Nielsen Prediction Thread for 11/30 (Predictions due Wednesday 11/28) [Text View] - Page 2

Supermans

11-29-07, 08:07 AM

If the 73:27 ends up being true. I cant wait to hear rdjams response to this.

So much for Star Trek being a trump card.

It is obvious based on these numbers that Blu-ray is gaining major momentum leading up to Christmas day. HD-DVD does not have a very good selection of new releases in comparison to Blu-ray this month, even with ID4's delay in my opinion which may affect the numbers. I believe the numbers will be 75:25 in favor of Blu-ray come next week and during Christmas week around 80:20 in favor of Blu-ray...Both formats are on the final stretch of the race and this Christmas may be the deciding factor that causes some major movie studio's to go Blu-ray exclusive. I will predict we will see Universal go format neutral after Christmas in response to these impressive Blu-ray numbers. At that point I then see a domino effect occur with the other remaining movie studio's going the same which would in essence end the format war... This is my first time making predictions and posting in this thread after all these years. It is good to read many of your posts..:)

BuGsArEtAsTy

11-29-07, 08:16 AM

Way, way, WAY off this time. :o

Damn you, misleading Amazon trends! ;)

heatfuego

11-29-07, 08:41 AM

It is obvious based on these numbers that Blu-ray is gaining major momentum leading up to Christmas day. HD-DVD does not have a very good selection of new releases in comparison to Blu-ray this month, even with ID4's delay in my opinion which may affect the numbers. I believe the numbers will be 75:25 in favor of Blu-ray come next week and during Christmas week around 80:20 in favor of Blu-ray...Both formats are on the final stretch of the race and this Christmas may be the deciding factor that causes some major movie studio's to go Blu-ray exclusive. I will predict we will see Universal go format neutral after Christmas in response to these impressive Blu-ray numbers. At that point I then see a domino effect occur with the other remaining movie studio's going the same which would in essence end the format war... This is my first time making predictions and posting in this thread after all these years. It is good to read many of your posts..:)

These numbers are really nothing in the eyes of the studios...100,000 units sold?...please, let's get real people. Many of the recent HD DVD players sold are Christmas gifts and will open after 12-25...I'm living proof of this having 3 gift units in the wait until then...I think Feb-March will be more telling about where numbers are than the rest of this year, also take into account that next year the HD side has not only one more studio on their side in comparison to this year, but also many more new releases in the theaters, possibly more than Blu...I don't think any studio nor Sony/Toshiba company will be going anywhere anytime soon...but you know, this thread is about Nielsen numbers and here is where I stop...let's concentrate on the numbers subject!

Everdog

11-29-07, 08:51 AM

It is obvious based on these numbers that Blu-ray is gaining major momentum leading up to Christmas day. HD-DVD does not have a very good selection of new releases in comparison to Blu-ray this month, even with ID4's delay in my opinion which may affect the numbers. I believe the numbers will be 75:25 in favor of Blu-ray come next week and during Christmas week around 80:20 in favor of Blu-ray...Both formats are on the final stretch of the race and this Christmas may be the deciding factor that causes some major movie studio's to go Blu-ray exclusive. I will predict we will see Universal go format neutral after Christmas in response to these impressive Blu-ray numbers. At that point I then see a domino effect occur with the other remaining movie studio's going the same which would in essence end the format war... This is my first time making predictions and posting in this thread after all these years. It is good to read many of your posts..:)

This just goes to show how a Blockbuster in the right genre can score a big win for one side. Clearly the most important factor in sales right now is having big D&D releases in the right genre (action, cgi, etc). Lately all of these (except Transformers) have been on the Blu side. The good news for HD DVD fans is tha they are weathering the storm. They continue to sell more stand alones, and come next year the blockbuster advantage will switch. It will be interesting to see what happens when all of a sudden the majority of big relases are on the red side.

Right now this advantage greatly favors blu, but it is clear that advantage goes away at the end of December.

Wet1

11-29-07, 08:58 AM

Numbers were leaked by Hollywood Reporter.

Winn and others,

No votes after 5:29 p.m. PT Nov. 28, 2007 should be eligible for this week.

I realize there are a lot of people that don't follow this stuff closely, but there are plenty who do and the info spreads like wildfire. It's simply not fair to anyone to accept votes that was placed after the info was leaked.

Let's keep the shenanigans to a minimum. No harm in not getting a vote placed for the week, but it's ludicrous to include votes that were placed shortly after the info was leaked, especially ones that were miraculously only one point off. This is all for fun, but let's keep it fair to everyone.

Disclosure:
Note that I voted last night around 10 PM ET and didn't even realize the numbers had been leaked since I don't follow this stuff, but I'm perfectly fine with not having my vote count for the reason stated above... In fact I don't want it counted. Then again, it would have hurt my avg. anyway. :D

Rich Peterson

11-29-07, 09:10 AM

Given this wide margin and the likely increased volumes due to Black Friday week, it seems likely that YTD and SI numbers will change also. Guess we'll find out Friday.

Bailey151

11-29-07, 09:19 AM

67:33

plazman

11-29-07, 09:20 AM

Given this wide margin and the likely increased volumes due to Black Friday week, it seems likely that YTD and SI numbers will change also. Guess we'll find out Friday.
If we do end up with a gap between the first alert and overall Neilsen on Friday, then we can infer what the sales ratio are outside of Best Buy, Circuit City and Target (who I believe are in the first alert list).

geko29

11-29-07, 09:26 AM

Let's keep the shenanigans to a minimum. No harm in not getting a vote placed for the week, but it's ludicrous to include votes that were placed shortly after the info was leaked, especially ones that were miraculously only one point off. This is all for fun, but let's keep it fair to everyone.
I said earlier that I had no problem if my vote wasn't counted, because the information was out (even though I didn't read it until after posting). However, I resent being called a liar, and would appreciate an apology. Though I bombed horribly the week Transformers came out (which pretty much guarantees I won't even finish in the top 10), if you look you'll see I've done quite well (never off by more than 4, IIRC, and usually 2 or less) in the strong Blu-Ray release weeks. Including nailing the Spider-Man 3 week.

CochiseGuy

11-29-07, 09:39 AM

If we do end up with a gap between the first alert and overall Neilsen on Friday, then we can infer what the sales ratio are outside of Best Buy, Circuit City and Target (who I believe are in the first alert list).

FWIW, according to the Nielson VideoScan Overview (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=9767608&postcount=1712) PDF, the First Alert Data is released 3 days after the close of the business week (Sunday), so First Alert data is released Wednesdays, at noon. This same First Alert Data is used by HMM in it's weekly magazine is usually available on Nxtbook on Fridays. The "Complete" VideoScan data is not available until 10 days after the close of the week, i.e. - the following Wednesday.

The author of the Hollywood Reporter article reporting the First Alert data is Thomas K. Arnold, who is also the Publisher of HMM. In other words - there will be no difference in the ratios reported yesterday by HR and by HMM on Friday. ;)

haste

11-29-07, 09:43 AM

I'm wondering how many girlfriends and wives are now selecting and buying hi-def titles...

My girlfriend has bought 1/3 of our collection. I have bought the rest. :p

Up to 38 BDs now.

heatfuego

11-29-07, 09:50 AM

HD DVD has 4 weeks to pull off something absolutely unprecedented and spectacular. If not, look for Warner to announce Blu-ray exclusivity in 2008.

The format war is ending before our eyes with Blu-ray becoming the winner.

The entire case for HD DVD rested on the big 4th quarter and they are failing badly.

Warner is well awared of the large amount of HD DVD players being sold...they're also awared that Wal*Mart had a commercial preaching HD DVD as a Christmas gift...Christmas gifts are hardly ever given away before 12-25...if anything, Warner will wait 'till a more defined number, under a more complete data shows, and after the holidays where given players are suddenly opened and playing...don't look before the summer next year for Warner to make any announcements if any.

plazman

11-29-07, 09:54 AM

HD DVD has 4 weeks to pull off something absolutely unprecedented and spectacular. If not, look for Warner to announce Blu-ray exclusivity in 2008.

The format war is ending before our eyes with Blu-ray becoming the winner.

The entire case for HD DVD rested on the big 4th quarter and they are failing badly.
Look for Warners sales ratios closely. Not what Disney and Fox sold. Warner going BD exclusive in 2008 is not even remotely possible now (at this point in time). JMHO ;)

I wasn't aware that HMM reports from First Alert data and not the total Neilsen data. What is the difference between the two? Has anyone seen both and compared them?

Dave Vaughn

11-29-07, 10:10 AM

I can't get into specifics, but the numbers are correct that have been reported as to the sales ratio, but the number that FOX is saying they sold of LFDH is way off. The numbers this week are heavily skewed by promotions, specifically on the Blu side of the aisle. There were promotions from a certain retailer (who is counted in the weekly numbers) to give away a specific Sony title with the purchase of a PS3 and that particular title increased its YTD sales by almost 100%. If you take this one title out of the equation, the numbers would be closer to 69-31, which is still a big win for the BD side.

Plazman brings up a very interesting perspective on the numbers though. If anyone has noticed, Warner has NOT been a part of any of the BOGO free offers, nor have they discounted their HD DVD's. Their biggest HD DVD to date has been 300, which is being given away free with every new HD DVD player sold, so this disc isn't selling anymore at retail (or not in the numbers that it would be if it wasn't being given away). Warner's sales are much closer to 50/50 (still favoring BD though, but at nowhere near a 65-35 mix).

From a PR perspective, BD is doing extremely well right now with these promotions and they are moving a lot of software with them. One good thing about the "war" is that the competition between the two formats have been good for movie collectors, that's for sure!

Everdog

11-29-07, 10:11 AM

Look for Warners sales ratios closely. Not what Disney and Fox sold. Warner going BD exclusive in 2008 is not even remotely possible now (at this point in time). JMHO ;)

Good post. One side may have a week or month where the big exclusives favor them, but those advantages are short lived and temporary. It what happens with the dual format releases that matters.

The other thing is both formats STILL have tiny install bases. We have another year to really see what is going on...and didn;t Warner come out and say that they have no plans change either way in 2008?

BTW, isn't this the first week in awhile that Blu was at or above the 2:1 (67:33) ratio?

Edit: Dave, thank you again for providing us with great information.

phansson

11-29-07, 10:12 AM

Hey Plazman, Did you see the averages on the first page?

PHansson 5.08
Plazman 5.09

I am kicking your #@$!.....:D

Greg Kettell

11-29-07, 10:28 AM

BTW, isn't this the first week in awhile that Blu was at or above the 2:1 (67:33) ratio?

09/30 54/46 66/34 61/39
10/07 68/32 66/34 61/39
10/14 71/29 66/34 61/39
10/21 51/49 65/35 61/39
10/28 55/45 64/36 60/40
11/04 71/29 64/36 61/39
11/11 65/35 65/35 61/39

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 10:33 AM

heatfuego

11-29-07, 10:36 AM

And there were promotions from a certain retailer (who is counted in the weekly numbers) to give away three HD DVD titles (from a list of twenty-three Paramount, Universal and Warner titles) with the purchase of a Toshiba HD-A3, HD-A30 or HD-A35.

Top Gun
Face Off
The Big Lebowski
Pride and Prejudice
Knocked Up
The Shining
Goodfellas
The Last Starfighter
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Phantom of the Opera
Casino
The Fountain
Dragonheart
Meet Joe Black
Rio Bravo
The Searchers
A Clockwork Orange
Hot Fuzz
The Departed
Happy Feet
Eyes Wide Shut
Blades of Glory
Shooter

http://forums.slickdeals.net/showthread.php?t=659181

How much did YTD sales of those titles increase?

If we add up the YTD sales increase of those titles, and subtract the YTD sales increase of the BD title you mention, which is the remainder?

More importantly:

If you take out both parts of the equation, what is the ratio?

Many of those tittles posted above, were also part of the $15 discount during the Wal*Mart 1st black friday...as far as I know, those were not counted on the Neilsen's numbers...so even if they're given away at a later time, many HD DVD owners have them, therefore the sells impact by those HD DVD movies has been greatly altered.

Greg Kettell

11-29-07, 10:36 AM

And there were promotions from a certain retailer (who is counted in the weekly numbers) to give away three HD DVD titles (from a list of twenty-three Paramount, Universal and Warner titles) with the purchase of a Toshiba HD-A3, HD-A30 or HD-A35.

Good points. The giveaways with the HD DVD players may not have boosted a single title's sales much, but they should have assisted the overall sales numbers.

Also, by far the biggest promotion for BD was the Wal*Mart 10 movie giveaway with a PS3, and that wasn't counted in the numbers. If it wasn't for that deal some people likely would have jumped on one of the other PS3 deals instead. One thing I think its clear that Sony sold a boatload of PS3s last weekend.

Finally, I'd say that we have to consider the Star Trek set a bomb of epic proportiions, since it was the first release that was soley a combo. I expected it to do much better, and that's why my guess for this week was off by so much. :(

kkozma

11-29-07, 10:36 AM

Everdog

11-29-07, 10:36 AM

09/30 54/46 66/34 61/39
10/07 68/32 66/34 61/39
10/14 71/29 66/34 61/39
10/21 51/49 65/35 61/39
10/28 55/45 64/36 60/40
11/04 71/29 64/36 61/39
11/11 65/35 65/35 61/39

Thanks, so with the big release advantage and the BOGO sales this quarter, so far 1/2 the time they have not reached the 2:1 ratio.

