I found this interesting. We get a kind of "intellegence" report everyday at work due to the industry I am in. Lot's of stuff we already know, but it is interesting to see the points that the Wall Street Journal focused on. For full disclosure, I am in the Red camp, but completely agree that the WB switch killed big red (or will eventually) as long as one of the other majors does not flip flop to the red side.


In Blu-ray Coup, Sony Has Opening But Hurdles, Too
The Wall Street Journal 01/07/2008
Authors: Sarah McBride and Yukari Iwatani Kane
(Copyright (c) 2008, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


Sony Corp.'s Blu-ray technology for high-definition DVDs has given the Japanese electronics giant an opportunity it hasn't had in 25 years: the chance to win a high-stakes format war and reap the benefits across its sprawling empire. However, its victory comes at a high cost and may be fleeting.

Sony on Friday scored a key win by luring Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. to its Blu-ray technology, putting itself in a position to triumph over Toshiba Corp.'s HD DVD after a years-long fight to become the standard for the next generation of DVDs.

However, Sony's push for Blu-ray -- which analysts estimate as an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars -- has cost the company in areas such as the key videogame market.

Many analysts believe that Sony's insistence on putting Blu-ray on its PlayStation 3 players gave it just enough extra consumers to help tilt next-generation DVD sales toward Blu-ray. Paul Erickson, analyst at the NPD Group's DisplaySearch research firm, calls it the "X factor" that "saved their Blu-ray fortunes." If Toshiba had underwritten the cost of putting HD DVD onto the rival Xbox 360 from Microsoft Corp., the reasoning goes, the battle might have swung another way.

But complications related to the Blu-ray technology played a part in repeated delays of the PlayStation 3 release, giving Microsoft's Xbox a full year in stores before the PlayStation 3 came out in November 2006. The PlayStation also had a heftier price tag than the Xbox. In the U.S., the Xbox 360 has outsold the PlayStation 3 more than 3-to-1 from the time the consoles have been on the market through November.

Even with major studios on board, Sony must still win over consumers to Blu-ray. Consumers were arguably better off with HD DVD technology, which generally cost less to produce, contributing to HD DVD players selling for as little as $99 over the holidays. Meanwhile, Blu-ray players cost about $300 and up -- and movie titles issued in Blu-ray are often sold for twice the cost of a regular DVD.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray offer similarly crisp resolution and have extra features, such as interactivity, that aren't available on regular DVDs.

Then there is the Internet. Sony is counting on sluggish development and slow consumer acceptance of technology that will allow for quick and easy downloads of movies at home, sending them directly to the TV set. If that snowballs faster than expected, Sony may never recoup the costs of its Blu-ray investments.

In any case, most home-entertainment chiefs see next-generation DVD as a temporary format that will last only as long as it takes for a superior technology to catch on. Most agree that while online movie distribution is still too clunky for the casual movie consumer, one day in the not too distant future it will dominate.

For now, Blu-ray gives Sony the rare chance to capitalize on being the creator of a market-dominating tech product -- a status it has rarely known in recent years. In the 1980s, its Betamax videotape format lost to VHS. It failed in an effort to get significant chunks of its technology into the highly lucrative DVD format. More recently, it was outflanked by Apple Inc.'s iPod in the drive to create personal digital music players.

The Warner Bros. move to exclusively issue high-definition movies in Blu-ray tips the balance toward Blu-ray, leaving HD DVD with just a 25% share of the video market, compared with nearly half previously, according to Adams Media Research.

Now Sony can earn money on patents in Blu-ray technology as other companies license it to include it in items ranging from DVDs to computers.

Moreover, Sony's vast reach across so many technology and content areas will likely help keep Blu-ray in the ascendant for some years, helping keep at bay rival technologies that might arise. Sony's purchase of CBS Records in 1988 and Columbia Pictures in 1989 was an effort to gain greater influence over the content businesses its technology served, in part to avoid another fiasco like its Betamax venture.

But the outcome of the high-definition DVD battle remained uncertain until the final days before the annual Consumer Electronics Show, kicking off now in Las Vegas, where both sides like to make big announcements concerning their formats. Toshiba was still working hard last week to court Warner and News Corp.'s Twentieth Century Fox to use HD DVD exclusively. Warner was considering it, people familiar with the matter say, but when it realized Fox wouldn't leave Blu-ray, decided to go with Blu-ray exclusively as well, to bring an end to the format war.

A Blu-ray win is important for Sony Chief Executive Howard Stringer, who made it part of his mission to beef up the content and software offerings in a notoriously hardware-centric company when he took the helm 2½ years ago. As Sony nears completion of a three-year turnaround plan, Mr. Stringer also told reporters in Tokyo last month that driving innovation would be his next goal.

Over the last couple of years, Mr. Stringer, a former movie executive, was involved in many discussions with studios Sony was courting, people familiar with the matter say.

Toshiba, which conceded Friday that the Warner Bros. move is a "setback," is expected to continue making its case for HD DVD, at least for awhile. Paramount Pictures, a unit of Viacom Inc., plans to continue to support the HD DVD format, a spokeswoman said yesterday. The other remaining Hollywood supporter, General Electric Co.'s Universal Pictures, declined to comment.

For Toshiba, its declining fortunes in DVD are a big blow to plans to expand its consumer-electronics business. It had long counted on HD DVD technology as a driving force behind the unit's future growth. Like many other consumer-electronics companies, its plan was to sell interconnected fully-digital electronics products, and HD DVD technology was meant to play a central role.

Now, Toshiba will have to focus more on other areas that can help broaden its consumer-electronic presence, such as technologies that copy movies directly onto USB flash drives. Those are tiny sticks that consumers can just plug into their computers, or in the future, directly into their TVs.

"You're going to see that hard drives and reusable flash are much more economical and green" compared to DVDs, says Warren Lieberfarb, a consultant to Toshiba and former head of home entertainment at Warner Bros. "You don't need packaging." He sees portable drives as an interim technology that will last the five or 10 years it takes for online movie distribution to rise to the fore.

And while Microsoft's decision to leave HD DVD out of its Xbox may have cost the format some crucial support, Microsoft's bet appears to have paid off for its games business.

The technical specifications for HD DVD weren't ready at the time Microsoft was gearing up to start manufacturing the Xbox 360 in 2005. The Redmond, Wash., company was determined to beat Sony to market with its game console by introducing the Xbox 360 in time for the 2005 holiday shopping; waiting for HD DVD to be ready would have eaten away at the company's head start on Sony.

Microsoft never seriously considered integrating a high definition disc format onto its player, says Albert Penello, director of global platform marketing for Xbox. The company didn't want to force gamers to "pay for something they may never use," he says.

I've always agreed with that last sentence. I liked the fact that MS never forced gamers into the format war.

I've always agreed with that last sentence. I liked the fact that MS never forced gamers into the format war.

That would be the first time I've heard Microsoft not wanting to force something on consumers. ;)

Universal's refusing to comment doesn't sound good for Toshiba.

Great article. It confirms that Warner was thinking of going HD DVD first.

It mentions that "Most agree that while online movie distribution is still too clunky for the casual movie consumer, one day in the not too distant future it will dominate."

