This week's numbers will come from sales occuring from November 19 until November 25.

Another week is in the books (sort of) and another one begins. Once again, we get marketing tricks as the two consortiums strive for dominance.

The Blu team has the larger lineup of titles this week, lead by the Die Hard franchise, including this summer's Live Free or Die Hard. Also available is a box set of all the DH movies and each previous title separately. The other, notable title is Hairspray from New Line. While New Line is a neutral studio, Hairspray is a timed exclusive on BD. For those not familiar with the term, that means it is going to come to HD DVD, but not until later. The cynical among us might say this is one way WB/NL is testing the sales impact of dropping one format.

Speaking of neutral studios, Warner brings us a Led Zepplin concert.

HD DVD also has a sparse line up this week with only 2 titles exclusive to the format. First is Universal's Tremors, an oddly timed title as it would have fit in with last month's holiday theme more than this one. Second, and last, is Paramount's HD remaster of the classic Star Trek. This title has been long awaited and hotly debated as it is coming out only on HD DVD combo disk. That's right, there is no SD only version of this release. This tactic has long been touted as HD DVD's weapon of mass destruction to unleash. Predictions for its sales range from selling on the order of a regular DVD box set, to a failed DVD box set, still making it a hot selling HD title, to an HD flop/middle seller.

No matter what you believe, this is one of the titles that were a major part of the coup in getting Paramount exclusive. The others have failed to win HD DVD a week in the Nielsen/Video Scan Numbers. Can Captain Kirk, aided by an Amazon promo that is shifting 3 free movies with every A3 sold, finally beam up a win or will John McClain bring the Enterprise down by crashing his car into it? We find out on Friday, November 30th.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

This thread is not for the discussion of math, the advantages or disadvantages of either format, an analysis of the Nielsen numbers, any other source of sales figures (unless they are a reason you are making your prediction) or any insults.

I will post my prediction around 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. My prediction marks the end of the entry period. You may change your prediction any time up until then.

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.
Nielsen contest entries for 11/30/2007

NAME BD:HD
lonestarwings 80:20
ehomer 75:25
geko29 74:26
badboi 73:27
Winn 73:27
splinters 72:28
Jim Morrison 72:28
anttimonty 71:29
SGRSBSKIER 71:29
JackBee 71:29
wipron 71:29
Reylas 71:29
Husso 70:30
ataxic_dentist 70:30
tonngo0 70:30
Robert Spalding 70:30
frizshizzle 70:30
digicam95 70:30
merv43 70:30
hassoon 69:31
dc_pilgrim 69:31
CRFTony 69:31
edgebsl 69:31
Aresca 69:31
phansson 69:31
UxiSXRD 69:31
fitprod 69:31
Raxel 69:31
Rooper 69:31
DanTou 68:32
jkwest 68:32
TheCuze 68:32
Ronin_R6 68:32
neillkirn 68:32
TPigeon2006 68:32
LynxFX 68:32
manikin 68:32
Woodshed 68:32
Azumi 68:32
extra_hc 68:32
stefanpaulmayer 68:32
huntaar 68:32
tiger roach 67:33
eightninesuited 67:33
Rich Peterson 67:33
RDarrylR 67:33
spacejamz 67:33
Evan702 67:33
Sketcha 67:33
MASrules 67:33
MRMOTA 67:33
JimboTHX1138 67:33
Elwar 66:34
Chris NYC 66:34
ICBM99 66:34
Kemet 66:34
JAC6 66:34
IntoTheBlu 66:34
mossman22 66:34
wrobe73928 66:34
gljvd 65:35
khwiggins2 65:35
JoeFigueiredo 65:35
gdeep 65:35
Leviathin25 65:35
soremekun 65:35
chirpie 65:35
audiomixer 65:35
trondmm 65:35
user friendly 65:35
lomax 65:35
Calamus 64:36
ninjanki 64:36
habscolts 64:36
Vov76 64:36
shamus 64:36
elikhom 64:36
sciolist 64:36
ricwhite 63:37
ToddUGA 63:37
crimsona 63:37
donricouga 63:37
allargon 63:37
Will d s 63:37
JeffY 63:37
Assayer 63:37
nyg 62:38
basano 62:38
CochiseGuy 62:38
PrinceLH 62:38
gand41f 62:38
venk 62:38
jwdav 62:38
yampan 61:39
m1cst4rr 61:39
Brian Hampton 61:39
Optica 61:39
Greg Kettell 61:39
ottscay 61:39
Everdog 61:39
Bill0711 61:39
GizmoDVD 61:39
Kable 60:40
caesartheboxer 60:40
mswoods1 60:40
hammie34 60:40
Baccusboy 60:40
aaronwt 60:40
online 60:40
plazman 60:40
theflux 60:40
Grubert 60:40
eurotrance 59:41
Clark Burk 59:41
Lbarber 59:41
William 59:41
Andy_Dandy 58:42
dmcfan 58:42
dildatonr 58:42
coolhand 58:42
Jocky Wilson 58:42
bato 58:42
bolaar 58:42
vancamp 56:44
roadmanc 55:45
rcutlass70 55:45
Numanoid101 55:45
PopcornReady 55:45
alfbinet 55:45
iontyre 55:45
Blu-Devil 55:45
todrigo 55:45
randori 54:46
Steve Schauer 54:46
studiotan 54:46
Chris_TC 53:47
GmanAVS 53:47
darinp2 53:47
bori 52:48
chipvideo 52:48
Vader 52:48
bigdaveman 50:50
xradman 50:50
user4avsforum 50:50
jwebb1970 50:50
Kosty 49:51
rdjam 49:51
BuGsArEtAsTy 49:51
george king 48:52
SquirrelPhister 47:53
kcmurphy88 47:53
MattHD 46:54
Jonto81 45:55
briankmonkey 40:60
Shmack 30:70
kkozma 30:70



New Releases included in this weeks numbers:

HD DVD
Tremors (Universal)
Star Trek: The Original Series - Season One (Paramount)
Led Zeppelin: The Song Remains the Same (Warner)

BD
Badder Santa: The Unrated Version (Buena Vista)
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (Buena Vista)
Hairspray (New Line)
Die Hard (Fox)
Die Hard 2: Die Harder (Fox)
Die Hard with a Vengence (Fox)
The Die Hard Collection (Fox)
Live Free or Die Hard (Fox)
Pathfinder (Fox)
Rescue Dawn (MGM)
Led Zeppelin: The Song Remains the Same (Warner)

Perfect Picks:


4
trondmm (6,7,8,13)

3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
BrynRhys (3,4,11)
GmanAVS (4,5,15)
MASrules (7,8,16)

