'Toshiba sees both HD formats co-existing

21 November 2007 10:40 GMT - Toshiba has likened the high-def format war to buying petrol at a service station in the latest spat over who will win the battle for the high-def living room.

"The HD DVD Blu-ray battle is like petrol versus diesel at the pumps," Mike Eves, retail marketing executive, consumer products division for Toshiba told Pocket-lint. "Both will probably exist together rather than a single format wining out."

The news comes just days after Sony CEO Howard Stringer complained of a stalemate between the two formats.

"We were trying to win on the merits, which we were doing for a while, until Paramount changed sides", Stringer said, referring to the big news from this summer when Paramount and DreamWorks went HD DVD-only.

However Toshiba's Eves wouldn't be drawn into whether or not a dual player from the likes of Samsung and LG are a good thing. But that didn't stop one spokesman from Toshiba agreeing that he wouldn't want two boxes under his TV.

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/11388/12412/toshiba-see-hddvd-blu-ray-co-existing.phtml

So Sony sees a stalemate and Toshiba sees a stalemate.

Here's my prediction...withing the next year or two Toshiba and Sony will be making dual format players.

If dual format comes down in price really really quickly before either format takes off and the duals becomes the platform of choice. Then there will probably be no reason for studios to switch sides at all and everyone will be happy. But in the end, it doesn't look like that will happen for another 2 years with dual prices being so high.

Technically, yes.

Like CD (HD DVD) co-exists with LPs (you know what).

Face it, some BR fans would rather slit their wrists than adopt HD DVD so, yes, they will co-exist for a while.;)

I think co-existence is great. Now if we could just see an end to studio exclusivity, it would be perfect.

"Toshiba agreeing that he wouldn't want two boxes under his TV."

under the TV??? get a rack!!!!
my days of components under/on top of a tv are LONG over!

Technically, yes.

Like CD (HD DVD) co-exists with LPs (you know what).

Face it, some BR fans would rather slit their wrists than adopt HD DVD so, yes, they will co-exist for a while.;)

Yeah it doesnt work both ways.........:rolleyes:

I see a big difference in "Both will probably coexist rather than one winning out" and "We are at a stalemate right now"

One sounds like admission the other sounds like disappointment, imo.

Toshiba isn't making a good analogy.

If you have a car that uses diesel then you don't need petrol, and vice versa... and your diesel car can be driven on all the same roads and will take you to all the same places as a petrol fueled vehicle.

Unless all the movie studios produce for both Blu ray and HD DVD... it isn't about co-existing, because consumers have to choose one over the other OR invest in both.

Dual format players aren't the answer either... because that is no different than buying one of each player. Ultimately in order for prices to come down on hardware AND movies, quantities have to go up.. and that only happens if movie studios ALL go neutral OR one format survives over the other.

I think co-existence is great. Now if we could just see an end to studio exclusivity, it would be perfect.

I disagree. If all studios were neutral, we would have the same encodes on both formats, and PiP on both. What is the point of 2 formats when they both are EXACTLY the same?

Just give me an affordable DF player that will work with all BDs and decode all the audio codecs

under the TV??? get a rack!!!!
my days of components under/on top of a tv are LONG over!

While your situation might not be really unusual around here, it certainly doesn't represent the average user Toshiba is hoping to court for HDM. Not that I'm representative either, but despite having all three current game consoles, the HD DVD drive for the Xbox 360, an HD Tivo, and a Denon 3808ci in my setup - it all fits rather nicely on the stand below my 46" DLP.

I am surprised by the diesel vs. petrol comparison. I believe it's just as flawed as the Coke vs. Pepsi analogy in that you don't have thousands of flavors of either one. The economics won't support mastering in two formats, manufacturing and warehousing two formats, stocking shelves with two formats - for every single title. The only outcome I can see making sense is if dual-format players take over mainstream sales and studios pick the desired format for each title they produce.

Upside? Competitive royalty pricing between the two. Downside? Complexity of implementation will lead to more title incompatibility, player instability, and potentially higher player pricing in the short run.

Co-existence FTW!

I do not believe two formats can co-exist.
Pretty soon, one format will be cheaper and more convenient than the other.
And will win.