And it mentions how Sony gave away the video game market...The first story I saw on CES said nothing about the format war, but did mention that the PS3 was soundly beaten 3:1 by the Wii in Japan last month. Japan is their last hope because the 360 doesn't sell there.

MS is waiting. THey have something up their sleeve. Most likely a digital download service. They sit back and watch these two formats duke it out while they release a patch that allows billions of Windows Desktops the ability to queue up movies at the click of a mouse.

The article is interesting in it acknowledges the fact digital downloads will play a factor in this format war and these two technologies may just be transitionary over the long term.

That would be the first time I've heard Microsoft not wanting to force something on consumers. ;)

Then you haven't been paying attention to Microsoft for a long time.;)

Great article. It confirms that Warner was thinking of going HD DVD first.

It mentions that "Most agree that while online movie distribution is still too clunky for the casual movie consumer, one day in the not too distant future it will dominate."

And it mentions how Sony gave away the video game market...The first story I saw on CES said nothing about the format war, but did mention that the PS3 was soundly beaten 3:1 by the Wii in Japan last month. Japan is their last hope because the 360 doesn't sell there.

I agree. Good summary.

And it confirms what insiders here are saying that Toshiba not being able to bring Fox on board convinced Warner to flip.

Had MS built a version of the XBox 360 including an HD DVD player--at a slight premium in cost--I think the format war would have gone the other way.

Now, MS will find itself incorporating a Blu-ray drive into the XBox next year in order to compete with the PS3 and the Wii. My prediction.

MS is waiting. THey have something up their sleeve. Most likely a digital download service. They sit back and watch these two formats duke it out while they release a patch that allows billions of Windows Desktops the ability to queue up movies at the click of a mouse.

The article is interesting in it acknowledges the fact digital downloads will play a factor in this format war and these two technologies may just be transitionary over the long term.

If they can do a Video Marketplace through Windows similar to what they do own Xbox Live and allow for purchases, that would a HUGE step for digital downloads.

I'm sure someone in Redmond has thought of that.

MS is waiting. THey have something up their sleeve. Most likely a digital download service. They sit back and watch these two formats duke it out while they release a patch that allows billions of Windows Desktops the ability to queue up movies at the click of a mouse.

The article is interesting in it acknowledges the fact digital downloads will play a factor in this format war and these two technologies may just be transitionary over the long term.
iTunes/Amazon/Rhapsody/eMusic/etc. allow people to buy music with the click of a mouse.

All of that convenience amounts to 10% of music sales. 90% of music sales are still dominated by physical media sales.

If you're waiting for digital movie downloads to take over, you'll be waiting for a LONG time. ;)

it would have been interesting to see sony produce bd players by itself and see how it did

And it mentions how Sony gave away the video game market...The first story I saw on CES said nothing about the format war, but did mention that the PS3 was soundly beaten 3:1 by the Wii in Japan last month. Japan is their last hope because the 360 doesn't sell there.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

Had MS built a version of the XBox 360 including an HD DVD player--at a slight premium in cost--I think the format war would have gone the other way.

Now, MS will find itself incorporating a Blu-ray drive into the XBox next year in order to compete with the PS3 and the Wii. My prediction.

Waste of time and money. First they'd have to pay royalties to Sony for it. It would likely cost more than the HD DVD addon, and it has nothing to do with competing with the Wii or PS3 which they're already doing a bang up job of doing thanks to an immensely strong gaming library.

Not to mention the money would be better spent on growing out Video Marketplace where MS already enjoys a huge amount support from the Hollywood studios.

HDM downloads might be happening sooner than you can imagine.

Analog tv channels will be switched of in the near future. That opens up a ton of bandwidth straight into a lot of homes. Most of the infrastructure is already available.

iTunes/Amazon/Rhapsody/eMusic/etc. allow people to buy music with the click of a mouse.

All of that convenience amounts to 10% of music sales. 90% of music sales are still dominated by physical media sales.

If you're waiting for digital movie downloads to take over, you'll be waiting for a LONG time. ;)

Well I havent really looked into the music side of the business. Is that 90% of the units or 90% of the revenue? One thing MP3s does is cut down on overall revenues as people buy 1-2 songs per albumn for a few bucks vs 12-18 bucks for the entire thing.

Be interesting to see how a movie service would do given the right setup. Integrating it within Windows would probably give MS a huge leg up in that new market.

Universal's refusing to comment doesn't sound good for Toshiba.

Yes. BDA press conference is this evening.

Losing Universal, even to format neutrality would stomp out even the tiniest spark of hope left for HD DVD.

Integrating it within Windows would probably give MS a huge leg up in that new market.
Because everyone loves the convenience of watching movies huddled around their computer monitor?

Or because they love the convenience of hooking up their computer to their TV?

And strictly speaking of HDM, do people enjoy waiting hours for low-bitrate HDM with basic surround (and no special features) to buffer before they can start watching?

We haven't even touched on high speed broadband availability in the US. Or DRM; limited portability of downloaded content.

The hurdles for digital downloads and numerous. But people have been buying physical media and inserting it into stand-alone players for decades (cassette, CD, VHS, DVD, etc.).

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

Console sales are meaningless. No one makes money on consoles. The money is in game licensing, and Microsoft rules the market in this area. Sony has very few exclusive licenses for the PS3.

Great article. It confirms that Warner was thinking of going HD DVD first.

It mentions that "Most agree that while online movie distribution is still too clunky for the casual movie consumer, one day in the not too distant future it will dominate."

And it mentions how Sony gave away the video game market...The first story I saw on CES said nothing about the format war, but did mention that the PS3 was soundly beaten 3:1 by the Wii in Japan last month. Japan is their last hope because the 360 doesn't sell there.


Quote "Warner was considering it, people familiar with the matter say"

that's your confirmation?

I walked on the moon with Elvis people familiar with my situation say.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

Worldwide, the PS3 still trails the 360 and doesn't appear ready to change that anytime soon.

In North America, according to the NPD the PS3 hasn't had a single month ahead of the 360 or Wii and had an embarrasing holiday season. North America is also a rather huge market compared to the rest of the world.

In Japan, while the PS3 is of course leading the 360, homecourt advantage being what it is, it's having a hell of a fight with the Wii.

In other words, the console isn't quite giving the performance you're leading on.

Because everyone loves the convenience of watching movies huddled around their computer monitor?

Or because they love the convenience of hooking up their computer to their TV?

And strictly speaking of HDM, do people enjoy waiting hours for low-bitrate HDM with basic surround (and no special features) to buffer before they can start watching?

Stop thinking in todays technology.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

So it spiked a bit during the holidays.

Sales to date and it's still half a lap behind in 3rd place.

Because everyone loves the convenience of watching movies huddled around their computer monitor?

Or because they love the convenience of hooking up their computer to their TV?

And strictly speaking of HDM, do people enjoy waiting hours for low-bitrate HDM with basic surround (and no special features) to buffer before they can start watching?

Working for one of the largest cable companies in the US, I can tell you they enjoy HD On Demand. And when the day comes when they can purchase using On Demand instead of just renting they'll enjoy that too. That day is likely coming.

It's just a matter of when the Hollywood studios are ready.

