BD winning the hd battle is not all its cracked up to be. The general public is where the real money is at and given these factors IMO, HD as an optical transport will always be a niche/enthusiast market and will not replace DVD:

1) To most, a $79 up converting DVD player is good enough
2) Not enough HDTV's to satisfy the studios
3) Replication costs
4) Time...by the time people can see(see 2 above) what thier missing the studios will have a number of ways to get HD...VOD,Cable,PPV and Xbox live that the marketplace for HD will be fractured and not have a single dominating entity carrying it.
5) Lack of feasible DRM/Copy protection that doesn't get broken-studios will realize that selling physical media is not as profitable as other means but wont drop it they will continue to diversify.

When its all said and done the best possible method will be optical disc but it wont be the only method. If you cant convince the general public that BD/HD DVD is better than DVD and worth it how will you convince them that the DD 5.1 and 720p movie they just watched on netflix is far worse?

You wont.

So, HD DVD might be dead but the disc's will still play just like the BD ones. I will keep my A2 and buy a Samsung 5500 when it comes out as soon as it hits $400-what I paid for my A2- and enjoy all my HD DVD;s and BD on one machine; that is if the studios still make either in 5 years.:)

You may be right, but I think HDM could become a 25% market niche with 2x the unit margins of DVD. Sounds like a sustainable business model to me.

Blu-ray disc is going to be a MAJOR problem for the buy/trade/rental industries. It is an unrepairable format. The CEO of VenMill Industries (http://www.venmill.com/) stated in the Winnipeg Free Press (Page E5, Nov 15, 2006) that "In the USA there's a billion dollar buy-sell industry around computer games. I do not know how they're going to face the reality that Blu-Ray is an unrepairable format." This might not be much of a problem right now, but in a couple of years as people start to accidentally scratch their Blu-ray discs, whether owned or rented -- and yes they scratch despite a resistant coating -- there will be quite an uproar due to this "oversight."

I guess it's a good thing that they have a protective coating then...kind of cancels out a lot of those repairs that are needed for DVD/HD DVD. :rolleyes:

People were saying the same thing about DVD 10 years ago.

Oh good, another doom and gloom thread.

Again, this is premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray must convert everyone from DVD to Blu-Ray by tomorrow. That is silly. With one format, there is plenty of time. People will buy when they get HDTVs and replace DVD players. And they'll buy more and with confidence now that there will be one format. Volume will increase, costs will decrease, and prices will drop, as they always do. The sweet spot will be Holiday 2008.

There's no hurry. It took years for DVD to replace VHS.

I guess it's a good thing that they have a protective coating then...kind of cancels out a lot of those repairs that are needed for DVD/HD DVD. :rolleyes:
The protective coating is for one thing only, and that is to protect the data layer. Since it is only 0.1 mm, once this is scratched it is near impossible to resurface. And there is no data yet on how viable the coating will perform over time.

Oh good, another doom and gloom thread.

Again, this is premised on the false assumption that Blu-Ray must convert everyone from DVD to Blu-Ray by tomorrow. That is silly. With one format, there is plenty of time. People will buy when they get HDTVs and replace DVD players. And they'll buy more and with confidence now that there will be one format. Volume will increase, costs will decrease, and prices will drop, as they always do. The sweet spot will be Holiday 2008.

There's no hurry. It took years for DVD to replace VHS.

While I agree with you, I didnt say they had to turn everyone in 1 day or even a year. I base my theory on the list of factors involved and the biggest 1 being HDTV's in peoples homes. BD has really 3 or 4 battles to fight...DVD,HD DVD.a little, VOD and Downloads. I am just saying it will be very hard to be like dvd is now....:)

I see more positives than negatives.

-HDTV sales are going strong and will only continue to flourish with Sanyo, Vizio etc selling to the masses (heck, one of these might do very well in my bedroom).
-It looks like we are almost set to have one format so Sony et al can start up their marketing machine in earnest (versus SD instead of HD-DVD and SD-DVD).
-Pricing will only improve in time. I paid almost $500 for my first DVD player in 2000. Heck, we are already ahead of that and with Chinese players coming the mainstream brands can't charge triple. So, $300-$400 players will be here with sub $300 Chinese players.
-The scratch proof coating should be a boon and not a nuisance to most rental outlets. You should see the number of DVDs that get scraped by my local Video King here in town. Even if HD-DVD had of survived this war the BLu-Ray scratch coat is a great idea they should have considered copying/adopting.
-Disc production prices are high (compared to DVD) and yields may not be there yet. In time more and more plants will get installed to meet demand and this will lower unit costs and increase yields. I'm sure there were teething problems with DVD in the early days.
-Not every CD product will follow DVD's cycle. VCRs took a long time to take off. 1080p will/should be the standard for HD for quite a while. If it takes 4-5 years for BLu-Ray to take off then that is what it takes.
-Downloads need bandwidth and no caps to be really effective. Here in Canada many ISPs are putting monthly caps on their packages (typically 60 Gigs) and are hard pressed to handle the present traffic. While I can see a download future for HD I don't see it soon enough to really hurt BLu-Ray's adoption in the coming years.

