The players that Walmart sell don't support 1080p playback. The A2-A3 only do 1080i.

Same for Venturer player at under $200 at "list price".

Oh, BTW: how many TVs has Wal-Mart sold that accept a 1080p input?

The reality is most (recent) HDTVs display 1080p even though many of them don't accept anything beyond a 1080i input. Why is that? Because not a single broadcaster, IPTV, cable system or satellite company in the US delivers a 1080p signal.

And, as a recent AVS Forum meet proved, in a properly calibrated test, no one can actually tell the difference between a 1080i or 1080p signal delivered in "converted" or "direct" mode to an identical 1080p HDTV.

here's an idea. The next studio with a blockbuster hit in the theaters, when it is DVD release time, only releases in HD. What would happen?

That's not the point. You don't start with Transformers. You start with Star Trek: TOS, Season One.

In other words -- EXACTLY as they did in the transition from LP to CD. It begins by introducing the new blockbusters in the new format with the old format; then you move the older catalog titles to the new format as you allow the catalog titles in the old format to go out of print; and then you bring in more new format titles of both catalog and new blockbusters; and once the market for the new format is big enough, you exploit the back catalog.

It has worked before. It will work again.

That's not the point. You don't start with Transformers. You start with Star Trek: TOS, Season One.

In other words -- EXACTLY as they did in the transition from LP to CD. It begins by introducing the new blockbusters in the new format with the old format; then you move the older catalog titles to the new format as you allow the catalog titles in the old format to go out of print; and then you bring in more new format titles of both catalog and new blockbusters; and once the market for the new format is big enough, you exploit the back catalog.

It has worked before. It will work again.

But what you are describing has already happened. DVD is a mature saturated market.

It past the sale of VHS in 2003. Then it peaked in 2005 - and since then it is going down hill. Everyone HAS their choosen catalog titles on DVD.

I don't know about you but NEVER did I plug a device in using either composite or S-Video and either Analog or Digital Audio and have an issue.

Well, I have never plugged an HDMI player into an HDMI TV and had an issue with video or sound. Lots of times with DVI to HDMI, yes. But HDMI to HDMI, no. It's a heck of a lot easier plugging one cable in, instead of five. 90% of consumers are going to be plugging a player into the TV ... not through 7.1 speakers and an AV console. HDMI is a simpler solution than anything we have seen since coax-to-coax. And ... it works. :)

But what you are describing has already happened. DVD is a mature saturated market.

Lee, sorry to break it to you ... times change. New consumers enter the market. Not everyone has seen Citizen Kane. Lawrence of Arabia. Top Gun. Goldfinger. Golden Eye. The Big Chill. Sixteen Candles. Amadeus. Manhattan.

The DVD market is NOT saturated. There are a LOT of movies not in "active" release. Re-furbishing and re-cycling them for HD DVD (ooops! hidef) can be a very profitable, long term business. The opportunity exists: it remains for the studios to exploit it efficiently.

popcorn, you overestimate the power of these old releases. I don't see a mass rush to purchase all these old titles on HD, your're dreaming.
And Gordon's right. J6P is not savvy enough to want to do FW updates all the time. And having a ethernet port near the player? Please, with all the wireless being used, they will all have to buy wireless adapters to go with the machine. Some of you guys need to get out of HT Geekdom.

There ya go...one of thousands of examples I'm sure of folks who don't have a CLUE what HDM is..and even worse think that they HAVE it and plan to buy one of the "hi-def" discs since their player is "hi-def".

Bet we see a ton of HDM return after the holidays..especially HDM media.

Yes, the CE's cooked their own goose by pushing upconverting DVD players so hard, resulting in the mass confusion of upconverting players with HDM players. And it's even funnier that most displays in the past few years have fine upscalers anyways, obviating upscaling capabilities in the player.

re: HDM disc returns.

The problem there is, the people making the mistake won't know it until they open the package and put the HDM disc in their upconverting player.

I don't know any store that takes returns on opened disc media.

Even if the customer claims "defective", all they will get it a replacement disc.

The only way out would be to return the unopened replacement disc, but then they might only get store credit.

Either way, there might be a *lot* of HDM returns, declared defects, and maybe lawsuits on the UP/HDM confusion issue.