The other format does not need to die right away... it can linger a little more until it gets pushed to a specific segment (game console use only, for example) or a niche group (like geeks whose saliva levels are remotely regulated by the bit meter) LOL

That's all. I don't think two formats can co exist: it's too much trouble, too expensive, too much shelf space needed, too much anything.

"The HD DVD Blu-ray battle is like petrol versus diesel at the pumps," Mike Eves, retail marketing executive, consumer products division for Toshiba told Pocket-lint. "Both will probably exist together rather than a single format wining out."

I see that Toshiba understands that with the millions of PS3's out there - as HDTV adoptions increases - so will the number of PS3 owners who will buy BD movies. Sony is releasing PS3 games on BD so BD is not going away.

And Toshiba knows Sony is always the last to give in - and as long as they own a movie studio(s) they are going to release movies on BD.

Thus - the outcome is a stalemate - 2 formats with WB in the middle . . . which adds more credence that WB will stay neutral and take advantage of the sales from both formats.

The problem of course is when disc sales hit the 1 million per title mark. Then studios are going to get a TON of pressure from stockholders about lost revenue by staying exclusive.

Just my observations of course.

SPECULATION: CES 2009 - all studios except Sony announce they will start to support both formats

I have no problem with that at all. It will hasten better, cheaper technology and all studios will be participating on one format or the other (or both). It's all good for the enthusiast...

I have stated before that I see both formats staying around.

Due to the manufacturing differences:
HD DVD will cost less in the future and most likely become the standard issue. ($10-19.99)

While BD will act as a "Special/Criterion/Ultimate"($25-35) type of thing, with more lossless tracks due only to the storage capacity (TL51 pending).
<and sony films of course>

I do not believe two formats can co-exist.
Pretty soon, one format will be cheaper and more convenient than the other.
And will win.

The other format does not need to die right away... it can linger a little more until it gets pushed to a specific segment (game console use only, for example) or a niche group (like geeks whose saliva levels are remotely regulated by the bit meter) LOL

That's all. I don't think two formats can co exist: it's too much trouble, too expensive, too much shelf space needed, too much anything.

Completely agree with ya.

I have no problem with that at all. It will hasten better, cheaper technology and all studios will be participating on one format or the other (or both). It's all good for the enthusiast...

Hey Jeff! "Welcome back!" We missed you. All set with the new "Bland-A Plex" . . . ?

I see that Toshiba understands that with the millions of PS3's out there - as HDTV adoptions increases - so will the number of PS3 owners who will buy BD movies. Sony is releasing PS3 games on BD so BD is not going away.

And Toshiba knows Sony is always the last to give in - and as long as they own a movie studio(s) they are going to release movies on BD.


IMO TOSHIBA knows they're cheaper, and are essentially trying to instill confidence in buyers by saying "were not going away, they're not going away"

The unspoken truth being were both pretty-much the same thing why pay more?

I'd love to see a MAJOR push for DF by both, it's just still a little hard to imagine.

I do not believe two formats can co-exist.
Pretty soon, one format will be cheaper and more convenient than the other.
And will win.

The other format does not need to die right away... it can linger a little more until it gets pushed to a specific segment (game console use only, for example) or a niche group (like geeks whose saliva levels are remotely regulated by the bit meter) LOL

That's all. I don't think two formats can co exist: it's too much trouble, too expensive, too much shelf space needed, too much anything.

We have how many game console formats? (5 I think)

We have how many PC OS's? (at least 2)

We have how many car manufacturers?

Just because we have "always had" 1 does not mean we cannot have 2. Sure the retailers will be miffed because along with the consumer - they are the hardest hit.

The big problem I see is at the consumer level - the need for 2 players. This is NOT going away anytime soon because how long will it take a DF player to street for $249?

IMO TOSHIBA knows they're cheaper, and are essentially trying to instill confidence in buyers by saying "were not going away, they're not going away"

The unspoken truth being were both pretty-much the same thing why pay more?

I'd love to see a MAJOR push for DF by both, it's just still a little hard to imagine.

IMHO . . .

1. This is a "true" statement by Toshiba.

2. This is a "misleading" statement to the BDA. Get them to let down their guard . . . then hit them with everything they have . . the DVD+ priced DL, TL and Combo formats.

We have how many game console formats? (5 I think)

We have how many PC OS's? (at least 2)

We have how many car manufacturers?

