Well, I can't say I'm liking some of the new hardware pricing were hearing of. Sharp 1.1 - $669, Pioneer 1.1 - $900, Panasonic 1.1 $500, Marantz - $2000 (:eek:). So far the cheapest I'm hearing is a $339.00 Phillips (and who buys Phillips?). SONY better cook up a $300 (list) machine, or people will give BD a pass.

Without players that can be bought for $200-$300, this just ain't gonna happen, I don't care what anyone says. Maybe Toshiba will make an affordable DF and surprise us all? :D

After the word got out that the war was over in one of my movie-forums, literally all the fence-sitters and A2, A3 owners said that until 1.1 for -$300, BD can go screw.

I have now have both formats, but I toss money at this stuff with both hands, and in no way reflect the masses or even the average movie-buff.

Discussed at length here: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=969708

Everyone keeps saying the BD better have a cheap player. What next, HD TVs need to be given away as well? The truth is HDM is a privilege and not a right. It is expensive to get a HD TV and a player. :)

You're pretty alone. BD players sold for twice as much, yet still managed to outsell HD DVD players. The prices are falling, and considering that many of these will be available below MSRP (many players go for $100+ off MSRP at Amazon and elsewhere), there's just no more argument here. Unless, of course, you want to admit HD DVD wasn't firing up the masses either.

BD 1.1 is being marketed as a feature as much as DTS support was marketed as a feature for early DVD players and receivers.

It's no surprise that the players that support it are being marked up. If you want a reasonably priced BD 1.1 player, get a PS3 game console and get the BD player for free. ;)

yeah..it seems like people expect high definition to be $50 player like DVD LOL. Sooner or later, prices will decrease in time. A nice Sharp LCD is about $3,000 when they first release it? After 6 months or less, we see it for $2,000?

Well, I can't say I'm liking some of the new hardware pricing were hearing of. Sharp 1.1 - $669, Pioneer 1.1 - $900, Panasonic 1.1 $500, Marantz - $2000 (:eek:). So far the cheapest I'm hearing is a $339.00 Phillips (and who buys Phillips?). SONY better cook up a $300 (list) machine, or people will give BD a pass.


No they won't.

Blu-ray is designed to be -the- format for 10-15 years, and probably beyond given in the 50+ year history of TV we've only JUST replaced NTSC.

I paid $500 for my first DVD player and that was at least 2 years into the product life time.

Prices are coming down. People see Blu-ray (or HD-DVD) and they are all impressed - at least everyone I know. Some of them can't afford players but they all say about the same thing...

It's either:

a) "$500 is in my price range... what's the best player?"

-or-

b) "Next year when it's a little cheaper I'll probably get one".

I've never heard anyone ever say:

"$500? That's way too much and I'll never buy a Blu-ray player now."

If people understand 1 thing about technology, they understand that things always get cheaper. If people want the product, they'll just wait.

Everyone keeps saying the BD better have a cheap player. What next, HD TVs need to be given away as well? The truth is HDM is a privilege and not a right. It is expensive to get a HD TV and a player. :)

HD TVs are comparably cheap now. You can reasonable 32-inch set for $500.

Keeping BD players in the $400 to >$1000 range keeps the general consumer away... and the entire point of trying to end the format war (and Warner's move to BD exclusivity) was to try to bring the general consumer in.

You're pretty alone. BD players sold for twice as much, yet still managed to outsell HD DVD players. The prices are falling, and considering that many of these will be available below MSRP (many players go for $100+ off MSRP at Amazon and elsewhere), there's just no more argument here. Unless, of course, you want to admit HD DVD wasn't firing up the masses either.

???? - When did BD players outsell HD DVD players? I didn't think that ever happened. (Unless you count the PS3 of course.)

From the original thread about this topic:

This is now a war of attrition and Blu-Ray will add buyers slowly and more quickly at the Holidays. There's no format war once HD-DVD capitulates, and no need to race to the lowest possible price point. This will follow DVD and every other CE product, more expensive at first and cheaper later. There is now no great hurry -- people will buy Blu-Ray as HDTV adoption picks up and DVD players die. And they will buy now that there is (probably) a single format. We're still at the relatively early adopter phase and there's no need for $99 players at Wal-Mart.

Everyone keeps saying the BD better have a cheap player. What next, HD TVs need to be given away as well? The truth is HDM is a privilege and not a right. It is expensive to get a HD TV and a player. :)

That mentality will ensure you only enjoy about 200 titles a year.

There are only so many 'privileged' people in this world. Unfortunately, for something to become profitable, it either has to be very expensive, or sell tens of millions.

Unless you are content buying from a limited selection at $30 a disc.

Oh.. you didn't think BOGO's would continue now did you?

In six months, there will be more players at more price points. They will not be $99, but they will likely be within reach for people who have HDTVs and/or spend $100/mo. on HD cable/satellite television. And by Christmas, Blu-Ray will be the must-have gift of 2008.

This notion that HDM tanks if there are not full-featured Blu-Ray players for $99 (or $149 or $199) by next week (or next month etc.) is silly.

???? - When did BD players outsell HD DVD players? I didn't think that ever happened. (Unless you count the PS3 of course.)


