Here we go again, week 16 of the Nielsen Prediction Contest. I'm in a bit of a hurry, so this will be short.

Our main competition this week is Shrek 3 vs. a now seemingly monthly BOGO deal from Disney and/or Sony. The BD side is also helped by a highly anticipated catalog title, Close Encounters of the Third Kind. Warner brings the Ocean's trilogy out as well, with the last movie being a day and date release.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

This thread is not for the discussion of math, the advantages or disadvantages of either format, an analysis of the Nielsen numbers, any other source of sales figures (unless they are a reason you are making your prediction) or any insults.

I will post my prediction around 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. My prediction marks the end of the entry period. You may change your prediction any time up until then.

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

Nielsen contest entries for 11/23/2007

NAME BD:HD
venk 72:28
badboi 71:29
dobyblue 71:29
ehomer 69:31
MRMOTA 69:31
CRFTony 68:32
thebland 68:32
Aresca 68:32
fitprod 68:32
ack_bk 68:32
jwdav 68:32
surfdude12 67:33
antony30bc 67:33
ts.enigma 67:33
jkwest 67:33
sunstar 67:33
frizshizzle 66:34
Optica 66:34
spacejamz 66:34
LynxFX 66:34
huntaar 66:34
MASrules 66:34
bolaar 66:34
Rich Peterson 65:35
rcutlass70 65:35
Winn 65:35
audiomixer 65:35
studiotan 65:35
crimsona 65:35
phansson 65:35
plazman 65:35
Reylas 65:35
todrigo 65:35
lomax 65:35
Bill0711 65:35
elikjom 65:35
ricwhite 64:36
UxiSXRD 64:36
Baccusboy 64:36
shamus 64:36
JuLx64 64:36
Elwar 63:37
Brian Hampton 63:37
edgebsl 63:37
soremekun 63:37
user friendly 63:37
iontyre 63:37
JAC6 63:37
hassoon 62:38
splinters 62:38
SGRSBSKIER 62:38
ToddUGA 62:38
eightninesuited 62:38
Kemet 62:38
PrinceLH 62:38
donricouga 62:38
bato 62:38
boomster 62:38
Evan702 62:38
GeorgeLV 62:38
badandy642 62:38
MattHD 62:38
Clark Burk 61:39
Leviathin25 61:39
neillkirn 61:39
chirpie 61:39
Noggin1980 61:39
manikin 61:39
Woodshed 61:39
ixalon 61:39
Azumi 61:39
30XS955 User 60:40
Husso 60:40
Ethos99 60:40
ataxic_dentist 60:40
chipvideo 60:40
xradman 60:40
Numanoid101 60:40
GJN 60:40
Jim Morrison 60:40
darwin316 60:40
Jonto81 60:40
Greg Kettell 60:40
RDarrylR 60:40
Jocky Wilson 60:40
tgraphics 60:40
darinp2 60:40
Blu-Devil 60:40
Will d s 60:40
extra_hc 60:40
MichaelHDDVD 60:40
JeffY 60:40
gdeep 60:40
xue891 60:40
tonngo0 59:41
Lbarber 59:41
JoeFigueiredo 59:41
Jagt Mirage 59:41
ICBM99 59:41
habscolts 59:41
Vov76 59:41
Sketcha 59:41
Raxel 59:41
stefanpaulmayer 59:41
Neo1965 59:41
Everdog 59:41
Rooper 59:41
dildatonr 59:41
Bailey151 58:42
Calamus 58:42
dc_pilgrim 58:42
SquirrelPhister 58:42
Kosty 58:42
m1cst4rr 58:42
rdjam 58:42
jhinesjr 58:42
TheCuze 58:42
Icemage 58:42
dumbswede 58:42
online 58:42
theflux 58:42
gand41f 58:42
Grubert 58:42
vancamp 58:42
Robert Spalding 57:43
oregoncalfroper 57:43
Wet1 57:43
SamwisetheBrave 56:44
dmcfan 56:44
Chris_TC 56:44
mswoods1 56:44
aaronwt 56:44
trondmm 56:44
OggideM 56:44
bobgpsr 56:44
raaj 55:45
PopcornReady 55:45
Kable 55:45
george king 55:45
digicam95 55:45
CochiseGuy 55:45
hammie34 55:45
basano 55:45
allargon 54:46
geko29 54:46
TPigeon2006 54:46
Steve Schauer 54:46
anttimonty 53:47
bori 53:47
briankmonkey 53:47
caesartheboxer 53:47
GmanAVS 53:47
wipron 53:47
randori 53:47
roadmanc 53:47
yampan 52:48
spankstheclown 52:48
alfbinet 52:48
Ronin_R6 52:48
ddelrio 51:49
Technicolor 51:49
Xylon 50:50
DanTou 50:50
khwiggins2 50:50
user4avsforum 50:50
Psound 50:50
pythagoras 49:51
Customgamer1 49:51
krylonone 49:51
bigdaveman 49:51
Andy_Dandy 47:53
Von-Bek 47:53
gljvd 46:54
zikdaman 45:55
kkozma 40:60
Shmack 30:70
vurbano 20:80


New Releases included in this weeks numbers:

HD DVD
Pride & Prejudice (2005) (Universal)
Shrek the Third (Dreamworks)
Ultimate Force (BCI)
Ocean's Giftset (Warner)
Ocean's Thirteen (Warner)

BD
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Sony)
Prison Break: Season One (Fox)
Dragon Ball Z: Broly - The Legendary Super Saiyan/Broly - Second Coming (Double Feature) (FUNimation)
IMAX: Africa the Serengeti (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Alaska Spirit of the Wild (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Antarctica -- An Adventure of a Different Nature (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Australia Land Beyond Time (Razor Digital)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Volume Three (Starz)
Ultimate Force (BCI)
Ocean's Giftset (Warner)
Ocean's Thirteen (Warner)

Nielsen contest results for 11/16/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 65:35

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
venk 66:34 2 0.50
Rooper 74:26 7 2.86
Enigma 74:26 14 3.00
OggideM 68:32 1 3.00
JeffY 73:27 13 3.15
Everdog 73:27 15 3.27
Grubert 74:26 13 3.31
MASrules 76:24 15 3.33
Neo1965 75:25 15 3.33
Bill0711 69:31 6 3.33
MichaelHDDVD 70:30 15 3.40
gand41f 80:20 14 3.43
stefanpaulmayer 68:32 13 3.54
theflux 78:22 15 3.60
trondmm 73:27 11 3.73
extra_hc 76:24 14 3.79
huntaar 74:26 10 3.80
MattHD 73:27 5 3.80
oregoncalfroper 73:27 7 3.86
Azumi 78:22 15 3.87
Will d s 70:30 11 3.91
lomax 75:25 15 4.00
ixalon 74:26 5 4.00
TPigeon2006 81:19 15 4.07
Blu-Devil 75:25 14 4.07
Raxel 69:31 14 4.07
badandy642 75:25 10 4.10
JAC6 77:23 9 4.11
darinp2 78:22 15 4.13
Sketcha 76:24 15 4.13
Woodshed 74:26 8 4.13
todrigo 78:22 13 4.15
manikin 75:25 15 4.20
online 72:28 15 4.20
shamus 79:21 14 4.21
dumbswede 77:23 9 4.22
aaronwt 65:35 15 4.27
Reylas 74:26 15 4.33
iontyre 76:24 12 4.33
Ilka 76:24 6 4.33
Vov76 76:24 11 4.36
user friendly 80:20 8 4.38
hammie34 72:28 15 4.40
ddelrio 70:30 5 4.40
fitprod 77:23 14 4.50
GeorgeLV 73:27 14 4.50
merv43 69:31 4 4.50
geko29 71:29 15 4.53
allargon 65:35 14 4.57
habscolts 68:32 7 4.57
Icemage 80:20 15 4.60
CochiseGuy 75:25 10 4.60
rob71 77:23 5 4.60
LynxFX 80:20 15 4.73
Noggin1980 68:32 11 4.73
David Scott 73:27 15 4.80
digicam95 77:23 10 4.80
Jocky Wilson 78:22 5 4.80
whippersnapper 76:24 5 4.80
Evan702 68:32 5 4.80
boomster 72:28 11 4.82
Ronin_R6 72:28 12 4.83
mswoods1 76:24 10 4.90
ottscay 83:17 14 4.93
UxiSXRD 81:19 15 5.00
Baccusboy 75:25 12 5.00
chirpie 72:28 11 5.00
coolhand 71:29 9 5.00
RDarrylR 77:23 8 5.00
bato 75:25 3 5.00
dakota81 70:30 1 5.00
howyoudoin 70:30 1 5.00
TheCuze 70:30 1 5.00
wipron 74:26 9 5.11
luclin999 71:29 7 5.14
spacejamz 82:18 14 5.21
donricouga 76:24 14 5.21
ICBM99 69:31 13 5.23
soremekun 75:25 14 5.29
jhinesjr 79:21 6 5.33
PrinceLH 69:31 6 5.33
Kemet 73:27 8 5.38
neillkirn 81:19 10 5.40
GmanAVS 65:35 14 5.43
Chris_TC 66:34 7 5.43
phansson 76:24 10 5.60
Greg Kettell 75:25 5 5.60
george king 65:35 8 5.63
Jonto81 62:38 11 5.64
MrXpress 74:26 3 5.67
crimsona 70:30 14 5.71
eightninesuited 73:27 15 5.73
Leviathin25 70:30 8 5.75
MarekM 79:21 15 5.80
Aresca 84:16 8 5.88
Jagt Mirage 74:26 4 6.00
darwin316 71:29 2 6.00
avultra 71:29 1 6.00
Jim Morrison 80:20 13 6.23
ToddUGA 81:19 8 6.25
JoeFigueiredo 67:33 4 6.25
Lbarber 83:17 6 6.33
audiomixer 71:29 3 6.33
Kable 65:35 8 6.38
user4avsforum 65:35 11 6.45
GJN 75:25 6 6.67
PopcornReady 72:28 8 6.75
khwiggins2 70:30 6 6.83
spankstheclown 72:28 1 7.00
dobyblue 81:19 8 7.13
thebland 80:20 7 7.14
yampan 77:23 6 7.17
JackBee 81:19 9 7.22
ChristopherB 78:22 6 7.33
edgebsl 78:22 6 7.50
vfquest 78:22 6 7.50
Winn 78:22 15 7.53
briankmonkey 70:30 15 7.60
Optica 73:27 3 7.67
Brian Hampton 81:19 7 7.71
m1cst4rr 73:27 4 7.75
SGRSBSKIER 76:24 11 7.82
Jeff Flowerday 48:52 8 8.00
bigdaveman 75:25 7 8.00
Numanoid101 75:25 6 8.00
jkwest 81:19 13 8.23
darkedgex 85:15 4 8.25
Clark Burk 68:32 4 8.25
CRFTony 82:18 10 8.30
dmcfan 67:33 4 8.50
raaj 87:13 7 8.57
tiger roach 73:27 3 8.67
Mel2 83:17 7 8.71
ts.enigma 75:25 5 8.80
xradman 70:30 9 9.00
Robert Spalding 82:18 7 9.00
bori 54:46 4 9.00
eurotrance 56:44 1 9.00
Kosty 49:51 15 9.07
DanTou 80:20 6 9.17
SquirrelPhister 56:44 6 9.17
kkozma 80:20 9 9.22
Hockeytown Fan 60:40 6 9.33
rcutlass70 68:32 4 9.50
thomopolis 81:19 2 9.50
mcgarnagle 87:13 7 9.86
Rich Peterson 75:25 1 10.00
dc_pilgrim 78:22 4 10.25
tonngo0 70:30 7 10.29
frizshizzle 72:28 3 10.33
anttimonty 85:15 4 10.50
chipvideo 80:20 4 10.50
griffon2k 68:32 2 11.00
JulesH 54:46 1 11.00
BrerBear 77:23 4 11.25
ataxic_dentist 76:24 4 11.25
Ethos99 79:21 3 12.00
Calamus 77:23 1 12.00
Sy- 82:18 4 12.50
antony30bc 78:22 1 13.00
splinters 78:22 1 13.00
ThumperII 78:22 1 13.00
galperi1 85:15 2 13.50
nyg 79:21 1 14.00
ricwhite 79:21 1 14.00
Elwar 77:23 3 14.33
30XS955 User 80:20 1 15.00
Husso 80:20 1 15.00
jling84 80:20 2 16.00
Customgamer1 73:27 2 16.00
hassoon 81:19 1 16.00
Andy_Dandy 63:37 6 16.50
badboi 82:18 1 17.00
surfdude12 83:17 1 18.00
Shmack 50:50 14 19.00
ehomer 85:15 1 20.00
space2001 85:15 1 20.00
TheDaddyJDS 93:7 1 28.00