Just because we have "always had" 1 does not mean we cannot have 2. Sure the retailers will be miffed because along with the consumer - they are the hardest hit.

The big problem I see is at the consumer level - the need for 2 players. This is NOT going away anytime soon because how long will it take a DF player to street for $249?

The biggest problem I see is apathy, not price.

IMHO . . .

1. This is a "true" statement by Toshiba.

2. This is a "misleading" statement to the BDA. Get them to let down their guard . . . then hit them with everything they have . . the DVD+ priced DL, TL and Combo formats.

IMO, TL (if it comes) is only going to falsely inflate the HD DVD software numbers and I seriously struggle to see how they will be able to get the pricing close to DVD.

I have no problem with that at all. It will hasten better, cheaper technology and all studios will be participating on one format or the other (or both). It's all good for the enthusiast...

Its nice to see how the new rules are reshaping our opinions for the better.
Competition is good too as maybe the new VC1 encoder is better than AVC?
But temper, temper:)

IMHO . . .

2. This is a "misleading" statement to the BDA. Get them to let down their guard . . . then hit them with everything they have . . the DVD+ priced DL, TL and Combo formats.

that would be great
:)

The biggest problem I see is apathy, not price.


Retailers nationwide crapping their pants over projected horrible xmas07 sales and the declining consumer economy in general might disagree with you.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/658814,CST-FIN-retail20.article

IMHO . . .

. . the DVD+ priced DL, TL and Combo formats.

I guess I don't have the right decoder ring, this one went over my head. :confused: Not sure what DVD+ is.

Thanks.

I guess I don't have the right decoder ring, this one went over my head. :confused: Not sure what DVD+ is.

Thanks.


selling hd/sd combos or hd/sd twins as the normal DVD price plus a few bucks. :confused:

I guess I don't have the right decoder ring, this one went over my head. :confused: Not sure what DVD+ is.

Thanks.

Oops! DVD+ pricing means DVD pricing plus a small increase, like $5.00.

:o

Retailers nationwide crapping their pants over projected horrible xmas07 sales and the declining consumer economy in general might disagree with you.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/658814,CST-FIN-retail20.article

Apathy goes hand in hand with a crappy economy IMO.

IMO, TL (if it comes) is only going to falsely inflate the HD DVD software numbers and I seriously struggle to see how they will be able to get the pricing close to DVD.

Here is what we have been told concerning both HD DVD and the TL formats:

1. Because HD DVD is based on the "same" technology as DVD - the cost to make HD DVD's is not that much different than DVD's.

2. The TL HD DVD will add a "small" increase in the manufacturing cost.

This from BD.com:

Stringer Reaffirms Sony's Commitment to Blu-ray
Posted November 21, 2007 by Josh

In an exclusive interview with The Hollywood Reporter, Sir Howard Stringer, CEO of Sony, reaffirmed Sony's commitment to Blu-ray. Citing comments made by Blu-ray partners, he stressed that the technical superiority of Blu-ray makes it the "better format", and even mentioned possible future 3D implementations.

He continued, "I think that's why Steven Spielberg held out his own product from going to HD DVD. Ultimately, if you're passionate about movies, which these DVD collectors are, Blu-ray is the best answer."

The price of Blu-ray player has recently gone down (look for those Black Friday specials), but still remain higher than their HD DVD counterparts. Stringer said not to expect prices to drop any further at this time, but added, "[Blu-ray] isn't the cheaper format, but it is the better format."

Josh is saying "with The Hollywood Reporter" but I can't find it:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/index.jsp

Oops! DVD+ pricing means DVD pricing plus a small increase, like $5.00.

:o

Thanks for the clarification.

That would be a great deal for the HD-DVD consumer, but why would the studios back it? If I understand corrrectly you would still have everything normally done for the SD-DVD plus all of the HD stuff as well. So basically the studio is getting $5 for the HD-DVD version plus the added cost (may not be significant, I don't know) of the disc itself? I thought the studios were backing the HD formats as a move back up on the profit curve that normally occurs with new technologies. This would seem to nullify any hope for greater profitability from HD formats. If the idea is to then make it up on volume by having this replace the SD-DVD format, I think you would then get the Feds or at least some class action attorneys involved as that would likely be seen as illegal combination pricing where you force a consumer to buy a product they don't want/need in order to get what they want. The only way to avoid that would be to price it the same as the SD-DVD.

