At least with dual format discs, it was a possibility that once prices got a little lower, they could stop producing the DVD versions of movies and force people to get the dual format versions, pushing people into having HD media for an easy switch.

With that not as a possibility on bluray discs, how will the companies ween consumers over to HD? People will not want to buy a Disney Bluray disc that cannot play in their kid's room or in the car. I"m sure there are many other movies that will fall under that same criteria.

Can bluray win against DVD without any way to draw consumers away from DVD? At least dual format discs provided a possible way to do it.

The genious of the combo disk... too bad it's apparently not feasible on blu.

One simple answer. Cheap prices and good advertising. Until then, NOTHING with change.

I love the concept of the combo disc - it's been noticeably annoying not to be able to play my blurays on the upstairs tv for the kids or to take them on the long road trip I made this weekend.

On the other hand, only a few of the HD-DVD's I have are combo disks anyway - and not Shrek 3 or Transformers, which are two that I would use for this purpose!

The way to wean consumers off DVD? Same as weaning them of SDTV's - adverstising and demos. I think retailers are mostly doing a good job educating people that just becaue they buy an HDTV, they don't automatically have HDTV. They're pushing HD content - Bluray just needs to be part of that. "With this new HDTV, you'll want to upgrade your cable/satellite service and your DVD player to HD."

You're not going to ween the 65% of people in NA who don't have hdtvs. You appeal to the user of those high def televisions with their stretched pictures thinking that's hdtv. they bought a hdtv to supposedly see the benefits of it. Explain and exploit the benefits. Hit that market hard and of course cost will always be a factor.

Why would they want to "ween" users off DVD? Remember that their game is multiple-dipping. I would keep the prices of HDM disc high to generate maxium profitability. HDM consumers have HDTV and therefore should have more disposible income than the general public. It is not like all or nothing. They can still sell DVD if the users are not willing to pay that much for HDM.

The same way people were "weened" off of VHS?

Sony has been doing a lot of player/PS3 combo deals with HDTVs.

The same way people were "weened" off of VHS?

People were weened off of VHS because DVD offered a completely superior experience and especially in one key area: Convenience.

No longer did you have to rewind your tapes.
No longer did you have to mess with your tracking to get the picture right.
No longer did they take up a large amount of space in your movie rack.

Where does bluray offer the same convenient experience over DVD? Improved picture and sound appeals to AV guys, but I don't see it as the DVD replacement that these new Warner Bros moves are trying to usher in.

I dont think they want to "ween" people off of DVD. They just wanna sell us more stuff. I know that sounds simple but thats the name of the game. This whole HDM thing is about this surge in HDTV sales. So now not only can they sell you overpriced cables when you buy your HDTV set...but they can unleash a whole new player and media disc at you too. $$$$$$$

you ween them off the same way vhs users were weened off. I remember when all the big name movies were starting to get better exposure on dvd and it made it really appealing. When my uncle bought one in 1998 i was ecstatic. The more you hype it out to the SD'ers the more they'll want it. No matter what anyone says, give a SD'er a chance to go hi-def they will. Also i believe they should start showing commercials split-screen showing the difference of dvd vs. hi-def just like disney shows how they restored their old movies.

The same way people were "weened" off of VHS?


They never had to people in droves ditched VHS. This are much different this time around. People had 1 or 2 VCRs now days people have DVD players in every room in the car and other portable units. Also it was the no rewind,form factor and durability that won people over PQ/SQ was just a bonus. People are deeply entrenched in DVD especially familys with small kids who got the mini van with the built in player.

Good luck convincing them to spend a **** load of money to replace all those player especially portable ones. These are the same people who rip the lowest quality MP3s. These are the people who will buy the cheapest HD tv out there because they want a thin TV.

Blu is going to be the LD of this generation. The masses don't care enough abou SQ/PQ to move on to new formats. A format shift happens because of tangeables like form factor in general it takes a revolution to get a format change.

you ween them off the same way vhs users were weened off. I remember when all the big name movies were starting to get better exposure on dvd and it made it really appealing. When my uncle bought one in 1998 i was ecstatic. The more you hype it out to the SD'ers the more they'll want it. No matter what anyone says, give a SD'er a chance to go hi-def they will. Also i believe they should start showing commercials split-screen showing the difference of dvd vs. hi-def just like disney shows how they restored their old movies.

LMAO you really expect people to spend thousands to move on for PQ/SQ? Hell look at home consoles which one is kick the **** out of the others? That would be the SD one. A combo disc or including the DVD version is the only chance to get people over. Other wise people have to keep 2 libraries which is stupidly expensive one for the HT and one for ever where else.

Also i believe they should start showing commercials split-screen showing the difference of dvd vs. hi-def just like disney shows how they restored their old movies.


Oh you gotta love it when they show those commercials on SDTV. HD IS CLEARER AND BRIGHTER while it's just showing a super high contrast video of a tiger in the jungle with vibrant colors.

Or when they advertise HD radio on your regular stereo by saying EXPERIENCE THE CLARITY OF HD RADIO in super reverb glory... :o

The same way people were "weened" off of VHS?

Blu won't be a format for everyone, but TV's are progressively getting larger.. and as TV's get larger, higher resolution will be more noticeable. It's that simple really.. It won't be as widely adopted as dvd, but I imagine it taking a significant market share as people want to buy bluray to "future proof" their collection..

They won't ween them off for a long time,only 13% of US households have a HDTV.
Sales of SD DVD's in 2007 were $16 billion vs. $300 million for HD.

How about doing more of the same: offer a better product and watch volumes increase and prices decrease. As people buy more HDTVs and replace DVD players, they will buy Blu-Ray. It is a better product and it will soon cost only marginally more than DVD. That's how DVD replaced VHS, CD replaced tapes, etc. There is no hurry now that there is one format. Holiday 2008 will likely be the sweet spot for significant adoption.

This is yet another thread premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray has to completely replace DVD next week or HDM dies. That is false, as is every argument constructed on that erroneous foundation.

How about a high qaulity product at an affordable price, they're only a halvesies so far,

How about doing more of the same: offer a better product and watch volumes increase and prices decrease. As people buy more HDTVs and replace DVD players, they will buy Blu-Ray. It is a better product and it will soon cost only marginally more than DVD. That's how DVD replaced VHS, CD replaced tapes, etc. There is no hurry now that there is one format. Holiday 2008 will likely be the sweet spot for significant adoption.

This is yet another thread premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray has to completely replace DVD next week or HDM dies. That is false, as is every argument constructed on that erroneous foundation.

You mean like DVD-A and SACD? There is no reason for the average person to go blu unless they replace every player in the house/car/portable unless they want to buy media 2 times. People might be buying 1 HD-TV what about the other 3 TVs in the house? How long before that TV in the kids playroom room is HD? And most people are buying hd-tvs for the form factor. They want a 3 inch thick LCD so they can get rid of the big old CRT in the living room. They will not even hook up OTA or get HD cable.

No sort of combo disc has ensured blu will be the next LD. Nothing wrong with that it lasted 20 years and gave much better SQ/PQ to those who wanted to pay for it. The masses stuck with the cheap and dirty VHS.

This is yet another thread premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray has to completely replace DVD next week or HDM dies. That is false, as is every argument constructed on that erroneous foundation.

Exactly. These people seem to forget that it took four years for DVD to outsell VHS. We're only just past year one and the format war has caused a huge drag in pick up. DVD never had to deal with that.

How about a high qaulity product at an affordable price, they're only a halvesies so far,

+1

DVD won't be unseated as king unless Blu-ray is willing to price competively, ie. no more than about $70 for an entry level BD player compared to say a decent DVD upconverter.

Speaking of which the CEMs really shot themselves in the foot by releasing DVD upconvert players in the first place during the whole format war debacle.

Not only do you have to convince the DVD only crowd that the 5 players in their home aren't good enough anymore, you have to explain to them why the upconverter you stamped 1080p doesn't give them the same 1080p you're Blu-ray player is stamped with.

To succeed DVD, a lot of work will have to be done to clear up all the nonsense and confusion around HD that the CEMs themselves are responsible for.

And before anyone asks, yes that rant also applies to Toshiba for selling 1080p upconverters as well.

One simple answer. Cheap prices and good advertising. Until then, NOTHING with change.

However...cheaper Blu-ray prices will likely translate to even cheaper SD DVD prices... which will not necessarily motivate the average consumer to switch...

However...cheaper Blu-ray prices will likely translate to even cheaper SD DVD prices... which will not necessarily motivate the average consumer to switch...

Yep, so HDM is screwed... Just kidding. But it will be an uphill battle to make people convert.

Before the format war, the big concern in HD land was the market saturation rate of HDTVs. That's not a problem now. People are buying them in a big way, and they "get" what HDTV is about now. Marketing that clearly explains that Blu-ray takes full advantage of their new HDTV's capabilities, and that Blu-ray is as big a revolution as VHS to DVD will tell them what they need to know. These last few days have brought both HD DVD and Blu-ray to the forefront and this itself will raise awareness of the format. Its a slipperly slope now, and I expect we'll see adoption of HD disc media and hardware skyrocket this year.

Another false argument is frequently made, including here. HDM is dead unless it is immediately priced at some arbitrary level far below what it took to get people to buy DVD, replacing VHS. Let's see how things play out over the next six months, and then at the holidays.

Before the format war, the big concern in HD land was the market saturation rate of HDTVs. That's not a problem now. People are buying them in a big way, and they "get" what HDTV is about now. Marketing that clearly explains that Blu-ray takes full advantage of their new HDTV's capabilities, and that Blu-ray is as big a revolution as VHS to DVD will tell them what they need to know. These last few days have brought both HD DVD and Blu-ray to the forefront and this itself will raise awareness of the format. Its a slipperly slope now, and I expect we'll see adoption of HD disc media and hardware skyrocket this year.

In the consumers eyes, VHS to DVD was a much larger obvious benefit. Durability, no rewind, no tracking correcting, and much less shelf space. Plus the idea of movies on disc instead of a bulky tape was a selling point itself. HDM has one main advantage.. picture clarity..which only benefits the minority of TV owners that own a HDTV. Then, beyond that, you have to sell the idea that it's worth the upgrade and rebuying all of your movies. It's a tough sale.

might be alot of blu stocking stuffers next chritmas.

HD (of any format) will be a niche market until......

The overwhelming majority of TVs in the US homes are HDTVs. That will happen eventually, through sheer attrition. But it may take a few more years.

But the other stumbling block folks forget about is the audio component.

To get any audio advantage out of HD, you need a home theatre system. While these have become much more popluar in the last few years, MOST families in the US still do not have them. If they do have one, it's usually a HTiB.

Until folks have HDTVs in their homes and the manufacturers mass market reasonably priced HD HTiBs, it's going to continue to be niche.

How does blu convert people from DVD?

Offer combo deals with TV manufacturures.
Create BD portable devices.
Make deals with automobile manufacturures to put BD into their cars.
Studios stop producing, or limit the number of DVD's sold and force the issue.

Would you buy a car for 30,100 if it had BD in it or pay 30,000 for a DVD player? At that price what's $100 extra?
If you buy a new $1500 TV and it comes with a BD player what are you going to watch? BD or DVDs?
If they make portable devices, then your kids can watch whatever they want at home or on the road.

It's just a simple matter of switching from SD devices to HD devices. It will happen, it's just a matter of time.

Oh you gotta love it when they show those commercials on SDTV. HD IS CLEARER AND BRIGHTER while it's just showing a super high contrast video of a tiger in the jungle with vibrant colors.

Or when they advertise HD radio on your regular stereo by saying EXPERIENCE THE CLARITY OF HD RADIO in super reverb glory... :o

I bought Rattatouille on SD DVD and the upconverted video quality looks downgraded in comparison to Monsters Inc. Monsters is near HD quality where the Rat is showing many artifacts.
Other animated movies look near HD too. Chicken Run, Incredibles all amazing image quality considering it's upconverted SD.

The lower Rat quality might be a one off but I would not put it past them that it's part of a bigger plan to sway the masses.

I'd say cheeper software prices. In my opnion the $99 dollar HD-DVD player proved this the players flew off the shelves yet the software did not follow. why software prices. come tuesday. the New HD owner see the $16.99 DVD on sale or the $24.99-34.99 HD-DVD (combo $ @BB). the big places need to offer sales in the first week prehapps $19.99 on new Blu-rays and $15 for the DVD. i think that would be fair. so this need to be wal*mart, target, best buy CC. not just amazon and frys.

prehapps offer something folks want such as UR, DC only on BR.


overall it will be tough to sell HDM. DVDs been around for 8 years, most started collections 5-6 years ago. VHS did not have this. why beacause collecting DVDs was great. they were cheep, didnt were out, not rewinding. and you could store sevreral hundred in a CD book. or a small set of shelves. prehapps this is why D-VHS didnt catch on great format. but you still have tapes.
anyway, to tell folks oh sorry you DVD collection thats on a few years old is now being replaced by HDM. i think if HDM would have come sooner it may have gone better. their would be cheep players and software. allowing folks to hook them up to regular TVs. but then greatlly impove PQ on a HDTV.

The lower Rat quality might be a one off but I would not put it past them that it's part of a bigger plan to sway the masses.

Now that's a scary thought. It wouldn't surprise me either.

I don't think HD media will ever replace DVD. Walmart has been selling lots
of HD televisions lately and will in the future. Trouble is most of them are small.
Lets say 32" and under. Why would someone with a television that small even need HD media. Probably no surround sound system or at least not a very good one. Why would they need lossless audio? Looking at the blu ray tier thread there's a lot of titles that look little better than their dvd counterparts. DVD won't be going anywhere for a long time.

A $99 player ought to do it. Otherwise, DVD will reign king.

It doesn't matter that its Blu-Ray or HD-DVD both would have the same obsticles ahead of them to unseet SD-DVD.

However a lot of people are thinking DVD's wont be replaced because the end user wont have the benifits that DVD had over VHS. This is crazy!! How many of your aunts, uncles, grandmas etc etc didn't want to buy DVD because they had VHS collections that wouldn't play on the DVD? How many of them could by day and date releases on VHS compared to DVD? What happend when video rental stores started having more and more shelf space devoted to DVD then VHS?

To put it this way my wife up until I purchased Blu-Ray thought that if I had a PS3 or HD-DVD player that I couldn't watch my DVD's in that player! This is the mentality that the VHS crowd had because that was true then...your VHS tapes were worthless. Now however you can still watch SD-DVD on a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player and it means that the money they spent over the years is not worthless anymore.

For "any" HD format to succeed they need 3 things.

1. To move new releases on SD-DVD 1-2 weeks later then you can get on HD
2. Knock the price down to $20-$23 on new releases
3. Inform the people that your new HD player can play your old DVD's better and allow you to adopt the new format and get the movies you want sooner.

DVD was a big step but don't think for a moment that the public actually switched because DVD's had chapters, special features or were smaller sized medias. They switched because they could purchase movies sooner, video stores phased out VHS, PQ and AQ was better and your local walmart/target/bestbuy had encaps showing you what you are missing by not switching.

HDM can recreate what happend to VHS very easily; but if they only choose to ignore how it happend in the past and focus on interactivity, PIP and internet connectivity then it wont work...average people could care less about those features. They just want movies as soon as possible and don't want to pay an arm and a leg for them.

The lower Rat quality might be a one off but I would not put it past them that it's part of a bigger plan to sway the masses.

I wouldn't put degrading SD DVD over time by the studios beyond them. However, will anyone notice degrade PQ on your typical kids TV or on a car DVD system?

The only way I can see BD taking off for the masses is if they included a 2nd disc with the standard movie for at least the films aimed at the kid market. Why on earth would I buy 2 versions of Cars/Rat and other movies that may be enjoyable for adults once or twice but not enough to double dip - they seriously think these people (myself included) will spend $50 for kids movies?.

If the masses do buy into BD then I see the rental companies winning most of the BD business for kid movies.

Oh you gotta love it when they show those commercials on SDTV. HD IS CLEARER AND BRIGHTER while it's just showing a super high contrast video of a tiger in the jungle with vibrant colors.

Or when they advertise HD radio on your regular stereo by saying EXPERIENCE THE CLARITY OF HD RADIO in super reverb glory... :o
:D Those commercials crack me up - I always think "they can see this how"?