Stop thinking in todays technology.
So we're predicting that unknown technology, with unknown issues, and unknown pricing, coming out years from now, will beat an already established Blu-Ray format that will have cheaper players and media by then?

Working for one of the largest cable companies in the US, I can tell you they enjoy HD On Demand. And when the day comes when they can purchase using On Demand instead of just renting they'll enjoy that too. That day is likely coming.
I have HD VOD through cable, and I have not rented a single title. I do enjoy the "free" HD content they make available. If they make titles available for purchase, I won't buy a single one.

What's the point? I would have to download my purchase onto a set-top box owned by the cable-company, with limited storage capacity. DRM would prevent me from copying and playing my purchase on other devices in other locations. What happens when I cancel my service or switch to another provider? No special features will be available. Basic surround sound. Low bit-rate video. And the pricing is going to be roughly the same as physical media.

Because everyone loves the convenience of watching movies huddled around their computer monitor?

Or because they love the convenience of hooking up their computer to their TV?

And strictly speaking of HDM, do people enjoy waiting hours for low-bitrate HDM with basic surround (and no special features) to buffer before they can start watching?

We haven't even touched on high speed broadband availability in the US. Or DRM; limited portability of downloaded content.

The hurdles for digital downloads and numerous. But people have been buying physical media and inserting it into stand-alone players for decades (cassette, CD, VHS, DVD, etc.).


It doesnt have to be a PC that handles to service. A simple device can provide an interface and storage for the movies. People did the same for music. I have seen the numbers pointing to 10-20% of music is now downloaded vs bought on physical media. This happened in a few short years.

So we're predicting that unknown technology, with unknown issues, and unknown pricing, coming out years from now, will beat an already established Blu-Ray format that will have cheaper players and media by then?

Unknown to you, but something companies like Microsoft and Cisco have been dumping R&D dollars in for years. The studios are already on board. They're just waiting for the right combination of compression, delivery, and bandwidth to really put this format war to an end.

So we're predicting that unknown technology, with unknown issues, and unknown pricing, coming out years from now, will beat an already established Blu-Ray format that will have cheaper players and media by then?

Given that downloads would effectively work with computers already on the market and could also use VOD services that already have capable settops boxes in the home thanks to MSOs (cable/sat/fiber), yes it can be predicted that shortly within the next couple of years Blu-ray will already face its replacement with downloads.

In fact most major Hollywood Studios have predicted it and have been investing into downloads.

It would have been no different with HD DVD being the winning format.

It doesnt have to be a PC that handles to service. A simple device can provide an interface and storage for the movies. People did the same for music. I have seen the numbers pointing to 10-20% of music is now downloaded vs bought on physical media. This happened in a few short years.
It's about 10% (50 million downloaded albums vs. 500 million physical albums).

To get that 10%, music had the iPod (with iTunes taking a lion's share of downloaded audio). Video has no such device now, and no such device on the horizon. The iPod/iTunes took years to take audio to the 10% level; once a video device is introduced, with the convenience and appeal of the iPod, it will take years to reach the same levels vs. physical media.

Also, the music industry has largely moved to portable devices. The video industry has not. Downloading an iTunes song in a few seconds to your iPod has more appeal than downloading an HDM movie in a few hours to watch on your TV.

In fact most major Hollywood Studios have predicted it and have been investing into downloads.
Wal-Mart's movie download store...closed. WB's movie download service...scrapped. Amazon Unbox...flop.

iTunes is a moderate success with video downloads, but only for the iPod market; doesn't affect HDM.

Looks like more services have shut-down than popped-up.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

Considering Microsoft doesn't sell well in JAPAN where anything PLAYSTATION is GOLD just inflates those WORLDWIDE #'s. If was selling like hotcakes as you suggest, why was it the 1st console in gaming history to cut it's initial price within the 1st year?

Dont be a forward thinker, fine by me. But dont be surprised in 5 years if such a service is successful.

The movie industry doesnt want to get caught with its pants down like the music industry did in the late 90s.

They're just waiting for the right combination of compression, delivery, and bandwidth to really put this format war to an end.
Just like the record companies have embraced digital audio delivery and captured a whopping 10% of the music market?

Like I said, you'll be waiting for a long time before that "combination" is even ready, let alone having digital downloads capture any significant portion of the video market. We'll have $99 Blu-Ray players and $10 movies by then.

Dont be a forward thinker, fine by me. But dont be surprised in 5 years if such a service is successful.

The movie industry doesnt want to get caught with its pants down like the music industry did in the late 90s.
DVD-quality VOD has been available for a couple of years now; why hasn't that taken off?

Why would you expect HD-quality VOD to do any better?

HDM downloads might be happening sooner than you can imagine.

Analog tv channels will be switched of in the near future. That opens up a ton of bandwidth straight into a lot of homes. Most of the infrastructure is already available.
Yes.
Everyone has 100mb bandwidth internet access. :rolleyes:

I wonder how Netzero stays in business. :)

There isn't enough bandwidth for digital movie downloads for at least a few years. A lot of the advertised available bandwidth is oversold and over provisioned. As soon as people actually go anywhere near the advertised bandwidth and things will get real slow or stop.
It's like if everyone went to the bank to get all their money at the same time.

And even if you are covered locally, you still have to take into account the internet infrastructure, the ROOT servers and devices that will be seeing several times more the traffic they currently withstand.

I suspect HDM has plenty of time to become mainstream (as long as there is no format war).

Given that downloads would effectively work with computers already on the market and could also use VOD services that already have capable settops boxes in the home thanks to MSOs (cable/sat/fiber), yes it can be predicted that shortly within the next couple of years Blu-ray will already face its replacement with downloads.

In fact most major Hollywood Studios have predicted it and have been investing into downloads.

It would have been no different with HD DVD being the winning format.

So you expect people to be able to download movies to their car, portable players, etc in the next few years? Music is 100 times easier to implement than video, but digital distribution is still accounts for less than 10% of all music sales.

I still think that digital downloads are great for renting and optical disks are great for archiving. So, for collectors, do the optical. For renters, do the download.

If they can do a Video Marketplace through Windows similar to what they do own Xbox Live and allow for purchases, that would a HUGE step for digital downloads.

I'm sure someone in Redmond has thought of that.

Only if your televisions start running Windows.

I doubt you're going to see the averge family packed into the office hunched around a 22" Monitor trying to watch the latest movie in Hi-Def. Microsoft knows this, and that's why they created the Xbox. They need to get into the living room of the average family and they can't do it through a personal computer.

So you expect people to be able to download movies to their car, portable players, etc in the next few years? Music is 100 times easier to implement than video, but digital distribution is still accounts for less than 10% of all music sales.

In car blu ray players are science fiction too.
Any announceed yet?
BDA is very silent about BR players in cars.

Just like the record companies have embraced digital audio delivery and captured a whopping 10% of the music market?

Like I said, you'll be waiting for a long time before that "combination" is even ready, let alone having digital downloads capture any significant portion of the video market. We'll have $99 Blu-Ray players and $10 movies by then.

The record companies haven't quite figured out delivery yet and if you look at per song sales instead of albums (something else they haven't figured out :rolleyes:) it's a lot higher than 10%.

