We all know that as of now, the only way we can watch high-def is through either HD DVD, Blu-ray, downloads, cable/satellite boxes, and computers. However, now with the price of solid state media cards and jump drives coming down, significantly in price, do you feel that this may be the next big thing in Hollywood? This may be just a dream for now, but do you see this being something that may come around? Will this be more cost effective in the future, and go through copy-protective measures? Let's hear your thoughts on what could potentially be a future media format.

Panasonic showed a 16GB card at CES today and said more was coming soon. Once they can get it to around 32GB, I would say we would see it start to happen. It's a long time before it would be affordable though. I would also think the studios have a paradigm against it.

I forgot what article (since I've read a zillion in the last two days), but some media research guy or studio exec guy said flash drives could be the future, but more of just the "interim" future before online's inevitability.

no moving parts on either the player OR the media = less problems.
If it uses a USB 2 connection. Looking at 480 Mb/s max throughput (bandwidth for the CE folks). They are small and easy to handle. Make them read only and done. :)

Not as a mass market HDM distro, but I could see it growing in popularity for managed copy uses (I want to put this movie on my laptop, and play it in the car for the kids on our trip).

BTW, MS could still "win" there if/when managed copy on BDs let's you transfer software-protected content to other platforms...using MS software presumably.

I still feel that most people like to have the physical media, particularly for movies. There will be a market for HD movie downloads but I still think a physical format will exist and remain to be quite popular.

I just pray that DVD does not remain the standard 5 or 10 years from now. Hopefully once player costs get really low and media costs are much less, people will jump on the bandwagon.

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?

I worked with a company 2 years ago (European) that was making a portable flash drive so that you could walk up to a movie kiosk and download your movie to your flash drive.

http://www.portomedia.com/what.html

We did 1.5 Gbps back then but are now doing 6 Gbps transfer rates on the IO now. You get your 50 Gb HD download in about 10 seconds. It takes you longer to use the touch screen to find the movie you want.

Don't know if it will take off in Europe or elsewhere. I do know that McDonalds is priming the pump with DVD kiosks NOW but with optical media. The transition to flash card is a very simple and trivial matter.

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?

You use a flash card to get your movie to plug into a USB port on your player.

Ever hear of USB flash drives. They are the size of a pink pearl eraser and cost $20 for 8 Gb now. Within 1 year you will see 64 G for $50 and this is your movie carry package from kiosk to home player (with USB) port of course. You only need 1 and you can make MANY round trips to the kiosk.

Apparently since the death of HD-DVD, everything under the sun is the future of HDM (except Blu-Ray, of course).

Take your pick:

VUDU
HD VOD
Xbox Live Marketplace
HD VMD
Upconverted DVD (does this even count as HDM?)
Solid State
iTunes/Unbox

All of which have even less support in the HDM market than HD-DVD ever did, and far less support than Blu-Ray.

I forgot what article (since I've read a zillion in the last two days), but some media research guy or studio exec guy said flash drives could be the future, but more of just the "interim" future before online's inevitability.
A little bit of a tangent to your message, but although on-line distribution is probably inevitable, I am consistently amazed by those who think that it is right around the corner. Although I have downloaded a number of shows and movies over XBOX Live, they are at a reduced level of quality, and still take several hours to download. This just doesn't lend itself to spontaneous purchases/rentals, and the bandwidth to radically improve the situation won't exist for a very long time.

Back on topic, I have wondered recently about the feasibility of solid-state media. It certainly would have advantages in durability and portability, and could allow the capability to read HD media to be built into the TV itself.

Apparently since the death of HD-DVD, everything under the sun is the future of HDM (except Blu-Ray, of course).

Take your pick:

VUDU
HD VOD
Xbox Live Marketplace
HD VMD
Upconverted DVD (does this even count as HDM?)
Solid State
iTunes/Unbox

All of which have even less support in the HDM market than HD-DVD ever did, and far less support than Blu-Ray.


Everybody wants to deliver HD content to people. Blu-ray does not get it without competition. HD DVD was the first of many competitors vying for the right to supply people with HD content.

Do you think DirecTV, Dish Network, Comcast and others don't want in?

Not to mention MS, AT&T, SBC, QWest, Verison, T-Mobile ......

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?
You mean like dvds...don't think so:D

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?

Are you really in that much of a hurry to spend your money?:rolleyes:

Well, if Bill Gates can bring the WMV HD format into a better light, like in the CE world, as opposed to PCs and such, then we may have a shot. Having WMV HD SDKs brought into Hollywood, where they can film in that format, stick it on a copy-protected, read-only flash memory card that can be made portable, we may be looking at something that can probably even fit on something like an SD card. That could be where I see things headed.

Would be cool to have a download service that you just buy the right to download whenever you want so personal storage isn't a huge issue. Download, put to the media of your choice (SD card, HDD etc) then if you want to watch later and don't WANT to store it (though that's an option), you can just download again. I like the Xbox Live service, but you can't buy movies. I know piracy is probably a huge deterrent for a service like this.

As far as a SS media format goes.. I think it's too expensive right now.

I still feel that most people like to have the physical media, particularly for movies. There will be a market for HD movie downloads but I still think a physical format will exist and remain to be quite popular.

I just pray that DVD does not remain the standard 5 or 10 years from now. Hopefully once player costs get really low and media costs are much less, people will jump on the bandwagon.

solid state is physical media. this thread is not about downloaded media.
solid state = flash card. ;)

The Video Game industry was solid state for a long time until the CD came along and they switched because CDs cost less and held more data. I can't imagine anyone going back as I figure an optical disc will always cost less than a SSD.

