Bill Gates Unplugged (http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/2008/01/07/bill-gates-unplugged/)

Seems to show MS true intentions about the format war. Keep it going so both will lose and we can offer downloads.

Seems to show MS true intentions about the format war. Keep it going so both will lose and we can offer downloads.
Yep - a lesson to many, never bet against Mr Gates (I remember how hard they laughed at him when he started that "retarded" thing called USB). I'll bet he's laughing at the format that relies on JAVA as ever being anything but a problem child...........plays right into his hands.

Here is the relevant part:

Warner Brothers said last week it was backing Blu-ray exclusively. Will Microsoft remain committed to the HD DVD format even if it appears that the media companies are backing Blu-ray?

BG Certainly we supported both Blu-ray and HD DVD as Windows peripherals. The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way. I still think a format battle is going on there. Our contribution is the HDi Interactive format piece has been really well received. We hope to see that used broadly. I think the real competitor in the long run is digital (video) download. Just like in music, it is going to be the biggest of the three.

You kind of sound agnostic about the formats.

BG No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

..does anyone buy CDs anymore?
I do because I don't listen to lossy music.;)

I do because I don't listen to lossy music.;)Music Giants sells lossless downloads - even some multichannel. CD's are dead for me - except for the legal stereo CD-R's I burn for the car from a Music Giants download.

Only problem is that it is way too easy to satisfy immediate gratification and quickly buy music via dl's. Watch the alcohol intake! :o

Music Giants sells lossless downloads - even some multichannel. CD's are dead for me - except for the legal stereo CD-R's I burn for the car from a Music Giants download.

Only problem is that it is way too easy to satisfy immediate gratification and quickly buy music via dl's. Watch the alcohol intake! :o

First: there is not enough choices of lossless downloads.

B: :D While I have all my music ripped to a RAID and have a USB backup I still don't trust HD's in the log run I want the actual hard copy.

3: I still get a high satisfaction by opening and holding in my hand.

All of which apply to HDM also.

Just as I thought. Ms doesn't give a crap about HD DVD. :(

And sure digital downloads are the future, but not with the current pathetic broadband connections in the u.s. I get an average of 1.5mbs. How long would it take to download a 1080p movie even if it was available?

LOL @ him mentioning the Zune in the same sentence as the IPod.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Yes. CD is still my primary music format. Online stores don't offer lossless compression yet (flac, wavpack,etc) so until they do that I am not even consider buying a single download.

LOL @ him mentioning the Zune in the same sentence as the IPod.

what so funny about it?

Smaller market share but it is still around, just like the Creative Zen, Cowon X5, Iriver etc.



I am glad Mr Gates and I are on the exact same wavelength when it comes to CE now adays.

I have said it before, "deaths" are a thing of the 80's. Today the magic word is MARKET SHARE.

LOL @ him mentioning the Zune in the same sentence as the IPod.

At least he said IPod first.

PS. Bill's days at MS are numbered. Who knows what they'll do when he's gone.

Hey I love the advantages of high quality sources but convience always trumps quality. Always. That being said I don't believe physical media is going to disappear (CD's and DVD's at least) but the download option will become more and more prevalent over time. Look if you give me a library of movies in high def DD+ sound with thousands to choose from for $20 a month why in the world wouldn't I sign up tomorrow.

i will like hd downloads if i can keep the movie.... thats the only way to work but how big are hd movies, just the movie?

Digital downloads for music are one thing. For the best HD picture quality we are dealing with 30gb-50gb! files. With current average U.S. internet speeds around 2mbps you are talking days to download a single movie. Even if the average was around 8mbps thats between 8-13 hours assuming the server can keep up. That's for a single film.

If quality is important to us...
Forget about it! Not for awhile anyway. :)

To a certain extent he has been a figurehead at Microsoft. Steven Ballmer has been running the company. I do admire Mr. Gates for his charitable work which has occupied most of his time.

Mr. Gates may be miscalculating a bit in equating video download with music and MP3 just yet.

1) Music lends itself to portability as an important factor moreso than video.
Hometheater not so much so.

2) Quality of video given the growth of hdtv is more valued than quality of audio.

3) The sheer size of HD video vs. Audio equals a ways to go before mainstream consumers can collect and own all their video this way.

4) There is still a market for those that want ownership of the videos rather than rental. Movie downloads have remained a rental application. Challenging the video rental market is more realistic than challenging the ownership market in the short-term. BD and HD are about ownership.

5) When Sony moves the PSN service into direct competition with Xbox Live Sony will offer both the digitial media options AND the media / disk ownership option via Playstation. Without a viable hd dvd format MS will offer only the digitial option and Playstation will be the more versatile media center device.

As Sony catches up on game offerings and takes advantage of the better brand name power they have and international market advantages MS will have to concede 360 being the lesser choice as a versatile machine and potentially even consider a blu-ray addon option, paying of course to Sony.

That said, MS still has the better flexibility though in terms of lowering price on the 360 as time goes on and price ususally trumps quality for the mass market.

My understanding on disk size is that the download does not need to be 30-50 gigs but can be much smaller according to our experts on downloads on the board. I think the range is in the 10 -20 gig range. But I agree the pipline needs to get better and the movie on disc is the best quality source at the moment. Its just another option.

^^^^ versatile is one thing but for gaming... 360 takes the cake. I have both and even with xbox live with its problems, i still prefer xbox over my ps3.

Movies- PS3 does fine with blu ray but i mainly watch my dvds on the xbox.

.does anyone buy CDs anymore?
I do. I've had 2 computers crash on me in the last 3 years. Music is too important to me to risk being on a HD only. Much of my collection is rare and/or OOP, so the odds of finding for downloading is slim, much less lossless. Lossy music sounds like crap on my music only system. Hell, I still listen to my LPs, many of which never made it to CD.
J

My understanding on disk size is that the download does not need to be 30-50 gigs but can be much smaller according to our experts on downloads on the board. I think the range is in the 10 -20 gig range. But I agree the pipline needs to get better and the movie on disc is the best quality source at the moment. Its just another option.

A simple calculation reveals that for a 2 hour movie it's the bitrate (Mbps) multiplied by 0.9.

So for a 25 Mbps video/audio track the total size will be 22.5 gig.

My understanding on disk size is that the download does not need to be 30-50 gigs but can be much smaller according to our experts on downloads on the board. I think the range is in the 10 -20 gig range. But I agree the pipline needs to get better and the movie on disc is the best quality source at the moment. Its just another option.

Not only the pipeline but if you want to own the movies and have them available for rewatching at any time you also have to STORE the movies.

Sure network savvy users can/will do it but as soon as you say "on your home network" you probably lost the Mass Market. Pop in a disk vs "on your home network"?

Online stores don't offer lossless compression yet (flac, wavpack,etc) so until they do that I am not even consider buying a single download.Wrong, some do.

For example, Music Giants has been selling WMA lossless music downloads for the past two years.

I find it interesting that MS really stayed out of the Warner decision but in return got Disney for their service. Sounds like a behind the scenes deal :).

Still IMO there is no way Warner would have gone HD unless Fox really would have switched. I still think Fox used their BD+ releases to test the effectiveness of BD+ and found it was adequate for plugging the AACS workaround. After that test there was no way they would have ever switched and just used the deal Toshiba offered them as a way to get more money and concessions out of BDA.

As far as downloads go, I think they'll be successful as a VoD rental like movie service, but I don't think it'll work as a Download to own service. They'd need to make it DRM free like music will be in the future for it to succeed. Otherwise, the download to own service is nothing more than the failed divx format minus the disc.

Wrong, some do.

For example, Music Giants has been selling WMA lossless music downloads for the past two years.

1. They have a limited selection. I put in The Flower Kings as a test and they don't have it.

2. WMA? It's probably DRM infested then. Now how can I play that shite on my Linux box.

At least he said IPod first.

PS. Bill's days at MS are numbered. Who knows what they'll do when he's gone.

Continue to sell windows.

they can not provide all our music in lossless how are they going to provide all our
movies in hd.

Just as I thought. Ms doesn't give a crap about HD DVD. :(

And sure digital downloads are the future, but not with the current pathetic broadband connections in the u.s. I get an average of 1.5mbs. How long would it take to download a 1080p movie even if it was available?
To say nothing about some areas of country still on dialup. Of course I could have a dish installed and then pay 69.00 a month to get online. Of course this is after my new Toshiba TV/A-35 player charges. etc etc etc. I did call Toshiba support this morning and lady said that they will continue making HD-players and other companies (she didn't say who) will pick up Warner's slack in the HDs. I was just curious about what kind of answer I would get, hope the lady is still working next month. Why would anybody be surprised about Billy Gates interview. I'm the stupid s**t, I figured Microsoft was behind HD and it would be at very least a longer battle or a win. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid!!!!!!!!!!! As far as his charitable work, It's a tax write off. (not sure of tax laws when given to other countries though)

I suppose you could say I've got seven days to download two movies, since I usually rent two movies a week.

I have always found the allegations of MS somehow driving the format war to ruin so they could offer downloads to be foolish and not thought through.

Microsoft is a software at the core, regardless of any one product they support, software is their business.

Even had HD DVD won, MS would be foolish not to have been exploring digital downloads for the future as several other companies are currently doing.

This format war was driven and decided by CE manufacturers and Hollywood studios.

Wrong, some do.

For example, Music Giants has been selling WMA lossless music downloads for the past two years.

http://i50.photobucket.com/albums/f335/sharkcohen/sharktop4.jpg

I'll pass.

I still do! 3,000 CDs and growing! Just like DVD and high defintion.

If I want download, then I'll download it for FREE today...but I choose not to.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Mr. Gates may be miscalculating a bit in equating video download with music and MP3 just yet.

1) Music lends itself to portability as an important factor moreso than video.
Hometheater not so much so.

2) Quality of video given the growth of hdtv is more valued than quality of audio.

3) The sheer size of HD video vs. Audio equals a ways to go before mainstream consumers can collect and own all their video this way.

4) There is still a market for those that want ownership of the videos rather than rental. Movie downloads have remained a rental application. Challenging the video rental market is more realistic than challenging the ownership market in the short-term. BD and HD are about ownership.

5) When Sony moves the PSN service into direct competition with Xbox Live Sony will offer both the digitial media options AND the media / disk ownership option via Playstation. Without a viable hd dvd format MS will offer only the digitial option and Playstation will be the more versatile media center device.