2
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)
Grubert (6,10)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7,11)
ToddUGA (8,11)
dumbswede (8,12)
extra_hc (10,12)
Kork (11,12)
TPigeon2006 (8,13)
gand41f (3, 13)
theflux (12,13)
oregoncalfroper (13,14)
Rooper (11,14)
Vov76 (10,14)
Kable (13,15)
aaronwt (6,15)
huntaar (11,16)
spacejamz (11,16)

1
frizshizzle (16)
Optica (16)
LynxFX (16)
bolaar (16)
user4avsforum (15)
george king (15)
allargon (15)
aaronwt (15)
MarekM (14)
phansson (14)
geko29 (14)
MrXpress (14)
venk (14)
Brian Hampton (13)
theone2 (13)
chipvideo (13)
Reginald Trent (13)
mlankton (13)
bunkaroo (13)
wipron (13)
Greg Kettell (13)
Neo1965 (13)
Bill0711 (13)
rob71 (13)
anotheraviator (12)
frasersean (12)
SquirrelPhister (12)
GeorgeLV (12)
manikin (12)
lomax (12)
alfbinet (12)
neillkirn (12)
ack_bk (12)
stefanpaulmayer (12)
kevivoe (12)
ChristopherB (11)
edgebsl (11)
FortySix&2 (11)
user friendly (10)
Kemet (10)
Reylas (10)
Blu-Devil (10)
patrick99 (10)
pdusk88 (10)
philnerd (10)
PrinceLH (10)
SGRSBSKIER (9)
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
iontyre (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)


Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 74 3 75 (13) [60] 62 50 (12) [12] 65.14 65 64
2 90 4 88 (22) [73] 66 58 (8) [13] 68.3 68 68
3 94 9 75 (4) [11] 71 55 (16) [74] 68.46 69 70
4 98 6 81 (13) [69] 68 55*(13) [23] 69.27 71 72
5 107 3 70 (14) [89] 56 40 (16) [15] 59.64 60 60
6 122 11 70 (10) [87] 60 45 (15) [24] 62.29 62 62
7 132 14 72 (11) [67] 61 45 (16) [51] 61.26 62 62
8 139 22 74 (11) [38] 63 50 (13) [89] 61.99 62 63
9 137 1 69 (15) [130] 54 40 (14) [6] 60.47 61 60
10 146 11 83 (15) [35] 68 45 (23) [100] 64 64 64
11 150 10 78 (7) [15] 71 35 (36) [125] 66.41 67 70
12 184 15 76 (25) [68] 51 2 (49) [101] 47.91 49 51
13 174 17 70 (15) [99] 55 20 (35) [58] 56.34 57 55
14 172 8 86 (15) [21] 71 27 (44) [143] 62.51 65 68
15 177 6 93 (28) [163] 65 48 (17) [9] 74.20 75 75
16 177 7 72 (6) [16] 66 20 (46) [154] 59 60 60
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

*outrageous guess ignored

(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion. The mods made it clear that going OT in the new thread would not be tolerated. The game is currently getting over 90 entries per week. Those 90 posts would clutter up the main Nielsen thread.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) publishes the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

5- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVD, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

6- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert has confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

October6, 2006 list of contributors. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=75416&d=1171406427)

7- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).

60:40

64:36

Gotta think this is the HD-DVD next (last?) great chance this year with the Amazon deal and Star Trek.

46:54

I have a feeling HD-DVD will push things up a bit this week.

58:42

73:27

48:52 because of the Star Trek: Season 1 release.

70 30

67:33

Yippie keyah....

59:41

68:32

56:44

65:35

There is no DVD only version so how the Star Trek titles are counted is a big factor. If they had a DVD only version my vote would be 80:20 but factoring that in I think HD DVD should take it just not sure by how much yet..

70:30

52:48

61:39

68:32

I have been consistently underestimating when will i learn damn my +- 4
:o

Star Trek is selling so poorly, i've read that a few stores havent shifted more then 1 copy. Its pretty aweful. I hear its expected to only sell 10-20k copies total, so this should be a BD landslide.

71:29 BD:HD

Star Trek is selling so poorly, i've read that a few stores havent shifted more then 1 copy. Its pretty aweful. I hear its expected to only sell 10-20k copies total, so this should be a BD landslide.

71:29 BD:HD

I think you've failed to factor this (http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/11/22/star-trek-hd-dvd-phaser-promo-details-uncloaked/) into your calculations. ;)

ted

62 Blu
38 HD DVD

hd 60:40 bd

69:31

64:36

68:32

I bet many early adopters are Star Trek fans... But they probably are Die Hard fans too. And, Star Trek is so expensive...

72:28

80:20

68:32

I bet many early adopters are Star Trek fans... But they probably are Die Hard fans too. And, Star Trek is so expensive...

You should rent 'Die Hard 1' the PQ is that bad.

You should rent 'Die Hard 1' the PQ is that bad.

I disagree. I watched the movie expecting to see bad picture quality, but was actually pleased with it.

Certainly not perfect, but Fox is well on there way to becoming the top HDM studio in terms of picture quality. Although, Disney is by far the best in terms of good releases.

Getting this right is sure damn hard.

Must...not...give up :p

69:31

50:50 - My money is on the trekkies

71:29

63:37

61:39

55:45

69:31 in favor of Blu-ray.

Allan

63:37

50:50

69:31

58:42

75 : 25

70:30

66:34.

65:35

47:53 -- For the first time in memory, HD has outsold BD on Amazon all week so I give them the edge.

BD 67:33 hd dvd

69:31

49:51 HD DVD finally wins

bd continues to dominate.

70:30

I disagree. I watched the movie expecting to see bad picture quality, but was actually pleased with it.

Certainly not perfect, but Fox is well on there way to becoming the top HDM studio in terms of picture quality. Although, Disney is by far the best in terms of good releases.

With everyone critizing DH 1 so much i was expecting a horror show, i was pleasantly surprised. I thought die hard looked pretty good, especially for a 20 year old film i just don't get what people are complaining about. The LFE on the DTS HD MA track was awesome as well.

I also think people are overestimating the affect of the star treck season 1, it is too expensive and old. I understand that there are star treck fanatics who will rush to pick this up, i just don't see it selling more then 10 -15 thousand copies.

66:34

Blu-ray 69:31 HDDVD

Question: Are the BD Bogo deals still in effect for this week we're guessing, or are those all expired yet? And if they're still in effect, do we know when they're expected to end? Just curious.

53:47

60:40

58:42

I am really confused by the "star trek will win the week" comments.