Apparently since the death of HD-DVD, everything under the sun is the future of HDM (except Blu-Ray, of course).

Take your pick:

VUDU
HD VOD
Xbox Live Marketplace
HD VMD
Upconverted DVD (does this even count as HDM?)
Solid State
iTunes/Unbox

All of which have even less support in the HDM market than HD-DVD ever did, and far less support than Blu-Ray.

Don't forget that there were several lengthy discussions on the future of HDM long before the Warner announcement. Many posters questioned all along whether HDM would ever succeed in optical form. Look up the "800 lb. gorilla" thread as one example. So while this may be a growing opinion, it's not a new one.


As far as solid state, I don't see it being more than a niche market. The concept of taking a thumb drive to a kiosk and downloading a movie requires making a trip. Isn't not needing to go anywhere what makes Netflix so popular? I think the future of HDM will be a direct-to-the-home technology.

Right, and if Microsoft and SanDisk can come together, and jointly come up with a format that will make ALL optical media obsolete, this could be the right path to take. SanDisk is into mass production of memory cards, as we all well know, they are the best known company for flash cards. Now, if Microsoft can come up with a movie format standard, and use a specially made flash card that can be produced with a very small cost to manufacture, we could be looking at change for HDM in the next few years.

The concept of taking a thumb drive to a kiosk and downloading a movie requires making a trip. Isn't not needing to go anywhere what makes Netflix so popular? I think the future of HDM will be a direct-to-the-home technology.


Yeah, but the people that haven't already canceled their Block Buster Online membership tend to stay with it because of the ability to exchange their movie in at a b&m store. That was why I went with them in the first place and loved that feature of their membership.. but they ended up pricing me out... Now I'm a Netflix user and I almost miss the exchanging in the store enough to switch back :\ The online downloads Netflix offers is crap.

The Video Game industry was solid state for a long time until the CD came along and they switched because CDs cost less and held more data. I can't imagine anyone going back as I figure an optical disc will always cost less than a SSD.

Optical has limitations though, notably the light spectrum. So you can only pack so much data into a set amount of space. Solid state has a much higher data density, so you can store more data in the same amount of space - or the same amount of data in less space. Solid state also has a massive speed advantage.

The reason game consoles went from solid state to optical storage was cost. Now that solid state costs have dropped substantially, it is poised to make a comeback in certain applications.

I predicted 5 years ago that memory discs would be the future of all media. Prices keep comming down. Not only that it is smaller and more portable as well and you cant scratch it. It also has zero moving parts.

I think it would be great. You could use your memory card and watch it on practically any device.

Moors law.

I wonder how long until 1tb memory sticks are avaible. 5 years for $20? Hold 30 movies on one stick.

I guess people don't understand the concept of a solid state drive and a kiosk so I'll explain it with an analogy.

Neflix is a kiosk. They have kiosks (distribution centers) in many cities. When you order a movie they mail from their mass storage device (warehouse) to your home player. When your done you talk the movie disc back to the mailbox and get another one.

A solid state drive works the same. You walk to a kiosk (mass storage device/server) and download a 50G movie in 10-20 seconds that you select from a screen. You take it home and plug into your player and play. When your done you walk you solid state drive back to the kiosk for another movie.

Nothing prevents you from buying 2 or 20 solid state transport drives. McDonalds has DVD kiosks now. Tomorrow they may very well be solid state drives.

How do you order pictures from your digital camera? You take you solid state memory to a kiosk and select to print. Same thing.

I guess people don't understand the concept of a solid state drive and a kiosk so I'll explain it with an analogy.

Neflix is a kiosk. They have kiosks (distribution centers) in many cities. When you order a movie they mail from their mass storage device (warehouse) to your home player. When your done you talk the movie disc back to the mailbox and get another one.

A solid state drive works the same. You walk to a kiosk (mass storage device/server) and download a 50G movie in 10-20 seconds that you select from a screen. You take it home and plug into your player and play. When your done you walk you solid state drive back to the kiosk for another movie.

Nothing prevents you from buying 2 or 20 solid state transport drives. McDonalds has DVD kiosks now. Tomorrow they may very well be solid state drives.

How do you order pictures from your digital camera? You take you solid state memory to a kiosk and select to print. Same thing.

That is what I am talking about.

Every sams club, Costco, Walmart, Safeway, 7 Eleven will have them eventually. Just like every place has a bank machine.

Are you really in that much of a hurry to spend your money?:rolleyes:

I guess answering a question with a question is supposed to be cute?:confused:

You don't think that the movie industry is looking at these cheap $10 - $15 2GB SD cards out there wondering how they can keep a movie in high-def, and cram that onto one of those? That's where I see things going. They aren't as expensive as those solid state hard drives, yet, SD cards are very portable. I'm thinking that someone like Apple, Microsoft, Real, etc... may consider writing software that will allow for high-def to be smaller in size capacity, yet not lose the 1080p quality or 7.1 surround sound.

We are committed to HD using optical disc. The only reason to go to a new technology is to offer something greater than HD - SHD - 4K.

A 4K movie uncompressed is between 10 TB's and 12 TB's.

You going to have a cheap SS device that can hold 200GB or 400GB than can be made cheaply and replicated by the millions in a short period of time?

20 years? maybe.

Don't forget that there were several lengthy discussions on the future of HDM long before the Warner announcement. Many posters questioned all along whether HDM would ever succeed in optical form. Look up the "800 lb. gorilla" thread as one example. So while this may be a growing opinion, it's not a new one.


