too... :) but if the average flat panel was still $5k or more, they wouldn't be selling...

fwiw, i like hdm... but if i had to live without it tomorrow, i wouldn't cry (well, i might shed a tear or two, but only because i spent money on 2 players ;) )... the difference between sd dvd and hdm is nowhere near the difference between sdtv and hdtv...

because of that, you are always going to have a hard time selling hdm to the average joe/jane... it's relatively easy to sell a hdtv (primarily because of the size and the sports hd content), because anyone who looks at it can tell the difference... not so easy with hdm, since the difference is far more subtle...

My family pays for HD cable and had no idea they were broadcast on seperate channels until 1 1/2 years after they had had it installed.
I see this all the time, friends and family watching SD content (or a full screen dvd) stretched to fill the screen of their new, large HD res set... each and every last one of them convinced they are watching HD content.

A friend recently invited me over to watch a big college football game "in HD". He didn't even have an HD box hooked up to to his set. He tried to argue with me that he was getting the game in HD because the picture filled the screen (his tv in strech mode).

HDM will take off when people stop being ignorant of the improvement HD offers.

I say 95% of the population doesn't care about either format and thats completely fine by me. This format will most likely be no bigger then Laser disks for enthusiasts who demand the best in pq/sq.
how many retailers carried LD's? how much exposure did that format receive? I think the HD formats have gotten a decent amount of exposure through sale ads and commercials. I mean, even Kmart is now carrying them.

I see this all the time, friends and family watching SD content (or a full screen dvd) stretched to fill the screen of their new, large HD res set... each and every last one of them convinced they are watching HD content.

+1

You see this all the time -- sports bars, friends homes, family. Stretched standard def content even thought they (a) have an HDTV and (b) subscribe to HD content.

Look at the surveys they do sometimes... a HUGE percentage of folks don't understand that they need to provide an HDTV content that is in HD. And another HUGE percentage think that standard def stuff on HD looks fine.


Using sales of HDTVs to project sales of HD media is problematic. People are buying HDTVs because prices are dropping and because many stores are pushing them and/or not offering standard def alternatives. They are NOT doing so because of any widespread desire for optimum picture quality. The vast majority of high def sets sold are used in homes to display standard def images using the factory default settings. Those folks aren't rushing out to buy a $200 high def player... and they certainly aren't buying a $400 one.


EDIT: I was recently at the home of a relative and we popped in a DVD to watch. They have a standard 4x3 set (a few years old, fairly high end). Anyway, as soon as the movie started, it was clear that the player was set to 16x9 mode -- all the images were stretched vertically. I went into the setup menu and fixed it... but they had the player set incorrectly since they first bought it 6 months ago. They didn't notice or, frankly, seem to care that I had fixed it. This is the "average consumer". It's going to be an uphill battle with HD media adoption in general. With two competing formats, it's going to be practically impossible. I'm beginning to accept that we're going to be looking at a laserdisc-esque niche (larger that that audience, but a niche nonetheless).

the difference between sd dvd and hdm is nowhere near the difference between sdtv and hdtv...
How can you say this? It's exactly the same difference. Going from 480 scan lines to 720 or 1080.

I think the OP has the right idea from the 'simple customer' point of view, but there could be much more than that.

From my experience, and not just with the HD format war, a lot of people have a lot of opinion on electronics. Many Asians I know SWEAR by Sony, and will buy them at any price because it's a SONY. Personally, I'm really swearing off it because every thing Sony makes is proprietary (almost).

Just to be clear, I have a PS2, and loved it. I currently own a HD-DVD player, and will eventually get a PS3 within the next 6 months or so. It's just that when I speak about HD-DVD, people will automatically say 'it sucks' without really giving me a good reason, except for the fact that Blu-Ray is better because it's....a SONY.

Those folks aren't rushing out to buy a $200 high def player... and they certainly aren't buying a $400 one.

I agree and disagree. I agree that folks won't pay $400, but when given the choice of a $400 player vs a $200 player, the $200 player looks inexpensive to them. It's almost like Blu Ray's higher player prices will help out HD DVD this Christmas season.

