It is of my opinion that "to foretell the future - look back to the past." I see so many correlations between these two "era's" of Home Video.

VHS became the dominant format after a long format war. LD was introduced to improve the PQ and AQ. It ushered in the large screen display. It introduced features not found on VHS. It divided the market into casual TV watchers and real movie lovers. It birthed real Home Theater. And for the longest time - a single company carried the format - Pioneer. And it introduced the S-Video connection.

Retailers supported VHS - but not LD - you had to go to boutique stores or order online.

But LD was never successful in going mass market.

DVD has been the most successful and fastest mass adoption CE product in history. What VHS did in 20+ years - DVD accomplished in 10. Everything about the birth of DVD surpassed VHS with the exception of no record (came later)

Now we have HDM - once again - an improvement in PQ and AQ - with more features - and the introduction of the HDMI connection. And for HD DVD - one company making hardware - Toshiba.

And of course - the advancement of HT. Before, it took line doublers and line triplers to get a good image on a 120"+ screen - all very expensive hardware when they first came out. With HDM - just a PJ and an HD source with HDM the Apex of PQ/AQ.

Yes there was a format war with LD . . . LD versus CED. Now we are in the middle of a format war - and the format(s) mimic LD in almost every way especially the cost of movies - which for LD . . . never changed - $34.95 for 1 disc movies - $39.99 for 2 disc movies. And importing LD's was very popular.

Can and will HDM "break" the adage listed above?

Yes, and easily.

You're missing the most important component: the shift to HDTV.

VHS -> LD was all about buying new equipment, a new format (and something that look suspiciously like "old" fragile LPs), all for better PQ. It was nothing about a better TV.

DVD -> Hidef disc is being fueled not just by a desire for better PQ and features, but by "catching up" with the shiny new HDTV in the living room that is leagues above the 23" colour Magnavox we used to have in its place.

The format wars are a nuisance but all that the consumer really wants is something affordable to get more out of his investment in that 42" beauty his buddies are envious of. Given him a relatively risk-free entry to the world of hidef players -- impulse buy pricing (call it $199 or less), easy set-up, some existing movies he likes, a visible upgrade from his aging JVC DVD player -- and he's not going to fuss about this or that studio. He knows if it sells, the studios will release product. In the meantime, if the risk is low, he'll start enjoying more hidef on his HDTV with relatively little arm-twisting.

So, no, I don't think the VHS/LD compares very well to DVD/HDM.

Yes, and easily.

You're missing the most important component: the shift to HDTV.

VHS -> LD was all about buying new equipment, a new format (and something that look suspiciously like "old" fragile LPs), all for better PQ. It was nothing about a better TV.

DVD -> Hidef disc is being fueled not just by a desire for better PQ and features, but by "catching up" with the shiny new HDTV in the living room that is leagues above the 23" colour Magnavox we used to have in its place.

The format wars are a nuisance but all that the consumer really wants is something affordable to get more out of his investment in that 42" beauty his buddies are envious of. Given him a relatively risk-free entry to the world of hidef players -- impulse buy pricing (call it $199 or less), easy set-up, some existing movies he likes, a visible upgrade from his aging JVC DVD player -- and he's not going to fuss about this or that studio. He knows if it sells, the studios will release product. In the meantime, if the risk is low, he'll start enjoying more hidef on his HDTV with relatively little arm-twisting.

So, no, I don't think the VHS/LD compares very well to DVD/HDM.

I thank you for supporting my OP;)

How many millions and millions of RPTV's were sold before DVD came out in 1997? Versus how many LD players? (I believe somewhere between 1 and 3 million - please someone help with actual number)

To see HD on your brand new HDTV (other than the network channels) you are going to have to pay extra money. Many are rejecting HD because of this.

So the players (at least HD DVD) are "affordable/impulse priced." What about the movies to feed the player?

I didn't see any $2.98 priced HDM movies anywhere. Nor $5.00 nor $7.50. There are more DVD titles priced at those numbers than there are HD titles - from both formats!

What? Don't buy any? Just rent? The studios are NOT going to like that plan.

Analogy . . .

How many people take the time, effort and expense to go to the very best theater within 30 to 40 miles of where they live? Or do they just go to the closest one which may not have the best presentation? Lots of marginal theaters out there.

My bare-bones first pioneer LD player set me back $575 12 years ago, my top-of-the-line LD player ran me $1100. However my HD DVD players investment was $480 for a top-of-the-line player, and we know you can get entry-level for about $160.

LDs were $39 list usually, with titles like Criterion's HALLOWEEN or Elites NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD fetching $100-$125 per movie.

On the whole I feel I paid a lot more for LD than I do for HD DVD, and I feel HDM is going to be bigger than LD, due to greater affordability and access (LD never had the retail presence). Actually LD was never part of or connected to game consoles, never really got a push from studios, so I'm thinking it's got a leg up over laser. Also, times have changed, there were no Amazon's or Deep Discounts in the first three-quarters of LD's life making heavily discounted software readily available.

My bare-bones first pioneer LD player set me back $575 12 years ago, my top-of-the-line LD player ran me $1100. However my HD DVD players investment was $480 for a top-of-the-line player, and we know you can get entry-level for about $160.

LDs were $39 list usually, with titles like Criterion's HALLOWEEN or Elites NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD fetching $100-$125 per movie.

On the whole I feel I paid a lot more for LD than I do for HD DVD, and I feel HDM is going to be bigger than LD, due to greater affordability and access (LD never had the retail presence). Actually LD was never part of or connected to game consoles, never really got a push from studios, so I'm thinking it's got a leg up over laser. Also, times have changed, there were no Amazon's or Deep Discounts in the first three-quarters of LD's life making heavily discounted software readily available.

Timothy:

Let's step into my time machine and go to November 2011. HDM has captured 20% of the home video market. There are now 4500 titles to choose from.

Is HDM successful?

Or is HDM a niche?

It is of my opinion that "to foretell the future - look back to the past." I see so many correlations between these two "era's" of Home Video.

VHS became the dominant format after a long format war. LD was introduced to improve the PQ and AQ. It ushered in the large screen display. It introduced features not found on VHS. It divided the market into casual TV watchers and real movie lovers. It birthed real Home Theater. And for the longest time - a single company carried the format - Pioneer. And it introduced the S-Video connection.

Retailers supported VHS - but not LD - you had to go to boutique stores or order online.

But LD was never successful in going mass market.

DVD has been the most successful and fastest mass adoption CE product in history. What VHS did in 20+ years - DVD accomplished in 10. Everything about the birth of DVD surpassed VHS with the exception of no record (came later)

Now we have HDM - once again - an improvement in PQ and AQ - with more features - and the introduction of the HDMI connection. And for HD DVD - one company making hardware - Toshiba.

And of course - the advancement of HT. Before, it took line doublers and line triplers to get a good image on a 120"+ screen - all very expensive hardware when they first came out. With HDM - just a PJ and an HD source with HDM the Apex of PQ/AQ.

Yes there was a format war with LD . . . LD versus CED. Now we are in the middle of a format war - and the format(s) mimic LD in almost every way especially the cost of movies - which for LD . . . never changed - $34.95 for 1 disc movies - $39.99 for 2 disc movies. And importing LD's was very popular.

Can and will HDM "break" the adage listed above?

I think it is a very good comparison.

You also didnt need a better TV to see the difference between LD/VHS.

You very much do for HDM.

Timothy:

Let's step into my time machine and go to November 2011. HDM has captured 20% of the home video market. There are now 4500 titles to choose from.

Is HDM successful?

Or is HDM a niche?

That is a niche IMO, which is where we are headed.

you also have to adjust pricing for inflation. I have an average price on my HDM of less than $15 a title, big box sets excluded.. but still in that range if you calculate per disc.

We are 18 monts in... Lee you were talking about 10 to 20 years. We are in a different market today than even 18 months ago as larger and larger displays are sold at lower and lower prices. Tiger Direct had a 65" 1080P DLP on sale for $1399... and an 5.1 Onkyo home theater in box which dual hdmi at 1080P not just pass through either at $399.. TVs that big really need HDM to look good and I think Tiger Direct had the A2 for about $179. I don't know how many titles came with the A3 but we know the minimum would be 2 in the box and 5 on MIR.

So the upshot is a 65" 1080P display, very decent quality surround sound with HDMI switching and a high definition player delivered to the door for less than $2K... not much more than a high end LD player in constant currency.

Sure this was an exceptional deal... but is is mainstream everday pricing by late next year.

HDM capability will be part of every DVD player sold in 24 months. It won't represent a premium, it will be a minimum necessary feature to be marketable. Any cheap $50 player will have to have it to make it to the retailers shelf.

Sure you can say it is all speculation on my part but the pricing trends are clear and they are accelerating. People argued back and forth only 6 months ago about the mythical $149 high def player... well we know people have purchased players for under $90. I bought an A2 for $100 six months ago, and got an A3 for the same price a couple of weeks ago.

So while you may see some correlation to LD and VHS... I don't see it at all.. HDM is only a minor price premium now for a careful shopper and there was no $1399 65" 1080P HDTV available to justify buying the extremely expensive LD players to use with it.

Actually LD was never part of or connected to game consoles,
Well, not outside Japan, anyway :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pioneer_LaserActive

If you want to foretell the future you need to make sure you have the right past.
I hope that HDM isn't VHS v LD/ I hope it is VHS v DVD, but if it can't do RealD and we know it can't do better than 8 bit color we really need to move on to a better format.

If you want to foretell the future you need to make sure you have the right past.
I hope that HDM isn't VHS v LD/ I hope it is VHS v DVD, but if it can't do RealD and we know it can't do better than 8 bit color we really need to move on to a better format.

We have been able to correct most of the "problems" that we were given when they birthed the HD specs:

1. 3:2 Pulldown - go rid of that one - 24P

2. Interlace - Bye bye - 720P/1080P

3. Color Banding - oops - still here.

But are these major changes to the image? Or are they subtle changes? IMO - subtle. Not like the different Aspect Ratio or the increase in resolution.

LD was for those that wanted:

1. Improved PQ and AQ
2. A larger display and not have the PQ go down
3. OAR
4. Special Features

Well as Plasman says . . "if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck . . it must be a duck."

PS: keep in mind that both VHS and DVD had Porn to drive them to success . . . HDM does not have this.

Let's step into my time machine and go to November 2011. HDM has captured 20% of the home video market. There are now 4500 titles to choose from.

I'd begin by returning that time machine to the used car salesman who sold it to you. ;)

I know you like to quote an 11% of folks watch HDTV according to a survey earlier this year but that doesn't jive with the figures I have been seeing.

Somewhere around 50% of households are expect to have an HDTV by the end of this year. It's true that not everyone has an HD source -- OTA, cable, satellite, hidef disc ... but lots do. I know, for a fact, that at least 20% of Ontario residents who have access to cable or satellite are HD subscribers -- and that includes accounting for the analog base which, obviously, don't have HD from cable. By 2011 that figure is going to closing in on 90% or more.

HD is not going to be a niche and nor is hidef discs. Four years is a long time out to be predicting doom for something which is having its very first Xmas.

Four years is a long time out to be predicting doom for something which is having its very first Xmas.Oops. It's HDM's second Christmas.

I'd begin by returning that time machine to the used car salesman who sold it to you. ;)

Hey it worked as advertised:D


I know you like to quote an 11% of folks watch HDTV according to a survey earlier this year but that doesn't jive with the figures I have been seeing.

Three studies done on HD watchers who own an HDTV:

CEA - 44%
NPD - 20%
Neil - 11%

So if you see something different - please tell me. The 44% was a PR BS study because when you added the HDM players, and HD "OTA" subs - nowheres near that number.

Somewhere around 50% of households are expect to have an HDTV by the end of this year. It's true that not everyone has an HD source -- OTA, cable, satellite, hidef disc ... but lots do. I know, for a fact, that at least 20% of Ontario residents who have access to cable or satellite are HD subscribers -- and that includes accounting for the analog base which, obviously, don't have HD from cable. By 2011 that figure is going to closing in on 90% or more.

The CEA says 36% - for the end of 2007. Last official report was 6/30 - right on target.

The 20% was HD Disc - market penetration - versus DVD.

And you are painting yourself into a corner IMO because the more HD that becomes available on HD "OTA" - the less HDM becomes attractive as a source of HD. .. very limited.

HD is not going to be a niche and nor is hidef discs. Four years is a long time out to be predicting doom for something which is having its very first Xmas.

We are not discussing HD. We are discussing HDM. I am using the Apathy to HD to coorelate to HDM . . . my "proof" so to speak.

One more time . . . .I will throw down the gaunlet . . .

Conditions are the same for DVD versus HDM - almost identical:

1. 12/31/07 = 12/31/98 (based on SI dates for DVD and HDM)
2. Not all studios were releasing on DVD
3. The format war has just begun - DVD versus DIVX
4. Software pricing is "about the same"

ONLY real difference - no outlets for DVD rental (came 7/99)

CHALLANGE:

The last week of 12/98 - DVD sold over 750,000 discs . . . IN ONE WEEK (data comes from statement made at CES 1999 - Nielsen data - Wal-mart Included) - info at The Digital Bits under 1999 CES link.

I definitely think HDM is headed for Laserdisc niche. Maybe it will be a bigger niche, but still niche.

The majority of people I know who have bought FPDs didn't buy them for HD, they bought them for the screen size and form factor and aren't even getting HD sources and they don't care. Even after the difference has been demonstrated to them and they acknowledge the improvement they still won't pay a dime extra for it.

This is the crowd that has their DVD players connected with composite cables and set for a 4:3 TV and stretched to fill the screen.

I'd like nothing better than to be proven wrong. But I'm a realist, and HDM would have had a very hard time becoming anything other than a niche market even WITHOUT the stupid format war. Now its fate is sealed.

Can and will HDM "break" the adage listed above?

I hope HDM will thrive but my personal anecdotal experience says no.

My sister and brother in law have a Bravia HDTV and Hi-Def cable, so they know what HDTV is. They are visiting over the holiday. I played "Transformers" for them on HD DVD to my 50 inch Elite 1080p plasma. The video and audio was spectacular and they very much enjoyed it. The next evening we played Spiderman 3, the regular DVD-ROM on the same Toshiba HD DVD player upscaled to the Elite. It was very enjoyable for all of us, to say it was close would just be a matter of your personal subjective perspective on it. The HD DVD rendition of "Transformers" was head and shoulders above, sis could see that too but it was "good enough," to the degree she doesn't care. At the level of DVD-ROM or HD DVD, either was good enough to them that the content is what mattered, not the presentation. I spent $29.95 for Transformers HD DVD, she spent less than half for Spiderman. At the big box retailer on black Friday, there were plethoras of stocked shelves of good DVD-ROM titles for as little as $2.99, many recent titles for $5.00, row after row. But HD DVD and Blu-Ray occupied only the most tiny endcap, most around $29.95.

I don't think 2007 is going to be a break out year for HDM. Toshiba HD DVD players are selling well but a lot of what's getting stuffed into the tray will be conventional DVD-ROMs. My $0.02

Tom Roper
I don't think 2007 is going to be a break out year for HDM. Toshiba HD DVD players are selling well but a lot of what's getting stuffed into the tray will be conventional DVD-ROMs. My $0.02

BINGO!

But there is an alternative that will drive the price of HDM movies down . . . the greed of the studios.

Tom - let's just add a little bit more to your speculation . . .

They have an HDTV - they purchased an HD player - they get some free movies . . . and they belong to Netflix or BBI. So they may - after seeing the high price of software, decide to look at HDM as a rent only format.

HEY . . . when BBI was the main renter of VHS . . how many VHS titles did YOU own when they were priced at $74.99? Me - ONE TITLE - The Junkman.

