If some studios only release on HDM, the argument about DVD being hard to compete against becomes less and less true. Especially now that there is a more defined HD path with BD, consumers will dictate the market when they start buying players. Sure DVD is entrenched, but so was VHS.


Does anyone really think consumers won't start ponying up and buying HD players for 300.00 when dozens of major titles are released only on HDM?

This is what will happen. The trend will turn. Most DVD's are already mastered in HD. The transition will be easy.

Will it take a couple of years? Yes, but by 2010 most of us will see some major changes especially at the rental stores.

First the companies will dictate the market, but then consumers will ultimately dictate just like they did with FP tv's.

I believe what you suggest, is called financial sucicide

i doubt they would be willing to lose that money but they could bring an incentive
to the table by releasing hd movies several weeks ahead of the sd movies.

releasing only HD DVD combos makes the transition easy.

releasing only HD DVD combos makes the transition easy.

It would be even easier on a twin disk. If Paramount and Universal started only releasing in a combo/twin format, I foresee a future of combo BR/HDDVD players. Now that there are single chip/laser solutions, it would be a logical path.

Basically any studio that tried that would be bankrupt in no time. DVD is a hell of a lot more entrenched than VHS ever was. Thanks to players in almost every room in the house the minivan and other portable units. When DVD took over people still mainly watched movies in the living room. There was no 5 players to replace like there would be now. When DVD players got to 30 dollars and portable units got sub 100 dollars the rules of the game changed. Also DVD was a revolution like every other format change there has been. DVD was not about PQ/SQ to the public it was about no rewind, smaller formfactor and durability PQ/SQ was just a bonus. Blu/hd-dvd is just an evolution.

One thing that made me really want to get into Laserdisc and DVD was the staggered releases they did with those formats and VHS. I'm sure you all remember when, many times, movies would be available for rental only on VHS, but for purchase on DVD and LD. That was a big factor for a lot of people.

In another thread about DVD being hard to overcome, Dark Knight said the following which relates to what I am trying to say which is that this HDM is the inevitable evolution from DVD. Even at CES Sony unveiled a 200.00 BD Rom drive.



"Nah, I think your wrong about this one.

Better PQ is coming for everyone whether they like it or not. That's just going to be the natural progression of this technology.

Soon, HD media and hardware will be nearly as affordable as DVD. When that happens, HD functionality will be included in all new players. Some people will upgrade their old players/collections perhaps without even noticing. They will buy a new "DVD" player and perhaps not be aware that the new unit also plays Blu-Rays".

If HDM is going to become the norm, it has to be just about the only choice. Similar to how, when you go to buy a TV, it's almost certain you will be buying a HDTV and even if you never use the HD part, its still there. DVD players will have to eventually be replaced by only HDM-capable players and I think a good approach to software would be offering both HD and SD media in one package at affordable prices (not combos). When the market determines it is time, the SD disc can then be dropped or offered seperately. Any way you look at it, there is going to be a long and slow process for all this to happen.

You guys are also forgetting that when DVD came out, you didn't have HD cable and HD Satellite, VOD, HD TiVo and DVR, and downloading.

So, how easy do you think it is really going to be to convince people they HAVE to spend that much money on players and expensive movies when they have many more places to get that same content than they ever had.

This is a baaaaaad idea.

seems like dropping dvd for bd would also cause a huge increase in piracy.

it would be really easy to download an sd version of a movie and make your own copy.

blank dvd are really cheap.

studios need to keep offering the dvd version or risk selling nothing.

imo consumers need to want the technology because it is better. studios cannot force them to bd by cutting off dvd completely.

They wouldn't try to do that until the amount of HDTVs in American homes was like 70%+

Wait till early 2009, DVDs will be phased out by then maybe, or at least the process will have started.

....Does anyone really think consumers won't start ponying up and buying HD players for 300.00 when dozens of major titles are released only on HDM?....