As far as solid state, I don't see it being more than a niche market. The concept of taking a thumb drive to a kiosk and downloading a movie requires making a trip. Isn't not needing to go anywhere what makes Netflix so popular? I think the future of HDM will be a direct-to-the-home technology.

I've been saying for the last year VOD is the future. DVD will be around for quite some time, but HD optical's future is very fuzzy. The more HD VOD grows, the more market share it will pull from HD optical, making its penetration even more difficult. The only thing holding back HD VOD is the providers themselves at this point.

Just read the news. Sony may even be launching HD VOD for the PS3.
http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/12/sony_to_add_hig.html
http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6509891.html
http://www.comcast.com/About/PressRelease/PressReleaseDetail.ashx?PRID=28
http://www.comcast.com/About/PressRelease/PressReleaseDetail.ashx?PRID=42

I never see solid state reaching beyond the fringe as well. It's just not convenient enough.

If Sony hadn't been concentrating on Blu-ray so much, which they are, as well as HD VOD for the PS3, I'd have to say that even tho PSP's UVD format went belly-up, I'd see a version of their Memory Stick Duo being a good way to bring movie formats to the table in flash/solid state form. Since those memory cards are coming down in price big time, Sony could take advantage of doing that. That may not be until next year's CES before something like that ever came from them.

I guess people don't understand the concept of a solid state drive and a kiosk so I'll explain it with an analogy.

Neflix is a kiosk. They have kiosks (distribution centers) in many cities. When you order a movie they mail from their mass storage device (warehouse) to your home player. When your done you talk the movie disc back to the mailbox and get another one.

A solid state drive works the same. You walk to a kiosk (mass storage device/server) and download a 50G movie in 10-20 seconds that you select from a screen. You take it home and plug into your player and play. When your done you walk you solid state drive back to the kiosk for another movie.

Nothing prevents you from buying 2 or 20 solid state transport drives. McDonalds has DVD kiosks now. Tomorrow they may very well be solid state drives.

How do you order pictures from your digital camera? You take you solid state memory to a kiosk and select to print. Same thing.

I know how this works, but it's still not convenient. VOD cuts out the middle man. You can browse a selection of movies right from your couch, and start watching at the press of a few buttons. That is much more convenient than making a trip to a Kiosk to download a movie to a drive.

Also, people are starting to print their digital pictures from home too. For example, I can upload pics through the web to Costco and they'll mail my finished prints to me. It's how I did my Christmas cards this year. The days of going to a store for something mundane like renting a movie or printing film / digital pics are coming to an end.

I in vision a satalite system. Very high speed one way. You buy a player with storage inside, put the little antenna (xm/sirius) and subscribe to the service. With the right to burn x no of copys for your use on what ever media you chose.

a kiosk system has one drawback. only one person can use one at a time. im not waiting in a line for 30 minutes while sally cant decide between two movies while she yells at her kids and talks on a cell phone. a grocery store has a vending machine for dvds. one lady was in front of that thing for 20 minutes i wasnt waiting to check it out. its a no sale for me.

with that said. buying a movie that is encoded on a usb type drive would be awesome. imagine bringing 20 of them to a friends house in your pocket. no scratches or skips to worry about. no cleaning to worry about. and even more portable. thats what i am looking for. it would save major shelf space too. reading what movie it was would be an issue though. hehehe.

The Kodak picture kiosk at my local store has 4 sides. 4 people can use it at a time.

I like the idea of being able to pick up an HD movie on my tiny USB drive on my keychain. You could then save it to a PC for later use if you want to reuse it.

Heck, you could even play the movies on your PS3!!! My bet is it would upscale a 720p movie to 1080p and you couldn't tell the difference!

You use a flash card to get your movie to plug into a USB port on your player.

Ever hear of USB flash drives. They are the size of a pink pearl eraser and cost $20 for 8 Gb now. Within 1 year you will see 64 G for $50 and this is your movie carry package from kiosk to home player (with USB) port of course. You only need 1 and you can make MANY round trips to the kiosk.

Holy **** can I get a link here?!

I bought a 4Gb flash drive for almost 100$ at staples a couple months ago.

Are these good quality flash drives or unreliable chinese ish products?

Wow, hard to believe that a year ago, you'd be lucky to get a 256MB flash drive for that price tag. Now all of the sudden, you have flash drives that can hold an entire HDM on them. I'm definitely thinking that everyone would buy into this. Maybe Blockbuster may resort to doing this after a while, if the exclusive Blu-ray bit hurts them.

Holy **** can I get a link here?!

I bought a 4Gb flash drive for almost 100$ at staples a couple months ago.

Are these good quality flash drives or unreliable chinese ish products?

Here's a good quality PQI model for $34 (http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820141265)

I have seen generic 8gb drives for less.

Here's what I see Blockbuster doing, or even NetFlix, Hollywood, Iggle, etc... They will have a kiosk out there in the store, and you rent a flash drive from the cashier. He will probably charge you $5 - $10 per download, depending on the movie. You will be able to download the movie from the kiosk onto the flash drive, and then it will attach software on there, which will activate the movie for the time you rented it for. After your time is up on your rental limit, the software will automatically lock the movie from further viewing, and prompt you to return the jump drive to the store. That's where I see technology going in the near future. It'll work just like Xbox Live rentals, basically, only in a portable flash drive that you can watch anywhere you plug that in, just so long as it supports the video format of said video store's choosing.

no moving parts on either the player OR the media = less problems.
If it uses a USB 2 connection. Looking at 480 Mb/s max throughput (bandwidth for the CE folks). They are small and easy to handle. Make them read only and done. :)

By the time solid state storage is cheap enough to make this worth anything, USB 2 will be a thing of the past.