Did I miss something? Is this going to outsell "transformers"?

Guesses are all over the place this week. Lots of variables - Black Friday sales, Star Trek, Die Hard, Amazon 3 for 2 sale for both formats - anything could happen!

71-29

65:45

-edit-

Yes, I meant 65:35, the extra 10% is for the possible influx of new hdm owners. :D

65:45
:D

Now there's an optimist! Wants both sides to do well!

64:36

I am really confused by the "star trek will win the week" comments.

Did I miss something? Is this going to outsell "transformers"?

Don't want to get in to it here but this is the way I see it:

1. Star trek season 1 only released on HD DVD Combo

2. A lot of the Old star trek fans are now in IT jobs (generalisation) which are reasonably well paid.

3. Even though they might not have HD DVD players they will buy for the DVD side (most trekkies I know are fanatical buyers - will buy on day of release)

actually want to change my guess

45:55

66:34

I think Star Trek will flop on the combo, should slightly increase from what HD-DVD only would do, but nowhere near validate the decision not to release on DVD.

Edit; And I can imagine there are already plans underway for the DVD version.

60:40

Recently these damn numbers are so hard to predict. It's all fickle with the BOGO's, holiday sales, and now combo-only releases. Damn you Nielsen! Damn youuuuuuuuu!

The last few weeks have had very strange results, and I have no idea how this week will play out. I think the Star Trek set is too expensive to have a real impact, though.

65:35

64:36

56 entries to this point.

60:40

58:42

59:41

58:42

55:45

Next week...look out

68:32

Die Hard will sell HUGE.
Santa Clause will move copies.
Hairspray will be ENORMOUS.
Rescue Dawn is still a new actiony day-and-date release, which usually sell well.

Star Trek will move decent numbers, and while I think the whole combo-only approach is a great one (one Universal should have employed from the beginning, along with lower pricing), I think Paramount has shot themselves in the foot with this one. The trekkies with cash will love it, but $140 plus is a lot to ask for one season of an old show.

This is also Black Friday week here, folks, so who knows anyway. A lot of variables to take into consideration, but I think the shoppers will be more tuned into the holiday hits, like Die Hard, Hairspray, and to an extent Santa Clause for the kiddies.

67:33

61:39

69:31

69:31

63/37

66:34

68:32

60:40

10 free discs with players count towards these numbers, making a difference for HD-DVD. When it comes down to actually purchasing titles, there will be trouble.

61:39

65:35

HD DVD had a very strong week - DVD Empire showed 55:45 and Amazon showed a heavy lead for HD DVD. More HD DVD players sold recently may help account for this.

I'm going for an HD DVD lead on Nielsen for the week.

49:51 BD:HD

67:33

HD DVD had a very strong week - DVD Empire showed 55:45 and Amazon showed a heavy lead for HD DVD. More HD DVD players sold recently may help account for this.

I'm going for an HD DVD lead on Nielsen for the week.

49:51 BD:HD

Huh?

DVDEmpire

* Week of Nov. 20th * 33.90% HD-DVD * 66.10% Blu-ray

I see the pace staying about the same as the last couple weeks:

67:33

Watching Star Trek on Amazon did nothing to inspire confidence in its sales. I expected a lot more, but it never broke the top 100 in DVD during it's release week. Here's a place where box sets thrive as well.

Regardless, due to the other sales, HD DVD dominated over at amazon.

I'm guessing:

55:45

68:32

63:37

79 entries.

Come on people! I do not want to send out 100+ reminders.

62:38

Huh?

DVDEmpire

* Week of Nov. 20th * 33.90% HD-DVD * 66.10% Blu-ray
We are talking about the week ending 11/25 - so the closest comparison would be DVD Empire's week ending 11/27, which is currently at 47:53 BD:HD, which is even higher than when I checked it yesterday....

No question that HD DVD has had a very strong week, despite numerous BD releases...

55:45 Bd

So you're saying that "Week of Nov. 27th" over there is for the week ending Nov 27th?

We are talking about the week ending 11/25 - so the closest comparison would be DVD Empire's week ending 11/27, which is currently at 47:53 BD:HD, which is even higher than when I checked it yesterday....

No question that HD DVD has had a very strong week, despite numerous BD releases...

You have it backwards. What you call week end is the day it begins.

I think the star trek sales are overrated. I'd say a nice 63:37 this week

62:38

66:34
Bd:hd

40:60

64:36

55:45

64:36

I have a feeling ST might surprise some people but I think BR will still take the week.

Going to go with 54:46

ok 65:35

just a dumb guess but i think it could go higher for blu but i think the volume is so low that it makes the weekly numbers so variable.

Do you will a dual format player and 50 HD DVD/BD's or is it a large cash jackpot?

59:41

62:38

52:48

67:33

We are talking about the week ending 11/25 - so the closest comparison would be DVD Empire's week ending 11/27, which is currently at 47:53 BD:HD, which is even higher than when I checked it yesterday....

No question that HD DVD has had a very strong week, despite numerous BD releases...

How do you call 66:34 a respectable week?

How do you call 66:34 a respectable week?

The only thing I see is that Toshibas price cut didn't help the software sales, but did manage to scare off Onkyo.

The only thing I see is that Toshibas price cut didn't help the software sales, but did manage to scare off Onkyo.

+1

68:32

58:42

60:40

68:32

The only thing I see is that Toshibas price cut didn't help the software sales, but did manage to scare off Onkyo.
It actually scared the BDA into lowering their prices on all players across the board and wekly BOGO offers and the buy a PS3 and get 15 movies free offers etc. to stay competitive.

Toshibas cost for the discounted A-3 is probably 1/10 of what it is costing the BDA to stay competitive at this stage. Maintaining a 40% market share for standalone players and a 60% share of software sales is 'more' than critical for the BDA at this point. The actual gap in software sales - measured in units and $ is pretty insignificant. Less than what a single DVD like Hot Fuzz (not a blockbuster) sells in a week!

So much for perspective :)

How do you call 66:34 a respectable week?
Because you came within around 20K of total units sold and you did not have to resort to a BOGO to achieve this. And this following the week when Sony had the most dramatic price cuts in the history of a game console (which probably accounts for 90% of BD movie sales and hardly moves any games).

so much for perspective :)

My prediction is 60:40

58:42

Alright... Forever the optomist... Haven't been right or even close once, no need to change that. :D

30:70

OK, I'm probably totally off my rocker this time, but I will go out on a limb and against the grain to pick:

49 : 51

Too many wood analogies?

64:36 for Blu-ray. The Star Trek set is really an odd one to manage.

