before we get into the contest this week, I want to discuss what is and is not allowed. Until the contest closes on Wednesday, nothing but predictions and the occasional comment on predictions is allowed. Feel free to point out that someone's prediction totals up to 110%. You are always free to explain how you came by your prediction. The first post in this thread will list all known sales and such that would have an influence on the Nielsen numbers. If you know of one that is not listed, PM me with it.

Do not discuss other people's prediction methods until Thursday. Back and forth conversation makes my job harder. Conversation opens up on Thursday. Keep it focused on the game.

Once the numbers come in on Friday, it is natural to want to discuss them. Do not discuss the quality of Nielsen.

If things get out of hand (as they did last week) this thread will be closed.

Do not discuss last week's numbers in here. As far as this thread goes, last week is over. HMM is out, and there was a slight change in the results. This will be reflected in the second post.

Now, on to this week.

YOUR PREDICTION THIS WEEK IS FOR THE SALES WEEK RUNNING FROM NOVEMBER 26 UNTIL DECEMBER 2.

This week sees a slow down in titles for BluRay after last week's frenzy. Sony unleashes Paprika and I Know Who Killed Me while Bandai Visual has released Jin Roh: The Wolf Brigade. In other words, a named movie, an anime title and a badly named anime title.

HD DVD leaps on this weak lineup with a slate of comedies. Paramount has Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, Hot Rod and Old School. Universal joins them with the always entertaining Rowan Atkinson in Mr. Bean's Holiday.

Seriously, are they even trying this week?

Warner comes out with a blatant attempt to cash in on their forthcoming I Am Legend with the original movie version, The Omega Man.

Anyone know HD VMD's lineup this week?

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

This thread is not for the discussion of math, the advantages or disadvantages of either format, an analysis of the Nielsen numbers, any other source of sales figures (unless they are a reason you are making your prediction) or any insults.

I will post my prediction around 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. My prediction marks the end of the entry period. You may change your prediction any time up until then. If the numbers are released early, any prediction after they are out will be tossed. Except mine. I still get to close the game.


Nielsen contest entries for 12/07/2007

NAME BD:HD
lonestarwings 80:20
IntoTheBlu 80:20
mcgarnagle 79:21
edgebsl 79:21
flizmo 78:22
sciolist 78:22
hoodlum 77:23
Ethos99 76:24
CRFTony 76:24
Mel2 75:25
hassoon 75:25
neillkirn 74:26
phansson 74:26
jvillain 74:26
m1cst4rr 73:27
lomax 73:27
Wet1 73:27
Chris NYC 72:28
JackBee 72:28
Greg Kettell 72:28
jwdav 72:28
chuckamuck 72:28
Elwar 71:29
bato 71:29
MarekM 71:29
Leviathin25 71:29
shamus 71:29
merv43 71:29
Reylas 71:29
Assayer 71:29
rcutlass70 70:30
ehomer 70:30
ninjanki 70:30
dobyblue 70:30
frizshizzle 70:30
Jocky Wilson 70:30
Jim Morrison 70:30
opfreak 70:30
jhinesjr 70:30
Aresca 70:30
chirpie 70:30
StylinRed 70:30
nyg 69:31
tiger roach 69:31
jkwest 69:31
ottscay 69:31
habscolts 69:31
darinp2 69:31
JimboTHX1138 69:31
Evan702 69:31
LynxFX 69:31
Sketcha 69:31
theflux 69:31
Grubert 69:31
Fran O'Hern 69:31
Joon TV 69:31
wakeboredb 69:31
William 68:32
vancamp 68:32
anttimonty 68:32
SGRSBSKIER 68:32
Optica 68:32
JoeFigueiredo 68:32
ToddUGA 68:32
TheCuze 68:32
eightninesuited 68:32
Baccusboy 68:32
soremekun 68:32
user friendly 68:32
elikhom 68:32
venk 68:32
Everdog 68:32
extra_hc 68:32
Neo1965 68:32
Bailey151 67:33
basano 67:33
Calamus 67:33
tonngo0 67:33
yampan 67:33
Brian Hampton 67:33
Merrick97 67:33
digicam95 67:33
online 67:33
TPigeon2006 67:33
Woodshed 67:33
gand41f 67:33
MRMOTA 67:33
bpsmith14 67:33
papi4baby 67:33
randori 66:34
30XS955 User 66:34
dc_pilgrim 66:34
wrobe73928 66:34
crimsona 66:34
CochiseGuy 66:34
Rich Peterson 66:34
Kemet 66:34
spacejamz 66:34
geko29 66:34
todrigo 66:34
UxiSXRD 66:34
Will d s 66:34
JAC6 66:34
Bill0711 66:34
Azumi 66:34
huntaar 66:34
Randdom Digital 66:34
ataxic_dentist 65:35
Husso 65:35
Kable 65:35
Jagt Mirage 65:35
PrinceLH 65:35
Blu-Devil 65:35
fitprod 65:35
Rooper 65:35
MASrules 65:35
JBlacklow 65:35
xradman 64:36
bolaar 64:36
coolhand 64:36
splinters 64:36
ICBM99 64:36
hammie34 64:36
iontyre 64:36
Icemage 64:36
manikin 64:36
sunstar 64:36
badboi 63:37
MattHD 63:37
mswoods1 63:37
trondmm 63:37
raaj 62:38
donricouga 62:38
Slirp 62:38
dildatonr 61:39
Clark Burk 61:39
mossman22 61:39
BuGsArEtAsTy 61:39
allargon 61:39
merlintl 61:39
roadmanc 60:40
gljvd 60:40
bori 60:40
chipvideo 60:40
briankmonkey 60:40
Numanoid101 60:40
user4avsforum 60:40
Robert Spalding 60:40
george king 60:40
theone2 60:40
caesartheboxer 60:40
gdeep 60:40
wipron 60:40
aaronwt 60:40
stefanpaulmayer 60:40
Andy_Dandy 59:41
bigdaveman 59:41
dmcfan 59:41
Chris_TC 59:41
RDarrylR 59:41
PopcornReady 58:42
Winn 58:42
Lyion 57:43
rdjam 56:44
teachsac 56:44
jwebb1970 55:45
khwiggins2 55:45
Jonto81 55:45
Frank Derks 55:45
Steve Schauer 54:46
Vov76 54:46
GmanAVS 53:47
DanTou 52:48
srt4b 50:50
krylonone 49:51
Kosty 46:54
Shmack 40:60
kkozma 40:60