In short I see far more positives than negative. Like LD was niche and DVD was mainstream I see D-VHS as niche and BLu-Ray as mainstream. The player pricing is coming. Just make sure to run BOGOs from time to time and have $15-$20 catalogue stuff. The recipe for success is here. It is way to early to panic. The "war" was/is the main problem getting the next wave of adopters in. We are on our way to fixing this big mistake.

Now onto marketing, stabilizing the format, and enjoying HDM!:)

You may be right, but I think HDM could become a 25% market niche with 2x the unit margins of DVD. Sounds like a sustainable business model to me.

25% percent sounds logical....But the prices of the media will have to come down dont you agree?

I mean we are talking the general public who still think that HDMI is a branch of the military.:)

The number of HDTVs is increasing all the time.
Replication costs will soon be relatively trivial, if they are not already.
Downloads and other delivery options are far from imminent.

Let's see where it stands in six months.

BD winning the hd battle is not all its cracked up to be. The general public is where the real money is at and given these factors IMO, HD as an optical transport will always be a niche/enthusiast market and will not replace DVD:

1) To most, a $79 up converting DVD player is good enough
2) Not enough HDTV's to satisfy the studios
3) Replication costs
4) Time...by the time people can see(see 2 above) what thier missing the studios will have a number of ways to get HD...VOD,Cable,PPV and Xbox live that the marketplace for HD will be fractured and not have a single dominating entity carrying it.
5) Lack of feasible DRM/Copy protection that doesn't get broken-studios will realize that selling physical media is not as profitable as other means but wont drop it they will continue to diversify.

When its all said and done the best possible method will be optical disc but it wont be the only method. If you cant convince the general public that BD/HD DVD is better than DVD and worth it how will you convince them that the DD 5.1 and 720p movie they just watched on netflix is far worse?

You wont.

So, HD DVD might be dead but the disc's will still play just like the BD ones. I will keep my A2 and buy a Samsung 5500 when it comes out as soon as it hits $400-what I paid for my A2- and enjoy all my HD DVD;s and BD on one machine; that is if the studios still make either in 5 years.:)



Nah, I think your wrong about this one.

Better PQ is coming for everyone whether they like it or not.:p That's just going to be the natural progression of this technology.

Soon, HD media and hardware will be nearly as affordable as DVD. When that happens, HD functionality will be included in all new players. Some people will upgrade their old players/collections perhaps without even noticing. They will buy a new "DVD" player and perhaps not be aware that the new unit also plays Blu-Rays.:p

-The scratch proof coating should be a boon and not a nuisance to most rental outlets. You should see the number of DVDs that get scraped by my local Video King here in town. Even if HD-DVD had of survived this war the BLu-Ray scratch coat is a great idea they should have considered copying/adopting.
DVDs and HD DVDs can get scratched and resurfaced numerous times, Blu-ray discs cannot be resurfaced at all. Since the data on DVD an HD DVD is six times deeper than Blu-ray discs, Blu-rays playback will be more adversely affected by smaller scratches than DVDs or HD DVDs would be since the laser on BD players needs to read data that is so close to the scratch. I'm very interested to see how this plays out, and I'm willing to bet that this will be a major issue for Blu-ray at some point.

I for one don't think it would be such a bad thing for it to be niche provided the studios still catered to enthusiasts. We'd really need to define niche though, does it mean 1% or can it be up to 10%? At what price point would they need to sell the goods to continue supporting a limited market in light of the cash cow that is DVD?

DVD is everywhere, it won't be easy to supplant. It may not be necessary to do so. (Do we really need 1080p in the car?)

HDM on the other hand requires much more complex players... players that require updates from time to time to get right. Will there ever be a time when firmware updates are no longer necessary? If not then I really doubt HDM can replace DVD.

HDM will in all likelihood coexist with DVD. Which isn't a bad thing because it means people with limited funds can still enjoy the movies (which many will agree is the main point really) while those that want to enjoy the movies in their own home to it's fullest extent (limited by their equipment of course) can stretch a little and get a HD copy. Kind of like how you can go to the cinemas and pay regular prices or pay a bit more for Gold class and have comfy chairs and dining facilities - not a perfect analogy given the PQ/AQ is the same, but you know what I mean.

I remember the days of LD, I didnt care that others didn't invest in it, I just knew that I appreciated the quality improvement and there was enough content to satisfy me, for the things that I could not obtain, there was VHS or the cinema. I wasn't going to not watch a movie I was interested in simply because I could not obtain it on LD. Most of the time though, I found more than enough titles to satisfy my curiosity, I rarely rented VHS.

Blu-ray disc is going to be a MAJOR problem for the buy/trade/rental industries. It is an unrepairable format. Interestingly enough, all the Netflix Blu-rays I've received have had flawless data surfaces.

Something to keep in mind, though, especially considering how expensive Blu-ray discs are.

