This thread is for serious HD DVD fans to discuss realistic options for the HD DVD format in light of the announcement that Warner/NewLine has gone Blu.

Please do not respond if you are a Blu-ray fanboy. I don't want this to turn into a format war discussion.

So, it's been a few days for the news to sink in. I was curious as to what others think might be the next possible steps for the format, if there are any, that might be positive. Sure we can postulate that Paramount and Universal will go nuetral, or they will both go blu, but that's not what I am getting at. Are there any real options for HD DVD to survive and/or win?

Here are some strategies:

1) Paramount and Universal stay HD DVD With no rumours or rumblings about going nuetral. In other words, they stay committed to the format both in action and publically. This seems very unlikely. They don't want a fractured market any more than any of us do. They know the long term viability is with one format. However, this strategy might be taken if they have done studies that show the HD format will never go beyond niche. For instance, if they believe that in the future both BLu-ray will never take over DVD regardless if every studio converts they may just stay where they are. Remember, neither Paramount nor Universal have been "offered" $500 million like the rumoured WB payout. And, now with WB defecting, it's unlikely that going Blu will net them any good sign on bonuses. In fact, at this point, they probably will not get any favors to turn. Sony doesn't need to since in their eyes it's inevitable that Paramount and Universal will have to turn. If this scenario plays out, then we will live with two formats, and it will stall physical media. This will mean High Def movies will take longer to become mainstream with DVD still winning. HOwever, Paramount is already excited about online movies (Xbox Live for instance) and a number other other avenues for revenue. Perhaps these two studios continue to focus on new ventures and view physical media as only a portion of their strategy, thus content with partial market share. THey could also rationalize their smaller high def market by saying anyone not getting HD DVD can still enjoy their movies on SD DVD.

If this strategy were to be played out it would only be temporary. The goals would be survival and I would envision it lasting only as long as needed to get combo players in an affordable price range. If they held out, CE manufacturers would be forced to evaluated including both standards in their players. At some point, I would say 2 years, combo players would be cheap enough. Remember, this was never possible with the two physically different VHS/Beta standards. But with all discs being the same size, it's quite possible that a combo player would eventually be the norm. For instance there were two completely different standards for CD-R/CD+R and also DVD-R and DVD+R that required different drives when they all of them came out. Over time, manufacturer's said screw it, we will just support all standards. I don't see why that won't happen.

But it would require Paramount and Universal to take the stance that they are not wavering and sticking to their guns.

I believe this as the best possible scenario at this point for HD DVD to survive. IT's not the most likely and not the best for the market, but hey, I am talking as an HD DVD fan that is exploring options that would save the format.

2) Microsoft or CD Partner introduces an XBOX 360 that has a built in HD DVD drive. Ok, this was rumoured and still may be announced this week. I think it's unlikely to be announced though, now that WB has dropped the bomb. But if it does, it could continue to grow the HD DVD player base. Many of the original Xbox 360 early adopters, and those that bought the elite would get this, as well as new customers. Hey, it would piss us off, but we would find a way to "upgrade". Just like every year or other year those that love their iPods find a way to part with another $349 to get the latest version of their MP3 player. In addition to those sales, customers that would be evaluating the more expensive PS3 might now see a similarly featured Xbox with high def movies for the same price and perhaps it would steal market from PS3. Not that the Xbox needs help there, it's got somewhere in the neighboorhood of 12 million boxes sold to Sony's 5 million PS3s. But future buyers looking to the PS3 for both the gaming and movie playing make go the Xbox (and HD DVD) route if given a choice.

This would slow Blu-ray but not stop it. Frankly, nothing will stop Blu-ray now. But again, if it slowed it enough, it might give time for everyone (CE manufactures, retailers, consumers) to just say screw it, to get movies from all studios I need a combo player.

3) Microsoft makes major investment with PC vendors to subsized including HD DVD drives in PCs. Ok, so all this does is ensure the standard stays around. It does nothing to help the format in the CE market. But if they were to do that, it would again slow adoption of Blu in the PC market. This seems highly unlikely since MS has shown little overt or public interest in the format war. Sure they sided with HD DVD but they have no love for either format nor do they care about either format. In many respects, their only reason to get behind HD DVD was to slow the PS3's sales rates. And in that, they have succeeded greatly.

4) Toshiba announces combo players. What does this do? Well, it doesn't give any hope of HD DVD winning. In fact quite the opposite. However, it does do one thing for HD DVD. It gives all of us faith that at least some CE will continue to support HD DVD long enough so taht our library of HD DVD movies won't be obsolete. See, there needs to be some support for HD DVD into the future for us to feel safe. Otherwise, once our current player breaks we are Sh1t out of luck. If Toshibat can make cost effective combo players it might also give some leadership to the other combo player makers too; they may continue to make combo players.


5) HD DVD forum/Toshiba or whoever, lowers licensing and prices drop on HDDVD low enought that all manufactures eventually add it as another supported standard in their players. Sure, Sony will never, but then they will just look like they have one less feature. You see the only hope we have is that HD DVD survives to remain a standard long enough to become another logo on all CE manufacture's devices. Sort of like how DTS was an underdog and costly to support in the beggining but it was a differenciator of those higher DVD players that did support it. Then it eventually just became another feature.

6) HD DVD sales grow slowly in the next 6 months. To that of 50/50. Partially due to many more HD DVD players that were sold over the holidays. This prompts Toshiba to continue support and Microsoft continues to support it as well. I think this is unlikely given trends.

7) Paramount/Universal is given big incentives (that is if Sony has any more cash) to go Blu to end it all. Paramount/Universal/WB offer trade up program for current HD DVD owners to swap discs either for free, or for small fee. Send in your disc get new one, send in your UPC get coupon for store purchase, something. THis might work well for both Paramount and WB who have been making titles on both formats already. THis might get us further good will than continued BOGO free offers and yet be pretty much the same cost to the studios. Universal it will take some time.

So, most of my scenarious involve HD DVD just hanging in there long enough for combo players to become the norm. Sure it seems long shot, but as technology progresses, all competing formats have been incorporated up to now (other than the two high def audio standards).

What are your thoughts? Again, please only post if you take this seriously, if you care about HD DVD, and would like to contribute. I am not trying to make this a new Blu-ray vs HD DVD thread.

Yes, let it go already.

One format is better for the HDM market. No need to continue this bullshit war.

Yes, let it go already.

One format is better for the HDM market. No need to continue this bullshit war.

Hear Hear

Why would this even be in the general media section?

the only way that hd dvd can survive a few more weeks if it can make one or more of the company's change from blue ray exclusives to neutral or jump to the other side I think thats the only way this can happen.

Posting a thread is fine, but if it's talking about strategies for HD-DVD why isn't it in the HD-DVD forum? Did those get closed or something?

I would vote this to be moved into the HD DVD software section.

To the topic:
Continue to support the HD DVD player owners by releasing DVD/HD DVD Twins (only). DVD market is still huge, and this way customers can be teached over time about HD and encouraged to buy a HD DVD compatible player. This way, HD can even be advertised as "special feature".

Fritzilla, while you have obviously put a lot of effort and thought behind the post, the message is very clear after the Warner announcement.

It is best for all folks (red/blue/purple) to get behind the Blu-Ray format to ensure its success over SD-DVD.

As an HD-DVD supporter I just think the following needs to happen.

1) Toshiba/Universal/Paramount should concede the war and work towards announcing schedules for BD releases.
2) BDA and Toshiba should work towards helping the million or so consumers who chose the defeated format and ensure HD-DVD gets legacy support somewhere down the line in a few players.
3) BDA should continue with aggressive marketing of the format because defeating SD-DVD and taking the format beyond enthusiast support is going to take a hell lot of work.
4) For new HD-DVD owners, WB (who I still think screwed the consumer by not announcing this pre-christmas and arguably assisted in creating upwards of 200k new HD-DVD owners) should come up with some exchange program/coupons for loyal customers to purchase new BD titles.
5) Work at increased pace towards solving the whole profile nonsense and announce full-spec players soon.

Now I realize, BDA/WB need do nothing of the sort and milk the victory for what it is worth, but if they are serious about the war against SD-DVD, they will do good by helping early adopters and the few hundred thousand folks who jumped over the Christmas period switch over seamlessly to the Blu-side.

I, for one, welcome my new Blu overlords. The war's over guys and it was a good fight which ultimately helped consumers on both sides but let's be gracious in letting it go.

Fritzilla, while you have obviously put a lot of effort and thought behind the post, the message is very clear after the Warner announcement.

It is best for all folks (red/blue/purple) to get behind the Blu-Ray format to ensure its success over SD-DVD.

As an HD-DVD supporter I just think the following needs to happen.

1) Toshiba/Universal/Paramount should concede the war and work towards announcing schedules for BD releases.
2) BDA and Toshiba should work towards helping the million or so consumers who chose the defeated format and ensure HD-DVD gets legacy support somewhere down the line in a few players.
3) BDA should continue with aggressive marketing of the format because defeating SD-DVD and taking the format beyond enthusiast support is going to take a hell lot of work.
4) For new HD-DVD owners, WB (who I still think screwed the consumer by not announcing this pre-christmas and arguably assisted in creating upwards of 200k new HD-DVD owners) should come up with some exchange program/coupons for loyal customers to purchase new BD titles.
5) Work at increased pace towards solving the whole profile nonsense and announce full-spec players soon.

Now I realize, BDA/WB need do nothing of the sort and milk the victory for what it is worth, but if they are serious about the war against SD-DVD, they will do good by helping early adopters and the few hundred thousand folks who jumped over the Christmas period switch over seamlessly to the Blu-side.

I, for one, welcome my new Blu overlords. The war's over guys and it was a good fight which ultimately helped consumers on both sides but let's be gracious in letting it go.

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


to OP:

- HD DVD Group sticking together and Microsoft really putting some weight. They saw that Toshiba can't fight this alone.
- 1 BD studio (Disney preferably) to go neutral TL 51 and some financial incentives will do it. They have until June 2008 to persuade them.
- Release all HD DVD studios blockbusters scheduled this year that are exclusive on twin discs - A LOT OF THEM this year
- Permanently drop A3 to $99

and that should do it, HD DVD wins by the beginning of 2009 as Warner would most likely realize what they knew to begin with and by June 2008 we would have A BUNCH of people with $99 players in their houses.

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


Wow... that was harsh. I see what you did there, on the surface it appears that you "appreciate his opinions", but then in a very nuanced manner, dismiss his opinions by saying "that's about what it is". Quite bold, considering your post above consists mostly of what Webster would define as an "opinion".

But again why isn't this in the HD-DVD forum?

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


to OP:

- HD DVD Group sticking together and Microsoft really putting some weight. They saw that Toshiba can't fight this alone.
- 1 BD studio (Disney preferably) to go neutral TL 51 and some financial incentives will do it. They have until June 2008 to persuade them.
- Release all HD DVD studios blockbusters scheduled this year that are exclusive on twin discs - A LOT OF THEM this year
- Permanently drop A3 to $99

.

yes, opinions are about what opinions are. great assertion.

by the way, MS is not going to put any weight. if anything, it's going to take off weight. MS doesn't care enough about HD-DVD to get this involved. They see warner rolling out and now they're most likely even less motivated. they're not goingt o spend on something that'sbeing abandoned. Furthermore, I am not aware that their association with hd-dvd resulted as a desire to enter the next gen dvd market. They wanted to make a little money off of hollywood, not take the responsibility of leading (and paying for) the adoption of the next major optical disc format.

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.

Yup that is my opinion.

But the simple fact is that there is no point fretting over how to fight back against Blu-Ray.

I am sure everyone will agree that Blu-Ray presents a far better option than 480p shill. Also, any fightback will surely doom HDM completely. Most HD-DVD supporters will take a while before investing their money in BD. Confusing this any further is not going to help.

The only strategy for toshiba is a graceful exit strategy, so they don't look like fools prolonging a pointless battle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

Despite the criticisms when UMD can survive this long why can't HD DVD ? UMD still sells well in Japan.

These threads are exactly why it was the better for Warner to make the decision now rather than later.

The longer the format wars carries on, the more die-hard fanatics it will attract to either camp, the harder the fall will be when one has to die.

Yup that is my opinion.

But the simple fact is that there is no point fretting over how to fight back against Blu-Ray.

I am sure everyone will agree that Blu-Ray presents a far better option than 480p shill. Also, any fightback will surely doom HDM completely. Most HD-DVD supporters will take a while before investing their money in BD. Confusing this any further is not going to help.

Nope, what I will personally do is if HD DVD Group sticks to their guns.. I will continue buying $99 full featured HD DVD players, I will buy all major blockbusters coming our way this year including IronMan, new Hulk, Mummy 3, Hellboy 2 etc etc not to mention Batman Begins that you probably won't see on Blu-Ray (at least not very soon - because of "format limitations") and by june something will probaby get worked out with TL51 so Disney starts supporting HD DVD too in addition to Blu-Ray. Having Disney/Buena Vista on HD DVD camp as well would get us to pre-Warner-Blu situation and guarantee HD DVD win by 2009 in market penetration alone. Add twin-discs to this scenario and it can be good night permanently.

Of course, this is all MY OWN opinion and relies on the fact that HD DVD Group sticks together. Any speculation prior to end of CES and official response, including WAR IS OVER is premature.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

Despite the criticisms when UMD can survive this long why can't HD DVD ? UMD still sells well in Japan.

Probably because HD-DVD players don't sell like PSPs, and HD-DVD doesn't have the support that the PSP has, which would be the support of any game publisher which releases games on the system.

I will continue buying $99 full featured HD DVD players,
Of course, this is all MY OWN opinion and relies on the fact that HD DVD Group sticks together. Any speculation prior to end of CES and official response, including WAR IS OVER is premature.

That was a sale. They're not $99 anymore.

Speculation that the war is over IS premature, yes. But speculation that the war will be over pretty soon is justified.

3) Microsoft makes major investment with PC vendors to subsized including HD DVD drives in PCs. Ok, so all this does is ensure the standard stays around. It does nothing to help the format in the CE market. But if they were to do that, it would again slow adoption of Blu in the PC market.Customer: "Hey what's this crap? I want a BD burner there, not a useless ROM drive."

Customer: "Hey what's this crap? I want a BD burner there, not a useless ROM drive."

Nope, it's going to be more like:

Hey what's this Blu/HD DVD crap burner here I'm paying $400 for when I can get 1TB hard drives for $200 and usb sticks with GBs of space ( both rewritable).

The only reason optical media SHOULD be pushed is for transition of movies between future download HD and streaming and DVD and to satisfy aficionados like myself who like to have the library of discs. Everything else is again milking consumers for more money for expensive media, slow write and access, and limited rewriteability if possible. With terabyte hard drives that are shrinking in size at incredible rate, new technologies like WirelessHD, Wireless USB etc etc, we are already way past 50gb optical discs.

Probably because HD-DVD players don't sell like PSPs, and HD-DVD doesn't have the support that the PSP has, which would be the support of any game publisher which releases games on the system.

After recently coming back from Japan I can tell you that the environment there is completely different than the one here. A huge portion of your day is spent on the trains and as such people resort to their phones or portable devices such as the PSP for entertainment. In two weeks' time I saw more PSPs being played in public than I will ever see in my life here in the US. Despite all this, UMD sales in Japan are still not as high as Wikipedia would have you believe.

There is no plan B.

Warners move tipped the scales.
HD DVD support will wither away very fast.
First the hardware retailers are going to drop HD DVD players. We will see consumers are going to ignore HD DVD. There will be minimal (bargain hunters) (if at all) influx of new consumers buying into HD DVD.
Paramount/Dreamworks will flip and Universal can't hold out on it's own.

It's over for HD DVD.

I predicted that warner was going exclusive rather sooner than later and it happened.
I thought HD DVD was the obvious choice for warner given their history with the DVD Forum. But I did not rule out br.

The disc sales ratio numbers are not the reason why w went blu. Any analyst can see what it took for the BDA to sustain the 2:1 ratio after the Paramount descision.
They BDA members didn't have a downward pricing spiral in mind.

One shop doing 160m and the other doing 100m is not a good reason to close a 100m business.

I fear that the warner move has to do with, I suspect, the stalling HDM growth the last quarters. The adoption rate to HDM is far to low. HDM adoption showed signs of being stuck in a niche market. Warner must have come to that conclusion or they where payed big time by BDA members otherwise there most consumer/industry unfriendly move fefies all logic.
The sales number we saw where mostly to the early adopter consumer base fueled by bogo's and early adopters going neutral.

Reasons fror slow consumer adoption:
High price levels.
Consumer apathy: SD DVD is good enough for 90% of the market (screen size : viewing distance)
Format war

Warner doesn't care anymore about replacing DVD


Blu ray is not going to replace DVD.
BDA members are serious about establishing higher prive levels for HDM. They still think this outdated new format adoption model is going to work. Think again thid time the competition is not a tape with long spool times and lousy image quality.

Warner doomed the industry to a multi billion dollar investement to get br production capacity to mass market levels.
Higher authoring costs and many QC issues with the myrad of java issues across different player implementations will be a big problem. Early adopters may accept longer loading times and bugs associated with the vm technology but normal consumers will not.


Indies are robbed of the option to release HDM with lower setup fees. AACS is mandatory now. A sad day for real movie buffs.

For other regions it's bad.
New br releases are 34 to 40 euro retail. $45 ..$50
HDM adoption in europe is not happening with these prices.
Although br does show a better sales ratio it wasn't going anywhere.
The reason HD DVD does poor is that Toshiba never was one of the big cd electric brands. Beacuse of that retail support for HD DVD was abysmal from the get go.

Warner picked the format that is going to make the most money from a HDM in a niche market.

I agree that BD won't take over DVD. Perhaps I'm understanding this wrong, but I've always thought that high definition media was simply an ancillary source of profit for the studios which at the same time benefits consumers who enjoy HD content by giving them a choice to choose between hi-def or standard-def. I don't understand why HD must overtake and "kill" DVD for it to survive.

There is no plan B.

Warners move tipped the scales.
HD DVD support will wither away very fast.
First the hardware retailers are going to drop HD DVD players. We will see consumers are going to ignore HD DVD. There will be minimal (bargain hunters) (if at all) influx of new consumers buying into HD DVD.
Paramount/Dreamworks will flip and Universal can't hold out on it's own.

It's over for HD DVD.

I predicted that warner was going exclusive rather sooner than later and it happened.
I thought HD DVD was the obvious choice for warner given their history with the DVD Forum. But I did not rule out br.

The disc sales ratio numbers are not the reason why w went blu. Any analyst can see what it took for the BDA to sustain the 2:1 ratio after the Paramount descision.
They BDA members didn't have a downward pricing spiral in mind.

One shop doing 160m and the other doing 100m is not a good reason to close a 100m business.

I fear that the warner move has to do with, I suspect, the stalling HDM growth the last quarters. The adoption rate to HDM is far to low. HDM adoption showed signs of being stuck in a niche market. Warner must have
The sales number we saw where mostly to the early adopter consumer base fueled by bogo's and early adopters going neutral.