I disagree that people wouldn't buy a $200 in the first place. Somehow DISH and other HD providers are convincing people to pay massive up front setup costs (in the $1,000s+), or tacking on $15-20+/month charges for HD equipment, and they're selling them everywhere. I do not know a single person who has an HD capable and does not have some type HD content in the house. Everyone wants HD content. I've never seen more moaning and groaning from my fellow Texas Tech Football fans when we found out the ABC regional game wasn't going to be in HD.

How can you say this? It's exactly the same difference. Going from 480 scan lines to 720 or 1080.

how can i say it? by owning a hd set for many years, and by trusting my eyes...

going from a 4:3 sdtv to a 16X9 hdtv (and getting the associated highdef signal) has a MUCH greater impact than going from a sd dvd (displayed on a 16X9 set) to hdm (displayed on a 16X9 set)...

Well that is a good point, that we had widescreen DVD movies, but 480 lines of resolution to 1080 is an enormous leap, whether its from SDTV -> HDTV or SD DVD -> HDM. While people defintely enjoy the widescreen stuff, the real wow factor of HD is the resolution, not the wide screen.

I agree and disagree. I agree that folks won't pay $400, but when given the choice of a $400 player vs a $200 player, the $200 player looks inexpensive to them.

But they aren't comparing $400 to $200. They're comparing $400 (BD) to $200 (HD) to $50 (upconvert) to $20 (standard).

If people even get to that point (and most won't even look at anything in the $400-200 range), THIS is the comparison they're making. And the vast majority of them are fine with the Colby $20 player or the cheapo $50 upconverter (which says "HD" all over the box). Most people won't even give it that level of thought -- they'll just connect their existing DVD player to the TV and enjoy the "amazing" picture that they see.

If you think that there's a lot of people today that'll spend $200 for a movie player and $30 per movie, I think you're mistaken. The marketplace has moved on... people are used to paying a lot less for both hardware and software. HD won't move in quantity at those price points.

I disagree that people wouldn't buy a $200 in the first place...I do not know a single person who has an HD capable and does not have some type HD content in the house. Everyone wants HD content.

I would argue that you have a very unique circle of friends, then. I know dozens of people with HD sets... and I know ONE person, other than myself that has an HD feed coming in. And one person with a PS3 (who owns 1 BD bought as a novelty). That's it.

Surveys are showing that my experience is more typical. People are buying HD sets because they like the flat panels, think they're cool, and the prices are dropping. But they are not flocking to get HD signals hooked up to them. In fact, the majority of folks are not even aware that they need to do so.

You do realize that the reason why the blu-ray camp have the advantage is because of the PS3 don't you? I think ignoring gaming machines is one of the worst things these studios can do. I know a handful of people who bought the PS3 exclusively for HDM playback, and this is just me. If you want to ignore gaming machines then we can go ahead and ignore the xbox 360's figures as well. Sony made a smart decision to put the blu-ray drives in their system...Microsoft....not so smart. Granted that they didn't want to force a format on a consumer....but now they are in talks with Toshiba to put a drive in them? So it's ok now but now back then? This would be even, if not won by HD DVD had this been done from the beginning. Too little too late however, there are too many blu-ray people out there that will be willing to purchase the movies in which you gave them the advantage in. The only thing we can hope is for the pricing scheme on the entry level players to work and hope the masses buy into a more affordable format. If that doesn't happen in the next 2 months in which Warner is basing their decision on, then it will be over.



well, I hope you know that many of those PS3 owners are also buying HD DVD players to watch transformer etc as the prices are very low now ($176) and ($198)

Today, people with at least Directv or subscribing to it, are getting questions about the type of tv they have..if HDTV, then they are being told about the new technology and the amount of HD channels avalible...once the installation's completed DTV is calling the cust asking questions about what type of dish they have outside, if it has 5 LNBs and if the HD IRD or HDDVR has the B-Band converter in the back with the HDMI cable as well, therefore insuring that the cust is getting the right HD quality...and this I personally know for a fact....so the j6p is getting more awared and educated about the HD technology than they did a year ago.

You do realize that the reason why the blu-ray camp have the advantage is because of the PS3 don't you?

