Why does everyone assume that digital downloads mean a PC connected to the internet?

Is a PC connected to the internet going to drive consumer sales. No and nobody in the industry is stupid enough to think so. I hate how ever discussion involving Digital Downloads (DD) always centers on "internet is too slow" or "not enough space" or "nobody watches movies on their computer.

I hope we can move beyond such stupid and short sighted concepts. First of all let me make it clear:
1) I don't think Digital Downloads will replace media within the next 20 years. I think it will "co-exist". I do think as time goes on and the "kinks" are worked out the market share of DD vs traditonal media will grow.

2) I do think that digital downloads will be a "techie" or "early adopter" solution for the near future. BD (and HD DVD) have nothing to "fear" from DD in the next 2-3 years.

I would like to bring up some ideas so we can have a more rational discussion:

There are 3 general methods consumers "consume" film/video content:
1) Purchases
2) Rental plan (aka netflix)
3) Rental per item (aka Blockbuster)

From easiest to hardest to implement it would be rental per item, rental plan, then lastly ownership. Just because today it is not viable to "own" content other than media doesn't mean that it isn't viable to rent or rent "plan" the same content. Not all consumers want to own "media". The younger generation is much more digitally focused and concepts like owning giant libraries of content that will be obsolete someday is less attractive than those accoustome to traditonal ownership.

We already are seeing digital rentals on a per item system (xbox live being the most accessible option). Per item was chosen first because it is the easiest to implement from a storage, bandwidth, and revenue sharing standpoint.

I think the next major shift will be towards an digital rental plan. Many people use netflix right now and the "download" (by postal mail) is about 2 days. A system that could download and queue up 10 titles would only require a 200GB hard drive ($70), a 500GB drive (good for 20-25 movies) would be only about $30 more. As users watch a movie the next movie in the queue would be transfered. A consumer with a 5Mbps connection could add 2-3 movies to their queue each day (based on 20GB per movie). So you would always have 10 movies to chose from and the next 2-3 would be added daily. Since 2-3 daily is like 60-90 monthly I think the limit would be something impossed by the studios rather than a bandwidth limitation. Something (i.e $19.95 plan is 30 movies monthly with 10 in queue locally, $24.95 plan is 60 movies monthly wiht 20 in queue).

Digital content will take numerous forms and will evolve over the next year. The first offerings will be limited HD VOD, xbox live, and move into more complex systems like "netflix online" model and Cable boxes where content is stored centrally but can be viewed multiple times with one puchase (i.e unlimited rental). Finally I have no doubt that in 10-20 years systems that enable consumers to purchase digital content for storage on a home media server or burning to optical disc will exists. They are the hardest to implement so likely will be the last to arrive.

People saying Digital content can't/won't happen is like people looking at BW TV with 3 OTA channels and saying that their NEVER will be color TV, NEVER be sat, NEVER be 200+ channels, NEVER be digital systems, NEVER be HDTV. Digital content has to start somewhere but it is inevitable as costs (storage, cpu, bandwidth) all drop over time (5, 10, 20, 50 years).

Two other concepts (both expensive and likely not ready for primetime but neither was HD DVD or BD in 2004).

Vudu:
A STB that allows movie to be either rented or bought. Currently in SD but Vudu plans to expand into 1080p24 HD soon. Prices currently are high and selection limited but it shows the potential using the slowest connection available (internet).

XStreamHD:
A STB that allows movies to be streamed by satalitte. Many people (incorrectly) assume that sat has limited bandwidth but that is only true because Dish & DirectTV are offering hundreds of channels (plus local channels in 100+ markets which is actually 3-4 local channels x 100 = 300-400 unique local channels).

The service has not launched yet but the concept is that a sat will stream HD films continuously and the STB will decode and store up to 1TB of content (enough space for 50 films @ 20GB ea). Pricing is likely to be a combination of per use rental and a flat rate plan. While it is unlikely that user's will have a netflix type "queue" (that would require 2 way communication) it may be possible that user's can select the content they like and STB chose a fraction of a larger number of choices. To stream 300 movies @ 20GB each monthly would require about 18Mbps sat feed which is a tiny fraction of current sat systems.

NameChamps ya better run the Blu boys will be here any second. :D

A full featured 2 hour Blu-Ray movie with all soundtracks and extras is only 20gb? I thought it was closer to 50...?