Can someone site an example where an evolutionary format became a mass adopted format?

HDM are evolutionary formats. DVD was a revolutionary format.

Revolutionary Formats:

1. LP
2. Cassette Tape
3. VHS/Betamax
4. CD
5. DVD
6. LD (failed at mass adoption)

Evolutionary Formats

1. S-VHS
2. ED-Beta
3. DCC
4. 8mm
5. SACD/DVD-A
6. D-VHS
7. BD/HD DVD

how can studios stop making dvd? they would kill off their primary income for discs.

why will studios keep trying to sell bd for less then dvd? they might as well not bother since dvd is cheaper to make they will be loosing money on bd even if they try to sell it for the same price as dvd. where is the upside to the studios for weening consumers away from dvd to bd? is it so they can sell something that costs them more to make less money? why would they do that? ... sell at a loss and make up for it on the volume? ... makes no sense.

if they don't stop making dvd. why would anybody buy a bd player to put in a car when they already have dvd collections? there is no need for hd in a tiny screen in a car. a few tech weenies might want a player for bd in their car but nobody else will.

if i were going to put some technology in a car, i would put a large hdd and fill it up with a whole bunch of movies. then you just pick the movie you want from a menu and you don't have to bring the (pain in the rear) disc with you. bda have gone out of their way to prevent people from backing up their content to a hdd.

with sd dvd you can rip moves to hdd and that will be what people want. also, if the grey legality bothers you then downloading to hdd will get you to the same place. either way bd cannot compete with dvd or downloads due to the excessive use of drm and huge file sizes even if the format is cracked so that you have the ability to backup the data.

nobody is going to buy bd unless they want it for pq/aq or other bells and whistles like pip for a home theater or gaming. looks like most of gaming has no plans for bd either since ps3 is the last place gaming console and ms will likely now stick with dvd and focus on downloads instead of bd.

based on the behavior of the ipod generation. many many people care far less about pq/aq then they do about ease of use and portability.

a bd win means permanent niche status for hdm no matter how you slice it. eventually sony will have to stop throwing money at studios to get them to promote the format. then the prices of discs will go up.

downloads on the other hand are a huge potential money maker for studios. they have no inventory and no manufacturing costs. they just get a lump of cash every time somebody downloads something.

bd is laserdisc II.

By releasing content and lowering prices.

Same as any other technology change.

Before the format war, the big concern in HD land was the market saturation rate of HDTVs. That's not a problem now. People are buying them in a big way, and they "get" what HDTV is about now. Marketing that clearly explains that Blu-ray takes full advantage of their new HDTV's capabilities, and that Blu-ray is as big a revolution as VHS to DVD will tell them what they need to know. These last few days have brought both HD DVD and Blu-ray to the forefront and this itself will raise awareness of the format. Its a slipperly slope now, and I expect we'll see adoption of HD disc media and hardware skyrocket this year.Yeah, go into places like Costco and see how many standard definition TVs you see. I see none at the several locations I go to in Maryland. The public really does "get" HDTV as you precisely put it.

HD is the present and future. People will gradually adapt to Blu-ray as they replace DVD players in stores over the next 3-5 years.

It's not that complicated.

Can someone site an example where an evolutionary format became a mass adopted format?

HDM are evolutionary formats. DVD was a revolutionary format.

Revolutionary Formats:

1. LP
2. Cassette Tape
3. VHS/Betamax
4. CD
5. DVD
6. LD (failed at mass adoption)

Evolutionary Formats

1. S-VHS
2. ED-Beta
3. DCC
4. 8mm
5. SACD/DVD-A
6. D-VHS
7. BD/HD DVD

LP is a prime example of an evolutionary format. All the way from 78tpm laquers to 'direct digital mastered'.

LP is a prime example of an evolutionary format. All the way from 78tpm laquers to 'direct digital mastered'.

actually... you are right, 78 to lp is like dvd to hdm. except back then people didn't have much else to choose from.

btw: i have a collection of 78s. :)

HD is the present and future. People will gradually adapt to Blu-ray as they replace DVD players in stores over the next 3-5 years.

It's not that complicated.

It's extremely complicated. Studios want HD media to boost the currently supposedly declining revenue from DVD. The problem is that they can do nothing to intentionally debilitate SD DVD. Makes no sense as it's one of their largest revenue streams.

They want HD because they see a new stream of revenue. However, most of the sales they do get will be replacing SD sales, so there is very little to gain, especially if production and manufacturing costs are higher than DVD.

How much of the decline in SD DVD revenue is due to people being dissatisfied with price and quality? Other than early adopters here, likely the answer is none. The decline is more likely due to market saturation and the realization for many that having all of those movies on the shelf wasn't really worth it.

And the greatest complication for mass adoption is the ubiquity of SD DVD capabilities. I made the mistake of purchasing Shrek the Third on HD DVD instead of SD. My wife and kids don't understand why I would do that because the movie is now not portable. What's the incentive for people to pay more for a movie that will not play on all of their players and computers?

This is nothing like VHS to DVD. DVDs are far more prevalent in most homes than prerecorded VHS tapes were, and DVDs are far more prevalent in cars, and obviously, DVDs play much better in computers than VHS ever did.

You say 3-5 years, but with the way technology is changing, 3-5 years is a lifetime. WB knew that and that's why they spoke of the window of opportunity for HD media adoption. They know the window is small and fast closing, so they pushed for it now so that they could at least give it a shot to build a revenue stream before other delivery systems take over.

I think it'll be interesting to see this play out over the next three years. The announcements at CES show that there are many companies looking for many ways to compete for our HD entertainment dollars. Considering where we were with VHS, there's really no comparison.

actually... you are right, 78 to lp is like dvd to hdm. except back then people didn't have much else to choose from.

btw: i have a collection of 78s. :)

They could have stayed with the wax roll.

How about some real numbers . . .

2007 Box office take in the USA . . . $10 Billion

2007 DVD Revenue in the USA . . . . .$24 Billion ($42B ww)

2007 HDM Revenue in the USA . . . . .$300 Million.

That help all to see the picture of what is going on?

most of the sales they do get will be replacing SD sales,


that is the core of the problem. even hd enthusiasts are not buying much catalog.

so, new hd sales are mainly just day/date releases that they could have released on dvd and made the same money anyway.

They could have stayed with the wax roll.

too fragile. no scratch resistant coating. :)

I think studios want to make more money, so they want a new format so people that want better resolution will need to double deep. If the plan is to get a product with a higher price (even as little as $3-5 increase) they need to offer an option for people with small screens. I can't see all cars in 8 years or portable media to be bluray, I mean what for, I can't see 1080p on a 7" screen at 2'.

So, maybe they are thinking to offer some downloadable content, just like they say about the ps3 and psp, a portable version for psp that can be downloaded from the ps3 that came with the BR disc.

With HD DVD it was easier to create a twin disc with 1 layer a smaller resolution version for all portable and car DVD players. The DVD spec uses lower resolution of 352x480, so the bitrate and space needed for that will easily fit any movie on a single layer DVD (one of the 3 layers on a 3 layer tiwn HD disc). I mean, a 352x480 movie on a 7" screen should not look bad because the picture is so small that many people at viewing distance can say if the movie is 352x480 or 720x480 (normal DVD resolution).

Maybe BR can include a ~3GB version of the movie at 352x480 in iso format and a way to burn the iso to standard DVD to play it in the car, or include an extra disc with already burn material that will look OK on small screens but for better and bigger experience use the BR version with full resolution/bandwidth. In the cars manufacturers can change the DVD player for a HDD player that can play this ISOs, so you just need to wireless the content to your car and select play.

How about some real numbers . . .

2007 Box office take in the USA . . . $10 Billion

2007 DVD Revenue in the USA . . . . .$24 Billion ($42B ww)

2007 HDM Revenue in the USA . . . . .$300 Million.

That help all to see the picture of what is going on?

of that $300 million how much is catalog sales vs. day/date?

of that $300 million how much is catalog sales vs. day/date?


Here is the breakdown on the $300 Million:

BD - 7 studios . . . $170M

HD DVD - 4 studios - $130M

The split between D/D and Catalog is 65/35 for both formats.

BD - $110.5M D/D and $59.5M Cat.

HD DVD - $84.5M D/D and $45.5M Cat.

Why does everyone assume we are only switching to HDM because the studios think they can make more money over DVD? In reality VOD is the reason why HDM is so important to the studios!

Being HD is the only thing that makes VOD unviable for the studios because the picture and audio quality can "just" match what is available on DVD and not HD. Without a better format it was only a matter of time before VOD replaced DVD and the studios would not make nearly as much with VOD as they would with direct sales of HDM and SD-VOD.

Everyone assumes that VOD will make the studios a killing when in fact the people who purchase an entire movie only to watch it 1-2 times is where the money is actually made. VOD can only make a significant amount of money if the individuals using it watch and pay for the same VOD multiple times. VOD just turns the movie studios into one giant rental agency that they now have to share the profits with someone else..ala Apple, Microsoft, Netflix etc etc.

Being a company would you rather sell your HDM discs for $15 or sell a VOD rental for $4? Now think in terms of profit; if that $15 HDM cost $4 to produce with fees, manufacturing and distributer cuts a profit of $11 is made from that consumer. Now if that VOD rental has a $1 fee to Apple, Microsoft etc etc and it is rented by one individual 3 times that made them $9 in profit?

Obviously the studios understand that a VERY large portion of consumers are not going to pay $10+ to download a movie to thier computer and be limited by that. They would in turn use a VOD rental and what profit would they get from that? People seem to think that MP3's outsell CD's because people don't care about quality...then why are these people not purchasing the entire album in MP3 format? MP3's allowed the consumer to pick and choose what songs they wanted and take them with them. If MP3's could only be purchased as a complete album for $9.99 I highly doubt they would be as succesfull as they are now. People were fed up of paying $15 for a CD with only 2 good songs on it and got used to low quality files because dial-up wouldn't permit the larger files for quality. When MP3's first became popular a song took over 6 minutes to download; people got used to the quality and said "for free, this is good enough for me". Don't assume people would choose a 128k MP3 over a 320k MP3 if the cost was the same.

VOD is why HDM was created; VOD was poised to replace DVD but will be very hard to replace HDM. Once the consumers get hooked onto HDM, VOD will be a very VERY tuff sell as the quality and usability would diminish. Studios would rather open up all the revenue streams available and limiting themselves to VOD is much less profitable then HDM; but at least with HDM they can can still have both.

So when will there be $50 portable Blu-ray players with built-in screens?
When will there be affordable Blu-ray players for mini-vans?
When will people be willing to replace ALL the DVD players in their house?
When will people be willing to replace all those TVs with built-in DVD players?
When will people notice a big difference between DVD and blu-ray on their 32 inch and less HDTVs?
When will there be ANY difference between DVD and plu-ray on the vast majority of TVs which are SD only?
When will people care if a comedy is HD vs. upscaled SD?
I could go on all day with ther questions.

Let's face it HDM is a niche for early adopters and people with large HDTVs and HT rooms. For everything else SD DVD is the way to go...even many people with large Tvs would buy HDM because it doesn't work with their other 5 DVD players and its not worth it to replace them all.

HDM = Niche

Here is the breakdown on the $300 Million:

BD - 7 studios . . . $170M

HD DVD - 4 studios - $130M

The split between D/D and Catalog is 65/35 for both formats.

BD - $110.5M D/D and $59.5M Cat.

HD DVD - $84.5M D/D and $45.5M Cat.

so basically all of this got the studios about $100M in sales (assuming enthusiasts would buy day/date releases anyway on sd dvd if hdm didn't exist).

i wonder how much of that would have happened without the bogos and other promotions.

EDIT: i wonder how much the bda and hpg companies have spent on promotion alone trying to get hdm off the ground.

...Being a company would you rather sell your HDM discs for $15 or sell a VOD rental for $4? Now think in terms of profit; if that $15 HDM cost $4 to produce with fees, manufacturing and distributer cuts a profit of $11 is made from that consumer. Now if that VOD rental has a $1 fee to Apple, Microsoft etc etc and it is rented by one individual 3 times that made them $9 in profit?

Obviously the studios understand that a VERY large portion of consumers are not going to pay $10+ to download a movie to thier computer and be limited by that. They would in turn use a VOD rental and what profit would they get from that? ...

Think outside the box.

I foresee a subscription service to an HD media center. Rather than being housed on a home PC it would be on the Internet. For a monthly fee of say $50, you can browse movies, look up reviews, list actors, view cover art, and then select the movie you want to see. Your choice would be from thousands rather than the small amount you have purchased. You would no longer have to worry about misplacing discs, damaging them, or even having to get up and search through what you have trying to remember if you still have that one.

Companies love subscription services because they lock in users. It guarantees them revenue and is far better than having to rely on the fickle public going to the store and purchasing HDM.

Comcast: 1,000 HD 'Choices' In 2008

The cable operator will expand its HD VOD lineup.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 8, 2008) -- Comcast plans to offer more than 1,000 High-Definition "choices" by year's end, including channels and HD VOD programs.

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts is expected to reveal the company's high-def strategy today during his keynote speech before the Consumer Electronics Show.

The executive will say that the cable operator will dramatically expand its VOD lineup, particularly for high-def.

By 2009, Comcast plans to offer 6,000 movies on demand with roughly 50 percent being available in high-def.

Comcast now offers around 1,300 movies each month in its VOD lineup, according to Multichannel News.

Roberts' speech will attempt to counter the growing perception that DIRECTV, which now has nearly 90 HD channels, has the most varied high-def lineup.

In a statement release this morning, Comcast said:

"Beginning next year, Comcast plans to offer more than 6,000 movies a month, and more than 3,000 of them will be available in HD. Today, Comcast Digital Cable customers can choose from new releases as well as hundreds of free movies from Sony, MGM, FEARNet and Encore as well as movies from premium networks like Starz, HBO, Cinemax, Showtime and The Movie Channel – all available at their fingertips with no additional equipment."

http://www.tvpredictions.com/comcast010807.htm

There is no additional charge for On Demand. Comes with the CBL service.

Comcast: 1,000 HD 'Choices' In 2008

The cable operator will expand its HD VOD lineup.
By Swanni



http://www.tvpredictions.com/comcast010807.htm

There is no additional charge for On Demand. Comes with the CBL service.

Comcast even has free HD movies available to view monthly. I've been in love with it so hearing that they have plans to bring even more content is great!

Think outside the box.

I foresee a subscription service to an HD media center. Rather than being housed on a home PC it would be on the Internet. For a monthly fee of say $50, you can browse movies, look up reviews, list actors, view cover art, and then select the movie you want to see. Your choice would be from thousands rather than the small amount you have purchased. You would no longer have to worry about misplacing discs, damaging them, or even having to get up and search through what you have trying to remember if you still have that one.

Companies love subscription services because they lock in users. It guarantees them revenue and is far better than having to rely on the fickle public going to the store and purchasing HDM.

I think you hit the nail on the head here and I believe that's where Netflix is headed. I think we will see purchased downloads available too where you can buy it once and you store it for long term ownership if you have the space.

The real thing that's holding things back right now for downloads is the lack of a device or devices that will make an easy transition and user friendly experience for the mass market.

Apple is experimenting with Apple TV, MS is experimenting with Xbox Live Video Marketplace and IPTV. Both already have portable digital media solutions that in my opinion are just a generation or away from being able to offer playback in your vehicle. Apple TV, Live Video Marketplace, the iPOD and Zune may lead us in.

Given that MS is already looking at ways to bring the Live experience to Windows, I wonder if they've explored making the Video Marketplace available to Windows users.

Combined with media extenders, slingboxes, and ever growing cheap expanding HDD capacity that kind of move could be huge as well.

Bottom line: Downloads are being seen by several companies as the undiscovered country for video including HD. Everyone's clamoring to get first dibs on a successful delivery model. It's just a matter of time.

I think $199 is the price point most people are waiting for. Many of us early adopters will jump soon, or maybe wait till $299, but I think at $199 you'll see a mass exodus from DVD to BD. When DVD players are $99 and under, it's hard for middle America to justify replacing their player for something $299 or $399.

I think $199 is the price point most people are waiting for. Many of us early adopters will jump soon, or maybe wait till $299, but I think at $199 you'll see a mass exodus from DVD to BD. When DVD players are $99 and under, it's hard for middle America to justify replacing their player for something $299 or $399.