Perfect Picks:


4
trondmm (6,7,8,13)

3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
BrynRhys (3,4,11)
GmanAVS (4,5,15)

2
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
MASrules (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)
Grubert (6,10)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7,11)
ToddUGA (8,11)
dumbswede (8,12)
extra_hc (10,12)
Kork (11,12)
TPigeon2006 (8,13)
gand41f (3, 13)
theflux (12,13)
oregoncalfroper (13,14)
Rooper (11,14)
Vov76 (10,14)
Kable (13,15)
aaronwt (6,15)

1
user4avsforum (15)
george king (15)
allargon (15)
aaronwt (15)
MarekM (14)
phansson (14)
geko29 (14)
MrXpress (14)
venk (14)
Brian Hampton (13)
theone2 (13)
chipvideo (13)
Reginald Trent (13)
mlankton (13)
bunkaroo (13)
wipron (13)
Greg Kettell (13)
Neo1965 (13)
Bill0711 (13)
rob71 (13)
anotheraviator (12)
frasersean (12)
SquirrelPhister (12)
GeorgeLV (12)
manikin (12)
lomax (12)
alfbinet (12)
neillkirn (12)
ack_bk (12)
stefanpaulmayer (12)
kevivoe (12)
ChristopherB (11)
edgebsl (11)
spacejamz (11)
FortySix&2 (11)
huntaar (11)
user friendly (10)
Kemet (10)
Reylas (10)
Blu-Devil (10)
patrick99 (10)
pdusk88 (10)
philnerd (10)
PrinceLH (10)
SGRSBSKIER (9)
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
iontyre (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 74 3 75 (13) [60] 62 50 (12) [12] 65.14 65 64
2 90 4 88 (22) [73] 66 58 (8) [13] 68.3 68 68
3 94 9 75 (4) [11] 71 55 (16) [74] 68.46 69 70
4 98 6 81 (13) [69] 68 55*(13) [23] 69.27 71 72
5 107 3 70 (14) [89] 56 40 (16) [15] 59.64 60 60
6 122 11 70 (10) [87] 60 45 (15) [24] 62.29 62 62
7 132 14 72 (11) [67] 61 45 (16) [51] 61.26 62 62
8 139 22 74 (11) [38] 63 50 (13) [89] 61.99 62 63
9 137 1 69 (15) [130] 54 40 (14) [6] 60.47 61 60
10 146 11 83 (15) [35] 68 45 (23) [100] 64 64 64
11 150 10 78 (7) [15] 71 35 (36) [125] 66.41 67 70
12 184 15 76 (25) [68] 51 2 (49) [101] 47.91 49 51
13 174 17 70 (15) [99] 55 20 (35) [58] 56.34 57 55
14 172 8 86 (15) [21] 71 27 (44) [143] 62.51 65 68
15 177 6 93 (28) [163] 65 48 (17) [9] 74.20 75 75
16 177 72 20 59 60 60
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

