I'm not quite sure most folks percieve as much of a difference between HD/Blu and SD-DVD as they did between DVD and VHS.
To many its still just a movie on disc.
I'm still amazed and saddened by the people who still want/buy their DVD's in Full Frame:eek::confused:
I think DVD won because it didn't have a rewind fee like VHS did. :D

The problem with full frame people is that they will want a full frame (now 16:9) version to fill the new TV without distortion, so studios will change for current widescreen DVD to OAR HDM and full screen DVD to 1.78 HDM version. :eek:

I think DVD won because it didn't have a rewind fee like VHS did. :D

The problem with full frame people is that they will want a full frame (now 16:9) version to fill the new TV without distortion, so studios will change for current widescreen DVD to OAR HDM and full screen DVD to 1.78 HDM version. :eek:

You seem to have a good understanding of the situation. If HDM remains niche, the studios will be more likely to do OAR and keep the AQ, PQ and packaging up. Nothing screws up this things more than bringing everyone in.

I'm not quite sure most folks percieve as much of a difference between HD/Blu and SD-DVD as they did between DVD and VHS.

We have a winner!
The transition to optical disk provided a media that did not jam in the machine, could be easily cleaned, was much smaller in size, was less sensitive to environmental issues, did not need to be rewound, allowed you to easily advance to any point including extras, could be played over and over without problems. Oh and yes it also produced better audio and video.

Plus they still had fresh in their minds the car audio format transition they had just gone through a few years earlier in changing from cassette to CD, therefore these benefits were easily understood; I would say intuitively obvious.

Consider that Hollywood and the supporting industry may not feel they have to ween users completely from SD DVD. The goal is profitability and that could be achieved at modest percentage of the entire DVD market.

They will simply maintain a dual market of DVD and Blu-ray with the latter taking a greater share of profits from the higher end of the market than they were before while DVD continues to satisfy the masses.

The early target market rather than being the masses is probably represented fairly well right here. Are you not after all spending more on movie media than you were before HDM? Add in a healthy slice of the higher end hdtv buying mainstream and it should be a recipe for better profit margins overall.

For the industry this approach should work. The only risk is if too many people find other ways to consume high def rather than optiical media. I'm sure they'll go to meet the market wherever it is as we see now with support for downloads increasing.

The only likely consumer downside is the HDM market may continue to have a far smaller selection of content than DVD for the foreseeable future. The big releases should all be covered however along with a moderate selection of small content and a steady flow of catalog double dips.

A happy compromise with DVD?

Consider that Hollywood and the supporting industry may not feel they have to ween users completely from SD DVD. The goal is profitability and that could be achieved at modest percentage of the entire DVD market.

They will simply maintain a dual market of DVD and Blu-ray with the latter taking a greater share of profits from the higher end of the market than they were before while DVD continues to satisfy the masses.

The early target market rather than being the masses is probably represented fairly well right here. Are you not after all spending more on movie media than you were before HDM? Add in a healthy slice of the higher end hdtv buying mainstream and it should be a recipe for better profit margins overall.

For the industry this approach should work. The only risk is if too many people find other ways to consume high def rather than optiical media. I'm sure they'll go to meet the market wherever it is as we see now with support for downloads increasing.

The only likely consumer downside is the HDM market may continue to have a far smaller selection of content than DVD for the foreseeable future. The big releases should all be covered however along with a moderate selection of small content and a steady flow of catalog double dips.

A happy compromise with DVD?

But again HD DVD was more likely to settle into such a happy compromise, being as HD DVD discs can be made which are also compatible with DVD players.

For certain films - especially "family" films - most households will be in a quandry which format to buy; Blu-ray or DVD. Because most households won't have Blu-ray players scattered around the house for years to come.

Add in the fact that (admittedly currently) most Blu-ray players are PS3s (and lets face it, it looks like staying that way for at least another 18 months or so - especially overseas where dedicated Blu-ray players are rare to spot in the wild) and you end up with a format not family friendly. Families fight over the big screen. Families fight over do we watch a movie or play on the PS3.