NameChamps ya better run the Blu boys will be here any second. :D

Followed closely by the red boys saying "hell yeah, this is where it's at!"


See I can do it too.

I do agree though, you are right in saying when this does happen it will not be via a PC. Whatever download service makes it, it will be going directly to a set top box in your HT system.

The only probablem I see with storage is reliability. Hard drives inevitably die and are very unreliable. What do you do if you lose 40 movies you just downloaded over the past few months due to a failure on your hard drive? Solid state is a VERY long ways away from replacing storage at these capacities so that will not be an option for at least 10 years...

Thoughts?

I agree that physical rentals will be the first to start disapearing quickly in the next few years. Physical sales will take much longer and will probably evolve to solid state media.

Everyone cries about music but CDs still hold the lions share of the market and that is a different marketplace with different drivers which cater more to a download type system.

I also do not see unlimited rentals for a $20 fee that people talk about here. That model has no profit in it. I see something much like Netflix with limits built into pricing tiers, limits much lower than what you propose. They will also be chock full of DRM and not be portable in any way whatsoever.

The download model will not be a cheap panacea of movies. The studios want to increase revenues, not decrease them!

A full featured 2 hour Blu-Ray movie with all soundtracks and extras is only 20gb? I thought it was closer to 50...?

Extras? Who in the heck wants extras?

Just give me the movie in English 5.1 DDTrue.

I also don't want 10 minutes of commercials like on every disney movie either.

So, if I don't use my existing internet connection for a download, I have to have another device as in a cablebox.

So, I must subscribe to digital cable with an HD premium to download HD movies.

You know what Comcast with HD costs me a month ?
$90+ with tax included.
J6P probably won't be dishing out this kind of cash and the prices keep climbing.
Comcast just had another price increase this month.


Right now, HD VOD is $5.99-7.99 for new releases and the PQ is better than SD but not as good as Blu-ray/HD DVD. VOD also lacks in the AQ department.
They also appear to be doing Pan and Scan of Widescreen movies and not transmitting the true aspect ratio of the movie.

Another thing is Comcast is already hurting from bandwidth and HD VOD is just taking off in my area. Meaning, most of the time when I try to watch HD VOD, I get an error to try a gain later but then I can watch the same movie on SD VOD.

Until we get fiber up to our doors, it will be a while before HD VOD is adopted.
I'd say give it another 10+ years for technology/equipment to arrive at our doors.
For now Blu-ray will do for HDM.

So, if I don't use my existing internet connection for a download, I have to have another device as in a cablebox.

So, I must subscribe to digital cable with an HD premium to download HD movies.

You know what Comcast with HD costs me a month ?
$90+ with tax included.
J6P probably won't be dishing out this kind of cash and the prices keep climbing.
Comcast just had another price increase this month.

So maybe you can use a service like XStreamHD. It is a standalone sat service. It has no "channels" it is just 1080p video & DTS-HD MA sent to a STB. What is the price. I don't know. For many a service like XStreamHD and OTA HD connected to an HD Tivo may provide more choice at 1/3 to 1/2 the cost of "traditional cable".

Another thing is Comcast is already hurting from bandwidth and HD VOD is just taking off in my area. Meaning, most of the time when I try to watch HD VOD, I get an error to try a gain later but then I can watch the same movie on SD VOD.70 Analog SD channels currently takes about 70% of the available bandwidth on the hybrid coax system. Moving to all digital will allow the cable companies about 6Gbps per node on the same coax connection. Moving to mpeg4 allows the number of channels/service to be increased in the same bandwidth. All that being said maybe comcast never gets it right and smaller hungrier companies get rich using sat, internet, fiber, fixed wireless (analog OTA is being auctioned off) to deliver the service you want that comcast can't. Isn't competition great? :D

I'd say give it another 10+ years for technology/equipment to arrive at our doors. For now Blu-ray will do for HDM.Agreed 100%. I love HD DVD and I think BD has the war won. I will be buying a BD player as soon as I get can get a BD2.0 player with good reviews for $499 or less. Based on what I see at CES I am optomistic it will be happening this year.