Reasons fror slow consumer adoption:
High price levels.
Consumer apathy: SD DVD is good enough for 90% of the market (screen size : viewing distance)
Format war

Warner doesn't care anymore about replacing DVD


Blu ray is not going to replace DVD.
BDA members are serious about establishing higher prive levels for HDM. They still think this outdated new format adoption model is going to work. Think again thid time the competition is not a tape with long spool times and lousy image quality.

Warner doomed the industry to a multi billion dollar investement to get br production capacity to mass market levels.
Higher authoring costs and many QC issues with the myrad of java issues across different player implementations will be a big problem. Early adopters may accept longer loading times and bugs associated with the vm technology but normal consumers will not.


Indies are robbed of the option to release HDM with lower setup fees. AACS is mandatory now. A sad day for real movie buffs.

For other regions it's bad.
New br releases are 34 to 40 euro retail. $45 ..$50
HDM adoption in europe is not happening with these prices.
Although br does show a better sales ratio it wasn't going anywhere.
The reason HD DVD does poor is that Toshiba never was one of the big cd electric brands. Beacuse of that retail support for HD DVD was abysmal from the get go.

Warner picked the format that is going to make the most money from a HDM in a niche market.

I can agree with this. But again, even though I do share your sentiment that it might be over, I still think that if HD DVD wants they can turn it around, much harder, but if they push fast they can, but unfortunately in today's world, people like to be with a winner and this might discourage unity within HD DVD Group. We will see. It's too early though, it's been just 2 days, I'd like to see what will happen and if it really is over.

I agree that BD won't take over DVD. Perhaps I'm understanding this wrong, but I've always thought that high definition media was simply an ancillary source of profit for the studios which at the same time benefits consumers who enjoy HD content by giving them a choice to choose between hi-def or standard-def. I don't understand why HD must overtake and "kill" DVD for it to survive.

Good question. And the answer IS, are you ready?

GREED!

Everybody is losing money. Consumer is getting great cheap stuff with DVD, but studios and CE companies are bleeding.

Now they have to do something to cut off DVD and replace it with something they can milk us for with higher prices and you can bet your ass they are trying to NOT make the same mistake again (in Blu-Ray case) as they did with DVD and allow Chinese influence unless it's HEAVILY controlled. They will try to keep Blu-Ray player/software prices as high as possible as they need money, but again they'll try to drop it to somewhat affordable cause they are now offering better quality of movies. The beauty for everyone involved here except the consumer is that they get a fresh start with pricing. Now they will never allow players to go below $100 for example. They know that's where they are now with DVD and it's not working for them. They want more. Studios are in heaven as they will get a chance to charge $35-$40 for movies now day/date and $20 for older releases. This was $15.99 and $9.99 for current DVD pricing for the most part. Overall, they all think, those who don't have money will buy DVDs.

It was a big no no what we got from Toshiba. Same thing, but fully featured, pacing the way for another wave of $60 HD players where we all get to watch hi-def movies (rich or poor) everywhere.

Sigh, unfortunately this is the world we live in. Obviously even after Warner, we have witnessed that we really never had a say in this. It was all backdoor deals anyways.

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.


Your posts sir are a joy to read. Very lucid and real. I salute you :)

After recently coming back from Japan I can tell you that the environment there is completely different than the one here. A huge portion of your day is spent on the trains and as such people resort to their phones or portable devices such as the PSP for entertainment. In two weeks' time I saw more PSPs being played in public than I will ever see in my life here in the US. Despite all this, UMD sales in Japan are still not as high as Wikipedia would have you believe.

UMD sales in Japan may not be high but it is still being SOLD. Same applies to MiniDisc players / recorders. There is always a market for stuffs that appear obsolete or dead.

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.
So surely the same would have been true for HD-DVD had it come out on top?

Good question. And the answer IS, are you ready?

GREED!

Everybody is losing money. Consumer is getting great cheap stuff with DVD, but studios and CE companies are bleeding.

Now they have to do something to cut off DVD and replace it with something they can milk us for with higher prices and you can bet your ass they are trying to NOT make the same mistake again (in Blu-Ray case) as they did with DVD and allow Chinese influence unless it's HEAVILY controlled. They will try to keep Blu-Ray player/software prices as high as possible as they need money, but again they'll try to drop it to somewhat affordable cause they are now offering better quality of movies. The beauty for everyone involved here except the consumer is that they get a fresh start with pricing. Now they will never allow players to go below $100 for example. They know that's where they are now with DVD and it's not working for them. They want more. Studios are in heaven as they will get a chance to charge $35-$40 for movies now day/date and $20 for older releases. This was $15.99 and $9.99 for current DVD pricing for the most part. Overall, they all think, those who don't have money will buy DVDs.

It was a big no no what we got from Toshiba. Same thing, but fully featured, pacing the way for another wave of $60 HD players where we all get to watch hi-def movies (rich or poor) everywhere.

Sigh, unfortunately this is the world we live in. Obviously even after Warner, we have witnessed that we really never had a say in this. It was all backdoor deals anyways.

Didn't know I asked a question, but thanks for answering whatever I asked.

On a more serious note, no I don't believe the studios need to, as you put it, "cut off DVD and replace it..." I honestly don't think a single person here will agree with that, but perhaps someone can prove me wrong by agreeing. I mean why would you cut off your biggest source of revenue if you are a movie studio? I mean honestly if you were a studio which would you prefer:

Option A: No DVD sales & some hi-def sales
or
Option B: DVD sales that are very very slowly declining & some hi-def sales

UMD sales in Japan may not be high but it is still being SOLD. Same applies to MiniDisc players / recorders. There is always a market for stuffs that appear obsolete or dead.

Well if you are talking about SOLD, then there's nothing interesting about this discussion because they are still being sold in the US and the rest of the world. The point was that UMDs don't sell WELL. And.... I no longer remember why we were pointing out that they don't sell well...

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.


without getting into bluray vs dvd the issues these technologies are going to have is that when they're barely past prototype form and expensive as hell to produce BR will have been in production for a few years and relatively cheap to make, not to mention (hopefully) full spec. also a question of output as far as numbers. BR manufacturing will, relatively, be much more efficient. Those technologies will then need to catch up across the board, unless the new format is really accessible, technically robust, and extremely cheap and easy to make right from the get-go, which is improbable.

So surely the same would have been true for HD-DVD had it come out on top?

The lower price strategy gave HD DVD a far better chance.

Toshiba dropped price early on mainly because they realized that the real competition is SD DVD. It also kept them going in the format war.

But alas dvd like pricing levels is not what most studio's have in mind.

The things they can use.

Get the remaining studios to stay put
Create cheap dualformat players (Zoran solution etc)
And get the studios to release some DVDs as Twin/Combo only

That DivX and MP3 is included in so many DVD players wasnt something the studios wanted, the market wanted it.

It is more a question of will by the included parties.

without getting into bluray vs dvd the issues these technologies are going to have is that when they're barely past prototype form and expensive as hell to produce BR will have been in production for a few years and relatively cheap to make, not to mention (hopefully) full spec. also a question of output as far as numbers. BR manufacturing will, relatively, be much more efficient. Those technologies will then need to catch up across the board, unless the new format is really accessible, technically robust, and extremely cheap and easy to make right from the get-go, which is improbable.

That is all true but with br production cost will never fall back to dvd production cost levels. The tech is more complicated and thus more expensive. Not to mention the additional investment required to setup a sufficient number of production lines for mass market production.

That is all true but with br production cost will never fall back to dvd production cost levels. .

does it have to?

moreover, if you're saying that BR is goign to have issues because it will never fall to dvd production cost levels, then what is the implication for this new format that will be even more costly to produce when its introduced?

That is all true but with br production cost will never fall back to dvd production cost levels. The tech is more complicated and thus more expensive. Not to mention the additional investment required to setup a sufficient number of production lines for mass market production.

focus people,focus...this is not about blu ray...this is about brainstorming on how to save hdhdhcvv. the op talked about not allowing blu fanboys to respond but the red fanboys always digress and badmouth blu ray.

I think the reason BR keeps being brought up in this thread is because it is in the HDTV Software Media Discussion where both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are discussed together. If it were in the HD-DVD Software Discussion forum it probably would be pretty focused on HD-DVD right now.

does it have to?

moreover, if you're saying that BR is goign to have issues because it will never fall to dvd production cost levels, then what is the implication for this new format that will be even more costly to produce when its introduced?

I'm not saying there will be br issues because of higher production costs.

Consumers get higher retail price levels partly because of this.

focus people,focus...this is not about blu ray...this is about brainstorming on how to save hdhdhcvv. the op talked about not allowing blu fanboys to respond but the red fanboys always digress and badmouth blu ray.

You are wrong. it's simple business 1 0 1 that more complicated tech will be more expensive to produce. Stating that fact is not digressing and badmouthing blu ray.
The Warner move may seal the fate of the far cheaper to produce alternative.

For Warner the choice for br is to get the most money from HDM destined to become a niche market anyway.

I just feel that HD DVD had a better chance to become mainstream.

What would I do if I were the HD DVD Promotional Group? If I wanted to stay in this thing I would have each member sign an "exclusivity" agreement for say 2 or 3 years so there is absolutely no way for any movement away from HD DVD for that period of time. This of course, assures the marketplace of continued support. I would then use the immense power of DVD to sell HD DVD. Sell combo or combo like products with no separate DVD for a close to DVD price! Colour the HD DVD side red so the consumer can easily be trained as to which side goes down. The HD DVD on the "combo" is advertised as a bonus, to be used or not. Use DVD packaging, but with the red theme and stick them in the DVD section. Let DVD do all the heavy lifting. Toshiba now needs a $99 player - this really shouldn't be hard to do. When something is cheap and easy and and offers great value the consumer will gravitate towards it.

Will the HD DVD Promotional Group give these suggestions a try? I doubt it, but if they do then IMO HD DVD has a fighting chance. Edit: What's really ironic about this strategy is that every DVD purchase and rental, and yes, even those only wishing to support BD will actually be promoting HD DVD when they rent or purchase a Universal or Paramount DVD! HD DVD should be advertising how great DVD is and that HD DVD included makes it even better.

The advantages of the combo or combo like release only (no DVD release) are:

1) saves retail and rental space;
2) give the consumer something for free or nearly free;
3) gets HD DVD into every place DVD is and that's a lot of places (rental and retail);
4) easy to rationalize the purchase of a cheap HD DVD player and once this is done the purchase of more software;
4) Completely takes distribution of HD DVD out of the equation - it doesn't matter whether or not BB wants to rent HD DVDs - now they have no choice!; and
5) makes BD look very expensive unless it adds a separate DVD to every Blu-Ray and this of course allows the consumer to ebay the separate DVD thus cutting into DVD sales for that disc!

Oh, almost forgot - IT COMPLETELY SCEWS THE WEEK TO WEEK SALES RATIO!!! The format with only 2 studios supporting it will win every week's sales!

Will the "curse" of HD DVD become its savior? I don't know, but I'd give it a shot!

Cheers,

Grant

What would I do if I were the HD DVD Promotional Group? If I wanted to stay in this thing I would have each member sign an "exclusivity" agreement for say 2 or 3 years so there is absolutely no way for any movement away from HD DVD for that period of time. This of course, assures the marketplace of continued support. I would then use the immense power of DVD to sell HD DVD. Sell combo or combo like products with no separate DVD for a close to DVD price! Colour the HD DVD side red so the consumer can easily be trained as to which side goes down. The HD DVD on the "combo" is advertised as a bonus, to be used or not. Use DVD packaging, but with the red theme and stick them in the DVD section. Let DVD do all the heavy lifting. Toshiba now needs a $99 player - this really shouldn't be hard to do. When something is cheap and easy and and offers great value the consumer will gravitate towards it.

Will the HD DVD Promotional Group give these suggestions a try? I doubt it, but if they do then IMO HD DVD has a fighting chance.

The advantages of the combo or combo like release only (no DVD release) are:

1) saves retail and rental space;
2) give the consumer something for free or nearly free;
3) gets HD DVD into every place DVD is and that's a lot of places (rental and retail);
4) easy to rationalize the purchase of a cheap HD DVD player and once this is done the purchase of more software;
4) Completely takes distribution of HD DVD out of the equation - it doesn't matter whether or not BB wants to rent HD DVDs - now they have no choice!; and
5) makes BD look very expensive unless it adds a separate DVD to every Blu-Ray and this of course allows the consumer to ebay the separate DVD thus cutting into DVD sales for that disc!

Oh, almost forgot - IT COMPLETELY SCEWS THE WEEK TO WEEK SALES RATIO!!! The format with only 2 studios supporting it will win every week's sales!

Will the "curse" of HD DVD become its savior? I don't know, but I'd give it a shot!

Cheers,

Grant
I like your thinking, kid

Deja vu, The HD-DVD promotional group will do well with folks like you on the board. :)

Deja Vu, I agree with the approach.

If they can get combos to be a bit more reliable (in over 150 titles I've seen on HD DVD, the only two reproduceable problems I ever had were on combos, Happy Feet and Bourne Ultimatum) it would be a great approach.

Obviously, cost would be a HUGE factor. What would be unfair about it would be asking Universal and Paramount to bear that cost alone. Having just these two studios do it could still be a problem, but I like this "stealth" or "ninja" approach very much.

In fact, maybe we take it a step further?

The same way DVD players play CDs, MP3, and other formats automatically, why not just have players still called DVD players, but they happen to play HD DVDs as well? Hide it in plain sight! Heck, Toshiba already got its prices down to $99, that's less than a lot of up-converters. Why not market these things like Oppo, as great upconverters that also play HD DVD? In fact, Oppo is such a big name in upconversion, bring them on board! A lot of people respond to their name.

As I, and others, have said before...also...OPEN THE FLOODGATES ON CATALOG TITLES!

Strategies:
Release blockbusters as Twins/Combos only?
Ride on the advantage of the migration paths which HD DVD offers to studios (e.g. production lines)?
Keep selling more <$199 HD-DVD/upconverting DVD players?
By the way: what will happen with CH-DVD?

I honestly do not see a way for HD-DVD to survive this debacle. I'm angry for getting sucked into this at the 11th hour (Christmas 2007). But also thankful I have a good quality, full featured HD-DVD and upconverting DVD player + a pile of HD-DVD movies for what is a pittance compared to what a similar BlueRay package would have cost. We've agonized over this since the Warner announcement - and we realize there is probably no way to save the format. This is a real loss to the people and the future of high def. Although Warner says it cares about high def going mainstream, I expect they really care about maximizing revenues and profits. I recognize those can be one and the same if done correctly. Our fallback HD-DVD position is - enjoy our new player and HD-DVD movies as long as we can and purchase HD-DVD releases when we find what we like if it is a bargain. Rented standard def. dvd's upconverted are fine with us for releases with no HD-DVD offerings. No Blueray in the future unless lots of things change about it - especially prices of full featured players and movie releases.
Whatever Warner would have gotten from us via HD-DVD purchases will be replaced by local bargain level weekday rentals of std def dvd's for the most part.

Its only through adversity that the truly great come to the forefront! I'm curious to see the real "character" of HD DVD. Just how innovative can this format be? No more thinking within the box, so to speak, if it wants to survive! I'm hoping that HD DVD has some brain power to counter the immense muscular power of BD. A little brain storming please. Is the "comeback kid" still in the house? If I were in this thing I would give the BDA the fight of it's life - raise a glass to HD DVD!

Cheers,

Grant

To the OP: Your piece was well written but there comes a time when you can bow out or be executed. The next big blow might not come from a red studio going blu but by the simple reason that BB and all other stores will quickly start reducing hd dvd's are with blu titles.

Second the consumer is now beginning to buy blu stand alone in large quantaties. Many BB are reporting being sold out of Sony, Samsung and Panasonic players. I could go on but I wont.

It's time to let it go there is now only format in in the high def market.

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.

There is no way for an old tech solution like BD to kill DVD. The DVD forum needs to get moving on a real next gen format.

Negotiate with the BD group to develop a new technology that would be backwards compatable with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

In business . . . when your back is against the wall you only have two choices:

1. Cut your losses

2. Throw everything you have at it.

Toshiba makes about $1 billion per year from all the IP's on DVD. They get nothing from BD.

Now we will see what kind of "stones" Toshiba really has and if Viacom and NBC/Universal are really supporters of HD DVD - or are they all talk and little action.

It's not over yet.

The rumor is that the HD DVD PG will make an announcement after CES . . .after BD has shot it's wad.

Forewarned is forearmed.

In business . . . when your back is against the wall you only have two choices:

1. Cut your losses

2. Throw everything you have at it.

Toshiba makes about $1 billion per year from all the IP's on DVD. They get nothing from BD.

Now we will see what kind of "stones" Toshiba really has and if Viacom and NBC/Universal are really supporters of HD DVD - or are they all talk and little action.

It's not over yet.

The rumor is that the HD DVD PG will make an announcement after CES . . .after BD has shot it's wad.

Forewarned is forearmed.

There is no real reason for Toshiba to back down if they can keep Uni/PDW. Again, I have always hoped both formats would die quickly so we could get a more long range format. That needs to take place while physical media is still the main delivery method.

This thread cracks me up! :D

After recently coming back from Japan I can tell you that the environment there is completely different than the one here. A huge portion of your day is spent on the trains and as such people resort to their phones or portable devices such as the PSP for entertainment. In two weeks' time I saw more PSPs being played in public than I will ever see in my life here in the US. Despite all this, UMD sales in Japan are still not as high as Wikipedia would have you believe.

The new psp-2000 is selling incredibly well in japan given their exorbitant pricing over the DS. Why? Japan has an ISDBT digital TV over the air, PSP-2000 has a ISDBT 1-seg tuner for TVs. All new psp-2000s just suddenly became portable tvs that can tune to all those digital tv channels that you can watch on your HDTV. Plus they have video output that you can connect to your TV.

UMDs have a problem because you can get memory sticks and if you have DVDs. Well, ..., anyway, ..., moving right along......

The end of the "format war" is the best deal, so even though I prefer HD-DVD to BD (mostly because of the menu structures), I am glad one of them is going away (I have both).

However, if Toshiba wants to keep fighting, the only way to save it is for Universal, Paramount and whoever is left as HD-DVD exclusive to immediately prepare and release every 'A' title in their vaults. Unload all of the biggies. Star Treks, Indiana Jones, etc. This is probably impossible, as the time to prepare these is slim, unless they went with down and dirty, movie only releases at a low cost.

Still, it's really not worth it when you get right down to it. Without software, the hardware is useless. See "SACD and DVD-Audio"!

I will continue buying $99 full featured HD DVD players.

Seriously I want to know where all these $99 full featured HD DVD players are. Please inform me where these are. I look at the catalog ads that came with the Sunday paper this morning like any regular Joe and Best Buy is promoting a Toshiba 1080i player for $299 and Circuit City is advertising a Toshiba 1080p player for $349.

BTW Blu-ray standalones outsold HD DVD standalones in December. That is another HUGE BLOW to HD DVD.

I really don't see anything left for them. HD DVD is essentially now just Toshiba and 2 studios. That is "HD DVD." That is not a combination that can survive or even IMO constitutes an actual "movie format" anymore.

Click here for instance: http://www.hddvdstats.com/

...you will see that Warner Brothers films constitutes 35% of the HD DVD library. Come May they will be STOPPING all HD DVD production. HD DVD will have a full 1/3rd of their library PULLED/SOLD OUT PERMANENTLY from their shelves plus a full 1/3rd of the new releases will be STOPPED. Just think about that for a second. How do you survive that in the marketplace.