HD DVD seems to have everything right (on paper - the combos did need a little more work). I can only think CE Manufacturers would rather support Blu-ray because they saw it as an ideal opportunity to get households to upgrade their current multuiple DVD equipment rather than just once. It remains to be seen if this "greed" will result in anything close to mass adoption or not.

I wonder what percentage of Chinese have HDTVs?Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

HDTV subscriber revenue in China will reach $358 million by 2011.

HDTV set shipments will reach 19.7 million by 2011.

Next-generation optical disc players with HDTV-quality pictures will ship 4.4 million units in 2011.

http://www.instat.com/press.asp?Sku=IN0703517CCM&ID=2077

With that not as a possibility on bluray discs, how will the companies ween consumers over to HD? With 700 dollar profile 2.0 players of course

You seem to have a good understanding of the situation. If HDM remains niche, the studios will be more likely to do OAR and keep the AQ, PQ and packaging up. Nothing screws up this things more than bringing everyone in.Good points, they would make a good article. PS3 bringing more people in ruins the format for audio and videophiles. Interesting

Kind of takes the wind out of the sails of those people that keep spreading FUD about $100,000 players being the norm till the end of time.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=841

But again HD DVD was more likely to settle into such a happy compromise, being as HD DVD discs can be made which are also compatible with DVD players.



I agree from a consumer perspective which is the primary reason that as a dual format owner from day one, I favored hd dvd despite the bitrate advantage of blu-ray. The prospect of a faster and deeper mass acceptance should have led to more content choices.

That happy compromise though is only from the consumer perspective. From the business perspective evidently the compromise was not viewed as happy as the blu-ray compromise. For consumers it's more content and flexibility of use that makes it happy but for business the question is where do we make the most money. The blu-ray compromise evidently has been deemed happier.

That is not to say there is no consumer benefits for the blu-ray side,
-higher bitrate,
-higher max capacity and
-hardcoating weigh against
-the hybrid disk flexibility,
-lower underlying cost (though it was not ever passed to consumer), and
-for the early cycle the more complete spec and interactivity features.

For certain films - especially "family" films - most households will be in a quandry which format to buy; Blu-ray or DVD. Because most households won't have Blu-ray players scattered around the house for years to come.

A problem for consumers but perhaps not so much for business where the answer is simply "buy more blu-ray players". $

Add in the fact that (admittedly currently) most Blu-ray players are PS3s (and lets face it, it looks like staying that way for at least another 18 months or so - especially overseas where dedicated Blu-ray players are rare to spot in the wild) and you end up with a format not family friendly. Families fight over the big screen. Families fight over do we watch a movie or play on the PS3.

It appears the PS3 won the war for BD. The idea is that soon the standalones should take center stage and change the demographic mix.

It remains to be seen if this "greed" will result in anything close to mass adoption or not.

That does remain to be seen, but I suspect the HDM industry will settle for profitable adoption and a dual market DVD/?Blu-ray market if that's the best they can do.

Consumers were used for experimentation but the choice of formats is made by industry as it was always going to be.

after reading this whole thread and going to sleep last night, i had an epiphany and see a possibility in the following scenario:

--HD-DVD lost world war 1
--Bluray will make a 20-30% penetration in the next 3 years.
--Toshiba will concede but continue to produce upconverting players with HD built in along side their BD players with HD as well. Not including laptops, etc.They will also lower licensing fees to nothing for CEs to throw in to their players just for another sticker to put on it. (like DVD-A and SACD)
--Studios, upset with the eroding DVD prices and low BD sales try to figure out what to do since they are pressing DVDs and BDs but not selling more.
--Toshiba says "hey, why not start making special editions of DVDs that include the HD version as a bonus (by this time twin disk will have been "perfected"), than you can release a DVD at the same pressing cost, but charge $5 more for an instant 25% revenue increase." ($25 not $35 MSRP)
--The studions love it, and soon, new blockbusters like 300 and bourne are only released in a DVD SE with HD-DVD along side the BD.
--consumers love it because they can watch the special HD version at home and then move it to their car or laptop or wherever.
--HD-DVD now 6 years later, has 20-30 mil players and the dvd compatible feature nets them 60% of DVD sales, or 42% market share, not including the independent studios and filmmakers that press in HD because of cost.
--BD slowly loses marketshare back down to 15%
--some hacker finds a way to software rip an HD-DVD to HDD and play it from ISO on the PS3, making it a DF player.
--BD dies, Toshiba wins WW2

My $.02
there is no weening/weaning the consumer off of DVD. not if toshiba can sit back, keep their IP and play later.

the way this doesn't work - BD gets twin disk with DVD included.
if that happens, they will rule the world.

Dave

Kind of takes the wind out of the sails of those people that keep spreading FUD about $100,000 players being the norm till the end of time.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=841

Great! They have been announcing that hing ofr 6 months, but it is "still in the prototype stage and the company is in planning and research mode".

Nice find! But I doubt we will see it for a very long time...if ever.
Its the Duke Nukem Forever of Blu-ray players.

The chinese players for their local markets chose AVS as their codec to avoid paying for any MPEG2 or AVC or VC-1 royalties. The chipset they use will not have MPEG2 or AVC or VC-1 decoding.

As to why they think AVS can avoid the fundamental patents that are ingrained deep in the existing codecs since mpeg1 when they're so similar, that's something for the legal and political entities to work out.

I have never got a straight answer from the insiders on this, but I have read several articles that say a CH DVD player can quickly be converted to an HD DVD player with special FW. I am not saying that is true, but its what I have read.

The worst case is that in the factory some players get chip A and others get chip B. The rest of the players are identical.

@Dahlsim, fixed your post:
...
That is not to say there is no consumer benefits for the blu-ray side,
-higher bitrate (though it makes no perceivable difference),
-higher max capacity (though it makes no perceivable difference) and
-hardcoating (though it scratches rather easily) weigh against
-the hybrid disk flexibility,
-robust design -scratches don't render the media useless,
-lower underlying cost (though it was not ever passed to consumer),
-no region code, and
-for the early cycle the more complete spec and interactivity features.


;)

Consider that Hollywood and the supporting industry may not feel they have to ween users completely from SD DVD. The goal is profitability and that could be achieved at modest percentage of the entire DVD market.

They will simply maintain a dual market of DVD and Blu-ray with the latter taking a greater share of profits from the higher end of the market than they were before while DVD continues to satisfy the masses.

The early target market rather than being the masses is probably represented fairly well right here. Are you not after all spending more on movie media than you were before HDM? Add in a healthy slice of the higher end hdtv buying mainstream and it should be a recipe for better profit margins overall.

For the industry this approach should work. The only risk is if too many people find other ways to consume high def rather than optiical media. I'm sure they'll go to meet the market wherever it is as we see now with support for downloads increasing.

The only likely consumer downside is the HDM market may continue to have a far smaller selection of content than DVD for the foreseeable future. The big releases should all be covered however along with a moderate selection of small content and a steady flow of catalog double dips.

A happy compromise with DVD?
+1 to a happy compromise with DVD
I never believed that HDM would entirely replace DVD or ever be as big as DVD has with all the other options for personal entertainment that covers more that just movies.

I will not buy any current movie release on DVD since I’m reserving my new movie dollars for HDM, but I have no problem renting it on DVD. I will buy older “TV on DVD” stuff that will not likely ever be available on HDM since I had rather buy it and not have to endure advertising (even with DVR and fast-forwarding it’s a pain).

They will also lower licensing fees to nothing for CEs to throw in to their players just for another sticker to put on it.

Those fat licensing fees are the ONLY reason Toshiba cares about any of this at all.