The timeline may be 5 years, 7 years, maybe your right and it is 12 years, or maybe we both are off and it is closer to 20. I am just brining up the point that often I see the words NEVER and NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH MOVIES ON A PC being used. I think we can both agree NEVER is a very long time and nobody with a brain in the industry thinks movies on a PC is the end goal.

I do agree though, you are right in saying when this does happen it will not be via a PC. Whatever download service makes it, it will be going directly to a set top box in your HT system.

The only probablem I see with storage is reliability. Hard drives inevitably die and are very unreliable. What do you do if you lose 40 movies you just downloaded over the past few months due to a failure on your hard drive? Solid state is a VERY long ways away from replacing storage at these capacities so that will not be an option for at least 10 years...

Thoughts?

No doubt storage reliability is a concern. This ia a major reason I think we will see three "waves" over the next decade. First pay per item. No or minimal storage needed. Next subscription services. If you have hardware failure you "lose" your queue or movies for the month but nothing you own. Lastly after years of experience, dropping hardware prices we may see a STB with 2 drives in RAID 1. Lose a drive it notifies you and you replace the bad drive with no content loss.

I am 100% positive the digital owned content will be the most difficult and slowest service to get off the ground. It has the largest challenges in terms of bandwidth, storage, reliability, and content recovery.

Holographic discs currently can store up to 1TB (at very high cost). Maybe the end game isn't HDD after all. Maybe 10-20 years from now your STB records purchased content to 5TB holographic discs.

I don't think any of this is going to replace HD media tomorrow. I just think it will happen someday and based on the amount of investment a lot of other companies (Sony, Microsoft, cable companies, Verizon, Vudu, XstreamHD, netflix, tivo, amazon) think so also.

A full featured 2 hour Blu-Ray movie with all soundtracks and extras is only 20gb? I thought it was closer to 50...?

None of these services likely will include extras. Does HBO air extras? Does HD On Demand show extras?

Looking at most BD movies the actual video is around 20GB. Why would a streaming service need to send 12 languages? How about in the STB setup you select the language you want and it only downloads that track? Or for the purists maybe an option like original language + subtitles for foreign films?

Everyone cries about music but CDs still hold the lions share of the market and that is a different marketplace with different drivers which cater more to a download type system.

Not to mention, music downloads have a provider with 70-80% of the market and a trendy piece of hardware to drive it. Will movies have the same advantage, or will the market be splintered into different providers and hardware brands?

Does HBO air extras?

http://www.canmag.com/images/front/tv/extras.jpg

yeah cause Moviebeam is just raking in the cash, right?:rolleyes:

Name the one flaw I see in your caculations it the fact with a 5Mbps connection. Right now the adverage person has around a 1.5Mbps connection.
So try your numbers with that number. And you will come out at 1day 5hours for a single movie at your 20GB number. And I suspect with lossless audio it will be higher than that.

Name the one flaw I see in your caculations it the fact with a 5Mbps connection. Right now the adverage person has around a 1.5Mbps connection.
So try your numbers with that number. And you will come out at 1day 5hours for a single movie at your 20GB number. And I suspect with lossless audio it will be higher than that.

You're missing the point. The OP isn't talking about today, but a good 10 years from now or maybe even more... We all know 1.5meg is not enough bandwidth to get anything done beyond surfing the net and small downloads.

No doubt storage reliability is a concern. This ia a major reason I think we will see three "waves" over the next decade. First pay per item. No or minimal storage needed. Next subscription services. If you have hardware failure you "lose" your queue or movies for the month but nothing you own. Lastly after years of experience, dropping hardware prices we may see a STB with 2 drives in RAID 1. Lose a drive it notifies you and you replace the bad drive with no content loss.

I am 100% positive the digital owned content will be the most difficult and slowest service to get off the ground. It has the largest challenges in terms of bandwidth, storage, reliability, and content recovery.

Holographic discs currently can store up to 1TB (at very high cost). Maybe the end game isn't HDD after all. Maybe 10-20 years from now your STB records purchased content to 5TB holographic discs.

I don't think any of this is going to replace HD media tomorrow. I just think it will happen someday and based on the amount of investment a lot of other companies (Sony, Microsoft, cable companies, Verizon, Vudu, XstreamHD, netflix, tivo, amazon) think so also.