I apologize if I am missing something here but it does sound like a great idea for those buying the discs.

Here is what we have been told concerning both HD DVD and the TL formats:

1. Because HD DVD is based on the "same" technology as DVD - the cost to make HD DVD's is not that much different than DVD's.

2. The TL HD DVD will add a "small" increase in the manufacturing cost.

I really don't want to hijack this thread Lee, and I know you are passionate about this issue, but......

if DVD isn't getting studios the money they want, How is manufacturing a "slightly" more expensive disc, along with an HD encode, an HD audio encode, assumed additional PiP tracks, and only charging "slightly" more for it going to help?

So we will see Uni, and Para new releases sitting next to Sony, Fox, Disney new releases and costing $5 more?

How about Warner new releases? They will be sitting there for $5 more than the normal DVD release. Why would a current DVD owner buy the 1 for $5 more when all they have is a dvd player? "To be future proof" just doesnt cut it IMO.

And then you have the issue of the studios buying in right? Would they rather sell their millions of dvds along with a token number of HD DVDs or sell it all in 1? Well, I guess if they are $5 more x 1 million discs that will be smart so I digress on that :).

But it all comes down to costs. I just find it hard to imagine that they can get the price that low considering how much more combo discs are than normal DVDs.

And it still seems that it would be falsely inflating the HD DVD sales number by ALOT.

Sorry for the rant.

2 formats could survive for a while, but barely, I think.

HDM in 2 forms - - wouldn't that end up an "HD laserdisc" situation? Meaning it never gets full consumer adoption - just esoteric, tech-savvy people that are a small fraction of a market both sides want to control.

Then 2-3 yrs down the road, a new single HD format (holographic, perhaps) shows up to finally replace good old DVD & HDDVD/BD? (total conjecture, of course).

If a replacement for SD DVD is the goal, it needs to be ONE replacement. 2 formats co-existing (and even all studios but Sony supporting both) will lead to a slow, sad death to HDM in it's current form.

Game platforms can coexist. Gamers either get multiple systems, or go with the one that has the games/features they prefer. Movie watchers/buyers--the REAL target audience for HDM--are gonna want ONE player, ONE type of media and EVERY movie they desire available to them. When I say movie watchers/buyers, I mean the mass market, not early adopters/HD geeks.

Yeah it doesnt work both ways.........:rolleyes:
Missed the point!!!!!:p

I really don't want to hijack this thread Lee, and I know you are passionate about this issue, but......

You know me well:D

if DVD isn't getting studios the money they want, How is manufacturing a "slightly" more expensive disc, along with an HD encode, an HD audio encode, assumed additional PiP tracks, and only charging "slightly" more for it going to help?

Advertising + Marketing + $5.00 increase could add considerable profit to a BB studio release . . . 6 million DVD's in the first week for a BB title adds $30 million gross.

So we will see Uni, and Para new releases sitting next to Sony, Fox, Disney new releases and costing $5 more?

How about Warner new releases? They will be sitting there for $5 more than the normal DVD release. Why would a current DVD owner buy the 1 for $5 more when all they have is a dvd player? "To be future proof" just doesnt cut it IMO.

It is ALL about future proofing. The consumer has to believe that HD DVD will be a viable format to replace/augment DVD. For $5.00 extra he gets the HD/DVD version. When he gets an HDTV he can spend $199 or less and get a player - he may already have 5 to 10 titles already. And we know that HD DVD players are only going down in price.

So what will the consumers reaction be when he see's Shrek 3 for $17.99 and the HD DVD version at $19.99 versus a TL Twin for $22.99?

And then you have the issue of the studios buying in right? Would they rather sell their millions of dvds along with a token number of HD DVDs or sell it all in 1? Well, I guess if they are $5 more x 1 million discs that will be smart so I digress on that :).

:D

But it all comes down to costs. I just find it hard to imagine that they can get the price that low considering how much more combo discs are than normal DVDs.

You are comparing todays Combo pricing to "tomorrows" Combo pricing. 300 has done about 150,000 on HD DVD? What about if the production run was 10 million HD DVD Combo's and 500,000 BD's?

And it still seems that it would be falsely inflating the HD DVD sales number by ALOT.

