Most of you around here know me as a Red supporter (albeit a reasonable one I would hope). Even I can see the writing on the wall and admit that HD can no longer win the war. The thing is, they can still make sure that Sony doesn't win too. I stated a long time ago that if Warner went Blu it would be a death blow. In my estimation at this point it is just about splitting up the pie.

There is no reason for Toshiba to "just give it up" at this point. They still hold a LOT of big cards. In order for Blu-Ray to become the presumptive successor they need to have all the studios behind them. Presumably, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal are all committed through the next holiday season, though a solid offer to Toshiba could change all that. Without Toshiba playing ball HD DVD can make sure that all the following do not make it to Blu Ray this year:

Iron Man
Indiana Jones (don't argue with me on this one-No WAY when the studio is under contract could they release it on a competing format. VERY unlikely is would make it to HD, but if so inclined I am sure it could be seen to that it doesn't make it to BD)
Mummy 3
Kung Fu Panda
Hulk
Wanted
Hellboy 2
Tropic Thunder
Cloverfield
Spiderwick Chronicles
Drillbit Taylor
Leatherheads
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Death Race
Eagle Eye
There will be Blood
American Gangster

Frankly, that is a very strong list and a list Blu cannot go to battle against SD DVD without.

This isn't about Toshiba still trying to win. This is about trying to get a piece of the pie. If Warner is worth 500M, how much is Toshiba worth? Is it worth waiting another year until the contracts expire? Can HDM wait another year??

The notion that Toshiba should slink away with its tail between its legs is absurd. They still hold keys that BD needs. I am sure they can get a decent price for them.

Last time I checked Toshiba doesn't control releases, studios do. I've never heard of a contract without an escape clause.

I expect that Universal goes neutral or BD very soon with Paramount to follow last. It's mainly about saving face for these guys at this time.

I don't see what Toshiba has to do with any of it. Do you think Paramount wants $150M more than they want a piece of the $20B a year packaged media business that will exist for BD in a few years if it takes off?

There are several threads discussing this already.

One example: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=970455

Star Trek TOS Season 2, as a known and announced release, also belongs on the list.

Um, hate to break the news to you, but Toshiba doesn't control a single thing on that list. If Paramount and Universal decide to go neutral, there's not a damn thing Toshiba can do about it, contracts or not (considering that Paramount has some kind of escape clause built into theirs, and Uni's is probably up in May when Warner Bros.'s is).

Star Trek TOS Season 2, as a known and announced release, also belongs on the list.

I believe that release has been indefinitely delayed due to poor sales of the first set.

Is it worth waiting another year until the contracts expire? Can HDM wait another year??Yes and yes. The whole chicken little idea that Blu-ray needs to win now, now, now is nothing more than HD DVD propaganda. The HDM market isn't going to fail in a year and I remember DVD taking several years to become mass market. Blu-ray can easily afford to go without Paramount and Universal for another year or two. Of course personally speaking I hope that Universal starts supporting Blu-ray this year and that Paramount starts supporting Blu-ray early next year. Also just to ask the obvious where did you hear that Universal would be under HD DVD contract for the rest of this year?

Yes and yes. The whole chicken little idea that Blu-ray needs to win now, now, now is nothing more than HD DVD propaganda. The HDM market isn't going to fail in a year and I remember DVD taking several years to become mass market. Blu-ray can easily afford to go without Paramount and Universal for another year or two. Of course personally speaking I hope that Universal starts supporting Blu-ray this year and that Paramount starts supporting Blu-ray early next year. Also just to ask the obvious where did you hear that Universal would be under HD DVD contract for the rest of this year?

Noooo Blu-Ray must die because HD-DVD is about to die. If our format can't live neither can yours.... Neiner neiner.

Yes and yes. The whole chicken little idea that Blu-ray needs to win now, now, now is nothing more than HD DVD propaganda. The HDM market isn't going to fail in a year and I remember DVD taking several years to become mass market. Blu-ray can easily afford to go without Paramount and Universal for another year or two. Of course personally speaking I hope that Universal starts supporting Blu-ray this year and that Paramount starts supporting Blu-ray early next year. Also just to ask the obvious where did you hear that Universal would be under HD DVD contract for the rest of this year?

Yes, yes, yes. Exactly.

Well, that's just great. "HDDVD can't win - but at least it is possible they can sabotage Blu-Ray, so no HDM format becomes mainstream".

Luckily, I don't think this is true. You are putting way too much trust in the loyalty of Universal and Paramount. HDDVD SAL player sales will stagnate since public opinion is that Blu-Ray is winning, and the studios want to sell more copies of their movies, so they are basically going to be forced to go neutral at a minimum.

What do you think Universal will do when they sell 200 000 of their most popular movie, while Warner sells 800 000 of their most popular title...?

My (educated) guess is:
1. One or more major retailers will totally remove HDDVD players from their selection, and most if not all HDDVD titles as well.
2. Heavy BD marketing (if Sony paid 500M to Warner, bet your ass that it was money for commercials etc..)
3. Lower player pricing - Funai is going to sell a BD player for under 300 msrp. You can already buy a sharp BD player for $299
4. PS3 continues to sell

==> Public will steer away from HDDVD ==> Uni/Para sees the writing on the wall, and want to sell more copies ==> One or both go Neutral ==> HDDVD is capitulating.

Toshiba should start designing a kickass DF player right now, instead of being the last one on the block, next year some time...

This is interesting. I'm seeing intelligent, once-red guys like jmpage2 responding with arguments to OPs like this because there is a much bigger picture. For those that truly enjoy HiDef movies, the writing is on the wall. The battle is now with DVD! Any straw grasping by Toshiba or anyone else HD DVD will only delay HDM and could, possibly do it irreparable harm.

So let me get this straight. You're proposing that Universal/Paramount/Dreamworks hold the films you listed as hostages so they can squeeze as much ransom money out of the HD-DVD supporter as they can until the inevitable death of the format? Yeah, that'll go well.

Well, that's just great. "HDDVD can't win - but at least it is possible they can sabotage Blu-Ray, so no HDM format becomes mainstream".
If I can't play, no one can! Screw you guys, I'm going home... and taking my ball with me! :mad:

:)

You posted a great example as to what really matters in this war (and why Blu Ray has won).... You posted great titles (and not a word about a cheap player).

Those are great titles but as great as they are, Blu Ray now has 70% of them exclusive to HD DVD's 30%.

It has always been about the software and that is why Warner's huge studio move to Blu Ray was the death blow to HD DVD... it is too late for them. Sony went after the studios from the get go and that is what put them over the top.

Toshiba doesn't control the releases but they control the studio's ability to release them on HD and Blu (asked a few times). This is significant.

At one time Universal was the only HD studio. If not for them this would have been over 8 months ago. I suspect they will be the last studio to fall; though at this point I think it is all three or wait...

According to insiders at BluRay.com Paramount has outs in the contract but Warner or Universal leaving are not among them.

I have quickly adopted Blu. I am simply playing out the rest of the game in my mind. There is no niener niener niener here. I am suggesting that given the troubles that Blu has had getting people to adopt they might want to offer the biggest blockbusters of the summer.

Certainly it is BD prerogative to wait until these contracts expire. Certainly it would be more profitable for Paramount to collect their money and wait than to switch over. I see no evidence that Uni is able OR willing to go to their hated rival.

I believe that release has been indefinitely delayed due to poor sales of the first set.

On the contrary CBS seems to be happy with the close to 100,000 units moving and has announced Season 2 and 3. Also they are contemplating the CSI series.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=971636

There is no way that HD-DVD can sabotage high def. There are MILLIONS of people that have no bought a player for the sole reason of multiple formats. Many of those same people are refusing to buy DVDs to wait and see what happens. Once one side has won, you will see the floodgates open. Just look to Universal's quotes..."no comment." They will switch soon. That will give Paramount its escape clause, then you will see HD media take off. The studios are well aware of this, and if they fail to react, their shareholders will have their ass. I bet some of the CEOs at Universal and Paramount have already lost their jobs, they just don't know it yet.

Toshiba doesn't control the releases but they control the studio's ability to release them on HD and Blu (asked a few times). This is significant.

At one time Universal was the only HD studio. If not for them this would have been over 8 months ago. I suspect they will be the last studio to fall; though at this point I think it is all three or wait...

According to insiders at BluRay.com Paramount has outs in the contract but Warner or Universal leaving are not among them.

I have quickly adopted Blu. I am simply playing out the rest of the game in my mind. There is no niener niener niener here. I am suggesting that given the troubles that Blu has had getting people to adopt they might want to offer the biggest blockbusters of the summer.

Certainly it is BD prerogative to wait until these contracts expire. Certainly it would be more profitable for Paramount to collect their money and wait than to switch over. I see no evidence that Uni is able OR willing to go to their hated rival.
Is that how "niener" is spelled?

:)

Fair enough, coolhand. Glad to hear you're on board!

Cheers

I expect that Universal goes neutral or BD very soon with Paramount to follow last. It's mainly about saving face for these guys at this time.

Saving face? This isn't Japan, where corporate culture is heavily influenced by that notion. Every one of these studios is a competitor against the other, they are not buddies, they operate in a cut-throat business. They want to make money - period. Uni and Paramount will do what they want to do based upon one thing - the Dollar. Sure, some egos in the industry may get a little shot, but that's about it, these are publicly traded companies, with much bigger fish they have to answer to - their board and stockholders.

Certainly it is BD prerogative to wait until these contracts expire. Certainly it would be more profitable for Paramount to collect their money and wait than to switch over. I see no evidence that Uni is able OR willing to go to their hated rival.

Universal may not like it, but if Paramount jumps ship first then Universal will have no choice. In fact, the last HD-DVD exclusive studios don't have a choice as it is now - they must either adopt Blu-Ray or their HD home video sales will suffer in the long run.

Universal may hate Sony, but as Nino Brown says, this is business, it's never personal.

Why in the world do people want the format to continue? BD has 70% of the market, and some still want the remaining 25% to "fight the good fight"? Enough is enough. Put the bitterness behind you and start joining the rest of us. Then we can focus on beginning to take some thunder away from dvd. Honestly, how much longer does Universal and Paramount want to miss out on possible BD sales?

As Fox has proved time and again you can announce all the titles you want but releasing them is another thing entirely. Yes, these three studios have contractual obligations, none of the particulars we actually know. But I would expect the remaining studios to either pressure Tosh to call it a day or find legal ways to reduce the content.

And this shouldn't be about some kind of scorch earth policy. It's childish to suggest that "we can still ensure Sony doesn't win this" or some such thing. That's just emotional fallout. The studios in the end will follow the money but they'll also follow the numbers. And none of those are favoring HD DVD.

Well, that's just great. "HDDVD can't win - but at least it is possible they can sabotage Blu-Ray, so no HDM format becomes mainstream".

Luckily, I don't think this is true. You are putting way too much trust in the loyalty of Universal and Paramount. HDDVD SAL player sales will stagnate since public opinion is that Blu-Ray is winning, and the studios want to sell more copies of their movies, so they are basically going to be forced to go neutral at a minimum.

What do you think Universal will do when they sell 200 000 of their most popular movie, while Warner sells 800 000 of their most popular title...?

My (educated) guess is:
1. One or more major retailers will totally remove HDDVD players from their selection, and most if not all HDDVD titles as well.
2. Heavy BD marketing (if Sony paid 500M to Warner, bet your ass that it was money for commercials etc..)
3. Lower player pricing - Funai is going to sell a BD player for under 300 msrp. You can already buy a sharp BD player for $299
4. PS3 continues to sell

==> Public will steer away from HDDVD ==> Uni/Para sees the writing on the wall, and want to sell more copies ==> One or both go Neutral ==> HDDVD is capitulating.

Toshiba should start designing a kickass DF player right now, instead of being the last one on the block, next year some time...

HD DVD's demise is a given. They cannot compete into next year. This was about Toshiba's options and negotiating position.

First off no HDM title has ever sold half as many titles as what you are suggesting. But consider Iron Man. Presume it goes very well and Uni gives up 400,000 BD sales. That is merely 400,000 more SD DVD sales they will get. The idea that these two studios NEED blu is not half as true as that Blu needs these two studios.

I don't WANT this to happen. I am suggesting that it is the responsibility of Toshiba to their shareholders to recoup whatever they can and they are still in a position of negotiating strength.