The service most likely will not be on-demand, or streaming, but a queued download. Think of it like Netflix only instead of delivery in the mail, it's downloaded to a set-top box. No damaged discs, no inventory shortage. You may even be able to choose the resolution and audio in case you don't need 1080p and TrueHD. Plus, when video goes to 4k or THX decides we need 20 channels of audio, you're not tied to an optical format that cannot store it. You just upgrade your set-top to handle the new formats.

Yes.
Everyone has 100mb bandwidth internet access. :rolleyes:

I wonder how Netzero stays in business. :)

I guess you've never been to Europe then.

In car blu ray players are science fiction too.
Any announceed yet?
BDA is very silent about BR players in cars.

I can watch blu ray in my car today.

http://www.dell.com/content/products/productdetails.aspx/xpsnb_m1710?c=us&l=en&s=dhs&cs=19

When the analog switch comes about, and coupled with the advent of switched digital cable, the major cableco's will have a ton of bandwidth to serve up video downloads and such fancy fare. This is the future. Mark my words. The paradigm shift in the way TV content is delivered to the users is almost upon us, and it will bring with it increased ease of downloads.

I think 2010-12 would be watershed years for content owners and delivery providers.

Digital downloads of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD quality with all soundtracks etc are a LONG ways away. I have a 10meg pipe via cable modem to Comast and that still is not fast enough for something like that. If they stream, you need fiber. If you download and then watch you will need terabytes of disk just to have a small library of full resoltion movies. Trust me, this technology is at least 8 to 10 years away from now... Minimum.

The record companies want to charge the same money for MP3s as they do for Compact Discs.

With no production and no middleman I just can't stomach paying that.

If the price is the same (or close) I will still buy the CD. If we talk 50% less for digital delivery I'm game.

I guess you've never been to Europe then.

This isn't europe. Other than a few major cities most of america is pretty damn poor.

If the numerous reports are correct about Sony paying $500 mill or more to Warner and also paid off Fox, then Sony paid way too much IMHO. What are they going to do when usb thumb drives and/or sd media have the capacity to hold hi-def movies and are really cheap? It's not as far off as one might think.

Wal-Mart's movie download store...closed. WB's movie download service...scrapped. Amazon Unbox...flop.

iTunes is a moderate success with video downloads, but only for the iPod market; doesn't affect HDM.

Looks like more services have shut-down than popped-up.

Xbox Live Video Marketplace...still alive and while.

On Demand HD rentals, alive and well among MSOs (cable/fiber)

This isn't anti Blu-ray FUD, digital downloads are coming and Hollywood studios are investing time and money into seeing it work. Xbox Live for one has most Hollywood studios onboard except for Sony of course. It will happen, and most in the video business acknowledge it's coming soon, as in within the next few years.

iceperson,

You dont have kids do you. A computer in the car is no where near the same as the in dash DVD player to screens in the back seat.

Sorry, but your solution is not particularly viable.

I find everyone's insistence that video downloads arent viable, etc., very reminiscient of what the music industry said 10 or so years ago.

Furthermore, in spite of p0temkin's dismissal, dont forget that iTunes sells more movies and TV shows than both formats combined, suggesting that it is possible, and that people will do it.

There isn't enough bandwidth for digital movie downloads for at least a few years. A lot of the advertised available bandwidth is oversold and over provisioned. As soon as people actually go anywhere near the advertised bandwidth and things will get real slow or stop.
It's like if everyone went to the bank to get all their money at the same time.

And even if you are covered locally, you still have to take into account the internet infrastructure, the ROOT servers and devices that will be seeing several times more the traffic they currently withstand.

I suspect HDM has plenty of time to become mainstream (as long as there is no format war).

There is already enough bandwidth for HD channels currently downloaded into peoples homes at real time speed.
There is no reason why HD VOD should not be available in the near future.
All it takes is a provider bringing a conveniant and afforable solution.

That can easily penetrate 10% of homes in the near future.

I can watch blu ray in my car today.

http://www.dell.com/content/products/productdetails.aspx/xpsnb_m1710?c=us&l=en&s=dhs&cs=19

Starting price $2300 and as soon the kids get hold of that machine they start gaming. :)

Digital downloads of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD quality with all soundtracks etc are a LONG ways away. I have a 10meg pipe via cable modem to Comast and that still is not fast enough for something like that. If they stream, you need fiber. If you download and then watch you will need terabytes of disk just to have a small library of full resoltion movies. Trust me, this technology is at least 8 to 10 years away from now... Minimum.

There are already compression and delivery technologies to minimize download size. The only variable is bandwidth versus time-to-wait. Streaming is not possible for true HD quality, but downloading will be possible. Keeping multiple releases long term would require flash or optical media for storage with the necessary DRM, but certainly an easy solution.

There is already enough bandwidth for HD channels currently downloaded into peoples homes at real time speed.
There is no reason why HD VOD should not be available in the near future.
All it takes is a provider bringing a conveniant and afforable solution.

That can easily penetrate 10% of homes in the near future.

FYI. Comcast already has HD VOD. I have been using it for several months now.

Only if your televisions start running Windows.

I doubt you're going to see the averge family packed into the office hunched around a 22" Monitor trying to watch the latest movie in Hi-Def. Microsoft knows this, and that's why they created the Xbox. They need to get into the living room of the average family and they can't do it through a personal computer.

If you keep up with CE buzz there has been talk of beginning to offer TVs in the future that have wireless connectivity built in, and even some prototypes being worked on now that can stream HD.

Not to mention Microsoft is building delivery experience through Video Marketplace. They've been working with MSOs to get an IPTV offering off the ground. Once they have that, the software won't likely be far behind.

I love HD on disc as many do, but the sights and money of Hollywood and both software and hardware manufacturers are on making downloads ready sooner than later and there are successful precedents in place that show it can work.

FYI. Comcast already has HD VOD. I have been using it for several months now.

As I have I. RoboCop and RoboCop II have been available in HD to watch free for the last 2 months.

Wal-Mart's movie download store...closed. WB's movie download service...scrapped. Amazon Unbox...flop.

iTunes is a moderate success with video downloads, but only for the iPod market; doesn't affect HDM.

Looks like more services have shut-down than popped-up.

Just like etoys, and all the failed on-line retailers. Yeah, that will never catch on.

Okay, we'll start a HD VOD vs. Blu-Ray sales prediction thread for you guys.

For the week ending 1/11/2008, I think the ratio will be:

99.9 : 0.1

I'll also toss in my prediction for another 52-0 year for Blu-Ray vs. HD VOD.

FYI. Comcast already has HD VOD. I have been using it for several months now.

Yes and frequently, I get errors to try again later but then can watch the same movie in SD. :confused:

Hum.... maybe bandwidth is already taking a hit and HD VOD is just taking off.

FYI. Comcast already has HD VOD. I have been using it for several months now.

I think the context here is true VC-1/AVC type HD releases. Not the MPEG2/MP4 stuff you get with cable and satellite. There's to much compression with those formats.

iceperson,

You dont have kids do you. A computer in the car is no where near the same as the in dash DVD player to screens in the back seat.

Sorry, but your solution is not particularly viable.

