View Full Version : Nielsen Prediction Thread for 11/23 (Predictions due by 11/21)


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fulcizombie
11-23-07, 11:25 AM
Seems like the various BOGOs somewhat worked.

Greg Kettell
11-23-07, 11:25 AM
I didn't see a single commercial or in-store display that mentioned HD DVD.

They had two HD DVD specific commercials for Shrek 3 (donkey & dragon/Gingerbread man) that received quite a bit of buzz.

Pecker
11-23-07, 11:26 AM
How does that work?

The only big new release is HD DVD exclusive and last week was 65:35.

Those new A2 owners buying Shrek 3 from Wal-Mart?

Steve W

RDarrylR
11-23-07, 11:28 AM
How does that work?

The only big new release is HD DVD exclusive and last week was 65:35.

Those new A2 owners buying Shrek 3 from Wal-Mart?

Steve W

Yep Walmart likely sold millions of copies of Shrek 3 in HD.

edgebsl
11-23-07, 11:28 AM
What was it transfered from?;)

Perhaps a Sony tape format?
Digibeta or HdCam? lol!


Probably stored on hard disc but that's a funny thought.

fulcizombie
11-23-07, 11:32 AM
How dores that work?

The only big new release is HD DVD exclusive and last week was 65:35.

Those new A2 owners buying Shrek 3 from Wal-Mart?

Steve W
Although your post doesn't really ask for a serious reply i'll bite:
Just like i was saying weeks ago, animation movies don't make a difference in the high-def market. Just like the Disney assault last week didn't make a huge difference (the 65-35 is on par with a usual week), shrek3 just kept the ratio same as last week in spite of both sony and disney giving a shitload of disks for free.

Unless a new release is of the caliber of spider-man or transformers , it seems to me that the various "offers" play the biggest role in nielsen's ratios nowadays. I predict that the "die hard" movies will also not have a big impact on next week's nielsen numbers and the ratio will be between 65-35 and 60-40.

Slim GoodBooty
11-23-07, 11:34 AM
Perhaps a Sony tape format?
Digibeta or HdCam? lol!


Probably stored on hard disc but that's a funny thought.

That was my point. There was no "transfer" of Shrek as far as I know. It went from digital to digital. It was copied and processed. Dave knows the difference.

edgebsl
11-23-07, 11:49 AM
Other than CE, this kinda was a filler week for BD.

This was the other week that many from both sides believed might have produced a neilsen lead for hd dvd.

I even thought it might 2 months ago.

Winn
11-23-07, 12:10 PM
Last week Dave told us what the numbers were before Home Media Magazine came out and he was right. Looks like 66:34 is it.

If HMM does not come out today, I will use Dave's numbers until we get word from HMM.

Seems like the various BOGOs somewhat worked.

Was there one other than the Amazon sale?

How does that work?

The only big new release is HD DVD exclusive and last week was 65:35.

Those new A2 owners buying Shrek 3 from Wal-Mart?

Steve W

Or they simply did not bother at all. Animation transfers beautifully to HD, but the sales have been somewhat disappointing. See my analysis of Amazon performance of animation in my prediction.

The format-exclusive releases are:

Blu-ray Disc:

Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Sony)
Dragon Ball Z - Broly Double Feature (FUNimation)
IMAX: Africa the Serengeti (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Alaska Spirit of the Wild (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Antarctica -- An Adventure of a Different Nature (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Australia Land Beyond Time (Razor Digital)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Vol. Three (Starz)
Prison Break: Season One (Fox)

HD DVD:

Pride & Prejudice (2005)
Shrek the Third


And remember, Shrek 3 had a pretty big prime time TV advertising campaign behind the HD DVD release. Not to mention that it took more money than Transformers...or Ratatouille, for that matter.

In fact, it took more money than Close Encounters... did in its many guises and cuts.

If Nielsen swings 1% to BD after that, their credibility just goes up in smoke.

Steve W

No amount of advertising can make people buy something they do not want. Shrek the Third's reviews were far from positive. Even the ones that were positive tended to be less than glowing. Just glance at it's page at Rotten Tomatoes (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/shrek_the_third/) to see what I am saying. It scored worse than SM3, and that had a lot of negative buzz.

Also, adjusted for inflation, CE3K made more than Shrek by about 40M.

EDIT: Lest I forget, if you do not like the results, please do not attack the validity of the numbers. The Mods have spoken out against that.

Neo1965
11-23-07, 12:34 PM
There is an undeniable pent up demand to discuss the nielsen numbers. Perhaps the mods can be lenient on friday afternoons as the only time when the strategizing and thinking between the blu and red teams and the results for that week can be discussed somewhere?

I'm thinking given how the 2007's two biggest grossing red movies (appear) to have passed without the expected impact, there is conscious planning on both sides. (IMO).

Just an observation : did people realize that the latest few releases have quite a few that have shot to the top list of HDM disks, in many cases, in 1 week, replacing previous movies that had taken months to build up their sale numbers!

What can this mean? ;)

JBlacklow
11-23-07, 12:41 PM
Seems like the various BOGOs somewhat worked.The only BOGO I heard of was SPHE and BVHE @ Amazon. What were the others?

Rich Peterson
11-23-07, 12:46 PM
EDIT: Lest I forget, if you do not like the results, please do not attack the validity of the numbers. The Mods have spoken out against that.
This is absolutely true. For those who may have missed it, see this post from David Bott (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12181168#post12181168) where he says The main Nielson one with the chat in it was the one receiving the most reported posts, from members on both sides, that it was just too much to deal with. It just is not worth it. It seems when one source claims sales of 5 for one format and sales of 3 for another, the one with 3 says the data can not be trusted. (Not just Nelson, but also Amazon.) When it goes back the other way, now the data can be trusted. Go figure.

All in all, keep this on track and no one gets hurt.

Pecker
11-23-07, 12:49 PM
That says why the Nielsen thread was closed - not that it was not permitted to mention that Nielsen doesn't include Wal-Mart.

WEith all due respect, I never said Nielsen were invalid.

They're valid in as far as they claim to be (ie. they don't include a massive chunk of the market). It appears that some people are claiming more accuracy for Nielsen than they claim for themselves.

Steve W

Neo1965
11-23-07, 12:54 PM
This is absolutely true. For those who may have missed it, see this post from David Bott (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12181168#post12181168) where he says

It's kinda sad, that as adults we often get shown how little it takes to get us riled up and act like bawling kids when the stakes are so low and meaningless. I can count the times when I struggled against typing in something stupid and inane and lost. And this without even good beer to pin the excuse on.

The nielsen numbers are fun, regardless of whether you like them or not, and they're still the only widely studied number to gauge the real growth or non growth of HDM. For example, the number I'm most interested in is the % of the HDM sale against the DVD release. When it's available, I'd like to see that trend go up. So far, 300 with almost 5% combined appears to be a blip, most others languish in the 1%-3% range, some even look like they did about 0.5% of the same day release in DVD.

phansson
11-23-07, 12:55 PM
I agree that we NEED a nielson discussion thread.


That says why the Nielsen thread was closed - not that it was not permitted to mention that Nielsen doesn't include Wal-Mart.


Remember, for every 35% of hd dvd's not reported by Wal Mart, there are 65% of Blu Rays not being reported*.