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 10:36 AM

Plazman brings up a very interesting perspective on the numbers though. If anyone has noticed, Warner has NOT been a part of any of the BOGO free offers, nor have they discounted their HD DVD's.If only that were true. They were included in at least one "Buy 2 get 1 free sale", and had at least one HDM promotion in a major B&M chain. And that's in addition to what Grubert posted.

kitzi

11-29-07, 10:37 AM

Warner's sales are much closer to 50/50 (still favoring BD though, but at nowhere near a 65-35 mix).

Is that 50/50 for all Warner sales or is that just for titles released on both formats?

phansson

11-29-07, 10:38 AM

Well, you can never forget that LFoDH is a movie that hits very squarely at the PS3 demographic.

The demographic for the PS3 is a lot wider than most people give it credit for.

I am 39 years old. I have three good friends that own PS3's. They are 36, 46 and 51. They use them both for game play and Blu Ray playback. The PS3 is not just for 22 year old games anymore.

Also, another interesting note. Wal Mart has a grocery division under the name of "friendly neighborhood market". These outlets usually carry about 40 hot selling dvd's at their customer service counter. I have never seen any HDM offered there, but last week they had the Blu Ray of Live free or Die hard and Die Hard.

Everdog

11-29-07, 10:38 AM

The other major question is. Did those count? Doesn't money have to change hands for something to be considered a sale?

And does anyone believe that last week the PS3s only sold 3x what the Toshibas did? It would be cool if they did, but...

Rich Peterson

11-29-07, 10:40 AM

The numbers this week are heavily skewed by promotions, specifically on the Blu side of the aisle.
Actually, this week had about the fewest promotions for BD software in several weeks. Based on that it would seem previous weeks numbers would have been more skewed by promotions.

Greg Kettell

11-29-07, 10:42 AM

The other major question is. Did those count? Doesn't money have to change hands for something to be considered a sale?

Movies included in the box don't count, movies rung up at the register (even for $0) do.

Everdog

11-29-07, 10:42 AM

If only that were true. They were included in at least one "Buy 2 get 1 free sale", and had at least one HDM promotion in a major B&M chain. And that's in addition to what Grubert posted.

I think Dave meant they have not willingly particpated in a BOGO sale. Store can do whatever they want. It is interesting that Warner recently made the price of discs equal and has tried to stay out of sales favoring either side, and with that, sales have come close to 50:50.

kitzi

11-29-07, 10:44 AM

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 10:55 AM

Is that 50/50 for all Warner sales or is that just for titles released on both formats?

Warner isnt stupid. That said, folks comparing the direct ratios to thump HD DVD chest are forgetting a couple of realistic variables. HD DVD owners are only exposed to select titles. Sure, the number available is comparable because Universal inflated it with aninflux of terrible catalogs over the summer......but the fact that HD DVD owners only have WB, Uni and Paramount to buy from.....whereas BD owners have Sony, Fox, Disney (BVHE, Miramax) Warner, Lionsgate, Starz (horror titles are a niche though so this is very minor) Paramount (for most if its lifetime).....you will naturally see an inclination for people buying movies from a smaller pool in a more rapid fashion than folks with more options, its only natural and its realistic.

Granted, Warner is most like making more money on BD but theyre most assurdely making money on HD DVD as well, thus they are neutral.....warner needs to figure out of they see a benefit for kick starting confident mass adoption of one format...if they choose HD DVD will HD DVD sales make up for th elost BD sales an dinth elong run will HD DVD be prosperous. If they choose BD will it kickstart other companies and will the hesitaters jump in outweighing the profit form HD DVD in the long run.

I doube warne ris too concerned with competitive ratios most like because of the scenerio i listed above about available content. The question now is, can warner make mor emoney in the next 12 months with increased adoption and a more unanimous credible format by giving up one of the formats.

People are so intent on focusing on WB's individual sales when the decision WB may be making is based on future trends based on CE, Hardware (yes PS3 included) and retail......people are looking to teh ratios when i really dont think thats the primary variable.

Grubert

11-29-07, 10:55 AM

Plazman brings up a very interesting perspective on the numbers though. If anyone has noticed, Warner has NOT been a part of any of the BOGO free offers, nor have they discounted their HD DVD's.

Yes, they have discounted their HD DVDs. I should know - I bought Blood Diamond, Road Warrior and Forbidden Planet HD DVD in a 3-for-2 late August.

And last week they had a 3-4-2 for HD DVD and Blu-ray on amazon as well which included Warner titles:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Amazon/High-Def_Retailing/Amazon_Offers_New_3-For-2_Deal_on_Blu-ray,_HD_DVD_Discs/1200

Their biggest HD DVD to date has been 300, which is being given away free with every new HD DVD player sold, so this disc isn't selling anymore at retail (or not in the numbers that it would be if it wasn't being given away).

Weren't 90,000 A2 players sold last Nov. 2? Those new owners don't have 300. Neither do buyers of the Xbox add-on (though they probably have Heroes ;) ).

Warner's sales are much closer to 50/50 (still favoring BD though, but at nowhere near a 65-35 mix).

When you say "Warner's sales" you're including titles that have not been released on BD yet, aren't you?

Batman Begins, V for Vendetta and the Matrix packs have sold over 100K on HD DVD between them (and Warner HD DVD sales in 2007 must be in the vicinity of a million)

Take them out of the equation and you'll have a more realistic ratio.

phansson

11-29-07, 10:55 AM

I think Dave meant they have not willingly particpated in a BOGO sale. Store can do whatever they want. It is interesting that Warner recently made the price of discs equal and has tried to stay out of sales favoring either side, and with that, sales have come close to 50:50.

Where is the information on Warner sales being 50/50 in sales?

300 has sold 2:1 Blu Ray according to videoscan numbers. That is the only example I can find at HMM.

Plus if you are including total sales of Warner titles on both formats, Warner has quite a few big sellers that are on HD DVD and not Blu Ray. Batman Begins is one of the top sellers all time for HD DVD. The Matrix? If these titles were on Blu Ray they would sell 2 to 1.

When Harry Potter comes out it will probably sell 2 to 1 also. It might even be higher because it is in the PS3's "demographic".

Grubert

11-29-07, 11:00 AM

Where is the information on Warner sales being 50/50 in sales?

300 has sold 2:1 Blu Ray according to videoscan numbers. That is the only example I can find at HMM.

The Departed has sold 1.64:1

Planet Earth has sold better on HD DVD 1.05:1.

Happy Feet was 1.65:1 last August.

Letters from Iwo Jima was 1.60 last August.

Ocean's 13 sold 1.49:1 during its first week.

MASrules

11-29-07, 11:04 AM

Did I hear something about a prize.

After seeing the overall standings, I am suddenly interested in hearing any specifics about a prize.

phansson

11-29-07, 11:06 AM

The Departed has sold 1.64:1

Planet Earth has sold better on HD DVD 1.05:1.

Happy Feet was 1.65:1 last August.

Letters from Iwo Jima was 1.60 last August.

Ocean's 13 sold 1.49:1 during its first week.

So looking at that information, there is only one dual format title from warner that is 50/50.

Batman Begins, V is for Vendetta and The Matrix trilogy can bring up the sales ratio to 50/50. Actually, I would believe that. If those titles would be released on Blu Ray those numbers would change a little bit...

Greg Kettell

11-29-07, 11:07 AM

It'll be interesting to see how Harry Potter:OOTP and Blade Runner do. I think those two will be key, they'll tell Warner what they can expect from a blockbuster, as well as a popular catalog title box set.

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 11:17 AM

Grubert

11-29-07, 11:17 AM

The other major question is. Did those count? Doesn't money have to change hands for something to be considered a sale?

Sure they count. Just remember the week of "free Heroes with your Xbox add-on". That title shot up in the charts.

It merely has to be 'scanned at the register', even if the total is eventually brought to zero.

Rich Peterson

11-29-07, 11:19 AM

RDarrylR

11-29-07, 11:22 AM

plazman

11-29-07, 11:22 AM

they know what to expect from a blockbuster.......300. :)
That they claim was heavily marketed to the PS3 demographics and in the same meeting said they did not want the future of HDM to rest on a game console :)

Grubert

11-29-07, 11:23 AM

But if Toshiba is buying 300 to put into player boxes, shouldn't that count as a sale by Warner also? In other words, aren't their total sales (and therefore profits) for HD DVD actually higher than retail sales? Wouldn't that affect their decision also?

They are not counted as sales.

Of course, there must be a financial arrangement with some monetary consideration between Toshiba and Warner. Maybe a lump sum, maybe a payment per player sold, maybe a combination of the two, maybe other.

plazman

11-29-07, 11:23 AM

Yeah I'm sure Toshiba pays Warner $27.95 for every copy of 300 they put in a box.
More like Warner chipping in as part of the HD promo contribution?

JAC6

11-29-07, 11:31 AM

A few observations.

I'm not sure why anyone wants to excise the sale-priced discs from the numbers. Both sides recognize that price is a factor and both sides have been willing to price competitively. While discs that are packed in with players don't count, others do and the same rules apply to both formats, so it is likely a wash. The numbers are the numbers.

I'm beginning to wonder if Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, and Sharp are selling more stand-alone Blu-Ray players recently. Or perhaps it is just the PS3 surge after the revised pricing.

Perhaps people who bought a $99 Toshiba player are price sensitive enough to forego HD-DVD discs except for truly good movies, and are primarily buying DVDs instead. It is puzzling that the major sales of Toshiba players has occurred when HD-DVD's numbers are falling rather than rising.

And, perhaps this week was an anamoly. (Of course, if you're HD-DVD, this is probably the worst week of the year to experience such an anamoly, right after Thanksgiving and to open the holiday shopping season.)

Next week should be interesting.

I hope we can stop the discussion of studios going exclusive or not, as that is not part of this thread and will lead to the thread getting locked. In any event, nobody actually knows and everything on that topic has been posted many many times.

Merrick97

11-29-07, 11:32 AM

More like Warner chipping in as part of the HD promo contribution?

Yes, but they probably arent doing it for free. Afterall, 300 is still selling pretty well and since its a hot title for HD-DVD (and bluray), I find it doubtful that Warner would be willing to lose money on it for the sake of helping HD-DVD.
They probably arent charging $35 for it though.

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 11:33 AM

More like Warner chipping in as part of the HD promo contribution?:confused:

So is Warner doing good without chipping in or not? Pick one or the other.

Ezra

11-29-07, 11:33 AM

So are these Nielsen threads the new Format Battle threads? Seems the fanboyism and and condescension is as bad as before.

Grubert

11-29-07, 11:36 AM

Many of those tittles posted above, were also part of the $15 discount during the Wal*Mart 1st black friday...as far as I know, those were not counted on the Neilsen's numbers...so even if they're given away at a later time, many HD DVD owners have them, therefore the sells impact by those HD DVD movies has been greatly altered.

False.

This is the complete list of discounted titles at Wal-Mart

Clerks 2
Lucky Number Slevin
Pulse
Failure to Launch
Four Brothers
Italian Job
Sleepy Hollow
Casino
12 Monkeys
Backdraft
Big Lebowski
Seabiscuit
Alexander Revisited
Blood Diamond
Full Metal Jacket
The Last Samurai
Swordfish
Unforgiven

So, of the 23 titles offered in the three-free-movies-with-the-player offer, only two (Casino and The Big Lebowski) had been part of the Wal-Mart November 2 offer.

ToddUGA

11-29-07, 11:37 AM

So are these Nielsen threads the new Format Battle threads? Seems the fanboyism and and condescension is as bad as before.

It would appear that way. Best thing to do is hit the report post button. Hopefully the mods can get this thread back under control.

BagMan

11-29-07, 11:38 AM

Looks like Nielson spilled the beans early, blu-ray wins this next week with 72.6% market share.

BaronVH

11-29-07, 11:41 AM

The Nielsen numbers for Black Friday show an almost 3:1 sales ratio.

Rich Peterson

11-29-07, 11:41 AM

So are these Nielsen threads the new Format Battle threads? Seems the fanboyism and and condescension is as bad as before.
I don't think it is anywhere near as bad as before the big crackdown, but it is true that we need to be careful so we can keep these threads open. Everyone please show some restraint!

fitprod

11-29-07, 11:51 AM

RE: Live Free or Die Hard (BD) numbers...

We'll probably never know the real sales numbers, but one thing I did notice about LFODH (BD) at my local Fry's in Concord, CA... Completely gone as of Tuesday night (11/27/07). I haven't seen this happen since 300's run during the summer.

I'm fairly certain the 100,000 number is the discs shipped, much like Casino Royale for Sony, but the number are still quite impressive.

fitrpod

CochiseGuy

11-29-07, 12:10 PM

I wasn't aware that HMM reports from First Alert data and not the total Neilsen data. What is the difference between the two? Has anyone seen both and compared them?

They are one and the same - Nielson VideoScan's First Alert Data. :)

It would appear that way. Best thing to do is hit the report post button. Hopefully the mods can get this thread back under control.

In the hope we don't end up losing this Nielson Prediction Thread - (NOTE: Not the Nielson Discussion Thread) - I suggest the thread be locked after Winn calls the contest and posts the results. :):)

Winn

11-29-07, 12:15 PM

Winn and others,

No votes after 5:29 p.m. PT Nov. 28, 2007 should be eligible for this week.

I realize there are a lot of people that don't follow this stuff closely, but there are plenty who do and the info spreads like wildfire. It's simply not fair to anyone to accept votes that was placed after the info was leaked.