Well, they will get to see ALL the benefits of HDM . . . ALL . . with the exception of the large cash outlay that it takes to own HD movies.

So when the studios see tons of HD DVD players being sold and tons of PS3's being sold . . . but sales still linger along. . . .

Guess What? First line item they will look at will be their sales to BBI and NF - to see how much the quantities have increased.

They complain about DVD sales BECAUSE sales are flat . . . but Rentals are skyrocketing! And studios do NOT look and say "well revenue is revenue" or has everyone forgotten that article about DVD not helping the studios turn a profit?

1. LDs were bulky. To play both VHS and LD required 2, different machines
2. HDM are the same, physical size as DVD and DVDs can play in HDM machines. So you can justify a new player by moving the old one to the bedroom.

So we've covered that issue. The biggest issue in the near term, IMO is that of price. If the prices of HDMedia do not become reasonable in 2008, then niche it is. A lot of those new displays this Christmas are going to break some banks. There will be little left over for HDM unless they are more akin to DVD prices. They have to get below 20 bucks... again IMO.

Price was always the big topic for the HD DVD guys when it came to hardware, but the price of media carries more of a sting.

JMHO :)

1. LDs were bulky. To play both VHS and LD required 2, different machines

You would need 2 machines anyway. One to play movies and one for time shifting. Just like today - no HDM SAL recorders here in the USA

2. HDM are the same, physical size as DVD and DVDs can play in HDM machines. So you can justify a new player by moving the old one to the bedroom.

Yep - HDM looks just like a DVD. Could be it's greatest down fall . . . cause other than the color - they look JUST LIKE A DVD!

So we've covered that issue. The biggest issue in the near term, IMO is that of price. If the prices of HDMedia do not become reasonable in 2008, then niche it is. A lot of those new displays this Christmas are going to break some banks. There will be little left over for HDM unless they are more akin to DVD prices. They have to get below 20 bucks... again IMO.

Hmmmm . . . you ever own a rewinder (or 2 or 4 or more?)

Price was always the big topic for the HD DVD guys when it came to hardware, but the price of media carries more of a sting.

JMHO :)

Are you getting enough sleep? - with your brand new, beautiful daughter:p

I ask because if the key to success to HDM is $99 players and $18.99 movies . . . I do not believe that will be enough:(

...Actually LD was never part of or connected to game consoles

... and this was one of it greatest assets. IMO, this entire war has the bright idea of marrying the two as the number one cause...

I definitely think HDM is headed for Laserdisc niche....

One can only hope...

...It divided the market into casual TV watchers and real movie lovers.

'nuff said.

The only way I can see HDM getting out of the niche into mass adoption is if studios start issuing one single SKU that includes HD and SD. Then as time goes by manufacturers gradually stop providing upscaling players that are DVD only and only offer HD players that are backwards compatible with DVD.

The only way I can see HDM getting out of the niche into mass adoption is if studios start issuing one single SKU that includes HD and SD. Then as time goes by manufacturers gradually stop providing upscaling players that are DVD only and only offer HD players that are backwards compatible with DVD.

What happens when you follow a plan - and you make money - VHS. Then you do something a little different - offer the consumer better PQ and AQ and SF's - LD. But the "master plan" is VHS.

Then you invent DVD - same plan only initially it is priced for sale not rental as VHS was. Plan is working . . plan is now the best plan ever! So you go out and invent HDM.

Well the plan worked 2X before . . 3X is "golden!"

And the plan just fell on it's face . . . and your core business - movie making is not turning a profit . . . and the "big savoir" . . . DVD isn't helping either. You don't know which way to turn because everything is crumbling around you. Too many fires to put out.

HDM is a risk - plagued by consumer apathy to better PQ and AQ. DVD is no longer the "big winner" so IMO - when this happens in business . . . you slam on the brakes - on everything . . . and do a "regroup" and stop the loss of blood . . . even if it mean amputating - gangrene will kill you.

What happens when you follow a plan - and you make money - VHS. Then you do something a little different - offer the consumer better PQ and AQ and SF's - LD. But the "master plan" is VHS.

Then you invent DVD - same plan only initially it is priced for sale not rental as VHS was. Plan is working . . plan is now the best plan ever! So you go out and invent HDM.

Well the plan worked 2X before . . 3X is "golden!"

And the plan just fell on it's face . . . and your core business - movie making is not turning a profit . . . and the "big savoir" . . . DVD isn't helping either. You don't know which way to turn because everything is crumbling around you. Too many fires to put out.

HDM is a risk - plagued by consumer apathy to better PQ and AQ. DVD is no longer the "big winner" so IMO - when this happens in business . . . you slam on the brakes - on everything . . . and do a "regroup" and stop the loss of blood . . . even if it mean amputating - gangrene will kill you.

Which is why, like NTSC is going to ATSC by forced decision, the only way out is to go from SD to HD players by forced decision : stop making upscaling players and only offer HD players that can play both, and stop making DVDs and only issue HD discs or to smooth the transition, a SD/HD combo unique SKU.

DVDs are cheaper than VHS ever was during its popularity. You constantly see sales for $3, $4, $5 DVDs. Then the better titles, after the first month of release or so, drop to $15 than $20. Say, all things involved it takes $2 per DVD to make them. (including the paying the scanners to scan the film or plug in the HD data and convert, create menus, etc. Say it's double that for an HD DVD. Well, if you're selling discs at $5-10 mostly and HD DVD is selling for $20-25 mostly, there's more margin per disc sold.

So, it's in the studios best monetary interest to nurture this nascent product and sell movies to make that higher margin until prices drop a lot again and we get "The Next Big Thing™".

Which is why, like NTSC is going to ATSC by forced decision, the only way out is to go from SD to HD players by forced decision : stop making upscaling players and only offer HD players that can play both, and stop making DVDs and only issue HD discs or to smooth the transition, a SD/HD combo unique SKU.

But NTSC to ATSC is a Government Mandate. And we don't want to open THAT can of worms;)

They couldn't agree on a single HD format - these CEM's you speak of. NOW they will?

And your plan just sunk BD - the leader of the HDM "race." Because they can't be compatible with DVD.

PLEASE . . . ANY reader of this next line in my post. It is NOT to incite ANYONE . . .

HD DVD could have made the market change over from DVD to HD DVD in an orderly fashion. All the tools are there. Now that opportunity is gone.

The real driving force behind HDTV sales is the form-factor, not the picture-quality. Flat-panel HDTVs are the first big-screen televisions to be both affordable and thin, and would sell on those merits alone even if there was no "high definition"!

Conversely, high definition would have failed without flat-panel televisions. Japan is the best example because they had HD broadcasts and CRT HDTVs a decade ago, but it failed. Only when affordable LCD and Plasma screens hit the market did the Japanese take interest in high definition.

If HDM succeeds, it will be as a by-product of the success of LCD and Plasma. The problem for HDM is, most people don't need high definition discs to enjoy the largeness and flatness of their new televisions.

The real driving force behind HDTV sales is the form-factor, not the picture-quality. Flat-panel HDTVs are the first big-screen televisions to be both affordable and thin, and would sell on those merits alone even if there was no "high definition"!

Conversely, high definition would have failed without flat-panel televisions. Japan is the best example because they had HD broadcasts and CRT HDTVs a decade ago, but it failed. Only when affordable LCD and Plasma screens hit the market did the Japanese take interest in high definition.

If HDM succeeds, it will be as a by-product of the success of LCD and Plasma. The problem for HDM is, most people don't need high definition discs to enjoy the largeness and flatness of their new televisions.

Agreed - good post.

Unfortunately the HD train is pulling more than one boxcar.

We already know the multitude of HD programming that is available to the public (See who is really the 800lb Gorilla thread).

The more HDTV's that populate households - the more HD "OTA" responds. THEY - the CBL and SAT companies are the BIG winners in the transition to HDTV (first stop - all Digital).

I can honestly say that MOJO is NOT a HD channel I watch. But Discovery HD Theater is one I watch alot. Now many of my favorite SD channesl are coming to HD - Discovery, History, Sci-Fi, The Science Channel . . . just to name a few. Even SPEED is going HD next year. As they add channels - my available selection broadens. And I don't pay any extra for these additional channels.

NOTE: I drool for the day the Barrett-Jackson is broadcast in HD:D

So I am getting more HD - but not paying more for it (THANK GOD!)

More HD for me and the millions who own HDTV's. Also less time to watch HD on Disc movies.

Just saw a post that was so true . . . 24P . . "a niche within a niche."

Is that what HDM is going to be?

I keep reading posts of members experiences about shopping this BF Weekend . . . and I read the same thing . . . plenty of players . . . WHERE are all the movies?

So if the studios don't care that their movies aren't being bought . . and the CER's don't care enough to fully stock their shelves . . .

Anyone here believes, this is good for HDM? This is going to convince the consumer to make the plunge into HD Disc? Bad enough we are in a format war . . .

Or is it just like LD?

I want HDM to succeed, however I just have to face the fact that whoever wins out in the end (be it BD or HD dvd) it's still going to be a niche. There's a part of me that's okay with that. I mean why try to ram all the benifits of HDM down the average consumer's throats when SD DVDs look just as good in their eyes. The average price of a new HDTV has finally come to down so that most people will consider this as their next television purchase. When I got my first HDTV back in 2000, the averaqe price was very high (I can't beleive how much I paid for my Pioneer set) which made these sets a very niche home theater product. I was simply blown away at how incredible my DVDs looked on this set. Actual HDTV programming was very scarce in my neck of the woods, so I bought this set with the sole purpose of watching DVDs. Now the average consumers is where most of us were years ago. When I first saw a demo of HD-DVD, I was sold. People who are new to the world of HDTVs (like many people where I work) simply do not have any other refrence to how good there sets can look. To them this is the pinnacle of home theater.

If it were a niche (which I really don't want it be) the studios could just concentrate on producing excelent transfers, and just drop all these stupid web crap and interactive games which only take up disc space.

Laserdiscs were way to expensive and cumbersom to ever reach mass-acceptance. I bought my first Pioneer LD player in 1994. It was $500, and had no auto-flipping feature. When a disc's side ended, you had to manually eject the disc and flip it yourself. The average price here in Canada was about $45 for a non-special edition disc, and $90 - $130 for special editions and Criterion Collection discs. Fox had the highest prices for non-special edition discs. I remember paying $65 for both Independance Day and Die Hard: With A Vengance. By then I had a new Pioneer LD player that had AC-3 output, and I was hooked on that glorious 5.1 sound. Ahhh the days...

Things have changed dramatically from the time LD vs VHS was an issue. Too much, imo for it to be a valid analogy.

When VHS/beta debuted, it was the first practical format to allow consumers to watch movies in their homes (that weren't airing on cable, of course). VHS was wildly successful, but mostly as a rental formate. Movies were $80 and up and the general consumer wasn't buying titles at that price. The most they did was buy previously viewed titles while enthusiasts bought films.

LD was a step up, but it wasn't practical as a rental format as VHS was king. It also had high costs and only enthusiasts were willing to spend that much to buy movies.

DVD came along and changed the whole ballgame. It featured much lower prices than most consumers had seen before and allowed even casual movie watchers to buy films pretty cheaply. DVD forced widespread price cuts for VHS as the format tried to remain viable, but it was crushed due not only to inferior picture quality, but due to DVDs having the "cool" factor and their being more durable.

DVD is the single most successful home entertainment product in history. Nothing will ever be as successful. HDM might eventually overtake it (although I highly doubt it) but it will never be as widely embraced and see the sales numbers that DVD did in it's heyday.

CRFTony - you said:

It also had high costs and only enthusiasts were willing to spend that much to buy movies.

Hmmmmmm . . . ;)

DVD forced widespread price cuts for VHS as the format tried to remain viable, but it was crushed due not only to inferior picture quality, but due to DVDs having the "cool" factor and their being more durable.

So where is the "cool" factor with HDM?

but it will never be as widely embraced and see the sales numbers that DVD did in it's heyday

Amazing isn't it . . .

30 years - VHS

20 years - LD

10 years - DVD - and it's "heyday" is over (I agree)

X years - HDM - and HDM is almost 20 months old.

Where's that time machine? Popcorn Ready was right! - it didn't work! Because at this rate - HDM will be replaced IN 2011 - by the "next big thing."

It is of my opinion that "to foretell the future - look back to the past." I see so many correlations between these two "era's" of Home Video.

VHS became the dominant format after a long format war. LD was introduced to improve the PQ and AQ. It ushered in the large screen display. It introduced features not found on VHS. It divided the market into casual TV watchers and real movie lovers. It birthed real Home Theater. And for the longest time - a single company carried the format - Pioneer. And it introduced the S-Video connection.

Actually, S-Video was introduced with SVHS, and for the longest time was often referred to as a "SVHS" connection. LD, since it was stored as a composite signal on the disc, didn't really benefit much from S-Video unless your player had a much better comb filter than your TV.

LD also wasn't introduced to improve the picture quailty, necessarily, but merely as another option for prerecorded video - and it was introduced in 1978, long before VHS or prerecorded video in general became affordable and commonplace. CED wasn't introduced until 1981. LD, CED, VHS and Beta were all essentially contemporary and competitive technologies to one another, not successors.

Everything will be HD eventually. You can count on it. There will be no niche market for HD movies. The HD display market is already self-sustaining. The HD broadcast market is well on its way to sustainability. The only question remaining is whether movies will be in HD DVD or BD or downloads.

I still think the changover looks more like the switch from BW TV to color than anything else. Color TV sales did not reach 50 percent of TV sales until ten years after the networks started broadcasting in color. HDM will make steady progress over the years, and it is inevitable that it will dominate; but people just need time to make the switch. The arguments that SD DVD is just fine for now is the same one that people made about black-and-white TV even though everyone saw the benefits of color. People will upgrade but on their own terms.

Doug

Actually, S-Video was introduced with SVHS, and for the longest time was often referred to as a "SVHS" connection. LD, since it was stored as a composite signal on the disc, didn't really benefit much from S-Video unless your player had a much better comb filter than your TV.

yes - thank you for pointing that out - yet LD jumped on S-video right away and SVHS was even a smaller market than LD. More of a camcorder format.

LD also wasn't introduced to improve the picture quailty, necessarily, but merely as another option for prerecorded video - and it was introduced in 1978, long before VHS or prerecorded video in general became affordable and commonplace. CED wasn't introduced until 1981. LD, CED, VHS and Beta were all essentially contemporary and competitive technologies to one another, not successors.

VHS came out in 1976 according to Wiki who also names the first movie - a japanese title as VHS was released first in Japan - just like LD I believe.

And the VCR was really a time shifting device long before it was a movie player. LD was strictly a movie player for the consumer - that had better PQ and AQ than VHS.

As CED died with Beta along with it - we had a mass market format - VHS and a niche format - LD.

Today we have a mass market format - DVD and a niche format(s) - HDM

Please understand -I am painting with a broad stroke paint brush - not a fine detail brush.;)

I see your point, but there are a couple other considerations - utilizing the physical size of the media along with backwards compatibility w/ DVD makes HDM players much more attractive. DVD enjoyed a similar advantage with its backwards compatibility with CD.

With VHS/LD you had to have two boxes to play both formats, and VHS was necessary to record, play back home videos, etc. Very few people owned a LD player without also owning a VHS player. To sell LD you had to convince people that they needed two players.

I guess the real question here, Lee, is whether HD media will replace SD media or make only a dent (i.e., niche)? It sounds like you believe the world will never completely embrace HD movies. If that is your view, I beg to differ. I see HDTV sales and HDTV broadcasts increasing on continuous basis. My only contrary opinion is that it will take much longer than most people think, so for appearance sake it might look like a niche for a few more years, but HD media will eventually win. Of that, I have no doubt.