By the time solid state storage is cheap enough to make this worth anything, USB 2 will be a thing of the past.Forget USB. It only needs SD HC cards or even micro SD HC cards. Panasonic announced a 32 GB SD HC card at this week's CES. 8 GB micro SD HC cards are $109 and 6 GB micro SD HC cards go for less than $70 --- now.

We all know that as of now, the only way we can watch high-def is through either HD DVD, Blu-ray, downloads, cable/satellite boxes, and computers. However, now with the price of solid state media cards and jump drives coming down, significantly in price, do you feel that this may be the next big thing in Hollywood? This may be just a dream for now, but do you see this being something that may come around? Will this be more cost effective in the future, and go through copy-protective measures? Let's hear your thoughts on what could potentially be a future media format.

I believe it is very possible. The smaller size of the physical media would be very appealing to consumers.

I want the day to come ASAP that I can sit on my couch, pull up a menu of my movies, and watch whatever one I'm in the mood for in beautiful HD. I'm tired of fishing through the house looking for that one movie my kids are insisting on (only to remember it's in the van...).

If solid state can get me there the soonest, I'll gladly spend money on a huge hard drive/home server. Much better deal in the end than either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.

i will believe in the ss hd when i can get 2gb sd cards for my camera for 2.00.

Flash memory would be nice, but I'd like to see a continued effort to develop optical storage without the need for a spinning disc. The holographic storage that many companies have in the works shows a lot of promise. How about an entire collection or series of HDM on a single card? Flash memory doesn't have the longevity that optical storage offers yet.

By the time solid state storage is cheap enough to make this worth anything, USB 2 will be a thing of the past.


I am going to say I doubt it. Unless there is a USB 3 in the works. 480 Mb/s is damn fast. Even fastet than SATA buses! Short of HBA fiber @ 1 Gb/s.

I never see solid state reaching beyond the fringe as well. It's just not convenient enough.


Flash memory is IMO more convenient than optical media and there are no moving parts to wear out.A key drive with a USB port would be the most logical solution because it's the standard now and you could plug it in directly to a TV.
BTW:they are working on USB 3.0: http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9780794-7.html

I know how this works, but it's still not convenient. VOD cuts out the middle man. You can browse a selection of movies right from your couch, and start watching at the press of a few buttons. That is much more convenient than making a trip to a Kiosk to download a movie to a drive.

Yep, if people don't want to go to a store to pick up a physical copy of a movie, why would a kiosk be any better?

Apparently since the death of HD-DVD, everything under the sun is the future of HDM (except Blu-Ray, of course).

Take your pick:

VUDU
HD VOD
Xbox Live Marketplace
HD VMD
Upconverted DVD (does this even count as HDM?)
Solid State
iTunes/Unbox

All of which have even less support in the HDM market than HD-DVD ever did, and far less support than Blu-Ray.


IMO, were it actually feasible in terms of capacity and speed/bandwidth, etc, delivery of HDM's on solid state devices would represent the most revolutionary step of anything we've experienced thus far. A small, ultra-portable device that goes anywhere and plays in multiple devices (think set-tops and portable players) would make this whole transition palatable for a larger number of people I think.

I don't think it's likely anytime soon though.

Yep, if people don't want to go to a store to pick up a physical copy of a movie, why would a kiosk be any better?

Kiosk's offer less overhead, less cost, They can be located in stores, near supermarkets, etc...Kiosk's would be ideal in many ways, but again, I don't think this idea's coming to market anytime soon.

Kiosk's offer less overhead, less cost, They can be located in stores, near supermarkets, etc...Kiosk's would be ideal in many ways, but again, I don't think this idea's coming to market anytime soon.Sure, not likely this year with current SD card prices/sizes. But not in too many years more (2?)-- perhaps why WHV was concerned with getting the $ now since the rotating blue laser optical Hi Def format market may not last much longer.

The Blockbusters, Wal-Mart's, Target's, Best Buy's, etc could have their movie vending kiosk's served by something like FIOS or even shipped in terabyte hard disc drives.

Tell me why 32 GB SD cards, just coming out now, will not get cheaper. Plus they can be re-used many many times. :)

Sure, not likely this year with current SD card prices/sizes. But not in too many years more (2?)-- perhaps why WHV was concerned with getting the $ now since the rotating blue laser optical Hi Def format market may not last much longer.

The Blockbusters, Wal-Mart's, Target's, Best Buy's, etc could have their movie vending kiosk's served by something like FIOS or even shipped in terabyte hard disc drives.

Tell me why 32 GB SD cards, just coming out now, will not get cheaper. Plus they can be re-used many many times. :)

I don't understand format fans. If you recall, 2001 Space Odyssey...remember the memory modules. It's the same thing. We are headed to small solid state, ultra-high speed media which are format neutral and extremely stable. No disc scratches and extreme portability....this will fill in the gap for those without fiber like I have currently. :-)

Sure, not likely this year with current SD card prices/sizes. But not in too many years more (2?)-- perhaps why WHV was concerned with getting the $ now since the rotating blue laser optical Hi Def format market may not last much longer.

