This isn't a "Do you think HDM will remain a niche format?" thread.

A lot of us AVS-types really want the opportunity to watch movies in HDmedia...however it plays out that's what we want.

Does anyone think (or know) whether HDM sales have reached the point that, even if it's not adopted by the masses, there has been enough interest for studies to keep producing HDM for a "niche" market?

I like the idea of mass adoption insofar as it would likely mean a much bigger catalogue available of movies on HDM. But if I have to be part of a niche market so be it...as long as the studies have some reason to keep releasing HDM.

Wuddya think?

HDM will always be a niche. There are just going to be too many other formats for it to be dominant.

Even the PS3 and 360 folks stream video now some of the time.

The best HDM players in the future will be multi-format that can stream video from home PCs and the internet.

It's been said that Sony subsidizes the cost for BD replication, but not confirmed to my knowledge. That may be a big factor for BDs future. If Sony was to stop that, many studios may balk at the higher production cost, and compared to SD-DVD, abysmal sales.

Same thing has been said and unconfirmed about Toshiba and HDDVD.

Until real figures on the profit of HDM sales are released to the public, and everything about the speculation of different kinds of subsidizing gets ironed out, all we can do is banter and argue about it here.

As for me? I hope it is here to stay.

(and gets a little cheaper.)

I'd bet not yet, and really I hate to say so. However, there are only so many HDTVs out there, and I think people forget that. As their number grows the HDM market will also grow.

I'd bet not yet, and really I hate to say so. However, there are only so many HDTVs out there, and I think people forget that. As their number grows the HDM market will also grow.

Not only are there only so many HDTVs, but most are only 768p/720p or under 30 inches.

Let's face it HDM does not have much benefit for most HDTVs (which are in the minority to begin with).

I think HDM is still growing. I can imagine it penetrating about 20% of the current DVD market over the next few years and holding steady until something else comes along. I just can't imagine HDM expanding beyond 20%.

Not only are there only so many HDTVs, but most are only 768p/720p or under 30 inches.

Let's face it HDM does not have much benefit for most HDTVs (which are in the minority to begin with).

Ouch.... HD media looks fantastic on a 720/768 TV. Trust me! If anything, 1080p sets being rammed down everyones throat has been a BIG turnoff due to obnoxious prices for those TVs with BARELY TRIVIAL PQ gains if any gains at all. Id also think that the number of 40" - 50" sets is going up as prices come down and people get attracted to the larger screen sizes.

Please dont play the "only with 6 foot screens and 1080p is HD worth it" card. That line of thinking will kill this little hobby REALLY fast. It would be micro-niche at that point meaning that like 1 in 1 billion people would support it. Not good for us follks!

OK, rant over.... :D

its going to grow but i dont see it ever getting to the level where dvd is now.... too many other options are going to come before it really gets that foothold.

and another huge drawback to hdm is they require an upfront purchase to even think about hdm.... most people dont even have hdtv's yet so until they do hdm doesnt even have a chance to overtake dvd.

its going to grow but i dont see it ever getting to the level where dvd is now....

Who cares?

DVD is the single most succesful home entertainment format.

I think it's rash to judge HDM on the basis of whether or not it does as well as DVD.

BTW, the OP's question is one I'd like to see answered, too.

What are weekly software sales like compared to LaserDisc at its peak?

Steve W

Who cares?

DVD is the single most succesful home entertainment format.

I think it's rash to judge HDM on the basis of whether or not it does as well as DVD.

BTW, the OP's question is one I'd like to see answered, too.

What are weekly software sales like compared to LaserDisc at its peak?

Steve W

The average title was pressed in runs of 10,000 discs.

Is the market big enough to support it?

No - it isn't. Not when 95% of BD players are PS3's and titles like 2001 sell about 3000 on each format. The run IMO has to be about 15,000 per title for the studio to make some kind of profit.

The average DVD title sells less than 10% of the total number of players in the wild - about 140 million +. And HDM is doing the same thing. People don't change their buying habits just because of an increase of resolution.

Then add the fact that the rental % is increasing while th sale % is decreasing. THAT is not good at all.

But neither format is going to die in the next 12 months and 12 months from now - that will do it. There will be enough players to support a niche - which is HDM plain and simple.

Not only are there only so many HDTVs, but most are only 768p/720p or under 30 inches.

Let's face it HDM does not have much benefit for most HDTVs (which are in the minority to begin with).

The average TV size is 32 inches among HDTV owners and there are about 25 million of them right now.

HDM will replace DVD...eventually. First a single format needs to take over, then SLOWLY it will replace DVD.

HDM will replace DVD...eventually. First a single format needs to take over, then SLOWLY it will replace DVD.

But that is the problem . . . time. HDM is running out of time. And though DVD sales are declining- it will hit a plateau.

I disagree, HDM has time. Other tech like download & HD vod are going to take awhile to become bigger than a physical disc. Besides, I think people still like physical media.

HDM will replace DVD...eventually. First a single format needs to take over, then SLOWLY it will replace DVD.

I disagree, not at the rate technology is moving these days. VCR's have been mainstream for what, 20 yrs or more? People are still using these. DVD has leveled out and started slipping...in 10 yrs. I doubt DVD has another 10 years left. HDM probably has substantially less time IMO, perhaps another 5 years. To address the OP's question, right now, nope, it's not a niche yet. It will be though, and probably always will.

No - it isn't. Not when 95% of BD players are PS3's and titles like 2001 sell about 3000 on each format.
.

I've been wondering what the breakdown of BD players was re: PS3's vs non-PS3 BD players.

Is there a reliable published source for BD and HDDVD set top player installed base numbers? I see lots of links to good HDM disc sales numbers, but it seems up to date HDM set top player data is harder to come by.

I've been wondering what the breakdown of BD players was re: PS3's vs non-PS3 BD players.

Is there a reliable published source for BD and HDDVD set top player installed base numbers? I see lots of links to good HDM disc sales numbers, but it seems up to date HDM set top player data is harder to come by.

The link is in one of the threads. (Try the Insiders - Questions only thread - I posted it there a few pages back) There are approx 2.6 million PS3's in the USA. There are less than 200,000 BD SAL's with Sony saying they just sold their 100,000th S300

So it is really more like 92% and not 95% if you want to split hairs.

And Video Business just ran a BLOG asking the BDA to tell us the sales (not shipped) status of BD SAL's - in reaction to the HD DVD PG's announcement that HD players have hit 750K.