LIke David F said if Universal and or Paramount decide to go Blu tomorrow or next month, ALL those titles will be BD. Now that is a big if or is it? Look right now at what is going on at CES and we know how important CES is. Anything HD DVD has either gotten cancelled or taken back seat or is being downplayed. This is what the next year will look like for HD DVD. I am fairly confident Paramount will not only go back to BD, but eventually do so exclusively.

So let me get this straight. You're proposing that Universal/Paramount/Dreamworks hold the films you listed as hostages so they can squeeze as much ransom money out of the HD-DVD supporter as they can until the inevitable death of the format? Yeah, that'll go well.

NO! I am suggesting that it may be in Toshiba's best interests to hold the Uni/Para/DW ransom so that BD doesn't get it without paying. Sony has proven they are willing to pay, having invested 7-8B in their PS3/BD department. I am merely saying that the idea that they should just walk away is ludicrous when they still hold significant power over many of the summer's biggest titles.

First off no HDM title has ever sold half as many titles as what you are suggesting. But consider Iron Man. Presume it goes very well and Uni gives up 400,000 BD sales. That is merely 400,000 more SD DVD sales they will get. The idea that these two studios NEED blu is not half as true as that Blu needs these two studios.
Not necessarily. Giving up 400k BD sales doesn't equate to 400k SD-DVD sales. I would have no problem not buying Iron Man on DVD and waiting for it to show up on BD, or just renting the SD-DVD from Netflix.

The remaining studios will need BD if it becomes the dominant HD format, if they want to remain competitive with the other studios. Sticking stubbornly to HD-DVD will only hurt them as the switch will become more and more inevitable as time goes on. At this point, BD can afford to wait for these 2 studios to join them.

You're a "reasonable" red supporter, but condone actions that take down both sides? A mentality of "if I can't win, no one should win" is not what I would call "reasonable."

NO! I am suggesting that it may be in Toshiba's best interests to hold the Uni/Para/DW ransom so that BD doesn't get it without paying. Sony has proven they are willing to pay, having invested 7-8B in their PS3/BD department. I am merely saying that the idea that they should just walk away is ludicrous when they still hold significant power over many of the summer's biggest titles.

At this point the scales have already been tipped in BD's favor. I seriously doubt Uni/Para/DW will need to be bought in order to switch. If these studios don't switch, their bottom line gets hurt more than the BDA's.

This isn't true. I haven't bought a DVD since 10/2006. Warner mentioned the affect of the HD format war on DVD sales. Paramount did not lose a DVD sale of Transformers in my case. They lost a Blu-ray sale. There was no DVD sale to lose.

HD DVD's demise is a given. They cannot compete into next year. This was about Toshiba's options and negotiating position.

First off no HDM title has ever sold half as many titles as what you are suggesting. But consider Iron Man. Presume it goes very well and Uni gives up 400,000 BD sales. That is merely 400,000 more SD DVD sales they will get. The idea that these two studios NEED blu is not half as true as that Blu needs these two studios.

I don't WANT this to happen. I am suggesting that it is the responsibility of Toshiba to their shareholders to recoup whatever they can and they are still in a position of negotiating strength.

HD DVD's demise is a given. They cannot compete into next year. This was about Toshiba's options and negotiating position.

First off no HDM title has ever sold half as many titles as what you are suggesting. But consider Iron Man. Presume it goes very well and Uni gives up 400,000 BD sales. That is merely 400,000 more SD DVD sales they will get. The idea that these two studios NEED blu is not half as true as that Blu needs these two studios.

I don't WANT this to happen. I am suggesting that it is the responsibility of Toshiba to their shareholders to recoup whatever they can and they are still in a position of negotiating strength.

I was looking in my crystal ball a year out or so (in the unlikely event Universal is still a HDDVD exclusive studio then), but you get my point.

If it was as easy as 400K DVD = 400K HiDef, then there wouldn't be a reason for any of them to spend money on HiDef at all. They make less and less money on DVD, sales are not as stellar they would like, etc. They need to get in on a format where they can make more money (of course, with BOGO's I don't think they make much more :)

I see your point about Toshiba's shareholders, but at this point I think they would be better off recouping some of the money they gave to Universal and Paramount if possible (say some negotiation to let them out of contracts early), and start creating DF players early on so they can get a dominant marketshare overall.

This isn't about revenge. Its not about scorched earth. Its not about wanting two formats. Its about what in the world is Toshiba going to do now. They need to recoup whatever they can from this awful position they find themselves in. I am merely suggesting they can still cash in.

I wouldn't buy more than a few HD titles from here on and I think Tosh knows this. However, they wield power in that Uni has seemingly taken an anti-Blu stance since this all started and could have decided this a long time ago. Paramount, even according to the most die hard of Blu supporters is under contract for another year.

You're a "reasonable" red supporter, but condone actions that take down both sides? A mentality of "if I can't win, no one should win" is not what I would call "reasonable."

Its not about me condoning it. Its about Toshiba being responsible to its shareholders to recoup the losses they took. They lost. Done. Now go get some money back before we slink out of here.

Did you even read this? I am Blu now! I am suggesting that Blu cannot merely soldier ahead now without paying off either the two remaining studios or Toshiba. And they can't pay off the other two studios because they are under contract, so Toshiba still has leverage.

The only way Toshiba can 'cash in' is to have a firesale on remaining HD-DVD player units, clear out inventory as quickly as it can, and start building dual format or BD players.

Cashing in by holding studios hostage isn't just feasible (what, you don't think Paramount has an out clause, or that they won't simply just break whatever contract they've got?), it'll end up pissing off consumers more than the BDA.

Did you even read this? I am Blu now! I am suggesting that Blu cannot merely soldier ahead now without paying off either the two remaining studios or Toshiba. And they can't pay off the other two studios because they are under contract, so Toshiba still has leverage.
Like I said - BDA does not need to pay anyone off anymore. If it just sits back and waits, the 2 remaining studios will switch over sooner or later, regardless of what contracts are in place. They will follow where the money is, and Toshiba cannot stop them.

Universal/Paramount/DW are standing on the deck of a sinking ship. They'll jump on the BD lifeboat whether or not they signed some contract forcing them to stay on the ship. :)

I agree with the OP that Toshiba should take any measure to recoup some of their costs. However, I just don't know if they actually have the power to "ransom" the two remaining studios. I think just as Toshiba is out to look after themselves, Universal and Paramount will too. I'm pretty sure Universal and Paramount would be looking to get themselves money for switching to Blu-Ray, not get money for Toshiba.

There is no way that HD-DVD can sabotage high def. There are MILLIONS of people that have no bought a player for the sole reason of multiple formats. Many of those same people are refusing to buy DVDs to wait and see what happens. Once one side has won, you will see the floodgates open. Just look to Universal's quotes..."no comment." They will switch soon. That will give Paramount its escape clause, then you will see HD media take off. The studios are well aware of this, and if they fail to react, their shareholders will have their ass. I bet some of the CEOs at Universal and Paramount have already lost their jobs, they just don't know it yet.

I don't know about this assertion. These studios got some nice marketing dollars and publicity from their move to back HD-DVD exclusively. Now they either honour this contract or get this contract bought out by BLu-Ray and negotiate an agreement to publish on Blu-Ray. Even if they honour their HD-DVD contract they will be publishing on Blu-Ray when the format is really starting to take off. Then they can market all their great hits finally coming out on BLu-Ray.

As annoying as these deals are to me (studios going exclusive for some marketing dollars, breaks on publishing licences etc) I know that it is a way of business in many industries. I just want one format and for HDM to be successful (hopefully close to DVD after 8 years or so).

You do realise that Paramount have a pretty poor international distribution rights and alot of their titles will be available through WB as imports;)

Its not about me condoning it. Its about Toshiba being responsible to its shareholders to recoup the losses they took. They lost. Done. Now go get some money back before we slink out of here.

Did you even read this? I am Blu now! I am suggesting that Blu cannot merely soldier ahead now without paying off either the two remaining studios or Toshiba. And they can't pay off the other two studios because they are under contract, so Toshiba still has leverage.

Sorry, but when I read this, it doesn't sounds like you're just saying Toshiba should try to recoup its losses.

The thing is, they can still make sure that Sony doesn't win too.

Why the heck are so hell bent on impeding the HDM evolution?

Let's get this thing done (one format) and move on!

Is sabotaging the future of HDM the focus of Toshiba and HD-DVD supporters? If this is the case then I hope retailers take it upon themselves to remove HD-DVD hardware and software from their shelves. If Toshiba or the studios supporting them cannot see the big picture but hold onto a grudge or hate of Sony (really childish) then the retailers should take it out of their hands.

I was looking in my crystal ball a year out or so (in the unlikely event Universal is still a HDDVD exclusive studio then), but you get my point.

If it was as easy as 400K DVD = 400K HiDef, then there wouldn't be a reason for any of them to spend money on HiDef at all. They make less and less money on DVD, sales are not as stellar they would like, etc. They need to get in on a format where they can make more money (of course, with BOGO's I don't think they make much more :)

I see your point about Toshiba's shareholders, but at this point I think they would be better off recouping some of the money they gave to Universal and Paramount if possible (say some negotiation to let them out of contracts early), and start creating DF players early on so they can get a dominant marketshare overall.

I really doubt this will not play out long before June. I do think that even the three teams on the losing side have the power to get paid in all of this. If you think any of the blu studios have been making much if any money so far I think you are mistaken. If Blu is going to beat DVD and VOD and Downloads they will need all the studios in the fold. I think the arrogance of the BDA is expecting the two remaining studios to slink back and beg forgiveness when truthfully the BDA needs them just to HAVE a format.

Its not about the 400,000 vs the 400,000. They MAY lose a FEW along the way to us diehards but its really about reselling the entire catalogs for the umpteenth time.

This is interesting. I'm seeing intelligent, once-red guys like jmpage2 responding with arguments to OPs like this because there is a much bigger picture. For those that truly enjoy HiDef movies, the writing is on the wall. The battle is now with DVD! Any straw grasping by Toshiba or anyone else HD DVD will only delay HDM and could, possibly do it irreparable harm.But much more harm to Toshiba and any studio stupid enough to drink their red Kool-aid at this point.

I really doubt this will not play out long before June. I do think that even the three teams on the losing side have the power to get paid in all of this. If you think any of the blu studios have been making much if any money so far I think you are mistaken. If Blu is going to beat DVD and VOD and Downloads they will need all the studios in the fold. I think the arrogance of the BDA is expecting the two remaining studios to slink back and beg forgiveness when truthfully the BDA needs them just to HAVE a format.

Its not about the 400,000 vs the 400,000. They MAY lose a FEW along the way to us diehards but its really about reselling the entire catalogs for the umpteenth time.

Geezus. What part of "they have no choice" do you not understand? Uni/Para/DW MUST adopt BD if they want to remain competitive in the HDM market. Whether that happens tomorrow or next year is up to them, but regardless of when it happens the BDA can afford to wait for them to 'slink back and beg forgiveness' without paying out an additional cent.

I believe that release has been indefinitely delayed due to poor sales of the first set.

Why would you even post that false bit of info?

As Fox has proved time and again you can announce all the titles you want but releasing them is another thing entirely. Yes, these three studios have contractual obligations, none of the particulars we actually know. But I would expect the remaining studios to either pressure Tosh to call it a day or find legal ways to reduce the content.

And this shouldn't be about some kind of scorch earth policy. It's childish to suggest that "we can still ensure Sony doesn't win this" or some such thing. That's just emotional fallout. The studios in the end will follow the money but they'll also follow the numbers. And none of those are favoring HD DVD.

I think that Toshiba is more worried about the next step in optical discs, meaning if Sony gains market share and influence through BD they will likely control and mandate the successor through royalties money and so on.

I hope Toshiba just accepts this and lives to fight another day, but this whole war stemmed from Sony wanting royalties and control enjoyed by Toshiba from the DVD format. It might suck for the consumer, but Toshiba has no reason to support BD...yet. The only way I see them sitting back and giving up is if BD really takes off and the money lost from not joining outweighs what the Sony can yirld in the future.

The only way Toshiba can 'cash in' is to have a firesale on remaining HD-DVD player units, clear out inventory as quickly as it can, and start building dual format or BD players.

Cashing in by holding studios hostage isn't just feasible (what, you don't think Paramount has an out clause, or that they won't simply just break whatever contract they've got?), it'll end up pissing off consumers more than the BDA.


Like I said - BDA does not need to pay anyone off anymore. If it just sits back and waits, the 2 remaining studios will switch over sooner or later, regardless of what contracts are in place. They will follow where the money is, and Toshiba cannot stop them.