As Sony catches up on game offerings and takes advantage of the better brand name power they have and international market advantages MS will have to concede 360 being the lesser choice as a versatile machine and potentially even consider a blu-ray addon option, paying of course to Sony.

That said, MS still has the better flexibility though in terms of lowering price on the 360 as time goes on and price ususally trumps quality for the mass market.

I disagree....

1.) Video portability is very important. Portable DVD players are very prevalent, many cars come with DVD players or sometimes multiple dvd players in larger SUVs. Ipod moved to the touch with large video screen, the nano added video as well. Many people have multiple video players. I'm not buying a copy of each movie for each system.

2.) Even with the growth of HDTV sales, I'd still say that most people don't care as much as you think they do about PQ. They prefer convenience. How many people out there have HDTVs with no HD cable or antenna? When DVD came out i remember people buying dvd players and hooking them up to the RF adapters. They didn't buy DVD for the increase in PQ they bought it for the convience factor that dvd offered. Smaller form factor and no rewinding. Why was VHS LP mode so popular? It looked like crap, but hey you could get more on a tape.

3.) Yes HD video is bigger, but HDDs are too. 1TB drives are shipping and are relatively cheap. Plus, just like MP3 went mainstream for it's convience, don't think people won't accept HD-lite downloads. HD on demand, xbox live HD downloads and other HD-lite is perfectly fine for most people.

4.) Yes people like to own, but many are moving away from the market. I was just talking to my dad about this the other day (they have a huge pile of purchased DVDs), and he said they quit buying most movies and now rent as they primarily watch a movie only once. HD on-demand or online rental/download is perfect for someone like that.

5.) Problem is that PS3 has no games other than some ports of Xbox titles. Right now many are buying PS3 for BR only, but that will change and next generation BR hardware comes out.

Why are people so uptight that MS didn't get involved in HD DVD negotiations?

They don't really have a reason to.

For one: they are in a 3 way win win situation.

- HD Downloads prevails: MS still wins VC1 codec or WMV-HD as the most supported format by CE's, online distributors. HD-Divx may pose a threat but even then it's not up to par as far into market penatration as MS has with their codecs that come standard on all Windows PCs.

- HD DVD prevails: MS still wins HD DVD uses VC1 codec & HDi. They may also get other royalties from the HD DVD group

- Blu Ray prevails: MS still wins, Blu Ray studios more and more are using the superior VC1 codec.

Now I listed these in the order of what is MOST profitable to MS. With downloads being the #1, followed by HD, and then Blu.

So while MS officially supports HD DVD, money still talks. And thats why they have no reason to get involved too much because they can let someone else foot the bill for the battle and still come up on top in the end.

Our broadband speeds are just not up to par for downloading HD movie content!!! This is such a joke.... Not only that, I'm not going to download an HD movie that's going to take up 5-10% of my hard drive space.....that's just not realistic.....

Also, with Microsoft doing this, it's like the Divx vs. DVD back in the 90's. No one wanted Divx because you didn't own anything..... I get to watch a move a few times before it becomes unplayable....huh?!?!!?

I suppose you could say I've got seven days to download two movies, since I usually rent two movies a week.

Within the 5 mile radius of where I live there is a Bestbuy, a Target, a Wal-Mart, a Borders, 2 Barnes & Nobles, a Block Bluster so I unless I could get a HD video file download within a hour...

i will like hd downloads if i can keep the movie.... thats the only way to work but how big are hd movies, just the movie?

Resident Evil
720p Xvid
Audio AC3/DD
4,700 MB

3:10 To Yuma
720p WMB
Audio AC3/DD
8,300 MB


Casino Royale
1080p x264
Audio dts, AC3/DD
13,000 MB

Also, with Microsoft doing this, it's like the Divx vs. DVD back in the 90's. No one wanted Divx because you didn't own anything..... I get to watch a move a few times before it becomes unplayable....huh?!?!!?
Fox's (& to an extent Disney) dream come true - everytime you watch it you pay, they've never wanted you to own the media.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

But if Warner and Fox had gone red - wouldn't BR be in basically same boat studio-wise that HD DVD is in right now?

I disagree....

1.) Video portability is very important. Portable DVD players are very prevalent, many cars come with DVD players or sometimes multiple dvd players in larger SUVs. Ipod moved to the touch with large video screen, the nano added video as well. Many people have multiple video players. I'm not buying a copy of each movie for each system.

2.) Even with the growth of HDTV sales, I'd still say that most people don't care as much as you think they do about PQ. They prefer convenience. How many people out there have HDTVs with no HD cable or antenna? When DVD came out i remember people buying dvd players and hooking them up to the RF adapters. They didn't buy DVD for the increase in PQ they bought it for the convience factor that dvd offered. Smaller form factor and no rewinding. Why was VHS LP mode so popular? It looked like crap, but hey you could get more on a tape.

3.) Yes HD video is bigger, but HDDs are too. 1TB drives are shipping and are relatively cheap. Plus, just like MP3 went mainstream for it's convience, don't think people won't accept HD-lite downloads. HD on demand, xbox live HD downloads and other HD-lite is perfectly fine for most people.

4.) Yes people like to own, but many are moving away from the market. I was just talking to my dad about this the other day (they have a huge pile of purchased DVDs), and he said they quit buying most movies and now rent as they primarily watch a movie only once. HD on-demand or online rental/download is perfect for someone like that.

5.) Problem is that PS3 has no games other than some ports of Xbox titles. Right now many are buying PS3 for BR only, but that will change and next generation BR hardware comes out.

You counter points are very good, and you may well be right along with MS. I don't raise my points as though they are ironclad, no one really knows but I do think convenience and ownership are 2 big factors. How many every day dvd buyers are going to collect on these Terrabyte drives?

PS3 has some games and will get more this year but yes, 360 has that lead now and Sony is the chaser. Don't forget Sony has brand name power though and MS still has an uphill fight outside of North America.

It seems that Gates wants to save face after backing the losing format. A format backed by MS' biggest rivals (Sony, Apple) won and that's not a good thing for MS.

It's obvious that MS didn't really help HDDVD that much but still it won't be a good thing for them if blu-ray manages to become the next DVD.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.I don't really see that scenario prolong the war... it would have given HD DVD every major (except Disney and Sony), plus their tag-alongs. If that had happened, Disney wouldn't have been far behind. And HD DVD was building serious momentum even before, evidenced by Sony's CEO's "stalemate" admission. Seems to me that the format war would most definitely have ended, and most definitely in HD DVD's favor.

Hmmm... MS = Cat, Sony = Mouse....?

You counter points are very good, and you may well be right along with MS. I don't raise my points as though they are ironclad, no one really knows but I do think convenience and ownership are 2 big factors. How many every day dvd buyers are going to collect on these Terrabyte drives?

[B]PS3 has some games and will get more this year but yes, 360 has that lead now and Sony is the chaser. Don't forget Sony has brand name power though and MS still has an uphill fight outside of North America.[B]

The PS3 has two games that any hardcore gamers care about and those are MGS4 and the Final Fantasy series. It's questionable whether either those will make an impact large since they don't historically sell as well as some multiplatform games like EA sports titles and the like.

Unless the PS3 some how finds some way to outsell the Wii and the 360 in hardware sales monthly over the next year, don't expect the third party development focus on those two consoles to change or the PS3 to move out of third place.

Nintendo has always had brand name following and was immensely strong internationally before Sony stepped on the scene two generations ago and relegated them to almost irrelevance due to Nintendo's then reluctance to change their delivery model (cartridge/proprietary GB disc vs. CD/DVD).

This is without mentioning the other major CEs Nintendo defeated prior to that, ie. Philips (CD-I), NEC (Turbo Grafix 16), Matsushita/Panasonic (3DO).

Brand name only gets you so far in the gaming industry.

I think all this talk of there will be a video equivalent of MP3 is way overblown. The two scenarios are completely different.

For example, what do people do typically when listening to an MP3? The answer: Something else. While the sense of sound is used for listening, typically the listener is doing something else such as jogging, working, riding on a plane, etc. The attention is not 100% focused on the MP3.

When someone watches a movie, that's what they do. It's a different experience. It's also one that stimulates a human's strongest sense: sight. While people may be willing to sacrifice some audio quality while working out, so they don't have to carry 20 CDs, that's not the case with a movie.

Also, the packaging is important. MP3 allows you to choose an individual song. How many CDs have people bought where they really only wanted 1 or 2 hits? That's not the case with a DVD or BD. You buy one movie; you watch one movie, typically.

I don't think digital downloads will ever be the main source until optical video quality reaches the limit of human perception (like CD) and then maybe it's a next step from there. See you in 2050.

I disagree....

1.) Video portability is very important. Portable DVD players are very prevalent, many cars come with DVD players or sometimes multiple dvd players in larger SUVs. Ipod moved to the touch with large video screen, the nano added video as well. Many people have multiple video players. I'm not buying a copy of each movie for each system.

2.) Even with the growth of HDTV sales, I'd still say that most people don't care as much as you think they do about PQ. They prefer convenience. How many people out there have HDTVs with no HD cable or antenna? When DVD came out i remember people buying dvd players and hooking them up to the RF adapters. They didn't buy DVD for the increase in PQ they bought it for the convience factor that dvd offered. Smaller form factor and no rewinding. Why was VHS LP mode so popular? It looked like crap, but hey you could get more on a tape.

3.) Yes HD video is bigger, but HDDs are too. 1TB drives are shipping and are relatively cheap. Plus, just like MP3 went mainstream for it's convience, don't think people won't accept HD-lite downloads. HD on demand, xbox live HD downloads and other HD-lite is perfectly fine for most people.

4.) Yes people like to own, but many are moving away from the market. I was just talking to my dad about this the other day (they have a huge pile of purchased DVDs), and he said they quit buying most movies and now rent as they primarily watch a movie only once. HD on-demand or online rental/download is perfect for someone like that.

5.) Problem is that PS3 has no games other than some ports of Xbox titles. Right now many are buying PS3 for BR only, but that will change and next generation BR hardware comes out.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Bad example. People buy downloads for all kinds or reasons, but the compelling reason is . . . [wait for it] . . . that there is a device (iPod, MP3 player, whatever you want to call it) that allows you to port around your entire music collection. This is relevant because people want to port their music around with them. While I'm sure that some (or even many) want to port their videos around with them, based on the necessary form factor restrictions of such a portable device (small) porting around videos is not and will never be the primary or even significant way that people enjoy video (niche stuff like YouTube, perhaps, but not cinema) . . . untill large format holographic projection without a screen is portable, affordable and pervasive. Once you take away the portability argument, the only thing downloading has in its favor is convenience. While that is true for audio (average file size 3-5 MB) it is clearly not (yet) true for HD video (average file size 30-50 GB) due to bandwidth constraints.