Let's keep the shenanigans to a minimum. No harm in not getting a vote placed for the week, but it's ludicrous to include votes that were placed shortly after the info was leaked, especially ones that were miraculously only one point off. This is all for fun, but let's keep it fair to everyone.

Disclosure:
Note that I voted last night around 10 PM ET and didn't even realize the numbers had been leaked since I don't follow this stuff, but I'm perfectly fine with not having my vote count for the reason stated above... In fact I don't want it counted. Then again, it would have hurt my avg. anyway. :D

Immediately after hearing about the early number release, I came in to close the voting. I considered tossing Geko's guess, but his guess history convinced me otherwise. Also, he is currently in something like 31st place in the competition. I'm in the middle of doing a standings update.

In the future, I am going back to making it clear how early leaks of numbers are going to be handled. It will be going in my (I)FAQ, which needs some serious updating. 90+ guesses a week? We haven't had that few in months.

Did I hear something about a prize.

After seeing the overall standings, I am suddenly interested in hearing any specifics about a prize.

$10 gift card at Amazon.com, or another retailer of your choice.

I don't think it is anywhere near as bad as before the big crackdown, but it is true that we need to be careful so we can keep these threads open. Everyone please show some restraint!

I concur.

Winn

11-29-07, 12:40 PM

Technically, it requires 13 weeks to be qualified right now. I left the people with 12 entries in anyway.

Nielsen contest results for 11/30/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 73:27

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Enigma XX:XX 14 3
Wet1 XX:XX 13 3.08
dad1153 XX:XX 12 3.08
MASrules 67:33 17 3.29
MichaelHDDVD XX:XX 16 3.56
Neo1965 XX:XX 16 3.56
huntaar 68:32 12 3.58
JeffY 63:37 15 3.80
stefanpaulmayer 68:32 15 3.87
Everdog 61:39 17 4.00
Azumi 68:32 17 4.00
Reylas 71:29 17 4.00
extra_hc 68:32 16 4.00
lomax 65:35 17 4.06
gand41f 62:38 16 4.19
Raxel 69:31 16 4.25
Grubert 60:40 15 4.27
manikin 68:32 17 4.29
fitprod 69:31 16 4.31
shamus 64:36 16 4.38
theflux 60:40 17 4.41
Sketcha 67:33 17 4.41
GeorgeLV XX:XX 15 4.47
LynxFX 68:32 17 4.47
Will d s 63:37 13 4.54
trondmm 65:35 13 4.54
TPigeon2006 68:32 17 4.59
boomster XX:XX 12 4.75
Noggin1980 XX:XX 12 4.75
UxiSXRD 69:31 17 4.76
geko29 74:26 17 4.76
David Scott XX:XX 15 4.8
Icemage XX:XX 16 4.81
todrigo 55:45 15 4.87
Vov76 64:36 13 4.92
online 60:40 17 4.94
spacejamz 67:33 16 4.94
Blu-Devil 55:45 16 5.06
phansson 69:31 12 5.08
aaronwt 60:40 17 5.12
digicam95 70:30 12 5.17
darinp2 53:47 17 5.18
iontyre 55:45 14 5.21
chirpie 65:35 13 5.23
hammie34 60:40 17 5.29
soremekun 65:35 16 5.31
neillkirn 68:32 12 5.33
Baccusboy 60:40 14 5.36
allargon 63:37 16 5.38
ottscay 61:39 15 5.40
donricouga 63:37 16 5.44
ICBM99 66:34 15 5.47
Ronin_R6 68:32 14 5.50
eightninesuited 67:33 17 5.65
BuGsArEtAsTy 49:51 12 5.67
CochiseGuy 62:38 12 5.67
crimsona 63:37 16 5.69
Jim Morrison 72:28 15 5.87
mswoods1 60:40 12 6.00
Winn 73:27 17 6.71
GmanAVS 53:47 16 6.81
SGRSBSKIER 71:29 13 7.08
Jonto81 45:55 13 7.38
CRFTony 69:31 12 7.42
jkwest 68:32 15 7.53
rdjam 49:51 16 7.63
user4avsforum 50:50 13 8.46
briankmonkey 40:60 17 9.41
Kosty 49:51 17 9.88
Shmack 30:70 16 21.56

BuGsArEtAsTy

11-29-07, 12:43 PM

I'm doing very poorly, but hey, at least I'm beating Winn. ;)

dobyblue

11-29-07, 01:01 PM

I am getting rather excited about this week's Nielsen numbers, however. It's a very different week to most that have gone before. On the hdgamedb amazon tracker, HD DVD has been leading the Top 100 chart for over a week now - which implies that a number of new HD DVD owners are buying, since catalog movies are selling, not just new releases.

The suspense over the next 3 days is going to do me in! :D

I am getting rather excited too. I think that despite the Amazon sales for HD DVD and the Top 100 chart that Blu-ray is still going to win by a substantial margin.

I wonder if the week ending December 9th will be over 80:20?

Pecker

11-29-07, 01:04 PM

I've seen a few comments to the effect that 'the war is over - bye-bye HD DVD' today.

Realistically, it looks like a leap towards BD because the Die Hard releases have done well.

In other words, if you have a good title, it'll sell well.

Looking at Transformers you'd have to say if you have a good title, it'll sell well, on either format.

We can speculate a lot on BOGOF sales, but the only people who matter are the studios, and they know the truth of how much or how little these sales effect the final Nielsen figures.

Disney (just as an example) know how well POTC1 does in a normal week, and how well it did in the BOGOF weeks. They'll probably be able to have a good guess from this how well other studios' titles are doing.

If BD's lead is based on BOGOF sales, or if it isn't, will be a fact known to all the studios.

If BD's lead is based on 'big' titles, the studios will know this - as well as knowing whether the balance of 'big' films in '08 will be weighted towards BD studios in a smilar way, or towards HD DVD, or more even.

In short to argue 'the war is over' because of the Nielsen figures, without knowledge of how much this is effected by other factors, is a bit little bit previous.

Steve W

Lee Stewart

11-29-07, 01:04 PM

I am getting rather excited too. I think that despite the Amazon sales for HD DVD and the Top 100 chart that Blu-ray is still going to win by a substantial margin.

I wonder if the week ending December 9th will be over 80:20?

Hey dobyblue! Long time no hear. Hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving with your family.

Getting towards the end of the year. Geez how time flys!;)

dobyblue

11-29-07, 01:06 PM

So, of the 23 titles offered in the three-free-movies-with-the-player offer, only two (Casino and The Big Lebowski) had been part of the Wal-Mart November 2 offer.

Damn dude you're on fire! Even the insiders are getting it wrong.

dobyblue

11-29-07, 01:06 PM

Hey dobyblue! Long time no hear. Hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving with your family.

Getting towards the end of the year. Geez how time flys!;)

I sure did....back in October when we Canadians get first dibs on all the best turkeys.

:D

Everdog

11-29-07, 01:10 PM

How can I still be near the top? I average 'off by 4' every week!
This past week I was off by 11... Ouch!

d3code

11-29-07, 01:46 PM

Calamus

11-29-07, 01:48 PM

The other major question is. Did those count? Doesn't money have to change hands for something to be considered a sale?
It is my understanding that what counts is if they are scanned or not. For example, the recent 360 add-on that included Kong, Kong was boxed with the 360 add-on and would NOT count as a sold disc. However, BB had a deal where you got three free additional movies with the add-on and those would be scanned seperatly and WOULD count as sales.

Pecker

11-29-07, 01:50 PM

as i predicted before, star trek would not have been big of a deal as i predicted like 4 months ago.

also why people are claiming standalone players are more important as consoles is beyond me.

standalone player would be important if they play hd-dvd content or bluray content only. like when dvd players were released they could not play VHS. but hd-dvd players as well as bluray players and consoles can play dvd as well.

so the whole standalone argument is worthless, which is already obvious in nielsen software sales ratios we see every week.

I don't agree that the standalones argument is 'worthless', but I otherwise agree with your point.

If there are quite literally hundreds of thousands of high def player owners (of both formats) out there, the one thing that'd get sales going is if the media arrived simulpriced* with the SD DVD.

Steve W

*I've just copywrited that word. :D

SW

BuGsArEtAsTy

11-29-07, 01:56 PM

My understanding was that this thread was for predictions of sales ratios, not for endless back-and-forth arguing with fifty different reasons for those sales ratios. In fact, I had thought that the only reason that the mods let us and Winn have these threads again was because it was understood these would be very restricted in their content...

If that is still true, then let us please keep the bickering down to a minimum. I'd hate to see these types of fun threads closed down yet again.

bplewis24

11-29-07, 02:09 PM

Can I play devil's advocate for a moment here?

Does anybody know how the Star Trek data is counted? Does it double dip as a DVD and an HD DVD 100% in sales data? Does it count exclusively as one or the other? Is it 50/50?

I apologize if this is already well discussed in this forum, but it sounds like it's important to a thread like this.

Brandon

RDarrylR

11-29-07, 02:22 PM

I think it has to only be counted in the hi-def sales numbers.

jkwest

11-29-07, 02:23 PM

Frikin Winn....

you get one perfect week and you skyrocket past me...

me do I suck at this...:o

theflux

11-29-07, 03:21 PM

I got two perfect guesses and thought I knew what was up. Then off by 13, 8, and 13 again. I suck at this. :(

JAC6

11-29-07, 03:30 PM

Technically, it requires 13 weeks to be qualified right now. I left the people with 12 entries in anyway.

Wow, it seems like I've been doing this forever and I'm still a few weeks short of qualifying. Tough citeria. How many more weeks in the contest and what's the number one has to have at this point to qualify if that person were to estimate in every remaining week?

nick_weasel

11-29-07, 03:33 PM

I agree with a couple posters up above. This is the only informative thread left in this sub-forum, let's please not give anybody a reason to lock it.

GmanAVS

11-29-07, 03:40 PM

So are these Nielsen threads the new Format Battle threads? Seems the fanboyism and and condescension is as bad as before.

+1

but then again I bet Mark is monitoring this thread very very closely and is also giving us a little more wiggle room to express our thoughts.

Please don't abuse this little privilege. :)

back on topic, :eek: BD wins hands down, it looks like PS3 sales +3 BD discs at register are having an immediate impact, all it takes are +100k PS3 to negate the A3 sales and previous Wally A2s. I wish Xbox 360 had a similar offer :o

Lee Stewart

11-29-07, 03:47 PM

QUESTION:

How does Nielsen deal with returns?

J6P by mistake buys two HDM titles for his UP DVD player (hey it's 1080 right?) and realizes they don't work.

How does Nielsen deal with that?

Winn

11-29-07, 03:49 PM

Wow, it seems like I've been doing this forever and I'm still a few weeks short of qualifying. Tough citeria. How many more weeks in the contest and what's the number one has to have at this point to qualify if that person were to estimate in every remaining week?

There are 7 more weeks for a total of 24. Final eligibility will require 18 weeks. There are some people who think this is not tough enough.

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 03:58 PM

How does Nielsen deal with returns?

J6P by mistake buys two HDM titles for his UP DVD player (hey it's 1080 right?) and realizes they don't work.Why does it matter? The number of people that do that has to be so infinitesimal that it doesn't even register. The articles about "mistaken identity" clearly point out consumers just won't buy it instead of picking the wrong one.

Of course, if they do, no one's confusing the words "Blu-ray" and "DVD". :p

Lee Stewart

11-29-07, 04:00 PM

Why does it matter? The number of people that do that has to be so infinitesimal that it doesn't even register. The articles about "mistaken identity" clearly point out consumers just won't buy it instead of picking the wrong one.

Of course, if they do, no one's confusing the words "Blu-ray" and "DVD". :p

We know how they deal with a sale.

How do they deal with a return?

I want an answer. It matters to me - OK?;)

Everdog

11-29-07, 04:02 PM

Of course, if they do, no one's confusing the words "Blu-ray" and "DVD". :p

Sony and Samsung have the same gold "Full HD" shield on their upconverting players as they do on their Blu-ray players. Maybe they are all Blu-ray?

JAC6

11-29-07, 04:03 PM

There are 7 more weeks for a total of 24. Final eligibility will require 18 weeks. There are some people who think this is not tough enough.

I will (barely) qualify if I participate every week. Count me in the group that would error on the side of being more inclusive rather than less inclusive. I think the numbers stop changing significantly after a dozen or so estimates and I'd go with 16, or even 14 weeks of participation. But I defer to others and know that the rules were clearly set forth in advance and we should hestitate to change them mid-stream. And thanks for doing all of this -- it is fun and informative.

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 04:12 PM

Sony and Samsung have the same gold "Full HD" shield on their upconverting players as they do on their Blu-ray players. Maybe they are all Blu-ray?:rolleyes:

They don't say "Blu-ray" on them, genius.

rdjam

11-29-07, 04:14 PM

Can I ask a potentially silly question:

How come the data is so early this week? Is the data for the full week, or was the time span for the weekly sample different due to the holidays in some way?

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 04:26 PM

How come the data is so early this week? Is the data for the full week, or was the time span for the weekly sample different due to the holidays in some way?The data is released to subscribers on Weds. The only reason we get it Friday is because that's when HMM releases their magazine. The time span measured is the same, the full week preceding release.

Everdog

11-29-07, 04:29 PM

:rolleyes:

They don't say "Blu-ray" on them, genius.

But they both are "Full HD" right, smarty pants?:D

Supermans

11-29-07, 04:31 PM

QUESTION:

How does Nielsen deal with returns?