*outrageous guess ignored

(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion. The mods made it clear that going OT in the new thread would not be tolerated. The game is currently getting over 90 entries per week. Those 90 posts would clutter up the main Nielsen thread.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) publishes the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

5- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVD, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

6- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert has confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

October6, 2006 list of contributors. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=75416&d=1171406427)

7- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).

60:40

I want to please ask that people follow the rules of this thread and only post guesses - we do not want to get this thread banned

59:41

Bd:hd

56:44

60:40

55:45

49:51

61:39

60:40

58:42

54:46

This is my 500th post. I better get this right. Hehe.

Math corrected. Thanks, PR! :o

I'm gonna go with 50:50

I haven't been right once, or even close for that matter. :D

I'm gonna go with 62:38. It seems apparent that the BOGOs from the Blu-ray side are having huge effect.

63:37.

66:34

67:33


I got worked last week...

Lets keep this real, foo..

57:43

56:44

54:36

This is my 500th post. I better get this right. Hehe.

You might start with math. That adds to 90. :p

58:42

Hey Winn, could you add one more column to the table of our standings? I have no idea how hard it is to do this, but I'd like to see a rank to see how far I slip (or gain) each week.

53:47 Bd

49:51

53:47

Shrek doesn't seem to have the interest and hype of Transformers and the BOGO stacked on top makes me go 72:28 Blu

This week's predictions are going to be hard. We lead in with an odd week that was much lower than most expectations, mine included (13 points off...blah), we've got a BOGO, we've got a day-and-date that had good gross, heavy ad backing, and lackluster reviews, and we've got a neutral day-and-date that is likely to sell well. Mix in some WM players and you've got a nice juicy WAG. :D

I'll hold my prediction until Tuesday as usual.

53-47

60:40

63:37

60:40

65:35

53/47

Number are up. 65:35

I'm surprised it was that close. Amazon must be having less and less influence on the actual numbers.

59:41

62 Blu
38 HD DVD

58:42

54:46

60 /40

59:41

60:40

63:37

66:54

60:40

59-41

56:44

Guess Star-Trek sells a couple of 100.000 the first days, so I'll say:

47:53

58:42

60:40 Bd

65:35

61:39

50:50

66:54

You don't rule maths... :p

BD 62:38 hd dvd

58:42

61:39

60:40. Neither side has anything.

Is the BOGO for Blu-ray only at amazon or is it also at CC and BB?

If its just at amazon it wont really affect what I am thinking.

60:40
Would be nice if there were no bogos going on. Makes it to confusing to estimate what the buying habbets are of shoppers.

53:47

60:40

66/34

20:80

Last week was probably the best HD DVD showing simply because at least to me Blu should have done significantly better. Maybe those 30,000+ new HD DVD players are making a difference.

any way
61:39

as good as any guess

I'm gonna say 58:42

The fact that Blu-ray has no exclusive new day-and-date releases will lead to a rather close week. Close Encounters will sell, and the Ocean's releases will sell better on Blu, and the IMAX releases might hit that niche hard, but Shrek is a rather good holiday exclusive for HD-DVD, and that will give them a good sales week.

That said, HD-DVD is going to have it a little rough for the remainder of the year, going against the Die Hards, Superbad, Pirates (will sell HUGE), Lost, Hairspray, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3, etc. Bourne will be really good for the format, but that's about it (Star Trek won't fly, imo). We'll just have to wait and see how things turn out.

Bd 55:45 Hd

58:42

65:35

BOGO have a big impact. I believe we will see BD BOGO for the rest of the year every other week.

60/40

66:34

I'm gonna say 58:42

The fact that Blu-ray has no exclusive new day-and-date releases will lead to a rather close week. Close Encounters will sell, and the Ocean's releases will sell better on Blu, and the IMAX releases might hit that niche hard, but Shrek is a rather good holiday exclusive for HD-DVD, and that will give them a good sales week.

That said, HD-DVD is going to have it a little rough for the remainder of the year, going against the Die Hards, Superbad, Pirates (will sell HUGE), Lost, Hairspray, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3, etc. Bourne will be really good for the format, but that's about it (Star Trek won't fly, imo). We'll just have to wait and see how things turn out.
Is that so??

Funny how i think that the exact opposite is true and that the real hard weeks for HDDVD (the combo of Spider man and Disney) are behind. If Ratatoulie can't move things i don't know how simpsons (simpsons on an expensive high-def disk, yeah that will sell a lot) or the expensive die hard boxset is going to make a difference. If the spider man boxset can't give the final blow why would the more expensive die hard boxset be such a huge success??

