Here are the %'s for for movie rentals on DVD since 2004:

2004 - 28%

2005 - 29%

2006 - 31%

2007 - 39% (YTD - to 9/30/07)

And this just appeared:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluwin112907.htm

In related news, Home Media reports that consumers spent $176 million on DVD rentals (standard-def and high-def) during Thanksgiving week, which is a 7.6 percent increase from the previous week.

2007 Data:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/07q3Overall-Small.jpg

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/07q3Rental-Small.jpg

2004 to 2006 Data:

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

Will this impact the success of HDM in the eyes of the studios?

Hey,

One thing to consider for Netflix users is if you have a HD Media player of either kind you can specify that if the movies you rent are available in the higher quality format then they send you the HD format by default.

I suppose most people with the HD players know that but it really makes it easy to rent more HD titles. And I imagine as people rent more native HD content they will crave more HD content and also sort of get used to the idea that HD movies on optical media is the next logical step for home entertainment.

I expect one of the 2 main HD formats to take off significantly to the point of become the new standard replacing to a large extent DVD's which will continue to linger anyway for a long time mostly because of the availability of the players.

-Brian

Considering that it's somewhere between difficult and impossible to rip HD movies, I would think this trend would increase studios' desire to complete the move to the new media.

One explanation of this could be that lower-priced players tend to find their way into rental-focused homes, whereas the early adopter / high-price-point hardware consume is more likely to buy & collect movies.

It does make sense that the consume who waited until DVD players were $40 is probably not likely to spend $20 per week on software. The rise of on-line renting might account for the "jump" in the past year as well.

Does anyone know if the sales of disks to rental stores such as Blockbuster are included in the sales numbers of both HD & Blu-Ray disk totals?

Renting is just a better proposition for most people. If you don't need the trophy status of a wall full of boxes, you can WATCH 10 or 12 movies for less than the price of buying just one.

I don't know about most people, but honestly, I'm not going to need to watch Knocked Up or Superman Returns more than once every few years.

I just rent now. 9 years ago I thought of buying DVDs as an investment. Now I recognize what a mistake that was and don't want to invest in a mature technology. I honestly don't think there is any way to improve upon HDM in any discernable way so hopefully this time I am buying my movies for the last time.

I definitely rent way more than I buy. I owned less than 10 DVD's before I bought HDM. I only buy HD-DVD's that I really want or that are hard to rent.

Sony is #1 in the rentals game market share? Wow. That explains a lot about BB's decision. (Note, I'm not trying to start anything.)

Warner and Paramount both have a higher percentage of buyers than they do of rentals. I wonder if Warner's SD DVD pricing is more attractive than that of other studios. Disney is a no brainer to buy since kids will watch many of their animated titles over and over again in the minivan.

Does the rental market data include VOD and PPV revenue? Lionsgate gets nearly 1/3 of their home market revenue from rentals.

Quote "Considering that it's somewhere between difficult and impossible to rip HD movies, I would think this trend would increase studios' desire to complete the move to the new media."

Another thing to consider is because the HD titles have sizes of 30 or 50 GB it makes more sense to buy the ones you want then to go through ripping and storing and archiving and all that. Maybe 30 GB of Hard Drive space can be had for cheap but then you want to be able to back up the data or have more then one copy since hard drives fail whenever they decide too.

When I get a 50GB version of a movie I like for under $15 or $20,.. I consider it a great deal.

-Brian

These kind of statistics make me worry that complete VOD is going to be the standard sooner than we think. :(

The stats from above are only for DVD (and possibly for HDM) they do not include PPV, VOD or DNL. Those get their own charts at some point.

Here are some Stats for VOD:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6476468.html

As you can see - very small market compared to DVD.

At the rate 2007 is going - it would not surprise me if rentals wound up around 42% - a very large increase over 2006.

Wow, I still can't get over how balanced the sales are in those charts. To me, that is the sign of a very healthy industry.

On topic, the increase in rentals does not surprise me at all, given the cost of buying HDM. My local Hollywood Video has been renting HDM for the same price as first runs, $4.39. To me, that's a good deal. They are also now mixing HD DVD and BD together in one big display.