Hmmm...If it's going to be done, I just can't see hard drives being the storage medium. Can you imagine the average consumer replacing a hard drive and on top of that doing it quickly enough so the other doesn't fail? Heck, my company lost 500gb of data on a SNAP appliance with 3 drives and raid-5 because they didn't replace the faulty drive quick enough.

It will have to be an advanced optical disc such as holographic or something else. If not optical, then solid state which I do think holds some water. Just depends how quickly the larger storage comes along and cost.

Either way, I'm excited to see what is next and I agree BD will be here to stay for a solid 10+ years with DD slowly creeping into the scene.

LOL!! Always a jokester lurking.

http://www.canmag.com/images/front/tv/extras.jpg

i agree with you.... i think too many are expecting digital distribution to replace dvd/bluray and not reinvent the way we consume movies.

i for one cant wait until i can get a service like xbox live but pay a monthly fee (like my netflix)

None of these services likely will include extras. Does HBO air extras? Does HD On Demand show extras?

Looking at most BD movies the actual video is around 20GB. Why would a streaming service need to send 12 languages? How about in the STB setup you select the language you want and it only downloads that track? Or for the purists maybe an option like original language + subtitles for foreign films?

I could care less about extras, but why do the studios insist on spending all that time and money putting them on every single disc that comes out? If the outright video is only 20gb, then that is much more manageable but still quite large nonetheless. All I personally care about is the best PQ and AQ possible.

2 things need to happen.

1. 20+ terabyte terminals for less than $400. Though according to HD-DVD supporters.. it probably needs to be $100 to reach the mass market.
2. Ability to dl 30gb worth of content almost as simply as downloading your favourite mp3(shorter than 30 minutes)

MS said it'll be 6+ years until DD truly takes off, seems reasonable though I think it'll be a bit longer depending on how much retailers defend packaged media.

but its already having an effect on the market now... the difference is it will grow and in 6-10 yrs be ready to take a major part of the market. but there are already lots of people using the digital distribution services now (probably pretty close to the number using hd movies... its also going to be 3+ yrs before bluray takes any significant portion of the market)

Check out this quote from the Comcast CEO, Brian Roberts at CES.

"Comcast in 2008 will offer Internet speeds as fast as 160 megabits per second, up from its current top of 16 mbps. "We're going to download a two hour-plus movie in high-definition in three minutes and 56 seconds," he says. The price will depend on demand."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20080108/tc_usatoday/comcasttorampupinternetspeedtvtechoptions

I'm amazed this kind of bandwidth is available. I wonder what it will cost the consumer???

I posted this on a different thread, but it applies here...

I foresee ond forma digital downloads as being a subscription service to an HD media center. Rather than being housed on a home PC it would be on the Internet. For a monthly fee of say $50, you can browse movies, look up reviews, list actors, view cover art, and then select the movie you want to see. Your choice would be from thousands rather than the small amount you have purchased. You would no longer have to worry about misplacing discs, damaging them, or even having to get up and search through what you have trying to remember if you still have that one.

Companies love subscription services because they lock in users. It guarantees them revenue and is far better than having to rely on the fickle public going to the store and purchasing HDM

Digital Downloads, to take off, will need about 35megabit that's uninterupted to everyone.

So I'll buy a movie from the service, and be able to instantly stream it anytime. That's still not ideal though, since it's a pain to fast forward and jump around. Extras and bandwidth will still be squeezed as much as possible due to cost.

I just don't think local storage on HD's will work well. DRM and capacity will hinder it for a long time. Streaming isn't as good as a disc, and won't be any cheaper.

Long live Blu-ray distribution. Digital downloads are expensive, and gets far more expensive the more people use it.

Someday it WILL be the norm, but not until long after Blu-ray owns the market.

What about this?

Comcast to launch 4-min HD movie downloads

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comcast to launch 4-min HD movie downloads

By Yinka Adegoke

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Superfast Internet speeds on Comcast Corp this year will allow subscribers to download a whole high-definition movie in just four minutes, as the largest U.S. cable operator hastens to fight off competition from phone and satellite companies.

Comcast will also offer up to 1,000 HD movies and programs for downloads in another new service slated for 2008, in hopes of winning back customers and boosting its stock which has slumped more than 40 percent in the past year.