It will be a niche IMO.

But neither format is going to die in the next 12 months and 12 months from now - that will do it. There will be enough players to support a niche - which is HDM plain and simple.

I believe that this is the bottom line. The problem is who is supporting the niche. As I said in another thread, I believe the studios finding a way to resell their catalog is what motivates them to release in HDM. New releases will probably continue to sell well on SD DVD for a while yet but SD DVD sales are going to drop like a rock since the catlog has been tapped for the most part. The problem is is so many of those buying HDM aren't the people who have supported the catalog in the past. The demographic has shifted thus the old model ,at least at this juncture , doesn't apply.

Art

I believe that this is the bottom line. The problem is who is supporting the niche. As I said in another thread, I believe the studios finding a way to resell their catalog is what motivates them to release in HDM. New releases will probably continue to sell well on SD DVD for a while yet but SD DVD sales are going to drop like a rock since the catlog has been tapped for the most part. The problem is is so many of those buying HDM aren't the people who have supported the catalog in the past. The demographic has shifted thus the old model ,at least at this juncture , doesn't apply.

Art

Art:

You were an LD fan right? Do you really want to rebuy a title for the 3rd time?

Let's see - $40 for the LD, $30 for the DVD - now another $30 for the HDM - a total of $100 to watch the same movie . . . . ?

The issue is the "platform" that HDM is built on - an evolutionary format that was released almost 8 years after the release of HDTV. It is so late to the HD party that all it really has is a chance to pick up the scraps left behind.

The fact that you not only need an HDTV, but one that is bigger than 32" is a major drawback. So yes - the old model really does not apply just for this simple fact.

laserdisc was a successful niche because people were willing to pay the $ studios needed to make money on low volume sales.

(i think the criterion collection ld of some top movies was $99 msrp? one episode of a tv series was around $19?)

how much does it cost to author a top hdm title compared to a top ld title in its day ... adjusted for current $?

- restoration to allow top 1080p transfer
- transfer for video and multiple audio tracks.
- advanced features (PiP, fancy menus, web content, games, etc.)
- disk organization
- additional package designs

if a studio can't make money on catalog titles, where does the money come from for replacing all the dvd production facilities with bd facilities? why not just stick with dvd if you can only sell day/date releases anyway?

imo the only application for hdm at the moment is really for ps3 game software.

Art:

You were an LD fan right? Do you really want to rebuy a title for the 3rd time?



Well, if I sat dowen I bet I could come up with a few hundred. For me all week I look foward to my few hours in my theater on the weekend. I'd love to have a nice list of HDM to pick from but the less than ten good films released this year are not going to hold me for long.

For me without catalog I would be looking for another activity other than this one.

Art

Well, if I sat dowen I bet I could come up with a few hundred. For me all week I look foward to my few hours in my theater on the weekend. I'd love to have a nice list of HDM to pick from but the less than ten good films released this year are not going to hold me for long.

For me without catalog I would be looking for another activity other than this one.

Art

So you have no other source of HD in your fantastic theater? No HD CBL or HD SAT?

Well, if I sat dowen I bet I could come up with a few hundred. For me all week I look foward to my few hours in my theater on the weekend. I'd love to have a nice list of HDM to pick from but the less than ten good films released this year are not going to hold me for long.

For me without catalog I would be looking for another activity other than this one.

Art

this is exactly the way i feel about hdm. i want to see old movies restored. also, love what they did with st:tos.

i am starting to shift my time back to other hobbies.

laserdisc was a successful niche because people were willing to pay the $ studios needed to make money on low volume sales.

(i think the criterion collection ld of some top movies was $99 msrp? one episode of a tv series was around $19?)

how much does it cost to author a top hdm title compared to a top ld title in its day ... adjusted for current $?

- restoration to allow top 1080p transfer
- transfer for video and multiple audio tracks.
- advanced features (PiP, fancy menus, web content, games, etc.)
- disk organization
- additional package designs

if a studio can't make money on catalog titles, where does the money come from for replacing all the dvd production facilities with bd facilities? why not just stick with dvd if you can only sell day/date releases anyway?

imo the only application for hdm at the moment is really for ps3 game software.



Just a small point. A new high def master is not needed for just a few thousand HD DVDs or BDs.

I don't doubt for a second that the recent high def release of The Wild Bunch used the same master as the recent special edition SD DVD, which would have been made even if HD DVD & BD hadn't launched.

Even if HDM were to die, every time a film is re-visited/re-mastered for SD DVD, or for that matter a TV release, a new high def master will be struck.

I saw a high def version of Fletch on SKY HD recently, and it looked terrific!

Steve W

Just a small point. A new high def master is not needed for just a few thousand HD DVDs or BDs.

I don't doubt for a second that the recent high def release of The Wild Bunch used the same master as the recent special edition SD DVD, which would have been made even if HD DVD & BD hadn't launched.

Even if HDM were to die, every time a film is re-visited/re-mastered for SD DVD, or for that matter a TV release, a new high def master will be struck.

I saw a high def version of Fletch on SKY HD recently, and it looked terrific!

Steve W

catalog titles get shafted due to not being restored properly. if they are not restored, imo not much point in replacing the version i already have.

hdm reveals all the flaws in the previous work.

I think HDM will replace DVDs, simply because the studios are obsessed with DRM and copy protection.

Unless they start selling downloaded movies for cheap (I'm talking under $4), and until the delivery medium is fast enough, people are still going to want physical media. Those purchasing media are still going to want it in their hands, but they're also going to want it to be portable.

That is where I see blu-ray and HD-DVD failing -- it's innability to be portable.

I'm not talking car players, I'm talking phones, portable .mp3/video players, etc.

I see the future of video playback on a flash-type medium, utilizing a screen thin enough to be folded like a piece of paper. You will purchase the video paper with an individual movie on it. This paper could also be plugged into a home theater unit as well.

But that's a ways out yet.

I think HDM will replace DVDs, simply because the studios are obsessed with DRM and copy protection.

Unless they start selling downloaded movies for cheap (I'm talking under $4), and until the delivery medium is fast enough, people are still going to want physical media. Those purchasing media are still going to want it in their hands, but they're also going to want it to be portable.

That is where I see blu-ray and HD-DVD failing -- it's innability to be portable.

I'm not talking car players, I'm talking phones, portable .mp3/video players, etc.