I find everyone's insistence that video downloads arent viable, etc., very reminiscient of what the music industry said 10 or so years ago.

Furthermore, in spite of p0temkin's dismissal, dont forget that iTunes sells more movies and TV shows than both formats combined, suggesting that it is possible, and that people will do it.

Are you implying that portable Blu ray devices aren't coming? Either way it doesn't change the fact that people expect media to be portable now. Any download only model is doomed until it gives consumers the same benefits they see today.

HDM downloads might be happening sooner than you can imagine.

Analog tv channels will be switched of in the near future. That opens up a ton of bandwidth straight into a lot of homes. Most of the infrastructure is already available.
Unfortunately, the government has been waiting a long time to auction off that spectrum. There will be much competition for that bandwidth, so don't assume it will be available for downloads. We're talking billions of dollars!!


Ken Whitcomb

There are already compression and delivery technologies to minimize download size. The only variable is bandwidth versus time-to-wait. Streaming is not possible for true HD quality, but downloading will be possible. Keeping multiple releases long term would require flash or optical media for storage with the necessary DRM, but certainly an easy solution.

Compression = lower quality. Just like MP3. There just isn't any way around that at this point.

Time to wait for a download I can sympathize with because it's not like I have my DVDs ready to watch from the store or BlockBuster within minutes. However, I can go to a video store less than 1mi from my home and have it home in less than 20min. I doubt I will be downloading full length HD movies in 20min any time soon. The capacity to do something like that just isn't there and will not be for a very long time.

Library Storage.. Forget about it. Even if I had a terabyte of space, that still wouldn't be enough. Then, what happens if my hard drive crashes? I keep my PC in perfect working order and use it rarely, but my drive still went bad. Gone. All my data gone, and I don't see consumers backing up terabytes of data either. You suggested flash.. Sorry, but there just isn't enough capacity with 32gb being the largest now for around $200. You couldn't even store a single BR disc on that let alone an entire library. An optical solution is possible but in my mind is too cumbersome for the average consumer. Who wants to wait hours to download a movie, save it on their drive, then put a disc in, call up their burning software and then pray the software burns the disc correctly over the next hour or so. Not pretty. What's pretty is buying the disc and sticking in my player. Done.

Downloads will be here some day, but not anytime soon.

Starting price $2300 and as soon the kids get hold of that machine they start gaming. :)

The point is people are already starting to travel with blu ray media. Portable players are the next logical step (unless you're a fanboy it would seem and then logic seems to pass you by.)

FYI. Comcast already has HD VOD. I have been using it for several months now.

So have I. ZERO comparison in quality to a BR disc and no interactivity, no chapter skipping, poor audio, no lossless track selection, etc, etc, etc...

We're talking about downloading your own copy of a fully featured movie just like a BR disc you buy in the store.

Compression = lower quality. Just like MP3. There just isn't any way around that at this point.

Time to wait for a download I can sympathize with because it's not like I have my DVDs ready to watch from the store or BlockBuster within minutes. However, I can go to a video store less than 1mi from my home and have it home in less than 20min. I doubt I will be downloading full length HD movies in 20min any time soon. The capacity to do something like that just isn't there and will not be for a very long time.

Library Storage.. Forget about it. Even if I had a terabyte of space, that still wouldn't be enough. Then, what happens if my hard drive crashes? I keep my PC in perfect working order and use it rarely, but my drive still went bad. Gone. All my data gone, and I don't see consumers backing up terabytes of data either. You suggested flash.. Sorry, but there just isn't enough capacity with 32gb being the largest now for around $200. You couldn't even store a single BR disc on that let alone an entire library. An optical solution is possible but in my mind is too cumbersome for the average consumer. Who wants to wait hours to download a movie, save it on their drive, then put a disc in, call up their burning software and then pray the software burns the disc correctly over the next hour or so. Not pretty. What's pretty is buying the disc and sticking in my player. Done.

Downloads will be here some day, but not anytime soon.

You've never heard of lossless compression? When you zip a word document, do you not get all the letters back when you unzip it? Besides HDM formats already use VC-1 or AVC compression. Nothing new there.

Like I said earlier, you need to stop thinking in todays technology. I'm talking 2 to 3 years. DVD sales will keep optical HDM running in place for at least that long. Plus, this type of service is something that could easily be bundled with DVD players to help bring the technology into the home without obligating consumers.

Unfortunately, the government has been waiting a long time to auction off that spectrum. There will be much competition for that bandwidth, so don't assume it will be available for downloads. We're talking billions of dollars!!


Ken Whitcomb

A great opportunity for Microsoft to get tons of bandwidth in peoples homes at a bargain. :)

How can gouvernment auction the space that becomes available on privatly owned cable infrastructure?
If true I gues that some of that bandwidth will become available for HD downloads.

We will have to wait and see how that is going to take shape.

Working for one of the largest cable companies in the US, I can tell you they enjoy HD On Demand. And when the day comes when they can purchase using On Demand instead of just renting they'll enjoy that too. That day is likely coming.

It's just a matter of when the Hollywood studios are ready.

And the audio/video quality of these offerings are crap. Even if bitrate, etc, were doubled for VoD services they would still look like crap compared to what HD DVD and BD are capable of.

This is exactly why people who care about getting their movies in the best presentation possible need to get off the fence and support the one format with a chance of establishing itself as a format that gives the highest possible audio and video quality to collectors.

When I can get a downloaded movie with the same AQ/PQ as optical HDM then ring me back up. I expect it's 10 yrs away.

You've never heard of lossless compression? When you zip a word document, do you not get all the letters back when you unzip it? Besides HDM formats already use VC-1 or AVC compression. Nothing new there.

Like I said earlier, you need to stop thinking in todays technology. I'm talking 2 to 3 years. DVD sales will keep optical HDM running in place for at least that long. Plus, this type of service is something that could easily be bundled with DVD players to help bring the technology into the home without obligating consumers.

I agree 1,000%. In three years will all be watching streamed HD content in our self driving flying cars. Wee, this if fun!

You've never heard of lossless compression? When you zip a word document, do you not get all the letters back when you unzip it? Besides HDM formats already use VC-1 or AVC compression. Nothing new there.

Like I said earlier, you need to stop thinking in todays technology. I'm talking 2 to 3 years. DVD sales will keep optical HDM running in place for at least that long. Plus, this type of service is something that could easily be bundled with DVD players to help bring the technology into the home without obligating consumers.

I have. If the video were to be compressed anymore than it already is on a BR disc you will notice a degradation in VQ. We're not talking about word docs here, this is video. Not the same thing. However, if you're talking about uncompressing it before playback then you would obviously not lose that VQ. However, how long and how much processing power would it take to uncompress 50gig worth of video? I don't know, but I do know there will not be a chip in the home that can do it in less than 8 to 10 hours within 8 years.

I am thinking about tomorrow's technology and I still say it's a good 8 to 10 years away before being good enough to give consumers the same experience they are used to today.

Compression, quality, medium, etc...all of that doesn't matter because there are two gaping holes.

Bandwidth and storage. Not enough of either for at least 8 years. If it happens sooner I can't wait but I have serious doubts.