Seriously I want to know where all these $99 full featured HD DVD players are. Please inform me where these are. I look at the catalog ads that came with the Sunday paper this morning like any regular Joe and Best Buy is promoting a Toshiba 1080i player for $299 and Circuit City is advertising a Toshiba 1080p player for $349.

BTW Blu-ray standalones outsold HD DVD standalones in December. That is another HUGE BLOW to HD DVD.

I really don't see anything left for them. HD DVD is essentially now just Toshiba and 2 studios. That is "HD DVD." That is not a combination that can survive or even IMO constitutes an actual "movie format" anymore.

Click here for instance: http://www.hddvdstats.com/

...you will see that Warner Brothers films constitutes 35% of the HD DVD library. Come May they will be STOPPING HD DVD production and HD DVD will be left without a full 1/3rd of their library will be pulled from their shelves plus a full 1/3rd of their new releases will be STOPPED. Just think about that for a second. How do you survive that in the marketplace.

By having the existing studios pick up the slack and release more titles than they did in 2007.

To the original post.

Warner moved becuase they want the war to end. Fox didnt go HD DVD in the 11th hour so Warner went BR.

Strategy - HD DVD just needs to keep the War going. If Warner's move doesnt end the war, then the move isnt producing what it was intended for. Now, they are just leaving money on the table again.

New ideas and innovations to what the HD DVD group should might be well and good. It can be very simple. Dont give Warner what they want (an end to the war).

By having the existing studios pick up the slack and release more titles than they did in 2007.

LOL. Universal and Paramount cannot equal the output of Warner Bros, MGM, Fox, Sony, and Lionsgate. Heck Blu-ray has so many studios now I feel like I may even be forgetting one or two. The whole point is Toshiba players and 2 studios DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A VIABLE MOVIE FORMAT.

What Toshiba needs to do to survive & possible succeed past BD:

1) Make a deal with Universal/Paramount for royalty costs to be reduced to: cost of production + $1 + continued exclusivity. (So they (HD DVD group) make 1 dollar per disc, which is still better than $0 if HD DVD dies) and Studios still make close to the same premium, but gives HD DVD group the ability to adjust disc prices.

2) Make a deal with the following studios for 1st to sign contract to disc production cost + $2 + number of guranteed releases per yer.
2nd to sign contract cost + $3 + number of guaranteed releases. etc.
So basically first come first serve basis, whoever wants the better deal better sign quick.

3) Permanently reduce the player costs by $150. HD A3 regular price should be $150. The $100 A2 fire sale left too big of an impression on certain buyers that wanted it, that without a HD DVD player being priced similarly close they wont want to buy it.

4) Reduce HD DVD prices to $24.99 MSRP. This puts it just above DVD's but makes it so much more affordable for everyone. Now people may say well studios will want more money thus higher MSRP. But you have to keep in mind the royalties set on say BD. I'm sure Sony collects a huge premium per disc thus they want to keep the MSRP high. With HD DVD Group taking only a royalty of $1-$7 per disc, you can drastically reduce the price and still make the same profit for the studios.

It sucks for the HD DVD Group to make little profit on such a huge investment, but then again their main goal is to entice the studios and comsumers at this time, not try to feed their pockets. Because if they fail at these two points. HD DVD gets dropped permanently and they make $0. Me personally would rather make $1-7 per disc than $0.

5) Make the 24.99 MSRP price the standard for HD/DVD combo's. Ensure all releases are in combo format. Start mass promoting the combo format as format of choice for DVD owners.
Making sure everyone knows that buying HD/DVD combo version entitles them to the exact DVD version, BUT is future proof as it WILL play in HD if they upgrade into HD DVD later.

This is a huge market that Toshiba has missed in the past. Promote where there is a HUGE user base already. DVD owners will be more willing to spend $5 more for a HD/DVD combo etc. to future proof but not at the current $10-15 price premium for combos.

LOL. Universal and Paramount cannot equal the output of Warner Bros, MGM, Fox, Sony, and Lionsgate. Heck Blu-ray has so many studios now I feel like I may even be forgetting one or two. The whole point is Toshiba players and 2 studios DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A VIABLE MOVIE FORMAT.

All they have to do is produce as many titles as they did with WB on board.

And the WB deal doesn't take hold until June 1st - 5 months from now.

Sorry to spoil the BD Love Fest. it is not over yet.

The HD DVD PG has yet to respond.

Thanks for some of the responses. I see only a few took the point of thread and put some thought into it, but I appreciate those.

Some have asked why this is in the HDTV Software Media Discussion as opposed to the HD DVD forum. I put it here because I, like many, am a dual format owner. I also know that WB was HD DVD exclusive and is now Blu-ray exclusive, so the two formats are both part of the conversation. Finally, just about every thread like this that was brought up in the HD DVD area has been moved to this forum. I don't mind if blu-ray owners read this and contribute, I just politely asked that we differenciate this thread from the multitude of others by sticking to the OP and not letting it boil down to a format war discussion.

Basically, I know that the WB format decision basically dooms HD DVD. It's pretty much over.

However, I was asking for those interested to hypothesize what possible steps could be taken by HD DVD group in light of the announcement. What are theoretical steps or strategies.

Personally, I agree in principle, that we need one format for long term viability. I also knew from the beginning that eventually this day would come.

So, my OP is more academic than realistic, but nonetheless an interesting topic for those that wish to discuss possible future moves by the HD DVD forum. It's highly likely that nothing comes of it, heck, that's the case with 50% of the discussion threads in the high def forums. But it's theraputic for those that wanted to see HD DVD survive.

Also, as some have discussed, it's quite possible that the whole market of high def will never surpass or suplant the standard DVD market. It might be that the High def formats (either one or two) were always going to be for say 5-10% of the movie buyers. Let's say, for instance, in 10 years, this industry never breaks out into the J6P crowd, that mainstream buyers always stick with DVD, then this notion of one format being the savior might be a lofty dream that never materializes in mass market adoption. If that's the case then perhaps one or two formats might not have ever mattered. That's a risky proposition when everyone get's behind $400 players and software pricing like Fox's $39.99 MSRP discs (even for catalog titles). It might take a few years now with high prices to even get back to reasonable mainstream adoption prices now that the BDA assumes HD DVD will or does fold. I can point to UMD (another Sony standard) as a failure, mainly because they were so arrogant that they thought they should price their mobile inferior standard at normal DVD prices. That was the main reason people did not get on board, and that single standard with no competition FAILED misserably. Price is important and it seems Sony, with Blu-ray, hasn't learned that lesson.

I do believe pricing will come down, but the BDA has never been about cheaper (by their own admission), it's only HD DVD's competition that drove that pricing down as fast as it did.

So, sure, HD DVD will probably die. I was curious, from HD DVD supporters, dual format owners, and even Blu-ray owners, what thoughts come to mind if you were in the HD DVD strategy meetings right now, what you would put forward as ideas to save the format (regardless of the question of whether it's right or not to continue a dual format race).

And, sure, I realize, merely asking for everyone to refrain from senseless posts won't stop many from feeling compelled to write down off topic clever jabs about how "HD DVD is lost, get over it". Sure there are some that can't control their impulse to write in every forum thread, but it is nice to see some people got the point of the original thread and offered some ideas.

Yes, we are talking a market that over the next 5 years is worth billions in royalties and other fees. I cannot see a company the size of Toshiba (which is many times the size of Sony) simply surrendering that cash to its competitor. The Warner decision has certainly tipped the scales - but we may see a massive backlash from Toshiba.

Toshiba and the HD DVD group were obviously caught off guard by this announcement - particularly so given their recent negotiations with Warner and their cryptic "legalese" response. You can't tell me that right now emergency meetings are not being arranged, strategies planned and lines drawn. There will certainly be at least one more round of negotiations over this - otherwise why would Warner wait until mid-year to end HD DVD production?

The BR camp want everyone to think its over (a part of their grass roots strategy) - I am sure Sony and Co. went wild with press releases announcing "the end of the war" - I think that's premature - wait and see what happens!

All they have to do is produce as many titles as they did with WB on board.

And the WB deal doesn't take hold until June 1st - 5 months from now.

Sorry to spoil the BD Love Fest. it is not over yet.

The HD DVD PG has yet to respond.

It's over Lee. You are literally among a group of only 3 or 4 people I have seen on AVS now that believes it is not. HD DVD *cancelled* their CES press conference. HD DVD is now 1 manufacturer and 2 studios going up against essentially the entire consumer electronics and movie industry. And the most telling sign? Guys like rdjam and Bob Black haven't even posted here since the announcement and the moderator markrubin wrote an open letter to get the BD insiders to come back and post on this board. Come on, let's look at things gracefully and honestly here.

what if Toshiba decides to join with HD-VMD.....then what?

and by the way.......how's HD-VMD doing these days? :D

It's over Lee. You are literally among a group of only 3 or 4 people I have seen on AVS now that believes it is not. HD DVD *cancelled* their CES press conference. HD DVD is now 1 manufacturer and 2 studios going up against essentially the entire consumer electronics and movie industry. And the most telling sign? Guys like rdjam and Bob Black haven't even posted here since the announcement and the moderator markrubin wrote an open letter to get the BD insiders to come back and post on this board. Come on, let's look at things gracefully and honestly here.

See this is why we have never been able to have reasonable debate with many BR folks - from the start it's been bully propaganda.

If HD DVD is to survive:
1.Microsoft needs to include the HD DVD player in the XBox360.
2.More studios need to release in that format(which isn't going to happen).
3.The entry player price has to be ~$100USD all of the time.

As for those who want to see SD DVD go away in favor of HDM...it ain't going to happen for a long time,only 13% of households in the US have a HDTV right now.Stores sell 20x more SD DVD's than HDM.
BTW:all DVD's sales were down in 2007: http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSN0325539220080105

See this is why we have never been able to have reasonable debate with many BR folks - from the start it's been bully propaganda.

It's called reality. HD DVD literally is part and parcel with 1 manufacturer and 2 studios now with over 1/3rd of their library gone in 5 months. That is not a viable movie format, I don't care if it was called "Blu-ray" or "World's Best Movie Disc" it doesn't matter the name, "Toshiba players and 2 studios" is not a viable combination for a home movie format.

It's over Lee. You are literally among a group of only 3 or 4 people I have seen on AVS now that believes it is not. HD DVD *cancelled* their CES press conference. HD DVD is now 1 manufacturer and 2 studios going up against essentially the entire consumer electronics and movie industry. And the most telling sign? Guys like rdjam and Bob Black haven't even posted here since the announcement and the moderator markrubin wrote an open letter to get the BD insiders to come back and post on this board. Come on, let's look at things gracefully and honestly here.

You seem to forget that all the news has been in BD's favor with nothing, as far as a response from the HD DVD PG.

I prefer to wait for them to respond than to listen to you and all that share your opinion . . . if you don't mind.;)

It's called reality. HD DVD literally is part and parcel with 1 manufacturer and 2 studios now with over 1/3rd of their library gone in 5 months. That is not a viable movie format, I don't care if it was called "Blu-ray" or "World's Best Movie Disc" it doesn't matter the name, "Toshiba and 2 studios" is not a viable combination for a home movie format.

You really don't understand do you?

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

"Scorched Earth" - ever hear about that?

And PLEASE . . . no diatribes or drivel about what is good for the consumer because the consumer is LAST on the list of what matters to studios and large corporations.

You seem to forget that all the news has been in BD's favor with nothing, as far as a response from the HD DVD PG.

I prefer to wait for them to respond than to listen to you and all that share your opinion . . . if you don't mind.;)

Exactly - I hate to think what would happen if it were announced an asteroid was headed for earth - most of the population would have committed suicide before we could even get Bruce Willis off the ground!!

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


to OP:

- HD DVD Group sticking together and Microsoft really putting some weight. They saw that Toshiba can't fight this alone.
- 1 BD studio (Disney preferably) to go neutral TL 51 and some financial incentives will do it. They have until June 2008 to persuade them.
- Release all HD DVD studios blockbusters scheduled this year that are exclusive on twin discs - A LOT OF THEM this year
- Permanently drop A3 to $99

and that should do it, HD DVD wins by the beginning of 2009 as Warner would most likely realize what they knew to begin with and by June 2008 we would have A BUNCH of people with $99 players in their houses.


I doubt we'll see this war escalate.

Personally, I think the single most consumer friendly way to end this, is for Paramount and Universal to negotiate with the BDA to offer a financial incentive for them to have a trade in program. If they are willing to spend $500 mil (rumoured) on Warner and $500 mil (rumoured) on Fox then perhaps they could offer the financial incentives to pay for the last two studios to convert and offer a way for HD DVD owners to replace their discs. Hell, even if they only send a disc and we keep the cases, then at least a majority of our library would be saved. MOst of us did go purple and those that recently got on board for $99 don't have to feel that bad since that's not that much spent and it is still a fine DVD player.

Sure we realize some loss for being early adopters. Face it, those that bought into either format right now are those that are buying tons of movies (many in the hundreds). Your mainstream consumer is not that person. So, right now there are a lot of HD DVD supporters that buy a lot of movies that are soured. It's likely that 40% of high def owners are not angered to some extent. A trade up plan like this would take the negativity out of the equation. Could minimize the damage and present a way for everyone to embrace the new Blu-ray single format.

honestly, BDA doesn't want to loose that 40% right now. They want the 100% of us current buyers and then some. Loosing the faith of the 40% is a step backwards and could stall eventual adoption of all consumers. THey need us all rallying on their side.

You really don't understand do you?

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

You sound like you are actually rooting for this!

Keep in mind the Toshiba and Sony are working on a deal to work out the Cell division.

Which is worth 858 million USD for Sony and is not complete until March 2008.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/18/sony-sells-cell-to-toshiba/

It is kind of interesting... Will it give Toshiba control over Cell production? Or if Toshiba can back out of this deal before its finalized will the 858 M loss revenue for Sony create some problems with any of their secret BD deals they got going on?

I suspect that without serious competition to drive down prices, HDM is going to be the next Laserdisk. The acceptance curve will be so long something else will take over. So you may want HD DVD to survive.

The movie market may not be the only way HD-DVD survives. It is a cost-effective high density disc format with excellent production capability. Perhaps Microsoft uses it for the next XBox in this capacity. I think MS will target it's next console as the beginning of mass market movie downloads, the way Sony is using PS3 for BluRay. If BluRay stays niche and DVD remains the top format (which I believe is what will happen), then MS could do well putting an HD-DVD player in the next XBox as their optical format. It would be backward compatible with DVD, yet not compete with hi-def downloads. Perhaps this is the scenario amir is referring to when he says some things will unfold several years from now.

There is no plan B.

Warners move tipped the scales.
HD DVD support will wither away very fast.
First the hardware retailers are going to drop HD DVD players. We will see consumers are going to ignore HD DVD. There will be minimal (bargain hunters) (if at all) influx of new consumers buying into HD DVD.
Paramount/Dreamworks will flip and Universal can't hold out on it's own.

It's over for HD DVD.

I predicted that warner was going exclusive rather sooner than later and it happened.
I thought HD DVD was the obvious choice for warner given their history with the DVD Forum. But I did not rule out br.

The disc sales ratio numbers are not the reason why w went blu. Any analyst can see what it took for the BDA to sustain the 2:1 ratio after the Paramount descision.
They BDA members didn't have a downward pricing spiral in mind.

One shop doing 160m and the other doing 100m is not a good reason to close a 100m business.

I fear that the warner move has to do with, I suspect, the stalling HDM growth the last quarters. The adoption rate to HDM is far to low. HDM adoption showed signs of being stuck in a niche market. Warner must have come to that conclusion or they where payed big time by BDA members otherwise there most consumer/industry unfriendly move fefies all logic.
The sales number we saw where mostly to the early adopter consumer base fueled by bogo's and early adopters going neutral.

Reasons fror slow consumer adoption:
High price levels.
Consumer apathy: SD DVD is good enough for 90% of the market (screen size : viewing distance)
Format war

Warner doesn't care anymore about replacing DVD


Blu ray is not going to replace DVD.
BDA members are serious about establishing higher prive levels for HDM. They still think this outdated new format adoption model is going to work. Think again thid time the competition is not a tape with long spool times and lousy image quality.

Warner doomed the industry to a multi billion dollar investement to get br production capacity to mass market levels.
Higher authoring costs and many QC issues with the myrad of java issues across different player implementations will be a big problem. Early adopters may accept longer loading times and bugs associated with the vm technology but normal consumers will not.


Indies are robbed of the option to release HDM with lower setup fees. AACS is mandatory now. A sad day for real movie buffs.

For other regions it's bad.
New br releases are 34 to 40 euro retail. $45 ..$50
HDM adoption in europe is not happening with these prices.
Although br does show a better sales ratio it wasn't going anywhere.
The reason HD DVD does poor is that Toshiba never was one of the big cd electric brands. Beacuse of that retail support for HD DVD was abysmal from the get go.

Warner picked the format that is going to make the most money from a HDM in a niche market.

I can see this happening too....also food for thought.......
Maybe you'll want to import a movie from a different region, only to find you also need to import a player from that region because region-free players don't exist.

Or maybe you'll want to burn some home movies on to a Blu-ray Disc to show family and friends, only to find that since your disc isn't AACS encoded, your Blu-ray player will refuse to play it.

Or perhaps you'll want to make a personal copy of your favorite movie to take on the road, only to find that BD+ frustrates you at every turn, and there is no managed copy option because Blu-ray players don't have USB ports or network connections.

Or maybe you'll try to play an interesting special feature on one of your blu-ray discs, only to find that you need to buy an entirely new player to get access to it.

And when (not if) one of the scenarios above happens, you'll curse and be disappointed and frustrated by Blu-ray's anti-consumer nature. But remember this: there was a format that didn't have any of those problems or hassles. It was called HD DVD. And you rejected it. Quite simply, you brought it on yourself.

The raping has already begun; Sony Blu-ray player prices have already gone up in the wake of the Warner announcement.

Too bad Toshiba and the gang did not educate consumers better about the formats....I think the DRM issue will turn off a lot of consumers to Blu-Ray....This is a shot in the dark, but maybe Ads about the DRM can help.....Maybe too little too late.....I'm red, and bleeding, but it's only a flesh wound.....

Don

I suspect that without serious competition to drive down prices, HDM is going to be the next Laserdisk. The acceptance curve will be so long something else will take over. So you may want HD DVD to survive.

Yeah because we all know with DVD that Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, LG, Pioneer, Phillips and Sharp never competed with each other and drove down the price of their players.

You really don't understand do you?

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

"Scorched Earth" - ever hear about that?

And PLEASE . . . no diatribes or drivel about what is good for the consumer because the consumer is LAST on the list of what matters to studios and large corporations.

Scorched Earth is a good strategy if you're Attila or Gengis, but for people just hoping to watch HD movies peacefully, or for companies mandated by their shareholders to act responsiby to increase their value, what is the value of dragging down the whole world out of spite?

Toshiba and MSFT are better than that.