*Since incepetion numbers.

eightninesuited
11-23-07, 01:01 PM
Doesn't Neilsen do an estimate for Walmart numbers?

Pecker
11-23-07, 01:02 PM
I agree that we NEED a nielson discussion thread.




Remember, for every 35% of hd dvd's not reported by Wal Mart, there are 65% of Blu Rays not being reported*.

*Since incepetion numbers.

You see, that's a good point. We can discuss it like adults.

Wal-Mart are 40% of the SD DVD market.

It's likely (or at least possible) it takes a bigger than 40% cut of the high def market after selling so many A2s so suddenly.

But that would be weighted to A2 owners, which is to say HD DVD, not BD owners.

This is proper, adult, scientific discussion.

Steve W

Slim GoodBooty
11-23-07, 01:04 PM
You see, that's a good point. We can discuss it like adults.

Wal-Mart are 40% of the SD DVD market.

It's likely (or at least possible) it takes a bigger than 40% cut of the high def market after selling so many A2s so suddenly.

But that would be weighted to A2 owners, which is to say HD DVD, not BD owners.

This is proper, adult, scientific discussion.

Steve W

Walmart is presently a very small part of HD sales. It is growing, but it is still very small.

Neo1965
11-23-07, 01:05 PM
You see, that's a good point. We can discuss it like adults.

Wal-Mart are 40% of the SD DVD market.

It's likely (or at least possible) it takes a bigger than 40% cut of the high def market after selling so many A2s so suddenly.

But that would be weighted to A2 owners, which is to say HD DVD, not BD owners.

This is proper, adult, scientific discussion.

Steve W

But then, they also gave away 10 BDs for that ps3 secret sale today, and that's not counted either, meaning that missing data is missing data, just like any polling, there is mathematical certainty, and what is outside of mathematical certainty, and in extreme cases, there is hope, faith, religion, and us sitting around typing up stuff, having fun while other good people are apparently off somewhere buying good toys.

Edit: apparently the HMM staff might have taken off to do their own black friday stuff, nothing's on the weblink that we normally use to get the actual magazine. wonder if anyone is going to go back before monday to punch in the stuff to copy it over. Don't they know how important those numbers are to us? ;)

How can we get a moment's rest with this uncertainty hanging over us? :)

RussTC3
11-23-07, 01:06 PM
66/34 is still very good. Plus, a weak movie (Shrek the Third) still outperformed Ocean's 13, which was released on both formats.

Also, Blu-ray has Spider-Man 3, Spider-Man Trilogy boxset, Ratatouille, Cars and the Pixar Collection.

When working with such low numbers overall, these are solid for HD DVD.

Winn
11-23-07, 01:09 PM
Doesn't Neilsen do an estimate for Walmart numbers?

No, HMM will do an estimate for them in their hard numbers. The percentages are straight from Nielsen.

Wet1
11-23-07, 01:35 PM
Ouch, 66:34 is really going to put a dent in my average. :(

Good week for BR! :)

spacejamz
11-23-07, 02:05 PM
66:34

[\Mr. Burns] Excellllent.....

JBlacklow
11-23-07, 02:11 PM
66/34 is still very good. Plus, a weak movie (Shrek the Third) still outperformed Ocean's 13, which was released on both formats.Since when does the #2 movie of the year count as "weak"?
Also, Blu-ray has Spider-Man 3, Spider-Man Trilogy boxset, Ratatouille, Cars and the Pixar Collection.

When working with such low numbers overall, these are solid for HD DVD.All those titles are in their second or third weeks of release against day-and-date #2 earner of the year. Shrek should have kept "the Rat movie" at 10-15% like Transformers did with the competition. Instead, it sold less than twice as much, How such a poor showing with the HD DVD version of one of the best-selling DVDs of the year against counts as good for the format escapes me.

RussTC3
11-23-07, 02:13 PM
When I said weak, I was referring to the quality of the movie.

Shrek the Third on DVD sold less than the Ratatouille DVD, didn't it? I'm not sure why it would surprise someone that the high-def version did the same in relation to the high-def version of Ratatouille.

aaronwt
11-23-07, 02:16 PM
I thought the Shrek 3 DVD sold more than the Ratatouille DVD when comparing the first weeks?

According to this Ratatouille sold 3,857,150 DVDS it's first week. http://the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/weekly/thisweek.php

This article talks about Shrek the Third first week sales putting it in the top 10 2007 DVD sales.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ia0d5d5dafa5db17014323e907247257b

RDarrylR
11-23-07, 02:16 PM
Shrek the Third on DVD sold less than the Ratatouille DVD, didn't it? I'm not sure why it would surprise someone that the high-def version did the same in relation to the high-def version of Ratatouille.

Especially with the smaller player base for HD-DVD.

george king
11-23-07, 02:18 PM
Jblackow,

Since when does the #2 movie of the year count as "weak"?

It is the same argument that BD supporters made for the relatively poor sales of Spidey 3 after the numbers came out. The top grossing movie of the year didnt break any HDM records, and didnt really come close.

RussTC3
11-23-07, 02:28 PM
I'm not sure what the expectations for Shrek the Third were on HD DVD, but considering that the film itself wasn't all that good and HDM is still a niche format, I'm actually somewhat happy that early consumers aren't purchasing movies "just because" they look and sound great.

Though HD DVD and Blu-ray movies look and sound great, they don't improve upon the "quality" of the movie. :)

PrinceLH
11-23-07, 02:46 PM
Another week in the books and another week for Blu. I thought that Shrek the 3rd would have pull off better numbers. Granted, Blu had more BOGO sales, but many of those titles were already discounted weeks ago, for BOGO's during Transformers week. I wonder how the Paramount $19.99 sale went this week? I wonder how many of the last Blu titles did against the HD DVD titles, considering that there was more HD DVD stock available.

aluni2230
11-23-07, 03:07 PM
Another week in the books and another week for Blu. I thought that Shrek the 3rd would have pull off better numbers. Granted, Blu had more BOGO sales, but many of those titles were already discounted weeks ago, for BOGO's during Transformers week. I wonder how the Paramount $19.99 sale went this week? I wonder how many of the last Blu titles did against the HD DVD titles, considering that there was more HD DVD stock available.
The larger trend here is that HD DVD continues to improve their market share over BD Quarter upon Quarter. For now it appears that the 2:1 sales advantage mantra is all but a distant memory. Looks like BOGO is what will keep BD alive until another studio realignment takes place!

Why, on this very forum we had BD supporters claiming how BD would take a 80:20 and better sales advantage based on the strong day date blockbuster releases. Now, it's one weekly excuse after another. The fact is that HD DVD never needs to beat BD for any week to be viable. Studios know what is going on with the BOGO and all.

Toshibas low cost player strategy is paying off. Whether you like it or not. Resorting to BOGO is not what studios want to do, especially Warner. So read into this for what it is worth :)

phansson
11-23-07, 03:17 PM
IMHO, none of the HDM "big hits" have done great this year. I expected more out of Spidey III, Transformers, Shrek and about 10 other titles.

I guess I will not be expecting big numbers from Borne Ultimatum or Pirates III either.

Rich Peterson
11-23-07, 03:19 PM
For now it appears that the 2:1 sales advantage mantra is all but a distant memory.
Interesting conclusion you are drawing at this point in time given that the last two weeks have been essentially 2:1.