Doug

The stats from above are only for DVD (and possibly for HDM) they do not include PPV, VOD or DNL. Those get their own charts at some point.

Here are some Stats for VOD:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6476468.html

As you can see - very small market compared to DVD.

At the rate 2007 is going - it would not surprise me if rentals wound up around 42% - a very large increase over 2006.

I am not sure I agree. I would suspect that the holidays would increase purchases as people buy gifts and reduce rentals as people spend more time traveling and visiting family.

I am not sure I agree. I would suspect that the holidays would increase purchases as people buy gifts and reduce rentals as people spend more time traveling and visiting family.

You saw that rentals were up almost 8%. It did not address what sales did. I suspect they went down in dollar amount because many B & M's were selling $3.00 DVD's. - first time it has gone this low.

People are trying to stretch a dollar - a rental makes sense for the consumer.

Lee,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't legitimate rental places pay more per disc because they are being bought to be rented?

How exactly are studios compensated for rentals?

There is a "mom and pop" rental place that I frequent and they say that they pay more for the DVDs because they will be renting them. They also tell me that they are not supporting HDM yet because the studios want more money to license HDM for rental; compared to the licensing cost of DVDs for rental.

Lee,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't legitimate rental places pay more per disc because they are being bought to be rented?

How exactly are studios compensated for rentals?

There is a "mom and pop" rental place that I frequent and they say that they pay more for the DVDs because they will be renting them. They also tell me that they are not supporting HDM yet because the studios want more money to license HDM for rental; compared to the licensing cost of DVDs for rental.

With DVD - they put a Revenue Sharing program in place. BBI and NF and HV get their DVD's for free. They split the take with the studio on some agreed contractual basis - same with the sale of used DVD's at these places.

HDM is too small - they do buy them and keep all the revenue for the rental place.

There are so few M & P's left - many fly under the radar.

I do know that Sony has enlisted the aid of Rentrak to expand BD rentals under a revenuing sharing program. So far they got one chain in TX.

A few months ago David Bishop of Sony was quoted as saying that rentals make up about 10% of the total revenue for BD. Back in May/June I believe.

Here are the %'s for for movie rentals on DVD since 2004:

2004 - 28%

2005 - 29%

2006 - 31%

2007 - 39% (YTD - to 9/30/07)

Will this impact the success of HDM in the eyes of the studios?I think it's possible that the reasons are economic.

If you think about it, the $20 DVD players being bought now are likely going to end up playing more rentals than bought discs.

Also, the economy is getting a little dicier lately, some more movies may be rented, potentially, than bought, as a result.

Just a couple cents worth - YMMV :)

I think it's possible that the reasons are economic.

If you think about it, the $20 DVD players being bought now are likely going to end up playing more rentals than bought discs.

Also, the economy is getting a little dicier lately, some more movies may be rented, potentially, than bought, as a result.

Just a couple cents worth - YMMV :)

Yes - a good reason for the large increase in DVD rentals.

So can we also assume that HDM will have an even higher rental ratio to sales due to it being more expensive than DVD? Or will the higher income EA's buy more movies than rent them?

FOOTNOTE - Evel Knievel died today at the age of 69.

You saw that rentals were up almost 8%. It did not address what sales did. I suspect they went down in dollar amount because many B & M's were selling $3.00 DVD's. - first time it has gone this low.

People are trying to stretch a dollar - a rental makes sense for the consumer.

So you are saying the ratio of rentals to sales will increase during the busiest consumer season of the year? Especially during a season that emphasizes time spent with family instead of in front of a tv? That I still doubt.

So you are saying the ratio of rentals to sales will increase during the busiest consumer season of the year? Especially during a season that emphasizes time spent with family instead of in front of a tv? That I still doubt.

So what you are saying is you don't believe the paragraph that HMM published?:confused:

Keep in mind rental of discs by Netflix changed the whole biz. I think netflix has just helped increase rental business period. I rent more than I used to since I don't have to hop in the car and go get them. Every B&M rental biz has been forced to change. I rent a lot of movies and buy very few. When netflix offers HD DVD for no additional charge and a player was under $200, it was a no-brainer for me.