Doug

Are you getting enough sleep? - with your brand new, beautiful daughter:p

I ask because if the key to success to HDM is $99 players and $18.99 movies . . . I do not believe that will be enough:(
No and I hope you're wrong.

:)

I have no problem with HDM being a niche like LD was. Well, as long as it's not that expensive.

I think two major factors haven't been discussed in detail yet. 1) Gaming. Most young males, and many females, spend a greater majority of time gaming. These are high def experiences on their Xbox 360s or PS3s. They would much rather spend money gaming than on movies. 2) TV. TV offers high def programming that is quite attractive and plentiful. Hell, We're already paying for the cable, we might as well enjoy it. There are only so many hours in a day. Prioritize. HDV loses out unless they can become competive by dropping prices greatly on hardware and software.

I have no problem with HDM being a niche like LD was. Well, as long as it's not that expensive.
I think THAT is the issue.

If HDM is truly headed toward doom and gloom, I believe there could be a last ditch, final solution that would save it and keep studios profitable.

Each format or whatever format is left could sell two versions; one with SD only (because there are a lot of SD DVD players out there that are going to last a looooong time) and one with both an SD and an HD disc in the same box "for a few dollars more."

Since a year or two before launch I felt that a combo of some sort was the answer. Ideally it would have been a single sided disc with both versions on it and automatically played back according to the ability of the machine, but some kind of combo, anyway (for God's sake, not a flipper!) :) The studios may not have thought it the most profitable answer short term, but I believe it was the answer for the SD/HD transition.

We HD folk can always get HD cable a-la HBO, but of course we like to own and I'm guessing there is profit to be had when we own.

Hopefully the studios will get it before "it's" too late.

JMHO

Drop the price on the software and you won't be having this problem. It IS the largest barrier to entry, period. Anyone who is interested in HDM is going to spend a few hundred on a SAL. I spoke to quite a few people during this Thanksgiving holiday, and every one complained about the price of the software.

That's your problem, plain and simple. 35 bucks a movie is rediculous.

When the studios figure out that they can get a higher margin for HD within REASON, then we will start seeing some tangible sales.

CRFTony - you said:



Hmmmmmm . . . ;)



So where is the "cool" factor with HDM?



Amazing isn't it . . .

30 years - VHS

20 years - LD

10 years - DVD - and it's "heyday" is over (I agree)

X years - HDM - and HDM is almost 20 months old.

Where's that time machine? Popcorn Ready was right! - it didn't work! Because at this rate - HDM will be replaced IN 2011 - by the "next big thing."

Nothing amazing about it really. As a technology develops, any electronic's lifespan becomes invariably shorter. HDM may neither have the force, or the TIME to be the next big thing. In 3-4 years, we may be staring down the barrel of something bigger and better. HDM doesn't even have the chance to put in the years DVD has, let alone VHS. Personally, I'm waiting for the P2Btm.(Port to Brain) connection.:D

I see your point, but there are a couple other considerations - utilizing the physical size of the media along with backwards compatibility w/ DVD makes HDM players much more attractive. DVD enjoyed a similar advantage with its backwards compatibility with CD.

With VHS/LD you had to have two boxes to play both formats, and VHS was necessary to record, play back home videos, etc. Very few people owned a LD player without also owning a VHS player. To sell LD you had to convince people that they needed two players.

Fixed it!

To sell HDM you had to convince people that they needed two players
:D

I guess the real question here, Lee, is whether HD media will replace SD media or make only a dent (i.e., niche)? It sounds like you believe the world will never completely embrace HD movies. If that is your view, I beg to differ. I see HDTV sales and HDTV broadcasts increasing on continuous basis. My only contrary opinion is that it will take much longer than most people think, so for appearance sake it might look like a niche for a few more years, but HD media will eventually win. Of that, I have no doubt.

Doug

This issue is HD Movies . . . on disc. We already know that HD "OTA" is picking up speed. Comcast announced they added 900,000 DVR's in Q3 (they give us the DVR count to "inflate" the HD count becuase the CBL and SAT companies are "cagey" about releasing any specific data on HD subscribers.)

No - I do not believe the world will embrace HD movies on disc. Not unless the special features (specifically the IF) really takes off. There just isn't enough of a difference with HDM over DVD.

TIME - THAT is the BIG issue. When you compare the lifespan of the formats - you definitely see the timeframe growing shorter. And this may be the downfall of HDM - not enough time to "get the job done."

Drop the price on the software and you won't be having this problem. It IS the largest barrier to entry, period. Anyone who is interested in HDM is going to spend a few hundred on a SAL. I spoke to quite a few people during this Thanksgiving holiday, and every one complained about the price of the software.

That's your problem, plain and simple. 35 bucks a movie is rediculous.

When the studios figure out that they can get a higher margin for HD within REASON, then we will start seeing some tangible sales.

The price of movies is definitely a stumbling block. But according to all here - HDM is a better product. So the studios expect the consumer to pay more for a better product.

It can't be priced the same as DVD because that does nothing for the studios. They want a higher profit margin and they are entitled to it. an HD movie costs way more to produce (not manufacturer) than a DVD. ESPECIALLY with the IME and IF features and the fancy menu's.

So what is the threshhold for a price difference? $5.00? $7.00 . . no more than $10?

Yet we have seen comparisons of apples to apples - a 2 disc SE of a DVD that is only $3.00 less than it's HD counterpart.

No and I hope you're wrong.

:)

That will pass fairly soon - the no sleep issue. You have many "issues" to look forward to:D

"After we sat around and tossed our problems into a hat - once I saw what got tossed in . . . I prayed to get my own back!"

So please explain why the BOGO sales haven't caused BD to skyrocket in sales on the Nielsens? I mean we are now talking about $15 and $17 and $20 priced movies - the same for DVD right?

Where did the growth of sales of DVD come from? Why has this growth stopped in 2005? According to Wiki - it took 6 years for DVD to surpass sales of VHS (2003).

What is happening in the marketplace that has caused THE most successful CE product in history to have such a short life span - when we look at growth.

Are consumers turning to other delivery systems for movies?

Hey it worked as advertised:D


And you are painting yourself into a corner IMO because the more HD that becomes available on HD "OTA" - the less HDM becomes attractive as a source of HD. .. very limited.

Ignoring your "apathy towards HD" sillyness, the above argument holds no water. You believe that the more people become accustomed to HD, the more likely they are to "settle" for purchased SD content?

Since when do people accept inferior PQ for purchased media as opposed to OTA? Bought movies have always looked better than their free TV counterparts. If I'm paying north of $20, I exect what I'm buying to look better than what I watched last night on NBC, not worse.

Ignoring your "apathy towards HD" sillyness, the above argument holds no water. You believe that the more people become accustomed to HD, the more likely they are to "settle" for purchased SD content?

So you don't believe any of the four recent studies done by four different companies? Do you believe in Nielsen? Here is their results:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/nielsenhd103107.htm

Here is another one:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/study110707.htm

Since when do people accept inferior PQ for purchased media as opposed to OTA? Bought movies have always looked better than their free TV counterparts. If I'm paying north of $20, I exect what I'm buying to look better than what I watched last night on NBC, not worse.

Are you confusing OTA with what I typed . . . "OTA" which is to include CBL/SAT/OTA when referring to HD available to the consumer? (Only FIOS is not "OTA" - it is a hard wired system)

You seem to feel that people really want better PQ. Is this your own opinion or are you basing it on articles, studies, etc?

Ignoring your "apathy towards HD" sillyness, the above argument holds no water. You believe that the more people become accustomed to HD, the more likely they are to "settle" for purchased SD content?

Since when do people accept inferior PQ for purchased media as opposed to OTA? Bought movies have always looked better than their free TV counterparts. If I'm paying north of $20, I exect what I'm buying to look better than what I watched last night on NBC, not worse.

It seems a lot of people are getting defensive over the possibility that HDM may not make it mainstream. It seems pretty much set in stone to them that it will succeed. This is not the case, nor is it even close. We still have a way to go on this, but as I see it now, it may never reach critical mass. There is too much content available through other means. Other means which continue to grow......and are a lot more popular.

I think HDM will take a long time to reach DVD scale adoption. If ever. But I think it's safe to assume it will reach a level of adoption comparable to a leading game console.

We live in an ever growing "tech obsessed" culture. Every year people are exponentially becoming both more dependent on technology and knowledgeable about technology. HDM will spread like a cancer slowly but surely. I think the average consumer won't end up wanting HDM for better PQ, but because they're "supposed" to have it with an HDTV. Apathy is a huge issue but I don't think it will be strong enough to stop the 'HD Trend'. With the internet, consumers are all plugged into each other instantly. Word spreads around the world in a blink of an eye.

With LD you would have to look in boutique stores to buy discs. Now not only do we have all major retailers selling them in some capacity, we have amazon, ebay ect. and not to mention forums full of enthusiasts eager to spread their hobby.

I agree that price isn't the factor keeping the masses from HDM, it's apathy. But as adoption slowly spreads that apathy will be replaced by self guilt, that if they now buy a SD DVD player, they will be getting "swindled".

I think HDM will take a long time to reach DVD scale adoption. If ever. But I think it's safe to assume it will reach a level of adoption comparable to a leading game console.

We live in an ever growing "tech obsessed" culture. Every year people are exponentially becoming both more dependent on technology and knowledgeable about technology. HDM will spread like a cancer slowly but surely. I think the average consumer won't end up wanting HDM for better PQ, but because they're "supposed" to have it with an HDTV. Apathy is a huge issue but I don't think it will be strong enough to stop the 'HD Trend'. With the internet, consumers are all plugged into each other instantly. Word spreads around the world in a blink of an eye.

With LD you would have to look in boutique stores to buy discs. Now not only do we have all major retailers selling them in some capacity, we have amazon, ebay ect. and not to mention forums full of enthusiasts eager to spread their hobby.

I agree that price isn't the factor keeping the masses from HDM, it's apathy. But as adoption slowly spreads that apathy will be replaced by self guilt, that if they now buy a SD DVD player, they will be getting "swindled".

But time is the one thing HDM doesn't have. As a matter of fact - it is running out of time. This is part speculation and part fact based on what has already happened.

If, as you say - we are a technology driven society (and I agree 100% with you) then we are at the mercy of the time constraints of technology. We can not really look back to the past becuase time has speeded up - due to the advancements of technology.

We have to take into account this accelerated advancement issue and apply it to HDM to see how it fits.

This thread was started by me to look back and compare two time frames in home video format history. Both have a format for the masses and for the enthausists.

And though we are not allowed to discuss the format war here at AVS - we MUST acknowledge that it exists. So here is my list of negatives for HDM and why I feel it will be a niche:

1. Evolutionary
2. Format War
3. Too similiar to DVD in appearance
4. Too expensive
5. Competition for other HD sources
6. The UP DVD player fiascio
7. Apathy from the consumer

And the clock is ticking.

1. Evolutionary
2. Format War
3. Too similiar to DVD in appearance
4. Too expensive
5. Competition for other HD sources
6. The UP DVD player fiascio
7. Apathy from the consumer

And the clock is ticking.

Jeepers Lee, you make it sound like the doomsday clock:D

Jeepers Lee, you make it sound like the doomsday clock:D

IT IS! :(

And a crying shame that it is. Because The day MUSE LD came out - I saw the future of home video . . . HD movies for the masses. I knew it was cumbersome . . . but it worked. VERY WELL. All they had to do was get the "package" down in size.

The day I saw DVD at the 1996 CES show I was not excited about DVD per say. I was excited because here it was . . . the delivery system for HD movies. Now it was only a question of time. But it took 10 years from that day to make it into the marketplace.

I would like to make a speculation statement based on following the home video market since 1980 and the TV market since 1966. So take it for what it is worth . . .

The Hollywood Studios NEVER wanted to give HD movies to the consumer. They are terrified of it. And they have done everything in their power to first stop it . . . then stymie it's growth.

But time is the one thing HDM doesn't have. As a matter of fact - it is running out of time. This is part speculation and part fact based on what has already happened.

If, as you say - we are a technology driven society (and I agree 100% with you) then we are at the mercy of the time constraints of technology. We can not really look back to the past becuase time has speeded up - due to the advancements of technology.

We have to take into account this accelerated advancement issue and apply it to HDM to see how it fits.

This thread was started by me to look back and compare two time frames in home video format history. Both have a format for the masses and for the enthausists.

And though we are not allowed to discuss the format war here at AVS - we MUST acknowledge that it exists. So here is my list of negatives for HDM and why I feel it will be a niche:

1. Evolutionary
2. Format War
3. Too similiar to DVD in appearance
4. Too expensive
5. Competition for other HD sources
6. The UP DVD player fiascio
7. Apathy from the consumer

And the clock is ticking.

You could've said a lot of the same about HDTV's in general
1. evolutionary
2. Too similar to SDTV's in appearence
3: too exspensive
4: EDTV/ Non-HD digital tv fiasco
5: Apathy from the consumer


I recall it seeming like it took FOREVER for Best Buy to finally get in HD displays. I would go in there at least once a month for a while asking when they would get some in for in store display. I also remember their first HDTV under $1000. It was a Samsung 27"CRT. and I bought one. and it was a long, long time before I got to watch anything HD on it. I can't recall even a time frame, I think 2002? It still amazes me HD displays sold as well as they did before there were any real HD sources to put on the darn thing.

Jump forward to today and SD displays are hidden in the corner of Best Buy like bastard step child they're ashamed of. You should be a little more patient. Give HDM at least as much time as HDTV to get on it's feet. Considering it's still well under 2 years old, I think it's not doing too bad. Of course if we don't see a significant jump in adoption by Febuary it could spell trouble. The players seem to be selling well this holiday season, let's see if people buy movies for them.

Times are just a little too different, variables are just little too broad for me to feel comfortable with looking at past formats for the future of HDM. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to! I love analogies.

The Hollywood Studios NEVER wanted to give HD movies to the consumer. They are terrified of it. And they have done everything in their power to first stop it . . . then stymie it's growth.


That is a little to conspiracy theory for me. There is too much money to be made with HDM or any other way to get high definition to your living room. We want it, people want it, and they will give it to us, no matter what form it takes.

You could've said a lot of the same about HDTV's in general
1. evolutionary
2. Too similar to SDTV's in appearence
3: too exspensive
4: EDTV/ Non-HD digital tv fiasco
5: Apathy from the consumer

HDM and HDTV are two totally different animals becuse of two very important reasons which favor HDTV:

1. Government Mandate to get rid of Analog OTA
2. HDTV is the ONLY TV you can buy now for all intents and purposes. (32" and above)

Evolutionary? yes and no

Similiar to NTSC TV? - Not at all - AR is different and there are no NTSC TV's that can be hung on a wall like a picture.

Too expensive - yep and not getting cheaper - the HDTV CEM's have had enough of the price drops. Their plan has changed . . . HOLD THE PRICE and offer a larger display. Good for the consumer - good for the CEM

Apathy? - Yes to HD - No to HDTV. They LOVE IT! The WAF is no longer an issue - EVERYONE wants a George Jetson Hang On The Wall TV.


I recall it seeming like it took FOREVER for Best Buy to finally get in HD displays. I would go in there at least once a month for a while asking when they would get some in for in store display. I also remember their first HDTV under $1000. It was a Samsung 27"CRT. and I bought one. and it was a long, long time before I got to watch anything HD on it. I can't recall even a time frame, I think 2002? It still amazes me HD displays sold as well as they did before there were any real HD sources to put on the darn thing.