J6P by mistake buys two HDM titles for his UP DVD player (hey it's 1080 right?) and realizes they don't work.

How does Nielsen deal with that?

Why does it matter? The number of people that do that has to be so infinitesimal that it doesn't even register. The articles about "mistaken identity" clearly point out consumers just won't buy it instead of picking the wrong one.

Of course, if they do, no one's confusing the words "Blu-ray" and "DVD". :p

Good one :)

Lee,

So you are stating that the latest Nielsen numbers are over-inflated due to returns based on people buying the wrong format? It is an interesting question though how they deal with the issue of returns however I have to agree with JBlacklow that this is infinitesimal in the grand scheme of things and if it did have any affect, it would probably be a negative towards HD-DVD simply because of the name similarities with regular DVD's and HD-upconverter players. One of Blu-ray's strengths is in its unique name. I do agree that the "Full HD" moniker on the Samsung and Sony Blu-ray players might confuse some people....It should read "Full Blu-ray HD" or something like that...

JBlacklow

11-29-07, 04:33 PM

But they both are "Full HD" right, smarty pants?:DOh, please. Stop trying to put words in my mouth and move along.

Azumi

11-29-07, 04:35 PM

We know how they deal with a sale.

How do they deal with a return?

I want an answer. It matters to me - OK?;)

Technically, they should be counted in reverse, and therefore they should impact negatively the Nielsen numbers.

Retailers and their supply chains count in UPC, SKU, numcats or their preferred ID. Then they feed those numbers to Nielsen through their reporting systems.

If the system was theoretically in real time (which I find very unlikely), Nielsen would get instant data from the supply chains, and these numbers would either increase or decrease -- sales or returns.

In pratice, you need to add the restocking and repackaging. And besides, I don't think Nielsen would get real time data, that would be too revealing. So, when they provide the data to Nielsen, it should be a rough total that automically takes into account any eventual returns. So if they sold 50 units of the same SKU but restocked 15 of them, the would send to Nielsen the combined total of 35 units sold.

Nielsen should be using the same differentiator with their First Alerts and final data. Even if they failed to get reports on one given week from -- say, 10% of stores -- it doesn't really matter, because they'll automatically include this delayed data in the following week. Which means that First Alerts feeds include the eventual leftovers and late data gathering.

Azumi

11-29-07, 04:38 PM

Can I ask a potentially silly question:

How come the data is so early this week? Is the data for the full week, or was the time span for the weekly sample different due to the holidays in some way?

Subscribers and industry professionals get the data always on Wednesday mornings. Which mean that the alerts could be easily published on the same day, if they so choose.

Lee Stewart

11-29-07, 04:55 PM

Rhys

11-29-07, 05:02 PM

I predict 73/27

theflux

11-29-07, 06:14 PM

The demographic for the PS3 is a lot wider than most people give it credit for.

I am 39 years old. I have three good friends that own PS3's. They are 36, 46 and 51. They use them both for game play and Blu Ray playback. The PS3 is not just for 22 year old games anymore.

Also, another interesting note. Wal Mart has a grocery division under the name of "friendly neighborhood market". These outlets usually carry about 40 hot selling dvd's at their customer service counter. I have never seen any HDM offered there, but last week they had the Blu Ray of Live free or Die hard and Die Hard.

Of the people I know who own the PS3, a lot of them don't fit the "gamer demographic". As far as 360 ownership goes, that does fall along those lines a lot more. Most of the people I know bought the PS3 exclusively for Blu-ray with the option to play games if they ever feel like it (they haven't yet).

theflux

11-29-07, 06:15 PM

I predict 73/27

I predict your vote won't be counted :D

theflux

11-29-07, 06:15 PM

:confused:

So is Warner doing good without chipping in or not? Pick one or the other.

Yes, I'm curious too.

phansson

11-29-07, 06:35 PM

Does anyone know for sure if the Star Trek TOS was counted as an HD DVD for these numbers?

Winn

11-29-07, 06:38 PM

Does anyone know for sure if the Star Trek TOS was counted as an HD DVD for these numbers?

Why wouldn't it be? Every other combo release has been.

phansson

11-29-07, 07:04 PM

Winn,

I am just trying to make sense of these numbers. IMHO it shouldn't have been such a big win for Blu Ray this week.

Winn

11-29-07, 07:19 PM

Winn,

I am just trying to make sense of these numbers. IMHO it shouldn't have been such a big win for Blu Ray this week.

Understandable. Obviously, it will be clearer when we see the breakdown in HMM tomorrow.

Until then, my guess is that the new HD DVDs flopped, the new BDs did well and BD has more and more recent blockbusters for residual sales. On top of that, I am thinking that Amazon's influence on the numbers is decreasing as holiday shopping ramps up so the hundreds or thousands of movies they gave away with HD DVD players has less of an impact than it used to.

Merrick97

11-29-07, 07:26 PM

Understandable. Obviously, it will be clearer when we see the breakdown in HMM tomorrow.

Until then, my guess is that the new HD DVDs flopped, the new BDs did well and BD has more and more recent blockbusters for residual sales. On top of that, I am thinking that Amazon's influence on the numbers is decreasing as holiday shopping ramps up so the hundreds or thousands of movies they gave away with HD DVD players has less of an impact than it used to.

I agree with this, too. Retailers are now likely to start counting for a much higher percentage of HDM sales. Overall, Id say that bluray has recovered quite nicely since Paramount went HD-DVD exclusive.

I do have to wonder what cards HD-DVD has left to play.

Merrick97

11-29-07, 07:28 PM

Winn,

I am just trying to make sense of these numbers. IMHO it shouldn't have been such a big win for Blu Ray this week.

The thing that I found most shocking is that Star Trek didnt even break the Top 10, according to Video Business.

Perhaps, its not totally out of realm of possibility that Star Trek wasnt counted.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=marketData&content=hdDvd

bplewis24

11-29-07, 07:34 PM

I agree with this, too. Retailers are now likely to start counting for a much higher percentage of HDM sales.

True...they don't call it Black Friday for nothin ;)

Brandon

Azumi

11-29-07, 07:42 PM

Does anyone know for sure if the Star Trek TOS was counted as an HD DVD for these numbers?

I'm pretty sure Star Trek is counted as a HD DVD. That is, if the US system is the same than the one we have in Europe.

All kind of product that might fall into two separate categories, must have a priority book -- in distribution's lingo. It's easy to understand it if you take the example of a music DVD with a CD, and a CD with a DVD. It would be difficult for retailers to know where to put them -- the video or the CD endcap?

Actually, it goes deeper than that, because video and music are different entities, and product placements, retailer discounts and special considerations are different too.

The same reasoning applies to Star Trek. It's unlikely Paramount would market it as a DVD because they would have to comply with specific retailing agreements -- not to mention that misplaced items might not sell as briskly.

For me, ST is an HD DVD. We'll know soon enough when the numbers are published.

mcgarnagle

11-29-07, 07:51 PM

The thing that I found most shocking is that Star Trek didnt even break the Top 10, according to Video Business.

Perhaps, its not totally out of realm of possibility that Star Trek wasnt counted.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=marketData&content=hdDvd

The star trek set cost over $100, more than some people paid for their player. Niche product at best, plus every trek fan already has this on DVD. I don't understand how anyone would have expected high sales for this.

BDA has simply done a much better job at managing promotions and leveraging the $399 PS3 compared to the once off sales that HDDVD attempted. From the Gamespot article, it seems Sony may have moved 429,000 PS3s. BD seems to be expanding their base much quicker and I would expect the gap to increase further over the holidays, especially with much stronger movie releases scheduled.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6183389.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=morenews&tag=morenews;title;12

george king

11-29-07, 08:09 PM

everdog,

But they both are "Full HD" right, smarty pants?

No they aren't, at least according to Sony's way of thinking. Remember, BD is advertised as "beyond HD" :rolleyes:

Nescio

11-29-07, 08:11 PM

Understandable. Obviously, it will be clearer when we see the breakdown in HMM tomorrow.

Until then, my guess is that the new HD DVDs flopped, the new BDs did well and BD has more and more recent blockbusters for residual sales. On top of that, I am thinking that Amazon's influence on the numbers is decreasing as holiday shopping ramps up so the hundreds or thousands of movies they gave away with HD DVD players has less of an impact than it used to.

Moreover, as HD DVD lowers its player price, it starts tapping into segments with lower attach rates. The PS3 may actually have the opposite effect as more owners realize it's also a BD player. And with PS3 sales picking up considerably, it may (potentially) be getting harder and harder for Toshiba to keep up, even with such aggressive prices.

darinp2

11-29-07, 08:19 PM

The numbers this week are heavily skewed by promotions, specifically on the Blu side of the aisle. There were promotions from a certain retailer (who is counted in the weekly numbers) to give away a specific Sony title with the purchase of a PS3 and that particular title increased its YTD sales by almost 100%. If you take this one title out of the equation, the numbers would be closer to 69-31, which is still a big win for the BD side.If the free movies that were counted weren't at more than 72:28 for Blu-ray then as a group they didn't skew the numbers toward Blu-ray. Are you saying the free discs made the ratio higher for Blu-ray than it would have been without those free discs being counted (meaning Blu-ray had to give away about 73 for every 27 HD DVD gave away, at least as far as counted discs)?

Amazon looks like they gave away a lot of copies of HD DVDs last week and Best Buy gave away some online too (with 3 copies not in the box or by rebate counted out of 10). Can you tell us how The Departed did on HD DVD?
If anyone has noticed, Warner has NOT been a part of any of the BOGO free offers, nor have they discounted their HD DVD's.They have definitely been part of the buy an HD DVD player and pick 3 disks for free though. Just look at the Amazon rankings for discs last week. They were also part of the buy an XBOX360 add-on and get Heroes and 2 discs of your choice promotion on the HD DVD side, as well as the current promotion for Blu-ray where people can pick 5 discs with the Sharp player at Best Buy.
The thing that I found most shocking is that Star Trek didnt even break the Top 10, according to Video Business.

Perhaps, its not totally out of realm of possibility that Star Trek wasnt counted.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=marketData&content=hdDvdWouldn't shock me if it didn't make the top 10. At the stores I've been checking it doesn't look like it is hardly selling at all and on Amazon it looks like it got crushed by free copies of The Departed. Maybe Dave could say where Star Trek ended up. My understanding is that Toshiba paid quite a bit of money to get an exclusive window for that release (this was before Paramount changed for most everything) and I wonder if they think they got their money's worth now. I won't be surprised if they start including it for free with some players, much like Heroes, which had quite a few unsold copies before that, from my checks around here.

--Darin

Merrick97

11-29-07, 09:06 PM

If the free movies that were counted weren't at more than 72:28 for Blu-ray then as a group they didn't skew the numbers toward Blu-ray. Are you saying the free discs made the ratio higher for Blu-ray than it would have been without those free discs being counted (meaning Blu-ray had to give away about 73 for every 27 HD DVD gave away, at least as far as counted discs)?

Amazon looks like they gave away a lot of copies of HD DVDs last week and Best Buy gave away some online too (with 3 copies not in the box or by rebate counted out of 10). Can you tell us how The Departed did on HD DVD?
They have definitely been part of the buy an HD DVD player and pick 3 disks for free though. Just look at the Amazon rankings for discs last week. They were also part of the buy an XBOX360 add-on and get Heroes and 2 discs of your choice promotion on the HD DVD side, as well as the current promotion for Blu-ray where people can pick 5 discs with the Sharp player at Best Buy.
Wouldn't shock me if it didn't make the top 10. At the stores I've been checking it doesn't look like it is hardly selling at all and on Amazon it looks like it got crushed by free copies of The Departed. Maybe Dave could say where Star Trek ended up. My understanding is that Toshiba paid quite a bit of money to get an exclusive window for that release (this was before Paramount changed for most everything) and I wonder if they think they got their money's worth now. I won't be surprised if they start including it for free with some players, much like Heroes, which had quite a few unsold copies before that, from my checks around here.

--Darin

Im shocked that didnt break the Top 10 when you consider that number 10 is what like 5000 copies?

Anyway, its not on the list eitherway and if this is the best HD-DVD can do then theyre in trouble. Not trying to start a fire here, but man. Poor Nfinity...

Elwar

11-29-07, 09:49 PM

Im shocked that didnt break the Top 10 when you consider that number 10 is what like 5000 copies?

Anyway, its not on the list eitherway and if this is the best HD-DVD can do then theyre in trouble. Not trying to start a fire here, but man. Poor Nfinity...
In Black Friday week, lord help HDM if the #10 is only 5000.

By the way, the linked data was from Rentrak - do they track sales or only rentals? If the latter, its not surprising Star Trek didn't chart.

Slim GoodBooty

11-29-07, 10:43 PM

which had quite a few unsold copies before that, from my checks around here.

--DarinYou do know the idea of retail sales is to have product on shelves when people go to look for it, right?

Dave Vaughn

11-29-07, 10:44 PM

Sorry guys, I've been working all day and haven't been able to check in. My point of Open Season was not to diminish the sales on the BD side. If it was taken that way, it wasn't my intent. It was to show what a title can do when is tied to the juggernaut of the PS3. This title had a HUGE increase in sales this week. Why? It was given away with the PS3. There is no other logical reason why this is so. It had been languishing on for weeks and weeks with very little sales and then when it is tied to the PS3, it jumped through the roof. Unfortunately, I cannot discuss the actual numbers or I risk losing my source of the information.