According to Warner in December BD stand alones outsold HD DVD in December and according to Toshiba it was a virtual tie year to date (as of 12/22/07)...Somewhat surprising considering the price differences.

According to Warner in December BD stand alones outsold HD DVD and according to Toshiba it was a virtual tie year to date (as of 12/22/07)...Somewhat surprising considering the price differences.

Tie including dual format players counted on the other side if I remember correctly.. which technically.. if you take them out of the mix... equal a win.

You're pretty alone. BD players sold for twice as much, yet still managed to outsell HD DVD players.

That is because Sony is including the PS3 as a Blu Ray player. So every time a pimple faced kid takes his hard earned allowance into Best Buy and purchases a PS3 witout the slightest intension of playing HD movies... cha ching!!! Chalk up another Blu Ray player sale!!! My these things are selling like hot cakes!! :rolleyes:

Tie including dual format players counted on the other side if I remember correctly.. which technically.. if you take them out of the mix... equal a win.

That's year to date stat. If you consider that Toshiba was a 60% just a few months back, then what does it mean for the month of December - BD standalones outselling HD-DVD standalonesk, even with $100 price premium.

That is because Sony is including the PS3 as a Blu Ray player. So every time a pimple faced kid takes his hard earned allowance into Best Buy and purchases a PS3 witout the slightest intension of playing HD movies... cha ching!!! Chalk up another Blu Ray player sale!!! My these things are selling like hot cakes!! :rolleyes:

Toshiba presented the graph showing YTD percentages, not Sony. Toshiba never includes the PS3 in any of their stats, unless they want to bring up attach rates.

That is because Sony is including the PS3 as a Blu Ray player. So every time a pimple faced kid takes his hard earned allowance into Best Buy and purchases a PS3 witout the slightest intension of playing HD movies... cha ching!!! Chalk up another Blu Ray player sale!!! My these things are selling like hot cakes!! :rolleyes:

That's not including PS3's, only standalones. Go look at the slide. It was 50/50. If you want to include PS3's then it was an as* raping.

That is because Sony is including the PS3 as a Blu Ray player. So every time a pimple faced kid takes his hard earned allowance into Best Buy and purchases a PS3... cha ching!!! Chalk up another Blu Ray player sale!!! My these things are selling like hot cakes!! :rolleyes:

Not true.

Blu-ray standalones outsold HD DVD standalones over the course of the year, largely based on a strong holiday season. Warner used that as part of their rationale for their exclusivity.

Adding the PS3, it was an utter trouncing, of course.

That said, I'm not a kid nor do I have pimples, and I bought a PS3 primarily as a Blu-ray player. I did use my pay cheque rather than my allowance, I should add.

You're entitled to your opinions, but unfortunately, your opinions and reality are a little out of tune.

That's year to date stat. If you consider that Toshiba was a 60% just a few months back, then what does it mean for the month of December - BD standalones outselling HD-DVD standalonesk, even with $100 price premium.

It means that pretty much half of all HDM player owners just got shafted by Warner. Wouldn't want to be in Warners shoes right now.

They may lose a bit of business from this snaffu.

$300 is too much for a player?

That's year to date stat. If you consider that Toshiba was a 60% just a few months back, then what does it mean for the month of December - BD standalones outselling HD-DVD standalonesk, even with $100 price premium.

Take into consideration all the parents that bought their brats George Foreman grills, I mean PS3s for Christmas gifts. Were these purchased with true intention of HDM? Hell no.

The war is over, and it's time for you BD guys (of which I'm now one), to get wise to what the market will bare. Both formats combined in software and hardware sales are not pulling this off yet, and were not even close. I want HDM to survive, and now that HDM=BD, the time has come to stop defending price-points that will keep HD a blip that falls under it's own self-importance.

Your not going to hurt your Blu-rays feelings by accepting that it needs to sell X10 in dedicated hardware to hang in there, and the PS3 is not the answer to mass adoption.

It means that pretty much half of all HDM player owners just got shafted by Warner. Wouldn't want to be in Warners shoes right now.

They may lose a bit of business from this snaffu.

As did Paramount? Warner will be fine. Besides, the stat is for standalone owners. Plenty of PS3 owners out there not counted. Warner just made it easier for the fence sitters to buy in to HDM, which is what we need.

Take into consideration all the parents that bought their brats George Foreman grills, I mean PS3s for Christmas gifts. Were these purchased with true intention of HDM? Hell no.Many were. Not that it matters, because even BD standalone sales beat out HD DVD standalones during the holidays.

$300 is too much for a player?

Hope you don't mean a 1.0 ?

The war is over, and it's time for you BD guys (of which I'm now one), to get wise to what the market will bare. Both formats combined in software and hardware sales are not pulling this off yet, and were not even close. I want HDM to survive, and now that HDM=BD, the time has come to stop defending price-points that will keep HD a blip that falls under it's own self-importance.

Your not going to hurt your Blu-rays feelings by accepting that it needs to sell X10 in dedicated hardware to hang in there, and the PS3 is not the answer to mass adoption.Perhaps we would take your comments more seriously if you had been advocating this with HD DVD.

Hope you don't mean a 1.0 ?

Funai announced a $299 MSRP 1.1 player.