The brick and mortars do nothing to ameliorate the confusion, either. This weekend's CC paper circular shows several HDM players prominently on page 16, with "1080i/p" DVD players right underneath the HDM players on the same page, appearing to be low cost 1080i/p HDM alternatives.

popcorn, you overestimate the power of these old releases. I don't see a mass rush to purchase all these old titles on HD, your're dreaming.
And Gordon's right. J6P is not savvy enough to want to do FW updates all the time. And having a ethernet port near the player? Please, with all the wireless being used, they will all have to buy wireless adapters to go with the machine. Some of you guys need to get out of HT Geekdom.

Good point re: required F/W updates. If HDM players of either flavor don't stabilize soon, halting the required updates just to play new discs, gaining traction will become increasingly difficult among non-enthusiasts.

No successful video/movie format can *require* a connection and/or set top updates in order to play new releases in the long run, IMO. A successful format must be able to be untethered permanently, with assurance that any release bought anywhere going forward will play properly. Will cars need their HDM players periodically connected to do updates? What about battery powered portable disc players?

Someone compared the updates issue to satellite boxes. Even if one accepts updates (phone home and/or encryption card updates) on sat boxes, comparing sat boxes to movie disc players is apples & oranges. A sat box is an ongoing paid service. A disc media player is not.

A big issue: is it right for a company to extend their span of control after the point of purchase? What if cars required EEC firmware updates periodically in order for your car to function (bona-fide product design/safety recalls notwithstanding)? You buy the car- its yours. Modify in any way imaginable, within public road safety limits. If you never intend to use it on public roads, do *any* mod imaginable.

This acceptance of periodic mandated updates is a dangerous media trend, a trend motivated primarily by the DRM controls they wish to enforce. I have never bought into any service or product that *requires* contact with the maker after the point of sale. A USB port to update firmware to correct known design issues or add wanted functionality? Sure, my Olevia 42" LCD panel has that. But the difference is, it is under my complete control and is not mandated.

I could see wifi becoming standard in most HDM set tops, but that's beside the point. The broadband connection should be there for *optional* entertainment related content, not continuously *required* changes to what you've purchased already, and/or a conduit to push ads to you, and/or providing post-purchase "strings" to manipulate and control your property after the sale.

Rgb's right on. Pushing upconverting players just makes people think they have HD when they don't.

Lee, sorry to break it to you ... times change. New consumers enter the market. Not everyone has seen Citizen Kane. Lawrence of Arabia. Top Gun. Goldfinger. Golden Eye. The Big Chill. Sixteen Candles. Amadeus. Manhattan.

The DVD market is NOT saturated. There are a LOT of movies not in "active" release. Re-furbishing and re-cycling them for HD DVD (ooops! hidef) can be a very profitable, long term business. The opportunity exists: it remains for the studios to exploit it efficiently.

Well Popcorn - why not tell all of us about the best selling Catalog title to date . . . with over 3 milion HDM players in the wild. Don't forget to quote the sales number with it.;)

It's a well kept HT secret that deinterlaced, color corrected, time based corrected, de-analog-noised, ffdShow sharpen-filtered, Lanzcos-scaled, 1080p upconverted, HiFi DPL-IIx-processed VHS source is the Ultimate in the home theater experience ;)

...waittaminute- if you did all those things, played from an industrial grade SVHS VCR like the Panasonic AG-5700, VHS might actually be passable.


If you're using S-video!

Hehehe

The Nielsens! For the week of 1/07/08 . . .

-10%/-5%

:D:p:D

That will make for an interesting Prediction Thread for the week :)

Brandon

Brandon:

This is a woefully pessimistic view. The average (aka J6P) shopper isn't that stupid.


I'll grant you that it's a pessimistic view...just another way of saying I am speaking to the extreme on one side of the coin. However I do truly believe that a majority (51% or more) of shoppers over the past year believe that if they have an HDTV they are watching things in high definition. Of course my evidence is anecdotal, but the only friends/family I know who have HD sources are people that I've personally educated them on it (except my uncle who is a geek himself).