I can't wait for the day you own and use a blu-ray player. If I looked up fanboy in the dictionary there would your name written in big BOLD letters. You are a pathetic person, and you live a pathetic life.

Dude, give him a break, he is paid by microsoft to post this type of material against sony on various forums under different names. He is just doing his job, geeze.

Dude, give him a break, he is paid by microsoft to post this type of material against sony on various forums under different names. He is just doing his job, geeze.

You know...there are people that are actually paid and not paid to do exactly that. We live in a sad society.

DVDs and HD DVDs can get scratched and resurfaced numerous times, Blu-ray discs cannot be resurfaced at all. Since the data on DVD an HD DVD is six times deeper than Blu-ray discs, Blu-rays playback will be more adversely affected by smaller scratches than DVDs or HD DVDs would be since the laser on BD players needs to read data that is so close to the scratch. I'm very interested to see how this plays out, and I'm willing to bet that this will be a major issue for Blu-ray at some point.

In my mind, the question isn't really whether BD discs can be resurfaced or not. Based on what we know, it can't be. The more valid question should be, "Would the typical abuse that requires DVDs and HD-DVDs to be resurfaced in the first place be enough to render a Blu-ray disc unplayable?" Sure, with enough effort it's possible to destroy anything. Even DVDs and HD-DVDs have a limit to what can be repaired. But given the same treatment, how many rental cycles could a Blu-ray pass through compared to a DVD or HD-DVD (even allowing for resurfacing) before it's a write-off.

I hope that someday soon, some reputable neutral party will do a definitive scientific test to measure the durability and longevity of the hardcoat surfacing on BD discs under varying user conditions.

We should also consider the possibility that the hardcoating technology currently used on BDs might be improved further over time. It is after all a relatively new technology for optical discs.

You know...there are people that are actually paid and not paid to do exactly that. We live in a sad society.

You really can't tell anymore.. That's why viral marketing works I guess.

Wish the mods would stop the madness though.

Soon, HD media and hardware will be nearly as affordable as DVD. When that happens, HD functionality will be included in all new players. Some people will upgrade their old players/collections perhaps without even noticing. They will buy a new "DVD" player and perhaps not be aware that the new unit also plays Blu-Rays.:p

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Exactly.

-Downloads need bandwidth and no caps to be really effective. Here in Canada many ISPs are putting monthly caps on their packages (typically 60 Gigs) and are hard pressed to handle the present traffic. While I can see a download future for HD I don't see it soon enough to really hurt BLu-Ray's adoption in the coming years.

"300" in HD can be found on 50Gig blu-ray, 30Gig HD DVD or ~5Gig Xbox Live, so you see that HD can be of different sizes.

The main reason movie companies would like to get online is so that consumers can more easily find and buy the movies they want, the bandwidth is not the deal breaker here, many people would be perfectly happy with a 5Gig movie. The CE companies however sell hardware, so optical discs is just a way of motivating their hardware.

Movie companies are not tech companies, so they must choose between software companies like Apple and Microsoft, or hardware companies like Sony and Toshiba, to get their movies out on the market. In theory, the optimal sales can only be found online, so movie studios will eventually get there when the service is holistic enough.

Resurface or not? Are you kidding me? I am sure there are some on this forum that have by the nature of the forum, but please I don't know anyone who has resurfaced DVD's. If they wanted it to play properly at 10-20 dollars they bought a new one.

Resurface or not? Are you kidding me? I am sure there are some on this forum that have by the nature of the forum, but please I don't know anyone who has resurfaced DVD's. If they wanted it to play properly at 10-20 dollars they bought a new one.It is a lot more widespread than what you say. Most anytime a person buys a used DVD from a video rental store -- the store runs the disc through the re-surfacing machine before giving it to the customer.

Others have reported that they can take their problem discs into a video rental store and have them re-surface the disc for a couple of bucks.

Anecdote wars. ugh!

Getting back to the OP .....

I would have said it a bit differently, that HDM and DVD clearly will co-exist for many years. I think HDM can become much more than a niche format, but clearly growth in bigger-screen HDTVs is required. Eventually hidef will rplace NTSC, either through HDM or downloads. It is inevitable!

The sky is falling....unless consumers PREFER optical media to downloads so they have something to show to their friends and lend etc....which is my view is very likely

MS and Toshiba planned for downloads but limiting the bit rate on HD DVD. A lower bit rate meant that streaming was more feasible. The plan seems to have been put off a bit now with the defection of Warner but it will surface again to be sure.

Because my wife watches a crap load of SD off our DirecTiVos, I had to pay particular attention to and spend additioinal money for a display that looked good with SD. Most do not, and when J6P plugs in that el crappo DVD player he is going to be sorely disappointed with his new technology. The guy down the street will tell him to get HDM and game over for DVD in a few years.

I mean we are talking the general public who still think that HDMI is a branch of the military.:)

OK, that made me laugh pretty hard, thanks :)

OK, that made me laugh pretty hard, thanks :)


I am not putting them down its just that we need to be realistic....most people dont care about this stuff and dont want the hassle.....unless its cheap.:)