Absolutely. I don't think that anyone could deny that -- if the PS3 didn't exist -- HD DVD would be ahead by a LOT.

I think ignoring gaming machines is one of the worst things these studios can do. I know a handful of people who bought the PS3 exclusively for HDM playback

I don't think "ignoring" gamers is the answer. But if you FOCUS on gamers, you're in for a world of hurt. Gamers is a limited audience, by definition. Presumably, studios are looking for HD to become the next mainstream format, not the next Playstation or X-box format. Look at the number of PS2/3s and X-box 360s sold. Now compare that to the number of DVD players sold.

*That's* the danger of catering to a gamer audience. That's fine during an early-adopter phase, but if you ever want this to go even semi-mainstream, you can't be known as the "PS3 format". 95% of the population will hear "blu-ray" and think "That's for those video game machines... I don't do that."

If you want to ignore gaming machines then we can go ahead and ignore the xbox 360's figures as well.

Apples and oranges.

PS3s can be used just for games. And, given the sales figures so far vs. BD software, they appear to be selling for that purpose primarily.

An Xbox add-on has a single purpose -- to play HD DVDs. No one is spending $180 (or whatever) on an add-on if they don't intend to buy HD movies. *Plenty* of people are buying PS3s who do not intend to buy BD movies.

Sony made a smart decision to put the blu-ray drives in their system.

Have you looked at their financials for PS3 lately? I don't even think that Sony would make that statement at this point. It's looking like they bet their entire (highly-profitable) video game future on blu-ray... and it's looking like they're losing that bet.

So it's ok now but now back then? This would be even, if not won by HD DVD had this been done from the beginning. Too little too late however, there are too many blu-ray people out there that will be willing to purchase the movies in which you gave them the advantage in.

Care to translate this section into English. ;) I'm not following...

The only thing we can hope is for the pricing scheme on the entry level players to work and hope the masses buy into a more affordable format. If that doesn't happen in the next 2 months in which Warner is basing their decision on, then it will be over.

We've seen these arbitrary deadlines posted time and again. Q4 is VERY important for both formats, no doubt. But nothing is going to happen in the next two months that is fatal for either format. There's too many variables and too few adopters at this point. "The masses" aren't going to buy into either format this year.

But they aren't comparing $400 to $200. They're comparing $400 (BD) to $200 (HD) to $50 (upconvert) to $20 (standard).
Not at all. Like I said already, people are shelling out the extra $$ to get HD content, so paying $200 or even less for a HDM player isn't that much of a stretch. When people will pay $600 for an iPhone, they'll pay $200 for a HD DVD player.

If you think that there's a lot of people today that'll spend $200 for a movie player and $30 per movie, I think you're mistaken. The marketplace has moved on... people are used to paying a lot less for both hardware and software. HD won't move in quantity at those price points.
Which is exactly why those price points are going down... the Toshiba players have already been announced to be around $179 at Best Buy of all places. We all know how much Walmart will beat that. I wouldn't be shocked to see HD DVD players at wally world for $100 when this black friday stuff rolls around. And which HD DVDs did you buy that were $30? The going rate I see is $25, with rumor that Walmart will be having HD DVDs in the $14.88 bin.

I would argue that you have a very unique circle of friends, then. I know dozens of people with HD sets... and I know ONE person, other than myself that has an HD feed coming in. And one person with a PS3 (who owns 1 BD bought as a novelty). That's it.

Surveys are showing that my experience is more typical. People are buying HD sets because they like the flat panels, think they're cool, and the prices are dropping. But they are not flocking to get HD signals hooked up to them. In fact, the majority of folks are not even aware that they need to do so.
I'm sorry but you're just flat out wrong. I believe you're the one with the "unique circle of friends". I find it very hard to believe that you have "dozens" of friends who have HDTVs and only one of them has any HD sat or cable service (or even ATSC OTA). For some reason the statistics seem difficult to find (without having to pay???), but I do know that Comcast has 38% of their digital subscribers (5 million customers) with HD subscriptions (http://www.tvpredictions.com/comcastsubs042607.htm). And that's just one provider. I don't think I can watch TV for more than an hour and not see a commercial for directv or dish or comcast (in my area) touting their various HD packages. Whether you like it or not, HDTV is mainstream now.