Universal/Paramount/DW are standing on the deck of a sinking ship. They'll jump on the BD lifeboat whether or not they signed some contract forcing them to stay on the ship. :)

I don't think there is any need for Dual format players. I don't expect any more notable releases to make it to HD DVD.

Well according to BLURAY.COM insiders nothing that has happened has activated any out clause that may exist for Paramount. I cannot imagine why they would risk losing 150M plus damages when they won't make 1/10th of that making BluRays this year.

That is the exact arrogance I was speaking of. With $400 1.0 players, Blu hasn't sold many standalones and there doesn't seem to be any real consumer excitement about HDM. BDA needs those two studios far more than those two studios need the BDA.

The metaphor of BluRay as a lifeboat is a little funny. Without those two studios their ship will sink just as fast. All I am saying here is that Sony isn't done with their checkbook.

baron,

There are MILLIONS of people that have no bought a player for the sole reason of multiple formats

Show me any evidence that there are millions of buyers waiting in the wings. I just dont see that huge a demand for HDM, and I have said this for a long time. We shall see if there is an "explosion" of growth that most BD supporters seem to think will happen.

I don't think there is any need for Dual format players. I don't expect any more notable releases to make it to HD DVD.

Well according to BLURAY.COM insiders nothing that has happened has activated any out clause that may exist for Paramount. I cannot imagine why they would risk losing 150M plus damages when they won't make 1/10th of that making BluRays this year.

That is the exact arrogance I was speaking of. With $400 1.0 players, Blu hasn't sold many standalones and there doesn't seem to be any real consumer excitement about HDM. BDA needs those two studios far more than those two studios need the BDA.

The metaphor of BluRay as a lifeboat is a little funny. Without those two studios their ship will sink just as fast. All I am saying here is that Sony isn't done with their checkbook.
But their standalones somehow outsold Toshiba standalones in December, despite costing more.

Presumably, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal are all committed through the next holiday season, though a solid offer to Toshiba could change all that.I highly doubt that Universal has an exclusive contract even for today, let alone through the end of the year. And if Universal goes neutral (or exclusive to Blu-ray) then the question becomes why Toshiba would want to continue to pay Paramount and Dreamworks for something that doesn't really benefit Toshiba. Toshiba may be the ones asking out of that contract, not the other way around.

And as far as escape clauses, I don't know any specifics of that Paramount/Dreamworks contract, but even if it doesn't include anything about Warner and Universal, I think there is a good chance that it includes sales levels, whether those be players or discs. And selling players just got a lot harder for Toshiba. Paramount/Dreamworks would have been crazy to not include something that would let them out if HD DVD players weren't selling at reasonable levels.

--Darin

I can see it now. The savior of HD DVD will be the ultra-exclusive title...Kung Fu Panda! (Sorry, couldn't resist. It just seemed out of place on the list.)

Sorry, but when I read this, it doesn't sounds like you're just saying Toshiba should try to recoup its losses.

I already have one outdated HDM player. I certainly don't want two.

That was written as an indication of the power that Toshiba still yields. It was not meant as a personal viewpoint. I hope this is all over by the end of the week. I can't imagine that Toshiba would be willing to do something like that though, not with the cards they still have to play.

Agreed that these agreements will not be an obstacle to doing what makes sense from a business perspective. And nothing about trying to save HD-DVD makes business sense. The opposite, however, makes abundant sense.

I highly doubt that Universal has an exclusive contract even for today, let alone through the end of the year. And if Universal goes neutral (or exclusive to Blu-ray) then the question becomes why Toshiba would want to continue to pay Paramount and Dreamworks for something that doesn't really benefit Toshiba. Toshiba may be the ones asking out of that contract, not the other way around.

And as far as escape clauses, I don't know any specifics of that Paramount/Dreamworks contract, but even if it doesn't include anything about Warner and Universal, I think there is a good chance that it includes sales levels, whether those be players or discs. And selling players just got a lot harder for Toshiba.

--Darin

That was written as an indication of the power that Toshiba still yields.You are assuming that Toshiba controls Universal. I think you are wrong. Just look at the release slate announced from Universal and it might give you some clue as to how much Toshiba controls what they release at the moment.

--Darin

Why the heck are so hell bent on impeding the HDM evolution?

Let's get this thing done (one format) and move on!

Great! I'm all for it! I am merely suggesting that this is the way it is likely to play out. Sony needs to get out their checkbook and write three more checks.

On the contrary CBS seems to be happy with the close to 100,000 units moving and has announced Season 2 and 3. Also they are contemplating the CSI series.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=971636

Did you read a little further down in the thread you linked to?

http://www.tvshowsondvd.com/news/Star-Trek-Season-2-Delay/8544

No way in hell Star Trek came even close to 100,000 units. That was a projected number -- actual units sold are somewhere in the 10,00-15,000 range.

Great! I'm all for it! I am merely suggesting that this is the way it is likely to play out. Sony needs to get out their checkbook and write three more checks.

You mean two Paramount and Universal. Why would they need to pay anyone. The retailers can make this happen.

You mean two Paramount and Universal. Why would they need to pay anyone. The retailers can make this happen.

Again, because the BDA need Universal Paramount more than the other way around.

Why would you even post that false bit of info?

Hardly:

http://www.tvshowsondvd.com/news/Star-Trek-Season-2-Delay/8544

Not indefinitely, but the guess is summer 2008 and there has been no official rescheduled release date, at least that I can find.

Who wants to bet these other season sets never see the light of day?

Great! I'm all for it! I am merely suggesting that this is the way it is likely to play out. Sony needs to get out their checkbook and write three more checks.No they don't. Just like you don't need to cut all 3 legs off of a 3 legged stool to get it to fall. One check to Best Buy might even do the trick, but if Universal goes over to Blu-ray (even as neutral), then I don't see any need to pay Toshiba, Paramount or Dreamworks. Toshiba's stockholders would probably take care of making sure they don't spend a lot of money that will have no return.

If Paramount and Universal were concerned about BD50 replication before, they better start thinking about whether they would rather be 2nd to last in line for those, or last in line.

BTW: If that 2nd season of ST:TOS gets released on HD DVD only, it will be interesting to see how low the sales would be. I bet they would be quite a bit lower than the 1st season, given the new circumstances and other things.

--Darin

Again, because the BDA need Universal Paramount more than the other way around.

If you believe alot of rumours concerning retailers you will also realise they are not happy and could simply refuse to stock the hardware and software for HD-DVD knowing that BD is the future and take that "trump" card out of the studios hands.

If you believe alot of rumours concerning retailers you will also realise they are not happy and could simply refuse to stock the hardware and software for HD-DVD knowing that BD is the future and take that "trump" card out of the studios hands.Or stop stocking any HD DVDs other than the big hitters. Best Buy was doing that to some degree before when they weren't carrying many of the Universal catalog releases as they came out. If Universal decided to stick it out with HD DVD only, I would expect the same thing to happen again.

And there are things that could be done to decrease HD DVD's shelf space along with the above, making it obvious to any HD DVD owner that something has gone wrong.

--Darin

davidf

No way in hell Star Trek came even close to 100,000 units

quite true. But guess what, according to David Vaughn, only 5 titles have exceed the 100K mark, 3 BD and 2 HD.

so, in that context, HDM is not doing all that well in general, and I am not entirely convinced that will change with this announcement.

One didnt see significant increases in volumes until all the BOGOs hit. The studios are in a bit of a bind, the studios do not want to see an MSRP of $15-20 on HDM because they wont make much money, OTOH, it seems as if people were not buying a lot of discs at $30 a pop.

This isn't about revenge. Its not about scorched earth. Its not about wanting two formats. Its about what in the world is Toshiba going to do now. They need to recoup whatever they can from this awful position they find themselves in. I am merely suggesting they can still cash in.

I wouldn't buy more than a few HD titles from here on and I think Tosh knows this. However, they wield power in that Uni has seemingly taken an anti-Blu stance since this all started and could have decided this a long time ago. Paramount, even according to the most die hard of Blu supporters is under contract for another year.Dude, the Blu-ray train has left the station. The longer Toshiba delays its own transition to Blu-ray, the further behind the other CE manufacturers they'll be.

They tried. They failed. Time to move on.

UPDATE: We have received word from Paramount/DreamWorks that although they continue to support HD DVD, they will not be making any new high-def title announcements at CES 2008.

Looks like Toshiba may need to get the cheque book out again.

Toshiba has about 6 months left before player sales dry up. Once Warner goes BD exclusive, HD DVD won't just lose the new releases, it's overall catalogue will be slashed as Warner titles go out of stock and never get replaced. Few consumers will buy into a dying format with such a tiny selection compared to it's competitor.

davidf



quite true. But guess what, according to David Vaughn, only 5 titles have exceed the 100K mark, 3 BD and 2 HD.

so, in that context, HDM is not doing all that well in general, and I am not entirely convinced that will change with this announcement.

One didnt see significant increases in volumes until all the BOGOs hit. The studios are in a bit of a bind, the studios do not want to see an MSRP of $15-20 on HDM because they wont make much money, OTOH, it seems as if people were not buying a lot of discs at $30 a pop.


I think he meant on the first week. I am sure alot of titles have exceeded 100,000 at this stage.

Geezus. What part of "they have no choice" do you not understand? Uni/Para/DW MUST adopt BD if they want to remain competitive in the HDM market. Whether that happens tomorrow or next year is up to them, but regardless of when it happens the BDA can afford to wait for them to 'slink back and beg forgiveness' without paying out an additional cent.

That is complete hubris. Without Para/Uni/DW Blu doesn't make it out of the year either. There are a number of other delivery systems on the horizon for HDM and after seeing the checks that have already been written you can bet that the remaining studios will want to get theirs. I think you are looking at this from one side and not both. Blu needs a unified front to COMPETE. They haven't won anything yet. If they play hardball with the remaining few studios (who obviously disliked blu to start) it will get interesting.

I hate to break the news to ya but your list has like 4-6 really BIG movies on it

I can see it now. The savior of HD DVD will be the ultra-exclusive title...Kung Fu Panda! (Sorry, couldn't resist. It just seemed out of place on the list.)

I will bet you $1 that Panda hits $175M

You want in?

There have been articles that say that one reason DVD sales are diminishing is they are waiting for the HD release, I know I won't buy any movie that is not on Blu-ray (since I support BD), So I don't have Transformers and will not for a while, as an example.

Assuming the movies on the list are actually good and liked by most people (like Transformers) Paramount may actually be better off with releasing on BD by the end of the year with Iron Man and Indiana Jones even if it causes them to give up some of the $150 million, HDDVD will not grow much during this year and current owners may stop buying so the first week sales for these titles will probably be around 200k each. Those 2 titles if released on BD in the fourth quarter will probably be anywhere between 500K to 1 million the first week each. If Paramount has a minimum number of titles to release during the year advertising and production costs may use up most of the money they were given if their other titles do about the same as they did last year. If Cloverfield does very well and is liked by everyone during its theater run they may want to restart to release on BD, If that does well combined with their Summer releases that will be released in the 4th quarter they may actually be able to make a sizable amount of money from BD which may actually more than offset the lost money from a breach in contract. Also if B&M stores stop carrying HDDVD they will have a hard time selling 100k of any title. (if the guy at CC is actually correct and actually informed (BIG IF) CC may not be carrying HDDVD in 6 months)

Universal has no contract so they will not receive money to release on HDDVD so they will not have to give any money back if they go neutral. It does not seem Microsoft is to much behind HDDVD anymore so add-on sales may decrease considerably if Microsoft does not even try to push it, with Hellboy,Hulk, and Mummy big in the video game demographic Universal will miss out on a lot if they don't release on BD.

That is complete hubris. Without Para/Uni/DW Blu doesn't make it out of the year either. There are a number of other delivery systems on the horizon for HDM and after seeing the checks that have already been written you can bet that the remaining studios will want to get theirs. I think you are looking at this from one side and not both. Blu needs a unified front to COMPETE. They haven't won anything yet. If they play hardball with the remaining few studios (who obviously disliked blu to start) it will get interesting.

And you are assuming that Toshiba and its respective studios have some degree of bargaining power left. They don't. As you so astutely pointed out, it's all about the money. Studios are not going to continue to spend money to support a format that will inevitably be dead within a year, contract or no contract. Dragging this pointless format war just to squeeze some money out of the victor doesn't hurt anyone but the consumer.