Edit: I was thinking one thing and posting another.

64:36

103 entries. Time for the reminders.


I have a feeling ST might surprise some people but I think BR will still take the week.

Whatever it does, it will surprise some people.

I took a bath on last weeks prediction after two successful ones in a row.
62:38

I think if Star Trek streeted for $60-$70 like the other HD Boxsets, it would be an impressive win for HD simply due to the fact that there is no SD DVD version. The ridiculous $130 street price will keep HD AND SD fans on the sidelines waiting for sales and/or price drops.

67: 33 for blu

65:35

65:35

61:39 Bd:hd

61:39 With dvdempire back, I am no longer flying blind.

69:31

66:34

65:35

Br 55:45 Hd

72:28

-Splints

70:30

68:32

61:39

You have it backwards. What you call week end is the day it begins.Sorry Winn, I believe that you are incorrect. The week of Nov 27th has been up on DVD Empire's site for days now. That would be impossible if they were reporting based on the date of the start of the week. Tomorrow, they will start reporting for the next week, with Dec 4th showing.

I have a feeling ST might surprise some people but I think BR will still take the week.

Going to go with 54:46

Sorry Winn, I believe that you are incorrect. The week of Nov 27th has been up on DVD Empire's site for days now. That would be impossible if they were reporting based on the date of the start of the week. Tomorrow, they will start reporting for the next week, with Dec 4th showing.

They start tracking the week on Monday, with the preorders for that week going up. We'll find out in less than 24 hours.

Maybe they have changed, but they have always tracked the week from the release date, not the end date before now.

52:48

They start tracking the week on Monday, with the preorders for that week going up. We'll find out in less than 24 hours.

Maybe they have changed, but they have always tracked the week from the release date, not the end date before now.No probs Winn :) Curious to know myself - we'll check it out tomorrow.

I am getting rather excited about this week's Nielsen numbers, however. It's a very different week to most that have gone before. On the hdgamedb amazon tracker, HD DVD has been leading the Top 100 chart for over a week now - which implies that a number of new HD DVD owners are buying, since catalog movies are selling, not just new releases.

The suspense over the next 3 days is going to do me in! :D

No probs Winn :) Curious to know myself - we'll check it out tomorrow.

I am getting rather excited about this week's Nielsen numbers, however. It's a very different week to most that have gone before. On the hdgamedb amazon tracker, HD DVD has been leading the Top 100 chart for over a week now - which implies that a number of new HD DVD owners are buying, since catalog movies are selling, not just new releases.

The suspense over the next 3 days is going to do me in! :D

Or it implies that the 3 free movies that Amazon was giving away with every HD DVD player purchased were impacting the sales ratings. In either case, this is not the place to discuss this.

I would say that I don't have a clue anymore, but that would imply a presumptuous assumption that at some point I thought I did have a clue. :p

At any rate, I'll go with:

62:38

70:30

61:39

50:50

60:40

No probs Winn :) Curious to know myself - we'll check it out tomorrow.

I am getting rather excited about this week's Nielsen numbers, however. It's a very different week to most that have gone before. On the hdgamedb amazon tracker, HD DVD has been leading the Top 100 chart for over a week now - which implies that a number of new HD DVD owners are buying, since catalog movies are selling, not just new releases.

The suspense over the next 3 days is going to do me in! :D

errrrr, i KNOW that you know those catalogs were being bundles with HD DVD players.....seriously, please dont try to spin that into people rushing out to buy catalogs.

60:40

50:50
No particular reason, just sounds good.

68/32

54:46

127 entries. Looks like Thanksgiving weekend ate up some participation.

59-41

Seventy : Thirty

54/46

68:32

I predict 58:42!

Looks great for HD DVD these days!

66:34 Blu

Very hard to predict with so many giveaways being counted these days. These numbers are becoming meaningless now, movies given away with significantly more expensive items (like high-def players or game machines) should really not be counted. (This goes for both sides :()

Normally, with Die Hards coming in quintuplets (4 individual movies + boxset), I'd predict something in the range of 3:1 but looks like there are a fair number of giveaways on the HD DVD side this week so I'm going with a

62:38

prediction.

enjoy
gandalf :o

61:39

69:31

65:35

71:29

64:36 for bd(not sure if I already placed my prediction this week...)

64:36

63:37

63/37

68:32 BD for me.

142 entries with about 12 hours left.

Winn,

I would like to change my guess to

69:31

67:33

BD : HD
55:45

Boy are we all over the lot this week!

I think overhang from last week will kick in in HD DVD's favour. Of course, I could be wrong. In this game, you can bet on it as a sure thing! :eek:

Bd:hd
66:34

68:32

71:29

I was going to go lower originally, I know Amazon is not a good source, but Star Trek is like $50 less than CC and if I wanted it thats where I would get it, I cant even find it on BB website, and it didn't get that high on Amazon.

65:35

I predict 63:37.

47:53

I'm going to let my prediction from last week ride . . .

30:70 in favor of HD DVD. :)

First time to do this here, so I'l go the wishy-washy "stalemate" route

50:50 ;)

I'm not expecting much from Star Trek, but with deals including 3 extra free discs (not in the box) with some Toshiba players and everything else going on (like Black Friday), I'm going to guess:

53:47

--Darin

53 : 47

Dissapointing Shrek III last week :( but am still gunning to join the elusive trondmm at the top :)

Numbers were leaked by Hollywood Reporter. Are those accurate? Won't post here as not to muck the thread up.

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4a

Hollywood reporter from today.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4a

20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's "Live Free or Die Hard," released the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, generated first-week sales that were 20% ahead of projections, in addition to nearly 100,000 Blu-ray Disc copies, said Steve Feldstein, the division's senior vp corporate and marketing communications.


The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD.

Wow.

Whoah, since the cat's already out of the bag, I'm going to abstain from voting this week. Surprising numbers nonetheless - I was going to guess 68:32.

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4a

:eek::eek:

Just goes to prove that Amazon salesrank and DVD Empire are not accurate prediction tools (at all).

Just goes to prove that Amazon salesrank and DVD Empire are not accurate prediction tools (at all).

Yep.

The Big chains still hold all the cards when it comes to HDM sales.

Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.

Fantastic week, and that doesn't even include all those blu-rays rung up at Walmart!

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4aI saw that just a little after putting in my guess of 53:47. Now I wish I hadn't voted. :) I'm guessing that technically I could change my vote, but I think that would be cheating and if those numbers are right, I figure I should take it like a man for my worst week yet as far as guesses (off by 20). I figured if 20k Toshiba players sold with 3 extra free discs that would be 60k counted on the HD DVD side (not even counting what those people would buy on their own) and more if more players sold with those extra discs.