The Wideband superfast Internet service will mark a "quantum leap" ahead of its competitors, Comcast Chief Executive Brian Roberts told Reuters in an interview before the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Conventional DSL requires six hours to download an HD movie.

"Wideband takes four channels and bonds them together and will enable speeds to go up from 12-16 megabits a second to over 100 megabits a second," said Roberts.

Roberts said Wideband would be available to millions of homes in 2008, but he would not be more specific on a timeframe or a retail price range for the new service.

"If it's as successful as we plan we'll roll it out to tens of millions of home shortly thereafter," he added.

Super-fast download speeds could render the debate on high-definition disc formats moot, even as Hollywood studios are fighting over whether to back the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD disc systems. Continued...

Several things has to happen before HD downloads can become a viable business. Some tech info here (http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/news/2007/08/akamai_brings_h.php).

And after a year Wal*Mart has stopped their download service. For me, downloading HD is another solution looking for a problem.

Digital Downloads, to take off, will need about 35megabit that's uninterupted to everyone.

So I'll buy a movie from the service, and be able to instantly stream it anytime. That's still not ideal though, since it's a pain to fast forward and jump around. Extras and bandwidth will still be squeezed as much as possible due to cost.

I just don't think local storage on HD's will work well. DRM and capacity will hinder it for a long time. Streaming isn't as good as a disc, and won't be any cheaper.

Long live Blu-ray distribution. Digital downloads are expensive, and gets far more expensive the more people use it.

Someday it WILL be the norm, but not until long after Blu-ray owns the market.

I couldn't agree more. It's going to be a very long time.

Here's something to think about... Storage and capacity are a huge hinderence on DD. If the bandwidth is there to download a full 2+ hour movie without sacrificing quality in 5min or less, then why couldn't you download the movie to a 100gig drive, watch it and then delete it in 24 hours. If you want to watch another movie right away, then delete what you have and download the next one. Your set top box will hold one movie at a time without loss of quality with streaming and will give you the ability to fast forward, rewind, skip, etc... You could essentially keep YOUR library on the service network and download when you're ready to watch. No storage on your end is necessary except for the movie you want to watch.

The most obvious pitfall to this solution would be quality of service in the connection. You can have a 1gig connection but if the quality is poor or the pipe is constantly pegged due to traffic it would be a horrible experience.

You can get 500gig drive for $100...... space will not be a problem.

I couldn't agree more. It's going to be a very long time.

Here's something to think about... Storage and capacity are a huge hinderence on DD. If the bandwidth is there to download a full 2+ hour movie without sacrificing quality in 5min or less, then why couldn't you download the movie to a 100gig drive, watch it and then delete it in 24 hours. If you want to watch another movie right away, then delete what you have and download the next one. Your set top box will hold one movie at a time without loss of quality with streaming and will give you the ability to fast forward, rewind, skip, etc... You could essentially keep YOUR library on the service network and download when you're ready to watch. No storage on your end is necessary except for the movie you want to watch.

The most obvious pitfall to this solution would be quality of service in the connection. You can have a 1gig connection but if the quality is poor or the pipe is constantly pegged due to traffic it would be a horrible experience.

Again, this stuff is pretty moot.. VOD itself hasn't displaced very much of the DVD/Blu-ray market.

I use Tivocast on a few things myself, and will continue to. I use netflix instant watch also. It's great for old 80's movies on a PC monitor when at a slow job at work.

This stuff now is several generations behind Blu-ray for video. And OnDemand has been around for some time, it's not very new. Will it supliment BD? Of course. Will it overtake it? Doubtful for a long, long time.

I'd be more interested in a STB that integrated NetFlix. What if instead of waiting for the next flick to come in the mail it just downloaded the next three movies in your queue to the STB? Who cares if it took a day to download? It's cheaper that the mail and for $17 a month you always have three movies downloaded and ready to go. I'd pay for that.

What about this?I pay Comcast for a 6 Meg service. The best that have seen it do for download is about 100KB (1/60th of the rated speed)

IMO it's not about digital downloads its about HDM digital downloads and the added bandwidth HD needs. You can get a ton of on demand SD downloads today. And yes it won't take a pc, netflix has a press release of a set-top box they are preparing for launch to handle it, I have not heard if it will handle HDM. Actually Netflix's current SD Digital Download works blazingly fast. For the price of a regular subscription plan which you still get those perks (3 out plan for example) we also get as a bonus unlimited SD downloads for no additional cost. They have about 5000 offerings and the content starts playing in less then 30 seconds on my slow DSL speeds.