It sounds like you're saying that while I think they are just uninformed (I don't think they're all just "stupid") for the most part, you think it's a conscious effort to forgoe upgrading to HD sources. I'd disagree, but it's all speculation and guessing. The bottom line is that for each person that consciously decides he doesn't need an HD source (like blu-ray, hd dvd, or hd cable), there are also people who do so from an ignorant position: "I don't need blu-ray or HD DVD because I have a 1080p upconverting DVD player which is the same."

Emphasis on it being the same, since there are obviously well-informed people who don't yet feel buying into the HD formats is worth it from their upconverting dvd player, for whatever reasons.

Brandon

However I do truly believe that a majority (51% or more) of shoppers over the past year believe that if they have an HDTV they are watching things in high definition.
Brandon

As they should...

I don't think it speaks to the stupidity of the consumer at all, but to that of the industry. Why would the industry expect a consumer to get less than ever did. The definition of 'TV' to the consumer includes (and has always included) the tuner for what it's touted to display - just as it should be. As usual, the industry couldn't get their act together properly and sold HD monitors - calling them HD TVs; and still do. Until very recently, everything the consumer bought has been SD TVs and HD monitors - dupped into thinking something different - assuming the industry wouldn't be so stupid as to not include the basic tuning device for what we were supposed to watch. Especially since the first HD sources were driven as OTA sources - not cable - and certainly not HDM...

My conclusion is the industry is dumber than any consumer ever was.

ken

If you're using S-video!

Brandon

But of course- I wouldn't use any other connection from my Panasonic AG-5700 ;)

Beautiful SVHS deck, btw. I use it to convert VHS tapes (hardly any SVHS) to DVD on my HTPC.

I wonder how consumers (including me!) are going to react to the rampant price cutting if it doesn't continue.

DVDs are now $5, 50" plasmas are $999, 46" Aquos 1080p displays are $1200, HD DVD players are $99 with 5 to 10 free movies, etc. etc.
Try again. DVDs are not $5. Yes, $5 DVDs exist; but that's not the market price. The studios, and everyone connected to the content delivery chain, cannot survive on that price point.

Same with HD DVD players at $99 (which is possible) which include 10 free movies (which is not sustainable).

The dumbest turn this "format war" has taken is giving consumers mini-libraries of discs in exchange for buying players. The world doesn't work that way; there is no good business model which flows from this. It's one thing to include a "demo disc" or a bonus disc or two to spur sales ... but 5? 10? an MSRP "disc value" more than the player?

There is an eco-system here: players and software. They need each other -- today and into the future and the purchase of one implies a future purchase of the other. Mess synergistic cycle that up -- 1 player, 10 discs -- and you risk messing everything up.

It's a huge problem to solve in 2008 -- and not impossible to do -- but there will be pain, and blood on the floor, before it's all put right again.

Well put, and we don't disagree.

Consumers learn (or perceive) what the value of an item is. I'm shopping for an LCD and it's tough for me to look at 46" models and not think they're overpriced after the $1299 Sharp Aquos sale at CC. It's tough to justify $29.98 for Shrek 3 when the DVD is on sale for $13.49. It's tough to justify $249 for the A3 if you remember the $99 A2 sale.

Well put, and we don't disagree.

Consumers learn (or perceive) what the value of an item is. I'm shopping for an LCD and it's tough for me to look at 46" models and not think they're overpriced after the $1299 Sharp Aquos sale at CC. It's tough to justify $29.98 for Shrek 3 when the DVD is on sale for $13.49. It's tough to justify $249 for the A3 if you remember the $99 A2 sale.

I disagree that there's no business model at $5/disc, particularly for DVD.

The massive amounts of $5 DVD's, including lots of big name catalog titles, in the bins of the Walmarts of the world demonstrate that. They are not sold at a loss.

Also, I've seen lots of $1 DVDs at Walmart- typically B-Movie/ foreign language, and/or out-of-copyright stuff, but they are packaged and sold just like all other DVDs- standard case, color printnd cover, and commercially pressed disc with silk screen art. This tells me that the physical production, shipping and selling costs are below $1 for any DVD. Yes, a new release needs to amortize recent film production costs and the DVD mastering/authoring technicians, but for the numbers of discs sold, these costs are quickly spread over the number of units, plus ticket sales at the theater, plus cross licensing and ancillary marketing deals (toys, etc).