NEW RELEASES THIS WEEK:

HD DVD
Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (Paramount)
Hot Rod (Paramount)
Old School (Paramount)
Mr Bean's Holiday (Universal)
The Omega Man (Warner)

BD
Paprika (Sony)
Jin Roh: The Wolf Brigade (Bandai Visual)
I Know Who Killed Me (Sony)
The Omega Man (Warner)

Nielsen contest results for 11/30/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 72:28

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
MASrules 67:33 17 3.24
Rooper 69:31 9 3.33
huntaar 68:32 12 3.50
Assayer 63:37 10 3.60
JeffY 63:37 15 3.73
stefanpaulmayer 68:32 15 3.80
Reylas 71:29 17 3.94
Azumi 68:32 17 3.94
Everdog 61:39 17 3.94
extra_hc 68:32 16 3.94
lomax 65:35 17 4.00
Bill0711 61:39 8 4.00
merv43 70:30 5 4.00
MRMOTA 67:33 2 4.00
gand41f 62:38 16 4.13
JAC6 66:34 11 4.18
Raxel 69:31 16 4.19
Grubert 60:40 15 4.20
Woodshed 68:32 10 4.20
manikin 68:32 17 4.24
fitprod 69:31 16 4.25
venk 62:38 4 4.25
shamus 64:36 16 4.31
theflux 60:40 17 4.35
Sketcha 67:33 17 4.35
LynxFX 68:32 17 4.41
Will d s 63:37 13 4.46
trondmm 65:35 13 4.46
user friendly 65:35 10 4.50
elikhom 64:36 2 4.50
TPigeon2006 68:32 17 4.53
UxiSXRD 69:31 17 4.71
Evan702 67:33 7 4.71
todrigo 55:45 15 4.80
geko29 74:26 17 4.82
Vov76 64:36 13 4.85
online 60:40 17 4.88
spacejamz 67:33 16 4.88
Blu-Devil 55:45 16 5.00
phansson 69:31 12 5.00
plazman 60:40 11 5.00
JimboTHX1138 67:33 1 5.00
aaronwt 60:40 17 5.06
digicam95 70:30 12 5.08
RDarrylR 67:33 10 5.10
darinp2 53:47 17 5.12
iontyre 55:45 14 5.14
chirpie 65:35 13 5.15
Aresca 69:31 10 5.20
habscolts 64:36 9 5.22
hammie34 60:40 17 5.24
soremekun 65:35 16 5.25
neillkirn 68:32 12 5.25
Baccusboy 60:40 14 5.29
Kemet 66:34 10 5.30
allargon 63:37 16 5.31
ottscay 61:39 15 5.33
Rich Peterson 67:33 3 5.33
donricouga 63:37 16 5.38
ICBM99 66:34 15 5.40
audiomixer 65:35 5 5.40
Ronin_R6 68:32 14 5.43
wipron 71:29 11 5.45
BuGsArEtAsTy 49:51 12 5.58
CochiseGuy 62:38 12 5.58
eightninesuited 67:33 17 5.59
crimsona 63:37 16 5.63
splinters 72:28 3 5.67
TheCuze 68:32 3 5.67
PrinceLH 62:38 8 5.75
Jim Morrison 72:28 15 5.80
Leviathin25 65:35 10 5.80
coolhand 58:42 10 5.90
mswoods1 60:40 12 5.92
jwdav 62:38 2 6.00
IntoTheBlu 66:34 1 6.00
wrobe73928 66:34 1 6.00
mossman22 66:34 1 6.00
Jocky Wilson 58:42 7 6.29
ToddUGA 63:37 10 6.30
edgebsl 69:31 8 6.38
Greg Kettell 61:39 7 6.43
JoeFigueiredo 65:35 6 6.50
gdeep 65:35 2 6.50
JackBee 71:29 10 6.60
bato 58:42 5 6.60
frizshizzle 70:30 5 6.60
GmanAVS 53:47 16 6.75
Winn 73:27 17 6.76
Optica 61:39 5 6.80
caesartheboxer 60:40 11 6.91
SGRSBSKIER 71:29 13 7.00
MattHD 46:54 7 7.00
bolaar 58:42 2 7.00
Lbarber 59:41 8 7.25
Jonto81 45:55 13 7.31
CRFTony 69:31 12 7.33
Kable 60:40 10 7.40
ninjanki 64:36 5 7.40
Chris_TC 53:47 9 7.44
jkwest 68:32 15 7.47
rdjam 49:51 16 7.56
Brian Hampton 61:39 9 7.56
studiotan 54:46 5 7.60
hassoon 69:31 3 7.67
Husso 70:30 3 7.67
badboi 73:27 3 7.67
tiger roach 67:33 4 7.75
george king 48:52 10 8.00
khwiggins2 65:35 8 8.00
Chris NYC 66:34 2 8.00
sciolist 64:36 1 8.00
lonestarwings 80:20 1 8.00
PopcornReady 55:45 10 8.20
Robert Spalding 70:30 9 8.22
alfbinet 55:45 8 8.25
m1cst4rr 61:39 6 8.33
ricwhite 63:37 3 8.33
user4avsforum 50:50 13 8.38
yampan 61:39 8 8.50
Clark Burk 59:41 6 8.50
dc_pilgrim 69:31 6 8.67
ehomer 75:25 3 8.67
ataxic_dentist 70:30 6 8.83
Numanoid101 55:45 8 8.88
tonngo0 70:30 9 9.00
rcutlass70 55:45 6 9.33
anttimonty 71:29 6 9.33
Calamus 64:36 3 9.33
briankmonkey 40:60 17 9.35
DanTou 68:32 8 9.38
dmcfan 58:42 6 9.67
Kosty 49:51 17 9.82
xradman 50:50 11 9.91
Elwar 66:34 5 10.40
basano 62:38 2 10.50
dildatonr 58:42 2 10.50
bigdaveman 50:50 9 10.56
SquirrelPhister 47:53 8 11.00
eurotrance 59:41 2 11.00
GizmoDVD 61:39 1 11.00
chipvideo 52:48 6 11.33
bori 52:48 6 11.50
nyg 62:38 2 12.00
vancamp 56:44 2 12.00
William 59:41 1 13.00
gljvd 65:35 2 13.50
kkozma 30:70 11 13.73
Steve Schauer 54:46 2 15.00
roadmanc 55:45 2 15.00
randori 54:46 2 15.50
Andy_Dandy 58:42 8 16.50
Vader 52:48 1 20.00
Shmack 30:70 16 21.50
jwebb1970 50:50 1 22.00
kcmurphy88 47:53 1 25.00