I agree 1,000%. In three years will all be watching streamed HD content in our self driving flying cars. Wee, this if fun!
+1

Agreed 100%. The grass is always greener in the future. Especially when you're trying to take the wind out of Blu-Ray's victory in the format war.

The only solution for someone who is looking for quality HDM content today, this year, or next year (not 2-3 years from now) is Blu-Ray.
Dude, you changed my post. I never said that.

And the audio/video quality of these offerings are crap. Even if bitrate, etc, were doubled for VoD services they would still look like crap compared to what HD DVD and BD are capable of.

This is exactly why people who care about getting their movies in the best presentation possible need to get off the fence and support the one format with a chance of establishing itself as a format that gives the highest possible audio and video quality to collectors.

When I can get a downloaded movie with the same AQ/PQ as optical HDM then ring me back up. I expect it's 10 yrs away.

AMEN!

I have. If the video were to be compressed anymore than it already is on a BR disc you will notice a degradation in VQ. We're not talking about word docs here, this is video. Not the same thing. However, if you're talking about uncompressing it before playback then you would obviously not lose that VQ. However, how long and how much processing power would it take to uncompress 50gig worth of video? I don't know, but I do know there will not be a chip in the home that can do it in less than 8 to 10 hours within 8 years.

I am thinking about tomorrow's technology and I still say it's a good 8 to 10 years away before being good enough to give consumers the same experience they are used to today.

Compression, quality, medium, etc...all of that doesn't matter because there are two gaping holes.

Bandwidth and storage. Not enough of either for at least 8 years. If it happens sooner I can't wait but I have serious doubts.

Lossless compression has no degradation, hence the term lossless.

It would be decompressed on the fly no different than the HDM players do now reading the compressed data off of the optical disc. Again this is not a new concept. The only variable left is bandwidth and that's just a matter of time. Particularly outside of the US where 100Mb to the home is not all that uncommon.

+1

Agreed 100%. The grass is always greener in the future. Especially when you're trying to take the wind out of Blu-Ray's victory in the format war.

Funny how the fanboys can't think in terms 2 to 3 years from now, but they think the format war is over. Funny logic there. :D

I say invest in Sony now. Also invest in any fiber optic cable company as downloading with be the future. But if Sony owns the blu-ray spec, and blu-ray does what dvd does, invest now and get a nice gain for 15 years, then sell your stock and keep your fiber optic stock.

DVD-quality VOD has been available for a couple of years now; why hasn't that taken off?

Why would you expect HD-quality VOD to do any better?
It has steadily grown, but then to realize that you'd need to actually take an objective look at the situation.

Consumers have gotten used to media by mail & by using the remote, DVRs continue to gain in popularity = flagging sales for media while the other forms grow. The fantasy is that the consumer who is buying fewer DVDs will suddenly start buying media because it's HD............it's a shrinking market.

Lossless compression has no degradation, hence the term lossless.

It would be decompressed on the fly no different than the HDM players do now reading the compressed data off of the optical disc. Again this is not a new concept. The only variable left is bandwidth and that's just a matter of time. Particularly outside of the US where 100Mb to the home is not all that uncommon.

Ok, gotcha on the compression thing. However, a BR disc is about 40gb of compressed video. It is then uncompressed as the movie plays right? Either way, we're still downloading 40 and 50gb movies. Compression is no help.

Bandwidth is an issue as you mentioned. Don't forget about storage... If they could get the DVD player to burn the disc for you without intervention then that would be a huge help.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

I'd suggest you do your own research, the only place that tries to report on worldwide console sales is VG Chartz which is run by 2, 19 year olds that every month adjust their guesses based off partial data they collect or just flat out guess. There is a reason that site is completely discredited and banned from being talked about on most major gaming sites.

The problem with Worldwide Console sales is ONLY North America and Japan actually track monthly console sales. The rest of the world has no official monthly count for console sales.

So their is no legitimate factual way anyone can say for sure who is outselling who on a worldwide basis.

All you can reliably go by is monthly sales for North America and Japan. Anything else is a complete guess.

The only solution for someone who is looking for quality HDM content today, this year, or next year (not 2-3 years from now) is Blu-Ray.

There's a lot of quality in downloads "today". Much better than the DVD's everyones been watching. That's plenty good for most people. How many people do you think own uber sound systems that can take advantage of lossless audio.
Most people are buying or own 32 inch lcd 720P televisions. What do they need 1080p for? Look at the Tier thread in the blu ray software forum. There's a lot of movies there that have been put out on blu ray that are only as good as dvd or only slightly better.

I say invest in Sony now. Also invest in any fiber optic cable company as downloading with be the future. But if Sony owns the blu-ray spec, and blu-ray does what dvd does, invest now and get a nice gain for 15 years, then sell your stock and keep your fiber optic stock.

Blu-ray may be nominally successfull. Hell, I still buy SACDs and that was a bust, but I wouldn't invest in Sony if you gave me the money to do it.

Are you implying that portable Blu ray devices aren't coming? Either way it doesn't change the fact that people expect media to be portable now. Any download only model is doomed until it gives consumers the same benefits they see today.

Portable Blu-Ray devices... see that's where it gets weird. There is no point to portable Blu-Ray since it's biggest benefit is over DVD is that it's HD. 7" screen needs to be HD? :o I think this is a market better for download & go type tech.

(/off topic)

Blu-ray may be nominally successfull. Hell, I still buy SACDs and that was a bust, but I wouldn't invest in Sony if you gave me the money to do it.


SACDs were a tough sell, but as most people will own HDTVs in the comming years, and downloading for the masses of movies is not there yet, I say Sony may have a nice little monopoly on HDM for the masses for 10-15 years. Why not invest now.

Portable Blu-Ray devices... see that's where it gets weird. There is no point to portable Blu-Ray since it's biggest benefit is over DVD is that it's HD. 7" screen needs to be HD? :o I think this is a market better for download & go type tech.

(/off topic)

If they can put an entire Season of Lost at SD on a 100 GB quad-layer Blu-Ray disk then I'll bite and probably get a portable player for those long trips to East Asia or Europe. :D

I'd suggest you do your own research, the only place that tries to report on worldwide console sales is VG Chartz which is run by 2, 19 year olds that every month adjust their guesses based off partial data they collect or just flat out guess. There is a reason that site is completely discredited and banned from being talked about on most major gaming sites.
You mean as opposed to the data from an organization that doesn't include the company that sells 40% of ALL DVDs in the country - now that's gospel.

Point is data can be spun whatever way you want - what ever you'd like to see.

Portable Blu-Ray devices... see that's where it gets weird. There is no point to portable Blu-Ray since it's biggest benefit is over DVD is that it's HD. 7" screen needs to be HD? :o I think this is a market better for download & go type tech.

(/off topic)

Yep, it's seems insane. But some people expect that their expensive disc plays in other players outside the livingroom too.

You mean as opposed to the data from an organization that doesn't include the company that sells 40% of ALL DVDs in the country - now that's gospel.Well, in the HDM world, that company sells less than 20% of discs.
Point is data can be spun whatever way you want - what ever you'd like to see.Yes. I can see how you tried to do that.
Yep, it's seems insane. But some people expect that their expensive disc plays in other players outside the livingroom too.Well, I guess HD DVD doesn't care about that, since they're actively getting rid of combo discs, even on day-and-date titles, and have stopped announcing Twin Format discs.