I'm sorry but you're just flat out wrong.

Funny, because I feel the same way about your opinions. ;)

I find it very hard to believe that you have "dozens" of friends who have HDTVs and only one of them has any HD sat or cable service (or even ATSC OTA).

Well, it's true. Most people that I know don't care one way or the other. But the ones that *do* care about movies/PQ simply seem to love big TVs. HDTVs are cheap now and are big. They look "cool". The actual content is an afterthought... and is nearly always standard def.

OTA is a joke. Other than some true enthusiasts, I don't know anyone who would go back to the old "bunny ears" concept with their HDTVs. Do you know any "average" consumers that have done this? Really?

Whether you like it or not, HDTV is mainstream now.

Believe me, I'd like nothing more than for HD viewing to be mainstream. I have an HDTV, HD cable, an HD DVD player, and about 50 HD DVDs. I'd love to have more.

But the reality is that I'm seeing friends and family buy HDTVs without adding HD to their cable service. I'm seeing nearly every fricking sports bar I go into showing standard def stretch-o-vision on their new flatscreens. And I'm seeing articles in the WSJ stating that 65% of people buying HDTVs think that their standard cable and DVDs are now in "HD".


I think it's more of an uphill battle than you're implying... and I think it's a stretch to think that "mainstream consumers" are willing to pay $200+ for a new player and $30 per movie to get "HD" on a selection of ~300 titles. A lot of folks are VERY, VERY happy with the quality of their standard DVDs. Especially on their new HDTVs.

Standard DVD is kicking HDs ass in terms of pricing and selection. Everyone's going to have to work extra hard to convice folks otherwise.

You see this all the time -- sports bars, friends homes, family. Stretched standard def content even thought they (a) have an HDTV and (b) subscribe to HD content.

Bars - GRR! It's especially bad when they have big signs that say "ALL GAMES IN HD!"

Family - my brother doesn't have an HD cable box, but he gets the SD image stretched on his 50" TV and thinks he's watching HD. He recently asked if he could borrow Transformers, and I told him it was an HD disc, and it wouldn't work on his 1999 Panasonic non-progressive-scan DVD Player. He told me he wants to try it anyway, just in case. It's hard to even know what to say to that...

Well that is a good point, that we had widescreen DVD movies, but 480 lines of resolution to 1080 is an enormous leap, whether its from SDTV -> HDTV or SD DVD -> HDM. While people defintely enjoy the widescreen stuff, the real wow factor of HD is the resolution, not the wide screen.

nah... not when it comes to sd dvd vs. hdm... the differences are much more subtle than you'd like people to believe...

is there a difference? sure. but is it enough to make the average joe change? nope. "we" may go on and on about shadow detail, pop, etc. etc., but to 99% of the population, it looks basically the same.

think about it... if all the knowledge you had about dvd/hd-dvd/bluray came from avs, you'd think that region-coding was about the most important issue affecting the industry... guess what? 99% of the people out there don't care...

To Impala454 and BBoisvert:I'd hate to see a beautiful friendship ruined. You're both arguing a hypothesis that has yet to be tested.

By the way, has anyone seen anything about Warner's big announcement yet? Thought not.

high-def media WILL eventually take off, in my opinion, because American consumers are always looking for the next best thing to buy. Ipods, HDTV, Dyson super-suction vaccuum cleaners....if there's a new toy out there, it will eventually catch the eye of even the average consumer, regardless of whether they know what it is, what it does or how to operate it.

J6P is an impressionable, naive, compulsive spender. That's just the way it is.

Don't believe me? Drive by Best Buy at 2 a.m. on Black Friday and see how long the line is.

actually....

they are buying flat panels "en masse" because the price of the run of the mill consumer flat panels HAS reached the price that they paid for their existing tube television... they may be giving away tube tv's now... they certainly weren't 10 years ago...

oh, and they are buying them for sports too... :) but if the average flat panel was still $5k or more, they wouldn't be selling...

fwiw, i like hdm... but if i had to live without it tomorrow, i wouldn't cry (well, i might shed a tear or two, but only because i spent money on 2 players ;) )... the difference between sd dvd and hdm is nowhere near the difference between sdtv and hdtv...

because of that, you are always going to have a hard time selling hdm to the average joe/jane... it's relatively easy to sell a hdtv (primarily because of the size and the sports hd content), because anyone who looks at it can tell the difference... not so easy with hdm, since the difference is far more subtle...