Keep dreaming the family is not moving on the a format that will not play in the minivan or the kids play room. Sony was very short sited with blu. It should of had 1 or 2 layers for DVD play back. People will just look at blu like they did LD. Even though DVD had 1000x more advantages over vhs than HDM does over DVD people did not move over in mass till the price hit 99 dollars. Then the market exploded when it was hitting sub 50 dollars.

Blu will be a more accepted LD is all. 25% market share while the masses stick to DVD. People are so far entrenched in DVD it is not even funny. The 30 dollar player has gotten DVD hooked up to every TV in the house and 69 dollar portable units have people putting multiple units in the car.

Neither format would have beat DVD its too entrenched. All options will share the stage for the foreseeable future.

People here are being short sighted. Do you really think portable disc movie players are the future? Have you not seen the iPhone, PSP, or iPod video (classic & nano). The future of portable movies is digital. Especially considering screens for portable use are smaller resolution thus need less bandwidth for full resolution. Do you really think someone will not pick-up a blu-ray player because the discs won't play in their mini-van? The future is personal portable devices. Then your kids can watch their own movie instead of arguing over what to watch.

Fox is going to offer PSP rips off of a blu-ray disc. This is will help blu-ray suceed in the long term. However it will be a battle with Apple and digital distribution for the portable market.

I think the transition to HDM will be similar as the transition to HDTV. It will be over time through attrition. At some point it will be a quality battle with digital distribution. At that point, the consumer base will be split between people who want the highest quality versus people who want convenience. There may be enough of a market for both formats to co-exist.

HDM will not last forever just like DVD will not last forever. Something better will always come along as technology advances. Eventually digital distribution will take foothold, but that is further off since broadband isn't easily accessible for everyone unlike HDTVs.

People here are being short sighted. Do you really think portable disc movie players are the future? Have you not seen the iPhone, PSP, or iPod video (classic & nano). The future of portable movies is digital. Especially considering screens for portable use are smaller resolution thus need less bandwidth for full resolution. Do you really think someone will not pick-up a blu-ray player because the discs won't play in their mini-van? The future is personal portable devices. Then your kids can watch their own movie instead of arguing over what to watch.

Fox is going to offer PSP rips off of a blu-ray disc. This is will help blu-ray suceed in the long term. However it will be a battle with Apple and digital distribution for the portable market.

I think the transition to HDM will be similar as the transition to HDTV. It will be over time through attrition. At some point it will be a quality battle with digital distribution. At that point, the consumer base will be split between people who want the highest quality versus people who want convenience. There may be enough of a market for both formats to co-exist.

HDM will not last forever just like DVD will not last forever. Something better will always come along as technology advances. Eventually digital distribution will take foothold, but that is further off since broadband isn't easily accessible for everyone unlike HDTVs.

So you expect the average person on top of replacing all his DVD players to now buy a severall hundred dollar device for each child to replace the portable DVD player they already own? The economy must be damn good so people can afford a 1000 dollar hd-tv in every room 199 dollar blu player on each on each of those tvs and several hurdred dollar portable movie devices for each child.

The average person is running flipping SD cable through that HD-tv. The average peson is to cheap to add HD cable but will spend thousands for blu now? People could care less about the PQ on that HD-tv only that it is 3 inches thick.

It's extremely complicated. Studios want HD media to boost the currently supposedly declining revenue from DVD. The problem is that they can do nothing to intentionally debilitate SD DVD. Makes no sense as it's one of their largest revenue streams.

They want HD because they see a new stream of revenue. However, most of the sales they do get will be replacing SD sales, so there is very little to gain, especially if production and manufacturing costs are higher than DVD.

How much of the decline in SD DVD revenue is due to people being dissatisfied with price and quality? Other than early adopters here, likely the answer is none. The decline is more likely due to market saturation and the realization for many that having all of those movies on the shelf wasn't really worth it.

And the greatest complication for mass adoption is the ubiquity of SD DVD capabilities. I made the mistake of purchasing Shrek the Third on HD DVD instead of SD. My wife and kids don't understand why I would do that because the movie is now not portable. What's the incentive for people to pay more for a movie that will not play on all of their players and computers?

This is nothing like VHS to DVD. DVDs are far more prevalent in most homes than prerecorded VHS tapes were, and DVDs are far more prevalent in cars, and obviously, DVDs play much better in computers than VHS ever did.

You say 3-5 years, but with the way technology is changing, 3-5 years is a lifetime. WB knew that and that's why they spoke of the window of opportunity for HD media adoption. They know the window is small and fast closing, so they pushed for it now so that they could at least give it a shot to build a revenue stream before other delivery systems take over.

Bingo. I couldn't agree more.

I

These are some of the same reasons why I really preffered the combos especially for family titles. When we have movie night everyone can watch in the big theater. Otherwise when my son or daughter or wife for that matter want to watch somewhere else they can. When I told my wife we couldnt watch the Bourne Identity upstairs she was like well whats the use of that. When I got Ultimatium she was able to watch upstairs. HDM is an enthusiast format for a long time to come IMO.

So you expect the average person on top of replacing all his DVD players to now buy a severall hundred dollar device for each child to replace the portable DVD player they already own? The economy must be damn good so people can afford a 1000 dollar hd-tv in every room 199 dollar blu player on each on each of those tvs and several hurdred dollar portable movie devices for each child.

The average person is running flipping SD cable through that HD-tv. The average peson is to cheap to add HD cable but will spend thousands for blu now? People could care less about the PQ on that HD-tv only that it is 3 inches thick.

Prices will fall. They always do.

Also, you cannot buy a non-HDTV. Sure people don't but $1000 TVs in their kids rooms, but more often than not they have a TV there.

People don't have to care about HD vs. SD as long as prices fall in-line with DVD (which they will eventually). Then all that matters is marketing.

There are lots of people out there that honestly don't care about HD picture or surround sound. One of my friends (who is loaded) does not want to get a HDTV, even after he has seen mine.

I really don't think that HDM will catch on until most people have HDTVs. After it begins to catch on and DVD's are phased out, then the nostalgic folks with SDTV's may also start to buy HDM players because there would be no other video storage medium.

At the end of the day the only thing that really matters to the general public is price. And the only way you will get people to switch, is for Blu Ray to be price competively with DVD and add more value. IMO, this will never happen if Blu Ray wins (and thats looking more likely every day). The unbridled greed, fanaticism (sp?) reqarding content protection and utter lack of respect for the consumer by the studios and CE mfg, will guarantee that HDM is destined to be a niche product.

What value does HDM bring to the table for the average consumer?? Higher picture quality? Nope, Better sound? nope, intearctivity nope, mandatory ACCS, nope, BD+? nope. To many on this forum, these extra features do add value, but to the general public, zero value.

HD DVD had the magic bullet that could have gotten people to switch, and that was the combo disc. Unfortunately the greed of the studios would not allow them to pull the trigger. The installed base of DVD players is much too large to expect large numbers of people to buy into a technology that requires them to replace the hardware they just bought. The combo would have allowed people to get the remaining value from their existing equipment, and then transition to HDM over time.

They won't ween them off for a long time,only 13% of US households have a HDTV.
Sales of SD DVD's in 2007 were $16 billion vs. $300 million for HD.

Where did you get these numbers? I have a hard time beliving that there was that big of a difference in SD vs HD sales.

For some reason I thought this thread was about the band "Ween".


BIG FAN RIGHT HERE.

I dont think they want to "ween" people off of DVD. They just wanna sell us more stuff. I know that sounds simple but thats the name of the game. This whole HDM thing is about this surge in HDTV sales. So now not only can they sell you overpriced cables when you buy your HDTV set...but they can unleash a whole new player and media disc at you too. $$$$$$$

don't forget they want you to buy two formats of the same movie, one blu and one sddvd. it's dumb to get blu when you can't play it anywhere else in the house. what do some blu people do? buy the sddvd version. more money for the studios. at least w/ hddvd there is combo disc, you don't get ripped a new hole. blu is just not consumer friendly, they are studio friendly. i can't believe blu peeps don't see this yet.

Where did you get these numbers? I have a hard time beliving that there was that big of a difference in SD vs HD sales.

Believe it:
http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSN0855567920080108

Believe it:
http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSN0855567920080108

after looking at those numbers looks like physical media is hear to stay.
consumers-1 analysts-0

The ideal way was EXACTLY how the HD Forum had planned it from the start...combo/hybrid. Granted, the price of the combos to date have not been exactly what might veer J6P towards making a change, but it was the most viable option. No one is going to want to have to pay for two copies of a movie if they can help it, and if it comes down to needing Ratatouille to keep the peace in the minivan, you better believe SDVD will be good enough. As BD'ers love to tout, "Content is King", and to a degree, it is very true. But no one will pay more for the content than they need to. And using the LD model does NOT apply as most VHS back then had an MSRP of ~$100, with the exception of huge blockbusters.

I think there are some options, though none may be feasible:

1) Sell the title with both a BD and SDVD - now I know the problem with this...someone takes the extra disc and sells it on ebay. Have the SDVD LOOK like a copy of a disc...as in no disc art, just title and company/catalog info.

2) Offer a way to purchase either the SD or BD version through the company with a valid purchase (ie. Purchase Ratatouille on BD and get the SD version through the mail for a small amount and proof of purchase or vice-versa). Make the disc unsellable (see above).

3) Make peace with HD Forum and figure out a way to get an SDVD layer on the BD (I am not sure IF this is physically possible, but if we can put a man on the moon, etc.).

I know none of these are perfect, but maybe my idea sparks an idea that sparks another idea and so on.

put the new releases on the market weeks ahead of sd.

They won't. It will take at least another year for Blu to get their act together enough to try and compete with DVD.

3) Make peace with HD Forum and figure out a way to get an SDVD layer on the BD (I am not sure IF this is physically possible, but if we can put a man on the moon, etc.).
I think this is what WB's TotalHD format allowed but for BR and HD, don't know if SD will be easier to do, now that WB is onboard this could be possible, the "bad" thing is that they need to pay to the DVD group.

EDIT: I forgot the protective coating, don't know if that will make a standard DVD read the DVD layer on a BR disc (if ever produced).

It will take time.
I don´t understand why some people think that BD can take over after just 2 years. It took a long time for VHS users to go DVD only.
Maybe 2-3 years from now BD will be more common in the homes.

"Wean" (to detach the affections of)

"Ween" (to think, to imagine, to fancy)

Now that I got that off my chest - I would love to see SD DVD be 100% replaced by HD/BR-DVD IF (big "if") they cost the same! But catalog DVDs can be had for $5 or less retail and that is about how much it cost to manufacture and distribute a BR disc (HD-DVD is about half that). If HD-DVD can somehow muster a revival it could replace DVD (which is why I have supported it all along) because it so so much cheaper to manufacture. But I don't see BR replaceing DVD - the economics are against it. Of course Sony could do what they did to spike BR - they could bribe the studios to simply stop making DVDs! Or they and the studios could bribe Congress (just as easy) to outlaw SD DVDs! Don't laugh, we already live in a neo-fascist country where the politicos have no problem violating the Constitution!

2-3 years from now, you won't be able to buy a DVD player. Instead, stores will only be stocking Blu-Ray players. This is no problem because they will still play DVDs, so there will be no reason to make DVD-only players (there's no profit in them TODAY!).

People replace their players all the time. Their old ones wear out, lack features, get broken, get lost during moves, and so on. People who own SUVs with DVD players today will trade in their vehicle for a new one (because they always do), and the new one will have a Blu-Ray instead.

What I'm getting at is that Blu-Ray adoption is going to happen, and for many, it will be nearly invisible. Attrition is going to ensure it. And 2 years from now, a LOT more people are going to know the difference, and, especially for new movies or "big, beautiful" catalog titles, they will make the effort to choose the Blu-Ray over the plain DVD, even if they don't care so much when buying a comedy or other non-eye-popping title.

All of the studios and CE manufacturers understand this, which is why they are so anxious to get to ONE format.

Could DVD Forum elege TL45 as new DVD standard ? what happens......

In my opinion, consumers will wean THEMSELVES off SD discs. Once HDTVs are more commonplace in homes (and they WILL be), people will want the highest PQ and AQ to go with their brand spankin' new HDTV. And let's face it, DVD's just don't cut it - even when they're upscaled.

At least with dual format discs, it was a possibility that once prices got a little lower, they could stop producing the DVD versions of movies and force people to get the dual format versions, pushing people into having HD media for an easy switch.

With that not as a possibility on bluray discs, how will the companies ween consumers over to HD? People will not want to buy a Disney Bluray disc that cannot play in their kid's room or in the car. I"m sure there are many other movies that will fall under that same criteria.

Two discs in one case: one DVD, one Blu-ray, same movie.

more BOGO and continue to lower the price of players. It will get there.... Technology WILL always advance...it's just a question when.

2-3 years from now, you won't be able to buy a DVD player. Instead, stores will only be stocking Blu-Ray players. This is no problem because they will still play DVDs, so there will be no reason to make DVD-only players (there's no profit in them TODAY!).

People replace their players all the time. Their old ones wear out, lack features, get broken, get lost during moves, and so on. People who own SUVs with DVD players today will trade in their vehicle for a new one (because they always do), and the new one will have a Blu-Ray instead.

What I'm getting at is that Blu-Ray adoption is going to happen, and for many, it will be nearly invisible. Attrition is going to ensure it. And 2 years from now, a LOT more people are going to know the difference, and, especially for new movies or "big, beautiful" catalog titles, they will make the effort to choose the Blu-Ray over the plain DVD, even if they don't care so much when buying a comedy or other non-eye-popping title.

All of the studios and CE manufacturers understand this, which is why they are so anxious to get to ONE format.


I could be wrong, but it seems I remember similar sentiments made about SACD and DVD-Audio. Everyone will eventually have to replace their old cd and dvd players and will purchase new ones with SACD/DVD-Audio capabilities. I even bought a dvd player with SACD capability. SACD/DVD-Audio did sound better than cd's, but I could make my own cd compilations and mp3 files with my cd's. So even though SACD was better, in the end, I still have my old cd player connected to my old Bel Canto upsampler. Even though HDM is better than std-dvd, I'll keep my old dvd player with its upconverting ability. I do not feel I'm missing out on anything not listening to SACDs and I do not feel like I'm missing out on anything not watching HDM's. I enjoy the AQ of cd's and PQ of std-dvds. Sure, background objects in HDMs are clearer than the slightly fuzzier background objects with Std-dvd, but having clearer background objects would not increase my enjoyment of the movie one whit more. Maybe I can be "weened" when HDM player's are >$75.00 and HDM software are in the bargain bin for >10 bucks...and I can also rip them to my hard drive, [even though they will use up more memory storage than std-dvds. :(]

The genious of the combo disk... too bad it's apparently not feasible on blu.

As a consumer of both formats, I have to say that I despise combos, as do most HDDVD supporters. Nothing like having a movie that doesn't play all the way through on the HDDVD side, or having a disc separate and kill your player (it happened to a guy on this forum), especially when you have to pay extra for the privilege. :mad:

How does blu convert people from DVD?

Offer combo deals with TV manufacturures.
Create BD portable devices.
Make deals with automobile manufacturures to put BD into their cars.
Studios stop producing, or limit the number of DVD's sold and force the issue.

Would you buy a car for 30,100 if it had BD in it or pay 30,000 for a DVD player? At that price what's $100 extra?
If you buy a new $1500 TV and it comes with a BD player what are you going to watch? BD or DVDs?
If they make portable devices, then your kids can watch whatever they want at home or on the road.

It's just a simple matter of switching from SD devices to HD devices. It will happen, it's just a matter of time.

This route should take at least 10 years if ever.

They will not wean any people off of DVD. Prices will go up and market penetration will stagnate

They weened me off of DVD.

Why do so many people think that the average American makes about as much as a Chineese farmer. My understanding is the middle class isn't doing to bad down there.

They weened me off of DVD.

Why do so many people think that the average American makes about as much as a Chineese farmer. My understanding is the middle class isn't doing to bad down there.

How does your 8 year old play Blu-ray movies while you drive the mini-van to Disneyland?

If someone tries to ween me off my DVD's I'll go all Chapman on them...
Got that, CRITERION?!!!

Studios stop producing, or limit the number of DVD's sold and force the issue.


