I found this article linked from slashdot: http://techdirt.com/articles/20071120/015521.shtml

Basically, Amazon has a patent to adjust the order ship date either favorably or unfavorably based on projected future orders & profits from them.

Many times on release dates, people start threads asking "Has your copy of xyz shipped from amazon yet?" It always has been a bit of a mystery as to why one preorder ships before another, whether or not they use prime or how far in advance they place their order.

I don't think that this explains everything, but it is one more item to consider about how the innards of Amazon work.

Given the large number of DVDs and HD-DVDs I order from Amazon, coupled with how frequently the pre-orders ship late, I have to assume that this system is not working as Amazon intends...

I dunno.... there have been times when I get my stuff from them quickly and then there have been times when I have cancelled orders(Kubrick stuff) on new releases because they were soooooo damned slow at getting the movies out to me.

No idea what their "system" is, but they do have great pricing 99% of the time when compared to any brick and mortar store locally.

Their international shipping is what sucks. Been waiting for 2 hd dvds for a month now. It doesn't take that long to cross the atlantic. But i always get them eventually.

hmmm...

i don't buy a lot from amazon, but when it's listed as available, i click on it and it shows up within 2 days...

maybe there is something to this, but there's probably a bunch of other factors at work too...

Given the large number of DVDs and HD-DVDs I order from Amazon, coupled with how frequently the pre-orders ship late, I have to assume that this system is not working as Amazon intends...

Or maybe it is. If they have flagged you as a loyal customer who will probably just suck it up and keep ordering if they ship you something late, then maybe its working exactly as designed.

But if you immediately cancel you order once it ships late and buy it locally or from another on-line site, then maybe they're realize that and shape up.

Notice that one of the reasons you can give automatically when you cancel an order is "Would not arrive on time". Makes you wonder, maybe they are not rewarding loyalty but punishing it just a bit.

Wouldn't be the first time, Netflix did something vaugely similar.

This could be a way to favor Prime customers, just a guess.

I'm a Prime member. The membership seems to have had no impact on whether titles ship late or on-time.

Ordered Bourne, Blade R, BattleStar , Ship 17 Dec, 23 Dec, 9 Dec, about a week after release. When asked I expect shipment on day of release, response=Greetings from Amazon.com.

I'm sorry for all the misunderstanding this issue has caused you.

I've checked the availability for "Blade Runner (Five-Disc Complete Collector's Edition) [HD DVD] (2007)" and see that it's listed on our web site as "not yet released." According to the latest information we've received, this item is scheduled for release on December 18, 2007.

And I also see that "The Bourne Ultimatum [HD DVD] (2007)" not yet released and according to latest information we've received, this item is scheduled for release on December 11, 2007.

We are ready to ship it to you once it's been released and we've received inventory.

We don't charge you for an order until it enters the shipping process, so you won't be charged for this item until it's available and we've shipped it to you.

I've listed more information below that may be helpful.

Thanks for shopping at Amazon.com.

What I don't like is the artificially high MSRP titles at $39.95. This allows Amazon to claim 30% off but the actual price is only slightly less than buying it locally at the store. It's all just a false savings ploy to sucker customers into paying higher overall prices.

I'm in Canada in a town called Oakville near Toronto. I ordered 4 HDDVDs from Amazon.com, so they ship them out of a city called Mississauga (where they have a warehouse), right next to Oakville (literally 20km away).

It took a month to get my HDDVDs.

Amazon could just stop shipping everything one-per-box!

Honestly, I'm amazon Prime. I spend over $2k per month with buisness and personal purchases. My pre-release orders always ship on the release day. I wish they would ship so I receive the item on release day, but they don't. Overall, I'm happy with Amazon Pre-order. Especially since I'm 2 hours from a best buy or circuit city and wal-mart carries a VERY limited selection in the purple department.

AlbertZeroK.