--Darin

74:26

I give up on guessing. Lately I havent even been close. This has been all over the map. One week I over guess Blu-ray the next HD-DVD. I think Ill just go watch some movies.

FWIW, my guess (two posts up) was posted via quick reply from the first page. I only read the info on this page after making it. But if Winn wants to toss me out because I was too late, I'll take it like a man.

For the first week, we are done early. It had been a long time since there was an early leak. Since the official end is my posting my prediction, I am going with 73-27.

Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.I've been checking some stores and it seems to be selling very slowly. One Costco has had 11 of them each time I or a friend checked over a few days (starting on the Tuesday it came out). Another looked like they might have sold 3 copies by Sunday (out of 11). A local Best Buy had one copy on the new release shelf each time I checked, although maybe they were restocking it. It wouldn't surprise me if it didn't even get into the top 5 for HD DVD. Not sure if HMM has stopped giving us weekly top 10 overall and top 5 for the formats though (since they didn't last week).

--Darin

FWIW, my guess (two posts up) was posted via quick reply from the first page. I only read the info on this page after making it. But if Winn wants to toss me out because I was too late, I'll take it like a man.

I'm going to take it.

I had included warnings about early number leaks in the first weeks of the contest ending things. I stopped including them. Obviously, I need to put them back in the first post.

It is rare that there are any new posts after 8PM Eastern anyway. last week was an exception. Something like this has always been a risk when it comes to posting late.

I've been checking some stores and it seems to be selling very slowly. One Costco has had 11 of them each time I or a friend checked over a few days (starting on the Tuesday it came out). Another looked like they might have sold 3 copies by Sunday (out of 11). A local Best Buy had one copy on the new release shelf each time I checked, although maybe they were restocking it. It wouldn't surprise me if it didn't even get into the top 5 for HD DVD. Not sure if HMM has stopped giving us weekly top 10 overall and top 5 for the formats though (since they didn't last week).

--Darin

I think last week was only because of the holiday and the desire to get out of the office as quickly as possible.

Holy smokes. I completely thought Star Trek:TOS was going to have a huge impact considering it was only offered as a combo and many would buy it despite only playing the DVD side.

Fantastic week, and that doesn't even include all those blu-rays rung up at Walmart!

I haven't been following HDM sales or voted lately. So can anyone tell me if BR had a more buy one get one free sales that would be reflected in those totals?

Guess i was pretty close. I predicted that Star Trek would be a HUGE disapointment, and the 3 free that count per hd dvd player has slowed down considerably. Not to mention that during black friday, frys had 4 free blu-ray movies with every 40 gig ps3 sold, and i saw an ENTIRE pallet of them sold. Thats just 1 frys. So again, BD outsells HD DVD nearly 3:1 when it counts, the holiday season.

Guess i was pretty close. I predicted that Star Trek would be a HUGE disapointment, and the 3 free that count per hd dvd player has slowed down considerably. Not to mention that during black friday, frys had 4 free blu-ray movies with every 40 gig ps3 sold, and i saw an ENTIRE pallet of them sold. Thats just 1 frys. So again, BD outsells HD DVD nearly 3:1 when it counts, the holiday season.

well the star trek set cost MORE than the player, so it was pretty much dead in the water to begin with.

More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.

For the first week, we are done early. It had been a long time since there was an early leak. Since the official end is my posting my prediction, I am going with 73-27.

winn, that is pretty darn funny.

Didn't see this big of a win for Blu Ray after the wal mart hd dvd fire sale......

I haven't been following HDM sales or voted lately. So can anyone tell me if BR had a more buy one get one free sales that would be reflected in those totals?They did have some on Fox titles at Frys. They also had the deal with free discs at Frys with 40GB PS3s mentioned. HD DVD had deals for $199 for an HD-A3 with 10 free discs on Amazon (3 of which would have counted) which shot the HD-A3 up into the top 3 in electronics on Amazon. They also had 10 free discs with the HD-A30 and HD-A35 on Amazon (3 of which would have counted here again). I may be missing some other deals, like some on Amazon. HD DVD was doing much better pretty much the whole week on Amazon for disc rankings, so we can see that it didn't really correlate with Nielsen (if these numbers are right), even though it is included in the Nielsen numbers (according to everything reliable I've read).
More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.Without seeing the actual numbers and going by estimates of what almost 100k of Live Free or Die Hard might mean for how much Nielsen would count as well as Dave Vaughn's comment about Shrek the Third doing about half of Ratatouille (1st week to 1st week), it looks to me like LFoDH may have done about 3x Shrek the Third and 1.5x Ratatouille, despite the box office takes in the US being:

Shrek the Third: $321 million
Ratatouille: $206 million
Live Free or Die Hard: $135 million

Should probably tell us some things.

BTW: I just realized that they probably counted the box sets for LFoDH, but even so, it is interesting.

--Darin

well the star trek set cost MORE than the player, so it was pretty much dead in the water to begin with.

More surprised that Shrek 3 seems to have pretty much bombed on HDDVD, given that it took in alot more $$ than Ratat during its theatrical run.

How does Star Trek cost MORE then the player? Isnt the A3 299 MSRP? Star Trek is 199 MSRP. The A2 isnt being made anymore and discontinued, so please don't refer to its close out price as what you can get one for. Thanks.

winn, that is pretty darn funny.

Didn't see this big of a win for Blu Ray after the wal mart hd dvd fire sale......

I was planning on a serious prediction of 71:29. I was going to to tweak it up or down 2 points based on the usual Hollywood Reporter article and which titles lead each format.

Obviously, I decided to tweak it up 2 points.

This is why I am not seriously playing. Going last and being unable to post too late is a huge advantage.

If these are the numbers, and I cannot think of a reason to doubt them, this is our worst week ever as a group. Only 3 people guessed too high.

73:27 (And yes, I came in, was about to put down 68:32 and saw that number above). This ruins the usual antici.......pation that happens on friday. I should have checked back earlier, but there's so much stuff to do here... ... :D

---

Edit : I was really looking for Fox to make some announcement about DieHard sales. If they did and claim > 100k sold, I was going to go 75:25, but since they didn't, there's no way to know for sure. If they sold a lot more than 100k, obviously 80:20 would be a high watermark, but it would be very difficult to move from 75:25 to 80:20 even if that happened. So obviously DieHard did not sell 100k (even though they came close, but no cigar --- very close to 100k is still not 100k). (combined with the box set, of course).

Well Live Free and Die Hard did 100,000 Blu-ray units , so the rest of the HDM sales must have been fairly average then. That seems to have dominated the ratios.