Oh and Bourne is not "about it" for HDDVD. Releases like Stardust and The kingdom will perform just fine even if they weren't big BO successes because the HDDVD userbase are movie fans unlike most of the blu-ray userbase (that are mostly gamers).

The only thing that can keep Blu-ray on top (after the SM+disney weeks) with a decent lead (around 60-40) are the various BOGO deals.

68:32

Guess Star-Trek sells a couple of 100.000 the first days, so I'll say:

47:53

I don't think Star Trek sales are included in this week . . . so you might want to change your prediction.

Is that so??

Funny how i think that the exact opposite is true and that the real hard weeks for HDDVD (the combo of Spider man and Disney) are behind. If Ratatoulie can't move things i don't know how simpsons (simpsons on an expensive high-def disk, yeah that will sell a lot) or the expensive die hard boxset is going to make a difference. If the spider man boxset can't give the final blow why would the more expensive die hard boxset be such a huge success??

Oh and Bourne is not "about it" for HDDVD. Releases like Stardust and The kingdom will perform just fine even if they weren't big BO successes because the HDDVD userbase are movie fans unlike most of the blu-ray userbase (that are mostly gamers).

The only thing that can keep Blu-ray on top (after the SM+disney weeks) with a decent lead (around 60-40) are the various BOGO deals.


can you post this in some other thread ?
seems like it's very hard to go with new rules, or somebody is trying to CLOSE this thread....

Marek

After the kool-aid induced madness of last week, i'll go 60:40 BD this week.

can you post this in some other thread ?
seems like it's very hard to go with new rules, or somebody is trying to CLOSE this thread....

Marek
Why weren't you offended with the post that i quoted (where HDDVD has nothing blablabla...)??

63:37

67:33

59:41

62:38

61 39

69 entries so far.

Hey Winn, could you add one more column to the table of our standings? I have no idea how hard it is to do this, but I'd like to see a rank to see how far I slip (or gain) each week.

At this point, that is not something I can do.

66:34

67:33

52:48

Hmm, originally, I was thinking of going with 40:60 in favor of HD DVD, but chipvideo beat me to that prediction. I see also that vurbano beat me to the ultra-optimisic end of things this week. And, although I would normally strive to be the most optimistic HD DVD predictor, I don't think I'm willing to just throw my average to the wind! ;)

I'll go with 30:70 in favor of HD DVD. Yeah, I could go for that! :D

53:47

58:42

Hmm, originally, I was thinking of going with 40:60 in favor of HD DVD, but chipvideo beat me to that prediction. I see also that vurbano beat me to the ultra-optimisic end of things this week. And, although I would normally strive to be the most optimistic HD DVD predictor, I don't think I'm willing to just throw my average to the wind! ;)

I'll go with 30:70 in favor of HD DVD. Yeah, I could go for that! :D

changed mine back to in favor of bd. I think today is the start of a new week. so tomorrow is the next weeks picks.

60:40

53/47
my 1st post

I haven't given it too much thought and may come back and change this after thinking about it, but just in case I don't make it back, I'll go with:

60:40.

--Darin

50:50

The fact that Shrek 3 was still a 300 million dollar movie and the chance that too frequent bogos just might loose a little steam........

I'll say 52:48

59:41

52:48

I'll venture a guess. Eleventy-Billion to 1 :)

Actual guess is 62:38

Another very difficult week to predict. Shrek 3 has apparently sold on par with Spider-Man 3 (presumably not including the box set), which means it's considerably less than Transformers. The BOGO sale this time had a lot more titles, and they probably sold quite a lot of discs. HD DVD should still pick up quite a lot of points this week, though.

My guess is: 56:44

62:38

62:38

Last week my guess was way off and yet somehow I moved up into 1st for people who guessed all 15 weeks (Enigma is still WAY ahead of me though).

This week will be even more of a WAG. I need more time to think because I could come close or I could be off by 15!:eek:

55 : 45

62:38

-Splints

62:38

BD : HD
55:45

I have a remarkable record: on average, 6 points the wrong way, with about 60% chance of overshooting in the opposite direction the wind is blowing.

Shrek 3 does seem to be well displayed in stores -- in HD DVD. The price is a little scary but let's hope all the web-enabled features give it lift this week and next. I wouldn't rule out Pride and Prejudice having some impact, too in the "wife approved" category. and given I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry did surprisingly well at rental, who knows? maybe more will be picked up for future viewings.

In contrast, Blu-ray's Close Encounters release will have lots of appeal ... especially to the older kids driving PS3s when they can wrench the consoles away from their teenage sons. ;) Prison Break seems a wild card: will it sell on hidef like Heroes? And, of course, lots of steam left in the kitchen for Chef Rat this week.

On balance ... close to a toss up.

56:44

64:36

I'm glad this slot was still available...

Also, does the Tohsiba 5 Free HD-DVD offer with their player count as 5 sales ?

58:42

But hopefully, I'll be shown to be too conservative again, and HD DVD does better than that...

64:36

I'm glad this slot was still available...

Also, does the Tohsiba 5 Free HD-DVD offer with their player count as 5 sales ?

Nope, and neither does the 2 free in the box. BOGO sales count and so do other buy a player get a movie deals.