Perfect Picks:


4
trondmm (6,7,8,13)

3
hammie34 (1, 5,7)
BrynRhys (3,4,11)
GmanAVS (4,5,15)
MASrules (7,8,16)

2
Ilka (3, 6)
Darinp2 (1,7)
Sketcha (7,8)
Wet1 (7,8)
TNO821 (7,8)
dad1153 (3,8)
Ronin_R6 (6,8)
shamus (3,8)
Grubert (6,10)
BuGsArEtAsTy (7,11)
ToddUGA (8,11)
dumbswede (8,12)
extra_hc (10,12)
Kork (11,12)
TPigeon2006 (8,13)
gand41f (3, 13)
theflux (12,13)
oregoncalfroper (13,14)
Rooper (11,14)
Vov76 (10,14)
Kable (13,15)
aaronwt (6,15)
huntaar (11,16)
spacejamz (11,16)

1
splinters (17)
Jim Morrison (17)
frizshizzle (16)
Optica (16)
LynxFX (16)
bolaar (16)
user4avsforum (15)
george king (15)
allargon (15)
aaronwt (15)
MarekM (14)
phansson (14)
geko29 (14)
MrXpress (14)
venk (14)
Brian Hampton (13)
theone2 (13)
chipvideo (13)
Reginald Trent (13)
mlankton (13)
bunkaroo (13)
wipron (13)
Greg Kettell (13)
Neo1965 (13)
Bill0711 (13)
rob71 (13)
anotheraviator (12)
frasersean (12)
SquirrelPhister (12)
GeorgeLV (12)
manikin (12)
lomax (12)
alfbinet (12)
neillkirn (12)
ack_bk (12)
stefanpaulmayer (12)
kevivoe (12)
ChristopherB (11)
edgebsl (11)
FortySix&2 (11)
user friendly (10)
Kemet (10)
Reylas (10)
Blu-Devil (10)
patrick99 (10)
pdusk88 (10)
philnerd (10)
PrinceLH (10)
SGRSBSKIER (9)
soremekun (8)
todrigo (8)
edo9125 (8)
samcan07 (8)
JeffY (8)
Everdog (8)
assayer (8)
CochiseGuy
mswoods1 (8)
-diVe- (8)
patrick99 (8)
iontyre (7)
Raxel (7)
ddelrio (7)
Enigma (7)
MichaelHDDVD (7)
Numanoid101 (7)
audiomixer (6)
HiddenDepth (6)
crimsona (6)
tgraphics (6)
online (6)
Noggin1980 (6)
teacher_man99 (5)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
whippersnapper (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
bboisvert (1)



Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 74 3 75 (13) [60] 62 50 (12) [12] 65.14 65 64
2 90 4 88 (22) [73] 66 58 (8) [13] 68.3 68 68
3 94 9 75 (4) [11] 71 55 (16) [74] 68.46 69 70
4 98 6 81 (13) [69] 68 55*(13) [23] 69.27 71 72
5 107 3 70 (14) [89] 56 40 (16) [15] 59.64 60 60
6 122 11 70 (10) [87] 60 45 (15) [24] 62.29 62 62
7 132 14 72 (11) [67] 61 45 (16) [51] 61.26 62 62
8 139 22 74 (11) [38] 63 50 (13) [89] 61.99 62 63
9 137 1 69 (15) [130] 54 40 (14) [6] 60.47 61 60
10 146 11 83 (15) [35] 68 45 (23) [100] 64 64 64
11 150 10 78 (7) [15] 71 35 (36) [125] 66.41 67 70
12 184 15 76 (25) [68] 51 2 (49) [101] 47.91 49 51
13 174 17 70 (15) [99] 55 20 (35) [58] 56.34 57 55
14 172 8 86 (15) [21] 71 27 (44) [143] 62.51 65 68
15 177 6 93 (28) [163] 65 48 (17) [9] 74.20 75 75
16 177 7 72 (6) [16] 66 20 (46) [154] 59 60 60
17 154 2 80 (8) [5] 72 30 (42) [147] 62.06 63.5 68
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

*Outrageous guess ignored.

(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest. Icemage created the excel database to save em the trouble of doing all this by hand.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- I heard something about a prize? What is it? How can I win it?

Whoever wins the competition while entering guessing in at least 75% of the weeks will be declared the winner. The prize is a $10 gift certificate to the online retailer of their choice. Also, they get to gloat about their predictive powers in their sig.

At this point, new players cannot win the prize. Sorry.

5- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) publishes the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

6- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVD, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

7- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert, Kosty, myself and others have confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

October6, 2006 list of contributors. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=75416&d=1171406427)

8- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).

9- What happens if the numbers get leaked early?

This was covered in some of the early threads, but I stopped including it. The competition will shut down as of the time of the release. The only prediction accepted after this will be my own. Since I can't win the competition, this is more for laughs than anything else. Hey, thanks to HMM rounding, I was off by 1 when this happened in week 17.

63:37

78:22

YOUR PREDICTION THIS WEEK IS FOR THE SALES WEEK RUNNING FROM NOVEMBER 26 UNTIL DECEMBER 2.

This week sees a slow down in titles for BluRay after last week's frenzy. Sony unleashes Paprika and I Know Who Killed Me while Bandai Visual has released Jin Roh: The Wolf Brigade. In other words, a pair of badly named movie and an anime title.

HD DVD leaps on this weak lineup with a slate of comedies. Paramount has Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, Hot Rod and Old School. Universal joins them with the always entertaining Rowan Atkinson in Mr. Bean's Holiday.

Seriously, are they even trying this week?

Warner comes out with a blatant attempt to cash in on their forthcoming I Am Legend with the original movie version, The Omega Man.

Anyone know HD VMD's lineup this week?
Heh. I like the commentary. ;)


So... As evidenced by my completely wrong prediction last week, waiting doesn't help me any, so I may as well throw in my prediction early.

61 : 39

P.S. Guys, let's try to keep this thread from getting locked this time. :p

62:38

61:39

71:29

I'm feeling frisky:

65:35

60:40

55:45

Residuals of Die Hard 1-4, Spiderman 3 + trilogy, Ratatouille, Cars, Oceans 13, 300 and more will trump anything HD DVD has. Star Trek is a complete disaster for HD DVD, selling so few copies (is it because it is a combo and people are waiting for the DVD Only due to fears of buying into a format they are not willing to buy into?), Shrek is already being outsold by Rat which came out before it, and Transformers is pretty much the only shine of light left for the HD DVD side. All warner titles including the Oceans movies are being sold more on BD then HD. The madness will continue and i think by end of year, we'll be in the 80:20s if not worse for HD DVD. This week is a cake walk however, going to predict 72:28, even tho i feel it will be 75:25, i want to be on the safe side in case some toshiba malarkey comes through and ruins the perfect 3:1.

55:45

67/33

59:41

Just to echo Winn's comments about how last week's discussions deteriorated:

When the new rules were put in place, Mark Rubin went to the mat for us with the Admins, who eventually relented and allowed us to keep our fun little game. Please don't reward this kindness by making him look like an ***hole.

And I guess I'll vote early this week too: 66/34

55:45

60:40

67:33

60:40

66:34

Just under 2:1.

What was last week's ratio? I don't see the Nielson thread

anyways I guess 65:35 for next week

66:34.

74:26

59:41

69:31

71:29 blu continues to dominate

70:30

Stickin to my optomistic guns...

40:60

One day I'll get it right!

Stickin to my optomistic guns...

40:60

One day I'll get it right!

Not while you have HD-DVD winning! :D

My pick:
68:32

76/24

68:32

No clue.