I was just going to say something to that effect. By next summer when more people switch to cheaper HDTVs because of the broadcast changeover, one studio, maybe even a producer with final say, decides to release Transformers 2 on Blu-Ray only! By then maybe I'll have Transformers (1) on Blu-Ray. :cool::D

JP

I was just going to say something to that effect. By next summer when more people switch to cheaper HDTVs because of the broadcast changeover, one studio, maybe even a producer with final say, decides to release Transformers 2 on Blu-Ray only! By then maybe I'll have Transformers (1) on Blu-Ray. :cool::D

JP

I started a thread on this idea a few days back and everyone said I was nuts or laughed it off. This is what will happen like the posts from the first page said about weening us off dvd's.

A combination of the studios selling on BD alone and consumers purchasing will change it over from DVD to BD or whatever.

DVD's are already mastered in HD, so that issue is out of the way.

ever noticed how big this forum has grown over the years i am sure they keep records
but i spent years lurking before i joined that in itself tells me a growing number of
people are interested in better sound and video so why is it so hard to believe that
hd will not be accepted by the masses.

This is one area that HD DVD had a big advantage in. Everyone arguing against it must not have children.

Last night my son and I took out my old TMNT comic books (1st prints!) and I read the first one to my son (it was more graphic than I remember!). We then watched TMNT in the theater room (on a HD DVD player). Afterwards, he wanted to watch it again, but it was getting close to bed time. So we took the HD DVD up stairs, flipped it over and played it in his room (on a TMNT branded TV/DVD player, strangely enough). Everyone was happy.

Sorry, but I won't be replacing our 9 DVD players (! I just counted them: 1 in each bedroom (4), 1 in the family room, 1 in the kids room, 1 in each vehicle (2), 1 on the boat - I didn't count the HD DVD player in the HT or the computers (laptops)). Damn that seems excessive, but that's what we have right now.

So yeah, BD won't replace DVD until this problem is solved. I think it can be solved though. Use managed copy to allow me to create a DVD copy or better yet, just include a lower res MPEG2 version on the disc that I can use (to create a DVD or play digitally somewhere). Problem solved.

Disney has the most to lose here. I won't buy any "family" HDM media if it limits me to the home theater room.

John

ever noticed how big this forum has grown over the years i am sure they keep records
but i spent years lurking before i joined that in itself tells me a growing number of
people are interested in better sound and video so why is it so hard to believe that
hd will not be accepted by the masses.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/nielsenhd103107.htm

http://www.tvpredictions.com/study110707.htm

http://broadcastengineering.com/hdtv/hdtvs-hd-confusion/index.html

http://www.tvpredictions.com/idchd122007.htm

This is one area that HD DVD had a big advantage in. Everyone arguing against it must not have children.

Last night my son and I took out my old TMNT comic books (1st prints!) and I read the first one to my son (it was more graphic than I remember!). We then watched TMNT in the theater room (on a HD DVD player). Afterwards, he wanted to watch it again, but it was getting close to bed time. So we took the HD DVD up stairs, flipped it over and played it in his room (on a TMNT branded TV/DVD player, strangely enough). Everyone was happy.

Sorry, but I won't be replacing our 9 DVD players (! I just counted them: 1 in each bedroom (4), 1 in the family room, 1 in the kids room, 1 in each vehicle (2), 1 on the boat - I didn't count the HD DVD player in the HT or the computers (laptops)). Damn that seems excessive, but that's what we have right now.

So yeah, BD won't replace DVD until this problem is solved. I think it can be solved though. Use managed copy to allow me to create a DVD copy or better yet, just include a lower res MPEG2 version on the disc that I can use (to create a DVD or play digitally somewhere). Problem solved.

Disney has the most to lose here. I won't buy any "family" HDM media if it limits me to the home theater room.

John

+1

How did all of you raise your kids before cars had DVD players in them?

No interest in combos, kids or no kids. I buy HD media for the best PQ and AQ, nothing else matters imo.

All they have to do is to release the future DVDs with bad encoding, like the first Blade Runner release.

So yeah, BD won't replace DVD until this problem is solved. I think it can be solved though. Use managed copy to allow me to create a DVD copy or better yet, just include a lower res MPEG2 version on the disc that I can use (to create a DVD or play digitally somewhere). Problem solved.

My friend said exactly this...and then I reminded him that a consumer would have to own at least a BD-ROM...still way too expensive at this point.

How many people in the general public make copies of their discs?

I would guess that number to be less than 5% and even that would be a stretch. I am pretty techy and have all the current crap and have never made a copy of a single DVD I own. For most people this is a non-issue as is region coding.

Not a big issue... Players may last 5 years on average. As BD players get cheaper (<$200), anyone needing a player should get one rather than a standard player and just set the output to whatever their TV is. Basically using it like a standard player if they don't have a high-def TV, but being able to buy movies on either format.

i think the price drop on hdtv's was and still is the biggest factor for the the movement
of hdm its a lot easier to buy a 3 or 4 hundred dollar player than a 3 or 4 thousand
dollar tv with good hdtv's falling in the 12 hundred range the pace has picked up.

HD Media will never replace dvd now that HD DVD is going to lose. HD DVD offered a simple solution to the problem....offer hd and dvd version on 1 disk. Brilliant....

Who would ever pay to have a blu ray player installed in their car. Who is going to spend money on a portable Blu Ray player? It won't happen. There is no point to it.

HD Media will never replace dvd now that HD DVD is going to lose. HD DVD offered a simple solution to the problem....offer hd and dvd version on 1 disk. Brilliant....

Who would ever pay to have a blu ray player installed in their car. Who is going to spend money on a portable Blu Ray player? It won't happen. There is no point to it.


DO you rent your crystal ball out? If so I would like it next weekend. TIA.

If Toshiba loses the format war and HD DVD is dead . . .

Would they not then continue to improve DVD if they can? That is still their "baby."

If Toshiba loses the format war and HD DVD is dead . . .

Would they not then continue to improve DVD if they can? That is still their "baby."


Whats too improve? There are already upscaling players and the demand for real HD is growing. To back track like that would silly. DVD is fine the way it is and will continue to make Toshiba money. They can still capitalize on HD by making a high quality Blu-ray player and a good combo player.

DO you rent your crystal ball out? If so I would like it next weekend. TIA.

no need to have a crystal ball.
The I.C.E (In Car Entertainment) community has always been behind the adoption curve especially in the technology field.

DVD are just starting to actually be used primarily on OEM radio. Of course mostly for GPS navigation system but you can play movies on them.

HD anything. Be quite a while before that starts coming into I.C.E.

How did all of you raise your kids before cars had DVD players in them?

I didn't, I'm raising my kids now. My parents, or so they tell me, would have killed to have the options I have. They used to dread long car trips. I don't. Just pop in a movie and go. Much better than "punch buggy" which always turned into a fight. ;) We take more and longer trips because of it.

I LOVE having the DVD player on the boat. It allows me to stay out much longer than I would be able to without it (if the kids are there). Holding a kids attention on a boat for a long period of time is a challenge. Especially if you want to relax or do some fishing. The kids, when they get bored of waiting for the fish to bite, will go into the cabin and watch something and maybe fall a sleep. then they'll come back out later, refreshed and ready to catch the big one.


No interest in combos, kids or no kids. I buy HD media for the best PQ and AQ, nothing else matters imo.
What about the actual movie? Doesn't that matter? Wouldn't keeping your family happy matter?

To turn your question above around, what did you ever do before HDM? :p

John

My father's first VCR cost $1200.
My first DVD player cost 8 or 900.

Today looking on the Bestbuy (U.S.) web site the only VCR I can find costs 89.99. However, it's ALSO a DVD player. They have standalone DVD players for 27 - about 1/30th the price I paid about a decade ago.

My point is that people will have Blu-Ray players in the kids rooms, the car, and portable units not because 1080p is required, but because the cost will be so cheap that maintaining separate manufacturing, warehousing and retail space for SD-DVD and Blu-ray will be pointless.

My friend said exactly this...and then I reminded him that a consumer would have to own at least a BD-ROM...still way too expensive at this point.
That's a good point. You'd need to be able to read the disc to pull the content off to be burned. I'd be willing to invest in a BD-ROM drive though if it let me burn a DVD copy.

John

I think its going to be quite some time before we see affordable small screen TV/HD combos, portables and in-car systems. When they do come out likley be out of reach of many.

Even when they do - how many will upgrade an existing unit just to get HD - what benefit will they see on small screen and integrated audio?

Sure when its time to replace a broken unit the HD alternatives may be considered if priced right. But me thinks my 10 & 12 year olds will have gone of the college by then.

So no mater what those who don't think legacy playback is not important - my opinion is that HDM will not pentirate deeper than 30% of the DVD base before the next technology leap comes along.

That's a good point. You'd need to be able to read the disc to pull the content off to be burned. I'd be willing to invest in a BD-ROM drive though if it let me burn a DVD copy.

John


As would I, but few others would probably ever bother doing so.

My friend said exactly this...and then I reminded him that a consumer would have to own at least a BD-ROM...still way too expensive at this point.
Not if you have a PS3 and a home network, just like the new feature for PSP.

If Toshiba loses the format war and HD DVD is dead . . .

Would they not then continue to improve DVD if they can? That is still their "baby."
I don't know what they can improve with current players, with new spec there are quite a few things that can make a DVD better but that will be out of current spec. But I agree, Toshiba make a lot of money from DVD, if they can't make that money from b) then they will try to make something to make DVD better and live longer.

Whats too improve? There are already upscaling players and the demand for real HD is growing. To back track like that would silly. DVD is fine the way it is and will continue to make Toshiba money. They can still capitalize on HD by making a high quality Blu-ray player and a good combo player.

Make a DVD that has a 480i picture on one side and a 1080p picture on the other... all you need to do is buy a "special" DVD player that can take advantage of them.

:)

Hey.. maybe they just need to get rid of the whole "this is a new technology" and instead try to get consumers on board with a "this is improved technology"

By the way, y'all know the word is WEAN, not WEEN, right? As in "you all are weens for not knowing how to spell a simple word like 'wean'". :)

In short, they won't be able to "ween" consumers OFF DVDs.Most people simply don't watch or buy DVDs enough to replace their $50 dvd player and even if they eventually HAVE TO buy HDTVs, by that time direct download options/rentals/ownership will simply be a more convenient and economical option for them, as it will be for most people at that time.Even if BR were to replace HD-DVD totally by tomorrow, BluRay's days are numbered.Bandwith(wired and wireless) is growing at exhorbinant rates, as are affordable storage means(both in home and portable).There is no way any physical HD disc will ever MAKE inroads into consumers home's the way DVD did/has.As i said, the next big stop is DD and that fact is already known by the biggest companies(MS,Intel,Comcast,Cysco,Google,Apple,Samsung,Sharp, Toshiba,etc,) that will be ready to take advantage of it(some have already begun)when they feel the time is right.

When I go on a long trip we try and have discussions in the car. Try to show the kids interesting things along the way, point out stuff to them they may not notice. We plan frequent stops along the way at various points of interest and keep our kids entertained the old fashion way, by actually communicating with them. They have a time and a place to watch TV, and in the car isn't one of them.

Now that BD has won, more widespread adoption and economies of scale mean that BD players will become ubiquitous in cars, since they can also play all DVDs (so no loss to the consumer) and BDs.

It'll be easy to ween people off of DVD. As the US trends towards 90% HDTV penetration 2011 (as per HMM) the portion of people who regularly buy movies will alsoi disproportionately have BD players (active movie fans and HT buffs are both more likely to have an HD player, and to buy movies rather than rent). Since BDs are also more profitable for retailers, in a couple of years most new release space and the majority of non bargin-bin space will be BDs, At that point the 40-60% of people who don't have BD players will long since have realized that BD is "the next thing" and will purchase the now cheap ($50-100) players as their DVD players go tits up, or as they make an impulse purchase based on the cool new interactive features that the BD version of their favorite film has.

This will probably take 5 years, and that's ok. Now that this damned format war is ending, we'll have the time because market penetration can pick up to the rate it should have been at for the last year and a half.

How did all of you raise your kids before cars had DVD players in them?

No interest in combos, kids or no kids. I buy HD media for the best PQ and AQ, nothing else matters imo.

How many TVs do you have? How many are SD? How many are under 30 inches?

The TV in my bedroom is 20 inches and HD, but I can't imagine buying a new player for it when the one I have upconverts so well. A blu player would be realty worthless for it. I sit 12 feet away, and use the TV speakers.

The same goes for the 30 inch TV in my kids playroom. I user TV speakers, the couch is 10 feet away, and it uses a media player connected to my media server. It can either upscale DVD discs, or access about 150 DVDs and kids shows from the server.

I do have a PS3, but the reality is, that is a poor media player. The menus stink, they force a dumb information bar on you, i onlu suports a few formats (not dvd folder or VOBs), it does not show thumbnails, and it can not access IMDB for descriptions and such.

I do have a PS3, but the reality is, that is a poor media player. The menus stink, they force a dumb information bar on you, i onlu suports a few formats (not dvd folder or VOBs), it does not show thumbnails, and it can not access IMDB for descriptions and such.

The menus stink? That's debateable. They work just fine for me.

The information bar is not forced on you. - you can just turn it off.

It doesn't support dvd folders of VOBs, but it does support DivX and that's all I really need.

You CAN create thumbnails of videos stored on the hard drive, and you CAN access IMDB via the web browser.

So what's the problem?

This is the point I was trying to get at in a separate thread. BR winning the format war doesn't mean people will leave DVD. A/V geeks have somehow deluded themselves into thinking that superior audio and video will somehow get the mass public to migrate from DVD, and completely forget that it wasn't really the superior audio and video that got them to move to DVD in the first place (digital and smaller media size played a bigger role).

I think what actually WILL get people to leave DVD is...online distribution. If HD movies can be downloaded quickly enough or even streamed, people may actually consider giving up DVD. And again, the reason won't be because of better audio/video quality. It'll be because of (near) instant gratification and zero space requirements. Of course, the cost will also have to be better than DVD (as they should be with no manufacturing costs).

This is the point I was trying to get at in a separate thread. BR winning the format war doesn't mean people will leave DVD. A/V geeks have somehow deluded themselves into thinking that superior audio and video will somehow get the mass public to migrate from DVD, and completely forget that it wasn't really the superior audio and video that got them to move to DVD in the first place (digital and smaller media size played a bigger role).

I think what actually WILL get people to leave DVD is...online distribution. If HD movies can be downloaded quickly enough or even streamed, people may actually consider giving up DVD. And again, the reason won't be because of better audio/video quality. It'll be because of (near) instant gratification and zero space requirements. Of course, the cost will also have to be better than DVD (as they should be with no manufacturing costs).

You know what's funny is if you changed the "BR winning the format war" to "HD DVD winning the format war" that statement would be as equally true. (which is of course not very true at all)

You know what's funny is if you changed the "BR winning the format war" to "HD DVD winning the format war" that statement would be as equally true. (which is of course not very true at all)

That is correct, the only difference is the combo/twin. If that was used properly it could have provided a transition path. Without that transition any new format is facing a 5-10 year adoption timeline at the best.

Well, now that the public confusion over high definition video media is about to exit stage left, "they" won't have to do anything to "wean foks off of standard DVD.

The maxim that applies is "If you build it, they will come". Simply put good quality Blu-ray video discs out there, along with good quality Blu-ray players (available at reasonable prices) and folks will migrate themselves to high definition.

Something else to consider - even if your average joe does have a >42" HDTV and can see difference of HDM I'm sure most don't have a dedicated sound system. Most use HTIB systems so currently in addition to purchasing a HD player they need to get a receiver & speakers......so converting to HDM and seeing/hearing a difference is going to cost more than a HD player.

Something else to consider - even if your average joe does have a >42" HDTV and can see difference of HDM I'm sure most don't have a dedicated sound system. Most use HTIB systems so currently in addition to purchasing a HD player they need to get a receiver & speakers......so converting to HDM and seeing/hearing a difference is going to cost more than a HD player.

actually, most use the tv speakers. htib would be a big step for them.