Yes, Blu-Ray needs a unified front to compete against SD-DVD. They haven't even begun to do that because they've been fighting this battle against HD-DVD. But BDA can easily play hardball with these remaining studios because, like I said, these remaining studios have absolutely nothing to bargain with. You really think some contract is going to keep Paramount from defecting and going neutral or dumping HD-DVD completely? These companies are in the business to make money, and if they see there's more money to be made in BD than HD-DVD, they'll migrate to it. The alternative is to watch revenues disappear slowly as HD-DVD dies.

Remember back in the early days of DVD? Disney (as well as Paramount, I believe) was one of the last studios to adopt DVD. It took Disney forever to jump on the bandwagon, because of DIVX and that failed experiment. Same thing - DIVX died and Disney eventually came 'slinking back' and started releasing its library on DVD. They had no choice if they wanted to stay competitive.

Bottom line is, I say the studios need BD more, you say otherwise. Fine, whatever. Good luck with your idea, but I get the impression it's motivated more by spite than good business sense.

Indiana Jones (don't argue with me on this one-No WAY when the studio is under contract could they release it on a competing format. VERY unlikely is would make it to HD, but if so inclined I am sure it could be seen to that it doesn't make it to BD)Why did you put this when the Paramount/Dreamworks press release specifically said that movies directed by Steven Spielberg were not included, and that movie is directed by Steven Spielberg? They could have said Spielberg directed movies except, but they didn't. They said Spielberg directed movies.

The, "don't argue with me" doesn't change that the statement from Paramount/Dreamworks said that movies directed by the person directing Indiana Jones 4 were not included in the announcement. If the contract says Stephen Spielberg directed titles and doesn't call out dates or anything that specifically includes that Spielberg directed title, then there is nothing Toshiba can do about it other than things like cough up more money (throw good money at bad).

Seems like for this thread you assumed both that Universal is locked up in an exclusive contract and that the press release announcing HD DVD exclusivity form Paramount/Dreamworks wasn't true.

--Darin

Darin,

I don't disagree that HD is on its way out. Even if they cannot sell HD DVDs the studios wield great power and it is really in Toshiba's best interest that Blu-Ray fail (as Blu succeeds it will eat away at DVD royalties). Understand that Blu has access to no more movies today than they did a week ago. I imagine both Uni and Para want in. But Sony will need to write some more checks. I just hope they are willing to in a reasonable time frame.

I hate to break the news to ya but your list has like 4-6 really BIG movies on it

We will agree to disagree there. There are atleast 8 $125M pictures on there almost all of which are the type of movies that do extremely well on HDM.

I believe that release [Star Trek: TOS - Season 2] has been indefinitely delayed due to poor sales of the first set.Do you have a reference? Just curious. I know there may be a delay... but "poor sales?"

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6517163.html says Paramount expects 100K in sales. (Yes, it seems a bit high since it's not exactly a low-priced product.)"The high sales has led the company to commit to releasing the other two Star Trek seasons."

Darin,

I don't disagree that HD is on its way out. Even if they cannot sell HD DVDs the studios wield great power and it is really in Toshiba's best interest that Blu-Ray fail (as Blu succeeds it will eat away at DVD royalties). Understand that Blu has access to no more movies today than they did a week ago. I imagine both Uni and Para want in. But Sony will need to write some more checks.Please go read about the Prisoner's Dilemma here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

Unless Paramount and Universal get together to try to create a united front against Sony, Sony can just divide them knowing that they both want to release on Blu-ray if it is going to win. And if those 2 try to get together, Sony can just target the retailers at this point, knowing that the retailers want one format and the Warner decision is good reason for them to make that Blu-ray. Universal caved to Blockbuster in the past and I bet they would cave to Best Buy. Any negotiated for Sony worth his salt should be able to close out a win here by the middle of the year without writing those big checks to Toshiba, Paramount, or Universal. I could see Universal getting maybe $20 million now, but I doubt they could demand a lot more than that. Their management could have gotten a lot more a few weeks ago, but they let that opportunity pass. Now they could let the next opportunity pass too if they let the retailers or Paramount step in front of them in the negotiation line.

For any movie that you can point to that is the type that will do well on HDM, the problem is that the studios want them to do well on HDM, but at this point they won't if they are HD DVD exclusive. I almost wish there was a big HD DVD exclusive coming up soon, just so we could see how much poorer sales would be after the Warner announcement.

--Darin

You posted a great example as to what really matters in this war (and why Blu Ray has won).... You posted great titles (and not a word about a cheap player).

Those are great titles but as great as they are, Blu Ray now has 70% of them exclusive to HD DVD's 30%.

It has always been about the software and that is why Warner's huge studio move to Blu Ray was the death blow to HD DVD... it is too late for them. Sony went after the studios from the get go and that is what put them over the top.

There seem to be very doubt in that statement as of today. I will have to give it to you as you have been saying it all along "content is king". I had thought HD DVD was on the right track with the Paramount move but they bit the bullet.

Now we just have to wait and see if it becomes a niche market or not. I really think that was one of the reasons Warner wanted to pick a side. "To get this thing over with already.

What in the heck does Universal and Paramount have to gain by sticking it out with HD DVD when Blu Ray sells double the software and the HD DVD ship just hit the big ice berg??!! These studios are in it for the money, and there is a lot more money in Blu Ray / software sales.

Darin,

I don't disagree that HD is on its way out. Even if they cannot sell HD DVDs the studios wield great power and it is really in Toshiba's best interest that Blu-Ray fail (as Blu succeeds it will eat away at DVD royalties). Understand that Blu has access to no more movies today than they did a week ago. I imagine both Uni and Para want in. But Sony will need to write some more checks. I just hope they are willing to in a reasonable time frame.

It really no longer matters which studio has which movies, etc. At this point it becomes all about mindshare and momentum with the buying public.

When I was cruising around checking out software I saw no less than half a dozen PS3s going out. Anecdotal? Yes. But it's an indicator that many consumers who have been on the fence and waiting just got the green light to go buy a player.

As the shelves get packed with tons of BD software this fall (and the HD DVD section turns into something like the UMD section was a year ago) it will be obvious to most customers what to buy. There will be no fence sitting. Worst case there will be talk of when studio X or Y is finally going to cave.

Why did you put this when the Paramount/Dreamworks press release specifically said that movies directed by Steven Spielberg were not included, and that movie is directed by Steven Spielberg? They could have said Spielberg directed movies except, but they didn't. They said Spielberg directed movies.

The, "don't argue with me" doesn't change that the statement from Paramount/Dreamworks said that movies directed by the person directing Indiana Jones 4 were not included in the announcement. If the contract says Stephen Spielberg directed titles and doesn't call out dates or anything that specifically includes that Spielberg directed title, then there is nothing Toshiba can do about it other than things like cough up more money (throw good money at bad).

Seems like for this thread you assumed both that Universal is locked up in an exclusive contract and that the press release announcing HD DVD exclusivity form Paramount/Dreamworks wasn't true.

--Darin

I'm not going to argue about the Speilberg movies. I think that is a small point at this juncture. I don't presume that Indy would make it to HD but there is no way that if Paramount/DW is still around at that time that it would go to BD. I happen to think it is immaterial as I hope this is worked out before September.

Do you have a reference? Just curious. I know there may be a delay... but "poor sales?"

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6517163.html says Paramount expects 100K in sales. (Yes, it seems a bit high since it's not exactly a low-priced product.)

I've seen multiple statements about very low sales -- like I said, around 10,000 to 15,000 units -- but I can't find them at the moment. I don't think the series set ever broke into the Nielson top 10.

Here's a link that references "dismal" sales from a month ago but doesn't name the numbers.

http://formatwarcentral.com/index.php/2007/12/04/no-wonder-star-trektos-hd-dvd-sales-are-dismal/

All I have time for now. Sorry.

Most of you around here know me as a Red supporter (albeit a reasonable one I would hope). Even I can see the writing on the wall and admit that HD can no longer win the war. The thing is, they can still make sure that Sony doesn't win too. I stated a long time ago that if Warner went Blu it would be a death blow. In my estimation at this point it is just about splitting up the pie...


You're not really into HD media, are you? Take your agendas elsewhere, please.

Why did you put this when the Paramount/Dreamworks press release specifically said that movies directed by Steven Spielberg were not included, and that movie is directed by Steven Spielberg? They could have said Spielberg directed movies except, but they didn't. They said Spielberg directed movies.

The, "don't argue with me" doesn't change that the statement from Paramount/Dreamworks said that movies directed by the person directing Indiana Jones 4 were not included in the announcement. If the contract says Stephen Spielberg directed titles and doesn't call out dates or anything that specifically includes that Spielberg directed title, then there is nothing Toshiba can do about it other than things like cough up more money (throw good money at bad).

Seems like for this thread you assumed both that Universal is locked up in an exclusive contract and that the press release announcing HD DVD exclusivity form Paramount/Dreamworks wasn't true.

--Darin

HDM is a blip on the radar. I still think RIGHT NOW (this could change if and when HDM takes off) that the BDA needs Paramount and Universal much more than the other way around.

Lets be fair. Most of the releases and players have been heavily subsidized through fire sales, BOGO and B3G2 sales.

All the leverage Universal and Paramount need are knowing they may not do anything on the HD DVD front, but they sure as hell can prevent BD from hitting the mainstream...

I'm not going to argue about the Speilberg movies. I think that is a small point at this juncture. I don't presume that Indy would make it to HD but there is no way that if Paramount/DW is still around at that time that it would go to BD.Sales will probably be over 3:1 for Blu-ray on common titles at that point even if Paramount/DW sticks it out for the rest of their contract, and if that movie is as successful as it looks like it could be, not releasing it on Blu-ray could cost them a lot of sales. Who do you think would want to keep that title from being sold on Blu-ray at that point? Paramount?

Seems like the information from Paramount clearly says that his titles aren't included in the HD DVD exclusivity, you want to argue that this one was, but then say you aren't going to argue about it. Basically, looks like you just made up that this one is exclusive to HD DVD when the press release as written says otherwise.

--Darin

You're not really into HD media, are you?

Translation:

"You aren't really a true HD consumer whore, willing to throw money at whoever fulfills your immediate HD addiction, are you?"

All the leverage Universal and Paramount need are knowing they may not do anything on the HD DVD front, but they sure as hell can prevent BD from hitting the mainstream...

And why would they want to? Don't you think they'd like to re-sell hundreds of their catalog titles?

All the leverage Universal and Paramount need are knowing they may not do anything on the HD DVD front, but they sure as hell can prevent BD from hitting the mainstream...Again, they would need to be united to have much sway. And after Paramount came in and took Dreamworks away from Universal when Dreamworks was close to signing with Universal, I'm not sure how much those 2 companies would be into cooperating. And if Paramount and Universal really are concerned about BD50 replication, they better each start coming up with a plan, which would likely include getting higher priority than the other company if they want to get those discs from Sony.

And to add something, it would be a little strange for any of the big 6 studios to want to try to kill the next gen format. To try to win for one side is one thing, but to try to kill the format they know is going to win would be ridiculous. They want a healthy disc format in a few years too. None of those studios should want both HD disc formats to be unhealthy. Plus, Toshiba would have to throw good money away (keep building and selling players, advertising, paying for end caps, etc.) in order to really try to spoil the game for Sony.

--Darin

And why would they want to? Don't you think they'd like to re-sell hundreds of their catalog titles?

They would be lucky to sell to a few hundred copies of most catalogue titles with the current state of HDM.

Amidst this format "skirmish", HDM is still very much a niche format. Remember DTheater? I'd guess most, if not all of Joe Q. Public has never even heard of it (excluding early-adopter types).

All this batting back and forth is tiring to me, and I'm usually an early adopter amongst those I know. I can't imagine how a newbie to HDM probably feels right now.

And unless things somehow drastically change (the sudden removal of standard DVD from store shelves :rolleyes:), HDM could still possibly fail altogether....especially if consumers deem players are priced too high. But it wouldn't be the end of the world; something else will come along to take its place.

Again, they would need to be united to have much sway. And after Paramount came in and took Dreamworks away from Universal when Dreamworks was close to signing with Universal, I'm not sure how much those 2 companies would be into cooperating. And if Paramount and Universal really are concerned about BD50 replication, they better each start coming up with a plan, which would likely include getting higher priority than the other company if they want to get those discs from Sony.

And to add something, it would be a little strange for any of the big 6 studios to want to try to kill the next gen format. To try to win for one side is one thing, but to try to kill the format they know is going to win would be ridiculous. They want a healthy disc format in a few years too. None of those studios should want both HD disc formats to be unhealthy.