As for Die Hard, the VS numbers don't equal what the studio said the sales were, but that has been a very common trend with not only this movie, but with Spiderman 3 and Transformers, of which neither equaled what the studios said they sold. Personally, I don't think VS is tracking all of the sales properly and the studios believe what they sold. The percentage of "actual (VS sales)" vs reported sales on Transformers and Spiderman 3 were in the range of 50% of what was reported. The VS numbers are under that 50% range by a considerable number. With this weeks numbers, catalog titles ruled the day in a very big way. While Die Hard 3 was the #1 title for the week, the sum of the catalog releases that were sold dwarfed its sales number.

As to Star Trek sales, I would say they were VERY disappointing, even if you look at the revenue generated. The "cost" of this set was 5-6 times higher at retail than any other HDM title, yet it only sold a low amount of discs.

As for HDM in general, this past week saw a very big sales week in actual numbers combined, which is a good sign for adoption, but still pales in comparison to DVD.

xradman

11-29-07, 10:45 PM

xradman

11-29-07, 10:59 PM

The rankings are out.

For Blu-ray

1. Live Free or Die Hard
2. Open Season (huh???)
3. Spider-Man 3
4. Ratatouille
5. Hairspray
6. Ocean's Thirteen
7. Santa Clause 3
8. 300
9. Die Hard Collection
10. Planet Earth

For HD DVD

1. Shrek The Third
2. Transformers
3. Planet Earth
4. Ocean's Thirteen
5. Star Trek: TOS
6. 300
7. Knocked Up
8. Chuck & Larry
9. The Departed
10. Shooter

Weekly Ranking according to Nielsen Videoscan (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/home_entertainment/video/index.jsp)

Dave, you mentioned something about Open Season earlier. How in the world did this end up being the second best selling Blu-ray, ahead of Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Hairspray, and Santa Clause 3, last 2 being day and date releases?

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 11:03 PM

It's according to how much catalog the BDA had to give away or sell cheap. If that's the only way HD discs can be sold, it's over for both sides.

So one title from sony with a single PS3 model at best buy is the BDA giving away and selling for cheap. But 3 free movies off a list, 2 in box and 5 mail in on any A3 is what again?

xradman

11-29-07, 11:03 PM

Dave, you mentioned something about Open Season earlier. How in the world did this end up being the second best selling Blu-ray, ahead of Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Hairspray, and Santa Clause 3, last 2 being day and date releases?
I found out that this was packaged along with 40GB PS3 at Best Buy. That explains it.

SGRSBSKIER

11-29-07, 11:05 PM

Do we know if HMM will do a ratio breakdown of weekly numbers? They didn't last week, and I remember some people were saying a few weeks ago that they may stop.

Slim GoodBooty

11-29-07, 11:09 PM

So one title from sony with a single PS3 model at best buy is the BDA giving away and selling for cheap. But 3 free movies off a list, 2 in box and 5 mail in on any A3 is what again?
I apologize. I will include every free and half price disc ever when I refer to this in the future.:rolleyes:

Dave Vaughn

11-29-07, 11:11 PM

Dave, you mentioned something about Open Season earlier. How in the world did this end up being the second best selling Blu-ray, ahead of Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Hairspray, and Santa Clause 3, last 2 being day and date releases?

xradman hit the nail on the head. Best Buy gave it with a PS3 purchase. Needless to say, I know how many PS3's Best Buy sold last weekend ;)

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 11:16 PM

xradman hit the nail on the head. Best Buy gave it with a PS3 purchase. Needless to say, I know how many PS3's Best Buy sold last weekend ;)

wasnt it only the 40gb also?

Dave Vaughn

11-29-07, 11:17 PM

wasnt it only the 40gb also?

I don't know the specific promotion, but if it was the 40GB, then I know how many 40GB PS3's that they sold :D

RussTC3

11-29-07, 11:27 PM

With the price of the TOS set, the low sales really shouldn't surprise anyone. Heroes did very well with it's lower price point the week it was released in regards to the Nielsen numbers (46/54 I believe). It's baffling to me why Paramount (or CBS in this case) sees it necessary to overcharge for their Trek sets (they've been doing it for years).

Dave, I know you can't disclose actual sales, but could you give us an idea on how poorly the set performed? Perhaps in relation to what Heroes did (or The Sopranos, which was similarly high-priced, and likely had low sales).

Thanks.

It's according to how much catalog the BDA had to give away or sell cheap. If that's the only way HD discs can be sold, it's over for both sides.
I agree 100% with this. Folks on the BDA side continually downplay or criticize the HD DVD groups lower priced model on hardware, but I think that's a much better strategy.

In the future, when the market matures, CE companies need to shift their focus from just offering plain old Blu-ray or HD DVD playback to products that group functions (HDM/DVR for instance). The point of HDM is to make more money for the studios, I'm surprised that CE companies actually believe they can make a good deal of profit on just selling the players.

Toshiba is trying to get the product out to as many households as possible. The $199 price point doesn't have to go away just because we've already seen sub $100 players.

Steverhcp02

11-29-07, 11:40 PM

No all of my posts will be 4 pages long as to not offend you. It sounds like you who are whining. I'm just making an observation and asking a question, of which you were quick to start tossing around accusations because you didn't like them. I get nothing if HD DVD wins and the same for BD. What do you get?

I get a couple of Universal titles that i want :D

Dave Vaughn

11-29-07, 11:45 PM

Russ,

I can say that Star Trek outsold The Soprano's, but I can't even give a hint as to the number. I have already walked a very fine line with what I have said thus far. Hopefully you understand.

RussTC3

11-29-07, 11:47 PM

I understand. Thanks. :)

Quetzalcoatl

11-29-07, 11:48 PM

This somewhat proves the artice from a few months ago about who is selling HDM. I cannot seem to find it but I remeber that it had Best Buy way out in the lead with the others clumped together. So Best Buy is really looks like they are the HDM leader right now.

And Dave I know you are questioning the number of LFDH sold could that not be like what sony did with Spiderman3 and they are combining the total sales of the movie itself with the box set for a total number? If that is the case do the numbers you are seeing work out better?

xradman

11-30-07, 12:00 AM

And Dave I know you are questioning the number of LFDH sold could that not be like what sony did with Spiderman3 and they are combining the total sales of the movie itself with the box set for a total number? If that is the case do the numbers you are seeing work out better?

Given that Box set for Die Hard on Blu-ray was ranked 9th, it's only going to be a small blip in total number of Live Free or Die Hard Blu-ray sold, probably not anywhere close to making any sort of difference.

Neo1965

11-30-07, 12:12 AM

I'm doing very poorly, but hey, at least I'm beating Winn. ;)

I'm actually sad that I did not put my guess in before the article came out. I had intended to participate every week, and now I'm short 1 week. I was going to put in 75:25 if DieHeard4 sells 100k, and I waited too long. If the article was about DieHard almost selling 100k, I would have put in something less than 75:25, but given the distribution of sales this week, (Open Season?!?! ), the guess would have been based on wrong premises anyway.

The unit numbers going up is good news for both, that's the silver lining for one of the formats (i guess).

darinp2

11-30-07, 12:20 AM

9. The Departed
10. ShooterI think there is a good chance those 2 are there mostly due to the promotion on Amazon where people got 10 free discs with Toshiba players, where 3 of them were their choice from a list of movies. This is the promotion where the HD-A3 got up to #3 in Electronics on Amazon (and maybe higher). Going back to the afternoon of November 22nd here:

http://charts.highdefdigest.com/versus.aspx

I see that the top 3 on the HD DVD side were Planet Earth, the The Departed, then Shooter. I know that The Departed was in the list of free movies and suspect that Shooter was also. Both those titles are now way down in the rankings on Amazon (at #1966 and #2765). Toshiba tried to give away a lot of movies last week that would count in the rankings (they also did this kind of deal on bestbuy.com). A person could complain that the give-aways the Blu-ray side did were much more effective the week of Black Friday (normally one of the best weeks for deals) than the giveaways Toshiba did, as if that makes HD DVD look better somehow. Interesting to see whining about Blu-ray giving away movies when Toshiba was doing 10 free with a player in a way where 3 counted, and is doing it again this week (but in Best Buy stores as well as online this time). Not even counting how giving away lots of copies of Heroes was one way HD DVD got things as close as they did in one of the weeks just recently. Obviously, both sides have been doing free movie things where some counted.

--Darin

Ktak

11-30-07, 12:21 AM

In the future, when the market matures, CE companies need to shift their focus from just offering plain old Blu-ray or HD DVD playback to products that group functions (HDM/DVR for instance). The point of HDM is to make more money for the studios, I'm surprised that CE companies actually believe they can make a good deal of profit on just selling the players.

Agreed. This is what's been happening in Japan for a while now. Disc players are pretty much considered loss leaders these days, and mostly cater to those who need portability or a replacement for a bedroom or the kids. The real market is for HDD/Disc recorders that offer greater functionality and value. It's a lot easier for a consumer to rationalize spending over $500 for something that can be used to record and archive TV programs and home videos AND playback HD movies than it is for just movie playback alone. One of the reasons I bought a PS3 in the first place is because I wanted my next HDM device to be a recorder as well, but the prices last year were too high. I can now buy last year's BD recorder models on clearance for less than $700. And the retail prices of the newest models have already dropped considerably compared to last year, even though the new models offer new features like AVC encoding the ability to record HD to DVD-R/RWs.

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 12:25 AM

a3willia

11-30-07, 12:34 AM

The demographic for the PS3 is a lot wider than most people give it credit for.

I am 39 years old. I have three good friends that own PS3's. They are 36, 46 and 51. They use them both for game play and Blu Ray playback. The PS3 is not just for 22 year old games anymore.

Hmmm...I wasn't necessarily thinking of age. I was thinking of another acronym I saw in a different thread...SGBU ("stuff" or another crass/profane word "gets blown up") I think that demographic transcends age. The BDA has released a lot of day and date releases that lend themselves to that demographic and they've all done well. Those types of movies show off the hi def owners investment in TV/projectors/ player/ receiver and simply sell well regardless of box office. HD DVD hasn't had anything like that since Transformers...until Bourne.

kowhite

11-30-07, 12:39 AM

While Die Hard 3 was the #1 title for the week, the sum of the catalog releases that were sold dwarfed its sales number.

I'm assuming you meant Die Hard 4.

Do you think perhaps Fox's number is a sold to retailer number? Seems to be a normal discrepancy, or do you think it's just the difference in VS versus real total sales?

ehomer

11-30-07, 12:59 AM

Their only hope [HD DVD fan boys] is that there are hundreds of thousands of HD DVD players sitting under Christmas Tree's on December 25th

Problem is, there is very likely PS3's sitting under those same Christmas Tree's and very likely those HD DVD players get returned/exchanged on Dec 26th for a PS3 game and a couple of Blu-Ray movies instead (assuming they paid 98$) :p :D

P.S. If they paid 200$, then it's a couple of PS3 games and 5 Blu-Ray movies.

JAC6

11-30-07, 01:01 AM

This somewhat proves the artice from a few months ago about who is selling HDM. I cannot seem to find it but I remeber that it had Best Buy way out in the lead with the others clumped together. So Best Buy is really looks like they are the HDM leader right now.

Best Buy named leading high-def retailer
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6487731.html

OCT. 5 | Best Buy has emerged as the leading retailer of Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD titles by a wide margin, easily topping DVD-dominant Wal-Mart, according to the NPD Group. Wal-Mart carries a third-place share of the high-definition software market, followed by Circuit City and Target. Amazon.com sits in second. NPD declined to report specific unit sales shares for each of the retailers but noted that Best Buy is far in front. Amazon.com and the rest are mostly clustered together for the second through fifth spots.

* * *

Interesting to see SM3 ahead of Ratatouille already. I think SM3 will be a big holiday title, even if it is being given away in the box with some PS3s and BDP-S300s.

Die Hard was impressive, both the single version of the new movie and the box-set.

It will be interesting to see what POTC3 does, as I think that will be a big seller as well, particularly since so many people bought the first two films, either initially or during one of the BOGO sales.

The ongoing strength of Planet Earth continues to amaze, as does 300 to a lesser extent.

Intriguing numbers.

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 01:23 AM

I'm assuming you meant Die Hard 4.

Do you think perhaps Fox's number is a sold to retailer number? Seems to be a normal discrepancy, or do you think it's just the difference in VS versus real total sales?

Consistently, first weeks sales of VS numbers are off by 50% of what the studios report. As I said before, that happened with SP3 and Transformers. Die Hard 4 is less than the 50% number, so given the history of the numbers (going all the way back to 300), I think something isn't quite right with the stated numbers by FOX. I base this on comparing the week 1 totals of all of the other big releases vs. the studio press releases.

300 on BD and Transformers on HD DVD are, by far, the biggest HDM titles sold followed by the HD DVD of 300. These numbers show that regardless of format, if you have a big title, it can move big numbers (relative to catalog titles). BD is leading right now in the software for a number of reasons IMO. First, they have a much better catalog offering at this point compared to HD DVD. HD DVD released a lot of titles (specifically Universal), but unfortunately, most of them weren't very good movies (trust me, I had to sit through every single one of them for review purposes). Second, the day and date titles have favored BD as well. The two biggest titles that HD DVD has in its favor are Transformers (which sold in huge numbers), and Bourne 3. But if history is any indication with sequels and HDM, I doubt that Bourne 3 will sell over 100K copies with either VS numbers or studio numbers. I don't think Pirates will sell as well either for the same reasons. The first two Pirates movies have yet to crack 100K copies, even with the BOGO free promotions.