+1

When Amazon had their B2G1 free sale on HDM a few months back, I placed three seperate orders of three titles. Even though all titles showed as in stock when I placed my order, and continued to show as such after I ordered, it took 2 weeks before they were even shipped. It was almost three before I received them. Ten days ago, on 11/16 I ordered M*A*S*H - Martinis and Medicine Complete Collection. As of today, 11/26, this is what I see on my order page:

Items not yet shipped:
Shipping estimate: November 27, 2007 - December 11, 2007

* 1 of: M*A*S*H - Martinis and Medicine Complete Collection
Sold by: Amazon.com, LLC

So at the earliest it won't ship for 11 days after I ordered, at possibly not until almost a MONTH after I ordered. It's very likely it won't be on my doorstep earlier than a month. I used to order a ton from Amazon and it always arrived within a couple of days. This is several orders in a row that have taken weeks to even be shipped. I called Amazon and the girl told me that it's because the free super saver shipped goes out by the truckload and they must be waiting on a full truck. I don't really buy that, because it shouldn't take a company like Amazon two weeks to fill a truck, especially during this season. I see no reason to not shop at DeepDiscount where the prices are similar, sometimes better, and theres free USPS shipping that only takes a few days to get to me.

The only thing about DeepDiscount I don't like is that they are a little more difficult to cancel an order with.

What I don't like is the artificially high MSRP titles at $39.95.

That *is* the MSRP. So your complaint should be with the studios, not w/Amazon.

This allows Amazon to claim 30% off but the actual price is only slightly less than buying it locally at the store.

Just because a local store has it for 25% off, doesn't change the fact that Amazon has it for 30% off. The math still works out.

(And, believe me, there *are* stores out there that stock these titles for the full $39.95 price.)

It's all just a false savings ploy to sucker customers into paying higher overall prices.

I'm not following your logic here. You've admitted above that Amazon's price is "slightly less than buying it locally". So how is this a "false savings ploy" to sucker you into paying higher prices. Aren't you paying less?


I'm not understanding your point at all.

What I don't like is the artificially high MSRP titles at $39.95. This allows Amazon to claim 30% off but the actual price is only slightly less than buying it locally at the store. It's all just a false savings ploy to sucker customers into paying higher overall prices.
With the exception of BOGO sales, Amazon's prices are always lower than my local stores-significantly so. Plus free shipping and no sales tax.
J

EDIT: With the exception of distribution problems at the source, I always get my amazon orders quickly-no more than two days, frequently one.

Amazon has really been slipping the past few months in my experience.

Once my Prime membership runs out my 10% HDM discount will be gone. I will then resume buying locally.

I'm a Prime member. The membership seems to have had no impact on whether titles ship late or on-time.

Yes, that has been my experience as well. I pre-order as soon as titles become available, and only once have I received a title the day it is released.

I don't think I'm going to re-purchase my Prime membership in January. With the extra 10% savings (for those of us who bought 3 HDM titles early on) going away on 12/31, I don't see the advantage anymore. Overnight shipping is $3.99/title, which after the 10% discount made it about $1.50. But I still wasn't getting titles until 1-2 days after release. When it comes down to it, I can purchase just about everything (with the exception of box sets) as cheaply from Fry's or Wal Mart than I can at Amazon.com, even after tax. Since HDM is the bulk of what I buy there, there is no reason to keep up my prime membership anymore.

My experiences with Amazon have been excellent. I get most HD titles the release date and the prices are better than virtually all B&M, with the possible exception of Fry's and I have to pay CA sales tax there. I have not noticed any slipping in recent months. I am a Prime member.

If you are taking recent Warner HDM releases into your overall evaluation of Amazon's performance, you could well be doing Amazon a disservice.. Warner has just royalli scewed their recent HDM shipments especially the HD DVD ones, even more especially the Kubrick titles.

That *is* the MSRP. So your complaint should be with the studios, not w/Amazon.



Just because a local store has it for 25% off, doesn't change the fact that Amazon has it for 30% off. The math still works out.

(And, believe me, there *are* stores out there that stock these titles for the full $39.95 price.)

I'm not following your logic here. You've admitted above that Amazon's price is "slightly less than buying it locally". So how is this a "false savings ploy" to sucker you into paying higher prices. Aren't you paying less?

I'm not understanding your point at all.
My complaint is against the obscene MSRP of $40 and the new and higher street price of $30.
In this age of instant gratification there is not much incentive to buy these titles from Amazon at $28 vs. $30 at Best Buy.
Both prices are of poor value especially compared to same SD release. How will either high definition format ever catch on with the general public with these greedy tactics? Imagine if neither format were to win? :(
Price is king especially with our nasty recession. HD discs may be nice, or a luxury but certainly not a necessity.