The war is over, and it's time for you BD guys (of which I'm now one), to get wise to what the market will bare. Both formats combined in software and hardware sales are not pulling this off yet, and were not even close. I want HDM to survive, and now that HDM=BD, the time has come to stop defending price-points that will keep HD a blip that falls under it's own self-importance.

Your not going to hurt your Blu-rays feelings by accepting that it needs to sell X10 in dedicated hardware to hang in there, and the PS3 is not the answer to mass adoption.

Now that there's a single format, there's no rush at all. Downloads are years away even for people on AVS, let alone normal people. People will buy HDM with HDTVs, replace DVD players with Blu-Ray players over time. Fence sitters will buy now. And the holidays will be very good. This doesn't have to happen overnight. I'm perplexed that people think this has to happen immediately.

Many were. Not that it matters, because even BD standalone sales beat out HD DVD standalones during the holidays.

You can beat that drum all you like, but it in no way means BD is poised to win the peace. When there is no HD DVD to blame anymore you gotta realize that the the best elements of both formats (price, selection, quality) has to converge for a true win.

Put on your economist hat, take and off the helmet.

Hope you don't mean a 1.0 ?

No, the 1.1 player just announced.

Funai announced a $299 MSRP 1.1 player.

Will you buy Funai for $299?

You can beat that drum all you like, but it in no way means BD is poised to win the peace. When there is no HD DVD to blame anymore you gotta realize that the the best elements of both formats (price, selection, quality) has to converge for a true win.

Put on your economist hat, take and off the helmet.

Mass adoption of Blu ray will converge with mass adoption of HDTV in about a year or so. Then there will be explosive growth.

You can beat that drum all you like, but it in no way means BD is poised to win the peace. When there is no HD DVD to blame anymore you gotta realize that the the best elements of both formats (price, selection, quality) has to converge for a true win.

Put on your economist hat, take and off the helmet.

Wtf do you want then? $25 players? Free ones? Isn't going from $1000 to $299 list in under 2 years good enough for you?

Will you buy Funai for $299?

Not really, but the option is there. Who knows, if it streets around $200 I might pick one up for the bedroom. Prices will come down in time.

I don't really think you need a "brand" name player for mass adoption. Remember Apex? I like that we have a nice range of players from many different CEs to choose from.

You can beat that drum all you like, but it in no way means BD is poised to win the peace. When there is no HD DVD to blame anymore you gotta realize that the the best elements of both formats (price, selection, quality) has to converge for a true win.

Put on your economist hat, take and off the helmet.

Agreed that Blu-Ray will not "win the peace" (whatever that might mean) in the week you seem to be allowing for that to happen. But let's check back in 6 months and see where we stand. There is no need for eveything to happen immediately.

Tim,

I know you don't care about the PS3, but it will probably street for $299 in March and by summer could be mid 200's.

Sony announced at CES today (according to sources at BluRay.com) that the PS3 will get 2.0 in March.

Wtf do you want then? $25 players? Free ones? Isn't going from $1000 to $299 list in under 2 years good enough for you?

I'm set for awhile, what I think their should be is a Sony, Toshiba or Panisonic 2.0 for $199-$299 actual cost. Stop acting like I want the absurd when I'm asking for the reasonable.

I'm set for awhile, what I think their should be is a Sony, Toshiba or Panisonic 2.0 for $199-$299 actual cost. Stop acting like I want the absurd when I'm asking for the reasonable.

It's not reasonble yet. It should be before the next xmas season though.

Unless, of course, you want to admit HD DVD wasn't firing up the masses either.

Yep - I admit it - the only thing firing up the masses in the dvd optical media world is standard definition upconverting dvd players playing rented dvd titles. And that's just fine by me (and 98% of the rest of the viewing world apparently).I made the leap to HD-DVD, but will probably be forced to return to those standard definition dvd's from Hollywood Video - thanks to Warner. Keep the HD-A30 and bag of movies - or send it back to Amazon? Decisions Decisions.

Before someone suggests it - no thanks to BlueRay for the foreseeable future.

Good news for the 1.1 profile PS3.

MSRP is always higher than street prices. WHat was sharps MSRP price on their current gen player? And what do you think happens to prices on the old model... when new models are release? They come down in price.

Do people really care about 1.1? If they do.. then they can buy the newest players or a PS3. Otherwise, they can pick up a last gen player.

Also, its silly that you would list Marantz price to add some shock value.... THats what high end brands do. Did you know they sell Receivers for $2K, when I can buy a complete RCA Home Theater in a box for $100. Wasnt onkyo planning on a 1200 HD-DVD player, when I could buy an HD-A2 for $100-$200?

I'm set for awhile, what I think their should be is a Sony, Toshiba or Panisonic 2.0 for $199-$299 actual cost. Stop acting like I want the absurd when I'm asking for the reasonable.

I understand your point. I really do. 4 years ago. I purchased my first "digital video" output player. It was a Denon 5900. DVI output. Absolutely blew away every DVD player out at the moment. $1500

You can walk in Best Buy right now and buy a Samsung 1400 for $299 that makes that Denon look like crap.

It just takes time. Electronics split in half every year. $1000 Blu Ray player at release. $500 in about 10months. I bet you will see sub $200 street price players in the next 5 months.

Give it time. Your Panasonic player is a nice piece of equipment.