When someone watches a movie, that's what they do. It's a different experience. It's also one that stimulates a human's strongest sense: sight. While people may be willing to sacrifice some audio quality while working out, so they don't have to carry 20 CDs, that's not the case with a movie.

....and here is the disconnect!

What if I told you that A LOT of people (car audio, In Car Entertainments/I.C.E) actually play the DVD JUST to listen to the audio and the loud booms in the car? Sounds crazy but thier is a slew of folks that do that.

You counter points are very good, and you may well be right along with MS. I don't raise my points as though they are ironclad, no one really knows but I do think convenience and ownership are 2 big factors. How many every day dvd buyers are going to collect on these Terrabyte drives?



Ownership and convience are huge and I agree that most people are not building HTPCs or stacking up networked storage. Even though it may be a top priority for most on this board, there are many out there that really don't care about PQ. They'd rather have a huge screen than a smaller one that looked great. This is mhy highly compressed downloads are a good mainstream option. Why did SACD or DVD-A not over take CD? In fact it went the opposite way to lossy downloads because of convience.

Also most will not want to buy two copies of movies (one for the HT and onre for the car/portable dvd player/kids room/ ect...) so DVD is fine for them. What really needed to happen was a combo disc (1 sided) with 4 layers (2 DVD and 2 HD or BD) so the consumer could buy one piece of media and play it everywhere. Looks like that won't happen soon. I myself am kind of torn, I don't want to double dip on movies, but I watch as many movies in the bedroom as in the HT.

I think all this talk of there will be a video equivalent of MP3 is way overblown. The two scenarios are completely different.

For example, what do people do typically when listening to an MP3? The answer: Something else. While the sense of sound is used for listening, typically the listener is doing something else such as jogging, working, riding on a plane, etc. The attention is not 100% focused on the MP3.

When someone watches a movie, that's what they do. It's a different experience. It's also one that stimulates a human's strongest sense: sight. While people may be willing to sacrifice some audio quality while working out, so they don't have to carry 20 CDs, that's not the case with a movie.

Also, the packaging is important. MP3 allows you to choose an individual song. How many CDs have people bought where they really only wanted 1 or 2 hits? That's not the case with a DVD or BD. You buy one movie; you watch one movie, typically.

I don't think digital downloads will ever be the main source until optical video quality reaches the limit of human perception (like CD) and then maybe it's a next step from there. See you in 2050.

HD movies can be rented as we speak on Xbox Live Marketplace and several cable companies VOD services. The quality is usually pretty good. If you could buy the movies on download right now, many people would since quite a few have the bandwidth available to do it.

If fact you can watch some hit TV shows on network websites from your computer right now free of charge. Zunes and Ipods currently allowed portable viewing of downloaded and burned movies. People are warming up to the concept.

It won't take quite as long as you think for downloads to be viable.

LOL @ him mentioning the Zune in the same sentence as the IPod.

Yeah, that's hilarious. They're both MP3 players fighting in the exact same market. Wow, that's hilarious! :o

Yeah, that's hilarious. They're both MP3 players fighting in the exact same market. Wow, that's hilarious! :o

My Zune80 is great!

Seems to show MS true intentions about the format war. Keep it going so both will lose and we can offer downloads.So it's o.k. for Sony to offer downloads, but not MS? Seems kind of hypocritical.

Sony to Offer Movie, Music Download Services for PlayStation 3 (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20070219053637.html)

“I think PlayStation 3 needs to stand for gaming and digital entertainment in the living room pushing the envelope of high definition, pushing the envelope of broadband, and of course that includes more than just games. We don’t have the announcements that you're probably looking for today, but it is digital data. We have a hard drive, we have a commerce engine, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out we will have that on the network very shortly,” said Phil Harrison the president of Sony Computer Entertainment Europe, in an interview with 1UP web-site.

...

“We made a very conscious decision in putting a hard drive in every machine and a minimum of 20GB, 60GB and who knows in the future, maybe that will rise – you know, that tends to be a trend. “The ten year plan of allowing people to download all kinds of digital content to their PlayStation 3 – not just games but movies, music, HD, standard definition TV, you name it. And that was a significant investment, but it was absolutely the right thing to do,” said Mr. Harrison.

You kind of sound agnostic about the formats.
No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right.


Oh yeah those little carry arounds define great music listening. Billy G doesn't get it on the video side. Those big screens in the living/family/bed room are not going to be very friendly to crappy download video.

And he is dead wrong about wanting to keep a particular "show". If he were to continue his silly music analogy, he would have to say and here are the home servers needed to store those "shows", just like the massive hard drives now used to archive all that crappy MP3 music.

LOL @ him mentioning the Zune in the same sentence as the IPod.

Yeah, heaven forbid he mention the #2 DAP (according to market share, approx 15%) in the same sentence as the almighty Ipod :rolleyes:....
Have you used one of the new Zunes? Interface-wise, which is what his significant point in the keynote speech was discussing, I think it bests the Ipod. The new ones are also pretty slick looking little devices (nobody will argue the old one was good-looking).

I do because I don't listen to lossy music.;)

Funny, that's the reason I didn't want to switch from LPs to CDs.

Edited to add: I think it's funny because you are talking about loss from a format that I already consider lossy.

Funny, that's the reason I didn't want to switch from LPs to CDs.

Do you actually think that LPs to 44.1/16 PCMs is the same as 44.1/16 PCMs to MP3s?

In the case of latter signals below 22,000 hz are also being thrown away!

Basically what I want from an online service is music in a DRM-free lossless compression format so that I would be essentially buying a digital source in which I could transcode it to any lossy compression format I want (vorbis, muspack, aac) without further degradation in quality.

Our broadband speeds are just not up to par for downloading HD movie content!!! This is such a joke.... Not only that, I'm not going to download an HD movie that's going to take up 5-10% of my hard drive space.....that's just not realistic.....



I know I'm not the majority but now a days my download speeds are fairly decent and I am able to download 720p & 1080p quality video with 5.1 surround sound in under 2-4 hours. Equipped yourself with 1TB external HD and you'll have more then enough room.
My Hard Drive that I boot off of is able to hold roughly 10-15HD quality movies. I am constantly rotating them from and to my externals so it's no problem.

When we watch movies on the XBLM (just like mentioned above) 5 minutes from the start of download and HD content is ready to watch.

Digital downloads are the future. With these ISP's laying all this fiber optic cable higher throughput is just right around the corner. The norm will soon be 15mbps downstream with premium around 30mbps. Bluray will be around but I'm not confident enough to say that it'll have the impact that DVD had.

Yeah, heaven forbid he mention the #2 DAP (according to market share, approx 15%) in the same sentence as the almighty Ipod :rolleyes:....
Have you used one of the new Zunes? Interface-wise, which is what his significant point in the keynote speech was discussing, I think it bests the Ipod. The new ones are also pretty slick looking little devices (nobody will argue the old one was good-looking).

I had a Zune, it was a joke of a device. Microsoft will not touch Apple on a popularity contest and the Zune is really, really aweful.

p.s. - I dont own a IPod either, the Zune turned me off to portal music players.

Yes. CD is still my primary music format. Online stores don't offer lossless compression yet (flac, wavpack,etc) so until they do that I am not even consider buying a single download.

Try beatport.com

I ALWAYS download using .wav

Yep - a lesson to many, never bet against Mr Gates (I remember how hard they laughed at him when he started that "retarded" thing called USB). I'll bet he's laughing at the format that relies on JAVA as ever being anything but a problem child...........plays right into his hands.

Um, Gates didn't start USB, Intel did, but it was Apple's iMacs and iPods that made it hugely popular.

Try beatport.com

I ALWAYS download using .wav

Cool I'll keep that in my bookmarks.

Maybe they should have asked Bill if he believes in downloaded content so much why wasn't Vista's distribution Download only ?

I wouldn't want a download only OS software for the same reason I wouldn't want download only movies. Because when (note not if, when) my windows systems goes blue screen of death I like to have the software on optical disk to reinstall/fix the system. Even if the OS installation is saved on a partition of the HDD, that doesn't help when the hard disk drive is smoked.

Another example is the movies lost on the DVR when it reinstalls itself clearing out the saved programs or has to be returned to the cable company when it goes wonky because apparently overheating is a design feature. :confused::rolleyes:

Digital download is not ready for prime time and wont be for many years. At the moment a dvd quality movie can't be sold online in any decent numbers (1 million, small number really) without crippling the internet completely. As a wise mane once said "The internet is series of tubes" ;) j/k

To make Digital download a real a quantum leap in technology still needs to happen. Music downloads didn't take off until a medium and a way of saving and reusing it became common place. Wav files to MP3. Ipods and MP3 players.

I had a Zune, it was a joke of a device. Microsoft will not touch Apple on a popularity contest and the Zune is really, really aweful.

p.s. - I dont own a IPod either, the Zune turned me off to portal music players.

I have a zune I got in Nov 06. Have you seen the new zunes, or used the new interface. The Zune has gotten a whole lot better, can even use normal podcasts now. The 80GBs are similarly priced, much slimmer, better screen, FM radio, Zune to Zune wireless, and can now do wireless sync. Add on the the Zune Pass, and the ability to play those zune pass music files through the 360 to your stereo. I am sorry but I went from interested (pre release) due to my previous apathy in regards to my previous Ipod, to disappointed (after release) Due to certain features (wireless sync, play limits on transfered files), hiccup issues with zune market place files, but I decided to keep it and see how it developed, and I now love it. This is after going several months at one point where i never even touched it.

Sorry if I sound like a Fanboi, but its just my opinion that Microsoft while it took them a year to get everything they should have had ready at the start, Now has the true "ipod killer" if there was one. The fact that all of these features are completely supported through the updates on Gen1 zunes should be commended.

I have a couple of questions / comments regarding HD downloads.

I work in Telecom so I have an understanding of internet access.

I do not think HD downloads are all that viable nor will be they for quite some time.