If you are taking recent Warner HDM releases into your overall evaluation of Amazon's performance, you could well be doing Amazon a disservice.. Warner has just royalli scewed their recent HDM shipments especially the HD DVD ones, even more especially the Kubrick titles.

I have not ordered a single Warner title, save the Harry Potter box set pre-order, which has not been delivered.

Price is king especially with our nasty recession. HD discs may be nice, or a luxury but certainly not a necessity.

What country do you live in that's having a nasty recession?

And, yes, HD discs are not a necessity. Never will be... even when/if they drop down to $10 each.

I always opt for the Free Shipping. It's estimated at 5-9 days, but I think the longest it has taken is about 4. Never had a problem with Amazon!

I'm in Canada in a town called Oakville near Toronto. I ordered 4 HDDVDs from Amazon.com, so they ship them out of a city called Mississauga (where they have a warehouse), right next to Oakville (literally 20km away).

It took a month to get my HDDVDs.

Sounds like a customs issue, not an Amazon issue.

Well that application AFAIK was from 2001

From that linkI used to work at Amazon, in fact I was responsible for a lot of the algorithms used in Amazon's logistics network in use today. I've read a lot of FUD about Amazon order fulfillment so I have to try to add some facts to these discussions.

Amazon's order fulfillment process is insanely complex and involves hundreds of different variables which impact customer satisfaction and costs. Since keeping costs (and thus prices) as low as possible is also a major factor of customer satisfaction, it's important to understand that the underlying principle for all of the algorithms used is to maximize the customer experience. But that's very complicated. Without disclosing any trade secrets, here are a few of the types of parameters which go into the order fulfillment decisions:

* What has the customer paid for? If they've paid for next-day delivery, Amazon assumes they want their order as quickly as possible. Likewise, if they've chosen super-saver free shipping, they assume it's not needed that quickly.

* Where is the inventory? Amazon has many distribution centers scattered across the U.S.A. and not all items are available at each center. It obviously costs less to quickly get an item to a customer from a nearby warehouse. But it might be necessary to ship from further away.

* Are inventory levels as low as possible? To maximize cash flow and utilization of its warehouse space, Amazon is very aggressive about managing its inventory levels. This may mean that rarely ordered items are not kept in inventory and may require time to source from a supplier. It also means that Amazon tries to move inventory out to customers as quickly as possible. Usually, delaying shipments has inventory costs. Believe me, Amazon has no desire to own inventory one minute more than it has to.

* Where is there space for inventory? Related to the above point, space can get very very tight in the Amazon warehouses, especially before the holidays. They just may not have room for dozens of 60" plasma TVs in every distribution center.

* Does the item need to be ordered from a distributor or manufacturer? If an item is not in Amazon's inventory it may already be on order and due on a future date supplied by the source or it may need to be ordered. Obviously it's cheaper to buy large volumes directly from a manufacturer, but those items may not be available quickly. If a customer has paid for next-day delivery though, Amazon will pay to get that item to them.

* Which distribution center has enough people working today? To help keep employees happy, Amazon tries to smooth work loads. Employees prefer to know when and how many hours they will be working next week. When there are high volumes of orders, this may mean delaying some low-priority orders.

* Which distribution center has capacity in their automated systems? It's much cheaper to fulfill an order using Amazon's automated facilities than to do it using manual labor. But only so many orders can go through these automated systems a day. Orders may be routed to a different fulfillment center, or delayed to minimize the handling costs.

* Are there any automated fulfillment lines? For big ticket items (think new Harry Potter book) Amazon will often dedicate mechanized packaging and shipping hardware to just that product. It may be much cheaper to wait a couple days until one of these mechanized production lines is in place before fulfilling an order.

* Which shipping company is cheapest? Amazon utilizes just about every common carrier in the U.S. and can even use them together to minimize shipping costs and reduce delivery times. These rates change regularly and service levels can vary from day to day. It may cost 50% less to get a non-next day order to a customer by waiting a day or two before shipping it.