Jump forward to today and SD displays are hidden in the corner of Best Buy like bastard step child they're ashamed of. You should be a little more patient. Give HDM at least as much time as HDTV to get on it's feet. Considering it's still well under 2 years old, I think it's not doing too bad. Of course if we don't see a significant jump in adoption by Febuary it could spell trouble. The players seem to be selling well this holiday season, let's see if people buy movies for them.

HDTV as a source came out in I believe 1998 (or 1999 - Jay Leno show - can't remember the year - memory is failing:D) HDTV sales exploded in 2006. Lets take the 1999 to 2006 as the "time it had to get going" - the benefit of the doubt. That is 7 years. Now we are talking about 2013. Do you honestly believe HDM has until 2013 to be successful? I don't.

Times are just a little too different, variables are just little too broad for me to feel comfortable with looking at past formats for the future of HDM. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to! I love analogies.

You are right - they are different - the clock is moving faster than ever. The "principals" are there to compare - but when we factor in this time issue - it does not bode well for HDM.

NOTE OFF TOPIC: Everyone seen this announcement?

Verizon FiOS now boasts of 50 Mbps download speed

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/11918.cfm

NOTE OFF TOPIC: Everyone see this announcement?

Verizon FiOS now boasts of 50 Mbps download speed



Not off topic, that could be applied to downloading movies putting more hurt on HDM. The problem is, although it's bound to come down in the future, did you see the price? Too rich for my blood for internet access.

Not off topic, that could be applied to downloading movies putting more hurt on HDM. The problem is, although it's bound to come down in the future, did you see the price? Too rich for my blood for internet access.

Yes the price is ridiculous if you ask me. So was $8000 for a Pioneer 50" PDP HDTV and look what happen to that;)

Yes the price is ridiculous if you ask me. So was $8000 for a Pioneer 50" PDP HDTV and look what happen to that;)

That was not ridiculous. Priorities man, priorities;)

That is a little to conspiracy theory for me. There is too much money to be made with HDM or any other way to get high definition to your living room. We want it, people want it, and they will give it to us, no matter what form it takes.

Hollywood is a strange animal. At one time the only way to see a movie was at a theater. 100% of a movie's revenue came from the box office. Now we are down to 25%.

Hollywood said TV would never entice the masses. Who wants to look at entertainment on a 15" display? Well they were totally wrong on that issue. So what did they do? The improved film presentation with "scope" and 70mm and multichannel sound. It worked - but not for very long.

Everyone always like to say; "adjusted for inflation" when talking about the past. And when we do this to movie box office take - Gone With The Wind shoots to #1. That just proves my point.

TV hurt Hollywood. Look at what happened with the Betamax lawsuit. Hollywood tried everything in it's power to stop this product. Then when they lost the suit - it was not a Hollywood studio that first offered pre-recorded movies to the consumer. It was one man (Andy Blaylock - I think was his name) who saw an opportunity and ran with it. He licensed 50 films from Fox I believe to make tapes to sell to the public. They were expensive and the man who founded BBI also saw an opportunity - and ran with it.

HDTV is once again a threat to Hollywood (theres that adage again;)) because the better home video gets - the more the consumer will just stay home as opposed to going to the movies. Check the yearly BO take for the last 5 years. See anything? NO GROWTH - and they continue to raise the price of a ticket.

Hollywood lives in fear of pirarcy - and HD represents a "perfect" copy to use as a master. I am seeing literally 2 or 3 articles a day on After Dawn on this issue. So how many security systems do we have now?

But it has been 8/9 years since HDTV has arrived. My statement is based mainly before it's birth - and the fact that the studios allowed a format war to happen in the first place. They KNEW this was not going to help the acceptance of HDM. And here we are.

And now once again we have the improvenemt to the theater in the form of D-Cinema

OBTW - Universal was the studio that was choosen to fight Sony on the Betamax lawsuit.

Hmmmmmmmmmm;)

If studios really wanted HDM to succeed, they would stop releasing SD only discs. The HD DVD camp should only release all movies as combos and for a fairly cheap price, say $19.99 for new releases and $14.99 for catalog titles.

That won't happen though. The only reason studios are releasing HDM is because they think they can get back to the days of higher media prices. They loved DVD when new releases were $29.99. They didn't love it nearly as much when those new releases were debuting at $14.99 and they liked it even less when catalog titles started selling in retail chains and supermarkets for >$5.

The studios didn't embrace HDM because it looks great and offers more choices for special features, etc. They don't care about any of that. They started pushing HDM because they could make more money per disc. So, when we all say the key to widespread acceptance of HDM is low prices, that's true. But then studios lose their incentive to push the format.

HDTV is once again a threat to Hollywood (theres that adage again) because the better home video gets - the more the consume will just stay home as opposed to going to the movies. Check the yearly BO take for the last 5 years. See anything? NO GROWTH - and they continue to raise the price of a ticket.

There are lots of theories on the declining BO, but the biggest threat to Hollywood is the internet. The biggest ticket buyers are young males, I think 13-21 year olds. As high speed internet becomes more widespread and they begin using that as a primary source of entertainment, they spend less time at the cinema. More time on MySpace and YouTube = less dollars spent on movies. That's a far bigger cause to the declining BO effect than HDTVs, imo.

So you don't believe any of the four recent studies done by four different companies? Do you believe in Nielsen? Here is their results:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/nielsenhd103107.htm

Here is another one:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/study110707.htm



Are you confusing OTA with what I typed . . . "OTA" which is to include CBL/SAT/OTA when referring to HD available to the consumer? (Only FIOS is not "OTA" - it is a hard wired system)

You seem to feel that people really want better PQ. Is this your own opinion or are you basing it on articles, studies, etc?

Even assuming one was to only review those articles ou listed, one would *still* not come to the conlcusions you have come to. In the year 2007, to state that the general public is apathetic towards HDTV, you would need to be living in a cave.

I'm sure we can check these very boards 3-4 years ago and read through post after post of doom and gloom... "HD will be dead in 2 weeks!", "primetime programming will never be HD!!!", "SD PWNS HD... LOLZ!".

Come back in 2 years and we shall see where HD stands. As for HDM, your guess is as good as mine. But as for HD in general, you are stuck in 1999.

P.S. If you want studies and articles, I suggest you look up some great 1980's articles from "industry experts" telling us all how Betamax would rule the world. Or better yet, I'll personally email you the 1000 or so that predicted dominance for the PS3.

So here is my list of negatives for HDM and why I feel it will be a niche:

I would add "lack of catalog content".

I am probably not part of the demographic that can make these products a success, but there are some of us out here and we buy quite a few titles. I have about 800 on SD-DVD.

I have around 150 titles in my Netflix queue and exactly 1 is available in HD. (But, if I wanted to see giant cartoon robots in HD I could probably get it from a local store).

Because older and more obscure titles are not going to sell, it is understandable that studios don't give them any priority. But this is a catch-22, because it also makes HDM a lower priority for people like me. Like a bookstore that carries nothing but bestsellers (which, indeed, do make all the money) -- what about the people who won't even go into the store?

To add further peril: if the old titles are not going to be remastered for HD, then the SD-DVD versions (where they even exist) are as good as it gets. No point in just copying them to HDM, which I suspect is what will happen in many cases, should the flood gates open.

And, frankly, many of the old sources might not benefit from remastering; the film stock is just too poor. Nothing the studios can do about that, but it means that in some cases SD-DVD is "good enough" -- it has to be.

-Bill

It seems a lot of people are getting defensive over the possibility that HDM may not make it mainstream. It seems pretty much set in stone to them that it will succeed. This is not the case, nor is it even close. We still have a way to go on this, but as I see it now, it may never reach critical mass. There is too much content available through other means. Other means which continue to grow......and are a lot more popular.

I don't happen to think the succes of HDM is "set in stone". I never said that. I will however gladly bet my life savings that HD in general is "set in stone".

You can argue the merits of HDM all day long, but the argument that more HD content = less interest in HDM just doesn't make any sense.

Unfortunately the HD train is pulling more than one boxcar.

We already know the multitude of HD programming that is available to the public (See who is really the 800lb Gorilla thread).

The more HDTV's that populate households - the more HD "OTA" responds. THEY - the CBL and SAT companies are the BIG winners in the transition to HDTV (first stop - all Digital).

I can honestly say that MOJO is NOT a HD channel I watch. But Discovery HD Theater is one I watch alot. Now many of my favorite SD channesl are coming to HD - Discovery, History, Sci-Fi, The Science Channel . . . just to name a few. Even SPEED is going HD next year. As they add channels - my available selection broadens. And I don't pay any extra for these additional channels.

NOTE: I drool for the day the Barrett-Jackson is broadcast in HD:D

So I am getting more HD - but not paying more for it (THANK GOD!)

More HD for me and the millions who own HDTV's. Also less time to watch HD on Disc movies.
Yes. OTA/cable/satellite is the 362.9kg gorilla.

DVD only had to compete with analog-cable. Cable is a lot stronger now, with digital (enabling many more specialized channels), VOD and TiVo (enabling greater convenience).

Even assuming one was to only review those articles ou listed, one would *still* not come to the conlcusions you have come to. In the year 2007, to state that the general public is apathetic towards HDTV, you would need to be living in a cave.

I'm sure we can check these very boards 3-4 years ago and read through post after post of doom and gloom... "HD will be dead in 2 weeks!", "primetime programming will never be HD!!!", "SD PWNS HD... LOLZ!".

Come back in 2 years and we shall see where HD stands. As for HDM, your guess is as good as mine. But as for HD in general, you are stuck in 1999.

P.S. If you want studies and articles, I suggest you look up some great 1980's articles from "industry experts" telling us all how Betamax would rule the world. Or better yet, I'll personally email you the 1000 or so that predicted dominance for the PS3.

So what you are saying is that you do not agree with the studies at all. That though HDTV's are selling like hotcakes - the addition of HD sources that the consumer is adding is doing just as well?

What proof can you submit to this thread to back up or support your opinion?

Did you look at the dates of the articles? (October 31 2007 and November 7 2007)

HDTV as a source came out in I believe 1998 (or 1999 - Jay Leno show - can't remember the year - memory is failing:D) HDTV sales exploded in 2006. Lets take the 1999 to 2006 as the "time it had to get going" - the benefit of the doubt. That is 7 years. Now we are talking about 2013. Do you honestly believe HDM has until 2013 to be successful? I don't.


You are right - they are different - the clock is moving faster than ever. The "principals" are there to compare - but when we factor in this time issue - it does not bode well for HDM.


http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/11918.cfm

There are a few things I wanted to address from this post, but since I haven't mastered the ability to multi-quote, I'll stick to this one point.

Are you predicting HD downloads will replace HDM? Or, in order to be consistent with your "apathy towards HD" theory, will SD downloads replace HDM?

It seems a lot of people are getting defensive over the possibility that HDM may not make it mainstream. It seems pretty much set in stone to them that it will succeed. This is not the case, nor is it even close. We still have a way to go on this, but as I see it now, it may never reach critical mass. There is too much content available through other means. Other means which continue to grow......and are a lot more popular.

Sure some might be defensive. But transversely some also might be a bit chicken little'y as well don't ya think?

I do.

Yes. OTA/cable/satellite is the 362.9kg gorilla.

DVD only had to compete with analog-cable. Cable is a lot stronger now, with digital (enabling many more specialized channels), VOD and TiVo (enabling greater convenience).

And DVD looked far better than CBL or even SAT didn't it? The only wat to exceed the PQ of DVD was to have a BUD (Big Ugly Dish) and even that was questionable, especially if you had a 16x9 RPYV which millions had due to the 16x9 Enhancement feature DVD had which BUD did not have. BUD may have had slightly better Hort. Res, but DVD excelled in Vert. Res. IMO it was one of the things that helped DVD get the reputation of "Best PQ" available.

So is the difference between HD CBL/SAT and HDM the same difference between VHS and DVD? IMO - no it isn't. Not even close.

So what you are saying is that you do not agree with the studies at all. That though HDTV's are selling like hotcakes - the addition of HD sources is doing just as well?

What proof can you submit to this thread to back up or support your opinion?

Did you look at the dates of the articles? October 31 2007 and November 7 2007)

The dates on those articles are irrelevant. The point was that the opinions of "industry experts" and snapshot "studies" are often meaningless. A few studies on the percentage of HD-ready homes watching HD content, while certainly not irrelevant, is hardly "proof" that the public has turned up their noses towards HD.

I won't diminish the "hang it on a wall" effect, but to think that most people are dropping $2000 for a glorified picture frame is nuts. Let's face facts, HD can be confusing. 720p, 1080i, 1080p, upconverting, downconverting, 4:3, 16:9, the need for a cable box, the need to pay extra for HD channels, HD channels that show NOTHING in HD, etc. The evolution from SD to HD isn't going to happen overnight.

Cable companies are going to be upselling HD like rabid SOB's in the coming years. In Ontario, it's already started. To suggest that there will be a massive install base (which can no longer be denied by the doomsday crowd) of HDTV's, yet the owners of those TV's have no interest in HD programming is 1999 thinking. Ifyou want studies and articles, you can refer to the ones you posted and replace the "only's" (they must use that word 5000 times) with "already's".

And as to your "PQ doesn't mean jack" argument. Tell me, on average, did TV's made in 1972 have the same level of PQ as 2000 models? The same goes for television cameras, etc. If there was no profit motive to improve PQ, why did all these television manufacturers waste their time and resources out PQ-ing eachother?

Even in the days of SD, I never met a man (or woman for that matter) who wanted to replace his TV with one that looked worse.

There are a few things I wanted to address from this post, but since I haven't mastered the ability to multi-quote, I'll stick to this one point.

Neither have I:o So all i do is open a NOTEPAD and do a copy/paste then wrap the statements i want to address with the QUOTE button - it works for me!:D

Are you predicting HD downloads will replace HDM? Or, in order to be consistant with your "apathy towards HD" theory, will SD downloads replace HDM?

Sorry - Crystal Ball is not working today:D

The purpose of linking the article is to show that there is a BIG company out there that is now selling "real" high speed internet . . . that could be used for HD DNL. Someone said this cuts the DNL time down by a factor of almost 10X.

We are already seeing in the marketplace that consumers are voting with their wallets and choosing convinence over quality - MP3 and iPod.

The Apathy is to HD. If it costs money - the delivery system does not affect the apathy unless the cost becomes very small.

I would add "lack of catalog content".

Not just catalog titles. Even recent releases are very limited. How many of Rotten Tomatoes' "best of 2006" are available on HDM? A pretty small number.http://www.rottentomatoes.com/top/bestofrt_year.php?year=2006

I want HD, however 7 of the past 8 discs I've bought were SD DVDs. I would love to buy all my media in HD, but it simply isn't available.

The dates on those articles are irrelevant. The point was that the opinions of "industry experts" and snapshot "studies" are often meaningless. A few studies on the percentage of HD-ready homes watching HD content, while certainly not irrelevant, is hardly "proof" that the public has turned up their noses towards HD.

If you want me to clearly see what you are writing as something more than just your opinion - you have to give me some 3rd party facts. Or else we are at the "we agree to disagree" stage of the discussion.

I won't diminish the "hang it on a wall" effect, but to think that most people are dropping $2000 for a glorified picture frame is nuts. Let's face facts, HD can be confusing. 720p, 1080i, 1080p, upconverting, downconverting, 4:3, 16:9, the need for a cable box, the need to pay extra for HD channels, HD channels that show NOTHING in HD, etc.

So how do you explain the FACT that the once "king" of media displays . . . the RPTV - is now in a distant 3rd place with less than 10% of the sales of HDTV's? I mean for the same money - you can get about 10" to 15" more image diagional which is about 30% more image. And it's been "1080P" ever since the TI 1080P DLP chip started to be used.