--Darin

HDM is unhealthy, thats my point. And with VOD, PCs, iTunes video and the slew of cheap DVD players out there it is poised to stay this way. DVD never had the competition

My point is that if Sony is smart they will do whatever it takes to obtain both studios and quit the smug nonsense most people seem to champion on here. They won, now they need to be gracefull and throw some offers at paramount, Uni and Toshiba and end this. Cutting of their nose to spite their face at this point will result in another failed Sony proprietary format.

Please go read about the Prisoner's Dilemma here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

Unless Paramount and Universal get together to try to create a united front against Sony, Sony can just divide them knowing that they both want to release on Blu-ray if it is going to win. And if those 2 try to get together, Sony can just target the retailers at this point, knowing that the retailers want one format and the Warner decision is good reason for them to make that Blu-ray. Universal caved to Blockbuster in the past and I bet they would cave to Best Buy. Any negotiated for Sony worth his salt should be able to close out a win here by the middle of the year without writing those big checks to Toshiba, Paramount, or Universal. I could see Universal getting maybe $20 million now, but I doubt they could demand a lot more than that. Their management could have gotten a lot more a few weeks ago, but they let that opportunity pass. Now they could let the next opportunity pass too if they let the retailers or Paramount step in front of them in the negotiation line.

For any movie that you can point to that is the type that will do well on HDM, the problem is that the studios want them to do well on HDM, but at this point they won't if they are HD DVD exclusive. I almost wish there was a big HD DVD exclusive coming up soon, just so we could see how much poorer sales would be after the Warner announcement.

--Darin

You are a sharp one Darin! I am enjoying our discussions.

Again though, I think you are neglecting to acknowledge the power that these studios have right now. I think Blockbuster was much further along than Blu is right now when Para finally gave in (and the landscape is much different now anyways).

Hollywood is run by ego. Sony has shown considerable arrogance in allowing it to get this far, Warner has made a few enemies in Paramount and Uni. I really don't think that Paramount or Uni need 100,000 HDM sales (most of which would likely devour their own SD sales anyways) as much as Blu needs the studios at this point.

Darin,

I don't disagree that HD is on its way out. Even if they cannot sell HD DVDs the studios wield great power and it is really in Toshiba's best interest that Blu-Ray fail (as Blu succeeds it will eat away at DVD royalties). Understand that Blu has access to no more movies today than they did a week ago. I imagine both Uni and Para want in. But Sony will need to write some more checks. I just hope they are willing to in a reasonable time frame.

Exactly. Just like Sony got shafted on the DVD specs which led to Toshiba raking in oodles of royalty checks, BD can now obtain the same fortune.

Why would Toshiba give in? They may lose out on this gen of HDM but they stand to replace themselves during the next round if optical media has a place in our tech world.

People are looking at short-term ramifications. If Toshiba caves in it essentially means they can lose out for generations on royalties and be Sony's lapdpog for many cycles of tech, much like Sony was to Toshiba during and currently due to DVD.

And to add something, it would be a little strange for any of the big 6 studios to want to try to kill the next gen format. To try to win for one side is one thing, but to try to kill the format they know is going to win would be ridiculous. They want a healthy disc format in a few years too. None of those studios should want both HD disc formats to be unhealthy. Plus, Toshiba would have to throw good money away (keep building and selling players, advertising, paying for end caps, etc.) in order to really try to spoil the game for Sony.

--Darin


No one is suggesting they want to kill it. We are suggesting that they may have the power to. I say that ONLY to point out the negotiating power they still have. I have been unable to convey in a three page thread that this is all about negotiating power and how much the remaining companies can come away from this mess with. I think Paramount and Uni will both find their way free of their HD oppressers (at this point their contracts might as well be shackles). The question is will Toshiba sell out while they still hold sway over the remaining two studios (they may still get a price and could then include the contracts in a sell off of the HDM division).

If Warner going Blu, was not the Deathblow for HDDVD, then the Media blitz about it will be. It does not matter, what media outlet you go to for your information. I have heard it on TV, Radio, Satellite, internet, etc. The average consumer, does not go to AVS, or even read Sound and Vision. They watch the evening news, or the drive at 5 on the radio. If they have not already been made aware of it, someone at work might bring it up, when talking about their new HDTV, or a pissed off person, who stood in line to buy the $99 HDA2 at Wallyworld. Only to find out, the will now have nothing to watch in HD. Face it people, if only 2 studios are behind the format, you are kinda limiting what you have to watch. And in another 6 months, when Blu Ray has even more players in peoples homes, do you think the 2 studios HD has left, are going to miss out on more of the already limited revenue HDM is generating currently? For that matter lets look at the list the OP posted. So Blue Ray is not going to be able to compete with these titles on DVD. Most of those movies, most likely will not do good on DVD.

No one is suggesting they want to kill it. We are suggesting that they may have the power to. I say that ONLY to point out the negotiating power they still have. I have been unable to convey in a three page thread that this is all about negotiating power and how much the remaining companies can come away from this mess with. I think Paramount and Uni will both find their way free of their HD oppressers (at this point their contracts might as well be shackles). The question is will Toshiba sell out while they still hold sway over the remaining two studios (they may still get a price and could then include the contracts in a sell off of the HDM division).

I understand :) And I agree 100%. I don't think they will kill HDM nor do I want them to, but to assume the power is in the BDs hands concerning negotiations is short-sighted.

Sony quit out on Betamax when VCRs achieved a 70:30 lead in marketshare.

Expect a Toshiba BD player to be announced by christmas.

Most of you around here know me as a Red supporter (albeit a reasonable one I would hope). Even I can see the writing on the wall and admit that HD can no longer win the war. The thing is, they can still make sure that Sony doesn't win too. I stated a long time ago that if Warner went Blu it would be a death blow. In my estimation at this point it is just about splitting up the pie.

There is no reason for Toshiba to "just give it up" at this point. They still hold a LOT of big cards. In order for Blu-Ray to become the presumptive successor they need to have all the studios behind them. Presumably, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal are all committed through the next holiday season, though a solid offer to Toshiba could change all that. Without Toshiba playing ball HD DVD can make sure that all the following do not make it to Blu Ray this year:

Iron Man
Indiana Jones (don't argue with me on this one-No WAY when the studio is under contract could they release it on a competing format. VERY unlikely is would make it to HD, but if so inclined I am sure it could be seen to that it doesn't make it to BD)
Mummy 3
Kung Fu Panda
Hulk
Wanted
Hellboy 2
Tropic Thunder
Cloverfield
Spiderwick Chronicles
Drillbit Taylor
Leatherheads
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Death Race
Eagle Eye
There will be Blood
American Gangster

Frankly, that is a very strong list and a list Blu cannot go to battle against SD DVD without.

This isn't about Toshiba still trying to win. This is about trying to get a piece of the pie. If Warner is worth 500M, how much is Toshiba worth? Is it worth waiting another year until the contracts expire? Can HDM wait another year??

The notion that Toshiba should slink away with its tail between its legs is absurd. They still hold keys that BD needs. I am sure they can get a decent price for them.


With no Paramount movies announced at CES I doubt Toshiba has the power to spoil anything. The ball has been permanently removed from Toshiba's court after they botched negotiations with Warner.

Its totally irrelevant if HD-DVD thinks they're still alive or not.

Its like a man who is bleeding to death after having been fatally shot. He can scream "Im alive!" all he wants and refuse to accept that he is going to die.

Guess what?

He IS going to die. Whether he accepts it or not is irrelevant.

Him thinking he isnt going to die doesn't change the fact.

Im trying to be sympathetic to the HD-DVD camp, but when I see threads like this one all I can think of is the above scenario.

Do yourself a favor and move on.

I guarantee Universal will be.

The question is will Toshiba sell out while they still hold sway over the remaining two studios (they may still get a price and could then include the contracts in a sell off of the HDM division).Do you mean Paramount and Dreamworks or are you still assuming they hold sway over Universal? I don't think they hold much sway over Universal at this point. The weak release schedule for Universal late in Q4 (other than their day-and-date stuff) and into Q1 here is just one indicator IMO.

As I see it, if Universal goes neutral or exclusive the threat that Toshiba has left at the negotiating table is mostly that they can threaten to waste their own money, when Sony will know that such a tactic would not make Toshiba executives look good to their shareholders. I'm really curious to see if Toshiba will announce how much they lost on this stuff in Q4. They could justify that when they had a chance to win, but when the chance to win disappears they will just look like fools to continue to lose big money quarter after quarter. And I don't think they can sell very many players without losing big money on them, and even with losing big money on them the number of players they would be able to sell would be limited.

Anybody think Best Buy will be willing to go on as it was before the Warner announcement, with many of their employees recommending HD DVD players to customers? Toshiba needs to figure out what they want to be selling in Best Buy in a year or two (amongst the realistic choices, not fantasy choices). I also doubt that Costco will continue selling HD DVD players, with Costco's great return policy, unless Toshiba is willing to eat any returns (and even then Costco may not be willing to sell those players to their members, with the given circumstances).

--Darin

Do you mean Paramount and Dreamworks or are you still assuming they hold sway over Universal? I don't think they hold much sway over Universal at this point. The weak release schedule for Universal late in Q4 (other than their day-and-date stuff) and into Q1 here is just one indicator IMO.

As I see it, if Universal goes neutral or exclusive the threat that Toshiba has left at the negotiating table is mostly that they can threaten to waste their own money, when Sony will know that such a tactic would not make Toshiba executives look good to their shareholders. I'm really curious to see if Toshiba will announce how much they lost on this stuff in Q4. They could justify that when they had a chance to win, but when the chance to win disappears they will just look like fools to continue to lose big money quarter after quarter. And I don't think they can sell very many players without losing big money on them, and even with losing big money on them the number of players they would be able to sell would be limited.

Anybody think Best Buy will be willing to go on as it was before the Warner announcement, with many of their employees recommending HD DVD players to customers? Toshiba needs to figure out what they want to be selling in Best Buy in a year or two (amongst the realistic choices, not fantasy choices). I also doubt that Costco will continue selling HD DVD players, with Costco's great return policy, unless Toshiba is willing to eat any returns.

--Darin

+1

NO! I am suggesting that it may be in Toshiba's best interests to hold the Uni/Para/DW ransom so that BD doesn't get it without paying. Sony has proven they are willing to pay, having invested 7-8B in their PS3/BD department. I am merely saying that the idea that they should just walk away is ludicrous when they still hold significant power over many of the summer's biggest titles.

Maybe Toshiba could use one of their submarines and extort money form the BDA or face a nuclear attack, Ernst Blofeld style.

Maybe Toshiba could use one of their submarines and extort money form the BDA or face a nuclear attack, Ernst Blofeld style.

Glad to see you still have a sense of humor!!!

The question is will Toshiba sell out while they still hold sway over the remaining two studios (they may still get a price and could then include the contracts in a sell off of the HDM division).Do you have any evidence that Universal is in a HD DVD contract for the rest of this year?

quite true. But guess what, according to David Vaughn, only 5 titles have exceed the 100K mark, 3 BD and 2 HD.

so, in that context, HDM is not doing all that well in general, and I am not entirely convinced that will change with this announcement.

One didnt see significant increases in volumes until all the BOGOs hit. The studios are in a bit of a bind, the studios do not want to see an MSRP of $15-20 on HDM because they wont make much money, OTOH, it seems as if people were not buying a lot of discs at $30 a pop.

I think he meant on the first week. I am sure alot of titles have exceeded 100,000 at this stage.

No, actually he was talking about since inception. The teapot for this tempest is actually that small.

HDM is not a big money-maker right now. In fact, on most releases, the studios are probably losing money. There is no hurry, from a financial perspective, for Universal and Paramount to do much of anything right now. They could support or not support Blu-ray and, despite that, release no movies. They could first reduce their HD DVD releases and then discontinue HD DVD later this year, without releasing a single movie on Blu-ray.

Universal, given its long history with Sony, is probably reluctant to hand over royalties and replication to Sony at this time. Sony would not subsidize production of Universal disks, to be sure. Universal will "get on the train" eventually, but there is no hurry. It will probably take at least a year or two, if everything goes right, for Blu-ray to become mainstream.

Paramount is in a tough situation. Even if they return to Blu-ray, they are not going to make buckets of cash on their releases this year. The market is still too small by DVD standards. It is possible that Paramount quit Blu-ray partly because the subsidies ran out. Without new subsidies, Paramount would do well (as would Universal) to wait until production costs go down, more replication lines are built, yield improves, and the installed base gets larger.