I see the future of video playback on a flash-type medium, utilizing a screen thin enough to be folded like a piece of paper. You will purchase the video paper with an individual movie on it. This paper could also be plugged into a home theater unit as well.

But that's a ways out yet.

efficient encodes and mmc make hdm content about as portable as it can get. (in absence of mmc, cracked drm is good enough).

studios want drm, consumers are buying portability.... sd dvd wins.

My friend who is a Dir. of marketing for a major studio believes that HDM wil help improve DVD sales. Given that HD Players play both DVD and HDM, people will buy most titles on DVD and collectibles on HDM. Hence why it is important for HDM players to fall in price to DVD player levels. Over time, HDM will take a larger piece of the pie. But this particular studio is looking at a 2 tier market. General DVD and premium HDM. This particular studio has an interest in DVD since they get DVD royalties from any DVD sold, so other studios may have other strategies. But, I'd say we are already at niche status.

Just in case many have forgotten - 3 months ago to the day:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T1.jpg
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T2.jpg

Just in case many have forgotten - 3 months ago to the day:


I wonder if the studios use other measures, such as the number of discs sold per installed base of players (of any type, i.e. PS3, PC drives, etc)? In other words, the number of discs sold expressed as a percentage of installed players?

Right now, from where I sit, HDM (BD and HD DVD) are miles ahead of where LD ever was in its entire history. I can walk into any local BB, Future Shop or Wal-Mart and buy it. I could never buy LD locally where I am; however, I could rent it, but it was a 1 1/2 hour round trip for me to do so.

Cheers,

Grant

The fact is that we are stuck with DVD. HDM will never have all of the discs/titles that DVD has. We as enthusiasts are probably better off if HDM stays at LD status. It means that the discs prices will stay high, but the quality and the packages will be better.

Art:

You were an LD fan right? Do you really want to rebuy a title for the 3rd time?

Let's see - $40 for the LD, $30 for the DVD - now another $30 for the HDM - a total of $100 to watch the same movie . . . . ?

The issue is the "platform" that HDM is built on - an evolutionary format that was released almost 8 years after the release of HDTV. It is so late to the HD party that all it really has is a chance to pick up the scraps left behind.

The fact that you not only need an HDTV, but one that is bigger than 32" is a major drawback. So yes - the old model really does not apply just for this simple fact.

While I agree with much of what you said, I think HDM was early to the party, not late. In the next 5 years, when most people actually own HDTV, then it will be HDM's time to shine... *if* there is a unified format by then (which I have no doubt there will be).

While I agree with much of what you said, I think HDM was early to the party, not late. In the next 5 years, when most people actually own HDTV, then it will be HDM's time to shine... *if* there is a unified format by then (which I have no doubt there will be).

Then we will need a real "next gen" format. 2160p, 12 bit color, JPG2000, 3D, etc. PResent HDM is nice, but it's just the same crap with a slightly different resolution.

Just in case many have forgotten - 3 months ago to the day:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T1.jpg
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T2.jpg


And Missouri lost last night but what does that have to do with the topic?

Art

And Missouri lost last night but what does that have to do with the topic?

Art

Look at the title of the thread Art - now look at the sales of Paramount titles 3 months ago.

Any lightbulb going off over your head?

550 copies of a movie? 1000 copies?

How much money do you people think the studio makes on a title anyways?

And Missouri lost last night but what does that have to do with the topic?

Art

Nothing, but it tells me a *lot* about the price of tea in China :D

I really regret missing your open house/demo this year, but I was lazy in checking the HT Meets area and missed it...

For me without catalog I would be looking for another activity other than this one.

Art

Playing the role of HT therapist, I think you're experiencing symptoms of having achieved the pinnacle of the HT hobby, having perfected a G90 stack and now your current DLP 3-chipper, with top tier accouterments (processors, screen, theater design, etc). Kinda like a world-class mountain climber who's done all the world's top mountains on all the continents- where else is there to go?

Granted, a lot of us wouldn't mind having your "problem", but I've seen this affliction in most hobbies I've been involved in- you achieve, learn most of the domain, and mature along the way.

Just hope you can keep having fun...

Playing the role of HT therapist, I think you're experiencing symptoms of having achieved the pinnacle of the HT hobby, having perfected a G90 stack and now your current DLP 3-chipper, with top tier accouterments (processors, screen, theater design, etc). Kinda like a world-class mountain climber who's done all the world's top mountains on all the continents- where else is there to go?

Granted, a lot of us wouldn't mind having your "problem", but I've seen this affliction in most hobbies I've been involved in- you achieve, learn most of the domain, and mature along the way.

Just hope you can keep having fun...

Well ,that is a very nice compliment thanks ! For me, the hobby has two legs, one is AV gear the other is using it. Using it requires lots of movies that I would like and if it's just CGI and LFE I will bore.

The fact is that we are stuck with DVD. HDM will never have all of the discs/titles that DVD has.

That is one of the things that has influenced how I'm setting up my first projection-based home theater. I'm a movie lover first and for quite a long time it looks like we'll be stuck with DVD for the majority of titles, including old catalogue titles.

For this reason I am going with a variable image size set up using 4 way masking to change screen size. That way I can adjust the image size to the limitations of the source material. If I am dealing with a lower quality SD transfer then I don't have to suffer with seeing all it's imperfections blown up huge to the same size as my good HD media - I can use an appropriate image size to maintain a satisfying level of image quality.

If everything were turning HDM very soon I probably wouldn't bother with this. And I'm not one of those (amazingly plentiful) folks who allow HDM to drive their choice of content "If it's not on HD I won't watch it." I prefer the content to drive my choices.

First a single format needs to take over, then SLOWLY it will replace DVD.

Just in case many have forgotten - 3 months ago to the day:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T1.jpg
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/PR-T2.jpg
All this shows is that on a title by title basis the sales gap between the formats was negligible.

The fact is that we are stuck with DVD. HDM will never have all of the discs/titles that DVD has. We as enthusiasts are probably better off if HDM stays at LD status. It means that the discs prices will stay high, but the quality and the packages will be better.
Good point. I want HDM to be successful enough the studios can support a sustainable business model, but not so successful that the studios lose focus.

How many copies at what price do the studios need to sell to have a sustainable business.

All this shows is that on a title by title basis the sales gap between the formats was negligible.