Cable companies are going to be upselling HD like rabid SOB's in the coming years. In Ontario, it's already started. To suggest that there will be a massive install base (which can no longer be denied by the doomsday crowd) of HDTV's, yet the owners of those TV's have no interest in HD programming is 1999 thinking. Ifyou want studies and articles, you can refer to the ones you posted and replace the "only's" (they must use that word 5000 times) with "already's".

We are past 45 million HDTV's installed in the USA today. The CEA estimates 53 million by 12/31/07.

So please - give us a number - how many do YOU think are actually watching HD on their HDTV?

You are lumping HD with HDTV and that is not acceptable. One is a programming source/content - the other is a display device.

Neither have I:o So all i do is open a NOTEPAD and do a copy/paste then wrap the statements i want to address with the QUOTE button - it works for me!:D



Sorry - Crystal Ball is not working today:D

The purpose of linking the article is to show that there is a BIG company out there that is now selling "real" high speed internet . . . that could be used for HD DNL. Someone said this cuts the DNL time down by a factor of almost 10X.

We are already seeing in the marketplace that consumers are voting with their wallets and choosing convinence over quality - MP3 and iPod.

The Apathy is to HD. If it costs money - the delivery system does not affect the apathy unless the cost becomes very small.

Thanks for the quote tips :)

So, just to be clear, you are predicting SD downloads will rule the roost? Keep in mind that there would be no reason beyond improved PQ for HD downloads.

If it's "quality" vs. "flexibility and portability" then we already know what will win. Low quality MP3 took over the world while SACD/DVD-A was ignored except by a tiny niche.

The teens and twenty-somethings of today are watching movies on their iphones and/or internet. Are they going to buy into HDM?

George Lucas thinks the future of movies is small screens and internet delivery. I wouldn't be surprised if he is right.

My college-age nephew was over for the holidays and while he was slightly interested in blu-ray and the large plasma television I got the faint impression that he deemed it as old fashioned as a VHS collection seems to me.

Thanks for the quote tips :)

So, just to be clear, you are predicting SD downloads will rule the roost? Keep in mind that there would be no reason beyond improved PQ for HD downloads.

I have predicted nothing of the sort. My prediction is that HDM will not be the glowing success that many hope for. For all the reasons I have stated in this thread. It will be a niche product . . . just like LD was. LD Part 2.:(

PS: HDM = High Def Media = HD DVD and BD

If you want me to clearly see what you are writing as something more than just your opinion - you have to give me some 3rd party facts. Or else we are at the "we agree to disagree" stage of the discussion.



So how do you explain the FACT that the once "king" of media displays . . . the RPTV - is now in a distant 3rd place with less than 10% of the sales of HDTV's? I mean for the same money - you can get about 10" to 15" more image diagional which is about 30% more image. And it's been "1080P" ever since the TI 1080P DLP chip started to be used.



We are past 45 million HDTV's installed in the USA today. The CEA estimates 53 million by 12/31/07.

So please - give us a number - how many do YOU think are actually watching HD on their HDTV?

You are lumping HD with HDTV and that is not acceptable. One is a programming source - the other is a display device.

1. I'm not disputing your "facts", nor do the arguments I'm making rely on different figures or "expert articles". I'm disputing your interpretation of those facts. If I could find a study demonstrating the ungodly amount of time "experts" citing "studies" were dead wrong regarding technology trends, I would gladly paste the link. Sadly, I don't believe there has been such a study. My main argument is that those studies are almost completely irrelevant.

2. Again, I strongly dispute your interpretation of that FACT. You see (wrongly IMO) that the public cares not for HD, so they chose the prettiest television they can find, regardless of PQ. I see (correctly IMO) that the public is faced with many options for SD or HD viewing and has chosen HD. Once that choice was made, they can then chose which HD option suits them best.

This gets to a vital question in our little exchange. Why do people replace their TV's? Does Joe Sixpacks TV die one day, he gets in the car, drives to Walmart, and picks up whatever piece of crap he first lays eyes on? Or does he make the choice to buy a new TV for improved PQ? When it comes time, people replace their televisions whith new ones that look better, not worse. PQ matters.

3. I won't dispute even the lowest estimate. Simply not relevant at this stage of the game. The switch from SD to HD is a MASSIVE undertaking. There is the chicken and egg of programming vs. viewers, yet year after year both numbers rise.

Your fundamental philosophy, that "PQ doesn't mean jack", is faulty in my opinion. And once one does not accept that premiss, the entire argument collapses.

I have predicted nothing of the sort. My prediction is that HDM will not be the glowing success that many hope for. For all the reasons I have stated in this thread. It will be a niche product . . . just like LD was. LD Part 2.:(

PS: HDM = High Def Media = HD DVD and BD

Hey, I'm only about 50/50 on whether HDM will ultimately succeed. Unfortunately, I can definitely see HDM being a niche product. So there isn't too much disagreement between us there. I think the big disagreement is with HD in general.

does anyone have nielsen data for LD's peak? Maybe if we can compare those numbers to the nielsen data for VHS (assuming the peak was pre dvd) we could have some kind of idea what HDM has to accomplish to at least break through that barrier.

Hey, I'm only about 50/50 on whether HDM will ultimately succeed. Unfortunately, I can definitely see HDM being a niche product. So there isn't too much disagreement between us there. I think the big disagreement is with HD in general.

I will respond to this post as opposed to the one before it, because we are now off topic of the OP in this thread. HD is a different subject then HDM.

I use the info and conclusions to form my opinion that:

1. What has happened in the past is happening again - using a broad view MACRO look.

2. My conclusion, using the same formula from above is that if the public is not enamoured with HD on their HDTV - then how could they possibly be interested in HDM which will give them approx. the same thing - and probably cost more in some cases and much more in one case - OTA - the only expense is putting up an antenna. (which it turns out is the least popular way to get HD.)

does anyone have nielsen data for LD's peak? Maybe if we can compare those numbers to the nielsen data for VHS (assuming the peak was pre dvd) we could have some kind of idea what HDM has to accomplish to at least break through that barrier.

That info is going to be next to impossible to find. Here is what I remember (memory is clear on this info:D)

1. The average pressing was about 10,000 . Some did go to 20,000 - a few went to 30,000. When Star Wars was released - they pressed about 100,000+. Does this help? And at the time - VHS was in the millions.

2. We have a "goal" already - or at least I do - last week 1998 - in one week DVD sold over 750,000 movies. This fact comes from CES 1999 - from Nielsen - and included Wal- Mart.

12/24/98 to 12/31/98 is equal to the same week in 2007 - when you compare DVD to HDM.

OBTW - found this concerning LD:

The format was not well-received outside of videophile circles in North America, but became more popular in Japan. Part of the reason was marketing. In North America, the cost of the players and discs was kept far higher than VHS decks and tapes (mainly to combat anticipated losses at the box office)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laserdisc#Laserdisc_vs._DVD

Any correlation bewteen that statement and the high price of HDM?

That info is going to be next to impossible to find. Here is what I remember (memory is clear on this info:D)

1. The average pressing was about 10,000 . Some did go to 20,000 - a few went to 30,000. When Star Wars was released - they pressed about 100,000+. Does this help? And at the time - VHS was in the millions.

2. We have a "goal" already - or at least I do - last week 1998 - in one week DVD sold over 750,000 movies. This fact comes from CES 1999 - from Nielsen - and included Wal- Mart.

12/24/98 to 12/31/98 is equal to the same week in 2007 - when you compare DVD to HDM.

OBTW - found this concerning LD:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laserdisc#Laserdisc_vs._DVD

Any correlation bewteen that statement and the high price of HDM?



Well what I was hoping for was a ratio to rival/replacement format approximate.
So we could have some actual science to figuring out how far HDM has to go before it's out of LD realm. It's kind of a subjective/objective apples to oranges debate with out it.
I don't think I would classify the cost of HDM as "far higher". I also don't recall any Laserdiscs or players being sold at major retailers like Best Buy/Walmart. At least not at the ones I shopped at. It's kind of unfair to say their similar because they cost more than their predecessor/mainstream rival. That's almost always the case with new technology. I recall buying LD's on average for around $40-50 a pop. I would go out on a limb and predict you could say every new format that comes out in our lifetime will at first, cost more than the format before it. HDM prices today are pretty comparable to DVD prices at this point in it's life cycle.

Well what I was hoping for was a ratio to rival/replacement format approximate.
So we could have some actual science to figuring out how far HDM has to go before it's out of LD realm. It's kind of a subjective/objective apples to oranges debate with out it.
I don't think I would classify the cost of HDM as "far higher". I also don't recall any Laserdiscs or players being sold at major retailers like Best Buy/Walmart. At least not at the ones I shopped at. It's kind of unfair to say their similar because they cost more than their predecessor/mainstream rival. That's almost always the case with new technology. I recall buying LD's on average for around $40-50 a pop. I would go out on a limb and predict you could say every new format that comes out in our lifetime will at first, cost more than the format before it. HDM prices today are pretty comparable to DVD prices at this point in it's life cycle.

OK . . so what about this?

We have a "goal" already - or at least I do - last week 1998 - in one week DVD sold over 750,000 movies. This fact comes from CES 1999 - from Nielsen - and included Wal- Mart.

12/24/98 to 12/31/98 is equal to the same week in 2007 - when you compare DVD to HDM.

FACTS:

1. DVD ID - 3/97
2. HDM ID - 4/06
3. Not all studios were releasing on DVD
4. 12/31/98 is 22 months including March from ID
4. 12/31/07 is 21 months including April from ID

ID = Inception Date.

The issue of needing an HDTV to see HDM . . . there will be 53 million HDTV's installed by 12/31/07 - is this issue relevant?

I see (correctly IMO) that the public is faced with many options for SD or HD viewing and has chosen HD.
If people are really interested in picture quality, why don't HD CRTs sell? CRTs offer superior color and contrast over LCDs. But no one cared about HD CRTs. As I've said before, no one cared about HD until flat panel LCD and Plasma screens came around, because it's really the form-factor that attacts consumers to these televisions.

Laser Disc survived until the advent of DVD, no?
Most "big screen" titles were released on LD, no?

So, even if HDM survives in said "niche", would it not still survive until a superior, more desirable format comes to be?

OK . . so what about this?



The issue of needing an HDTV to see HDM . . . there will be 53 million HDTV's installed by 12/31/07 - is this issue relevant?

I would say it's relevant.

How many millions of SDTV's had been installed by DVD's inception. I would assume a lot more than 53 million. HDM is obviously in a symbiotic (some might argue parasitic) relationship with HDTV. This is somewhat of a new paradigm we're dealing with here. It's really hard for me to look at anything in the past and correlate to future events in HDM - with any real confidence. I'm not saying I disgree with you Lee. You may very well be right. Maybe your finger is on the pulse of something with this. But I can't shake the feeling I'm shaking my proverbial dick in the wind, when I try to predict the future with HDM. ::D

Seems I am not the only one who is concerned about time and is comparing HDM to LD:

Kevin Tsujihara

Executive Vice President, New Media, Warner Bros.

At a time when the home video business is flat and HD media presents our best hope for near term growth our focus as an industry should be on the consumer and creating the most attractive scenario for them.We have a window of opportunity here and if we continue to perpetuate consumer confusion HD media may become the next laser disk.

http://www.contentagenda.com/info/CA6442866.html

Laser Disc survived until the advent of DVD, no?

Correct - it did go a bit further after DVD came out but for all intents and purposes - it died the day DVD came out.

Most "big screen" titles were released on LD, no?

Over 20 years - over 18,000 titles were released in the USA - more in Japan.

In 10 years DVD has released over 77,000 titles and 2X that for non-movie DVD's.

So, even if HDM survives in said "niche", would it not still survive until a superior, more desirable format comes to be?

You mean survive until the next big thing comes out - right? If this is what you meant - then yes. But how do you define "niche" in todays market? Limited releases with superior specs?

I waited almost 40 years to see the St. Valentine's Day Massacure in OAR (never on VHS or LD and just came out on DVD this year) - My favorite Gangster Movie. Will I ever see it in HD?

If they release 18,000 movies on HDM, I will be a happy camper.

Upscaling is getting better every day for SDDVD released.
<See Die Hard 4 Unrated, upscaled beautifully.>

HDM and DVD could co-exists IMO, once the ICs and laser diodes become cost efficient enough to put in more consumer priced players.

LD was a different size than DVD (and VHS), HDM has much better odds since it uses the 5" disc that CDs and DVDs have shoehorned into our homes, cars, and computers.

Just a matter of cost of the new ICs and diodes, not a new tray like LD required.

I would say it's relevant.

How many millions of SDTV's had been installed by DVD's inception. I would assume a lot more than 53 million. HDM is obviously in a symbiotic (some might argue parasitic) relationship with HDTV. This is somewhat of a new paradigm we're dealing with here. It's really hard for me to look at anything in the past and correlate to future events in HDM - with any real confidence. I'm not saying I disgree with you Lee. You may very well be right. Maybe your finger is on the pulse of something with this. But I can't shake the feeling I'm shaking my proverbial dick in the wind, when I try to predict the future with HDM. ::D

Most of the buyers of DVD early - were LD owners - that is a fact. That is why LD died so quickly.

The issue of relevant - means to me, that there are already over 45 million+ HDTV's installed. So are we depending on them to buy an HDM player? They have already dealt with the cost of the HDTV. Now - HDM is just an addition. If so (I hope so) what percentage? This is where the rubber meets the road by the way.

Are we depending on new buyers of HDTV's to buy HDM? How do they compare to old buyers? Cost goes up about 20% over the cost of just an HDTV (if HD is choosen) and 35 to 40% for BD (assumes cost of HDTV is $1000)

If you are having trouble going back in the distant past - what about the recent past? Say 1/1/06? Between 1/1/06 and 12/31/07 - 29 million HDTVs were/will be sold to consumers. Does that help to see the problem we are discussing?

If they release 18,000 movies on HDM, I will be a happy camper.

But it took 20 years to do this. Does HDM have 18.6 years?

Upscaling is getting better every day for SDDVD released.
<See Die Hard 4 Unrated, upscaled beautifully.>

One of the 800lb Gorilla's - could be closer to 1200 lbs if you ask me;)

HDM and DVD could co-exists IMO, once the ICs and laser diodes become cost efficient enough to put in more consumer priced players.

LD was a different size than DVD (and VHS), HDM has much better odds since it uses the 5" disc that CDs and DVDs have shoehorned into our homes, cars, and computers.

Just a matter of cost of the new ICs and diodes, not a new tray like LD required.

It is not a question of size or parts used.

If you are an Early Adopter - if someone promises you and can deliver 4000x2000 16 bit Ultra HD and you have to use 2 dixie cups and a wire to get it . . . where do I sign?:D

And how much more will it be over what it costs me now for 2000x1000 8 bit HD?

If all 5" HD disc players became the same price as DVD players then people would stop buying DVD players. Plus the software cost would have to be lowered to the same as DVD.

So what is the enticement for studios and CEM's to do this and BTW - the current CEM's don't make DVD players - no profit in $30 DVD players.

Most of the buyers of DVD early - were LD owners - that is a fact. That is why LD died so quickly.

The issue of relevant - means to me, that there are already over 45 million+ HDTV's installed. So are we depending on them to buy an HDM player? They have already dealt with the cost of the HDTV. Now - HDM is just an addition. If so (I hope so) what percentage? This is where the rubber meets the road by the way.

Are we depending on new buyers of HDTV's to buy HDM? How do they compare to old buyers? Cost goes up about 20% over the cost of just an HDTV (if HD is choosen) and 35 to 40% for BD (assumes cost of HDTV is $1000)

If you are having trouble going back in the distant past - what about the recent past? Say 1/1/06? Between 1/1/06 and 12/31/07 - 29 million HDTVs were/will be sold to consumers. Does that help to see the problem we are discussing?