DB2
11-23-07, 03:23 PM
The larger trend here is that HD DVD continues to improve their market share over BD Quarter upon Quarter. For now it appears that the 2:1 sales advantage mantra is all but a distant memory. Looks like BOGO is what will keep BD alive until another studio realignment takes place!

Don't get dizzy doing all of that spinning ;)

Looks like neither Ratatouille nor Shrek knocked the cover off of the ball for their respective formats. Maybe the earlier post about animation titles not pulling a lot of weight is true.

You know what I read into this weeks numbers? BD outsold HDDVD 66:34.

Everdog
11-23-07, 03:24 PM
Interesting conclusion you are drawing at this point in time given that the last two weeks have been essentially 2:1.

Technically both weeks were BELOW 2:1 (67:33 when rounded).

Seriously though I do not think this thread is for this kind of talk. There are other forums for that (you know what they are). We are here to predict.

briankmonkey
11-23-07, 03:35 PM
Very impressive week for blu-ray! I'm wondering if 90k HD DVD players were really sold as claimed or perhaps many were bought by people as secondary HD DVD players. Also possible is more than enough new blu-ray customers to offset those sales and/or players bought the HD DVD with freebies but haven't purchased much new content beyond the freebies.

aaronwt
11-23-07, 03:45 PM
Very impressive week for blu-ray! I'm wondering if 90k HD DVD players were really sold as claimed or perhaps many were bought by people as secondary HD DVD players. Also possible is more than enough new blu-ray customers to offset those sales and/or players bought the HD DVD with freebies but haven't purchased much new content beyond the freebies.

Many of thsoe were sold at Walmart which doesn't count in the Stats. The same for HD media sold at Walmart. Considering Walmarts accounts for 40% of all DVDs sold in the US, the sales potential is huge.
I was way off on my guess for this week.

Winn
11-23-07, 03:47 PM
Since HMM is skipping a week and Dave is, in all liklihood, getting his numbers from the exact same source, I will be using Dave's numbers this week.

New thread up shortly.

briankmonkey
11-23-07, 03:49 PM
Many of thsoe were sold at Walmart which doesn't count in the Stats. The same for HD media sold at Walmart. Considering Walmarts accounts for 40% of all DVDs sold in the US, the sales potential is huge.
I was way off on my guess for this week.

I'm aware that they don't count HD DVD or blu-ray from Walmart. It's been known for a long time what numbers Nielsen includes and dwhat they don't.

All of my freebies on the A3's for example were from Best Buy. BB is the #1 HDM source from what I've read and people who've purchased at Walmart aren't limited to Walmart for future purposes, just as I don't buy titles at BB normally. Plus Circuit City, Fry's, Sears, etc were all selling heavily discounted HD DVD players as well. Blu-ray's massive black Friday numbers for blu-ray aren't going to be included either for next weeks.

Winn
11-23-07, 03:54 PM
Nielsen contest results for 11/23/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 66:34

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
bolaar 66:34 1 0.00
sunstar 67:33 1 1.00
elikjom 65:35 1 1.00
jwdav 68:32 1 2.00
JuLx64 64:36 1 2.00
venk 72:28 3 2.33
ack_bk 68:32 8 2.88
Bill0711 65:35 7 3.00
MRMOTA 69:31 1 3.00
Wet1 57:43 13 3.08
MASrules 66:34 16 3.13
JeffY 60:40 14 3.36
Rooper 59:41 8 3.38
huntaar 66:34 11 3.45
Everdog 59:41 16 3.50
MichaelHDDVD 60:40 16 3.56
Neo1965 59:41 16 3.56
Grubert 58:42 14 3.64
gand41f 58:42 15 3.73
stefanpaulmayer 59:41 14 3.79
lomax 65:35 16 3.81
MattHD 62:38 6 3.83
theflux 58:42 16 3.88
extra_hc 60:40 15 3.93
todrigo 65:35 14 3.93
Azumi 61:39 16 3.94
JAC6 63:37 10 4.00
shamus 64:36 15 4.07
Will d s 60:40 12 4.08
badandy642 62:38 11 4.09
Reylas 65:35 16 4.13
Blu-Devil 60:40 15 4.20
user friendly 63:37 9 4.22
Woodshed 61:39 9 4.22
iontyre 63:37 13 4.23
manikin 61:39 16 4.25
darinp2 60:40 16 4.25
trondmm 56:44 12 4.25
Raxel 59:41 15 4.27
plazman 65:35 10 4.30
Sketcha 59:41 16 4.31
fitprod 68:32 15 4.33
LynxFX 66:34 16 4.44
online 58:42 16 4.44
GeorgeLV 62:38 15 4.47
tgraphics 60:40 8 4.50
oregoncalfroper 57:43 8 4.50
TPigeon2006 54:46 16 4.56
Vov76 59:41 12 4.58
dumbswede 58:42 10 4.60
aaronwt 56:44 16 4.63
Evan702 62:38 6 4.67
boomster 62:38 12 4.75
Noggin1980 61:39 12 4.75
bato 62:38 4 4.75
Baccusboy 64:36 13 4.77
UxiSXRD 64:36 16 4.81
Icemage 58:42 16 4.81
hammie34 55:45 16 4.81
spacejamz 66:34 15 4.87
habscolts 59:41 8 4.88
geko29 54:46 16 5.00
chirpie 61:39 12 5.00
Jocky Wilson 60:40 6 5.00
Technicolor 51:49 5 5.00
audiomixer 65:35 4 5.00
studiotan 65:35 4 5.00
allargon 54:46 15 5.07
RDarrylR 60:40 9 5.11
soremekun 63:37 15 5.13
donricouga 62:38 15 5.13
PrinceLH 62:38 7 5.14
ixalon 61:39 6 5.17
phansson 65:35 11 5.18
CochiseGuy 55:45 11 5.18
Kemet 62:38 9 5.22
ICBM99 59:41 14 5.36
neillkirn 61:39 11 5.36
mswoods1 56:44 11 5.36
digicam95 55:45 11 5.36
crimsona 65:35 15 5.40
Aresca 68:32 9 5.44
Rich Peterson 65:35 2 5.50
Ronin_R6 52:48 13 5.54
eightninesuited 62:38 16 5.63
Jonto81 60:40 12 5.67
Leviathin25 61:39 9 5.67
Greg Kettell 60:40 6 5.67
jhinesjr 58:42 7 5.71
Optica 66:34 4 5.75
wipron 53:47 10 5.90
GmanAVS 53:47 15 5.93
ToddUGA 62:38 9 6.00
Chris_TC 56:44 8 6.00
darwin316 60:40 3 6.00
gdeep 60:40 1 6.00
xue891 60:40 1 6.00
ddelrio 51:49 6 6.17
Jagt Mirage 59:41 5 6.20
Jim Morrison 60:40 14 6.21
george king 55:45 9 6.22
caesartheboxer 53:47 10 6.40
JoeFigueiredo 59:41 5 6.40
Lbarber 59:41 7 6.43
thebland 68:32 8 6.50
TheCuze 58:42 2 6.50
OggideM 56:44 2 6.50
rdjam 58:42 15 6.53
GJN 60:40 7 6.57
edgebsl 63:37 7 6.86
dobyblue 71:29 9 6.89
Kable 55:45 9 6.89
alfbinet 52:48 7 7.00
antony30bc 67:33 2 7.00
dildatonr 59:41 1 7.00
Winn 65:35 16 7.13
Brian Hampton 63:37 8 7.13
PopcornReady 55:45 9 7.22
user4avsforum 50:50 12 7.25
SGRSBSKIER 62:38 12 7.50
ts.enigma 67:33 6 7.50
Clark Burk 61:39 5 7.60
jkwest 67:33 14 7.71
Numanoid101 60:40 7 7.71
CRFTony 68:32 11 7.73
frizshizzle 66:34 4 7.75
rcutlass70 65:35 5 7.80
m1cst4rr 58:42 5 7.80
briankmonkey 53:47 16 7.94
ricwhite 64:36 2 8.00
vancamp 58:42 1 8.00
yampan 52:48 7 8.14
khwiggins2 50:50 7 8.14
splinters 62:38 2 8.50
xradman 60:40 10 8.70
dmcfan 56:44 5 8.80
raaj 55:45 8 8.88
Kosty 58:42 16 9.00
Robert Spalding 57:43 8 9.00
SquirrelPhister 58:42 7 9.00
bigdaveman 49:51 8 9.13
surfdude12 67:33 2 9.50
chipvideo 60:40 5 9.60
SamwisetheBrave 56:44 3 9.67
dc_pilgrim 58:42 5 9.80
bori 53:47 5 9.80
tonngo0 59:41 8 9.88
krylonone 49:51 11 10.00
hassoon 62:38 2 10.00
Calamus 58:42 2 10.00
bobgpsr 56:44 1 10.00
DanTou 50:50 7 10.14
ataxic_dentist 60:40 5 10.20
Ethos99 60:40 4 10.50
30XS955 User 60:40 2 10.50
Husso 60:40 2 10.50
Bailey151 58:42 2 10.50
spankstheclown 52:48 2 10.50
kkozma 40:60 10 10.90
anttimonty 53:47 5 11.00
badboi 71:29 2 11.00
basano 55:45 1 11.00
Elwar 63:37 4 11.50
ehomer 69:31 2 11.50
Steve Schauer 54:46 1 12.00
Xylon 50:50 4 12.25
randori 53:47 1 13.00
roadmanc 53:47 1 13.00
Psound 50:50 1 16.00
Customgamer1 49:51 3 16.33
Andy_Dandy 47:53 7 16.86
pythagoras 49:51 5 17.60
Von-Bek 47:53 1 19.00
gljvd 46:54 1 20.00
Shmack 30:70 15 20.13
zikdaman 45:55 1 21.00
vurbano 20:80 1 46.00