63:37

59:41

i will go 65:35 blu-ray

Nope, and neither does the 2 free in the box. BOGO sales count and so do other buy a player get a movie deals.

The 2 free in the box don't count.

The five after mail-in rebate don't count.

However, the additional free titles offered by a retailer do count.

65-35 At least this time it adds to 100 :)

Reylas

60:40

Sigh...let's try again.

62:38

Blu-ray 64:36 HDDVD

62:38

64:36

60:40

Now I know I'm the guy who always whines about Amazon rank meaning nothing..
and I still stand by that but I admit I follow the Amazon ranks out of curiosity and there's been some interesting things going on with it today. Things I haven't really seen since January 2007 or so. I wouldn't draw any solid conclusions based on it but y'all should go take a look at the product wars page.

Amazon seems to rank bestsellers hourly, so if they run a hot deal, the best seller list tips immediately. Plus, I think the sales tend to load sales into a time period - for example, the BD BOGO probably flushed out a lot of the available BD money in that time period. When it ended, it would make sense that BD titles dropped lower.

The Neilsen seems to be the only numbers that look at absolute qty sold.

64:36

63:37

59:41

49:51 Hd

62:38

46:54

Br 65-35 Hd

56:44

Br 53:47 Hd

58:42

67:33
Bd;hd

65-35

56.25 : 43.75
Bd : Hd

Been insanely busy. Reminders will go out later.

56:44

68:32 Bd/hd

60:40

Total guess.

66:34

50:50
The diminishing return for BOGOs, no significant exclusive D&D releases for BD, Shrek 3 on HD DVD, plus the influx of new HD DVD players should give HD a slight win. However it just seems fitting that after the much publicized “stalemate” comment attributed to Sony’s CEO Sir Howard the two formats have a stalemate week so I have to pick’em even.

60:40

66:34

61:39

Hmm never tried this... 69:31 blu

52:48 Bd

59:41 Bd

124 entries. Prepping the reminders.

65:35 Blu-Ray

59:41

58:42 blu

59:41

64:36 Bd

57:43 I don't think Shek will be that big, and I don't think the BOGO have as big an effect as the last one. SM3 and Rats will still do OK....Great, I probably went too high for HD DVD, but what the heck, its another WAG!

49:51 Hd!

60:40

I think Shrek tanked.

68:32 bd

60:40

71:29

68:32

71:29

57-43

65:35

68:32

67:33

Antony30bc

69 : 31

54 : 46

65/35

55/45

61-39

58:42

61:39

59:41

Honestly, I have no idea -- there seem to be a lot of free movies given out at retailers with Toshiba players (which should count against the numbers). I'm just thinking they won't sell that many since the $98 sale is over.

58:42

enjoy
gandalf :o

Honestly, I have no idea -- there seem to be a lot of free movies given out at retailers with Toshiba players (which should count against the numbers). I'm just thinking they won't sell that many since the $98 sale is over.

58:42

enjoy
gandalf :o
Non-bundled disks that are being given by retailers (like the 3 extra disks being given by amazon) actually count in the nielsen numbers.

Anyway it is extremely difficult to predict because of all the offers by both formats (mostly blu ray)
63-37.

60:40

60:40 Blu

53 : 47

gunning for 2 perfect picks in a row and joining the elusive trondmm at the top :)

...... the tide keeps rising, "better in than out I say" ;)

58:42

61:39

65:35

I will post my prediction around 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. My prediction marks the end of the entry period. You may change your prediction any time up until then.

Since this is Thanksgiving week and people are off on both Thursday and Friday and most employers let the employees out by Noon on Wednesday (today)... I would expect to see the numbers up by Noon Pacific today (3:00pm EST). Just speculation but it makes sense.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom112507/index.php

I'm thinking between 55 to 58 ratio for BD. Not exactly splitting the difference, but since only one other person has picked it, I'll go with -

57:43

EDIT - This guess was mixed up ... see guess further on in thread.


-Brian

55(BD):45(HD)

I am surprised so many are predicting so close when BD had the BOGO at Amazon and Close Encounters was released and week 2 of Rats and Cars v. Only Shrek on the HD DVD side.

Winn,

Can I change my guess? Plazman convinced me....

65:35

57:43 I don't think Shek will be that big, and I don't think the BOGO have as big an effect as the last one. SM3 and Rats will still do OK....Great, I probably went too high for HD DVD, but what the heck, its another WAG!

59:41

Is it too late to change? I would like to go with 59:41. - Thanks!

Just a reminder, you can change your guess any time until I post my pick.

59:41

58:42
Expect Shrek to do pretty well this week...

62:38

I am surprised so many are predicting so close when BD had the BOGO at Amazon and Close Encounters was released and week 2 of Rats and Cars v. Only Shrek on the HD DVD side.

I am expecting that at least some of the 100k HD players sold a couple of weeks ago would start to show up in software sales, thereby closing the gap further than a pure "Ogre-led" HD offensive. I don't think CEoTTK will be such a big hit, even on HDM. Residual sales of the Rat and Cars should help BD numbers though.

59:41

68:32

I have to change mine if I can..

I got confused thinking about this weeks HD DVD sale which won't be in this weeks numbers.