When I go on a long trip we try and have discussions in the car. Try to show the kids interesting things along the way, point out stuff to them they may not notice. We plan frequent stops along the way at various points of interest and keep our kids entertained the old fashion way, by actually communicating with them. They have a time and a place to watch TV, and in the car isn't one of them.

good for you. you are free to buy bd exclusively.

now for the millions of people that have purchased portable players for the car (and playroom, kid's room, etc), they will buy kid's movies in sd. it's a reinforcing cycle of the lowest-common-denominator. they will continue buying family movies in sd, and they won't upgrade because there will always be a cheaper available sd player, and since their media is sd, they won't upgrade the player when they have to replace it.

that's the main reason i preferred hd dvd...the combo or twin could work for both applications. but on the bright side, we're talking about kid's movies here. i can stand to watch spongebob squarepants in sd.

Well, now that the public confusion over high definition video media is about to exit stage left, "they" won't have to do anything to "wean foks off of standard DVD.

The maxim that applies is "If you build it, they will come". Simply put good quality Blu-ray video discs out there, along with good quality Blu-ray players (available at reasonable prices) and folks will migrate themselves to high definition.

If Blu Ray's were cheaper than their SD counterparts, that would help too.

People will notice, for example, if Ratatoutille BR is $15.99, while SD is $19.99 or higher.

If Blu Ray's were cheaper than their SD counterparts, that would help too.

People will notice, for example, if Ratatoutille BR is $15.99, while SD is $19.99 or higher.

They might notice it and think there's must be something wrong with it, if something that is supposedly better is so much cheaper.

I don't think people mind paying a little bit of a premium for a higher quality product, just as long as it's not TOO much more. The best I can see happening is BR and SD pricing being on parity.

Something I mentioned here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12780681#post12780681) was that I used a portable DVD player to transition from VHS to DVD. Used in the the van and with the kids combo TV/VHS by plugging into composite inputs.

So if a CE came out with a portable HD player that had composite outputs (not seen an in car or combo TV with component or HDMI) that could help.

Now would a CE see value in that and would it be cheap enough is another issue.

Cheers,
Mark

something i have not seen mentioned is that people say a hd format will not work
because it cannot be played in a portable or auto what is stopping them from recording
their hd/blu-ray or dvd to a dvd-r to use on the others.

But you would need managed copy for that do do it legally - and remember your average joe may not know or want to do that either.

If managed copy was available then buring a 480p copy would suit me.

But you would need managed copy for that do do it legally - and remember your average joe may not know or want to do that either.

If managed copy was available then buring a 480p copy would suit me.

and since it's not, i'll probably end up buying the hd version to keep, then getting the sd version from netflix to burn copies of. it really shouldn't be this difficult.

something i have not seen mentioned is that people say a hd format will not work
because it cannot be played in a portable or auto what is stopping them from recording
their hd/blu-ray or dvd to a dvd-r to use on the others.
Copy protection. Especially on the Blu-ray side (BD+). Managed Copy would be a nice solution. BD+ is going to be a problem though.

John

Copy protection. Especially on the Blu-ray side (BD+). Managed Copy would be a nice solution. BD+ is going to be a problem though.

John

not for long SLYSOFT is is working on it, they say a crack for bd+ is coming:)

Some people just want to keep up with the Jones.

A friend of mine came over and watch Ratatouille on BD with his kids and now he wants to move up to a 60" plasma with a BD player. He currently has a 36" Sony Trinitron.

and since it's not, i'll probably end up buying the hd version to keep, then getting the sd version from netflix to burn copies of. it really shouldn't be this difficult.


Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the legality of this? You technically own a copy of the movie already...

Not if you have a PS3 and a home network, just like the new feature for PSP.

The average consumer is NOT going to own a PS3 as their disc player. The prices of players will HAVE to fall below PS3 price points for mass adoption.

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know the legality of this? You technically own a copy of the movie already...

Illegal, at least in the US. That won't really stop most people though, no more than DVD or music.

As I've said before, DVD will remain popular in part due to the ease of making copies, legal or not. HD-DVD and BD at least try to take this convenience/feature away. Has anyone considered the possibility that the declining DVD sales is just the same trend that we're seeing in music? We've seen how well trying to introduce a more restrictive format worked for the music industry.

Also, everyone assumes VOD will be HD, but it may not be, at least not in the beginning and IMO the majority of consumers will choose convenience over PQ. (assuming a company can actually offer a service that is easily accessible/convenient and not more restrictive than DVD)

In Australia around December this was added into the rental racks.
Plays next to the expanding blu ray selection on the new releases wall.
The free 40 page "whats new" magazine at the exit has a full page review on blu ray too.
Hits hd dvd hard and talks of a wonderful selection of blu ray media, players and computer support in Australia.

As I've said before, DVD will remain popular in part due to the ease of making copies, legal or not. HD-DVD and BD at least try to take this convenience/feature away. Has anyone considered the possibility that the declining DVD sales is just the same trend that we're seeing in music? We've seen how well trying to introduce a more restrictive format worked for the music industry.To expand on your point:

According to the CDSA, there were almost 9 billion DVD+-R/RWs sold worldwide last year. For 2008 they are predicting 10.6 billion DVD recordables. That is a lot of discs. To put that in perspective, it is more than the number of DVD discs replicated worldwide.

How many DVD recordables are used to "backup" DVD based movies vs. backup data? I suspect it is a huge number, and almost impossible to police by the studios.

Recordable/Re-Recordable Optical Disc Replication: Worldwide (http://www.contentdeliveryandstorage.org/stats/stat-recordable-worldwide.html)

-------------------------------------

A slightly different take on the situation studios find themselves in reveals that, last January a survey concluded:

At Least 25 Million Americans Pirate Movies (http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2087020,00.asp)


Roughly 25 million Americans—or 18 percent of the U.S. online population—have illegally downloaded a full-length movie, a study released Wednesday asserts.

In a study of 2,600 Americans polled via telephone and online, Digital Life America, a unit of Solutions Research Group, found that 32 million Americans had downloaded a movie at some point in the past.

Of that number, 80 percent of those users—or 25.6 million Americans—exclusively used peer-to-peer file-sharing sites, the vast majority of which have typically been used for exchanging copyrighted files. The number of regular file-sharing users doubled between 2005 and 2006, the study found. Note that the typical downloader is 29 years old and male; which IMO is someone who should be in the market for HDM.

So 25 million Americans download movies off the internet; countless others copy movies off of optical disc. That is a lot of people who really don't necessarily want to upgrade to a more DRM laden format.

IMO unless HDM players and discs costs the same as DVD players and discs, people will have little incentive to move to HDM. I thought HD DVD had the best shot at that in the shortest amount of time. We shall see how long it takes to get blu-ray to that point.

A slightly different take on the situation studios find themselves in reveals that, last January a survey concluded:

At Least 25 Million Americans Pirate Movies (http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2087020,00.asp)


Note that the typical downloader is 29 years old and male; which IMO is someone who should be in the market for HDM.

So 25 million Americans download movies off the internet; countless others copy movies off of optical disc. That is a lot of people who really don't necessarily want to upgrade to a more DRM laden format.

IMO unless HDM players and discs costs the same as DVD players and discs, people will have little incentive to move to HDM. I thought HD DVD had the best shot at that in the shortest amount of time. We shall see how long it takes to get blu-ray to that point.

The simple fact that a blu-ray movie will never play in a standard dvd player will definitely add to the dynamic here. It add incentive for some consumers to learn how to obtain DVD copies.

That will be some consumers that would not have bothered to look into it otherwise but now will be interested in owning both a High def copy AND a standard DVD copy of the same movie. Now once they have figured out how to obtain both copies without being forced to buy both disks in a store the pandoras box into copying has been opened up.

Maybe the this effect will be minimal, maybe not so minimal, but it will be a consequence of Blu-ray software having no backward compatibility.

The other possible issue is users finding out other ways to get High Def video on disk, or worse yet if pirates find other ways to distribute high def media developing a black market outside of BD. A real irony would be if this involved using an hd dvd player.

almost like current dvd players play dolby digital and dts
both camps can share royalties by combining cd-sacd-dvd-dvda -dvd hd/blue ray into a seamless playing unit by combining all these formats into a single decoder chip. Would blue ray licences holders be to greedy to dothis?

Quality.

For me to purchase more Blu-ray movies I want more old titles. All that is getting released is the new garbage that Hollywood is putting out. Where is LOA and Patton and other clasics. I have on HD-DVD Casablanca, and other older releases. I want more . At least Bonnie and Clyde is coming. What happen to the Battle of Britain, I was ready to buy that.

better setup at stores use a real 1080p set using the hdmi would be a plus i have seen
one or two set up wrong no wonder people claim the difference was not that much different.

One simple answer. Cheap prices and good advertising. Until then, NOTHING with change.I agree and even then you have to wonder how much J6P even really cares. I would think that HDM is by far much more interesting to people that participate on these forums than those that don't (I know that sounds like stating the obvious)

I think that for a lot of people choosing HDM versus SD is like asking them which blade of grass just grew 1/8 inch on some obscure corner in Dallas. I've gotta figure there's a whole lot of people that just don't give a damn. I work with a lot of technical people in very technical jobs and discuss HD topics with them occasionally. I thought, given their profession and backgrounds, that they'd be a lot more interested in the subject. A good deal of them could easily afford the equipment but they just don't care - it just has no real interest to them even if they have researched the matters at hand. And sure, some of them like HD but they only like it "so much" as a part of their lives. I just wonder how typical that is across the broad spectrum.

The sad truth for me was the Wal-Mart experience...

In Canada they have these nice displays with HD DVD on one side and Blu-ray on the other. Both have demo discs playing highlighting the plusses of the formats and the movies available, etc. on 37" LCDs. They look good, but at 37", they don't look that good.

And the customers simply don't care. They just run over to the $6.99 bin for DVDs.

Now, I do think that this anecdote isn't truly representative of all customers, and the Wal-Mart demographic may be different from the HD demographic to a certain extent, but it does illustrate that it will definitely be an uphill battle for hi-def media.

My personal belief is that HDM will be successful, but it won't replace DVD completely.

I think that for a lot of people choosing HDM versus SD is like asking them which blade of grass just grew 1/8 inch on some obscure corner in Dallas. I've gotta figure there's a whole lot of people that just don't give a damn. I work with a lot of technical people in very technical jobs and discuss HD topics with them occasionally. I thought, given their profession and backgrounds, that they'd be a lot more interested in the subject. A good deal of them could easily afford the equipment but they just don't care - it just has no real interest to them even if they have researched the matters at hand. And sure, some of them like HD but they only like it "so much" as a part of their lives. I just wonder how typical that is across the broad spectrum.

Yep, same story here. I'm an engineer at a large aircraft company. A majority of the people I work with have HDTV's of some sort, but so far only one of them that I know has bought a HDM player. The rest have the attitude that is being expressed/suggested in this thread. DVD is more than good enough for them (most have sub 50" displays) and pretty much all of them have multiple DVD players (family room, bedroom, kids room, car, computer, etc...).

I do agree with BuGsArEtAsTy though. HDM will likely have a place in the market, just not the place that DVD is enjoying, at least not anytime soon.

Well, now that the public confusion over high definition video media is about to exit stage left, "they" won't have to do anything to "wean foks off of standard DVD.

The maxim that applies is "If you build it, they will come". Simply put good quality Blu-ray video discs out there, along with good quality Blu-ray players (available at reasonable prices) and folks will migrate themselves to high definition.

The confusion won't be over until CEMs stop producing and selling 1080p upconverting players.

Note that the typical downloader is 29 years old and male; which IMO is someone who should be in the market for HDM.

So 25 million Americans download movies off the internet; countless others copy movies off of optical disc. That is a lot of people who really don't necessarily want to upgrade to a more DRM laden format.

IMO unless HDM players and discs costs the same as DVD players and discs, people will have little incentive to move to HDM. I thought HD DVD had the best shot at that in the shortest amount of time. We shall see how long it takes to get blu-ray to that point.

What I find interesting is these companies are not learning a thing from watching the music industry. Right now they're getting some protection from limited internet bandwidth and storage medium relative to the size of the video files, but it hasn't been very many years since the same situation existed for music. Now music is an almost trivial amount of data to download and store.

Here's one thing they can do... for a particular price range where both DVD and Blu-ray players exist, market the blu-ray player as a "DVD player that also plays blu-ray disks!" And remove the DVD-only players from the market in that price bracket.

This way, we sell players to people who are still in the quality DVD mindset, but they get blu-ray capability too.

At least with dual format discs, it was a possibility that once prices got a little lower, they could stop producing the DVD versions of movies and force people to get the dual format versions, pushing people into having HD media for an easy switch.

With that not as a possibility on bluray discs, how will the companies ween consumers over to HD? People will not want to buy a Disney Bluray disc that cannot play in their kid's room or in the car. I"m sure there are many other movies that will fall under that same criteria.

Can bluray win against DVD without any way to draw consumers away from DVD? At least dual format discs provided a possible way to do it.

First of all, Blu-ray doesn't have to "win against DVD" in order to be successful. As long as Blu-ray is profitable and worth the efforts of movie studios, software developers, and hardware developers, both Blu-ray and DVD's can coexist in the optical media market. Also, the adoption of Blu-ray is like most any other media and product. Those who are on the fence can now feel more confident in buying Blu-ray. HD enthusiasts who favored HD DVD without fanboyism will be adopting Blu-ray for the first time or will be buying more Blu-ray than when Blu-ray was their secondary HDM collection after HD DVD. Then, you have online and brick and mortar store advertising and demonstrating Blu-ray. From private demonstrations (consumers who have/soon to have Blu-ray) to store displays, this will draw the curiosity of new adopters, especially those who have already bought HDTV's. You get a combination of advertising and word of mouth along with steady price decreases of players and media from the adoption of Blu-ray. This will drive more people to adopt Blu-ray as an optical format. And as implied earlier, DVD's do not have to be "dead" for blu-ray to succeed. To think so gives the false impression that Blu-ray is destined to fail when in fact Blu-ray is geared towards the HD consumer. The purchase of HDTV's are increasing and will continue to increase which can only help the adoption of Blu-ray as the standards HD optical format.

What I find interesting is these companies are not learning a thing from watching the music industry. Right now they're getting some protection from limited internet bandwidth and storage medium relative to the size of the video files, but it hasn't been very many years since the same situation existed for music. Now music is an almost trivial amount of data to download and store.

But here's the thing. A lot of people such as myself still prefer to listen to music at it's highest quality. Therefore, I still buy CD's because it serves as my master copy of best quality to rip at any rate in whatever format I choose. And it would be wise to back up you downloaded music. Guess what? The pre-recorded CD I bought serves as that as well. Those are the reasons why the CD market is still viable. And how much hard drive space will it take for me to store 30 HD 1080p movies with all the extras? And shouldn't it be best for me to back those up as well? And what if I want to lend out a couple of copies of my movies? Therefore, the pre-recorded optical storage route is still the best option until high capacity optical media burners (like Blu-ray) and high capacity hard drives (terrabytes) are common place in homes, and the super fast internet infrastructure around the world is in place. For the foreseeable future, an optical media such as Blu-ray will do.

But here's the thing. A lot of people such as myself still prefer to listen to music at it's highest quality. Therefore, I still buy CD's because it serves as my master copy of best quality to rip at any rate in whatever format I choose. And it would be wise to back up you downloaded music. Guess what? The pre-recorded CD I bought serves as that as well. Those are the reasons why the CD market is still viable. And how much hard drive space will it take for me to store 30 HD 1080p movies with all the extras? And shouldn't it be best for me to back those up as well? And what if I want to lend out a couple of copies of my movies? Therefore, the pre-recorded optical storage route is still the best option until high capacity optical media burners (like Blu-ray) and high capacity hard drives (terrabytes) are common place in homes, and the super fast internet infrastructure around the world is in place. For the foreseeable future, an optical media such as Blu-ray will do.

In the case of CD you can buy it and play in your high quality equipment but you can also rip it to play into your MP3 player.

If the same could be done with HDM (i.e. rip a 480p to play in legacy DVD's) I would be more likely to purchase. Would be nice too to be able to rip a 1080p to a media server to.

In the case of CD you can buy it and play in your high quality equipment but you can also rip it to play into your MP3 player.

If the same could be done with HDM (i.e. rip a 480p to play in legacy DVD's) I would be more likely to purchase. Would be nice too to be able to rip a 1080p to a media server to.