Dude Lee,

I see the problem fine. and I wouldn't have a problem with going back to the year 1406 if I thought it would yield any real answers. I just feel less dramatic about the problem than you do is all. You seem fairly certain HDM is doomed to niche' status. Or at the very least certain doom in the near future is mass adoption doesn't happen. Fine. I just don't feel, when everything is said and done... that any of us will have guessed exactly how this ended up playing out. I think new rules are going to be written.
and In 15 years people will be resigning to those new rules to predict the next format war.
But hey if you're right.. round of beers on me!

Dude Lee,

I see the problem fine. and I wouldn't have a problem with going back to the year 1406 if I thought it would yield any real answers. I just feel less dramatic about the problem than you do is all. You seem fairly certain HDM is doomed to niche' status. Or at the very least certain doom in the near future is mass adoption doesn't happen. Fine. I just don't feel, when everything is said and done... that any of us will have guessed exactly how this ended up playing out. I think new rules are going to be written.
and In 15 years people will be resigning to those new rules to predict the next format war.
But hey if you're right.. round of beers on me!

I would much rather be wrong then right BTW.;)

I am not a Pessimist. I am a Realist on this issue and an Optomisist on others like the TL51 and the Twin format.

PS: "Dude Lee" . . . ?

I would much rather be wrong then right BTW.;)

I am not a Pessimist. I am a Realist on this issue and an Optomisist on others like the TL51 and the Twin format.

PS: "Dude Lee" . . . ?

I don't know what I was thinking when I typed that. I think it has something to do wtih watching Point Break today though.

HDM will not die until DVD dies.

This is because of part cost.

It will go down.

CEMs will have little interest in making optical disc players that exclude millions of media owners, for just a few more dollars a to make a duel...TRI-format player. DVD/HD-DVD/BD format player.

These laser diodes will come down with the advent of the introduction of the blue laser into computers.

The ICs will come down at the same rate because there will be "competition" (some day;)) in the production of HDM capable players.

Technology gets cheaper exponentially.

See what cell phones cost 18 months ago.

Now you can get PDA cells for $99 or less.

The ICs and lasers needed to play back HDM will be a non-factor in player cost by the time Sony or Toshiba stop making the discs.

I don't know what I was thinking when I typed that. I think it has something to do wtih watching Point Break today though.

:D . . . DEFINITELY understand how that could happen.

HDM will not die until DVD dies.

So what about CED, ED-Beta, HD-LD and S-VHS?

This is because of part cost.

It will go down.

CEMs will have little interest in making optical disc players that exclude millions of media owners, for just a few more dollars a to make a duel...TRI-format player. DVD/HD-DVD/BD format player.

These laser diodes will come down with the advent of the introduction of the blue laser into computers.

The ICs will come down at the same rate because there will be "competition" (some day;)) in the production of HDM capable players.

Technology gets cheaper exponentially.

See what cell phones cost 18 months ago.

Now you can get PDA cells for $99 or less.

The ICs and lasers needed to play back HDM will be a non-factor in player cost by the time Sony or Toshiba stop making the discs.

What if I told you the only difference in price between the parts of a 2.0 BD player and a DF player was $20? Parts only. Not the license to use the HD DVD Logo.

So what about CED, ED-Beta, HD-LD and S-VHS?

CED was cased media, not compatible with the 5" tray/motor.
ED-BETA, well died with Beta. BD and HDDVD both use the same size media, same size drive. VHS and Beta did not.
S/D-VHS died due to DVD.

5" footprint is actually the best thing HDM has going for it. Due the the amount of 5" drives/manufacturing lines in existence. Only a new laser a couple different ICs are needed to make the mass produced optical disc players HDM ready.

What if I told you the only difference in price between the parts of a 2.0 BD player and a DF player was $20? Parts only. Not the license to use the HD DVD Logo.

Are you saying the licensing is more costly than the parts?
Sony and Toshiba need to get together on a DF player platform. IMO, for either to thrive, both must thrive (at this point in the game).

Seeing two shelves of media and hearing about the studio separation, is your 8 ton elephant behind the 800lb gorilla.

Sony can sell BDs and Toshiba can reap royalties from HD DVD sales and both can reap the benefits of DF (TF) player sales.

These players need to/will show up NEXT holiday season, for $99, for this boat to float.

Then J6P will know his Tri-Format player will play the colored cases, which look and sound better and cost a little more, as well as the amary DVD cases, which cost less.

Toshiba shot themselves in the foot packing 300 and Bourne Identity into all these holiday boxes. Both are great movies, but neither is a good "first time showpiece" for HDM. King Kong and The Matrix would have fared much better.

People who got into HDM this month opened accounts here and started threads asking what is wrong with their player because 300 looks grainy (we know it's intentional) and Bourne looks like a good upscale (because we know it actually does:eek:).

Point is, a good pack in disc is key.

This will make me sound like a BD pusher since I just bashed Toshibas freebies, but all the new 40GB PS3 owners (Spidey 3 pack in) will be very pleased. (As long as they do not connect with the packaged composite cable. Stupid, stupid, stupid Sony:eek: DOH!)

5" footprint is actually the best thing HDM has going for it. Due the the amount of 5" drives/manufacturing lines in existence. Only a new laser a couple different ICs are needed to make the mass produced optical disc players HDM ready.

What is - is what is. But IMO one of the down falls will be the fact that HDM shares the same "platform" as CD and DVD, To the public - it looks the same. This is already creating confusion with UP DVD players claiming 1080P output.

Sometimes you can do too good a job of marketing and advertising - and IMO - it is coming around to bite HDM in the tush.

Are you saying the licensing is more costly than the parts?
Sony and Toshiba need to get together on a DF player platform. IMO, for either to thrive, both must thrive (at this point in the game).

I do not know what the licensing fee is for HD DVD. There are not that many differences between a HD and BD player - main one is the optical pickup - the lens assembly.

It is not up to Sony or Toshiba to make DF players. It is really up to the studios to go neutral and release in both formats and let the consumer decide. Each wants the other to lose - not much room for compromise there.

Seeing two shelves of media and hearing about the studio separation, is your 8 ton elephant behind the 800lb gorilla

:D

Sony can sell BDs and Toshiba can reap royalties from HD DVD sales and both can reap the benefits of DF (TF) player sales.

We do not live in a perfect world unfortunately. But if a stalemate is the inevidable outcome - maybe something will change.

For the CEM's and the studios to expect the consumer to buy two players, or an expensive DF player in a mass adoption market is not a good business plan. How long do you think it iwll take for a DF player to street for $199 assuming it can go that low with the dual licenses?

These players need to/will show up NEXT holiday season, for $99, for this boat to float.

Then J6P will know his Tri-Format player will play the colored cases, which look and sound better and cost a little more, as well as the amary DVD cases, which cost less.

DF players? I strongly doubt that.

Toshiba shot themselves in the foot packing 300 and Bourne Identity into all these holiday boxes. Both are great movies, but neither is a good "first time showpiece" for HDM. King Kong and The Matrix would have fared much better.

Both were put in the Gen3 players to show the new HD DVD consumer not only does it look better than his DVD, but more important, the special features like IME and IF. THESE are critical to the growth of HDM IMO.

People who got into HDM this month opened accounts here and started threads asking what is wrong with their player because 300 looks grainy (we know it's intentional) and Bourne looks like a good upscale (because we know it actually does:eek:).

300 is still the best selling HD title so far. It has some very advanced SF's - personally it was the worst film I ever saw in a theater ever! It replaced Traffic as my #1 all time NO PQ film - and both the DVD and HDM have captured that look perfectly.


Point is, a good pack in disc is key.

This will make me sound like a BD pusher since I just bashed Toshibas freebies, but all the new 40GB PS3 owners (Spidey 3 pack in) will be very pleased. (As long as they do not connect with the packaged composite cable. Stupid, stupid, stupid Sony:eek: DOH!)

Good choice - a perfect fit for the PS3. Just like the 2 HD DVD's are a perfect fit for the Gen3's.;)

300 is the best selling HD-DVD. I assume Transformers is second.

Spidermans, 300 and Casino Royale are the best selling BDs.

You see a demographic trend their?

I'm not as "long in the tooth" as many posters here (26).

I got into HDM via my PS3. It was about three weeks before I bought my first BD. (X-Men 3, wanted to test HD out with a good special effects flick)

I was an audiophile before that, as I own over 1K CDs(few SACDs and DVD-A's as well) and have always had a great stereo. (And many failed garage band attempts;))

I post on gaming forums too, and ya know what? They talk HDM all day their too(albeit in a far less professional manner).

This "Gaming Generation" that many HT enthusiasts here see as a downfall is actually the 800 lb gorilla in HDMs corner.

They learned about HD from HD gaming. They know about HDMI from the new gaming consoles. They know their resolutions and can tell an "i" from a "p", and component from composite.

HT enthusiasts seem to dislike 300 and Transformers.

If HT enthusiasts were really pushing this market than films like Casablanca, Phantom of the Opera, The Prestige, Close Encounters and 2001 would be topping the charts.

They are not.

The gaming consoles/HD home media centers, are the best chance HDM has at survival.

As luck would have it, these console use the 5" disc.

I think of HDM as an extension of DVD, like DD 3.5" floppys of old. They required a new head to read them, but with time, these parts became cheap and the double density floppys became the norm. No one, except for PC enthusiasts, blinked, it just happened for the general public.

That is all HDM needs. With time, optical disc players will have HD DVD and Blu-Ray logos right next to the Dolby, DVD, and DTS logos marking the top/front of the player. You will notice it, J6P will not. They will know that the new players play the HD movies in the colored cases.

This is an evolution, you are correct. IMO and evolution happens easier than a revolution.

CEMs like it more because they can use existing chassis design and the same production lines, etc.

A few new components placed in manufacturing lines of optical players that have been in place since the advent of the CD, is all that needs to happen for the DF player. IMO it is closer than we think, Sony and Tosh(who, as you know, are fine working togther) need to let China run wild with the DF chips and crank out cheap DF players, and yes, it can happen in a year.

Look at the figures, gaming is trumping Hollywood now. They used to make games based on movies, now they make movies based on games.

The gaming community is getting older/more wealthy, and the generational torch is being passed.
These "gamers" know how to work an HDTV and have some idea on how to work an AVR. That part will grow with age;).

This is who will drive HDM into the future.

DVD will not go away.

Bo-Flex will not be sending out free Blu-Rays about their product.
Computer software does not need 30-50 GB of space for applications. (Back-ups yes)
DVDs will be used for as long as I can see with out getting all Sci-Fi here.
Their use extends movies. Companies crank them out as promo items and such.

HDM offers backwards compatibility and should be touted for that instead of bashed, ala, "if you buy SD you are hurting HD man!" that I read here all the time.

DVD is going nowhere. HDM will only complement it.

See Transformers 2 for the first HDM title to break a 2 million units.
...and let the flood gates open.


Now, for the real question.

Are Sony and Tosh "wagging the dog" with two formats?
I doubt that a single format would have generated nearly as much buzz as this "format war" has. The fact that a war is taking place is the only thing newsworthy about this whole medium.

Me thinks they thought longer than we did about this, and red vs. blu sells. Youtube red vs. blue and you will find seasons of Halo made "shows". Gangster rap glorified bloods and crips for a while. The colors of these cases are a little too convenient if you ask me.

Could DF have been planned since the inception? Lord forbid;)

HDM has one thing going for it that laser disc and dvd didn't have.

Backwards compatiblity .

People adopting hdm don't need to rebuy their old content . Not ever movie needs to be rebought and it simply wont. There will be movies that some feel warrent the upgrade.

But if we fast foward as lee says to 2012 . It wont be 20% of the market , it will be 100% of the market. There wont be a reason to make dvd players when hd dvd players (or bluray) cost $50 bucks . At some point perhaps by 2009 depending how the war goes , people will simply be buying hdm players and slowly but surely the software will follow suit.

This is why I think hd dvd is in a postion to win. Hd dvd with combo discs can bridge the gap in the time frame when people own 1 or 2 hd dvd players because they are cheap and they have nice tvs in 2 rooms of the house but still have dvd players in the car or the kids room . This will be a big thing as combo discs drop in price. It will be the new full screen sku.

HDM has one thing going for it that laser disc and dvd didn't have.

Backwards compatiblity .

People adopting hdm don't need to rebuy their old content . Not ever movie needs to be rebought and it simply wont. There will be movies that some feel warrent the upgrade.

IMO - this is a double edged sword. It is a product of HDM being evolutionary as opposed to revolutionary. The good thing - just buy a player and an HDMI cable and all your DVD's will look better. Unfortunately the bad thing is that now you don't have to buy new HD versions of your existing library - which we are already seeing. One fact we do know - catalog tiles on HDM don't sell. Only brand new movies do.

But if we fast foward as lee says to 2012 . It wont be 20% of the market , it will be 100% of the market. There wont be a reason to make dvd players when hd dvd players (or bluray) cost $50 bucks . At some point perhaps by 2009 depending how the war goes , people will simply be buying hdm players and slowly but surely the software will follow suit.

This assumes that HDM is equal to DVD today in all aspects which include $30 players and $3.00 movies. I just don't see this happening because it does not help the CEM's nor the studios to achieve the higher profit margins they are looking to get out of HDM. At least not in 6 years after SI. 10 year? Maybe - probably.

This is why I think hd dvd is in a postion to win. Hd dvd with combo discs can bridge the gap in the time frame when people own 1 or 2 hd dvd players because they are cheap and they have nice tvs in 2 rooms of the house but still have dvd players in the car or the kids room . This will be a big thing as combo discs drop in price. It will be the new full screen sku.


Yes - a definite advantage that has yet to be taken advantage of.;)

Any possibility that playing HD becomes a feature like progressive scan, then we had upscaling, now HD. Then HDM players would just be a natural replacement to a SD player.

Any possibility that playing HD becomes a feature like progressive scan, then we had upscaling, now HD. Then HDM players would just be a natural replacement to a SD player.

Maybe. PS did not require you to buy new movies in a different format. All it did was make your existing collection look a bit better. 480i to 480P is a very subtle change.

To get mass market adoption you need two things; low priced players and low priced movies. LD got the price of the players down - but never the movies. IMO - this is why it was always a niche.

If I can walk into Wal-Mart and for $100 buy not only a player but also 23 movies to go with it (as you could have done this past weekend) that is going to be a hard nut to crack.

Many people just want to see the movie - the plot - the acting, etc. You don't need HD to do that.

Unfortunately DVD is good enough.:(

IMO - this is a double edged sword. It is a product of HDM being evolutionary as opposed to revolutionary. The good thing - just buy a player and an HDMI cable and all your DVD's will look better. Unfortunately the bad thing is that now you don't have to buy new HD versions of your existing library - which we are already seeing. One fact we do know - catalog tiles on HDM don't sell. Only brand new movies do.


As time goes on things change. There will be plenty of other reasons to upgrade from a dvd. IME , internet options and better sound options are all reasonable reasons to upgrade a disc.

I have many movies still on vhs. Yes I know but I rarely watch them and to me they are not work the update on dvd. I'm sure others are in the same situation. But now I will upgrade to hd dvd. On the same side there are many dvds I bought early on in the life span of dvd that have had better releases later in its life. However I didn't feel a double dip is warrented. Now with hdm a double dip is warrented as there are more extras and a huge jump in pq and aq

This assumes that HDM is equal to DVD today in all aspects which include $30 players and $3.00 movies. I just don't see this happening because it does not help the CEM's nor the studios to achieve the higher profit margins they are looking to get out of HDM. At least not in 6 years after SI. 10 year? Maybe - probably.