Here's why:

Residential internet access: what if the household needs their internet access for more then downloading movies in HD? Meaning they also get their local home phone &/or cable TV VIA their ISP or cable provider using the same connection. And they need to make a call or view other content or use for some work related issues etc.....all while this large, compressed file is hogging up all of their bandwidth?

If they are on cable modem & have no guaranteed CIR in an area with a lot of users it could take DAYS for a movie to download as they are on a shared loop.

And with DSL it is a compressed download across a compressed line...what will that do to the quality of the download? Maybe add some noise, a nasty hiss etc....signal degradation on a VERY long twice compressed download without MPLS to put it all back together the way it was taken apart? You could get voice packets & other data packets mixed into your HD download causing it to be corrupted & unplayable. And don't even make or receive a phone call if your DSL line is also your home phone number......the same goes for any Vonage users.....

Is their even Residential [dedicated or switched] internet access with MPLS?

NO, there are ZERO residential ISPs offering MPLS enabled internet access over DSL or Cable modem. I won't even mention dialup because it is not worth factoring into the equation....unless you NEVER use you phone for anything other than downloading at 56kbps..........literally taking days for a single movie to download.

So will anyone that wants to download in HD MUST be ordering T1s of DIA incl. MPLS for around $700.00 MRC per 1.54 MBPS / MPLS? They would also need a T1 router at that point as well.

Also, how much storage will the average American family have? Where will these downloads be stored? I mean it looks like around $200 per external hard drive every 15 - 20 movies on top of the cost of the movies. How many external hard drives will a family be willing to buy & network? If people had issues with the cost of a BD or HD DVD player being above $200 how is this the answer?

And the same goes for streaming, you really couldn't do much else other then watching the movie because it would eat up all you available bandwidth. That is if you had the bandwidth to stream in HD to begin with.

I am NOT referring to SD downloads, I am only talking about HD.

I know that I read using Xbox live some movies took hours to download, how will our "microwave popcorn" generation [that has no patience] deal with watching movies download as if they were on dial up????

I could be wrong, just my 2 cents.

If anyone can correct me I would appreciate it as long as it is factual. That way I would have a better understanding of digital downloads & how viable they truly are for consumers.

Well, I'm totally behind HDi, and downloads, but if it were me, I'd go to "Solid State" movies, or movies that have no moving parts to worry about, and will have better quality than any optical disc. I can see that happening. Seeing that the price of flash memory cards are on a downward spiral. Pretty soon those devices will be so cheap, that Hollywood may probably do copy-protected flash cards, and start putting movies on those that you can stick in a digital camera, a computer, some television devices that use memory card slots, etc... This could be the future of physical media in the movie world. Then again, I'm just dreaming, pinch me. :D

I agree with the above posters in that HD downloads simply won't be a viable medium for the masses for quite some time.

Call me old fashioned at my ripe old age of 24, but I would still greatly prefer my content on disc even if HD downloads were viable enough to provide an experience akin to what we get with Blu-ray. As for music, I still buy many CDs and have yet to purchase a single song via download.

Well, I'm totally behind HDi, and downloads, but if it were me, I'd go to "Solid State" movies, or movies that have no moving parts to worry about, and will have better quality than any optical disc. I can see that happening. Seeing that the price of flash memory cards are on a downward spiral. Pretty soon those devices will be so cheap, that Hollywood may probably do copy-protected flash cards, and start putting movies on those that you can stick in a digital camera, a computer, some television devices that use memory card slots, etc... This could be the future of physical media in the movie world. Then again, I'm just dreaming, pinch me. :D

Bro, do you know how much a 100GB solid state drive costs? Let alone 500GB or 1TB solid state drives [that do not even exist as of yet]? The consumer will need TBs of external storage to house a "movie collection" not GBs.

Well, I'm totally behind HDi, and downloads, but if it were me, I'd go to "Solid State" movies, or movies that have no moving parts to worry about, and will have better quality than any optical disc. I can see that happening. Seeing that the price of flash memory cards are on a downward spiral. Pretty soon those devices will be so cheap, that Hollywood may probably do copy-protected flash cards, and start putting movies on those that you can stick in a digital camera, a computer, some television devices that use memory card slots, etc... This could be the future of physical media in the movie world. Then again, I'm just dreaming, pinch me. :D


no need for pinching.

The HDDVD players have a USB 2.0 port on them as well as the PS3.

And just like you said, flash memory will probably coming down the pipes sooner than later. USB 2 = 480 Mbit/s.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Less than 10% of music purchases are digital downloads, so I'd say "yes, they do."

Bro, do you know how much a 100GB solid state drive costs? Let alone 500GB or 1TB solid state drives [that do not even exist as of yet]? The consumer will need TBs of external storage to house a "movie collection" not GBs.



psst

if they can cram a movie onto a 50 GB bluray. Than a 50 GB flash drive is what they need. And the prices of flash memory ARE plummeting!

To add to TheDaddy's comments... Today's movie downlads are simply a new form of rental. You watch them, then they delete themselves within 24 hours. Now, if we could save these movies to disc, then I can see downloads taking off.

The idea of paying (or renting) eveytime I want to watch my favorite movie is ridiculous. Not to mention waiting for it to download or having to deal with a bottlenecked internet connection while streaming. Ugh!

Give me hard media with a single payment so I can store it on a shelf and watch it whenever I please without any hassels.

Just as I thought. Ms doesn't give a crap about HD DVD. :(

And sure digital downloads are the future, but not with the current pathetic broadband connections in the u.s. I get an average of 1.5mbs. How long would it take to download a 1080p movie even if it was available?

I'm with you I dont think they do either.I think MS and Sony couldnt work something out where they both can come out green so Gates went the other way.I have read this on many articles Gates main baby is digital media

There's another important difference between music CDs and movie DVDs that many aren't discussing: You buy a music CD, you're paying for 10+ songs, when maybe you don't want all of them. This gives online sales a huge advantage; you don't have to buy the handful of crappy songs you don't like.

With DVDs, of course, you either want the movie or you don't. Personally, I like owning movie discs, though I have used downloadable rentals (ppv, xbox, web based), and probably will still use them occasionally.

For the reasons stated above, I prefer downloading music, and plan to check out Amazon's service soon.

The current broadband setup in the United Kingdom isn't capable of high definition movie downloads if they are between 10 and 20 gigs in size.....I am with a very good provider with speeds of around 5mbp/s but i am restricted to 20gigs bandwidth a month.....I don't think one movie a month would satisfy me.

All providers in the United Kingdom and i daresay in The States have usage limits even those providers which don't admit it and put fair usage in their terms and conditions....It just won't happen anytime soon in large quantity.....perhaps downloads will happen fifteen years from now when the infrastructure catches up but not in the next five years.

I would prefer physical media i can hold and collect to downloadable media there's just something more attractive about artwork and a proper case ( and no i don't wanna design my own )

Speed isn't the problem but bandwidth restrictions are and if everyone who now buys DVD's suddenly started downloading their films the networks just couldn't cope and you would all find severe bandwidth restrictions placed on you by your internet providers.

no need for pinching.

The HDDVD players have a USB 2.0 port on them as well as the PS3.

And just like you said, flash memory will probably coming down the pipes sooner than later. USB 2 = 480 Mbit/s.

Whew, glad somebody agreees with me that solid state is the future of all media.

The keyword is immersive. Audio that is an afterthought can be done with mp3. Truly immersive audio where you shut everything else out and live within a particular presentation, people sit in a room and run CDs.

Video that is not immersive is not that compelling, with rare exceptions like during hour long commutes where you don't drive (can't do video if you drive!), portable video is just not that compelling.

When we sit down to watch a movie, that's a 2 hour long commitment and that has to be "immersive" to enjoy it properly. You don't watch a 2 hour movie 24 separate occasions by breaking them to 5 minute shorts each like you can just listen to one song. The experience just isn't that enjoyable.

The current broadband setup in the United Kingdom isn't capable of high definition movie downloads if they are between 10 and 20 gigs in size.....I am with a very good provider with speeds of around 5mbp/s but i am restricted to 20gigs bandwidth a month.....I don't think one movie a month would satisfy me.

All providers in the United Kingdom and i daresay in The States have usage limits even those providers which don't admit it and put fair usage in their terms and conditions....It just won't happen anytime soon in large quantity.....perhaps downloads will happen fifteen years from now when the infrastructure catches up but not in the next five years.

I would prefer physical media i can hold and collect to downloadable media there's just something more attractive about artwork and a proper case ( and no i don't wanna design my own )

Speed isn't the problem but bandwidth restrictions are and if everyone who now buys DVD's suddenly started downloading their films the networks just couldn't cope and you would all find severe bandwidth restrictions placed on you by your internet providers.

You are probably right. They have to figure out who should pay for transferring all this data across the Internet. 29.95/month from the consumer isn't going to cover it. The studios probably don't want to pay the providers for it, and the providers have nothing to gain by allowing it to happen for free. My guess is that in the end, the Studios will be forced to tack on at least $1 per rental/download, which goes to the bandwidth providers (but how that is then distributed fairly is beyond me..)

I have a couple of questions / comments regarding HD downloads.

I work in Telecom so I have an understanding of internet access.

I do not think HD downloads are all that viable nor will be they for quite some time.

Here's why:

Residential internet access: what if the household needs their internet access for more then downloading movies in HD? Meaning they also get their local home phone &/or cable TV VIA their ISP or cable provider using the same connection. And they need to make a call or view other content or use for some work related issues etc.....all while this large, compressed file is hogging up all of their bandwidth?

If they are on cable modem & have no guaranteed CIR in an area with a lot of users it could take DAYS for a movie to download as they are on a shared loop.

And with DSL it is a compressed download across a compressed line...what will that do to the quality of the download? Maybe add some noise, a nasty hiss etc....signal degradation on a VERY long twice compressed download without MPLS to put it all back together the way it was taken apart? You could get voice packets & other data packets mixed into your HD download causing it to be corrupted & unplayable. And don't even make or receive a phone call if your DSL line is also your home phone number......the same goes for any Vonage users.....

Is their even Residential [dedicated or switched] internet access with MPLS?

NO, there are ZERO residential ISPs offering MPLS enabled internet access over DSL or Cable modem. I won't even mention dialup because it is not worth factoring into the equation....unless you NEVER use you phone for anything other than downloading at 56kbps..........literally taking days for a single movie to download.