I'll go edit out the old guess.
63:37

I'm thinking between 55 to 58 ratio for BD. Not exactly splitting the difference, but since only one other person has picked it, I'll go with -

57:43

59:41

Is it too late to change? I would like to go with 59:41. - Thanks!

Oh, why go it alone. :p

Please change my guess to my first thought:

55:45

I don't beleive we can discuss sales related info, so I'll just point the direction - The Hollywood Reporter (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ia0d5d5dafa5db17014323e907247257b) has some interesting First Alert Data.

62:38

Just to help you guys out
On the high-definition disc front, "Shrek the Third" was the hands-down winner on the HD DVD chart, outselling fellow debutante "Oceans 13" by a 3-to-1 margin. On the Blu-ray chart, "Ratatouille" remained at No. 1, while "Ocean's 13" bowed at No. 2. "Ocean's Thirteen" is one of the few recent new releases available on both high-definition disc formats; even so, total sales were about 17% less than the HD DVD-only version of "Shrek the Third."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ia0d5d5dafa5db17014323e907247257b

50:50

A 53:47 stalemate.

Guessing 50:50

58:42

Where do I check for the results ?


Djoel

55:45

Shrek the Third with an Oceans 13 spoiler, plus residuals on Spiderman/Ratatouille this week?

58:42

45:55

Too late to change?

If not, put me down for 40:60

47:53

61:39 Bd

Just to help you guys out


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ia0d5d5dafa5db17014323e907247257b
That would mean that ocean's 13 bd outsold the HD version 60-40. How does that compare to the last dual format release?

57:43 Br

51:49

54:46

51:49

I'm going to try something new, a completely serious prediction.

Here is the incredibly specious logic behind it.

Amazon is not the greatest indicator, but it is one. Past performances indicate that Amazon performance for animated movies will outdo their performance in B&M stores. This is why people were high on their predictions last week for the Rat.

Shrek did not do very well on Amazon.

While it topped the HD DVD chart, that is not terribly difficult as Transformers is greatly reduced in sales by now. I would guess as few as 35k copies would easily top the chart for either format.

I'll call Shrek at about 45k copies on HD DVD. I'd put the Rat near that either way.

Now, adding the IDHaC factor, my math gives me a repeat, 65:35.

And we are done for the week. I remain busy and will not update the first post until I get a glorious day away from every thing tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving one and all. Even our non-US friends.

Winn.

Dunno if you know this but Rattatioue or however its spelt didn't release the week for these numbers. IT was released the week prior . So I don't see why it would have sold as many copies as shrek did.

Shrek was brand new and aside from Ocean's was the only major release for hd dvd.

I'm going to try something new, a completely serious prediction.

Here is the incredibly specious logic behind it.

Amazon is not the greatest indicator, but it is one. Past performances indicate that Amazon performance for animated movies will outdo their performance in B&M stores. This is why people were high on their predictions last week for the Rat.

Shrek did not do very well on Amazon.

While it topped the HD DVD chart, that is not terribly difficult as Transformers is greatly reduced in sales by now. I would guess as few as 35k copies would easily top the chart for either format.

I'll call Shrek at about 45k copies on HD DVD. I'd put the Rat near that either way.

Now, adding the IDHaC factor, my math gives me a repeat, 65:35.

And we are done for the week. I remain busy and will not update the first post until I get a glorious day away from every thing tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving one and all. Even our non-US friends.

Winn, thank you for keeping this up, and your reminders. However, This is a game correct? I can't wait for the numbers...somehow the low numbers for HD DVD will be going up from this day on...or not. I think they will. __________________

Winn.

Dunno if you know this but Rattatioue or however its spelt didn't release the week for these numbers. IT was released the week prior . So I don't see why it would have sold as many copies as shrek did.

Shrek was brand new and aside from Ocean's was the only major release for hd dvd.

Residual sales. I think Shrek did poorly.

Shrek 3 (base %): 100
Oceans 13: 83
Oceans 13 HD-DVD: 33
Oceans 13 Blu-ray: 50

Rat > 50

Little Rat has big legs.

Edit: Or Shrek/O13 bombed.

Shrek 3 (base %): 100
Oceans 13: 83
Oceans 13 HD-DVD: 33
Oceans 13 Blu-ray: 50

Rat > 50

Little Rat has big legs.

Edit: Or Shrek/O13 bombed.

And this is exactly why I feel that many participants here, including me, were a little bit optimistic with HD DVD sales.

I expect the numbers to be more like >70 BR but I considered it a little unfair to change my guess based on "insider information" yesterday.


Btw

Happy Thanksgiving to you US guys

I considered it a little unfair to change my guess based on "insider information" yesterday.


I agree. I refused to look at the link above as it wouldn't be fair for the people before me. Looking at it now, I think my 57:43 guess was over optimistic for BR... maybe I should have looked! :D

I agree. I refused to look at the link above as it wouldn't be fair for the people before me. Looking at it now, I think my 57:43 guess was over optimistic for BR... maybe I should have looked! :D

Same data, different interpretation ;)

I just don´t see where HD DVD could create that many sales that week if even Shrek couldn´t clearly dominate the charts.
Non-chart-title volume should definitely be in favor for BR since it was Bogo week.
My guess was mostly based on WM folks pushing Shrek sales but it seems that hasn´t happened.