P.S. what 10 movies did you pick out for free???

I think some people are missing the boat on this one... The only reason HD-DVD players where so cheap is Toshiba had to do this in order to get any market share. What they should have done is had more fire sales on software and not hardware since this is what is important to the studio's. Studios don't care if it is a PS3 playing one of there movies as long as the software is selling. The only reason we have seen prices come this low so fast is because of the format war. DVD has been a great standard for some time now, it is hard to knock it off it's perch considering how cheap these players are now. The worst thing Blu-Ray could do now is start increasing the cost of there players and not offering less expensive ones. Also keep the BOGO free sales going and from the looks of the flyers this week they are still doing this, plus there dropping prices of certain Blu-Rays... I mean it took awhile before we saw DVD players cheap, I think I paid some good coin for my S-7000 with the switches and ironically I still have it and it still plays most DVDs I have.

I am just curious how much Sony has lost in this whole ordeal? I mean I am lost myself with all these profile talks! Got to love an inconsist hardware...

Everyone keeps saying the BD better have a cheap player. What next, HD TVs need to be given away as well? The truth is HDM is a privilege and not a right. It is expensive to get a HD TV and a player. :)

HDTVs have been out forever and people are finally getting out and buying them. Price matters, if you think otherwise explain why Walmart is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooo successful. :)

wal mart is successful because they are good at marketing and the best cut throat business in the history of mankind.

check their prices, they are not better than anyone else.

No they won't.

Blu-ray is designed to be -the- format for 10-15 years, and probably beyond given in the 50+ year history of TV we've only JUST replaced NTSC.

10-15 years? :rolleyes: You're smoking too much Sony pipe, or Toshiba pipe for you HD DVD fans ;). DVD is right at 10 years, but it was a revolutionary change, whereas Blu-ray and HD DVD are evolutionary - at best. No way Blu-ray or HD DVD (if it makes it) is the preferred delivery system in 10-15 years.

Content delivery has advanced proportionately faster in the last 5 years (and I'm not referring to optical discs) than it has in the last 50 years. Just look at Netflix's recent announcement of STB's that will enable VOD from them. I'm assuming it's only DVD for now, but you wait, high definition will come. I don't care how much people may dislike Microsoft or their business practices, they are correct in that VOD will be the future.

Just look at downloadable music. CD sales declining year after year and downloads increasing year after year. This is not rocket science. When high definition material becomes available at the click of a button and you can watch instantly or near instantly - bye, bye optical media. Sure, I understand there's dinosaurs out there that just have to be able to hold content they own, but they won't hinder progress. Where's Bill The Seer when I need him?

wal mart is successful because they are good at marketing and the best cut throat business in the history of mankind.

check their prices, they are not better than anyone else.

Wow.. you can't be serious. So you are going on record saying prices has nothing to do with Walmart's success?

Wow.. you can't be serious. So you are going on record saying prices has nothing to do with Walmart's success?

Yes, if you look at their pricing it is pretty much the same every where. You will see "great" deals, loss leaders. Milk, toilet paper, diapers etc.etc. They will be sold at a loss. They expect you to pick up another item that is sold at regular price. This is done at pretty much any retail establishment. Also if you notice, milk will be in one of the back corners so you have to walk through the entire store.

Check into it. You will be very surprised.

10-15 years? :rolleyes: You're smoking too much Sony pipe, or Toshiba pipe for you HD DVD fans ;). DVD is right at 10 years, but it was a revolutionary change, whereas Blu-ray and HD DVD are evolutionary - at best. No way Blu-ray or HD DVD (if it makes it) is the preferred delivery system in 10-15 years.

Content delivery has advanced proportionately faster in the last 5 years (and I'm not referring to optical discs) than it has in the last 50 years. Just look at Netflix's recent announcement of STB's that will enable VOD from them. I'm assuming it's only DVD for now, but you wait, high definition will come. I don't care how much people may dislike Microsoft or their business practices, they are correct in that VOD will be the future.

Just look at downloadable music. CD sales declining year after year and downloads increasing year after year. This is not rocket science. When high definition material becomes available at the click of a button and you can watch instantly or near instantly - bye, bye optical media. Sure, I understand there's dinosaurs out there that just have to be able to hold content they own, but they won't hinder progress. Where's Bill The Seer when I need him?

Agreed. 10-15 years is laughable. HDM will only be a marginal outgrowth of DVD. Only a small percentage of consumers will pay 400 for a DVD player regardless of whether or not it's a hi-def format player. An even smaller percentage will rebuy existing movies in their catalogue. DVD is everywhere and in everything. If Blu-Ray doesnt get to 100 bux and below in a year, it will be dead too. You can already order Hi Def movies on demand from cable company, xbox live, and soon Sony's PSN and Netflix.

If the war is over you will see Blu-Ray pricing effectively rise in the near future. The 5 free movie offer for Blu-Ray is set to expire on 1/18/08 if memory serves. BOGOs from Amazon will dry up, etc. There will be no incentive to compete against HD DVD. There will be occasional sale prices on CE devices, but those vendors need to make money as well.

On the software side, expect features to no longer be mentioned or used. Profile 2.0 will languish. Few movies will use advanced features since there is no need to compete against HD DVD.