So will anyone that wants to download in HD MUST be ordering T1s of DIA incl. MPLS for around $700.00 MRC per 1.54 MBPS / MPLS? They would also need a T1 router at that point as well.

Also, how much storage will the average American family have? Where will these downloads be stored? I mean it looks like around $200 per external hard drive every 15 - 20 movies on top of the cost of the movies. How many external hard drives will a family be willing to buy & network? If people had issues with the cost of a BD or HD DVD player being above $200 how is this the answer?

And the same goes for streaming, you really couldn't do much else other then watching the movie because it would eat up all you available bandwidth. That is if you had the bandwidth to stream in HD to begin with.

I am NOT referring to SD downloads, I am only talking about HD.

I know that I read using Xbox live some movies took hours to download, how will our "microwave popcorn" generation [that has no patience] deal with watching movies download as if they were on dial up????

I could be wrong, just my 2 cents.

If anyone can correct me I would appreciate it as long as it is factual. That way I would have a better understanding of digital downloads & how viable they truly are for consumers.

I work for one of the largest cable companies in the US, and given the positive reaction to On Demand movies, I can assure you that downloads are a lot closer to viability than you think.

MSOs are already implementing several strategies to increase bandwidth, for HD and On Demand as well as regular internet use.

Hard drive storage capacities are going up and prices are coming down on a regular almost predictable basis. Within the next year I don't think it'll be hard to find a high end PC carrying a 1 TB hard drive.

Downloads are coming and everyone involved in video knows it. The only question is how soon it'll happen.

IMO we're just a settop box away from being able to purchase On Demand movies.

We'll see.

Poor Bill, forgetting that even in music sales, physical media is still king, with 90% of the music market and almost 100% of the video market.

I bet Bill wishes his Zune and XBOX were migrating people in mass towards digital video downloads, but the reality is that people buy physical media in significantly higher numbers.

Personally, I will NEVER purchase a video download when I can buy the physical media version for roughly the same price.

Here is the relevant part:

Sounds like MS is moving away from HDDVD as quickly as possible, not that I blame them.

As popular as iTunes is getting, as popular as Xbox Live is getting, as popular as Vongo and CinemaNow, and MovieLink are getting, this is probably what Bill Gates was looking at. Even tho Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have been in a looooong feud with each other, they both probably can agree with downloads being the wave of the future. With Bill Gates backing HD-DVD, and Steve Jobs backing Blu-ray, those are ways to make computer downloads and CE-device downloads be the way to go. There's a little stuff that can put two and two together with a move like that. You wait and see...

I haven't heard any cracks from Steve Jobs on this issue, but I'm quite sure that would be another topic to cover in this thread later on down the pike.

To say nothing about some areas of country still on dialup. Of course I could have a dish installed and then pay 69.00 a month to get online. Of course this is after my new Toshiba TV/A-35 player charges. etc etc etc. I did call Toshiba support this morning and lady said that they will continue making HD-players and other companies (she didn't say who) will pick up Warner's slack in the HDs. I was just curious about what kind of answer I would get, hope the lady is still working next month. Why would anybody be surprised about Billy Gates interview. I'm the stupid s**t, I figured Microsoft was behind HD and it would be at very least a longer battle or a win. Stupid, Stupid, Stupid!!!!!!!!!!! As far as his charitable work, It's a tax write off. (not sure of tax laws when given to other countries though)

The best thing in the future is to not believe a word from MS or Toshiba.

One sentence that has me scratching me head and wondering why nobody pounced on it.

"The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way."

Did Bill just leak something there? Or am I taking it out of context?

It seems that Gates wants to save face after backing the losing format. A format backed by MS' biggest rivals (Sony, Apple) won and that's not a good thing for MS.

It's obvious that MS didn't really help HDDVD that much but still it won't be a good thing for them if blu-ray manages to become the next DVD.

I think MS would rather use bluray since no company wants to be remotely associated with HDDVD at the moment.

I don't really see that scenario prolong the war... it would have given HD DVD every major (except Disney and Sony), plus their tag-alongs. If that had happened, Disney wouldn't have been far behind. And HD DVD was building serious momentum even before, evidenced by Sony's CEO's "stalemate" admission. Seems to me that the format war would most definitely have ended, and most definitely in HD DVD's favor.

Hmmm... MS = Cat, Sony = Mouse....?

"If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

One sentence that has me scratching me head and wondering why nobody pounced on it.

"The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way."

Did Bill just leak something there? Or am I taking it out of context?

Huh?

You lost me.

Paramount went HDDVD and the other one (Warner) went the other way (Bluray).

What is it that you are reading that I am not seeing?

The PS3 has two games that any hardcore gamers care about and those are MGS4 and the Final Fantasy series. It's questionable whether either those will make an impact large since they don't historically sell as well as some multiplatform games like EA sports titles and the like.

Unless the PS3 some how finds some way to outsell the Wii and the 360 in hardware sales monthly over the next year, don't expect the third party development focus on those two consoles to change or the PS3 to move out of third place.

Nintendo has always had brand name following and was immensely strong internationally before Sony stepped on the scene two generations ago and relegated them to almost irrelevance due to Nintendo's then reluctance to change their delivery model (cartridge/proprietary GB disc vs. CD/DVD).

This is without mentioning the other major CEs Nintendo defeated prior to that, ie. Philips (CD-I), NEC (Turbo Grafix 16), Matsushita/Panasonic (3DO).

Brand name only gets you so far in the gaming industry.


With the minor nuisance out of the way (HDDVD) Sony will start concentrating on games again. PS3 looks ready for a resurgence.

HD movies can be rented as we speak on Xbox Live Marketplace and several cable companies VOD services. The quality is usually pretty good. If you could buy the movies on download right now, many people would since quite a few have the bandwidth available to do it.

If fact you can watch some hit TV shows on network websites from your computer right now free of charge. Zunes and Ipods currently allowed portable viewing of downloaded and burned movies. People are warming up to the concept.

It won't take quite as long as you think for downloads to be viable.

People want lossless audio and pristine video this day and age. Isn't that why BluRay won? Its all about bitrates and capacity.

With the minor nuisance out of the way (HDDVD) Sony will start concentrating on games again. PS3 looks ready for a resurgence.

Sony?

Square Enix, EA sports. Sony has nothing to do with the "games" aspect of the PS3 save a few that Sony makes (which I know of none of the top of my head, perhaps Grand Tourismo 5)

which btw I hope hope that Kingom Hearts III makes it out some time soon!!

Huh?

You lost me.

Paramount went HDDVD and the other one (Warner) went the other way (Bluray).

What is it that you are reading that I am not seeing?

Yeah, I could read it that way too. It almost sounded like he was eluding to Paramount maybe changing strategy again... Either way it was probably bad word choice.

Bah, even Blu-ray may bite the dust sooner or later. If it were me, as I said in other threads just now, something as simple as making a video format in high-def that can fit on a 2 - 4GB SD card, and be copy protected, may be the future of HDM. Maybe Bill Gates may probably re-promote the WMV HD format, and make that format so compact for flash memory cards, that we may see those becoming the new standard in the next few years.

I had a Zune, it was a joke of a device. Microsoft will not touch Apple on a popularity contest and the Zune is really, really aweful.

p.s. - I dont own a IPod either, the Zune turned me off to portal music players.

Microsoft is always a day late and a dollar short. They lost to google, iPod, RIM. Their days of innovation are long gone. No wonder their stock is stuck at mid $30s while true innovators are at $200.

Sony?

Square Enix, EA sports. Sony has nothing to do with the "games" aspect of the PS3 save a few that Sony makes (which I know of none of the top of my head, perhaps Grand Tourismo 5)

which btw I hope hope that Kingom Hearts III makes it out some time soon!!

Gran Turismo, Gods of War, Socom, Siphon Filter, Killzone. Sony has lots of great 1st party games. KH3 will be awesome too.

Gran Turismo, Gods of War, Socom, Siphon Filter, Killzone. Sony has lots of great 1st party games. KH3 will be awesome too.

well here is the thing and why I don't know.

God Of War I and II were PS2 which are some of the best games (imo) for it. GT up to 4 was also PS2. From the demo stuff i played for GT5. It looked pretty but certainly did not up the ante.

KHIII is squarenix but no "official" word of it. Just the KH:386/2 and KH:Birth By Sleep. :(

Microsoft is always a day late and a dollar short. They lost to google, iPod, RIM. Their days of innovation are long gone. No wonder their stock is stuck at mid $30s while true innovators are at $200.

you are aware that unlike the innovators that you talk about. MS has split thier stocks 9 times? Right??? If they hadn't, thier stock today as of this post would be worth $987 dollars per common stock.

MS and Bill Gates have always been about this great future of interactivity, non-physical media etc., etc. I suggest that is much further off than is being conveyed in his talk. There are many hurdles to implenting the idea of non-physical media which don't involve several compromises with respect to ownership, access, quality and use. All which can be dealt with through the proven method of access - a player and physcial media. You can own it, rent it, resell it and watch it at your leasure. Downloads of 1080p movies which can meet that criteria are quite a ways away and probably not in Bill Gates lifetime.

HD DVD was merely a platform for HDi and VC-1 for MS. When it goes they will seek other platforms.

i dont mind dd as long as ms isnt the one controlling it

I really don't foresee movie downloads becoming as popular as music. Music benefits greatly from portability, and portable music formats enjoyed widespread use even before downloads, via Walkmans/Discmans, etc. MP3 players were a logical next step.

Portable movie players are nowhere near as popular. Sure, there's the odd portable DVD player here and there, but you don't see thousands of kids on college campuses hauling them around. The average person has no need to have their movies portable, and when they do, its just to grab a DVD and take it to a friends house. Downloaded movies are largely an inconvenience, as doing anything other than watching them on the host machine is nigh-impossible to the average user.

If movie-watchers had any interest in on-demand movies to watch once and pay $5 for, rather than pay $20 for a permanent version, then pay-per-view movies which have been around for years would be much more popular. But they aren't really used by anyone except bored Hotel patrons.

So I'm guessing that people's desire for a hard-copy of their movies isn't changing anytime soon, and downloads will be doomed to the demographic of specialty users who know how to utilize them, for years to come. With HD-DVD approaching extinction, I can't fathom seeing anything other than BRD being the successor to DVD. Sorry Bill.

psst

if they can cram a movie onto a 50 GB bluray. Than a 50 GB flash drive is what they need. And the prices of flash memory ARE plummeting!

but the consumer needs these flash drives in 500GB versions to store every 10 movies....see what I am getting at? this would be far more expensive then just buying BDs or DVDs to maintain a collection as a collector

I work for one of the largest cable companies in the US, and given the positive reaction to On Demand movies, I can assure you that downloads are a lot closer to viability than you think.