:D . . . I believe by now, the HD DVD PG have about had it with Nielsen. Best way to get rid of the "bragging" rights will be to "upset the apple cart."

Sorry for the rant.

Rant away! Good thoughtful discussion happening here:)

I don't think it'll be as much as $5, Lee.

People say, "Well, if the studios offer the TL-Twin, with both DVD and HD DVD, how does that help them replace DVDs, which are now as low as $5 apiece in WM and other retailers? They'll just be replacing lost cost DVDs with lost cost HD DVDs."

No.

NEW DVD releases run as much as $19.99 to $29.99. Both NEW releases AND Catalog titles can be released for the first time (new) or AGAIN (catalog) on the TL-Twin for that same $19.99 to $29.99. Nobody is going to buy Shrek 1 anymore for much more than ten bucks. But they probably would double dip if it was re-released in TL-Twin version for $14.95 to $19.95, with both DVD and HD DVD on a single one-sided disc!

I disagree. If all studios were neutral, we would have the same encodes on both formats, and PiP on both. What is the point of 2 formats when they both are EXACTLY the same?

There never was a point over having two formats, as far as the customer is concerned. The whole reason for this is corporate control, not as a benefit to us.

I really don't want to hijack this thread Lee, and I know you are passionate about this issue, but......

if DVD isn't getting studios the money they want, How is manufacturing a "slightly" more expensive disc, along with an HD encode, an HD audio encode, assumed additional PiP tracks, and only charging "slightly" more for it going to help?

So we will see Uni, and Para new releases sitting next to Sony, Fox, Disney new releases and costing $5 more?

How about Warner new releases? They will be sitting there for $5 more than the normal DVD release. Why would a current DVD owner buy the 1 for $5 more when all they have is a dvd player? "To be future proof" just doesnt cut it IMO.

And then you have the issue of the studios buying in right? Would they rather sell their millions of dvds along with a token number of HD DVDs or sell it all in 1? Well, I guess if they are $5 more x 1 million discs that will be smart so I digress on that :).

But it all comes down to costs. I just find it hard to imagine that they can get the price that low considering how much more combo discs are than normal DVDs.

And it still seems that it would be falsely inflating the HD DVD sales number by ALOT.

Sorry for the rant.

Good discussion. But one of the things I think you guys are overlooking is that you assume there's just one SKU of an SD DVD.

There's not. A lot of titles are released day and date with a basic (cheap) single disc version at 14/19.99 and a special/collectors/ultimate/unrated two disc set at 29.99.

These things must sell, because the studios keep making them. And that's were I think the market for HDM is.

Cae in point: Transformers came out in three flavors: single disc SD for 19.99,
two disc collector's SD edition for 29.99, and HD for 29.99 (on the BD side, Die Hard IV is out the same way, with the unrated SD cut clocking in at 29.99.

We know Transformers sold 8.3 million in SD the first week. How many of these were the special editions? 10%? 20%? That's 800,000-1.6 million right there (seriously, does anyone have this figure? Lee?)

Now, from my perspective it's an easy jump for Paramount to eliminate the special SD SKU and make it a combo/hybrid with HD at the same price. The client base is there already at that price point, so they're just adding value.

Watch what happens with Star Trek TOS. If it hits Paramounts projections, I see this as very likely for next year's releases.

And there goes the Nielsen debate...

Like millions of others, my wife and I will be hitting the road to visit some friends for Thanksgiving in a few hours.

I want to take this opportunity to wish EVERYONE a safe and happy Thanksgiving--rdjam, woodshed, Beatboy77, Kosty, Lee, Amir, and so on.

We should all give thanks that we tussle and argue over something so meaningless as the differences between two HD formats!

We are truly blessed if that is all we have to worry about!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING ALL!!:)

Cae in point: Transformers came out in three flavors: single disc SD for 19.99,
two disc collector's SD edition for 29.99, and HD for 29.99 (on the BD side, Die Hard IV is out the same way, with the unrated SD cut clocking in at 29.99.

We know Transformers sold 8.3 million in SD the first week. How many of these were the special editions? 10%? 20%? That's 800,000-1.6 million right there (seriously, does anyone have this figure? Lee?)