Not even close. My old crt 4:3 televisions never hit more the $600-700 mark and that was 28-32". Now, bigger screens are selling for $1000 more but since it's HD and it's "in" people will and are buying it. The next step is to actually use the high def. That's a learning curve. But once people buy the hd receiver (another cost) then they DO see a difference and that $150 or less for an HD DVD player (and it WILL be less in another 6 months) will be peanuts. The reality is we were still buying, 3 years after dvd was introduced, progressive dvd players for around $300. Just over a year after the introduction of high def media we now have players which have moved faster and lower than dvd ever did. And I completely disagree about the perceptual difference. It's actually a characteristic of women not to be as enamoured. Men tend to be highly impressed when exposed to high def. They usually move the equipment to the next stage.

Seems that there are 3 camps, those that think HD DVD will fail, those that are neutral like me, and those that are optimistic about HD DVD's future. I'm supporting HD DVD all the way, I love my HD-A35, but I'm not arguing for one side or the other, just trying to take a neutral stance here and if you guys can convince me that everything is cool, then I'm fine by it. The reality is that HD DVD has major catching up to do. Hardware sales won't do it alone. It is the software and if you think HD DVD will close the gap in 2 months what we couldn't have done in 10 (this year only), then you are crazy. I don't know what the stats are, but if HD DVD players are selling more than stand alone blu-ray players, then why are we in the position that we are in now? If it is blu-ray players selling more than HD DVD players, what is the player and the amount we have to sell to catch up to and beat? What is the attach rates that we must achieve? With Warner looking at the next few months to base their decision on, does it not alarm any of you of the monumental feat that HD DVD has to achieve? I hope you guys are all right about what's going to happen...but like you guys, I'm in for the long haul, hopefully it is the right decision.

Your typical consumer isn't going to muddle over technical specs, they just want HD content. This is why the technology side of the discussion is utterly pointless.

Yes, they want content. And it appears they are prepared to pay a premium for it (movies from bluray studios). How else to explain the bigger numbers for standalone BR players, when HD-DVD players were/are much cheaper? The bluray ads on the telly only reinforce this.

Take an average family with young kids. They want to see the disney movies in HD. If they have seen and retained the ads, they know they have to get something "Blu" to get their disney fix. Even if they haven't seen the ads (and given the proliferation of DVRs, quite likely), it's obvious when they peruse the media. The idea that people will slavishly buy the A1,2,3,4,5 at $1xx or even $xx simply because it is cheaper than it ever was is madness. Everything in the CE field becomes cheaper with time. Yes, initial purchase price is a factor, but I hazard that it is not the top reason to buy. Content is king.

Not even close. My old crt 4:3 televisions never hit more the $600-700 mark and that was 28-32". Now, bigger screens are selling for $1000 more but since it's HD and it's "in" people will and are buying it...

actually, you might want to rethink that... i'd bet that the great majority of sets that are sold are in the 900-1500 range... i paid around 700 for my last tube set about 15 years ago... figuring in inflation, etc. that 700 bucks back then falls pretty much towards the high end of that range today...

look... i have a display that doesn't suck... i have a s1 and and an a20... so i have an idea of what i'm looking at... the simple fact of the matter is the "night and day" difference between sd dvd and hdm that we on avs talk about simply doesn't exist for the average consumer...

it DOES exist when going from their old sdtv to their new 16X9 hdtv (especially when they hook up their stb correctly)... but there's nowhere near that difference when going from sd dvd to hdm...

i just don't see the "upgrade" scenario playing out...

now, i'd definitely buy into the "my existing player broke, and this here new fancy hddvd player is 99 bucks, i'll buy that"... but that doesn't mean they'll go buy hd-dvd's if they are still twice the price of sddvds...

don't get me wrong... i WANT hdm to live long and prosper... but i'm realistic about the differences here...