But we´re kinda drifting here and will know for sure tomorrow anyway ;)

^ Yes, but life would be a lot less fun if we can't speculate for a few hours. :D It's a mixed blessing that now we can't posture, act out and argue endlessly about meaningless stuff right up till 1 minute before the results are announced. :)

^ Yes, but life would be a lot less fun if we can't speculate for a few hours. :D It's a mixed blessing that now we can't posture, act out and argue endlessly about meaningless stuff right up till 1 minute before the results are announced. :)

It´s a shame, isn´t it ;)

I finally got around to updating the first posts.

Uh...what?

That HD-DVD 'trendline' is entirely explained and encapsulated by the recent sales of Amazon. Its hardly 'clear' that its indicative of anything.

I'm looking forward to seeing today's numbers, of course.

But I am looking forward EVEN MORE to next week's numbers, which will be released on November 30th.

Based on what I am seeing on various sites' trackers, Bluray may have it's first Nielsen loss in those numbers released on November 30th.

Mark my words - I'm pretty sure of this one...

Uh...what?

That HD-DVD 'trendline' is entirely explained and encapsulated by the recent sales of Amazon. Its hardly 'clear' that its indicative of anything. Except that it is continuing now even when Blu-ray and HD DVD are having the same buy 2 get 1 offers.

Agree it is too soon to tell.

I'm looking forward to seeing today's numbers, of course.

But I am looking forward EVEN MORE to next week's numbers, which will be released on November 30th.

Based on what I am seeing on various sites' trackers, Bluray may have it's first Nielsen loss in those numbers released on November 30th.

Mark my words - I'm pretty sure of this one...
Hey rdjam, are you a Dolphins fan by any chance? :D

I finally got around to updating the first posts.
I think my 53:47 wild guess (post# 201) got missed.

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

That must hurt, considering the television advertising campaign Paramount invested on it - those commercials were everywhere.

I'm looking forward to seeing today's numbers, of course.

But I am looking forward EVEN MORE to next week's numbers, which will be released on November 30th.

Based on what I am seeing on various sites' trackers, Bluray may have it's first Nielsen loss in those numbers released on November 30th.

Mark my words - I'm pretty sure of this one...

So what big surprise will count for a "pretty sure" 1st win of the year for Hd dvd? Please fill us in....

Look at the eproduct wars site. HD DVD is doing pretty well there this week.

Dave, I see that on Amazon, but is anyone else doing this sale?

I don't see a sale like that doing better numbers than the original week release of "transformers".

That must hurt, considering the television advertising campaign Paramount invested on it - those commercials were everywhere.

I didn't see a single commercial or in-store display that mentioned HD DVD. When I went to CC all the displays were SD only. At first I thought it was sold out but then the lady said she had not got around to putting out the HD DVD versions.

I would love to see volume so we can tell what effect the BOGO had.

I didn't say I agreed with him, I think that is where he is getting his justification.

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

no surprise to me that shrek didn't do that well. imo paramount really screwed the pooch on the shrek release. it is mostly a movie for kids and the sd dvd cannibalized the hd sales. it was a non-combo kids movie with max hd dvd msrp. also it was the worst of the three shrek and for some insane reason they released it without releasing the other two. if they ever release the other two, i might get shrek 3 for a full set. it is the only major hd dvd release i passed on.

I didn't say I agreed with him, I think that is where he is getting his justification.

It's hard to imagine it would be enough to offset Die Hard 4.

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

You've seen the hard numbers or just the percentages? What is the layout if you've seen it?

Shrek 3 (base %): 100
Oceans 13: 83
Oceans 13 HD-DVD: 33
Oceans 13 Blu-ray: 50

Rat > 50

Little Rat has big legs.

Edit: Or Shrek/O13 bombed.Are those the real numbers?

no surprise to me that shrek didn't do that well. imo paramount really screwed the pooch on the shrek release. it is mostly a movie for kids and the sd dvd cannibalized the hd sales. it was a non-combo kids movie with max hd dvd msrp. also it was the worst of the three shrek and for some insane reason they released it without releasing the other two. if they ever release the other two, i might get shrek 3 for a full set. it is the only major hd dvd release i passed on.

The sad thing is that it is maybe the best HD DVD transfer yet!

I can't post hard numbers, but yes, I've seen them but I am running out the door.

ouch, am not even colse this week :(

Shrek III, youu dissapointed me :mad:

....... back to learning the Donkey Dance with the kids :p

are the numbers out?

The sad thing is that it is maybe the best HD DVD transfer yet!

i have over 200 titles on both formats and pure eye candy doesn't impress me that much anymore. i am getting a lot of enjoyment from the restoration of st:tos set.

The sad thing is that it is maybe the best HD DVD transfer yet!

What was it transfered from?;)

What was it transfered from?;)

from a sales perspective.... hd dvd to sd dvd.:eek:

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.
are the numbers out?
Last week Dave told us what the numbers were before Home Media Magazine came out and he was right. Looks like 66:34 is it.