Now, from my perspective it's an easy jump for Paramount to eliminate the special SD SKU and make it a combo/hybrid with HD at the same price. The client base is there already at that price point, so they're just adding value.


Exactly. This is the best spot at least initially for the use of Hybrid disks. Add value to standard dvd which accd to reports of some flagging dvd sales could use a boost in interest while also providing a boost to HDM.

Sir Howard Stringer
The price of Blu-ray player has recently gone down (look for those Black Friday specials), but still remain higher than their HD DVD counterparts. Stringer said not to expect prices to drop any further at this time, but added, "[Blu-ray] isn't the cheaper format, but it is the better format.

No shame at all here, and there should be; "look for those "Black Friday specials." So you can take a 1.0 player of our hands for $200 more than HD DVD with none of the features?

I wish TOSHIBA would brace-up and holler BS some time in the face of erroneous clams put out by these guys.

Sam:

A personal thank you for your well wishes. And may I wish you and everyone here at AVS, a very safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving Holiday.

The big "pig out" starts in about 24 hours!:D

*Lee looking in his closet* . . . "now where did I put my fat man pants?"

No shame at all here, and there should be; "look for those "Black Friday specials." So you can take a 1.0 player of our hands for $200 more than HD DVD with none of the features?

I wish TOSHIBA would brace-up and holler BS some time in the face of erroneous clams put out by these guys.

You know, if you went format neutral, those comments from folks you don't even know wouldn't even bother you enough to think about, let alone take the time to post about.....

If the studios also feel that things are approaching a stalemate I would expect some rather dramatic action in the next six months, one way or another.

Retailers won't tolerate stocking 2 copies of thousands of titles and if all things are "equal" in a stalemate situation the cheaper technology should eventually "win".

I disagree. If all studios were neutral, we would have the same encodes on both formats, and PiP on both. What is the point of 2 formats when they both are EXACTLY the same?

I don't whether you were serious or not. However, if they were truly EXACTLY the same then we should be able to play both regardless of the player we choose to own, right ?. Cool, that means the war is over and there's no need for fanboyism anymore. Rejoice! :D

I'm fine with co-existing formats so long as there is nearly complete studio neutrality. :cool:

Have any studios been asked this question yet about TL Discs?

Are there any more HD-DVD meeting type venues where this question can be asked?

Have any studios been asked this question yet about TL Discs?

Are there any more HD-DVD meeting type venues where this question can be asked?

It's a bit naive to assume that the average consumer or even well placed insiders can learn about the machinations of the studios.

Remember that when the Paramount bombshell dropped it was a shock even to those folks at Paramount who were working on the promotions and ads for Top Gun and Transformers.

If anything is being planned for a shift from any studios we won't know about it until the last possible minute.

Have any studios been asked this question yet about TL Discs?

Are there any more HD-DVD meeting type venues where this question can be asked?

:D:D:D . . . CES 2008

:D:D:D . . . CES 2008

Yes, that is the most likely time that the public would find something out. At the end of the day it's not Sony thinking it's a stalemate or Toshiba thinking it's a stalemate that will light a fire........ it's the studio heads feeling that it's a stalemate that could cause a tidal shift. So far we've seen no indication that studios actually feel this way... although Warner has hinted at it.

2 formats could survive for a while, but barely, I think.

HDM in 2 forms - - wouldn't that end up an "HD laserdisc" situation? Meaning it never gets full consumer adoption - just esoteric, tech-savvy people that are a small fraction of a market both sides want to control.

Suits me down to the ground!

Steve W

Apathy goes hand in hand with a crappy economy IMO.

Actually apathy goes hand in hand with confusion and complete satisfaction with "HD" from their DVD.:(

I think co-existence is great. Now if we could just see an end to studio exclusivity, it would be perfect.

Strangely, this would in effect eliminate the reason for two formats. If you could get everything on one format then one would eventually take over. Thats where disc pricing would reign supreme.

Actually apathy goes hand in hand with confusion and complete satisfaction with "HD" from their DVD.:(

I used to believe that but I'm not so sure any more. If Toshiba proved anything with their $99 HD-A2 promotion at Wally World, it's that Joe Public is more than willing to jump into HDM if the price is right.

Remember, they sold 90K in a weekend and sales have remained strong since.

The videogame example is probably not a good analogy. I am less familiar with the current xbox 360 vs wii vs ps3... but I'll go back a few years to an example I can state with more incite.