What are your thoughts?
After reading your well written and very well thought out ideas, one things seems to be missing. At what point is HD DVD profitable under any of the scenarios you mentioned? We all know the whole format war was about royalty dollars, and I just don't see how any of your options provides enough of those for Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, and Paramount to cover all of the price cuts and subsidizing you mentioned. The only reason these companies would have to want to have HD DVD survive is if they could make money in the end, and I struggle to find an a way they can do that at this point.

The Warner announcement didn't really do anything positive for Blu Ray. Warner titles were already coming out on Blu Ray, so there was no gain. It was just a severe loss for HD DVD dropping their movie base from 50% to 30%. The only reason both sides have survived to this point is that each one had at least 50% of the market due to Warner (and for a while Paramount) contributing to both sides.

The only incentive for the HD DVD group to continue is to slow the adoption of HDM (Blu Ray) to let SD DVD continue to win. But, I don't think this is good for any of them in the long run as SD DVD hardware is cheap now, and software numbers continue to decline. They need another hot product, and it seems jumping to Blu Ray and helping promote it is the best way for both HD DVD hardware and software backers to start becoming serious players in the HDM world.

I just cannot believe the delusion around here. Seriously.

Some of you really need to "man up" and accept reality.

The only strategy for toshiba is a graceful exit strategy, so they don't look like fools prolonging a pointless battle.

The right thing for Toshiba to do is start building dual format players at an affordable price.

Keep in mind the Toshiba and Sony are working on a deal to work out the Cell division.

Which is worth 858 million USD for Sony and is not complete until March 2008.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/10/18/sony-sells-cell-to-toshiba/

It is kind of interesting... Will it give Toshiba control over Cell production? Or if Toshiba can back out of this deal before its finalized will the 858 M loss revenue for Sony create some problems with any of their secret BD deals they got going on?

Businesses don't make quid pro quo deals for passionate reasons. Pragmatics is all that is involved.

I just cannot believe the delusion around here. Seriously.

Some of you really need to "man up" and accept reality.

The reality is that Time Warner has announced that as of June 1st they will be backing BD exclusively.

We have yet to hear the HD DVD PG response to this.

Keep it in your pants till ALL the announcements have been made.;)

The strategy should be to bow out gracefully and spare the consumers any further ambiguities. Sony did it many times and certainly when they lost the first dvd war with Toshiba.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

Despite the criticisms when UMD can survive this long why can't HD DVD ? UMD still sells well in Japan.

Because PSPs have been selling as fast as Wiis for the past few months. HD DVD since the start hasn't sold as many players as the PSP does in a quarter. Also, Sony has the ability to sustain it's proprietary formats for longer because it owns both the hardware and software side of things. UMD movies don't sell very well, and it seems most new releases are only from Sony owned studios. But, the format will last for a while since it's the game media for the popular PSP.

The raping has already begun; Sony Blu-ray player prices have already gone up in the wake of the Warner announcement.



I think you're mixing up your facts. Prices usually go up on electronics this week of the year. The cut rate prices for the holidays do not last into January on anything else. The Best Buy ad on my doorstep this morning, shows the A30 for $299 and the S300 for $399. Does this mean HD DVD has started raising their prices too? I also notice several televisions that are selling for $300-$600 more than before Christmas.

Fritzilla, while you have obviously put a lot of effort and thought behind the post, the message is very clear after the Warner announcement.

It is best for all folks (red/blue/purple) to get behind the Blu-Ray format to ensure its success over SD-DVD.

As an HD-DVD supporter I just think the following needs to happen.

1) Toshiba/Universal/Paramount should concede the war and work towards announcing schedules for BD releases.
2) BDA and Toshiba should work towards helping the million or so consumers who chose the defeated format and ensure HD-DVD gets legacy support somewhere down the line in a few players.
3) BDA should continue with aggressive marketing of the format because defeating SD-DVD and taking the format beyond enthusiast support is going to take a hell lot of work.
4) For new HD-DVD owners, WB (who I still think screwed the consumer by not announcing this pre-christmas and arguably assisted in creating upwards of 200k new HD-DVD owners) should come up with some exchange program/coupons for loyal customers to purchase new BD titles.
5) Work at increased pace towards solving the whole profile nonsense and announce full-spec players soon.

Now I realize, BDA/WB need do nothing of the sort and milk the victory for what it is worth, but if they are serious about the war against SD-DVD, they will do good by helping early adopters and the few hundred thousand folks who jumped over the Christmas period switch over seamlessly to the Blu-side.

I, for one, welcome my new Blu overlords. The war's over guys and it was a good fight which ultimately helped consumers on both sides but let's be gracious in letting it go.
Pretty much agree with this guy.

HD DVD is dead. No turn around.

There comes a time in war when reality must supersede passion.

I think it's time to talk with General Grant.

--- CHAS

Read this. http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Coplan.pdf It took 6 years for DVD to get high penetration, and the relative improvement from VHS to DVD was much greater than from DVD to HDM. We are a year into HDM? The video buying public already has access to the catalogue, and probably owns most of what it wants.

The way to replace DVD is (or was) evolutionary. BD can't do that.

I think you're mixing up your facts. Prices usually go up on electronics this week of the year. The cut rate prices for the holidays do not last into January on anything else. The Best Buy ad on my doorstep this morning, shows the A30 for $299 and the S300 for $399. Does this mean HD DVD has started raising their prices too? I also notice several televisions that are selling for $300-$600 more than before Christmas.

Perhaps that is so, I wouldn't buy either on at that price, I have an A2 that performs great, so I'm not going to debate the issue....I just know as a J6P type of consumer, Sony's record of arrogance in the CE market....Even during this war, the constant pronouncements of HD-DVD is dead, etc....I don't trust Sony to do a good job of being consumer friendly, and there DRM as I have posted earlier, scares the hell out of me......

Don

The reality is that Time Warner has announced that as of June 1st they will be backing BD exclusively.

We have yet to hear the HD DVD PG response to this.

Keep it in your pants till ALL the announcements have been made.;)

i don't see how any announcement from the HD DVD PG could affect anything at this point.
I mean, what are you hoping they'll say? none of the blu studios are going to switch or go neutral. The joe 6 pack media (usa today, ny times, etc.) have all run articles saying the war is over, blu won, which means those low prices on the HD DVD players are suddenly going to look like the desperate act of a fading format. What can the HD DVD group say or do to affect any of that?

I'm still buying Zodiac on Tuesday, though!

Hats off to you Lee for still posting here. After the Paramount announcement I noticed that a lot of BD supporters who "disappeared" for a while.

Cheers,

Grant

. . . and there DRM as I have posted earlier, scares the hell out of me......

Don

I keep reading this, and it always confuses me that people fixate on BD+. I've got an xa2 and a ps3. Functionally, there is no difference between the 2 drm schemes. And they've both been broken, so either format is as easy to rip as the other.
Yes, it's lame that both formats include DRM. But there's no difference to the end user between the two schemes.

Question:
How much longer would we be able to see a new format to emerge like the HVD?
http://www.hvd-forum.org/

Would this be the format that would trully wipe out all current home media?

What are your thoughts? Again, please only post if you take this seriously, if you care about HD DVD, and would like to contribute. I am not trying to make this a new Blu-ray vs HD DVD thread.

These companies will decide to do what is best for their shareholders. No other objective in mind. Keep the shareholders happy by keeping the stock price up. Any brainstorming will have that as the objective.

So all of our strategies will go unheard (unless of course you work for one of these companies and have a voice). Interesting thread, but remember...the stockholders pay these 'big wigs' salary, so keeping them happy is their only goal.

i don't see how any announcement from the HD DVD PG could affect anything at this point.
I mean, what are you hoping they'll say? none of the blu studios are going to switch or go neutral. The joe 6 pack media (usa today, ny times, etc.) have all run articles saying the war is over, blu won, which means those low prices on the HD DVD players are suddenly going to look like the desperate act of a fading format. What can the HD DVD group say or do to affect any of that?

I'm still buying Zodiac on Tuesday, though!

BD has won the format war! . . . for the 10th time no less!

lee, that was a serious question you avoided. i really want to know what announcement or action you think the HD DVD group could take that would affect the current shift in momentum. Please keep this discussion moving without the histrionics.

Here is what HD-DVD has to do to survive/thrive.

1. Make sure that Universal and Paramount don't waiver on their support for HD-DVD.

2. Have a $99 player all the time.

3. Get Microsoft to include a HD-DVD player in the xbox.

4. No more Special Edition discs without being a Combo Disc. Market it as the Special Edition with all the extras, with one other extra, an HD-DVD version of the movie is included.

5. Get more studio support, although I think this will be very hard to do.

The reality is that Time Warner has announced that as of June 1st they will be backing BD exclusively.

We have yet to hear the HD DVD PG response to this.

Keep it in your pants till ALL the announcements have been made.;)

Lee, wake up. lol Does it matter what the HD DVD PG says? I just can't believe the denial and refusal to accept reality with some folks. Oh well. Believe what you like. :)

lee, that was a serious question you avoided. i really want to know what announcement or action you think the HD DVD group could take that would affect the current shift in momentum. Please keep this discussion moving without the histrionics.

You obviously like to speculate. I do not. I prefer the facts and we have yet to hear what the facts are.

THAT is my answer to your question.

Lee, wake up. lol Does it matter what the HD DVD PG says? I just can't believe the denial and refusal to accept reality with some folks. Oh well. Believe what you like. :)

You are reading too many BLOGS and such.

You should really wait for the response from the HD DVD PG before you call the game over.

What would I do if I were the HD DVD Promotional Group? If I wanted to stay in this thing I would have each member sign an "exclusivity" agreement for say 2 or 3 years so there is absolutely no way for any movement away from HD DVD for that period of time. This of course, assures the marketplace of continued support. I would then use the immense power of DVD to sell HD DVD. Sell combo or combo like products with no separate DVD for a close to DVD price! Colour the HD DVD side red so the consumer can easily be trained as to which side goes down. The HD DVD on the "combo" is advertised as a bonus, to be used or not. Use DVD packaging, but with the red theme and stick them in the DVD section. Let DVD do all the heavy lifting. Toshiba now needs a $99 player - this really shouldn't be hard to do. When something is cheap and easy and and offers great value the consumer will gravitate towards it.

Will the HD DVD Promotional Group give these suggestions a try? I doubt it, but if they do then IMO HD DVD has a fighting chance.

The advantages of the combo or combo like release only (no DVD release) are:

1) saves retail and rental space;
2) give the consumer something for free or nearly free;
3) gets HD DVD into every place DVD is and that's a lot of places (rental and retail);
4) easy to rationalize the purchase of a cheap HD DVD player and once this is done the purchase of more software;
4) Completely takes distribution of HD DVD out of the equation - it doesn't matter whether or not BB wants to rent HD DVDs - now they have no choice!; and
5) makes BD look very expensive unless it adds a separate DVD to every Blu-Ray and this of course allows the consumer to ebay the separate DVD thus cutting into DVD sales for that disc!

Oh, almost forgot - IT COMPLETELY SCEWS THE WEEK TO WEEK SALES RATIO!!! The format with only 2 studios supporting it will win every week's sales!

Will the "curse" of HD DVD become its savior? I don't know, but I'd give it a shot!

Cheers,

Grant

As I discuss in this poll thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=970619), this was (is still ?) the best feature hd dvd format has over blu-ray format but it was never promoted that heavily or consistently and many hd dvd early adopters were in fact against it shooting down their own format.

This should have been hd dvd approach from the beginning, but I understand also why it probably was not. Money. There simply has been the financial backing bear the cost of introducing hd dvd format as part of standard dvd offerings.

It costs something to create high def content. It cost something to press a twin or combo disk rather than a standard dvd disk. If added to standard dvd most people don't seem to want to pay a difference. Someone has to pay for it and no one stepped up to do so.

I'd say even the 2 Hollywood studios + Toshiba + MS could in fact still make this approach a challenge to BD but as demonstrated so far, the financial will to do it is simply not there. Evidently the business case for this approach cannot be made effectively. Either that or the movie industry feels the case for a new optical format is a better business case.

You obviously like to speculate. I do not. I prefer the facts and we have yet to hear what the facts are.

THAT is my answer to your question.

But you have no guesses as to what those might be? Then what good are you? :D C'mon, man, lighten up and have some fun. Take a guess! This IS supposed to be a brainstorming thread, after all . . . .Speculation is virtually demanded of you!

BD has won the format war! . . . for the 10th time no less!

But do you think Blu-Ray will win the SD DVD to Blu-Ray war?
I don't think so.

Blu-Ray may wind up buried along with HD DVD..

Bring on HVD!

But you have no guesses as to what those might be? Then what good are you? :D C'mon, man, lighten up and have some fun. Take a guess!

In a situation where anything can happen - it is impossible to "guess" an outcome.

But here are a few facts for you to think about . . .

1. Toshiba makes about $1 billion per year from the IP's from DVD.

2. WB and Fox rejected the offer that Toshiba/HD DVD PG offered - that money is not spent (rumor; $430 million)

Like I said. I prefer to wait. Many here have committed themselves. Being the mega-poster that I am - I have to tread carefully about what I post so it is not thrown up in my face later. I am sure you understand.

omg, that has to be the funniest post ever.
Yes, lee, i quite understand that your credibility as a 'mega-poster' is at stake. heh.

In a situation where anything can happen - it is impossible to "guess" an outcome.

But here are a few facts for you to think about . . .

1. Toshiba makes about $1 billion per year from the IP's from DVD.

2. WB and Fox rejected the offer that Toshiba/HD DVD PG offered - that money is not spent (rumor; $430 million)

Like I said. I prefer to wait. Many here have committed themselves. Being the mega-poster that I am - I have to tread carefully about what I post so it is not thrown up in my face later. I am sure you understand.

I appreciate your attitude.

However, the minute the mainstream press and places like Cnet started recommending HD DVD as a "no buy" the game was up.

Only the biggest die hards, or the most ignorant, will be touching a HD DVD disc or player after Friday.

Sure, HD DVD might decide to fight on a little longer, but in my opinion, HD DVD blew its load during xmas with the price war.

Very simple really........should have been done 2 years ago. Toshiba needs to release a sub $99 combo player. Stop the BOGO crap and inflated prices and make HDM the same price as a new DVD release $10-17.

Mass adoption is what HDM has always needed. When J6P's dvd player goes on the fritz he needs to be able to cheaply upgrade to the next format. Phase out new title SD DVD production by 2010 and SD DVD players as a whole. The fact that BD and HD-DVD can downrez to SD has been a godsend for J6P.

It needed to be a clean, clear message sent to J6P that a new HD player will work with your current TV. Leave it to the fanboys to get themselves a HDTV and appropriately set the 1080p output in the player's menu.

Sub $99 combo player, come on Toshiba and advertise the thing during the new American Idol season like crazy and for the Super Bowl That's the escape plan. And if the rest of the industry hates you, oh well..............

For those who enjoy reading BLOGS - please read this one:

Blu-Ray Scores Big in Format War, But It Ain't Over Despite Money and Exaggeration

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/248420/Blu_Ray_Scores_Big_in_Format_War_But_It_Ain_t_Over_Despite_M oney_and_Exaggeration

Could it be that (in secret labs and manufacturing facilities in Redmond, Washington and outside Tokyo) work is being finalized on V3 rockets meant to be launched carrying tactical nuclear warheads against ALL Blu-ray player manufacturing facilities and ALL Blu-ray disc replication facilities, worldwide?

Short of such massive, simultaneous action there really is no hope for HD-DVD.

omg, that has to be the funniest post ever.
Yes, lee, i quite understand that your credibility as a 'mega-poster' is at stake. heh.

Go over to BD.com and search the forums using my name as the key search words - click "show posts". I am sure you will get a good laugh. Up to 4 pages.

http://forum.blu-ray.com/search.php?searchid=361634

You obviously like to speculate. I do not. I prefer the facts and we have yet to hear what the facts are.

THAT is my answer to your question.

Fact: Warner is by far the largest and most influential studio with a high percentage off ALL catalogue titles.

Fact: When Toshiba was working on the DVD it aligned itself with Warner and Sony was forced to capitulate (you can't fight Warner and Sony know this).

Fact: Toshiba (because of DVD) knew that Warner would be the deciding factor in the format war.

Fact: Warner decided.

Go over to BD.com and search the forums using my name as the key search words - click "show posts". I am sure you will get a good laugh. Up to 4 pages.

http://forum.blu-ray.com/search.php?searchid=361634Yes, it's all about Lee.:):)

Fact: Warner is by far the largest and most influential studio with a high percentage off ALL catalogue titles.

Fact: When Toshiba was working on the DVD it aligned itself with Warner and Sony was forced to capitulate (you can't fight Warner and Sony know this).

Fact: Toshiba (because of DVD) knew that Warner would be the deciding factor in the format war.

Fact: Warner decided.

And your facts only reflect 2007. If 2008 is like 2007 - HDM is a total bust - as far as titles released.

And we know for a FACT that people are NOT double dipping for catalog titles.

You think it's over . . great that is your opinion - you have committed . . I have not.

Like I said - I prefer to wait until ALL the facts are in.

For those who enjoy reading BLOGS - please read this one:

Blu-Ray Scores Big in Format War, But It Ain't Over Despite Money and Exaggeration

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/248420/Blu_Ray_Scores_Big_in_Format_War_But_It_Ain_t_Over_Despite_M oney_and_Exaggeration

Lee, nothing new there. In fact it only solidifies the reality that HD DVD is finished. The editorials critique of the LA Times rings hollow as it is the opinion of most that this thing is over.

One entry caught my eye though "The New York Times notes Toshiba sent Yoshihide Fujii, the executive in charge of its HD DVD business, to Warner three times recently. " I guess this poor guy may find himself out of a job!

For those who enjoy reading BLOGS - please read this one:

Blu-Ray Scores Big in Format War, But It Ain't Over Despite Money and Exaggeration

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/248420/Blu_Ray_Scores_Big_in_Format_War_But_It_Ain_t_Over_Despite_M oney_and_Exaggeration

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pear Harbor?!?!?!?!?!????????

However, I was asking for those interested to hypothesize what possible steps could be taken by HD DVD group in light of the announcement. What are theoretical steps or strategies.

Personally, I agree in principle, that we need one format for long term viability. I also knew from the beginning that eventually this day would come.

So, my OP is more academic than realistic, but nonetheless an interesting topic for those that wish to discuss possible future moves by the HD DVD forum. It's highly likely that nothing comes of it, heck, that's the case with 50% of the discussion threads in the high def forums. But it's theraputic for those that wanted to see HD DVD survive.


Good points. Good topic, theraputic is a good word too as many are pretty passionate about this and the truth is that the movie industry screwed a bunch of consumers around while they tried to solve their own disagreement on how to best make more cash from those same consumers.

Although it's likely simply 'over' for hd dvd with either a slow or quick death possible, it is true that 2 of the big Hollywood studios combined with MS support and the ability to put sell twin/combo disks among standard dvds would definitely keep a war going.

The money and business case is not there to indicate that this would happen. Game over.

Yes, it's all about Lee.:):)

Seems to be doesn't?:p

I have many adoring fans don't I?

Your name over there in that link?

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pear Harbor?!?!?!?!?!????????

Did that just happen? :confused: :D

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pear Harbor?!?!?!?!?!????????