actually, you might want to rethink that... i'd bet that the great majority of sets that are sold are in the 900-1500 range... i paid around 700 for my last tube set about 15 years ago... figuring in inflation, etc. that 700 bucks back then falls pretty much towards the high end of that range today...

look... i have a display that doesn't suck... i have a s1 and and an a20... so i have an idea of what i'm looking at... the simple fact of the matter is the "night and day" difference between sd dvd and hdm that we on avs talk about simply doesn't exist for the average consumer...

it DOES exist when going from their old sdtv to their new 16X9 hdtv (especially when they hook up their stb correctly)... but there's nowhere near that difference when going from sd dvd to hdm...

i just don't see the "upgrade" scenario playing out...

now, i'd definitely buy into the "my existing player broke, and this here new fancy hddvd player is 99 bucks, i'll buy that"... but that doesn't mean they'll go buy hd-dvd's if they are still twice the price of sddvds...

don't get me wrong... i WANT hdm to live long and prosper... but i'm realistic about the differences here...


If we're quibling over a few hundred dollars then I've made my point. You stated which people paying $30 for a dvd player will shell out roughly $150 or less for an HD DVD player? Come on. A lot more than would presumably pay $1000 plus for an HDTV.

In any event, I completely disagree with your characterization of the difference. The moment I saw high def I was awestruck. I couldn't get enough of it and started making preps to buy my first HDTV a 61" 1080i rptv - crt Hitachi. That was despite the fact there were few HD channels. No turning back.

The movement though to HD will not be a matter of choice though. It will be inevitable. We the users will push the technology forward and inevitability is the way it should be. So really, this discussion is almost irrelevant.

While having the flat screens is something people want, you have to look at the subscriptions to satellite and cable HDTV feeds (I don't know the exact numbers but I know it's getting big), and the explosion in available HD channels. People are waking up to the HDTV phenomenon in a big way. We have ESPNHD to thank for that.

The numbers aren't as big as you think

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com:80/news/2007/10/nielsen_release.php

So people think that just because they bought an HD tv, that no matter what they run thru it it's HD?

That reminds me back in the day when color TVs first came out and the TV Guide would put a small c next to the program that was broadcast in color.

I thought that meant that it should be in color even though we only had a black and white TV!!

Of course I was only 6 at the time!!

What's up with all the rest of these people?? Are they all 6 too?

Once people can see an HDDVD player in action, in the comfort of their homes, most will not want to go back to SDDVDs. All Toshiba/Walmart need to do is get people to buy the machine. The quality of the picture will sell itself after that.

I think the OP has the right idea from the 'simple customer' point of view, but there could be much more than that.

From my experience, and not just with the HD format war, a lot of people have a lot of opinion on electronics. Many Asians I know SWEAR by Sony, and will buy them at any price because it's a SONY. Personally, I'm really swearing off it because every thing Sony makes is proprietary (almost).

Just to be clear, I have a PS2, and loved it. I currently own a HD-DVD player, and will eventually get a PS3 within the next 6 months or so. It's just that when I speak about HD-DVD, people will automatically say 'it sucks' without really giving me a good reason, except for the fact that Blu-Ray is better because it's....a SONY.

That's 100% true. Asians, especially Chinese people, will not buy anything except Sony. Being Asian myself, I'm the exception.

I say 95% of the population doesn't care about either format and thats completely fine by me. This format will most likely be no bigger then Laser disks for enthusiasts who demand the best in pq/sq.


True...and...Could happen...

Yes, they want content. And it appears they are prepared to pay a premium for it (movies from bluray studios). How else to explain the bigger numbers for standalone BR players, when HD-DVD players were/are much cheaper?

Can you show me the sales info you're referring to? Because I've yet to see anything to indicate to me that BD standalone players are outselling HD DVD players.

BD software is outselling HD DVD by approx. a 2:1 ratio... but that's easily explained at this point by the PS3. But your standalone stats seem to be incorrect.

Yes, they want content. And it appears they are prepared to pay a premium for it (movies from bluray studios). How else to explain the bigger numbers for standalone BR players, when HD-DVD players were/are much cheaper? The bluray ads on the telly only reinforce this.