Yes, I do know I can copy DVD files from a pre-recorded DVD on to my hard drive (as I'm sure we all knew that). Does the same apply for a Blu-ray PC drive, I do not know. But from my point of view, I see it more advantageous to rip from a CD to an mp3 player since mp3 players have already received wide adoption while the portability of a 1080p HDM and its extras still seems to be more convenient on the optical media itself for the time being.

What if studios started pricing the widescreen version of DVD movies closer the HDM price? Anybody know what the mix of Fullscreen to Widescreen DVDs are these days? Many of the people purchasing Widescreen today are ideal candidates for HDM.

Only if the studios (which also sell DVD's) force a switch will it succeed. They must have the will power to do that.

They forced CD's over LP's and cassettes, VHS over Betamax, DVD's over LD's and VHS, etc. etc.

All advertising of videos must make DVD seem like a diminished and less exciting format and put Blu-ray front and center.

The only chance HDM had against DS-DVD was combo format. Produce combo format with few extras on SD side and a rich experience with as many extras that would fit on the HD side. If the studio wanted to really go nuts with a special edition then press it in HD only with two or more discs.

Too bad Blu-Ray can't (to the best of my knowledge) do combo format.

The only chance HDM had against DS-DVD was combo format. Produce combo format with few extras on SD side and a rich experience with as many extras that would fit on the HD side. If the studio wanted to really go nuts with a special edition then press it in HD only with two or more discs.

Too bad Blu-Ray can't (to the best of my knowledge) do combo format.
I think is this is a good idea, but I believe that you can get the same effect by pushing the extras to the Blu-ray disc. There really are a number of subtle things that studios can do to encourage Blu-ray adoption.

Does anyone here honesty thinks in their heart of hearts that in order for Blu-ray to succeed, DVD's must die to be COMPLETELY replaced by Blu-ray? Why, in what time period, and any parallels from past trends that can be drawn from?

Problem is as it continues to remain is the fact the only good Blu-ray device is the PS3.
The standalones suffer from problems that IMO will wind up killing BD!
The players are too expensive and can not be upgraded to future disc specs, as it seems to be a PS3 exclusive.
A Game system is not going to turn people away from their DVD's!

IMO Blu-Ray killed the HDM format ATM, unfortunitly we will have wait for it to be buried untill another format can play with DVD.

HD DVD was the only sure fire bet in getting people closer to HDM media, but Warners gave in too soon as I think they should have waited a bit longer to make their decision.

In my mind, the goal is not to kill DVD. The goal is to get critical mass for Blu-ray adoption. This requires getting a significant number of people to shift their investments from DVD to Blu-ray.

People were weened off of VHS because DVD offered a completely superior experience and especially in one key area: Convenience.

No longer did you have to rewind your tapes.
No longer did you have to mess with your tracking to get the picture right.
No longer did they take up a large amount of space in your movie rack.

Where does bluray offer the same convenient experience over DVD? Improved picture and sound appeals to AV guys, but I don't see it as the DVD replacement that these new Warner Bros moves are trying to usher in.

I agree, plus I also look at it like this...

Take a home CD player and, say, 100 songs (100 CD's), and compare that to an MP3 with 100 songs. Which takes up less room? Big difference.

Take a home DVD player and say, 100 movies, and compare that to a Blu-ray player and, say, 100 movies. Which takes up less room? About the same.

What ever replaces DVD, will not be yet another 5" spinning disc.

Other than lowering the price of the discs to a level comparable with DVD, good luck with that. Once there is 1200+ titles with new releases being under $20-$24 at Best Buy, there is a slight chance it could catch on, but they better hurry up.

Does anyone here honesty thinks in their heart of hearts that in order for Blu-ray to succeed, DVD's must die to be COMPLETELY replaced by Blu-ray? Why, in what time period, and any parallels from past trends that can be drawn from?

I don't think so. BR as a disc format would have been a viable format with the PS3 and PC drives alone. However, I don't believe it will ever get to a point where it will succeed the way DVD did.

I think is this is a good idea, but I believe that you can get the same effect by pushing the extras to the Blu-ray disc. There really are a number of subtle things that studios can do to encourage Blu-ray adoption.

This is true. If the whole industry is pushing a single format they can promote if from a DVD. In fact I think I have already seen that on standard dvd promoting blu-ray and I think that will be effective for sure.

It would have been a lot more effective to tell consumers on the standard dvd how they can unlock and view the hd version of the movie on the disk they already have by simply picking up a low priced player, but the BD will have some success anyway from sheer force of marketing.

At least with dual format discs, it was a possibility that once prices got a little lower, they could stop producing the DVD versions of movies and force people to get the dual format versions, pushing people into having HD media for an easy switch.

With that not as a possibility on bluray discs, how will the companies ween consumers over to HD? People will not want to buy a Disney Bluray disc that cannot play in their kid's room or in the car. I"m sure there are many other movies that will fall under that same criteria.

Can bluray win against DVD without any way to draw consumers away from DVD? At least dual format discs provided a possible way to do it.The more I talk to people, the more I find they really don't give a crap.

Only if the studios (which also sell DVD's) force a switch will it succeed. They must have the will power to do that.

They forced CD's over LP's and cassettes, VHS over Betamax, DVD's over LD's and VHS, etc. etc.

Studios can't "force" a format. That would be suicide. They don't have a desire to force a format either. They just want to sell their content. How that content is delivered to the consumer don't really matter.

The formats you list above were not forced. As consumer demand increased, they fazed out the other format. Had there been no demand, the format wouldn't survive. You can't sell something if there isn't demand.

This is the problem with HDM. The demand has been very low so far. Some are blaming the 2 formats as part of the problem. We'll see if one format will help.

The problem, in my opinion, is that HD DVD was "more" ready for prime time than Blu-ray. It also had an "upgrade" path (combo disc). While I believe that Blu-ray will get there, I hope that it's not to late when it does. Blu-ray's competition isn't DVD now. It's digital media.

My guess is that Blu-ray will become a niche format. A high-end format. There is a market for this and I'm OK with it. For those that want the best picture and sound for the theater room, this is way they'll get. I think the same probably would have happened with HD DVD, but combo disc was the difference. Studios could release one package and satisfy 2 markets.

Now if the BDA manufacturers would just sell a decently priced 2.0 player, I'll be able to jump in (for my non-family movies).

John

Does anyone here honesty thinks in their heart of hearts that in order for Blu-ray to succeed, DVD's must die to be COMPLETELY replaced by Blu-ray? Why, in what time period, and any parallels from past trends that can be drawn from?
Yes. SACD.

In my mind, the goal is not to kill DVD. The goal is to get critical mass for Blu-ray adoption. This requires getting a significant number of people to shift their investments from DVD to Blu-ray.

Right, and this is what I feel the uphil battle will be. Like many of you, I have shown friends and family members my modest yet pretty impressive HD media setup consisting of a plasma TV, PS3, A2, and mid-tier AV PCM receiver with decent speakers. The reaction I get? "Wow, that looks and sounds really nice...cool!".

Then, the conversation quickly changes and noone seems to care *that* much. I try to explain the details and usually hit the "I dont need anything that elaborate" argument or the "Too much money" argument.

We'll see, but if my friends and family are the "norm", we are in for one helluva fight!

do you guys think that Toshiba will ever announce that they lost the format war, because they still have 3 exclusive major studios and if those studios stay with HD DVD then i believe toshiba can stay in it, dual format players can become the norm, and if dual becomes the norm studios can jump back and forth to the other format if they wanted to

i think it all boils down to what the retailers will be able to move.

Yep, same story here. I'm an engineer at a large aircraft company. A majority of the people I work with have HDTV's of some sort, but so far only one of them that I know has bought a HDM player. The rest have the attitude that is being expressed/suggested in this thread. DVD is more than good enough for them (most have sub 50" displays) and pretty much all of them have multiple DVD players (family room, bedroom, kids room, car, computer, etc...).

I think this is the real problem with Blu-Ray. Good business moves may have gotten it ahead of HD DVD, but it cannot and will not replace DVD without combo discs. If Warner was able to put HD DVD and Blu-Ray on one disc, there must be a way to put DVD and Blu-Ray on a disc.

DVD won't go out for quite a while. I used to work at Blockbuster for the past two years and I can't tell you how many people 1) got pissed because we discontinued VHS tapes and 2) JUST bought their first DVD player. Also when we got our first line of HD-DVDs and BRs, people were pretty upset that a new standard was already coming out. "But we just got DVD!!!!".

Our government and cable/satellite companies need to start PUSHING and FORCING HDTVs and HD programming. But that's just my opinion.

Our government and cable/satellite companies need to start PUSHING and FORCING HDTVs and HD programming. But that's just my opinion.
A valid opinion, but do you think that'll ever happen, especially after seeing all the delays and hoops everyone had to jump through just to set a mandatory switch date from NTSC to ATSC?

How about doing more of the same: offer a better product and watch volumes increase and prices decrease. As people buy more HDTVs and replace DVD players, they will buy Blu-Ray. It is a better product and it will soon cost only marginally more than DVD. That's how DVD replaced VHS, CD replaced tapes, etc. There is no hurry now that there is one format. Holiday 2008 will likely be the sweet spot for significant adoption.

This is yet another thread premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray has to completely replace DVD next week or HDM dies. That is false, as is every argument constructed on that erroneous foundation.

After reading pages of posts, I hold to my initial postion. There's no hurry at all and there's little perspective in the days after the Warner announcement but before HD-DVD throws in the towel. Once that happens (and I think it will happen, but we need not discuss it here), and we see a few months of consumer behavior, then we can address this issue with some actual insight.

A valid opinion, but do you think that'll ever happen, especially after seeing all the delays and hoops everyone had to jump through just to set a mandatory switch date from NTSC to ATSC?


Yeah, I know. The government could care less about our entertainment lol.

I'm sorry but HDTVs are CHEAP now, the prices have just dropped like crazy since I was shopping for one back in 2006. I don't understand why anyone could NOT afford one. What's funny is that most people think that the digital switch next year means that people will have to buy a HDTV . . . maybe everybody should be scared into thinking that lol.

Yeah, I know. The government could care less about our entertainment lol.

I'm sorry but HDTVs are CHEAP now, the prices have just dropped like crazy since I was shopping for one back in 2006. I don't understand why anyone could NOT afford one. What's funny is that most people think that the digital switch next year means that people will have to buy a HDTV . . . maybe everybody should be scared into thinking that lol.

one could only hope it would be good for the economy.

Does anyone here honesty thinks in their heart of hearts that in order for Blu-ray to succeed, DVD's must die to be COMPLETELY replaced by Blu-ray? Why, in what time period, and any parallels from past trends that can be drawn from?

Blu-ray will be successful if your view of "success" would cast UMD, SACD, DVD-A, and Laserdisk as successful. However if your view of success suggests that VHS, CD, DVD are successfulm and the others not, than no Blu-ray will not be successul; it is on the fast train to secondary format status.

In Australia around December this was added into the rental racks.
Plays next to the expanding blu ray selection on the new releases wall.
The free 40 page "whats new" magazine at the exit has a full page review on blu ray too.
Hits hd dvd hard and talks of a wonderful selection of blu ray media, players and computer support in Australia.

Could you explain to me what they were talking about where it said HD DVD has only 82 titles available and 44 planned? Where did they come up with that nonsense?

Blu-ray will be successful if your view of "success" would cast UMD, SACD, DVD-A, and Laserdisk as successful. However if your view of success suggests that VHS, CD, DVD are successfulm and the others not, than no Blu-ray will not be successul; it is on the fast train to secondary format status.

i feel toshiba was getting the feeling that HDM was not going to be the next dvd and like you said a secondary format, and they were not willing to pump as much money into it like sony is, why put money into something if you dont feel you will get returns, i feel they had a plan to spend just so much and if it takes off great but if not let the other guy waste his money (sony)

i feel toshiba was getting the feeling that HDM was not going to be the next dvd and like you said a secondary format, and they were not willing to pump as much money into it like sony is, why put money into something if you dont feel you will get returns, i feel they had a plan to spend just so much and if it takes off great but if not let the other guy waste his money (sony)

But to Sony . . . BD represents more than just BD ROM movies. It also represents BD-R/RW and it also represents the successor to their family of Betacam formats, along with being the gaming platform for the PS3

Cassettes had a huge advantage of LPs, size, portability. CDs had a huge advantage over Cassettes, size and quick random accessability.

DVDs had huge advantages over Laserdisc and Video cassette. It was smaller then Laserdisc and more durrable and random access over Video cassette.

Blu ray and HD-DVD are just higher resolution versions of DVDs, that 95% of the TVs people own will NEVER see.

I don't expect any current HD media to succeed by the time technology would make them needed (like a very high light output, very hi definition cheep projector or a cheep light wall sized TV.)

Only if the studios (which also sell DVD's) force a switch will it succeed. They must have the will power to do that.

They forced CD's over LP's and cassettes, VHS over Betamax, DVD's over LD's and VHS, etc. etc.

All advertising of videos must make DVD seem like a diminished and less exciting format and put Blu-ray front and center.

Here's why BD won't likely win against DVD. HD-DVD has already proven that basically the same thing as BD can be done at J6P pricing. Unless the BD community drops pricing inline with SDDVD players people won't make the switch. Espcially now that apparently Toshiba has decided to drop pricing and market as aggressively as they now are. SDDVD has a huge hold on the market. HD *might* make a war of this yet. I dunno, it's too early to call, but I think they made the right steps.

One other thing, those who argue that the HD players won't sell as an upscaler, because there are $29.00 upscalers.... I'm not real sure that argument holds. When you get below the $100 price point, a lot of the time J6P will go ahead and make the jump for better quality, since at that point it's not that expensive. And, there is a difference in the quality of upscaling, too. I have one of the $29.00 Walmart upscalers and it works well for what it is, but it doesn't look as good as the A3's upscaler does. We will have to wait and see. I just hope (like a few others on here) that either these two can both stay and compete or at least one of them makes inroads into the DVD sales at some point, as I really am not a fan of owning stuff on a hard drive alone, like downloads, and I'm afraid that if HD or Blu discs (either one or both formats) don't become the next big thing that downloads will. I personally like being able to hold the media in my hands.

Here's why BD won't likely win against DVD. HD-DVD has already proven that basically the same thing as BD can be done at J6P pricing. Unless the BD community drops pricing inline with SDDVD players people won't make the switch. Espcially now that apparently Toshiba has decided to drop pricing and market as aggressively as they now are. SDDVD has a huge hold on the market. HD *might* make a war of this yet. I dunno, it's too early to call, but I think they made the right steps.

One other thing, those who argue that the HD players won't sell as an upscaler, because there are $29.00 upscalers.... I'm not real sure that argument holds. When you get below the $100 price point, a lot of the time J6P will go ahead and make the jump for better quality, since at that point it's not that expensive. And, there is a difference in the quality of upscaling, too. I have one of the $29.00 Walmart upscalers and it works well for what it is, but it doesn't look as good as the A3's upscaler does. We will have to wait and see. I just hope (like a few others on here) that either these two can both stay and compete or at least one of them makes inroads into the DVD sales at some point, as I really am not a fan of owning stuff on a hard drive alone, like downloads, and I'm afraid that if HD or Blu discs (either one or both formats) don't become the next big thing that downloads will. I personally like being able to hold the media in my hands.
Ah, but also think about if you were able to pay a flat fee per month and access ANY movie you wanted anytime. Technically, it would download, but you wouldn't ever have to maintain your library or worry about your hard drive crashing or if you needed to reformat it for whatever reason. I think that's the business model that Netflix is pursuing. If they can persuade more of the studios to release more of their movies this way, I think they have a good shot at having MUCH greater success at adoption than HDM. It's NOT the A/V quality people care about. It's the convenience and instant gratification factor.

Cassettes had a huge advantage of LPs, size, portability. CDs had a huge advantage over Cassettes, size and quick random accessability.

DVDs had huge advantages over Laserdisc and Video cassette. It was smaller then Laserdisc and more durrable and random access over Video cassette.

Blu ray and HD-DVD are just higher resolution versions of DVDs, that 95% of the TVs people own will NEVER see.

I don't expect any current HD media to succeed by the time technology would make them needed (like a very high light output, very hi definition cheep projector or a cheep light wall sized TV.)

using that statement is just like saying hdtv is just a screen size change and
sharper picture they will not go for it in the end bet they will.