It was the Japanese:p

And it wasn't over when they dropped THE BOMB on Hiroshima either. It was over when they dropped the second bomb on Nagasaki

Hypocrit - speculation is exactly what you've been doing. "Wait. . .just wait to see what HD DVD PG has to say". . .the implication being there's a big announcement that will once again turn the tide. UGH - Wake up, grow up and wise up. It ain't happenin'

I'm a hypocrite? By asking to wait till all the facts are in? I am not speculating - i am simple waiting. YOU on the other hand have committed. OK - let's see how it turns out. Shouldn't be long to wait - 3 or 4 days at the most.

Seriously - here's some speculation for you- based on facts. Toshiba isn't run by idiots. They no they can't sustain a war any longer other than by bleeding massive amounts of cash. They aren't going to screw their business partners leaving a bitter bitter taste in Universal's and Paramount's mouths. Shareholders of those studios will no long sit by and watch management make bad decision (which is exactly why management wont). It's over. Continuing to give false hope is harmful to the unaware.

That is your opinion only. I have yet to see Toshiba or Paramount or Universal or the HD DVD PG respond. YOU are the one spreading FUD.:(

But hanging onto false hopes isn't what got me angry about your posts. It's the talking out of both sides of you mouth that did. You were speculating - you were just being coy about it.

Nope - I have said since the announcement - what will the HD DVD PG's reponse to this be other than the brief PR that Toshiba made?

I have given no "battle plan" for HD DVD to stage a comeback. I am simple waiting.

If that bothers you? Tough titties baby!

This just in from the 10AM CES Toshiba Press Conference:

VP of Digital A/V Marketing: "As you can imagine this is a tough day for me... I expected to come here today to share the successes of HD DVD..." "It's difficult for me to read all the pundits declare that HD DVD is dead, but we've been declared dead before." "HD DVD is the only format approved by the DVD Forum" so every one meets a standard.

http://gizmodo.com/341216/toshiba-press-conference-liveblog

I keep reading this, and it always confuses me that people fixate on BD+. I've got an xa2 and a ps3. Functionally, there is no difference between the 2 drm schemes. And they've both been broken, so either format is as easy to rip as the other.
Yes, it's lame that both formats include DRM. But there's no difference to the end user between the two schemes.

No difference to the end user?? Both schemes have been broken? I'll believe that when I install my stand-alone Blu-Ray player and encountering it......when Sony or the studios feel like implementing the DRM....To me BD+ DRM is invasive, and has the potential to really tick off consumers, it has already turned me off, and if joe 6P gets educated about it, he may get turned off too...I'm not talking about techies, I'm talking about average consumers....

Don

LOL. Universal and Paramount cannot equal the output of Warner Bros, MGM, Fox, Sony, and Lionsgate. Heck Blu-ray has so many studios now I feel like I may even be forgetting one or two. The whole point is Toshiba players and 2 studios DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A VIABLE MOVIE FORMAT.

You left out the XXX industry. And HD-DVD dominates the nascent but growing and profitable market for HDM porn.

Digital Playground founder Joone says the decision hinged on cost. “The advantage of HD DVD over Blu-ray is the cost factor, both in manufacturing and the players,” he says, adding that the rest of the porn industry is “basically behind HD DVD because of manufacturing costs. It costs a lot more to put out a title on Blu-ray.”

But the competition between the two high-def formats -- known as Blu-ray and HD DVD -- is muddled by a number of factors, including accusations by adult-entertainment companies that the Blu-ray camp is discouraging DVD manufacturers from accepting their business because it doesn't want to be associated with adult content. That forces the adult-entertainment companies to go to the HD DVD camp. Blu-ray is backed by a consortium led by Sony Corp., while HD DVD is backed by a group led by Toshiba Corp.

This just in from the 10AM CES Toshiba Press Conference:



http://gizmodo.com/341216/toshiba-press-conference-liveblog

Less than 5 minutes long and "...She looks like she's trying to not break down onstage or something...":eek:

I'm a hypocrite? By asking to wait till all the facts are in? I am not speculating - i am simple waiting. YOU on the other hand have committed. OK - let's see how it turns out. Shouldn't be long to wait - 3 or 4 days at the most.


Your asking people to wait for all the facts yet you won't wait for CES and the BD player announcments.

Time to lockeroonnie. I thought this thread was about HD-DVD strategy, not to continue the same debate going on in umpteen other threads. Even when the OP asks to keep this kind of stuff out of here, it appears others can't be considerate enough to do so. I don't understand how a disc format can make people act so rudely. Perhaps because they've never won anything in their own life so they have to live vicariously through an optical disc and a Japanese company. Sad, really.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pear Harbor?!?!?!?!?!????????

That was tremendous. We need more animal house references on this board. :D

Less than 5 minutes long and "...She looks like she's trying to not break down onstage or something...":eek:

hehehe

All they have to do is produce as many titles as they did with WB on board.

And the WB deal doesn't take hold until June 1st - 5 months from now.

Sorry to spoil the BD Love Fest. it is not over yet.

The HD DVD PG has yet to respond.
Poor poor little Lee, everyone knows the rumors that Uni has been bi-curious for some time now and Para/DW would like to make some money and with no Lucas and M.Bay badmouthing BD at every turn they(Para/DW)feels pretty stupid with the position they've put themselves into. I'm thinking three weeks tops for Uni to go neutral and for Para/DW to figure out some way to get out using their escape clause.

What would I do if I were the HD DVD Promotional Group? If I wanted to stay in this thing I would have each member sign an "exclusivity" agreement for say 2 or 3 years so there is absolutely no way for any movement away from HD DVD for that period of time. This of course, assures the marketplace of continued support. I would then use the immense power of DVD to sell HD DVD. Sell combo or combo like products with no separate DVD for a close to DVD price! Colour the HD DVD side red so the consumer can easily be trained as to which side goes down. The HD DVD on the "combo" is advertised as a bonus, to be used or not. Use DVD packaging, but with the red theme and stick them in the DVD section. Let DVD do all the heavy lifting. Toshiba now needs a $99 player - this really shouldn't be hard to do. When something is cheap and easy and and offers great value the consumer will gravitate towards it.

Will the HD DVD Promotional Group give these suggestions a try? I doubt it, but if they do then IMO HD DVD has a fighting chance. Edit: What's really ironic about this strategy is that every DVD purchase and rental, and yes, even those only wishing to support BD will actually be promoting HD DVD when they rent or purchase a Universal or Paramount DVD! HD DVD should be advertising how great DVD is and that HD DVD included makes it even better.

The advantages of the combo or combo like release only (no DVD release) are:

1) saves retail and rental space;
2) give the consumer something for free or nearly free;
3) gets HD DVD into every place DVD is and that's a lot of places (rental and retail);
4) easy to rationalize the purchase of a cheap HD DVD player and once this is done the purchase of more software;
4) Completely takes distribution of HD DVD out of the equation - it doesn't matter whether or not BB wants to rent HD DVDs - now they have no choice!; and
5) makes BD look very expensive unless it adds a separate DVD to every Blu-Ray and this of course allows the consumer to ebay the separate DVD thus cutting into DVD sales for that disc!

Oh, almost forgot - IT COMPLETELY SCEWS THE WEEK TO WEEK SALES RATIO!!! The format with only 2 studios supporting it will win every week's sales!

Will the "curse" of HD DVD become its savior? I don't know, but I'd give it a shot!

Cheers,

Grant

This is the only thing that would work. But we're dreaming, aren't we ?

You left out the XXX industry. And HD-DVD dominates the nascent but growing and profitable market for HDM porn.

The porn industry is now releasing titles on both formats

Digital Playground was previously HD-DVD exclusive and is now releasing on bluray, too.

BD has won the format war! . . . for the 10th time no less!

Finally Lee makes some sense.

The porn industry is now releasing titles on both formats

Digital Playground was previously HD-DVD exclusive and is now releasing on bluray, too.

So, what title did you last receive and can you give a short PQ/AQ review? :)

Finally Lee makes some sense.

Thank you . . you have yet to though.;) Especially your last post.:p

As an "official" HDM format, HD-DVD is dead. However, this does not mean it cannot survive in the wild.

Toshiba should make HD-DVD disc/player recordable, then give up all IP, for free.

Then, for every exclusive blu-ray release, and for each 5-hour digital download, there will be 10 HD-DVD backups in the wild.

Blu-ray can dominate their 5% market share. HD-DVD will simply take over DVD's market. The future can still be RED!!!

Seriously, WB's move will actually slow down the market penetration of HDM. More people will go back on the fence without deeply discounted movies and players. These include many owners of the non-upgradable profile 1.0 players. The rest will do their research, and realize that, without a completed profile, their bet is on the $399 PS3, which won't be good news for other CE manufacturers.

"Charter Member Of Early Adopters Anonymous"

Hi, my name is Shawn, I'm a HD DVD Addict! :cool:

Your asking people to wait for all the facts yet you won't wait for CES and the BD player announcments.

? - I am just posting news articles as they come in. Something wrong with that?

This is the only thing that would work. But we're dreaming, aren't we ?

I honestly have no idea what would work, but I'm not sure if this would be the "only" thing either. I just don't know. But if every release is a combo disc, then the price has to match the consumer expectations as well, which is NOT paying $40 for a movie. I don't mind paying that price because I do love movies, I love HDM and I'm willing to pay the price for it. But for the millions of people buying SD DVDs, suddenly they would have to pay almost twice the regular price just because there is a "bonus" included in their SD DVD ?... I know The Bourne Ultimatum has been a huge seller, but I guess it would have been even bigger it wasn't a combo, in other words less expensive (btw, I have nothing against combos, they have worked flawlessly for me). Of course they'd have to lower the price, but I doubt it would go to $19.99.

In terms of potential strategies. If Toshiba and partners are serious about continued success of their format, they need to drop a serious amount of cash at the feet of a BD studio and take it outright for the red camp. One thing this format war has illustrated is that cash talks.

Wow, there are some real bitter enders around here. Don't forget that HD-DVD already did announce their first response ... they cancelled their presentation at CES. The big topic right now at their meetings they are having is most certainly about if it's possible for them to continue, or if they should fold up the tent.

What I suspect will happen is that they will continue to support HD-DVD while each entering the Blu-ray market. Toshiba will have dual format players long after everyone else has given up on them and Universal and Paramount will each continue to make HD-DVD versions of their movies available while also releasing in Blu-ray.

That's the only reasonable thing to have happen at this point. Escalating the fight only does unnecessary damage to everyone involved.


I also like how reports from the NY Times and Wall Street Journal weren't enough proof of $150m payout to P/DW by HD-DVD, but unsubstantiated forum posts are enough proof of $1bn in payouts to Fox and Warner Brothers. Amusing.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?!?!?!?!????????

Germans?

Thank you . . you have yet to though.;) Especially your last post.:p
Ah Lee I do love it when you're snappy, though I must say you look better without the tinfoil hat.:rolleyes:

But really dream a little dream for me. Now what happened to that picture of the Unicorn.

After reading your well written and very well thought out ideas, one things seems to be missing. At what point is HD DVD profitable under any of the scenarios you mentioned? We all know the whole format war was about royalty dollars, and I just don't see how any of your options provides enough of those for Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, and Paramount to cover all of the price cuts and subsidizing you mentioned. The only reason these companies would have to want to have HD DVD survive is if they could make money in the end, and I struggle to find an a way they can do that at this point.


Very good point. Frankly I don't know which side was loosing more money up to now. You have potentially a billion paid to Warner and Fox, who know how much paid to Disney. That's JUST TO BE ON THE Blu side. That money comes from somewhere (Probably Sony). Then you have all these BOGO free deals, that's not cheap. Then there is the huge losses on the PS3 machines for Sony (retailers only make about $7 on each box). Finally, Blu-ray is supposed to be more expensive to fabricate yet the discs has been priced similarly to HD DVD, so how much are they really making on software?

I fail to see how any of the companies involved are making money.

In fact, HD DVD, with it's lower manufacturing costs, seemed to be the only way to get lower prices for the consumer and still offer margins to studios. You think if an HD DVD is $30 and is significantly cheaper to make then Blu-ray that they aren't in a better position to make money long term?

And with CE manufacturers pricing in the hundreds, they won't be selling much of these players for a while in Blu-ray hands. So prices won't go down for a while. Of course Sony will sell a boat load of PS3s (at great loss).

You are right, neither of my solutions really make the studios rich.

The only strategy that makes sense is to stop the bleeding and move to Blu-Ray. No need to throw good money after bad. These HD-DVD companies bet on a format that lost (like Sony and Betamax) and the gig is up. Like Sony making VHS post-Betamax, Toshiba will be making Blu-Ray players soon enough. It is the only realistic strategy, and that's why it will happen sooner or later.

But with a spokesperson for the HD DVD Promo Group privately describing its own press event as a “wake”, the future for the format looks bleak at present.


http://whathifi.com/home-cinema/archive/2008/01/06/ces-news-toshiba-bravely-claims-suggestions-of-hd-dvd-s-demise-are-greatly-exaggerated.aspx

For those who enjoy reading BLOGS - please read this one:

Blu-Ray Scores Big in Format War, But It Ain't Over Despite Money and Exaggeration

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/248420/Blu_Ray_Scores_Big_in_Format_War_But_It_Ain_t_Over_Despite_M oney_and_Exaggeration

Good reading Lee. I feel the same way. It ain't over 'till it's over!

I too, want to wait until we hear from the HD DVD people.

Go over to BD.com and search the forums using my name as the key search words - click "show posts". I am sure you will get a good laugh. Up to 4 pages.

http://forum.blu-ray.com/search.php?searchid=361634

Let's see over 8500 posts in the very short time of less than a year? AT LEAST 75% of which bolstering HD DVD or ripping BD? I think it is mostly because you have been one of the most vocal about the format war that made you so popular at blu-ray.com . Because if you hear anything 6000 times there's bound to be least some people start believing you regardless if they should or not.

The only strategy that makes sense is to stop the bleeding and move to Blu-Ray. No need to throw good money after bad. These HD-DVD companies bet on a format that lost (like Sony and Betamax) and the gig is up. Like Sony making VHS post-Betamax, Toshiba will be making Blu-Ray players soon enough. It is the only realistic strategy, and that's why it will happen sooner or later.

Not true. THe best stategy right now is to market HD DVD as the best upscaling player that also plays HD movies. Then release the TL twin discs that play SD and HD on the same side. Drop the player prices to below $99 and crank out as many as they can. Blu will continue to stay above $250 so it will be along time before mass adoption (they need to be below $150).

Upscalers are killing blu-ray right now. Just take over that market and push the combos and the TL-twin.

Not true. THe best stategy right now is to market HD DVD as the best upscaling player that also plays HD movies. Then release the TL twin discs that play SD and HD on the same side. Drop the player prices to below $99 and crank out as many as they can. Blu will continue to stay above $250 so it will be along time before mass adoption (they need to be below $150).

Upscalers are killing blu-ray right now. Just take over that market and push the combos and the TL-twin.

Why would I pay more for an upscaling player that supports a dead format? The only strategy that makes sense is supporting Blu-Ray. And that's even more true for Paramount and Universal.

Toshiba, europeans wait your $99 player and will be support HD DVD :)
Release new firmware for playin' 1080p25/720p50 and europeans can release good national HD content and hollywood movie on HD DVD and 3xDVD instead of expensive rotten BD:D

Not true. THe best stategy right now is to market HD DVD as the best upscaling player that also plays HD movies. Then release the TL twin discs that play SD and HD on the same side. Drop the player prices to below $99 and crank out as many as they can. Blu will continue to stay above $250 so it will be along time before mass adoption (they need to be below $150).

Upscalers are killing blu-ray right now. Just take over that market and push the combos and the TL-twin.
Sour grapes much?
MY format choice lost what should we do?
I know let's make it so BD dies too because they really hurt my feelings! Then nobody can enjoy advanced audio and video, that will teach them!!!!
While we are at it lets only release combos at first and price them the same as DVDs because we know how much HD DVD hates profit and is only in it to make customers smile.

Oh and more confusion yeah that sounds like it will work.

You are reading too many BLOGS and such.

You should really wait for the response from the HD DVD PG before you call the game over.

Remember the Paramount announcement? Within 48 hours of that we had FOX announcing a slate of titles, Lionsgate reaffirming their commitment to the format and other studios and CE companies doing the same. Actually, most of that was within 24 hours.

Within 48 hours of the Warner announcement we have one canceled press conference, a 5 minute summary of HD DVD which included a slide showing a dramatic loss of market share and utter silence from the studios.


As an "official" HDM format, HD-DVD is dead. However, this does not mean it cannot survive in the wild.

Toshiba should make HD-DVD disc/player recordable, then give up all IP, for free.

Then, for every exclusive blu-ray release, and for each 5-hour digital download, there will be 10 HD-DVD backups in the wild.

Blu-ray can dominate their 5% market share. HD-DVD will simply take over DVD's market. The future can still be RED!!!

I realize you were part joking, but it wouldn't work. Anything larger than 530GB is not going on an HD DVD and bitrates would be an issue too.

The porn industry is now releasing titles on both formats

Digital Playground was previously HD-DVD exclusive and is now releasing on bluray, too.You conveniently ignored what Digital Playground's founder had to say about HDM: "The advantage of HD DVD over Blu-ray is the cost factor, both in manufacturing and the players,” he says, adding that the rest of the porn industry is “basically behind HD DVD because of manufacturing costs. It costs a lot more to put out a title on Blu-ray."

Is Blu-ray practical for limited-volume titles like XXX and indie productions? Or will it remain the preserve of the big-volume releases the popcorn munchers that do so well with the PS3 demographic?

What Toshiba needs to do to survive & possible succeed past BD:

1) Make a deal with Universal/Paramount for royalty costs to be reduced to: cost of production + $1 + continued exclusivity. (So they (HD DVD group) make 1 dollar per disc, which is still better than $0 if HD DVD dies) and Studios still make close to the same premium, but gives HD DVD group the ability to adjust disc prices.

2) Make a deal with the following studios for 1st to sign contract to disc production cost + $2 + number of guranteed releases per yer.
2nd to sign contract cost + $3 + number of guaranteed releases. etc.
So basically first come first serve basis, whoever wants the better deal better sign quick.

3) Permanently reduce the player costs by $150. HD A3 regular price should be $150. The $100 A2 fire sale left too big of an impression on certain buyers that wanted it, that without a HD DVD player being priced similarly close they wont want to buy it.

4) Reduce HD DVD prices to $24.99 MSRP. This puts it just above DVD's but makes it so much more affordable for everyone. Now people may say well studios will want more money thus higher MSRP. But you have to keep in mind the royalties set on say BD. I'm sure Sony collects a huge premium per disc thus they want to keep the MSRP high. With HD DVD Group taking only a royalty of $1-$7 per disc, you can drastically reduce the price and still make the same profit for the studios.

It sucks for the HD DVD Group to make little profit on such a huge investment, but then again their main goal is to entice the studios and comsumers at this time, not try to feed their pockets. Because if they fail at these two points. HD DVD gets dropped permanently and they make $0. Me personally would rather make $1-7 per disc than $0.

5) Make the 24.99 MSRP price the standard for HD/DVD combo's. Ensure all releases are in combo format. Start mass promoting the combo format as format of choice for DVD owners.
Making sure everyone knows that buying HD/DVD combo version entitles them to the exact DVD version, BUT is future proof as it WILL play in HD if they upgrade into HD DVD later.