That makes next weeks numbers all the more interesting.

Well Live Free and Die Hard did 100,000 Blu-ray units , so the rest of the HDM sales must have been fairly average then. That seems to have dominated the ratios.

That makes next weeks numbers all the more interesting.

Yes, with Risiduals of strong sellers like Spiderman 3/Spiderman Trilogy, Cars, Ratatouille, Die Hard 4/Die Hard Box Set and others vs risiduals of.... Transformers/Shrek 3.

Interesting is one way to put it.

70 30

dahhh less then 3% of :p

69:31

Are there any objections to me entering the scores now?

Well Live Free and Die Hard did 100,000 Blu-ray units , so the rest of the HDM sales must have been fairly average then.How do you figure that? Black Friday is one of the times you've been talking about since the first half of the year. Not only did you get $199 HD DVD players, they were name brand and not just Chinese players with cheap names on them, and many of them came with 10 free discs total, 3 of which should have counted toward these numbers. And you claimed before that people buy 1-2 discs when they buy a player (although might not apply to those who got 3 extras).

How many discs do you think counted for HD DVD this week, including the 3 free ones with many players and all the ones that sold with or without Black Friday purchases of HD DVD players? How many players do you think HD DVD sold during this week all important week? Do you think that all added up to less than 70k discs on the HD DVD side? If not, why did you make that claim?

--Darin

69:31

I am almost tempted to accept the guesses that likely are from people not realizing we have early numbers.

66:34.

Not too bad if 73:27 is the right number. Not too good either, of course. But that is a surprising number, far beyond what I thought would be the best case for Blu-Ray. The reasons for this ratio mystify me given the recent Toshiba sales and the relatively modest ratios we saw with SM3 and the Pixar movies. Perhaps Sony is selling more BDP-S300s than I suspected or PS3 owners are now buying Blu-Rays, or the PS3 price-cuts have been that significant in terms of improving sales. Or perhaps it is just an abberation.

Weird.

69:31

68:32

69:31

68:32

I get yet more tempted to accept these.

If the 73:27 ends up being true. I cant wait to hear rdjams response to this.

So much for Star Trek being a trump card.

If the 73:27 ends up being true. I cant wait to hear rdjams response to this.

So much for Star Trek being a trump card.

likewise. There wasnt even a BD sale advantage. HD DVD had 3 freebies scanned with every amazon purchase. Man, this just has to be awful news for HD DVD defendants.

Now, I really have to wonder what the numbers will be on the 4th. Superbad and PotC 3 should really move a lot of discs. Could we have an 80+ week?

73:27

hd-dvd is dieing.

i also forgot HD DVD had $15 movies on amazon as well........oh boy.

Well Live Free and Die Hard did 100,000 Blu-ray units , so the rest of the HDM sales must have been fairly average then. That seems to have dominated the ratios.

That makes next weeks numbers all the more interesting.

Hey Kosty, I'm very curious about Star Trek.. I expected quite an impact from SD DVD watchers buying the set. Maybe it was priced too high for all the Trekkies or they didn't aprove of the CGI, little of both?

Curious, are you going to bet on HD DVD next week just like this week?

No probs Winn :) Curious to know myself - we'll check it out tomorrow.

I am getting rather excited about this week's Nielsen numbers, however. It's a very different week to most that have gone before. On the hdgamedb amazon tracker, HD DVD has been leading the Top 100 chart for over a week now - which implies that a number of new HD DVD owners are buying, since catalog movies are selling, not just new releases.

The suspense over the next 3 days is going to do me in! :D

Well, Jammer, there is good news, bad news and really bad news. The good news is, no more suspense. The bad news the numbers are not what you are hoping. The really bad news is that it looks like I was right about DVD Empire, and I can be quite insufferable when I am right. :p

I'll be posting the results in a few minutes. I can change the score if these numbers prove incorrect.

...........

Technically, it is 2.7:1, but that video cracked me up. However, some may take offense to it, so please remove it before we get shut down.

Thanks.

Nielsen contest results for 11/30/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 73:27