The Blockbusters, Wal-Mart's, Target's, Best Buy's, etc could have their movie vending kiosk's served by something like FIOS or even shipped in terabyte hard disc drives.

Tell me why 32 GB SD cards, just coming out now, will not get cheaper. Plus they can be re-used many many times. :)


It's inevitable they become cheaper, bigger, and faster...kinda like Steve Austin in reverse. :) I think SD size would be ideal for portability, and yes, they could be reused for rentals. Two things scare me though:


I'd prefer to have a collection of movies. I hope something like this wouldn't mean movie collections go the way of the Dodo; and

They'd be mighty easy to lose. :eek:

Even for solid-state movie distribution, I don't think that downloading kiosk will be major distribution outlet. Downloading kiosk I mean, you brows various movies at the kiosk and selects one, then insert your personal solid-state media (I will call it SSM) and coins or credit-card into the kiosk, wait few minutes to download the movie, then leave the kiosk.

Consumer will prefer renting ready-made SSM movies from ordinary video rental shop to downloading movie to personal SSM at kiosk.

Customers come to video rental shop. They brows various movies from display rack or brows short "preview"s at kiosk in the rental shop. After selecting a movie or two, they ask shopkeeper to give the movie on ready-made SSM or on conventional media like DVD or HD optical media. It is much quicker and easier for customer than downloading. No waiting time. No need to carry your own SSM media. Easy payment than coin-operated kiosk. More friendly to less technically sophisticated ordinary people. (esp. old people)

Renting ready-made SSM takes much less total number of solid-state media in circulation than downloading to personal SSM. It will have much higher numbers of rental transaction per each individual SSM over its life time. It means less cost for retailer, movie company, and consumers.

Used SSM with old movie (and no longer popular) will be recycled for new movie in the same rental shop. It can be "pressed" with new movie in the rental shop and stocked in timely manner according to changing demand. Expensive media cost of SSM will be spread over very long period (~ 5 years) and many many (over thousands of) rental transactions. In fact, distribution cost per movie of renting ready-made SSM is cheaper than that of renting DVD.
.

Flash memory is IMO more convenient than optical media and there are no moving parts to wear out.A key drive with a USB port would be the most logical solution because it's the standard now and you could plug it in directly to a TV.
BTW:they are working on USB 3.0: http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9780794-7.htmlBy convenient, I think he means disposable.
Flash drives have their uses, but so do cheap optical discs you can freely lend and distribute.
And I dont mean just in-store, I mean to friends, family, colleagues, STRANGERS etc.

Remember ZIP drives?
...yeah, I never had one either.

Panasonic showed a 16GB card at CES today and said more was coming soon. Once they can get it to around 32GB, I would say we would see it start to happen. It's a long time before it would be affordable though. I would also think the studios have a paradigm against it.

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?

No, it is cheaper than you might think.
Rental video don't need Full Blu-ray or HD-DVD (optical HD disc) picture quality. ATSC HDTV PQ is O.K. for most rental video customer. It doesn't need extra features which is important for buy-to-own (sell-through) video but takes significant storage space. Movie with less picture quality and without extra bells-and whistles will take much less space than full optical HD disc. So 8-16GB storage for solid-state media space is more than enough for most feature movie video.

The solid-state player is much cheaper to make than Blu-ray or HD-DVD player because it does not need expensive blue laser pick-up or high-precision mechanical deck. No moving parts, just cheap all electronics parts. Standalone solid-state player will cost less than $100. CE manufactures can add such solid-state HD player functionality to existing HDTV sets or DVD player design with $50 or so and with virtually no additional space.

Solid-state media is expensive for now. But, as I explained in posting above, if the ready-made movie in solid-state media is rented by video shop, not owned by consumer, expensive cost of solid-state media does not matter at all for renting operation over long period. It costs less than DVD video for video rental shop operation.

The solide-state rental video media/player makes perfect economic sense today, not in future.

Movie company/studios has no reason to object this scheme. Smart solid-state media can be protected more safely than dumb optical media. Movie company can invent new solid-state media form-factor or spec/standard that can not be easily accessed by ordinary PC. PC will need HDCP-complaint display/driver software/USB media reader to play this media. So it cannot be copied to HDD or ordinary flash memory card.
The solid-state media is read-only for consumer player/device. Only licensed solid-state media player can read and play it. Rental shop should use special media writer machine, which is well-guarded and strictly accountable for each copy operation. All individual copy operation of the special writer machine should be counted and reported to movie company for charging copy fee over Internet or secure internal counter. Much more expensive and sophisticated protection can be used for special writer machine for rental shop.
For speed of copy operation, writing 10 media of few different movies within 5-10 min. is practical today. It is more than enough for individual video rental shop.
.

A solid state drive works the same. You walk to a kiosk (mass storage device/server) and download a 50G movie in 10-20 seconds that you select from a screen. You take it home and plug into your player and play. When your done you walk you solid state drive back to the kiosk for another movie.

Kiosk's offer less overhead, less cost, They can be located in stores, near supermarkets, etc...Kiosk's would be ideal in many ways, but again, I don't think this idea's coming to market anytime soon.

One thing some people seems to ignore is speed of writing flash memory. Flash memory is quite slow memory device, slower than HDD, especially in writing and for cheaper MLC flash memory. Speed of USB or PC interface does not matter here. The flash memory chip itself is slow.

So it is impossible to write 8G byte flash memory card in 10-20 sec, let alone slow network download speed or HDD read speed. Writing 8GB MLC flash memory card will take 15-20 min. at least. It is too long time to wait in front of kiosk. So forget about downloading movie to flash memory on-the-fly in kiosk.