We are all paying a lot of attention to these numbers, but there is still a long way to go in this and we may be having these same discussions through the next year.

bplewis24

11-30-07, 01:25 AM

...and we may be having these same discussions through the next year.

You got that right! That, we can agree on.

Brandon

Merrick97

11-30-07, 01:33 AM

But if history is any indication with sequels and HDM, I doubt that Bourne 3 will sell over 100K copies with either VS numbers or studio numbers. I don't think Pirates will sell as well either for the same reasons. The first two Pirates movies have yet to crack 100K copies, even with the BOGO free promotions.

PotC 1 and 2 sales should go up considerably as people buy 3. In short, I expect the Top 10 of that week to be. PotC 3, Superbad, SM3, Ratatouille, Live Free or Die Hard, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, PotC2, PotC1, Planet Earth, Castaway

Grubert

11-30-07, 03:51 AM

Sorry guys, I've been working all day and haven't been able to check in. My point of Open Season was not to diminish the sales on the BD side. If it was taken that way, it wasn't my intent. It was to show what a title can do when is tied to the juggernaut of the PS3. This title had a HUGE increase in sales this week. Why? It was given away with the PS3. There is no other logical reason why this is so. It had been languishing on for weeks and weeks with very little sales and then when it is tied to the PS3, it jumped through the roof. Unfortunately, I cannot discuss the actual numbers or I risk losing my source of the information.

Okay, for the sake of argument: we know that in August Open Season had sold under 21,600 units (those were the sales of the #20 title at the HMM chart last August).

So let's say Best Buy sold 15k-20k PS3 consoles on Black Friday. With 15k-20k copies of Open Season.

Meanwhile, amazon (which is #2 site for HDM) sold the A3, A30 and A35 with three free movies. The players were #1 in electronics (over the ipods and zunes!). And we know that about 80K HD DVD standalones have been sold in recent weeks (not counting the 90K-100K sold during the weekend of the Wal-Mart secret sale).

So amazon may well have sold at least 15k players last week. With three free movies each (apart from 300 and Bourne, of course). That is 45,000 free HD DVD units that get added in the Nielsen charts.

It doesn't jump at you so much because it's spread among the 23 titles available.

But consider this - Shooter (one of the titles to choose from with the HD DVD player on amazon) hadn't made the HD DVD charts since August.

Blumoon

11-30-07, 04:36 AM

Wow, go blu-ray!

Was open season given away for free this week?

Grubert

11-30-07, 05:30 AM

Wow, go blu-ray!

Was open season given away for free this week?

Black Friday offer at Best Buy: free Open Season if you bought the 40GB PS3.

Jim Morrison

11-30-07, 05:37 AM

Argghh...just a whisker away from my first 'on-the-nose' prediction at 72/28.

Oh well, there's always next week.

Kosty

11-30-07, 06:09 AM

Look for Warners sales ratios closely. Not what Disney and Fox sold. Warner going BD exclusive in 2008 is not even remotely possible now (at this point in time). JMHO ;)

I wasn't aware that HMM reports from First Alert data and not the total Nielsen data. What is the difference between the two? Has anyone seen both and compared them? Yes.

It was consistently 1-3% in the spring and summer Blu-ray lean, suspect it will be less now and soon will be less and less variance between the first alert and final numbers as volumes increase.

But the SI and YTD numbers included in the HMM figures always include the last week final numbers added to the new weeks first alert numbers so in the end things work out, and the variance between first alert and final is far smaller than the consistent Blu-ray sales lead that has been maintained all year long.

In December and January as software sales pick up, the variation should get progressively smaller and smaller as the non-reported or sample based retailer sales get overwhelmed by mass merchandisers that are POS census reported as the overall volumes pick up. Wal-Mart's non-reported sales will also be more of a studio decision point as they will will increase their volumes overtime.

Kosty

11-30-07, 06:29 AM

QUESTION:

How does Nielsen deal with returns?

J6P by mistake buys two HDM titles for his UP DVD player (hey it's 1080 right?) and realizes they don't work.

How does Nielsen deal with that? If it goes through the retailer, in the final numbers I believe it counts as a negative sale in that retailers reported sales census numbers that get transmitted to Nielsen/Videoscan.

But believe it or not, its really very very small at the retail level (must be unopened for return etc) compared to the volume of media units sold. For small purchases most people have inertia not to return an item and their is a hassle factor in returning an opened item even with an issue.

Might be a bit higher for HDM, but its pretty much a non-issue in the real world. Lots of speculation of things like PE , or combos etc being returned as the HDM version was purchased, but its pretty much a non issue AFAIK real world wise.

Its real statistical noise at the volumes HDM is selling at this point.

Kosty

11-30-07, 06:31 AM

Why does it matter? The number of people that do that has to be so infinitesimal that it doesn't even register. The articles about "mistaken identity" clearly point out consumers just won't buy it instead of picking the wrong one.

Of course, if they do, no one's confusing the words "Blu-ray" and "DVD". :p I agree with you here. :D

Its hardly even noise at this point.

Kosty

11-30-07, 06:40 AM

Technically, they should be counted in reverse, and therefore they should impact negatively the Nielsen numbers.

Retailers and their supply chains count in UPC, SKU, numcats or their preferred ID. Then they feed those numbers to Nielsen through their reporting systems.

If the system was theoretically in real time (which I find very unlikely), Nielsen would get instant data from the supply chains, and these numbers would either increase or decrease -- sales or returns.

In pratice, you need to add the restocking and repackaging. And besides, I don't think Nielsen would get real time data, that would be too revealing. So, when they provide the data to Nielsen, it should be a rough total that automically takes into account any eventual returns. So if they sold 50 units of the same SKU but restocked 15 of them, the would send to Nielsen the combined total of 35 units sold.

Nielsen should be using the same differentiator with their First Alerts and final data. Even if they failed to get reports on one given week from -- say, 10% of stores -- it doesn't really matter, because they'll automatically include this delayed data in the following week. Which means that First Alerts feeds include the eventual leftovers and late data gathering. Actually at this point, I actually believe most larger retailers are providing continuous reporting to Nielsen/Videoscan daily. They did not use to, but I think now less batch up their reports at the end of the sales week.

Nielsen/Videoscan is trusted to keep the actual specifics and the data as is is revealing enough.

Its when Nielsen aggregates the data though is when it gets to be useful.

I do know that consumer returns are somehow accounted for each retailer , but their level is very insignificant and is a non issue for decision makers.

I suppose that if their was a real consumer disaster, and a huge amount of returns it would be a decision point, but right now that is not the case.

Kosty

11-30-07, 06:53 AM

xradman hit the nail on the head. Best Buy gave it with a PS3 purchase. Needless to say, I know how many PS3's Best Buy sold last weekend ;) So if the ratio of Open Season is a large percentage of Die Hard, then that's the variable that most of us missed in our estimates, and explains a bit of why the Amazon ratios were less significant as a indicator?

Best Buy is number one HDM retailers and attaching Open Season brings it in effect as as a surprise new release Blu-ray blockbuster that was unexpected for the week.

That would explain a bit if you combine it with the Star Trek TOS non block buster first week sales figures.

Grubert

11-30-07, 06:57 AM

So if the ratio of Open Season is a large percentage of Die Hard, then that's the variable that most of us missed in our estimates, and explains a bit of why the Amazon ratios were less significant as a indicator?

amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.

GSX600F

11-30-07, 07:04 AM

Black Friday offer at Best Buy: free Open Season if you bought the 40GB PS3.

That means a lot of PS3'S got sold that week!
'Open Season' at #2 in the rankings.

Neo1965

11-30-07, 09:22 AM

Agreed. This is what's been happening in Japan for a while now. Disc players are pretty much considered loss leaders these days, and mostly cater to those who need portability or a replacement for a bedroom or the kids. The real market is for HDD/Disc recorders that offer greater functionality and value. It's a lot easier for a consumer to rationalize spending over $500 for something that can be used to record and archive TV programs and home videos AND playback HD movies than it is for just movie playback alone. One of the reasons I bought a PS3 in the first place is because I wanted my next HDM device to be a recorder as well, but the prices last year were too high. I can now buy last year's BD recorder models on clearance for less than $700. And the retail prices of the newest models have already dropped considerably compared to last year, even though the new models offer new features like AVC encoding the ability to record HD to DVD-R/RWs.

In the US, for the BD recorders to work, we need open cable solved, and that has some complexity and cost issues, for example, to get an M-Card from some of the service provider, it costs about the same as an HD-STB rental, which is why the economic side of the equation is not attractive for the consumers... This is unlike japan's ISDB-T card which is essentially 'free' with the box from the recorder.

Next year, this will hopefully improve, but a BD recorder to record HD cable will find a lot of interest. ATSC has nothing interesting, and satellite is too low quality to interest people.

Neo1965

11-30-07, 09:24 AM

amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.

Let's just be clear here, so I guess you're really saying that amazon rankings are always less significact then? But they have such pretty graphs!?!

Grubert

11-30-07, 09:29 AM

Let's just be clear here, so I guess you're really saying that amazon rankings are always less significact then? But they have such pretty graphs!?!

Aye, there's the rub. ;)

It really depends on what you prefer - meaningful statistics that are updated once a week, or meaningless statistics that update in real time?

Mr. Cinema

11-30-07, 09:43 AM

This somewhat proves the artice from a few months ago about who is selling HDM. I cannot seem to find it but I remeber that it had Best Buy way out in the lead with the others clumped together. So Best Buy is really looks like they are the HDM leader right now.

And Dave I know you are questioning the number of LFDH sold could that not be like what sony did with Spiderman3 and they are combining the total sales of the movie itself with the box set for a total number? If that is the case do the numbers you are seeing work out better?
It's too bad the leader in High Def sales also has the highest prices. At least compared with other B&Ms, their title selection can't be matched.

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 09:51 AM

eskimo2176

11-30-07, 10:13 AM

The interesting thing here is that sales were almost 3:1 with a lot of volume over previous weeks numbers. Not only do you need software to release, it has to be quality software that people want to buy. That means it is day and date. The action genre sells the best as well, which the HD DVD side has only had with Transformers (with big sales). Bourne may sell well also, but not in the numbers that Transformers did, and personally, I don't think it will be in the same league when we see the numbers (I know I'm repeating myself here). Regardless, in the PR war, HD DVD is losing right now. Are they selling some players? Yes, but software sales have to follow or the point is moot. They like to downplay the PS3's, but it is the most significant piece of the puzzle at this point for many reasons...first, there are a lot of them in the marketplace (over 2 million in the US) and second, it still is the best Blu-ray player available, even without an IR remote (which is my only nit to pick with it!).

Amen.

It doesn't do alot of good to move players and then not have the attach to go with it. I still contend that these numbers are a direct reflection of people buying cheaper players aren't going to shell out early adopter costs for software.

surfdude12

11-30-07, 10:16 AM

The interesting thing here is that sales were almost 3:1 with a lot of volume over previous weeks numbers. Not only do you need software to release, it has to be quality software that people want to buy. That means it is day and date. The action genre sells the best as well, which the HD DVD side has only had with Transformers (with big sales). Bourne may sell well also, but not in the numbers that Transformers did, and personally, I don't think it will be in the same league when we see the numbers (I know I'm repeating myself here). Regardless, in the PR war, HD DVD is losing right now. Are they selling some players? Yes, but software sales have to follow or the point is moot. They like to downplay the PS3's, but it is the most significant piece of the puzzle at this point for many reasons...first, there are a lot of them in the marketplace (over 2 million in the US) and second, it still is the best Blu-ray player available, even without an IR remote (which is my only nit to pick with it!).

sorry Dave, I own a PS3 and it is not the best blu-ray player available. Example: it can't decode DTS-MA lossless audio tracks into bitstream or PCM, so we can't enjoy the lossless audio of Die Hard. Hopefully this will be cured in a future firmware update, but this reason alone excludes it from the best.
Sony needs to get their act together on this.

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 10:24 AM

sorry Dave, I own a PS3 and it is not the best blu-ray player available. Example: it can't decode DTS-MA lossless audio tracks into bitstream or PCM, so we can't enjoy the lossless audio of Die Hard. Hopefully this will be cured in a future firmware update, but this reason alone excludes it from the best.
Sony needs to get their act together on this.

How many players are out than can do that? None can decode it internally and there are 2 players that can send it out via bitstream (Samsung and latest Panasonic). But neither of those players are perfect either. Both require an AVR that can decode bitstream. The PS3 can't send out the bitstream because of its HDMI transmitter, and it there is still debate as to whether it will be able to decode the DTS-MA stream in the player at some point. If not, then it won't be "perfect", but as for right now, I think it is the best player out there. It is the fastest at loading discs and is easily update-able over the Internet. The same can't be said for other BD players.

Everdog

11-30-07, 10:26 AM

The interesting thing here is that sales were almost 3:1 with a lot of volume over previous weeks numbers. Not only do you need software to release, it has to be quality software that people want to buy. That means it is day and date. The action genre sells the best as well, which the HD DVD side has only had with Transformers (with big sales). Bourne may sell well also, but not in the numbers that Transformers did, and personally, I don't think it will be in the same league when we see the numbers (I know I'm repeating myself here). Regardless, in the PR war, HD DVD is losing right now. Are they selling some players? Yes, but software sales have to follow or the point is moot. They like to downplay the PS3's, but it is the most significant piece of the puzzle at this point for many reasons...first, there are a lot of them in the marketplace (over 2 million in the US) and second, it still is the best Blu-ray player available, even without an IR remote (which is my only nit to pick with it!).