Yep, it's seems insane. But some people expect that their expensive disc plays in other players outside the livingroom too.

Yeah, I hear that... But I think that's just one more reason people won't move on from DVD. "So I have to buy this player for the living room and all my movies over again... and they won't play in my SUV's DVD player for the kids...or the portable DVD player? I didn't know that!" :p

In car blu ray players are science fiction too.
Any announceed yet?
BDA is very silent about BR players in cars.

And until this starts happening, many people will stay with DVD. I have a portable player and a player built in my SUV as well as a player in every bedroom. Until I can watch a BD in all of those areas (economically), I will be forced to either buy the SD DVD and rent the BD, or double dip, which I am not planning to do except on the really big releases that are "must own".

Well, in the HDM world, that company sells less than 20% of discs.
Yes. I can see how you tried to do that.
Reading comprehension - I didn't spin anything. Data isn't complete & data can be spun however you want. Matters little to me which way you want to spin it.

You mean as opposed to the data from an organization that doesn't include the company that sells 40% of ALL DVDs in the country - now that's gospel.

Point is data can be spun whatever way you want - what ever you'd like to see.

My point is there is no official worldwide monthly sales data for console sales. So anyone trying to claim console X outsold console Y last month on a world wide basis is either lying, or getting their data from someone who is lying or just plain guessing.

My point is there is no official worldwide monthly sales data for console sales. So anyone trying to claim console X outsold console Y last month on a world wide basis is either lying, or getting their data from someone who is lying or just plain guessing.
I agree - my only point was that getting caught up in numbers doesn't get one anywhere.

Unfortunately, the government has been waiting a long time to auction off that spectrum. There will be much competition for that bandwidth, so don't assume it will be available for downloads. We're talking billions of dollars!!


Ken Whitcomb

And quite a few MSOs are considering purchase that spectrum to use for wireless internet and as a result free up a nice chunk of bandwidth.

MS is waiting. THey have something up their sleeve. Most likely a digital download service. They sit back and watch these two formats duke it out while they release a patch that allows billions of Windows Desktops the ability to queue up movies at the click of a mouse.

The article is interesting in it acknowledges the fact digital downloads will play a factor in this format war and these two technologies may just be transitionary over the long term.They sit back and watch these two formats duke it out... News flash!! The duking is over. Toshiba is down for the count. The HD-DVD partners are assessing whether to throw in the towel now or allow Toshiba to be continually puemmeled while it is in a stupor with no more energy to punch back or defend itself.

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

I said the PS3 was outsold by the 3:1 by the Wii in Japan for the month of December. Do you dispute that?
I also said "Japan is their last hope because the 360 doesn't sell there."

I noticed how you use worldwide numbers so as to include Japan, a market that boycotts the 360. When you take that out of the equation, the 360 is way ahead of the PS3 adjusting for launch dates. If you look at just the US, it is even worse.

If you compare the gamecube to the PS3 adjusting for launch dates, guess who wins! The freakin' gamecube!

And the audio/video quality of these offerings are crap. Even if bitrate, etc, were doubled for VoD services they would still look like crap compared to what HD DVD and BD are capable of.

This is exactly why people who care about getting their movies in the best presentation possible need to get off the fence and support the one format with a chance of establishing itself as a format that gives the highest possible audio and video quality to collectors.

When I can get a downloaded movie with the same AQ/PQ as optical HDM then ring me back up. I expect it's 10 yrs away.

I like the idea of HD discs, and that's why I bought HD DVD and will pick up a BD player once a final profile is available within my price range, but then again I also still buy CDs. My or your preference of AAA quality picture and audio for HD may not apply to the rest of the mass market, and Hollywood will go where the mass market is, disc or no disc.

BTW, MSOs are are moving toward using MPEG4 as we speak quality will increase over time. OTA HD already looks better than DVD.

I like the idea of HD discs, and that's why I bought HD DVD and will pick up a BD player once a final profile is available within my price range, but then again I also still buy CDs. My or your preference of AAA quality picture and audio for HD may not apply to the rest of the mass market, and Hollywood will go where the mass market is, disc or no disc.


But people still likes to pay for CDs apparently. Illegal downloading is still the most popular form of getting music and movies from the internet. :D

Please do some research before commenting.

Worldwide, the PS3 outsold the 360 in December, and the PS3 is ahead of the 360's sales curve adjusting for launch dates.

The myth that the PS3 'isn't selling' hasn't been true for some time, yet fanboys and the 'i read it one day so it must be true today' types still keep repeating this nonsense.

You can't just "adjust" for launch date. They started behind and have been getting furth and further behind every month.

As was posted earlier, in NA the PS3 has never once beaten 360 or Wii. They have lost significant exclusivity agreements and NOT ONLY FINISHED BEHIND the Wii and 360 but even the PS2 during the holiday season (thanksgiving through XMas).

The PS3 is a remarkable machine. I suspect what Sony was looking to do was to have a much longer arc where it would be relevant. I also think they bit off too much. Its also too expensive for a lot of families.

I like the idea of HD discs, and that's why I bought HD DVD and will pick up a BD player once a final profile is available within my price range, but then again I also still buy CDs. My or your preference of AAA quality picture and audio for HD may not apply to the rest of the mass market, and Hollywood will go where the mass market is, disc or no disc.

BTW, MSOs are are moving toward using MPEG4 as we speak quality will increase over time. OTA HD already looks better than DVD.

I too love my HD-DVD/BD discs. I just think the writings on the wall that neither of these formats are the future of HDM.

I too love my HD-DVD/BD discs. I just think the writings on the wall that neither of these formats are the future of HDM.

You could be right, but I have a feeling that the eventual winner is not yet on the playing field. I think that downloads will have a place, but ultimately, consumers will want something tangible for their money, especially if the price continues to escalate. $35.00 for a download key for a movie? I can't see it happening. $0.99 for one time use? Maybe.

I thought that HD-DVD was as close to a generic solution that was ready for mass-adoption that we had(have). And honestly, I think it would have won out in the end due to the cost structure, the name, and the features. Sony was very wise in buying their way to supremacy and probably the eventual win, but will consumers line up for it? I can't see it happening.

I don't know what the future brings, but I am reasonably sure that most of the consumers out there are not going to buy a product that is confusing, costly, and proprietary to one company. Remember, Sony needs to sell SD DVD's as well, so it will not get in to a price war with the costs of SD DVD's. So I see BR continuing much as it is today, but as the sole option. It will be niche.

When consumers just can't go another day without some HD movies to play on those new HDTV's they finally all have, I feel a new option will come to the market and will be what finally becomes the de-facto HD disc.

One thing is for sure, SONY will have to sell a TON of players and discs to try to get back some of the money it invested in this "war" You don't generate BILLIONS of dollars with BOGO's on Amazon and $99 players.

I actually think ending the war is the right thing to do, but I just don't think that the BR option will hit the big time.

Time will tell and I might be proven wrong, but whenever I ask my co-workers, friends, family, I don't hear alot of excitement about this issue. Only my fellow AVS friends and those in the tech media seem to care. I am the only person I know with a HD player and I just got in the game at Thanksgiving.