There are some techniques to speed up this, like parallel writing, that is not applicable to current standard flash memory cards. They are simply not designed for such a very high-speed writing.

With special memory card architecture and interface, we can shorten the writing time within range of few min. (like 5+ min per card) for 8GB without significantly increasing cost of memory card. This is acceptable speed for on-the-spot "pressing" in video rental shop. So ready-made solid-state movie is way to go. Customer who wants some old or rare movie that is not available in current ready-made solid-state movie stock, can wait 5-10 min for on-demand on-the-fly "pressing" in video shop.

Solid-state memory is too expensive for sell-through/buy-to-own video sales. It will take quite many more years before flash memory become cheap enough for that. So for sell-through/buy-to-own video media, optical HD disc like Blu-ray disc is way to go and stay a while.

On network download, I think that network connection speed is too slow today for most of U.S consumer home. It will take at least 5 years before significant portion of US consumer home can download 8GB HD movie within 1 hours or real-time HD streaming. It is network traffic hog, too. Distributing HD video to consumer home via network download will require major national-wide investment in network infrastructure. So don't count on it for the time being.
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There are Video Kiosks already in service at our local 24-hour Walmart (optical based) that rent for $0.99 per night. I have looked at it, and yes it has got user-friendly menu system etc., but it really didn't grow on me.

That's when I realized that SERVICE was a large part of the whole movie renting experience - i.e. having the movies displayed on a rack, checking out the movie titles with your friends and family, rubbing shoulders with other customers and competing, having someone to cater to your movie needs, being able to ask questions, etc. added to the movie renting experience.

I have tried netflix and found that I didn't quite like it for another reason - the movie watching actually became a chore because I became conscious of the monthly fee and I was forced to watch a movie on a schedule. Really didn't like that.

And I RARELY used Video On Demand feature on our DIRECTV. Here I was, forking over monthly fees to DIRECTV and yet they wanted more money for one lousy movie which they CONTROLLED on price and how long the movie would be available for viewing? For nearly the same price they charged, I could actually go out and BUY a DVD and I would OWN it and watch it anytime I wanted, practically forever. So VOD didn't work for me. About the only time I would use VOD would be like in the middle of the night when all the stores were closed and I couldn't go out and PICK UP a movie -- i.e. it would be the LAST RESORT type of thing.

I really think that online movie download service will NOT work for similar reasons. Initially, because it would be INCONVENIENT - I would have to wait for downloads. Regular DVD is 6GB to 8GB in size. HD-DVD/BLURAY is 20GB to 30GB. There is NO WAY I'm paying MORE for internet service so I can get faster internet speeds so then I could PAY AGAIN for each movie download -- at full DVD/HD-DVD/BLURAY retail prices. Why bother? I can just go down to my local friendly Blockbuster or Hollywood Video and rent a DVD/HD-DVD/BLURAY disc for $3.99/$4.99 RIGHT NOW. Not to mention, I can take these discs to my house, my friend's house or to a family member's house WITH ME. Am I going to have to wait for a download to finish THEN bring the set top box with me then try to hook the sucker up to their TV IF I WANT TO SHARE MY MOVIES with others? It just makes the whole affair more cumbersome and UNNECESSARILY COMPLICATED. I just don't see online download movie service taking off until a large portion of the population has access to low-priced, very high speed (i.e. capable of delivering 20GB under 5 minutes) internet and there is an easy to carry, easy to connect storage device. There would also have to be a preview price and ownership price for a movie, both less than the DVD/HD-DVD/BLURAY price.

IPOD was successful because it made listening to music much more convenient. IPOD is portable, it provides music instantaneously upon demand, it provides an easy to find interface and it organizes and allows you to carry your ENTIRE music collection in your pocket. You can listen to music while walking or while driving in your car, or at home. Trade-offs were the sound quality (MP3 does sound like crap) but people accepted it because it was more convenient. And it gives you a choice - do you want to carry 1000 MP3 songs or 100 CD quality songs? YOU get to make that decision with IPOD (or equivalent). And downloading a CD quality song (roughly 50MB per song) doesn't take an eternity and it costs less than a CD.

For the most part, a movie is an impulse based, social event. For the "collection" aspect of a movie, one must "transfer" a "sense" of everlasting ownership - through physical media, as CD's or DVD's have done.

If I was a joe-average poet and I was charging for a poem, most would expect to pay a lower fee for a poetry recital vs. having an ownership of that poem on paper, if they liked it.

Similarly, providing data alone can not command equal or higher price over providing data and physical media.

If online movie download is the future, then in the future, average movie price will be lower and movies will be even more of a commodity item than it is today.

I think solid state devices will be the way we as consumers move HD media around in a digital distribution world. As in we'd download a movie to a set-top, then use a solid-state drive to copy it to a portable media player to take on the road or to a friend's house or something.

I can certainly see a "ROM" version holding 60+ GB of data, in a form factor about the size of a micro-SD card used in many cell phones today, within a year or two.

Soon thereafter, a "RAM" (flash) version also holding 60+ GB of data, allowing one to store or copy movies from their PC.

IMHO, we will certainly reach that technology point, long before Blu-ray ever reaches the 50-50 sales point with SD DVD. Therefore, making Blu-ray die off too.

So for these SS delivery systems . . . .

Can you replicate them with the movie on them at a rate of about 120 per minute for about $1?

Can you replicate them with the movie on them at a rate of about 120 per minute for about $1?