This has never been the case (well maybe in one month Blu Ray standalones sold more but that's it):
Sally said third-party research indicated Toshiba’s market share of next-generation players on both formats was now at about 60%. She went on to say that the format had experienced a significant unit upturn with sales of HD DVD-enabled PC laptops.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Toshiba/Kmart/High-Def_Retailing/Kmart_Goes_HD_DVD_Toshiba_Says_Recent_Price_Cuts_Retail-Driven/1129

The numbers aren't as big as you think

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com:80/news/2007/10/nielsen_release.php

11.3% of all households in the US which have a TV isn't a big number?!??:confused:

nah... not when it comes to sd dvd vs. hdm... the differences are much more subtle than you'd like people to believe...

is there a difference? sure. but is it enough to make the average joe change? nope. "we" may go on and on about shadow detail, pop, etc. etc., but to 99% of the population, it looks basically the same.

think about it... if all the knowledge you had about dvd/hd-dvd/bluray came from avs, you'd think that region-coding was about the most important issue affecting the industry... guess what? 99% of the people out there don't care...

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't see how one could disagree though when you're talking about 345,600 pixels vs 2,073,600 pixels. I suppose you're reading this from a good ol 640x480 monitor? I mean there's not any difference between it and a 1280x1024 monitor right? ;)

To Impala454 and BBoisvert:I'd hate to see a beautiful friendship ruined. You're both arguing a hypothesis that has yet to be tested.

By the way, has anyone seen anything about Warner's big announcement yet? Thought not.

Oh no worries there... I just tend to enjoy a good debate, as it appears plenty others do. It's a healthy discussion so far I think :)

The point of the thread was to try to approach this same old argument from a consumer perspective rather than the same ol' technical debate.

And on the whole HD-DVD must get cheaper, head on over to www.walmart.com/secret and see just how much cheaper they're going ;)

Surveys are showing that my experience is more typical. People are buying HD sets because they like the flat panels, think they're cool, and the prices are dropping. But they are not flocking to get HD signals hooked up to them. In fact, the majority of folks are not even aware that they need to do so.

Please provide links to your "surveys". Here I can provide links to some media reported surveys: http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20071031/tc_pcworld/139124;_ylt=AnSpD7oICfJb0UvOCz95PTwjtBAF

I think you're just repeating crap you've read here rather than actually looking up real sources on this subject.

In any event, I completely disagree with your characterization of the difference. The moment I saw high def I was awestruck. I couldn't get enough of it and started making preps to buy my first HDTV a 61" 1080i rptv - crt Hitachi. That was despite the fact there were few HD channels. No turning back.

:rolleyes: yes, this is EXACTLY what i've said a number of times... read for content...

there's a HUGE impact going from a sdtv to hdtv...

but on that hdtv, there is a MUCH more subtle difference between sddvd and hdm... is there a difference? sure. is it the "OMG NIGHT AND DAY!!!!!!!" difference that gets bandied about here... no...

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't see how one could disagree though when you're talking about 345,600 pixels vs 2,073,600 pixels. I suppose you're reading this from a good ol 640x480 monitor? I mean there's not any difference between it and a 1280x1024 monitor right? ;)

you don't see how one could disagree because you've already made up your mind... ;)

the monitor analogy doesn't wash...

look, you don't have to believe me.... go look aroud avs... there's any number of posts from hdm owners anecdotally reporting what i'm saying, that their friends either "don't see a difference" or "wonder why they spent the money for that"...

again, i'm not giving up my hdm players... but people need to understand that the general public doesn't "see" the difference the way that someone posting here does...

11.3% of all households in the US which have a TV isn't a big number?!??:confused:

no. not compared to 89.7%... :)

turn the numbers around in your mind... imagine if someone told you that "widget a" outnumbered "widget b" by a 9 to 1 margin... "widget b" doesn't seem to have much of a share when looked at that way, does it?