This is a huge market that Toshiba has missed in the past. Promote where there is a HUGE user base already. DVD owners will be more willing to spend $5 more for a HD/DVD combo etc. to future proof but not at the current $10-15 price premium for combos.

I've been preaching the 1 sku HD DVD/DVD disc for about 1 year now in another forum (highdefdigest) and to reps at both Toshiba and via emails to the Studios who are/were involved with HD DVD. Now however, the better option would obviously be the TWIN format utilizing the new Triple Layer technology which I understand may be less than 2 months being totally ready for use. This would allow for colour art on the discs since only one side would be playable.
Besides that, there have been a few other suggestions I came up with in a separate post I made yesterday, which I will include in a totally separate post. It has been pretty well established that once stand alone player penetration for HD DVD were to exceed 1.5 million then it would become pretty tough for any studio to ignore the revenue stream offered by sales in that format. This is what has to happen REALLY quickly for Toshiba. They have to get out there with a sub-$100 player immediately and make super deals with major retailers like Wal-Mart & Best Buy to heavily advertise and sell this unit. They would of course have to go full steam ahead on their hardware assembly lines to ensure sufficient availability to meet the demand. Also heavily promoting them as superb DVD players with upconversion capabilities is a big requirement. Dropping your other standard def DVD hardware would be a good thing to do whilst you run such huge sales of such an attractively priced HD DVD player.

I like your message and will have mine done in the near future soon as I marshall up a few more ideas to add to the ones I already envision and posted elsewhere recently.
Dee

Remember the Paramount announcement? Within 48 hours of that we had FOX announcing a slate of titles, Lionsgate reaffirming their commitment to the format and other studios and CE companies doing the same. Actually, most of that was within 24 hours.

Within 48 hours of the Warner announcement we have one canceled press conference, a 5 minute summary of HD DVD which included a slide showing a dramatic loss of market share and utter silence from the studios.

Yep - and we are getting the same crap announcements from both Fox and Disney at CES - 4+ months later.

MY format choice lost what should we do?
I know let's make it so BD dies too because they really hurt my feelings! Then nobody can enjoy advanced audio and video, that will teach them!!!!
While we are at it lets only release combos at first and price them the same as DVDs because we now how much HD DVD hates profit and is only in it to make customers smile.Maybe many people are disappointed that their preferred format, more conducive to low-volume production, has lost and now they are largely shut out of HDM.

Toshiba's strategy may not be anything. They were suppose to reveal their 4th generation HD-DVD players today at CES and there was nothing. They only spoke about HD-DVD for a total of 5 minutes today. Looks like they might be good sports, pack it in, and allow for mass adoption of high def media.

Where did you hear this?

They just introduced the gen3's in September - less than 4 momths ago.

You have a link to back this up? A REAL link and not some Blogger?

Yep - and we are getting the same crap announcements from both Fox and Disney at CES - 4+ months later.

What?

FOX ended it's long drought of releases. How can they be doing the same since they have released the bulk of their previously announced titles?

And please explain your Disney comment.

That is not what I am seeing. Maybe we are looking at different lists? I see Disney and Fox showing a strong line up and continuing to offer great movies on their chosen format.

Better look again - at Disney. Sleeping Beauty, Finding Nemo and National Treasure were already announced. So were some of the catalog titles.

Fox - you want to believe them go right ahead - their track record stinks and we both know it. Still using BD25's and MPEG2 I see.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Toshiba/CES_2008/CES:_HD_DVD_Takes_Backseat_at_Toshiba_Press_Conference/1334

Like I said - a BLOG.:(

...

It's not over yet.

The rumor is that the HD DVD PG will make an announcement after CES . . .after BD has shot it's wad.

Forewarned is forearmed.

It'a all over but the shouting!

The one thing most of you die-hards fail to realize is that the media is declaring HD DVD dead. With a stink like that, it won't much matter what happens in the next couple of weeks.

Yep - and we are getting the same crap announcements from both Fox and Disney at CES - 4+ months later.

Don't know what you are on about, but Fox and Disney releases have been nothing short of amazing. :confused:

They are not using MPEG2. That is FUD. Their picture quality is one of the best for either format. You get the pop that you want in high def. Yes, they push back releases will not argue there. As long as the movies come out, I am happy. Bottom line.


Los Angeles — Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment (TCFHE) said it will ship six movie catalog favorites in the Blu-ray Disc format during the first quarter of 2008.


The titles include the BD debut of “Ice Age,” “Independence Day,” “I, Robot,” “Man On Fire,” “Wall Street,” and “Me, Myself and Irene.”


Highlights among the titles include a Blu-ray exclusive trivia track and BD-Java-enabled video game called Alien Scavenger Hunt with the “Independence Day” release, which is slated for March 11. The game challenges players to correctly identify items in select scenes to unlock additional bonus features.


“Ice Age,” which is slated for a March 4 release, will be authored in MPEG2 compression and presented on a 25GB disc with English 5.1 DTS HD Lossless Master Audio and French and Spanish 5.1 Dolby Digital Sound. Bonus features include: a commentary by director Chris Wedge and co-director Carlos Saldanha; deleted scenes with commentary by Wedge and Saldanha; a theatrical teaser and trailer.


“I, Robot,” which will street on March 11, will feature direct access to in-movie features through one of the four colored buttons on the BD remote that allows viewers to quickly access the enormous amount of bonus materials on the disc including commentaries, production diaries, extended and deleted scenes, trivia and more.


“Man On Fire,” which is due Jan. 8, is authored in BD-Java using MPEG2 compression and presented on a 50GB dual layer disc with English 5.1 DTS HD Lossless Master Audio and French and Spanish 5.1 Dolby Digital Sound.


“Wall Street,” will street Feb. 5, authored in MPEG2 compression and presented on a 50GB dual layer disc with English 5.1 DTS HD Lossless Master Audio and English, French and Spanish subtitles. Bonus features include: a commentary and intro by Oliver Stone; a Greed Is Good featurette; deleted scenes with commentary by Stone; and Money Never Sleeps – the making of Wall Street.

“Me, Myself and Irene,” will also street on Feb. 5, authored in MPEG2 compression and presented on a 25GB disc with English 5.1 DTS HD Lossless Master Audio and French 5.1 Dolby Digital Sound. Bonus features include deleted scenes with optional commentary by Bobby Farrelly and Peter Farrelly and theatrical trailers.
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6517200.html

You are reading too many BLOGS and such.

You should really wait for the response from the HD DVD PG before you call the game over.

I'm just able to view this situation objectively and with common sense. I also find it very interesting you're able to blindy accept what the HD DVD PG tells and be so naive about the matter. But, hey, stay delusional. :)

Less than 5 minutes long and "...She looks like she's trying to not break down onstage or something...":eek:

Poor dear. Should have packed a black dress and a nice veil in her suitcase (along with a good pair of sensible running shoes).

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

"Scorched Earth" - ever hear about that?


As graceful in defeat as in victory.

Better look again - at Disney. Sleeping Beauty, Finding Nemo and National Treasure were already announced. So were some of the catalog titles.

Fox - you want to believe them go right ahead - their track record stinks and we both know it. Still using BD25's and MPEG2 I see.

I don't know why you are so concerned over what Disney and Fox are doing with their releases. You've said many times the past day or two that you aren't buying a Blu ray player and are sticking with cable tv and other means to get your high definition. :rolleyes:

Fox - you want to believe them go right ahead - their track record stinks and we both know it. Still using BD25's and MPEG2 I see.

now that's just not true. they were doing that a long time ago, but they've stopped. everything i've bought from them the last few months has been avc/bd50, like the simpsons movie, the die hard collection, from hell, and the fly.

no, i won't argue that their track record is great- those early 25gb/mpeg 2 discs aren't the best. But, they have improved their releases and they are consistently high quality now.

It's understandable that toshiba did not have much to say on this subject today, but if they didn't consider this scenario a long time ago, shame on them and shame on their investors who did not demand a backup plan in this case.

With that said, I believe they had considered this situation in the past and they will at least have an attempted rebuttal. Toshiba and MS have played very conservatively so far and I cannot see them giving up their market share (and future potential share) this easily.

Combo HD DVD, DVD discs would have been a good way to transition to full HD. Without them DVD must hang on to the bitter end. Warner knocks out HD DVD now, but then must keep making both BR and DVD much longer.

Dave

Better look again - at Disney. Sleeping Beauty, Finding Nemo and National Treasure were already announced. So were some of the catalog titles.

Fox - you want to believe them go right ahead - their track record stinks and we both know it. Still using BD25's and MPEG2 I see.

And you keep on living in your fantasy world where you think hd dvd will mount a major counter offensive. At least Fox is honest in their packaging indicating what they're using in terms of disc size and encoding. Kingdom of Heaven is a 50gig disc using MPEG2 and is reference quality material. I could care less if its using MPEG2 as long as it looks great.

It is a good thing for Toshiba shareholders that these decisions will be made be rational executives and not HD-DVD aficionados posting on websites. Virtually without exception, these ideas are a good way to lose many millions more by throwing good money after bad.

It is a good thing for Toshiba shareholders that these decisions will be made be rational executives and not HD-DVD aficionados posting on websites. Virtually without exception, these ideas are a good way to lose many millions more by throwing good money after bad.

I would expect Toshiba bean counters to know the concept of "sunk cost" and plan accordingly with regards to HD-DVD.

I would expect Toshiba bean counters to know the concept of "sunk cost" and plan accordingly with regards to HD-DVD.

Sunk costs, indeed. I'd be pissed as a shareholder if Toshiba chose to lose tens of millions more supporting HD DVD instead of switching to BR and making hundreds of millions.

You really don't understand do you?

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

"Scorched Earth" - ever hear about that?

And PLEASE . . . no diatribes or drivel about what is good for the consumer because the consumer is LAST on the list of what matters to studios and large corporations.

So finally, your true intentions come out ... Is "Scorched Earth" the new talking point for the HD DVD illuminati? for shame!

So finally, your true intentions come out ... Is "Scorched Earth" the new talking point for the HD DVD illuminati? for shame!

And we are going to keep hearing this stuff from him until the mods here finally do something about him and his nonsense.

Warners announcement means that sooner or later unless HD DVD can secure FOX or Disney or both BD will be the HD format. IMO, Toshiba should strike a deal to bow out, release thier studios from exclusivity and strike a deal with the BD now that would require BD to support HD DVD customers. Its a win win, Toshiba saves face with its backers and the BDA welcomes the existing HD DVD only supporters. Maybe like this:

1) Toshiba releases All thier studios from exclusivity immediately and declare BD the victor.
2) The BDA Makes thier players Dual format like the dvd players we have today that play all disc types.(this would be a 2 year agreement after that they could continue DF or drop it altogether, but at that time the cost to not have HD DVD support would be meaningless)


IMO, this would make everyone happy...BD would have an immediate win and only have to make thier hardware for a couple of years Dual Format.
Then the BDA can focus on the next enemy the average consumer and dvd.

What do you guys think?

You really don't understand do you?

HD DVD can't win. But if it stays alive - it ruins the chance for BD to take over and at least have a shot of doing some damage to DVD.

"Scorched Earth" - ever hear about that?

And PLEASE . . . no diatribes or drivel about what is good for the consumer because the consumer is LAST on the list of what matters to studios and large corporations.

That would work well if Toshiba did not have other business interests with BD companies, or movie studios...or if the DVD forum did not consist of other member not wanting to see scorched earth.

Remind me not to hide around your home after WW III... :D

when i see you say the ps3 only 5 million i knew that the topic was a joke. where do these guys come from? you would figure the losers of the format also have a 360. seening that the op doesnt know crap about consoles you do know there is a 33% failure rate with the 360 and less than 1% with the ps3. you do know that every single analyst has the ps3 ahead of the wii by 2010 in sales and the 360 dead in the water. no wonder you picked hddvd

This thread is for serious HD DVD fans to discuss realistic options for the HD DVD format in light of the announcement that Warner/NewLine has gone Blu.

Please do not respond if you are a Blu-ray fanboy. I don't want this to turn into a format war discussion.

So, it's been a few days for the news to sink in. I was curious as to what others think might be the next possible steps for the format, if there are any, that might be positive. Sure we can postulate that Paramount and Universal will go nuetral, or they will both go blu, but that's not what I am getting at. Are there any real options for HD DVD to survive and/or win?

Here are some strategies:

1) Paramount and Universal stay HD DVD With no rumours or rumblings about going nuetral. In other words, they stay committed to the format both in action and publically. This seems very unlikely. They don't want a fractured market any more than any of us do. They know the long term viability is with one format. However, this strategy might be taken if they have done studies that show the HD format will never go beyond niche. For instance, if they believe that in the future both BLu-ray will never take over DVD regardless if every studio converts they may just stay where they are. Remember, neither Paramount nor Universal have been "offered" $500 million like the rumoured WB payout. And, now with WB defecting, it's unlikely that going Blu will net them any good sign on bonuses. In fact, at this point, they probably will not get any favors to turn. Sony doesn't need to since in their eyes it's inevitable that Paramount and Universal will have to turn. If this scenario plays out, then we will live with two formats, and it will stall physical media. This will mean High Def movies will take longer to become mainstream with DVD still winning. HOwever, Paramount is already excited about online movies (Xbox Live for instance) and a number other other avenues for revenue. Perhaps these two studios continue to focus on new ventures and view physical media as only a portion of their strategy, thus content with partial market share. THey could also rationalize their smaller high def market by saying anyone not getting HD DVD can still enjoy their movies on SD DVD.

If this strategy were to be played out it would only be temporary. The goals would be survival and I would envision it lasting only as long as needed to get combo players in an affordable price range. If they held out, CE manufacturers would be forced to evaluated including both standards in their players. At some point, I would say 2 years, combo players would be cheap enough. Remember, this was never possible with the two physically different VHS/Beta standards. But with all discs being the same size, it's quite possible that a combo player would eventually be the norm. For instance there were two completely different standards for CD-R/CD+R and also DVD-R and DVD+R that required different drives when they all of them came out. Over time, manufacturer's said screw it, we will just support all standards. I don't see why that won't happen.

But it would require Paramount and Universal to take the stance that they are not wavering and sticking to their guns.

I believe this as the best possible scenario at this point for HD DVD to survive. IT's not the most likely and not the best for the market, but hey, I am talking as an HD DVD fan that is exploring options that would save the format.

2) Microsoft or CD Partner introduces an XBOX 360 that has a built in HD DVD drive. Ok, this was rumoured and still may be announced this week. I think it's unlikely to be announced though, now that WB has dropped the bomb. But if it does, it could continue to grow the HD DVD player base. Many of the original Xbox 360 early adopters, and those that bought the elite would get this, as well as new customers. Hey, it would piss us off, but we would find a way to "upgrade". Just like every year or other year those that love their iPods find a way to part with another $349 to get the latest version of their MP3 player. In addition to those sales, customers that would be evaluating the more expensive PS3 might now see a similarly featured Xbox with high def movies for the same price and perhaps it would steal market from PS3. Not that the Xbox needs help there, it's got somewhere in the neighboorhood of 12 million boxes sold to Sony's 5 million PS3s. But future buyers looking to the PS3 for both the gaming and movie playing make go the Xbox (and HD DVD) route if given a choice.

This would slow Blu-ray but not stop it. Frankly, nothing will stop Blu-ray now. But again, if it slowed it enough, it might give time for everyone (CE manufactures, retailers, consumers) to just say screw it, to get movies from all studios I need a combo player.

3) Microsoft makes major investment with PC vendors to subsized including HD DVD drives in PCs. Ok, so all this does is ensure the standard stays around. It does nothing to help the format in the CE market. But if they were to do that, it would again slow adoption of Blu in the PC market. This seems highly unlikely since MS has shown little overt or public interest in the format war. Sure they sided with HD DVD but they have no love for either format nor do they care about either format. In many respects, their only reason to get behind HD DVD was to slow the PS3's sales rates. And in that, they have succeeded greatly.

4) Toshiba announces combo players. What does this do? Well, it doesn't give any hope of HD DVD winning. In fact quite the opposite. However, it does do one thing for HD DVD. It gives all of us faith that at least some CE will continue to support HD DVD long enough so taht our library of HD DVD movies won't be obsolete. See, there needs to be some support for HD DVD into the future for us to feel safe. Otherwise, once our current player breaks we are Sh1t out of luck. If Toshibat can make cost effective combo players it might also give some leadership to the other combo player makers too; they may continue to make combo players.


5) HD DVD forum/Toshiba or whoever, lowers licensing and prices drop on HDDVD low enought that all manufactures eventually add it as another supported standard in their players. Sure, Sony will never, but then they will just look like they have one less feature. You see the only hope we have is that HD DVD survives to remain a standard long enough to become another logo on all CE manufacture's devices. Sort of like how DTS was an underdog and costly to support in the beggining but it was a differenciator of those higher DVD players that did support it. Then it eventually just became another feature.

6) HD DVD sales grow slowly in the next 6 months. To that of 50/50. Partially due to many more HD DVD players that were sold over the holidays. This prompts Toshiba to continue support and Microsoft continues to support it as well. I think this is unlikely given trends.

7) Paramount/Universal is given big incentives (that is if Sony has any more cash) to go Blu to end it all. Paramount/Universal/WB offer trade up program for current HD DVD owners to swap discs either for free, or for small fee. Send in your disc get new one, send in your UPC get coupon for store purchase, something. THis might work well for both Paramount and WB who have been making titles on both formats already. THis might get us further good will than continued BOGO free offers and yet be pretty much the same cost to the studios. Universal it will take some time.

So, most of my scenarious involve HD DVD just hanging in there long enough for combo players to become the norm. Sure it seems long shot, but as technology progresses, all competing formats have been incorporated up to now (other than the two high def audio standards).

What are your thoughts? Again, please only post if you take this seriously, if you care about HD DVD, and would like to contribute. I am not trying to make this a new Blu-ray vs HD DVD thread.

HDDVD is dead. Just give it up. The Warner and New Line defection was tantamount to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. War OVER!

That would work well if Toshiba did not have other business interests with BD companies, or movie studios...or if the DVD forum did not consist of other member not wanting to see scorched earth.

Remind me not to hide around your home after WW III... :D


If what you said is true we would never have had the hd wars we are going through.

Sony would never have made bluray and stuck with hd dvd because that is what toshiba wanted and toshiba makes the cell chips in the ps3.

Sunk costs, indeed. I'd be pissed as a shareholder if Toshiba chose to lose tens of millions more supporting HD DVD instead of switching to BR and making hundreds of millions.

Which is exactly why none of this has even a remote chance of happening. It is just a way to blow off steam. And it can be entertaining.

Maybe many people are disappointed that their preferred format, more conducive to low-volume production, has lost and now they are largely shut out of HDM.



Are you saying that HD DVD is only conducive to low volume production?

IMO the only thing left that can save HD-DVD is Microsoft.

First HD-DVD needs a serious boost in stake from Microsoft. They need to announce that the successor to the XBOX360 will run it's software exclusively on HD-DVD media.

Second Microsoft would have to drop a major incentive to studios to keep releasing in HD-DVD format. For example if Paramount continues to produce retail HD-DVD's for consumers, they would receive a DEEP DISCOUNT on the fees associated with having movies available for download on the Xbox Live Marketplace.