* Do the shipping companies have capacity? Many of Amazon's distribution centers are in low-cost rural areas. It's not uncommon for Amazon to max-out the capacity of UPS, DHL, USPS, FedEx, or other shipping companies from one of these centers. If that happens, an order for New York City may end up coming from Nevada rather than near-by Pennsylvania.

* How quickly can Amazon be paid for an order? Legally, Amazon can't charge you for an order until that order has shipped. To maximize cash flow, Amazon normally tries to get orders out as quickly as possible so they can be paid as quickly as possible.

* How good of a customer is this? And yes, if you're a good customer, Amazon will spend more to keep you happy. In extreme cases, I've seen Amazon send employees to local Walmarts or other retailers to buy an item which is then couriered to a great customer. Believe me, this isn't cheap. This cost and effort doesn't go into a first-time buyer's Super Saver order.

These are just a handful of the types of decisions which have to be made for every order. During peak periods Amazon handles over a million orders a day; trying to balance and optimize all of these constantly changing variables is a difficult job but I believe the company does a pretty good job of it. And yes, I believe there is intellectual property in the software created by Amazon to make this happen.

In general, I think Amazon's customer service is great. But when I hear that some individual customer service rep, who is probably sitting in West Virginia or India and has never seen the algorithms used for fulfillment or even been to one of Amazon's fulfillment centers explains how free shipping works, I just have to giggle. They really have no idea.

For the record, I use Amazon a lot for HD DVDs and I personnally have been pretty impressed with the fufillment time.

I always opt for the Free Shipping. It's estimated at 5-9 days, but I think the longest it has taken is about 4. Never had a problem with Amazon! Free shipping for me for all A/V products has always been much faster than estimated.

I found this article linked from slashdot: http://techdirt.com/articles/20071120/015521.shtml

Basically, Amazon has a patent to adjust the order ship date either favorably or unfavorably based on projected future orders & profits from them.

Many times on release dates, people start threads asking "Has your copy of xyz shipped from amazon yet?" It always has been a bit of a mystery as to why one preorder ships before another, whether or not they use prime or how far in advance they place their order.

I don't think that this explains everything, but it is one more item to consider about how the innards of Amazon work. Basically, Amazon has a patent to adjust the order ship date either favorably or unfavorably based on projected future orders & profits from them The way I read it was its for a dynamic way of more accurately calculating out expected shipping dates at the time of purchase.

My eyes glazed over in the tech and legalese but what I got out of that application was that theirs was a way to more accurately calculate an actual more accurate expected delivery date when the customer was placing the order using that set of systems.

So instead of generic time frames an more realistic shipping time could be displayed.

Don't see a lot of talk of customer throttling like Netflix does with its basic customers.

So customer expectations would be more accurately met and customers are happy and Amazon saves money and makes more profit.

But most of this is probably moot for HD DVD and Blu-ray software as they don't actually take up that much inventory space and are relatively easy to ship and the number of titles are limited.

Hardware might be another story, although popular items would tend to be stocked more at the distribution centers.

I always opt for the Free Shipping. It's estimated at 5-9 days, but I think the longest it has taken is about 4. Never had a problem with Amazon!

Same with me. I placed two different orders, each with several HD DVDs. and used free shipping. Both orders were shipped within 24 hours.

I almost always get my stuff from Amazon before there estimated dates.

What country do you live in that's having a nasty recession?

The country were each citizen owes $30,000 in national debt. :mad:

The country were each citizen owes $30,000 in national debt. :mad:

Is this a guessing game? If you're talking about the U.S., we're not in a "nasty recession". We're not in a recession at all. National debt doesn't = recession.

In fact, from 1970 to 1983, the U.S. went through 4 recessions. In the 24 years since, we've only had two. And the most recent (right around 9/11) was pretty darn mild.

Consumer spending on Black Friday was up 8% over last year. There may very well be a recession later in 2008, but we're not there yet. We're still seeing growth.

If you're personally struggling with price tags on luxury items, that's understandable. But lets not exagerrate the economics. This is AVS, we're smarter than that.

Sounds like a customs issue, not an Amazon issue.

No, they don't cross customs. They come from about 20km away.

There may very well be a recession later in 2008, but we're not there yet. We're still seeing growth.
So we basically agree.