You can get 500gig drive for $100...... space will not be a problem.

Not true. I know disk is cheap but it doesn't matter. You cannot store your own library of movies on 500gb or even 1TB. In addition to that, what happens if your hard drive fails? Then what? You lose your entire library of movies because hard drives fail ALL the time as it's inevitable with them.

There cannot be a limit of how many movies you keep in your own personal library and it cannot be at risk of being lost due to hardware failure.

You can get 500gig drive for $100...... space will not be a problem.

10 movies worth, not including the delivery.

In 5 years, you might be able to get 1.5terabytes for $100.

Ok.. That's 30 movies. It's getting there. But I suspect at least another 10 years before capacity and data rates get there. Plus, you realize how few people even consider hooking up an ethernet jack to their home theater is now?

It will happen, but not before Blu-ray has had a long successful home theater run.

Face it, that's what's best for us all at this point.

the major advantage of physical media is once you purchased it you can play it in
any player you have home,mobile,office and auto i don't see this happening with
digital downloads unless copy protection will no longer exist and i really don't see
that happening. hard drives cannot currently be reallocated to other players they
reformat.

I wanna know.. where were the VOD maniacs before the 4th?

I guess on the hddvd areas that I never read.

I pay Comcast for a 6 Meg service. The best that have seen it do for download is about 100KB (1/60th of the rated speed)

This is what scares me the most. They promise the world and give you this enormous pipe but as soon as everyone in your area signs up it's over. The pipe is pegged during prime hours and becomes useless outside of surfing the net.

I have 10meg or whatever with Comcast and it's always quite fast but I'm sure not everyone in my area is on the same plan.

This is what scares me the most. They promise the world and give you this enormous pipe but as soon as everyone in your area signs up it's over. The pipe is pegged during prime hours and becomes useless outside of surfing the net.

I have 10meg or whatever with Comcast and it's always quite fast but I'm sure not everyone in my area is on the same plan.

Don't forget Verizon's 'unlimited' cellular broadband too.. As long as it was under 5gig a month that is.

i realize that they can send an hd pay per view movie to your set top box now
but its highly compressed and the audio is not stellar by any means so they are
saying that you can send 1080p with lossless audio to my set top box no matter
how many people in my area are on line at the same time without lose of quality.

i realize that they can send an hd pay per view movie to your set top box now
but its highly compressed and the audio is not stellar by any means so they are
saying that you can send 1080p with lossless audio to my set top box no matter
how many people in my area are on line at the same time without lose of quality.

It's really not highly compressed around here. It is better than DirecTV legacy MPEG-2 HD. There is no lossless audio, but it's better than some people here realize.

I wanna know.. where were the VOD maniacs before the 4th?

I guess on the hddvd areas that I never read.

Fair enough question, but I've been a Comcast HD On Demand fan for over a year now. This CES has brought a clear message that everyone wants a piece of the streamed/downloaded digital media pie. A revolution is arriving, and the most exciting news IMO is not in 5" optical discs.

Wow. I think the BDA has some of you really trained that all movies must use 50GB or they are crap. :D

I have a 10Mbps cable connection. I can watch almost all HD movies on XBL within about 5 minutes. A few have required a 30 minute buffer. The encodes are top notch, albeit 720p.

A 2 hour 1080p encode that is comparible, if not identical, to an HD DVD encode with high bit rate (1.5 Mbps) DD+ would come in just under 12GB for a typical movie. It owuld be just under 9GB for a 1.5 hour movie.

All of the technology is there, it's just waiting for some one to put it all together (and a few places are getting close). Well, and for a few service providers to get their heads out of their...

Like I said, The market for HD will be split and BD or nor HD DVD will dominate it. You will have a pie split up between several methods to get hd. Another thing, advanced audio codecs is an enthusiast thing not a general public thing.

Again, this stuff is pretty moot.. VOD itself hasn't displaced very much of the DVD/Blu-ray market.