There can be many things that keep hdm player prices high.

For example . In 2010 a hd dvd player that is 1080i with 256 megs of flash in it costs $50. That will sell to many people. You then have a 1080p player with 512 megs of flash. For the top end you have a 1080p player with 1 gig of ram plus expandable ram through flash drives with higher end sound options and picture options at the $300 range.

As for movie prices. Buyers don't seem to mind paying $10 more for xbox 360 games over xbox 1 and ps2 games. I don't see why studios can't make the price for HDM higher than dvd at each point in its life time. At the 10 year mark I can see HDM selling at $7 while a similar dvd was at $3

Also there are other revenue streams that can bring in more money. As i've said before . disney princess line is really popular. I'm sure they would love to be able to stream the newest costumes , book and movies while the little kid is watching enchanted on bluray.

Yes - a definite advantage that has yet to be taken advantage of.


Prices are to high. But if they get them down to $25 then it will start to take off

As time goes on things change. There will be plenty of other reasons to upgrade from a dvd. IME , internet options and better sound options are all reasonable reasons to upgrade a disc.

You are preaching to the choir. ;)

I have many movies still on vhs. Yes I know but I rarely watch them and to me they are not work the update on dvd. I'm sure others are in the same situation. But now I will upgrade to hd dvd. On the same side there are many dvds I bought early on in the life span of dvd that have had better releases later in its life. However I didn't feel a double dip is warrented. Now with hdm a double dip is warrented as there are more extras and a huge jump in pq and aq

What is important to you and I may hold little importance to others. We feel that the Advanced Special Features on HDM is an excellent reason to double dip. Others feel they are nothing more than fluff. Time will tell on this issue how the masses react to them.


There can be many things that keep hdm player prices high.

For example . In 2010 a hd dvd player that is 1080i with 256 megs of flash in it costs $50. That will sell to many people. You then have a 1080p player with 512 megs of flash. For the top end you have a 1080p player with 1 gig of ram plus expandable ram through flash drives with higher end sound options and picture options at the $300 range.

It is been my experience that CEM's will put in "just enough" components to get the job done. HD DVD already has all the memory it needs to accomplish IME and IF. Is there a reason to add more?

BD on the other hand is still sorting their Profile issue out for 1.1 and 2.0. They do have a choice though. They (The CEM's) can decide to include the extra 256MB or 1GB in the player . . . or they can just have 64KB and force the player owner to buy some kind of memory add-on (at his expense) if they want 1.1 or 2.0 (I am referring to the BD SAL's). Not sure how well this will go over with the consumer though.

As for movie prices. Buyers don't seem to mind paying $10 more for xbox 360 games over xbox 1 and ps2 games. I don't see why studios can't make the price for HDM higher than dvd at each point in its life time. At the 10 year mark I can see HDM selling at $7 while a similar dvd was at $3

I am not a gamer so I am on thin ice here - but it is my understanding that games can and are 2X and even 3X the price of a movie. But as I see it - lots of repeat playing. How many times can you watch the same movie? 2X, 3X?

Also there are other revenue streams that can bring in more money. As i've said before . disney princess line is really popular. I'm sure they would love to be able to stream the newest costumes , book and movies while the little kid is watching enchanted on bluray.

Yes - the studios are salivating over IF. It allows them to sell movie merchandise to the public in a different manner - and the public loves to buy movie merchandise so it is a good marriage. Universal calls it U-Shop.

Prices are to high. But if they get them down to $25 then it will start to take off

:D

The bottom line as I said before is that the software is too highly priced. I do believe that there is an opportunity for the studios to make additional profit from HD media, but at the present, they are still gouging with the early adopter tax.

It works like this. :) Who is your target market BD and HD DVD? HD DVD your players say mainstream but your software says early adopter or enthusiast. You are sending mixed messages to your potential customers.

BD, you are selling to the gaming market, while charging almost the same price as a game for the HD movie. Considering that you are targeting gamers mostly with the PS3, wouldn't it make sense that when you price your HDM @ almost the same point as the games themselves, you are going to have a hard time moving HDM?

Both camps need to keep lowering the pricing and adding features. Additionally, they also need to get their software down to an acceptable level and then they have a reasonable shot @ attracting new buyers.

The bottom line as I said before is that the software is too highly priced. I do believe that there is an opportunity for the studios to make additional profit from HD media, but at the present, they are still gouging with the early adopter tax.

It works like this. :) Who is your target market BD and HD DVD? HD DVD your players say mainstream but your software says early adopter or enthusiast. You are sending mixed messages to your potential customers.

BD, you are selling to the gaming market, while charging almost the same price as a game for the HD movie. Considering that you are targeting gamers mostly with the PS3, wouldn't it make sense that when you price your HDM @ almost the same point as the games themselves, you are going to have a hard time moving HDM?

Both camps need to keep lowering the pricing and adding features. Additionally, they also need to get their software down to an acceptable level and then they have a reasonable shot @ attracting new buyers.

OFF POST:

I just found this in Wiki - about the market share that LD had in the USA - wanted to post it as a "fact."

It was estimated that in 1998, laserdisc players were in approximately 2% of US households (roughly two million).[1] By comparison, in 1999, players were in 10% of Japanese households.[2] LD has been completely replaced by DVD in the North American retail marketplace, as neither players nor software are now produced there. Laserdisc has retained some popularity among American collectors and, to a greater degree, in Japan, where the format was better supported and more prevalent during its life. In Europe LD has always remained an obscure format.

ON POST and OT:

I also found this. I would like to discuss this - as being a possible reason why HDM is priced as high as it is. This again comes from Wiki (Laserdisc):

In North America, the cost of the players and discs was kept far higher than VHS decks and tapes (mainly to combat anticipated losses at the box office).

Is history repeating itself?

This issue is HD Movies . . . on disc. We already know that HD "OTA" is picking up speed. Comcast announced they added 900,000 DVR's in Q3 (they give us the DVR count to "inflate" the HD count becuase the CBL and SAT companies are "cagey" about releasing any specific data on HD subscribers.)

No - I do not believe the world will embrace HD movies on disc. Not unless the special features (specifically the IF) really takes off. There just isn't enough of a difference with HDM over DVD.

TIME - THAT is the BIG issue. When you compare the lifespan of the formats - you definitely see the timeframe growing shorter. And this may be the downfall of HDM - not enough time to "get the job done."

As has been pointed out, the 5" disc is here to stay. Perhaps you should consider more the infrastructure costs involved with going to some other format than physical discs, like downloads, OTA, etc. Just like the personal computer, whose death has been forecast for a very long time and yet continues to thrive due to its embedded infrastructure, the 5" disc has an even more embedded infrastructure than the PC (computers, homes, and cars), and cannot be easily replaced.

Another issue that has only been mentioned in passing is the upscaling of SD DVD's. Does anyone think that technology will not continue to improve? What if a DVD could be upscaled to look identical to HD? Does that make it HD? It's already pretty close on smaller displays, so how long before it comes too close to make a difference on any size display?

So in the end, to me, the future looks very bright for our intrepid 5" shiny disc.

Doug

OFF POST:

I just found this in Wiki - about the market share that LD had in the USA - wanted to post it as a "fact."



ON POST and OT:

I also found this. I would like to discuss this - as being a possible reason why HDM is priced as high as it is. This again comes from Wiki (Laserdisc):



Is history repeating itself?

Perhaps it is. However, I believe that its much too early to call or try to predict what customers are going to ultimately do regarding these formats. Granted, they've both had roughly 18 months in the market, but you have so many other factors @ play vs DVDs birth and ultimately rise to the top...

As was stated, the discs aren't going anywhere. The infrastructure is so embedded and the product so readily recognizable by consumers that they just make sense. I really do not consider download or VoD to really be as much of the 800 lb gorilla as you would believe, it needs a lot longer to distinguish itself....

I do believe however, that both of these formats will achieve penetration far beyond what LD had. The players are infinitely cheaper, even the media is relatively affordable, and will continue to become more affordable the longer all of this goes on.

Will it achieve DVD success? probably not, but I do believe it will provide enough additional revenue and income to supplement the lost income that has come about with the decline of DVD.

Give it time, and lets see where we are a year or two from now.

Perhaps it is. However, I believe that its much too early to call or try to predict what customers are going to ultimately do regarding these formats. Granted, they've both had roughly 18 months in the market, but you have so many other factors @ play vs DVDs birth and ultimately rise to the top...

As was stated, the discs aren't going anywhere. The infrastructure is so embedded and the product so readily recognizable by consumers that they just make sense. I really do not consider download or VoD to really be as much of the 800 lb gorilla as you would believe, it needs a lot longer to distinguish itself....

I do believe however, that both of these formats will achieve penetration far beyond what LD had. The players are infinitely cheaper, even the media is relatively affordable, and will continue to become more affordable the longer all of this goes on.

Will it achieve DVD success? probably not, but I do believe it will provide enough additional revenue and income to supplement the lost income that has come about with the decline of DVD.

Give it time, and lets see where we are a year or two from now.

We have already passed LD's penetration because of the PS3. We are now at 3% in 19 months where LD only had 2% over 20 years. So that is a moot point.

And yes - the 5" disc is here to stay for a long time. Next platform is rumored to be the 5" Holographic Disc. Datarius already makes testing equipment for this disc - to see how off - or on spec the pressing is when manufacturing it. Just like they do for DVD, HD DVD and BD.

And DVD had a bucketful of problems in it's first 21 months of life - not all studios supported it. Yet it managed to sell over 750,000 disc in one week - the last week of 1998.

We don't have to wait 2 or 3 years. All we have to wait for is 5 weeks. To see how HDM stacks up against DVD.

And please do not cite the population of HDTV's. By 12/31/07 there will be over 50 million of them - more than enough to entice buyers to HDM.

Sure some might be defensive. But transversely some also might be a bit chicken little'y as well don't ya think?

I do.

No, I don't. Most of us discussing this own either one or both of these HDM players. I own one, but that does not stop me from pondering the notion that we may in fact be looking at a niche product. Nothing particularly chicken about that.

I think that although we can use the history repeating itself line of thought so much has changed.We are going to have great difficulty extrapolating. When LD was set to be released ,it should have gotten to market before Beta prerecorded movies but delays and issues with quality control slowed it. It was not going to be released as a better quality alternative to tape but only by default it was that, it was supposed to be the first time movies could be seen in the home at will. It was better in quality in every way but could not record. LD's long existance was due to it's superior quality, almost entirely, because that is what it had.

We are in such a different time in another way ,as far as catalogue titles, we have reached saturation. Most films have been released,and the majority ,multiple times on the various formats. Many are just not going to rebuy a title they have seen half a dozen times for a better quality picture and or sound alone. In the days of early LD many many times the purchase of a disc was very very special since this would have been the first time we saw it in our homes.

IMO the confluence of factors which included lots of unseen titles,compatibility with all TVs, convenience and low cost resulted in the astronomical DVD success that will not be repeated no matter what. Even I don't want to buy films again because they look good. I have not bought crap films (as much :o ) like I did with DVD. I believe that the masses will be even more selective. This makes comparisons to previous formats very very tenuos at best. Times ,circumstances, the viewing/buying public have changed too much.

My opinion is HDM will take off due to HDTV success and it will ride along with that but will never touch DVDs success due to the reasons expressed previously it will plateau as current titles are released day and date but never be a huge cash cow to resell the studios catalogue all over again except for the hardcore buffs like us. This will only result in a success in relative terms more like LD.It will then die out due to films coming on Microsoft et al servers as downloads a few years from now.

Art

One fact we do know - catalog tiles on HDM don't sell. Only brand new movies do.

Will it achieve DVD success? probably not, but I do believe it will provide enough additional revenue and income to supplement the lost income that has come about with the decline of DVD.

And DVD had a bucketful of problems in it's first 21 months of life - not all studios supported it. Yet it managed to sell over 750,000 disc in one week - the last week of 1998.

We don't have to wait 2 or 3 years. All we have to wait for is 5 weeks. To see how HDM stacks up against DVD.

Piecing together these quotes really illustrates where HDM is at, and where it's going. I'm asserting that:

1. HDM will replace DVD to a large extent. It's inevitable. At some point within the next 5 years or so, the majority of new movies will be released on HDM and not DVD. You will only be able to buy HDM players, DVD players will be relics. This will happen because as the hardware cost of HDM players comes down they will become the no-brainer purchase (just like you can no longer buy a large TV that isn't an HDTV). As the market becomes saturated with HDM players, the studios will shift new releases to that media and shun the ever shrinking DVD market in the process. The rental market will be a driving force in this shift.

2. HDM is not the cash cow Hollywood is hoping for. It never will be. Because HDM is an evolution, and not a revolution like DVD, consumers will not be re-purchasing movies yet again. We see this trend already - catalog titles on HDM simply don't sell, new releases do. The backward compatibility of HDM combined with the adequate quality of DVD means there is absolutely no incentive to replace already purchased DVDs with HDM copies. Consumers are also already conditioned at certain price levels, and part of HDM's relatively soft media sales are the result of being priced above those levels. When the shift from DVD to HDM happens, the HDM prices will have fallen to DVD levels.

3. If HDM has not unified under a single format within the next 12 months or so, it will never happen. Because HD and BD share the same form factor and DF players are not materially more expensive than BD players, it's only a matter of time before DF becomes the de facto standard and are sold inexpensively. Once that happens the format war ceases to be relevant.

4. The hardware aspect of DVD will die soon, but as a format it will continue to exist for a long time. I expect we'll continue to see catalog titles on DVD long after new releases stopped shipping in that format. The payoff in shifting from DVD to HDM isn't there for the consumer or for Hollywood.

We don't need to wait 5 weeks to see if HDM can duplicate DVD's end of 98 sales feat, moving 750,000 copies in a week. We already know it won't happen.

Good post Double Jack.

But you didn't mention the competition that HDM is facing at all.

HD is not only available on HDM. It is available from:

1. OTA
2. CBL
3. SAT
4. DNL

And within CBL and SAT is VOD and PPV. Plus more HD channels are coming online every month.

The 5" disc has been used to satisfy two markets:

1. Those that want to own the program - sales
2. Those that just want to see the program - rentals

We already know that sales are down and rentals are up. 3 years is plenty of data to prove this point.

And no reference to the sorry state of the economy.

Black Friday was a success . . . . sort of. Sales were up over last year . . . more people went shopping than last year . . . but they each spent less money than last year.

If the consumer is belt tightening - that means making do with what you already have. Not spending extra. Which goes first? The HDM player he wanted to buy? Or cutting his CBL/SAT bill to the bare minimum programming level?

Many are just not going to rebuy a title they have seen half a dozen times for a better quality picture and or sound alone. In the days of early LD many many times the purchase of a disc was very very special since this would have been the first time we saw it in our homes.

IMO the confluence of factors which included lots of unseen titles,compatibility with all TVs, convenience and low cost resulted in the astronomical DVD success that will not be repeated no matter what. Even I don't want to buy films again because they look good. I have not bought crap films (as much :o ) like I did with DVD. I believe that the masses will be even more selective. This makes comparisons to previous formats very very tenuos at best. Times ,circumstances, the viewing/buying public have changed too much.

My opinion is HDM will take off due to HDTV success and it will ride along with that but will never touch DVDs success due to the reasons expressed previously it will plateau as current titles are released day and date but never be a huge cash cow to resell the studios catalogue all over again except for the hardcore buffs like us. This will only result in a success in relative terms more like LD.It will then die out due to films coming on Microsoft et al servers as downloads a few years from now.

Art

Fool me once shame on you...

Well said, Art.