Perfect Picks:

frizshizzle
Optica
spacejamz
LynxFX
huntaar
MASrules
bolaar

As always, congrats to all.

Pecker
11-23-07, 04:17 PM
Erm...as far as I can tell, from my own link and the link at HMM's site, we've no official confirmation of this yet.

Anyone?

Link?

Steve W

aaronwt
11-23-07, 04:19 PM
David Vaughn was right last week with his info.

Jarod M
11-23-07, 04:21 PM
IMHO, none of the HDM "big hits" have done great this year. I expected more out of Spidey III, Transformers, Shrek and about 10 other titles.

I guess I will not be expecting big numbers from Borne Ultimatum or Pirates III either.
The studios can't be happy with these numbers. I would go so far as to say that these numbers are dreadful, and prove that 300 was nothing but an anomaly caused by the large percentage of PS3 and addon owners. I expect Pirates III will be the biggest individual seller this quarter (though Transformers might be close), not because people are very enthused about it, but because people want to complete their trilogy collection (lots of people got the first two in the BOGO sales), and also it doesn't have to compete with a trilogy collection like Spiderman 3 did.

Rooper
11-23-07, 04:22 PM
I have to admit I have no idea what's going on anymore. I can't understand how Blu-Rays numbers went up after last week. HD-DVD had a major exclusive release (Shrek III) that should top the sales list. Am I to believe that they sold more this week, even though all their major release are a week older (and thus should have sold less) and HD DVD should have upped their sales from last week with a major exclusive (Shrek 3). The logic flies out the window with these numbers.

Pecker
11-23-07, 04:25 PM
David Vaughn was right last week with his info.

Yes, and I'm sure he's sound.

Sorry, I mean I'm sure he's a 'stand up guy'.

I picked the Grand National winner in 1981 - I strongly suggest you don't use the same logic and come to me for racing tips, because you'll go home poor.

He's probably right.

But let's wait and see before proclaiming a 'winner' for the week, is all I'm suggesting.

You know.

Like Florida.

Steve W

gand41f
11-23-07, 04:27 PM
I'm going to try something new, a completely serious prediction.
(skip)
I'll call Shrek at about 45k copies on HD DVD. I'd put the Rat near that either way.

Now, adding the IDHaC factor, my math gives me a repeat, 65:35.
Wow. Maybe you should be contesting, not counting. ;)

By the way, it seems to me that this is the week we (as a group) were the furthest from the actual numbers, in terms of units of standard deviation off from the mean. Is that right?

enjoy
gandalf :o

theflux
11-23-07, 04:36 PM
I trust Dave Vaugn after his correct call last week, and let me just say: DARNIT.

Off by 8 this week.

Last week the Rat let me down, and this week it was Shrek 3. If those numbers are true, even the excuse of an Amazon BOGO isn't enough. Shrek 3 must have sold pathetically. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I'd be happy to never see that movie again, and honestly regretted every second I spent in the theater watching it. I wonder how low the sales would have been if it wasn't regarded highly as a demo disk.

Jarod M
11-23-07, 04:40 PM
I have to admit I have no idea what's going on anymore. I can't understand how Blu-Rays numbers went up after last week. HD-DVD had a major exclusive release (Shrek III) that should top the sales list. Am I to believe that they sold more this week, even though all their major release are a week older (and thus should have sold less) and HD DVD should have upped their sales from last week with a major exclusive (Shrek 3). The logic flies out the window with these numbers.
It has been said that Nielsen's accuracy is very suspect when sales aren't very large. Whether that is true or not, I don't know, but these last two weeks' results are a good indication that the reliability of Nielsen should be viewed with some skepticism.

RDarrylR
11-23-07, 04:42 PM
It has been said that Nielsen's accuracy is very suspect when sales aren't very large. Whether that is true or not, I don't know, but these last two weeks' results are a good indication that the reliability of Nielsen should be viewed with some skepticism.

Why is that? Do you think Blu-ray actually should have had a ratio closer to 70:30 or 75:25 this week and last?

Jarod M
11-23-07, 04:43 PM
I trust Dave Vaugn after his correct call last week, and let me just say: DARNIT.

Off by 8 this week.

Last week the Rat let me down, and this week it was Shrek 3. If those numbers are true, even the excuse of an Amazon BOGO isn't enough. Shrek 3 must have sold pathetically. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I'd be happy to never see that movie again, and honestly regretted every second I spent in the theater watching it. I wonder how low the sales would have been if it wasn't regarded highly as a demo disk.
I knew one owner who bought the DVD of Shrek 3 instead, because it was cheaper and his kid would be watching it over and over again. I would bet that this was the situation for a lot of parents who are HD DVD owners. The same thing could be said about all animation on high def I guess, and that might be one reason why animation doesn't seem to be doing very well.