66/34

60-40

66:34

64:36

63:37

What was last week's ratio? I don't see the Nielson thread
Last week was 72:28 (This is not my guess for this week, I'm just answering the question :)).

64:36
Bd:hd

67:33

Last week was 72:28 (This is not my guess for this week, I'm just answering the question :)).

Thanx. I was off by 4

Is there a thread that has all of the Nielsen's for the entire year?

I think I'll wait till Wednesday to guess for once.

68:32

56:44

S~

62:38

Winn... Do you think it might be a good idea to move up the deadline so early leaks dont screw up our little game?

Also, perhaps it could be arranged that the last post in each weekly thread (before the inevitable locking of the thread due to an apparent inability of some to stay on topic) is the numbers from Nielsen, including the ratios, index numbers, and the best sellers for each format. That would prevent such questions in the new thread and would actually be useful. I miss seeing the index numbers, as they are very helpful for the next week's estimates.

60:40

69:31

67:33

I don't see HD DVD turning things around with those releases.

76:24

70:30

68:32

The final numbers are in, according to HomeMediaRetailing.com...

72:28

I'll take 69:31.

64:36

61:39

65:35

74:26

Blu-ray 66:34 HDDVD

70:30

71:29

49-51

75:25
;)::mad:

70:30

65:35

65:35

Wild swingsRus

64:36

No Rhyme or Reason.

67:33

70:30

70:30

64 entries so far. Fast start. I guess people are scared of missing out if we get an early leak.

I figure that was a one time thing for Black Friday and we will not be seeing it again.

64:36

-splints

66/34

60:40

68:32

68:32

69:31

68:32

69:31

67:33

54:46

68:32

69:31

64:36

72:28

69:31

i will guess 68:32, but i think there is room for a surprise swing in the percentages when there is no blockbuster movie on aether side.

69:31

60:40

65-35 Bd.

68:32

66:34

61:39

that's weird that there's a prediction thread yet no thread for the actual numbers.

anyways I'll say 80:20 blu.

66/34

70:30

89 entries in 2 days.

69:31

--Darin

64:36

50:50

59:41

52:48

BD : HD
58:42

I continue to be spectacularly wrong, week after week. LOL.

A quiet week it seems; and is it my imagination or have the BOGO sales died down a bit too? I would think that would help HD DVD.

The only title I'm keen on this week is Omega Man (available in both formats); although in the right mood I'd probably spring for Mr Bean's Holiday (HD DVD only). I know much of it has been done before but it's actually been years since I've watched the TV stuff so it's probably sort of fresh again. The trailer on HDNet earlier this looked promising.

69:31

In before the leak :D

53 : 47

3rd week in a row with same prediction.... could it be a charm and allow me to join the elusive trondmm at the top ?

70:30

67:33

I cant recall if Ive already made my prediction, if I have THIS IS THE ONE I WANT TO USE.

Thanks Winn.

79:21

I was way off last week with my guess of 65:35, but with no real titles on any side this week, the biggest effect on the ratios should be the drop-off from last week's bestsellers. There's no doubt Blu-ray had the biggest sellers last week, so I'm fairly confident the pendulum will swing in HD DVD's favor.

My estimate this week is: 63:37

66:34

73:27

Slow Sunday, we're only up to 102. Sunday usually is slow, though.

Just in case numbers get leaked again, putting in my guess now.

No significant impact from any of this week's new releases.

64 : 36

67:33

66:34

70:30 blu

68:32

71:29

71-29

And where are the standings? I cant find the updated ones.

And where are the standings? I cant find the updated ones.

They're in post #308 from last week:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=12349866&postcount=308

Actually, did it not turn out that those were incorrect? That is based on 73-27. That was not the case.

66:34

70 : 30

66:34

70:30 for Blu-ray. Things are gonna be ugly for the red's until Bourne comes out to the rescue...

64:36

68:32

67:33

Br:hd
66:34

71:29

69:31

68:32

49:51 HD DVD finally sneaks one in.

A blind squirrel may find a nut eventually, so I'll keep with this guess. :p

With no major new releases or deals, new hardware owners may finally start to have some impact.

49:51

:o

71:29

Except for a minor pro-HD bump when Bourne 3 is released, the rest of the year will look like this barring any big promos.

I predict:

59:41

57:43 Bd:hd

63:37

60:40

65/35

79 : 21

71-29

And where are the standings? I cant find the updated ones.

Actually, did it not turn out that those were incorrect? That is based on 73-27. That was not the case.

Yes, they are based on the slightly off numbers. The real standings would be slightly different. I believe I have the standings in the second post, but I have not removed the non-qualified from there.

49:51 HD DVD finally sneaks one in.

A blind squirrel may find a nut eventually, so I'll keep with this guess. :p

With no major new releases or deals, new hardware owners may finally start to have some impact.

Careful Kosty, I'm not sure if you are the blind squirrel or the nut. :D

128 entries. I'm going to do the reminders tomorrow afternoon.

ok, maybe I am being stupid, but I dont see them there. I see the *old* standings in the *other* thread, but I do not see anything attached to this thread. Also, my prediction is missing.