Keep in mind rental of discs by Netflix changed the whole biz. I think netflix has just helped increase rental business period. I rent more than I used to since I don't have to hop in the car and go get them. Every B&M rental biz has been forced to change. I rent a lot of movies and buy very few. When netflix offers HD DVD for no additional charge and a player was under $200, it was a no-brainer for me.

That is a very good point, netflix has changed many things, and with BB online renting will continue to grow. With this format war, and other concerns, we may see HDM have a much higher rental percentage than DVD.

Keep in mind rental of discs by Netflix changed the whole biz. I think netflix has just helped increase rental business period. I rent more than I used to since I don't have to hop in the car and go get them. Every B&M rental biz has been forced to change. I rent a lot of movies and buy very few. When netflix offers HD DVD for no additional charge and a player was under $200, it was a no-brainer for me.

In the long run, I don't think this bodes well for physical media and hence, ownership of media.

The increasing rental trend probably indicates that people are realizing they want to "try before they buy", having been burned with stinkers they bought on media on impulse.

Also, from past experience, people are realizing the low frequency of re-watching from their physical media, though there are exceptions- children's programs for those with kids, and highly re-watchable movies like Apollo 13, Godfather, whatever your favorites are. But on average, I think most discs in home libraries sit untouched- the old 80/20 rule.

So, in the long run, this means that people will probably get used to pay-per-view streaming media like the Netflix on demand and similar offerings. The fear is, maybe the studios will prefer this method of sale, and decide physical media is too much hassle, and/or charge a premium for physical media in the future.

However, the mobility card should help save us...

That is a very good point, netflix has changed many things, and with BB online renting will continue to grow. With this format war, and other concerns, we may see HDM have a much higher rental percentage than DVD.

I agree - so how will the studios react to this? They really don't want higher rentals - it slows down the time it takes them to gain cash flow from a release. They want that cash flow in big clumps - not in small amounts over a period of time.

Will they lower the price of HDM movies as a reaction to this?

I agree - so how will the studios react to this? They really don't want higher rentals - it slows down the time it takes them to gain cash flow from a release. They want that cash flow in big clumps - not in small amounts over a period of time.

Will they lower the price of HDM movies as a reaction to this?

Perhaps, but not until they squeeze the last drop out of DVD, and that could be a few more years.

Renting is just a better proposition for most people. If you don't need the trophy status of a wall full of boxes, you can WATCH 10 or 12 movies for less than the price of buying just one.

I don't know about most people, but honestly, I'm not going to need to watch Knocked Up or Superman Returns more than once every few years.

Yup, Im with ya. I cant beleive the number of people that just blindly order or pre-order every freegin title no matter what. Crazy. And yeah...Knocked Up? It was barely good enough to rent let alone dump $25 bucks on!

Netflix = Saves me BIG money and I get all the HD titles I want to see.

Perhaps, but not until they squeeze the last drop out of DVD, and that could be a few more years.

But look at the OP. 2007 will be a HUGE jump in the rental % for DVD compared to the previous years. We have already seen articles stating that due to the decline in DVD sales - they are losing money on movies - they NEED that money to stay in the Black.

I believe it was Lionsgate - they had their best Q3 ever - and they lost money doing it.

If they do nothing - the volume of Red Ink just gets larger - lowering profits and raising costs just accelerates this.

It is evident that they have priced HDM from their old models from LD. They are the exact same pricing - $39.99 for a movie. The only thing they did was drop the price on a Catalog title by $10 to $29.99.

Sure Die Hard 4 sold 100K and SPM3 and Transformers and others - well what about the other 990 titles? How are they doing?

But look at the OP. 2007 will be a HUGE jump in the rental % for DVD compared to the previous years. We have already seen articles stating that due to the decline in DVD sales - they are losing money on movies - they NEED that money to stay in the Black.

I believe it was Lionsgate - they had their best Q3 ever - and they lost money doing it.