They difference is I don't need to wait for a bean counter to tell me how bad things are economically. Some things are self evident especially to those who follow the world markets. The government has a bad habit of revising its statistics retroactively. For the last recession they announced almost a year later that we were in one. Gotta love the Spin. Now they go doing it again. :)

These are very turbulent times in countless ways. We have the greatest housing depression since the Great Depression. Combine that with energy and food costs going through the roof.

The result is consumers are being very selective in their purchases. This is why Black Friday sales were up so much because the electronics they bought were so heavily discounted. The shallow American press ignores this fact. PS3 sales tripled but only because its price dropped from $600 to $400. (Poor Sony!)
Now we need $20 HD discs releases for the format(s) to be successful. Otherwise consumers will stick to the cheaper SD discs for the reasons outlined above. For further information see the hi-rez SACD and DVD-audio disc formats.

So we basically agree.

No, we don't. You say we're *currently* in a "nasty recession". I say that we *may* see a recession in 2008 due to lack of growth, but nothing is certain.

A recession isn't something that's a matter of opinion. It has a pretty clear definition... and we're not there.

These are very turbulent times in countless ways. We have the greatest housing depression since the Great Depression. Combine that with energy and food costs going through the roof.

And yet, as you point out, PS3 sales tripled at $400 a pop. Methinks that you're buying into the media's economic doom-and-gloom a bit too much.

No, we don't. You say we're *currently* in a "nasty recession". I say that we *may* see a recession in 2008 due to lack of growth, but nothing is certain.
A recession isn't something that's a matter of opinion. It has a pretty clear definition... and we're not there.
And yet, as you point out, PS3 sales tripled at $400 a pop. Methinks that you're buying into the media's economic doom-and-gloom a bit too much.
You should go buy a house then. Or American stocks with our worthless dollars. I cannot because I already buy too many depreciating assets (namely hi-rez electronics). And them $40 high definition discs.

You should go buy a house then. Or American stocks with our worthless dollars. I cannot because I already buy too many depreciating assets (namely hi-rez electronics). And them $40 high definition discs.

You're taking your own personal perceptions/experiences and applying them to the country's economy as a whole. Surely you must see the logical gap there?


You're saying that the U.S. is in a recession (which it isn't) and that people are having trouble buying homes, fuel, food, and investments (stocks) because our dollar is "worthless"... and then in the same breath saying that you're buying too many electronics. :confused:



If you're worried about being able to buy a home or stocks, maybe you should reprioritize and make that your focus. Because it won't become any easier just because the price tag on high def discs drops by 10 bucks.

You're taking your own personal perceptions/experiences and applying them to the country's economy as a whole. Surely you must see the logical gap there?

You're saying that the U.S. is in a recession (which it isn't) and that people are having trouble buying homes, fuel, food, and investments (stocks) because our dollar is "worthless"... and then in the same breath saying that you're buying too many electronics. :confused:

If you're worried about being able to buy a home or stocks, maybe you should reprioritize and make that your focus. Because it won't become any easier just because the price tag on high def discs drops by 10 bucks.
It doesn't matter what I think of myself. It does however matter what others perceptions are of us and our country. I lived overseas for a year and it was a learning experience. The world sees America quite differently and more accurately than we ourself do, if I may say so. You are correct that there is this gap, of which I report. The worlds markets have voted on America and decided to pass. It never happened before. Hope that no one is too confused anymore.

Now I'm going to go watch Tom Cruise on my $20 Amazon electronically enhanced Top Gun because I feel so darn cocky. :cool:

You may have the last word...

You may have the last word...

I'm honestly not even sure of what your point is any more.

You started by blaming Amazon for "suckering" customers by listing the retail prices of their products. Then you quickly moved to how we're in a "nasty recession" in the U.S. Then you start saying how people can't afford necessities, yet also make the point about how $400 electronics are selling like pancakes. Now you're discussing how other countries view the U.S.

Every time we start discussing one of your statements, you decide to ignore what you said and start a new topic.

I guess my last word is: Huh?

Or maybe it is. If they have flagged you as a loyal customer who will probably just suck it up and keep ordering if they ship you something late, then maybe its working exactly as designed.

But if you immediately cancel you order once it ships late and buy it locally or from another on-line site, then maybe they're realize that and shape up.