More press:

Blu-Ray Triumphs at Gadget Show
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080107/D8U1AG7G0.html

jac6,

nice find. Again, the article points out that BD was not stomping HD.

Warner's Blu-ray discs outsold their HD DVD rivals by three to two in the holiday season, not counting "Planet Earth" titles, which had an unusual following among owners of HD DVD players, Tsujihara said.

so if you include all titles, the advantage was less than 3:2. Definitely not the rout that BD supporters claim.

jac6,

nice find. Again, the article points out that BD was not stomping HD.

so if you include all titles, the advantage was less than 3:2. Definitely not the rout that BD supporters claim.

I think the bigger rout was overall sales, plus the apparent surprise of Blu-Ray stand-alones. And the huge PS3 holiday numbers.

jac6,

nice find. Again, the article points out that BD was not stomping HD.



so if you include all titles, the advantage was less than 3:2. Definitely not the rout that BD supporters claim.


And guess what, it doesn't matter. We are going to see virtually no HD DVD hardware released from here on out and the software spigot will start drying up in a few months too.

I don't see the point of throwing good money after bad. BD has a real chance to succeed now, so I'm backing it. I will keep my HD-A1 for playback of my HD DVD library and maybe in a few years pick up a cheap combo player for those titles.

HDM downloads might be happening sooner than you can imagine.


Already happened and failed.."Did not perform as expected" will become the common phrase in regards to bit starved, less quality, more expensive digital downloads. Only in select areas Verizon FIOS offers 50mbit/s for a $179/month. America's infrastructure is a disaster and the future outlook is bleak. We will be spending billions in the Middle East while we get leaped frog when it comes to infrastructure by china, brazil, etc.

"Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - News) quietly canceled its online video download service less than a year after the site went live, a company spokeswoman said on Thursday.

Wal-Mart shut down the download site after Hewlett Packard Co (NYSE:HPQ - News) discontinued the technology that powered it, Walmart.com spokeswoman Amy Colella said in an e-mail. She added that it will not look for another technology partner.

HP spokesman Hector Marinez said the company decided to discontinue its video download-only merchant store services because the market for paid video downloads did not perform "as expected."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071227/walmart_downloads.html

Dont be a forward thinker, fine by me. But dont be surprised in 5 years if such a service is successful.

The movie industry doesnt want to get caught with its pants down like the music industry did in the late 90s.

The Music industry failed because of Napster. Napster was people sharing music for free. The music industry thought that I-tunes would save the industry, it has not. The majority is not willing to pay for low quality crap MP3's. I can get those for free of limewire or numerous other sites. The mistake the music industry made was not promoting the quality difference between MP3s compared to CD's. People will pay for quality, not crap. The movie industry should learn something from the music industry. Give us quality a reasonable prices and you have a market. Give us crap quality at the same or higher prices and your market will vanish. I will download movies for free of a bit-torrent before I ever pay $5 a download for crap quality 720P.

"The leading DRM digital download service, Apple's iTunes, has experienced a collapse in sales revenues this year according to analyst company Forrester Research.

Secretive Apple doesn't break out revenues from iTunes, but Forrester conducted an analysis of credit card transactions over a 27-month period. And this year's numbers aren't good.While the iTunes service saw healthy growth for much of the period, since January the monthly revenue has fallen by 65 per cent, with the average transaction size falling 17 per cent. The previous spring's rebound wasn't repeated this year. And it isn't just Apple's problem. Nielsen Soundscan has grimmer news for prospective digital download services, indicating three consecutive quarters of flat or declining revenues for the sector as a whole."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/12/11/digital_downloads_flatline/


"If I told you that only 3% of online households in the United States have bought music from iTunes in the past year would you believe me? Forrester Research issued a report last week declaring that the 3% of households that have purchased music from iTunes store spent a total of $35 for the year, and half of them spent only $3 or less at a single time. Analyst Josh Bernoff chalks this up to, "even at 99 cents, most consumers still aren't sold on the value of digital music."
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/11/report-no-many-ipod-owners-use-itunes-store/

jmpage,

And guess what, it doesn't matter. We are going to see virtually no HD DVD hardware released from here on out and the software spigot will start drying up in a few months too.

No it doesnt matter, Warner made their decision. It does however, mean that Warner did not base their decision on "technical superiority" or really even the consumers choice. They probably did it to end the stalemate. Hence the reason I said what I said.



I don't see the point of throwing good money after bad. BD has a real chance to succeed now, so I'm backing it.

Maybe, and we shall see what happens in the next month or two. However, I have said for a long time that I dont see a whole lot of pent up demand like the BD supporters have claimed. If sales dont "explode" over the next couple of months, then I think HDM was doomed in general.

make,

Already happened and failed

tell that to Apple. They sell more movies and TV shows than both formats combined. This indicates that it is a viable model and that people will do it.

nice read but the last time they had a census over 50% of internet users were dial up
and i did not see if that figure even matched for basic cable so the way i see it you
would also have to convince all those house holds to go highspeed and give the service
away or close to it.

And guess what, it doesn't matter. We are going to see virtually no HD DVD hardware released from here on out

The "3" series Toshibas and LG are new, so they weren't due to be replaced. Toshiba announced bunch of laptops and Samsung announced a new combo.

Universal's refusing to comment doesn't sound good for Toshiba.

They already did in the press release:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS35203+07-Jan-2008+PRN20080107

They already did in the press release:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS35203+07-Jan-2008+PRN20080107

There's no information at all in that press release that indicates what, if anything, Universal's position is.

I have HD VOD through cable, and I have not rented a single title. I do enjoy the "free" HD content they make available. If they make titles available for purchase, I won't buy a single one.

What's the point? I would have to download my purchase onto a set-top box owned by the cable-company, with limited storage capacity. DRM would prevent me from copying and playing my purchase on other devices in other locations. What happens when I cancel my service or switch to another provider? No special features will be available. Basic surround sound. Low bit-rate video. And the pricing is going to be roughly the same as physical media.
Oh, but the convenience of HD-OD. ;) Right now the DRM restrictions on movie downloads is abysmal. What's the point if you have to use THEIR player, and watch it within a 24 hour period, or the thing will self-destruct. I'm reminded of the old Mission Impossible series where the little playback device would go up in smoke! :D I hate the DRM restrictions on MP3s as it is so I almost always buy the CD. There's nothing like having the PHYSICAL MEDIA to free up the 'when I watch it', 'where I watch it', 'whom I share it with', and 'what machines I put it on' factor. But, I'm afraid it a sign of the times.

It doesnt have to be a PC that handles to service. A simple device can provide an interface and storage for the movies. People did the same for music. I have seen the numbers pointing to 10-20% of music is now downloaded vs bought on physical media. This happened in a few short years.
This happened because of the ubiquitous iPod. And 99.99% of the tracks on my iPod are DRM free because they were ripped directly from physical media I own. I control the bit-rate, sound quality factor, etc. The way I prefer it.

In car blu ray players are science fiction too.
Any announceed yet?
BDA is very silent about BR players in cars.
Hum... Blu-ray on an 8" screen. Smart. Very smart. :D