Toshiba has the toughest problem. They have factories making tens of thousands of players, and they have done nearly all of the R&D for these players. They also have unsold stock, debts, rebates to honor, players to fix under warranty, and the like. Furthermore, there may be many open box returned units that go back to Toshiba to resell as refurbished.

They will probably have to simply eat these financial and PR losses. Certain execs, particularly those in marketing, will see the door. I doubt that Toshiba will introduce a next generation line of players. I also doubt they will make a dual format of Blu-ray player anytime soon. They can save money by not doing more R&D on a new format at this time, and I doubt Sony will give them a platform read-made.

This is not unprecedented. Even some of the Blu-ray partners, such as Pioneer, have not exactly ramped up production.

In a word, Toshiba, Universal, and Paramount don't have to do much of anything this year. There is no rush to the Blu-ray bandwagon. Let BD get all the kinks out, the profiles finished, the replication lines built, the BD-J streamlined, and then start to produce BD players and movies -- maybe in 2009.

At this point, it would be silly to tell Toshiba they have to go Blu-ray in order to save HDM. Toshiba's try at HDM didn't make it. HDM is not some religious ideal that must be supported at all costs. Toshiba doesn't have a stake in the game at present. Edit to add: If anything, Toshiba's stake is with DVD; so the push for HDM to replace DVD could be a losing proposition for Toshiba.

Universal could wait until BD gets big enough that not every studio has to use mostly Sony's BD 50 replication lines. They might start up their own lines. Their support of BD might be as Sony-free as possible (except for the many royalties Sony will collect).

I think that Universal and Paramount have to go Blu-ray, but they don't have to do it right now. They can wait until it the payoff is much greater. Who knows? By then, maybe Toshiba will be marketing a usb drive format for movies to all the studios. The beauty is that they wouldn't need scratch coating and are extremely small.

I don't really understand you people.
All the bd-ers have been high fiving each other since Friday because Warner is the deathblow.
This would seem to imply that there is NOTHING that Universal and Paramount can do to stop the inevitable. If That is the case, why does anyone care what they do since it won't matter one way or the other?
How can Bd possibly lose if it is in such an overwhelmingly superior position?
Or is Bd at its heart, a hollow straw man imposing only due to incessant PR?
Also- I don;t understand why people are suddenly against the idea that a company should act in a way that benefits itself first, and everyone else second.
Thats not the way the BDA operates, why should HD DVD be any different?
Of course people are then going to reply that Tosh is trying to kill it for everyone out of pique. horseshit. Either you believe the war is over now and Tosh is irrelevant, or else you believe that even with the 2000 lb gorilla that is warner, Bd is a much weaker entity than all its supporters have been claiming it was the last 18 months.
Be a little more consistent here in your victory celebrations.

CoolHand,
Nice try. How about a legal perspective from a practicing lawyer to help out?

Folks, a contract is a contract is a contract. Toshiba has contract with those studios to put out movies exclusively for HD in the HD-DVD format. Certainly, there are such things as escape clauses, but the law likes to enforce a contract. So, if Sony wanted to show unanimous adoption of a standard, somebody would have to pay.

Sony is the most likely candidate. Why? The studios don't stand to make much money by losing out on what will continue to be niche sales for the time-being. But Sony does stand to lose a lot by not encouraging fast adoption of the B-R standard. Just because HD-DVD is on life-support and in a coma doesn't make B-R an instant success. What CoolHand is saying is that the past years of fighting have created consumer confusion and people aren't frankly sold on B-R, in part due to the confusion and in part because they just aren't buying it. So, in a real sense, B-R is like a new born also on life support just not in a coma.

The surest way to evolve the standard is to get everybody on board tomorrow. To do that, the entities under contract will want to be paid off. It's that simple. Markets won't dictate the breach of a contract unless it is a good business decision. Remember breach of a contract means lots of money spent on litigation and settlement costs.

Further, it is even more complicated than that for Sony. Just not cheap enough - those $99 Players are still a couple of years away. With the loss of HD-DVD as an effective counter-balance, prices are bound to be stuck north of $200 or even $250 for sometime. The price target for next Christmas will be $200 or $229 maybe.

Critical prices range however will be sub $99 and that is a ways off. I think that HD-DVD has already proved that. The problem now for Sony is that they don't want to cannabilize their PS3 sales. If players get too cheap, folks that would have bought PS3's will buy players which are stand-alone if the gaming function isn't too important to them. Sony is still in a real pickle here in some ways. They stole from Peter to pay Paul. With the release of Profile 1.1, most Blu-Ray players do what 95% of owners expect them to do...play movies and the odd special feature.

I really look for the Xbox and Wii to have much lower their prices roughly 2 weeks before the release of Sony's star PS3 game titles this summer and again right before Christmas '08. Further, MS may also begin selling Blu-Ray drive support by making an update to VISTA. It has always been my opinion that MS wants to win the console and digital distribution war more than anything. They've never cared about the medium in earnest.

Additionally, I also believe they will drop the HD-DVD drive soon!!! Look for a fire-sale. They (MS) want digital downloading as the only mechanism of the future. Eerily enough, they are well-positioned for it and have deep enough pockets to make it happen.

In other not well publicized news, Apple, Cisco and NetFlix among others are talking of $150 and cheaper seamless streaming boxes for movies. I suspect they could be sold even cheaper as a loss adoption mechanism since most of the hardware is already ready to go.

Today, Blu-Ray has a day in the sun. But there are clouds on the horizon for the future and it is not a clear view of whats ahead. These are interesting times indeed. Interesting times indeed. :-) Digitial downloading and distribution is only a part of the danger that HDM faces here.

The ultimate insult to injury would be a failure to launch. Just because HD-DVD rocket boosters failed to fire and it appears to be crashing back into the sea...don't get all too happy when B-R has yet to leave the gravitational pull yet either! I've got a dual-format machine, but lord knows I don't want it to turn into a laserdisc player!!

That's all CoolHand is really saying.

Glad to see you still have a sense of humor!!!

Here's another zinger:

HDDVD's new ad campaign:
http://www.cineclub.de/images/2000/the_green_mile_2.jpg

Dead Man Walking, but barely

bombzombie and webphilosopher, those were two great posts I was sandwiched in the middle of!

I agree 100% with your conclusions. Out of HDDVD, th only entity that stands to lose money now is Tosh. Uni and Paramount , for what they lose in potential Bd sales, they likely make up most of that in additional DVD sales. Only for a hardcore minority is it a question of Blu-ray or nothing. For the majority, they'll happily take DVD, and if the margins are better, I'm sure the studios would actually prefer that now.
If Sony wants to payoff Tosh to release the studios from their contracts, and if Tosh finds that an acceptable figure, then sure they should cash out.

But if i were Tosh, I would make Sony pay for the victory...at least enough to cover expenses.

The fact is that if Toshiba can get Universal and Paramount to hang on, they will still stalemate this and make it a dual format world.

Translation:

"You aren't really a true HD consumer whore, willing to throw money at whoever fulfills your immediate HD addiction, are you?"

Hmmm. You say this as if it were a BAD thing. :D

The fact is that if Toshiba can get Universal and Paramount to hang on, they will still stalemate this and make it a dual format world.

Please get a reality check.....It is over. Take advantage of the disc swap when it happens, get a BLu Ray player and go onto watching movies.

And why the heck would Paramount and Universal even want to hang on... There are far more buyers on the Blu side and why would they want to associate their product with the losing side?

Well, that's just great. "HDDVD can't win - but at least it is possible they can sabotage Blu-Ray, so no HDM format becomes mainstream".

Luckily, I don't think this is true. You are putting way too much trust in the loyalty of Universal and Paramount. HDDVD SAL player sales will stagnate since public opinion is that Blu-Ray is winning, and the studios want to sell more copies of their movies, so they are basically going to be forced to go neutral at a minimum.

What do you think Universal will do when they sell 200 000 of their most popular movie, while Warner sells 800 000 of their most popular title...?

My (educated) guess is:
1. One or more major retailers will totally remove HDDVD players from their selection, and most if not all HDDVD titles as well.
2. Heavy BD marketing (if Sony paid 500M to Warner, bet your ass that it was money for commercials etc..)
3. Lower player pricing - Funai is going to sell a BD player for under 300 msrp. You can already buy a sharp BD player for $299
4. PS3 continues to sell

==> Public will steer away from HDDVD ==> Uni/Para sees the writing on the wall, and want to sell more copies ==> One or both go Neutral ==> HDDVD is capitulating.

Toshiba should start designing a kickass DF player right now, instead of being the last one on the block, next year some time...

I have to say that your list is absolutely funny.

1. First of all no retailer will TOTALLY REMOVE HD DVD.. It's competely ridiculous to think that. A million + users and a bunch of movies not available on Blu-Ray guarantee that. Wake up. What you wish for and what's reality are 2 different things. Even if HD DVD loses all studio support you will still be able to buy HD DVD movies until they are phased out. Sorry to burst your reality bubble.

2. Of course that marketing will work, just the same for Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks releases which is about 40% of market share in catalog titles.

3. That lower player pricing is pathetic. $300 for FUNAI.. are you freakin' kidding me? Toshiba releases HD DVD player for $99 nobody sane will buy a $300 3rd class player. HD DVD is STILL HD-DVD and you have no idea what kind of deals Toshiba has with retailers. Garbage BD players at this point (except Panasonic BD30 at $500) are a bad deal either way you look at it. That FUNAI is Profile 1.1 yes, but it's still a freakin' FUNAI and it costs $300!

4. Yeah, it'll continue to sell about 50k units a month as before $100 drop. PS3 already lost any chances of being dominant. Microsoft is already working on a new Xbox 720 or whatever it's gonna be called titled. They say new console will be anounced in 2009 while still selling Xbox 360. PS3 is done for in that regard, they will never be able to catch up, courtesy of Blu-Ray.

Your desires are understandable as you really want badly for Blu-Ray to win, but if Toshiba decides, Blu-Ray will not win, you can be sure of that. They have MORE MONEY! Sony on the other hand is already bleeding pretty bad and selling their share left and right to Arabs to finance deals like Warner. Wake up my man.

Do you mean Paramount and Dreamworks or are you still assuming they hold sway over Universal? I don't think they hold much sway over Universal at this point. The weak release schedule for Universal late in Q4 (other than their day-and-date stuff) and into Q1 here is just one indicator IMO.

As I see it, if Universal goes neutral or exclusive the threat that Toshiba has left at the negotiating table is mostly that they can threaten to waste their own money, when Sony will know that such a tactic would not make Toshiba executives look good to their shareholders. I'm really curious to see if Toshiba will announce how much they lost on this stuff in Q4. They could justify that when they had a chance to win, but when the chance to win disappears they will just look like fools to continue to lose big money quarter after quarter. And I don't think they can sell very many players without losing big money on them, and even with losing big money on them the number of players they would be able to sell would be limited.

Anybody think Best Buy will be willing to go on as it was before the Warner announcement, with many of their employees recommending HD DVD players to customers? Toshiba needs to figure out what they want to be selling in Best Buy in a year or two (amongst the realistic choices, not fantasy choices). I also doubt that Costco will continue selling HD DVD players, with Costco's great return policy, unless Toshiba is willing to eat any returns (and even then Costco may not be willing to sell those players to their members, with the given circumstances).

--Darin

I have seen way too many posts suggesting that I don't know its over. Of course its over. I returned over $1000 worth of HD stuff in the past 4 days (three players and ~24 HD DVDs to Amazon, several box sets I hadn't opened, etc), and have purchased 14 BDs. The towel was thrown as soon as the thread was confirmed. What I am talking about in this thread is how the "losers" are going to fare as this pie is broken up. Sony needs to take care of them (atleast the studios) or risks further alienating companies who clearly do not like them or their model. Otherwise this could take some time and slow BDA's momentum here.

I think you are underestimating the attachment Uni has with HD. I don't know what contracts are in place but they were the ONLY HD studio for a long time when HD was getting crushed. They could easily have given up (and probably should have). If they adopt BD it will be very slow. Maybe I am being presumptuous but I do think there is a strong pull (likely contractual) with Uni.

Please get a reality check.....It is over. Take advantage of the disc swap when it happens, get a BLu Ray player and go onto watching movies.

And why the heck would Paramount and Universal even want to hang on... There are far more buyers on the Blu side and why would they want to associate their product with the losing side?