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
MASrules 67:33 17 3.29
Rooper 69:31 9 3.44
huntaar 68:32 12 3.58
Assayer 63:37 10 3.70
JeffY 63:37 15 3.80
stefanpaulmayer 68:32 15 3.87
Everdog 61:39 17 4.00
Azumi 68:32 17 4.00
Reylas 71:29 17 4.00
extra_hc 68:32 16 4.00
lomax 65:35 17 4.06
Bill0711 61:39 8 4.13
gand41f 62:38 16 4.19
merv43 70:30 5 4.20
Raxel 69:31 16 4.25
Grubert 60:40 15 4.27
JAC6 66:34 11 4.27
manikin 68:32 17 4.29
Woodshed 68:32 10 4.30
fitprod 69:31 16 4.31
shamus 64:36 16 4.38
theflux 60:40 17 4.41
Sketcha 67:33 17 4.41
LynxFX 68:32 17 4.47
venk 62:38 4 4.50
MRMOTA 67:33 2 4.50
Will d s 63:37 13 4.54
trondmm 65:35 13 4.54
TPigeon2006 68:32 17 4.59
user friendly 65:35 10 4.60
UxiSXRD 69:31 17 4.76
geko29 74:26 17 4.76
Evan702 67:33 7 4.86
todrigo 55:45 15 4.87
Vov76 64:36 13 4.92
online 60:40 17 4.94
spacejamz 67:33 16 4.94
elikhom 64:36 2 5.00
Blu-Devil 55:45 16 5.06
phansson 69:31 12 5.08
plazman 60:40 11 5.09
aaronwt 60:40 17 5.12
digicam95 70:30 12 5.17
darinp2 53:47 17 5.18
RDarrylR 67:33 10 5.20
iontyre 55:45 14 5.21
chirpie 65:35 13 5.23
hammie34 60:40 17 5.29
Aresca 69:31 10 5.30
soremekun 65:35 16 5.31
neillkirn 68:32 12 5.33
habscolts 64:36 9 5.33
Baccusboy 60:40 14 5.36
allargon 63:37 16 5.38
ottscay 61:39 15 5.40
Kemet 66:34 10 5.40
donricouga 63:37 16 5.44
ICBM99 66:34 15 5.47
Ronin_R6 68:32 14 5.50
wipron 71:29 11 5.55
audiomixer 65:35 5 5.60
eightninesuited 67:33 17 5.65
BuGsArEtAsTy 49:51 12 5.67
CochiseGuy 62:38 12 5.67
Rich Peterson 67:33 3 5.67
crimsona 63:37 16 5.69
Jim Morrison 72:28 15 5.87
PrinceLH 62:38 8 5.88
Leviathin25 65:35 10 5.90
mswoods1 60:40 12 6.00
coolhand 58:42 10 6.00
TheCuze 68:32 3 6.00
splinters 72:28 3 6.00
JimboTHX1138 67:33 1 6.00
ToddUGA 63:37 10 6.40
Jocky Wilson 58:42 7 6.43
edgebsl 69:31 8 6.50
jwdav 62:38 2 6.50
Greg Kettell 61:39 7 6.57
JoeFigueiredo 65:35 6 6.67
JackBee 71:29 10 6.70
Winn 73:27 17 6.71
bato 58:42 5 6.80
frizshizzle 70:30 5 6.80
GmanAVS 53:47 16 6.81
caesartheboxer 60:40 11 7.00
Optica 61:39 5 7.00
gdeep 65:35 2 7.00
lonestarwings 80:20 1 7.00
IntoTheBlu 66:34 1 7.00
mossman22 66:34 1 7.00
wrobe73928 66:34 1 7.00
SGRSBSKIER 71:29 13 7.08
MattHD 46:54 7 7.14
badboi 73:27 3 7.33
Jonto81 45:55 13 7.38
Lbarber 59:41 8 7.38
CRFTony 69:31 12 7.42
Kable 60:40 10 7.50
bolaar 58:42 2 7.50
jkwest 68:32 15 7.53
Chris_TC 53:47 9 7.56
ninjanki 64:36 5 7.60
rdjam 49:51 16 7.63
Brian Hampton 61:39 9 7.67
studiotan 54:46 5 7.80
tiger roach 67:33 4 8.00
hassoon 69:31 3 8.00
Husso 70:30 3 8.00
george king 48:52 10 8.10
khwiggins2 65:35 8 8.13
PopcornReady 55:45 10 8.30
Robert Spalding 70:30 9 8.33
ehomer 75:25 3 8.33
alfbinet 55:45 8 8.38
user4avsforum 50:50 13 8.46
m1cst4rr 61:39 6 8.50
Chris NYC 66:34 2 8.50
yampan 61:39 8 8.63
Clark Burk 59:41 6 8.67
ricwhite 63:37 3 8.67
dc_pilgrim 69:31 6 8.83
Numanoid101 55:45 8 9.00
ataxic_dentist 70:30 6 9.00
sciolist 64:36 1 9.00
tonngo0 70:30 9 9.11
briankmonkey 40:60 17 9.41
DanTou 68:32 8 9.50
rcutlass70 55:45 6 9.50
anttimonty 71:29 6 9.50
Calamus 64:36 3 9.67
dmcfan 58:42 6 9.83
Kosty 49:51 17 9.88
xradman 50:50 11 10.00
Elwar 66:34 5 10.60
bigdaveman 50:50 9 10.67
dildatonr 58:42 2 11.00
basano 62:38 2 11.00
SquirrelPhister 47:53 8 11.13
chipvideo 52:48 6 11.50
eurotrance 59:41 2 11.50
bori 52:48 6 11.67
GizmoDVD 61:39 1 12.00
vancamp 56:44 2 12.50
nyg 62:38 2 12.50
kkozma 30:70 11 13.82
gljvd 65:35 2 14.00
William 59:41 1 14.00
Steve Schauer 54:46 2 15.50
roadmanc 55:45 2 15.50
randori 54:46 2 16.00
Andy_Dandy 58:42 8 16.63
Vader 52:48 1 21.00
Shmack 30:70 16 21.56
jwebb1970 50:50 1 23.00
kcmurphy88 47:53 1 26.00



Perfect Picks:


4
trondmm (6,7,8,13)

3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
BrynRhys (3,4,11)
GmanAVS (4,5,15)
MASrules (7,8,16)

2
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)
Grubert (6,10)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7,11)
ToddUGA (8,11)
dumbswede (8,12)
extra_hc (10,12)
Kork (11,12)
TPigeon2006 (8,13)
gand41f (3, 13)
theflux (12,13)
oregoncalfroper (13,14)
Rooper (11,14)
Vov76 (10,14)
Kable (13,15)
aaronwt (6,15)
huntaar (11,16)
spacejamz (11,16)

1
badboi (17)
Winn (17*)
frizshizzle (16)
Optica (16)
LynxFX (16)
bolaar (16)
user4avsforum (15)
george king (15)
allargon (15)
aaronwt (15)
MarekM (14)
phansson (14)
geko29 (14)
MrXpress (14)
venk (14)
Brian Hampton (13)
theone2 (13)
chipvideo (13)
Reginald Trent (13)
mlankton (13)
bunkaroo (13)
wipron (13)
Greg Kettell (13)
Neo1965 (13)
Bill0711 (13)
rob71 (13)
anotheraviator (12)
frasersean (12)
SquirrelPhister (12)
GeorgeLV (12)
manikin (12)
lomax (12)
alfbinet (12)
neillkirn (12)
ack_bk (12)
stefanpaulmayer (12)
kevivoe (12)
ChristopherB (11)
edgebsl (11)
FortySix&2 (11)
user friendly (10)
Kemet (10)
Reylas (10)
Blu-Devil (10)
patrick99 (10)
pdusk88 (10)
philnerd (10)
PrinceLH (10)
SGRSBSKIER (9)
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
iontyre (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)

*As the contest host, I was allowed to enter my guess after an early release.





Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 74 3 75 (13) [60] 62 50 (12) [12] 65.14 65 64
2 90 4 88 (22) [73] 66 58 (8) [13] 68.3 68 68
3 94 9 75 (4) [11] 71 55 (16) [74] 68.46 69 70
4 98 6 81 (13) [69] 68 55*(13) [23] 69.27 71 72
5 107 3 70 (14) [89] 56 40 (16) [15] 59.64 60 60
6 122 11 70 (10) [87] 60 45 (15) [24] 62.29 62 62
7 132 14 72 (11) [67] 61 45 (16) [51] 61.26 62 62
8 139 22 74 (11) [38] 63 50 (13) [89] 61.99 62 63
9 137 1 69 (15) [130] 54 40 (14) [6] 60.47 61 60
10 146 11 83 (15) [35] 68 45 (23) [100] 64 64 64
11 150 10 78 (7) [15] 71 35 (36) [125] 66.41 67 70
12 184 15 76 (25) [68] 51 2 (49) [101] 47.91 49 51
13 174 17 70 (15) [99] 55 20 (35) [58] 56.34 57 55
14 172 8 86 (15) [21] 71 27 (44) [143] 62.51 65 68
15 177 6 93 (28) [163] 65 48 (17) [9] 74.20 75 75
16 177 7 72 (6) [16] 66 20 (46) [154] 59 60 60
17 154 2** 80 (7) [3] 73 30 (43) [149] 62.06 63.5 68
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

*Outrageous guess ignored.
**One perfect guess from an early leak of the numbers.

god i was off by 8 and i still climbed higher in the pack! and i went above 4 even. i guess i just need everyone to be off even more then me :)

Winn, 73:27? Is that right? Where are you getting those numbers from?