Thank Toshiba for driving down pricing and forcing BD to use some of its features - but get used to the idea that those days are behind you.

Agreed. 10-15 years is laughable. HDM will only be a marginal outgrowth of DVD. Only a small percentage of consumers will pay 400 for a DVD player regardless of whether or not it's a hi-def format player. An even smaller percentage will rebuy existing movies in their catalogue. DVD is everywhere and in everything. If Blu-Ray doesnt get to 100 bux and below in a year, it will be dead too. You can already order Hi Def movies on demand from cable company, xbox live, and soon Sony's PSN and Netflix.

If the war is over you will see Blu-Ray pricing effectively rise in the near future. The 5 free movie offer for Blu-Ray is set to expire on 1/18/08 if memory serves. BOGOs from Amazon will dry up, etc. There will be no incentive to compete against HD DVD. There will be occasional sale prices on CE devices, but those vendors need to make money as well.

On the software side, expect features to no longer be mentioned or used. Profile 2.0 will languish. Few movies will use advanced features since there is no need to compete against HD DVD.

Thank Toshiba for driving down pricing and forcing BD to use some of its features - but get used to the idea that those days are behind you.

Why oh why no one here understands that the BDA is better served going after DVD because of the royalty structure is beyond me.

The Prices will drop to pick up some of that royalty cash Toshiba is bringing in on DVD, which incidentally is why we were in this whole mess anyway.

Yes, if you look at their pricing it is pretty much the same every where. You will see "great" deals. Loss leaders are what they are called. Milk, toilet paper, diapers etc.etc. They will be sold at a loss. They expect you to pick up another item that is sold at regular price. This is done at pretty much any retail establishment. Also if you notice, milk will be in one of the back corners so you have to walk through the entire store.

Check into it. You will be very surprised.

So why isn't every retailer as successful as Walmart? You seem to gloss over the fact that Walmart does drive low prices and has the buying power to force efficiencies from its vendors. Walmart's buying power is what allows it shave pennies off of every thing in it's stores. Look it up. You'll be surprised.

Yes, if you look at their pricing it is pretty much the same every where. You will see "great" deals. Loss leaders are what they are called. Milk, toilet paper, diapers etc.etc. They will be sold at a loss. They expect you to pick up another item that is sold at regular price.

Check into it. You will be very surprised.


Oh, I don't argue with the last point.. infact, it is a pricing scheme after all.. It's what gets people in there. Though, if you are comparing exact models of something that Walmart carries to say Best Buy.. yes they will be close... But as huge of a retail chain as Walmart, they have exclusive items made for them.. for cheaper, which brings customers in... which has everything to do with price. Price matters...

This is getting too off-topic though. :) I think it's safe to say that when BD players are much cheaper, we'll see mass adoption... Not at current prices.

Wow.. you can't be serious. So you are going on record saying prices has nothing to do with Walmart's success?

Pricing has something to do with it, but I can buy many things cheaper than I can at Wal-Mart. My wife and I keep track of the prices for items we use, and we know what they sell for at each retailer near us, how often each retailer puts them on sale or as a loss leader, and what the absolute bottom pricing is on the item at each retailer. Wal-Mart is rarely a winner for many of the the items we buy this way, which are mostly groceries, but also other items like light bulbs, garbage bags, etc.

Agreed. 10-15 years is laughable. HDM will only be a marginal outgrowth of DVD. Only a small percentage of consumers will pay 400 for a DVD player regardless of whether or not it's a hi-def format player. An even smaller percentage will rebuy existing movies in their catalogue. DVD is everywhere and in everything. If Blu-Ray doesnt get to 100 bux and below in a year, it will be dead too. You can already order Hi Def movies on demand from cable company, xbox live, and soon Sony's PSN and Netflix.

If the war is over you will see Blu-Ray pricing effectively rise in the near future. The 5 free movie offer for Blu-Ray is set to expire on 1/18/08 if memory serves. BOGOs from Amazon will dry up, etc. There will be no incentive to compete against HD DVD. There will be occasional sale prices on CE devices, but those vendors need to make money as well.

On the software side, expect features to no longer be mentioned or used. Profile 2.0 will languish. Few movies will use advanced features since there is no need to compete against HD DVD.

Thank Toshiba for driving down pricing and forcing BD to use some of its features - but get used to the idea that those days are behind you.

That's pretty pessimistic, considering they still have DVD to compete with. If this truly happened, I would have no incentive to switch from DVD to BD.

M

So why isn't every retailer as successful as Walmart? You seem to gloss over the fact that Walmart does drive low prices and has the buying power to force efficiencies from its vendors. Walmart's buying power is what allows it shave pennies off of every thing in it's stores. Look it up. You'll be surprised.

Target's whole business model has been based off of not being Wal-Mart for the past few years. They charge more for everything and have a much smaller selection of items, yet they have had no problems competing with Wal-Mart and thriving. Of course, it's a much more pleasant shopping experience at Target, which is at least half the draw.

However, we're straying far from the topic at hand.

Pricing has something to do with it, but I can buy many things cheaper than I can at Wal-Mart. My wife and I keep track of the prices for items we use, and we know what they sell for at each retailer near us, how often each retailer puts them on sale or as a loss leader, and what the absolute bottom pricing is on the item at each retailer. Wal-Mart is rarely a winner for many of the the items we buy this way, which are mostly groceries, but also other items like light bulbs, garbage bags, etc.