Why do I need a third BD player?:confused:

There is not a single movie that Paramount or Universal can release that will combat anything that has happened in the last 4 days. The only thing that could get them back into the war is getting STUDIOS to switch.

The fact is that if Toshiba can get Universal and Paramount to hang on, they will still stalemate this and make it a dual format world.


....of the nail with the hammer. Toshiba is just consilidating their position at present. They are probably hurting from lost future revenue, but they can quite honestly break even or limit losses on development costs just by forcing Sony to buy their silence.

Don't forget folks, Paramount made their decision on the premise that they wanted to help end consumer confusion, and then they promptly along with Disney and MGM inked a deal with MS for digital distribution. B-R has just solidified the HDM market...they haven't solidified the future. Further, I am shocked that many PS3 fans refuse to acknowledge that even Sony is hedging their bets by offering distribution on their Sony store.

Honestly, the future for media appears bleek or at least format neutral. I must recognize this even as I have a very expensive combo player. The future is very unsettled....and to be successful Sony must do more than merely say that it is settled.

Here is a good comparison:

It's like selling a company still selling RPTV's. The sales are still good, but the writing is on the wall. Even where the picture is inferior, consumers are buying slim lcds and plasmas. If it was all about the best technology MP3s would have never taken off. The IPOD would be dead. But it isn't and the same is true for video content. It's just not as easy as kill HD-DVD and then B-R takes off. If that was the case, Microsoft would have long since put HD-DVD drives in their Xboxes (its a corollary argument).

CoolHand,
Nice try. How about a legal perspective from a practicing lawyer to help out?

Folks, a contract is a contract is a contract. Toshiba has contract with those studios to put out movies exclusively for HD in the HD-DVD format. Certainly, there are such things as escape clauses, but the law likes to enforce a contract. So, if Sony wanted to show unanimous adoption of a standard, somebody would have to pay.

Sony is the most likely candidate. Why? The studios don't stand to make much money by losing out on what will continue to be niche sales for the time-being. But Sony does stand to lose a lot by not encouraging fast adoption of the B-R standard. Just because HD-DVD is on life-support and in a coma doesn't make B-R an instant success. What CoolHand is saying is that the past years of fighting have created consumer confusion and people aren't frankly sold on B-R, in part due to the confusion and in part because they just aren't buying it. So, in a real sense, B-R is like a new born also on life support just not in a coma.

The surest way to evolve the standard is to get everybody on board tomorrow. To do that, the entities under contract will want to be paid off. It's that simple. Markets won't dictate the breach of a contract unless it is a good business decision. Remember breach of a contract means lots of money spent on litigation and settlement costs.

Further, it is even more complicated than that for Sony. Just not cheap enough - those $99 Players are still a couple of years away. With the loss of HD-DVD as an effective counter-balance, prices are bound to be stuck north of $200 or even $250 for sometime. The price target for next Christmas will be $200 or $229 maybe.

Critical prices range however will be sub $99 and that is a ways off. I think that HD-DVD has already proved that. The problem now for Sony is that they don't want to cannabilize their PS3 sales. If players get too cheap, folks that would have bought PS3's will buy players which are stand-alone if the gaming function isn't too important to them. Sony is still in a real pickle here in some ways. They stole from Peter to pay Paul. With the release of Profile 1.1, most Blu-Ray players do what 95% of owners expect them to do...play movies and the odd special feature.

I really look for the Xbox and Wii to have much lower their prices roughly 2 weeks before the release of Sony's star PS3 game titles this summer and again right before Christmas '08. Further, MS may also begin selling Blu-Ray drive support by making an update to VISTA. It has always been my opinion that MS wants to win the console and digital distribution war more than anything. They've never cared about the medium in earnest.

Additionally, I also believe they will drop the HD-DVD drive soon!!! Look for a fire-sale. They (MS) want digital downloading as the only mechanism of the future. Eerily enough, they are well-positioned for it and have deep enough pockets to make it happen.

In other not well publicized news, Apple, Cisco and NetFlix among others are talking of $150 and cheaper seamless streaming boxes for movies. I suspect they could be sold even cheaper as a loss adoption mechanism since most of the hardware is already ready to go.

Today, Blu-Ray has a day in the sun. But there are clouds on the horizon for the future and it is not a clear view of whats ahead. These are interesting times indeed. Interesting times indeed. :-) Digitial downloading and distribution is only a part of the danger that HDM faces here.

The ultimate insult to injury would be a failure to launch. Just because HD-DVD rocket boosters failed to fire and it appears to be crashing back into the sea...don't get all too happy when B-R has yet to leave the gravitational pull yet either! I've got a dual-format machine, but lord knows I don't want it to turn into a laserdisc player!!

That's all CoolHand is really saying.

Thank you for your elegant translation.

I'm not going to argue about the Speilberg movies. I think that is a small point at this juncture. I don't presume that Indy would make it to HD but there is no way that if Paramount/DW is still around at that time that it would go to BD. I happen to think it is immaterial as I hope this is worked out before September.

It seems to me that "The Spielberg Clause", if it actually exists, would be an irresistable opportunity for Paramount to have its cake and eat it too. Assuming that their agreement with the HD-DVD camp was strictly motivated by $$$ rather than a fundamental rejection of the BD format, the next Indiana Jones movie would be the perfect vehicle for Paramount to test their return to the BD camp without violating their HD-DVD exclusivity agreement.

In fact, isn't Paramount just the distributor for the Indiana Jones franchise rather than it's producer? I'm unclear as to whether Lucasfilm has the same arrangement with Paramount as it does with Fox regarding the Star Wars films. If it is Lucasfilm that holds the reigns, we probably won't be seeing any of the Indy movies on any HDM format for some time to come.

HDM is not a big money-maker right now. In fact, on most releases, the studios are probably losing money. There is no hurry, from a financial perspective, for Universal and Paramount to do much of anything right now. They could support or not support Blu-ray and, despite that, release no movies. They could first reduce their HD DVD releases and then discontinue HD DVD later this year, without releasing a single movie on Blu-ray.

Universal, given its long history with Sony, is probably reluctant to hand over royalties and replication to Sony at this time. Sony would not subsidize production of Universal disks, to be sure. Universal will "get on the train" eventually, but there is no hurry. It will probably take at least a year or two, if everything goes right, for Blu-ray to become mainstream.

Paramount is in a tough situation. Even if they return to Blu-ray, they are not going to make buckets of cash on their releases this year. The market is still too small by DVD standards. It is possible that Paramount quit Blu-ray partly because the subsidies ran out. Without new subsidies, Paramount would do well (as would Universal) to wait until production costs go down, more replication lines are built, yield improves, and the installed base gets larger.

Toshiba has the toughest problem. They have factories making tens of thousands of players, and they have done nearly all of the R&D for these players. They also have unsold stock, debts, rebates to honor, players to fix under warranty, and the like. Furthermore, there may be many open box returned units that go back to Toshiba to resell as refurbished.

They will probably have to simply eat these financial and PR losses. Certain execs, particularly those in marketing, will see the door. I doubt that Toshiba will introduce a next generation line of players. I also doubt they will make a dual format of Blu-ray player anytime soon. They can save money by not doing more R&D on a new format at this time, and I doubt Sony will give them a platform read-made.

This is not unprecedented. Even some of the Blu-ray partners, such as Pioneer, have not exactly ramped up production.

In a word, Toshiba, Universal, and Paramount don't have to do much of anything this year. There is no rush to the Blu-ray bandwagon. Let BD get all the kinks out, the profiles finished, the replication lines built, the BD-J streamlined, and then start to produce BD players and movies -- maybe in 2009.

At this point, it would be silly to tell Toshiba they have to go Blu-ray in order to save HDM. Toshiba's try at HDM didn't make it. HDM is not some religious ideal that must be supported at all costs. Toshiba doesn't have a stake in the game at present. Edit to add: If anything, Toshiba's stake is with DVD; so the push for HDM to replace DVD could be a losing proposition for Toshiba.

Universal could wait until BD gets big enough that not every studio has to use mostly Sony's BD 50 replication lines. They might start up their own lines. Their support of BD might be as Sony-free as possible (except for the many royalties Sony will collect).

I think that Universal and Paramount have to go Blu-ray, but they don't have to do it right now. They can wait until it the payoff is much greater. Who knows? By then, maybe Toshiba will be marketing a usb drive format for movies to all the studios. The beauty is that they wouldn't need scratch coating and are extremely small.


VERY WELL SAID.

There is an assumption that the remaining studios need to bail now and run to BluRay immediately. The truth is there is really no reason for them to do so. There is no real money to be made at this point in BD (assuming Sony stiffs them) and possible litigation for the contracts they are under. Paramount will see more money for not releasing anything but a few major releases on HD and collecting marketing incentives for their new releases (which will benefit their SD even more).

The truth is (and this is what I am trying to get across) the BDA needs them far more than they need the BDA.

Its totally irrelevant if HD-DVD thinks they're still alive or not.

Its like a man who is bleeding to death after having been fatally shot. He can scream "Im alive!" all he wants and refuse to accept that he is going to die.

Guess what?

He IS going to die. Whether he accepts it or not is irrelevant.

Him thinking he isnt going to die doesn't change the fact.

Im trying to be sympathetic to the HD-DVD camp, but when I see threads like this one all I can think of is the above scenario.

Do yourself a favor and move on.

I guarantee Universal will be.


You haven't read a single one of my posts. I never said HD wasn't dead. I said I returned multiple players and $600 worth of SW. I said I bought 14 BDs. All this thread is about is how the losing side was going to fare as the pie gets split up.

Don't speak to hear yourself talk. Speak to add something to a conversation.

I don't really understand you people.
All the bd-ers have been high fiving each other since Friday because Warner is the deathblow.
This would seem to imply that there is NOTHING that Universal and Paramount can do to stop the inevitable. If That is the case, why does anyone care what they do since it won't matter one way or the other?
How can Bd possibly lose if it is in such an overwhelmingly superior position?
Or is Bd at its heart, a hollow straw man imposing only due to incessant PR?
Also- I don;t understand why people are suddenly against the idea that a company should act in a way that benefits itself first, and everyone else second.
Thats not the way the BDA operates, why should HD DVD be any different?
Of course people are then going to reply that Tosh is trying to kill it for everyone out of pique. horseshit. Either you believe the war is over now and Tosh is irrelevant, or else you believe that even with the 2000 lb gorilla that is warner, Bd is a much weaker entity than all its supporters have been claiming it was the last 18 months.
Be a little more consistent here in your victory celebrations.

Excellent post, Paulidan. Since last Friday, AVS has been invaded by blu fans and shills who have been telling the HD DVD side that they have been defeated, humiliated and should surrender at once. It is so ugly that it makes me sympathize more with Toshiba.

If Warner had gone to HD DVD exclusive, how would blu-ray supporters like to be taunted so much?

I am format neutral but I still see that the HD DVD side can inflict a lot of damage to the BD side. Toshiba makes a lot of royalties from DVDs, so what would it gain by accepting BD's "victory" without compensation? Toshiba will not just walk away from the table with its head bowed down. I think that the BDA right now is looking at ways to appease Toshiba to get a graceful exit.

The truth is (and this is what I am trying to get across) the BDA needs them far more than they need the BDA.


WHOA! and congrats to you sir- that is fundemental point that Jeff, Joon and others don't realize.
This isn't about HD DVD winning anymore- it is about BDA not losing.

Of course, when you are celebrating a tremendous victory, the last thing you want to do is sober up and realize there is still plenty of work left to do. Best just to go on thinking as Jeff and the others do that the future we all want to see is assured at this point.

What if Sony continued to wait them out?

Toshiba may see the writing on the wall and decide to cut Paramount loose because they won't want to keep up their side of the contract either. It's costing Toshiba more to keep Paramount than they will ever see in royalties from their exclusives, after all.

I have to say that your list is absolutely funny.

1. First of all no retailer will TOTALLY REMOVE HD DVD.. It's competely ridiculous to think that. A million + users and a bunch of movies not available on Blu-Ray guarantee that. Wake up. What you wish for and what's reality are 2 different things. Even if HD DVD loses all studio support you will still be able to buy HD DVD movies until they are phased out. Sorry to burst your reality bubble.

2. Of course that marketing will work, just the same for Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks releases which is about 40% of market share in catalog titles.