Winn, 73:27? Is that right? Where are you getting those numbers from?They could have got it wrong, you know.

I almost Was going to vote 71 or 72. Still 69 not so far off. I didn't think Star Trek would have much of an effect. It didn't come out all that long ago on regular DVD and we all know high priced boxed sets just don't sell in volume.

I think Paramount is absolutely insane for that MSRP. The whole series I could maybe MAYBE see it justified... but one season of a 40 year old show? Insanity. And TOS is just about the only Trek I can stomach... good ol Kirk bagging the alien babes, kicking butt, and with that great jingoistic swagger. :D

Winn, 73:27? Is that right? Where are you getting those numbers from?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4a

Now, I really have to wonder what the numbers will be on the 4th. Superbad and PotC 3 should really move a lot of discs. Could we have an 80+ week?

It's now very possible. A couple months ago I predicted that the week ending 11/27 may be HD DVDs only chance at victory this year, and now I don't see how that can be possible. It's pretty obvious that the sheer sales volume of HDM sold each week is increasing at a steady pace, and the install base of Blu-ray players continues to outpace those from the other format. If it wasn't for Independence Day now being delayed, I'd say it would easily hit the 80:20 mark.

They could have got it wrong, you know.

True, they could be. But since I've been paying attention I haven't seen any leaked numbers be wrong yet.

Brandon

73:27

hd-dvd is dieing.

Tee hee! Posts like this make me chuckle. :)

If HMM comes out with something different, I can change it on Friday.

OK, I was trying to undershoot this week after the Rat week embarrassment but didn't expect to be this far off. I may need a vacation. :o

If HMM comes out with something different, I can change it on Friday.
One thing we'll find out is whether HMM is rounding to the nearest integer or rounding down. There's still a chance that my average will improve ever so slightly if they are rounding down. :D

enjoy
gandalf :o

Not too bad if 73:27 is the right number. Not too good either, of course. But that is a surprising number, far beyond what I thought would be the best case for Blu-Ray. The reasons for this ratio mystify me given the recent Toshiba sales and the relatively modest ratios we saw with SM3 and the Pixar movies. Perhaps Sony is selling more BDP-S300s than I suspected or PS3 owners are now buying Blu-Rays, or the PS3 price-cuts have been that significant in terms of improving sales. Or perhaps it is just an abberation.

Weird.

I'm rather miffed by these numbers. I didn't think Die Hard 4 was a potential 100K seller.

Without seeing the actual numbers and going by estimates of what almost 100k of Live Free or Die Hard might mean for how much Nielsen would count as well as Dave Vaughn's comment about Shrek the Third doing about half of Ratatouille (1st week to 1st week), it looks to me like LFoDH may have done about 3x Shrek the Third and 1.5x Ratatouille, despite the box office takes in the US being:

Shrek the Third: $321 million
Ratatouille: $206 million
Live Free or Die Hard: $135 million

Should probably tell us some things.

--Darin

Well, you can never forget that LFoDH is a movie that hits very squarely at the PS3 demographic. If I recall correctly, it was also pretty well received in terms of reviews. Shrek and Rat had a more broad appeal at the box office, but it doesn't appear that animated titles are going to fare very well in HDM sales.

hey everybody and Winn :)

I am sorry I missed few predictions, I will back home 6th december,...
I am on honeymoon trip deep in indian ocean for now :)

Glad to see some nice numbers for Blu-ray ;) :D

good luck you everybody with predictions.....

Marek

Well, you can never forget that LFoDH is a movie that hits very squarely at the PS3 demographic. If I recall correctly, it was also pretty well received in terms of reviews. Shrek and Rat had a more broad appeal at the box office, but it doesn't appear that animated titles are going to fare very well in HDM sales.

Ratatouille did well on high def. it doubled shrek 3. it's probably coming close to 100k soon. highest selling animated title to date on high def. It will have long legs. if any animated titles will hit big numbers they will be from disney/pixar because they're usually greatly reviewed.

IMO what we're seeing here, is that there's a huge difference between the buying trends of early adopters and the real world. Star Trek fans would automatically assume that there are many people out there who'll be willing to shell 135+$ for a special pack. But real people have real needs -- like making ends meet, buying warm clothes for the winter season, making sure that their families have everything they need.

I don't know where Paramount got the idea that Star Trek would turn things around for HD DVD, but with that kind of price tag, it was suicidal.

But it's not only Star Trek. It's the clash of the tastes of a few people vs the tastes of the general audiences. The Amazon and DVD Empire charts aren't mirrors of reality, they're only giving a virtual representation of what selected early adopters like to buy. Remember when Premonition was a dud in Amazon's charts and a few days later everybody was shocked that it had become the #1 hi-def hit of the week.

High School Musical 2 is another title that should perform very well for the same reasons -- real audiences have spouses and children, and many of them will consider this BD as an appropriate title to enjoy with the whole family.

People that participate on AVS, Blu-ray.com and other forums are mostly guys, and therefore the thinkset is sometimes skewed. ;) I'm wondering how many girlfriends and wives are now selecting and buying hi-def titles...

From today's Hollywood Reporter:
"The high-definition format war tilted even more heavily in favor of Blu-ray Disc despite a rash of inexpensive HD DVD players sold through Wal-Mart and other discount retailers in recent weeks. Nielsen VideoScan data for the week shows 72.6% of high-definition discs purchased by consumers were Blu-ray and just 27.4% were HD DVD. HD DVD players have been selling for as little as $98, one-fourth the lowest street price for a Blu-ray player."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i8d5ddf2904a0aae38936c0078ef4de4a

Oh ouch! Not a very good week for some folk. ;)

And I guessed right this week! :) Now bring on the prediction thread for next week!

edited

Nice numbers.

I was very wrong in my prediction as usual.

But still, nice.

-Brian

Good morning

Thanks to most posters who help maintain decorum in this thread and report any problematic posts for mods to handle rather than reply to them

several posts deleted/ infractions/ suspensions issued

Crap. If those numbers are true then I was way off again. My poor, poor average. :)