Notice that one of the reasons you can give automatically when you cancel an order is "Would not arrive on time". Makes you wonder, maybe they are not rewarding loyalty but punishing it just a bit.

Wouldn't be the first time, Netflix did something vaugely similar.

Seems to me you're right.

I've cancelled two orders in a row because they were shipping so damn late it was just ridiculous, sure enough the last order was shipped on day of release. Let's see what happens with my next order.

I'm honestly not even sure of what your point is any more.

You started by blaming Amazon for "suckering" customers by listing the retail prices of their products. Then you quickly moved to how we're in a "nasty recession" in the U.S. Then you start saying how people can't afford necessities, yet also make the point about how $400 electronics are selling like pancakes. Now you're discussing how other countries view the U.S.

Every time we start discussing one of your statements, you decide to ignore what you said and start a new topic.

I guess my last word is: Huh?

Not even sure why it's revelant, but for the record, while no one is calling our current economic situation a recession, they might as well.

Oil is at an all time low. The housing market is at a near stand still. The dollar is losing serious value as a global currency and Food prices are already showing inflation and the stock market has been pretty unpredictable.

The games they've been playing with interest rates may be giving us a false sense of security.

That being said, most of the regulars in this forum AREN'T on the receiving end of this poor economic cycle in large part, otherwise they wouldn't be able to buy these high priced devices in the first place, or at least have a home to use them in.

Back to the topic though, I'm likely to use Amazon more often for my HD DVD purchases as brick and mortar stores rarely compete with HDM pricing. BOGO sales have been far and few between and in store discounts have been pretty much non existent.

Until B&Ms compete for HDM sales in the same manner they do for DVD sales, it's likely Amazon will remain at the top of many HDM shoppers lists.

While I had my Prime membership I always recieved my HDM the day after the release date, and being that it was free two-day shipping I didn't expect them until two days after the release date. So needless to say I have never been dissapointed with how they ship things to me.

Even without the prime membership I always tend to get things very quickly with standard or super saver shipping. Something that I did notice just recently though was while I was preordering the Bourne trilogy changing the shipping speed from super saver to standard changed the estimated ship date from Dec 18 to Dec 11.

Bottom-line is if you want the item faster, pay for faster shipping.

Not even sure why it's revelant, but for the record, while no one is calling our current economic situation a recession, they might as well.

Seriously, where are you folks getting this from? We "might as well" call this a recession? How about we don't.

The GDP results just released show that the economy GREW at a 4.9% pace for this summer. That's the most growth in a single quarter that we've seen in four years.

Certainly the future outlook isn't so rosy. Growth is expected to slow in the final quarter this year (to somewhere around 1.5%). But it's still GROWTH.

I don't see how anyone can (in any way, shape, or form) categorize that as a recession. It isn't.

Well, here is what I find interesting: On DVD orders, my items arrived on release date with overnight shipping. As an example, I accidentally ordered Surfs up on DVD from Amazon, and it arrived at my house on release day. With HDM, they arrive the day after with overnight shipping. Why do DVDs ship sooner than HDM?

Has anyone ever gotten Amazon to use only one particular carrier on all their orders?

I ordered a TON of HDM on Tuesday and had them overnighted via Prime at $4 a title or whatever. The order was split into separate shipments and while the UPS box arrived the next day on-time, my DHL portion is taking a grand tour of every DHL pitstop in North Georgia and a random one in Ohio.

I don't fault Amazon one bit-- they were great about promptly refunding me the shipping charges for the DHL portion today, but DHL isn't exactly being helpful. They told me over the phone that I'd "probably" get my package tomorrow, but that's not for certain. And even though my box is sitting 12 miles away, I am not allowed to come get it for some reason.

Is this level of service common for DHL? I thought UPS was considered the black sheep of the package carrying business.

Is this level of service common for DHL? I thought UPS was considered the black sheep of the package carrying business.

From the "FedEx stole my HD-A3" thread in the HDDVD player forum:

I was sitting at home in the office when I heard something slam hard into my front door. I shot up and ran to door to find a DHL van leaving from in front of my house and a square box sitting lopsided on my porch with a dented corner. My neighbor was out walking his dog and told me that the DHL guy stepped out of his van, walked to the curb, and then threw the package at my house (~28 feet). The box contained an Audi water pump with metal impeller. The box hit the door so hard that it cracked the impeller and had to be sent back for a replacement. :eek:

I have no love for DHL. At least FedEx and UPS get the job done right most of the time.