My belief is that a profit would be made even if every DVD, including new releases, were sold at $5 (2-3 disc sets max), though I can't substantiate this other than the ubiquitous evidence of $5 and $1 DVD's.

I disagree that there's no business model at $5/disc, particularly for DVD.

[...]

My belief is that a profit would be made even if every DVD, including new releases, were sold at $5 (2-3 disc sets max), though I can't substantiate this other than the ubiquitous evidence of $5 and $1 DVD's.

I think you have a misunderstanding of two basic concepts:

1) Amortization of the inital capital outlay, and
2) Time value of money (i.e., discount rate).

The problem with your view is this: If the studios were to release all of their hot, new products at $5 or less, they wouldn't sell any more total titles than they do with the current model. They would sell the total amount (saturate the market) much faster, however, due to the reduced price. This causes two effects: 1) It creates a bigger risk in the inital pressing quantities. Now, they do the inital day/date release at full price, and use thevolumes from that to determine how many more to press and ship out for the ongoing flow business. With a low introductory rice, they would have to press enough to cover a tremendous potential demand - this means that they might get stuck with a bunch of discs that don't sell. 2) Although they might have some smalle amount of profit at $5, they - and the retailer - are forgoing the higher profits available from those buyers who will pay the higher price.

Think about it this way: let's say that the marginal cost per disc is $1. Let's also assume that the disc will ultimately sell 200,000 copies. Now, let's postulate that 40,000 of those purchasers are willing to pay list at $20; 80,000 are willing to pay $12, 50,000 are willing to pay $8, and 30,000 won't touch it until it's in the $5 bin.

In the first week of release, the assumable profit from the $5 plan is simple to calculate: $4 profit for 200,000 discs = $800,000. That's all you get, but you get it almost immediately.

Now, let's look at the other model: In the first week of release, the list pice buyers will produce $19 profit for 40,000 discs, or $760,000. Now, a few months down the line - let's call it 6 months - you get another group of buyers at $12. They produce $11 profit for 80,000 discs, or $880,000. Now a year after release, when we're down to the $7.99 point, we have another $7 profit for 50,000 discs, or $350,000. Then, there's the cut-out bin, which yields the final $4 profit on 30,000 discs - another $120K.

So, our total net profits for distributor, retailer and studio = $760K + $880K + $350K + $120K = $2,100,000.

Now, it IS true that this was acquired over time vs. the low-price model being acquired immediately, but I don't believe there's corporate discount rate that comes anywhere close to making the first proposal a better deal.

Truth is, the media companies are very, very good at maximizing their profits with respect to capital outlay and timing. If there were a business model that would make a bunch more money, you can bet that they would be using it.

Would they make a profit at $5? Yes, they would. However, they would not be making the most profit they could; their shareholders would pitch them out into the street and sue for gross negligence.

Plus, even if the cost to manufacture discs is very low, it's not as if the movies grow on trees. You have to consider the millions of dollars it costs to produce one in the first place. Many movies don't turn a profit in theaters.

Those $5 discs used to cost around $20 each, and it's because they've made enough profit on those early sales that they can lower the price as demand gets lower.

?

There is TV and there is HDTV

There is DVD and there is HD DVD

Exactly!

If there was no Blu-ray, there would be no confusion.

People would just know that HD DVD means Hi-def DVD's. You add Blu-ray and people are confused.

Way to go SONY!:D

The reason for all the updates is because both formates were rushed out to the public. Blu-ray more so than HD DVD. Why?? I hate to repeat myself but..................

It's SONY's Fault, yet again.

Be honest Sony has completely screwed up this whole deal!!

More fuel for the fire, though I think this piece is pretty good about explaining the issues with HDm vs upconverting players:

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071212/BIZ04/712120415

• "Toshiba DVD player with HD upconversion SD-6000 ($79.99): Those with a high-def TV most likely have looked into using a high-def video player. Like the Betamax-VHS war of the 1970s and early '80s, today it is Blu-ray versus HD-DVD. With few of these players less than $300 (dual-players top $999) and no guarantee which format will reign supreme, the smarter play might be to hold off as prices fall and hope studios begin releasing films and TV shows on both formats until one wins over.