Consumers will not pony up the $300 to buy the players. Isn't the number of homes with HDTVs somewhere around 35%? Quite a few of those people are happy watching Lost, CSI, and sporting events in HD and think that the picture is just fine watching DVDs.
You restrict them to HDM only and they simply won't buy it. The studios won't even entertain the idea since HDM is something like 1% of the total DVD revenues.

You guys are also forgetting that when DVD came out, you didn't have HD cable and HD Satellite, VOD, HD TiVo and DVR, and downloading.

So, how easy do you think it is really going to be to convince people they HAVE to spend that much money on players and expensive movies when they have many more places to get that same content than they ever had.

This is a baaaaaad idea.

True, but none of the other formats have all the options and special features that people have been fighting over in these forums for ages. I like oztech's idea

I doubt they would be willing to lose that money but they could bring an incentive to the table by releasing hd movies several weeks ahead of the sd movies.
Including downloadables.

Cool idea (if you were in Brewster's Millions). Almost as efficient as making large cash withdrawals and lighting the money on fire. Wouldn't take as long though.

ALL HDM sold in 2007 was ~300M. SD sales were ~24B (as in 80X more). I am sure the avg sale price for new releases was pretty close to that of SD. So they would be cannibalizing their profitable SD sales to lower their profity margin all while alienating 98.75% of their customer base.

Too much time spent here on AVS can seriously warp one's perceptions.

Let me get this straight. There are about 5 blu-ray releases that have sold over 100,000 copies. A good SD DVD can sell 5-8 million in one week.

So you think that if studios skip selling those millions of discs in favor of a tens of thousands, that would be good?

What about the 99% of peolpe without blu-ray players? How many are willing to run out and replace ther 4 or 5 DVD players with blu-ray players that cost $400+ a pop?

I think your idea would be great for VOD, and filesharing ripped DVDs on bit-torrent.

In another thread about DVD being hard to overcome, Dark Knight said the following which relates to what I am trying to say which is that this HDM is the inevitable evolution from DVD. Even at CES Sony unveiled a 200.00 BD Rom drive.



"Nah, I think your wrong about this one.

Better PQ is coming for everyone whether they like it or not. That's just going to be the natural progression of this technology.

Soon, HD media and hardware will be nearly as affordable as DVD. When that happens, HD functionality will be included in all new players. Some people will upgrade their old players/collections perhaps without even noticing. They will buy a new "DVD" player and perhaps not be aware that the new unit also plays Blu-Rays".

When that new disc does not work in the car or bedroom you can bet your ass they will notice and not buy another disc until every player is upgraded in the house/car. DVD only had to overcome the VCR in the living room. Blu has to over come players on every tv in the house and units in the car and other portable units.

This has to happen for BD to thrive.

Maybe not every movie. Just the hits.

J6P will relate it to when they stopped making VHS.

"Time to get a new player, that Funai has a good price"

It doesn't really matter. If the war really is over then BD will have no price competition and prices will not fall much further than they are now for either players or movies. Which means HDM on $30 discs will never be more than a niche product, like laserdisc. Sony thought they would recoup all those lost CD royalties with SACD - they were wrong. And now they think they will see a bountiful flow of BD royalties - they are wrong again!

This has to happen for BD to thrive.

Maybe not every movie. Just the hits.

J6P will relate it to when they stopped making VHS.

"Time to get a new player, that Funai has a good price"

J6P wanted DVD it was not forced on him. He loved the no rewind, smaller form factor and durability. You really think J6P will purchase a 20-30 dollar move that will only work on 1 player in the house? That is the issue with blu the lack of twin discs will make it a more successfull LD.

I really think people around here just don't see it from the average family. The family that has many DVD players in the house and portable units which are impossible to replace right now.

I think it will be somewhat of an niche product but not to the extent of LD. More people have HDTV's now, but not necessarily in every room. I think people will buy BDs knowing it will be for the family room and not for the minivan. That is why SD DVDS will always be around.