Then you missed the point Plaz (has anyone ever said you look like a young Stallone?) - the point is the quantities of each title.

Good point. I want HDM to be successful enough the studios can support a sustainable business model, but not so successful that the studios lose focus.

How many copies at what price do the studios need to sell to have a sustainable business.

IF . . . HDM is successful . . we could see:

1. CIH releases
2. 3D HD releases
3. Full Blown restorations on a regular basis
4. Multi Movie releases like Blade Runner (Think; Brazil or Dune)

Does anyone here think that a studio makes more than $5 to $7 per copy they sell?

Then you missed the point Plaz (has anyone ever said you look like a young Stallone?) - the point is the quantities of each title.

It's those nasty format war goggles he has... ;)

Lee, my point was that given the negligible gap and low volumes, studios are not ready to promote HDM over DVD. so a DVD + HDM (HD DVD) from the same infrastructure is what Paramount went with (without bringing up the paymnt issue). So, in a nutshell, yes. for Paramount the near future (for which their management gets compensated for), HDM is a niche. Also, one other studio I know of is thinking on the same lines. Universal started out with that in mind. For Disney, Fox and Sony I am assuming it was planned to be a clean break away from DVD where in a few years there would be BD only. So, in a way, the BD exclusives are NOT assuming HDM as a niche market, while HD DVD backers see a much longer transition and coexistece of DVD and HDM for several years.

In countries like India, DVD is now coming into its own, replacing VCD in many parts of the country!

I can't imagine HDM not taking over at some point. More and more people are buying fancy HD sets and sooner or later they're going to wonder what those "HD discs" are all about. They'll realize movies look great just like the sports they love to watch in HD on cable. The format war has just delayed it, but I think it still has a big chance of going head to head with SD DVD one day.

Lee, my point was that given the negligible gap and low volumes, studios are not ready to promote HDM over DVD. so a DVD + HDM (HD DVD) from the same infrastructure is what Paramount went with (without bringing up the paymnt issue). So, in a nutshell, yes. for Paramount the near future (for which their management gets compensated for), HDM is a niche. Also, one other studio I know of is thinking on the same lines. Universal started out with that in mind. For Disney, Fox and Sony I am assuming it was planned to be a clean break away from DVD where in a few years there would be BD only. So, in a way, the BD exclusives are NOT assuming HDM as a niche market, while HD DVD backers see a much longer transition and coexistece of DVD and HDM for several years.

In countries like India, DVD is now coming into its own, replacing VCD in many parts of the country!

You are preaching to the choir Plaz;)

One needs to replace - while the other wants to integrate - simple as that.

And once again - the OP asked a question - the title of the thread. So for the appropo title of "Failure To Launch" selling less than 1000 copies combined - is that enough to make that title profitable? I don't think so. Not with what it costs to release an HDM title. Especially on both formats. It would be bad enough for a single format.

So if you want to show how "backwards" or "low tech" some countries are - why not compare Japan to the USA - then you will see how backwards/low tech WE are.:o

For Disney, Fox and Sony I am assuming it was planned to be a clean break away from DVD where in a few years there would be BD only.

That is a pretty big assumption.

So you are assuming that the HD DVD format studios are smart and the Blu Ray studios are stupid. Is that what you are trying to say? That is such an un biased remark.:D

I do agree that the hd dvd/dvd format is the secret weapon that hasn't been utilized correctly by the hd dvd consortium (barring any playing problems). If I was them, I would just release combos and get rid of dvd's all together. It would not cost a lot more, maybe .50 per disc. Pass that on to the consumer and boom, you have an emerging format.

Now it didn't shake out to well for Star Trek TOS though.....

HDM will never have all of the discs/titles that DVD has. We as enthusiasts are probably better off if HDM stays at LD status. It means that the discs prices will stay high, but the quality and the packages will be better.Yeah we will be stuck with SDTV... oh wait. DVD player hardwares don't get cheaper infinitely due to its mechanical parts, in fact it's already at the rock bottom. At some point the price difference between DVD and BD/HD DVD players will become negligible for the mass market - the player price of HD DVD is already reaching that point, if HD DVD can't gain public support at this point it just shows the momentum of HD DVD itself and not HDM overall.

the player price of HD DVD is already reaching that point, if HD DVD can't gain public support at this point it just shows the momentum of HD DVD itself and not HDM overall.

I think that the price of both Blu Ray and HD DVD can come down another 50% relatively easy.

With HD DVD supposedly selling 250,000 players in a matter of weeks and not being able to narrow nielson gap is pretty scary for hd dvd. IMO

I think that the price of both Blu Ray and HD DVD can come down another 50% relatively easy.

With HD DVD supposedly selling 250,000 players in a matter of weeks and not being able to narrow nielson gap is pretty scary for hd dvd. IMO

Not really. I tried to make this point earlier.

When you consider that each A3 or Venturer sold comes with 2 movies in the box already, PLUS the fact people send away for movies, PLUS the fact that not everyplace checks into Nielsen, AND on top of that the gap in numbers continues to only be mere thousands, there is no scary anything.

The fact is that when you get your player home, you already have media to put in it and use. So what is the incentive to purchase a movie that very day you bought the player?

Case in point, I bought an A3 for my parents, which I will be giving them on Tuesday night for Chanukah. So right there you have 1 HD DVD player sale. I did not however buy them a movie to go with it because it already has two for them to start with. So that's a discrepancy between player sold and disc sold for the Nielsen tally.

I'm sure there are a lot of sales that are Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanza, etc: gifts that haven't even been opened yet.

IMO those that are using this Black Friday player sale, and the sale before it, to somehow once again doom HD DVD because disc sales didn't instantly go through the roof are doing so because it's the only way they can downplay the amount of HD DVD players out there, and try to spin any positive factor from the fact that despite all the Blu-ray PR, HD DVD players are still selling.

If we are in March-April, and disc sales are still flat, then we can talk about whether the holiday player sales failed. Until then, I'll take a page from the BDA in 2006.........just wait and see.

I bought an LD lot off of ebay a while back.
I own an EVD player from China.
I will probley buy a HD-VDM at some point.

I just like gadgets that make sound and noise:)

First a single format needs to take over, then SLOWLY it will replace DVD.

+1. A single format would be a tipping point and until the dueling format thing ends, we're looking at stunted sales and low adoption. But with the PS3 and what appears to be Blu-Ray success in Japan and other places, Blu-Ray is already likley to be around for a while, even if niche.