Everyone still has the option to not buy BR at all. Honestly, there is no compelling reason why you should and as it stands to date the average consumer isn't interested either.

using that statement is just like saying hdtv is just a screen size change and
sharper picture they will not go for it in the end bet they will.
To the average consumer, HDTV IS just a screen size change. PLUS, a lighter and more attractive *FLAT* TV. It's a mistake to think that HD resolution was the primary driving force that drew people to large flat screen TV's. I have two friends whose husbands bought an HDTV and are disappointed because people look "short and squat" on their new HDTV's (I tried to explain aspect ratio). But they're happy anyhow because the TV doesn't take up as much room anymore and looks nice in their living room. Obviously, PQ doesn't mean squat to them.

You are making a BIG mistake in assuming that what's obvious to you in terms of superior picture quality, is obvious (or meaningful) to everyone else.

Cassettes had a huge advantage of LPs, size, portability. CDs had a huge advantage over Cassettes, size and quick random accessability.

DVDs had huge advantages over Laserdisc and Video cassette. It was smaller then Laserdisc and more durrable and random access over Video cassette.

Blu ray and HD-DVD are just higher resolution versions of DVDs, that 95% of the TVs people own will NEVER see.

I don't expect any current HD media to succeed by the time technology would make them needed (like a very high light output, very hi definition cheep projector or a cheep light wall sized TV.)
Absolutely right. I don't understand how so many people fail to see this. I can't understand how the big corporations fail to see this. HDM needs to provide more than just better AV quality to succeed over DVD.

i would say from an installers point and i am its 50/50 they like the looks turned off
but the picture in hd was the real selling point because at least half the installations
are not hanging on a wall they just use the stand and replace the old tv/monitor.

using that statement is just like saying hdtv is just a screen size change and
sharper picture they will not go for it in the end bet they will.

There are an aweful lot of 768p plasma owners that picked contrast ratio over LCD brightness and resolution. I think the point is these are reasonable choices. Just as upscaled 480p is a reasonable choice for a lot of people vs. buying incompatible media and repurchasing a media collection.

HDM is an evolutionary change, BD is asking you to pay revolutionary prices (in cost and convenience).

Ah, but also think about if you were able to pay a flat fee per month and access ANY movie you wanted anytime. Technically, it would download, but you wouldn't ever have to maintain your library or worry about your hard drive crashing or if you needed to reformat it for whatever reason. I think that's the business model that Netflix is pursuing. If they can persuade more of the studios to release more of their movies this way, I think they have a good shot at having MUCH greater success at adoption than HDM. It's NOT the A/V quality people care about. It's the convenience and instant gratification factor.

That would work if I were the type of person who rents movies, but I'm not. I purchase mine because most of what I buy is kid-safe stuff and my kids watch them over and over. If I were to rent it would end up costing me more in the long run.

#1 reason why people will give up dvd for blu-ray.

People want choice. DVD doesn’t give you much of that, blu-ray does.

DVD

Equipment:

Players - All dvd players are basically the same, load the disc and hit play. Some have additional features that 95% of consumers don’t know/care about.

TV - Will work with any TV.

AVR – Will work with any AVR.

Movies:

Regular or Special edition. Full or Widescreen. Will work in any dvd, hd dvd or blu-ray player.

Blu-ray

Equipment:

Players - Do I want a cheaper profile 1.0 player, a more expensive 1.1 player that has more interactive features, or should I wait for a 2.0 player and run ethernet to every player I buy. I could buy a PS3 that should be 2.0 capable and theoretically should handle everything with possible exception of DTS-HD MA. Do I need analog outputs for my receiver(if available) to get adv. Audio codecs, if my player even decodes them. Should I get a player with HDMI 1.3 with deep color support so that I can watch the 0 movies that have deep color. Do I want a player that can correctly display full screen video?

Firmware updates.

TV – Will work with any TV.

Need an HDTV for increased resolution, giving you the further choices of 720p, 1080i or 1080p. If the tv I have doesn’t have HDMI input, then I can’t upconvert my SD-DVDs. Also, I can get a TV that accepts 24, 48, 72 or 120 fps.

AVR – Will work with any AVR.

For the advanced audio codecs, need a receiver that has analog inputs, HDMI 1.1, HDMI 1.2 or HDMI 1.3. Do I want the player to decode the audio or the receiver. If the receiver, then it has to have HDMI 1.3 and be able to decode the audio formats.

Movies:

Less choice here, so far only 1 version of each movie, but expect that to change if format survives. Widescreen only. Also, should release future movies with support for different profile players(should work with all players).

Will work in any PS3 or blu-ray compatible player(if it has appropriate version of firmware installed).


Summary: God help me if any of my relatives get interested in this. :D

You are making a BIG mistake in assuming that what's obvious to you in terms of superior picture quality, is obvious (or meaningful) to everyone else.

It IS obvious to most people. I sell TVs and I can tell you that very few people who come through are not blown away by the HD-DVD Greece demo or the BD watchmaking demo when played on a 42"/46" low end-mid range panel. They are not home theater enthusiasts, just regular people and unless they have a vision impairment, they are interested in getting into HD at some point in the future. In less than 2 mintues, I can bring most people up to speed on HD broadcasts, HD-DVD and BD. They are slowly catching on and HD interest has grown exponentially in the last year.

42" panels will be extremely affordible in no time and more accessible to the masses. People will wonder why their DVDs don't look as good as their HD cable or the demos in the store and they will seek out a better signal. Most people would not consider that an HDTV hooked up to a dvd player via composite video looks acceptible. You could argue that lack of product knowledge and high price will slow down adoption, but don't say that 95% of people don't care because that is completely false.

The number one issue is why would J6P want to spend $400 on a player that gives them a selection of 400 some odd titles?

They aren't ready for the big time. Either increase the number of good titles 10 fold or drop the prices of hardware so it falls in-line with a future proof DVD player.

It IS obvious to most people. I sell TVs and I can tell you that very few people who come through are not blown away by the HD-DVD Greece demo or the BD watchmaking demo when played on a 42"/46" low end-mid range panel. They are not home theater enthusiasts, just regular people and unless they have a vision impairment, they are interested in getting into HD at some point in the future. In less than 2 mintues, I can bring most people up to speed on HD broadcasts, HD-DVD and BD. They are slowly catching on and HD interest has grown exponentially in the last year.

42" panels will be extremely affordible in no time and more accessible to the masses. People will wonder why their DVDs don't look as good as their HD cable or the demos in the store and they will seek out a better signal. Most people would not consider that an HDTV hooked up to a dvd player via composite video looks acceptible. You could argue that lack of product knowledge and high price will slow down adoption, but don't say that 95% of people don't care because that is completely false.

When I say that people don't care, I mean that once you reach a certain level of AV quality, other factors become more important (thus, why I put in parentheses - "meaningful"). Namely, price and convenience. Sure, HD movies look great. BUT, DVD movies don't look like crap. And that's the problem. I will put forth this argument: widespread adoption of a new media formats have never occurred SOLELY because of improvement in quality. There is always another driving force - smaller media, instant access/seek, no storage degradation, or less expensive production costs (motivates the studios to promote it more heavily). In the case of BR or HD-DVD, the only real benefit is improved AV quality. It's not enough. I may love it, and so may you, but that doesn't mean the public is willing to plunk down billions to switch over all their DVD's to HDM.

All of my friends have also been blown away by DVD's played on my 50px75u. Not a single one has ever been less than amazed. HD is great, but not great enough that DVD's look like crap by comparison to anyone other than AV geeks. Your selling TV's severely hinders your ability to have objective opinion about this. #1 You chose this job most likely because you're an AV geek, thus things like AV quality matters to you. #2 Your "success" at your job depends upon the public caring about what you sell. #3 You have a VERY biased sampling of the public. Only the people who care about AV are going to come to you about HD stuff. If you took 20 of my friends, only 1 other person has visited a local electronics shop in the past year to look at AV hardware. Anyone else who went there went to pick up batteries, software, or a CD. Most of them got their DVD players as presents or hand-me-downs. If asked what Blu-ray is, would give you a blank stare. If asked about HD-DVD, most of them would proudly claim "I already have DVD's!". What this means is that most people's lives do NOT revolve around HD formats. Just because people like you adn me don't fathom that doesn't mean that HDM is destined to replace DVD's.

Could you explain to me what they were talking about where it said HD DVD has only 82 titles available and 44 planned? Where did they come up with that nonsense?

The main idea is to move blu ray into the home, not educate end users :-)
A "We don't accept your questions. You accept blu ray." type idea.

If lol.

Go see a 60" tv, what would you choose mediocrity or greatness ?

Br is the only choice.

I believe the biggest hurdle we got to get over is people got to have a HDTV in the first place-to even think about getting HDM. I'm serious, most homes still got there DVD players just hooked to the TV( 20,27, maybe32"wow!)-meaning they don't even know about 5.1 yet. I'm talking about -sooner or later they get a HTIB or Bose, something like that hook it up and realize all the new sounds and effects they were missing. Later on the 5.1 sound is dwarfing the TV. Let's get a Big Screen-HiDef is where it's at now at most B&Ms. So modest beginnings 40, maybe 42" HDTV, 5.1 HTIB, thinking this is killer, top of the hill baby. Start reading around, new thing about Blu-Ray and HD DVD, look into that, maybe a past gamer and get add on or PS3 or just plain ole' stand alone player. Learn about real speakers. Upgrade,upgarde, and then...some more up grade.

Something like that? Different order of sequence maybe? But, something like that... right? Then before you know you're AVS member-reader-researcher- something like that right...You've been had, totally sucked in,you're an AV GEEK.




Sound Familiar? Yeah...I know, I know...it takes one to know one. HA

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds

step two, no extras included in dvd versions

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM

Problem is as it continues to remain is the fact the only good Blu-ray device is the PS3.
The standalones suffer from problems that IMO will wind up killing BD!
The players are too expensive and can not be upgraded to future disc specs, as it seems to be a PS3 exclusive.
A Game system is not going to turn people away from their DVD's!

IMO Blu-Ray killed the HDM format ATM, unfortunitly we will have wait for it to be buried untill another format can play with DVD.

HD DVD was the only sure fire bet in getting people closer to HDM media, but Warners gave in too soon as I think they should have waited a bit longer to make their decision.

They waited over a year for HD-DVD to prove it was better and could outsell BD and it never happened, Even this year started off exactly like last year ended with BD winning yet another week.

Does anyone here honesty thinks in their heart of hearts that in order for Blu-ray to succeed, DVD's must die to be COMPLETELY replaced by Blu-ray? Why, in what time period, and any parallels from past trends that can be drawn from?

Of course, just like everyone immediately junked all of their SDTVs when HDTV was introduced since there was no way to gradually increase market share. :rolleyes:

I agree, plus I also look at it like this...

Take a home CD player and, say, 100 songs (100 CD's), and compare that to an MP3 with 100 songs. Which takes up less room? Big difference.

Take a home DVD player and say, 100 movies, and compare that to a Blu-ray player and, say, 100 movies. Which takes up less room? About the same.

What ever replaces DVD, will not be yet another 5" spinning disc.

And your in these forums for what reason then as they deal with HD-DVD and BD spinning disks?

I don't think so. BR as a disc format would have been a viable format with the PS3 and PC drives alone. However, I don't believe it will ever get to a point where it will succeed the way DVD did.

On this I do agree as there are just too many other options in this era. My wife runs a digital arts group, I spend time gaming and surfing, but what time I do spend with movies I want the very best PQ/AQ available and that’s not DVD. I will never buy another DVD again with the exception of some TV on DVDs that will not likely come to BD for years if ever.

On the up side, even if BD hits 50% of parity with what DVD was in 2006, its will be a fantastic success.

Studios can't "force" a format. That would be suicide. They don't have a desire to force a format either. They just want to sell their content. How that content is delivered to the consumer don't really matter.

John

They can do things to promote the format by releasing BD a week earlier than the DVD. This would bring in a certain portion of the “gotta have it now” market. They have already started including a $10.00 rebate coupon on some of the newest BD titles to encourage people to double dip. Sounds like a plan to me…

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds

step two, no extras included in dvd versions

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM

This should be titled, "how studios and CE makers can shoot themselves in the foot" or "how to open the door for digital downloads"

The problem with HDM is it provides no improvement on 75+% percent of the TVs attached to SD DVD players.

Why would someone replace ALL their SD DVD players, TVs with built-in players, and their whole collection of SD DVDs when most of the time they will see no improvement?

btw has anyone seen comparisons of the Oppo SD DVD player vs. HDM on a 720p TV that is less than 42 inches? You may see a little difference, but nothing that will make you want to replace you whole DVD collection and all your DVD players.

do you guys think that Toshiba will ever announce that they lost the format war, because they still have 3 exclusive major studios and if those studios stay with HD DVD then i believe toshiba can stay in it, dual format players can become the norm, and if dual becomes the norm studios can jump back and forth to the other format if they wanted to

That doesn't solve the problem of the studios only having 1/2 as many of their titles avaiable at the B&Ms for sale or rent. Having one format does...

I think this is the real problem with Blu-Ray. Good business moves may have gotten it ahead of HD DVD, but it cannot and will not replace DVD without combo discs. If Warner was able to put HD DVD and Blu-Ray on one disc, there must be a way to put DVD and Blu-Ray on a disc.

The simple solution that works is a two disc pack with BD on one and DVD on the other. If there is demand, there is no reason not to do this. The studios will need to see the demand first though.

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds

step two, no extras included in dvd versions

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM

I still don't think that would do anything but p*ss peoplpe off (step 3 &4). Step one and two are great suggestions, IMHO

First of all, Blu-ray doesn't have to "win against DVD" in order to be successful. As long as Blu-ray is profitable and worth the efforts of movie studios, software developers, and hardware developers, both Blu-ray and DVD's can coexist in the optical media market. Also, the adoption of Blu-ray is like most any other media and product. Those who are on the fence can now feel more confident in buying Blu-ray. HD enthusiasts who favored HD DVD without fanboyism will be adopting Blu-ray for the first time or will be buying more Blu-ray than when Blu-ray was their secondary HDM collection after HD DVD. Then, you have online and brick and mortar store advertising and demonstrating Blu-ray. From private demonstrations (consumers who have/soon to have Blu-ray) to store displays, this will draw the curiosity of new adopters, especially those who have already bought HDTV's. You get a combination of advertising and word of mouth along with steady price decreases of players and media from the adoption of Blu-ray. This will drive more people to adopt Blu-ray as an optical format. And as implied earlier, DVD's do not have to be "dead" for blu-ray to succeed. To think so gives the false impression that Blu-ray is destined to fail when in fact Blu-ray is geared towards the HD consumer. The purchase of HDTV's are increasing and will continue to increase which can only help the adoption of Blu-ray as the standards HD optical format.


You may be right, but that is not what Warner wants. All of the studios want another DVD sized succes.

I still don't think that would do anything but p*ss peoplpe off (step 3 &4). Step one and two are great suggestions, IMHO

well, from a business standpoint, why exactly are you going to make the 8 million + buyers wait for the normal DVD of said "blockbuster" (PotC, Transformers, Bourne, etc)? To make them buy HDM & players? Good luck on that strategy!!

steps 1 and 2 but 3 and 4 would just cause a loss of sale period.

The simple solution that works is a two disc pack with BD on one and DVD on the other. If there is demand, there is no reason not to do this. The studios will need to see the demand first though.

One DVD to give/sell to my friend/stranger who only has DVD and one for me to keep.

HD is the present and future. People will gradually adapt to Blu-ray as they replace DVD players in stores over the next 3-5 years.

It's not that complicated.

True. The approach that the CE industry took was, simply, don't make any more SD sets. When the only choice is HD, that is what you will buy.

The studios after this settles out will eventually have to take the same tack. The average consumer cannot usually be convinced to invest in better quality because it's better; they have to be led to the river AND forced to drink.

One DVD to give/sell to my friend/stranger who only has DVD and one for me to keep.

That's why it will never be done. It could have been accomplished by HD (one one disc) DVD, but not BD. THat's because the studios fear you buying the package and selling or giving away the second disc, thereby stopping a potential sale.