If they do nothing - the volume of Red Ink just gets larger - lowering profits and raising costs just accelerates this.

It is evident that they have priced HDM from their old models from LD. They are the exact same pricing - $39.99 for a movie. The only thing they did was drop the price on a Catalog title by $10 to $29.99.

Sure Die Hard 4 sold 100K and SPM3 and Transformers and others - well what about the other 990 titles? How are they doing?

Maybe this is the trend, Lee. Due to the popularity of BB and Netflix, renting may just get so strong that the studios will have to re-evaluate their business models. Perhaps they can adjust it so their revenue will come more from renting, and less from buying. If this does become the case, it spells bad things to those who want to own their media, and have a good selection of it to buy.

Maybe this is the trend, Lee. Due to the popularity of BB and Netflix, renting may just get so strong that the studios will have to re-evaluate their business models. Perhaps they can adjust it so their revenue will come more from renting, and less from buying. If this does become the case, it spells bad things to those who want to own their media, and have a good selection of it to buy.

No "Maybe" about it - it IS the trend. So yes they will have to adjust. No more $150 to $200 million budget movies. They said this after T2 when Camerron went over $200 million. But they are now doing it again. Over 500 movies per year come out of Hollywood.

Keep in mind the formula for a movie making money - 2.5X the production cost. Advertising alone is a 100% cost. The bigger the budget - the more advertising they do. Add to this the fact that the BO only provides 25% of a movie's revenue.

And the "cherry on top" is the terrible USA Economy. How long ago was it that the US dollar was worth 30% more than the Canadian dollar? Now the Canadian dollar is equal to the US dollar.

And the "cherry on top" is the terrible USA Economy. How long ago was it that the US dollar was worth 30% more than the Canadian dollar? Now the Canadian dollar is equal to the US dollar.

So, like the housing bubble and the stock market bubble before it, it appears the DVD bubble is bursting... :(

M If this does become the case, it spells bad things to those who want to own their media, and have a good selection of it to buy.

I think fear of losing media ownership and/or control is a big concern for a lot of AV-enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, fear appears to be a common theme in AV in recent years.

So, like the housing bubble and the stock market bubble before it, it appears the DVD bubble is bursting... :(

That bubble burst back in 2005 - 2 years ago. And Hollywood has had 2 years to deal with it - so what have they done? IMO - nothing.

And the "cherry on top" is the terrible USA Economy. How long ago was it that the US dollar was worth 30% more than the Canadian dollar? Now the Canadian dollar is equal to the US dollar.

Canada hasn't run a deficit for more than a decade and has been paying down debt for that amount of time as well! What has the U.S. been doing for the last 8 years! Oil is close to $100 U.S. a barrel. Canada is the United States single largest supplier of oil, period = large number of U.S. dollars. :D

Cheers,

Grant

So what you are saying is you don't believe the paragraph that HMM published?:confused:

TG aint Xmas.

HMM did not prognosticate for December.

TG aint Xmas.

HMM did not prognosticate for December.

No - they reported the facts from Thanksgiving. That is what I was discussing. We will have to wait for Xmas and we both know there will be MANY DVD's and HDM's under the tree for people to watch movies from.

No "Maybe" about it - it IS the trend. So yes they will have to adjust. No more $150 to $200 million budget movies. They said this after T2 when Camerron went over $200 million. But they are now doing it again. Over 500 movies per year come out of Hollywood.

Keep in mind the formula for a movie making money - 2.5X the production cost. Advertising alone is a 100% cost. The bigger the budget - the more advertising they do. Add to this the fact that the BO only provides 25% of a movie's revenue.

And the "cherry on top" is the terrible USA Economy. How long ago was it that the US dollar was worth 30% more than the Canadian dollar? Now the Canadian dollar is equal to the US dollar.

Agreed, they either need to control costs or think of some way to get more revenue out of the rental market. I would imagine profit from a rental is an extremely small percentage of what it is for a sale. Maybe offer a discounted sale immediately after a rental?

The economy is cyclical, so that will have short term effects.