Other than watching HD on cable or satellite if watching movies in hi def is going to be adopted by masses and get out of the niche market it's gotta be on a disc.

A niche market can't hold this up. The answer is no.
It's too expensive to keep making discs that only sell a few thousand. If they can't make it work this way they'll move to trying to get you to get it online.

The problem with this is ,has anyone here downloaded some hd content yet? Go check out some movie trailers in hd. Chances are this is going to take awhile on your home broadband connection. People can't afford a monster connection in their homes and the providers will not drop their prices to accomadate, Most likely rather than having to wait or watch their streaming movie freeze, they will just go back to dvd.

So dvd could stay around for a long time.

The problem is piracy. Which is why I think streaming has been such an embraced idea.
They are already downloading movies so why not charge them for it? Simple.
These pirates don't mind waiting for these movies to download, becasue they are getting them for free.

Those of us who don't steal our movies are going to want to play them right away and they better not feeze for 5 mins while the stream catches up because we paid for it.

I only mention this because someone mentioned people streaming movies on their xbox...

I can see where this is going. If you want more evidence that Elvis is leaving the building...just keep an eye out for references to streaming hd content that are made in the coming weeks.

All this shows is that on a title by title basis the sales gap between the formats was negligible.

Out of: 240665 discs
Blu ray sold 46407 more. Is my math right? I suck at math. That's 48% more correct?

Depends on what your definition of negligible is.

Ehhh, I shouldn't even be talking about sales.
But, of course someone had to open the can! lol!

Here we go! Lets just wipe the chalkboard clean before we get ourselves in a heap O trouble?

Out of: 240665 discs
Blu ray sold 46407 more. Is my math right? I suck at math. That's 48% more correct?

Depends on what your definition of negligible is.

Ehhh, I shouldn't even be talking about sales.
But, of course someone had to open the can! lol!

Here we go! Lets just wipe the chalkboard clean before we get ourselves in a heap O trouble?
Did you miss the title by title part of the statement?

FWIW, after one year of release, if your gap is 48K, it is negligible. Whatever, your definition of negligible is. There are 33 titles on the list so the average difference in sales is 1450 disks sold per title! In other words BD sold an average of 1450 more disks for each movie. So, if Paramount is making $20 revenue per disk, that works out to $29,000, per movie. If you are telling us that a studio would consider a gap of $29,000 per movie to be significant, then that is another matter :)

While I agree that discussing economics on AVS is frowned upon, even if it happens to be logically sound. However, there is a Nobel Prize for economic sciences and hence, I feel it is appropriate to talk about economics on AVS (since there isn't an award for AV Sciences yet) :)

Yeah we will be stuck with SDTV... oh wait. DVD player hardwares don't get cheaper infinitely due to its mechanical parts, in fact it's already at the rock bottom. At some point the price difference between DVD and BD/HD DVD players will become negligible for the mass market - the player price of HD DVD is already reaching that point, if HD DVD can't gain public support at this point it just shows the momentum of HD DVD itself and not HDM overall.

If you're going to quote someone, address their post.

When the total is 240,000 I think 48k is pretty darn big!

It is appropriate to talk about such economics but I think AVS has it's appropriate places on here ;)

You think it's negligible, I think it's pretty big.
We agree the total is pretty shabby.

No harm, no foul.

We can move on.

I think that the price of both Blu Ray and HD DVD can come down another 50% relatively easy.

With HD DVD supposedly selling 250,000 players in a matter of weeks and not being able to narrow nielson gap is pretty scary for hd dvd. IMO
Didn't BD sell a ton more PS3 as well during this period. I'd say with PS3 now firing on all cylinders, with still relatively few games and BD not being able to pull away in terms of Neilsen ratios (which some here hold to be very dear, but that is another matter :)), isn't that scary for the BDA?

Since you were being rhetorical :)

Didn't BD sell a ton more PS3 as well during this period. I'd say with PS3 now firing on all cylinders, with still relatively few games and BD not being able to pull away in terms of Neilsen ratios (which some here hold to be very dear, but that is another matter :)), isn't that scary for the BDA?

Since you were being rhetorical :)

72:28 Black friday week?

What is scary about that?

What would it take for those numbers to not be scary 90:10?

With 3/4 of a million hd dvd players installed we have to give them some credit eh?

72:28 Black friday week?

What is scary about that?

What would it take for those numbers to not be scary 90:10?

With 3/4 of a million hd dvd players installed we have to give them some credit eh?
That was one week. Let's see what the next few weeks look like. IMO what is needed (at a minimum):

1. BD weekly sales exceeds HD DVD by a minimum of 100K units (works out to $2M or so software gap per week). If the difference in revenue isn't significant, why would a studio invest all the money in a new BD infrastructure, when HD DVD disks can be made from current DVD lines.

2. BD sales have to show an increasing trend while DVD + HD DVD (which are part of the same infrastructure) have to show a combined declining trend. The case has to be made that there is higher ROI from investing in BD v. DVD + HD DVD.

So, far what we are seeing from Neilsen is that the total gap in units is no where near even 50K units a week and the needless to say that the growth for either HD formats has been pretty small. Just to put in context. The recent sales of the PS3 is being widely covered everywhere. We had something like a 3x increase in monthly sales - equating to more PS3s being addd than the total HD DVD installed base. So, if we take out all the free disks sold on either side - I would say the gap has stayed close to constant all year.

You know why the BDA is discounting software and hardware so aggresively. Right? Because the BDA knows the 'real' war is far closer than many on this forum believe to be.

Not many people on this forum seem to realize that the BDA's battle is not just with HD DVD, but is with the DVD Forum. It is also well known that HD DVD deliberately was architected to use the DVD Infrastructure since the DVD Forum saw an optical future with DVD + HD DVD, whereas, BDA saw one with BD replacing DVD.

So, going back to this topic. HD DVD was created to be a complement of DVD with the mix between SD and HD DVD to be determined based on demand. So, for the DVD Forum, having HD DVD as a niche product for a period of time is fine. The royalty stream will be preserved. For the BDA, having BD as a niche product is death.

"That was one week. Let's see what the next few weeks look like. IMO what is needed (at a minimum):"

One week? this was Black Firday! The biggest shopping week of the year. The cheapest hd dvd players ever in play. Except for Bourne , all of it's big exclusive's are in play.
Downplaying abit?