But for now, with the HDTV in the family room, and the stacks of not-so-old DVDs collecting dust, why not give them a rebirth in pseudo high-def with a cheap HD upconversion DVD player -- this gizmo plays a DVD at its full picture potential. A handful of electronics makers, such as Toshiba, make a good player. Find one that takes your DVD and upconverts it to 1080p resolution. Granted, it's not the quality of Blu-ray or HD-DVD, but were you really planning on buying your video collection again? "

, 46" Aquos 1080p displays are $1200, .


Huh?? My CC and BB have them for double that.

More fuel for the fire, though I think this piece is pretty good about explaining the issues with HDm vs upconverting players:

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071212/BIZ04/712120415

• "Toshiba DVD player with HD upconversion SD-6000 ($79.99): Those with a high-def TV most likely have looked into using a high-def video player. Like the Betamax-VHS war of the 1970s and early '80s, today it is Blu-ray versus HD-DVD. With few of these players less than $300 (dual-players top $999) and no guarantee which format will reign supreme, the smarter play might be to hold off as prices fall and hope studios begin releasing films and TV shows on both formats until one wins over.

But for now, with the HDTV in the family room, and the stacks of not-so-old DVDs collecting dust, why not give them a rebirth in pseudo high-def with a cheap HD upconversion DVD player -- this gizmo plays a DVD at its full picture potential. A handful of electronics makers, such as Toshiba, make a good player. Find one that takes your DVD and upconverts it to 1080p resolution. Granted, it's not the quality of Blu-ray or HD-DVD, but were you really planning on buying your video collection again? "

Another nail being made for the HDM coffin it seems...

A few days ago a person asked if are store had the four outlet to single phone jack adaptor for his aging phone lines.
I saw them once. Bascily 1/8 inch round holes in a square shape. The phone lines would plug into them. I think to were for the phone itself and to were for the higher voltage ringer on older routery dial phones.
All I could say is they don't make those anymore. All I can recomend is calling the phone compneny and have them switched to more moderen wall plates.


When's the last time those were in use?

A few days ago a person asked if are store had the four outlet to single phone jack adaptor for his aging phone lines.
I saw them once. Bascily 1/8 inch round holes in a square shape. The phone lines would plug into them. I think to were for the phone itself and to were for the higher voltage ringer on older routery dial phones.
All I could say is they don't make those anymore. All I can recomend is calling the phone compneny and have them switched to more moderen wall plates.


When's the last time those were in use?

Huh?

You are SO in the mindset of an A/V "Geek" so to speak....you need to pretend you have never been to a HT forum ..maybe at most you see TV ad's or magazine ad's touting HDM....the LAST thing they would be thinking if they wanted an HDM upgrade dvd player is "I have to order upgrade software discs or connect this thing to a phone line just to watch DVD's!!??"

Sure J6P is used to letting Windows do the automatic downloads for him..no biggie...he has a Directv DVR hooked up to the phone but NEVER has to worry about updating..it does it quietly at night ususally.....

Now the HDM world and HDM early adopters are acting like it's totally no big deal for the average mom and pop to get the player hooked up to a phone etc...you honestly think they are going to invest in and mess with a wireless router etc? Come on now...we're talking about just wanting to watch a DVD movie...they don't want to mess with all the updates no matter HOW used to equipment updates they have in their household....they have worry free, update free, plug and play DVD that they love now and any added quirks they will have to deal with (aside from the "war") is just not gonna be their cup of tea IMO.

Again too many of you are SO engrained in this A/V early adopters forum world mindset that you forget what it's like to be an average run of the mill A/V customer...just because it's second nature to YOU to tweak, update, add routers etc, doesn't mean Mom and Pop are gonna want to mess with all the added things you need to watch HDM.

I agree completely...my parents in their 50s have no idea how to update firmware on a CE product. in fact my father couldn't even figure out how to setup a logitech universal remote. I got him a blu ray player...and I'm just waiting for the call from him looking for me to walk him through updating the firmware. In addition most houses aren't ethernet wired - mine was built in '01 and isn't. Without Wifi I need to burn a CD to do a firmware upgrade which is a bit of a PITA...J6P will be put off by this...