I am aware you can buy things cheaper.. but price is WHY people shop at Walmart. I don't know how anyone could argue with that. I don't go there because I like the atmosphere.. I go there because I know I am getting a fair price MOST OF THE TIME as opposed to shopping at other retail chains.

Again.. this is pretty far off-topic I think. :)

Why oh why no one here understands that the BDA is better served going after DVD because of the royalty structure is beyond me.

The Prices will drop to pick up some of that royalty cash Toshiba is bringing in on DVD, which incidentally is why we were in this whole mess anyway.

Can you please provide a breakdown of the royalty structure for DVD, and who gets what?

10-15 years? :rolleyes: You're smoking too much Sony pipe, or Toshiba pipe for you HD DVD fans ;). DVD is right at 10 years, but it was a revolutionary change, whereas Blu-ray and HD DVD are evolutionary - at best. No way Blu-ray or HD DVD (if it makes it) is the preferred delivery system in 10-15 years.

Content delivery has advanced proportionately faster in the last 5 years (and I'm not referring to optical discs) than it has in the last 50 years. Just look at Netflix's recent announcement of STB's that will enable VOD from them. I'm assuming it's only DVD for now, but you wait, high definition will come. I don't care how much people may dislike Microsoft or their business practices, they are correct in that VOD will be the future.

Just look at downloadable music. CD sales declining year after year and downloads increasing year after year. This is not rocket science. When high definition material becomes available at the click of a button and you can watch instantly or near instantly - bye, bye optical media. Sure, I understand there's dinosaurs out there that just have to be able to hold content they own, but they won't hinder progress. Where's Bill The Seer when I need him?

VOD will replace physical rentals. Not so sure about purchases though.

I welcome the high BD players...i really want more boutique CEs to make players.

That's pretty pessimistic, considering they still have DVD to compete with. If this truly happened, I would have no incentive to switch from DVD to BD.

M

Compete how exactly? First you have to replace the DVD sockets with BD sockets - an expensive proposition for the world economy when you look at the number of DVD drives out there.

HDM is a luxury item at this time. Given the pace of technology it will be replaced by something even better and more temporary and so on.

HDM, like any product has a lifetime. HD DVD and Blu-Ray will have shorter lives and shallower penetration compared to DVD because it's evolutionary and not revolutionary.

If we were talking about going from VHS to HDM then sure - it would be a huge deal with winner take all, but again it's an evolutionary product. It doesnt force people to buy an HDTV... people buying an HDTV MIGHT buy an HD player.

Considering that the BDA now has to churn out larger numbers of movies and in greater quantity you'll end up with fewer features on BD discs and OK transfers. They wont have the time to polish every release but they wont care since they arent competing against HD DVD.

I'm set for awhile, what I think their should be is a Sony, Toshiba or Panisonic 2.0 for $199-$299 actual cost. Stop acting like I want the absurd when I'm asking for the reasonable.

You have to understand that Toshiba has been subsidizing their players which is one reason why the well known manufacturers supported Blu-ray. Toshiba's prices have been partially artificial in a sense. No one was crazy enough to jump into HD DVD - they weren't in the business to lose money (Toshiba's strategy made more sense for themselves because of royalties, risk they had to take to even challenge BD, etc.). The BD manufacturers are making money on their products. The prices will continue to drop. Don't forget, a year ago there weren't any standalones cheaper than $1000 - now they're down to $339. Even though it's Sharp, they have been making better products as of late and actually many people would consider Toshiba on the same level. All in all, BD prices are actually dropping faster than DVD did at this point.

Compete how exactly? First you have to replace the DVD sockets with BD sockets - an expensive proposition for the world economy when you look at the number of DVD drives out there.

HDM is a luxury item at this time. Given the pace of technology it will be replaced by something even better and more temporary and so on.

HDM, like any product has a lifetime. HD DVD and Blu-Ray will have shorter lives and shallower penetration compared to DVD because it's evolutionary and not revolutionary.

If we were talking about going from VHS to HDM then sure - it would be a huge deal with winner take all, but again it's an evolutionary product. It doesnt force people to buy an HDTV... people buying an HDTV MIGHT buy an HD player.

Considering that the BDA now has to churn out larger numbers of movies and in greater quantity you'll end up with fewer features on BD discs and OK transfers. They wont have the time to polish every release but they wont care since they arent competing against HD DVD.

Good post. I have to agree that the tech will have slow penetration and with no other HD competitor, transfers will suffer. People don't NEED movies to be in HD.. infact, still most people are on SDTVs and will be for a while. I had to nearly beg my parents to upgrade to a HDTV and experience HD by selling them my LCD for half of what they sell for at the store still. People are in no rush to get HDM... and even less know or care about it. They knew what DVD was and it was an OBVIOUS upgrade. Everyone I know I have preached HD to just simply don't care. DVD is fine for them... Some of these people are fairly techy.. It's amazing the lack of interest for HDM!