In my opinion a minimum of what is needed for things to stay dual is hd to achieve parity in sofware and have it stay there for a little while.

"1. BD weekly sales exceeds HD DVD by a minimum of 100K units (works out to $2M or so software gap per week). If the difference in revenue isn't significant, why would a studio invest all the money in a new BD infrastructure, when HD DVD disks can be made from current DVD lines."

You've missed alot of replication cost discussion here.

"2. BD sales have to show an increasing trend while DVD + HD DVD (which are part of the same infrastructure) have to show a combined declining trend. The case has to be made that there is higher ROI from investing in BD v. DVD + HD DVD"

To see an interesting trend, check out YTD and SI. I see a trend forming.

"You know why the BDA is discounting software and hardware so aggresively. Right? Because the BDA knows the 'real' war is far closer than many on this forum believe to be."

It has? It seems to me they have been sticking to their guns a bit on player pricing and clearing out some catalog titles which hd dvd should do too (an they do). If you want to describe that as being aggressive I would describe what TS has done as being rabid, savage brutal attempts at being aggressive.

"So, going back to this topic. HD DVD was created to be a complement of DVD with the mix between SD and HD DVD to be determined based on demand. So, for the DVD Forum, having HD DVD as a niche product for a period of time is fine. The royalty stream will be preserved. For the BDA, having BD as a niche product is death."

So you are saying that it was created knowing Blu Ray was in the works just to be a thorn in it's side? Competition to keep the other from having something? It never intended on trying to win?

I'm not saying that necessarily , but it sounds like you are.

That was one week. Let's see what the next few weeks look like. IMO what is needed (at a minimum):

1. BD weekly sales exceeds HD DVD by a minimum of 100K units (works out to $2M or so software gap per week). If the difference in revenue isn't significant, why would a studio invest all the money in a new BD infrastructure, when HD DVD disks can be made from current DVD lines.

2. BD sales have to show an increasing trend while DVD + HD DVD (which are part of the same infrastructure) have to show a combined declining trend. The case has to be made that there is higher ROI from investing in BD v. DVD + HD DVD.

So, far what we are seeing from Neilsen is that the total gap in units is no where near even 50K units a week and the needless to say that the growth for either HD formats has been pretty small. Just to put in context. The recent sales of the PS3 is being widely covered everywhere. We had something like a 3x increase in monthly sales - equating to more PS3s being addd than the total HD DVD installed base. So, if we take out all the free disks sold on either side - I would say the gap has stayed close to constant all year.

You know why the BDA is discounting software and hardware so aggresively. Right? Because the BDA knows the 'real' war is far closer than many on this forum believe to be.

Not many people on this forum seem to realize that the BDA's battle is not just with HD DVD, but is with the DVD Forum. It is also well known that HD DVD deliberately was architected to use the DVD Infrastructure since the DVD Forum saw an optical future with DVD + HD DVD, whereas, BDA saw one with BD replacing DVD.

So, going back to this topic. HD DVD was created to be a complement of DVD with the mix between SD and HD DVD to be determined based on demand. So, for the DVD Forum, having HD DVD as a niche product for a period of time is fine. The royalty stream will be preserved. For the BDA, having BD as a niche product is death.The problem is that if Warner, Uni and Paramount see that they only way that BD can sell discs is to discount the crap out of them, they won't ever sell it. They alreay have a format that they have to discount.

The problem is that if Warner, Uni and Paramount see that they only way that BD can sell discs is to discount the crap out of them, they won't ever sell it. They alreay have a format that they have to discount.

They really discount the crap out of their new releases don't they?

When I see a brand new release for $15 I'll give you some credit.
You think discounting catalog titles is a new concept or something?
Does that ever happen in DVD?
VHS?

That's reaching man.

I think sales are still small enough to call either side of the HDM 'war' a niche.

Factor in Open Season hitting #2 of the top 10 and altering the ratio by 6 pts (3 on each side) when Sony decided to slap it free (scanned) with every PS3 sold at 1 retail chaing (Best Buy). The same could be said when Heroes was given away free with purchase of the HD DVD add on at Amazon, CC and BB.


I really am baffled on this 'business' of HDM. Last I checked, business was about making the most money. I know the long term goal is massive profits in terms of licensing fees but exactly how do we get there when hardware is being subsidized and heavily discounted and software is being given away? What part of making the most money is freebies part of?

Regardless, I think many misinterpret the size of the HDM market and don't realize that very few people want in on HDM. Of everyone I know, I am 1 of 4 that are into HDM (2 HD DVD, 1 BD, 1 (me) neutral).

The topic is: "HDM Sales Now Enough To Support Niche Market?" Yet some are now discussing the format war and which side will prevail, which will invariably lead to this thread being locked. It puzzles me that people want to discuss the same thing over and over in threads that have some chance of being productive if only people would stay on topic. I too wish there was a "format war" thread, but there isn't.

They really discount the crap out of their new releases don't they?

When I see a brand new release for $15 I'll give you some credit.
You think discounting catalog titles is a new concept or something?
Does that ever happen in DVD?
VHS?

That's reaching man.
You're like a land mine.

The topic is: "HDM Sales Now Enough To Support Niche Market?" Yet some are now discussing the format war and which side will prevail, which will invariably lead to this thread being locked. It puzzles me that people want to discuss the same thing over and over in threads that have some chance of being productive if only people would stay on topic. I too wish there was a "format war" thread, but there isn't.

I'd have no problem with my responses to posts that are off topic to be removed as long as the originating posts that called for rebuttal be removed as well.

I'll stay on track if everyone else will.

You'll get no resitance here.

They really discount the crap out of their new releases don't they?

When I see a brand new release for $15 I'll give you some credit.
You think discounting catalog titles is a new concept or something?
Does that ever happen in DVD?
VHS?

That's reaching man.

The following BOGO sales included some of the biggest titles available on Blu-Ray, including Pirates Of the Caribbean 1 & 2, Wild Hogs (a 2007 film that grossed over $100 million), Apocalypto, and The Prestige. These are hardly "catalog titles".