For the "ROM" version, one would have to slow down production to limit it to 120 chips per minute. But it could be done.

So for these SS delivery systems . . . .

Can you replicate them with the movie on them at a rate of about 120 per minute for about $1?

In DVD replication model, you need few multi-million expensive pressing machine which can do such feat in few large, centralized pressing factories.

Solid-state media don't need such large factory. There are tens of thousands of video rental shop in U.S. Each rental shop will have a on-site solid-state media "replication" machine which is much cheaper than large factory machine. Each machine can replicate ten(s) of SS media in every 5-10 min. So throughout whole U.S., few tens of thousands of SS media can be replicated per each minute. Million copies can be "replicated" in less than half an hour. No physical delivery of media across whole U.S. continent is needed. It is much, much larger replication capacity than all the machines with 120 DVD per min in few factories.

SS media can be recycled thousands of times over long (> 5) years. Expensive initial cost of SS media is spread over hundreds or even thousands times of movie replication. So production cost per each movie replication is very, very low that it is lower than $1 or non-recyclable DVD production cost.
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no one has addressed how hollywood will keep these from being copied and i will
bet that will be implemented before all this other takes place.

Who believes that "solid state" is the future of HDM?

I do.

no one has addressed how hollywood will keep these from being copied and i will
bet that will be implemented before all this other takes place.

SS memory card is intelligent device. It is much flexible and easier to protect from illegal copying than passive optical HD media. In fact, most modern memory card like SD flash memory card has built-in DRM security. SD means Secure Digital. It can resist actively against tempering or illegal reader/player/copier. Hollywood surely will love secure solid-state memory card than optical disc.

Can you make these SS Cards for $1.00 and duplicate them at a rate of 120 per minute?

BINGO! :D We have a winner.

For the "ROM" version, one would have to slow down production to limit it to 120 chips per minute. But it could be done.

But NOT with content on them, correct?

SS memory card is intelligent device. It is much flexible and easier to protect from illegal copying than passive optical HD media. In fact, most modern memory card like SD flash memory card has built-in DRM security. SD means Secure Digital. It can resist actively against tempering or illegal reader/player/copier. Hollywood surely will love secure solid-state memory card than optical disc.

but it seems drm has all the hd-dvd people mad at sony now or at least
in these forums.

But NOT with content on them, correct?

You sure about that?

To the manufacture, the only change is the initial gate states for memory allocation (the 0 and 1 bit states on memory address 0X00000-0XFFFFF....).


They are already printing the gates so changing initial gate states is really not that much different :)

THough of course they probably won't do that as that chew up alot of silicone if it was done wrong or a problem is caught. Same with current hard drives.

But NOT with content on them, correct?

Yes, with content on them. ROM is, or could be, one level mask programmed right at the wafer.

I don't think that "ROM" version of SS media will be cheap enough to compete against DVD or optical HD disc.
Flash SS media is cost-effective because it can be recycled and re-used to store many different movies. But ROM version od SS media can be used for one time only. Single movie release should take all the cost of the ROM SS media.
Even in very large mass production like million units, large ROM memory (like 8GB) can not be produced in cost range of DVD cost or $1-2. It also has very stiff initial set-up cost and long lead time for mask preparation so that is is totally not suitable for low volume production.
ROM technology itself is not so cost-effective any more due to declining industrial/consumer demand and lower volume of ROM production. There is practically no new demand or production of ROM as of 2007. It is dead technology now.

While I agree that SS probably wouldn't be cost-effective enough, one interesting aspect of it is that titles with problems could possibly be corrected through downloading. We wouldn't have to send in a disc to be replaced; we could just download the corrected version (or just whatever parts need to be fixed) onto the medium. This is assuming they aren't physically made not to be copied over.

I wouldn't hold my breath for additional special features to be downloaded, however.

While I agree that SS probably wouldn't be cost-effective enough, ....

No, no. flash memory solid-state media is sufficiently cost-effective TODAY. It is as cheap as DVD cost for video rental operation.

Read my previous post. article #56 of this thread. http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12806486#post12806486

If youre talking strickly about rental operations. Then theres no use since VOD is so much more convenient.

And about these video kiosks, how much would they cost? I cant imagine a large chain like Best Buy putting in a 15 thousand dollar machine let alone your local blockbuster.

No, no. flash memory solid-state media is sufficiently cost-effective TODAY. It is as cheap as DVD cost for video rental operation.

Read my previous post. article #56 of this thread. http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12806486#post12806486

It is? How do you figure that?

DVD pressing machines can output about 120 discs per minute. That is 2 per second.

How can you make SS media that fast when you have to load the movie onto the media? Is there a transfer process that runs at 25 GB per second? Figuring 50GB for a movie - 2 seconds per "chip/card/whatever - 30 per minute - versus 4X that for a stamping machine.

ok i have a few thousand books in my library, now i could get all of those digitally on a DVD but my library would look like crap.

I have a shelf for my DVDs and my Blu-rays and i order box sets with bonus material inside. I have not rented a movie in 15 years, if i do not want to buy it i will go to the movies. Or i just wait till its on TV.

how much will it cost me to buy a SD card for every movie i own and print and make a nice folder for each one? If movies had the option for a leather binder i would pay the extra for them.

why would that be funny? I do the same for books, many i have reread far fewer times then i re watch my movies.

I have tons of lithographs and original artwork WHY? I could just get a JPG of the picture vastly cheaper.

But people do not see VALUE unless a object has a material form, this may not seam rational but downloads will alway feel worth less then a physical item.