Jarod M
11-23-07, 04:50 PM
Why is that? Do you think Blu-ray actually should have had a ratio closer to 70:30 or 75:25 this week and last?
I think most everyone expected BD to do much better on the Pixar week, and most everyone expected HD DVD to do better for the Shrek week when compared to the previous week. The actual results are puzzling to say the least.
Also, we've seen some strange numbers where one side wins the top ten handily, but then the other side handily wins the numbers outside the top ten for the same week.

Montezuma58
11-23-07, 04:52 PM
I knew one owner who bought the DVD of Shrek 3 instead, because it was cheaper and his kid would be watching it over and over again. I would bet that this was the situation for a lot of parents who are HD DVD owners. The same thing could be said about all animation on high def I guess, and that might be one reason why animation doesn't seem to be doing very well.
I think they should make all of the stuff that heavily appeals to small children combos or twins. I purchased the SD version of Shrek 3 instead of the HD DVD simply because my son will want to watch it constantly and on various TV's throughout the house. I would have got the HD version if it was a combo. I have the combo for Happy Feet and that has worked out pretty good for my family.

Rich Peterson
11-23-07, 05:53 PM
I have to admit I have no idea what's going on anymore. I can't understand how Blu-Rays numbers went up after last week.
I have a couple theories.

First, the evidence seems to show a slight delay in the reporting for sales of new releases. In other words, the first week of a new release the numbers reported by Nielsen are lower than we expect and the second week they are higher. It's as if some of those first week's sales don't get counted the first week. Maybe some companies don't get all their weekend sales reported on time? Just a guess, though.

Secondly, as we approach the holiday selling season, I think the impact of new releases on the sales ratios will be reduced with the increased overall volume of software sales. There are more and more other titles being bought on both sides so I don't think we can just look at the release schedule only anymore, especially with the many pricing specials being offered.

Thirdly, I think many are over-rating the impact that the recent upturn in HD DVD player sales is having on the Nielsens. If you consider that HD DVD increased their installed base by maybe 30% in the last month, what impact is that really going to have on the sales? Maybe a 5% shift in the ratios max? I think those expecting a huge impact aren't being very realistic. BD players are still selling and PS3s are still selling much faster than HD DVD players. Now, if HD DVD ran some specials, then I think you would see a big impact.

Just some speculation.

jpco
11-23-07, 05:59 PM
Last week the Rat let me down, and this week it was Shrek 3. If those numbers are true, even the excuse of an Amazon BOGO isn't enough. Shrek 3 must have sold pathetically. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I'd be happy to never see that movie again, and honestly regretted every second I spent in the theater watching it. I wonder how low the sales would have been if it wasn't regarded highly as a demo disk.

Then what does that say for Shrek III outselling the combined total of Oceans 13. Basically, sales were just pathetic.

PopcornReady
11-23-07, 06:09 PM
It's possible there will be more sales volume this week. Just a hunch. That might have caused a temporary dip in sales last week as everyone was preparing for tomorrow.

user4avsforum
11-23-07, 06:17 PM
Nielsen contest results for 11/23/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 66:34


Did anyone get the detailed numbers? I cannot seem to get the numbers from HMM.

Dave Vaughn
11-23-07, 06:20 PM
The BOGO sales have had a big impact on catalog titles more than anything else. Inventory that wasn't moving actually moves with the BOGO sales. One consistency that is nice to see is that overall sales each week (combined) have been quite constant (although I can't reveal the actual total), so at least the movies on both formats are selling better. It should still be an interesting end of the year though to see if the numbers change at all.

On a side note, the since inception numbers are 60:40, which is a 3:2 advantage, not a 2:1 advantage. (Just a pet peeve of mine)

RROSEN
11-23-07, 06:21 PM
Taking a basic customer demographic shot in the dark, isn't it possible that the PS3 BR folks that make up like what, 80% plus of the install base simply doesn't have cars and rat on their hot buy list?

Also I think the "I already have it on DVD (Cars) and the "This needs to work in the playroom/bedroom" so what does it matter how good it looks if I cant play it where the audience is?

This goes for HD DVD as well, but they try and mitigate it with combo's which pretty much have half hating and half liking it so not exactly a home run their either.

Not a format argument, but simple an observation based on the install base.

Cheers

dad1153
11-23-07, 06:58 PM
IMHO, none of the HDM "big hits" have done great this year. I expected more out of Spidey III, Transformers, Shrek and about 10 other titles.

I guess I will not be expecting big numbers from Borne Ultimatum or Pirates III either.

I disagree. "Ultimatum" and "Pirates 3" will be exclusive day-and-date releases without a previous DVD release to take away any potential HDM sales. Both series have two widely popular and best-selling prequels in their respective formats that owners will want to complete for the trilogy. "Ultimatum" has quality behind it (its the best-reviewed and most liked in general of this year's crop of blockbuster "3"quels) while "Pirates III" has its rollercoaster spectacle, the reputation of its Blu-ray prequels as stellar PQ/AQ showcases and box office mojo (which didn't help much "Transformers" and the other blockbuster "3"quels). With their positives plus the added number of players, PS3/XBox 360 add-ons and new users in the weeks leading up to their release dates I can't help but predict stellar numbers for "Ultimatum" and "Pirates III." The only wild card is whether "Ultimatum's" Combo price will prevent HD-DVD folks used to lower prices for new releases from getting it on release week, hoping it gets swept into the Free Movies one can pick-up with the new players.

theflux
11-23-07, 07:51 PM
Then what does that say for Shrek III outselling the combined total of Oceans 13. Basically, sales were just pathetic.

Those were also pathetic, but comparatively Shrek 3 had a much larger marketting budget and was generally expected to sell better.

theflux
11-23-07, 07:53 PM
On a side note, the since inception numbers are 60:40, which is a 3:2 advantage, not a 2:1 advantage. (Just a pet peeve of mine)

I think most people are referencing YTD when they mention the 2:1, though I do realize it isn't actually 2:1.

Neo1965
11-23-07, 08:04 PM
I trust Dave Vaugn after his correct call last week, and let me just say: DARNIT.

Off by 8 this week.

Last week the Rat let me down, and this week it was Shrek 3. If those numbers are true, even the excuse of an Amazon BOGO isn't enough. Shrek 3 must have sold pathetically. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I'd be happy to never see that movie again, and honestly regretted every second I spent in the theater watching it. I wonder how low the sales would have been if it wasn't regarded highly as a demo disk.

I don't anyone who followed the nielsen results could have anticipated the Shrek3 numbers. I certainly didn't expect that it would do that badly, and that's after I thought I saw large interest in Rat. Both Rat and Shrek3 seemed to have not met expectations. In a sense, neither did Spidey3 and TF. We still don't have a title that outsold 300 week1. Will 300 take the #1 crown all the way to the end of 2007?

It's bizarre to think that so many movies ahead of 300 after so many months of selling players still could not match 300's sales. If I was a betting man, I think Bourne and PotC3 are the only ones left, though neither of these will outsell 300-combined even if one can beat 300-BD's week1.

fitprod
11-23-07, 08:34 PM
Then what does that say for Shrek III outselling the combined total of Oceans 13. Basically, sales were just pathetic.