But if you already knew that Winn, then ignore me :)

Appreciate all you are doing.

ok, maybe I am being stupid, but I dont see them there. I see the *old* standings in the *other* thread, but I do not see anything attached to this thread. Also, my prediction is missing.

But if you already knew that Winn, then ignore me :)

Appreciate all you are doing.

Look again, I had forgotten it.

Careful Kosty, I'm not sure if you are the blind squirrel or the nut. :D


:D

Kosty, your optimism is humorous, if nothing else.

Originally Posted by Winn
Careful Kosty, I'm not sure if you are the blind squirrel or the nut. Probably the nut. :)

I've been waiting all year for accumulating HD DVD hardware sales to increase software sales over the current releases. But the BDA strategy to do anything posiible to keep the win streak going has been masterful all year.

:D Kosty, your optimism is humorous, if nothing else. I may very well be wrong if the BDA gives away 10.000s of copies Open Season again.:p

But what if I'm right? :D

Last defense I'll state in this thread, is that there are no blockbuster releases or deals I know of that should dominate this sales week, and its been a couple weeks since the HD DVD hardware sales, about the time for them to start buying movies. Please send any other discussions on my vote to me by PM so it doesn't derail the thread.

69:31

In before the leak :D My theory is the earlier the leak, the more likely it is a surprise for either side. If its strong Blu-ray or HD DVD the more incentive it will come out early. If its 60-65% Blu-ray, no story there so it will be more likely to be a routine announcement.

Probably the nut. :)

I've been waiting all year for accumulating HD DVD hardware sales to increase software sales over the current releases. But the BDA strategy to do anything posiible to keep the win streak going has been masterful all year.

I may very well be wrong if the BDA gives away 10.000s of copies Open Season again.:p

But what if I'm right? :D

Last defense I'll state in this thread, is that there are no blockbuster releases or deals I know of that should dominate this sales week, and its been a couple weeks since the HD DVD hardware sales, about the time for them to start buying movies. Please send any other discussions on my vote to me by PM so it doesn't derail the thread.

Good times Kosty, good times my friend :)

I'm sticking with the HD DVD optimist club -- 40:60 in favor of HD DVD! :)

(Oh, and last week was only 72:28? Well, that's a relief. :) People were talking about some kind of thrashing! ;))

Sixty Seven : Thirty Three

60:40

68:32

70:30

60:40

68:32

Go HD VMD! You can't get Lazytown on those other formats!
btw, my HD VMD prediction this week is 0 pecent.

135 entries. Reminders are about to go out.

69:31

68:32

59:41

60:40

60:40

72:28. die hard will still dominate and the legs of ratatouille and spidey are quite long and sexy.

67:33

62:38

66-34

60:40

68:32

69:31

66:34 Blu

Nothing really new or good from either camp, so my guess is the numbers will stay the same (over all).

61:39

I'm gonna go with a consistant 68:32, since there's nothing new to drastically alter the playing field.

Next week however, we got us some Superbad and Pirates love, so who knows how that's gonna play.

BD 69:31 hd dvd

60:40

67:33

80:20

Same prediction as last week, I was actually closer than I thought I'd be.

55:45 - why not?

60:40

72:28. die hard will still dominate and the legs of ratatouille and spidey are quite long and sexy.

John McClain has 2 legs x 4 movies, Remy has 4 legs, and Spidey has 8.

Thats like...a million legs!

56:44

65:35

66/34
i am failing

159, already more than last week.

74:26

65 Blu
35 HD DVD

67 blu
33 hd dvd

I'd like to say Paprika is going to push Blu over 70, but that's probably not going to happen. :o

67:33

enjoy
gandalf :o

61:39

I'd like to say Mr. Bean will push HD DVD into the win column - but that's probably not going to happen, either. :p

So, I'll go with 66:34

;)

78:22

66:34 Bd.

69:31

Thought I'd give this a try.

68:32

54:46 bd

64-36

I have lost all touch. I missed by 14 last week and have no idea how (can we include the promos in the first page- giving away 10k Open Season disks does make a difference in these things). My personal view is that these numbers mean less and less each week. Might have actually been worse as Wally gave out 10 BD disks "free" with each 80g PS3.

77:23

99:1 :eek:

J/K

How about 66.6 : 33.4 :D

64-36

I have lost all touch. I missed by 14 last week and have no idea how (can we include the promos in the first page- giving away 10k Open Season disks does make a difference in these things). My personal view is that these numbers mean less and less each week. Might have actually been worse as Wally gave out 10 BD disks "free" with each 80g PS3.

Wally dont count for Nielsy yoh!!! I dont believe WM is that big of a player for High Deff Media, not yet anyways.

71:29 BD.

Marek

The "leak" is out, without any ratio hint - Live Free or Die Hard was the #1 BD title, while Planet Earth was the top HD DVD title. :eek:

Hollywood Reporter (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i7631a4fea1c15e09ffacc3e3f2c31cfe)

On the high-definition disc charts, "Die Hard" came out on top for Blu-ray Disc, and "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," from Warner Home Video, made a return to the top of the HD DVD chart. "Die Hard" is available only on Blu-ray.