Remember the days when it was nintendo vs sega? Both consoles were comparable quality and enjoyability. The key gaming difference was Nintendo had the mario stuff and Sega had the Sonic stuff. Most of the other games were available for both consoles. So once you decided Mario vs Sonic, the rest took care of itself.

This is not what is going on with HD DVD vs Blu ray. Lots of good movies coming out on both sides exclusively. And unlike a video game where you could only get Sonic by playing the videogame... movies come out in theatres and on satellite/cable/OTA... so the HD DVD and Blu ray are also competing to some extent with the other avenues people have to watch HD.

As a consumer, I was perfectly happy not buying HD at all while the prices on the hardware were high... but the recent deals on HD DVD made it easier to pick a side. Now that I have picked, I can buy HD DVD movies and anything that is only Blu ray I can watch on satellite. Not quite as good as Blu ray quality, but a lot "free-er" on satellite that I am already paying for anyway than buying another piece of hardware.

Much like computers, software is going to be where the long-term money is... and not the hardware sales... Even Sony is losing money by not releasing movies like Spider-Man for HD DVD. They could have probably doubled their sales if it were available on Blu ray and HD DVD... and once I have a DVD player of some format or another in my hands that's all the hardware money they get from me for a while anyway.

So whichever format wins... I think one format has to win in order for the whole endeavor to be ultimately profitable. Whether it is HD DVD or Blu ray, I just can't see both surviving for an extended period in competition.

Just in case everyone has forgotten. Here are the markets that Sony is trying to control with BD:

1. Gaming
2. Home Video (playback and record)
3. Pro/Broadcast Video
4. Disc Replication
5. Enterprise

I used to believe that but I'm not so sure any more. If Toshiba proved anything with their $99 HD-A2 promotion at Wally World, it's that Joe Public is more than willing to jump into HDM if the price is right.

Remember, they sold 90K in a weekend and sales have remained strong since.

In November of 06 DVD players sold were 2,673,950 (yearly total for 06 was 19,788,279 ). 90K is not even a drop in a large swimming pool. Also many were sold to people who bought then as up converting HD players (not knowing or understanding the difference).

Retailers won't tolerate stocking 2 copies of thousands of titles and if all things are "equal" in a stalemate situation the cheaper technology should eventually "win".
They in some cases stock 3 copies from a single title, Full Screen, Widescreen and Special edition (not counting HD).

In November of 06 DVD players sold were 2,673,950 (yearly total for 06 was 19,788,279 ). 90K is not even a drop in a large swimming pool. Also many were sold to people who bought then as up converting HD players (not knowing or understanding the difference).

How do you know that people bought them as upconverting players? I know many people who tried and failed to get the HD-A2 at WalMart that day for $99 and they ALL knew exactly what it was, an HD DVD player.

They in some cases stock 3 copies from a single title, Full Screen, Widescreen and Special edition (not counting HD).

Having slaved away the first half of my 20's in a retail job and rising up through the ranks I can assure you that retailers are not happy at all with the current situation.

Additionally they usually do NOT stock three copies of a title. A quick perusal of the aisles will demonstrate that most catalogs are only stocked in one version. A special version will be released and after sell through they will just continue to sell the regular catalog version.

The problem only gets worse as the number of titles increase.

Retailers make very tiny margins on DVD software, but it still draws in the buyers so they are willing to tolerate it.

They also have very precise figures on how much $$$ they need to make per square foot of floor space and I'm sure that they are not thrilled one bit with the prospect of having to turn over even more floor space to the marginally profitable HDM category.

I have been harping on this for 8 months.....

None of them were going anywhere ESPECIALLY if both were profitable. To think otherwise was just short sighted and silly.

IN every other CE market there is more than 1 player. Why would "movies" be any different?

I've felt for some time that capitulation isn't an option thus coexistance is the remaining possibility.

Art

I've felt for some time that capitulation isn't an option thus coexistance is the remaining possibility.

Art

Sure . . . when you have played all the cards in your hand and see that you are still not going to win. Then I agree a stalemate will have to be dealt with.

Has the HD DVD PG got any cards left? Does the BDA? And what are the cards left? Aces or 10's?