Like many others here, I bought far too many DVD's in the early years (1997-2002) on impulse, before reading reviews, always expecting a superb transfer, and not really thinking about re-watch value.

A lot of us have now "grown up" and are more mature HT enthusiasts, gaining patience and restraint in the process.

I agree that all the HDM business interests had better not expect a repeat of the DVD launch/market growth numbers. DVD was in many ways a "Perfect Storm", a confluence of factors that Art articulated so well.

re: downloadable media-

DL/streaming media will have its place, but IMO, will never replace physical media. The reasons include DRM, the ability to transfer the media you buy to other formats/devices, playing in a car or in a battery operated disc player, the right of resale, etc.

Excellent point about the competition HDM is facing, Lee. My counter argument is that the large number of DVDs already in circulation will keep HDM around and in demand. People need a player for all of their 5" discs. DVD players do eventually need to be replaced, and when they do an HDM player will take their spot. So even if consumer spending on physical media continues to decline, there is a built in minimum demand level. I also think consumers will continue to favor physical discs and actual ownership to digital downloads. IMO the rental market could shift entirely to VOD, but we're a long way from the retail market going far in that direction.

In short, this is just further evidence that HDM is not and never will be the salvation Hollywood wants / needs. But it will still replace DVD and inherit whatever market DVD leaves behind.

Excellent point about the competition HDM is facing, Lee. My counter argument is that the large number of DVDs already in circulation will keep HDM around and in demand. People need a player for all of their 5" discs. DVD players do eventually need to be replaced, and when they do an HDM player will take their spot. So even if consumer spending on physical media continues to decline, there is a built in minimum demand level. I also think consumers will continue to favor physical discs and actual ownership to digital downloads. IMO the rental market could shift entirely to VOD, but we're a long way from the retail market going far in that direction.

In short, this is just further evidence that HDM is not and never will be the salvation Hollywood wants / needs. But it will still replace DVD and inherit whatever market DVD leaves behind.

:D - we keep moving the chess pieces around the board but only a few pawns are leaving the game.

We have already seen a shift in casual audio - from media based to medialess based. To say; "that can't happen to video" would be myopic IMO.

We know why and when DVD exploded. We know why HDM is not going to explode like DVD did.

So in reading your post and comparing it to my OP Post #1 - you do agree that history IS repeating itself. We will have a dominant market - DVD and a much smaller market - HDM. And though DVD sales are declining - that doesn't mean they will go the way of VHS.

The only way for HDM to be more than LD Part 2 is either the Special Features become a "have to have" or the pricing of the movies has to be at DVD level. NOT $19.99 but $2.98, $5.00 and $7.50.

Because as long as there exists a cheaper option - that is what the masses will gravitate to. Always have. Always will.

:D - we keep moving the chess pieces around the board but only a few pawns are leaving the game.

We have already seen a shift in casual audio - from media based to medialess based. To say; "that can't happen to video" would be myopic IMO.

We know why and when DVD exploded. We know why HDM is not going to explode like DVD did.

So in reading your post and comparing it to my OP Post #1 - you do agree that history IS repeating itself. We will have a dominant market - DVD and a much smaller market - HDM. And though DVD sales are declining - that doesn't mean they will go the way of VHS.

The only way for HDM to be more than LD Part 2 is either the Special Features become a "have to have" or the pricing of the movies has to be at DVD level. NOT $19.99 but $2.98, $5.00 and $7.50.

Because as long as there exists a cheaper option - that is what the masses will gravitate to. Always have. Always will.

Not to get sidetracked, but I don't think it's myopic to say that what happened to audio won't happen soon to video. In the long run I do agree video will go medialess. I just believe we're many years, or at least one generation, from that reality. The kids of today are growing up with medialess audio and medialess games, so for them it's not a big leap to medialess video. And for many years it has been the youth that dominates the audio market (just check out the Billboard top 100 ;)) The demographic that drives the video market is different, older and with more disposable income. Physical media is still important for that demographic. There are also other reasons, particularly cost and size, which work in favor of medialess audio. The infrastructure to support medialess video is just not in place at this time, and it won't be in the near future.

Anyway, what I see happening is not LD Part 2. I see a hybrid future. HDM will be universally adopted and completely replace DVD for new releases just like DVD replaced VHS, and those new releases will sell for approximate DVD pricing (say <= $25). However, DVD will continue to exist as a legacy format for catalog titles, and the bargain bin $3 and $5 discs will be on DVD.

Not to get sidetracked, but I don't think it's myopic to say that what happened to audio won't happen soon to video. In the long run I do agree video will go medialess. I just believe we're many years, or at least one generation, from that reality. The kids of today are growing up with medialess audio and medialess games, so for them it's not a big leap to medialess video. And for many years it has been the youth that dominates the audio market (just check out the Billboard top 100 ;)) The demographic that drives the video market is different, older and with more disposable income. Physical media is still important for that demographic. There are also other reasons, particularly cost and size, which work in favor of medialess audio. The infrastructure to support medialess video is just not in place at this time, and it won't be in the near future.

Anyway, what I see happening is not LD Part 2. I see a hybrid future. HDM will be universally adopted and completely replace DVD for new releases just like DVD replaced VHS, and those new releases will sell for approximate DVD pricing (say <= $25). However, DVD will continue to exist as a legacy format for catalog titles, and the bargain bin $3 and $5 discs will be on DVD.

We have had two interesting announcements in the last week:

1. FIOS is now offerring 50 Mega Bit Internet Speed (and 25MB) in the Tri State Area.(NY, NJ, CT)

2. Comcast is ready to offer Switched Digital Video for TIVO HD STB's.

We already know what HDM can deliver. We have read the specs and see that neither can accomodate Deep Color. Nor xvYCC for that matter.

One of the unknowns is 3D. Depends on the next 18 months and how the public accepts 3D. I have my hopes up . . . . but . . . . :(

I don't accept your speculation that DVD is going away. Too entrenched IMO. According to the CEA - more households have DVD then have the Internet. (82% vs. 78%)

So in 5 years, if HDM has 20% of the market. Is that a niche?

Not to get sidetracked, but I don't think it's myopic to say that what happened to audio won't happen soon to video. In the long run I do agree video will go medialess. I just believe we're many years, or at least one generation, from that reality. The kids of today are growing up with medialess audio and medialess games, so for them it's not a big leap to medialess video. And for many years it has been the youth that dominates the audio market (just check out the Billboard top 100 ;)) The demographic that drives the video market is different, older and with more disposable income. Physical media is still important for that demographic. There are also other reasons, particularly cost and size, which work in favor of medialess audio. The infrastructure to support medialess video is just not in place at this time, and it won't be in the near future.

Anyway, what I see happening is not LD Part 2. I see a hybrid future. HDM will be universally adopted and completely replace DVD for new releases just like DVD replaced VHS, and those new releases will sell for approximate DVD pricing (say <= $25). However, DVD will continue to exist as a legacy format for catalog titles, and the bargain bin $3 and $5 discs will be on DVD.


+1

We have had two interesting announcements in the last week:

1. FIOS is now offerring 50 Mega Bit Internet Speed (and 25MB) in the Tri State Area.(NY, NJ, CT)

2. Comcast is ready to offer Switched Digital Video for TIVO HD STB's.

We already know what HDM can deliver. We have read the specs and see that neither can accomodate Deep Color. Nor xvYCC for that matter.

One of the unknowns is 3D. Depends on the next 18 months and how the public accepts 3D. I have my hopes up . . . . but . . . . :(

I don't accept your speculation that DVD is going away. Too entrenched IMO. According to the CEA - more households have DVD then have the Internet. (82% vs. 78%)

So in 5 years, if HDM has 20% of the market. Is that a niche?

Those are interesting announcements, and the infrastructure is headed in the right direction to support HD VOD. But it still has a lot of growing to do before it's truly ready for the masses. There are still a good number of US citizens that can't get DSL or Cable internet access, let alone service I would call high speed.

As for my speculation about the death of DVD, let me clarify that I mean DVD players will soon disappear. It's going to happen. Consumers won't even have a choice, just like with the TV market. You want to buy a family room sized TV, guess what? It's an HDTV, because you can't find a large SDTV anymore (I just did a quick search and could not find new SDTVs any larger than 32").

We've already seen HD players hit $100, and $200 is practically the regular every day price for entry level players now. When prices get down to $75, or $50, then SD-DVD hardware starts to go bye-bye. We just won't be able to buy them anymore. How long this process takes is a matter of conjecture, but that it will happen is a certainty IMO. DVD has evolved into HDM and the cat isn't going back into the bag.

Once HDM hardware becomes the only choice to purchase then Americans will gradually adopt HDM without necessarily wanting to, just like they're adopting HDTV. The hardware will come before the content for many consumers. At some point the market penetration will be great enough to reach critical mass and we will see widespread new releases on HDM. It won't happen overnight, but the transition from DVD to HDM will occur. Once HDTVs and HDM players are in the majority of homes it must happen, it would not make any sense for DVD to continue as the standard.

But DVD media won't die like the hardware. Backward compatibility and the large installed base you point out will prevent that. People will adopt HDM and start to purchase in that format, but they won't throw out their DVDs like they did with their VHS tapes.

Before I can answer your last question, what market are we talking about? Do you mean that HDM accounts for 20% of disc sales in 5 years? Or HDM players account for 20% of DVD player sales in 5 years? Need more info :)

Those are interesting announcements, and the infrastructure is headed in the right direction to support HD VOD. But it still has a lot of growing to do before it's truly ready for the masses. There are still a good number of US citizens that can't get DSL or Cable internet access, let alone service I would call high speed.

As for my speculation about the death of DVD, let me clarify that I mean DVD players will soon disappear. It's going to happen. Consumers won't even have a choice, just like with the TV market. You want to buy a family room sized TV, guess what? It's an HDTV, because you can't find a large SDTV anymore (I just did a quick search and could not find new SDTVs any larger than 32").

HDTV's are enjoying the Govt. Mandate to go all digital by 2/09.

Economies of scale - only make one type of TV - CRT's are dead with the exception of 20" and smaller and even LCD is replacing those.

NOTE: Look at all the 5" battery operated TV's that will in one single day - 2/19/09 - be totally worthless. I own two - 1 Color and 1 B&W.

We've already seen HD players hit $100, and $200 is practically the regular every day price for entry level players now. When prices get down to $75, or $50, then SD-DVD hardware starts to go bye-bye. We just won't be able to buy them anymore. How long this process takes is a matter of conjecture, but that it will happen is a certainty IMO. DVD has evolved into HDM and the cat isn't going back into the bag.

The problem is that you are quoting HD DVD player prices. BD is not giving up.

Once HDM hardware becomes the only choice to purchase then Americans will gradually adopt HDM without necessarily wanting to, just like they're adopting HDTV. The hardware will come before the content for many consumers. At some point the market penetration will be great enough to reach critical mass and we will see widespread new releases on HDM. It won't happen overnight, but the transition from DVD to HDM will occur. Once HDTVs and HDM players are in the majority of homes it must happen, it would not make any sense for DVD to continue as the standard.

If HDM players hit a normal price of $75 - do you think people will not look at $25 priced DVD players?

But DVD media won't die like the hardware. Backward compatibility and the large installed base you point out will prevent that. People will adopt HDM and start to purchase in that format, but they won't throw out their DVDs like they did with their VHS tapes.

Agreed

Before I can answer your last question, what market are we talking about? Do you mean that HDM accounts for 20% of disc sales in 5 years? Or HDM players account for 20% of DVD player sales in 5 years? Need more info :)

20% of optical disc revenue - combo of sales and rentals

HDTV's are enjoying the Govt. Mandate to go all digital by 2/09.

Economies of scale - only make one type of TV - CRT's are dead with the exception of 20" and smaller and even LCD is replacing those.

NOTE: Look at all the 5" battery operated TV's that will in one single day - 2/19/09 - be totally worthless. I own two - 1 Color and 1 B&W.

There is some truth to this. However, digital tuners can (and do) come with SDTVs. People want HD. It's a buzzword. Even without the mandate, HDTV sales would be dwarfing SDTV sales in mid market up. If someone is in the market for a new $1,000 TV and it costs little to nothing more for an HDTV vs. a SDTV, they will buy the HDTV almost every time.

If there were demand for 42"+ projection SDTVs with digital tuners we would see them in stores. We don't. Take price out of the equation and quality becomes the deciding factor. This will happen with HDM vs DVD at some point when the price gap narrows to a negligible amount.

The problem is that you are quoting HD DVD player prices. BD is not giving up.

Well, if HD-DVD players remain so much less expensive than BD I have a feeling most people will end up with HD. But what I really think will happen is that BD and DF format players will follow HD and all will quickly drop in price. It's back to your economies of scale point.

If HDM players hit a normal price of $75 - do you think people will not look at $25 priced DVD players?

They will look still at such cheap DVD players, but are also likely to give the HDM player more serious consideration with only a $50 price gap. Most importantly a $75 HDM player would be a strong disincentive to buy a $75 DVD player, or even a $50 DVD player. At $75 HDM players would capture substantial market share. If it costs almost the same as a DVD player and can also play DVDs, people will buy them.


20% of optical disc revenue - combo of sales and rentals

I would likely consider that an emerging market. It's possible that in the next 5 years we will see HDM players find their way into 40% or 50% or even 60% of homes, with HDM content lagging behind at the 20% mark. That would sort of mirror what we're seeing with HDTV. But if HDM hardware is only in 20% of homes in 5 years then it would appear to be a niche market to me.

There is some truth to this. However, digital tuners can (and do) come with SDTVs. People want HD. It's a buzzword. Even without the mandate, HDTV sales would be dwarfing SDTV sales in mid market up. If someone is in the market for a new $1,000 TV and it costs little to nothing more for an HDTV vs. a SDTV, they will buy the HDTV almost every time.

People don't want HD - they want hang on the wall TV's that just happen to be called HDTV.

If there were demand for 42"+ projection SDTVs with digital tuners we would see them in stores. We don't. Take price out of the equation and quality becomes the deciding factor. This will happen with HDM vs DVD at some point when the price gap narrows to a negligible amount.

At one point - the TV CEM's decided no more NTSC TV's. They decided for us. We had no say in this decision. We didn't vote with our wallet. "here it is - take it or leave it" was the choice.

:D - How many people complain about the quality of SD on an HDTV?


Well, if HD-DVD players remain so much less expensive than BD I have a feeling most people will end up with HD. But what I really think will happen is that BD and DF format players will follow HD and all will quickly drop in price. It's back to your economies of scale point.

These are good speculations. Unfortunately we are in a VERY dynamic marketplace. Foresight is VERY difficult to see. Things can and do change in an instant. We have seen this a few times already


They will look still at such cheap DVD players, but are also likely to give the HDM player more serious consideration with only a $50 price gap. Most importantly a $75 HDM player would be a strong disincentive to buy a $75 DVD player, or even a $50 DVD player. At $75 HDM players would capture substantial market share. If it costs almost the same as a DVD player and can also play DVDs, people will buy them.

So what about the movies? Speculate that an HD movie is priced $5.00 more than a DVD.

I would likely consider that an emerging market. It's possible that in the next 5 years we will see HDM players find their way into 40% or 50% or even 60% of homes, with HDM content lagging behind at the 20% mark. That would sort of mirror what we're seeing with HDTV. But if HDM hardware is only in 20% of homes in 5 years then it would appear to be a niche market to me.

In our society? At the rate it is changing with regards to technology? Remember 5 years out makes HDM 7 years old. The most successful format in history peaked 8 years after SI and is now 10 years old - on the decline.

20% revenue would be a real success IMO for HDM. 20% of all households would as you said - guarantee it not only niche status but a failure.