Hollywood Reporter -"Die Hard' stays alive atop sales, rental charts" (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i7631a4fea1c15e09ffacc3e3f2c31cfe)

72:28

This might hurt, but put me down for 73:27 on team blue.

oops. I'd change my guess to 74:26, but that would be unfair. I'll stick with the 68:32 and live with the consequences.

Planet Earth topping the charts of HD DVD isn't actually such a bad sign: Warner will welcome the multi-disc revenue; and it suggests the relatively new HD DVD player owners are going for a family set which everyone, universally agrees, is both entertaining and good eye candy for a new player.

Anyway, I voted as I voted; let the chips fall as they may. What ... 1 pm Friday Eastern and all is revealed as usual?

planet earth topping the charts for hd dvd is bad. i revise my prediction to 75:25.

planet earth topping the charts for hd dvd is bad. i revise my prediction to 75:25.

Sales were likely very low on both sides due to weak releases on both sides. :(

Sales were likely very low on both sides due to weak releases on both sides. :(

It's possible that DH4 did very badly, or P.E. on HD DVD was part of some large promotion and has large numbers, but for DH4 AND spidey3 AND rat to fade away completely to near previous P.E. numbers should be unlikely. (ie: to be selling in the 2000-3000 range is VERY unlikely)

So unless P.E. - HD numbers do jump up drastically over the previous week, this should be a deep blu week as well.

Something's strange though, TF should have more legs than this, so the P.E. -HD jump scenario is not impossible. Was there a promotion with free P.E. for every player in some B&Ms last week?

Was there a promotion with free P.E. for every player in some B&Ms last week?

Not that I know of.

Not that I know of.

Either way, this is strange. Perhaps what they meant is that PE made it back into the Top 10 and wasnt the top title.

I find it very hard to believe this title would top Transformers and Shrek 3.

Strange things have happened lately (almost all of them pleasant for bluray :) ), but PE being the top selling HD-DVD title would top them all.

i will change mine for the first time and go 73:27, this way i know my first guess will be right.LOL

I still can't believe that Shrek3 and TF would both fade to < 10k so quickly, so that must mean P.E. sold a lot of disks on HD this week. A surprise if this was true.

Not that I know of.

Gonna leak the ratio for us this week? :)

Oh, I'll change my guess too, if that's still possible.

72:28

Maybe a lot of unsuspecting nature lovers want to watch the "HD" version on their DVD player.

Bd 65-35 Hd

I've had a horrendous day and am going to put my guess in early. Anyone who posts with a timestamp of 12:10 or earlier will be counted when I check in the morning.

I am going to say you guys have it all wrong. The numbers are going to be down this week in terms of volume. Without any major titles driving anything, volume will be down, and this is going to move things toward HD DVD as BD as farther to fall. FOX overprices things too much to have any real legs and at least some of those new HD DVD owners will want something new and Planet Earth is likely up based on that.

But, forget all that. As a group, we stat chase. Look at our performance history. We go way over or under for a week or two, then miss the other way. Based on that, I'll say 61-39. Nah, too much company at that point, I like to stand alone. 62-38 looks better in terms of how many people are there, but, if I am going low, I am freaking going low. 60-40 is right out, still too much at 59. Hey, Popcorn, want some company at 58-42? No? Tough.

58-42.

Gonna leak the ratio for us this week? :)

I already know, but I won't tell until Friday morning. I don't want to ruin your guys fun ;)

P.S. People will be surprised at the numbers this week.

Maybe a lot of unsuspecting nature lovers want to watch the "HD" version on their DVD player.

Christmas presents... Blu's are likely high as well.

I already know, but I won't tell until Friday morning. I don't want to ruin your guys fun ;)

P.S. People will be surprised at the numbers this week.

Probably means that HD-DVD did well this week, but we'll see.

I forgot my original prediction but Im sticking with it.

I already know, but I won't tell until Friday morning. I don't want to ruin your guys fun ;)

P.S. People will be surprised at the numbers this week.
Our poll closes in an hour. How about then?

Prediction newbie here.

71:29

Probably means that HD-DVD did well this week, but we'll see.

I forgot my original prediction but Im sticking with it.

Or BD went a 90:10... That would be surprising...

I'll go major ballsy...

90:10 BD

What was released for the HD-DVD camp that week?

Ok first guess on the prediction threads and I'm going to go with 85:15 BD.

66:34


i would like to change mine to 77:23 if I still can... :)

Or BD went a 90:10... That would be surprising...

I'll go major ballsy...

90:10 BD

Not likely...but these last few weeks have been surprising.
Its quite possible a lot of bluray people were putting off until the following week (ala this week), while HD-DVD people might have went all out.

Only Dave knows for sure.

Not likely...but these last few weeks have been surprising.
Its quite possible a lot of bluray people were putting off until the following week (ala this week), while HD-DVD people might have went all out.

Only Dave knows for sure.

Definitely could be. I have no idea, but your assumption is probably more sound than mine, but i'll take a crack from this side.

There was discussion last week about revising a pick after a "hint", but is it really any different than posting after the "top guys" post their prediction?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and change mine to

55:45

I already know, but I won't tell until Friday morning. I don't want to ruin your guys fun ;)

P.S. People will be surprised at the numbers this week.