Wow, that's something.

I actually just remembered that I had my first-ever UPS employee theft this past August. I returned an iPhone to Apple that mysteriously disappeared in the final sort facility. I had forgotten about the return entirely until I received a letter from UPS (via USPS no less) that my package was found destroyed and empty on a conveyor belt and that an insurance check would be forthcoming for the full amount.

I have to give credit to UPS as a company for taking care of things in that particular case. The whole experience could have been a massive headache for me, but instead I had a reimbursement check and an apology that I didn't ask for within two weeks. :)

Has anyone ever gotten Amazon to use only one particular carrier on all their orders?

...

Is this level of service common for DHL? I thought UPS was considered the black sheep of the package carrying business.

i'm a prime member, and everything comes via the big brown truck for me... i always specify 2 day shipping, and if i order early enough in the day, i generally get it next day...

yes. dhl sucks. although it's hard to put their level of suck below ups. :)

I've noticed that Amazon all of a sudden started shipping me partial orders (at no extra cost), for currently-available disks bundled with pre-orders. It started right after I cancelled some disks from those orders.

I'm wondering if the computer got "scared" I was going to cancel the rest of the order? :eek:

i'm a prime member, and everything comes via the big brown truck for me... i always specify 2 day shipping, and if i order early enough in the day, i generally get it next day...

yes. dhl sucks. although it's hard to put their level of suck below ups. :)

I'm also a Prime member, and so far I've received items from UPS, DHL, and even a UPS/USPS combo for the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows books I pre-ordered.

Seriously, where are you folks getting this from? We "might as well" call this a recession? How about we don't.

The GDP results just released show that the economy GREW at a 4.9% pace for this summer. That's the most growth in a single quarter that we've seen in four years.

Certainly the future outlook isn't so rosy. Growth is expected to slow in the final quarter this year (to somewhere around 1.5%). But it's still GROWTH.

I don't see how anyone can (in any way, shape, or form) categorize that as a recession. It isn't.

This is the last I'll comment on this because again it isn't really relevant to the thread.

When measuring whether growth is positive or not, you have to take into account the full history. If you lost 2.5 million jobs in the past 4 years and then add 500,000 jobs that's progress, but not necessarily positive growth.

In other words:

x - 2.5 million jobs + 500,000 jobs does not equal x + 500,000 jobs.

We can play around with the numbers to make things look nice, but when you look at the entire picture, you can see things for what they are.

Take that as you will.

Seriously, where are you folks getting this from? We "might as well" call this a recession? How about we don't.

The GDP results just released show that the economy GREW at a 4.9% pace for this summer. That's the most growth in a single quarter that we've seen in four years.

Certainly the future outlook isn't so rosy. Growth is expected to slow in the final quarter this year (to somewhere around 1.5%). But it's still GROWTH.

I don't see how anyone can (in any way, shape, or form) categorize that as a recession. It isn't.

Most people haven't got a clue as to how to define a recession.

I received 3 months free of Prime membership. Order my Paramount, Dreamworks, Universal, and Weinstein titles from Amazon. I have been receiving my orders promptly - often on official day of release.

Maybe they are trying to impress me to keep that Prime membership ;) They have earned it in my case...

This is the last I'll comment on this because again it isn't really relevant to the thread.

When measuring whether growth is positive or not, you have to take into account the full history. If you lost 2.5 million jobs in the past 4 years and then add 500,000 jobs that's progress, but not necessarily positive growth.

In other words:

x - 2.5 million jobs + 500,000 jobs does not equal x + 500,000 jobs.

We can play around with the numbers to make things look nice, but when you look at the entire picture, you can see things for what they are.

Take that as you will.

You guys are really making my head hurt. ;) Obviously if you see huge losses and then small growth, you're not seeing net growth. No kidding. However -- and this is the crucial point -- those huge losses haven't happend. So it's a bit of a strawman argument.