You sort have to factor in that the individual Oceans 13 discs might have taken a slight hit from the box set... Much like Spider-man 3.

fitprod

a3willia
11-23-07, 09:00 PM
I knew one owner who bought the DVD of Shrek 3 instead, because it was cheaper and his kid would be watching it over and over again. I would bet that this was the situation for a lot of parents who are HD DVD owners. The same thing could be said about all animation on high def I guess, and that might be one reason why animation doesn't seem to be doing very well.

I've never actually watched any of the Shrek movies, but Shrek 3 definitely should have been a combo. I know it's supposed to be adult animation, but it's the kids who will be playing the movie over and over, so who would pay top dollar for a noncombo that's going to be handled by kids and only able to be played on the 'special dvd player' verses just buying the dvd? At the very least, the combo owner could have made a backup and let the kids use that. Paramount really killed their own sales with the lack of thought put into the practicality of an animated title. I wonder if Shrek even outsold Happy Feet?

I think we've seen enough instances now to conclude that hi def animation won't sell big until DVD is totally replaced by the next gen format(s).

Hughmc
11-23-07, 09:03 PM
..

Jarod M
11-23-07, 09:23 PM
The BOGO sales have had a big impact on catalog titles more than anything else. Inventory that wasn't moving actually moves with the BOGO sales. One consistency that is nice to see is that overall sales each week (combined) have been quite constant (although I can't reveal the actual total), so at least the movies on both formats are selling better. It should still be an interesting end of the year though to see if the numbers change at all.
Do you see signs of significant growth from these numbers? Would any of these recent blockbuster releases have sold a lot less had they been released 6 months ago? In comparison with the numbers from earlier in the year for Casino Royale and 300, I'm just not seeing the type of sales recently that would go along with the expected increase in the number of owners of high def players. You say so yourself that BOGO sales have had a big impact-but that impact doesn't mean much if it doesn't get more people to buy players. Either the attach rate is lower than ever or very few players have been sold in the last several months.

Rooper
11-23-07, 09:27 PM
I've never actually watched any of the Shrek movies, but Shrek 3 definitely should have been a combo. I know it's supposed to be adult animation, but it's the kids who will be playing the movie over and over, so who would pay top dollar for a noncombo that's going to be handled by kids and only able to be played on the 'special dvd player' verses just buying the dvd? At the very least, the combo owner could have made a backup and let the kids use that. Paramount really killed their own sales with the lack of thought put into the practicality of an animated title. I wonder if Shrek even outsold Happy Feet?

I think we've seen enough instances now to conclude that hi def animation won't sell big until DVD is totally replaced by the next gen format(s).

Just another pet peev of mine, but Paramount has nothing to do with Shrek 3 other then distibuting the title. Shrek 3 is a Dreamworks Animation movie, and they're an independent company that can choose to do whatever they want. Whatever policies Paramount has are irrelevant.

Dave Vaughn
11-23-07, 10:46 PM
Do you see signs of significant growth from these numbers? Would any of these recent blockbuster releases have sold a lot less had they been released 6 months ago? In comparison with the numbers from earlier in the year for Casino Royale and 300, I'm just not seeing the type of sales recently that would go along with the expected increase in the number of owners of high def players. You say so yourself that BOGO sales have had a big impact-but that impact doesn't mean much if it doesn't get more people to buy players. Either the attach rate is lower than ever or very few players have been sold in the last several months.

We're still in the infancy period of adoption, so I don't see things changing until after this holiday season or maybe even next Christmas. Having two formats is affecting adoption by wider numbers. Some want to blame one side or the other, but IMO, both sides are to blame.

Everdog
11-23-07, 10:58 PM
On a side note, the since inception numbers are 60:40, which is a 3:2 advantage, not a 2:1 advantage. (Just a pet peeve of mine)

I also think you have to look at things different after the Paramount deal. Even if the numbers before that were 2:1, it would be unfair to continue to make that claim after a change like that.

Kosty
11-23-07, 11:00 PM
The BOGO sales have had a big impact on catalog titles more than anything else. Inventory that wasn't moving actually moves with the BOGO sales. One consistency that is nice to see is that overall sales each week (combined) have been quite constant (although I can't reveal the actual total), so at least the movies on both formats are selling better. It should still be an interesting end of the year though to see if the numbers change at all.

On a side note, the since inception numbers are 60:40, which is a 3:2 advantage, not a 2:1 advantage. (Just a pet peeve of mine) Is it possible that the Shrek 3 numbers were not so much disappointing as much as the long tail of the Blu-ray BOGO added up to another Bu-ray win?

Slim GoodBooty
11-23-07, 11:14 PM
Is it possible that the Shrek 3 numbers were not so much disappointing as much as the long tail of the Blu-ray BOGO added up to another Bu-ray win?
Seems that overall sales were down. I expected Rattatoullie to do way better than 16k in it's second week. I pretty much expected double across the board.

Dave Vaughn
11-24-07, 12:09 AM
Overall sales were within 10% of last week (10% down or so), but the #1 seller didn't sell as much. It was the BOGO sale that had a major impact on sales this week.

Marwin
11-24-07, 12:11 AM
Is it possible that the Shrek 3 numbers were not so much disappointing as much as the long tail of the Blu-ray BOGO added up to another Bu-ray win?

I guess you missed the following comment:
66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

That's half the sales of Ratatouille even though Shrek 3 did better at the box office. I guess you can either look at the Shrek 3 numbers as disappointing or the Ratatouille numbers as quite good for an animation title.

Winn
11-24-07, 01:42 AM
Seems that overall sales were down. I expected Rattatoullie to do way better than 16k in it's second week. I pretty much expected double across the board.

Where are you getting that the Rat did 16k?

fulcizombie
11-24-07, 03:30 AM
I guess you missed the following comment:


That's half the sales of Ratatouille even though Shrek 3 did better at the box office. I guess you can either look at the Shrek 3 numbers as disappointing or the Ratatouille numbers as quite good for an animation title.
How about if i take both of these numbers as disappointing.

This holiday season is generally dreadfull for HDM so far. We have had a new cheaper ps3, tons of deals with very cheap toshiba HDDVD players, a ton of BOGOs (mostly from blu ray, but also many free movies being given away with HDDVD players) and a shitload of releases ranging from megablockbusters (SM3, Transformers) to important catalogue releases for every taste (from the Kubrick movies to the the spider man boxset). In spite of all that i don't see any significant growth for high-def media and generally pretty pathetic sales for most (if not all) releases.

One look at the laughable Ocean's 13 sales (a pretty decent hit at the BO and a day and date release on both formats) is enough.

hd nOOb
11-24-07, 04:32 AM
Does any one have a link to the numbers?

oliverjg
11-24-07, 09:07 AM
We're still in the infancy period of adoption, so I don't see things changing until after this holiday season or maybe even next Christmas. Having two formats is affecting adoption by wider numbers. Some want to blame one side or the other, but IMO, both sides are to blame.

if you have any contacts at paramount/dw can you ask them why shrek 3 wasn't a combo disc?

in the case of disney/pixar we know a lot of kids have ps3 to play a movie on. i see them with their parents in the stores poking through the bd titles.

in the case of hd dvd. there really isn't any way for most kids to play hd dvd. a great advantage of hd dvd is to provide dvd and hd dvd on the same disk so that kids can rewatch the movie whenever they want on their own playback devices in cars and in their rooms.

imo the shrek 3 release being non-combo was really stupid due to giving parents basically no choice but to either buy both versions or just settle for the sd version.

bunkaroo
11-24-07, 09:43 AM
Keep in mind Paramount has yet to release a theatrical film as a combo.