This is the reason people have no problem downloading a movie from bittorent but will FEEL stealing a DVD from a store is wrong.

It is? How do you figure that?

DVD pressing machines can output about 120 discs per minute. That is 2 per second..

I already answered that. See my posting (article #63 in this thread)
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12808023#post12808023

Even in very large mass production like million units, large ROM memory (like 8GB) can not be produced in cost range of DVD cost or $1-2. It also has very stiff initial set-up cost and long lead time for mask preparation so that is is totally not suitable for low volume production.
ROM technology itself is not so cost-effective any more due to declining industrial/consumer demand and lower volume of ROM production. There is practically no new demand or production of ROM as of 2007. It is dead technology now.

ROM chips can easily be cheaply mass produced. Yea, today it might be an $8 chip, but remember, today HD movies sell for $30. As the volume increases, $1 to $2 chip prices could easily support DVD-like price levels.

Mask preparation takes only hours. I am not sure why you consider that a long lead time.

And if HD movies used SS technologies, I doubt it would have much of a declining demand problem.

If youre talking strickly about rental operations. Then theres no use since VOD is so much more convenient.

And about these video kiosks, how much would they cost? I cant imagine a large chain like Best Buy putting in a 15 thousand dollar machine let alone your local blockbuster.
I am not talking about download in kiosk, but ready-made SS media. I said that downloading in kiosk can not be major outlet. It would be just fringe fancy attraction. In my opinion, kiosk is not needed. It can be just optional promotional display station to help customer to preview and select movies to rent.

I don't think that VOD is more convenient or cost-effective than physical solid-state media. Yes, download can save round trip to nearest video shop. But it takes lots of network bandwidth, expensive infrastructure investment, and expensive premium Internet service and is available only to small part of whole U.S. consumer home.

See this posting ( article #58 in this thread ) http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12807056#post12807056. This is candid voice of real customer/consumer of VOD/downloading. It shatters prevailing myth that VOD and Internet downloading is more convenient than physical media. I agree with most of his opinion.

I guess people don't understand the concept of a solid state drive and a kiosk so I'll explain it with an analogy.

Neflix is a kiosk. They have kiosks (distribution centers) in many cities. When you order a movie they mail from their mass storage device (warehouse) to your home player. When your done you talk the movie disc back to the mailbox and get another one.

A solid state drive works the same. You walk to a kiosk (mass storage device/server) and download a 50G movie in 10-20 seconds that you select from a screen. You take it home and plug into your player and play. When your done you walk you solid state drive back to the kiosk for another movie.

Nothing prevents you from buying 2 or 20 solid state transport drives. McDonalds has DVD kiosks now. Tomorrow they may very well be solid state drives.

How do you order pictures from your digital camera? You take you solid state memory to a kiosk and select to print. Same thing.


I put portable media like flash drives in the back of my brain due to the HD format war. I think downloads are the future, but this maybe the key, pun intended. The future is smaller and faster but also better. Smaller and faster doesn't have to mean crappy PQ like it does now.

You nailed it. I like. :)

I want to fit a movie on a credit card and carry it in my wallet. http://www.engadget.com/2005/06/10/optware-holographic-versatile-card-30gb-on-a-credit-card/ I want to be able to store these movies on my media server to watch it when I want. And I want to own my movies; I don't rent.

The compelling thing about SS movies is it could make the format wars of the future about software rather than hardware. Upgrading to HDM-NG could be a patch upgrade.

ROM chips can easily be cheaply mass produced. Yea, today it might be an $8 chip, but remember, today HD movies sell for $30. As the volume increases, $1 to $2 chip prices could easily support DVD-like price levels.

Mask preparation takes only hours. I am not sure why you consider that a long lead time.

And if HD movies used SS technologies, I doubt it would have much of a declining demand problem.

You seems to be not so familiar with semiconductor production process. Semiconductor factory (foundary) takes few days or even weeks to make a chip. It undergoes multiple step which is scheduled carefully for each run. It has very long turn around time. Even in small-volume /fast-run foundary, it takes 2-3 weeks to get a custom chip you ordered to make.
Moreover, most of large capacity ROM/memory foundaries are located outside of U.S, like East Asia. US. company like intel don't make cheap chip like ROM. You have to ship the chips to US via air transport, then distribute them over whole US continent. What a distribution cost!.

ROM is not cost-effective mean of distributing movie compared to on-site flash memory replication.

What I was getting at was that I don't think it will be cost-effective compared to discs. Until it gets to the point where it costs 50 cents or less per unit, I doubt they'll want to switch to SS when it's still more expensive and there is no compelling reason to do so.

I don't think they would go to smaller packaging, as it would raise concerns about theft. Retailers may have to lock up their movies or put them in protective shells that negate the benefit of smaller cases.

What I was getting at was that I don't think it will be cost-effective compared to discs. Until it gets to the point where it costs 50 cents or less per unit, I doubt they'll want to switch to SS when it's still more expensive and there is no compelling reason to do so.

I don't think they would go to smaller packaging, as it would raise concerns about theft. Retailers may have to lock up their movies or put them in protective shells that negate the benefit of smaller cases.

Not cost-effective for sell-through video sales. But solid-state memory is already cost-effective for rental video operation. It costs less than conventional DVD video.

well not solid state memory but nistead solid state device.

64GB worth of SSD on the MacBook Air :o

Announced today at Macworld 2008.

It takes the Price up from 1799 to 3099. Almost double the cost of the computer itself...........