... the studios fear you buying the package and selling or giving away the second disc, thereby stopping a potential sale.

and here is the real reason of no double disc of different medium. Not because of higher price. No. A sale is ultimately LOST.

well, from a business standpoint, why exactly are you going to make the 8 million + buyers wait for the normal DVD of said "blockbuster" (PotC, Transformers, Bourne, etc)? To make them buy HDM & players? Good luck on that strategy!!

Because you could. How's that causing a customer to not buy at all? Little Susie still wants Cars2.

yeah that never happened to vhs millions out there ,now look at the retailers shelves
not a one to be found.maybe a combo vhs/dvd and in most cases 2 of those.

True. The approach that the CE industry took was, simply, don't make any more SD sets. When the only choice is HD, that is what you will buy.

The studios after this settles out will eventually have to take the same tack. The average consumer cannot usually be convinced to invest in better quality because it's better; they have to be led to the river AND forced to drink.

Not a valid comparison. TVs are a totally different transition and are also backed by a government mandate that SD OTA is going away. CE's had nothing to do with forcing the issue.

Not a valid comparison. TVs are a totally different transition and are also backed by a government mandate that SD OTA is going away. CE's had nothing to do with forcing the issue.

thats not completly true i don't see anymore 480p plasmas they have all
gone to 768p or 1080p.

Not a valid comparison. TVs are a totally different transition and are also backed by a government mandate that SD OTA is going away. CE's had nothing to do with forcing the issue.

well i was chewing on this and this is still not going to push HD anything much.


A new tv is what? Say $700 start?

Old tv stil in my house.

No thanks to the goverment I get two $40 coupons off a Digital to Analog convertor box

https://www.dtv2009.gov/VendorSearch.aspx
http://www.ntia.doc.gov/otiahome/dtv/

If I have cable, most will not switch to the digital so I don't have to change a thing.

Let say that the reciever costs $200 - $40 = $160. Hmm $160 or $700. Yeah do the math. Literally.

With the ushering in of an all digital TV landscape next year, the proliferation of very affordable plasmas and LCD HDTVs that get more affordable every year, the masses will slowly migrate to the new hi-def format. In addition, like all things electronic, the prices will fall so that the mass market the industry seeks to sell to will be ready and willing with wallets opened. Having a single hi-def format will no doubt help. Even if you hate Sony they will continue to be a big player. However, the timing of all this is up for speculation. It won't happen over night, not many technological changes do. Personally, I suspect it will take upwards to 10 more years before there's a mass adoption to HD. And by then Hollywood will be competing with itself and DRM ladened downloads brought to your front door via a fiber-optic link or beamed to your iPod or cell phone via satellite. :eek:

One DVD to give/sell to my friend/stranger who only has DVD and one for me to keep.

Yet another incentive to purchase HDM, and since HD's are such as small part of the market, then no real harm done by you giving away a DVD.

Once HDM has grown to be a sizable part of the market, then players should be cheap enough to drop the dual disc format.

Another method is to give you credit for having both as we are seeing now with Con Air and the Rock having $10 rebate cuopons.

...no real harm done by you giving away a DVD.

The studio's lawyers would like to talk to you.
Its people like this that stopped studios from having the FS version of a film on one disc and the WS version on another.

Not a valid comparison. TVs are a totally different transition and are also backed by a government mandate that SD OTA is going away. CE's had nothing to do with forcing the issue.

The only difference is the impetus behind the manufacturer's decision. The government forcing the issue is different than a combined effort by the industry to purge SD from the roster.

Going back to the original question this thread.

If bluray wins, how will they ween users off of DVD's?

I think Toshiba is going to do it for us with out realizing they are doing it. The truth is they have just declared war on the DVD manufactures. Mostly they are gunning at the upconverters right now. But are the high end guys going to take it laying down? I doubt it. They are going to start cutting prices and fighting back.

There is still some profit on the top end models. But if they cut prices they are going to put pressure on the bottom feeders who are already making almost nothing and in some cases are loosing money and are starting to get out of making DVD players.

So you are a CE manufacturer and it isn't profitable to make DVD players any more so you set your sights on the next thing which is either BD or HD DVD. Toshiba has allready permanently destroyed any chance of any one else getting into manufacturing for HD-DVD so it is a sure bet they will go with BD. When they do that and stop producing DVD players you have fewer people buying DVDs and Toshiba is no longer making the royalties off of DVD meaning they have less money to keep proping up HD-DVD.

That is my thought.

I still don't think that would do anything but p*ss peoplpe off (step 3 &4). Step one and two are great suggestions, IMHO


Let me explain...

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds
customer sees the new movie he wants on the shelf, only it's the HDM version..."oh man! this is that movie I've been waiting for...dang the dvd version isn't out yet"

step two, no extras included in dvd versions
customer looks at the package of the HDM version and notices it comes packed with extras the dvd version won't have..."that's kinda neat, but I don't have a player"

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions
customer notices a decline in picture quality..."This doesn't look anywhere near as good as it did over my friend's house with his HDM version"

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM
customer has to pay as much for the dvd version, if not more, than the HDM version..."what a rip-off...I'll just wait til I can afford a player and get the HDM version instead of the DVD"

...customer is now weened.

steps 1 and 2 but 3 and 4 would just cause a loss of sale period.
The profit from one HDM sale may be equal to two or three DVD sales, so the loss of some sales may be justified.

Let me explain...

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds
customer sees the new movie he wants on the shelf, only it's the HDM version..."oh man! this is that movie I've been waiting for...dang the dvd version isn't out yet"

step two, no extras included in dvd versions
customer looks at the package of the HDM version and notices it comes packed with extras the dvd version won't have..."that's kinda neat, but I don't have a player"

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions
customer notices a decline in picture quality..."This doesn't look anywhere near as good as it did over my friend's house with his HDM version"

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM
customer has to pay as much for the dvd version, if not more, than the HDM version..."what a rip-off...I'll just wait til I can afford a player and get the HDM version instead of the DVD"

...customer is now weened.

I think most of the above would

a) not increase HDM sales by anything more than 5-10%
b) decrease DVD sales by about 40%

Not a good marketing strategy.

The studios want HDM to win, just not at the expense of their profits.

They want the person who was buying the $19 DVD to now buy the $29 HDM disc... they don't want to lose ANY sales.

They would rather sell ther DVD than not sell anything.

I thought the goal was to decrease DVD sales by 100%--ie ween customers off of DVD. The process I described would be done in steps gradually over a period of time. By the time step 3 is reached, most people would be wanting an HDM player, but perhaps it's not in their budget, but when they reach step 4, DVD just tastes so bad that getting an HDM player has become somewhat of a priority...hopefully by the time that happens, they are affordable enough that anyone can get one.

There really is no reason for Toshiba to abandon HD-DVD, especially since a billion Chinese will be in the market for their format for a long time to come. Meanwhile, since the DVD Forum approved HD-DVD to be the official HDM media, all they have to do is convince SD DVD manufacturers to adopt the HD-DVD format as an added feature to their premium DVD players. So when J6P comes to BB to look for a new SD DVD player he will have several to choose from that also play HD-DVD for just $25-$50 more than the cheapo model (plus maybe a few fee HD-DVD titles). Eventually the studios will see that HD-DVD is not only here to stay but is really replacing the SD-DVD players in a lot of households. I think they will then see their BR-only decision in a whole new light, especially if BR players are still selling north of $300!

Stardust at Amazon maybe the way to go?
- $19.99 DVD Widescreen
- $25.99 DVD Fullscreen
- $22.49 HD DVD

By selling the HD version for just 2.50 more than Widescreen and pricing higher the Fullscreen, people will get used to OAR widescreen format and forget about the 4:3 format, because DVD Fullscreen is for 4:3 sets, people with new widescreen displays will look at a fullscreen but distorted.

I hope no one give them the idea to start releasing 16:9 fullscreen version of the movies and end with 2 HDM releases, one with OAR and the other to fill the screen (no black bars version) to please the TV series crowd that they watch ER, lost and 24 without black bars.

I am just waiting for the chuckleheads who bought 4:3 DVDs because they "hated the black bars" start watching those movies on their shiny new WIDESCREEN TVs. I bet they'll stretch the picture to hell...P&S is the bastard red-headed step-child that should've been thrown off the cliff 20 years ago!

Let me explain...

how to ween off of dvd:

step one, release hdm versions a few weeks ahead of dvds
customer sees the new movie he wants on the shelf, only it's the HDM version..."oh man! this is that movie I've been waiting for...dang the dvd version isn't out yet"

step two, no extras included in dvd versions
customer looks at the package of the HDM version and notices it comes packed with extras the dvd version won't have..."that's kinda neat, but I don't have a player"

step three, poor transfer quality and encoding on dvd versions
customer notices a decline in picture quality..."This doesn't look anywhere near as good as it did over my friend's house with his HDM version"

step four, raise dvd prices higher than HDM
customer has to pay as much for the dvd version, if not more, than the HDM version..."what a rip-off...I'll just wait til I can afford a player and get the HDM version instead of the DVD"

...customer is now weened.

The danger that any industry faces when they try to "force" something that too large a portion of the market is against, is that someone else will inevitably come along to serve that large unmet demand.

This creates an "underground" or "black" market.

If tons of users around the world want something and are willing to pay for it then someone will get it too them. This is especially true in the internet age where the laws of other countries can break down the carefully crafted agreements of others.

There is already a massive market of pirated DVDs. Want to make that bigger by taking away and/or dumbing down the legitimate on the shelf stuff?
There's already DVD players sold that don't carry the official DVD license. Who's going to make Chinese vendors go along with 'the plan'.

Weening only works if the weener doesn't kick, scream and rebel.

My suggestion:

1. Continue to release new movies day and date with DVD
2. Continue to release new hardware options
3. Continue to advertise advantages of Blu-Ray (including support for DVD)

Wait.

Also, though less importantly: continue bundling Blu-Ray with HDTVs; continue downward pressure on both hardware and discs

That's it.

There really is no reason for Toshiba to abandon HD-DVD, especially since a billion Chinese will be in the market for their format for a long time to come. Meanwhile, since the DVD Forum approved HD-DVD to be the official HDM media, all they have to do is convince SD DVD manufacturers to adopt the HD-DVD format as an added feature to their premium DVD players. So when J6P comes to BB to look for a new SD DVD player he will have several to choose from that also play HD-DVD for just $25-$50 more than the cheapo model (plus maybe a few fee HD-DVD titles). Eventually the studios will see that HD-DVD is not only here to stay but is really replacing the SD-DVD players in a lot of households. I think they will then see their BR-only decision in a whole new light, especially if BR players are still selling north of $300!
In reality, 1 billion Chinese can't afford these type of luxuries.

They will most likely upgrade their VCD players to DVD players and see enough improvement to justify the cost of a new player and discs. Hi Definition anything won't be necessary in China for 5-10 years.

The transition to BD will be extremely easy. All the companies have to do is simply stop producing DVD players. The fact is all BD players ARE combo players. They play both dvds and bd's. If people can only by BD players, then they are naturally going to buy BD's due to the better quality. Sure they'll keep buying some DVD's but eventually BD's will get cheaper to produce and sell.

Stardust at Amazon maybe the way to go?
- $19.99 DVD Widescreen
- $25.99 DVD Fullscreen
- $22.49 HD DVD

By selling the HD version for just 2.50 more than Widescreen and pricing higher the Fullscreen, people will get used to OAR widescreen format and forget about the 4:3 format, because DVD Fullscreen is for 4:3 sets, people with new widescreen displays will look at a fullscreen but distorted.

I hope no one give them the idea to start releasing 16:9 fullscreen version of the movies and end with 2 HDM releases, one with OAR and the other to fill the screen (no black bars version) to please the TV series crowd that they watch ER, lost and 24 without black bars.

Its about time we address the question "If Wide-screen wins, how will they ween users off of Full screen DVD's? ". Its been 10 years and everone still sells those darn things. Don't people realize there is no room for 2 formats?:D

DVD is here to stay. There will never be the content on either or both of the present formats that there is on DVD, and even if there is one format (or both) HDM penetration will most likely never be above 30% or so. HDM companies need to concentrate or providing new and classic movies in high quality and forget about getting rid DVD.

My suggestion:

1. Continue to release new HDM day and date with DVD
- Only include trailors and main movie on DVD
- Market the video/audio and the enhanced features (deleted scenes, making of, directors comments, web-enabled etc) of HDM
- Include ability to rip a 420p version from the HDM to a PC for burning onto a DVD (via the Internet port would be nice) or include a bare bones 420p DVD with 'not for resale' stamped on it.

2. Continue to release new hardware options
- need to have a low end SAL 720p/1080i P2.0 plaver under $200 to appeal to the masses
- need to have SAL 1080p P2.0 players from a range of manufactures with all bells & whistles that the more picky AV crowd want.

The transition to BD will be extremely easy. All the companies have to do is simply stop producing DVD players. The fact is all BD players ARE combo players. They play both dvds and bd's. If people can only by BD players, then they are naturally going to buy BD's due to the better quality. Sure they'll keep buying some DVD's but eventually BD's will get cheaper to produce and sell.

oooh, good plan. People really don't like to only spend $19 for DVD players at Walmart. The would prefer to spend more than 10x that for a BD player that looks the same on their SD TV.

Why don't comapnies just add better scaling chips to the SD DVD players. Then we wouldn't need to be weened!:D

The transition to BD will be extremely easy. All the companies have to do is simply stop producing DVD players. The fact is all BD players ARE combo players. They play both dvds and bd's. If people can only by BD players, then they are naturally going to buy BD's due to the better quality. Sure they'll keep buying some DVD's but eventually BD's will get cheaper to produce and sell.But they won't stop selling DVD players - not as long as people are willing to buy them. Just as they still make and sell VCRs.

You are thinking that the only manufacturers of DVD players are the blu-ray CEs when in fact most DVD players are made in China. They will make as long as people will buy. And there are a few hundred million DVD players out there that will last another 10 years.

And I don't see BD player pricing coming down that quickly - Sony has a lot of money to recoup. Problem is their window is shrinking.

But they won't stop selling DVD players - not as long as people are willing to buy them. Just as they still make and sell VCRs.

You are thinking that the only manufacturers of DVD players are the blu-ray CEs when in fact most DVD players are made in China. They will make as long as people will buy. And there are a few hundred million DVD players out there that will last another 10 years.

And I don't see BD player pricing coming down that quickly - Sony has a lot of money to recoup. Problem is their window is shrinking.

Stop making them? They are creating a whole new generation of them. Toshiba in a great position on this. If they stop selling upscalers over $100 and make people buy HD DVD players, and offer them the opportunity to buy HD if they want to.

There really is no reason for Toshiba to abandon HD-DVD, especially since a billion Chinese will be in the market for their format for a long time to come. Meanwhile, since the DVD Forum approved HD-DVD to be the official HDM media, all they have to do is convince SD DVD manufacturers to adopt the HD-DVD format as an added feature to their premium DVD players. So when J6P comes to BB to look for a new SD DVD player he will have several to choose from that also play HD-DVD for just $25-$50 more than the cheapo model (plus maybe a few fee HD-DVD titles). Eventually the studios will see that HD-DVD is not only here to stay but is really replacing the SD-DVD players in a lot of households. I think they will then see their BR-only decision in a whole new light, especially if BR players are still selling north of $300!
I wonder what percentage of Chinese have HDTVs?

I wonder what percentage of Chinese have HDTVs?

The chinese players for their local markets chose AVS as their codec to avoid paying for any MPEG2 or AVC or VC-1 royalties. The chipset they use will not have MPEG2 or AVC or VC-1 decoding.

As to why they think AVS can avoid the fundamental patents that are ingrained deep in the existing codecs since mpeg1 when they're so similar, that's something for the legal and political entities to work out.

The same way people were "weened" off of VHS?

I'm not quite sure most folks percieve as much of a difference between HD/Blu and SD-DVD as they did between DVD and VHS.
To many its still just a movie on disc.
I'm still amazed and saddened by the people who still want/buy their DVD's in Full Frame:eek::confused:

funny thing about technology it marches on and eventually its widely accepted just
look around .

oooh, good plan. People really don't like to only spend $19 for DVD players at Walmart. The would prefer to spend more than 10x that for a BD player that looks the same on their SD TV.

Why don't comapnies just add better scaling chips to the SD DVD players. Then we wouldn't need to be weened!:D

Have you ever tried to watch DVD's on those $19 DVD players? After returning 4 of them I bet you'll stick your $190 HD player.