This stuff now is several generations behind Blu-ray for video. And OnDemand has been around for some time, it's not very new. Will it supliment BD? Of course. Will it overtake it? Doubtful for a long, long time.

You're right, it hasn't displaced it yet, but it will. And unless HD optical really gains some steam in the next couple years, it will forever be a niche, if the content providers continue to even support it.

Cable is already testing DOCSIS 3.0, which has more than enough bandwidth and Verizon alone projects 18 million plus housholds to have FiOS in 3 years. That's 18 million subscribers just for Verizon that are fully capable of purchasing HD content over their residential lines. That's, well, about 15 million more subscribers than current owners of a HD optical player. AT&T's fiber plan isn't nearly as ambitious, nor as robust as Verizon's, but even running fiber to the node for their customers will provide sufficient bandwidth. I can see some sort of hybrid Bit Torrent type schema being used for HD VOD as well. Instead of all the bandwidth coming from the provider's central lines, I could see them possibly aggregating based upon a snapshot of the existing distributed content.

Sure, I think some HD DVD owners are venting because of the current grim picture for HD DVD, but the discussions of VOD is certainly a valid one. Some of the fanboys from both sides need to relax, HD optical isn't going away tomorrow, enjoy it, I sure am, but I'm also realistic.

Only time will tell, but you can rest assured, the big communications providers of cable, sat and telco are not investing millions and millions into technology they're not at least going to try and push as best they can. Whether or not the marketplace embraces it is to be seen.

For you VOD nay-sayers, just look at today's headlines on AVS -

Comcast to Offer 1,000 HD Choices
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=972981

HD VOD may have some compression artifacts and may only be DD5.1, which for some is unacceptable, and obviously not as good as quality as HD optical, but again, it will sell. It's easy and convenient, all they have to do is push a button, and to the vast majority of the population, it will look and sound great. To top it off, they don't have to worry about trying to figure out what Blu-ray and HD DVD are or go buy an expensive player and discs.

Make no mistake, HD VOD is HD optical's single largest threat.

If Toshiba was smart, they would do some joint venture with Microsoft and make all of the HD DVD players in the wild VOD boxes. They all have ethernet ports. (especially with all of the components of the G1 and G2 players) I think there is enough demand that BD and VOD could coexist.

For downloads to take over, people are going to have to only care about the content. However, if that's the case, why do they bother producing gift sets, steelbooks, and tins? The briefcase edition of Blade Runner sold very well.

I couldn't agree more. It's going to be a very long time.

Here's something to think about... Storage and capacity are a huge hinderence on DD. If the bandwidth is there to download a full 2+ hour movie without sacrificing quality in 5min or less, then why couldn't you download the movie to a 100gig drive, watch it and then delete it in 24 hours. If you want to watch another movie right away, then delete what you have and download the next one. Your set top box will hold one movie at a time without loss of quality with streaming and will give you the ability to fast forward, rewind, skip, etc... You could essentially keep YOUR library on the service network and download when you're ready to watch. No storage on your end is necessary except for the movie you want to watch.

The most obvious pitfall to this solution would be quality of service in the connection. You can have a 1gig connection but if the quality is poor or the pipe is constantly pegged due to traffic it would be a horrible experience.

We don't need to download a 2+ hours movie in 5 minutes.

Downloading a movie in 2+ hours would suffice.

Everybody is doing that for decades already.

They only have to sort out the demand bit.

Why not add a blu-ray burner to this set top box. If you really like a movie, you could make a hard copy, for an extra charge, of course.

For you VOD nay-sayers, just look at today's headlines on AVS -


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=972981

HD VOD may have some compression artifacts and may only be DD5.1, which for some is unacceptable, and obviously not as good as quality as HD optical, but again, it will sell. It's easy and convenient, all they have to do is push a button, and to the vast majority of the population, it will look and sound great. To top it off, they don't have to worry about trying to figure out what Blu-ray and HD DVD are or go buy an expensive player and discs.

Make no mistake, HD VOD is HD optical's single largest threat.VOD is Blockbuster's biggest threat.
And like you said, 1080p lossless audio aint exactly a useless feature.

I know people who do nothing but record movies from VOD and then they just keep it on their terminal for however long.. but, they were never movie collecters in the first place(less than a dozen DVD's owned) so it never really affected the market for physical media anyways.