3. That lower player pricing is pathetic. $300 for FUNAI.. are you freakin' kidding me? Toshiba releases HD DVD player for $99 nobody sane will buy a $300 3rd class player. HD DVD is STILL HD-DVD and you have no idea what kind of deals Toshiba has with retailers. Garbage BD players at this point (except Panasonic BD30 at $500) are a bad deal either way you look at it. That FUNAI is Profile 1.1 yes, but it's still a freakin' FUNAI and it costs $300!

4. Yeah, it'll continue to sell about 50k units a month as before $100 drop. PS3 already lost any chances of being dominant. Microsoft is already working on a new Xbox 720 or whatever it's gonna be called titled. They say new console will be anounced in 2009 while still selling Xbox 360. PS3 is done for in that regard, they will never be able to catch up, courtesy of Blu-Ray.

Your desires are understandable as you really want badly for Blu-Ray to win, but if Toshiba decides, Blu-Ray will not win, you can be sure of that. They have MORE MONEY! Sony on the other hand is already bleeding pretty bad and selling their share left and right to Arabs to finance deals like Warner. Wake up my man.

You wake up buddy, we have Warner :)

Most of you around here know me as a Red supporter (albeit a reasonable one I would hope). Even I can see the writing on the wall and admit that HD can no longer win the war. The thing is, they can still make sure that Sony doesn't win too. I stated a long time ago that if Warner went Blu it would be a death blow. In my estimation at this point it is just about splitting up the pie.

There is no reason for Toshiba to "just give it up" at this point. They still hold a LOT of big cards. In order for Blu-Ray to become the presumptive successor they need to have all the studios behind them. Presumably, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal are all committed through the next holiday season, though a solid offer to Toshiba could change all that. Without Toshiba playing ball HD DVD can make sure that all the following do not make it to Blu Ray this year:

Iron Man
Indiana Jones (don't argue with me on this one-No WAY when the studio is under contract could they release it on a competing format. VERY unlikely is would make it to HD, but if so inclined I am sure it could be seen to that it doesn't make it to BD)
Mummy 3
Kung Fu Panda
Hulk
Wanted
Hellboy 2
Tropic Thunder
Cloverfield
Spiderwick Chronicles
Drillbit Taylor
Leatherheads
Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Death Race
Eagle Eye
There will be Blood
American Gangster

Frankly, that is a very strong list and a list Blu cannot go to battle against SD DVD without.

This isn't about Toshiba still trying to win. This is about trying to get a piece of the pie. If Warner is worth 500M, how much is Toshiba worth? Is it worth waiting another year until the contracts expire? Can HDM wait another year??

The notion that Toshiba should slink away with its tail between its legs is absurd. They still hold keys that BD needs. I am sure they can get a decent price for them.

Put them all on a combo format exclusive in a standard black DVD case (abandon the red cases for now) and you've just sold a hundred million discs... just make sure the consumer knows they got a high-def version too...

Check mate.

I think that Toshiba is more worried about the next step in optical discs, meaning if Sony gains market share and influence through BD they will likely control and mandate the successor through royalties money and so on.

I hope Toshiba just accepts this and lives to fight another day, but this whole war stemmed from Sony wanting royalties and control enjoyed by Toshiba from the DVD format. It might suck for the consumer, but Toshiba has no reason to support BD...yet. The only way I see them sitting back and giving up is if BD really takes off and the money lost from not joining outweighs what the Sony can yirld in the future.

The problem with the latter rational is that's not the way it played out when Toshiba's SD standard was accepted as the standard for dvd and Sony's was rejected. Sony accepted the unfortunate loss of a royalty windfall and went about trying to establish a new format so the birth of Blu Ray - many years later. It sucked it up and built sd dvd players like everyone else. But in the meantime it wasn't until at least a couple of years later before the first commercial dvds were released. Tosh knew and knows royalties will be there in the new HDM format which is why they tried to compete with Sony in the new HDM area. It's rather disengenuous for them to now feign unbelief and continue with HD DVD when their support has eroded significantly with the Warner defection. Waiting for BD to take off is not realistic because there is a product out there which is outselling HD DVD 2:1. Unlike sd dvd where there was no product until a couple of years later.

There's not excuse for Toshiba but other than "taking it like a man". They lost this one. Instead of crying and taking their marbles going home it's time to get behind a unified format to challenge sd. Oh of course that means some royalty losses since they have benefited from its existence.

Put them all on a combo format exclusive in a standard black DVD case (abandon the red cases for now) and you've just sold a hundred million discs... just make sure the consumer knows they got a high-def version too...

Check mate.

Nah, they still need to have something on or in the case to show that it's SD & HD. Maybe a red Spine or something. Even with the Indy movies off that list, it's still one hell of a list that won't be out on BR until Feb 2009. Of course Blu-Ray Profile 2.0 might be out & ready by then, in which case it wouldn't be such a big deal.

I will bet you $1 that Panda hits $175M

You want in?

LOL. I thought the previews were okay, and I do think it will appeal to children. It's just a funny sounding title.

There's not excuse for Toshiba but other than "taking it like a man". They lost this one. Instead of crying and taking their marbles going home it's time to get behind a unified format to challenge sd. Oh of course that means some royalty losses since they have benefited from its existence.

Why would they take it like a man? Because you want to see a unified HD format? They don't have a studio. If Blu Ray becomes successful Toshiba would lose out on massive royalties from DVD. If anything it is in their best interest to become as big a thorn as possible. THIS IS NOT WHAT I WANT. I WANT BD TO SUCCEED. But there is still work to be done and Sony has a big bridge to restore (from fire damage) to get Uni back in the mix.

All of this has to cripple the sale of hd-dvd players.Who in their right mind is going to buy one with all the news coverage saying the format is dead.What retailer is going to want the customer to remember them as the one that sold them a player knowing that the format is near death.With no major anouncement of new releases what reason is there for anyone to want to buy one.

All of this has to cripple the sale of hd-dvd players.Who in their right mind is going to buy one with all the news coverage saying the format is dead.What retailer is going to want the customer to remember them as the one that sold them a player knowing that the format is near death.With no major anouncement of new releases what reason is there for anyone to want to buy one.

HAve you read any of this thread? It is not about the future of HD. It is about Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal's negotiating power and the need for the BDA to get them in the mix.

On the contrary CBS seems to be happy with the close to 100,000 units moving and has announced Season 2 and 3. Also they are contemplating the CSI series.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=971636


OWNED.

HD-DVD. The look and and sound of perfect Standard Definition DVD's.....Hell's Yeah !!!!!!...FTW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

HAve you read any of this thread? It is not about the future of HD. It is about Toshiba, Paramount, and Universal's negotiating power and the need for the BDA to get them in the mix.I've noticed this about the stereotypical Blu-ray fanboy... like a mind-numbed robot for the BDA, he himself seems incapable of even grasping that he no longer need fight. He seems unable to rescind his marching orders... as if locked in some malfunctioning "auto" mode.

This has been a fascinating thread.. I think the belief that Toshiba et al. is still in an effective bargaining position is well-founded.


What in the heck does Universal and Paramount have to gain by sticking it out with HD DVD when Blu Ray sells double the software and the HD DVD ship just hit the big ice berg??!! These studios are in it for the money, and there is a lot more money in Blu Ray / software sales.You know, bland, you've generally been a thorn in the side of the HD DVD community for as long as I can remember... but you've often made some good and reasoned points along the way. Which is why it floors me that you, of all Blu-fans, just aren't getting the point. You contend that Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks should defect to Blu-ray because it sells twice as many discs as HD DVD. Well, twice a pittance is just a litte bit less of a pittance. This, as a justification to switch, simply isn't tenable.


To the rest of you who still don't get it...

This is not about HD DVD marshaling for a possible offensive, it no longer possesses that capability... that is a given. But five years over in the sandbox teaches us all we need to know about an entrenched enemy... and that is what HD DVD is to Blu-ray now, and will be for as long as Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks are in its ranks.

What Blu-ray now needs is an exit strategy... one that is both reasonable and attractive enough to this entrenched enemy to convince it to sign the treaty. Absent one, the war languishes, every day eating away at precious time Blu-ray needs to become established.

Dumb question time: What's the down-side for Uni/Par/DW maintaining the status quo indefinitely? What if Ken and Megan convince their studios that siding with Blu-ray won't substantially improve their bottom line, and could end up costing them significantly because of BD licensing, disc fab, etc.? It's not as if HDM commands anything other than a tiny niche at present anyway... almost all of the home video sales for ALL of the studios are still made off of SD DVD.

And even if HD were to suddenly take off, and millions of BD players were sold...

Consider catalog titles. It's not as if there will suddenly be a large percentage of millions of J6P Blu-ray owners, with cash burning holes in their pockets, double- or triple-dipping for titles they already own on DVD.

New releases? Disney continued to release on VHS exclusively for years after DVD debuted before finally giving in. But even if history didn't repeat, the game is completely different this time around anyway in that you have a product with a backwards-compatible form factor, whose only real benefit is an improvement in PQ/AQ. With the fantastic upconversion capability some of today's players and HDTV's have, do you honestly believe that 98.44% of the general population (read "those who are not AVS members" ;)) are NOT going to purchase a wanted title, just because they can only get it on DVD and not on Blu-ray?

And BTW, just curious, where is all of this BD capacity to enable Blu-ray a balls-to-the-wall ramp-up and release schedule in 2008 anyway? What's the use of being a Blu studio if you're strangled by disc fab bottlenecks? Also, unless something has change over the past couple months, Sony itself has the only BD-50 fab plants getting usable yields. I, as a studio owner, would be absolutely terrified at the prospect of only having one option for getting my expensive HD discs replicated... and the devil that instigated this whole mess controlling it besides.

I agree 100% with coolhand... other than Sony et al. cutting some huge checks, what's the incentive, at this point time, for a studio to side with Blu-ray? Warner evidently knew this and milked it for all they could... it would be naive to think Uni/Par/DW and Toshiba, don't know it as well. The best thing they could possibly do is to stay banded together until they get their share.

Blu-ray has an unknown but finite window within which it must achieve sufficient market penetration and sales in order to have any hope of recouping the billions spent on its development, and fighting a format war, before it is eclipsed by electronic digital distribution (or whatever technology ultimately supplants it).

In the mean time, Toshiba still gets their royalty checks from DVD.

It is now a waiting game gentlemen, and for Blu-ray, the clock is ticking.

What in the heck does Universal and Paramount have to gain by sticking it out with HD DVD when Blu Ray sells double the software and the HD DVD ship just hit the big ice berg??!! These studios are in it for the money, and there is a lot more money in Blu Ray / software sales.

BD didn't sell double the Warner, Paramount or Universal titles. It only sold double the titles that are exclusive to it. That is if you can double nothing.

Put them all on a combo format exclusive in a standard black DVD case (abandon the red cases for now) and you've just sold a hundred million discs... just make sure the consumer knows they got a high-def version too...

Check mate.

exactly , make a look and sound of perfection and have someone famous say hey if u have a hd dvd player you could flip this disc over and see the movie in 1080p true hd

exactly , make a look and sound of perfection and have someone famous say hey if u have a hd dvd player you could flip this disc over and see the movie in 1080p true hd

The reason combos never worked was because they sat in their own special section with the HD-DVDs. The only person looking at combo discs was the person who already had a HD-DVD player.

They needed to be mixed in with the regular DVDs. I think the #1 reason for their failure was that and that alone. They should have been in the "old style" standard DVD case (maybe even make it red) but not in the new fancy HD-DVD cases and in a different section of the store.

The reason combos never worked was because they sat in their own special section with the HD-DVDs. The only person looking at combo discs was the person who already had a HD-DVD player.

They needed to be mixed in with the regular DVDs. I think the #1 reason for their failure was that and that alone. They should have been in the "old style" standard DVD case (maybe even make it red) but not in the new fancy HD-DVD cases and in a different section of the store.they don't need to be mixed in.


Look at it this way. When transformers came out , millions wanted it on dvd. They go to best buy and are directed to the hd dvd combo in the hd dvd side. Once there they wonder what this is all about and they see all these other titles that work on their dvd players but if they buy a toshiba hd dvd player they suddenly are high definiton copies .

Toshiba can still take advantage of this. They need to put this into affect now with each big movie they can throw at it and they need to lower the a-3 price to $100 so that its an each switch to the entry lvl hd dvd player.

Have parmount and universal release a few big titles lead up to their block busters and they should be fine. If they can keep %30-40 of the market they can last a very long time. Universal and Parmount would love it because those two companys will have all the hd dvd sales and will split %30-40 of the market where as disney , fox , mgm , warners would split 60-70% of the market