I thin that to be a big hit on HDM right now, a film needs to be a combination of big action, cgi, and 18-35 year old target audience.

Right now HD DVD just doesn't have as many of these as Blu-Ray. My fear is that since Boune is not a big CGI/cool explosions flick and that the target audience may be a little older, that it will not be as big as people think.

Next year though I believe HD DVD will actually have more of these big 300/transformers like films. Transfomers proved that HD DVD can sell better than Blu-Ray (if there are no BOGO sales).

eskimo2176

11-30-07, 10:34 AM

I thin that to be a big hit on HDM right now, a film needs to be a combination of big action, cgi, and 18-35 year old target audience.

Right now HD DVD just doesn't have as many of these as Blu-Ray. My fear is that since Boune is not a big CGI/cool explosions flick and that the target audience may be a little older, that it will not be as big as people think.

Next year though I believe HD DVD will actually have more of these big 300/transformers like films. Transfomers proved that HD DVD can sell better than Blu-Ray (if there are no BOGO sales).

I do agree Transformers was a great hit for the format, HD DVD needs more flicks like these. I love the catalogs, but that isn't going to drive the format short of a LOTR release, etc.

However, it appears that the BDA is starting to get its act together. I can't turn on a HD channel and not be bombarded with the I Do Blu campaign... its insane the amount of advertising that's going on for BD right now....

At Thanksgiving, all I heard was BD, 1080p and all of that, all the Sony marketing regurgitated right back at me... HD DVD has to do something on the PR side or I fear the numbers will only get worse.

DavidHir

11-30-07, 10:34 AM

How many players are out than can do that? None can decode it internally and there are 2 players that can send it out via bitstream (Samsung and latest Panasonic). But neither of those players are perfect either. Both require an AVR that can decode bitstream. The PS3 can't send out the bitstream because of its HDMI transmitter, and it there is still debate as to whether it will be able to decode the DTS-MA stream in the player at some point. If not, then it won't be "perfect", but as for right now, I think it is the best player out there. It is the fastest at loading discs and is easily update-able over the Internet. The same can't be said for other BD players.

The BD30 is pretty fast, reliable, will decode DTS-MA and TrueHD bitstream, and produces better picture quality than the PS3. This for me seems like a better player than the PS3. (I've A/B'd both on my SXRD A3000). I assuming you've compared both players?

There's a reason people are selling off their PS3s for the BD30.

eskimo2176

11-30-07, 10:35 AM

The BD30 is pretty fast, reliable, will decode DTS-MA and TrueHD bitstream, and produces better picture quality than the PS3. This for me seems like a better player than the PS3. (I've A/B'd both on my SXRD A3000). I assuming you've compared both players to make such a bold statement?

I would imagine you are correct, but from a value proposition the PS3 wins hands down. It's less expensive, streams media, plays BD discs really well, and as a bonus plays games.

Everdog

11-30-07, 10:43 AM

... HD DVD has to do something on the PR side or I fear the numbers will only get worse.

In golf there is a saying "drive for show, putt for dough". HDM is similar. SW sales right now are for show. HW sales are what really matters. Its why the PS3 has had such an impact and why HD DVD is trying to sell lots of sub $199 players.

btw, if either side gets above several million stand-alones, studios will eventually go neutral.

Rich Peterson

11-30-07, 10:43 AM

So if the ratio of Open Season is a large percentage of Die Hard, then that's the variable that most of us missed in our estimates, and explains a bit of why the Amazon ratios were less significant as a indicator?

Best Buy is number one HDM retailers and attaching Open Season brings it in effect as as a surprise new release Blu-ray blockbuster that was unexpected for the week.

That would explain a bit if you combine it with the Star Trek TOS non block buster first week sales figures.
Well, you shouldn't put too much weight into the affect the Open Season promotion had this week. Remember what Dave said yesterday: The numbers this week are heavily skewed by promotions, specifically on the Blu side of the aisle. There were promotions from a certain retailer (who is counted in the weekly numbers) to give away a specific Sony title with the purchase of a PS3 and that particular title increased its YTD sales by almost 100%. If you take this one title out of the equation, the numbers would be closer to 69-31, which is still a big win for the BD side.
So even without that Dave says it would have been over 2:1.

phansson

11-30-07, 10:48 AM

In golf there is a saying "drive for show, putt for dough". HDM is similar.

Yes, but if you hit your driver out of bounds, you still can't have a putt for birdie.

Saying that software sales isn't important is taking your putter out of play....

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 10:48 AM

The BD catalog titles have outsold the HD DVD ones by a wide margin. But, if the exact same titles were available on the opposite format, would the numbers be the same? What I mean to say is, if you switched the exclusive titles on HD DVD and made them exclusive on BD and then did the same with the BD titles to HD DVD, would BD still have the advantage? I know the question is rhetorical in nature, but I wonder what the difference would be?

DavidHir

11-30-07, 10:50 AM

I would imagine you are correct, but from a value proposition the PS3 wins hands down. It's less expensive, streams media, plays BD discs really well, and as a bonus plays games.

But, many of us do not play games nor stream media. We just want to watch movies with top notch audio/video with a reliable player. The BD30 can be shipped for $430; I paid $450 from Circuit City. Pretty close to the PS3 price.

The BD30 IS a greater value for many of us. I know this doesn't make some people happy, but it's true. These continuous blanket, over-generalized statements that the PS3 is the best Blu-ray player today really need to stop.

Dave Vaughn

11-30-07, 10:59 AM

David,

Is the Panasonic Profile 2.0 compatible? No. Is the PS3? Not yet, but it has all the hardware to be so.

So for right now, you may be correct in that it is a better player, but it may not be in a very short time. Also, how well does it work as a 1.1 player? Nobody knows yet because there aren't discs available yet. We don't know how the PS3 works either, but I would bet it will work great given the past experience with the player. Also, does the Panasonic have any disc load issues with BD-J discs? (taking a long time to load) I am not trying to be sarcastic in this question, I honestly don't know if it does or doesn't.

eskimo2176

11-30-07, 11:10 AM

But, many of us do not play games nor stream media. We just want to watch movies with top notch audio/video with a reliable player. The BD30 can be shipped for $430; I paid $450 from Circuit City. Pretty close to the PS3 price.

The BD30 IS a greater value for many of us. I know this doesn't make some people happy, but it's true. These continuous blanket, over-generalized statements that the PS3 is the best Blu-ray player today really need to stop.

Touche. Okay, I'll rephrase.

For the vast majority of the buying public, the PS3 is the best Blu-Ray player on the market because of what I mentioned above.

RDarrylR

11-30-07, 11:14 AM

plazman

11-30-07, 11:16 AM

Yep HD-DVD always does much better in all the reporting methods that are never made public.
Not necessarily. For instance, Amazon reporting is spotty for many reasons, and BD sales may be better than indicated on Neilsen as well. One example...

Robert Spalding

11-30-07, 11:16 AM

73:27

hd-dvd is dieing.

so is your spelling...

plazman

11-30-07, 11:17 AM

Yep HD-DVD always does much better in all the reporting methods that are never made public.
Also, no single source is considered reliable. But Neilsen has done a good job in marketing themselves as the most reliable provider of data - while accounting for less than 50% of the market!

JBlacklow

11-30-07, 11:18 AM

So, Amazon ranking is not useless. But it IS useless for Neilsen First Alert reporting.Amazing. We've disproven this and its variations a billion times, and you guys still keep pulling this crap.
I was told by someone who works for a major studio the following:

1. Neilsen weekly is mostly what a few retailers sold (Best Buy and Target mostly).False, proven by the Nielsen-provided document in the 1st post.
2. While Neilsen claims it, Amazon is not part of the weekly data they compute (again, I am not arguing whether he is right, but it was in the context of trying to understand how their numbers are off from what Neilsen reports)Another lie from your source, because 1) Amazon is a relative ranking system that combines orders and pre-orders that have variable POS times, and 2) BOGOs from Amazon have shown up in the Nielsen ratings.
3. Studios have their own sources for data that they use for internal purposes. Neilsen is used mostly for third party marketing and reporting purposes (since using internal sources as we have seen can get them into trouble and Neilsen aggressively markets themselves as a data aggregator and hence data contrary to Neilsen gets into a he-said, she-said fight...not useful if the goal is PR or marketing :))True. We can see that in the releases and other studio-sourced data that is released.

Leviathin25

11-30-07, 11:20 AM

Your friend is very wrong we already know for a fact Amazon is included and other vendors beyond Target and Bestbuy. (Which is obvious form some old titles getting huge bumps up the charts.)

I was told by someone who works for a major studio the following:

1. Neilsen weekly is mostly what a few retailers sold (Best Buy and Target mostly).

2. While Neilsen claims it, Amazon (and other online only retailers) are not part of the weekly data they compute (again, I am not arguing whether he is right, but it was in the context of trying to understand how their numbers are off from what Neilsen reports)

3. Studios have their own sources for data that they use for internal purposes. Neilsen is used mostly for third party marketing and reporting purposes (since using internal sources as we have seen can get them into trouble and Neilsen aggressively markets themselves as a data aggregator and hence data contrary to Neilsen gets into a he-said, she-said fight...not useful if the goal is PR or marketing :))

Based on all this, I would assume that we give these Neilsen First Alert data more credit than the studios themselves, but it is certainly good fun :)

Not asking anyone to agree with me here, but I am posting what I know.

So, Amazon ranking is not useless. But it IS useless for Neilsen First Alert reporting.

Rich Peterson

11-30-07, 11:21 AM

Everyone please don't continue questioning the figures. That's one of the exact things we were told caused the other Nielsen thread to be closed.

JBlacklow

11-30-07, 11:22 AM

Not necessarily. For instance, Amazon reporting is spotty for many reasonsAnd what, pray tell, are those reasons?
BD sales may be better than indicated on Neilsen as well. One example...Again, what example?
Also, no single source is considered reliable. But Neilsen has done a good job in marketing themselves as the most reliable provider of data - while accounting for less than 50% of the market!Sorry, but that's not true. We know that, at least through October, Walmart was third in retailing HDM, which means there is no way they could account for 40% of the data, let alone 50% or more.
Everyone please don't continue questioning the figures. That's one of the exact things we were told caused the other Nielsen thread to be closed.Exactly right. Move on, plazman.

UxiSXRD

11-30-07, 11:22 AM

Touche. Okay, I'll rephrase.

For the vast majority of the buying public, the PS3 is the best Blu-Ray player on the market because of what I mentioned above.

Indeed. And the PS3's superior speed more than offsets any miniscule differences in PQ which have yet to be substantiated by a reputable source (which I would not even stipulate to without seeing a BD30 in person), much less in a scientific manner - what exactly is the BD30 supposed to do better and why? It's a fine player, but the only real reason to consider one is for a front LED display (which no HT buff worth his salt would want messing up his black levels anyway) but it's significantly slower to boot, slower to load, and harder to update firmware...

PS3 sales also took off since Black Friday. That can only be good for Blu-ray in the coming months.

Leviathin25

11-30-07, 11:23 AM

Everyone please don't continue questioning the figures. That's one of the exact things we were told caused the other Nielsen thread to be closed.

This is probably the posters goal, same as it was in the other thread by other posters.

RDarrylR

11-30-07, 11:27 AM

This is probably the posters goal, same as it was in the other thread by other posters.

You're not saying that when people don't like the answers they try to question the methods used to obtain them and thus are intentionally trying to cause flaming which will then get the thread shutdown which will then prevent people from seeing and discussing what the actual weekly results are - are you? :D

plazman

11-30-07, 11:28 AM

Your friend is very wrong we already know for a fact Amazon is included and other vendors beyond Target and Bestbuy. (Which is obvious form some old titles getting huge bumps up the charts.)
If you or anyone can show me a Neilsen breakdown by source, I will believe you. Dave, have you seen a breakdown by reporting source?

I agree the number reported is a fact. It is a FACT for those businesses that report to Neilsen. But to pretend that this account for a majority of HDM sales is being naive. We already know that studios are quoting numbers that are over 2X greater than what Neilsen says. Obviously these sales happened somewhere. No?

As a studio you have to differentiate between sold to customers and sold to your channel. This is fundamental to their accounting and treating them the same could send people to jail. It would violate both GAAP and FASB regulations. So, if a studio cannot account for how much they sold, then they are in trouble - in other words they have no idea how much they are selling.

Shipping and selling are not the same thing and if you are a business you cannot pretend that a ship = sale. This would violate basic accounting principles on revenue recognition.

I am not criticizing Neilsen at all. But as people on AVS a 'science' forum, we have to know what we are dealing with. That is basic. JMHO.

Leviathin25

11-30-07, 11:29 AM

No of course not, that kind of diabolical plot belongs in a 60s spy movie.:)

You're not saying that when people don't like the answers they try to question the methods used to obtain them and thus are intentionally trying to cause flaming which will then get the thread shutdown which will then prevent people from seeing and discussing what the actual weekly results are - are you? :D

JBlacklow

11-30-07, 11:30 AM

If you or anyone can show me a Neilsen breakdown by source, I will believe you. Dave, have you seen a breakdown by reporting source?
I am not criticizing Neilsen at all. But as people on AVS a 'science' forum, we have to know what we are dealing with. That is basic. JMHO.We provided you with the sources that prove you wrong, now stop trying to get the thread locked.