Agreed. 10-15 years is laughable. HDM will only be a marginal outgrowth of DVD. Only a small percentage of consumers will pay 400 for a DVD player regardless of whether or not it's a hi-def format player. An even smaller percentage will rebuy existing movies in their catalogue. DVD is everywhere and in everything. If Blu-Ray doesnt get to 100 bux and below in a year, it will be dead too. You can already order Hi Def movies on demand from cable company, xbox live, and soon Sony's PSN and Netflix.

If the war is over you will see Blu-Ray pricing effectively rise in the near future. The 5 free movie offer for Blu-Ray is set to expire on 1/18/08 if memory serves. BOGOs from Amazon will dry up, etc. There will be no incentive to compete against HD DVD. There will be occasional sale prices on CE devices, but those vendors need to make money as well.


DVD has been out a little over 10 years now, and Hollywood as already seen sales start drop with regular DVD. I think High Def DVD's run will probably be less then that. When I first heard about High Definition Discs, I said cool, I might buy new titles in HD, but probably not buy titles I already have. But having owned the PS3 for only 2 months, I have must have bought 10 titles that I already own. The picture improvement is nice, but I think the upgrade in sound is really what makes me do that. I do disagree with you, in that I think the price of discs will go down once the format war ends. Most of a studios profit on DVD is made in the first week a film is released. After that, the studios and retailers want to clear product out.

It means that pretty much half of all HDM player owners just got shafted by Warner. Wouldn't want to be in Warners shoes right now.

You wouldn't? :rolleyes: Come now.

Where does this stuff come from?

That's pretty pessimistic, considering they still have DVD to compete with. If this truly happened, I would have no incentive to switch from DVD to BD.

M

I wouldn't really call it pessimism, I think it's realism.

Your second sentence 100% reinforces my point - there's very little compelling reason for the vast majority of the buying population to switch from DVD to HDM. With other providers of HD content rolling out non-physical products right now, and with other products in the near future, optical has a very difficult and shady road ahead.
DVD has been out a little over 10 years now, and Hollywood as already seen sales start drop with regular DVD.
Yep, and Blu-ray or HD DVD will not be the jumpstart they hope(d) it would.
VOD will replace physical rentals. Not so sure about purchases though.

Rentals will definitely come first, but purchases will come hot on rentals heels, unless the content owners really, really fight it. Given the current landscape of Blu-ray and HD DVD, and even the foreseeable future, I just can't imagine the owners hitting the brakes on VOD, which will be more secure, consume less overhead and will require less long-term financial investment.

I understand your point. I really do. 4 years ago. I purchased my first "digital video" output player. It was a Denon 5900. DVI output. Absolutely blew away every DVD player out at the moment. $1500

You can walk in Best Buy right now and buy a Samsung 1400 for $299 that makes that Denon look like crap.

It just takes time. Electronics split in half every year. $1000 Blu Ray player at release. $500 in about 10months. I bet you will see sub $200 street price players in the next 5 months.

Give it time. Your Panasonic player is a nice piece of equipment.

P.S. what 10 movies did you pick out for free???

I expect to pay more for a bit less, I'm an "early adopter." I spent +$5000 on a HD front-projector that is easily outdone by a $2500 model today, and my biggest folly-chunk went to a $2200 DVDO external upscailer, which can be shown up in PQ by my $400 XA2.

So $300 seems plenty affordable to me, but I am so not the general public, most of us aren't.

Oh, my ten movies were (in-store) Pan's Labyrinth, House of a 1000 Corpses, 2001, Omega Man, & The Shining, and my mail-ins will be The Prestige, Superman-seller, American Psycho, Omen 666, and The Patriot-seller.

I also bought Basic Instinct (used), Scanner Darkly, Corpse Bride, Deliverance, and ordered, House of Wax, 28 Days Later, 28 Weeks Later, Twenty-Million Miles To Earth, Bram Stoker's Dracula, and Night of the Werewolf/Vengeance of the Zombies.

Hey, I already have the attach-rate of room full of gamers ;)

I wouldn't really call it pessimism, I think it's realism.

Your second sentence 100% reinforces my point - there's very little compelling reason for the vast majority of the buying population to switch from DVD to HDM. With other providers of HD content rolling out non-physical products right now, and with other products in the near future, optical has a very difficult and shady road ahead.

What I'm not sure i get about downloads, is that demand for it will exceed rental demand now. I don't think people who buy media see it as inconvenient if they truly want to own movies. Why does BEST BUY have 4-5 aisles of CDs when surely all that music is available via download?

I'm pretty confident that by Black Friday this year we'll be seeing $299 *2.0* players and $150-$199 *1.1* players and maybe even some clearance $99 1.0 players for those willing.

The BDP-S300 alone proves the point... Sony will both drop the price on this model and/or replace it with a 1.1/2.0 player for the same price. No way they just keep selling it at the current price and no way they don't release a better player for the same price, especially in the wake of all the competition just announced at CES (yes, there is competition with only one format!). Sony knows firsthand the importance of having a relatively low-cost player with the Sony brand which is why the BDP ended up one of the best-selling BD players over the holidays (despite the PS3 being a much better value).

Maybe this isn't as ridiculously low as subsidized Toshiba, but I don't find these prices unreasonable or inflated in any way.

Yep, and Blu-ray or HD DVD will not be the jumpstart they hope(d) it would.
You're basing that on the large increase in HDM sales this year?