My third and most unlikely dream would be Microsoft programming a Vista update that will dis-allow any BLU-RAY drive or media to be used under Vista.

Toshiba should go to Sony and see what kind of deal they could get for throwing in the towel. That would probably get them some type of payoff, they could probably negotiate some sort of a more lenient switchover for those who are currently HD-DVD based, and really the rest of the industry has pretty much decided, so why prolong it? Further $ spent pushing HD-DVD is probably a lost cause. Furthermore, it would (if Warner hasn't done it already) put a formal end to the war so that all of us, consumers and industry alike, can just move in with the next format without extra confusion.

a) Give up
b) Get Paramount and Universal to flood the market with catalog at $15-$20 a movie.. I'm talking 1000-2000 releases in 2008
c) Get Paramount and Universal to go combo only for all day/date

Combine this with:

a) Drop prices of players to $69 and discontinue Toshiba DVD only players
b) HD-DVD-R in every notebook shipped regardless of model
c) Inexpensive HD-DVD-R drives and media to market tomorrow

if they can do it , turn every new release from the companys they have left to combo releases , no regular dvds .

Put on the sd side before the movie a nice little video telling people that with an hd dvd player they can watch the movie in high def.

might change the course of things

Are you saying that HD DVD is only conducive to low volume production?It's conducive to both high- and low-volume production. Meaning that those of us who like esoteric art-house fare and the like wouldn't be left out of the HDM equation as it now appears we will be.

My third and most unlikely dream would be Microsoft programming a Vista update that will dis-allow any BLU-RAY drive or media to be used under Vista.How about bundling a free, high-quality, 64-bit-compatible HD-DVD plug-in for Vista MCE?

a) Give up
b) Get Paramount and Universal to flood the market with catalog at $15-$20 a movie.. I'm talking 1000-2000 releases in 2008
c) Get Paramount and Universal to go combo only for all day/date

Combine this with:

a) Drop prices of players to $69 and discontinue Toshiba DVD only players
b) HD-DVD-R in every notebook shipped regardless of model
c) Inexpensive HD-DVD-R drives and media to market tomorrow

If all these were put into place I'd say we have a chance... I know not everyone likes combos but I think that going combo only for all day/date is the only way to get DVD users into HDM. I haven't had problems with the 15 or so combos that I have... and when I want to watch a movie that I have on non-combo somewhere else I usually can't since not all that many people have players still.

IMO the only thing left that can save HD-DVD is Microsoft.

First HD-DVD needs a serious boost in stake from Microsoft. They need to announce that the successor to the XBOX360 will run it's software exclusively on HD-DVD media.

Second Microsoft would have to drop a major incentive to studios to keep releasing in HD-DVD format. For example if Paramount continues to produce retail HD-DVD's for consumers, they would receive a DEEP DISCOUNT on the fees associated with having movies available for download on the Xbox Live Marketplace.

My third and most unlikely dream would be Microsoft programming a Vista update that will dis-allow any BLU-RAY drive or media to be used under Vista.

How about MS shipping all future OS disks on HD-DVD's?

My third and most unlikely dream would be Microsoft programming a Vista update that will dis-allow any BLU-RAY drive or media to be used under Vista.

Glad I use a Mac and I don't have to deal with Micro$haft. And before they could do that, they might want to concentrate on getting Vista to actually work right.

How about MS shipping all future OS disks on HD-DVD's?

Hahaha owned.

There are over 1 billion computers running Windows in the world. Just goes to show you how powerful Microsoft is and it also goes to show you how little they really did for HD-DVD compared to what they COULD have done.

Makes you wonder if all those "bleed Sony dry" rumors were true.

HDDVD is dead. Just give it up. The Warner and New Line defection was tantamount to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. War OVER!


I'm glad you feel the war is over, whew, now I can get back to buying and watching HD DVD's!

Hahaha owned.

There are over 1 billion computers running Windows in the world. Just goes to show you how powerful Microsoft is and it also goes to show you how little they really did for HD-DVD compared to what they COULD have done.

Makes you wonder if all those "bleed Sony dry" rumors were true.

They incorporated HD DVD support into Vista. That's pretty significant.

Glad I use a Mac and I don't have to deal with Micro$haft. And before they could do that, they might want to concentrate on getting Vista to actually work right.


Wait you mean you support a product that has less than 10% of the market share and it still works and plays software?! Amazing. Next you're going to say that products are still being produced for this market loser as well. It must be a nightmare being a Mac owner, I mean there is so little industry support. Wait, people are saying the same about HD DVD. Even crazier people are saying that HD DVD isn't going anywhere just like the Mac. When will people learn :rolleyes:

People still love their Macs. A million other people will still enjoy their HD DVD's and life still moves forward.

They incorporated HD DVD support into Vista. That's pretty significant.Actually, they didn't.

The overwhelming silence from HD-DVD at CES while Blu-Ray introduced a slew of new players, made some new title announcements, and reaffirmed their commitment to Blu-Ray, speaks volumes about what HD-DVD will do next. There will be no Hail Marys.

It's conducive to both high- and low-volume production. Meaning that those of us who like esoteric art-house fare and the like wouldn't be left out of the HDM equation as it now appears we will be.


Gotcha, thanks for clarifying.

when i see you say the ps3 only 5 million i knew that the topic was a joke. where do these guys come from? you would figure the losers of the format also have a 360. seening that the op doesnt know crap about consoles you do know there is a 33% failure rate with the 360 and less than 1% with the ps3. you do know that every single analyst has the ps3 ahead of the wii by 2010 in sales and the 360 dead in the water. no wonder you picked hddvd


You're just full of useless information aren't you? In 2010, Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony will all have new consoles on the market. So who will really care about the Wii, 360, or PS3 in 2010? Those consoles are only relevent now.

Hahaha owned.

There are over 1 billion computers running Windows in the world. Just goes to show you how powerful Microsoft is and it also goes to show you how little they really did for HD-DVD compared to what they COULD have done.

Makes you wonder if all those "bleed Sony dry" rumors were true.

I missed a key word in my original post:

"How about MS shipping all future OS disks EXCLUSIVELY on HD-DVD's?"

I missed a key word in my original post:

"How about MS shipping all future OS disks EXCLUSIVELY on HD-DVD's?"

They're having a hard enough time selling Vista as it is.

Well there we go.

No Xbox 360 ultimate or anything with HD-DVD support built in at CES.

Or is it that there might be announcements later on during the event?

It was the Japanese:p

And it wasn't over when they dropped THE BOMB on Hiroshima either. It was over when they dropped the second bomb on Nagasaki

was it over when the germans bombed Pearl Harbor - that's a quote from Animal House.

This thread is for serious HD DVD fans to discuss realistic options for the HD DVD format in light of the announcement that Warner/NewLine has gone Blu.

Please do not respond if you are a Blu-ray fanboy. I don't want this to turn into a format war discussion.

Again, please only post if you take this seriously, if you care about HD DVD, and would like to contribute. I am not trying to make this a new Blu-ray vs HD DVD thread.Why can't half the people responding to this thread read?

Please, if you don't want to contribute to the topic at hand, just skip it. There are plenty of other threads for you to add your comments to.

Scott

The only strategy that makes sense is to stop the bleeding and move to Blu-Ray. No need to throw good money after bad. These HD-DVD companies bet on a format that lost (like Sony and Betamax) and the gig is up. Like Sony making VHS post-Betamax, Toshiba will be making Blu-Ray players soon enough. It is the only realistic strategy, and that's why it will happen sooner or later.

Not necessarily. Why would Toshiba et Al concede defeat and just fade away. Here is one possible aggressive scenario:

HD DVD sticks around and becomes a thorn in BD's side. Both formats fail, and BD's failure becomes disastrous for Sony as expected. HD DVD does not have to win but it can inflict serious damage to Sony. The Warner switch made Toshiba lose face and they could go on the war path, costing Sony a lot more.

What's the solution? Sony and the BDA have to negotiate with Toshiba and its partners and possibly provide them with HUGE "incentives" to quit quickly and quietly.

Why should Toshiba just walk away and write off its investments and lost royalties?

I really think that the BDA's biggest fear is what Toshiba could do next. HD DVD does not have to win but they could make BD fail.

By the way, I am format neutral but I put on my MBA hat to look at options that may not be obvious. I think Toshiba could walk away with some nice incentives and concessions...

when i see you say the ps3 only 5 million i knew that the topic was a joke. where do these guys come from? you would figure the losers of the format also have a 360. seening that the op doesnt know crap about consoles you do know there is a 33% failure rate with the 360 and less than 1% with the ps3. you do know that every single analyst has the ps3 ahead of the wii by 2010 in sales and the 360 dead in the water. no wonder you picked hddvd

Well, I realize you are attacking my knowledge of the video game console market, but your argument would probably be stronger with some basic punctuation and grammer skills.

The number I used was the last one I knew. The numbers I used are a little off since the last time I checked. Below are two sites that compare sales, although I will be the first to admit that their sources are suspect and they differ between eachother.

http://www.vgchartz.com/

http://nexgenwars.com/

Still, no matter how you slice it, the PS3 hasn't sold through what it hoped to and the Xbox 360 (and Wii) are way ahead. With the pricing as it is, PS3 will never catch up.

Oh, and those analysts you cite (or actually didn't cite) have been been saying PS3 will come out ahead, you are right. But do you realize they are citing by 2010? That's like 5 years after this current generation started. That's nearing the end of the lifecycle when all the major players will be looking to their next model. So, in essense, the PS3 will be a loser for this entire generation, only gaining momentum enough to edge out a victory in 2010? Hmmmm...

But this is way off topic unless you are comparing an unnannounced potential Xbox 360 with an internal HD DVD drive sometime in the future. That was one of the potential strategies. I think it's unlikely now, though.

fritzilla, try comparing how the PS3 and the 360 are selling when you line up their launches to compare how they are doing at the same point in their lifecycles.

So the strategy would be to spend additonal millions in a quixiotic and futile attempt to be a thorn in Sony's side? Toshiba has smart executives that will not do destructive things to their company (and shareholders) for such silly reasons. The gig is up. Just a few dead enders on AVS don't understand that.

Not necessarily. Why would Toshiba et Al concede defeat and just fade away. Here is one possible aggressive scenario:

HD DVD sticks around and becomes a thorn in BD's side. Both formats fail, and BD's failure becomes disastrous for Sony as expected. HD DVD does not have to win but it can inflict serious damage to Sony. The Warner switch made Toshiba lose face and they could go on the war path, costing Sony a lot more.

What's the solution? Sony and the BDA have to negotiate with Toshiba and its partners and possibly provide them with HUGE "incentives" to quit quickly and quietly.

Why should Toshiba just walk away and write off its investments and lost royalties?

I really think that the BDA's biggest fear is what Toshiba could do next. HD DVD does not have to win but they could make BD fail.

By the way, I am format neutral but I put on my MBA hat to look at options that may not be obvious. I think Toshiba could walk away with some nice incentives and concessions...

fritzilla, try comparing how the PS3 and the 360 are selling when you line up their launches to compare how they are doing at the same point in their lifecycles.

well its a good thing sony launched when ms launched.... oh wait they didn't .

MS launched first and that is why they are selling insane amounts of software and have the user base lead over sony. You do know that the xbox 360 sold more software this holiday than the ps3 and wii combined ?

Sony is in dead last and they need ms to stop selling systems in NA today for them to ever hope to catch up to ms . By 2010 / 2011 the xbox 3 will be out and we will start this all over again , but this time the xbox will have even better brand names to help it. This time instead of it being the halo box , it will be the halo , gears of war , crackdown and other box

So the strategy would be to spend additonal millions in a quixiotic and futile attempt to be a thorn in Sony's side? Toshiba has smart executives that will not do destructive things to their company (and shareholders) for such silly reasons. The gig is up. Just a few dead enders on AVS don't understand that.

JAC6, did you event bother to read my post or did you just post your canned response attacking anyone who suggests that Toshiba and its partners may not just walk away?

It must be a scary thought. HD DVD may have lost the war but they can still extract concessions from Sony, including sharing the royalty pool.

If you think that Sony is not extending an olive branch to Toshiba right now, you have not worked with Japanese companies before. I have.

Plus, the OP asked for opinions on options. While the war analogy is simple, it's not a win-lose proposition alone. It could be lose-lose.

JAC6, did you event bother to read my post or did you just post your canned response attacking anyone who suggests that Toshiba and its partners may not just walk away?

It must be a scary thought. HD DVD may have lost the war but they can still extract concessions from Sony, including sharing the royalty pool.

If you think that Sony is not extending an olive branch to Toshiba right now, you have not worked with Japanese companies before. I have.

Plus, the OP asked for opinions on options. While the war analogy is simple, it's not a win-lose proposition alone. It could be lose-lose.

I read every word of it and it was unpersuasive to me for the reasons stated. Toshiba has zero leverage here and has many collaborations with Sony in other areas. I don't think they will try to extract concessions under such cicumstanaces. I think Sony will play nice with Toshiba, by the way, but don't see what that has to be with the "thorn in the side"/"war path" strategy.

fritzilla, try comparing how the PS3 and the 360 are selling when you line up their launches to compare how they are doing at the same point in their lifecycles.

Doesn't matter. Going first, like the Sega Saturn, or the Sega Dreamcast, can either help or hurt you. In this case, the Xbox 360 did well to come first, and has won this current generation. If only they had a built in HD DVD drive at launch, but then that would have priced them out of mainstream adoption just like the PS3. Hmmmmm....

I read every word of it and it was unpersuasive to me for the reasons stated. Toshiba has zero leverage here and has many collaborations with Sony in other areas. I don't think they will try to extract concessions under such cicumstanaces. I think Sony will play nice with Toshiba, by the way, but don't see what that has to be with the "thorn in the side"/"war path" strategy.

Well, we'll see what happens.

If Toshiba goes away quietly and quickly, a number of key executives will "retire" in the next few weeks and new leadership will come in to fix the damage and shut down the HD DVD business.

If Toshiba and Sony announce an "agreement" in the next few weeks or month(s), then it validates the view that Tohiba and its partners were not out of the game. Reportedly, Toshiba gets $1 billion a year from the DVD patent pool (I read it in this forum). If Blu-Ray becomes the standard, they may get nothing so...

I personally think that Toshiba could easily walk away from HD DVD with a $500+ million "incentive" from Sony. Why just surrender if you can walk away with your chin up and a fat wallet :)

Well, we'll see what happens.

If Toshiba goes away quietly and quickly, a number of key executives will "retire" in the next few weeks and new leadership will come in to fix the damage and shut down the HD DVD business.

If Toshiba and Sony announce an "agreement" in the next few weeks or month(s), then it validates the view that Tohiba and its partners were not out of the game. Reportedly, Toshiba gets $1 billion a year from the DVD patent pool (I read it in this forum). If Blu-Ray becomes the standard, they may get nothing so...

I personally think that Toshiba could easily walk away from HD DVD with a $500+ million "incentive" from Sony. Why just surrender if you can walk away with your chin up and a fat wallet :)

We will see.

BD has won the format war! . . . for the 10th time no less!

If the end is indeed near with the recent events, wouldn't we all have been better off if it had ended the first time the BD group said it did? Just a thought given a lot of people that might have just bought the wrong player for Christmas.

Here is what HD-DVD has to do to survive/thrive.

1. Make sure that Universal and Paramount don't waiver on their support for HD-DVD.

2. Have a $99 player all the time.

3. Get Microsoft to include a HD-DVD player in the xbox.

4. No more Special Edition discs without being a Combo Disc. Market it as the Special Edition with all the extras, with one other extra, an HD-DVD version of the movie is included.

5. Get more studio support, although I think this will be very hard to do.

Numbers 3 and 5 seem to be a poor strategy. As you stated, 5 is going to be hard to do, and if MS includes an HD DVD drive in the XBOX, it would likely be the high end model. Two problems there. One, the XBOX sales numbers are decreasing from their numbers last year. Two, the Elite model is less than 10% of XBOX sales, so a high end one with an HD DVD drive included would not sell enough units to matter. I don't think MS can put an HD DVD drive in every model and still stay below Sony's current prices. Price is still the main reason the XBOX sells better in the US and the PS3.

I fail to see how any of the companies involved are making money.



Sony has an advantage in this area. They have so many parts of the company that can make money to fuel the game division and BD type stuff. Toshiba doesn't have as many resources. In fact, Sony recently reported profits because the TV and camera areas were selling so well, even with the PS3 losses.

Warners announcement means that sooner or later unless HD DVD can secure FOX or Disney or both BD will be the HD format. IMO, Toshiba should strike a deal to bow out, release thier studios from exclusivity and strike a deal with the BD now that would require BD to support HD DVD customers. Its a win win, Toshiba saves face with its backers and the BDA welcomes the existing HD DVD only supporters. Maybe like this:

1) Toshiba releases All thier studios from exclusivity immediately and declare BD the victor.
2) The BDA Makes thier players Dual format like the dvd players we have today that play all disc types.(this would be a 2 year agreement after that they could continue DF or drop it altogether, but at that time the cost to not have HD DVD support would be meaningless)


IMO, this would make everyone happy...BD would have an immediate win and only have to make thier hardware for a couple of years Dual Format.
Then the BDA can focus on the next enemy the average consumer and dvd.

What do you guys think?

What confuses me about your comments is the idea that Toshiba thinks this is about more than money. Several other HD DVD supporters have made similar suggestions, and I just don't see why Toshiba has any reason to save face with its backers or support HD DVD customers?

I missed a key word in my original post:

"How about MS shipping all future OS disks EXCLUSIVELY on HD-DVD's?"

I don't see that making a difference. I haven't had a media disc for an OS since Windows 95. Everything else has been preloaded or downloaded. I suspect many others are the same.

I think the best possible outcome is if Toshiba could make a deal with Sony/BDA to combine HD DVD into Blu-ray. Call it Profile 3.0/HD-Blu.

Profile 3.0 players will have to do everything profile 2.0 players do, plus play HD DVD and also have the ability to play hybrid Blu-ray/HD DVD discs. These hybrid discs are discs that have physical formating of Blu-ray or HD DVD, but authored using either HDi or BD-Java. So you could have best of both worlds. HDi formated Blu-ray discs. 50GB LoTR with full blown HDi IME, anyone?

What confuses me about your comments is the idea that Toshiba thinks this is about more than money. Several other HD DVD supporters have made similar suggestions, and I just don't see why Toshiba has any reason to save face with its backers or support HD DVD customers?

consider this- Sony sold Blu-ray to the studios as a format that would have overwhelming , dominating support immediately due to the PS3.
That NEVER happend. Take out the BOGOs and the differences between the formats came down to little more than 1.5:1.
That wasn't the kind of figure that earned Sony the support of Warner, They bought that support. This isn't an expression of sour grapes, this is just the reality of the situation. What does this have to do with the future viability of HD DVD? Everything.
look at that ratio again. For much of that time, Bd also enjoyed the impression that it had superior support (until the Paramount payoff). If I were Tosh and HD DVD exclusive studios I would take all this data and conclude that support for HDMs in the marketplace is soft now, will be soft in the near future, and may remain soft for years. In that climate- what is the incentive to go Bd and put out discs that cost more to produce?
If Bd is so hot now, why does Fox still cancel half their announced titles?
If someone claims to be an HD enthusiast, but so far hasn't been motivated enough to pick up a $200 HD DVD player in addition to their Bd player to have access to everything- is it really worth courting their support? Or is that person goig to be just as tight when you start putting out Bds...and only buying the occasional blockbuster?