Steverhcp02

11-30-07, 11:30 AM

lol at plazman now scurrying to justify the numbers. Ya know, i own a PS3 and i have NO PROBLEM acknowledging the 360 is a monster in the states. With games, and the selling of systems. I just dont understand why some people cant just see the numbers and just say "man, i REALLY wish HD DVD would take over, but its just not happening" Like grown a** men for once. Instead, we need these outlandish justifications.

We all love HDM, but its just ridiculous that we have numbers and reports of statistics and it clearly shows BD is taking the (if only small) HD market right now. Why is that so hard for us grown ups to discuss and understand. I understand peoples pride gets in the way sometimes, but it seems to me that enough is enough....BD is growing better than HD DVD. Period. Time to come to terms with it.....there are no little HD Elves sabatoging numbers, no company exec is polluting consumers water to drug them into buying their product. People are buying more BD than HD DVD. Period.

Rich Peterson

11-30-07, 11:31 AM

The way I see it the mods have given us a lot of leeway in this thread recently. Let's not abuse it, OK?

Kosty

11-30-07, 11:32 AM

amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless.
amazon rankings are useless. You and I disagree on this, as I feel they have some predicative impact and that the general trends of that significant retailer over time is a useful data set.

Its how you use the data that is the issue.

Amazon like any other data set is more useful the longer period you use.

For short term predictive , it obviously has flaws as its one retailer wide and the rankings once you move away from the top 10-25 titles don't correspond with much volume.

This week for example, Amazon rankings did not take into account the Best Buy free Blu-ray movie with PS3 purchase.

But this is neither the time nor place for that discussion.:D

plazman

11-30-07, 11:33 AM

And what, pray tell, are those reasons?
Again, what example?
Sorry, but that's not true. We know that, at least through October, Walmart was third in retailing HDM, which means there is no way they could account for 40% of the data, let alone 50% or more.
Exactly right. Move on, plazman.
How do you or anyone know that Walmart is #3 when they don't disclose sale. Also, just because they were #3 back when the data was compiled why would it mean they are still #3?

Lastly, Neilsen is more reliable than Amazon sales ranking since the Amazon ranking is not strictly a sales ranking.

As for Amazon reporting. What Amazon does is provide a set of APIs where people can use to query for stock information. Amazon themselves do not provide the data, but they provide web services APIs that third parties can use to query for data.

Walmart does the same thing but they limit the access to only the vendors and to their specific products and some limited reports on overall sales etc.

Steverhcp02

11-30-07, 11:34 AM

If you or anyone can show me a Neilsen breakdown by source, I will believe you. Dave, have you seen a breakdown by reporting source?

I agree the number reported is a fact. It is a FACT for those businesses that report to Neilsen. But to pretend that this account for a majority of HDM sales is being naive. We already know that studios are quoting numbers that are over 2X greater than what Neilsen says. Obviously these sales happened somewhere. No?

As a studio you have to differentiate between sold to customers and sold to your channel. This is fundamental to their accounting and treating them the same could send people to jail. It would violate both GAAP and FASB regulations. So, if a studio cannot account for how much they sold, then they are in trouble - in other words they have no idea how much they are selling.

Shipping and selling are not the same thing and if you are a business you cannot pretend that a ship = sale. This would violate basic accounting principles on revenue recognition.

I am not criticizing Neilsen at all. But as people on AVS a 'science' forum, we have to know what we are dealing with. That is basic. JMHO.

Im pretty sure its quite common for companies ot reprt sold to retail as sold....sicne once it is purchased FROM the studio thats sold. Videogame companies, MSFT and Sony do it all the time. the 360 "sold" 10 million 360's last year....they stuffed the channel to report they hit that milestone of sold. ITs actually quite common.

My next question is.....why would you think that if only 60% of retailers reporting to nielsen show a BD advantage why would others be different?

You and others seem to be under the impression there are little HD DVD oasis' that exist at wal mart for instance. Walmart still stocks mor eBD than HD DVD software, small mount total, but generally 2:1 more BD.....Sams is generally the same way.....why do you people assume and argue that there are these massive abominations of HD DVD sales conveniently at the ONLY retailers that dont count towards nielsen. It seem awfully silly and a tad delusional, imho.

plazman

11-30-07, 11:35 AM

plazman

11-30-07, 11:39 AM

Im pretty sure its quite common for companies ot reprt sold to retail as sold....sicne once it is purchased FROM the studio thats sold. Videogame companies, MSFT and Sony do it all the time. the 360 "sold" 10 million 360's last year....they stuffed the channel to report they hit that milestone of sold. ITs actually quite common.

My next question is.....why would you think that if only 60% of retailers reporting to nielsen show a BD advantage why would others be different?

You and others seem to be under the impression there are little HD DVD oasis' that exist at wal mart for instance. Walmart still stocks mor eBD than HD DVD software, small mount total, but generally 2:1 more BD.....Sams is generally the same way.....why do you people assume and argue that there are these massive abominations of HD DVD sales conveniently at the ONLY retailers that dont count towards nielsen. It seem awfully silly and a tad delusional, imho.
Stuffing the channels is NOT allowed by law in accounting for revenue. To say MSFT and Sony does it is to claim that they are overstating revenue. Plain and simple. This is a serious allegation if true.

Again, my point is not to say that somehow Videoscan is systematically undercounting HD DVD v BD. Definitely not! It is to point out that what many here are considering to be an authoritative source is not only not authoritative, but is not used in computing sales even by the studios. That is the crux.

This isn't a HD DVD v. BD thing at all. Not sure why it is being played that way?

Baccusboy

11-30-07, 11:39 AM

In golf there is a saying "drive for show, putt for dough". HDM is similar. SW sales right now are for show. HW sales are what really matters. Its why the PS3 has had such an impact and why HD DVD is trying to sell lots of sub $199 players.
.

But Toshiba is not trying to sell lots of sub $199 players. How do I know? I've been looking at buying one... and they're VERY hard to find for less than $199!

In fact, many are priced at $249!

I think Toshiba is saving itself for another big push near Christmas, but for now, their lowest-level player is not the deal it was.

Winn

11-30-07, 11:41 AM

Well, you shouldn't put too much weight into the affect the Open Season promotion had this week. Remember what Dave said yesterday:
So even without that Dave says it would have been over 2:1.

I wonder what the data would be if we pulled Open Season and all the titles that were sold as part of the Amazon prootion.

You and I disagree on this, as I feel they have some predicative impact and that the general trends of that significant retailer over time is a useful data set.

Its how you use the data that is the issue.

Amazon like any other data set is more useful the longer period you use.

I agree with Kosty on this. My prediction last week was based in part on my figuring out that animation tends to overperform on Amazon when compared to the larger market. It is nowhere near the level of usefulness of Nielsen, but, if you know what you are doing, you can pick up a piece or two of useless data.

It is mostly, though not entirely, useless.

Kosty

11-30-07, 11:47 AM

Yep HD-DVD always does much better in all the reporting methods that are never made public.
Well to a degree it might be in some ways, as the two camps have different PR strategies. There is less incentive for HD DVD to do so, based on their strategy.

The BDA has a reason to use the Nielsen stats as PR and propaganda points as much as they can and reinforce that by giving them as much prominence as possible. THey obviously have had great success with that all year.

Maintaining that lead in software sales is a significant PR point, so their is more incentives for things like BOGO offers during major HD DVD title release weeks.

HD DVD's studios do not have as much incentive to plump up volumes, as they have not made software sales as prominent a part of their user base support, media management and PR strategies.

The Nielsen numbers are prominent because they are regular and frequent in their delivery while things like the NPD hardware sales for set top boxes or peripherals are not because they are they less frequent and not automatically released publicly.

Winn

11-30-07, 11:50 AM

I was told by someone who works for a major studio the following:

1. Neilsen weekly is mostly what a few retailers sold (Best Buy and Target mostly).

2. While Neilsen claims it, Amazon (and other online only retailers) are not part of the weekly data they compute (again, I am not arguing whether he is right, but it was in the context of trying to understand how their numbers are off from what Neilsen reports)

3. Studios have their own sources for data that they use for internal purposes. Neilsen is used mostly for third party marketing and reporting purposes (since using internal sources as we have seen can get them into trouble and Neilsen aggressively markets themselves as a data aggregator and hence data contrary to Neilsen gets into a he-said, she-said fight...not useful if the goal is PR or marketing :))

Based on all this, I would assume that we give these Neilsen First Alert data more credit than the studios themselves, but it is certainly good fun :)

Not asking anyone to agree with me here, but I am posting what I know.

So, Amazon ranking is not useless. But it IS useless for Neilsen First Alert reporting.

You want to have some fun, Plaz? Go to your studio friend and tell him that a federal prosecutor has read your post and decided to make his bones by going after Nielsen/Video Scan for fraud. They sell the data based, in part, on the claim it includes Amazon. It would be a major scandal if it does not and they were caught. The world's next Elliot Spitzer could really make his career by bringing them down.

Tell him you are awaiting your subpoena to be forced to give up the name of the studio contact you mentioned in your post. Watch how quickly he backs down from his statement.

There was one week Amazon gave away Resident Evil: Apocalypse on BD. It was over the summer so things were relatively slow. RE:A had been nowhere near the charts. There were no sales on it anywhere else. All of a sudden, it pops in on the BD chart as one of the top sellers for the week. How could that happen if Amazon is not part of the First Alert data?

Steverhcp02

11-30-07, 11:54 AM

Stuffing the channels is NOT allowed by law in accounting for revenue. To say MSFT and Sony does it is to claim that they are overstating revenue. Plain and simple. This is a serious allegation if true.

Again, my point is not to say that somehow Videoscan is systematically undercounting HD DVD v BD. Definitely not! It is to point out that what many here are considering to be an authoritative source is not only not authoritative, but is not used in computing sales even by the studios. That is the crux.

This isn't a HD DVD v. BD thing at all. Not sure why it is being played that way?
Fine. but it still doesnt explain why you think that the only retailers NOT tracking HDM would show anything different.

Plazman, dont plead ignorance. We all know you started this devils advocate discussion to underscore BD's sales this week and claim it would have been closer if all retailers were counted for HD DVD. dont play dumb. That out of the way, it still doesnt explain why you think that other retailers, walmart specifically, which shows the current BB and CC and Target trend of stocking more BD's would be any different than the sources we have?

I mean, i get what youre saying, but your simply stating the obvious. Videoscan doesnt report ALL the numbers. We get it. But why continue to harp on it? We can see the undertone of your posts, theyer blanketed by a tone of "Im saying this because if they were all counted the numbers would be different"

nick_weasel

11-30-07, 12:06 PM

plazman,

#1 GAAP and FASB standards have nothing to do with Nielson numbers. I think you're suffering from hammer-nail syndrome here.

#2 Whether Nielson has 100% info is irrelevant. Obviously they don't. But if their sample is somewhat representative, their numbers are going to be very accurate.

#3 It doesn't matter if you have a problem with the numbers. This is not the place to discuss it. Make a separate thread, but stop talking about it here, please. It's going to get this thread locked.

eskimo2176

11-30-07, 12:08 PM

Fine. but it still doesnt explain why you think that the only retailers NOT tracking HDM would show anything different.

Plazman, dont plead ignorance. We all know you started this devils advocate discussion to underscore BD's sales this week and claim it would have been closer if all retailers were counted for HD DVD. dont play dumb. That out of the way, it still doesnt explain why you think that other retailers, walmart specifically, which shows the current BB and CC and Target trend of stocking more BD's would be any different than the sources we have?

I mean, i get what youre saying, but your simply stating the obvious. Videoscan doesnt report ALL the numbers. We get it. But why continue to harp on it? We can see the undertone of your posts, theyer blanketed by a tone of "Im saying this because if they were all counted the numbers would be different"

This is why elections are called with 50-75% of results already counted.

Neilsen reports the largest portion of HDM sales, and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that the trend on the uncounted portion would be any different or so outlandishly different than the other trends as to be meaningful.

Neilsen number while perhaps not 100% accurate are more than likely hitting the nail right on the head when it comes to marketshare, etc. If they weren't why would anyone use the data?

Baccusboy

11-30-07, 12:08 PM

You know, for years, we had big news organizations like CBS, ABC, and NBC calling election winners with less than 5 percent of the total vote in.

Nielsen has what...50 to 60 percent covered, and people still want to deny the figures?

theflux

11-30-07, 12:14 PM

The interesting thing here is that sales were almost 3:1 with a lot of volume over previous weeks numbers. Not only do you need software to release, it has to be quality software that people want to buy. That means it is day and date. The action genre sells the best as well, which the HD DVD side has only had with Transformers (with big sales). Bourne may sell well also, but not in the numbers that Transformers did, and personally, I don't think it will be in the same league when we see the numbers (I know I'm repeating myself here). Regardless, in the PR war, HD DVD is losing right now. Are they selling some players? Yes, but software sales have to follow or the point is moot. They like to downplay the PS3's, but it is the most significant piece of the puzzle at this point for many reasons...first, there are a lot of them in the marketplace (over 2 million in the US) and second, it still is the best Blu-ray player available, even without an IR remote (which is my only nit to pick with it!).

Good post. I've got to say I agree.

A fun question to think about is why Action blockbusters sell amazingly well on both formats, but somehow then they sell on the PS3 thats the "gamer demographic", but no comparative "demographic" is available for HD DVD owners.

I don't know why it is so hard for some people to accept that big explosions look and sound great on HD, so they sell great on HD.

(This wasn't directed at you Dave, just an observation)