10/01/07 – 10/20/07
BOGO @ FYE

10/15/07 – 10/22/07
BOGO @ Deepdiscountdvd.com

10/15 – 10/21
BOGO @ Circuit City

10/15 – 10/21
50% Off @ Best Buy

10/15 - 10/21
BOGO @ TARGET

11/9 – 11/15
BOGO @ Futureshop

11/11/07
BOGO @ Fry’s

11/11/07
BOGO @ Amazon

11/15/07
BOGO + $10 Off @ FYE

The following 55% Off sale included a number of BD titles that were released one month earlier, including 28 Days Later, 28 Weeks Later (a brand new 2007 film released day & date on October 6), The Fly, The Day After Tomorrow, From Hell, The Hills Have Eyes 2 (another brand new 2007 film released a mere 25 days prior)

11/16 - 11/25/07
55% Off @ Fry’s
FOX titles


There is absolutely nothing "normal" or traditional about the manner in which Blu-Ray discounts its software. And as somebody already stated, Warner, Paramount & Universal are surely not impressed or concerned with the volume of Blu-Ray software sales considering the constant firesales.

I posted this in another thread, but it bears repeating. Take a look at this list of BOGO and 50%-Off sales they've run (and it probably isn't even complete) and tell me again if this seems like normal sale practices:

1/12/07
BOGO @ Best Buy
House of Flying Daggers
Kung Fu Hustle
Black Hawk Down
Monster House
Click
Talladega Nights: Ballad Of Ricky Bobby
Underworld: Evolution

2/4/07 – 2/10/07
BOGO @ Best Buy
CLICK
UNDERWORLD: EVOLUTION
MONSTER HOUSE
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
INTO THE BLUE
THE FIFTH ELEMENT

2/9/07 – 2/13/07
BOGO @ Fry’s
For $24.99
Click
Silent Hill
Underworld Evolution
Little Man
Monster House
The Benchwarmers
For $19.99
50 First Date
The Big Hit
House of Flying Dagger
THe Fifth Element
Hitch
A Knight's Tale
Into the Blue
Memento
Stealth
XXX
Black Hawk Down
Tears of the Sun*
SWAT
Resident Evil: Apocalypse

3/6/07
50% Off @ Amazon
47 Titles Including:
Alien vs Predator
The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
Resident Evil - Apocalypse
50 First Dates
Kingdom Of Heaven
Memento
Speed
Fifth Element
Entrapment
Phone
Behind Enemy Lines
Chain Reaction
The Marine
Hitch
One Last Thing

7/6/07 – 7/10/07
2/$25 @ Fry’s
Curse of the Golden Flower
Black Hawk Down
House of Flying Daggers
Hellboy
Layer Cake
Kung Fu Hustle
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
Tears of the Sun
Identity
Stealth
Into the Blue
XXX
Big Fish
Memento
Donnie Brasco
Closer
Revenge
Hitch
Seven Years in Tibet
Cruel Intentions
Blazing Saddles
Full Metal Jacket
Unforgiven

10/01/07 – 10/20/07
BOGO @ FYE
Pirates of the Caribbean 1+2
Prestige
Apocalypto
Wild Hogs
Reign of Fire
Bridge to Terabithia
Déjà vu
GI Jane
Glory Road
Goal
Jay & Silent Bob Strike Back
King Arthur
The Queen
The Wild
Annapolis
The Lookout
Brothers Grimm
Casanova
The Great Raid

10/15 – 10/21
$9.99 @ Fry’s
Bram Stoker's Dracula
Fifth Element
Replacement Killers
A Few Good Men
Memoirs of a Geisha
Underworld
Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within
House of Flying Daggers
Hitch
Immortal Beloved
King Fu Hustle
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
Tears of the Sun
Layer Cake
Curse of the Golden Flower
Donnie Brasco
Blackjawk Down
Hellboy
Wild Things
The Patriot

10/15/07 – 10/22/07
BOGO @ Deepdiscountdvd.com
Disney titles including:
Annapolis
Apocalypto
Bridge to Terabithia
Chicago
Chicken Little
Déjà vu
…and many more

10/15 – 10/21
BOGO @ Circuit City
INCLUDES:
Black Hawk Down
Finding Neverland
G.I. Jane
Haunted Mansion
House of Flying Daggers
Into the Blue
Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back
King Arthur
Knights Tale, A
Kung Fu Hustle
Layer Cake
Memento
Remember the Titans
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
Stealth
Tears of the Sun
Annapolis
Apocalypto
Bridge to Terabithia
Brothers Grimm
Casanova
Casino Royale
Chicago
Chicken Little
Click
Dark Water
Deja Vu
Dinosaur
Eight Below
Enemy of the State
Flightplan
Glory Road
Gone in 60 Seconds
Great Raid, The
Guardian, The
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
Invincible
Ladder 49
Lookout
Open Season
Pearl Harbor
Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest
Prestige, The
Primevil
Pursuit of Happyness
Queen, The
Reign of Fire
Rocky Balboa
Silent Hill
Sky High
Stranger than Fiction
Talladega Nights
Ultraviolet
Underworld Evolution
Wild Hogs
Wild, The

10/15 – 10/21
50% Off @ Best Buy
Invincible
Chicken Little
Wild Hogs
Eight Below
POTC 1 and 2
Gone in 60 Seconds
The Lookout
Pearl Harbor
Apocolypto
Deja Vu
Guardian
The Prestige
Enemy of the State

10/15 – 10/21
BOGO @ Amazon.com
Enemy of the State
The Queen
The Lookout
Pearl Harbor
Wild Hogs
Reign of Fire
Dark Water
Primeval
Dinosaur
The Wild
Eight Below
POTC: DMC
POTC: BP
Invincible
POTC: DMC
POTC: BP
…and more

10/15 – 10/21
BOGO @ TARGET
Wild Hogs
Apocalypto
Wild Hogs
Pirates 1 & 2
…and many more

11/9 – 11/15
BOGO @ Futureshop
20 Disney titles
Includes:
Ladder 49
Apocolypto
Déjà vu
Pirates 1&2
The Prestige
…and more

11/11/07
BOGO @ Fry’s
20 Disney titles
Includes:
Apocalypto
Deju Vu
Pirates of the Caribbean (both volumes)
The Prestige
Wild Hogs
…and many more

11/11/07
BOGO @ Amazon
72 Sony titles (including Casino Royale, Rocky Balboa)
40 Disney titles (including Apocalypto, The Prestige, Pirates 1 & 2)

11/15/07
BOGO + $10 Off @ FYE
40 Disney titles (including Chicago, Brothers Grimm, Apocalypto)