MSOs are already implementing several strategies to increase bandwidth, for HD and On Demand as well as regular internet use.

Hard drive storage capacities are going up and prices are coming down on a regular almost predictable basis. Within the next year I don't think it'll be hard to find a high end PC carrying a 1 TB hard drive.

Downloads are coming and everyone involved in video knows it. The only question is how soon it'll happen.

IMO we're just a settop box away from being able to purchase On Demand movies.

We'll see.

PCs with 1 TB HDDs or set top boxes with 1 TB HDDs are going to be expensive and not a mass market product for quite some time

solid state 100gb drives are like $700 currently

I've seen 2GB SD cards for like $10 - $15, if you look long and hard. Now if only they'd make a movie that can still be HD, yet fit on one of those, then we may be looking at something that may probably outdo an optical disc-based movie. I'm talking like if there can be like 1GB > 1 Hour. That would mean... Let's see 1,024 / 60 = 17 MB/min. So for a 2 hour movie to fit on one of those, it would require that a 1080p PQ/7.1 DTS or Dolby format be shrunk down somehow, yet still maintain that quality. There's gonna be plenty of thought on the software end of things, but I think it can be done.

So if there's any way of getting pristine quality picture and sound to fit into a 16 - 17 MB per minute ratio, then we may be on our way.

People who say there isnt the infrastructure need to realize that many cable operators have been trying to keep up with the telco's. Telco's have been going crazy planting fiber wherever they can so they can deliver phone, internet and tv to the home. This means in the nexg 5 years we should see a drastic increase in bandwidth to the home. Remember back when MP3s came out and people were using 56k modems and if lucky enough 640kbps DSL?

10 years later most people using highspped in the US have 20x the bandwidth of a 56kbps modem. And downloading MP3s takes seconds instead of hours.

Anyways the rumors I have heard from people in the industry are we can expect to see upwards of 90Mbps to the home within a few years. The infrastructures are planted or close to being done. All it takes is turning them on in many areas. FIOS is a prime example of what we should expect to see as consumers. A 50Mbps line to the home makes a 22GB download feasible. Hell should be able to stream the thing and watch it live while downloading it.

I dont expect DD to replace physical media. But it should become a driving force in the coming years.

For me personally VOD via standard cable or satellite in HD is best. But they must have a big selection, same quality video/sound and a good price point. How often do you watch the same movie again? I don't do this very often and if I could just select it from a menu on my TV pay $1-$2 to watch, why would I bother with keeping and storing any physical media, let the provider do that. Right now though no provider really meets any of my three criteria.

For everyone ripping on Gates and Microsoft supposedly prolonging this format war, did you forget that Time/Warner controls a very high percentage of US Cable/Internet service?

From a logistical standpoint, they stand to benefit far more than Microsoft from HD on-demand services.

I do. I've had 2 computers crash on me in the last 3 years. Music is too important to me to risk being on a HD only. Much of my collection is rare and/or OOP, so the odds of finding for downloading is slim, much less lossless. Lossy music sounds like crap on my music only system. Hell, I still listen to my LPs, many of which never made it to CD.
J

wtf?!?

you say you don't listen to lossy because it sounds like crap, but then you listen to lps, which sound like crap...

lol

For everyone ripping on Gates and Microsoft supposedly prolonging this format war, did you forget that Time/Warner controls a very high percentage of US Cable/Internet service?

From a logistical standpoint, they stand to benefit far more than Microsoft from HD on-demand services.

maybe since they actually know a thing or two they know it's far away from being a viable alternative? ms is just pulling notes from a hat with different technologies written on them so they can be first and get monopoly. thankfully they've only been successful once.

For example, Music Giants has been selling WMA lossless music downloads for the past two years.


I still buy CD, SACD, and DVD-A. I don't see that I'm gaining anything with MusicGiants.

However, I do believe that more people purchase music than movies. We can listen to a song or piece of music we love hundreds of times. How many times can you watch the same movie? That's why rentals have continued to grow IMO. Many people realized that ownership of visual media is just not that necessary or appealing.

Bah, even Blu-ray may bite the dust sooner or later. If it were me, as I said in other threads just now, something as simple as making a video format in high-def that can fit on a 2 - 4GB SD card, and be copy protected, may be the future of HDM. Maybe Bill Gates may probably re-promote the WMV HD format, and make that format so compact for flash memory cards, that we may see those becoming the new standard in the next few years.

I wish that day would come as well,flash memory is much better than optical media:no moving parts,no lasers,no scratches and it's shock-proof.
As for Gates:he's been pushing for streaming media for years so he couldn't care less who wins.

Just how far away are we from having 32 GB micro SD HC cards that can be loaded up at a movie kiosk? How about a little 3" circular hearing aid style battery holder that holds 8 microSD's instead. Stick it in the kiosk, pay you money with a ATM card swipe, and walk away with up to eight 2 1/2 hour HD movies. 6 GB micro SD HC cards are $70 now (http://www.amazon.com/MicroSDHC-Adapter-Micromate-Reader-Writer/dp/B000UZOSM6).

Edit: Just found 8 GB microSD HC for $109 (http://www.flash-memory-store.com/micro-secure-digital.html).

does anyone buy CDs anymore?

I do. Downloads are fine for casual listening, or for background noise. But when I'm relaxing and listening to music at home, I always choose a CD or other packaged media over downloads.

you are aware that unlike the innovators that you talk about. MS has split thier stocks 9 times? Right??? If they hadn't, thier stock today as of this post would be worth $987 dollars per common stock.

Track their stock over the last few years versus Google, Apple and RiM and see how poorly it has performed without splits. As a shareholder I could have made a killing in the above three stocks, way more than MS has provided.

I think there has been some confusion on the amount of space a 1080p download will take.

There have been numerous HD DVD's that had an average bit rate of around 12 Mbps (lower, Amir?). Coupled with the fact that downloads can compress better than optical, due to the limitations from the optical standards, and you remove everything but the video and the audio you are interested in, one can see how a typical 1.5 hour 1080p video, with competitive bit rates to HD DVD and DD+ sound at 1.5 Mbps, could easily fit into 6 - 10 GB's. I think these 20 - 50 GB estimates are way out of line.

My only question is, who's going get it delivered first! :D

Some of you guys need to read this post to get a good idea why it doesn't make much sense for MS to be writing blank checks for HD DVD:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=12717175&postcount=3600

I was going to make a thread about "Microsoft and HD DVD" basically discussing what Amir stated but he saved me the trouble.

A lot of us get too emotionally caught up in war and forget that all said and done, it's a business which is regulated by ROI, budgets, spin off's and such. Dumping money just because you have it, isn't always the best of ideas.

Microsoft is always a day late and a dollar short. They lost to google, iPod, RIM. Their days of innovation are long gone. No wonder their stock is stuck at mid $30s while true innovators are at $200.
You do understand the concept of splits, right? Know how they work? Google keeps the individual price up by avoiding them - to no real end other than to quote a share price.

Check M$ cash reserves & then get back to me on who's "better".

but the consumer needs these flash drives in 500GB versions to store every 10 movies....see what I am getting at? this would be far more expensive then just buying BDs or DVDs to maintain a collection as a collector

WHY?

If the movie is on the 1 flash drive like DVD and HDDVD/Bluray. Why would they (the studios) want to fit TEN movies on one flash drive (save for TV series)????

I think there has been some confusion on the amount of space a 1080p download will take.

There have been numerous HD DVD's that had an average bit rate of around 12 Mbps (lower, Amir?). Coupled with the fact that downloads can compress better than optical, due to the limitations from the optical standards, and you remove everything but the video and the audio you are interested in, one can see how a typical 1.5 hour 1080p video, with competitive bit rates to HD DVD and DD+ sound at 1.5 Mbps, could easily fit into 6 - 10 GB's. I think these 20 - 50 GB estimates are way out of line.

My only question is, who's going get it delivered first! :D

Any "compression" you get from downloading instead of it being on an optical format is hardly worth mentioning. You get nearly all the compression from using a much lower bitrate i.e. 12 Mbps instead of 20.

20-50 Gib estimates are based on the assumption of using 20+ Mbps.

That does not make sense. First off, are you saying that a BD50 cannot hold an everage length film with more than one audio track and/or features? Second, studios have already proven they can get high quality transfers with much lower bandwidth.

EDIT: Even insisting on bandwidth wasting 20Mbps everage for an average length movie, is still only around 13GB

That does not make sense. First off, are you saying that a BD50 cannot hold an everage length film with more than one audio track and/or features? Second, studios have already proven they can get high quality transfers with much lower bandwidth.

The 50 gig estimate is probably for much longer films like LOTR EE. As I've already mentioned in this thread. For 2 hour films the formula is Mbps x 0.9

Any "compression" you get from downloading instead of it being on an optical format is hardly worth mentioning.Not true. It is the GOP formatting choices and the fact that with electronic storage disc read head physical seeking is not a factor. Check out Ben Waggoner's posts about what XBOX Live does versus optical formats for encoding freedom.

.

Not true. It is the GOP formatting choices and the fact that with electronic storage disc read head physical seeking is not a factor. Check out Ben Waggoner's posts about what XBOX Live does versus optical formats for encoding freedom.

.

Anything within 10% savings is not worth mentioning.

wtf?!?

you say you don't listen to lossy because it sounds like crap, but then you listen to lps, which sound like crap...

lol

Uuugghhhhh.

Amir said that MS declined to be part of (or was not involved in) the negoationations with Warner and Fox. If they had been, I am sure Fox would have not dropped out and Warner would have gone the HD DVD way. That would have been the best way to prolong the war.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

There's an important difference between audio and video. Especially HD video. On the audio side of things, I take my music with me to lots of places. I keep some stuff on my phone, as much as I can on my iPod, bits and pieces here and there on my laptop, etc... Carrying around 800 CDs is impossible. But I can carry around the music FROM those 800 CDs on my iPod. That's the killer reason for MP3.