I can keep a secret!:D

There was discussion last week about revising a pick after a "hint", but is it really any different than posting after the "top guys" post their prediction?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and change mine to

55:45

I agree, if hints are let out of the bag then shouldnt it be closed?

P.S. People will be surprised at the numbers this week.


Could HD DVD have won this week?????

That would be the biggest surprise of 2007.

Was there a promotion with free P.E. for every player in some B&Ms last week?I recall seeing PE on sale in Best Buy for under $70 on both formats, but don't recall if that was during last week. PE on both formats went up in the rankings on Amazon around 11/21 after I think an Oprah showing talking about it was repeated and it ended up on her recommended list for Christmas (the DVD was the main thing mentioned on that list with the HD DVD and Blu-ray mentioned), but the HD DVD went up much more. It has stayed higher in the rankings on Amazon over the last 2 weeks or so, while the BD is about where it was 2 months ago.

--Darin

Could HD DVD have won this week?????

That would be the biggest surprise of 2007.

VERY UNLIKELY. I seriously dont see that happening, unless HD-DVD owners went on a crazy buying spree and BD owners stayed at home, while saving up for this week ;)

Am I the only one who thinks the "I know and I'm not telling, but you will all be surprised" sort of posts drain the fun from this endeavor? And, I'm willing to bet that someone either got the numbers on the nose or was within a percent or two. There are few (realistic) numbers that would be surprising.

And, on an unrelated note, if we get too far into how "good" or "bad" the numbers are for one format or the other, we can get a stopwatch out to see how quickly the thread is locked.

man i should have stuck with my first pick, o well when I through the dice i do good but when i start to over think i mess up.

Am I the only one who thinks the "I know and I'm not telling, but you will all be surprised" sort of posts drain the fun from this endeavor? And, I'm willing to bet that someone either got the numbers on the nose or was within a percent or two. There are few (realistic) numbers that would be surprising.

And, on an unrelated note, if we get too far into how "good" or "bad" the numbers are for one format or the other, we can get a stopwatch out to see how quickly the thread is locked.

I agree. People need to pick and stick with it. When Dave makes a post that things will be suprising, it makes people second guess their post and ask for changes.

I like you Dave, but if the cat is out of the bag and you know the numbers, then you should just say it or dont mention that you do know them.

I agree. People need to pick and stick with it. When Dave makes a post that things will be suprising, it makes people second guess their post and ask for changes.

I like you Dave, but if the cat is out of the bag and you know the numbers, then you should just say it or dont mention that you do know them.

while what you are posting has merit, Dave has not provided any clues as to which direction one's guess should be changed...

after reading the HMM piece about HD DVD PE being the top seller for HD DVD on another forum, I was already thinking about changing my guess even before seeing Dave's post.

But if Winn (and everyone else agrees) that no changes are allowed, I can live with that as well...

66:34.

Sticking with my estimate. The strong Blu-Ray titles are more numerous and generally more recent than the HD-DVD titles, and the Toshiba and PS3 sales cancel each other out. And I think volumes might go up rather than down, as weak release weeks like this are more than offset by the holiday uptick. Absent strong releases, I think it is more of the same, thus the prediction close to the YTD number.

But I have no idea and no inside information, and I'm certainly not doing fabulously in this contest.

I was thinking about going higher, but will stand fast.

60:40

Well if it's between 55:45 and 75:25 then it's hardly a surprise for either side.

Well if it's between 55:45 and 75:25 then it's hardly a surprise for either side.

Yeah I would agree. Unless Dave's definition of surprise is a lot different. There were some sales at places here and there, volume was likely relatively low, and even DVDEmpire showed nothing but the same for last week vs the weeks before (in the 64% to 68% range for Blu-ray for the last 3 full weeks and even this week so far as well).

Did Best Buy or some place bigger like that have some deal where you got free (but scanned) titles along with Toshiba players?

Well if it's between 55:45 and 75:25 then it's hardly a surprise for either side.

Can't agree there. Anything less than 60:40 blu has got to be surprising. Are you worried?

Can't agree there. Anything less than 60:40 blu has got to be surprising.That doesn't make any sense. It's 4 BD releases (1 day-and date) against 5 HD DVD releases (2 day-and-date), where neither side had a new disc at the top.

Hmmmmm...

One thing I can say is the Planet Earth was #1 on the HD DVD side of the equation and nearly was the #1 disc for the week. DH4 beat it out by about 2% in sales.

:eek: How can that possibly be??!! :eek:

Also, the sales numbers for the HD DVD were much higher than the previous week and were greater than the BD version of the disc. Usually the two are very close to each other with the HD DVD slightly ahead, but for some reason, this week was different.

While browsing through BB last week I casually noted that the HD-DVD version of "PE" was selling for $69.99 (around what it sells for on amazon). Didn't see the price for the Blu-ray version. Wow I said to myself, these usually sell for $99 at retail. Didn't think much of it, but it sounds like alert shoppers on the prowl for a bargain (new HD-A2/A3 owners?) snatched "PE" HD-DVD early on. This has got to be one of the most surprising #1 victories by a stealth promo that absolutely nobody saw coming. It's also indicative of how small HDM sales are that an unadvertised sale for a Box Set can rocket to the top of the sales charts just like that (snaps fingers). :(

What time do we expect the numbers for this week?