A recession is typically two consecutive quarters where the gross domestic product (GDP) decreases. (The GDP is the value of all the reported goods and services produced by people and institutions operating in a country.) I just pointed out that the GDP actually increased more in Q3 than it has since mid-2003. (And that's not growth from loss... the GDP was up 3.8% in Q2.) That's a pretty clear sign that we're *not* in a recession.

Wall Street has also been in a bull market for four and 1/2 straight years!

As for your jobs example, unemployment is currently at 4.7%, up slightly from a six year low of 4.6% last year. Historically, that's pretty darn low.


I'm sure things are going to slow down pretty significantly in 2008. Hell, we may even see that "R-word" used legitimately before 2008 comes to a close. But we aren't even remotely close right now. All of the doom-and-gloom you're seeing in the media is anticipation for a possible recession.

I'm seeing a lot of people who are essentially saying "Hey, I'm seeing a lot of bad news reports about housing -- we must be in a recession" or "Damn, I'm paying over 3 bucks for gas -- we must be in a recession". Economists actually use a bit more structured data. ;)

You guys are really making my head hurt. ;) Obviously if you see huge losses and then small growth, you're not seeing net growth. No kidding. However -- and this is the crucial point -- those huge losses haven't happend. So it's a bit of a strawman argument.

A recession is typically two consecutive quarters where the gross domestic product (GDP) decreases. (The GDP is the value of all the reported goods and services produced by people and institutions operating in a country.) I just pointed out that the GDP actually increased more in Q3 than it has since mid-2003. (And that's not growth from loss... the GDP was up 3.8% in Q2.) That's a pretty clear sign that we're *not* in a recession.

Wall Street has also been in a bull market for four and 1/2 straight years!

As for your jobs example, unemployment is currently at 4.7%, up slightly from a six year low of 4.6% last year. Historically, that's pretty darn low.


I'm sure things are going to slow down pretty significantly in 2008. Hell, we may even see that "R-word" used legitimately before 2008 comes to a close. But we aren't even remotely close right now. All of the doom-and-gloom you're seeing in the media is anticipation for a possible recession.

I'm seeing a lot of people who are essentially saying "Hey, I'm seeing a lot of bad news reports about housing -- we must be in a recession" or "Damn, I'm paying over 3 bucks for gas -- we must be in a recession". Economists actually use a bit more structured data. ;)


Ok, I'll really try to leave it at this.

"The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

We've been able to offset data that suggests a recession with interest rate adjustments and changes to the employment structure that restrict filing for unemployed status after a set time period. We can't even get a real guage of bankrupcy as the laws have been changed to restrict more people from filing. It can also be argued that current wages in large due not reflect a current living wage. The minimum wage was just this year raised for the first time in a decade, and likely as a result, retail sales have been as unpredictable as the stock market is now for quite some time.

As I stated before, while the word "recession" has not officially been applied, the signs are there. We've just changed our structure to make them less prevalent.

I received 3 months free of Prime membership. Order my Paramount, Dreamworks, Universal, and Weinstein titles from Amazon. I have been receiving my orders promptly - often on official day of release.

Maybe they are trying to impress me to keep that Prime membership ;) They have earned it in my case...

For the amount they charge for Prime, I would expect no less. I'm trying it out for a month, but I'm not sure I shop at Amazon frequently enough to justify the expense.

Yes, that has been my experience as well. I pre-order as soon as titles become available, and only once have I received a title the day it is released.

I don't think I'm going to re-purchase my Prime membership in January. With the extra 10% savings (for those of us who bought 3 HDM titles early on) going away on 12/31, I don't see the advantage anymore. Overnight shipping is $3.99/title, which after the 10% discount made it about $1.50. But I still wasn't getting titles until 1-2 days after release. When it comes down to it, I can purchase just about everything (with the exception of box sets) as cheaply from Fry's or Wal Mart than I can at Amazon.com, even after tax. Since HDM is the bulk of what I buy there, there is no reason to keep up my prime membership anymore.

Well, make that twice now. PotC:AWE arrived today after lunch. next week is going to be a killer.

I have always gotten my orders on release date. Over the past month or two, almost every single order has been late by 2 days to a week or two. I still have not received shipping notice for POTC3, and it was preordered on the first day. Getting very frustrated with them.

S~