Now, on the video side of things, when I want to watch HD video, I'm going to be in one place - my living room. I really don't care about the portability of HD video, since I'll never be taking it anywhere en masse. A disc or two over to a friend's house? Sure. But there won't likely be a time when I need more than a couple of movies with me - and rarely then will it be necessary that it's in HD. If I'm watching video on my laptop on a plane, the screen is so small that it doesn't really matter to me that it's in HD. But in each situation, it's actually MORE convenient to take a few discs with me than to maintain some Internet connection to my home network in order to access my video files.

On top of that, much like books (and for me, CDs), there will ALWAYS be some movies that I want to own physically. I want to have them on a shelf in my entertainment center so that I can grab them at a moment's notice and, truth be told, as a point of pride. When Bill Gates says that "no one wants physical media," he isn't speaking for me. Video and audio are different markets. The only place that I see DLC taking a big chunk of video is in rentals. And that isn't even all that ideal at the moment. Bandwidth has to get a LOT faster and significantly more prevalent in the US before this will be a reality on a large scale. Currently, the US has a broadband penetration of roughly 80% among ACTIVE Internet users. Which sounds great, but it puts the US 25th among all nations. Additionally, the average bandwidth in the US falls shy of 2 Mb/s. That has to get significantly higher to support a vast rollout of HD video.

Like others have said, video isn't the same as audio.. Riding the metro to work, are people going to be watching movies constantly on their ipod like they listen to music? Not a chance. People have to see where they're going.. Now, do I think digital downloads will be more popular? Sure.. But, no where close to physical disc sales for a while (like maybe a decade).

I'm a very technical person, and we have leaps and bounds to go before digital downloads become mainstream. Anyone who's dealt with htpc's understands the issues. MORE DRM, likely some new proprietary technology similar to itunes crap. No thanks. Then we have the question of physical storage size. Video files are considerably larger, and another thing is tv sizes are getting larger, so people will likely become more aware of poor transfers/worse PQ.

Again, digital downloaded movies are a neat idea, but they're a ways off. Perhaps that might be the next big thing AFTER blu ray, but it won't be replacing blu ray or dvd anytime soon (especially considering a trained monkey can rip a dvd movie and transfer it drm free to any device they want).

0.9 is close for a 2 hour movie. Your's comes up with just over 12GB at 12Mbps avg. video and 1.5Mbps for DD+.

Google calculator says it is just under 12GB: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=13.5+Mbps+X+2+hours

So even a typical 3 hour epic could easily live well under 20GB.

taken from another post in this thread:

Bii Gates:
"No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right."

Highlighted sentence in red.

People marketing 101 and he is a smart man throwing in a bit of persuasion. He is telling you you don't want discs, but you do want downloads.


Read between his lines and Amir's as well. They have to tread lightly and say what is best in the their interest which is the company's interest.

It seems to me that they have lost intrest in HDM, and are focusing on HD downloads...which I think is the right thing to do..does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Yes. In fact, more people buy CD's than download digitally.

You do understand the concept of splits, right? Know how they work? Google keeps the individual price up by avoiding them - to no real end other than to quote a share price.

Check M$ cash reserves & then get back to me on who's "better".

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suite.. He said over the last several years.. It's been 5 yrs since msft's last stock split.. and has been riding 20's/30's for a while. Yes, they have alot of cash, but if you as an investor never see it, who cares?! lol. If they wanted to give back to the investor they'd raise their dividend, but it's a piddly ~1%, despite all the cash they horde. Msft is clearly stuck in neutral (I can't really blame them, they're a big company that has gone from a growth to value stock), and regarding innovation, they've obviously been struggling. Google will eventually plateau as well, but as an investment they've obviously not been the best choice recently.. Anyone can see that..

Uuugghhhhh.

For real.

"Vinyl sounds like crap".

Yes, because I hate hearing the closest thing to the original analog sound source. Just HATE it.

Damn kids and their music.

For real.

"Vinyl sounds like crap".

Yes, because I hate hearing the closest thing to the original analog sound source. Just HATE it.

Damn kids and their music.



ok it is time for me to exit stage left...

<-- Out of the LP V CD debate!!!

For real.

"Vinyl sounds like crap".

Yes, because I hate hearing the closest thing to the original analog sound source. Just HATE it.

Damn kids and their music.

Sane people goes with CDs on mid-range digital equipment. :p

There were days when we all thought that optical media was gonna be going bye-bye to digital downloads/solid state, and Bill Gates wanted to make that clear. Things may be just better for everyone that way.

They have been predicting the death of the CD since the the iPod was introduced into the market, and it hasn't happened yet.

Gates is wrong, Physical media will never die. People are not big fans of DRM, and downloadable content not only offers LESS (no extras, etc). They also introduce loads of DRM into the mix.

Anyways the rumors I have heard from people in the industry are we can expect to see upwards of 90Mbps to the home within a few years. The infrastructures are planted or close to being done. All it takes is turning them on in many areas. FIOS is a prime example of what we should expect to see as consumers. A 50Mbps line to the home makes a 22GB download feasible.

If everyone is downloading then traffic is shaped by the provider and those 50Mbps lines end up delivering 500kbps.....Bandwidth costs money and the infrastructure is twenty years away from providing this if not more.

Take Japan as an example...it has 100Mbp/s line capable speeds but in reality people end up with 3 or 4Mbp/s or even less and the complaints flood in from customers asking why their high speed lines don't deliver the promised speeds.....The more people use the service at the same time as other users means the actual speed drops as you are sharing with others that line you pay for.

Bandwidth costs money and i understand popular providers like ComCast have a 100gig cap a month....Here in the UK i am with Zen internet and on a 20gig cap a month.

Don't believe the hype....digital downloads for films may take off eventually but it won't happen any day soon or even any year soon.

I prefer to own a physical version of the film with some nice artwork.......Downloads would also take up huge amounts of storage space.....Costs are way too high at the moment for the internet bandwidth and the equipment to store the downloads on.....it's not happening no matter what Bill Gates says....niche small market perhaps but twenty years before it becomes an affordable mass market proposition ( quality proposition )

For real.

"Vinyl sounds like crap".

Yes, because I hate hearing the closest thing to the original analog sound source. Just HATE it.

Damn kids and their music.
Clearly you are not a musician or producer who ever had to suffer the HUGE quality drop between what you heard in the recording studio and what was delivered in te "grooves" of the vinyl LP.

I've been there - and I would never subject my music to that distortion again.

"closest thing to the analog sound source" - right, as if YOU knew what that was.

Love vinyl all you want - but please, don't claim it is TRUER.

(I remember how hard they laughed at him when he started that "retarded" thing called USB)
interesting . . . . given that USB was created by Intel, not Microsoft.

Just some crazy thoughts here,...what about scalable downloads. You want to download load a TV show or movie for viewing on your 3" screen portable player, select the appropriately encoded version of a title and over it zips. ready to load to you player and/or burn for backup. You want standard definition quality for your 32" display unit, select that, and in a few minutes or so, there you are. Ready to burn and view in your living room. You actually know what HD is, and have an internet connection and larger screen sytem that will benefit, you select that, expecting to wait a bit. Maybe you plan ahead and download overnight. Then, it's ready to burn to high capacity media, and play in your huge screen home theater. The host site will direct you to select your compression rate by selecting the size of your display. It all costs the same, and you can download the title multiple times, in different sizes. This will offer you maximum playback flexibility and save you the hassle of converting a purchased DVD to play on your iPod or Zune. We continue to see a blurring of the lines between computers and home entertainment systems. We continue to see more and cheaper high capacity blank media and burners. Wireless transmission from one device to another is all the rage at CES. I think I'd subscribe to a service like this. Like I said, just my crazy thoughts.

The PS3 has two games that any hardcore gamers care about and those are MGS4 and the Final Fantasy series. It's questionable whether either those will make an impact large since they don't historically sell as well as some multiplatform games like EA sports titles and the like.



The farther away you get from the system launch the less it's about the hardcore gamers and the more it's about the average and more casual gamers.

Most hardcore gamers have already bought what they want. The console war is moving toward the mainstream.

Not to highjack the thread, but those of you familiar with music giants, is it possible to remove the DRM in order to rip it into an apple compatible (lossless)file so that I can place it on my ipod? I love the idea of lossless downloading and have visited the music giants site, but my wife and I have ipods in which we rip CD's using apple lossless and also rip other stuff using WMA lossless for streaming thru my xbox 360.

I was going to ask this question a few days ago but was not sure where to ask it:)

Thanks,
Brandon

Not to highjack the thread, but those of you familiar with music giants, is it possible to remove the DRM in order to rip it into an apple compatible (lossless)file so that I can place it on my ipod? I love the idea of lossless downloading and have visited the music giants site, but my wife and I have ipods in which we rip CD's using apple lossless and also rip other stuff using WMA lossless for streaming thru my xbox 360.

I was going to ask this question a few days ago but was not sure where to ask itMost (all?) of my MusicGiants lossless down loads can be legally burnt to a standard stereo CD-R in regular .cda format. IIRC 5 copies are allowed. So burn to a CD-R then copy that back to the format of your choice. :)

I find it interesting that MS really stayed out of the Warner decision but in return got Disney for their service. Sounds like a behind the scenes deal :).

Still IMO there is no way Warner would have gone HD unless Fox really would have switched. I still think Fox used their BD+ releases to test the effectiveness of BD+ and found it was adequate for plugging the AACS workaround. After that test there was no way they would have ever switched and just used the deal Toshiba offered them as a way to get more money and concessions out of BDA.

As far as downloads go, I think they'll be successful as a VoD rental like movie service, but I don't think it'll work as a Download to own service. They'd need to make it DRM free like music will be in the future for it to succeed. Otherwise, the download to own service is nothing more than the failed divx format minus the disc.

You've got to be kidding. BD+ is a joke and history as far as copy protection is concerned.

people don’t want physical media.
How this guy became a Billionaire is beyond me.

He couldn't predict rain standing in a hurricane.

It's no wonder Microsoft missed the boat on the Internet (among other things).

How this guy became a Billionaire is beyond me.

He couldn't predict rain standing in a hurricane.

It's no wonder Microsoft missed the boat on the Internet (among other things).

MS is one of the most pathetic companies on earth. They only enter markets after its being dominated by the pioneers. Whether its google, iPod or RiM. This company was just at the right place in the right time, dumb luck. And their operating system sucks!

MS is one of the most pathetic companies on earth. They only enter markets after its being dominated by the pioneers. Whether its google, iPod or RiM. This company was just at the right place in the right time, dumb luck. And their operating system sucks!