You do realize that the reason why the blu-ray camp have the advantage is because of the PS3 don't you? I think ignoring gaming machines is one of the worst things these studios can do. I know a handful of people who bought the PS3 exclusively for HDM playback, and this is just me. If you want to ignore gaming machines then we can go ahead and ignore the xbox 360's figures as well. Sony made a smart decision to put the blu-ray drives in their system...Microsoft....not so smart. Granted that they didn't want to force a format on a consumer....but now they are in talks with Toshiba to put a drive in them? So it's ok now but now back then? This would be even, if not won by HD DVD had this been done from the beginning. Too little too late however, there are too many blu-ray people out there that will be willing to purchase the movies in which you gave them the advantage in. The only thing we can hope is for the pricing scheme on the entry level players to work and hope the masses buy into a more affordable format. If that doesn't happen in the next 2 months in which Warner is basing their decision on, then it will be over.

Your 100% correct there on how sony got blu-ray players in peoples home.I went to a harvey norman store(A big retail chain in Australia) and was originally looking for a standalone bd player and was told the ps3 has a blu-ray player why would we need to stock standalones.But again by saying that how many really use it as a bd player? I have two diffrent regions players and at the moment I think they cant be beat.

Please provide links to your "surveys".

...

I think you're just repeating crap you've read here rather than actually looking up real sources on this subject.

Maybe you should be a little more careful about accusing me of "just repeating crap". I realize this is just a message board, but a bit of civility goes a long way.

Here are some fun ones... if you poke around, you'll find more:

http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=6521
Results show that nearly half (49%) of HDTV owners surveyed are not taking full advantage of their HD televisions, as defined by receiving HD channels and having special equipment to watch HD programming (including an HD set-top box, a CableCARD, and/or an antenna).

...

* Close to one in four (28%) of HDTV owners reported that they did not get any special equipment from their service provider to watch HDTV channels because the picture quality was already improved with the purchase of an HDTV.

* 23% of HDTV owners did not invest in special equipment to watch HDTV channels because a message at the beginning of the programs they watch tells them that those programs are being broadcast in HD.

* Nearly one in five (18%) reported that they believed the HD television would give them high-definition channels without additional equipment.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6485580.html
Perhaps more alarming for the future of high-def were the results of a survey conducted by Best Buy, which found widespread consumer confusion about HDTV.

According to the survey, close to 90% of Americans say they lack a complete understanding of HDTV technology, and nearly half significantly underestimate the costs.

“You won't believe the number of times that someone will come in to a Best Buy and say, 'I just want a flat TV,” Best Buy VP of home theater merchandising Mike Mohan told CNNMoney.


http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html
Sales are likely to grow slowly until consumers have a better understanding of what high-definition DVD and the two separate formats are, said Russ Crupnick, NPD Group VP-senior industry analyst of entertainment.

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either format.

you don't see how one could disagree because you've already made up your mind... ;)

the monitor analogy doesn't wash...

look, you don't have to believe me.... go look aroud avs... there's any number of posts from hdm owners anecdotally reporting what i'm saying, that their friends either "don't see a difference" or "wonder why they spent the money for that"...

again, i'm not giving up my hdm players... but people need to understand that the general public doesn't "see" the difference the way that someone posting here does...

Hmm... so your generalization is ok but my generalization combined with the cold hard fact that you're getting 4 times the resolution "doesn't wash"? Every person I have shown my HD-DVD setup to has been amazed at the PQ and wanted to know how to get it at their home. And yes, even those who already have HDTVs and HD cable/sat.

tell me the difference between these two:

1. SDTV -> HDTV : 640x480 -> 1920x1080
2. SDDVD -> HDM : 640x480 -> 1920x1080

no. not compared to 89.7%... :)

turn the numbers around in your mind... imagine if someone told you that "widget a" outnumbered "widget b" by a 9 to 1 margin... "widget b" doesn't seem to have much of a share when looked at that way, does it?
I am fully aware of how statistics work. But the problem most statisticians have is that they're too busy looking at numbers to understand the context. I gotta say that every company out there who has anything to do with HD content is very interested in 11.3% of US TV household's money. How about the statistic that 82% of households with a HDTV receive HD content?? If they truly don't see the difference and just buy the HDTV because they're flat, how come 82% of them actually receive HD channels?

Either way, I'm not sure how these tie to the topic at hand. Are you saying you don't believe HD-DVD will be the last one standing because people aren't going to buy into high definition products?

enough.