Rentals will definitely come first, but purchases will come hot on rentals heels, unless the content owners really, really fight it. Given the current landscape of Blu-ray and HD DVD, and even the foreseeable future, I just can't imagine the owners hitting the brakes on VOD, which will be more secure, consume less overhead and will require less long-term financial investment.
Physical media is king. 90% of the music market and almost 100% of the video market is dominated by physical media sales currently.

VOD goes against decades of consumer purchasing habits. People bought cassettes and inserted them in cassette players; they bought VHS, they bought CDs, they bought DVD, and they'll buy Blu-Ray.

What you're predicting is far out of touch with reality. 5 years from now, I'll still be able to walk into a Wal-Mart or Best Buy and see isles full of physical media. Digital downloads will increase, but will not come anywhere close to physical media sales.

It's hilarious that HD-DVD (even with lower sales) was the natural successor to DVD, but Blu-Ray is destined to fail (even though it's a roughly identical optical disc format). And now VOD is going to win, with even less support than the newly departed HD-DVD.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=927750&topic=40623596

I started this thread on the PS3 forum at gamefaqs to see what the "stats" are, I realize its a small small percentage of people but most people that have a ps3 have it for the games, and they don't even have an HDTV

I had a friend from my work that told me that blu ray looks better than dvd, then he told me he has yet to pick up an HDTV, so thats what is going on out there, pimple faced children are buying blu ray movies because they have the player but watching on a ****ing crt. and this is how the format war was won pardon my french but what the ****.

I realize that there are some people that are buying the ps3 as a blu ray player, but to count it in the numbers shouldn't be there because as you can see in the posts on Gamefaqs many only have casino royal or spiderman plus the 5 free and have no intention of anything else.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=927750&topic=40623596

I started this thread on the PS3 forum at gamefaqs to see what the "stats" are, I realize its a small small percentage of people but most people that have a ps3 have it for the games, and they don't even have an HDTV

I had a friend from my work that told me that blu ray looks better than dvd, then he told me he has yet to pick up an HDTV, so thats what is going on out there, pimple faced children are buying blu ray movies because they have the player but watching on a ****ing crt. and this is how the format war was won pardon my french but what the ****.

I realize that there are some people that are buying the ps3 as a blu ray player, but to count it in the numbers shouldn't be there because as you can see in the posts on Gamefaqs many only have casino royal or spiderman plus the 5 free and have no intention of anything else.Please stop with the anecdotal evidence.
A very recent study shows that 71% of PS3 owners have an HDTV, and even more suprisingly, 66% of Wii owners even have an HDTV.
http://www.cepro.com/article/gamers_ripe_for_high_end_audio_and_video_systems_research_sh ows/D3/

Do you guys realize that Up convert players are selling for $199-$299. I have a friend who bought a Samsung HDTV in November and refused to buy a Blu ray or a HD DVD player( even at 99 bucks) because of the format war. Instead he bought a sony Up convert player for $169.

as long as this war is waging, you're going to have people on the fences regardless of price. I'm a Blu ray supporter and i would buy an HDDVD player before i buy an up convert DVD player but some people just don't see it that way.

Everyone keeps saying the BD better have a cheap player. What next, HD TVs need to be given away as well? The truth is HDM is a privilege and not a right. It is expensive to get a HD TV and a player. :)

What a mind-bogglingly stupid thing to say... though I can't say that I am surprised coming from a blu-boi.

It *wasn't* expensive to get a cheap HD media player until now.

Do you guys realize that Up convert players are selling for $199-$299. I have a friend who bought a Samsung HDTV in November and refused to buy a Blu ray or a HD DVD player( even at 99 bucks) because of the format war. Instead he bought a sony Up convert player for $169.

as long as this war is waging, you're going to have people on the fences regardless of price. I'm a Blu ray supporter and i would buy an HDDVD player before i buy an up convert DVD player but some people just don't see it that way.

:) I'm GLAD someone else notices this!!!

I'm not sure about $199 (I haven't seen an upconvert player this high in a while) but $79-$149 is what retailers like Best Buy and Walmart have their Upconvert players priced at (lower end crappy players).

Completely agree with the posters above that state there will be mainstream 1.0 or 1.1 players at the $149-$199 mark priced before Q4. Thats faster than DVD moved prices down!

I'm in favor of the mods clamping down these stupid threads. keep it in one area, heard this same over price dribble how many times this weekend?

Hd-dvd: people that live in the fantasy world.

There lines are always wait: Wait for the 299 player, wait for the 199 player

wait for black friday. Wait for after christmass.

Now you will be waiting forever with a dieing format. Enjoy the wait... I'll enjoy the movies.

I'm in favor of the mods clamping down these stupid threads. keep it in one area, heard this same over price dribble how many times this weekend?

Hd-dvd: people that live in the fantasy world.

There lines are always wait: Wait for the 299 player, wait for the 199 player

wait for black friday. Wait for after christmass.

Now you will be waiting forever with a dieing format. Enjoy the wait... I'll enjoy the movies.

I'm just waiting for all these sour grapes to turn into wine. :) Maybe The Bland will give us a review. I've bought a few of his recommendations before. :D

closed