The question of the decade: How to make blockbuster movies with low budgets? ;)

It scares me as well that ownership looks very threatened. Who can blame people that only want to pay $8.99 for 10 movies a month? That is the dream scenario for the average consumer. :(

I think part of the issue is that huge corporations are the only ones capable of making these kinds of investments. Unfortunately, huge corporations move slowly and do not take risks. They need some out of box solutions to stem the hemorrhaging of the cheap internet rental market.

All these numbers are really about DVD. Have any numbers been released that show the percentage of rentals for HDM? It seems that there are two extreme behaviors on these AVS forums -- those that buy everything in sight or available for pre-order and those that only rent. I am very much in the middle. I occasionally buy sight unseen, but more often than not I evaluate the movie via NetFlix before dropping more bucks.

All these numbers are really about DVD. Have any numbers been released that show the percentage of rentals for HDM? It seems that there are two extreme behaviors on these AVS forums -- those that buy everything in sight or available for pre-order and those that only rent. I am very much in the middle. I occasionally buy sight unseen, but more often than not I evaluate the movie via NetFlix before dropping more bucks.

The market is too small to evaluate. But some form of common sense can be applied from DVD to HDM. They are literally the same - only difference is "do you have an HDTV to begin with." But we have pricey software with no true bargins (like $5.00 or $7.50 priced movies) And HDM is not the only way to get HD. Add to that the formula for selling HDTV's - Sports and Movies . . . no sports with HDM.

Yes - a good reason for the large increase in DVD rentals.

So can we also assume that HDM will have an even higher rental ratio to sales due to it being more expensive than DVD? Or will the higher income EA's buy more movies than rent them?

FOOTNOTE - Evel Knievel died today at the age of 69.I feel that the average HDM (standalone) owner have a higher buy-vs-rent ratio than the average DVD owner, due to the higher price of HDM players "pre-qualifying" more well-heeled customers. Note that I don't want to specualte on the game machine players, as there may be a higher rental rate there.

He had a good run, did Evel. Who would have thought he would die of old age!

I feel that the average HDM (standalone) owner have a higher buy-vs-rent ratio than the average DVD owner, due to the higher price of HDM players "pre-qualifying" more well-heeled customers. Note that I don't want to specualte on the game machine players, as there may be a higher rental rate there.

So who is buying HDM? Well we know they have to have an HDTV. But were they a collector of DVD's? Did they have LD? Are they just now building their first collection?

I jsut can't see that HDM is going to be that much different than DVD when it comes to habits. But we do know catelog titles don't sell. We have proof of that. Are they being rented instead?

He had a good run, did Evel. Who would have thought he would die of old age!

Well he proved everyone wrong didn't he? Normally a Cat has nine lives - Evel had 12? 15?

Always enjoyed the autobrography movie with George Hamilton. Unfortunately Evel never got the chance to fill the prophecy . . .

"And my death will be glorious" - last line of the film.

So who is buying HDM? Well we know they have to have an HDTV. But were they a collector of DVD's? Did they have LD? Are they just now building their first collection?

I jsut can't see that HDM is going to be that much different than DVD when it comes to habits. But we do know catelog titles don't sell. We have proof of that. Are they being rented instead?



Could it be that most of the market is DVD collectors and catalog does not sell because they are already owned and people are hesitant to DD? Or maybe it's the cost of the catalog titles that turn people off? People will buy at $10 but not $20?

If we knew, we could make big salaries consulting at the studios! :cool:

Could it be that most of the market is DVD collectors and catalog does not sell because they are already owned and people are hesitant to DD? Or maybe it's the cost of the catalog titles that turn people off? People will buy at $10 but not $20?

If we knew, we could make big salaries consulting at the studios! :cool:

But that's the whole point. Sales versus rentals. That is what this thread is about. We know for a fact that DVD rentals are skyrocketing, while sales are declining.

So what about HDM? We have no data whatsoever. We can only discuss it as it relates to DVD. . . . a movie on a disc.

We have run poll after poll and the smallest number is always . . "I only buy" HDM. Can we extrapolate from this?

Maybe HDM is even higher than DVD (as far as the ratio) because we know the sales are very small.