I see both HD formats co-existing, too. With the studio support divided like it is today, and no immediate signs of a complete exodus to a single format, our hands are tied. As consumers, we could either:
1. buy a player in one camp with studio support A, B, & C,
2. or buy a player in another camp with studio support D, E, & F,
3. or both 1 & 2 (possibly with a dual format player)
4. live with standard def dvds

Each format has its pros & cons and can give you high quality video and audio.

Unless every studio decides to band together behind a single format, it looks like a dual format future is waiting for us. Let's hope that HDM can survive & thrive. Standard definition dvds are a tough act to follow.

If the studios also feel that things are approaching a stalemate I would expect some rather dramatic action in the next six months, one way or another.

Retailers won't tolerate stocking 2 copies of thousands of titles and if all things are "equal" in a stalemate situation the cheaper technology should eventually "win".

Bingo. Wal-Mart, which I am given to understand controls 40% of the market, is not going to put up with three or more SKUs and the associated shelf space for the same movie very long. Within the year I expect them to force a decision one way or another.

Bingo. Wal-Mart, which I am given to understand controls 40% of the market, is not going to put up with three or more SKUs and the associated shelf space for the same movie very long.
i don't know if that's entirely accurate. in my experience, as long as something makes them enough money, retailers will find a way to stock it and sell it.

How do you know that people bought them as upconverting players? I know many people who tried and failed to get the HD-A2 at WalMart that day for $99 and they ALL knew exactly what it was, an HD DVD player.

Okay for the sake of argument lets say only 1 was sold as an up converter and 89,999 were sold as true HD DVD players. This is still not a single drop in DVD's large swimming pool.;)

Like millions of others, my wife and I will be hitting the road to visit some friends for Thanksgiving in a few hours.

I want to take this opportunity to wish EVERYONE a safe and happy Thanksgiving--rdjam, woodshed, Beatboy77, Kosty, Lee, Amir, and so on.

We should all give thanks that we tussle and argue over something so meaningless as the differences between two HD formats!

We are truly blessed if that is all we have to worry about!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING ALL!!:)

Here Here Sam, Happy ThanksGiving to to you andyour family and everyone at AVS. When we sit down and eat tomorrow lets rememebr what a great country we live in and the freedom we have to agree to disagree, God Bless America.

This from BD.com:



Josh is saying "with The Hollywood Reporter" but I can't find it:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/index.jsp

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3ie3ee16106869ea720bef9b3771c93cf1

Just in case everyone has forgotten. Here are the markets that Sony is trying to control with BD:

1. Gaming
2. Home Video (playback and record)
3. Pro/Broadcast Video
4. Disc Replication
5. Enterprise

And what is Msoft and Toshiba trying to control?

Okay for the sake of argument lets say only 1 was sold as an up converter and 89,999 were sold as true HD DVD players. This is still not a single drop in DVD's large swimming pool.;)

100% true. But it did add over 20% to the install base of HD DVD players

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3ie3ee16106869ea720bef9b3771c93cf1


Thank you:)

And what is Msoft and Toshiba trying to control?

Toshiba:

1. Home video market - the encumbent

Microsoft:

1. Enterprise - but not the physical media for backups and software
2. Gamming
3. Home Video through DNL's

Toshiba:

1. Home video market - the encumbent

Microsoft:

1. Enterprise - but not the physical media for backups and software
2. Gamming
3. Home Video through DNL's

So really one is just as bad as the other when it comes down to it. What's the point?

Here Here Sam, Happy ThanksGiving to to you andyour family and everyone at AVS. When we sit down and eat tomorrow lets rememebr what a great country we live in and the freedom we have to agree to disagree, God Bless America.
And how many of us will struggle with SD Football at the relative's *yuck*!!!

So really one is just as bad as the other when it comes down to it. What's the point?

The point is that Sony is looking to control 5 markets with a single product . . . BD

I was pointing this out.:)

We are not discussing good or bad . . . just the facts.

So really one is just as bad as the other when it comes down to it. What's the point?

Bad? nobody is bad. it's all business....

And how many of us will struggle with SD Football at the relative's *yuck*!!!

Funny you should mention Football . . . and HD

Study By Motorola - Football Fans Prefer To Watch Football At Home In HD - Rather Than Go To A Game:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/football111407.htm

Happy Holidays :)