11/16 - 11/25/07
55% Off @ Fry’s
FOX titles
Day After Tomorrow
28 Weeks Later
Kingdom Of Heaven
28 Days Later
Night At the Museum
X-Men: Last Stand
Alien vs. Predator
Ice Age: The Meltdown
The Fly
Eragon
Fantastic 4
Transporter
Transporter 2
Flyboys
Mr. Brooks
From Hell
Hills Have Eyes 2
(All $13.98 each)

11/16/07
$9.99 @ Fry’s
Bram Stoker's Dracula
Hollow Man
The Fifth Element (REMASTERED)
The Replacement Killers
A Few Good Men
Underworld
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within
The Patriot
Wild Things
Hellboy
Donnie Brasco
Curse Of The Golden Flower
Layer Cake
Tears Of The Sun
Black Hawk Down
Resident Evil: Apocolypse
The House Of Flying Daggers
Kung Fu Hustle
Stealth

11/19/07
55% Off @ Amazon
Transporter
Transporter 2
Ice Age: The Meltdown
The Usual Suspects
Flyboys
The Devil Wears Prada
Behind Enemy Lines
Speed
Hart’s War
League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
Flight Of the Phoenix
Kiss Of the Dragon
Rocky
Windtalkers
Rising Sun
Bulletproof Monk
The Omen

...what you call regular discounting, I call incredible desperation.

Bob,

You need to take a break. That obviously took up way to much time in your life.....

...what you call regular discounting, I call incredible desperation.

LOL, yep, and im sure CE's arent making HD DVD players because Toshiba is just regularly discounting their product to a normal economic rate.

LOL, objectivity knows no place on this science forum.

Its a sale....give it up. You focus on these certain weeks to claim desperation.....what is packaging 2 blockbuster movies for free with a player? What is discounting player prices to $99 or the 3rd gen to $199? What is offering money (promotional considerations right) to a studio for exclusivity?

Every tactic or promotion HD DVD does is great for the consumer....every tactic or strategy the BDA does is desperate.......

seriously, just let it go, HD DVD is focusing on hardware decreasing ASAP, the BDA is focusing on software sales to counter the normal scaling prices as to not step on any CE's toes.....different strategies.......dont be bitter because the format you chose isnt pulling it out.

Lol! Amen!

Ok I'll concede some of those titles are very compelling!
Maybe a better description would be "Not New Releases".
Catalog may be the wrong term because to some catalog may be "Last Year" or it might be "Really old".

Whatever the case, new releases are not sold at bogos.
But hey why not?

Toshiba can do whatever they want, I guess Blu Ray could do whatever it wants in software. All is fair in..



Of course, you may have done hd dvd an injustice by advertising that list!
I am drooling as we speak and I think there are a lot of titles I missed out on and need to catch up.

Crap, I need to buy some more discs.....I've been on PC all day!!! lol

Plaz . . $20 a title? Hardly. They will have been LUCKY to get $20,000 per title using your math - and that is Gross Revenue - not profit only revenue.

Wow,

Bob shed some light that I didn't know. Looking at all of BD's big sales, I understand why some would call it desperation now.

Can someone pool together HD DVD's sales list by week as well? I know there won't be as many...

Wow,

Can someone pool together HD DVD's sales list by week as well? I know there won't be as many...

And that is positive?:confused:

Wow,

Bob shed some light that I didn't know. Looking at all of BD's big sales, I understand why some would call it desperation now.

Can someone pool together HD DVD's sales list by week as well? I know there won't be as many...

Toshiba pricing out ALL OTHER CE's doesnt register to any of you but a huge wall of text with sales regarding generally the same titles shows desperation?

Seriously, a bit of mature logic and objective reasoning could go a long way.

If you call one side desperate the other is as well. IMO, pricing hardware out of reach for healthy competition and down so far no one can profit on a player in this type of market is immensely more "desperate" than offering different software sales.

But even I simply will not sit here and try to cry foul on either group for doing what they can to win. Whats more desperate, offering software sales to consumers who already invested...or trying to sandbag people into investing into your product by offering 7 free movies with a player thats already priced at a loss (and please, if they WERENT at a loss other CE's would be making them)? Clearly, offering a userbase of investors perks for having already invested, in this instance is far less desperate than trying to have to get people in the door in the first place.

Toshiba pricing out ALL OTHER CE's doesnt register to any of you but a huge wall of text with sales regarding generally the same titles shows desperation?

.

You forgot to mention since they priced out all other CEs on making hd dvd players, they may also have outpriced Dual player makers Samsung and LG.
And future dual maker Denon. Samsung and Lg can't be happy that people have been able to get a Blu Ray player and several HD DVD players for the price of their duals. What motivation does anyone have for making a dual either at this point?

You forgot to mention since they priced out all other CEs on making hd dvd players, they may also have outpriced Dual player makers Samsung and LG.
And future dual maker Denon. Samsung and Lg can't be happy that people have been able to get a Blu Ray player and several HD DVD players for the price of their duals. What motivation does anyone have for making a dual either at this point?

Convinence

I wasn't attempting to claim these sales were poor strategy, nor to deny that Toshiba has been discounting hardware. But selling hardware creates new format owners, thus leads to more software sales (and royalties). And packaging free movies with players (or giving free discs through rebate with hardware purchase) doesn't count towards Videoscan data thus isn't included in weekly sales figures. Giving free movies for buying a player isn't a new strategy either -- CE companies did that with DVD as well.

Whereas these heavy discounts obviously cause higher volume, they also reduce the profits. And with software from these formats selling in such low volumes, can studios really afford to discount 50% + on top of that? Sony, Disney and to a lesser degree, Fox, have been using this strategy all throughout the year -- obviously to get the sales volumes as high as possible to try and persuade the public that Blu-Ray is crushing HD DVD. Of course, the reality is that neither format has accomplished much of anything. Blu-Ray would, simply by virtue of its bigger potential user-base, outsell HD DVD anyway at this point (especially with their advantage in blockbuster new releases this 4th quarter), so why discount so heavily so frequently?

I agree that price cuts need to happen for both formats' software, but the Blu-Ray discounts have been astounding. My feeling is they believe the gamer crowd with the PS3 requires such discounts to buy BD movies. Possible fallout -- BD folks stop buying full-priced titles other than major new releases and simply wait for the next BOGO / half-off sale. Doesn't sound like a scenario that's enticing to a studio exec.

This has turned into sales talk