-the hybrid disk flexibility,

Hybrid disks are a bad welfare scheme where every one has to pay more for disks to satisfy a few. And yes I know what is coming next. "Well eventually hybrid disks would be cheaper to make than DVDs so we don't need Blu-ray."

@Dahlsim, fixed your post:
...
That is not to say there is no consumer benefits for the blu-ray side,
-higher bitrate (though it makes no perceivable difference),
-higher max capacity (though it makes no perceivable difference) and
-hardcoating (though it scratches rather easily) weigh against
-the hybrid disk flexibility,
-robust design -scratches don't render the media useless,
-lower underlying cost (though it was not ever passed to consumer),
-no region code, and
-for the early cycle the more complete spec and interactivity features.

;)

V.3:D

That is not to say there is no consumer benefits for the blu-ray side,
-higher bitrate (nobody noticed)
-higher max capacity (no burners = no care)
-hardcoating (either had it or the disc was useless)
-the hybrid disk flexibility (underutilized)
-lower underlying cost (passed to the consumer via lower hardware costs), and
-for the early cycle the more complete spec and interactivity features (which nobody paid attention to on either side)

@Dahlsim, fixed your post:

That is not to say there is no consumer benefits for the blu-ray side,
-higher bitrate,
-higher max capacity and
-hardcoating weigh against
-the hybrid disk flexibility,
-lower underlying cost (though it was not ever passed to consumer), and
-no region code, and
-for the early cycle the more complete spec and interactivity features.

For certain films - especially "family" films - most households will be in a quandry which format to buy; Blu-ray or DVD. Because most households won't have Blu-ray players scattered around the house for years to come.

A problem for consumers but perhaps not so much for business where the answer is simply "buy more blu-ray players". $

;)

Agreed. Lack of Region coding belongs in that list.

i have to ask this question has the world become so addicted to movies that we have
to be able to play these in our automobiles,garages,portable devices,kitchens,bedrooms
and our computers. don't get me wrong i love movies but its good to get out enjoy a
ride read a book use the computer for learning go to the park something different .

i have to ask this question has the world become so addicted to movies that we have
to be able to play these in our automobiles,garages,portable devices,kitchens,bedrooms
and our computers. don't get me wrong i love movies but its good to get out enjoy a
ride read a book use the computer for learning go to the park something different .

Dude, you live in Houston. I refuse to believe you have not been behind at least one minivan or SUV with a drop down screen playing a Disney animated flick (or behind some dweeb poser in a blinged out E-lade playing a porno). People use that as a baby sitting tool. This way they don't have to listen to, "Are we there yet?"

Dude, you live in Houston. I refuse to believe you have not been behind at least one minivan or SUV with a drop down screen playing a Disney animated flick (or behind some dweeb poser in a blinged out E-lade playing a porno). People use that as a baby sitting tool. This way they don't have to listen to, "Are we there yet?"

i did not say i am not aware of it just explains a lot of childrens behavior
may be time for a change while they are still teachable .

i did not say i am not aware of it just explains a lot of childrens behavior
may be time for a change while they are still teachable .

Children's behavior is down to parenting ....... a suitable DVD is far much better than some of the gaming that is targeted at kids.

I take a complete interest in my kids TV/DVD/Computer & Gaming activities and so far my 'active' participation has worked.

I would rather my kids relaxed and watched a movie on long journeys than get bored and either irritate each other or me. Believe me there are not any sights along I95 worth seeing.

Are the billboards for "South of the Border" no longer there?

I remember driving down to Florida on I95 when my sister and I were young, and they were probably the only thing that got us through without our father killing us.

The place itself was so underwhelming as to be hilarious.

But seriously, DVD players, iPods and laptops are a godsend not only to kids, but travellers of all ages. I'm fortunate in being able to read in a car, but many people get carsick if they try it.

Are the billboards for "South of the Border" no longer there?

Yes those and ones for topless bars ;)

Thank you