The Star Trek set is the first time they've done the combo, and my guess is they did it because they didn't want a DVD only set competing with the HD DVD set.

If this had been WB or Universal, then there would be very good reason to question the decision. But with Paramount there was no reason to think it would be a combo based on their past HD DVD history.

PopcornReady
11-24-07, 09:50 AM
We're still in the infancy period of adoption, so I don't see things changing until after this holiday season or maybe even next Christmas. Having two formats is affecting adoption by wider numbers. Some want to blame one side or the other, but IMO, both sides are to blame.

I've never been comfortable with that conclusion (which I bolded in the quote above) which has, nonetheless, been "confirmed" by consumer polling research.

It's just a too glib and easy viewpoint; it doesn't "feel" right. What we do know is consumers love HDTV and, once they buy one, they'll never give it back. It makes no sense to me that if you then offer them a relatively risk-free proposition -- a hidef player at impulse buy prices (call it $200 or less) which delivers wonderful hidef images and replaces their aging DVD player and upgrades it at the same time ... why would most people fold their arms and say, "Gee, I'm confused. This war thing. I'm not buying until someone figures this thing out.".

Given the consensus that 66:34 is correct for this week, I admit I'm surprised as that is the average for the entire year; fits the ballyhooed 2:1 mantra; and doesn't seem to reflect the top sellers for HD DVD this week. But those are the facts and that's that. On to next week!

Lee Stewart
11-24-07, 09:59 AM
I've never been comfortable with that conclusion (which I bolded in the quote above) which has, nonetheless, been "confirmed" by consumer polling research.

It's just a too glib and easy viewpoint; it doesn't "feel" right. What we do know is consumers love HDTV and, once they buy one, they'll never give it back. It makes no sense to me that if you then offer them a relatively risk-free proposition -- a hidef player at impulse buy prices (call it $200 or less) which delivers wonderful hidef images and replaces their aging DVD player and upgrades it at the same time ... why would most people fold their arms and say, "Gee, I'm confused. This war thing. I'm not buying until someone figures this thing out.".

Given the consensus that 66:34 is correct for this week, I admit I'm surprised as that is the average for the entire year; fits the ballyhooed 2:1 mantra; and doesn't seem to reflect the top sellers for HD DVD this. But those are the facts and that's that. On to next week!

RED: - We know that consumers LOVE the "aspects" of their HDTV:

1. It hangs on the wall - GREAT WAF!
2. George Jetson had one in the 1960's
3. Who wants a 30" deep "monster sized box" in their living room to watch programming on?

They love the FORM of HDTV - but not HD itself. Not according to NUMEROUS studies with the latest coming from Nielsen themselves . . . 11% of HDTV owners are watching HD (seems low to me - about 18% is what others are saying) on their HDTV.

And - like always - we get ratios with no actual sales data becuase then everyone would call HDM - the new story of The Emporer's New Clothes:(

oliverjg
11-24-07, 10:04 AM
Keep in mind Paramount has yet to release a theatrical film as a combo.

The Star Trek set is the first time they've done the combo, and my guess is they did it because they didn't want a DVD only set competing with the HD DVD set.

If this had been WB or Universal, then there would be very good reason to question the decision. But with Paramount there was no reason to think it would be a combo based on their past HD DVD history.

imo they went to combos with trek and could have also done so with shrek. :) blindly staying the course to be consistent with their past theatrical releases isn't a justification for a major mistake. imo the poor sales for shrek on hd dvd is due to people buying the sd version instead due to it being cheaper, and playing on the kids hardware. if you bought a $99 hd dvd player would you buy 2 copies of shrek 3?

Dave Vaughn
11-24-07, 11:24 AM
I think not having Shrek III as a combo was a mistake as well. When I polled a contact, he said that Paramount doesn't really believe in them, which is why they didn't use them. Trek is "testing the waters" for them.

I know in my house that the HD DVD goes in the theater and the DVD that I was sent goes in the kids playroom.

oliverjg
11-24-07, 11:52 AM
I think not having Shrek III as a combo was a mistake as well. When I polled a contact, he said that Paramount doesn't really believe in them, which is why they didn't use them. Trek is "testing the waters" for them.

I know in my house that the HD DVD goes in the theater and the DVD that I was sent goes in the kids playroom.

thanks for the response dave. :)

just curious.... before hdm existed did you get two copies of kids movies and put one in the kids room or did you just move the kids movies to the kids room after you watched it?

phansson
11-24-07, 12:06 PM
Dave,

Am I missing something? Is the Star Trek HD DVD/combo being released a big deal? I thought that all of the original shows were out on dvd.

oliverjg
11-24-07, 12:10 PM
Dave,

Am I missing something? Is the Star Trek HD DVD/combo being released a big deal? I thought that all of the original shows were out on dvd.

the dvd side of the hd dvd tos set is cleaned/restored/remastered with newly recorded audio and new updated effects.

the old dvd-only release is the unrestored version.

Dave Vaughn
11-24-07, 12:14 PM
thanks for the response dave. :)

just curious.... before hdm existed did you get two copies of kids movies and put one in the kids room or did you just move the kids movies to the kids room after you watched it?

I would just get one copy and then the kids would own it after the review. They have the time to watch a movie more than once, that is a luxury I don't get very often :(

Dave Vaughn
11-24-07, 12:16 PM
Dave,

Am I missing something? Is the Star Trek HD DVD/combo being released a big deal? I thought that all of the original shows were out on dvd.

I think it is a big deal, just from the standpoint that for the first time, the only way you can buy the DVD set, is to purchase the HD DVD at the same time. Frankly, if the HD DVD side wanted to win this thing, that should have been their plan from the start on day and date releases by only having the combo format available (no DVD version).

oliverjg
11-24-07, 12:21 PM
I would just get one copy and then the kids would own it after the review. They have the time to watch a movie more than once, that is a luxury I don't get very often :(

imo that is normal family viewing of kids content. buying 2 copies isn't normal and in this case sd dvd beats hdm-only releases hands down. it isn't the same market as movies targeted at adults... which end up staying in the adult viewing areas.

phansson
11-24-07, 12:31 PM
I think it is a big deal, just from the standpoint that for the first time, the only way you can buy the DVD set, is to purchase the HD DVD at the same time. Frankly, if the HD DVD side wanted to win this thing, that should have been their plan from the start on day and date releases by only having the combo format available (no DVD version).

All of those episodes have been available on SD DVD for quite some time though, correct? Why the re-buy?

oliverjg
11-24-07, 12:54 PM
All of those episodes have been available on SD DVD for quite some time though, correct? Why the re-buy?

this content has NOT been released in this form on dvd before.

if you are not an av nut but you are a trekkie and don't care to buy an hd dvd player. you can buy the trek set and see the new effects.

you can also give the set to a known trekkie as a gift regardless if they have an hd dvd player or not.

being interested in the hd restoration, i also flip the disk and watch some of the sd and also the old sd versions.

if you decide to get an hd player later on then you can rematch with improved pq.

for some people the main point of interrest is the new effects... or just giving the set as a gift and you don't need hd for that.