Now is not the time for HD DVD to go spineless and give up. They have several hundred thousand users who will continue to buy exclusive content they want- if it remains exclusive and priced right. and there are tens of thousands of dual format users who will do the same if it is made clear that UNi and Paramount are not bolting anytime soon.
In the meantime, get to work on those dual format players. That way you can keep your current base, and feed off a new larger, bd one.

The only strategy for toshiba is a graceful exit strategy, so they don't look like fools prolonging a pointless battle.

I agree. Toshiba should concede and get on the Blu side and start making BD players and get some of the revenue from hardware sales.

Depends on the goal Toshiba has, if we assume they want to stay in the game they have a few options.

1. Get Paramount and Uni to drop their HD media prices, instead of asking for a premium for the HD content, price it the same way as DVD, make it a flipper.

2. Completely get rid of the DVD SKU(s) and replace it with ONE SKU for HD DVD & DVD (Flipper or two discs).

3. Get in touch with the Chinese DVD manufacturer and CHD DVD licensors, offer them a great deal on the licensing costs / diods in exchange for churning out HD DVD players "only", at the same price point as their current DVD player offerings.

I still think that WB has kept themselves a backdoor open to sell to both formats if BD doesn't take off, the only way for Toshiba to ensure this would be to take a bite out of the market. At this point it is in the best interest of Toshiba to keep the war going and have both formats survive.

Blu-Ray still hasn't won anything really, until J6P is willing to chose a BD disc every time over a DVD (or at least gives indication that they are willing to do so) BD is as much on the bubble as HD DVD, fanbois (on both sides) not withstanding.

By having the existing studios pick up the slack and release more titles than they did in 2007.

And sell them to who? The 10 people that will be buying hd dvd because they haven't heard the news yet?

Blu has out sold hd dvd before the Warner anouncement now with the majority of the studios on they're side the mass will flock to the one true format!

What confuses me about your comments is the idea that Toshiba thinks this is about more than money. Several other HD DVD supporters have made similar suggestions, and I just don't see why Toshiba has any reason to save face with its backers or support HD DVD customers?

Actually this was a thread I started that was moved here. Read my whole post it is about an exit strategy for Toshiba and it is good for both companies and the customers. BDA gets what they want, Toshiba releases the studios they have and HD DVD loyalists, even the most rigid, Will be glad that thier software is still supported. If you dont understand I dont know what to say its pretty black and white.:)

...In this case, the Xbox 360 did well to come first, and has won this current generation...

Actually, it looks like the Wii is going to win this generation in America if projections are accurate. Worldwide both the Wii and PS3 are expected to outsell the 360... only in NA does the 360 enjoy such a comfy position (much like HD DVD is in an even worse spot when Worldwide sales are looked at). Also, this generation has *just begun*: the Wii and PS3 have barely been out for more than a year. No winner can be declared yet.

Get Paramount and Universal to release some bigger titles and cut prices to $19.99 for movies standard.

However ... Paramount and Universal may not go along with that.

The best bet I think was trying to bribe New Line and getting LOTR HD-DVD along with it ASAP, but when they went Blu along with the rest of Warner .... there went that.

The other problem Toshiba has is the Playstation 3. Even though it's not a runaway success, it still sells more than enough systems and consequently more than a few Blu-Ray discs with it that Toshiba is getting attacked on two fronts at all times.

Without the PS3, HD-DVD software sales probably would've been higher than Blu-Ray for 2007 and Warner Bros. would've jumped on their bandwagon.

If HD-DVD is to fail as some of you are claiming (and that is a big IF), then all of Toshiba's HD-DVD patents essentially have no value. In that case, why not just give it away to the Chinese manufacturers. They in-turn will flood the market with $39 players. Why buy a DVD player when you can get an HD-DVD player and an upconverting player for close to the same price. It would be a copy of Microsoft's vision: a HD-DVD player in every home.

In other words, if Toshiba has nothing to lose anyways, why not completely abandon the hardware side, and rely on licensing fees from the software side. That would be preferable to getting nothing.

An animal is most dangerous when it is wounded and has nothing to lose.

If HD-DVD is to fail as some of you are claiming (and that is a big IF), then all of Toshiba's HD-DVD patents essentially have no value. In that case, why not just give it away to the Chinese manufacturers. They in-turn will flood the market with $39 players. Why buy a DVD player when you can get an HD-DVD player and an upconverting player for close to the same price. It would be a copy of Microsoft's vision: a HD-DVD player in every home.

In other words, if Toshiba has nothing to lose anyways, why not completely abandon the hardware side, and rely on licensing fees from the software side. That would be preferable to getting nothing.

An animal is most dangerous when it is wounded and has nothing to lose.
Because Chinese manufacturers don't want to invest in a format without a future?

Why do you automatically assume the Chinese want invest countless millions to develop, manufacture, and market HD-DVD players just because Toshiba wants them to?

All that would accomplish is flooding warehouses full of cheap Chinese HD-DVD players that nobody will buy.

I think it is a mistake to think that Toshiba and the HD DVD camp are just going to go away.

Remember Toshiba and HD DVD still look at HD DVD as a FEATURE on DVD. Sure looking Warner is a blow, but, look at the cost to the BD group. If all the HD formats still languish in the low percentages as opposed to DVD, the massive amount in incentives may not look like a good investment UNLESS the HD DVD camp simply folded its tent and went away, and I believe this is unlikely.

Warner made a business decision, and it is pretty clear that it was the incentives that caused the switch, and with 500mil on the table why not change. If you look at the massive losses on the Sony PS3 side, this Massive incentive on the Warner side, the BD camp is attempting to buy market share and end the war and willing to pay handsomely for it. IF the war does not end, and more importantly IF the volumes of BD Titles does not start to show significant increases, the Warners and the rest of the world is going to keep coming back for more and more incentives. While we don't have visibility to the deal, if you looked at a cost of a BD completely packaged produced end user product cost of 25 dollars, 500 million would pay for 20 MILLION copies. All speculation of course, but still a massive incentive in any terms.

Its a great game of chicken, but until Toshiba/Microsoft change direction the outcome still is not guaranteed. There is still the scenario where HD DVD players drop to under 100 dollars and keep falling, HD DVD titles become more agressively priced, and Consumers don't buy EITHER format is massive numbers.

Lots of WWII era french ppl here. Never knew that...
The blues spoke french so fluently.

Because Chinese manufacturers don't want to invest in a format without a future?

Why do you automatically assume the Chinese want invest countless millions to develop, manufacture, and market HD-DVD players just because Toshiba wants them to?

All that would accomplish is flooding warehouses full of cheap Chinese HD-DVD players that nobody will buy.

Because as we have seen, esp. @ Walmart, Chinese stuff sells easily.

And Just don't think that 1.5B potential Chinese consumers is something that the studios can ignore. If they want to use HD, I am sure they will get it.
Heck they are the one's causing oil to rise.

We can't just be US centric in this debate.

Well said. It seems to me that a lot of these "strategies" ignore the central tenet of a business, which is to return value to shareholders. This means make money.

Spending lots of millions to spite Sony so a few people don't have to buy a few hundred dollars of hardware and software is not going to happen.

The sooner people cut their losses the better business decision they make for themselves.


So the strategy would be to spend additonal millions in a quixiotic and futile attempt to be a thorn in Sony's side? Toshiba has smart executives that will not do destructive things to their company (and shareholders) for such silly reasons. The gig is up. Just a few dead enders on AVS don't understand that.

Let me narrow it down for you....Toshiba didn't fail HD-DVD...The so called "supporters" failed Toshiba and the format...money talks...you know the rest.

Well said. It seems to me that a lot of these "strategies" ignore the central tenet of a business, which is to return value to shareholders. This means make money.

Spending lots of millions to spite Sony so a few people don't have to buy a few hundred dollars of hardware and software is not going to happen.

The sooner people cut their losses the better business decision they make for themselves.

Yeah tell Sony that. They were losing on avg. $250/unit on the PS3.
This battle is truly for their survival & has nothing to do with the good of consumer.

Well said. It seems to me that a lot of these "strategies" ignore the central tenet of a business, which is to return value to shareholders. This means make money.

Spending lots of millions to spite Sony so a few people don't have to buy a few hundred dollars of hardware and software is not going to happen.

The sooner people cut their losses the better business decision they make for themselves.

I wonder how Sony kept and keeps explaining loss of BILLIONS of dollars to it's shareholders?

Are you aware that Toshiba didn't even spend a fraction of that...

If they spent a billion since HD DVD inception I'd be very surprised. They were losing $200 per HD DVD player in the very beginning.. I don't think they were losing money now even with $99 players. They were probably even with some loss on marketing and distribution. That's still nowhere near Sony's amount.

Here.. let's say that there's 1 million HD DVD players SAs, even if they lost $200 per one unit (absolutely ridiculous to even think they lose that much today) they lost $200 million. Sony has spent $7 BILLION. What are we talking about here?!

Come on.. engage some logic please. It's not ok for Toshiba to continue to push to get BILLIONS in royalties but it's ok for Sony to spend $1-2 BILLION dollars in payoffs and still have only 60% of movie catalog market share even with Warner while trying to break even at the moment so they can start getting some money back over the next decade. Give me a break please.


No I'm feeling that a lot of Blu-Ray supporters are HOPING that HD DVD Group concedes because they know, if HD DVD Group continues to fight, it's FAR from over, they can still make DRASTIC changes and give hell to Blu-Ray getting Sony and others completely into red where they would have to pull the plug.

I say fight all the way.


- $99 players everywhere
- Getting Fox or Disney to go neutral
- $19.99 HD DVD discs with the new releases + to be on twin discs

Will boost the HD DVD back into the game. The catalog would be at around 50:50 (it would be no different then with Warner) and we would see a SEA of people buying players.

Friends, $99 players sold $100k units in 3 days, what the hell are we talking about here? They can pump out 1 million additional players in a month swarming the marketing with HD DVD and completely screwing Warner over. I'm telling you, they would be hard pressed not to re-think Blu alliance.

That's just me though, I think they can swing back pretty quick from this is they apply a more unified strategy now, but I'm fine either way even if they conceed, I am just sad that again smaller percent of people will be able to afford Blu-Ray, HD DVD was truly mainstream, Blu-Ray is niche. And I hate the name :)

OK, since i can't sleep (brain won't shut down). First i am totally disgusted by WB the lack of ethics behind the announcement really got to me (three days and i am still mad at that). i can respect their right to make a decision, but what they did is inexcusable. i mean nothing really happening for 4-5 months yet they announce it now just to harm HD DVD (willful financial harm) right after the Holiday season when they were BSing the consumer. i have two words for WB and the first word is not thank (that is probably why they won't see any of my business for years).

OK, the ideas i have kicking around in my mind (or what i would do)
1) If i were Universal, i would gladly sign a three year extention for HD DVD exclusivity (the install base would be so much better on BR in three years and you can double sell to some people). Universal really would not benefit immediately from changing or neutrality (probably not substantially for 1-2 years). i would set the MSRP for HD DVDs at $19.99 (single movie, $39.99 TV box set) and ask Toshiba for a MSRP on an entry level model at $149.99 (partially to avoid the stores selling at current max MSRP just so they wouldn't sell as many units. Let's face it, retail support for HD DVD has been beyond a joke. Next, i would greenlight everything but the kitchen sink and find a way to release some of the Spielberg stuff (Back to the Future, Jaws, etc). If they are going to archive films digitally (HD) then the might as well offset some of the cost. Universal's market on HD DVD has not shrunk. Ask Toshiba if it would be willing to buy into studio.
2) Offer every major studio (publically, to make the stockholders question management) $1 billion for exclusivity for 5 years (200 million a year provided 50+ releases a year, or something like that)
3) Toshiba - $149.99 MSRP on entry-level and talk studios into reducing prices (maybe subsidies). In other words entry level only release of the generation 4s (cheap and plentiful). Try to work volume deals with Walmart, Amazon and Circuit City. Spend some money in foreign markets (and advertise BR as anti-consumer - region coding, etc).
4) At least token threat of lawsuit against WB for financial damages incurred by their early malicious (designed to harm) announcement. Enough with being nice to WB, time to play rough (at least some negative comment against them). Explore all legal options.
5) if i were a trillionaire, buy sufficient stock in BR studios to have sway.

if you want this thread to just be the few remaining hd-dvd die hards / paid off members.

ask the mods to move it to the hd-dvd section and then kick out everyone that doesnt tow your company line of hddvd4life.

as for what toshiba should do (since basically hd-dvd= toshiba). is to start building blu-ray players, and tell everyone to stop buying their dieing format.

The key thing that comes to mind is that Toshiba, Universal and Paramount need to remain united as ONE IF HD-DVD is to survive.

There is no other way now. If they firmly believe that HD-DVD is the better format then they have to stick together and keep releasing titles while Toshiba, Onkyo, Venturer and whoever needs to produce the hardware which is in all price brackets.

The way I see it, there is no "rush" on either side now. Blu-Ray firmly belives it has won so no price wars and rush to market etc. They will stroll and follow their schedule.

I really do believe that if a year from now we are still in this situation where the Blu-Ray camp has what it has now exclusively and the HD-DVD camp has what it has exclusively, it will hurt Blu-Ray more than it will hurt HD-DVD.


There's no balanced competition now as such so Nielsen or any other numbers are invalid as it is a lop-sided battle. It's not even a battle. There is a majority on one side and a niche on the other.

So status-quo a year from now will hurt Blu-Ray a whole lot more than it will hurt HD-DVD as they were unable to close-out the game in other words.


All the above is only valid if Toshiba, Universal and Paramount along with other exclusives mutually decide that this is worth fighting for because those who stand for nothing, fall for anything.


This format war has had its fair share of surprises. Paramount turned when nobody expected it and Warner did the same when unexpected. This war is Blu-Ray's to lose now. If they can't wrap up the game soon, then doubts will start creeping in.

Toshiba needs to join the BDA and start making Blu-ray players.

There is only one last card for the HD DVD Promotional Group to play and that's it's WMD! Its been discussed on this thread and on other threads many times in the past. HD DVD, for whatever reason, hasn't used it in the past so I see no reason for it to use it now. The BDA just ran a "train" on Toshiba et al., so I can understand it not having anything to say for a day or two. But, really? If Toshiba didn't have a worst case scenario plan in place then those responsible should be soon looking for new jobs! This is how they run their company - if so, why would anyone even buy a T.V. from them? The "game plan" used by both formats has been abysmal. Sony has now done what it needed to do. Toshiba has so far refused to.

Cheers,

Grant

Why would I pay more for an upscaling player that supports a dead format? The only strategy that makes sense is supporting Blu-Ray. And that's even more true for Paramount and Universal.

The best stategy right now is to market HD DVD as the best upscaling player that also plays HD movies. Then release the TL twin discs that play SD and HD on the same side. Drop the player prices to below $99 and crank out as many as they can. Blu will continue to stay above $250 so it will be along time before mass adoption (they need to be below $150).

Upscalers are killing blu-ray right now. Just take over that market and push the combos and the TL-twin.

If HD DVD can keep Paramount and Universal locked in, then the format is not dead. Studios can make more from these pay-offs than they can from selling discs, so it is possible.

As I mentioned, go after the Upscaling market. It is 10x bigger than HDM. Change the motto from "plays HD movies and makes SD look better too" to "Makes your SD movies look better and plays HD too". Many of those 1080i upscalers are priced at $100 and above. If HD DVD can sell players at $99 or less, they will sell like hotcakes.

I think if Toshiba does that, they would have a chance against Blu-ray which will offer $250+ players for the next year and has to re-coup that $500 million.

Oh, and the nuclear option might work too. Pay Universal and Paramount to release TL-twins and combos only. Drop SD for any action/cgi titles. That would cost a bundle though.

Sony has now done what it needed to do. Toshiba has so far refused to.


Actually it was Toshiba that was to pay-off Warner to go HD DVD exclusive last week. At the last minute Fox, who was also part of the deal, dropped out. Sony must have done something right. But to say Toshiba refused, is flat out wrong.

Actually it was Toshiba that was to pay-off Warner to go HD DVD exclusive last week. At the last minute Fox, who was also part of the deal, dropped out. Sony must have done something right. But to say Toshiba refused, is flat out wrong.

Until you have a video of the meeting, a press release with proof of the payoff, a transcript of the meeting where fox was within 5 miles of the meeting, then you are just repeating non-sense posted to make hd dvd owners feel like they didnt get creamed and had a chance. Also, what changes if all of the fox/warner stuff was true? Nothing. Buck up. Stop repeating crap all the time please. We need to move on.

Until you have a video of the meeting, a press release with proof of the payoff, a transcript of the meeting where fox was within 5 miles of the meeting, then you are just repeating non-sense posted to make hd dvd owners feel like they didnt get creamed and had a chance. Also, what changes if all of the fox/warner stuff was true? Nothing. Buck up. Stop repeating crap all the time please. We need to move on.

God you are so immature.

Please provide proof that $500 million dollar in money or incentives and subsidization costs didn't happen.

To person with any common sense, it is absolutely ridiculous to think that Warner Brothers did things because they love Blu-ray. Wake up for Christ sake. It's very clear what happened. They took incentives they couldn't pass on and it coincided with their approach that it would end the war.

Take off your blu-glasses and think with your head.

Until you have a video of the meeting, a press release with proof of the payoff, a transcript of the meeting where fox was within 5 miles of the meeting, then you are just repeating non-sense posted to make hd dvd owners feel like they didnt get creamed and had a chance. Also, what changes if all of the fox/warner stuff was true? Nothing. Buck up. Stop repeating crap all the time please. We need to move on.

WTF, we have several insiders who have stated this. Now you want video? I believe ALL of them before I believe you.
How quick were you to jump on the Paramount/MD pay-off bandwagon?


According to a trusted source that was close to the negotiations, Warner and FOX were working on a deal to go Exclusive to HD DVD as recent as last week. Our source tells us that Warner was only willing to go to HD DVD if FOX would go with them. Their thinking was if they just went to HD DVD by themselves, it would not end the format war. Early this week FOX was paid an undisclosed amount to remain exclusive to Blu-ray. With the FOX deal falling through, Warner had no choice but to accept the BDA’s $500 Million offer to go Blu-ray exclusive. We do wonder if FOX was just playing the HD DVD side, while having no intentions of ever switching.


Originally Posted by Dave Vaugh
But, even so, Warner is looking at the long term and long term, they aren't concerned. They weren't going to "jump ship" to HD DVD unless another studio went with them, and when the other studio (which I can't name as of yet) decided not to jump, then Warner chose the swiftest way to end the format war and made a decision that was best for their business.
(Question from D-X: How about someone under the Newscorp umbrella Dave?)
Bingo!

Anyone who thinks Fox was seriously considering switching to HDDVD is delusional. This is the studio that *specifically* asked for the creation of BD+. This is the studio that uses Region Code and BD+ With a Vengeance. What makes you think they would switch to a format that supports neither?