I had a mp3 player before there were ipods you know.

I've had media pcs attached to my tv long before apple tv.

I had a high def media format before the ps3 .

Every company moves into other markets to make money. Don't see what the problem is . I think your just being a fanboy. Its a shame.

side related but...
is it just me or does Willy Gates sound more and more like one of the Borg every time he speaks?

"You will be assimilated into the internet. Resistance is futile."

Bill Gates Unplugged (http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/2008/01/07/bill-gates-unplugged/)

I like Bill but I think he is not thinking clearly when he says digital downloads will be the future. First off, when people go to the internet to look for something they want it pretty much for free. So he'll need to find different ways to generate money for that. No one in the world will ever feel that something that they cannot touch or own like physical media is of much value. Second people do not trust content from the internet and quite honestly the RIAA actions has scared off alot of potential customers. You know to me there is a whole slew of issues that need to be worked out before digital downloads sales beat out physical media sales and people in the industry aren't willing to make sacrifices either. If Bill proves me wrong I'll have even more respect for the man but for right now I think the odds aren't stacked in his favor. I'm not even going to go into depth about the support for HD-DVD in the interview I think we can clearly see where his head at with that. But I will see say that since the HDi programming language isn't being offered to any BD manufacturers as of yet he gets some respect from me on that.

Untill the day comes that I can buy my music and movies from a single internet store and without DRM I wont touch media downloads.

Now currently "every" music studio wants to have their own media store etc. **** I would have to be registered to about 20 internet music stores to get the selection I want and even then I couldn't get it without DRM and in a lossless format.

Downloads are in a sad state everyone wants a piece out if they keep doing this then downloads will fail.

I just want to say in the past year we have had this same discussion many times and nothing has changed from then to now, all the same obsticles exist and will for a while and yes no one can be accurate with a blanket statement "no one wants disks", there are many people that do and there are a lot of people that want to own the material either way and imo a lot of the future around downloads isn't about ownership but a price per viewing, so as always be careful what you wish for.

And to further scare you... to those that want downloads here is what you are going to have to live with... You will get the lowest quality HD where the masses accept as good enough, like Direct TV etc. It won't be the 'philes determining it but Joe's as they represent the market. I can assure you it will be under your standards. The reason being is that the smallest footprint is what they are after as that represents the cheapest mfg cost and the fastest way to deliver the product. For HD 720P is the start as it is the format on Live and I would expect that to be the norm. for quite a while.

They have been predicting the death of the CD since the the iPod was introduced into the market, and it hasn't happened yet.

Gates is wrong, Physical media will never die. People are not big fans of DRM, and downloadable content not only offers LESS (no extras, etc). They also introduce loads of DRM into the mix.

Great point. I remember buying one iTunes album and then having to deal with DRM every time I upgraded or added a computer or iPod to the house. That was my last album. I only buy CDs or LPs/SACDs/DVD-Audio ripped to lossless and no DRM. I can stream them all over the house since I own them.

Yep - a lesson to many, never bet against Mr Gates (I remember how hard they laughed at him when he started that "retarded" thing called USB). I'll bet he's laughing at the format that relies on JAVA as ever being anything but a problem child...........plays right into his hands.

USB was developed initially by Intel. In fact Microsoft had an absolutely terrible USB driver stack in Windows 95, and it took until Windows 98 before USB wasn't an experience in total frustration on a Microsoft platform.

Intel including the USB controller and hub into their chipsets set the stage for the ubiquity of the platform. Despite that, it wasn't until Apple released the original iMac, which used USB as its only peripheral and expansion connection interface that USB adoption finally started to ramp up amongst 3rd-party device manufacturers.

You can bet against Microsoft. Just never bet against Intel. :)

USB was developed initially by Intel. In fact Microsoft had an absolutely terrible USB driver stack in Windows 95, and it took until Windows 98 before USB wasn't an experience in total frustration on a Microsoft platform.

Intel including the USB controller and hub into their chipsets set the stage for the ubiquity of the platform. Despite that, it wasn't until Apple released the original iMac, which used USB as its only peripheral and expansion connection interface that USB adoption finally started to ramp up amongst 3rd-party device manufacturers.

You can bet against Microsoft. Just never bet against Intel. :)

I'd think that had Microsoft not supported USB at all (not even poorly implemented), Apple could have put USB in all their products, and USB would not have become the standard it is today. Accept it, the millions of Windows boxes out there did the trick and provided the traction for USB to mature as a technology.

If Bill Gates has his way, you'd have video rental stores replaced with kiosks in a department store, you'd rent or buy a USB flash drive from a cashier, you'd walk up and wait for 30 minutes to an hour for your movie, and boom.

USB was developed initially by Intel. In fact Microsoft had an absolutely terrible USB driver stack in Windows 95, and it took until Windows 98 before USB wasn't an experience in total frustration on a Microsoft platform.
Developed by........but pushed forward by? M$

I'd think that had Microsoft not supported USB at all (not even poorly implemented), Apple could have put USB in all their products, and USB would not have become the standard it is today. Accept it, the millions of Windows boxes out there did the trick and provided the traction for USB to mature as a technology.
Exactly - the last time Crapple had any impact on IT was a couple of decades ago - 5% marketshare doesn't make a standard.

Untill the day comes that I can buy my music and movies from a single internet store and without DRM I wont touch media downloads.

Now currently "every" music studio wants to have their own media store etc. **** I would have to be registered to about 20 internet music stores to get the selection I want and even then I couldn't get it without DRM and in a lossless format.

Downloads are in a sad state everyone wants a piece out if they keep doing this then downloads will fail.

In order for digital downloads to really get going we need every artist to open up their own website. This way an artist can charge less for an album downloaded off of their site and of course charge more for CDs purchased at the store. Biggest problem Bill needs to understand is that ppl will adapt and always pirate media content. One of the many advantages of the digital era is there is very little degradation in quality through time and distance. Thats how it is now and thats how its going to be from here on out. If an artists music or film is really good and priced at a amount people can easily afford then no one will illegally download their content. Also if they throw in simple incentives like download a movie for cheap weeks before the actual dvd release in the retail stores that would help as well. Only the new upcoming independent artists out there are going to be the ones to make money off of digital downloads and thats good because the money in the entertainment industry needs to be distributed to more artists anyways.

Not only the pipeline but if you want to own the movies and have them available for rewatching at any time you also have to STORE the movies.

Sure network savvy users can/will do it but as soon as you say "on your home network" you probably lost the Mass Market. Pop in a disk vs "on your home network"?

No the ideal would be that you don't need to store your movies. You would a library of tens or thousands of movies that could be found with a quality interface. There is no need to own the movies. Pay your fee and watch at when you want. No need for savvy network users. But alas we are not their yet.

In 5 years will a HD movie still be 50GB coming through the pipeline? Serious question...I do not know the answer. It seems it could be zipped up somehow and then unzipped on our end.

Microsoft's apparent lack of support at CES for HD-DVD makes me believe they really don't care about either format. They just don't want to alienate the movie studios so they can enter into business relationships with them for digital transmission of their content.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/2008-01-07-comcast_N.htm?csp=34

Comcast in 2008 will offer Internet speeds as fast as 160 megabits per second, up from its current top of 16 mbps. "We're going to download a two hour-plus movie in high-definition in three minutes and 56 seconds," he says. The price will depend on demand.

It is coming, possibly sooner than most think.

i will like hd downloads if i can keep the movie.... thats the only way to work but how big are hd movies, just the movie?

How many HD discs have you watched four times? If a disc costs you $20 - $25 and a download costs you $5, couldn't you download it all four times you wished to watch it? Just asking...

I do. I've had 2 computers crash on me in the last 3 years. Music is too important to me to risk being on a HD only. Much of my collection is rare and/or OOP, so the odds of finding for downloading is slim, much less lossless. Lossy music sounds like crap on my music only system. Hell, I still listen to my LPs, many of which never made it to CD.
J

I agree...sorta. VHS is dead, but I have a lot of stuff on VHS that I taped off of TV and ain't EVER coming out on DVD. That doesn't mean, though, that I don't prefer DVD and HD DVD.

First: there is not enough choices of lossless downloads.

B: :D While I have all my music ripped to a RAID and have a USB backup I still don't trust HD's in the log run I want the actual hard copy.

3: I still get a high satisfaction by opening and holding in my hand.

All of which apply to HDM also.

Agree. I cannot say how much data, including downloaded VOD, I've lost on bad drives/computers. I don't back-up religiously--and who has the time or inclination--and have no idea how to back up DRM or move it to another computer. When I download programmes, I always opt for the disc. This is all too much work -- and largely for an inferior product.

The idea of Internet downloading is NOT going to catch on with mom and pop, who have helped make DVD one of he most successful media, and it is barely that enticing to me.

....and here is the disconnect!

What if I told you that A LOT of people (car audio, In Car Entertainments/I.C.E) actually play the DVD JUST to listen to the audio and the loud booms in the car? Sounds crazy but thier is a slew of folks that do that.

Really?:eek: That's FUNNY!

One sentence that has me scratching me head and wondering why nobody pounced on it.

"The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way."

Did Bill just leak something there? Or am I taking it out of context?

WB.

WB.

Paramount HDDVD Warner BD that's it I think.Interesting how he chose not to use the name of the offender whose name had been struck from all scriptures.

Art

Sony?

Square Enix, EA sports. Sony has nothing to do with the "games" aspect of the PS3 save a few that Sony makes (which I know of none of the top of my head, perhaps Grand Tourismo 5)

which btw I hope hope that Kingom Hearts III makes it out some time soon!!

I FINALLY googled your "magic smoke" quote and got the answer to what the heck it was all about!

taken from another post in this thread:

Bii Gates:
"No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right."

Highlighted sentence in red.

People marketing 101 and he is a smart man throwing in a bit of persuasion. He is telling you you don't want discs, but you do want downloads.


Read between his lines and Amir's as well. They have to tread lightly and say what is best in the their interest which is the company's interest.

I'm shocked...! Shocked to find business going on in here! :p

...does anyone buy CDs anymore?

Yes. Music lovers who like works that are longer than two and a half minutes!

i am sure digital download is around the corner but i will not be able to afford it
what they are charging me now for high speed and hd tier is ridiculous and i
doubt they are going to offer more for the same or less thats bad business.

as to still buying cd's and dvd's yes i do when its something i want.