Big J
11-24-07, 01:09 PM
All of those episodes have been available on SD DVD for quite some time though, correct? Why the re-buy?

This version, which has been completely restored, and has new FX replacing the older outdated FX, has never been available before. it is ONLY available as this combo. There is NO other way to buy it.
J

GizmoDVD
11-24-07, 01:41 PM
This version, which has been completely restored, and has new FX replacing the older outdated FX, has never been available before. it is ONLY available as this combo. There is NO other way to buy it.
J

Wow...had NO idea. I had also assumed this was released several years ago (not a Trek fan). So you have to buy the HD DVD set to ever own the DVD set...interesting.

Sketcha
11-24-07, 02:05 PM
Dang!

My respectable average is eroding away.

Lee Stewart
11-24-07, 02:25 PM
Dang!

My respectable average is eroding away.

For YOU Sketcha . . . and ONLY for you.. . . you can do no wrong!

Cause you are a brand new father! . . . :D

Congrats again - have two of my own. If they had a 3rd sex - I would have 3 instead of 2;)

Innerloop
11-24-07, 05:42 PM
For YOU Sketcha . . . and ONLY for you.. . . you can do no wrong!

Cause you are a brand new father! . . . :D

Congrats again - have two of my own. If they had a 3rd sex - I would have 3 instead of 2;)

Well, there's one example of a format war that resulted in the co-existence of both formats :)

Lee Stewart
11-24-07, 05:58 PM
Well, there's one example of a format war that resulted in the co-existence of both formats :)

Hehehe . . .

Ahhhh . . come again? 2 years apart - first boy then girl:D

There is a reason why they live 2000 miles apart.;)

rdjam
11-24-07, 07:15 PM
Is the prediction thread up for the 30th yet?

Judging from DVD empire and Amazon trackers, I'd say the first HD DVD win on Nielsen for the year might be here.

49:51 BD:HD

Winn
11-24-07, 07:22 PM
Is the prediction thread up for the 30th yet?

Judging from DVD empire and Amazon trackers, I'd say the first HD DVD win on Nielsen for the year might be here.

49:51 BD:HD

Is DVD Empire updating again? And, yes the other thread is open.

theflux
11-24-07, 07:49 PM
I think it is a big deal, just from the standpoint that for the first time, the only way you can buy the DVD set, is to purchase the HD DVD at the same time. Frankly, if the HD DVD side wanted to win this thing, that should have been their plan from the start on day and date releases by only having the combo format available (no DVD version).

The problem there is that they would have to make a hard choice. They could either price the HD DVD combo as a premium product (like Star Trek), or basically give the HD DVD side away "free" and charge the same price as competitors DVDs. DVD sales are already slumping, it isn't too surprising that they wouldn't want to increase their losses by including HD DVD, or decrease sales further by increasing the price.

Dave Vaughn
11-24-07, 08:33 PM
When you look at actual street pricing for this set, it isn't "that much" more than the sets sold for a few years ago. I thought those went for around $120 each, right? I agree that they are more expensive now, but they are new and improved ;)

Lee Stewart
11-24-07, 09:21 PM
I will be very curious about next weeks Nielsen because i took advantage of the Amazon A3 sale - and when they sent me the confirming emails (2) - one was the player - with a hit to the Amex card - and the other - the 3 free movies - was another hit to the Amex card. Both totaled the price as advertised.

Nielsen rule - money has to change hands to be counted as a sale.

Sketcha
11-24-07, 09:45 PM
For YOU Sketcha . . . and ONLY for you.. . . you can do no wrong!

Cause you are a brand new father! . . . :D

Congrats again - have two of my own. If they had a 3rd sex - I would have 3 instead of 2;)
Thanks Lee

Rich Peterson
11-26-07, 11:18 AM
This week's HMM magazine is finally up now.

Week: 66:34
YTD: 65:35
SI: 61:39

surfdude12
11-26-07, 11:25 AM
I think it is a big deal, just from the standpoint that for the first time, the only way you can buy the DVD set, is to purchase the HD DVD at the same time. Frankly, if the HD DVD side wanted to win this thing, that should have been their plan from the start on day and date releases by only having the combo format available (no DVD version).

hmm..so in essence that would force consumers who can't afford HD DVD to buy a HD DVD disc?? aren't you concerned about the obvious (and inevitable) consumer backlash?? people in america LOVE FREEDOM, and when its taken away...watch out. besides, DVD owners will just buy their DVD's from asian sellers on Ebay at that point...

Winn
11-26-07, 11:41 AM
Once again Dave Vaughn comes through with the numbers for us. Thanks, Dave!

Calamus
11-26-07, 11:58 AM
Here are a few other points about the NEW old Trek that may impact their sales.

Many of the Star Trek purest out there will not buy modified content. Re-mastered, yes, but no to modified (think colorized B/W classics and the backlash that had)

This is not the first appearance of these enhanced releases as most/all have been show on TV.

Pecker
11-26-07, 12:04 PM
I see HMM have managed to avoid putting up the weekly Top 10s/Top 5s, instead opting for YTD figures.

Will this become permanent, or is it a one-off?

Will we get to see this week's charts from another source?

Steve W

Winn
11-26-07, 12:31 PM
I see HMM have managed to avoid putting up the weekly Top 10s/Top 5s, instead opting for YTD figures.

Will this become permanent, or is it a one-off?

Will we get to see this week's charts from another source?

Steve W

This is probably a one week deal since most of the work on the magazine was probably done last week, which was a very short work week (2.5-3 days, depending on how early employees are released the day before thanksgiving.). They probably did everything but the pie charts first then plugged them in qhen they got the numbers and declared that section finished.

It is unlikely we will see this week's charts from another source. They may give us the breakdown this Friday, but I doubt it.

todrigo
11-26-07, 12:40 PM
Br 55 - 45 Hd

Everdog
11-26-07, 12:49 PM
Br 55 - 45 Hd

You are off by 11 :D(this thread is for last week).

Winn
11-26-07, 12:50 PM
Br 55 - 45 Hd

Wrong thread, but I got it.

SGRSBSKIER
11-26-07, 01:53 PM
I know the weekly/YTD/SI

66:34 weekly
65:35 YTD
61:39 SI

But where are you people getting how well Shrek III and Oceans movies did or their ratios?
HMM is only giving ratio's for YTD for all titles through 11/11.

Winn
11-26-07, 01:55 PM
I know the weekly/YTD/SI

66:34 weekly
65:35 YTD
61:39 SI

But where are you people getting how well Shrek III and Oceans movies did or their ratios?
HMM is only giving ratio's for YTD for all titles through 11/11.

Some ratios were leaked early.

Neo1965
11-26-07, 02:03 PM
Some ratios were leaked early.

The change from weekly to YTD titles is a big problem. Perhaps we just got too good at guessing the actual units? Nielsen do charge money for that service. :D We on similar threads, we provide that for free.

allargon
11-26-07, 02:05 PM
Some ratios were leaked early.

The thing is finally up. It took all weekend.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom112507/index.php

I will shut up and keep my opinion to myself before we jeopardize these thread.

I will just link to the #'s.

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2007/11/nielsen111807.png

Grubert
11-27-07, 09:00 AM
(wrong thread)